Academic literature on the topic 'Export demand assessment'

The relevance of the article is due to the importance of the development of export of high-processing industries. Objective: to develop methodological support for assessing the neo-industrial export specialization of regions and its determining factors. The research methods included identifying potential assessment parameters and testing their applicability based on the analysis of economic development statistics of the region selected as an example. The proposed methodological support for the assessment of neo-industrial export specialization includes its integral assessment, assessment of goods and services, assessment of the contribution of the high-tech component to the change in exports, ranking of regions by absolute values of high-tech exports. The method of assessing the factors of neo-industrial export specialization involves the assessment of indicators that identify these factors of exo-and endogenous order – the development of manufacturing production, innovation potential, transport potential, the development of the export support system, and the international demand for the region's products. The practical significance of the proposed methodological support lies in the fact that it makes it possible to analyze the neo-industrial export specialization of Russian regions and the factors of its development, and to identify and analyze possible directions of development in this area.

The objective of the article was to examine the level of diversification of the energy balance and energy export demand, as well as its impacts on economic growth to ensure energy security in Azerbaijan. Forthe research, the Risk Energy Export Demand Index and its four sub-indexes, i.e.,1) export dependence, were used; 2) risk of monopsonium; (3) the risk of transaction costs; 4) Comparative quantitative assessment of the economic importance of different types of energy in the country's energy exports. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index and the Shannon-Wiener index were used for the assessment of the diversification and concentration rate. The OLS method, the ADF test and cointegration were used to assess the relationship between indicators. It is concluded that the share ofenergy obtained from renewable sources in the country's energy balance is very low (about 3%), and the energy obtained from these sources is mainly used for electricity production. Since an essential part of the country's energy balance is in hydrocarbon reserves, the level of diversification is low.

An Assessment of Output Performance in Northern CyprusThis paper mainly attempts to investigate empirically the Northern Cyprus output performance by using a panel data method for the period 1977-2005. A supplementary aim is to assess the impact of export orientation on the Northern Cyprus output level. Empirical results suggest that investment, employment and export variables significantly and positively affect the sectoral production increases in Northern Cyprus. Among other variables, exports of goods and services exert considerable affects on the sectoral production in the case of Northern Cyprus economy. Therefore, it can be suggested that a production structure mostly dependent on foreign demand makes it easier to overcome the restrictions originating from the insufficiency of the domestic market through creating new employment opportunities for highly qualified labor force and additional production capacity with productive investments. Moreover, exports have the potential to rise total factor productivities, and hence, to improve output expansion of the country further. In short, one may propose that outward orientation seems to be relevant in achieving higher levels of output in the case of the Northern Cyprus economy.

We made an attempt to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of Russian Federation, based on estimates of domestic demand decrease for each of the 98 industries (products) identified in the system of input-output tables. The analysis was carried out in the context of identifying two key factors of demand changes: lockdown measures that directly limit domestic demand, as well as global oil prices, leading to a reduction in export income of the economy and a subsequent reduction in demand for goods and services in the domestic market. The obtained quantitative estimates are presented in the context of selected industries, sectors and the Russian economy as a whole. As a generalized conclusion, it justifies the assessment of the joint effect of lockdown and a decrease in oil exports at about 5% of GDP

Based on the input-output life cycle assessment method, the embodied energy consumption, air and water emissions of China's international trade in 2007 were estimated. The results showed that the embodied energy consumption of China's international trade in 2007 is up to 229.04 Mt, accounting for 8.62% of total energy consumption. The embodied Chemical Oxygen Demand, Ammonia Nitrogen, Sulfur Dioxide and Dust emissions caused by net exports accounted for 9.85%, 9.11%, 6.71% and 0.78% of the overall emissions in China, respectively. China’s export promoted energy consumptions and pollutant emissions significantly. Therefore, China should adjust its export strategy and structure to reverse the adverse effects on energy and environment caused by exportation.

Ethiopia has one of the largest livestock populations in Africa. Due to lack of livestock market structure, performances, prices are poor and inadequate for designing policies and marketing system, the sector has remained stagnant. Despite fluctuation over years, the exports of meat (16,877 tonnes) and live animals (472,041 head) have significantly increased in 2010 -2012 Ethiopian Fiscal Year (EFY), recording 69 % increment from the previous years (kefyalew,2011). In 2018/19 EFY live animal contributes 33% of the earning, while 67 % was obtained from meat export (ERCA, 201819). However, lack of export routes and ports, illegal live animal trade, shortage of live animal and lack of appropriate breeding programs are some of the main challenges faced to the sector (kefaylew,2011). The presence of large livestock population with diverse and adaptable genotypes, and diverse agro-ecologies for production of different types of livestock; expansion of agro-industries and the increase of by product feedstuffs allowing for enhanced productivity; proximity of the middle east countries, high demand for meat and live animals including the domestic market are some of the opportunities that the sectors have. Therefore, the country would have been benefited more from the sector if the aforementioned challenges have been overcome. (Ameha,2011)

Limited water resources, an increase in water demand and a changing climate triggered the development of new concepts for assessment of water demand and water consumption locally and globally. The newest concepts that successfully tackle this issue are water footprint and virtual water trade. Aims of this study are: (1) to define specific water demand for the most important agricultural products in the international trade of the Republic of Serbia, (2) to assess possibilities of an increase in water productivity for those products, and (3) to assess sustainability of water resources in Serbia, based on the ratio of import/export during virtual water trade. Specific water demand for wheat, maize, sunflower, sugar beet and soya bean has been calculated and compared with specific water demand in other countries. Results prove that water productivity can be improved by, for example, using other varieties of crops or modifying cultivation technology. The ratio of imported/exported virtual water quantities for the periods 1995-1999 and 2010- 2013 in Serbia shows that more water was exported than imported. Sustainability of water resources in Serbia will not be endangered even if the export of agricultural products is increased.

The article considers the state and prospects of the Russian grain market, taking into account export opportunities, since the cultivation of grain crops is a system-forming for the economy of the Altai territory, on the state and development of which depends both the efficiency of enterprises associated with this industry, and the level of development of rural areas in General. The Altai territory is one of the ten largest grain-producing regions in Russia and has the largest areas of grain and leguminous crops in Russia. The share of grain production reaches 4.5% of the Russian indicator. Traditionally, in the region, the largest part of the grain production structure is wheat, but the demand in the interregional and global markets makes increasing demands on the quality of grain, the range of cereals, including those with improved environmental characteristics. In this regard, the authors of the article justify the appropriate adjustment of production, stimulating mechanisms for the development of export activities of agricultural and processing enterprises. It is shown that the natural — climatic and resource potential of the region allows growing rye, barley, buckwheat, soy, and others in demand on the world markets to produce organic products with the brand “Product of Altai”, which has proven itself in the markets as organic, environmentally friendly, natural products with high taste and useful properties for human health.

Introduction. The paper analyzes the dynamics of exports of the Georgian mineral water product and identifies the reasons for the upward or downward trends. The paper assesses the methodological issues of measuring the level of competition in agri-food markets in general. The paper uses a theoretical-methodological study of the issue. Comparative statistical analysis is performed according to the foreign trade statistics. The Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA) and the Relative Export Advantage Index (RXA) are calculated to assess the competitiveness of the Georgian mineral water sector using the “ex-post” method. In addition, an econometric model is constructed to substantiate the relationship between cause-effect variables. The model substantiates the impact of competitiveness weighed and estimated by “Doing Business”, „Index of Economic Freedom” rankings and the potential demand of partner countries weighted by trade shares, on the growth of Georgia's mineral water exports. Aim and tasks. The main purpose of the article is to highlight the role of product competitiveness among the factors affecting export growth, to identify the main obstacles and suggest ways to overcome them. The article also analyzes the most acute problems caused by Covid 19 in the field. There are analyzed policy and forecasts in response to the complicated economic situation created by the pandemic of the main companies of the Georgian mineral water market. Results. Based on the statistical trends, mathematical calculations and econometric model evaluations, a positive correlation between competitiveness and exports is substantiated. Also, the main points of the mineral water companies performance and state support economic policy are presented due to the pandemic situation. Taking into account the general and current problems in the sector the ways to maintain and increase the level of competitiveness of the product are identified. Conclusions. The conducted research presents the importance of the competitiveness on the export growth. Accordingly, the article proposes ways to increase the level of competition and competitiveness. Conclusions have been made on the underlying problems in the field, including those caused by Covid 19 and beyond, and recommendations for addressing these problems have been proposed. Keywords: competition, mineral water sector, export diversification, competitiveness indexes.

This study conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) investigating energy, land occupation, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, fresh water consumption and stress-weighted water use from production of export lamb in the major production regions of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. The study used data from regional datasets and case study farms, and applied new methods for assessing water use using detailed farm water balances and water stress weighting. Land occupation was assessed with reference to the proportion of arable and non-arable land and allocation of liveweight (LW) and greasy wool was handled using a protein mass method. Fossil fuel energy demand ranged from 2.5 to 7.0 MJ/kg LW, fresh water consumption from 58.1 to 238.9 L/kg LW, stress-weighted water use from 2.9 to 137.8 L H2O-e/kg LW and crop land occupation from 0.2 to 2.0 m2/kg LW. Fossil fuel energy demand was dominated by on-farm energy demand, and differed between regions and datasets in response to production intensity and the use of purchased inputs such as fertiliser. Regional fresh water consumption was dominated by irrigation water use and losses from farm water supply, with smaller contributions from livestock drinking water. GHG emissions ranged from 6.1 to 7.3 kg CO2-e/kg LW and additional removals or emissions from land use (due to cultivation and fertilisation) and direct land-use change (due to deforestation over previous 20 years) were found to be modest, contributing between –1.6 and 0.3 kg CO2-e/kg LW for different scenarios assessing soil carbon flux. Excluding land use and direct land-use change, enteric CH4 contributed 83–89% of emissions, suggesting that emissions intensity can be reduced by focussing on flock production efficiency. Resource use and emissions were similar for export lamb production in the major production states of Australia, and GHG emissions were similar to other major global lamb producers. The results show impacts from lamb production on competitive resources to be low, as lamb production systems predominantly utilised non-arable land unsuited to alternative food production systems that rely on crop production, and water from regions with low water stress.

The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A

This book develops the theme of teaching Italian abroad, starting from the awareness of the motivations for foreign students to study the Italian language and the different methodological procedures in order to teach it.For this purpose, the book focuses on the problems concerning the training of teachers of Italian to foreigners and on the many aspects of teaching Italian in order to propose both a methodological reflection on the edulinguistic project and educational solutions aimed at improving the quality of the students’ learning.Part 1The first part focuses on edulinguistic teaching vision for the learning of the Italian language as a foreign language based upon the principles of the Humanistic Approach.1. Teaching Italian Language Abroad: Institutional Language Policy and StrategiesThis chapter focuses on the situation of Italian foreign language teaching in the world. It also describes the linguistic policy for the promotion of Italian languages abroad adopted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the results obtained as the number of students involved in the different geographic areas.2. Teaching Trainer Courses as a Key Factor to Improve the Quality of Teaching Italian AbroadIn this chapter teaching trainer courses for Italian language teachers are considered as a part of a strategy to increase the students’ motivations and the learning process.3. Students as a Customer vs Students as a PersonLinguistic education and the Humanistic Approach aim to develop the students’ potential and create an autonomous language personality. Therefore, in this chapter, we outline a teaching perspective that considers the student as a person at the centre of teaching and learning Italian process.Part 2In the second part teaching methodologies to improve the quality of teaching and learning Italian language to foreigners are described.4. Effective Cooperative Learning Strategies to Teach Italian as a Foreign LanguageExamples of cooperative learning are given to illustrate how the following teaching methodology is possible in teaching Italian language even if it demands strong research and clear guidance for educators.5. How to Teach Italian Grammar to ForeignersThis chapter examines the existing research about using a deductive form of teaching grammar versus using an inductive form of teaching it.6. Teaching Italian Through Literature, Movies and CartoonsIn this chapter, different media and sources to teach Italian are examined. Using both classic and digital tools, students can explore the Italian language and culture from different points of view, developing a strategy to revisit thinking and to collaborate with others during the reading of classic texts or reading a cartoon.7. Humanistic Testing and Assessment for Italian as a Foreign LanguageFrom a Humanistic point of view, in this chapter, testing and assessment are considered as potential and relevant instruments to measure the progress and performance of individual students of Italian language.8. How to Plan and Use an Environment to Teach Italian to ForeignersThis chapter focuses on learning space to teach Italian to foreigners. The main aim is to provide practical advice and support to the teachers of Italian language schools that are going to explore how to develop and adapt learning spaces to the teaching activities and the students’ needs.

What is the use of research in public debates and policy-making on immigration and integration? Why are there such large gaps between migration debates and migration realities, and how can they be reduced? Bridging the Gaps: Linking Research to Public Debates and Policy-making on Migration and Integration provides a unique set of testimonies and analyses of these questions by researchers and policy experts who have been deeply involved in attempts to link social science research to public policies. Bridging the Gap argues that we must go beyond the prevailing focus on the research–policy nexus by considering how the media, public opinion, and other dimensions of public debates can interact with research and policy processes. The chapters provide theoretical analyses and personal assessments of the successes and failures of past efforts to link research to public debates and policy-making on migration and integration in six different countries—Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States—as well as in European and global governance debates. Contrary to common public perceptions and political demands, Bridging the Gaps argues that all actors contributing to research, public debates, and policy-making should recognize that migration, integration, and related decision-making are highly complex issues, and that there are no quick fixes to what are often enduring policy dilemmas. When the different actors understand and appreciate each other’s primary aims and constraints, such common understandings can pave the way for improved policy-making processes and better public policies that deal more effectively with the real challenges of migration and integration.

Rightly appreciated as a ‘poet’s poet’, Mandelstam has been habitually read as a repository of learned allusion. Yet as Seamus Heaney observed, his work is ‘as firmly rooted in both an historical and cultural context as real as Joyce’s Ulysses or Eliot’s Waste Land’. Great lyric poets offer a cross-section of their times, and Mandelstam’s poems represent the worlds of politics, history, art, and ideas about intimacy and creativity. The interconnections between these domains and Mandelstam’s writings are the subject of this book, showing how engaged the poet was with the history, social movements, political ideology, and aesthetics of his time. The importance of the book also lies in showing how literature, no less than history and philosophy, enables readers to confront the huge upheaval in outlook that can be demanded of us; thinking with poetry is to think through the moral compromise and tension felt by individuals in public and private contexts, and to create out of art experience in itself. The book further innovates by integrating a new, comprehensive discussion of the Voronezh Notebooks, one of the supreme achievements of Russian poetry. Mandelstam’s controversial political poetry has been virtually a taboo topic (despite sporadic attempts at assessment). This book considers the full political dimension of works that explore the role of the poet as a figure positioned within society but outside the state, caught between an ideal of creative independence and a devotion to the original, ameliorative ideals of the revolution.

Abstract To analyze the ripple effects of CO2 emissions from the introduction of renewable energy power plants, this study developed input–output tables for analysis of next-generation energy systems (IONGES). The results revealed that the environmental benefits obtained from investing in power plants of the same capacity vary significantly depending on the type of renewable energy. Using the IONGES, under assumptions of three carbon taxation methods (upstream, midstream, and downstream), we calculated the taxable CO2 emissions induced when producing each good or service and estimated the carbon tax burden associated with the final demand. We found that, in the upstream method, the taxation effects of one unit of carbon tax is concentrated in energy goods such as coal products and petroleum basic, while the effects are relatively dispersed in the downstream taxation method. If renewable energy is added to the government target level in 2030, taxable CO2 emissions will decrease by 12–13.3%. Compared with the upstream taxation method, in the midstream and downstream methods, the CO2 emissions induced by each final demand are distributed more evenly across various goods and services. Compared to the downstream taxation method, upstream taxation leads to higher CO2 emissions from exports, but lower CO2 emissions from household consumption. This is because energy-intensive industries such as machinery have high export ratios. We analyzed which expenditure categories contribute to the carbon tax burden associated with household consumption. In the case of upstream taxation, households mainly focus on reducing electricity consumption; in the case of downstream taxation, households reduce consumption of various energy-intensive goods and services.

This essay is an element of dialogue between educational practices acquired in territorial education contexts and the University. In particular, starting from the 10-year long experience consolidated in three educational centres operating in border areas of the Province of Naples, a series of ‘key competences’ have been highlighted that are indispensable to the containment of social risk disadvantage in an inclusion (Bertolini 1977; Freire 2004; Rossi 2014; Sabatano 2015a, 2015b) and well-being project (Iavarone 2007, 2009) from an educational point of view. Such competencies have become subject of a ‘participatory didactic planning’ between expert educators working in these contexts and a university course on ‘Pedagogy of relationships’ within the Department of Motor Science and Well-Being at the University of Naples Parthenope. The participatory planning practice has set the most ambitious goal of achieving a ‘system methodology’ to be used in the curriculum-design of the university courses in order to make the academic education offer a proper link element between the educational demand of young people, the demand for professional skills in the territory and the emerging social needs in order to improve employability processes. The main results that this experience has highlighted can be deducted from the student’s satisfaction survey, as well as from the data collected and processed by the University Assessment Team, in the Department’s Joint Commission Reports, which show a clear and overall improvement of the communication processes between non-academic institutions collaborating with the University for the conduct of internships, training sessions and placement-targeted activities. The empirical evidence and the positive results obtained provide substantial comfort in considering that the experience gained can be a ‘good practice’ to be included in the didactic planning process of the courses, even in relation to the need to improve the educational and didactic offer with reference to the new quality assurance parameters (QA) for the periodic accreditation of the CdS according to the AVA-ANVUR legislation in force

The usage of expert systems to aid in medical decisions has been employed since 1980s in distinct applications. With the high demands of medical care and limited human resources, these technologies are required more than ever. Skin cancer has been one of the pathologies with higher growth, which suffers from lack of dermatology experts in most of the affected geographical areas. A permanent record of examination that can be further analyzed are medical imaging modalities. Most of these modalities were also assessed along with machine learning classification methods. It is the aim of this research to provide background information about skin cancer types, medical imaging modalities, data mining and machine learning methods, and their application on skin cancer imaging, as well as the disclosure of a proposal of a multi-imaging modality decision support system for skin cancer diagnosis and treatment assessment based in the most recent available technology. This is expected to be a reference for further implementation of imaging-based clinical support systems.

With the ever-increasing load of satiating the agricultural demands, the transition of the orthodox methods into smart ones is inevitable. The agriculture sector for long has served as a momentous source of livelihood for many globally. It is arguably a major topic for nations of the development spectrum, contributing towards their export earnings and aiding in their GDP assessment. Thus, it is quite conspicuous that nations would work towards its expansion. In congruence, the burgeoning population and its demands have posed a threat to the environment due to extensive exploitation of resources, which in turn is escalating towards the downfall of the quality and quantity of agricultural produces requiring a 70% increment in the produces by 2050 for sustainability. To combat such hurdles, developed techniques are being employed. Through a survey of existing literature, this chapter provides a comprehensive overview of various image processing means that could come in handy for ameliorating the present scenario and shows their implied extension in the smart farming world.

Environmental management, technologies, products and services are commonly expected to provide significant economic opportunities for companies and countries. This is mainly due to increasing awareness among politicians, academics and the wider population on the importance of environmental aspects in daily life. Consequently demand for environmentally friendly solutions is expected to grow continuously in the next decade. The present study is part of a broader research project which examines the long-term science and technology (S&T) agenda in Russia up to 2030. The project's results were approved by the Prime Minister of Russia in early January 2014. Researchers from the National Research University Higher School of Economics carried out the research project at the request of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science between 2011 and 2013. The research comprised six interrelated spheres: ICT; biotechnology, medicine and public health; new materials and nanotechnologies; environmental management; transport and space systems; and energy efficiency and energy conservation. For each sphere, the project explored in-depth the global emergent challenges and opportunities, the risks, and their degree of influence on Russia. The authors analysed the most important potential market niches, products and services that are capable of radically shaping world markets and highlighted their competitive advantages. Within the framework of these priority science areas authors emphasised several spheres of particular potential value and compared the level of research carried out in Russia and the leading countries. The current chapter also covers the analyses the natural resources sector made within a project aimed at integration of national and sectoral S&T Foresight studies funded by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science. Findings show that the potential applications for environmental products and services are manifold. The study is based on a thorough analysis of expert opinions and their assessment of future applications and the development of demand for these applications. However the authors note that the expert opinions included in the assessment of prospective products, services and markets, despite being based on rigorous assessment, still reflect expectations. Their opinions incorporate a degree of uncertainty especially with regard to how and when (or whether) the markets, technologies, products and services will develop in the expected ways.

Therefore, this chapter will explore the vast world of video games and the opportunities for instructors to incorporate them into lesson planning. The basis of this empirical work is to align the guiding principles of STEM with the identification of accessible games, based upon learning principles and assessment strategies. The challenge for 21st century educators will be how to bridge the gap between the traditional development of skill sets to meet workforce demands in a dynamically changing global economy that simultaneously creates employees who are capable of innovation, collaboration, and deep critical thinking.

The chapter sets out to explore the “congruent approach” to the student-centric educational model called output-based education (OBE), and in the framework of this approach to teaching, learning, and evaluation, the authors experimented how teaching the English language help slow learners pursuing courses in science and technology to attain programme education outcomes. In the chapter, the authors defined OBE as NBA requirement related to teaching and learning in the institute of science and technology; its practices according to its defined constituents like ILOs, COs, POs, PEOs, PSOs, and Missions of an institute; and how these outcome-based education (OBE) learning constituents work together towards a fixed direction (i.e., intended learning outcomes, being integral to the requirements of the NBA accreditation that demands holistic and quality technical education). To achieve the intended outputs through OBE practices, the authors devise an approach to the OBE called “congruent approach.” The chapter supplements to existing mapping tools and delineates fundamentals of the approach.

European universities have increased their emphasis on commercializing original research so as to compete globally, to keep-up with changing demands of the knowledge economy, to offset decreased public funding, and to cope with the massification of education. “Commercializing” in this sense implies applying for patents. This chapter highlights the application of patent laws in the UK and Europe to educational technology. One of the most promising conditions under which patent law can be applied in educational technology is the peer-to-patent, originally introduced in the U.S. Another is expert-peer online assessment for resolving online disputes. The post-and-vote formula should be considered if this initiative is restarted in the future.

A study of the water quality assessment of the Betwa River stretch was conducted in order to explore the detrimental effects of assorted anthropogenic and visitors' activities on the river. The religious tourism activities are the main type of tourism activities explored under the study in context to India. Samples were collected during May 2014 (pre-monsoon) to December 2015 (post-monsoon) period. Twelve different physicochemical parameters were collected through primary data and field investigations, while the bacteriological parameters like total coliform and fecal coliform levels were analyzed through secondary data, except biochemical oxygen demand. The results suggest that the seasonal and spatial variations are significantly different. The results also conclude that the chloride, nitrite, phosphate, COD, nitrate, and BOD as evaluated using PCA extraction method shows a higher degree of positive correlation in a component which indicates anthropogenic and industrial impacts on water quality.

As the healthcare enterprise is adopting novel imaging and health-assessment technologies, we are facing unprecedented requirements in information sharing, patient empowerment, and care coordination within the system. Medical experts not only within US, but around the world should be empowered through collaboration capabilities on 3D data to enable solutions for complex medical problems that will save lives. The fast-growing number of 3D medical ‘images' and their derivative information must be shared across the healthcare enterprise among stakeholders with vastly different perspectives and different needs. The demand for 3D data visualization is driving the need for increased accessibility and sharing of 3D medical image presentations, including their annotations and their animations. As patients have to make decisions about their health, empowering them with the right tools to understand a medical procedure is essential both in the decision-making process and for knowledge sharing.

In front of the growing demand for natural gas, alternative solutions have been adopted to export the production to the several available markets. Conventional gas carriers have been converted to regasification units to operate close to the shore, treating the gas and delivering it to carriers which take the product to the shore. Side by side configurations for the gas transference by loading arms are common, and the reduce distance between the ships is the main challenge. For such application a time domain simulation is demanded. Due to the close proximity between the ships, at each time step, their distance has to be calculated in order to predict eventual ship to ship or ship to fenders collisions. When the ships are modeled by conventional meshes the interference analysis every time step is excessively time consuming, the use of parametric surfaces reduces the number of elements to be checked against each other and saves computational cost. The precision is also improved since the hull shapes are fully represented in comparison to the panel approximation provided by the meshing approach. The contact verification plays a fundamental role for that type of analysis and the gains obtained by the parametric surfaces appliance are significant.

The Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) has been a main arena for development of subsea pipeline technology over the last 25 years. The pipeline infrastructure in the North Sea is well developed and new field developments are often tied in to existing pipeline systems, /3/. Codes traditionally require a pipeline system to be designed with a uniform design pressure. However, due to the pressure drop when transporting gas in a very long pipeline, it is possible to operate multi design pressure systems. The pipeline integrity is ensured by limiting the inventory and local maximum allowable pressure in the pipeline using inlet and outlet pressure measurements in a Safety Instrumented System (SIS). Any blockage in the pipeline could represent a demand on the safety system. This concept was planned to be used in the new Gjo̸a development when connecting the 130 km long rich gas pipeline to the existing 450 km long FLAGS pipeline system. However, a risk assessment detected a new risk parameter; the formation of a hydrate and subsequent blockage of the pipeline. In theory, the hydrate could form in any part of the pipeline. Therefore, the pipeline outlet pressure could not be used in a Safety Instrumented System to control pipeline inventory. The export pressure at Gjo̸a would therefore be limited to FLAGS pipeline code. Available pressure drop over the Gjo̸a pipeline was hence limited and a large diameter was necessary. Various alternatives were investigated; using signals from neighbour installations, subsea remote operated valves, subsea pressure sensors and even a riser platform. These solutions gave high risk, reduced availability, high operating and/or capital expenses. A new idea of introducing flow measurement in the SIS was proposed. Hydraulic simulations showed that when the parameters of flow, temperature and pressure, all located at the offshore installation, were used; a downstream blockage could be detected early. This enabled the topside export pressure to be increased, and thereby reduced the pipeline diameter required. Flow measurement in Safety Instrumented Systems has not been used previously on the NCS. This paper describes the principles of designing a pipeline safety system including flow measurement with focus on the hydraulic simulations and designing the safety system. Emphasis will be put on improvements in transportation efficiency, cost reductions and operational issues.

Abstract This paper describes a suggestion to improvise an integrated gas planning process through network optimization. As a prudent operator it is imperative to formulate long-term gas supply outlook and scenarios to ensure efficient and effective resource management with due considerations of growth strategies while maximizing value for purpose of production-focused conversations, technical assessment of forthcoming developments, commercial arrangement policy and strategic expansions. Also, it necessitates to develop and implement resolution plan arising from supply planning areas i.e. shortfall mitigation, facilities ullage, constraint and complying specifications commitment. It thereby imposes to implement robust network optimization workflow in place to improvise the integrated gas management cycle to manage the current existing gas supply and to also regulate strategy in terms of line-ups, evacuation path of forthcoming fields economically. Precedingly integrated gas planning exercise was executed via stacking up list of production sources with forecasted demands. The precedent approach was emphasized purely on mathematical and statistical method of capitalizing the production profile and geographical traits of the production sources. Notwithstanding, the approach usually linked with identified challenges and pain points throughout the planning cycle. Challenges and pain points in integrated gas planning were briefly outlined to understand limitations of existing work process as well as the need of improvising the same by embedding network optimization by simulation modeling. It was observed that multiple challenges did occur during planning preparation until post planning implementation. Workflow for strategic integrated gas planning was established to include step by step process to illustrate the ideal case otherwise known as base case scenario. The work process for constructing a mathematical model for integrated gas planning was demonstrated to reflect the complexity of the process and landscape network. For each process, expectations were clarified to ensure robustness of the analysis. The limitations in the mathematical/statistical model workflow process was complimented by the enhancing method through network optimization. Network optimization was evaluated by leveraging on the development of holistic integrated modelling for current complex offshore facilities to empower and safeguard the proposed line up of new fields meeting technical allowances such as ullage, pressure balancing & supply/demand requirements, contaminant management in accordance with strategic planning & operations. Novel idea was established to create physical prototype (network model) of offshore supply network with building components such as source (fields), connectors (export pipelines and highways), sinks (multiple terminals), and pressure boosters (pump/compressor) were embedded in model for landscape along with multiple receiving end terminals. Network simulation model was also validated with Plant information PI data to yield representative results prior deployment. Situational analysis (what-if scenarios) were conducted to evaluate to root cause analysis and troubleshooting at several nodes in the network to cater for harmonic balance. Gap analysis was also executed to identify the necessary alterations to operating philosophy, partial segregation of system to cater for product demand and quality. Simulation network model was also utilized to explore different evacuation routes that could adhere to business rules/standards to optimize the work process and boost up the efficiency of current network. The above approach of improvising the integrated gas planning through network optimization truly enhance the end to end value chain by constituting result matter in validating the mathematical planning model with technical simulation to ensure robustness in management decision of certain strategies for the planning scenarios. It could also advocate the planning numbers by ensuring the do-ability and steer optimal solution for value maximization by deciphering the impediments and strengthening the analysis.

Performance assessment (PA), as a tool to support decisions associated with geological disposal, requires the facilitation of various views of stakeholders. A straightforward approach to this is for variety of people to actually try carrying out PA calculations to stimulate, test, and strengthen their arguments. In the past, however, they have been carried out only by a limited number of experts who share a similar discipline. This is due to a number of reasons, e.g., methodology of PA is difficult for a non-expert to follow, availability of resources necessary for PA is limited, and a single expert in a specific field cannot conduct an overall PA calculation because of multidisciplinary nature of PA. To tackle these issues, we developed a system on the World Wide Web that allows a wider spectrum of people to run PA codes and access associated databases on demand. Moreover they can build their own PA models in an object-oriented-online environment. With this system, independent and voluntary network communities can construct their own safety cases so that, collectively, a variety of views can be presented to support stakeholders in forming their opinion. In this paper, the methodology of the online performance assessment and configuration of the software system is presented with example applications.

Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) has definitively changed the procedures performed in operating rooms. In many cases, MIS has become the recommended standard technique, replacing the traditional open surgery. Effective training and objective assessment of surgeons in these techniques become a major concern in hospitals in recent years, encouraged primarily by patients and a society that demands safer surgical procedures, which is associated with better surgeons training. In the framework of surgery, the difficulty of defining objective metrics for performance evaluation lies in the strict dependency between tasks and the difficulty of defining the meaning of optimal performance, related to the characterization of gestures made by the experts. An objective method to compare 3D gestures between an expert and novice surgeons through multidimensional data analysis is proposed in this paper. A survey of different algorithms for surgical gestures analysis in time domain is carried out. These ones include the Multi-dimensional Dynamic Time Warping (MD-DTW) and Multi-Dimensional Derivative Dynamic Time Warping (MD-DDTW). Simulation and experimental results are given with this different techniques.

Demand of natural gas continues to increase in the recent years due to the rise of environmental issue and the drastic increase of crude oil price. These events led the increase of constructions of LNG storage tanks worldwide. The inner tank material for above ground LNG storage tanks have mostly been made of a 9% nickel steel plate over the last 50 years as it has excellent mechanical properties under the cryogenic temperature of −160deg-C. During this period, the LNG storage tanks made of 9%Ni steel plate have safely been operated at the many LNG export and import terminals in the world. Meanwhile, technologies of steel making, refinement, design, analysis, welding and inspection have been improved significantly and enable us to achieve enlarging volumetric capacity of the tank to 2–3 times. There was a tendency of increase in nickel price in the recent years and hence the preparation corresponding to the risk to a great rise on the price of 9%Ni steel plate becomes necessary. In such a circumstance lowering Ni content was focused attention on the 9%Ni steel as nickel is an expensive and valuable rare metal and the 7%Ni steel plate was eventually researched and developed. It was a steel making process so that a 7%Ni steel would be made by adjustment of chemical compositions and processed by suitable Thermo–Mechanical Controlled Process (TMCP). As a result, it was demonstrated that 7%Ni-TMCP steel plate had excellent physical and mechanical properties equivalent to those of 9%Ni steel plate. In order to evaluate fitness of the 7%Ni-TMCP steel plate and its weld for LNG storage tanks a series of testing was conducted. Several different kinds of plate thicknesses i.e. 6,10,25,40 and 50 mm were chosen to run large scale fracture toughness tests such as duplex ESSO tests, cruciform wide plate tests as well as small scale tests. In this study, a comprehensive assessment was performed to confirm applicability of the 7%Ni -TMCP steel plate and its weld to LNG storage tanks. It was concluded that the 7%Ni-TMCP steel plate warrants serious consideration for use in LNG storage tanks. This paper reports details of the research and development of the 7%Ni-TMCP steel plate.

The high energy demand and the threat of climate change have led to a remarkable development of renewable energies, initially through technologies applied to the terrestrial environment and, recently, through the awakening of marine renewable energies. However, the development of these types of projects is often hampered by failure to pass the corresponding environmental impact assessment process. The complexity of working in the marine environment and the uncertainties associated with assessing the impacts of such projects make it difficult to carry out objective and precise environmental impact assessments. AMBEMAR-DSS seeks to establish a basis for understanding and agreement between the different stakeholders (project developers, public administrations, environmental organizations and the public in general), in order to find solutions that allow the development of marine renewable energies, minimizing their environmental cost. For this purpose, a DSS is proposed which, based on cartographic information and using objective and quantifiable criteria, allows comparative assessments and analyses between different project alternatives. The analytical procedures used by the system include, among others, hydrodynamic modeling tools and visual impact simulators. In addition, impacts on marine species are assessed taking into account intrinsic ecological and biological aspects. The magnitude of the impacts is quantified by means of fuzzy logic operations and the integration of all the elements is carried out by an interactive multi-criteria analysis. The results are shown in tables, graphs and figures of easy interpretation and can be also visualized geographically by means of a cartographic viewer. The system identifies the main impacts generated in the different phases of the project and allows establishing adequate mitigation measures in search of optimized solutions. The establishment of the assessment criteria has been based on the abundant, but dispersed, scientific literature on the various elements of the system and having the opinion of experts in the various fields. Nevertheless, the DSS developed constitutes a preliminary basis on which to build and improve a system with the input of researchers, promoters and experts from different disciplines.

Abstract Alternating temperatures induce thermomechanical stresses in thick-walled components such as turbine rotors or housings, which can lead to fatigue and superimposed creep. Subsequently, damage can occur at their heated surfaces. Under the nowadays prevailing operating conditions of power plants with multiple cold, warm and hot starts as reaction to the high volatility of electric demand from fossil fired power plants for ensuring grid stability, methods for lifetime assessment are coming more into the focus of investigations and research. Engineers are trying to estimate the residual lifetimes of in-service components and operators of power plants ask for strategies to minimize the calculative material damage while simultaneously providing a maximum flexibility with shortest response times on altered demands. Among constitutive models, which are not subject of this paper, accumulative models for lifetime assessment were introduced several decades ago and are partially considered in applicable standards. Such models based on a damage accumulation are easy to apply but they are considered to be either very imprecise or very conservative, while the conservatism reflects the necessity of large safety margins. This paper summarize a few measures, which are suitable to improve the predictive quality of models based on a simple time-fraction rule. The proposed model is based on a synthesis of hysteresis loops for isothermal and non-isothermal conditions, concepts for consideration of cyclic softening or hardening during lifetime, concepts for dealing with internal back stresses, mean strains or stresses, and for accounting of creep-fatigue interaction. The latter is based on a so-called transition time concept, where the creep damage during dwell times partially attributes to the portion of fatigue damage, which in turn is determined from fatigue life curves for dwell time experiments. In addition, the model comprises a concept for the post-processing of transient FEM calculations and dealing with multiaxial loading conditions. Since the essentials of the proposed method with the transition time concept were published more than 10 years ago, the listed modifications improve the benefit for daily engineering usage. Validation experiments provide evidence of the models predicting capabilities with acceptable uncertainty.

The demand for higher plant cycling operation and reduced life-cycle costs are the main drivers for the design and assessment of turbine components today. Heavy cyclic loading increases the potential of fully utilizing the fatigue capabilities of the material which might lead to crack initiation and subsequent crack propagation. Fracture mechanics methods and evaluation concepts are widely applied to assess the integrity of components with defects or crack-like findings. The realistic modelling of the failure mechanism plays a key role for the accurate prediction of crack sizes at failure state. A basic treatment of material toughness typically leads to conservative assessments for components with sufficient ductility. A standard approach to describe material behavior with high ductility is to use the start of stable crack extension as a dimensioning parameter for the analysis. By definition a critical condition for a component is reached when the crack driving force is equal to the characteristic material parameter. On the other hand, advanced analysis methods allow determination of the instability point (ductile tearing analysis). This paper will discuss two cases for practical analysis from steam turbine design showing clear advantages for service application by using advanced analysis methods.

Pipeline stations, as an important part of long-distance pipeline systems, include lots of facilities which are highly concentrated and always operate continuously. Risk assessment is an important foundation work for the risk management of these stations. Since various uncertainties exist during the quantitative risk assessment (QRA), this paper explores the theories and approaches of QRA for station accidents, and also introduces some specific mathematical theories for quantification and dealing with uncertainties. This paper combines uncertainty theory effectively with the QRA for gas distribution stations, analyzes the uncertain factors in the QRA of gas distribution station, and establishes Bayesian update model for estimating basic events’ failure rates and probabilities of failure on demand based on generic failure data and plant-specific data. And it also offers conversion method among conjugate prior distribution of different types. Besides, probabilistic estimation model is set up by the combination of fuzzy set theory, expert judgments and fuzzy group decision making. The paper builds Fuzzy Bow-Tie quantitative model for distribution station under dependency relationships, and proposes the sensitivity analysis method for the accident model based on fuzzy importance index, fuzzy uncertainty index and minimal cut sets importance index.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.