Academic literature on the topic 'Export attractiveness assessment export country assessment'

The article deals with the investment forecast for the energy sector of Russia in the long term for the period up to 2030, analyzes the dynamics and identifies cause-effect relationships. The hypothesis of growth of investment attractiveness is formed on the basis of revenue assessment of the largest companies of the fuel and energy complex of Russia. The authors describe the possibilities for the use of financial instruments for the development of the real sector of the economy. The indicators of evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects in the field of oil exploration and production are given. The potential of the world leaders in the field of oil supply to the international energy market is studied. Methods, forms and sources of financing of the real sector of economy are defined. The measures to stimulate economic growth and increase the investment attractiveness of the studied industry are recommended. The analysis of the oil and gas complex is carried out on the following economic indicators: criteria of return on capital and sales, coefficients of business activity, financial leverage, liquidity and capitalization of assets of companies operating in a single industry. This made it possible to identify inefficient producers of raw materials whose investment strategies are in dire need of adjustment and optimization of sources of financing. As a result of the study, proposals are formulated to redistribute investments into more profitable segments of the extractive industry, to combine the mechanisms of taxation of mineral extraction with the extraction of economic benefits from the expansion of the range of export duties levied on foreign trade operations. The article traces the economically significant idea of the need to modernize infrastructure organizations, the construction of new facilities in the activities of generating industries based on the optimization of investment flows in the companies of the real sector of the economy. As a result of the research, the authors substantiate the proposals for linking the economic growth of the country with the processes of investment in oil production and exploration taking into account the elimination of imbalances in the structure of revenue and capital.

Investment attractiveness of a country, and approaches to its evaluation have been thoroughly debated over few last decades. Initially, the key question concerned the reasons as to why large number of resource holders (financial funds, technologies, management systems etc.) would locate their assets, especially research and development projects, in other countries rather than remaining in their home economies. Increasing the quantity and quality of contacts with developed countries within investment process is crucially important for the development of Ukrainian economy. As follows from that point, the authors have identified features of approaches to investment attractiveness evaluation on a macroeconomic level analyzing latest works of scientists and researchers around the world. It is believed, that the most valuable type of investments for future GDP growth is funds from multinational corporations: they bring not only money, but technologies, and decision how make new businesses profitable. Thus, the fundamental consideration for countries competing for investments is the influencing and improvement of such factors through effective investment incentives policies. Within this work, we researched recent studies of investment attractiveness evaluation around the world, and assumed key points for improving and applying those approaches in Ukrainian economy. Within literature analysis the authors structured approaches to the evaluation based on the methods and subjects those approaches used. The most common methods are related to econometric analysis of statistical data that is collected and published by international institutions and rating agencies. Current analysis shows a tangible dependence between country investment attractiveness and the dynamics of FDI inflows. This dependence is not always straightforward, which is explained by influence of many other determinants within decision-making process. The authors suggest that involving independent experts from respective sectors of the economy could help to optimize the results of statistical data analysis. The expert survey provides the necessary correction coefficients which are to increase the accuracy and relevance of the investment attractiveness evaluation. The authors proposed a generalized approach to assessing the country investment attractiveness, taking into account international experience and features of the Ukrainian economy. Key words: investments, country investment attractiveness, foreign direct investment, investment attractiveness evaluation.

A model has been developed for the optimization of the share structure of an investment portfolio in high-tech projects supported by the leaders of the leading industry companies in Russia. Several indicators (financial leverage, integrated rating of companies, industry rating) were applied in the decision support system for the shared distribution of investments. High-tech production is based on innovative technologies for saving resources, the resiliency of systems for transporting and transferring raw materials and finished products within Russia, so the main income will remain within the country. It is possible to export high-tech products, rather than raw materials, which will increase export revenues. Investors will invest in high-tech projects of Russian companies, taking into account the targeting of investment development. The guarantee is the stable financial position of the companies and the competitiveness rating. Methods: The authors propose a new approach that does not contradict modern rating scales, based on a hierarchical rating procedure and fuzzy logical rules that allow you to build an integral rating in the form of portfolio shares from the whole. A higher share shows an indicator of the higher investment attractiveness of companies. The industry rating is obtained based on the principle of the company’s first affiliation to the highest rating indicator. The final minimax portfolio is based on the initial ratings in a circular convolution and is then adjusted by industry. A software package has been compiled that allows the testing of the method of capital allocation between investment projects for the largest companies’ leaders of high-tech industries in Russia. This software uses the author’s method of multi-stage analysis, the evaluation of financial coefficients, the integral ranking and the correction of the solution taking into account the industry attributes. Results: The results are presented with computer-aided design (CAD) in the form of an algorithmized decision support system (DSS). The CAD system is based on a hierarchical algorithm, based on the use of a multi-level redistribution of investment shares of high-tech companies, taking into account the adaptation to the requirements of the return on investment portfolio. When compiling the portfolio, the minimax optimality criterion is applied, which allows the stabilization of the risk by purposefully redistributing funds between the companies involved in the analysis. The authors of the article have compiled an algorithm for the software implementation of the model. Features of the rating approach: the use of the author’s mathematical apparatus, which includes a hierarchical analysis of the ranked indicators of the financial and economic activity of companies, taking into account their priority, and the use of a minimax approach to obtain a rating assessment of companies, taking into account the industry attributes. Development: The proposed approach should be used for targeted financing of large industry companies engaged in the implementation of high-tech projects.

Analysis of the dynamics of the movement and structure of investment resources allows us to determine how competitive a sector of the national economy is in attracting foreign investment and identify problems before they affect the related macroeconomic indicators. The article examines the factors influencing FDI inflows and their interaction with public authorities. Based on the data of the quality of political institutions (WGI), developed with the participation of representatives of the World Bank, a basis for assessing the investment attractiveness of Ukraine was formed. As part of a study of international experience in assessing investment attractiveness, the authors analyzed current approaches to assessing the impact of political institutions on the dynamics of FDI and concluded on the qualitative characteristics of political institutions. Due to the limited supply of quality investment resources, the study of the assessment of the investment potential of the national economy is an important aspect of the implementation of domestic socio-economic policy. The study of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of the economy of Ukraine allowed to form a set of indices that have a significant impact on decision-making by potential investors. The authors proposed an approach to determining investment attractiveness based on the analysis of the dynamics of quantitative indicators of the state of the economy and quality indicators of public administration. The proposed model allows to assess the impact of each of the factors on the dynamics of FDI, to identify problems that demotivate the inflow of investment resources and to develop recommendations for investment policy management at the state level. Analysis of the dynamics of the movement and structure of investment resources allows us to determine how competitive a sector of the national economy is in attracting foreign investment and identify problems before they affect the related macroeconomic indicators. The authors' approach to assessing investment attractiveness takes into account most of the main determinants of FDI. In the analysis of the literature, it was decided to take into account not only quantitative statistics, but also the results of a survey of experts, which should have avoided the bias associated with the problem of non-consideration of variables. Further development of improving the assessment of investment attractiveness of the country by updating the list of determining factors and indicators influencing the movement of FDI, and ranking of indicators of investment attractiveness using the methods of expert assessments.

The article attempts to assess the possible parameters of the state of mechanical engineering in Russia in the event of a significant increase in the export of its products provided for by the national project "International Cooperation and Export". The evaluation of the parameters is based on the premise that an increase in the export of engineering products will entail an increase in the volume of its production (provided that there is no decrease in domestic consumption) in the country, which in turn will necessitate a possible re-equipment and reconstruction of existing industries and the creation of new ones. In addition, increasing the output of competitive high-tech products will require increased R&D and the creation of related organizations. All this in total may require significant investment. Evaluation of hypothetical investments in the implementation of intentions to increase the export of engineering products was carried out according to the table of use of domestic products at basic prices from the Rosstat system of input-output tables. At the same time, the original table was transformed into a worksheet with the inclusion of the investment unit, as a result of calculations on which, apart from hypothetical investments equal to the difference between the initial and estimated values of fixed assets, the impact on the output of economic activities related to engineering was determined.

Ethiopia has one of the largest livestock populations in Africa. Due to lack of livestock market structure, performances, prices are poor and inadequate for designing policies and marketing system, the sector has remained stagnant. Despite fluctuation over years, the exports of meat (16,877 tonnes) and live animals (472,041 head) have significantly increased in 2010 -2012 Ethiopian Fiscal Year (EFY), recording 69 % increment from the previous years (kefyalew,2011). In 2018/19 EFY live animal contributes 33% of the earning, while 67 % was obtained from meat export (ERCA, 201819). However, lack of export routes and ports, illegal live animal trade, shortage of live animal and lack of appropriate breeding programs are some of the main challenges faced to the sector (kefaylew,2011). The presence of large livestock population with diverse and adaptable genotypes, and diverse agro-ecologies for production of different types of livestock; expansion of agro-industries and the increase of by product feedstuffs allowing for enhanced productivity; proximity of the middle east countries, high demand for meat and live animals including the domestic market are some of the opportunities that the sectors have. Therefore, the country would have been benefited more from the sector if the aforementioned challenges have been overcome. (Ameha,2011)

The ability to implement strategic priorities in regional development and the activation of export activities of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are necessary conditions for the successful solution of economic problems in the framework of the National project “Small and medium-sized enterprises and support for individual entrepreneurial initiative” adopted at the end of December 2018. The aim of the study is to assess the export specialization of small and medium-sized businesses in the region to further develop a unified approach to promoting the development of SME exports in the direction of stimulating the non-resource segment. The article presents the results of the study of export specialization of small and medium enterprises in the Russian Federation. Aspects of the theory of entrepreneurship in the context of exports are studied and reflected. The key characteristics of the component of export orientation in the sale of products on the international market are analyzed. The article presents an approach to the characteristics of the specialization of exports in the all-Russian comparison, which allows a more objective assessment of this specialization of the region with the possibility of further development and prioritization in a particular segment of manufacturing industries. The export specialization of the SME sector in the Russian regions broken down by segment groups is shown. The analysis of the structural features of the export of small and medium-sized enterprises in the regional context. In conclusion, the conclusions are drawn and the directions of export development of small and medium-sized businesses at the regional level are proposed. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the development of a segmental structure of exports of small and medium-sized businesses that allows to reflect the assessment of export specialization in the region. In the further stages of the study, it is planned to develop tools to assess the specifics of SME exports in the non-resource sector, not only in the country, but also in a particular region.

The development of an appropriate export promotion strategy in any country calls for consideration of such country-level determinants as macroeconomic indicators and cultural elements. Small economies, like Lithuania, must have a clear understanding of which macroeconomic factors most significantly contribute to the competitiveness of their exports. This article is aimed at assessment of the competitiveness of Lithuanian export in the macroeconomic context. The main purpose of the research is to assess the determinants of the competitiveness of Lithuanian export in the macroeconomic context. For accomplishment of the defined purpose, the following objectives were raised: 1) to review the general determinants of export competitiveness; 2) to develop the methodology for assessment of the country’s export competitiveness in the macroeconomic context; 3) to empirically assess the impact of macroeconomic determinants on the competitiveness of Lithuanian export over the period 2007–2015. The research methods include comparative and systematic literature analysis, correlation and regression analysis. It has been found that GDP (gross domestic product) per capita and general state’s revenue from taxes and social contributions explain the trends of Lithuanian export by 99.1 percent. A very strong correlation has been estimated between Lithuanian export and terms of financing for exporting enterprises, a negative medium-strong correlation has been estimated between the country’s export and its general tax level, while a positive medium-strong correlation has been captured between the country’s export and its minimum wages. Novelty. The results lead to the conclusion that the competitiveness of Lithuanian export is mainly affected by the state’s tax policy, terms of financing for exporting enterprises and social wage strategies. By improving the above-mentioned areas, the country could occupy stronger competitive positions in international markets.

The purpose of the study is to identify the importance of increasing export activity in ensuring economic development and the main conditions for increasing the country's export potential, to stimulate exports based on an assessment of the current state of export operations. Moreover, the study determines the directions for increasing the country's export potential and improving the legal framework for its use, furthermore, compile the adequate suggestions and recommendations. The report identifies the importance of export activities in the modern system of economic relations; The main conditions for increasing the export potential in the Republic of Azerbaijan and the stimulated means of using the export potential have been studied; the need for legal regulation of state intervention to increase the export potential of Azerbaijan and promote its implementation was substantiated; the system of legislative acts regulating the implementation of export operations was analyzed; the mechanisms of realization of the existing state support in the field of export stimulation in our country have been studied; The directions of improving the legal framework to increase the export potential and stimulate exports have been identified in our country. Keywords: export, foreign relations, economic development, growth, international trade.

Ukraine is the only major agricultural country whose production of biofuels has declined since 2010. Nevertheless, it has set a target of 11.5 percent of primary energy supply from biomass, biofuels and waste by 2035. Agricultural land needed to produce biofuels feedstock is calculated for two scenarios based on its current 11.5 percent target and previous 5.0 percent target specified as a share of transport energy consumption. The export orientation of Ukraine’s crop sector and resulting foreign currency earnings pose trade-offs if crops are diverted from exports to biofuel feedstocks. Given these trade-offs, policy options for developing a biofuels industry while satisfying Ukraine’s export and domestic markets are to (1) bring land not currently cultivated into production and (2) increase yield. Both options are found to have substantial potential.

The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A

This thesis draws on David Harvey’s concept of “accumulation by dispossession” and an international political economy (IPE) approach centred on the institutional arrangements and power structures that privilege certain actors and values, in order to critique current capitalist practices of primitive accumulation by the global corporate extractive industry. The thesis examines how accumulation by dispossession by the global extractive industry is facilitated by the “free entry” or “free mining” principle. It does so by focusing on Canada as a leader in the global extractive industry and the spread of this country’s mining laws to other countries – in other words, the transnationalisation of norms in the global extractive industry – so as to maintain a consistent and familiar operating environment for Canadian extractive companies. The transnationalisation of norms is further promoted by key international institutions such as the World Bank, which is also the world’s largest development lender and also plays a key role in shaping the regulations that govern natural resource extraction. The thesis briefly investigates some Canadian examples of resource extraction projects, in order to demonstrate the weaknesses of Canadian mining laws, particularly the lack of protection of landowners’ rights under the free entry system and the subsequent need for “free, prior and informed consent” (FPIC). The thesis also considers some of the challenges to the adoption and implementation of the right to FPIC. These challenges include embedded institutional structures like the free entry mining system, international political economy (IPE) as shaped by international institutions and powerful corporations, as well as concerns regarding ‘local’ power structures or the legitimacy of representatives of communities affected by extractive projects. The thesis concludes that in order for Canada to be truly recognized as a leader in the global extractive industry, it must establish legal norms domestically to ensure that Canadian mining companies and residents can be held accountable when there is evidence of environmental and/or human rights violations associated with the activities of Canadian mining companies abroad. The thesis also concludes that Canada needs to address underlying structural issues such as the free entry mining system and implement FPIC, in order to curb “accumulation by dispossession” by the extractive industry, both domestically and abroad.

Abstract This study aims to contribute to industry discussion on gas utilization opportunities available to Ghana. Specifically, it will analyze Ghana's existing natural gas plans. i.e., the Gas Master Plan analyze possible opportunities and associated challenges and finally propose sources of finance for gas sector projects. In order to discover opportunities of natural gas utilization as well as challenges that come in the course of implementation, data was sourced from secondary sources as well. Benchmarking was also done using the natural gas journeys of three (3) case study countries: Nigeria, China, and the United Kingdom and a comparative analysis compared their natural gas journeys in terms of policy direction, natural gas utilization, infrastructure development and challenges encountered vis a vis the natural gas journey of Ghana. The analysis showed that various opportunities existed for natural gas utilization in the areas of industrial power generation, LNG export, CNG, Fertilizer and bauxite production. Various challenges such as lack of human and technical capacity, sector debt, regulatory issues, pricing issues, security of supply and others plagued most natural gas economies. These findings suggest that an ‘armory’ of opportunities exist for natural gas utilization in Ghana. However, the implementation of these utilization options is contingent on the development of proper policy instruments and extensive investment in infrastructure. The country should also be conscious of bottlenecks that may hinder natural gas utilization efforts.

Purpose – the purpose of the article is to a study of factors that allow to test the impact of digitalization on the economy. Research methodology – the main method of the research is panel analysis of 8 digital economy indicators on GDP per capita for 28 countries for over 17 years. The study asserts that digitalization will ensure the growth of GDP as a key indicator of economic development. Findings – it was found that that transformation into a digital economy is likely to have a positive impact on countries where there is a growth of the net export of ICT services is achieved while communications and computer service imports are reduced. Research limitations – the limitations of the research are that the method applied allows to determine the influence of the studied factors on GDP per capita, but the results of the evaluation require further detailed analysis of the studied factors for each country. Practical implications – the study helps to identify the factors of high importance in the digitalization process and to determine factors what should be focused on achieving the desired results of digitalization. Originality/Value – the method allows to make an express-evaluation, reducing the complexity of calculations and time costs

Oil and gas production in Canada’s west has led to the need for a significant increase in pipeline capacity to reach export markets. Current proposals from major oil and gas transportation companies include numerous large diameter pipelines across the Rocky Mountains to port locations on the coast of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The large scale of these projects and the rugged terrain they cross lead to numerous challenges not typically faced with conventional cross-country pipelines across the plains. The logistics and access challenges faced by these mountain pipeline projects require significant pre-planning and assessment, to determine the timing, cost, regulatory and environmental impacts. The logistics of pipeline construction projects mainly encompasses the transportation of pipe and pipeline materials, construction equipment and supplies, and personnel from point of manufacture or point of supply to the right-of-way (ROW) or construction area. These logistics movement revolve around the available types of access routes and seasonal constraints. Pipeline contractors and logistics companies have vast experience in moving this type of large equipment, however regulatory constraints and environmental restrictions in some locations will lead to significant pre-planning, permitting and additional time and cost for material movement. In addition, seasonal constraints limit available transportation windows. The types of access vary greatly in mountain pipeline projects. In BC, the majority of off-highway roads and bridges were originally constructed for the forestry industry, which transports logs downhill whereas the pipeline industry transports large equipment and pipeline materials in both directions and specifically hauls pipe uphill. The capacity, current state and location of these off-highway roads must be assessed very early in the process to determine viability and/or potential options for construction access. Regulatory requirements, environmental restrictions, season of use restrictions and road design must all be considered when examining the use of or upgrade of existing access roads and bridges. These same restrictions are even more critical to the construction of new access roads and bridges. The logistics and access challenges facing the construction of large diameter mountain pipelines in Western Canada can be managed with proper and timely planning. The cost of the logistics and access required for construction of these proposed pipeline projects will typically be greater than for traditional pipelines, but the key constraint is the considerable time requirement to construct the required new access and pre-position the appropriate material to meet the construction schedule. The entire project team, including design engineers, construction and logistics planners, and material suppliers must be involved in the planning stages to ensure a cohesive strategy and schedule. This paper will present the typical challenges faced in access and logistics for large diameter mountain pipelines, and a process for developing a comprehensive plan for their execution.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.