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1
Smith, Susan N. "Teaching Analysis to Professional Writing Students: Heuristics Based on Expert Theories." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194794.
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Professional writing students must analyze communications in multiple modalities, on page or screen. This project argues that student analysts benefit from using articulated heuristics, summaries of articles, books, or theories in chart form that remain in the visual field with the communication to be analyzed. Keeping the heuristic in view reduces students' cognitive load by narrowing the search for solution to the categories in the heuristic. These heuristics, often one page or one screen, contain key words, phrases, or questions that allow students to approach analysis from experts' points of view at more than one level of complexity. Students locate instantiations of the categories in the communication analyzed, incorporating the category/instantiation pairs into personal schemas for analysis. As students classify communications, relate parts together and to other communications, and perform operations on the content, they see how communication achieves its meaning and formulate appropriate responses. Rather than rely on one all-purpose heuristic, this dissertation presents a range of heuristics reflecting rhetorical, discourse, linguistic, usability, and visual strategies that enable students to critique both form and function in communication. The heuristics reflect a systematically ordered workplace context, articulate an appropriate and specific theory for the situation, interface with other heuristic systems for depth and efficacy, and instantiate the categories at some helpful secondary level of complexity. To theorize the visual nature of the heuristic chart displays, I employ the semiotic of Charles Sanders Peirce, working through the implications of chart construction as I diagram Peirce's theory of diagrammatic iconicity.
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Machac, Mary Kristin. "A Model of Expert Instructional Design Heuristics Incorporating Design Thinking Methods." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/102926.
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Novice instructional designers have limited experience working with ill-structured problems, and often do not possess the mental models to effectively analyze, manage, and communicate the overall design process of new instructional design projects (Wedman and Tessmer, 1993; Rowland, 1992; Perez and Emery, 1995; Liu, Gibby, Quiros, and Demps, 2002). In their 2016 article of expert instructional design principles applied by experienced designers in practice, York and Ertmer proposed the following questions for future research, "(a) Can we teach principles to novice instructional designers? (b) What methods should we use to provide this information?" (York and Ertmer, 2016, p. 189). This research further explored these questions and offers a new model of expert instructional design heuristics incorporating design thinking methods. The purpose of this study was to identify design thinking methods that aligned with heuristics of expert instructional design practitioners, and to design and develop a new model of heuristics and design thinking methods, which could assist novice instructional designers as they enter the instructional design field. The literature outlines challenges reported among novice instructional designers throughout the instructional design process, which includes their ability to solve ill-structured problems; conduct thorough analyses; collaborate in teams; negotiate priorities; generate a variety of ideas for solutions; overcome resource, budget and time constraints; communicate and manage projects with stakeholders; and prototype, iterate and pilot new design solutions (Rowland, 1992; Hoard, Stefaniak, Baaki, and Draper, 2019; Roytek, 2010; Liu, Gibby, Quiros, and Demps, 2002; Chang and Kuwata, 2020; Tracey and Boling, 2014; Perez and Emery, 1995; Williams van Rooij, 1993). The model offers novice instructional designers specific methods and combinations of methods to use for every stage of the instructional design process. As instructional designers implement design thinking methods within the context of their daily situations, they should become more comfortable and begin to adapt the methods to meet their individual needs for each stage of their process.<br>Doctor of Philosophy<br>Instructional design is a system of procedures for developing education and training curricula in a consistent and reliable fashion (Branch and Merrill, 2011; Branch and Kopcha, 2014). It embodies an iterative process for outlining outcomes, selecting teaching and learning strategies, choosing support technologies, identifying media, and measuring performance (Branch and Kopcha, 2014). Instructional designers use models of instructional design and instructional development to communicate tasks and procedures of the instructional design process (Andrews and Goodson, 1980).
Over the years, numerous models of instructional design have been developed and adapted to meet the varying needs of instructional designers and developers. There is a consensus that most instructional processes consist of five core elements or stages: analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation, which are commonly referred to as ADDIE (Seels and Glasgow, 1990; Branch and Kopcha, 2014). While often considered generic, the ADDIE framework contains a useful set of common criteria, which most designers state as important or necessary as a part of any instructional design process (Pittenger, Janke, and Bumgardner, 2009; York and Ertmer, 2011; 2016).
Novice instructional designers have limited experience working with ill-structured problems, and often do not possess the mental models (prior experience) to effectively analyze, manage, and communicate the overall design process of new instructional design projects (Wedman and Tessmer, 1993; Rowland, 1992; Perez and Emery, 1995; Liu, Gibby, Quiros, and Demps, 2002). In their 2016 article of expert instructional design principles applied by experienced designers in practice, York and Ertmer proposed the following questions for future research, "(a) Can we teach principles to novice instructional designers? (b) What methods should we use to provide this information?" (York and Ertmer, 2016, p. 189). This research further explored these questions and offers a new model of expert instructional design heuristics incorporating design thinking methods. For this study, heuristics were defined as generalized stages of an instructional designer's process and design thinking was defined as a human-centered design process for solving complex problems. The purpose of this study was to identify design thinking methods that aligned with heuristics of expert instructional design practitioners, and to design and develop a new model of heuristics and design thinking methods, which could assist novice instructional designers as they enter the instructional design field. The literature outlines challenges reported among novice instructional designers throughout the instructional design process, which includes their ability to solve ill-structured problems; conduct thorough analyses; collaborate in teams; negotiate priorities; generate a variety of ideas for solutions; overcome resource, budget and time constraints; communicate and manage projects with stakeholders; and prototype, iterate and pilot new design solutions (Rowland, 1992; Hoard, Stefaniak, Baaki, and Draper, 2019; Roytek, 2010; Liu, Gibby, Quiros, and Demps, 2002; Chang and Kuwata, 2020; Tracey and Boling, 2014; Perez and Emery, 1995; Williams van Rooij, 1993). The model offers novice instructional designers specific methods and combinations of methods to use for every stage of the instructional design process. As instructional designers implement design thinking methods within the context of their daily situations, they should become more comfortable and begin to adapt the methods to meet their individual needs for each stage of their process.
3
Lim, Hedy. "Discovering expert instructional designers' heuristics for creating scenario-based workplace instruction." Thesis, Capella University, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10103202.
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<p> Scenario-based instructional design is ideal for workplace training, as it promotes practical and performance-based learning through the use of realistic situations. The research problem is a need for well-defined heuristics, what Gibbons (2014) called operational principles and what York and Ertmer (2011) called rules of thumb, being basic guidelines that promote and characterize expertise, in the area of scenario-based online instruction. The purpose of this Delphi study was to gather expert feedback on ideas in the form of a set of best practices for scenario-based online instructional design for the workplace. The research questions break down the topic into four basic areas: identifying a learning problem, discovering scaffolds or learning resources, maintaining project momentum, and essential concerns for instructional development. Experts in workplace scenario-based instructional design, with particular emphasis on professionals with an online or academic presence, were recruited as subjects. A detailed review of the literature gathered forty-two original statements that were organized into five categories. Per Delphi methodology, the study was conducted as a three round iterative online instrument. Subjects were asked to rate each statement and to provide additional statements to clarify and expand on their best practices based on their experience. Twenty-nine subjects completed all three rounds of the research study. While the statements express a wide variety of best practices for the field, recommendations for further research generally focused on thoughtful consideration of the learner, the instructional development team, and a focus on the integrity or realistic authenticity of the learning scenario, throughout the instructional experience.</p>
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Cheam, T. S. "Expert systems and heuristics in rota design : With reference to hospital staffing." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.381513.
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Stuckart, Daniel W. "Secondary students using expert heuristics in the analysis of digitalized historical documents." [Tampa, Fla.] : University of South Florida, 2004. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/SFE0000232.
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Szarek, Harmony Kristin. "Subjectivity in Expert Decision Making: Risk Assessment, Acceptability, and Cognitive Heuristics Affecting Endangered Species Act Listing Judgments for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Grizzly Bear." The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1430998102.
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Ahmad, Abdul-Rahim. "An Intelligent Expert System for Decision Analysis and Support in Multi-Attribute Layout Optimization." Thesis, University of Waterloo, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/785.
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Layout Decision Analysis and Design is a ubiquitous problem in a variety of work domains that is important from both strategic and operational perspectives. It is largely a complex, vague, difficult, and ill-structured problem that requires intelligent and sophisticated decision analysis and design support. <br /><br /> Inadequate information availability, combinatorial complexity, subjective and uncertain preferences, and cognitive biases of decision makers often hamper the procurement of a superior layout configuration. Consequently, it is desirable to develop an intelligent decision support system for layout design that could deal with such challenging issues by providing efficient and effective means of generating, analyzing, enumerating, ranking, and manipulating superior alternative layouts. <br ><br /> We present a research framework and a functional prototype for an interactive Intelligent System for Decision Support and Expert Analysis in Multi-Attribute Layout Optimization (IDEAL) based on soft computing tools. A fundamental issue in layout design is efficient production of superior alternatives through the incorporation of subjective and uncertain design preferences. Consequently, we have developed an efficient and Intelligent Layout Design Generator (ILG) using a generic two-dimensional bin-packing formulation that utilizes multiple preference weights furnished by a fuzzy Preference Inferencing Agent (PIA). The sub-cognitive, intuitive, multi-facet, and dynamic nature of design preferences indicates that an automated Preference Discovery Agent (PDA) could be an important component of such a system. A user-friendly, interactive, and effective User Interface is deemed critical for the success of the system. The effectiveness of the proposed solution paradigm and the implemented prototype is demonstrated through examples and cases. <br /><br /> This research framework and prototype contribute to the field of layout decision analysis and design by enabling explicit representation of experts? knowledge, formal modeling of fuzzy user preferences, and swift generation and manipulation of superior layout alternatives. Such efforts are expected to afford efficient procurement of superior outcomes and to facilitate cognitive, ergonomic, and economic efficiency of layout designers as well as future research in related areas. <br /><br /> Applications of this research are broad ranging including facilities layout design, VLSI circuit layout design, newspaper layout design, cutting and packing, adaptive user interfaces, dynamic memory allocation, multi-processor scheduling, metacomputing, etc.
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Sandström, Kristian. "A study of the iOS : An exploratory article on how large of a role the iOS has played in the success of the iPhone." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för informatik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-45210.
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The iPhone has become a top selling smartphone since its launch in 2007 and has along with its iOS (Apple's mobile operating system) overtaken many popular and established mobile phone brands in the ratings. Some competitors have not been able to provide a competing smartphone while others have grouped together to withstand the Apple onslaught. There are probably quite a few reasons why the iPhone has become such a success, and one could likely write a report solely about those reasons. I will focus on one of them in this study, maybe one of the most important reasons: the iPhone came with a revolutionizing user interface. I have studied iOS applications and their user interface components along with related research in order to try and find out what exactly makes it so attractive and also to uncover any flaws I might stumble across along the way. In order to answer this, and to gain a better insight into the iOS, I have developed an iPhone application from scratch covering all of the basic functionality usually found in any other iPhone application. The results will show that most of it seems to relate with Apple enforcing very strict rules and guidelines, along with limitations placed on the developer and the process as a whole. This strict process ends with Apple evaluators performing a review of the finished product, using their guidelines as heuristics. These guidelines will be proven to have scientific credibility, and the controlled development process will be a key to defining the iOS success.
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Lewis, John N. "Expert systems development utilizing heuristic methods." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/8376.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.<br>This thesis analyzes the diagnostic domain and isolates the heuristics employed
by experts to arrive at diagnostic solutions. These heuristic methods are then
generalized in order to arrive at a series of heuristic rules that can be applied to a wide
range of diagnostic processes independent of there respective domain. To test the
validity of the generalized heuristics, a prototype expert system was created targeting
the heuristics employed by avionics repair technicians in repair of the APS- 1 15 radar
system on the P-3C Orion.
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Park, SangHee. "Inoculation Information Against Contagious Disease Misperception about Flu with Heuristic vs. Systematic Information and Expert vs. Non-Expert Source." Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1446827113.
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Koort, Hannes. "Room for More of Us? : Important Design Features for Informed Decision-Making in BIM-enabled Facility Management." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Människa-datorinteraktion, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-447217.
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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is becoming imperative across building disciplines to improve communication and workflow from the first blueprint. Maintenance and facility management is however lagging behind in adoption and research of BIM. Utilizing research-through-design, this study explores BIM-enabled facility management and the critical practice of decision-making at the Celsius building in Uppsala. Contextual design and inquiry were applied to identify and suggest important design features that support decisions related to the task of establishing maximum room occupation. Results show that facility managers can make use of fuzzy multicriteria decision-making and expert heuristics to independently reach conclusions. Important design features were found to heavily rely on the existing building models, where context-view filtered to room capacity data in the existing BIM-system effectively supported the users’ assessment of data. The filtered, aggregated information presented in a simplified mobile format was insufficient for decision-making, suggesting that the building model was more important than initially perceived.
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Greer, Kieran R. C. "A neural network based search heuristic and its application to computer chess." Thesis, University of Ulster, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.243736.
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Krishnaswamy, Vijay. "Heuristic network generator : an expert systems approach for selection of alternative routes during incident conditions /." Thesis, This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-05022009-040559/.
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Silvis, Isabel Mariann. "Heuristic evaluation of the information architecture of academic library websites." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/63004.
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The main goal of this study was to do a heuristic evaluation of the information architecture
(IA) of the recently redesigned academic library website of the University of Pretoria and to
provide recommendations for improvement if necessary.
The main problem that is addressed by this study is that there is no comprehensive list of
heuristics for the purpose of evaluating the IA of academic library websites. This study used
various methods to address this problem and achieve the main goal.
A literature review resulted in a set of integrated usability heuristics that can be used to do a
heuristic evaluation of the IA of academic library websites. The set was created based on an
integration of existing usability principles from authorities in the field of usability. The
integrated set of existing principles was made applicable to academic library websites through
the addition of sub-criteria based on a review of twenty related studies.
A multiple-case study method was used for the heuristic evaluation of the library websites of
the top three universities in South Africa, i.e., University of Cape Town, University of the
Witwatersrand, and Stellenbosch University. The results of the multiple-case study method
were used to further adapt the list of principles. The heuristic evaluation method was used in
each of the case studies as a data collection method. Another case study was done, using the
same method and revised heuristics, to evaluate the usability of the library website of the
University of Pretoria and to provide recommendations.
The main outcomes of this study is a list of heuristics that can be used for the heuristic
evaluation of the IA of academic library websites, as well as a list of recommendations for the
improvement of the newly redesigned library website of the University of Pretoria. The list of
heuristics is not limited to academic library websites, however, as it can be adapted and
reused for the heuristic evaluation of other types of websites.<br>Dissertation (MIS)--University of Pretoria, 2017.<br>Information Science<br>MIS<br>Unrestricted
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Dixon, Walter L. "The Geometric Mean as a Generator of Truth-Value in Heuristic Expert Systems: An Improvement over the Fuzzy Weighted Arithmetic Mean." NSUWorks, 2002. http://nsuworks.nova.edu/gscis_etd/489.
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Many earlier expert systems that were modeled after MYCIN, the first expert system, employed truth-value factors for their rule antecedents (premises) and consequents (conclusions). These crisp truth-value factors were usually called certainty factors and attempted to provide a measure of confidence and computational capability to the analysis of rule uncertainty (Shortliffe, 1977; Kandel, 1994). However, in the literature criticism has been often expressed concerning the lack of precision a crisp truth/certainty factor value conveys (Zadeh, 1983; Turban, 1993). Zadeh (1973) and Xingui (1988) utilized the weighted fuzzy average algorithm to improve the precision of truth/certainty factor values. Kandel (1994) further extended the fuzzy weighted mean concept introducing rule confidence, priority, and conclusion weighting factors. Later, Chen (1996) further modified the fuzzy weighted mean algorithm through the factoring of independent rule premise and consequent weights, truth-values and certainty factors. All of these progressive variants of the fuzzy weighted mean enhanced perceived rule antecedent and consequent truth-value. This research investigated a modification of the fuzzy weighted algorithms of Chen and Kandel utilized in assessing heuristic expert system rule truth-value. Their algorithms were modified to demonstrate that a more statistically precise rule truth-value can be achieved by utilizing the geometric mean to aggregate rule truth-value components.
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Masini, Douglas Eugene. "The Accidental Experts: A Demonstration of the Existence, Utility, and Emergence of Implicitly Learned Tacit Knowledge in Assistive-Augmentative Technology Users." [Johnson City, Tenn. : East Tennessee State University], 2001. http://etd-submit.etsu.edu/etd/theses/available/etd-1108101-170203/unrestricted/masinid120601.pdf.
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Herrera, Luis Enrique. "Integration of qualitative and quantitative data for decision aiding in production planning." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/26614.
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Thesis (Ph.D)--Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.<br>Committee Chair: Govindaraj, T.; Committee Member: Jayaraman, Sundaresan; Committee Member: McGinnis, Leon; Committee Member: Tsui, Kwok; Committee Member: Zhou, Chen. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.
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Ong, Seow Meng. "A Mission Planning Expert System with Three-Dimensional Path Optimization for the NPS Model 2 Autonomous Underwater Vehicle." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/23457.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited<br>Unmanned vehicle technology has matured significantly over the last two decades. This is evidenced by its widespread use in industrial and military applications ranging from deep-ocean exploration to anti-submarine warefare. Indeed, the feasiblity of short-range, special-purpose vehicles (whether aunonomous or remotely operated) is no longer in question. The research efforts have now begun to shift their focus on development of reliable, longer-range, high-endurance and fully autonomous systems. One of the major underlying technologies required to realize this goal is Artificial Intelligence (AI). The latter offers great potential to endow vehicles with the intelligence needed for full autonomy and extended range capability; this involves the increased application of AI technologies to support mission planning and execution, navigation and contingency planning. This thesis addresses two issues associated with the above goal for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV's). Firstly, a new approach is proposed for path planning in underwater environments that is capable of dealing with uncharted obstacles and which requires significantly less planning time and computer memory. Secondly, it explores the use of expert system technology in the planning of AUV missions.
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Galinho, Thierry. "Algorithme heuristique de placement pour l'ordonnancement : étude comparative et recherche d'expertise sur les stratégies de contrôle." Rouen, 1994. http://www.theses.fr/1994ROUES040.
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Cette thèse présente l'étude des stratégies de contrôle utilisées par un algorithme heuristique de placement pour la résolution des problèmes d'ordonnancement d'ateliers de type job-shop. Dans ce type d'algorithme, la construction de l'ordonnancement est faite lot par lot et la prise en compte du lot suivant n'est possible qu'après le placement de toutes les opérations du lot précédent. Les stratégies interviennent à de nombreux niveaux dans l'algorithme utilisé par le module d'ordonnancement Fisias, tels que l'ordre de prise en compte des lots, le sens de jalonnement, le choix du poste permettant de traiter l'opération à insérer dans son plan de charge, le choix et la taille de la place sur le poste candidat, etc. Le choix des stratégies se fait une fois pour toutes en début de session, il conditionne de manière importante la qualité de la solution obtenue, vis-à-vis de critères tels que le retard cumulé, l'avance cumulée et le temps de cycle moyen. Cette étude comparative des stratégies a permis d'extraire l'expertise nécessaire à l'élaboration d'un système expert d'automatisation de la sélection de la stratégie appropriée aux objectifs. Ce système expert constitue l'un des deux modules du système stratège. L'autre module permet d'adapter la charge prévue (calculée par un module spécifique d'ordonnancement à capacité infinie) à la capacité réelle des centres de charge de l'atelier flexible
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Hathout, Michel. "Évaluation probabiliste de la fiabilité structurelle des digues fluviales à partir du jugement d’expert." Thesis, Paris Est, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PESC1005/document.
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Les digues de protection contre les inondations sont d’une importance stratégique incontournable pour la sécurité des personnes et des biens. Une meilleure connaissance de leur fiabilité structurelle constitue un enjeu majeur pour les ingénieurs et pour les gestionnaires de ces ouvrages afin de répondre aux réglementations en vigueur et potentiellement les faire évoluer. La réglementation en France relative à la sûreté des ouvrages hydrauliques exige la réalisation d’études de dangers, au sein desquelles les démarches probabilistes d’évaluation de la sécurité prennent une place de plus en plus importante. De par la complexité de leurs mécanismes de rupture et l’absence de condition d’état-limite précis pour certains mécanismes de défaillance tels que l’érosion interne, la surverse ou l’affouillement, le calcul d’une probabilité de défaillance par des approches quantitatives demeure à ce jour impossible. Les digues induisent des problématiques particulières pour l’évaluation de leur fiabilité structurelle où l’intervention d’experts s’avère nécessaire et centrale. Ceux-ci doivent procéder à l’interprétation des données disponibles et la prise en compte de leurs incertitudes, pour pouvoir ensuite évaluer la fiabilité structurelle de digues en termes de probabilité de défaillance. L’objectif de la thèse est l’élaboration d’une démarche complète d’aide à l’évaluation probabiliste de la fiabilité structurelle des digues à partir du jugement expert. Une démarche scientifiquement justifiée pour le recueil et l’exploitation des évaluations expertes, incertaines mais quantitatives, de la fiabilité structurelle des ouvrages, sous la forme d’une probabilité de défaillance ou d’un coefficient de sécurité, assorti(e) d’une marge d’incertitude probabiliste. Afin de répondre à cet objectif, deux démarches ont été développée, « EiCAD » et « EiDA », toutes reposant (dans des ordres différents) sur les phases suivantes :- Une phase d’élicitation individuelle des avis experts (Ei) permettant le recueil des évaluations expertes probabilistes par la construction d’un formulaire de questionnement ;- Une phase de calibration (C) permettant de pondérer les évaluations expertes en fonction des degrés de précision et de justesse ;- Une phase d’agrégation (A) permettant une prise en compte simultanée de plusieurs évaluations expertes probabilistes ;- Une phase de débiaisage (D) permettant de traiter les biais susceptibles d’entacher les évaluations expertes probabilistes. Les démarches développées ont été mises en œuvre sur des cas de digues du Drac, dans l’agglomération grenobloise, pour évaluer la probabilité de défaillance, par jugement expert, vis-à-vis de mécanisme de rupture par glissement et par érosion interne<br>River levees as protective measures against flooding are a matter of utmost strategic importance for the security of people and property. A better knowledge of their structural reliability is a major challenge for engineers and managers of these structures in order to meet current regulations and potentially develop them. In France, the regulations relating to the safety of hydraulic structures require the realization of hazard studies, in which probabilistic safety evaluation procedures take on a more and more important role. Due to the complexity of their failure mechanisms and the lack of a specific condition of limit-state for some failure mechanisms such as internal erosion and overtopping or scour, calculating a probability of failure by quantitative approaches remains impossible to this day. Levees induce specific problems in evaluating their structural reliability where expert intervention is necessary and pivotal. They must interpret the available data and take into account the uncertainties in their analysis, in order to evaluate the structural reliability of levees in terms of probability of failure. The aim of the thesis is to develop and elaborate a complete approach for supporting probabilistic evaluation of structural reliability of levees based on expert judgments. It is designed as a scientifically justified approach to collect and use uncertain but quantitative expert evaluations of structural reliability, in the form of a failure probability or a safety factor, accompanied by a margin of probabilistic uncertainty. To meet this goal, two approaches have been developed, "EiCAD" and "EiDA" composed of the following phases (in different orders):- individual elicitation phase of expert judgment (Ei) allowing the collection of probabilistic expert evaluations by a constricted questionnaire ;- calibration phase (C) to weigh the probabilistic expert evaluations elicited depending on the degrees of precision and accuracy that can be provided;- aggregation phase (A) during which the probabilistic expert evaluations elicited by several experts are taken into account ;- debiasing phase (D) during which biases that may affect the probabilistic expert evaluations are removed. The developed approaches have been implemented for the cases of Drac levees, located in the Grenoble agglomeration, to assess the probability of failure, by expert judgment, with regard to sliding and internal erosion mechanism of failure
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Andersson, Åsa, and Abdiqafar Ismail. "Ruttoptimering : En jämförelse mellan mänsklig erfarenhet och optimeringsprogram." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-30846.
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Route optimization aims to optimize routes for vehicles withregards to resource usage. Especially when the vehicle needsto visit multiple customers on the route, a route optimizationtool is beneficiary. The purpose of this study is to comparehuman experience with a route optimization program. This isdone by comparing how a truck driver makes his routes to theroute a GIS-tool has calculated and then see which of theroutes was shorter, measured in kilometers. The data for thisstudy was gathered from a big shipping company. In order toachieve the purpose of this study 10 routes were analysed bya GIS program called ArcGIS. The algorithm used by ArcGISin route optimization is tabu search, this type of program wasused because it is based on heuristic methods that is muchfaster than exact methods. Expert systems are based onknowledge from experts that have been accumulated duringmany years of experience. Providing recommendations basedon probability reasoning instead of absolute answer. Thesekind of systems is often used in GIS programs to improveresults and calculation time. The aim of this study wasanalyze if a optimization program finds a better route than theexpert. This study shows an improvement of 60% of theanalyzed routes. To verify the results of this study anhypothesis test was made which gave a level of significanceby more than 85 %. The routes were optimized to a certainextent even before the study was done due to the driveralready being familiar with the routes in question. Because ofthis the results of this study were lower compared to othersimilar studies. Another reason may be that the coordinatesgiven to us did not always correspond perfectly with actuallocation of the stops.<br>Ruttoptimering avser att optimera rutter för fordon medminsta möjliga resursåtgång. När fordonet ska besöka ettflertal givna platser är ett ruttoptimeringsverktyg förmånligtatt använda. Denna studie syftar till att jämföra den mänskligaerfarenheten mot ett ruttoptimeringsprogram. Detta har gjortsgenom att jämföra hur en lastbilschaufför har kört en rutt mothur ett GIS-verktyg räknat fram den optimerade färdvägen avsamma rutt. Sedan jämfördes om det fanns skillnader ochvilken av rutterna som var kortast, räknat i kilometer. Datahar hämtats från ett stort fraktföretag. För att nå syftet har 10rutter undersökts i programmet ArcGIS Online som använderalgoritmen tabusökning. En kommersiell beräkningsmetodhar använts då det bygger på heuristiska metoder som ärbetydligt snabbare än exakta metoder. Expertsystem byggerpå erfarenhet som experter har samlat på sig genom åren, deger rekommendationer baserade på sannolikhetsresonemangistället för definitiva svar, dessa system sätts ofta in i GIS för att förbättra resultat och beräkningstider i systemen. Studienresulterade i en förbättring på 60 % av rutterna. Målet meddenna undersökning var att visa om ett optimeringsprogramhittar en bättre rutt än experten. För att verifiera resultaten istudien gjordes en hypotesprövning vilket gav ensignifikansnivå på över 85%. Chauffören har kört dessa rutteri flera år vilket gör att rutterna är optimerade i en viss månredan innan studien gjordes. Det har inverkat på resultatetsom gett ett lågt medelvärde av den procentuella skillnaden,jämfört med tidigare undersökningar. En annan faktor kanvara att koordinaterna i datan från företaget inte helt stämdemed den verkliga placeringen av stoppen på rutterna.
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Nooriafshar, Mehryar. "A heuristic approach to improving the design of nurse training schedules, using simulation and expert system ideas with particular reference to the transition period." Thesis, University of Manchester, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.261995.
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Wahbi, Mohamed. "Algorithms and Ordering Heuristics for Distributed Constraint Satisfaction Problems." Phd thesis, Université Montpellier II - Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00718537.
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Les problèmes de satisfaction de contraintes distribués (DisCSP) permettent de formaliser divers problèmes qui se situent dans l'intelligence artificielle distribuée. Ces problèmes consistent à trouver une combinaison cohérente des actions de plusieurs agents. Durant cette thèse nous avons apporté plusieurs contributions dans le cadre des DisCSPs. Premièrement, nous avons proposé le Nogood-Based Asynchronous Forward-Checking (AFC-ng). Dans AFC-ng, les agents utilisent les nogoods pour justifier chaque suppression d'une valeur du domaine de chaque variable. Outre l'utilisation des nogoods, plusieurs backtracks simultanés venant de différents agents vers différentes destinations sont autorisés. En deuxième lieu, nous exploitons les caractéristiques intrinsèques du réseau de contraintes pour exécuter plusieurs processus de recherche AFC-ng d'une manière asynchrone à travers chaque branche du pseudo-arborescence obtenu à partir du graphe de contraintes dans l'algorithme Asynchronous Forward-Checking Tree (AFC-tree). Puis, nous proposons deux nouveaux algorithmes de recherche synchrones basés sur le même mécanisme que notre AFC-ng. Cependant, au lieu de maintenir le forward checking sur les agents non encore instanciés, nous proposons de maintenir la consistance d'arc. Ensuite, nous proposons Agile Asynchronous Backtracking (Agile-ABT), un algorithme de changement d'ordre asynchrone qui s'affranchit des restrictions habituelles des algorithmes de backtracking asynchrone. Puis, nous avons proposé une nouvelle méthode correcte pour comparer les ordres dans ABT_DO-Retro. Cette méthode détermine l'ordre le plus pertinent en comparant les indices des agents dès que les compteurs d'une position donnée dans le timestamp sont égaux. Finalement, nous présentons une nouvelle version entièrement restructurée de la plateforme DisChoco pour résoudre les problèmes de satisfaction et d'optimisation de contraintes distribués.
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Glossenger, John Kenneth. "The role of planning in two artificial intelligence architectures." Instructions for remote access. Click here to access this electronic resource. Access available to Kutztown University faculty, staff, and students only, 1991. http://www.kutztown.edu/library/services/remote_access.asp.
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Arthur, J. G. "The development of 'for experts systems' as heuristic reasoning platforms in risk decision support : a consideration of tool design, technology transfer and compatability with Bayesian decision analysis." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2007. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/1116/.
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This work considers the creation of two risk and decision support systems, one for the National Air Traffic Services of the UK and one for Unilever, a multi-national. Their development contributes to risk decision science in the area of decision support in particular. This contribution is based on the development real-life systems, it has three key elements. One, it addresses the fact that, for practical environments like these, the science of risk and decisions is insufficiently resolved to be accepted and easily used. Two, the systems share an arena with subjective Bayesian decision analysis. The benefits of a hybrid form of the two approaches to generate higher levels of user acceptance and organisational transfer is discussed. Three, they take the unique approach of being 'for experts' systems rather than 'expert systems'. This approach offers a number of benefits to applied user communities. These include: a decision support system which remains grounded within the reasoning world view of the decision makers; an expansion and refinement of the existing 'natural heuristics' that decision makers use currently; a scoring and visualisation environment which is both fast and flexible but allows for, previously unavailable, levels of reasoning transparency and comparison. Taken in total the combination of the tool design, the heuristic artefacts within them and their influence on the hosts organisations, the two systems have proven they can provide an effective and valued 'heuristic reasoning platform' for risks and issues. A future research direction is to explore ways in which the highly transferable heuristic artefacts in these systems, particularly measurement and data manipulation, might be strengthened via hybridisation with more powerful, but less transferred, formal systems like Bayes decision analysis.
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Morice, Vincent. "Saga : un generateur temporel de plans pour la recherche diagnostique." Paris 6, 1988. http://www.theses.fr/1988PA066426.
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L'objectif de saga est de determiner la sequence des examens complementaires a effectuer pour un patient donne, afin de pouvoir prendre, le plus rapidement possible, une decision therapeutique adaptee qui minimise les couts
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Brassard, Serge. "Méthodologie et modélisation floues des connaissances dans l'activité de conception en électrotechnique : application à la réalisation d'un système expert d'aide à la conception de l'appareillage électrique." Grenoble INPG, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989INPG0093.
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La conception de l'appareillage électrique relève dune méthodologie généralement fort complexe. Les problèmes posés par la conception de l'appareillage électrique sont analysés et montrent l'inefficacité des méthodes mathématiques. Une approche ensembliste floue est exposée et permet de modéliser l'aspect heuristique du problème ainsi que les aspects scientifiques et industriels de la conception. Un système expert d'aide à la conception des disjoncteurs à arc tournant a été réalisé. Les résultats obtenus sont commentés et montrent l'intérêt d'une telle approche
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Garcia-Mardambek, Nouar. "Etude d'une stratégie de maintenance adaptative pour des systèmes logiques." Grenoble INPG, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991INPG0076.
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La complexité des équipements numériques entraîne une difficulté croissante des tâches de vérification de ces équipements tout au long de leur vie: conception, production, industrialisation et maintenance. Chacune de ces étapes induit des modes de défaillances spécifiques et nécessite des méthodes de vérification adaptées. Alors que des méthodes et outils de génération de test ont été développés pour les étapes de conception et production, les vérifications en phase opérationnelle sont restées très empiriques, et font largement appel à l'expertise des ingénieurs de maintenance. C'est pourquoi nous nous sommes intéressés à la maintenance préventive/curative des systèmes numériques. L'objectif était de concevoir une stratégie qui organise l'exécution de fonctions élémentaires de test en fonction du type de vérification (prévention, correction) et des contraintes à prendre en compte. Cette stratégie fournit une spécification fonctionnelle du programme de maintenance. Le problème rencontré est équivalent à un problème de couverture d'une matrice booléenne. Nous avons proposé et validé: ― des méthodes de résolution classique: multiplication directe, branchement par ligne et par colonne, arbre sémantique; le problème à résoudre est équivalent à un problème de conversion d'une formule normale conjonctive en une formule normale équivalente disjonctive (CFN-DFN). C'est un problème NP-complet. Ces méthodes de résolution fournissent toutes les solutions minimales en minimisant la complexité des algorithmes appliqués et le temps de calcul nécessaire; ― une méthode heuristique fondée sur des techniques d'Intelligence Artificielle: ce type de résolution fournit une solution optimale par rapport à un ensemble de critères donnés. Un certain nombre de systèmes à base de techniques d'I. A. Ayant été développés dans les différents domaines du test: diagnostic, génération des stimuli, maintenance et réparation, nous avons mené une analyse comparative et fait une synthèse sur l'ensemble des solutions de type système expert. Le système OPS5, à base de productions, a été utilisé pour la programmation de ces différentes méthodes, et leur validation sur des cartes réelles
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"Experts Recommender System Using Technical and Social Heuristics." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10388/ETD-2013-07-1116.
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Nowadays, successful cooperation and collaboration among developers is crucial to build
successful projects in distributed software system development (DSSD). Assigning wrong
developers to a specific task not only affects the performance of a component of this task but
also affects other components since these projects are composed of dependent components.
Another aspect that should be considered when teams are built is the social relationships between
the members; disagreements between these members also affect the project team’s performance.
These two aspects might cause a project’s failure or delay. Therefore, they are important to
consider when teams are created. In this thesis, we developed an Expert Recommender System
Framework (ERSF) that assists developers (Active Developers) to find experts who can help
them complete or fix the bugs in the code at hand. The ERSF analyzes the developer technical
expertise on similar code fragments to the one they need help on assuming that those who have
worked on similar fragments might understand and help the Active Developer; also, it analyzes
their social relationships with the Active Developer as well as their social activities within the
DSSD. Our work is also concerned with improving the system performance and
recommendations by tracking the developer communications through our ERSF in order to keep
developer profiles up-to-date. Technical expertise and sociality are measured using a
combination of technical and social heuristics. The recommender system was tested using
scenarios derived from real software development data, and its recommendations compared
favourably to recommendations that humans were asked to make in the same scenarios; also,
they were compared to the recommendations of the NaiveBayes and other machine learning
algorithms. Our experiment results show that ERSF can recommend experts with good to
excellent accuracy.
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ALJohani, Maha. "Heuristic Evaluation of Dalhousie Repository Interface." 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10222/31498.
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The number of Institutional Repositories (IRs), such as DalSpace, has been growing in the past few years. However, most IRs are not widely used by the intended end users. Evaluating the user interfaces is an essential part of any process to increase users' acceptance of IRs. There are two foci of this thesis: to evaluate the usability of DalSpace's interface using Nielsen's heuristics to uncover usability problems for development purposes and to examine the differences between user-interface experts and non-experts in uncovering problems with the interface.
To apply the heuristics to the interface, I formed user profiles (also known as personas) to represent potential end-users groups. These profiles helped to communicate users' needs, abilities, tasks, and problems. To produce a reliable list of usability problems by applying the heuristic evaluation approach, I examined the impact of expertise on the quality of the results. From the individual heuristic analyses (by both experts and novices), I distilled 66 usability problems classified by severity. Also, the frequency of each violated heuristic was used to assign priority to the uncovered usability problems as well as the severity level.
The results of applying the heuristic evaluation show that both experts and non-experts can uncover usability problems. In fact, the ability to find difficult and easy problems was recorded for both types of evaluators. However, experts tend to reveal more serious problems, while novices uncover less severe problems. Interestingly, the best evaluator (who found 21% of the total number of problems) was a novice. Our results indicate that we cannot rely on one evaluator even if the evaluator is an expert.
The administrative interface is out of the scope of the thesis; however, the usability of the interface should be examined for improvement purposes. More user profiles should be formed to represent additional user groups for more interfaces including the end user and staff's interfaces. Both results from the user profiles and the list of usability problems will be given as tools to the development team for improvement.
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Chung, Clare K. "Expert systems for personal investment management : a simplified objective approach using heuristic knowledge." 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1993/17014.
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HU, GUANG-GUAN, and 胡光權. "An expert system building tool with meta ability part II:learning control strategy with heuristic information." Thesis, 1989. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65258852591274403520.
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Pietrocatelli, Simon. "Analyse bayésienne et élicitation d’opinions d’experts en analyse de risques et particulièrement dans le cas de l’amiante chrysotile." Thèse, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/3345.
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L’appréciation de la puissance cancérogène des fibres d’amiante chrysotile
repose en grande partie sur des jugements subjectifs et incertains des
experts et des analystes en raison des résultats hétérogènes et équivoques
d’études épidémiologiques et toxicologiques sérieuses. L’approche
probabiliste bayésienne en évaluation de risques peut formaliser l’impact des
jugements subjectifs et de leurs incertitudes sur les estimations de risques,
mais elle est encore peu utilisée en santé publique. Le présent travail
examine la possibilité d’appliquer l’approche bayésienne dans une récente
élicitation d’opinions d’experts pour estimer la toxicité du chrysotile, le degré
de consensus et de divergence, ainsi que les niveaux d’incertitude des
experts. Les estimations des experts concordaient assez bien sur la
différence de toxicité entre chrysotile et amphiboles pour les mésothéliomes.
Pour le cancer du poumon, les évaluations probabilistes étaient bien plus
disparates. Dans ce cas, les jugements des experts semblaient influencés à
différents degrés par des biais heuristiques, surtout les heuristiques d’affect
et d’ancrage liés à la controverse du sujet et à l’hétérogénéité des données.
Une méthodologie rigoureuse de préparation des experts à l’exercice
d’élicitation aurait pu réduire l’impact des biais et des heuristiques sur le
panel.<br>Characterizing the carcinogenic potency of chrysotile asbestos fibres relies a
great deal on subjective and uncertain judgements by experts and analysts,
given heterogeneous and equivocal results of important epidemiological and
toxicological studies. The probabilistic Bayesian approach in risk
assessments quantifies these subjective judgements and their uncertainties,
along with their impact on risk estimations, but it is rarely used in the public
health context. This report examines how the Bayesian approach could have
been applied to a recent elicitation of experts’ opinions to estimate the toxicity
of chrysotile asbestos, the degree of convergence and divergence, as well as
the uncertainty levels of these experts. The experts’ estimations on the
relative toxicity of chrysotile and amphibole asbestos were similar in the case
of mesothelioma. However, in the case of lung cancer, the heterogeneity of
the studies resulted in diverging and incompatible probabilistic evaluations.
The experts’ judgements seemed influenced by heuristic biases, particularly
the affect and anchor heuristics associated with a controversial topic and to
heterogeneous data. If the elicitation process had been prepared following a
rigorous methodology, these heuristics and biases could have been mitigated.