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Journal articles on the topic 'Expected price'

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Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 19 February 2023

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1

Caskey, Judson, John S. Hughes, and Jun Liu. "Strategic Informed Trades, Diversification, and Expected Returns." Accounting Review 90, no. 5 (January 1, 2015): 1811–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/accr-51026.

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ABSTRACT We examine how strategic trade affects expected returns in a large economy. In our model, both a monopolist (strategic) informed trader and uninformed traders consider the impact of their demands on prices. In contrast to settings with price-taking traders, private information never eliminates a priced risk, and can lead to higher risk premiums. Also unlike settings with price-taking informed traders, risk premiums decrease in response to an increase in liquidity-motivated trades in diversified portfolios. These differing effects arise because a privately informed strategic trader conceals her trades by taking small positions relative to the magnitude of noise trades. Although prices partially reveal her information and reduce uncertainty, a concomitant decrease in her risk absorption dominates and leads to higher risk premiums. Similar to settings with price-taking traders, private information affects expected returns only via factor loadings and risk premiums on existing payoff risks—it introduces no new priced risks, and factor loadings (betas) explain all cross-sectional differences in expected returns.

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2

Adam, Klaus, Albert Marcet, and Johannes Beutel. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains." American Economic Review 107, no. 8 (August 1, 2017): 2352–408. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20140205.

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Investors' subjective capital gains expectations are a key element explaining stock price fluctuations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism (pessimism) at market peaks (troughs). We formally reject the hypothesis that this is compatible with rational expectations. We then incorporate subjective price beliefs with such properties into a standard asset-pricing model with rational agents (internal rationality). The model gives rise to boom-bust cycles that temporarily delink stock prices from fundamentals and quantitatively replicates many asset-pricing moments. In particular, it matches the observed strong positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and survey return expectations, which cannot be matched by rational expectations. (JEL D83, D84, G12, G14)

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3

Kalwani, Manohar U., and Chi Kin Yim. "Consumer Price and Promotion Expectations: An Experimental Study." Journal of Marketing Research 29, no. 1 (February 1992): 90–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002224379202900108.

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The authors report results from a controlled experiment designed to investigate the impact of a brand's price promotion frequency and the depth of promotional price discounts on the price consumers expect to pay for that brand. A key feature of the work is that expected prices elicited directly from respondents in the experiment are used in the analysis, as opposed to the latent or surrogate measures of expected prices used in previous studies. As hypothesized, both the promotion frequency and the depth of price discounts are found to have a significant impact on price expectations. Evidence also supports a region of relative price insensitivity around the expected price, such that only price changes outside that region have a significant impact on consumer brand choice. Further, the authors find that consumer expectations of both price and promotional activities should be considered in explaining consumer brand choice behavior. Specifically, the presence of a promotional deal when one is not expected or the absence of a promotional deal when one is expected may have a significant impact on consumer brand choice. Finally, as in the case of price expectations, consumer response to promotion expectations is found to be asymmetric in that losses loom larger than gains.

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4

Borghesi, Richard. "AN EXAMINATION OF PREDICTION MARKET EFFICIENCY: NBA CONTRACTS ON TRADESPORTS." Journal of Prediction Markets 3, no. 2 (December 17, 2012): 65–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v3i2.462.

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In this paper I examine the absolute and relative price efficiency of NBA options listed on Tradesports.com. I find that contracts within specific price bands are misvalued, but also demonstrate that this market is more efficient than is the market for NFL options. Specifically, I show that contracts priced around $25 win (expire at $100) at a rate less than expected, while those priced around $75 win at a rate greater than expected. The magnitudes of these deviations between prices and fundamental values are less than those in the NFL market. Also, while prior theoretical work predicts that low-priced contracts should be overpriced, I instead find that NBA contracts priced near $2.50 win more frequently than expected.I thank Rob Dougherty and Brijesh Patel for assistance with the NBA event data, and Leighton Vaughan Williams for meaningful suggestions throughout. Any errors are strictly my own.

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5

Holland, Dawn, Ray Barrell, Aurélie Delannoy, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Ali Orazgani, and Paweł Paluchowski. "World Overview and European Sovereign Debt." National Institute Economic Review 215 (January 2011): F10—F15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0027950111401130.

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Short-tem inflationary pressures have risen on a global scale in recent months and, given the source of the impulse is commodity markets, this dampens the prospects for growth in 2011 in most countries. Global food prices have been under pressure since July 2010, reflecting poor harvests in many parts of the world. Metals prices have also risen rapidly, while non-food agricultural price inflation accelerated towards the end of the year. We expect average food and other agricultural prices in 2011 to be more than 25 per cent higher than they were in 2010, while metals prices are expected to be more than 30 per cent above last year's average level, as shown in figure 1. The price of oil exhibited moderate inflation through September 2010, but rose sharply in the final quarter of the year. The rise in the price of oil may be a reflection of demand pressures from countries such as China and India, as well as the recovery in demand from advanced economies, while the weakness of the US dollar and an expected tightening of regulation following recent oil spills may also be adding to price pressures. The price of Brent crude currently stands at over $98 per barrel, roughly $19 per barrel higher than was priced into futures markets three months ago. Barrell, Delannoy and Holland discuss the macroeconomic implications of the recent rise in the oil price elsewhere in this Review. If sustained we expect this to reduce growth in the OECD by about ½ per cent this year. The impact on oil-intensive emerging economies such as China and India may be slightly greater, while oil exporters gain from the high price.

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6

Biswas, Tapan, and Jolian McHardy. "Asking Price and Price Discounts: the Strategy of Selling an Asset under Price Uncertainty." Review of Economic Analysis 4, no. 1 (May 22, 2012): 17–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.15353/rea.v4i1.1532.

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We consider fixed and asking price strategies in the context of selling an asset with Bernoullian updating of the seller’s subjective probability of sale at a given price. The determination of optimal fixed, asking and endogenous reservation prices is discussed under risk-neutrality and expected utility maximisation. With risk-neutrality, the optimal asking price exceeds the optimal fixed price when the expected gain is a strictly concave function. The seller’s choice between the fixed and the asking price strategies depends on several factors: the expected cost of haggling, price competition and the seller’s attitude towards risk.

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7

Jindapon, Paan, and W. Douglass Shaw. "Option price without expected utility." Economics Letters 100, no. 3 (September 2008): 408–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2008.03.006.

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8

Prager, Elena. "Healthcare Demand under Simple Prices: Evidence from Tiered Hospital Networks." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 12, no. 4 (October 1, 2020): 196–223. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.20180422.

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This paper shows that consumers respond to prices for complex healthcare when they can easily assess out-of-pocket prices. Healthcare cost containment efforts increasingly incentivize price shopping despite a dearth of evidence that this steers consumers toward lower-priced care for major medical services. I show that consumers shift toward lower-priced hospitals in the highly simplified price information environment of insurance plans with tiered hospital networks. Consumers observe a single predictable, well-defined price that applies to a broad range of services within each of at most three hospital tiers. Within three years, expected partial-equilibrium savings reach 8–17 percent of baseline spending. (JEL G22, H75, I11, I13)

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9

Davison, Cecil W., and Brad Crowder. "Northeast Soybean Acreage Response Using Expected Net Returns." Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 20, no. 1 (April 1991): 33–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0899367x0000283x.

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Expected prices and expected net returns from cropping activities are used to estimate soybean acreage response in the Northeast. Futures prices and lagged cash prices constitute proxies for price expectations. Expected net returns appear as good or better than expected prices for estimating acreage response. Short-run and long-run elasticities of soybean acreage with respect to expected net returns from soybeans are estimated as 0.5 and 1.6 for the northeast region. Soybean acreage appears less responsive to changes in expected net returns than to expected changes in prices.

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10

Kim, Hyun Soo. "Simulating Asset Price Based on the Investor’s Expected Price." Journal of Business Convergence 7, no. 1 (February 28, 2022): 93–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.31152/jb.2022.02.7.1.93.

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11

Shideed, Kamil H., Fred C. White, and Stephen J. Brannen. "The Responsiveness of U.S. Corn and Soybean Acreages to Conditional Price Expectations: An Application to the 1985 Farm Bill." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 19, no. 2 (December 1987): 153–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0081305200025425.

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AbstractNaive and adaptive schemes have been used as proxies for price expectations in previous studies of supply response. Those studies contain mixed formulas of futures, support, and lagged prices as alternative formulations for price expectations. This study uses a conditional expected price which combines both market and support prices into one price expectations measure. It defines the total effect of available information on supply response. The results indicate the potential usefulness of formulating expected prices as conditional price expectations in supply response analysis, with support prices being the conditional set. Under the provisions of the 1985 Farm Bill, significant reductions in corn and soybean acreages are in prospect for 1987-90.

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12

Palkar, Darshana D., and Stephen E. Wilcox. "Equity Price Sensitivity and Expected Inflation." Journal of Investing 21, no. 3 (August 31, 2012): 24–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/joi.2012.21.3.024.

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13

Tada, Minoru. "Econometric analysis of expected price formation." Agricultural Economics 5, no. 1 (January 1991): 59–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.1991.tb00135.x.

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14

Tada, M. "Econometric analysis of expected price formation." Agricultural Economics 5, no. 1 (January 1991): 59–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-5150(91)90036-k.

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15

Neilson, William S. "Second Price Auctions without Expected Utility." Journal of Economic Theory 62, no. 1 (February 1994): 136–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1994.1007.

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16

Sinha, Rajesh Kumar, and Atanu Adhikari. "Advertised reference price and sales price as anchors of the latitude of expected price and its impact on purchase intention." European Journal of Marketing 51, no. 9/10 (September 12, 2017): 1597–611. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ejm-03-2016-0177.

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Purpose This paper aims to investigate the influence of advertised reference price (ARP) and sales price (SP) as anchor points on the latitude of expected price, and subsequently on purchase intention (PI). The research involves the theoretical lens of selective anchoring mechanism, which allows investigation of the influence of ARP and SP in a situation where price estimation task is a “non-thoughtful processes”. Design/methodology/approach On the basis of quasi-experimental design, the study involves intercept survey of 142 shoppers. Findings The study finds that due to anchoring effect, the highest and the lowest expected prices shift toward ARP and SP, respectively. Consequently, it influences the latitude of expected price, which in turn influences purchase intention. In addition, the study proposes and tests a method to forecast expansion and contraction of the latitude of expected price. Research limitations/implications It suggests a new mechanism to understand the simultaneous influence of ARP and SP, provides a mechanism to understand shifts in price latitude’s end-points and investigates a phenomenon with two externally provided anchors. Practical implications The study highlights the role of the latitude of expected price in understanding consumers’ response. Results suggest that a plausible ARP, when joined with an above-expectation SP, can fetch better consumer responses. Originality/value The study uniquely investigates a problem with two anchor points and two estimation targets, and proposes a construct of internal price uncertainty (IPU).

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17

Lowe, Ben, Fanny Chan Fong Yee, and Pamela Yeow. "Price promotions and their effect upon reference prices." Journal of Product & Brand Management 23, no. 4/5 (August 18, 2014): 349–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpbm-01-2014-0485.

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Purpose – The purpose of this study is to resolve inconsistencies in the literature about how one-time price promotions affect reference prices. Specifically, this study suggests that the measure of reference price used within a study (e.g. expected price or fair price) can affect the outcomes of that study. Design/methodology/approach – This research uses three separate experiments, replicating and extending existing work, to simulate purchasing decisions for products in the context of a price promotion. Experiments allow careful control of the confounds presumed to cause the inconsistencies between studies. Findings – Study 1 shows that measurement of different reference prices within the same experiment leads to carryover effects, which inflate the correlation between measures. Expected price and fair price appear to be conceptually and empirically distinct and should be measured separately to reduce design artifacts. Study 2 shows that one-time price promotions affect fair price, but not expected price, and Study 3 shows expected price and fair price converge after multiple promotions. Research limitations/implications – Independent measurement of reference price concepts allows robust claims about their distinctiveness. These findings have implications for how reference price should be measured in survey research and for pricing and promotional strategy. Originality/value – This research contributes by showing how the measure of reference price used affects the outcomes of price promotion studies. It does this through the replication and extension of past research. Replication allows greater confidence in the findings of past research, and testing the same findings under different conditions allows for the boundaries of existing research to be delimited and generalizations to be made.

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18

Rytchkov, Oleg. "Filtering Out Expected Dividends and Expected Returns." Quarterly Journal of Finance 02, no. 03 (September 2012): 1250012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010139212500127.

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This paper applies a state space approach to the analysis of stock return predictability. It acknowledges that expected returns and expected dividends are unobservable and uses the Kalman filter to extract them from the observed history of realized dividends and returns. The suggested approach explicitly takes into account the time variation in expected dividend growth rates and exploits the present value relation. The obtained predictors for future returns are robust to structural breaks in the means of expected dividends and returns and more efficient than the dividend–price ratio. The likelihood ratio test reliably rejects the hypothesis of constant expected returns.

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19

Hyde, Charles E. "CROP INSURANCE: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDEMNITY PRICE AND EXPECTED OUTPUT PRICE." Journal of Agricultural Economics 47, no. 1-4 (January 1996): 236–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.1996.tb00687.x.

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20

Danes, Jeffrey E., and Joan Lindsey‐Mullikin. "Expected product price as a function of factors of price sensitivity." Journal of Product & Brand Management 21, no. 4 (July 13, 2012): 293–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/10610421211246702.

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21

Hong, Jengei. "An Index for Expected House Price Change." Journal of Korea Real Estate Analysists Association 24, no. 2 (June 30, 2018): 75–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.19172/kreaa.24.2.6.

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22

Ho, Kung-Cheng, Shih-Cheng Lee, and Ping-Wen Sun. "Disclosure quality, price efficiency, and expected returns." North American Journal of Economics and Finance 59 (January 2022): 101573. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2021.101573.

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23

Song, Seongjoo, and Jongwoo Song. "Asymptotic option price with bounded expected loss." Journal of the Korean Statistical Society 37, no. 4 (December 2008): 323–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jkss.2008.02.004.

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24

Madan, Dilip B. "Efficient estimation of expected stock price returns." Finance Research Letters 23 (November 2017): 31–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.08.001.

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25

BHANUMURTHY, N. R., PAMI DUA, and LOKENDRA KUMAWAT. "WEATHER SHOCKS AND AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES IN INDIA." Climate Change Economics 04, no. 03 (August 2013): 1350011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813500115.

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We analyze the impact of weather shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks to short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. Hitherto, the price discovery mechanism was weak and end price was expected to be different (mostly higher unless some product prices were administered) from the market-clearing price. In addition, this weak mechanism was expected to result in higher price volatility. The introduction of a futures market is expected to reduce risk, a major component in agricultural production as well as in price formation. Though the commodity futures market in India is nascent, we model transmission of weather shocks to futures and spot prices using monthly data. Based on cointegration analysis, our results suggest strong long-run co-movement between futures prices and spot prices for commodities traded in futures markets. Changes in rainfall affect both futures and spot prices with different lags. However, rainfall shocks generate larger responses from futures prices than from spot prices. Although there could be other factors that affect futures prices, after controlling for fuel prices, our results clearly show the transmission mechanism of weather shocks from futures to spot prices. We also explore the changes in responsiveness of prices of major agricultural commodities to rainfall with introduction of futures contracts to facilitate the pass-through of various types of shocks to agricultural commodity prices. Using smooth transition regression, we find that the bivariate relationships between rainfall and prices of rice, wheat and pulses show some nonlinearity with the structural change happening after the introduction of futures market. These relations are found to be much stronger in the post-structural change period that broadly coincides with the introduction of futures market.

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BWALA, M. A., Y. ROSAINE, and S. BAUER. "RISK PERCEPTION AMONG FARM HOUSEHOLDS IN NORTH CENTRAL REGION OF NIGERIA: A LOWER PARTIAL MOMENT APPROACH." Journal of Agricultural Science and Environment 15, no. 1 (March 2, 2016): 48–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.51406/jagse.v15i1.1473.

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This study investigated the perception of production and price risk by farm households and the factors that influence their level of perception in North Central Nigeria. The study attempted to capture the opinion of farmers about the quantity of crops they expect to harvest at the end of the season, and the prices they also expect for each of the crop cultivated. It was confirmed that the households do have an opinion for the quantity of crops outputs cultivated and also for the price they expect at the end of every season. The study established that farm households do give negative allowances regarding the quantity expected of a crop for a particular land cultivated, this is also true for prices expected. In other words farm households were found to be aware of the possibility that the final output they get from their farming activity may not commensurate with the inputs invested and so therefore expect less than what should be the potential. Furthermore, it was discovered that household crop specific risk percep- tion varies within the region. Majority of the farm households perceived higher price risks for sorghum, rice, and yam crops.

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27

Evatt, G. W., P. V. Johnson, P. W. Duck, S. D. Howell, and J. Moriarty. "The expected lifetime of an extraction project." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 467, no. 2125 (July 28, 2010): 244–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2010.0247.

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When a mining company begins extraction from a finite resource, it does so in the presence of numerous uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the future price of the commodity being extracted, since a large enough drop in price can make a resource no longer cost-effective to extract, resulting in the mine being closed down. By specifying a stochastic price process, and implementing a financial-type model which leads to the use of partial differential equations, this paper creates the framework for efficiently capturing the probability of a mine remaining open throughout its planned extraction period, and derives the associated expected lifetime of extraction. An approximation to the abandonment price is described, which enables a closed-form solution to be derived for the probability of operational success and expected lifetime. This approximation compares well with the full solution obtained using a semi-Lagrangian numerical technique.

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28

Stühmeier, Torben. "Price Disclosure Rules and Consumer Price Comparison." B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 15, no. 2 (April 1, 2015): 815–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2014-0053.

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Abstract Search frictions are regarded as a major impediment to active competition in many markets. In some markets, such as financial and retail gasoline, governments and consumer protection agencies call for compulsory price reporting. Consumers could then more easily compare the firms’ offers. We show that for a given level of price comparison, mandatory price reporting indeed generally benefits consumers. Such regulation, however, feeds back into firms’ strategies, resulting in lower levels of price comparison in equilibrium. This effect may dominate so that the regulation leads to higher expected market prices.

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29

Li, Jun, Sifan Wu, and Xiaoman Feng. "Optimization of On-Street Parking Charges Based on Price Elasticity of the Expected Perceived Parking Cost." Sustainability 13, no. 10 (May 20, 2021): 5735. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13105735.

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Price discrimination is widely employed to regulate on-street parking behaviors to provide better service to users, and the prices are usually set according to the occupancy of parking spaces without direct consideration of user perception. A binary logit-style choice model is built to describe the parking choice between on-street parking and off-street parking. A new index, named the price elasticity of expected perceived parking cost, is proposed to evaluate users’ response to parking charge. Based on the theory of second-degree price discrimination, three user types are defined according to the parking duration, namely, the preferred users, the neutral users, and the non-preferred users. The optimized parking prices are calculated by the proposed index. A case study of Guangzhou’s on-street parking is presented. It is found that the current pricing scheme for Type-I Zones (High Demand Zones) is reasonable, while the pricing scheme for the Type-II Zones (Low Demand Zones) does not achieve the objectives of usage optimization of on-street parking spaces. An optimized price scheme for the Type-II Zones is proposed to achieve the usage optimization of on-street parking spaces for short-term parking.

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Chandrashekaran, Rajesh. "Focal and contextual components of price history as determinants of expected price." Journal of Product & Brand Management 20, no. 5 (August 23, 2011): 408–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/10610421111157937.

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31

Michelfelder, Richard A., and Eugene A. Pilotte. "Information in Electricity Forward Prices." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 55, no. 8 (October 29, 2019): 2641–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022109019000930.

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We examine forward prices in a market where nonstorable inventory exacerbates the influence of seasonal and hourly variation in supply and demand, expected and unexpected, on the level and volatility of spot prices. We find strong evidence, unusual for a commodity, that the difference between contemporaneous forward and spot prices has power to forecast both the spot price change and the risk premium realized at delivery. Our evidence of a time-varying risk premium is consistent with expected hourly and seasonal variation in the needs of producers and retailers of electricity to hedge against extreme spot price decreases and increases, respectively.

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Barnett II, William, Michael Saliba, and Walter Block. "Predatory pricing." Corporate Ownership and Control 4, no. 4 (2007): 397–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv4i4c3p4.

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Predatory pricing is logically impossible, because it necessarily involves pricing below cost. However, cost, properly understood as opportunity cost is subjective and is incommensurable with money prices; more important, to price below cost implies rationally choosing an alternative (selling at price) that is suboptimal, since cost is the most highly valued alternative not chosen. When critics declare that predatory pricing is to price below cost, they mean to set a price below some measure of money expenses. But this entails all kinds of problems; which concept of expense – marginal is most obvious; but also the issue of the present value of alternatives, which means discounting expected revenues and expected expenses.

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33

Wee-Beng, Gan, and Soone Le Ying. "Stock price and expected dividends: evidence from Singapore." Applied Economics Letters 3, no. 2 (February 1996): 81–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/135048596356744.

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Lange, Christine, Sylvie Issanchou, and Pierre Combris. "Expected versus experienced quality: trade-off with price." Food Quality and Preference 11, no. 4 (July 2000): 289–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0950-3293(99)00074-9.

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35

Kandel, Shmuel, Aharon R. Ofer, and Oded Sarig. "Expected inflation, unexpected inflation, and relative price dispersion." Economics Letters 37, no. 4 (December 1991): 383–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(91)90075-v.

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36

Alghalith, Moawia, Xu Guo, Cuizhen Niu, and Wing-Keung Wong. "Input Demand Under Joint Energy and Output Prices Uncertainties." Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research 34, no. 04 (August 2017): 1750018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021759591750018x.

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In this paper, we analyze the impacts of joint energy and output prices uncertainties on the input demands in a mean–variance framework. We find that an increase in expected output price will surely cause the risk-averse firm to increase the input demand, while an increase in expected energy price will surely cause the risk-averse firm to decrease the demand for energy, but increase the demand for the non-risky inputs. Furthermore, we investigate the two cases with only uncertain energy price and only uncertain output price. In the case with only uncertain energy price, we find that the uncertain energy price has no impact on the demands for the non-risky inputs. We also show that the concepts of elasticity and decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) play an important role in the comparative statics analysis.

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37

Cortazar, Gonzalo, Cristobal Millard, Hector Ortega, and Eduardo S. Schwartz. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices, and Pricing Models." Management Science 65, no. 9 (September 2019): 4141–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3035.

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Even though commodity-pricing models have been successful in fitting the term structure of futures prices and its dynamics, they do not generate accurate true distributions of spot prices. This paper develops a new approach to calibrate these models using not only observations of oil futures prices, but also analysts’ forecasts of oil spot prices. We conclude that to obtain reasonable expected spot curves, analysts’ forecasts should be used, either alone or jointly with futures data. The use of both futures and forecasts, instead of using only forecasts, generates expected spot curves that do not differ considerably in the short/medium term, but long term estimations are significantly different. The inclusion of analysts’ forecasts in addition to futures, instead of only futures prices, does not alter significantly the short/medium part of the futures curve but does have a significant effect on long-term futures estimations. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

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Koschmann, Anthony, and Mathew S. Isaac. "Retailer Categorization: How Store-Format Price Image Influences Expected Prices and Consumer Choices." Journal of Retailing 94, no. 4 (December 2018): 364–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jretai.2018.08.001.

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39

Neill Fortune, J. "The inflation rate of the price of gold, expected prices and interest rates." Journal of Macroeconomics 9, no. 1 (December 1987): 71–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0164-0704(87)80007-1.

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40

Lee, Eun Jung, Yu Kyung Lee, and Joon Chae. "Investor Attention and Expected Return." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 27, no. 1 (February 28, 2019): 49–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-01-2019-b0002.

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In this paper, we analyze the effect of investor attention level on expected return in the Korean stock market by investor type. We find that the risk-adjusted excess returns in the next period are significantly higher when the institutional and foreign investor’s attention is high. In other words, investment strategies that buy stocks in higher attention groups and sell those in lower attention groups provide significant excess returns. This result is in contrast to the argument that the market operates more competitively and moves more efficiently as the number of investors increases due to the increased investor attention. Next, we examine how the degree of attention of institutional, individual, and foreign investors affects each other. The analysis reveals that the attention of individual investors affects the attention of institutional investors in the next period, and vice versa. In addition, as a result of group analysis according to the size of company and stock price, we find that the investor's attention affects the market differently depending on the type of investors and stock price level.

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Jacobson, Robert, and Carl Obermiller. "The Formation of Expected Future Price: A Reference Price for Forward- Looking Consumers." Journal of Consumer Research 16, no. 4 (March 1990): 420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/209227.

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Sood, Neeraj, Zachary Wagner, Peter Huckfeldt, and Amelia M. Haviland. "Price Shopping in Consumer-Directed Health Plans." Forum for Health Economics and Policy 16, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 35–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/fhep-2012-0028.

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Abstract We use health insurance claims data from 63 large employers to estimate the extent of price shopping for nine common outpatient services in consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) compared to traditional health plans. The main measures of price shopping include (1) the total price paid on the claim, (2) the share of claims from low- and high-cost providers, and (3) the savings from price shopping relative to choosing prices randomly. All analyses control for individual and zip code level demographics and plan characteristics. We also estimate differences in price shopping within CDHPs depending on expected health care costs and whether the service was bought before or after reaching the deductible. For eight out of nine services analyzed, prices paid by CDHP and traditional plan enrollees did not differ significantly; CDHP enrollees paid 2.3% less for office visits. Similarly, office visits was the only service where CDHP enrollment resulted in a significantly larger share of claims from low-cost providers and greater savings from price shopping relative to traditional plans. There was also no evidence that, within CDHP plans, consumers with lower expected medical expenses exhibited more price shopping or that consumers exhibited more price shopping before reaching the deductible.

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Vanhuele, Marc, and Xavier Drèze. "Measuring the Price Knowledge Shoppers Bring to the Store." Journal of Marketing 66, no. 4 (October 2002): 72–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.66.4.72.18516.

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Reference price research suggests that consumers memorize and recall price information when selecting brands for frequently purchased products. Previous price-knowledge surveys, however, indicate that memory for prices is lower than expected. In this study, the authors show that these price-knowledge surveys provide imperfect estimates of price knowledge, because they focus only on recall and short-term memory. The authors propose, instead, to use a combination of price recall, price recognition, and deal recognition to measure the degree to which consumers use auditory verbal, visual Arabic, or analogue magnitude representations to memorize prices. The authors show how the combination of these three measures provides a much richer understanding of consumers' knowledge of prices. The results suggest that the price knowledge involved in reference prices may often not be accessible to recall but shows up in price recognition and deal recognition. In addition, the authors identify consumer and product characteristics that explain the variations in price knowledge. They find, for example, that frequent promotions increase consumers' ability to remember regular prices and that store switchers do not possess better price knowledge than other shoppers.

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No, Han-Jang, Dai-Won Kim, and Jung-Suk Yu. "International Real Estate Review." International Real Estate Review 20, no. 1 (March 31, 2017): 75–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.53383/100236.

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This study examines whether the reserve prices in court auctions of residential real estate in Seoul, Korea result in reference price effects by influencing the amount of the successful bid. We also explore whether the sensitivity of these reference price effects differ with housing size and assess whether the expected rate of the selling price can be predicted based on the different reserve price levels. The panel data estimates presented herein show that reserve prices positively influence the final property transfer prices; in other words, the reserve prices yield strong reference price effects. The results of the ordinary least square regressions show that the sensitivity of the reference price effects differs with housing size, albeit in an inconsistent manner. Finally, the response surface methodology analysis indicates * Corresponding author 76 No, Kim and Yu that different reserve prices lead to different reference price effects with locality across the Seoul metropolitan area. The study thus provides courts and bidders with the means to predict the potential rate of the selling price, which will be useful for decision making in auctions.

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Routledge, R. R., and R. A. Edwards. "Ambiguity and price competition." Theory and Decision 88, no. 2 (November 4, 2019): 231–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11238-019-09725-4.

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Abstract There are few models of price competition in a homogeneous-good market which permit general asymmetries of information amongst the sellers. This work studies a price game with discontinuous payoffs in which both costs and market demand are ex ante uncertain. The sellers evaluate uncertain profits with maximin expected utilities exhibiting ambiguity aversion. The buyers in the market are permitted to split between sellers tieing at the minimum price in arbitrary ways which may be deterministic or random. The role of the primitives in determining equilibrium prices in the market is analyzed in detail.

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Decimavilla, Esther, Carlos San Juan, and Stefan Sperlich. "Precio de la tierra con presión urbana: Un modelo para España." Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales 8, no. 1 (October 14, 2011): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.7201/earn.2008.01.01.

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This paper examines agricultural land prices and the variables that affect them as a way of identifying and explaining the recent price cycle in Spain. The key variables in our panel data model are location and expected farm income as fundamental factors and housing prices and increases in irrigated areas as nonfundamental dependant variables. The price cycle is also related to regional specialization and the impact of integration in the CAP. The novelty of the paper consists in the use of panel data models to identify fundamental factors related to agricultural productivity (expected agricultural income) and location and nonfundamental or speculative factors (housing prices, irrigated areas and demographic changes) using regional data associated with land type.

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Ahmad Onour, Ibrahim, and Mai M. Abdo. "Sensitivity of Crude Oil Price Change to Major Global Factors and to Russian–Ukraine War Crisi." Journal of Sustainable Business and Economics 5, no. 2 (July 22, 2022): 69–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.30564/jsbe.v5i2.10.

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To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode; using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents; and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents; a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian–Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.

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Onour, Ibrahim Ahmad. "Sensitivity of crude oil price change to major global factors and to Russian-Ukraine war crisis." Journal of Sustainable Business and Economics 5, no. 2 (June 6, 2022): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.30564/jsbe.v5i2.4641.

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To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, we employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares (FLS), and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), in addition to OLS regression mode; using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. Our findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents; and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents; a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian–Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pb[1][2]. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.

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Ott, Steven H., Timothy J. Riddiough, Ha-Chin Yi, and Jiro Yoshida. "International Real Estate Review." International Real Estate Review 11, no. 1 (June 30, 2008): 1–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.53383/100088.

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Using over 25 years of quarterly U.S. and Japanese time series data, this paper examines the determinants of demand for an important class of real assets: commercial real estate. We specify a structural model of market equilibrium that considers direct effects of real investment on built asset price. Our empirical findings are consistent across countries and produce several new results. First, we find that real investment exerts a significant positive direct effect on asset price, which in turn feeds back to impact investment decisions. Second, idiosyncratic risk is found to be strongly positively related to asset price, and to complement supply effects. Third, systematic risk is priced as expected, where the strength of the relation between asset price and systematic risk is found to be higher than in previous studies of capital asset prices. Fourth, lagged values of price determinants (of up to two years) are consistently important in real asset demand estimation. Alternative explanations for our findings are analyzed and discussed. Implications for asset pricing model specification and interpretation are also considered.

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Álvarez, Francisco, José-Manuel Rey, and Raúl G. Sanchis. "Pricing Strategy versus Heterogeneous Shopping Behavior under Market Price Dispersion." Abstract and Applied Analysis 2016 (2016): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/3254240.

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We consider the ubiquitous problem of a seller competing in a market of a product with dispersed prices and having limited information about both his competitors’ prices and the shopping behavior of his potential customers. Given the distribution of market prices, the distribution of consumers’ shopping behavior, and the seller’s cost as inputs, we find the computational solution for the pricing strategy that maximizes his expected profits. We analyze the seller’s solution with respect to different exogenous perturbations of parametric and functional inputs. For that purpose, we produce synthetic price data using the family of Generalized Error Distributions that includes normal and quasiuniform distributions as particular cases, and we also generate consumers’ shopping data from different behavioral assumptions. Our analysis shows that, beyond price mean and dispersion, the shape of the price distribution plays a significant role in the seller’s pricing solution. We focus on the seller’s response to an increasing diversity in consumers’ shopping behavior. We show that increasing heterogeneity in the shopping distribution typically lowers seller’s prices and expected profits.

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