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Academic literature on the topic 'Expectations-driven business cycles'

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Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 29 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Expectations-driven business cycles"

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Grandmont, Jean-Michel. "Expectations driven business cycles." European Economic Review 35, no. 2-3 (April 1991): 293–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(91)90129-7.

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Sirbu, Anca-Ioana. "NEWS ABOUT TAXES AND EXPECTATIONS-DRIVEN BUSINESS CYCLES." Macroeconomic Dynamics 23, no. 4 (November 27, 2017): 1340–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000256.

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This paper analyzes the possibility of expectations-driven business cycles to emerge in a one-sector real business cycle model if the unique driving force is news about future income tax rates. We find that good news about labor income tax rates cannot generate expectations-driven business cycles, whereas good news about capital income tax rates can. We show that a one-sector real business cycle model enriched with (i) variable capital utilization and (ii) investment adjustment costs and driven solely by news shocks about capital income tax rates is able to generate qualitatively and quantitatively realistic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast to numerous studies in the news-driven business cycle literature, our model maintains separable preferences.
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Suzuki, Motoshi. "Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind." American Political Science Review 86, no. 4 (December 1992): 989–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1964350.

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Numerous studies have sought to discover political business cycles in macroeconomic variables. Although voters' subjective economic expectations have been shown to influence their electoral decisions, no existing research has attempted to uncover cyclical patterns in citizens' economic expectations. Using survey data, I seek to determine whether expectations shift to benefit the incumbent president's electoral interest. The analyses show that the percentage of the public predicting an economic upturn increases before a presidential election. One explanation for the findings is that voters might extrapolate cyclical expectations from macroeconomic conditions that contain election-driven cycles. Yet the analyses show that expectational cycles still appear when the macroeconomic conditions are held constant. I conclude by drawing an explanation without recourse to macroeconomic cycles.
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Eusepi*, Stefano. "On expectations-driven business cycles in economies with production externalities." International Journal of Economic Theory 5, no. 1 (March 2009): 9–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1742-7363.2008.00101.x.

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Beaudry, Paul, and Franck Portier. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges." Journal of Economic Literature 52, no. 4 (December 1, 2014): 993–1074. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.4.993.

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There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)
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Eusepi, Stefano, and Bruce Preston. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations." American Economic Review 101, no. 6 (October 1, 2011): 2844–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.6.2844.

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This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. Learning breaks the tight link between fundamentals and equilibrium prices, inducing periods of erroneous optimism or pessimism about future returns to capital and wages which subsequent data partially validate. In a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and propagates technology shocks. Moreover, it produces agents' forecast errors consistent with business cycle properties of forecast errors for a wide range of variables from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. JEL: C53, D83, D84, E32, E37
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Guo, Jang-Ting, Anca-Ioana Sirbu, and Richard M. H. Suen. "On expectations-driven business cycles in economies with production externalities: A comment." International Journal of Economic Theory 8, no. 3 (August 27, 2012): 313–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1742-7363.2012.00193.x.

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Nourry, Carine, and Alain Venditti. "ENDOGENOUS BUSINESS CYCLES IN OVERLAPPING-GENERATIONS ECONOMIES WITH MULTIPLE CONSUMPTION GOODS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 16, S1 (December 30, 2011): 86–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000484.

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We consider an overlapping-generations economy with two consumption goods. There are two sectors that produce a pure consumption good and a mixed good that can be either consumed or used as capital. We prove that the existence of Pareto-optimal expectations-driven fluctuations is compatible with standard sectoral technologies if the share of the pure consumption good is low enough. Following Reichlin's [Journal of Economic Theory 40 (1986), 89–102] influential conclusion, this result suggests that some fiscal policy rules can prevent business-cycle fluctuations in the economy by driving it to the optimal steady state as soon as they are announced.
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Lorenzoni, Guido. "A Theory of Demand Shocks." American Economic Review 99, no. 5 (December 1, 2009): 2050–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.5.2050.

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This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The public signal gives rise to “noise shocks,” which have the features of aggregate demand shocks: they increase output, employment, and inflation in the short run and have no effects in the long run. Numerical examples suggest that the model can generate sizable amounts of noise-driven volatility. (JEL D83, D84, E21, E23, E32)
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Harrison, Sharon G., and Mark Weder. "SUNSPOTS AND CREDIT FRICTIONS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 17, no. 5 (September 28, 2012): 1055–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000836.

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We examine a general equilibrium model with collateral constraints and increasing returns to scale in production. The utility function is nonseparable, with no income effect on the consumer's choice of leisure. Unlike this model without a collateral constraint, we find that indeterminacy of equilibria is possible. Hence, business cycles can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. This is the case for more realistic parameterizations than in previous, similar models without these features.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Expectations-driven business cycles"

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Coimbra, Rui. "Expectations-driven business cycles under the efficiency wages hypothesis." Thesis, University of York, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.298331.

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Pavlov, Oscar. "Essays on expectations-driven business cycles." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/82070.

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This thesis addresses the role of imperfect competition in business cycles driven by expectations and beliefs about the future state of the economy. It consists of three self-contained papers. The first paper examines the roles of composition of aggregate demand and taste for variety in a real business cycle model with endogenous entries and exits of monopolistically competitive firms. It finds that taste for variety can alone make the economy susceptible to endogenous (sunspot driven) business cycles. Importantly, in light of recent research suggesting that aggregate markups in the U.S. are procyclical, sunspot equilibria emerge with procyclical markups that are within empirically plausible ranges. The second paper considers aggregate markup variations in business cycles driven by news about future total factor productivity. It shows that the addition of endogenous countercyclical markups and investment adjustment costs allows the standard one-sector real business cycle model to generate empirically supported expectations driven fluctuations. The simulated model reproduces the regular features of U.S. aggregate fluctuations. The third paper investigates the role of product variety effects and variable markups in expectations-driven business cycles. It demonstrates that taste for variety and investment adjustment costs allow the otherwise canonical real business cycle model to display quantitatively realistic fluctuations in response to news about future total factor productivity. Moreover, the interaction between price-cost decisions and firm entry and exit allows such business cycles to occur for empirically plausible levels of procyclical markups and variety effects.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2013
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Book chapters on the topic "Expectations-driven business cycles"

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Grandmont, Jean-Michel. "Expectations Driven Nonlinear Business Cycles." In Rheinisch-Westfälische Akademie der Wissenschaften, 7–32. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-85593-0_1.

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Grandmont, Jean-Michel. "Expectations Driven Nonlinear Business Cycles." In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 67–78. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48719-4_6.

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Conference papers on the topic "Expectations-driven business cycles"

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Lievens, Jeroen. "THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON COMMUNICATION PRACTICES IN THE ENGINEERING WORKPLACE: A STUDENT-DRIVEN SURVEY AND AN EXPLORATION OF POTENTIAL CURRICULAR RAMIFICATIONS." In International Conference on Education and New Developments. inScience Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36315/2022v1end037.

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"In 2012, the Faculty of Industrial Engineering Technology of Leuven University, Campus Diepenbeek, initiated a student-driven action research project to optimize the communications curriculum and tether it to trends and evolutions in the engineering workplace. The methodological pivot of the action research cycle is a questionnaire that students send out to professional engineers on a yearly basis. To date, the questionnaire has been completed by over 2000 engineers. The survey polls the importance and salient features of contemporaneous communication practices for engineers, on the basis of which the curriculum is continuously refined and optimized to match workplace expectations. The existence of this historical dataset allowed for an accurate measurement of the impact of COVID-19 on communication practices in the field of engineering. The perhaps unsurprising, but nevertheless striking rise in online meeting and collaboration practices in the engineering workplace prompts urgent curricular questions with potentially far-reaching ramifications, as the communications curriculum rests, as yet, on a bedrock of traditional, face-to-face interaction. With urgent 21th century concerns surrounding mobility and climate change, screen-to-screen interactions might well evolve into the “new normal” for business communication. This presentation discusses the findings of the questionnaire on the impact of COVID-19 on engineering communication practices and follows through with a preliminary exploration of the ramifications of these findings on the future communications curriculum for engineers."
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