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1
Heinemann, Maik. "CONVERGENCE OF ADAPTIVE LEARNING AND EXPECTATIONAL STABILITY: THE CASE OF MULTIPLE RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS EQUILIBRIA." Macroeconomic Dynamics 4, no. 3 (September 2000): 263–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100500016011.
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This paper analyzes the relationship between the expectational stability of rational expectations solutions and the possible convergence of adaptive learning processes. Both concepts are used as selection criteria in the case of multiple rational expectations solutions. Results obtained using recursive least squares lead to the conjecture that there exists a general one-to-one correspondence between these two selection criteria. On the basis of a simple linear model and a stochastic gradient algorithm as an alternative learning procedure, it is demonstrated that such a conjecture would be incorrect: There are cases in which stochastic gradient learning converges to rational expectations solutions that are not expectationally stable.
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Koustas, Zisimos. "Some model-based tests of expectational rationality." Atlantic Economic Journal 17, no. 2 (June 1989): 53–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02304821.
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Sunder, Shyam. "Management Control, Expectations, Common Knowledge, and Culture." Journal of Management Accounting Research 14, no. 1 (January 1, 2002): 173–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/jmar.2002.14.1.173.
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Control in organizations can be defined as expectational equilibrium, or correspondence between how the members of an organization behave and how others expect them to behave. Using a contract model of organizations as the base, we use human expectations, common knowledge, and culture to propose a theory of control. Changes in factor and product market conditions tend to disrupt control in organizations. Strategic management consists of continual monitoring and anticipation of market conditions, and redesign, negotiation, and implementation of contracts to restore and maintain the expectational equilibrium.
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Van Zandt, Timothy, and Martin Lettau. "ROBUSTNESS OF ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS AS AN EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION DEVICE." Macroeconomic Dynamics 7, no. 1 (January 7, 2003): 89–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100502010313.
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Dynamic models in which agents' behavior depends on expectations of future prices or other endogenous variables can have steady states that are stationary equilibria for a wide variety of expectations rules, including rational expectations. When there are multiple steady states, stability is a criterion for selecting among them as predictions of long-run outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to study how sensitive stability is to certain details of the expectations rules, in a simple OLG model with constant government debt that is financed through seigniorage. We compare simple recursive learning rules, learning rules with vanishing gain, and OLS learning, and also relate these to expectational stability. One finding is that two adaptive expectation rules that differ only in whether they use current information can have opposite stability properties.
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Cho, In-Koo, and Kenneth Kasa. "Gresham's Law of Model Averaging." American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 1, 2017): 3589–616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160665.
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A decision maker doubts the stationarity of his environment. In response, he uses two models, one with time-varying parameters, and another with constant parameters. Forecasts are then based on a Bayesian model averaging strategy, which mixes forecasts from the two models. In reality, structural parameters are constant, but the (unknown) true model features expectational feedback, which the reduced-form models neglect. This feedback permits fears of parameter instability to become self-confirming. Within the context of a standard asset-pricing model, we use the tools of large deviations theory to show that even though the constant parameter model would converge to the rational expectations equilibrium if considered in isolation, the mere presence of an unstable alternative drives it out of consideration. (JEL C63, D83, D84)
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Xu, Xiaoli, and Yibei Ling. "A study on the expectational model for tumor growth." International Journal of Bio-Medical Computing 22, no. 2 (March 1988): 135–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0020-7101(88)90049-9.
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Kurozumi, Takushi, and Willem Van Zandweghe. "TREND INFLATION AND EQUILIBRIUM STABILITY: FIRM-SPECIFIC VERSUS HOMOGENEOUS LABOR." Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, no. 4 (August 8, 2016): 947–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000784.
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In sticky price models based on micro evidence that each period a fraction of prices are kept unchanged, recent studies reach the qualitatively equivalent conclusion that higher trend inflation is a more serious source of indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibrium, regardless of whether labor is firm-specific or homogeneous. This paper shows that the model with firm-specific labor is more susceptible to indeterminacy induced by high trend inflation than the model with homogeneous labor, because these two different specifications of labor lead to distinct representations of inflation dynamics. In addition, the model with firm-specific labor is more susceptible to expectational instability of the equilibrium caused by high trend inflation.
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Evans, George W., and Seppo Honkapohja. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28, no. 1 (October 2003): 171–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1889(02)00137-9.
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Pfajfar, Damjan, and Emiliano Santoro. "CREDIT MARKET DISTORTIONS, ASSET PRICES AND MONETARY POLICY." Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no. 3 (September 28, 2012): 631–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000557.
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We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of pass-through of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong cost-side effects limit the size of the policy rate response to inflation that is consistent with determinacy, so that inflation-targeting policies may not be capable of ensuring REE uniqueness. In this case it is advisable to combine policy rate responses to inflation with an appropriate reaction to the output gap and/or firm profitability. The negative reaction of real activity and asset prices to inflationary shocks adds a negative force to inflation responses that counteracts the borrowing cost effect and prevents expectations of higher inflation from becoming self-fulfilling.
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Arifovic, Jasmina, and James Bullard. "INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE: NEW APPROACHES TO LEARNING IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 5, no. 02 (April 2001): 143–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100501019010.
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The research questions addressed by the literature on learning in macroeconomics can be classified into four categories: First, there are issues related to the convergence and stability under learning in models with unique rational expectations equilibria. Authors here are concerned mainly with the learnability of a rational expectations equilibrium, as a measure of that equilibrium's plausibility as an observed outcome in an actual economy. Second, there are issues related to convergence and stability under learning in models with multiple rational expectations equilibria. In this case, learnability serves as an equilibrium selection device, helping economists decide which equilibria are the more likely to be actually observed among the many that exist under rational expectations. A third set of issues involves the examination of transitional dynamics that accompanies the equilibrium selection process. Following some type of unexpected strcutural change or change in policy regime, for instance, economies necessarily must follow temporary transitional paths to a rational expectations equilibrium associated with the new reality. Learning is sometimes used to help model such transitional dynamics. Finally, there are issues related to the examination of learning dynamics that are intrinsically different, even asymptotically, from the dynamics of the rational expectations versions of the models. In these cases, the learning dynamics do not converge to the rational expectations fixed points, and (unexploitable) expectational errors persist indefinitely. Some authors have tried to make use of this possibility in order to build explanations of otherwise puzzling macroeconomic phenomena based on constantly changing expectations.
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Kurozumi, Takushi. "Determinacy and expectational stability of equilibrium in a monetary sticky-price model with Taylor rule." Journal of Monetary Economics 53, no. 4 (May 2006): 827–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.03.011.
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Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment *." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 1 (November 25, 2014): 55–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju035.
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Abstract We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model, firms overextrapolate exogenous demand shocks and partially neglect the endogenous investment response of their competitors. As a result, firms overpay for ships and overinvest in booms and are disappointed by the subsequent low returns. Formal estimation of the model suggests that modest expectational errors can result in dramatic excess volatility in prices and investment.
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Ilut, Cosmin. "Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, no. 3 (July 1, 2012): 33–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.3.33.
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High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low interest rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered interest parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable expectational errors, negative skewness, and time-series momentum for currency speculation payoffs. (JEL D81, F31, G15)
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Kudoh, Noritaka. "POLICY INTERACTION AND LEARNING EQUILIBRIA." Macroeconomic Dynamics 17, no. 4 (November 11, 2011): 920–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000526.
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This note studies fiscal–monetary policy interactions in an endogenous growth model with multiple assets. The “growth-rate Laffer curve” clarifies an important tension between economic growth and government revenue and reveals that higher economic growth does not always finance a larger budget deficit. There are two Pareto-ranked balanced-growth equilibria, which can both be E-stable. Although fiscal policy can eliminate the expectational indeterminacy, it rules out the equilibrium with a higher growth rate and higher welfare. Near the lower bound of the nominal interest rate, an arbitrarily small budget deficit will select the low-growth equilibrium to be the unique E-stable equilibrium.
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Catão, Luis, and Ramana Ramaswamy. "Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: Identifying the Shocks." National Institute Economic Review 157 (July 1996): 97–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795019615700108.
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This article uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the causes of the 1990-92 recession in the UK. The VAR approach is shown to be particularly pertinent for quantifying the relative magnitude of the different demand shocks, and in decomposing them into monetary and expectational factors. The main finding is that the recent recession was precipitated primarily by shocks to consumption, and that the prior monetary tightening and the subsequent collapse in the housing market explain just part of this contraction. Non-monetary shocks also appear to have played an important role in bringing about the recession. The VAR model also offers interesting insights on the nature of the recovery that is currently under way.
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Kachalov, Roman M., and Yuliya A. Sleptsova. "Conceptual Model of Sustainable Development Management Process." Journal of Economic Regulation 12, no. 2 (June 30, 2021): 068–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.17835/2078-5429.2021.12.2.068-084.
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The purpose of this paper is to develop a concept for managing the level of risk of disrupting the sustainable development of the enterprise. The research methodology is based on the system economic theory and the operational theory of risk management. A methodology is proposed for the study of the development and implementation of management decisions in the managerial subsystem, taking into account the identified risks of sustainable development of the enterprise at the intentional, expectational, cognitive and functional stages. Within the framework of these stages, the processes of goal setting, information collection, assessment of the existing environment and forecasting of changes in the enterprise, as well as the processes of implementing decisions are carried out. To shed light on the processes of identifying risk factors and developing appropriate anti-risk managerial impacts depend on the localization in the control object. When decomposing a control object, four types of localization are distinguished: an object subsystem, a process subsystem, a project subsystem, and an environmental subsystem. The implementation of managerial decisions, from the point of view of the object subsystem, can be limited by the high cost of the main production equipment and long life cycles of the finished product. When implementing the developed managerial solutions, there may be a redistribution of profit centers or a change in the way it is generated, which will lead to a change in the characteristics of the enterprise's process subsystem. In the project subsystem, an enterprise can achieve maximum effect by focusing its efforts on the introduction of innovative technologies. The speed of changes in the external environment of the enterprise becomes very high, so the role of forecasting the impact of these changes on the environmental subsystem of the enterprise increases, and applying this knowledge to develop managerial impact, on the one hand, and to adapt the enterprise to these changes, on the other. It is shown that by regulating and eliminating the imbalance in the preparation of managerial impacts, it is possible to reduce the level of risk in the implementation of such decisions.
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Kumar, Rajesh, and Verner Worm. "Process Ambiguities in Sino-Danish Busi ness Negotiations." Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies 18 (August 30, 2005): 5–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.22439/cjas.v18i0.17.
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The article analyses the role played by process ambiguities in Sino-Danish
busi ness negotiations. Process ambiguities refer to perceived expectational
inconsistency concerning (i) appropriate forms of behaviour; (ii) attributional
judgements; and (iii) structuring of the negotiation process. These ambiguities
stem from dif fer enc es in negotiation scripts across Chinese and Danish cultures.
The essential ar gu ment being advanced here is that it is the effective and/or
the ineffective management of process ambiguities that shapes the evolution
of the negotiating dynamic be tween Danish and Chinese business people. An
inductive model of Sino-Dan ish business negotiations is developed that is
based on 24 interviews conducted with Danish expatriate managers in China
and 4 interviews with Chinese working in Danish companies. Implications for
research and practice are discussed.
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Bohn, Henning, and Armando R. Lopez-Velasco. "IMMIGRATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS: CAN HIGH IMMIGRANT FERTILITY EXPLAIN VOTER SUPPORT FOR IMMIGRATION?" Macroeconomic Dynamics 23, no. 5 (July 20, 2017): 1815–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000463.
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First generation immigrants to the United States have higher fertility rates than natives. This paper analyzes to what extent this factor provides political support for immigration, using an overlapping generation model with production and capital accumulation. In this setting, immigration represents a dynamic trade-off for native workers as more immigrants decrease current wages but increase the future return on their savings. We find that immigrant fertility has surprisingly strong effects on voter incentives, especially when there is persistence in the political process. If fertility rates are sufficiently high, native workers support immigration. Persistence, either due to inertia induced by frictions in the legal system or through expectational linkages, significantly magnifies the effects. Entry of immigrants with high fertility has redistributive impacts across generations similar to pay-as-you-go social security: initial generations are net winners, whereas later generations are net losers.
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Spiegler, Ran. "Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systematically Fooled?" Journal of the European Economic Association 18, no. 2 (January 12, 2019): 583–617. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy057.
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Abstract An agent forms estimates (or forecasts) of individual variables conditional on some observed signal. His estimates are based on fitting a subjective causal model—formalized as a directed acyclic graph, following the “Bayesian networks” literature—to objective long-run data. I show that the agent’s average estimates coincide with the variables’ true expected value (for any underlying objective distribution) if and only if the agent’s graph is perfect—that is, it directly links every pair of variables that it perceives as causes of some third variable. This result identifies neglect of direct correlation between perceived causes as the kind of causal misperception that can generate systematic prediction errors. I demonstrate the relevance of this result for economic applications: speculative trade, manipulation of a firm’s reputation, and a stylized “monetary policy” example in which the inflation-output relation obeys an expectational Phillips Curve.
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Sargent, Thomas, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation." American Economic Review 96, no. 4 (August 1, 2006): 1193–224. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.4.1193.
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We use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the parameters of a “true” data-generating mechanism and those of a sequence of approximating models that a monetary authority uses to guide its decisions. Gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authority's approximating nonexpectational Phillips curve models unleash inflation that a monetary authority that knows the true model would avoid. A sequence of dynamic programming problems implies that the monetary authority's inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. Our estimates attribute the rise and fall of post-WWII inflation in the United States to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority's beliefs and economic shocks. Shocks in the 1970s made the monetary authority perceive a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment which ignited big inflation. The monetary authority's beliefs about the Phillips curve changed in ways that account for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker's conquest of U.S. inflation.
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Usher, Marius, and Ernst Niebur. "Modeling the Temporal Dynamics of IT Neurons in Visual Search: A Mechanism for Top-Down Selective Attention." Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 8, no. 4 (October 1996): 311–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/jocn.1996.8.4.311.
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We propose a neural model for object-oriented attention in which various visual stimuli (shapes, colors, letters, etc.) are represented by competing, mutually inhibitory, cell assemblies. The model's response to a sequence of cue and target stimuli mimics the neural responses in infero temporal (IT) visual cortex of monkeys performing a visual search task: enhanced response during the display of the stimulus, which decays but remains above a spontaneous rate after the cue disappears. When, subsequently, a display consisting of the target and several distractors is presented, the activity of all stimulus-driven cells is initially enhanced. After a short period of time, however, the activity of the cell assembly representing the cue stimulus is enhanced while the activity of the distractors decays because of mutual competition and a small top-down “expectational” input. The model fits the measured delayed activity in IT-cortex, recently reported by Chelazzi, Miller, Duncan, and Desimone (1993a), and we suggest that such a process, which is largely independent of the number of distractors, may be used by the visual system for selecting an expected target (appearing at an uncertain location) among distractors.
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Soon Ae, Park, and Hwang Du Kyun. "An Analysis of Policy Satisfaction Using the Expectancy Disconfirmation Model." Korean Journal of Policy Studies 25, no. 3 (December 31, 2010): 47–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.52372/kjps25303.
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This study analyzed the impact of people`s expectations on policy satisfaction in South Korea, using an expectancy disconfirmation model wherein service satisfaction is decided by expectation and performance. Though recent studies have applied the model to evaluations of specific public services, this study applied it to macro policies in South Korea. To measure expectation levels, proxy variables were used: people`s trust in participants who have influence on policy and in the policy-making process. The results were not compatible with the model: the model`s implication that higher expectations induce lower satisfaction did not fit macro policy cases, where high expectations had a significant positive influence on satisfaction. Moreover, the type of expectation that is the focus of marketing studies, predictive expectation, is not appropriate to use with public policy cases; the quantity of prior experiences as a basis of predictive expectation is not significant to policy satisfaction. Expectation is obviously an important factor in the public`s evaluation of policy outputs, but further studies are necessary to fully understand its role.
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Evans, George. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models." Quarterly Journal of Economics 100, no. 4 (November 1985): 1217. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1885681.
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Margulis, Elizabeth Hellmuth. "A Model of Melodic Expectation." Music Perception 22, no. 4 (2005): 663–714. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/mp.2005.22.4.663.
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A model of melodic expectation is proposed. The model assigns ratings to the expectedness of melodic events. The ratings depend on the hierarchic implementation of three primary factors�stability, proximity, and direction�and one secondary factor�mobility. The model explicitly links expectancy ratings to aspects of listeners� experiences of tension in melody. An approach to temporal expectations is discussed but not quantified. The model is situated within a framework for thinking about a type of schematic melodic expectations. This article assesses the position of these expectations within the broader cognitive processes invoked in listening to music. It suggests methods for investigating the expectations empirically. Additionally, it outlines connections between the theorized expectations and the dynamic, affective contours of musical experience.
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Evans, George W., and Roger Guesnerie. "INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE: COORDINATION IN DYNAMIC EXPECTATIONS MODELS: LEARNING AND SUNSPOTS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 7, no. 1 (January 7, 2003): 3–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100501010276.
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The title speaks for itself: This special issue focuses attention on dynamical models in which expectations matter and in which expectational coordination is not taken for granted. This is a subject that has generated a lot of research in the past 20 years; the sample of papers presented here is witness to the present activity and the ongoing progress of our understanding. Here, as in previous research, the rational expectations construct remains the anchor of the analysis of expectational coordination, but it is subject to the additional critical scrutiny for which the present state of our knowledge calls more and more.
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Lan, Feng, and Yu Chao Wang. "Study on Income Heterogeneous Expectations and Commercial Housing Price Fluctuations – Analysis Based on Regions of the East and the West in China." Advanced Materials Research 1079-1080 (December 2014): 1203–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1079-1080.1203.
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The purpose of this paper is to analysis the effects of residents income, income heterogeneous expectations, housing price changes expectations on housing price fluctuations. The paper firstly adopts adaptive expectation method to quantify income heterogeneous expectations, based on the 2003-2012 relevant data of 23 provinces and autonomous regions of the East and the West, constructs the spatital model, and compares with the rational expectation method. Income of residents, income heterogeneous expectations and housing price changes expectations are set as explanatory variables, commodity housing price as dependent variable. The conclusion is drawn that that the increasing of income, income heterogeneous expectations and housing price changes expectations promotes commodity housing price, and the significance of adaptive expectation method in the research of expectation and housing price fluctuations is indicated.
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Johnston, Olivia, Helen Wildy, and Jennifer Shand. "A decade of teacher expectations research 2008–2018: Historical foundations, new developments, and future pathways." Australian Journal of Education 63, no. 1 (February 8, 2019): 44–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0004944118824420.
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This literature review critically synthesizes 10 years of international teacher expectations research using a simplified “expectation effect process” model. New developments in teacher expectation research are outlined, including effects of teacher expectations on students, teachers’ development of expectations, teachers’ differential treatment of students, and students’ reactions to teacher expectations. A brief overview of pre-2008 research presents the foundations of the post-2008 research using the same “expectation effect process” model. A separate section about Australian research is also included. Results of the literature review show that while qualitative research on the topic has increased from 2008 to 2018, quantitative studies still prevail and qualitative studies on the topic—particularly those which consider students’ perspectives—are rare. Hence, this article argues that the development of a more holistic, in-depth understanding of how teacher expectations affect student outcomes is possible through contextually embedded qualitative research that includes exploration of students’ reactions to teacher expectations. In this way, further understandings about how and why expectation effects vary between students could be gained.
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Yıldız, Kadir, Ercan Polat, and Pınar Güzel. "A Study Investigating the Perceived Service Quality Levels of Sport Center Members: A Kano Model Perspective." Journal of Education and Training Studies 6, no. 4 (March 18, 2018): 177. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/jets.v6i4.3045.
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The purpose of this study is to investigate sport center members' perceived service quality levels with a view to Kano customer expectations and requirements model. To that end, a descriptive approach and a correlational research design featuring survey method is adopted. Research group consists of 680 (300 women, 380 men) sport center members who are chosed through multistage sampling (Cluster). “Sport Fitness Centers Perceived Service Quality Scale and Expectation Scale are used as data collection tools. Independent samples t-test, Pearson Correlation analysis and Multiple Linear Regression tests are used to analyzed the data. In the light of the findings, it is seen that all the subdimensions have medium or high level positive significant relationships with the expectation when the subdimensions of the expectation scale and the SFC-PSQS are compared.According to the results of the Independent Samples T-test, the expectation levels of the customers stating that the programme fee is expensive are significantly lower. In conclusion, as the customers’ perception of service quality in the sport center increases, their expectation levels also generally increase significantly. The customers expect that the quality of service they receive to be high and to meet their expectations exceedingly. However, it is also predicted that physical and psychosocial factors affecting the expectation can also affect the perception of service quality at a significant level. Since the service quality and meeting the expectations of the customers is an important indicator to maintain the businesses’ existence, studying with multiple factors attempting to understand the nature of service quality and the customer expectations should be conducted.
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XU, YINGYING, ZHIXIN LIU, and XING ZHANG. "HETEROGENEOUS OR HOMOGENEOUS INFLATION EXPECTATION FORMATION MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF CHINESE HOUSEHOLDS AND FINANCIAL PARTICIPANTS." Singapore Economic Review 62, no. 04 (September 2017): 859–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590817400306.
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This paper attempts to identify whether the inflation expectation formation models adopted by Chinese agents are heterogeneous or homogeneous. A Gaussian mixture model is developed assuming that agents form inflation expectations by selecting a model from alternatives. Analysis results reveal that only adaptive expectation (AE) model is significant, indicating that both households and financial participants are fairly homogeneous in selecting inflation expectation formation models. Therefore, the mechanism of heterogeneous models is inoperative in explaining the heterogeneous inflation expectations in China, and the AE is the main driver of Chinese agents’ perceptions about cost.
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Oh, Joon-Hee, and Judy Ma. "Multi-stage expectation-confirmation framework for salespeople expectation management." Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing 33, no. 8 (October 1, 2018): 1165–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jbim-01-2018-0027.
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Purpose Despite its significance in salespeople management, salespeople expectation management has received little attention in the literature, especially in the industrial marketing literature. In response, the purpose of this study is to leverage the expectation confirmation theory to present a conceptual framework that provides an effective tool for salespeople expectation management. Design/methodology/approach This study first explores the application and strategic implications of expectation-confirmation theory in salespeople expectation management and theorizes that salespeople establish pre-expectations (expectations that are developed before joining the firm), experience multiple stages of the expectation-confirmation process throughout their sales career with a firm and – in each stage – establish either a longer-term commitment to or permanent disengagement from the firm. Findings A winning strategy for sales organizations is to recognize salespeople expectations and to meet or beat these expectations. Salespeople expectation management is particularly important in sales organizations that frequently find aligning sales force management strategies with organizational imperatives to be challenging. Research limitations/implications This study extends expectation-confirmation theory by presenting a conceptual framework that: identifies the existence of pre-expectations of salespeople and their outcomes; recognizes that the expectation-confirmation process occurs across multiple stages in the salespeople’s career cycle; recognizes that the level of expectations in previous stages of one’s career cycle influences the level of expectations in subsequent stages; and conceptualizes the non-linear relationship between expectations, tenure and turnover intentions. Originality/value The multiple expectation-confirmation framework can be used for effective salespeople expectation and turnover management and may also serve as a general model of organizational interventions.
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Gillett, Alexis, Ronald Meester, and Peter van der Wal. "Maximal avalanches in the Bak-Sneppen model." Journal of Applied Probability 43, no. 3 (September 2006): 840–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1239/jap/1158784950.
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We study the durations of the avalanches in the maximal avalanche decomposition of the Bak-Sneppen evolution model. We show that all the avalanches in this maximal decomposition have infinite expectation, but only ‘barely’, in the sense that if we made the appropriate threshold a tiny amount smaller (in a certain sense), then the avalanches would have finite expectation. The first of these results is somewhat surprising, since simulations suggest finite expectations.
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Gillett, Alexis, Ronald Meester, and Peter van der Wal. "Maximal avalanches in the Bak-Sneppen model." Journal of Applied Probability 43, no. 03 (September 2006): 840–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002190020000214x.
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We study the durations of the avalanches in the maximal avalanche decomposition of the Bak-Sneppen evolution model. We show that all the avalanches in this maximal decomposition have infinite expectation, but only ‘barely’, in the sense that if we made the appropriate threshold a tiny amount smaller (in a certain sense), then the avalanches would have finite expectation. The first of these results is somewhat surprising, since simulations suggest finite expectations.
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J, Kannan, Venkatrama Raju D, and Kamaraj S. "Air Travel Passengers’ Expectation – An Analysis of Structural Equation Model." Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems 11, no. 0009-SPECIAL ISSUE (September 25, 2019): 1402–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.5373/jardcs/v11/20192756.
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Pinquart, Martin, Julia C. Koß, and Helena Block. "How Do Students React When Their Performance Is Worse or Better Than Expected?" Zeitschrift für Entwicklungspsychologie und Pädagogische Psychologie 52, no. 1-2 (January 2020): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1026/0049-8637/a000222.
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Abstract. We analyzed grade level and sex differences for changes in expectations and coping with expectation violations, based on the ViolEx model. A sample of 114 third to sixth graders (male, n = 44, 38.6 %; female, n = 70, 61.4 %) reported their expected achievement in trials with no feedback, worse-than-expected achievement feedback, and better-than-expected feedback. Expectations improved across the no-feedback and better-than-expected feedback trials, and deteriorated across worse-than-expected trials. While expectation change did not vary by grade level or sex, reported coping with expectation violation did vary, and pupils of younger years reported higher attempts to fulfill their expectations (assimilative behavior). Immunization against worse-than-expected feedback was associated with higher expectations in the negative-feedback condition, but protective effects of immunization were lost with an increasing number of expectation violations. In addition, higher willingness to reduce one’s expectations (accommodation) inhibited the update of expectations after receiving better-than-expected feedback. Conclusions for future research are drawn.
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Valle, Mauricio A., Gonzalo A. Ruz, and Samuel Varas. "A survival model based on met expectations." Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administración 28, no. 2 (June 1, 2015): 177–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/arla-01-2014-0011.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a model of voluntary employee turnover based on the theory of met expectations and self-perceived efficacy of the employee, using data from a field survey conducted in a call center. Design/methodology/approach The paper formulates a model of employee turnover. First explaining the fulfillment of expectations from initial expectations of the employee (before starting work) and their experience after a period of time. Second, explaining the turnover of employees from the fulfillment of their expectations. Findings Some of the variability in the fulfillment of expectations can be explained by the difference between expectations and experiences in different job dimensions (e.g. income levels and job recognition). Results show that the level of fulfillment of expectations helps explain the process of employee turnover. Research limitations/implications This work provides evidence for the met expectation theory, where the gap between the individual’s expectations and subsequent experiences lead to abandonment behaviors in the organization. Practical implications The results suggest two paths of action to reduce the high turnover rates in the call center: the first, through realistic expectations setting of the employee, and the second, with a constant monitoring of the fulfillment of those expectations. Originality/value A statistical model of survival is used, which is appropriate for the study of the employee turnover processes, and its inherent temporal nature.
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Bordia, Sarbari, Lynn Wales, Jeffery Pittam, and Cindy Gallois. "Student expectations of TESOL programs." Australian Review of Applied Linguistics 29, no. 1 (January 1, 2006): 4.1–4.21. http://dx.doi.org/10.2104/aral0604.
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Most practitioners teaching English to speakers of other languages (TESOL) will agree that students come with some expectations about course content and teaching methodology and that these expectations play a vital role in student motivation and learning. However, the study of student expectations has been a surprising omission from Second Language Acquisition research. In the studies reported here, we develop a model of student expectations by adapting the Expectation Disconfirmation paradigm, widely used in consumer psychology. Student and teacher perspectives on student expectations were gathered by interviews. Responses shed light on the nature of expectations, factors causing expectations and effects of expectation fulfilment (or lack of it). The findings provide new avenues for research on affective factors as well as clarify some ambiguities in motivational research in second language acquisition. The model presented here can be used by teachers or institutions to conduct classroom-based research, thus optimising students’ learning and performance, and enhancing student morale.
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Bordia, Sarbari, Lynn Wales, Jeffery Pittam, and Cindy Gallois. "Student expectations of TESOL Programs." Australian Review of Applied Linguistics 29, no. 1 (2006): 4.1–4.21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/aral.29.1.02bor.
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Most practitioners teaching English to speakers of other languages (TESOL) will agree that students come with some expectations about course content and teaching methodology and that these expectations play a vital role in student motivation and learning. However, the study of student expectations has been a surprising omission from Second Language Acquisition research. In the studies reported here, we develop a model of student expectations by adapting the Expectation Disconfirmation paradigm, widely used in consumer psychology. Student and teacher perspectives on student expectations were gathered by interviews. Responses shed light on the nature of expectations, factors causing expectations and effects of expectation fulfilment (or lack of it). The findings provide new avenues for research on affective factors as well as clarify some ambiguities in motivational research in second language acquisition. The model presented here can be used by teachers or institutions to conduct classroom-based research, thus optimising students’ learning and performance, and enhancing student morale.
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Antoniades, Stephanie, Andrew Adamczyk, Hamid Nessek, Brad Meulenkamp, and R. Lalonde Karl-Andre. "The Use of a Personalized 3D Printed Model for Pre-Operative Education in Patients with Severe Periarticular Foot and Ankle Fractures." Foot & Ankle Orthopaedics 7, no. 4 (October 2022): 2473011421S0056. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2473011421s00560.
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Category: Trauma; Other Introduction/Purpose: Complex periarticular foot and ankle fractures have shown to have significant psychosocial effects on patients such as developing catastrophizing behaviours and poor pain coping strategies. These factors have shown to influence patient satisfaction. Interestingly, a positive association exists between patient satisfaction and preoperative expectations being met. For patient expectations to be met, clear comprehensive preoperative education is required. 3D printing has gained popularity due to its benefits in preoperative planning as well as patient education. Our aims were to 1) investigate the impact of a personalized 3D printed model for patient education on pre- and post-operative expectations and overall satisfaction and 2) investigate the impact of this teaching modality on PROMS and their correlation to patient expectation and satisfaction. Methods: Twenty-eight patients presenting complex periarticular foot and ankle fractures (pilon, talus and calcaneus) were randomized to either control or intervention (3D). All patients underwent a preoperative standardized education session with or without a personalized 3D printed model. Patient expectation and satisfaction were quantified pre- and postoperatively using the MODEMS questionnaires while the following PROMs (VAS and SF-12) were assessed at 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months post-operatively. Results: No significant differences were found between groups for MODEMS pre- (p=0.329) and postoperative expectation (p=0.654), and satisfaction (p=0.411). While not statistically significant, there was a trend towards expectations being better met in the intervention group when compared to the control group (31.2% vs 43.5% respectively). Also, there were no significant differences between groups for VAS and SF-12 at different time points, expect for SF-12 at 3 months for physical component only. A strong positive correlation (0.905, p=0.013) was found between MODEMS preoperative expectation and VAS scores at 12 months in the intervention group. Conclusion: Although there were no significant differences found between groups for pre- and postoperative patient expectation and overall satisfaction at 12 months, there is a trend towards expectations being better met in the intervention group. This could indicate that lower and more realistic expectations are set preoperatively when educating patients using a 3D model. Expectations preoperatively are strongly correlated with pain scores at 12 months in the intervention group demonstrating an association with realistic expectations and improved pain scores when a 3D model was used. Thus, personalized 3D printed education is a non- invasive tool that may impact pain coping strategies post-operatively.
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Kaiser, Timo Pascal. "Can Social Interaction Based Expectations Create the Characteristics of the Business Cycle?" Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 64, Issue 4 64, no. 4 (December 1, 2018): 325–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.64.4.325.
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Abstract This paper introduces social-interaction based expectations in a New Keynesian frame and compares the characteristics with that of the standard rational expectation model. Agents in this model are connected with each other and build their rational expectation on their neighborhood’s opinions and recent economic developments. Instead of precise forecast they use rule of thumbs which reflect whether they assume a positive or a negative future. As result an endogenous business cycle arises. The autocorrelation of the output gap is much larger than in a model with rational expectation and two-way causality from output gap to expectation about output gap arises while kurtosis decreases and correlation between inflation and output gap is quite negative. The use of different networks changes the characteristics of the model. Situations where people trust much more their social network than economic developments can lead to continual recession, boom, inflation or deflation. JEL classifications: E10, E32, E71 Keywords: Rational expectations, non linear dynamics, animal spirit
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Duan, Qihong, Xiang Chen, Dengfu Zhao, and Zheng Zhao. "Parameter Estimation of a Multistate Model for an Aging Piece of Equipment under Condition-Based Maintenance." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2012 (2012): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/347675.
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We study a multistate model for an aging piece of equipment under condition-based maintenance and apply an expectation maximization algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. Because of the monitoring discontinuity, we cannot observe any state's duration. The observation consists of the equipment's state at an inspection or right after a repair. Based on a proper construction of stochastic processes involved in the model, calculation of some probabilities and expectations becomes tractable. Using these probabilities and expectations, we can apply an expectation maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters in the model. We carry out simulation studies to test the accuracy and the efficiency of the algorithm.
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Andreassen, Hanne, Olga Gjerald, and Kai Victor Hansen. "“The Good, The Bad, and the Minimum Tolerable”: Exploring Expectations of Institutional Food." Foods 10, no. 4 (April 3, 2021): 767. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods10040767.
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There is a tendency towards greater expectations of consumer goods and services in society—what was once judged as ideal may now be a bare minimum. This presents a challenge for food providers in the upcoming decades. As the more demanding baby boomer cohort ages, health institutions of the future will face challenges meeting their food expectations. The purpose of this study was to explore expectation type dynamics and function with updated empirical material on aging consumers expectations of institutional food and advance our current understanding of how consumers evaluate their expectations. This qualitative study employed in-depth semi structured interviews with 14 informants between the age of 58–79. Content analysis was performed to capture the informants’ food expectations based on the expectation hierarchy proposed by Santos and Boote. Analyzing the content and relationship between different expectation types led to three main findings: expectation functions and content, interconnectedness, and the role of affect. Based on the findings, this study contributes by making several propositions for future research and proposes an updated expectancy–disconfirmation model. Importantly, this study provides novel knowledge that can help health institutions understand and meet aging consumers expectations of institutional food.
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Teas, R. Kenneth. "Expectations, Performance Evaluation, and Consumers’ Perceptions of Quality." Journal of Marketing 57, no. 4 (October 1993): 18–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002224299305700402.
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The author examines conceptual and operational issues associated with the “perceptions-minus-expectations” (P-E) perceived service quality model. The examination indicates that the P-E framework is of questionable validity because of a number of conceptual and definitional problems involving the (1) conceptual definition of expectations, (2) theoretical justification of the expectations component of the P-E framework, and (3) measurement validity of the expectation (E) and revised expectation (E*) measures specified in the published service quality literature. Consequently, alternative perceived quality models that address the problems of the traditional framework are developed and empirically tested.
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Güler, Aslı. "Effectiveness of Expectation Channel of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Inflation Targeting System: An Empirical Study for Turkey." Global Journal of Business, Economics and Management: Current Issues 6, no. 2 (November 4, 2016): 222–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/gjbem.v6i2.1394.
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Monetary policy can affect economy through out various transmission mechanisms. One of this transmission mechanisms is expectations channel. The monetary policy can get involved in expectation channel of transmission mechanism by affecting the process of expectations formation. Because the results of policies to be implemented vary according to the expectations, the main challenge in monetary policy is to correctly manage expectations. Because of the fact that only the systematic component of monetary policy (estimated component) can affect forward looking expectations, systematic behavior of the central bank has a critical role in determining the economic consequences of monetary policy. In this study, the effectiveness of expectation channel of transmission mechanism was analyized by VAR model. According the results TCMB cannot affect inflation expectations via both the inflation targets and the policy interest. On the other hand, inflation expectations are affected significantly from actualized inflation rates and exchange rates.
Keywords: Central bank, Expectations, Monetary transmission mechanisms, Monetary policy
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Kopalle, Praveen K., and Donald R. Lehmann. "The Effects of Advertised and Observed Quality on Expectations about New Product Quality." Journal of Marketing Research 32, no. 3 (August 1995): 280–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002224379503200304.
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The authors describe a model of the effects of advertised and observed quality on consumer expectations about new product quality. They test the model using data from two computer-controlled shopping experiments. In both studies, quadratic and gamma specifications for the effect of advertising claim discrepancy on expectation change fit better than a linear model. Furthermore, the adaptive expectations framework describes the updating of consumer expectations when the consumer observes the quality of the new product. In this setting, the observed quality is more influential than the advertised quality in changing expectations, and “good news” is discounted, whereas “bad news” is more readily accepted.
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Gu, Wei, Ying Xu, and Zeng-Jun Sun. "Does MOOC Quality Affect Users’ Continuance Intention? Based on an Integrated Model." Sustainability 13, no. 22 (November 12, 2021): 12536. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132212536.
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Massive open online course (MOOC) is an innovative educational model that has attracted widespread attention in recent years. Despite a growing number of registered users, many have given up continuously using MOOC platforms after the first-time user experience; thus, a high dropout rate has severely hindered the sustainable development of MOOC platforms. To address the problem, this study started with the quality factors of MOOC platforms and the confirmation of user expectations by integrating the D&M ISS model and the expectation confirmation model into one, with the goal of identifying the factors that affect users’ continuance intention to use MOOC platforms. In this study, online questionnaires were distributed to Chinese users with experience in using MOOC platforms, and a total of 550 valid samples were recovered. In addition, the theoretical model was tested using structural equation modeling (SEM). The research results showed that there are three critical antecedents affecting the confirmation of user expectations for a MOOC platform, including information quality, system quality, and service quality, of which service quality has the greatest impact on users’ expectation confirmation. If user expectations for an MOOC platform are positively confirmed, the perceived usefulness of the platform as well as the satisfaction with it will effectively be improved. Moreover, perceived usefulness has been proven to be a critical factor affecting users’ continuance intention to use MOOC platforms, which is followed by user satisfaction. Compared to the original ECM, the integrated research model has delivered significantly improved explanatory power for users’ continuance intention. Hence, this study makes up for the insufficiency of ECM in explaining the factors affecting users’ expectation confirmation and provides theoretical support for MOOC platform developers.
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Yi, Sangyoon, and Jae-Hyeon Ahn. "Managing initial expectations when word-of-mouth matters." European Journal of Marketing 51, no. 1 (February 13, 2017): 123–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ejm-10-2015-0752.
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Purpose Consumer expectation not only influences purchase decision but also post-purchase satisfaction and word-of-mouth (WOM). This study aims to develop theories of initial expectation management by suggesting when it is desirable for new products to raise or lower consumer expectations. It systematically examines the interplay of product value and consumer heterogeneity in the dynamic process of new product diffusion under competition. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on traditional diffusion and choice models, this study develops an agent-based model to formalize and analyze how consumers’ initial expectations of a new product influence the interdependent processes of product sales, consumer satisfaction and WOM. The simulation analyses in controlled settings help understand the underlying mechanisms in a stepwise manner. Findings The results show that, although the optimal strategy for low-value products is to induce consumer expectations higher than product value, high-value products are better introduced with expectations formed close to it. The results also highlight an important drawback of “under-promising” strategies in reducing the base and volume of WOM. Further, the analysis illustrates how consumer heterogeneities in product valuation and initial expectation affect the effectiveness of expectation management. For high-value products, both heterogeneities reduce the effectiveness of the optimal strategy. For low-value products, however, value heterogeneity enhances the effectiveness, whereas expectation heterogeneity reduces it. Practical implications Firms introducing new products should be sensitive to how consumers value the product and form expectations about it. Different from firms that must rely on aggressive advertising to sell inferior products by building up high expectations, those with superior products can rely more on the power of consumer WOM, which is much less costly and thus gives them a competitive advantage. Firms should also pay attention to how diversified the consumers are in product valuation and expectation. The expectation management strategy is more effective when consumers form more similar expectations. Inferior firms may leverage this mechanism to neutralize their disadvantages. Originality/value The articulated mechanisms help push forward the research on new product diffusion and consumer expectation management. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies to systematically analyze the impact of consumer heterogeneity on the effectiveness of expectation management.
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L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, Sanjay R. Singh, and Donghoon Yoo. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework." Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series 2023, no. 19 (March 1, 2023): 01–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.24148/wp2023-19.
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Diagnostic expectations constitute a realistic behavioral model of inference. This paper shows that this approach to expectation formation can be productively integrated into the New Keynesian framework. Diagnostic expectations generate endogenous extrapolation in general equilibrium. We show that diagnostic expectations generate extra amplification in the presence of nominal frictions; a fall in aggregate supply generates a Keynesian recession; fiscal policy is more effective at stimulating the economy. We perform Bayesian estimation of a rich medium-scale model that incorporates consensus forecast data. Our estimate of the diagnosticity parameter is in line with previous studies. Moreover, we find empirical evidence in favor of the diagnostic model. Diagnostic expectations offer new propagation mechanisms to explain fluctuations.
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Hutton, Dorothy, Janice Lockhart, and Marilyn Cobain. "Expectations of Career Counselling." Australian Journal of Career Development 2, no. 3 (September 1993): 27–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/103841629300200310.
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The research in this study is based on the work of Tinsley (1982, 1992) on expectations of counselling and work of Galassi, Grace, Martin, James, and Wallace (1992) on the expectations of career counselling. The perspective taken by this paper, in support of Galassi et al. (1992), is that career counselling needs to be investigated as a discrete area of counselling. The brief version of the Expectation of Counseling (EOCB) and additional items based on a decision-making model of career counselling were given to 278 respondents from educational institutions. The findings indicate that the expectations of the groups converge. There was a general expectation that career counselling would take more than three sessions. The significant differences in the scores on the subscales for the groups do not indicate that counsellors, providers, clients, and students are working on substantially different models. The preferred model of the respondent group was for some elements of the career counselling decision-making model using a client centred humanistic approach rather than a testing and guidance model. Clients/students indicated that they expected the process to be pleasurable, whereas counsellors/providers did not expect this. There is a surprise finding that the central elements of the decision-making process, self exploration and decision-making were not part of the expectation set. It is recommended that future research in this field use a career counselling specific instrument.
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Zheng, Hui, Wenjing Huang, Juan Li, Qianhua Zheng, Ying Li, Xiaorong Chang, Guojie Sun, and Fanrong Liang. "Association of Pre- and Post-Treatment Expectations with Improvements after Acupuncture in Patients with Migraine." Acupuncture in Medicine 33, no. 2 (April 2015): 121–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/acupmed-2014-010679.
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Objective To study whether a higher expectation of acupuncture measured at baseline and after acupuncture is associated with better outcome improvements in patients with migraine. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of a previous published trial in which 476 patients with migraine were randomly allocated to three real acupuncture groups and one sham acupuncture control group. All the participants received 20 sessions of acupuncture over a 4-week period. The primary outcome was the number of days with a migraine attack (NDMA) assessed at 5–8 weeks after randomisation. The secondary outcomes were visual analogue scale, headache intensity and quality of life assessed at 4, 8 and 16 weeks after randomisation. Expectations of the acupuncture effect were assessed at baseline and at the end of treatment and categorised into five levels, with 0% the lowest and 100% the highest. Outcome improvement was first compared among the participants with different expectation levels using an analysis of variance model. The association between expectations of treatment and outcome improvement was then calculated using a logistic regression model. Results Patients with 100% baseline expectations did not report significantly fewer NDMA than those with 0% baseline expectations after adjusting for the covariates (at 5–8 weeks, 1.7 vs 3.9 days, p=0.987). High baseline expectations had no significant impact on improvement of the primary outcome (100% vs 0%: OR 8.50, 95% CI 0.89 to 191.65, p=0.682). However, patients with 100% post-treatment expectations reported fewer NDMA than those with 0% expectations (primary outcome: 1.3 vs 5.0 days, p<0.001) and were more likely to have a favourable response (100% vs 0%: OR 68.87, 95% CI 6.26 to 1449.73, p=0.002). Similar results were found when analysing the impact of expectation on the secondary outcomes. Conclusions A high level of expectation after acupuncture treatment rather than at baseline was associated with better long-term outcome improvements in patients with migraine. Clinical Trial Number NCT00599586.
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HOOGENVEEN, VICTORIA, and ELMER STERKEN. "Parameterization of model-consistent expectations in monetary policy models." Applied Financial Economics 9, no. 2 (April 1999): 193–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/096031099332456.
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