Relevant bibliographies by topics / Expectational Model

Academic literature on the topic 'Expectational Model'

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Published: 8 September 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Expectational Model"

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Heinemann, Maik. "CONVERGENCE OF ADAPTIVE LEARNING AND EXPECTATIONAL STABILITY: THE CASE OF MULTIPLE RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS EQUILIBRIA." Macroeconomic Dynamics 4, no. 3 (September 2000): 263–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100500016011.

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This paper analyzes the relationship between the expectational stability of rational expectations solutions and the possible convergence of adaptive learning processes. Both concepts are used as selection criteria in the case of multiple rational expectations solutions. Results obtained using recursive least squares lead to the conjecture that there exists a general one-to-one correspondence between these two selection criteria. On the basis of a simple linear model and a stochastic gradient algorithm as an alternative learning procedure, it is demonstrated that such a conjecture would be incorrect: There are cases in which stochastic gradient learning converges to rational expectations solutions that are not expectationally stable.
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Koustas, Zisimos. "Some model-based tests of expectational rationality." Atlantic Economic Journal 17, no. 2 (June 1989): 53–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02304821.

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Sunder, Shyam. "Management Control, Expectations, Common Knowledge, and Culture." Journal of Management Accounting Research 14, no. 1 (January 1, 2002): 173–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/jmar.2002.14.1.173.

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Control in organizations can be defined as expectational equilibrium, or correspondence between how the members of an organization behave and how others expect them to behave. Using a contract model of organizations as the base, we use human expectations, common knowledge, and culture to propose a theory of control. Changes in factor and product market conditions tend to disrupt control in organizations. Strategic management consists of continual monitoring and anticipation of market conditions, and redesign, negotiation, and implementation of contracts to restore and maintain the expectational equilibrium.
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Van Zandt, Timothy, and Martin Lettau. "ROBUSTNESS OF ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS AS AN EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION DEVICE." Macroeconomic Dynamics 7, no. 1 (January 7, 2003): 89–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100502010313.

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Dynamic models in which agents' behavior depends on expectations of future prices or other endogenous variables can have steady states that are stationary equilibria for a wide variety of expectations rules, including rational expectations. When there are multiple steady states, stability is a criterion for selecting among them as predictions of long-run outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to study how sensitive stability is to certain details of the expectations rules, in a simple OLG model with constant government debt that is financed through seigniorage. We compare simple recursive learning rules, learning rules with vanishing gain, and OLS learning, and also relate these to expectational stability. One finding is that two adaptive expectation rules that differ only in whether they use current information can have opposite stability properties.
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Cho, In-Koo, and Kenneth Kasa. "Gresham's Law of Model Averaging." American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 1, 2017): 3589–616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160665.

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A decision maker doubts the stationarity of his environment. In response, he uses two models, one with time-varying parameters, and another with constant parameters. Forecasts are then based on a Bayesian model averaging strategy, which mixes forecasts from the two models. In reality, structural parameters are constant, but the (unknown) true model features expectational feedback, which the reduced-form models neglect. This feedback permits fears of parameter instability to become self-confirming. Within the context of a standard asset-pricing model, we use the tools of large deviations theory to show that even though the constant parameter model would converge to the rational expectations equilibrium if considered in isolation, the mere presence of an unstable alternative drives it out of consideration. (JEL C63, D83, D84)
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Xu, Xiaoli, and Yibei Ling. "A study on the expectational model for tumor growth." International Journal of Bio-Medical Computing 22, no. 2 (March 1988): 135–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0020-7101(88)90049-9.

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Kurozumi, Takushi, and Willem Van Zandweghe. "TREND INFLATION AND EQUILIBRIUM STABILITY: FIRM-SPECIFIC VERSUS HOMOGENEOUS LABOR." Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, no. 4 (August 8, 2016): 947–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000784.

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In sticky price models based on micro evidence that each period a fraction of prices are kept unchanged, recent studies reach the qualitatively equivalent conclusion that higher trend inflation is a more serious source of indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibrium, regardless of whether labor is firm-specific or homogeneous. This paper shows that the model with firm-specific labor is more susceptible to indeterminacy induced by high trend inflation than the model with homogeneous labor, because these two different specifications of labor lead to distinct representations of inflation dynamics. In addition, the model with firm-specific labor is more susceptible to expectational instability of the equilibrium caused by high trend inflation.
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Evans, George W., and Seppo Honkapohja. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28, no. 1 (October 2003): 171–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1889(02)00137-9.

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Pfajfar, Damjan, and Emiliano Santoro. "CREDIT MARKET DISTORTIONS, ASSET PRICES AND MONETARY POLICY." Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no. 3 (September 28, 2012): 631–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000557.

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We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of pass-through of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong cost-side effects limit the size of the policy rate response to inflation that is consistent with determinacy, so that inflation-targeting policies may not be capable of ensuring REE uniqueness. In this case it is advisable to combine policy rate responses to inflation with an appropriate reaction to the output gap and/or firm profitability. The negative reaction of real activity and asset prices to inflationary shocks adds a negative force to inflation responses that counteracts the borrowing cost effect and prevents expectations of higher inflation from becoming self-fulfilling.
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Arifovic, Jasmina, and James Bullard. "INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE: NEW APPROACHES TO LEARNING IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 5, no. 02 (April 2001): 143–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100501019010.

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The research questions addressed by the literature on learning in macroeconomics can be classified into four categories: First, there are issues related to the convergence and stability under learning in models with unique rational expectations equilibria. Authors here are concerned mainly with the learnability of a rational expectations equilibrium, as a measure of that equilibrium's plausibility as an observed outcome in an actual economy. Second, there are issues related to convergence and stability under learning in models with multiple rational expectations equilibria. In this case, learnability serves as an equilibrium selection device, helping economists decide which equilibria are the more likely to be actually observed among the many that exist under rational expectations. A third set of issues involves the examination of transitional dynamics that accompanies the equilibrium selection process. Following some type of unexpected strcutural change or change in policy regime, for instance, economies necessarily must follow temporary transitional paths to a rational expectations equilibrium associated with the new reality. Learning is sometimes used to help model such transitional dynamics. Finally, there are issues related to the examination of learning dynamics that are intrinsically different, even asymptotically, from the dynamics of the rational expectations versions of the models. In these cases, the learning dynamics do not converge to the rational expectations fixed points, and (unexploitable) expectational errors persist indefinitely. Some authors have tried to make use of this possibility in order to build explanations of otherwise puzzling macroeconomic phenomena based on constantly changing expectations.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Expectational Model"

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Galbraith, J. W. "Modelling the formation of expectations." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.381848.

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Kræmer, John Ph D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "An expectation model of referring expressions." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62046.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, 2010.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 297-205).
This thesis introduces EMRE, an expectation-based model of referring expressions. EMRE is proposed as a model of non-syntactic dependencies - in particular, discourse-level semantic dependencies that bridge sentence gaps. These include but are not limited to anaphora (references to noun phrases in previous sentences) and coherence predicates such as causality, temporal ordering and resemblance -- two domains that have typically been treated as entirely distinct aspects of language. EMRE is a computational-level model, and is agnostic about any particular algorithms, cognitive faculties, or neurological substrates that might be applied to the problem of semantic reference. Instead, it describes reference as a computational problem framed in terms of expectation and inference, and describes a solution to the problem based on rational top-down expectations about the likely targets of referring expressions, and on bottom-up feature-based matching that occurs when a referring expression is encountered. EMRE is used to derive novel empirical predictions about how people will construe particular discourse constructions involving NP anaphora and coherence predicates. These predictions are tested in controlled behavioral experiments, in which participants read and answer questions about short texts. The results of these experiments are shown to be consistent with a model of reference as an expectation-based computational structure with different underlying rules than those governing syntactic processing.
by John Kræmer.
Ph.D.
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Morman, Karen. "Teacher Expectations of a Literacy Coaching Model." ScholarWorks, 2016. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/2415.

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Public school instructional coaching programs are designed to improve pedagogy via collaboration between teachers and coaches. However, the utility of literacy coaching is limited because teachers may lack understanding of the instructional coaching model. The purpose of this case study was to explore teachers' expectations of literacy coaching in order to enhance professional development and teacher-coach partnerships. Guided by Knowles adult learning theory which states that adults benefit from designing and understanding relevancy of learning, this study examined elementary teachers' perceptions of the coaching model. The guiding questions explored ways to optimize teacher professional growth through coaching. Four teachers who had partnered with literacy coaches were selected as participants. Qualitative data were collected from the participants through in-depth interviews and a researcher-created, open-ended questionnaire. The interviews allowed for probing questions, and the questionnaires provided time for detailed reflections on the part of participants. Qualitative data were analyzed to determine coding categories, and consistent with Knowles adult learning theory, prominent themes regarding self-direction and relevancy of learning emerged. Results indicated that the teachers believed literacy coaches to have a positive impact on their pedagogical growth, but current methods provided inadequate clarity about the coaching model to be relevant to teachers. Based on the results, professional development sessions were designed to support teacher-coach partnerships which will benefit students, teachers, coaches, and administrators by providing a collaborative foundation to promote student success.
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Zumpe, Martin Kai. "Stabilité macroéconomique, apprentissage et politique monétaire : une approche comparative : modélisation DSGE versus modélisation multi-agents." Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR40022/document.

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Cette thèse analyse le rôle de l’apprentissage dans deux cadres de modélisation distincts. Dans le cas dunouveau modèle canonique avec apprentissage adaptatif, les caractéristiques les plus marquantes des dynamiquesd’apprentissage concernent la capacité des règles de politique monétaire à assurer la convergencevers l’équilibre en anticipations rationnelles. Le mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire estcelui de l’effet de substitution associé au canal de la consommation. Dans le cas d’un modèle multi-agentsqui relâche des hypothèses restrictives du nouveau modèle canonique, tout en restant structurellementproche de celui-ci, les variables agrégées évoluent à bonne distance de cet équilibre, et on observe desdynamiques nettement différentes. La politique monétaire influence les variables agrégées de manièremarginale via l’effet de revenu du canal de la consommation. En présence d’un processus d’apprentissagesocial évolutionnaire, l’économie converge vers un faible niveau d’activité économique. L’introductiond’un processus caractérisé par le fait que les agents apprennent individuellement à l’aide de leurs modèlesmentaux atténue le caractère dépressif des dynamiques d’apprentissage. Ces différences entre les deuxcadres de modélisation démontrent la difficulté de généraliser les résultats du nouveau modèle canonique
This thesis analyses the role of learning in two different modelling frameworks. In the new canonicalmodel with adaptive learning, the most remarkable characteristics of the learning dynamics deal withthe capacity of monetary policy rules to guaranty convergence to the rational expectations equilibrium.The transmission mechanism of the monetary policy is based on the substitution effect associated to theconsumption channel. In the case of an agent-based model which relaxes some restrictive assumptionsof the new canonical model - but is endowed with a similar structure - aggregate variables evolve atsome distance from the rational expectations equilibrium. Monetary policy has a marginal impact onthe agregated variables via the wealth effect of the consumption channel. When agents learn accordingto an evolutionnary social learning process, the economy converges to regions of low economic activity.The introduction of a process where agents learn individually by using their mental models induces lessdepressive learning dynamics. These differences between the two modelling frameworks show that thegeneralisation of the results of the new canonical model is not easy to achieve
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Creel, James Silas. "Intention is commitment with expectation." Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2313.

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Modal logics with possible worlds semantics can be used to represent mental states such as belief, goal, and intention, allowing one to formally describe the rational behavior of agents. Agent??s beliefs and goals are typically represented in these logics by primitive modal operators. However, the representation of agent??s intentions varies greatly between theories. Some logics characterize intention as a primitive operator, while others define intention in terms of more primitive constructs. Taking the latter approach is a theory due to Philip Cohen and Hector Levesque, under which intentions are a special form of commitment or persistent goal. The theory has motivated theories of speech acts and joint intention and innovative applications in multiagent systems and industrial robotics. However, Munindar Singh shows the theory to have certain logical inconsistencies and permit certain absurd scenarios. This thesis presents a modification of the theory that preserves the desirable aspects of the original while addressing the criticism of Singh. This is achieved by the introduction of an additional operator describing the achievement of expectations, refined assumptions, and new defi- nitions of intention. The modified theory gives a cogent account of the rational balance between agents?? action and deliberation, and suggests the use of meansends reasoning in agent implementations. A rule-based reasoner in Jess facilitates evaluation of the predictiveness and intuitiveness of the theory, and provides a prototypical agent based on the theory.
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Qi, Yuan 1974. "Extending expectation propagation for graphical models." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/30215.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and Planning, Program in Media Arts and Sciences, 2005.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-106).
Graphical models have been widely used in many applications, ranging from human behavior recognition to wireless signal detection. However, efficient inference and learning techniques for graphical models are needed to handle complex models, such as hybrid Bayesian networks. This thesis proposes extensions of expectation propagation, a powerful generalization of loopy belief propagation, to develop efficient Bayesian inference and learning algorithms for graphical models. The first two chapters of the thesis present inference algorithms for generative graphical models, and the next two propose learning algorithms for conditional graphical models. First, the thesis proposes a window-based EP smoothing algorithm for online estimation on hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks. For an application in wireless communications, window-based EP smoothing achieves estimation accuracy comparable to sequential Monte Carlo methods, but with less than one-tenth computational cost. Second, it develops a new method that combines tree-structured EP approximations with the junction tree for inference on loopy graphs. This new method saves computation and memory by propagating messages only locally to a subgraph when processing each edge in the entire graph. Using this local propagation scheme, this method is not only more accurate, but also faster than loopy belief propagation and structured variational methods. Third, it proposes predictive automatic relevance determination (ARD) to enhance classification accuracy in the presence of irrelevant features. ARD is a Bayesian technique for feature selection.
(cont.) The thesis discusses the overfitting problem associated with ARD, and proposes a method that optimizes the estimated predictive performance, instead of maximizing the model evidence. For a gene expression classification problem, predictive ARD outperforms previous methods, including traditional ARD as well as support vector machines combined with feature selection techniques. Finally, it presents Bayesian conditional random fields (BCRFs) for classifying interdependent and structured data, such as sequences, images or webs. BCRFs estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters and average prediction over this posterior to avoid overfitting. For the problems of frequently-asked-question labeling and of ink recognition, BCRFs achieve superior prediction accuracy over conditional random fields trained with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori criteria.
by Yuan Qi.
Ph.D.
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Pollio, G. "Empirical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis." Thesis, City University London, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.351632.

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Zhang, Xiaohua 1964. "Price expectations in perennial crop supply models." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/291531.

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In the analysis of investment and production decisions for perennial crops, expectations play a critical role. This thesis studied three hypotheses about price expectations and reviewed five supply response models for perennial crops. An empirical model for the apple industry was developed to test alternative representations of expected prices. The naive and adaptive expectation model performed well with national data, whereas moving averages of price and the adaptive expectations model performed better with Washington data. To improve estimates of supply response for perennial crops, better data are needed to describe new plantings, removals, the age distribution of trees, production costs, and climatic conditions. Rapid technological change in the U.S. apple industry may cause producers to revise the way they form expected prices, encouraging them to use more historical information and paying more attention to projections of future demand. Rational expectations perspectives may become increasingly relevant.
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Davis, J. G. "A rational expectations model of the Federal Republic of Germany." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.377979.

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Elhouar, Mikael. "Essays on interest rate theory." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Finansiell Ekonomi (FI), 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-451.

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Books on the topic "Expectational Model"

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Dolado, Juan José. An expectational model of labour demand in Spanish industry. Madrid: Banco de España, Servicio de Estudios, 1985.

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Branch, William A. Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models. Kansas City [Mo.]: Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2007.

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Kollintzas, Tryphon, ed. The Rational Expectations Equilibrium Inventory Model. New York, NY: Springer US, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-6374-3.

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Westaway, Peter. Consistent expectations in the Treasury model. London: Treasury, 1986.

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Blake, A. P. The Treasury model under rational expectations. London: University of London. Queen Mary College. Department of Economics, 1986.

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Pesaran, Hashem. Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations. Cambridge: Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, 1993.

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Fisher, Paul. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8002-1.

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Kowal, James A. Behavior models: Specifying users' expectations. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1992.

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Kowal, James A. Behavior models: Specifying user's expectations. Englewood Cliffs, N.J: Prentice Hall, 1992.

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Rational expectations in macroeconomic models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992.

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Book chapters on the topic "Expectational Model"

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Jiang, Di, Chen Zhang, and Yuanfeng Song. "Expectation Maximization." In Probabilistic Topic Models, 53–62. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-2431-8_4.

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Osborne, Martin J., and Ariel Rubinstein. "Equilibrium with prices and expectations." In Models in Microeconomic Theory, 187–202. 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: Open Book Publishers, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.11647/obp.0362.13.

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In the models of markets we have discussed so far, equilibrium prices make the individuals’ decisions compatible. Each individual takes the prices as given when deciding on his action, and at the equilibrium prices the demand and supply of every good are equal. In this chapter, an individual’s behavior is affected not only by the prices but also by his expectations regarding other parameters. Each individual takes these expectations, like the prices, as given. In equilibrium, each individual behaves optimally, the supply and demand for each good are equal, and the expectations of individuals are correct. We present three models. In the first model, each individual chooses one of two bank branches. His decision is affected only by his belief about the expected service time in each branch. In the second model, potential buyers of a used car, who cannot observe the quality of the cars for sale, take into account their expectation of the average quality of these cars as well as the price. In the third model, the unit cost of catching fish depends on the total amount of fish caught. Each fisher makes his decision taking as given both the price of fish and his expectation about the unit cost he will incur.
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Osborne, Martin J., and Ariel Rubinstein. "Equilibrium with prices and expectations." In Models in Microeconomic Theory, 187–202. 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: Open Book Publishers, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.11647/obp.0361.13.

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In the models of markets we have discussed so far, equilibrium prices make the individuals’ decisions compatible. Each individual takes the prices as given when deciding on her action, and at the equilibrium prices the demand and supply of every good are equal. In this chapter, an individual’s behavior is affected not only by the prices but also by her expectations regarding other parameters. Each individual takes these expectations, like the prices, as given. In equilibrium, each individual behaves optimally, the supply and demand for each good are equal, and the expectations of individuals are correct. We present three models. In the first model, each individual chooses one of two bank branches. Her decision is affected only by her belief about the expected service time in each branch. In the second model, potential buyers of a used car, who cannot observe the quality of the cars for sale, take into account their expectation of the average quality of these cars as well as the price. In the third model, the unit cost of catching fish depends on the total amount of fish caught. Each fisher makes her decision taking as given both the price of fish and her expectation about the unit cost she will incur.
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Davis, Mark H. A. "Distributions and expectations." In Markov Models and Optimization, 81–133. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-4483-2_3.

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Pauletto, Giorgio. "Rational Expectations Models." In Advances in Computational Economics, 93–137. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2631-2_5.

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Clements, Michael P. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Surveys Versus Models?" In Macroeconomic Survey Expectations, 123–43. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97223-7_7.

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Clements, Michael P. "Behavioural Models of Expectations Formation." In Macroeconomic Survey Expectations, 145–72. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97223-7_8.

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Frydman, Roman, and Michael D. Goldberg. "6. Opening Models of Asset Prices and Risk to Nonroutine Change." In Rethinking Expectations, edited by Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps, 207–48. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400846450.207.

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Mitchell, Terence R. "Expectancy-Value Models in Organizational Psychology." In Expectations and Actions, 293–312. London: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003150879-16.

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Holden, K., D. A. Peel, and J. L. Thompson. "Expectations in Econometric Models." In Expectations: Theory and Evidence, 143–62. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-17862-9_6.

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Conference papers on the topic "Expectational Model"

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Lu, Shu Quan, Shiyu Xie, and Takao Ito. "Estimation of the Rigidity and Expectational Model." In 2009 Fifth International Joint Conference on INC, IMS and IDC. IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ncm.2009.148.

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Yanagisawa, Hideyoshi, and Natsu Mikami. "Effects of Expectation Uncertainty and Surprise on Quality Perception Factors of Expectation Effect." In ASME 2014 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2014-34458.

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In the user’s perception of a product’s qualities, the state of their sensory modality may shift from one state to another. For example, users see and then touch a product to perceive its texture. Between such state transitions, users have expectations regarding their subsequent states based on their experience of a current state event. Expectation effect is a psychological effect in which prior expectation changes posterior perception itself. The effect is a key factor to design user’s emotions induced by expectation disconfirmation as well as designing a perceived quality based on prior expectations. Although experimental findings on the expectation effect exist in a variety of research disciplines, general and theoretical models of the effect have been largely neglected. The present authors previously found out the visual expectation effect on tactile perceptions of surface texture. The causes of the expectation effect, however, remain largely unexplored. To intentionally design the expectation effect, general and theoretical models that estimates conditions of the effect is needed. In this paper, we propose a theoretical model of the expectation effect using information theory and an affective expectation model (AEM). We hypothesize that Shannon’s entropy of the prior subjective probability distributions of posterior experience determines the occurrence of the expectation effect and that the amount of information gained after experiencing a posterior event is positively correlated with the intensity of the expectation effect. We further hypothesize that a conscious level of expectation discrepancy distinguishes between two types of expectation effect, namely, assimilation and contrast. To verify these hypotheses, we conducted an experiment in which participants responded to the tactile qualities of surface texture. In the experiment, we extracted the visual expectation effect on tactile roughness during a sensory modality transition from vision to touch and analyzed the causes of the effect based on our hypotheses. The experimental results indicated the appropriateness of the proposed model of the expectation effect.
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Wells, Peter, and J.-P. Skeete. "Circular Business Models as Instruments of Corporate Power." In New Business Models 2023. Maastricht University Press, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.26481/mup.2302.36.

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The creation of circular business models to deliver the circular economy has been widely accepted as offering significant sustainability benefits. A related expectation is that in creating circular business models, focal companies will necessarily need to encompass multiple stakeholder partnerships to access the resources and skills which they lack. In combination, these two expectations result in a neglect of the potential for focal companies to increase their power and control over the entire product lifecycle for which the outcomes are at best uncertain. This paper proposes a research agenda on corporate power in the circular economy, with a focus on the exclusive control over natural capital that circularity may enable in the form of circular vertical integration. Competitive forces are argued to be fundamental to the corporate drive to control natural capital. The paper is empirically grounded in a case study of VW Group in the automotive industry and its transition to battery electric vehicles. It is concluded that previous research into business model innovation for the circular economy has often mistakenly assumed benign stewardship in which corporate hegemony is mitigated by stakeholder engagement, such that a more critical perspective is needed.
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Wan, Yi, Muhammad Zaheer, Adam White, Martha White, and Richard S. Sutton. "Planning with Expectation Models." In Twenty-Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-19}. California: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2019/506.

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Distribution and sample models are two popular model choices in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL). However, learning these models can be intractable, particularly when the state and action spaces are large. Expectation models, on the other hand, are relatively easier to learn due to their compactness and have also been widely used for deterministic environments. For stochastic environments, it is not obvious how expectation models can be used for planning as they only partially characterize a distribution. In this paper, we propose a sound way of using approximate expectation models for MBRL. In particular, we 1) show that planning with an expectation model is equivalent to planning with a distribution model if the state value function is linear in state features, 2) analyze two common parametrization choices for approximating the expectation: linear and non-linear expectation models, 3) propose a sound model-based policy evaluation algorithm and present its convergence results, and 4) empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed planning algorithm.
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Abdulla, Farzanna Yashera, and Jabil Mapjabil. "REVIEW OF THEORIES AND MODEL OF RESEARCH ON LIMINALITY IN TOURISM." In GLOBAL TOURISM CONFERENCE 2021. PENERBIT UMT, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46754/gtc.2021.11.048.

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Liminality is important in the tourism field to measure the tourist experience from their satisfaction, whether the actual reality experienced meets their expectations. Conceptual research method using secondary data are used in this study. This paper reviews some selected theories and models to comprehend more on the concept of liminality with tourism. For that, the theories and models that would be examined are Five Phases Tourism Model (1966), SERVQUAL Model (1988), Liminality Tourism Structure Model (2019) and Classical and Post-modern Liminality Comparative Theory (2016). The Five Phases Tourism Model is a model used to describe the experience in various phases: expectation, away trip, tourist destination, return trip, and memories, while a SERVQUAL Model is used to measure the quality of service. The Liminality Tourism Structure Model describes the tourist experience from various elements such as physical, social, and emotional. Finally, the Classical and Post-modern Liminality Comparative Theory compares the classical liminal experience of society in ancient times and the liminal experience of post-modern society. The literature review results show that the theories and models aid in explaining tourist experience using five phases and was influenced by several aspects. Thus, the combination of all these existing models related to liminality will help to understand tourists more deeply and measure the level of tourist satisfaction that are seen from their experience, expectation, and the actual reality being experienced by them.
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Fink, Lauren K. "Computational models of temporal expectations." In Future Directions of Music Cognition. The Ohio State University Libraries, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18061/fdmc.2021.0041.

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"SEMI-SUPERVISED LEARNING OF ALTERNATIVELY SPLICED EXONS USING EXPECTATION MAXIMIZATION TYPE APPROACHES." In International Conference on Bioinformatics Models, Methods and Algorithms. SciTePress - Science and and Technology Publications, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0003791802400245.

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Meng, Ming-Qiang, and Yan-Kui Liu. "Fuzzy Expectation-Based Data Envelopment Analysis Model." In 2007 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics. IEEE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icmlc.2007.4370341.

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Chiang, Yu-Jui, and Hsu-Feng Hsiao. "Expectation Model and Scheduling for Video Streaming." In 2018 IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems (ISCAS). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iscas.2018.8351571.

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Chereshova, S. V. "Remuneration of Subjects of Parental Labour in Modern Russia: from Expectations to Reality." In XII Ural Demographic Forum “Paradigms and models of demographic development”. Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/udf-2021-2-19.

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The paper considers current financial incentives for the subjects of parental labour and the peculiarities of state regulation in the field. Based on the data of a sociological study conducted in the city of Ekaterinburg in 2018, the research analyses the views of the subjects of parental labour on the remuneration for parental work, as well as their preferences regarding the forms and types of such remuneration. It was concluded that families with children prefer a permanent cash allowance, despite the fact that financial remuneration is not the main and only form of remuneration for parental labour. There is a discrepancy between the existing state support measures and the requests of the subjects of parental labour. It is necessary to adjust the state support measures taking into account the expectations of the subjects of such labour. Ключевые слова: ТРУД
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Reports on the topic "Expectational Model"

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Oliveira, Lucas Gabriel Martins de. Which One Predicts Better?: Comparing Different GDP Nowcasting Methods Using Brazilian Data. Inter-American Development Bank, July 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0005004.

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The objective of this paper is to develop a basic framework for the implementation of a GDP nowcasting strategy using Brazilian data. Our goal is to identify a scalable strategy that allows us to project the Brazilian GDP in real time at any point during the current quarter. In the paper we detail the survey of classical techniques and also of techniques usually known by market practitioners as "machine learning methods". We survey the literature since the first work on estimating business cycles and document the evolution of this literature until the insertion of machine learning methods. Additionally, we perform backtesting exercises, estimate several candidate models for GDP nowcasting. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting power of all models against a naive model and a market expectations model. We demonstrate that a combination of machine learning models based on the distance of forecasts to the average market expectations defeats the fully informed market expectations, while the same is not possible for selected classical nowcasting models.
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Molavi, Pooya, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, and Andrea Vedolin. Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w28408.

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Romero-Chamorro, José Vicente, and Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga. Weather Shocks and Inflation Expectations in Semi-Structural Models. Banco de la República Colombia, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1218.

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Colombia is particularly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather fluctuations. In this context, this study explores how the adverse weather events linked to ENSO affect the inflation expectations in Colombia and how to incorporate these second-round effects into a small open economy New Keynesian model. Using BVARx models we provide evidence that the inflation expectations obtained from surveys and break-even inflation measures are affected by weather supply shocks. Later, using this stylised fact, we modify one of the core forecasting models of the Banco de la República by incorporating the mechanisms in which weather-related shocks affect marginal costs and inflation expectations. We find that ENSO shocks had an important role in both inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations, and that policymakers should consider this fact.
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Hajdini, Ina, Edward S. Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu O. Pedemonte, Robert W. Rich, and Raphael S. Schoenle. Low passthrough from inflation expectations to income growth expectations: why people dislike inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202221r.

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We implement a novel methodology to disentangle two-way causality in inflation and income expectations in a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers. We find a 20 percent passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth, but no statistically significant effect in the other direction. Passthrough is higher for higher-income individuals and men. Higher inflation expectations increase consumers’ likelihood to search for higherpaying new jobs. In a calibrated search-and-matching model, dampened responses of wages to demand and supply shocks translate into greater output fluctuations. The survey results and model analysis provide a labor market channel for why people dislike inflation.
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Hajdini, Ina. Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202203r.

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The paper considers a New Keynesian framework in which agents form expectations based on a combination of autoregressive mis-specified forecasts and myopia. The proposed expectations formation process is shown to be consistent with all three empirical facts on consensus inflation forecasts. However, while mis-specified forecasts can be both sufficient and necessary to match all three facts, myopia alone is neither. The paper then derives the general equilibrium solution consistent with the proposed expectations formation process and estimates the model with likelihood-based Bayesian methods, yielding three novel results: (i) macroeconomic data strongly prefer a combination of autoregressive mis-specified forecasting rules - of the VAR(1) or AR(1) type - and myopia over other alternatives; (ii) no strong evidence is found in favor of VAR(1) forecasts over simple AR(1) rules; and (iii) frictions such as habit in consumption, which are typically necessary for models with full-information rational expectations, are significantly less important, because the proposed expectations generate substantial internal persistence and amplification to exogenous shocks. Simulated inflation expectations data from the estimated general equilibrium model reflect the three empirical facts on forecasting data.
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Gaspar, Jess, and Kenneth Judd. Solving Large Scale Rational Expectations Models. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, February 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/t0207.

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Farmer, Roger E. A., Tao Zha, and Daniel Waggoner. Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w14710.

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Koşar, Gizem, and Cormac O'Dea. Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w30094.

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Baldwin, Richard. The Core-Periphery Model with Forward-Looking Expectations. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, February 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w6921.

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Beyer, Andreas, Roger E. Farmer, Jérôme Henry, and Massimiliano Marcellino. Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13404.

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