Journal articles on the topic 'Evolutionary impacts of climate change'
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Marshall, Katie Elizabeth, Karl Gotthard, and Caroline Margaret Williams. "Evolutionary impacts of winter climate change on insects." Current Opinion in Insect Science 41 (October 2020): 54–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cois.2020.06.003.
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Sheldon, Kimberly S. "Climate Change in the Tropics: Ecological and Evolutionary Responses at Low Latitudes." Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 50, no. 1 (November 2, 2019): 303–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110218-025005.
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Climate change is affecting every ecosystem on Earth. Though climate change is global in scope, literature reviews on the biotic impacts of climate change have focused on temperate and polar regions. Tropical species have distinct life histories and physiologies, and ecological communities are assembled differently across latitude. Thus, tropical species and communities may exhibit different responses to climate change compared with those in temperate and polar regions. What are the fingerprints of climate change in the tropics? This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on impacts of climate change in tropical regions and discusses research priorities to better understand the ways in which species and ecological communities are responding to climate change in the most biodiverse places on Earth.
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Bestion, Elvire, Andrea Soriano-Redondo, Julien Cucherousset, Staffan Jacob, Joël White, Lucie Zinger, Lisa Fourtune, Lucie Di Gesu, Aimeric Teyssier, and Julien Cote. "Altered trophic interactions in warming climates: consequences for predator diet breadth and fitness." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286, no. 1914 (October 30, 2019): 20192227. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.2227.
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Species interactions are central in predicting the impairment of biodiversity with climate change. Trophic interactions may be altered through climate-dependent changes in either predator food preferences or prey communities. Yet, climate change impacts on predator diet remain surprisingly poorly understood. We experimentally studied the consequences of 2°C warmer climatic conditions on the trophic niche of a generalist lizard predator. We used a system of semi-natural mesocosms housing a variety of invertebrate species and in which climatic conditions were manipulated. Lizards in warmer climatic conditions ate at a greater predatory to phytophagous invertebrate ratio and had smaller individual dietary breadths. These shifts mainly arose from direct impacts of climate on lizard diets rather than from changes in prey communities. Dietary changes were associated with negative changes in fitness-related traits (body condition, gut microbiota) and survival. We demonstrate that climate change alters trophic interactions through top-predator dietary shifts, which might disrupt eco-evolutionary dynamics.
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Stuble, Katharine L., Simone Des Roches, Anthony Ambrose, Kevin C. Brown, Helen Cooper, Timothy Hilton, Barry Sinervo, and Laurel R. Fox. "Regional Networks of Biological Field Stations to Study Climate Change." BioScience 71, no. 8 (May 19, 2021): 874–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biab048.
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Abstract Field stations are platforms for documenting patterns and processes in ecosystems and are critical for understanding how anthropogenic climate change reshapes nature. Although networks of field stations have been used to identify patterns at continental to global scales, these broad, sparsely distributed networks miss variation in climate change at local and regional scales. We propose that regional-scale research networks are essential for addressing the myriad of ecological and evolutionary challenges—including management and mitigation options—that cannot be answered by more broadly distributed networks or by individual field sites. We discuss our experiences leveraging natural areas throughout California at the Institute for the Study of Ecological and Evolutionary Climate Impacts. We then explore benefits and challenges of networking research at spatial scales congruent with regional patterns of climate variation and climate change, the challenges of sustained infrastructure and research support, and opportunities for future regional-scale research networks.
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Kimberly, David A., and Christopher J. Salice. "Evolutionary responses to climate change and contaminants: Evidence and experimental approaches." Current Zoology 61, no. 4 (August 1, 2015): 690–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/czoolo/61.4.690.
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Abstract A fundamental objective within ecotoxicology lies in understanding and predicting effects of contaminants. This objective is made more challenging when global climate change is considered as an environmental stress that co-occurs with contaminant exposure. In this multi-stressor context, evolutionary processes are particularly important. In this paper, we consider several non-”omic” approaches wherein evolutionary responses to stress have been studied and discuss those amenable to a multiple stressor context. Specifically, we discuss common-garden designs, artificial and quasi-natural selection, and the estimation of adaptive potential using quantitative genetics as methods for studying evolutionary responses to contaminants and climate change in the absence of expensive molecular tools. While all approaches shed light on potential evolutionary impacts of stressor exposure, they also have limitations. These include logistical constraints, difficulty extrapolating to real systems, and responses tied strongly to specific taxa, populations, and/or testing conditions. The most effective way to lessen these inherent limitations is likely through inclusion of complementary physiological and molecular tools, when available. We believe that an evolutionary context to the study of contaminants and global climate change is a high priority in ecotoxicology and we outline methods that can be implemented by almost any researcher but will also provide valuable insights.
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Grazer, Vera M., and Oliver Y. Martin. "Investigating Climate Change and Reproduction: Experimental Tools from Evolutionary Biology." Biology 1, no. 2 (September 13, 2012): 411–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology1020411.
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It is now generally acknowledged that climate change has wide-ranging biological consequences, potentially leading to impacts on biodiversity. Environmental factors can have diverse and often strong effects on reproduction, with obvious ramifications for population fitness. Nevertheless, reproductive traits are often neglected in conservation considerations. Focusing on animals, recent progress in sexual selection and sexual conflict research suggests that reproductive costs may pose an underestimated hurdle during rapid climate change, potentially lowering adaptive potential and increasing extinction risk of certain populations. Nevertheless, regime shifts may have both negative and positive effects on reproduction, so it is important to acquire detailed experimental data. We hence present an overview of the literature reporting short-term reproductive consequences of exposure to different environmental factors. From the enormous diversity of findings, we conclude that climate change research could benefit greatly from more coordinated efforts incorporating evolutionary approaches in order to obtain cross-comparable data on how individual and population reproductive fitness respond in the long term. Therefore, we propose ideas and methods concerning future efforts dealing with reproductive consequences of climate change, in particular by highlighting the advantages of multi-generational experimental evolution experiments.
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di Prisco, Guido, and Cinzia Verde. "Predicting the impacts of climate change on the evolutionary adaptations of polar fish." Reviews in Environmental Science and Bio/Technology 5, no. 2-3 (September 5, 2006): 309–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11157-006-9104-1.
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Rinkevich, Baruch. "Coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue mechanism to mitigate global climate change impacts." Global Change Biology 25, no. 4 (February 19, 2019): 1198–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14576.
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Morrison, Catriona A., Robert A. Robinson, and James W. Pearce-Higgins. "Winter wren populations show adaptation to local climate." Royal Society Open Science 3, no. 6 (June 2016): 160250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160250.
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Most studies of evolutionary responses to climate change have focused on phenological responses to warming, and provide only weak evidence for evolutionary adaptation. This could be because phenological changes are more weakly linked to fitness than more direct mechanisms of climate change impacts, such as selective mortality during extreme weather events which have immediate fitness consequences for the individuals involved. Studies examining these other mechanisms may be more likely to show evidence for evolutionary adaptation. To test this, we quantify regional population responses of a small resident passerine (winter wren Troglodytes troglodytes ) to a measure of winter severity (number of frost days). Annual population growth rate was consistently negatively correlated with this measure, but the point at which different populations achieved stability ( λ = 1) varied across regions and was closely correlated with the historic average number of frost days, providing strong evidence for local adaptation. Despite this, regional variation in abundance remained negatively related to the regional mean number of winter frost days, potentially as a result of a time-lag in the rate of evolutionary response to climate change. As expected from Bergmann's rule, individual wrens were heavier in colder regions, suggesting that local adaptation may be mediated through body size. However, there was no evidence for selective mortality of small individuals in cold years, with annual variation in mean body size uncorrelated with the number of winter frost days, so the extent to which local adaptation occurs through changes in body size, or another mechanism remains uncertain.
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Cronin, Thomas M., and Gary S. Dwyer. "Deep Sea Ostracodes and Climate Change." Paleontological Society Papers 9 (November 2003): 247–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1089332600002230.
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Ostracodes are bivalved Crustacea whose fossil shells constitute the most abundant and diverse metazoan group preserved in sediment cores from deep and intermediate ocean water depths. The ecology, zoogeography, and shell chemistry of many ostracode taxa makes them useful for paleoceanographic research on topics ranging from deep ocean circulation, bottom-water temperature, ecological response to global climate change and many others. However, the application of ostracodes to the study of climate change has been hampered by a number of factors, including the misconception that they are rare or absent in deep-sea sediments and the lack of taxonomic and zoogeographic data. In recent years studies from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans show that ostracodes are abundant enough for quantitative assemblage analysis and that the geochemistry of their shells can be a valuable tool for paleotemperature reconstruction. This paper presents practical guidelines for using ostracodes in investigations of climate-driven ocean variability and the ecological and evolutionary impacts of these changes.
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Burdon, Jeremy J., and Jiasui Zhan. "Climate change and disease in plant communities." PLOS Biology 18, no. 11 (November 24, 2020): e3000949. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000949.
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Climate change is triggering similar effects on the incidence and severity of disease for crops in agriculture and wild plants in natural communities. The complexity of natural ecosystems, however, generates a complex array of interactions between wild plants and pathogens in marked contrast to those generated in the structural and species simplicity of most agricultural crops. Understanding the different impacts of climate change on agricultural and natural ecosystems requires accounting for the specific interactions between an individual pathogen and its host(s) and their subsequent effects on the interplay between the host and other species in the community. Ultimately, progress will require looking past short-term fluctuations to multiyear trends to understand the nature and extent of plant and pathogen evolutionary adaptation and determine the fate of plants under future climate change.
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Horita, Junnosuke, Yoh Iwasa, and Yuuya Tachiki. "Eco-evolutionary dynamics may show an irreversible regime shift, illustrated by salmonids facing climate change." Theoretical Ecology 14, no. 2 (February 3, 2021): 345–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12080-021-00502-0.
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AbstractThe enhanced or reduced growth of juvenile masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou masou) may result from climate changes to their environment and thus impact on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of their life-history choices. Male juveniles with status, i.e., if their body size is larger than a threshold, stay in the stream and become resident males reproducing for multiple years, while those with smaller status, i.e., their body size is below the threshold, migrate to the ocean and return to the stream one year later to reproduce only once. Since juvenile growth is suppressed by the density of resident males, the fraction of resident males may stay in equilibrium or fluctuate wildly over a 2-year period. When the threshold value evolves, the convergence stable strategy may generate either an equilibrium or large fluctuations of male residents. If environmental changes occur faster than the rate of evolutionary adaptation, the eco-evolutionary dynamics exhibit a qualitative shift in the population dynamics. We also investigated the relative assessment models, in which individual life-history choices are made based on the individual’s relative status within the juvenile population. The eco-evolutionary dynamics are very different from the absolute assessment model, demonstrating the importance of understanding the mechanisms of life history choices when predicting the impacts of climate change.
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Pörtner, Hans O., and Julian Gutt. "Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on (Marine) Animals: Physiological Underpinnings and Evolutionary Consequences." Integrative and Comparative Biology 56, no. 1 (July 2016): 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icb/icw019.
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Kougioumoutzis, Konstantinos, Ioannis P. Kokkoris, Maria Panitsa, Panayiotis Trigas, Arne Strid, and Panayotis Dimopoulos. "Plant Diversity Patterns and Conservation Implications under Climate-Change Scenarios in the Mediterranean: The Case of Crete (Aegean, Greece)." Diversity 12, no. 7 (July 7, 2020): 270. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d12070270.
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Climate change poses a great challenge for biodiversity conservation. Several studies exist regarding climate change’s impacts on European plants, yet none has investigated how climate change will affect the extinction risk of the entire endemic flora of an island biodiversity hotspot, with intense human disturbance. Our aim is to assess climate change’s impacts on the biodiversity patterns of the endemic plants of Crete (S Aegean) and provide a case-study upon which a climate-smart conservation planning strategy might be set. We employed a variety of macroecological analyses and estimated the current and future biodiversity, conservation and extinction hotspots in Crete. We evaluated the effectiveness of climatic refugia and the Natura 2000 network of protected areas (PAs) for protecting the most vulnerable species and identified the taxa of conservation priority based on the Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) index. The results revealed that high altitude areas of Cretan mountains constitute biodiversity hotspots and areas of high conservation and evolutionary value. Due to the “escalator to extinction” phenomenon, these areas are projected to become diversity “death-zones” and should thus be prioritised. Conservation efforts should be targeted at areas with overlaps among PAs and climatic refugia, characterised by high diversity and EDGE scores. This conservation-prioritisation planning will allow the preservation of evolutionary heritage, trait diversity and future ecosystem services for human well-being and acts as a pilot for similar regions worldwide.
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Morrongiello, John R., Stephen J. Beatty, James C. Bennett, David A. Crook, David N. E. N. Ikedife, Mark J. Kennard, Adam Kerezsy, et al. "Climate change and its implications for Australia's freshwater fish." Marine and Freshwater Research 62, no. 9 (2011): 1082. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf10308.
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Freshwater environments and their fishes are particularly vulnerable to climate change because the persistence and quality of aquatic habitat depend heavily on climatic and hydrologic regimes. In Australia, projections indicate that the rate and magnitude of climate change will vary across the continent. We review the likely effects of these changes on Australian freshwater fishes across geographic regions encompassing a diversity of habitats and climatic variability. Commonalities in the predicted implications of climate change on fish included habitat loss and fragmentation, surpassing of physiological tolerances and spread of alien species. Existing anthropogenic stressors in more developed regions are likely to compound these impacts because of the already reduced resilience of fish assemblages. Many Australian freshwater fish species are adapted to variable or unpredictable flow conditions and, in some cases, this evolutionary history may confer resistance or resilience to the impacts of climate change. However, the rate and magnitude of projected change will outpace the adaptive capacities of many species. Climate change therefore seriously threatens the persistence of many of Australia’s freshwater fish species, especially of those with limited ranges or specific habitat requirements, or of those that are already occurring close to physiological tolerance limits. Human responses to climate change should be proactive and focus on maintaining population resilience through the protection of habitat, mitigation of current anthropogenic stressors, adequate planning and provisioning of environmental flows and the consideration of more interventionist options such as managed translocations.
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Ziska, Lewis H. "Climate Change and the Herbicide Paradigm: Visiting the Future." Agronomy 10, no. 12 (December 12, 2020): 1953. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10121953.
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Weeds are recognized globally as a major constraint to crop production and food security. In recent decades, that constraint has been minimized through the extensive use of herbicides in conjunction with genetically modified resistant crops. However, as is becoming evident, such a stratagem is resulting in evolutionary selection for widespread herbicide resistance and the need for a reformation of current practices regarding weed management. Whereas such a need is recognized within the traditional auspices of weed science, it is also imperative to include emerging evidence that rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and climatic shifts will impose additional selection pressures that will, in turn, affect herbicide efficacy. The goal of the current perspective is to provide historical context of herbicide use, outline the biological basis for CO2/climate impacts on weed biology, and address the need to integrate this information to provide a long-term sustainable paradigm for weed management.
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Schiffers, Katja, Elizabeth C. Bourne, Sébastien Lavergne, Wilfried Thuiller, and Justin M. J. Travis. "Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368, no. 1610 (January 19, 2013): 20120083. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0083.
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Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.
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Skougaard Kaspersen, Per, Nanna Høegh Ravn, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Henrik Madsen, and Martin Drews. "Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 8 (August 18, 2017): 4131–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4131-2017.
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Abstract. The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984–2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the stationary approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the evolutionary approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7–12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081–2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical trends in urban development and the projected regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Developing the capacity of the urban drainage system in relation to urban development is found to be an effective adaptation measure as it fully compensates for the increase in run-off caused by additional sealed surfaces. On the other hand, updating the drainage system according to changes in precipitation intensities caused by climate change only marginally reduces flooding for the most extreme events.
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Attard, Catherine R. M., Luciano B. Beheregaray, K. Curt S. Jenner, Peter C. Gill, Micheline-Nicole M. Jenner, Margaret G. Morrice, Peter R. Teske, and Luciana M. Möller. "Low genetic diversity in pygmy blue whales is due to climate-induced diversification rather than anthropogenic impacts." Biology Letters 11, no. 5 (May 2015): 20141037. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2014.1037.
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Unusually low genetic diversity can be a warning of an urgent need to mitigate causative anthropogenic activities. However, current low levels of genetic diversity in a population could also be due to natural historical events, including recent evolutionary divergence, or long-term persistence at a small population size. Here, we determine whether the relatively low genetic diversity of pygmy blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda ) in Australia is due to natural causes or overexploitation. We apply recently developed analytical approaches in the largest genetic dataset ever compiled to study blue whales (297 samples collected after whaling and representing lineages from Australia, Antarctica and Chile). We find that low levels of genetic diversity in Australia are due to a natural founder event from Antarctic blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus intermedia ) that occurred around the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by evolutionary divergence. Historical climate change has therefore driven the evolution of blue whales into genetically, phenotypically and behaviourally distinct lineages that will likely be influenced by future climate change.
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Lorenzoni, Irene, Andrew Jordan, Mike Hulme, R. Kerry Turner, and Tim O'Riordan. "A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios." Global Environmental Change 10, no. 1 (April 2000): 57–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0959-3780(00)00012-1.
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CECCARELLI, S., S. GRANDO, M. MAATOUGUI, M. MICHAEL, M. SLASH, R. HAGHPARAST, M. RAHMANIAN, et al. "Plant breeding and climate changes." Journal of Agricultural Science 148, no. 6 (August 16, 2010): 627–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021859610000651.
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SUMMARYClimate change is now unequivocal, particularly in terms of increasing temperature, increasing CO2 concentration, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level, while the increase in the frequency of drought is very probable but not as certain.However, climate changes are not new and some of them have had dramatic impacts, such as the appearance of leaves about 400 million years ago as a response to a drastic decrease in CO2 concentration, the birth of agriculture due to the end of the last ice age about 11 000 years ago and the collapse of civilizations due to the late Holocene droughts between 5000 and 1000 years ago.The climate changes that are occurring at present will have – and are already having – an adverse effect on food production and food quality with the poorest farmers and the poorest countries most at risk. The adverse effect is a consequence of the expected or probable increased frequency of some abiotic stresses such as heat and drought, and of the increased frequency of biotic stresses (pests and diseases). In addition, climate change is also expected to cause losses of biodiversity, mainly in more marginal environments.Plant breeding has addressed both abiotic and biotic stresses. Strategies of adaptation to climate changes may include a more accurate matching of phenology to moisture availability using photoperiod-temperature response, increased access to a suite of varieties with different duration to escape or avoid predictable occurrences of stress at critical periods in crop life cycles, improved water use efficiency and a re-emphasis on population breeding in the form of evolutionary participatory plant breeding to provide a buffer against increasing unpredictability. ICARDA, in collaboration with scientists in Iran, Algeria, Jordan, Eritrea and Morocco, has recently started evolutionary participatory programmes for barley and durum wheat. These measures will go hand in hand with breeding for resistance to biotic stresses and with an efficient system of variety delivery to farmers.
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Bede-Fazekas, Ákos. "Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line." Journal of Environmental Geography 6, no. 1-2 (April 1, 2013): 21–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10326-012-0003-3.
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Abstract Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) using 36 parameters of REMO regional climate dataset, ArcGIS geographic information software, and periods of 1961-1990 (reference period), 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. The disadvantages of this relatively simple climate envelope modeling (CEM) approach are then discussed and several ways of model improvement are suggested. Some statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression, cluster analysis and other clustering methods, decision tree, evolutionary algorithm, artificial neural network) are able to provide development of the model. Among them artificial neural networks (ANN) seems to be the most suitable algorithm for this purpose, which provides a black box method for distribution modeling.
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Bay, Rachael A., Ryan J. Harrigan, Vinh Le Underwood, H. Lisle Gibbs, Thomas B. Smith, and Kristen Ruegg. "Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird." Science 359, no. 6371 (January 4, 2018): 83–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aan4380.
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The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species’ responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts.
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Ellis, Christopher J. "A risk-based model of climate change threat: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in the ecology of lichen epiphytes." Botany 91, no. 1 (January 2013): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjb-2012-0171.
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This review positions the biodiversity response to climate change within a social-sciences risk-based framework, integrating the parameters of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It uses lichen epiphytes as a case study. In treating human-induced climate change as a hazard, the exposure of lichen epiphytes is considered as their sensitivity to spatial climatic variation, while also seeking congruence between bioclimatic models and observational data supporting distributional change. Improved understanding of exposure could be generated through functional response models, and climate sensitivity should be carefully interpreted against co-occurring hazards (pollution, habitat degradation). Where negative impacts result from exposure to climate change, species vulnerability may be reduced through adaptive forest management. This opportunity is based on a cross-scale interaction between microhabitat specificity and macroclimatic setting. Certain stand types (e.g., old-growth stands) offer greater opportunity for establishment and growth in suboptimal climates, because high microhabitat heterogeneity generates a broader spectrum of microclimatic niches, which buffer an unsuitable macroclimate. Lichen epiphyte vulnerability will nevertheless be dependent on an amalgam of ecological processes considered at the stand scale, including trophic interactions, acclimation, and evolutionary adaptation, and at the landscape scale, including gene flow and dispersal limitation. A trait-focused approach could provide an opportunity to generalize these processes.
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Janion-Scheepers, Charlene, Laura Phillips, Carla M. Sgrò, Grant A. Duffy, Rebecca Hallas, and Steven L. Chown. "Basal resistance enhances warming tolerance of alien over indigenous species across latitude." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 1 (December 18, 2017): 145–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1715598115.
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Soil systems are being increasingly exposed to the interactive effects of biological invasions and climate change, with rising temperatures expected to benefit alien over indigenous species. We assessed this expectation for an important soil-dwelling group, the springtails, by determining whether alien species show broader thermal tolerance limits and greater tolerance to climate warming than their indigenous counterparts. We found that, from the tropics to the sub-Antarctic, alien species have the broadest thermal tolerances and greatest tolerance to environmental warming. Both groups of species show little phenotypic plasticity or potential for evolutionary change in tolerance to high temperature. These trait differences between alien and indigenous species suggest that biological invasions will exacerbate the impacts of climate change on soil systems, with profound implications for terrestrial ecosystem functioning.
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Al‐Hajaj, Nawal, and Omar Kafawin. "CONCEPT AND RATIONALE OF EVOLUTIONARY BARLEY BREEDING UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN JORDAN." International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH 9, no. 8 (August 31, 2021): 150–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v9.i8.2021.4122.
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In this study, we reviewed the climate changing and the impact on crop production, and evolutionary breeding as adaptation key to crop resilience. The increasing climate change impact on the agriculture system has renewed interest to the broadest possible germplasm base for a resilient and sustainable food system. Heterogeneous populations developed through evolutionary plant breeding could be the ideal solution to reduce the effects of environment variability on cereal crop planted under low-input conditions.The study assessed the genetic basis of adaptation of a barley population which evolved in different rainfed locations and years in Jordan without any human selection as suggests model of plant breeding strategy to improve food security, nutrition, income and resilience of smallholder farmers in the dryland regions in the climate change scenarios. The study suggests that the breeder can shift the undesirable traits in evolutionary populations by practicing individual selection for specific adaptations, or individual selection from populations showing wide adaptations and high stability. On the other hand, the breeder can overcome the undesirable traits by keeping the highest variations within the population by seed sieving to remove small seed and plant mowing for tallest head.
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Egizi, Andrea, Nina H. Fefferman, and Dina M. Fonseca. "Evidence that implicit assumptions of ‘no evolution’ of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 370, no. 1665 (April 5, 2015): 20140136. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0136.
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Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics.
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Rowan, John, Lydia Beaudrot, Janet Franklin, Kaye E. Reed, Irene E. Smail, Andrew Zamora, and Jason M. Kamilar. "Geographically divergent evolutionary and ecological legacies shape mammal biodiversity in the global tropics and subtropics." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 3 (December 16, 2019): 1559–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910489116.
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Studies of the factors governing global patterns of biodiversity are key to predicting community responses to ongoing and future abiotic and biotic changes. Although most research has focused on present-day climate, a growing body of evidence indicates that modern ecological communities may be significantly shaped by paleoclimatic change and past anthropogenic factors. However, the generality of this pattern is unknown, as global analyses are lacking. Here we quantify the phylogenetic and functional trait structure of 515 tropical and subtropical large mammal communities and predict their structure from past and present climatic and anthropogenic factors. We find that the effects of Quaternary paleoclimatic change are strongest in the Afrotropics, with communities in the Indomalayan realm showing mixed effects of modern climate and paleoclimate. Malagasy communities are poorly predicted by any single factor, likely due to the atypical history of the island compared with continental regions. Neotropical communities are mainly codetermined by modern climate and prehistoric and historical human impacts. Overall, our results indicate that the factors governing tropical and subtropical mammalian biodiversity are complex, with the importance of past and present factors varying based on the divergent histories of the world’s biogeographic realms and their native biotas. Consideration of the evolutionary and ecological legacies of both the recent and ancient past are key to understanding the forces shaping global patterns of present-day biodiversity and its response to ongoing and future abiotic and biotic changes in the 21st century.
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Kougioumoutzis, Konstantinos, Ioannis P. Kokkoris, Maria Panitsa, Panayiotis Trigas, Arne Strid, and Panayotis Dimopoulos. "Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios." Biology 9, no. 8 (July 31, 2020): 199. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9080199.
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Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete’s plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete’s unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the ‘Anthropocene’ era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.
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Stroud, James T., Caitlin C. Mothes, Winter Beckles, Robert J. P. Heathcote, Colin M. Donihue, and Jonathan B. Losos. "An extreme cold event leads to community-wide convergence in lower temperature tolerance in a lizard community." Biology Letters 16, no. 10 (October 2020): 20200625. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0625.
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Extreme climate events are predicted to increase in frequency and severity due to contemporary climate change. Recent studies have documented the evolutionary impacts of extreme events on single species, but no studies have yet investigated whether such events can drive community-wide patterns of trait shifts. On 22 January 2020, subtropical south Florida experienced an extreme cold episode during which air temperatures dropped below the lower thermal limit of resident lizard populations. In the week immediately after the cold event, we documented decreased lower thermal limits (CT min ) of six co-occurring lizard species that vary widely in ecology, body size and thermal physiology. Although cold tolerance of these species differed significantly before the cold snap, lizards sampled immediately after had converged on the same new, lower limit of thermal tolerance. Here, we demonstrate that extreme climate events can drive substantial and synchronous community-wide trait changes and provide evidence that tropical and subtropical ectotherms—often characterized as unable to withstand rapid changes in climatic conditions—can endure climatic conditions that exceed their physiological limits. Future studies investigating the mechanisms driving these trait shifts will prove valuable in understanding the ability of ectotherm communities to mitigate climate change.
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Huang, Danwei, and Kaustuv Roy. "The future of evolutionary diversity in reef corals." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 370, no. 1662 (February 19, 2015): 20140010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0010.
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One-third of the world's reef-building corals are facing heightened extinction risk from climate change and other anthropogenic impacts. Previous studies have shown that such threats are not distributed randomly across the coral tree of life, and future extinctions have the potential to disproportionately reduce the phylogenetic diversity of this group on a global scale. However, the impact of such losses on a regional scale remains poorly known. In this study, we use phylogenetic metrics in conjunction with geographical distributions of living reef coral species to model how extinctions are likely to affect evolutionary diversity across different ecoregions. Based on two measures—phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic species variability—we highlight regions with the largest losses of evolutionary diversity and hence of potential conservation interest. Notably, the projected loss of evolutionary diversity is relatively low in the most species-rich areas such as the Coral Triangle, while many regions with fewer species stand to lose much larger shares of their diversity. We also suggest that for complex ecosystems like coral reefs it is important to consider changes in phylogenetic species variability; areas with disproportionate declines in this measure should be of concern even if phylogenetic diversity is not as impacted. These findings underscore the importance of integrating evolutionary history into conservation planning for safeguarding the future diversity of coral reefs.
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Alroy, John, Paul L. Koch, and James C. Zachos. "Global climate change and North American mammalian evolution." Paleobiology 26, S4 (2000): 259–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300026968.
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We compare refined data sets for Atlantic benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios and for North American mammalian diversity, faunal turnover, and body mass distributions. Each data set spans the late Paleocene through Pleistocene and has temporal resolution of 1.0 m.y.; the mammal data are restricted to western North America. We use the isotope data to compute five separate time series: oxygen isotope ratios at the midpoint of each 1.0-m.y. bin; changes in these ratios across bins; absolute values of these changes (= isotopic volatility); standard deviations of multiple isotope measurements within each bin; and standard deviations that have been detrended and corrected for serial correlation. For the mammals, we compute 12 different variables: standing diversity at the start of each bin; per-lineage origination and extinction rates; total turnover; net diversification; the absolute value of net diversification (= diversification volatility); change in proportional representation of major orders, as measured by a simple index and by a G-statistic; and the mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of body mass. Simple and liberal statistical analyses fail to show any consistent relationship between any two isotope and mammalian time series, other than some unavoidable correlations between a few untransformed, highly autocorrelated time series like the raw isotope and mean body mass curves. Standard methods of detrending and differencing remove these correlations. Some of the major climate shifts indicated by oxygen isotope records do correspond to major ecological and evolutionary transitions in the mammalian biota, but the nature of these correspondences is unpredictable, and several other such transitions occur at times of relatively little global climate change. We conclude that given currently available climate records, we cannot show that the impact of climate change on the broad patterns of mammalian evolution involves linear forcings; instead, we see only the relatively unpredictable effects of a few major events. Over the scale of the whole Cenozoic, intrinsic, biotic factors like logistic diversity dynamics and within-lineage evolutionary trends seem to be far more important.
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Burbidge, Andrew A., Margaret Byrne, David Coates, Stephen T. Garnett, Stephen Harris, Matt W. Hatward, Tara G. Martin, et al. "Is Australia ready for assisted colonization? Policy changes required to facilitate translocations under climate change." Pacific Conservation Biology 17, no. 3 (2011): 259. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/pc110259.
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Assisted Colonization (AC) has been proposed as one method of aiding species to adapt to the impacts of climate change. AC is a form of translocation and translocation protocols for threatened species, mostly for reintroduction, are well established in Australia. We evaluate the information available from implementation of translocations to understand how existing policies and guidelines should be varied to plan, review and regulate AC. While the risks associated with AC are potentially greater than those of reintroductions, AC is likely to be the only available method, other than germplasm storage and establishment of captive populations, of conserving many taxa under future climate change. AC may also be necessary to maintain ecosystem services, particularly where keystone species are affected. Current policies and procedures for the preparation of Translocation Proposals will require modification and expansion to deal with Assisted Colonization, particularly in relation to risk management, genetic management, success criteria, moving associated species and community consultation. Further development of risk assessment processes, particularly for invasiveness, and guidelines for genetic management to maintain evolutionary potential are particularly important in the context of changing climate. Success criteria will need to respond to population establishment in the context of new and evolving ecosystems, and to reflect requirements for any co-establishment of interdependent species. Translocation Proposals should always be subjected to independent peer review before being considered by regulators. We conclude that consistent approaches by regulators and multilateral agreements between jurisdictions are required to minimize duplication, to ensure the risk of AC is adequately assessed and to ensure the potential benefits of AC are realized.
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Gilder, Eric, and Dilip K. Pal. "Climate Change – Probable Socio-Economic Systems (SES) Implications And Impacts In The Anthropocene Epoch." International conference KNOWLEDGE-BASED ORGANIZATION 21, no. 2 (June 1, 2015): 308–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/kbo-2015-0052.
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Abstract It is vital for security experts to learn from the historical records of global climate change as to how the human society has been impacted by its consequences in the “new” Anthropocene Epoch. Some of these consequences of global climate change include the perishing of several human settlements in different parts of the globe at different times, e.g., in 1700 B.C., prolonged drought contributed to the demise of Harappan civilization in northwest India. In 1200 B.C., under a similar climatic extremity, the Mycenaean civilization in present-day Greece (as well as the Mill Creek culture of the northwestern part of the present-day US state of Iowa) perished. Why did some societies under such climatic events perish while others survived? Lack of preparedness of one society and its failure to anticipate and adapt to the extreme climatic events might have attributed to their extinction. The authors will also analyze the extinction of one European Norse society in Greenland during the Little Ice Age (about 600 years ago), as compared to the still-surviving Inuit society in the northern segment of Greenland, which faced even harsher climatic conditions during the Little Ice Age than the extinct Norsemen. This is how the adaptability and “expectation of the worst” matter for the survival of a particular community against climatic “black swan” events (Taleb, 2007). Similar impacts in terms of sea-level rise expected by the year 2100 whereby major human populations of many parts of the world are expected to lose their environmental evolutionary “niche” will be discussed. Rising temperature will not only complicate human health issues, but also will it take its toll on the staple food producing agricultural belts in some latitudinal expanse. It will also worsen the living condition of the populace living in areas where climate is marginal. Through the Socio-Economic Systems Model provided by Vadineanu (2001), the authors will next consider the effect of extant policy-making “prisms” responding to climate change (such as the “Club of Rome” versus the “Club for Growth” visions) as concerns the ongoing process of globalization and survival of the nation-state.
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Ummenhofer, Caroline C., and Gerald A. Meehl. "Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 372, no. 1723 (May 8, 2017): 20160135. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2016.0135.
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Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’.
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Gompert, Zachariah, and Lauren Lucas. "Spatio-temporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics in natural butterfly populations." UW National Parks Service Research Station Annual Reports 39 (December 15, 2016): 32–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.13001/uwnpsrc.2016.5275.
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Spatial and temporal variation in the strength and nature of natural selection could help explain genetic diversity in natural populations and data on short term evolutionary responses to fluctuations in temperature and rainfall could facilitate predictions of climate change impacts. In 2012, we began a long term study of genome-wide molecular evolution in populations of Lycaeides idas in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In 2016, we used distance sampling to estimate population densities of 10 butterfly populations spread across the GYE in Wyoming and Montana. In parallel, we estimated host plant cover and conducted insect community surveys at each site. We also completed a genotyping-by-sequencing survey for eight populations sampled in 2013 and 2015 to estimate contemporary variance in effective population sizes. Based on 480 samples across sites, we found significant variation in population sizes (as estimated by distance sampling) among sites and years. Host plant abundance, climate, and insect communities varied among sites but were not consistently predictive of population size. Estimates of effective population sizes among sites showed pronounced variation that was uncorrelated with genetic diversity, possibly due to widespread fluctuating selection.
Featured photo from Figure 1 in report.
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Visser, Marcel E., Samuel P. Caro, Kees van Oers, Sonja V. Schaper, and Barbara Helm. "Phenology, seasonal timing and circannual rhythms: towards a unified framework." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365, no. 1555 (October 12, 2010): 3113–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0111.
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Phenology refers to the periodic appearance of life-cycle events and currently receives abundant attention as the effects of global change on phenology are so apparent. Phenology as a discipline observes these events and relates their annual variation to variation in climate. But phenology is also studied in other disciplines, each with their own perspective. Evolutionary ecologists study variation in seasonal timing and its fitness consequences, whereas chronobiologists emphasize the periodic nature of life-cycle stages and their underlying timing programmes (e.g. circannual rhythms). The (neuro-) endocrine processes underlying these life-cycle events are studied by physiologists and need to be linked to genes that are explored by molecular geneticists. In order to fully understand variation in phenology, we need to integrate these different perspectives, in particular by combining evolutionary and mechanistic approaches. We use avian research to characterize different perspectives and to highlight integration that has already been achieved. Building on this work, we outline a route towards uniting the different disciplines in a single framework, which may be used to better understand and, more importantly, to forecast climate change impacts on phenology.
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Crean, Angela J., and Simone Immler. "Evolutionary consequences of environmental effects on gamete performance." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 376, no. 1826 (April 19, 2021): 20200122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0122.
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Variation in pre- and post-release gamete environments can influence evolutionary processes by altering fertilization outcomes and offspring traits. It is now widely accepted that offspring inherit epigenetic information from both their mothers and fathers. Genetic and epigenetic alterations to eggs and sperm-acquired post-release may also persist post-fertilization with consequences for offspring developmental success and later-life fitness. In externally fertilizing species, gametes are directly exposed to anthropogenically induced environmental impacts including pollution, ocean acidification and climate change. When fertilization occurs within the female reproductive tract, although gametes are at least partially protected from external environmental variation, the selective environment is likely to vary among females. In both scenarios, gamete traits and selection on gametes can be influenced by environmental conditions such as temperature and pollution as well as intrinsic factors such as male and female reproductive fluids, which may be altered by changes in male and female health and physiology. Here, we highlight some of the pathways through which changes in gamete environments can affect fertilization dynamics, gamete interactions and ultimately offspring fitness. We hope that by drawing attention to this important yet often overlooked source of variation, we will inspire future research into the evolutionary implications of anthropogenic interference of gamete environments including the use of assisted reproductive technologies. This article is part of the theme issue ‘How does epigenetics influence the course of evolution?’
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Clarke, Andrew, Nadine M. Johnston, Eugene J. Murphy, and Alex D. Rogers. "Introduction. Antarctic ecology from genes to ecosystems: the impact of climate change and the importance of scale." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 362, no. 1477 (November 30, 2006): 5–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2006.1943.
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Antarctica offers a unique natural laboratory for undertaking fundamental research on the relationship between climate, evolutionary processes and molecular adaptation. The fragmentation of Gondwana and the development of wide-scale glaciation have resulted in major episodes of extinction and vicariance, as well as driving adaptation to an extreme environment. On shorter time-scales, glacial cycles have resulted in shifts in distribution, range fragmentation and allopatric speciation, and the Antarctic Peninsula is currently experiencing among the most rapid climatic warming on the planet. The recent revolution in molecular techniques has provided a suite of innovative and powerful tools to explore the consequences of these changes, and these are now providing novel insights into evolutionary and ecological processes in Antarctica. In addition, the increasing use of remotely sensed data is providing a large-scale view of the system that allows these processes to be set in a wider spatial context. In these two volumes, we collect a wide range of papers exploring these themes, concentrating on recent advances and emphasizing the importance of spatial and temporal scale in understanding ecological and evolutionary processes in Antarctica.
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Rabelo-Costa, Taynara, Paulo Weslem Portal Gomes, Brenda Oliveira Rocha, Iury Leite Cruz, Ravena Santiago Alves, Tiê Rocha de Sousa Oliveira, José Luís Passos Cordeiro, Moabe Ferreira Fernandes, Eimear Nic Lughadha, and Marcelo Freire Moro. "The fate of Holoregmia, a monospecific genus endemic to the Brazilian Caatinga, under different future climate scenarios." Plant Ecology and Evolution 155, no. 2 (July 22, 2022): 261–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5091/plecevo.90511.
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Background and aims – Climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene altered the distribution of many species and even entire biomes, allowing some species to increase their range while others underwent reductions. Recent and ongoing anthropogenic climate change is altering climatic patterns very rapidly and is likely to impact species’ distributions over shorter timescales than previous natural fluctuations. Therefore, we aimed to understand how Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations might have shaped the current distribution of Holoregmia and explore its expected distribution under future climate scenarios. Material and methods – We modelled the potential distribution of Holoregmia viscida (Martyniaceae), a monospecific plant genus endemic to the semi-arid Caatinga Domain in Brazil. We used an ensemble approach to model suitable areas for Holoregmia under present conditions, Paleoclimatic scenarios, and global warming scenarios in 2050 and 2090. Key results – Holocene climates in most Caatinga were too humid for Holoregmia, which restricted its suitable areas to the southern Caatinga, similar to its current distribution. However, under global warming scenarios, the Caatinga is expected to become too dry for this lineage, resulting in a steady decline in the area suitable for Holoregmia and even its possible extinction under the most pessimistic scenario modelled. Conclusion – The predicted extinction of the ancient and highly specialized Holoregmia viscida highlights the possible consequences of climate change for some species of endemic Caatinga flora. Invaluable phylogenetic diversity may be lost in the coming decades, representing millions of years of unique evolutionary history and consequent loss of evolutionary potential to adapt to future environmental changes in semi-arid environments.
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Peijnenburg, Katja T. C. A., Arie W. Janssen, Deborah Wall-Palmer, Erica Goetze, Amy E. Maas, Jonathan A. Todd, and Ferdinand Marlétaz. "The origin and diversification of pteropods precede past perturbations in the Earth’s carbon cycle." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 41 (September 24, 2020): 25609–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920918117.
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Pteropods are a group of planktonic gastropods that are widely regarded as biological indicators for assessing the impacts of ocean acidification. Their aragonitic shells are highly sensitive to acute changes in ocean chemistry. However, to gain insight into their potential to adapt to current climate change, we need to accurately reconstruct their evolutionary history and assess their responses to past changes in the Earth’s carbon cycle. Here, we resolve the phylogeny and timing of pteropod evolution with a phylogenomic dataset (2,654 genes) incorporating new data for 21 pteropod species and revised fossil evidence. In agreement with traditional taxonomy, we recovered molecular support for a division between “sea butterflies” (Thecosomata; mucus-web feeders) and “sea angels” (Gymnosomata; active predators). Molecular dating demonstrated that these two lineages diverged in the early Cretaceous, and that all main pteropod clades, including shelled, partially-shelled, and unshelled groups, diverged in the mid- to late Cretaceous. Hence, these clades originated prior to and subsequently survived major global change events, including the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the closest analog to modern-day ocean acidification and warming. Our findings indicate that planktonic aragonitic calcifiers have shown resilience to perturbations in the Earth’s carbon cycle over evolutionary timescales.
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Hoyal Cuthill, Jennifer F., Kim B. Sewell, Lester R. G. Cannon, Michael A. Charleston, Susan Lawler, D. Timothy J. Littlewood, Peter D. Olson, and David Blair. "Australian spiny mountain crayfish and their temnocephalan ectosymbionts: an ancient association on the edge of coextinction?" Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 283, no. 1831 (May 25, 2016): 20160585. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.0585.
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Australian spiny mountain crayfish ( Euastacu s, Parastacidae) and their ecotosymbiotic temnocephalan flatworms (Temnocephalida, Platyhelminthes) may have co-occurred and interacted through deep time, during a period of major environmental change. Therefore, reconstructing the history of their association is of evolutionary, ecological, and conservation significance. Here, time-calibrated Bayesian phylogenies of Euastacus species and their temnocephalans ( Temnohaswellia and Temnosewellia ) indicate near-synchronous diversifications from the Cretaceous. Statistically significant cophylogeny correlations between associated clades suggest linked evolutionary histories. However, there is a stronger signal of codivergence and greater host specificity in Temnosewellia , which co-occurs with Euastacus across its range. Phylogeography and analyses of evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) suggest that regional differences in the impact of climate warming and drying had major effects both on crayfish and associated temnocephalans. In particular, Euastacus and Temnosewellia show strong latitudinal gradients in ED and, conversely, in geographical range size, with the most distinctive, northern lineages facing the greatest risk of extinction. Therefore, environmental change has, in some cases, strengthened ecological and evolutionary associations, leaving host-specific temnocephalans vulnerable to coextinction with endangered hosts. Consequently, the extinction of all Euastacus species currently endangered (75%) predicts coextinction of approximately 60% of the studied temnocephalans, with greatest loss of the most evolutionarily distinctive lineages.
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Stenlid, Jan, and Jonàs Oliva. "Phenotypic interactions between tree hosts and invasive forest pathogens in the light of globalization and climate change." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 371, no. 1709 (December 5, 2016): 20150455. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0455.
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Invasive pathogens can cause considerable damage to forest ecosystems. Lack of coevolution is generally thought to enable invasive pathogens to bypass the defence and/or recognition systems in the host. Although mostly true, this argument fails to predict intermittent outcomes in space and time, underlining the need to include the roles of the environment and the phenotype in host–pathogen interactions when predicting disease impacts. We emphasize the need to consider host–tree imbalances from a phenotypic perspective, considering the lack of coevolutionary and evolutionary history with the pathogen and the environment, respectively. We describe how phenotypic plasticity and plastic responses to environmental shifts may become maladaptive when hosts are faced with novel pathogens. The lack of host–pathogen and environmental coevolution are aligned with two global processes currently driving forest damage: globalization and climate change, respectively. We suggest that globalization and climate change act synergistically, increasing the chances of both genotypic and phenotypic imbalances. Short moves on the same continent are more likely to be in balance than if the move is from another part of the world. We use Gremmeniella abietina outbreaks in Sweden to exemplify how host–pathogen phenotypic interactions can help to predict the impacts of specific invasive and emergent diseases. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’.
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Morris, William F., Johan Ehrlén, Johan P. Dahlgren, Alexander K. Loomis, and Allison M. Louthan. "Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 2 (December 30, 2019): 1107–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1918363117.
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Multiple, simultaneous environmental changes, in climatic/abiotic factors, interacting species, and direct human influences, are impacting natural populations and thus biodiversity, ecosystem services, and evolutionary trajectories. Determining whether the magnitudes of the population impacts of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic drivers differ, accounting for their direct effects and effects mediated through other drivers, would allow us to better predict population fates and design mitigation strategies. We compiled 644 paired values of the population growth rate (λ) from high and low levels of an identified driver from demographic studies of terrestrial plants. Among abiotic drivers, natural disturbance (not climate), and among biotic drivers, interactions with neighboring plants had the strongest effects on λ. However, when drivers were combined into the 3 main types, their average effects on λ did not differ. For the subset of studies that measured both the average and variability of the driver, λ was marginally more sensitive to 1 SD of change in abiotic drivers relative to biotic drivers, but sensitivity to biotic drivers was still substantial. Similar impact magnitudes for abiotic/biotic/anthropogenic drivers hold for plants of different growth forms, for different latitudinal zones, and for biomes characterized by harsher or milder abiotic conditions, suggesting that all 3 drivers have equivalent impacts across a variety of contexts. Thus, the best available information about the integrated effects of drivers on all demographic rates provides no justification for ignoring drivers of any of these 3 types when projecting ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and of biodiversity to environmental changes.
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Velasco, Dianne, Josh Hough, Mallikarjuna Aradhya, and Jeffrey Ross-Ibarra. "Evolutionary Genomics of Peach and Almond Domestication." G3 Genes|Genomes|Genetics 6, no. 12 (December 1, 2016): 3985–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1534/g3.116.032672.
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Abstract The domesticated almond [Prunus dulcis (L.) Batsch] and peach [P. persica (Mill.) D. A. Webb] originated on opposite sides of Asia and were independently domesticated ∼5000 yr ago. While interfertile, they possess alternate mating systems and differ in a number of morphological and physiological traits. Here, we evaluated patterns of genome-wide diversity in both almond and peach to better understand the impacts of mating system, adaptation, and domestication on the evolution of these taxa. Almond has around seven times the genetic diversity of peach, and high genome-wide FST values support their status as separate species. We estimated a divergence time of ∼8 MYA (million years ago), coinciding with an active period of uplift in the northeast Tibetan Plateau and subsequent Asian climate change. We see no evidence of a bottleneck during domestication of either species, but identify a number of regions showing signatures of selection during domestication and a significant overlap in candidate regions between peach and almond. While we expected gene expression in fruit to overlap with candidate selected regions, instead we find enrichment for loci highly differentiated between the species, consistent with recent fossil evidence suggesting fruit divergence long preceded domestication. Taken together, this study tells us how closely related tree species evolve and are domesticated, the impact of these events on their genomes, and the utility of genomic information for long-lived species. Further exploration of this data will contribute to the genetic knowledge of these species and provide information regarding targets of selection for breeding application, and further the understanding of evolution in these species.
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Li, Shuaishuai, Jiahua Zhang, Sha Zhang, Yun Bai, Dan Cao, Tiantian Cheng, Zhongtai Sun, Qi Liu, and Til Prasad Pangali Sharma. "Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China." Sustainability 13, no. 6 (March 10, 2021): 3049. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13063049.
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Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to future climate changes would substantially contribute to the scientific assessment of vegetation–climate interactions. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of vegetation in China were projected and compared based on comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, and five sensitivity levels were proposed. The results show that the CSCS model performs well in simulating vegetation distribution. The number of vegetation types would increase from 36 to 40. Frigid–perhumid rain tundra and alpine meadow are the most distributed vegetation types, with an area of more than 78.45 × 104 km2, whereas there are no climate conditions suitable for tropical–extra-arid tropical desert in China. Some plants would benefit from climate changes to a certain extent. Warm temperate–arid warm temperate zone semidesert would expand by more than 1.82% by the 2080s. A continuous expansion of more than 18.81 × 104 km2 and northward shift of more than 124.93 km in tropical forest would occur across all three scenarios. However, some ecosystems would experience inevitable changes. More than 1.33% of cool temperate–extra-arid temperate zone desert would continuously shrink. Five sensitivity levels present an interphase distribution. More extreme scenarios would result in wider ecosystem responses. The evolutionary trend from cold–arid vegetation to warm–wet vegetation is a prominent feature despite the variability in ecosystem responses to climate changes.
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Sork, Victoria L., Paul F. Gugger, Jin-Ming Chen, and Silke Werth. "Evolutionary lessons from California plant phylogeography." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 29 (July 18, 2016): 8064–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1602675113.
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Phylogeography documents the spatial distribution of genetic lineages that result from demographic processes, such as population expansion, population contraction, and gene movement, shaped by climate fluctuations and the physical landscape. Because most phylogeographic studies have used neutral markers, the role of selection may have been undervalued. In this paper, we contend that plants provide a useful evolutionary lesson about the impact of selection on spatial patterns of neutral genetic variation, when the environment affects which individuals can colonize new sites, and on adaptive genetic variation, when environmental heterogeneity creates divergence at specific loci underlying local adaptation. Specifically, we discuss five characteristics found in plants that intensify the impact of selection: sessile growth form, high reproductive output, leptokurtic dispersal, isolation by environment, and the potential to evolve longevity. Collectively, these traits exacerbate the impact of environment on movement between populations and local selection pressures—both of which influence phylogeographic structure. We illustrate how these unique traits shape these processes with case studies of the California endemic oak, Quercus lobata, and the western North American lichen, Ramalina menziesii. Obviously, the lessons we learn from plant traits are not unique to plants, but they highlight the need for future animal, plant, and microbe studies to incorporate its impact. Modern tools that generate genome-wide sequence data are now allowing us to decipher how evolutionary processes affect the spatial distribution of different kinds of genes and also to better model future spatial distribution of species in response to climate change.
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Zheng, Mingguo. "A line-integral-based method to partition climate and catchment effects on runoff." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 5 (May 11, 2020): 2365–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2365-2020.
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Abstract. It is a common task to partition the synergistic impacts of drivers in the environmental sciences. However, there is no mathematically precise solution to this partition task. Here I present a line-integral-based method, which addresses the sensitivity to the drivers throughout the drivers' evolutionary paths so as to ensure a precise partition. The method reveals that the partition depends on both the change magnitude and pathway (timing of the change) but not on the magnitude alone unless used for a linear system. To illustrate this method, I applied the Budyko framework to partition the effects of climatic and catchment conditions on the temporal change in the runoff for 19 catchments from Australia and China. The proposed method reduces to the decomposition method when assuming a path in which climate change occurs first, followed by an abrupt change in catchment properties. The proposed method re-defines the widely used sensitivity at a point as the path-averaged sensitivity. The total-differential and the complementary methods simply concern the sensitivity at the initial and/or the terminal state, so they cannot give precise results. Although the path-averaged sensitivities varied greatly among the catchments, they can be readily predicted within the Budyko framework. As a mathematically accurate solution, the proposed method provides a generic tool for conducting quantitative attribution analyses.
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Whitehouse, John F. "East Australian Rain-forests: A Case-study in Resource Harvesting and Conservation." Environmental Conservation 18, no. 1 (1991): 33–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892900021263.
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Human interactions with rain-forest on the Australian continent have played, and will continue to play, a vital role in their distribution and survival. The presence and significance of rain-forest in Australia lies in the evolutionary history of the Australian plate since the break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent. Its continued survival and distribution illustrates and encapsulates the history of plant evolution and biogeography in Australia.Since human arrival in Australia at least 40,000 years ago, human interactions with rain-forest have been marked by a number of phases — ranging from Aboriginal use of rain-forest resources to the impetus given by the hunt for the prized Red Cedar, and from the early European settlement on the east coast of Australia in the midto late-19th century to the wholesale clearing of rain forests for agricultural settlement and dairying in the late 19th century. In more modern times, human interactions with rain-forest have focused on adapting forest management techniques to rain-forest logging, restructuring the native forest timber industry in the face of mechanization, changing markets and resource constraints, convulsions as a result of conservationist challenges in Terania Creek and Daintree, and finally the implications of conserving rain-forests in the context of natural processes including fire, climate change, and the impact of human visitors and their recreation.The course of the controversies over rain-forest conservation in Australia has meant that rain-forest logging either has been dramatically curtailed or is in the process of generally ceasing. The protection of rainforests from logging and forestry operations in the future seems secure, given the widespread community support for rain-forest conservation. Threats to rain-forest conservation in the future are likely to be found in more subtle processes: the impact of fire regimes on the spread and contractions of rain-forests, the impacts of exotic species such as Lantana (Lantana camara) and Camphor Laurel (Cinnamomum camphora), the impacts of human uses through tourism and recreation, the diminution of the viability of isolated pockets by ‘edge effects’, and the damage to the remaining stands on freehold property by conflicting land-uses.Overlying all of these potential threats is the impact of global climate change. Climate change since the Tertiary has reduced the once widespread rain-forest communities of Australia practically to the status of relicts in refugia. Will the remaining rain-forests be able to withstand the projected human-induced climate changes of the future?
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Zhou, Yongkang, Xiaoyao Zhang, Hu Yu, Qingqing Liu, and Linlin Xu. "Land Use-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Service Values and Simulation of Future Scenarios: A Case Study of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau." Sustainability 13, no. 7 (April 6, 2021): 4079. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13074079.
Full textAbstract:
Global climate change and land use change arising from human activities affect the ecosystem service values (ESVs). Such impacts have increasingly become significant, especially in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). Major factors impeding the construction of China’s “ecological security barrier” are shifts in land-use patterns under rapid urbanization, irrational crop and animal husbandry activities, and tourism. In the present study, land use changes in the QTP in recent years were analyzed to determine their impacts on ESVs, followed by simulations of the interactive and evolutionary relationships between land use and ESVs under two scenarios: natural development scenarios and ecological protection scenarios. According to the results, the QTP land-use structure has a small change, and the main land use type is alpine grassland, followed by bare land and woodland. The stability of the major land use types is the key factor responsible for the overall increasing ESV trend. Different regions on the QTP had substantially varied ESVs. The northwest and southeast regions are mostly bare land, which is a concentrated area of low value of ecosystem services. A variety of land use types including grassland and woodland have been found in the humid and semi-humid areas of the central region, so the high value of ecosystem services is concentrated in this area to form a hot spot, with a Z value of 0.63–2.84. Simulations under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios revealed that land use changes guided by ecological policies were more balanced and the associated ESVs were relatively higher than those under the natural development scenario. Under a global climate change context, human activities on the QTP should be better managed. Sustainable development in the region could be facilitated by ensuring synchronization between resource availability and adopted socioeconomic activities.