Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Evolutionary impacts of climate change'
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Braff, Pamela. "Evaluating The Impacts Of Land Use And Climate Change On The Hydrology Of Headwater Wetlands In The Coastal Plain Of Virginia." W&M ScholarWorks, 2020. https://scholarworks.wm.edu/etd/1593091561.
Full textRengs, Bernhard, Manuel Scholz-Wäckerle, Ardjan Gazheli, Miklós Antal, and den Bergh Jeroen van. "Testing innovation, employment and distributional impacts of climate policy packages in a macro-evolutionary systems setting." European Commission, bmwfw, 2015. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4721/1/WWWforEurope_WPS_no083_MS32.pdf.
Full textSeries: WWWforEurope
Pucko, Carolyn Ann. "The Impacts of Multiple Anthropogenic Disturbances on the Montane Forests of the Green Mountains, Vermont, USA." ScholarWorks @ UVM, 2014. http://scholarworks.uvm.edu/graddis/315.
Full textPhelps, Charlie. "Predicting the impact of future climate on ecologically important macroalgae." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2016. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1785.
Full textMiller, Courtney A. "Understanding the impacts of current and future environmental variation on central African amphibian biodiversity." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2018. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/2542.
Full textCoristine, Laura Elizabeth. "Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/35245.
Full textHogarth, James Ryan. "The evolutionary economic geography of climate change." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4b415617-4b0c-4c5a-98d7-4a1c765bb69f.
Full textD’Agui, Haylee Marie. "Evolutionary Adaptations to Climate Change in Australian Flora." Thesis, Curtin University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/57124.
Full textLawrence, Peter. "Climate impacts of Australian land cover change /." [St. Lucia, Qld.], 2004. http://www.library.uq.edu.au/pdfserve.php?image=thesisabs/absthe18055.pdf.
Full textSlagle, John T. "Climate change in Myanmar: impacts and adaptation." Thesis, Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/44672.
Full textMyanmar is a Least Developed Nation, according to the UN, and therefore is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of a changing climate. To assess the relationship between Myanmar and climate change, this thesis analyzes projected impacts on the nation and its people, the current state of adaptation, and how Myanmar’s government has prepared. Projected impacts are viewed through the lens of the most recent IPCC reports and climate models, and discussed in relation to vulnerable areas in Burmese society and governance. This thesis concludes that Myanmar’s environment, people and society are at a significant risk; higher temperatures, altered precipitation rates, and higher sea levels will lead to reduced agriculture output, the spread of disease, and loss of habitable land. Though recent governmental action has laid the framework for suitable adaptation measures, slow progress in past decades has left Myanmar highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Myanmar’s next election is scheduled for 2015, and the emerging leaders have the opportunity to make significant progress in climate change adaptation. Cooperation between Myanmar’s new leaders and the international community could accelerate the nation’s adaptation efforts and result in significant progress on climate change preparedness projects.
Nawaz, Najmur Rizwan. "Climate change water resources impacts and uncertainties." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/1123.
Full textAl-Azerji, Sherien Fadhel Weshah. "Climate change impacts on urban drainage systems." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2017. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.730842.
Full textLau, Hoppa. "Impacts of climate variability and climate change on prairie wheat yield." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ58810.pdf.
Full textSmid, Marek. "Climate change and impacts in the urban systems." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Jaume I, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/666679.
Full textUrban systems are not only major drivers of climate change, but also impact hotspots. The processes of global warming and urban population growth make our urban agglomerations vulnerable to chain reactions triggered by climate related hazards. Hence, the reliable and cost-effective assessment of future climate impact is of high importance. Two major approaches emerge from the literature: i) detailed spatially explicit assessments, and ii) more holistic approaches consistently assessing multiple cities. In this multidisciplinary thesis both approaches were addressed. Firstly, we discuss the underlying reasons and main challenges of the applicability of downscaling procedures of climate projections in the process of urban planning. While the climate community has invested significant effort to provide downscaling techniques yielding localised information on future climate extreme events, these methods are not widely exploited in the process of urban planning. The first part of this research attempts to help bridge the gap between the communities of urban planners and climatologists. First, we summarize the rationale for such cooperation, supporting the argument that the spatial scale represents an important linkage between urban and climate science in the process of designing an urban space. Secondly, we introduce the main families of downscaling techniques and their application on climate projections, also providing the references to profound studies in the field. Thirdly, special attention is given to previous works focused on the utilization of downscaled ensembles of climate simulations in urban agglomerations. Finally, we identify three major challenges of the wider utilization of climate projections and downscaling techniques, namely: (i) the scale mismatch between data needs and data availability, (ii) the terminology, and (iii) the IT bottleneck. The practical implications of these issues are discussed in the context of urban studies. The second part of this work is devoted to the assessment of impacts of extreme temperatures across the European capital cities. In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and socio-economic variables as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that all the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. Cold waves will represent some threat in mid of the century, but they are projected to completely vanish by the end of this century. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality. Such a simplistic but descriptive multi-risk urban indicator has two major uses. Firstly, it communicates the risk associated with climate change locally and in a simple way. By allowing to illustratively relate to situations of other capitals, it may help to engage not only scientists, but also the decision makers and general public, in efforts to combat climate change. Secondly, such an indicator can serve as a basis to decision making on European level, assisting with prioritizing the investments and other efforts in the adaptation strategy. Finally, this study transparently communicates the magnitude of future heat, and as such contributes to raise awareness about heat waves, since they are still often not perceived as a serious risk. Another contribution of this work to communication of consequences of changing climate is represented by the MetroHeat web tool, which provides an open data climate service for visualising and interacting with extreme temperature indices and heat wave indicators for European capitals. The target audience comprises climate impact researchers, intermediate organisations, societal-end users, and the general public.
Fox, Naomi J. "Predicting impacts of climate change on livestock parasites." Thesis, University of York, 2012. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/4757/.
Full textRutherford, William A., Thomas H. Painter, Scott Ferrenberg, Jayne Belnap, Gregory S. Okin, Cody Flagg, and Sasha C. Reed. "Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts." NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/623195.
Full textDriscoll, Simon. "Climate impacts of stratospheric particle injection." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5460c624-75d0-448e-b9a0-c1bc70cc9ad0.
Full textFüssel, Hans-Martin. "Impacts analysis for inverse integrated assessments of climate change." [S.l. : s.n.], 2004. http://pub.ub.uni-potsdam.de/2004/0008/fuessel.pdf.
Full textFüssel, Hans-Martin. "Impacts analysis for inverse integrated assessments of climate change." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2003. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2005/120/.
Full textDas 'Integrated Assessment' des Klimawandels umfasst eine weiten Bereich von Aktivitäten zur wissenschaftsbasierten Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen. Hierbei wird eine Vielzahl von Ansätzen verfolgt, um politikrelevante Informationen über die erwarteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu berücksichtigen. Wichtige Herausforderungen in diesem Bereich sind die große Bandbreite der relevanten räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen, die multifaktorielle Verursachung vieler 'Klimafolgen', erhebliche wissenschaftliche Unsicherheiten sowie die Mehrdeutigkeit unvermeidlicher Werturteile. Die Entwicklung eines hierarchischen Konzeptmodells erlaubt die Strukturierung der verschiedenen Ansätze sowie die Darstellung eines mehrstufigen Entwicklungsprozesses, der sich in der Praxis und der zu Grunde liegenden Theorie von Studien zur Vulnerabilität hinsichtlich des Klimawandels wiederspiegelt.
'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels sind wissenschaftliche Werkzeuge, welche eine vereinfachte Beschreibung des gekoppelten Mensch-Klima-Systems enthalten. Die wichtigsten entscheidungstheoretischen Ansätze im Bereich des modellbasierten 'Integrated Assessment' werden im Hinblick auf ihre Fähigkeit zur adäquaten Darstellung klimapolitischer Entscheidungsprobleme bewertet. Dabei stellt der 'Leitplankenansatz' eine 'inverse' Herangehensweise zur Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen dar, bei der versucht wird, die Gesamtheit der klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, die mit einer Reihe von zuvor normativ bestimmten Mindestkriterien (den sogenannten 'Leitplanken') verträglich sind. Dieser Ansatz verbindet bis zu einem gewissen Grad die wissenschaftliche Strenge und Objektivität simulationsbasierter Ansätze mit der Fähigkeit von Optimierungsansätzen, die Gesamtheit aller Entscheidungsoptionen zu berücksichtigen. Das ICLIPS-Modell ist das erste 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell des Klimawandels, welches den Leitplankenansatz implementiert.
Die Darstellung von Klimafolgen ist eine wichtige Herausforderung für 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels. Eine Betrachtung bestehender 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle offenbart große Unterschiede in der Berücksichtigung verschiedener vom Klimawandel betroffenen Sektoren, in der Wahl des bzw. der Indikatoren zur Darstellung von Klimafolgen, in der Berücksichtigung nicht-klimatischer Entwicklungen einschließlich gezielter Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel, in der Behandlung von Unsicherheiten und in der Berücksichtigung von 'singulären' Ereignissen. 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle, die auf einem Inversansatz beruhen, stellen besondere Anforderungen an die Darstellung von Klimafolgen. Einerseits muss der Detaillierungsgrad hinreichend sein, um Leitplanken für Klimafolgen sinnvoll definieren zu können; andererseits muss die Darstellung effizient genug sein, um die Gesamtheit der möglichen klimapolitischen Strategien erkunden zu können. Großräumige Singularitäten können häufig durch vereinfachte dynamische Modelle abgebildet werden. Diese Methode ist jedoch weniger geeignet für reguläre Klimafolgen, bei denen die Bestimmung relevanter Ergebnisse in der Regel die Berücksichtigung der Heterogenität von klimatischen, naturräumlichen und sozialen Faktoren auf der lokalen oder regionalen Ebene erfordert.
Klimawirkungsfunktionen stellen sich als die geeignetste Darstellung regulärer Klimafolgen im ICLIPS-Modell heraus. Eine Klimawirkungsfunktion beschreibt in aggregierter Form die Reaktion eines klimasensitiven Systems, wie sie von einem geographisch expliziten Klimawirkungsmodell für eine repräsentative Teilmenge möglicher zukünftiger Entwicklungen simuliert wurde. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Klimawirkungsfunktionen nutzen die globale Mitteltemperatur sowie die atmosphärische CO2-Konzentration als Prädiktoren für global und regional aggregierte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf natürliche Ökosysteme, die landwirtschaftliche Produktion und die Wasserverfügbarkeit. Die Anwendung einer 'Musterskalierungstechnik' ermöglicht hierbei die Berücksichtigung der regionalen und saisonalen Muster des Klimaänderungssignals aus allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodellen, ohne die Effizienz der dynamischen Modellkomponenten zu beeinträchtigen.
Bemühungen zur quantitativen Abschätzung zukünftiger Klimafolgen sehen sich bei der Wahl geeigneter Indikatoren in der Regel einem Zielkonflikt zwischen der Relevanz eines Indikators für Entscheidungsträger und der Zuverlässigkeit, mit der dieser bestimmt werden kann, gegenüber. Eine Reihe von nichtmonetären Indikatoren zur aggregierten Darstellung von Klimafolgen in Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird präsentiert, welche eine Balance zwischen diesen beiden Zielen anstreben und gleichzeitig die Beschränkungen berücksichtigen, die sich aus anderen Komponenten des ICLIPS-Modells ergeben. Klimawirkungsfunktionen werden durch verschiedene Typen von Diagrammen visualisiert, welche jeweils unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf die Ergebnismenge der Klimawirkungssimulationen erlauben.
Die schiere Anzahl von Klimawirkungsfunktionen verhindert ihre umfassende Darstellung in dieser Arbeit. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse zu Veränderungen in der räumlichen Ausdehnung von Biomen, im landwirtschaftlichen Potential verschiedener Länder und in der Wasserverfügbarkeit in mehreren großen Einzugsgebieten werden diskutiert. Die Gesamtheit der Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird zugänglich gemacht durch das 'ICLIPS Impacts Tool', eine graphische Benutzeroberfläche, die einen bequemen Zugriff auf über 100.000 Klimawirkungsdiagramme ermöglicht. Die technischen Aspekte der Software sowie die zugehörige Datenbasis wird beschrieben.
Die wichtigste Anwendung von Klimawirkungsfunktionen ist im 'Inversmodus', wo sie genutzt werden, um Leitplanken zur Begrenzung von Klimafolgen in gleichzeitige Randbedingungen für Variablen aus dem optimierenden ICLIPS-Klima-Weltwirtschafts-Modell zu übersetzen. Diese Übersetzung wird ermöglicht durch Algorithmen zur Bestimmung von Mengen erreichbarer Klimazustände ('reachable climate domains') sowie zur parametrisierten Approximation zulässiger Klimafenster ('admissible climate windows'), die aus Klimawirkungsfunktionen abgeleitet werden. Der umfassende Bestand an Klimawirkungsfunktionen zusammen mit diesen Algorithmen ermöglicht es dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell, in flexibler Weise diejenigen klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, welche bestimmte in biophysikalischen Einheiten ausgedrückte Begrenzungen von Klimafolgen explizit berücksichtigen. Diese Möglichkeit bietet kein anderes intertemporal optimierendes 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell. Eine Leitplankenanalyse mit dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell unter Anwendung ausgewählter Klimawirkungsfunktionen für Veränderungen natürlicher Ökosysteme wird beschrieben. In dieser Analyse werden so genannte 'notwendige Emissionskorridore' berechnet, die vorgegebene Beschränkungen hinsichtlich der maximal zulässigen globalen Vegetationsveränderungen und der regionalen Klimaschutzkosten berücksichtigen. Dies geschieht sowohl für eine 'Standardkombination' der drei gewählten Kriterien als auch für deren systematische Variation.
Eine abschließende Diskussion aktueller Entwicklungen in der 'Integrated Assessment'-Modellierung stellt diese Arbeit mit anderen einschlägigen Bemühungen in Beziehung.
This thesis describes the development and application of the impacts module of the ICLIPS model, a global integrated assessment model of climate change. The presentation of the technical aspects of this model component is preceded by a discussion of the sociopolitical context for model-based integrated assessments, which defines important requirements for the specification of the model.
Integrated assessment of climate change comprises a broad range of scientific efforts to support the decision-making about objectives and measures for climate policy, whereby many different approaches have been followed to provide policy-relevant information about climate impacts. Major challenges in this context are the large diversity of the relevant spatial and temporal scales, the multifactorial causation of many climate impacts', considerable scientific uncertainties, and the ambiguity associated with unavoidable normative evaluations. A hierarchical framework is presented for structuring climate impact assessments that reflects the evolution of their practice and of the underlying theory.
Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are scientific tools that contain simplified representations of the relevant components of the coupled society-climate system. The major decision-analytical frameworks for IAMs are evaluated according to their ability to address important aspects of the pertinent social decision problem. The guardrail approach is presented as an inverse' framework for climate change decision support, which aims to identify the whole set of policy strategies that are compatible with a set of normatively specified constraints (guardrails'). This approach combines, to a certain degree, the scientific rigour and objectivity typical of predictive approaches with the ability to consider virtually all decision options that is at the core of optimization approaches. The ICLIPS model is described as the first IAM that implements the guardrail approach.
The representation of climate impacts is a key concern in any IAM. A review of existing IAMs reveals large differences in the coverage of impact sectors, in the choice of the impact numeraire(s), in the consideration of non-climatic developments, including purposeful adaptation, in the handling of uncertainty, and in the inclusion of singular events. IAMs based on an inverse approach impose specific requirements to the representation of climate impacts. This representation needs to combine a level of detail and reliability that is sufficient for the specification of impact guardrails with the conciseness and efficiency that allows for an exploration of the complete domain of plausible climate protection strategies. Large-scale singular events can often be represented by dynamic reduced-form models. This approach, however, is less appropriate for regular impacts where the determination of policy-relevant results generally needs to consider the heterogeneity of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors at the local or regional scale.
Climate impact response functions (CIRFs) are identified as the most suitable reduced-form representation of regular climate impacts in the ICLIPS model. A CIRF depicts the aggregated response of a climate-sensitive system or sector as simulated by a spatially explicit sectoral impact model for a representative subset of plausible futures. In the CIRFs presented here, global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are used as predictors for global and regional impacts on natural vegetation, agricultural crop production, and water availability. Application of a pattern scaling technique makes it possible to consider the regional and seasonal patterns in the climate anomalies simulated by several general circulation models while ensuring the efficiency of the dynamic model components.
Efforts to provide quantitative estimates of future climate impacts generally face a trade-off between the relevance of an indicator for stakeholders and the exactness with which it can be determined. A number of non-monetary aggregated impact indicators for the CIRFs is presented, which aim to strike the balance between these two conflicting goals while taking into account additional constraints of the ICLIPS modelling framework. Various types of impact diagrams are used for the visualization of CIRFs, each of which provides a different perspective on the impact result space.
The sheer number of CIRFs computed for the ICLIPS model precludes their comprehensive presentation in this thesis. Selected results referring to changes in the distribution of biomes in different biogeographical regions, in the agricultural potential of various countries, and in the water availability in selected major catchments are discussed. The full set of CIRFs is accessible via the ICLIPS Impacts Tool, a graphical user interface that provides convenient access to more than 100,000 impact diagrams developed for the ICLIPS model. The technical aspects of the software are described as well as the accompanying database of CIRFs.
The most important application of CIRFs is in inverse' mode, where they are used to translate impact guardrails into simultaneous constraints for variables from the optimizing ICLIPS climate-economy model. This translation is facilitated by algorithms for the computation of reachable climate domains and for the parameterized approximation of admissible climate windows derived from CIRFs. The comprehensive set of CIRFs, together with these algorithms, enables the ICLIPS model to flexibly explore sets of climate policy strategies that explicitly comply with impact guardrails specified in biophysical units. This feature is not found in any other intertemporally optimizing IAM. A guardrail analysis with the integrated ICLIPS model is described that applies selected CIRFs for ecosystem changes. So-called necessary carbon emission corridors' are determined for a default choice of normative constraints that limit global vegetation impacts as well as regional mitigation costs, and for systematic variations of these constraints.
A brief discussion of recent developments in integrated assessment modelling of climate change connects the work presented here with related efforts.
Hoos, Jennifer Piper Jorve. "Climate change impacts on the kelp life history cycle." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/52166.
Full textScience, Faculty of
Zoology, Department of
Graduate
Booij, Martijn Jan. "Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding." Enschede : University of Twente [Host], 2002. http://doc.utwente.nl/58717.
Full textMsowoya, Kondwani. "Climate Change Impacts on Rainfed Corn Production in Malawi." Master's thesis, University of Central Florida, 2013. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/5992.
Full textM.S.
Masters
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering
Engineering and Computer Science
Civil Engineering; Water Resources Engineering
Dickinson, Maria Grace. "Climate change impacts on species : a trait-based approach." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/39389.
Full textJaroszweski, David John. "Climate change and road freight safety : impacts and opportunities." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2010. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/1220/.
Full textBandoro, Justin. "Attribution of stratospheric ozone change and associated climate impacts." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115780.
Full textCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references.
Recognition of stratospheric ozone depletion as a significant global danger sparked the landmark international agreement of the Montreal Protocol to control the production of ozone depleting substances (ODSs). There are now signs of stratospheric ozone recovery, and it is essential to understand whether the observed historical changes, during both the depletion and recovery eras, are directly the result of secular changes in ODSs, or influenced by other anthropogenic and natural forcings such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) and solar variability. This thesis explores the climate impacts of stratospheric ozone depletion, and how we can attribute, with high confidence, the causes of observed changes in stratospheric ozone. First, the linkages between Antarctic ozone loss and midlatitude surface climate changes are investigated. Unusually hot summer extremes in Australia, South America and Africa were found to be associated with elevated levels of ozone the previous November, and that this link has only emerged in the era of the Antarctic ozone hole. This study provides motivation for understanding the causes of ozone changes, showing direct impacts to regions where humans live. Second, a formal detection and attribution study of stratospheric ozone change is presented. A multi-satellite observational dataset and simulations from a chemistry climate model are analyzed. An improvement to conventional fingerprint attribution methodology is presented that accounts for nonlinearities in the temporal evolution of anthropogenic forcings. High confidence in the detection of ODSs upon observed stratospheric ozone change is shown. Detection of a GHG signal, in stratospheric ozone, is projected to emerge in the mid-21st century. Third, the improved attribution methodology is applied to seasonal atmospheric circulation changes. Reanalysis products and simulations from a multimodel assessment are used. Positive detection of both ODS and GHG fingerprints is found during the months of December- May, with the ODS signal dominating in the Southern Hemisphere. Ultimately, the results of this thesis further our scientific understanding of the role of ODSs in climate change, and provide new steps for future detection and attribution studies of the climate system.
by Justin Bandoro.
Ph. D. in Climate Science
Weber, Marie-Christin. "How do water companies adapt to climate change impacts?" Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-135903.
Full textTreasure, Anne M. (Anne Margaret). "Climate change and invasion impacts in the sub-Antarctic." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/20010.
Full textENGLISH ABSTRACT: Climate change and biological invasions are major threats to biodiversity. In particular, these threats are predicted to influence terrestrial systems in the sub-Antarctic, where significant ecosystem responses to both have already been seen. In this thesis, the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Island group is used as a model system in which to investigate key questions relating to climate change and invasive species impacts. The island group comprises two islands, Marion (MI) and Prince Edward (PEI), both of which are experiencing rapid warming, yet have different invasive assemblages and in consequence are experiencing different impacts. Variation in the patterns of invasive species richness and abundance and their underlying causes are matters of considerable ecological and conservation significance. While an increase in thermal energy availability typically results in an increase in species richness, the mechanisms underlying these patterns are poorly understood. In Chapter 2 of this thesis, these relationships are explored for springtails, an important component of the soil fauna on Marion Island. Energy explains a large amount of the spatial variation in indigenous and invasive springtail species richness. Disturbance thresholds and stressful temperatures are more important than increased population sizes in determining this variation in species richness. As both indigenous and invasive springtail species richness and abundance are strongly related to temperature, a warming climate could have far-reaching consequences for these organisms. In particular, invasive species are predicted to be at an advantage relative to indigenous species under warming conditions. One species where this seems especially likely, given its physiological responses to experimental warming and drying, is the large invasive tomocerid, Pogonognathellus flavescens. Determining whether this will be the case depends on understanding the factors underlying its range limits and abundance structure. Moreover, few studies have sought to distinguish the causal basis of abundance structure and range limits, particularly for invasive species. Thus, in Chapter 3, local microclimate variables and physiological tolerances of the invasive springtail, P. flavescens (a habitat generalist), are examined. The results suggest that the species should be widely distributed across a range of habitats on MI. However, the springtail is restricted to indigenous Poa cookii tussock grassland habitats in the southeast. The current range limits are set by dispersal limitation (i.e. contingent absences) whilst abundance structure is a function of variation in soil substrate quality. However, over time, the widening distribution of P. cookii, as a consequence of a major management intervention (the eradication of feral cats), may enable P. flavescens to colonise all suitable areas. In Chapter 4, the focus changes to what has been considered the third major response to climate change, along with range and phenological responses - changing animal body sizes. Body size is one of the most significant and obvious features of animals and is of considerable ecological and physiological importance. A prediction of the temperature-size rule (TSR) is that with warming, body size of the weevil species on both MI and PEI should decline. However, predation by mice of the weevils on MI should fundamentally affect the pattern of such change, causing it to differ from neighbouring PEI, indicating synergistic impacts between climate change and invasions. Analysis of a 24-year data set indicates a decline in the body size of all weevil species on PEI with increasing temperature. However, on MI, a negative relationship between mean annual temperature and body size is found only for Palirhoeus eatoni, a species not eaten by mice. A possible explanation for the positive relationships found for the other species could be due to higher metabolic demands imposed on mice in colder years than in warmer ones. Any increase in predation coupled with a preference for larger sizes, which the mice clearly show, would lead to a decline in the mean size of the weevil species. Due to the relationship between body size and metabolic rate and the importance of the weevils in the islands’ food webs, changes to the body size of these organisms could have significant consequences for the island ecosystems’ functioning. The thermal environment experienced by organisms also has a direct effect on survival, growth and reproduction. The physiological response of organisms to rapidly changing climates is therefore a primary concern. Organisms may respond to variable environmental conditions through phenotypic plasticity as well as behaviour. Chapter 5 of this thesis shows that of the weevil species and populations investigated on MI, most display phenotypic plasticity, the form of which is in keeping with the ‘Hotter is Better’ hypothesis. This could be due to rare extreme temperature events and the advantage for the performance curves to incorporate high temperatures experienced in the environment. Mismatches between thermal optima and preferred temperatures displayed by all species could mean that these weevils are well equipped to cope with warming conditions on MI unless the prediction of an increase of rare extreme events such as extreme temperatures is realised. Rapidly changing climates and an increase in the introduction of non-indigenous species are issues of major conservation concern. This has increased the significance of studies on the impacts of these threats. However, this thesis shows that to understand such processes, it is essential that an integration of disciplines be undertaken. This thesis thus adopts a multidisciplinary approach and highlights key issues associated with both climate change and biological invasions. The patterns and predictions of species and community responses to these environmental changes are complex. Moreover, predicting such responses is likely to be problematic, especially as multiple factors will change concurrently and how these factors might change is unclear. This highlights the importance of long-term records for understanding organism responses to such changes. Furthermore, impacts on indigenous species are likely to be exacerbated by the predicted increase in the rate of introductions with climate change. This makes the case for preventing the dispersal of invasive species to new areas all the more important.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Klimaatsverandering en indringer spesies is belangrike bedreigings vir biodiversiteit. In besonder word voorspel dat hierdie bedreigings terrestriële sisteme in die sub-Antarktiese sal beïnvloed, waar beduidende ekosisteem reaksie aan beide reeds gesien is. In hierdie tesis word die sub-Antarktiese Prince Edward eiland groep as a model sisteem gebruik om belangrike vrae met betrekking tot klimaatsverandering en die impak van indringer spesies te ondersoek. Die eiland groep bestaan uit twee eilande, Marion (ME) en Prince Edward (PEE), wat beide versnellende verwarming ervaar, maar tog verskillende indringer samestellings het en vervolgens verskillende impakte ervaar. Variasie in die patrone van indringerspesierykheid en vollopheid en hulle onderliggende oorsake is van aansienlike omgewings en bewarings betekenis. Terwyl 'n toename in die beskikbaarheid van energie tipies lei tot 'n toename in spesierykheid, word die onderliggend meganismes van hierdie patrone swak verstaan. In Hoofstuk 2 van hierdie tesis, word hierdie verhoudings vir springsterte ondersoek, 'n belangrike komponent van die grond fauna op ME. Energie verduidelik 'n groot hoeveelheid van die ruimtelike variasie in inheemse en indringende springstert spesierykheid. Versteuringsdrempels en stressvolle temperature is meer belangrik as die toename in bevolking groottes in die bepaling van hierdie variasie in spesierykheid. Aangesien beide inheemse en indringende springstert spesierykheid en vollopheid sterk verwant is aan temperatuur, kan 'n verwarmende klimaat verreikende gevolge vir hierdie organismes hê. In die besonder word voorspel dat indringerspesies bevoordeeld sal wees relatief tot inheemse spesies onder verwarmende toestande. Een spesie waar dit veral blyk om geneig te wees, gegewe sy fisiologiese reaksie tot eksperimentele verhitting en uitdroging, is die groot indringer tomocerid, Pogonognathellus flavescens. Om te bepaal of dit die geval sal wees, hang af van die begrip van die onderliggende faktore van sy voorkomsgrense en vollopheidstruktuur. Daarbenewens is daar min studies wat gepoog het om te onderskei tussen die veroorsakende basis van vollopheidstruktuur en voorkomsgrense, veral vir indringerspesies. Dus, in Hoofstuk 3, word plaaslike mikroklimaat veranderlikes en fisiologiese toleransies van die indringer springstert, P. flavescens ('n habitat generalis), ondersoek. Die resultate stel voor dat die spesie wyd verspreid moet wees oor 'n verskeidenheid van habitatte op ME. Maar, die springstert is beperk tot inheemse Poa cookii polle grasveldhabitatte in die suidooste. Die huidige voorkomsgrense word daar gestel deur verspreidingsbeperking (dws voorwaardelike afwesighede), terwyl vollopheidstruktuur 'n funksie is van die variasie in die grond substraat kwaliteit. Maar, die uitbreidende verspreiding van P. cookii as gevolg van 'n groot bestuursingryping (die uitwissing van wilde huiskatte), kan P. flavescens in staat stel om alle geskikte gebiede te koloniseer met verloop van tyd. In Hoofstuk 4 verander die fokus na wat as die derde groot reaksie op klimaatsverandering beskou word, saam met voorkoms en fenologiese reaksies - veranderende diere liggaamsgroottes. Liggaamsgrootte is een van die beduidendste en mees voor die hand liggende eienskappe van diere en is van aansienlike ekologiese en fisiologiese belang. 'n Voorspelling van die temperatuur-grootte-reël (TGR) is dat met verwarming, liggaamsgrootte van die snuitkewerspesies op beide ME en PEE sal afneem. Hoe ookal, predasie deur muise van die snuitkewers op ME moet fundamenteel die patroon van sodanige verandering op PEE beïnvloed, wat sinergistiese impakte tussen klimaatsverandering en indringings aandui. Die ontleding van 'n 24-jarige datastel dui aan op 'n afname in die liggaamsgrootte van alle snuitkewer spesies op PEI met ‘n toename in temperatuur. Maar, op ME is 'n negatiewe verhouding tussen die gemiddelde jaarlikse temperatuur en liggaamsgrootte net gevind vir Palirhoeus eatoni, 'n spesie wat nie deur die muise geëet word nie. 'n Moontlike verduideliking vir hierdie positiewe verhoudings wat gevind is vir die ander spesies kan wees as gevolg van hoër metaboliese eise op die muise in kouer jare as in warmer jare. Enige toename in predasie, tesame met 'n voorkeur vir groter mates, wat die muise duidelik wys, sou lei tot 'n afname in die gemiddelde grootte van die snuitkewer spesies. As gevolg van die verhouding tussen liggaamsgrootte en metaboliese tempo, sowel as die belangrikheid van die snuitkewers in die eilande se voedselwebbe, kan veranderinge in die liggaamsgrootte van hierdie organismes beduidende gevolge op die eiland ekosisteme se funksionering hê. Die termiese omgewing wat deur organismes ervaar word het ook 'n direkte invloed op oorlewing, groei en voortplanting. Die fisiologiese reaksie van organismes op vinnig veranderende klimate is dus 'n primêre bron van kommer. Organismes kan reageer op veranderlike omgewingstoestande deur fenotipiese plastisiteit sowel as gedrag. Hoofstuk 5 van hierdie tesis toon dat van die snuitkewerspesies en bevolkings wat ondersoek is op ME, die meeste fenotipiese plastisiteit vertoon, die vorm wat in ooreenstemming is met die ‘Warmer is Beter’ hipotese. Dit kan wees as gevolg van seldsame uiterste temperatuur gebeure en die voordeel vir die prestasie kurwes om hoë temperature wat ervaar word in die omgewing in te sluit. Mismatches tussen termiese optima en voorkeur temperature vertoon deur alle spesies kan beteken dat hierdie snuitkewers goed toegerus is om die verhitting op ME te hanteer, tensy die voorspelling van 'n toename van seldsame uiterste gebeure soos uiterste temperature gerealiseer word. Vinnig veranderende klimate en 'n toename in die bekendstelling van nie-inheemse spesies is kwessies van groot bewarings kommer. Dit het die betekenis van studies oor die impak van hierdie bedreigings verhoog. Hierdie tesis toon egter dat om sulke prosesse te verstaan, dit noodsaaklik is dat 'n integrasie van die dissiplines onderneem word. Hierdie tesis aanvaar dus 'n multi-dissiplinêre benadering en beklemtoon die belangrike kwessies wat verband hou met beide klimaatverandering en biologiese indringing. Die patrone en voorspellings van spesies en die gemeenskapsreaksies op hierdie omgewingsveranderinge is kompleks. Verder, die voorspelling van sodanige reaksies sal waarskynlik problematies wees, veral omdat verskeie faktore gelyktydig sal verander en hoe hierdie faktore kan verander is onduidelik. Dit beklemtoon die belangrikheid van lang termyn rekords vir die begrip van organisme reaksies op sulke veranderinge. Verder, die impak van inheemse spesies is geneig om te vererger deur die voorspelde toename in die tempo van bekendstellings met klimaatsverandering. Dit maak die taak vir die bestuur van die voorkoming dat indringerspesies nuwe gebiede bereik al hoe meer belangrik.
Jennings, Stewart Adam. "The impacts of climate change on global potato agriculture." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2018. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/22232/.
Full textNunes, João Filipe Cleto. "Climate change impacts on portuguese energy system in 2050." Master's thesis, FCT - UNL, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/1794.
Full textSignificant work has been developed in defining climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation measures both on national and worldwide scopes. In the published literature, strong references are made linking effects of mitigation and adaptation and how the two can counteract, but there is still a lack of integrated assessment of these issues. Using the optimization model TIMES_PT, calibrated and validated for Portugal, interactions between climate change, mitigation strategies, adaptation and the energy system are evaluated in this thesis. A special focus is addressed on two sectors where climate change effects are the most noticeable: hydroelectric production and energy demand. Results indicate that it is wise and cost-effective to delay the investment in new hydropower infrastructure beyond 2020 and that hydropower installed capacity could be reduced in 15% in 2050 when compared with the scenario with no climate change. Furthermore, large hydropower capacity could compromise the deployment of advanced electricity production technologies. Overall,the energy system will benefit from climate change due to useful energy demand reduction, reaching accumulated savings from 4500M€2000 to 6100M€2000 compared to the no climate change scenario.
Löschel, Andreas. "Economic impacts of climate change policy a quantitative analysis /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2003. http://www.bsz-bw.de/cgi-bin/xvms.cgi?SWB10605051.
Full textSerrat, Capdevila Aleix. "Climate Change Impacts in Hydrology: Quantification and Societal Adaptation." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194702.
Full textBunn, Christian. "Modeling the climate change impacts on global coffee production." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17349.
Full textTo model the impacts of climate change on global coffee production in an integrated modeling framework was the objective of this thesis. The majority of coffee is produced using either one of two species which form a single market: the heat sensitive Coffea arabica (Arabica) and the cold sensitive Coffea canephora (Robusta). Recently, evidence is increasing that climate change has begun to affect production. Machine learning classification was used to develop a global biophysical impacts model for both coffee species. Integrating these biophysical effects with demand side effects required a detailed understanding of the spatial distribution of coffee production. Because existing datasets were found to be insufficient a novel methodology was developed that built upon the machine learning classification of coffee suitability. These two steps were preconditions to include a model of the coffee sector in the spatially explicit partial equilibrium modeling framework Globiom. On only half the area that is currently available for coffee production by 2050 2.5-times as much coffee will have to be produced to meet future demand. Reduced yields and increased prices were shown to reduce the coffee market by more than 5million tons per year, equivalent to the size of the baseyear market volume. Coffee production will migrate to higher elevations where area is available for agricultural production. Production will remain within current latitudinal ranges but major producers like Brazil and Vietnam will struggle to remain competitive with relatively less affected countries in East Africa. Substantial uncertainty about the impacts on local scale prevails and impedes the development of unambiguous adaptation strategies. Thus, there will be coffee on the table in 2050, but it will be of lower quality and will cost more.
Barnuud, Nyamdorj Namjildorj. "Determining climate change impacts on viticulture in Western Australia." Thesis, Curtin University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1677.
Full textMaréchal, Kevin. "The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics: the implications for climate policy of adopting an evolutionary perspective." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210278.
Full textClimate change is today often seen as one of the most challenging issue that our civilisation will have to face during the 21st century. This is especially so now that the most recent scientific data have led to the conclusion that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming (IPCC 2007, p. 5) and that continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming (IPCC, 2007 p. 13). This unequivocal link between climate change and anthropogenic activities requires an urgent, world-wide shift towards a low carbon economy (STERN 2006 p. iv) and coordinated policies and measures to manage this transition.
The climate issue is undoubtedly a typical policy question and as such, is considered amenable to economic scrutiny. Indeed, in today’s world economics is inevitable when it comes to arbitrages in the field of policy making. From the very beginning of international talks on climate change, up until the most recent discussions on a post-Kyoto international framework, economic arguments have turned out to be crucial elements of the analysis that shapes policy responses to the climate threat. This can be illustrated by the prominent role that economics has played in the different analyses produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the impact of climate change on society.
The starting point and the core idea of this PhD research is the long-held observation that the threat of climate change calls for a change of climate in economics. Borrowing from the jargon used in climate policy, adaptation measures could also usefully target the academic discipline of economics. Given that inherent characteristics of the climate problem (e.g. complexity, irreversibility, deep uncertainty, etc.) challenge core economic assumptions, mainstream economic theory does not appear as appropriately equipped to deal with this crucial issue. This makes that new assumptions and analyses are needed in economics in order to comprehend and respond to the problem of climate change.
In parallel (and without environmental considerations being specifically the driving force to it), the mainstream model in economics has also long been (and still is) strongly criticised and disputed by numerous scholars - both from within and outside the field of economics. For the sake of functionality, these criticisms - whether they relate to theoretical inconsistencies or are empirically-based - can be subsumed as all challenging part of the Cartesian/Newtonian legacy of economics. This legacy can be shown to have led to a model imprinted with what could be called “mechanistic reductionism”. The mechanistic side refers to the Homo oeconomicus construct while reductionism refers to the quest for micro-foundations materialised with the representative agent hypothesis. These two hypotheses constitute, together with the conjecture of perfect markets, the building blocks of the framework of general equilibrium economics.
Even though it is functional for the purpose of this work to present them separately, the flaws of economics in dealing with the specificities of the climate issue are not considered independent from the fundamental objections made to the theoretical framework of mainstream economics. The former only make the latter seem more pregnant while the current failure of traditional climate policies informed by mainstream economics render the need for complementary approaches more urgent.
2. Overview of the approach and its main insights for climate policy
Starting from this observation, the main objective of this PhD is thus to assess the implications for climate policy that arise from adopting an alternative analytical economic framework. The stance is that the coupling of insights from the framework of evolutionary economics with the perspective of ecological economics provides a promising way forward both theoretically as well as on a more applied basis with respect to a better comprehension of the socioeconomic aspects related to the climate problem. As claimed in van den Bergh (2007, p. 521), ecological economics and evolutionary economics “share many characteristics and can be combined in a fruitful way" - which renders the coupling approach both legitimate and promising.
The choice of an evolutionary line of thought initially stems from its core characteristic: given its focus on innovation and system change it provides a useful approach to start with for assessing and managing the needed transition towards a low carbon economy. Besides, its shift of focus towards a better understanding of economic dynamics together with its departure from the perfect rationality hypothesis renders evolutionary economics a suitable theoretical complement for designing environmental policies.
The notions of path-dependence and lock-in can be seen as the core elements from this PhD research. They arise from adopting a framework which is founded on a different view of individual rationality and that allows for richer and more complex causalities to be accounted for. In a quest for surmounting the above-mentioned problem of reductionism, our framework builds on the idea of ‘multi-level selection’. This means that our analytical framework should be able to accommodate not only for upward but also for downward causation, without giving analytical priority to any level over the other. One crucial implication of such a framework is that the notion of circularity becomes the core dynamic, highlighting the importance of historicity, feedbacks and emergent properties.
More precisely, the added value of the perspective adopted in this PhD research is that it highlights the role played by inertia and path-dependence. Obviously, it is essential to have a good understanding of the underlying causes of that inertia prior to devising on how to enforce a change. Providing a clear picture of the socio-economic processes at play in shaping socio-technical systems is thus a necessary first step in order to usefully complement policy-making in the field of energy and climate change. In providing an analytical basis for this important diagnosis to be performed, the use of the evolutionary framework sheds a new light on the transition towards low-carbon socio-technical systems. The objective is to suggest strategies that could prove efficient in triggering the needed transition such as it has been the case in past “lock-in” stories.
Most notably, the evolutionary framework allows us to depict the presence of two sources of inertia (i.e at the levels of individuals through “habits” and at the level of socio-technical systems) that mutually reinforce each other in a path-dependent manner. Within the broad perspective on path dependence and lock-in, this PhD research has first sketched the implications for climate policy of applying the concept of ‘technological lock-in’ in a systemic perspective. We then investigated in more details the notion of habits. This is important as the ‘behavioural’ part of the lock-in process, although explicitly acknowledged in the pioneer work of Paul David (David, 1985, p. 336), has been neglected in most of subsequent analyses. Throughout this study, the notion of habits has been studied at both the theoretical and applied level of analysis as well as from an empirical perspective.
As shown in the first chapters of the PhD, the advantage of our approach is that it can incorporate theories that so far have been presented opposite, partial and incomplete perspectives. For instance, it is shown that our evolutionary approach not only is able to provide explanation to some of the puzzling questions in economics (e.g. the problem of strong reciprocity displayed by individual in anonymous one-shot situations) but also is very helpful in bringing a complementary explanation with respect to the famous debate on the ‘no-regret’ emission reduction potential which agitates the experts of climate policy.
An emission reduction potential is said to be "no regret" when the costs of implementing a measure are more than offset by the benefits it generates such as, for instance, reduced energy bills. In explaining why individuals do not spontaneously implement those highly profitable energy-efficient investments ,it appears that most prior analyses have neglected the importance of non-economic obstacle. They are often referred to as “barriers” and partly relate to the ‘bounded rationality’ of economic agent. As developed in the different chapters of this PhD research, the framework of evolutionary economics is very useful in that it is able to provide a two-fold account (i.e. relying on both individual and socio-technical sources of inertia) of this limited rationality that prevent individuals to act as purely optimising agents.
Bearing this context in mind, the concept of habits, as defined and developed in this study, is essential in analysing the determinants of energy consumption. Indeed, this concept sheds an insightful light on the puzzling question of why energy consumption keeps rising even though there is an evident increase of awareness and concern about energy-related environmental issues such as climate change. Indeed, if we subscribe to the idea that energy-consuming behaviours are often guided by habits and that deeply ingrained habits can become “counter-intentional”, it then follows that people may often display “locked-in” practices in their daily energy consumption behaviour. This hypothesis has been assessed in our empirical analysis whose results show how the presence of strong energy-consuming habitual practices can reduce the effectiveness of economic incentives such as energy subsidies. One additional delicate factor that appears crucial for our purpose is that habits are not fully conscious forms of behaviours. This makes that individuals do not really see habits as a problem given that it is viewed as easily changed.
In sum, based on our evolutionary account of the situation, it follows that, to be more efficient, climate policies would have to both shift the incumbent carbon-based socio-technical systems (for it to shape decisions towards a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) and also deconstruct habits that this same socio-technical has forged with time (as increased environmental awareness and intentions formulated accordingly are not sufficient in the presence of strong habits).
Accordingly, decision-makers should design measures (e.g. commitment strategies, niche management, etc.) that, as explained in this research, specifically target those change-resisting factors and their key features. This is essential as these factors tend to reduce the efficiency of traditional instruments. Micro-level interventions are thus needed as much as macro-level ones. For instance, it is often the case that external improvements of energy efficiency do not lead to lower energy consumption due to the rebound effect arising from unchanged energy-consuming habits. Bearing this in mind and building on the insights from the evolutionary approach, policy-makers should go beyond the mere subsidisation of technologies. They should instead create conditions enabling the use of the multi-layered, cumulative and self-reinforcing character of economic change highlighted by evolutionary analyses. This means supporting both social and physical technologies with the aim of influencing the selection environment so that only the low-carbon technologies and practices will survive.
Mentioned references:
David, P. A. (1985), Clio and the economics of QWERTY, American Economic Review 75/2: 332–337.
IPCC, 2007, ‘Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis’, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S. D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
Stern, N. 2006, ‘Stern Review: The economics of Climate Change’, Report to the UK Prime Minister and Chancellor, London, 575 p. (www.sternreview.org.uk)
van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. 2007, ‘Evolutionary thinking in environmental economics’, Journal of Evolutionary Economics 17(5): 521-549.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Gentner, Tiffany M. "Climate Impacts on Nutrient Loading in Lake Erie." University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1525281661690821.
Full textAllcock, Samantha Lee. "Living with a changing climate : Holocene climate variability and socio-evolutionary trajectories, central Turkey." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1591.
Full textCrimmins, Michael, and Gregg Garfin. "Climate Change and Wildfire Impacts in Southwest Forests and Woodlands (Climate Change and Variability in Southwest Ecosystems Series)." College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/146955.
Full textSouthwest forests are complex systems that are influenced by climate variability. Wildfires naturally occur in these forests and woodlands, but with an increasing population, land management decisions are becoming more difficult. This publication is a result of discussions from the "Workshop on Climate Variability and Ecosystem Impacts" that was sponsored by UA Cooperative Extension in February 2005. It provides a summary of the current situation, a summary of climate change science for land management, and a brief description of suggested future research in climate science as it relates to forests and woodlands.
Sirois-Delisle, Catherine. "Modeling Future Climate Change Impacts on North American Bumblebee Distributions." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/37028.
Full textAlizadeh, Behdad. "The impacts of climate change on designing sustainable urban landscapes." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2016. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/14381/.
Full textWaha, Katharina. "Climate change impacts on agricultural vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2012. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6471/.
Full textLandwirtschaft ist eine der wichtigsten menschlichen Aktivitäten, sie stellt Nahrungsmittel und andere landwirtschaftliche Produkte für weltweit 7 Milliarden Menschen zur Verfügung und ist in den Ländern Afrikas südlich der Sahara von besonderer Bedeutung. Die Mehrheit der afrikanischen Bevölkerung bestreitet ihren Lebensunterhalt in der Landwirtschaft und wird von Klimaänderungen stark betroffen sein. Die Doktorarbeit ist durch die Frage motiviert, wie sich von Klimamodellen vorhergesagte Temperaturerhöhungen und sich verändernde Niederschlagsverteilungen auf die landwirtschaftliche Vegetation auswirken werden. Die Forschungsfragen in diesem Kontext beschäftigen sich mit regionalen Unterschieden von Klimaänderungen und ihren Auswirkungen auf die Landwirtschaft und mit möglichen Anpassungsstrategien die mit geringem technischem Aufwand genutzt werden können. In diesem Zusammenhang wird schnell deutlich, dass Daten über die komplexen landwirtschaftlichen Systeme in Afrika südlich der Sahara häufig nur selten vorhanden sind, aus fragwürdigen Quellen stammen oder von schlechter Qualität sind. Die Methoden und Modelle zur Untersuchung der Auswirkungen von Klimaänderungen auf die Landwirtschaft werden zudem ausschließlich in Europa oder Nordamerika entwickelt and häufig in den temperierten Breiten aber seltener in tropischen Gebieten angewendet. Vor allem werden globale, dynamische Vegetationsmodelle in Kombination mit Klimamodellen eingesetzt um Änderungen in der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion auf Grund von Klimaänderungen in der zweiten Hälfte des 21.Jahrhunderts abzuschätzen. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit zeigen einen mittleren Ertragsrückgang für die wichtigsten landwirtschaftlichen Pflanzen um 6% bis 24% bis 2090 je nach Region, Klimamodell und Anpassungsstrategie. Dieses Ergebnis macht deutlich, dass Landwirte die negativen Folgen von Klimaänderungen abschwächen können, wenn sie die Wahl der Feldfrucht, die Wahl des Anbausystems und den Aussaattermin an geänderte Klimabedingungen anpassen. Die Arbeit stellt methodische Ansätze zur Berechung des Aussaattermins in temperierten und tropischen Gebieten (Kapitel 2) sowie zur Simulation von Mehrfachanbausystemen in den Tropen vor (Kapitel 3). Dabei werden wichtige Parameter für das globale, dynamische Vegetationsmodell LPJmL überprüft und neu berechnet. Es zeigt sich, dass das südliche Afrika und die Sahelregion die am stärksten betroffenen Regionen sind, vor allem aufgrund von Niederschlagsänderungen, weniger aufgrund von Temperaturerhöhungen. In den meisten anderen Teilen, vor allem Zentral- und Ostafrikas bedingen Temperaturerhöhungen Rückgänge der Erträge (Kapitel 4). Diese Arbeit leistet einen wichtigen und umfassenden Beitrag zum Verständnis der Auswirkung von Klimaänderung auf die landwirtschaftliche Vegetation und damit zu einem großen Teil auf die Lebensgrundlage von afrikanischen Landwirten.
McKechnie, Nicole R., and University of Lethbridge Faculty of Arts and Science. "Predicting climate change impacts on precipitation for western North America." Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Faculty of Arts and Science, 2005, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/269.
Full textix, 209 leaves : col. maps ; 29 cm.
Larson, Robert, and University of Lethbridge Faculty of Arts and Science. "Modelling climate change impacts on mountain snow hydrology, Montana-Alberta." Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Faculty of Arts and Science, 2008, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/669.
Full textxii, 136 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm. --
Ayutthaya, Sarinya Sanitwong-Na. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in coastal aquifers." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.505624.
Full textLi, Sanai. "Investigating the impacts of climate change on wheat in China." Thesis, University of Reading, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.501354.
Full textSiebenmorgen, Christopher B. "Potential climate change impacts on hydrologic regimes in northeast Kansas." Thesis, Kansas State University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/6993.
Full textDepartment of Biological & Agricultural Engineering
Kyle R. Douglas-Mankin
The Great Plains once encompassed 160 million hectares of grassland in the central United States. In the last several decades, conversion of grassland to urban and agricultural production areas has caused significant increases in runoff and erosion. Past attempts to slow this hydrologic system degradation have shown success, but climate change could once again significantly alter the hydrology. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) studies the state of knowledge pertaining to climate change. The IPCC has developed four possible future scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2). The output temperature and precipitation data for Northeast Kansas from fifteen A2 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were analyzed in this study. This analysis showed that future temperature increases are consistent among the GCMs. On the other hand, precipitation projections varied greatly among GCMs both on annual and monthly scales. It is clear that the results of a hydrologic study will vary depending on which GCM is used to generate future climate data. To overcome this difficulty, a way to take all GCMs into account in a hydrologic analysis is needed. Separate methods were used to develop three groups of scenarios from the output of fifteen A2 GCMs. Using a stochastic weather generator, WINDS, monthly adjustments for future temperature and precipitation were applied to actual statistics from the 1961 – 1990 to generate 105 years of data for each climate scenario. The SWAT model was used to simulate watershed processes for each scenario. The streamflow output was analyzed with the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration program, which calculated multiple hydrologic indices that were then compared back to a baseline scenario. This analysis showed that large changes in projected annual precipitation caused significant hydrologic alteration. Similar alterations were obtained using scenarios with minimal annual precipitation change. This was accomplished with seasonal shifts in precipitation, or by significantly increasing annual temperature. One scenario showing an increase in spring precipitation accompanied by a decrease in summer precipitation caused an increase in both flood and drought events for the study area. The results of this study show that climate change has the potential to alter hydrologic regimes in Northeast Kansas.
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Full textVan, Soesbergen Arnout. "Impacts of climate change on water resources of global dams." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2013. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/impacts-of-climate-change-on-water-resources-of-global-dams(0db278cb-2e29-411f-aa3f-0e7c431ba1ba).html.
Full textDeryng, Delphine. "Climate change and global crop yield : impacts, uncertainties and adaptation." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2014. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/50712/.
Full textDimitrova, Asya 1988. "Climate change and health in India : impacts and co-benefits." Doctoral thesis, TDX (Tesis Doctorals en Xarxa), 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/673181.
Full textThe first study in this PhD thesis demonstrated that both high and low ambient temperatures and heatwaves are risk factors for all-cause mortality in India, with mortality risk increasing more steeply at higher temperatures. The second and third study assessed some of the air pollution related health co-benefits and trade-offs from climate change mitigation in India. Findings suggested that projected reduction of ambient air pollution under the Paris Agreement targets can lengthen life expectancy at birth, reduce premature mortality and the number of stunted children in India by 2050 compared to the business-as-usual. However, higher fuel costs under Paris Agreement targets can lead to higher household air pollution, thus completely offsetting the benefits for child linear growth from improved ambient air quality. Complementing mitigation measures with end-of-pipe air quality control and policies to support access to clean cooking can maximise health co-benefits and reduce mitigation trade-offs, especially among the most disadvantaged.
Kinkese, Theresa. "Climate change impacts and farmers' responses in Chilanga District, Zambia." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27524.
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