Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Evolutionary economy'

In this paper we present the major theoretical and methodological pillars of evolutionary political economy. We proceed in four steps. Aesthetics: In chapter 1 the immediate appeal of evolutionary political economy as a specific scientific activity is described. Content: Chapter 2 explores the object of investigation of evolutionary political economy. Power: The third chapter develops the interplay between politics and economics. Methods: Chapter 4 focuses on the evolution of methods necessary for evolutionary political economy.

Os principais modelos de equilíbrio parcial e DSGE que estudam a dinâmica do investimento desconsideram questões centrais para a pesquisa desse tema e tem dificuldades em explicar resultados da literatura empírica. Defendemos que estudar a dinâmica do investimento como um sistema adaptativo complexo por meio de modelos de simulação baseados em agentes (ABMs) é uma alternativa promissora. Nessa dissertação motivamos, descrevemos, justificamos metodologicamente e construímos um ABM nos inspirando em modelos importantes da literatura e incorporamos às expectativas de demanda das firmas uma regra de revisão de otimismo e um mecanismo de interação em suas decisões de produção e investimento. Com isso, reproduzimos diversos fatos estilizados da literatura empírica e conseguimos testar os efeitos macroeconômicos de hipóteses teóricas relacionadas a fenômenos de contágio via confiança, motivações políticas e à reflexividade, presentes nas decisões das firmas. Nossos resultados colocam em dúvida a efetividade de mecanismos análogos à greve de investimentos, como meios dos empresários controlarem as políticas dos governos, mas confirmam que endogeneizar possíveis motivações políticas, ainda que subjetivas, no nível de confiança das firmas tem efeitos macroeconômicos substanciais. Ademais, nossos experimentos sugerem que i) tanto a evolução da produtividade, quanto dos salários reais são condições necessárias para o crescimento, ii) choques de confiança temporários tem efeitos de longo-prazo, iii) para que choques de pessimismo localizados contagiem a economia, eles precisam ser persistentes, iv) considerar o conceito de reflexividade tem consequências macroeconômicas importantes. Não encontramos evidências de que contrações fiscais do governo possam ser expansionistas, por meio de seus efeitos na confiança.
The main parcial equilibrium and DSGE models which study investment dynamics disregard core issues about this subject and have problems to explain results coming from the empirical literature. We argue that studying investment dynamics in a complex adaptive system by using Agent-Based Models is a promising alternative. In this work we motivate, describe, justify methodologically and build an ABM in line with important models from the literature and we incorporate to firms\' demand expectations an optimism revision rule and an interaction mechanism in their decisions to produce and invest. Thereby, we replicate many stylized facts from the empirical literature and we were able to test macroeconomic effects from theoretical hypothesis related to confidence-driven contagion phenomena, political motivation and reflexivity, present in firms\' decisions. Our results question the effectiveness of mechanisms analogous to the investment strikes, as a way for businessmen to control government policies, but confirm that endogenize possible political motivations, yet subjective, in the level of confidence of the firms has substantial macroeconomic effects. Furthermore, our experiments suggest that i) both productivity and real wages are necessary conditions for growth, ii) temporary confidence shocks have long-term effect, iii ) for localized shocks of pessimism, to contagion the economy, they need to be persistent, iv) consider the concept of reflexivity has important macroeconomic consequences. We find no evidence that government fiscal contractions can be expansionist, through their effects on confidence levels.

Since its beginnings, and more clearly since the mid 1800, Economics has been resting on the assumption that economic agents make rational decisions, maximizing their utility or well-being according to their own preferences and interests. The economic order resulting from that plurality of rational decisions is regarded as an efficient and Pareto-optimum one. Several authors have questioned the validity of those assumptions, and this has entailed a gradual transformation of the assumptions. This paper discusses the problems faced by the idea of a fully rational Homo economicus, the adjustments and defensive measures adopted by various tendencies within Economics to overcome those problems and counter various related theoretical and methodological criticisms. The paper also discusses more recent conceptions of economic reality that are at variance with the traditional view, especially those linked to behavioural, institutional and evolutionary Economics.
Desde sus inicios, y más claramente desde mediados del siglo XIX, la Economía se ha basado en el supuesto de que los agentes económicos toman decisiones racionales, maximizando su utilidad o bienestar de acuerdo a sus propias preferencias e intereses. El orden económico resultante de esa pluralidad de decisiones es considerado óptimo o eficiente. Diversos autores han cuestionado la validez de estos supuestos y ello ha motivado una gradual transformación de esos mismos supuestos. En este artículo se examinan los problemas que enfrenta la noción de un Homo economicus completamente racional, las correcciones y medidas defensivas adoptadas por distintas tendencias dentro del análisis económico a fin de resolver esos problemas y contrarrestar críticas teóricas y metodológicas, y el desarrollo reciente de algunas concepciones de la realidad económica que se apartan de aquella concepción tradicional, en especial las vinculadas a la economía conductual, a la economía institucional y a la economía evolucionaria.

From the mid-1970s and on, the contribution to air pollution of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides from gasoline passenger cars in the developed world has been reduced through co-evolution of regulation and commercial introduction of catalytic emission control technology, now part of hundreds of millions of cars, trucks and buses worldwide. This dissertation is a disaggregated study of the global introduction of catalytic emission control technology as a measure to reduce local air pollution. The introduction of the “three-way” catalyst for gasoline passenger cars is studied for four countries. Present innovation in diesel engine emission control is studied. Technological change is analyzed regarding the process of innovation, the innovation system and its stakeholders. Results are evaluated for implications for innovation and regulatory policy for coming environmental challenges. Automotive catalysis is an example of environmentally motivated innovation, including problem definition, public regulation, corporate market and non-market strategies, invention, variety, selection, technology transfer, mass diffusion and the ongoing coevolution of emission-abating policies and technical development. Common denominators for successful technological or market innovations is a participatory dialogue around structured and tiered regulatory roadmaps, international competition, support by international networks and conducive local public opinion. The near-global introduction of the three-way catalyst was complex and highly dependent on local context and conditions, suggesting that any general “global” innovation and regulation strategy to address present and future local or global problems must be reviewed with an understanding of local barriers and drivers for environmentally motivated innovation. Given the stakeholders and technical challenges of different technological regimes to mitigate climate change, it is concluded that increased fuel efficiency and the introduction of plug-in hybrids are possible trajectories for sustainable mobility.
Sedan mitten av 1970-talet har utsläppen av kolmonoxid, kolväten och kväveoxider från bensindrivna personbilar reducerats genom samordnad utveckling av lagstiftning och kommersiell introduktion av katalytisk avgasrening, som nu är en del av hundratals miljoner bilar, lastbilar och bussar över hela jorden. Denna avhandling är en disaggregerad studie av den i det närmaste globala introduktionen av katalytisk avgasrening för fordon, som åtgärd för att minska lokala luftföroreningar. Introduktionen av ”trevägskatalysatorn” för bensinbilar studeras i fyra länder. Pågående innovation för dieselavgasrening studeras. Teknisk förändring analyseras med avseende på innovationsprocessen, innovationssystemet och dess respektive intressenter. Resultaten används för att analysera konsekvenser för styrmedel för att åtgärda miljöproblem i vardande. Fordonskatalys är ett exempel på en miljömotiverad innovation, inklusive problemdefinition, lagkrav, företagens marknadsstrategier och marknadspåverkan, innovation, utbud och urval, tekniköverföring, storskalig spridning samt den fortlöpande ömsesidiga utvecklingen av teknik och policy för att reducera emissioner. Gemensamma nämnare för exempel på lyckosamma introduktionsprocesser är en inkluderande dialog kring etappvisa lagkrav, internationell konkurrens, stöd och samarbete i internationella nätverk samt en tydlig opinion för förändring. Introduktionen av trevägskatalysatorn var och är komplex och beroende av lokal kontext och regionala villkor. Kommande ”globala” teknikförändringar måste utvecklas med en förståelse för varje enskild nation eller marknad och dess specifika barriärer och drivkrafter för miljömotiverad innovation. Givet intressenter och tekniska utmaningar i olika teknologiska regimer med potential att reducera klimatförändringar är ökad bränsleeffektivisering och introduktion av s.k. plug-in-hybrider möjliga utvecklingsvägar för hållbar mobilitet.
Desde los años 70 y adelante, la contribución a la polución atmosférica de emisiones de monóxido de carbono, hidrocarburos y óxidos de nitrógeno proveniente de la combustión de los autos a gasolina, ha sido mitigado, por co-evolución entre regulación e introducción comercial de sistemas catalíticos de control de emisiones. Esos sistemas ahora forman parte de cientos de millones de autos, camiones y buses en todo el mundo. La presente tesis es un estudio desagregado de la introducción cerca de global de sistemas de control de emisiones catalíticos, como medida para reducir la contaminación atmosférica local. Se examina el proceso de introducción del convertidor catalítico “de tres vías” para autos a gasolina en cuatro países. Se estudia la innovación presente en el área de sistemas de control de emisiones de motores diesel. El cambio tecnológico es analizado viendo el proceso y el sistema de innovación y los distintos grupos de interés. Los resultados se usan para analizar las implicaciones en cuanto a innovación y política de regulación para enfrentar los desafíos medioambientales actuales. Catálisis automotriz es un ejemplo de innovación motivado ambientalmente, incluyendo definición del problema, regulación pública, estratégicas corporativas dentro y fuera de mercado, variedad, selección, transferencia de tecnología, difusión masiva y la coevolución continuo entre política de reducción de emisiones y desarrollo tecnológico. Denominaciones comunes para innovaciones exitosas, tecnológicas o de mercado, son un diálogo dinámico sobre planes de regulación estructurados en etapas, competición internacional, apoyo y coordinación de redes internacionales, y opinión local beneficiario. La introducción global del catalizador de tres vías fue compleja y altamente relacionada con el contexto local y condiciones locales, sugiriendo que estrategias “globales” de innovación y regulación para tratar los desafíos de hoy y mañana deben ser diseñados con entendimiento de factores locales a favor y en contra para innovación ambientalmente motivado. Dado los grupos de interés, los desafíos tecnológicos y las trayectorias presentes en el área de mitigación del cambio climático, se concluye que el aumento de uso eficiente de combustible y la introducción de vehículos híbridos enchufables (plug- in) son alternativas viables para el transporte sustentable.
(japanese) 1970年代の中頃から今日に至るまで，先進国においては，自動車触媒技術の導入と規制との相互作用によって、ガソリン乗用車から排出される一酸化炭素CO，炭化水素HC，窒素酸化物NOxによる大気汚染への寄与率は減少している。現在では、この自動車触媒はディーゼル乗用車、トラックやバスなどを含めて何億台もの自動車で使われている。 この論文は，各地域での大気汚染を解決する手段としての触媒の地球規模での導入に関する調査研究である。ガソリン乗用車への三元触媒導入の過程を４か国比較で行うと共に，現在取り組まれているディーゼル機関の排出ガス制御についても研究した。これらの例の技術革新について、その内容を、技術革新に係る利害関係者（ステークスホルダー）の観点から技術の変革について分析した。これらの結果から，将来の環境問題に対応するためのイノベーションと規制に関する政策への示唆を行なった。 自動車用触媒は，問題定義，規制，市場原理に基づくないしは市場原理に基づかない戦略，開発，多様性，選択，技術移転，技術普及，そして今もなお進化する排出ガス削減に関する規制（政策）と技術開発との相乗効果，等々を含んだ「環境保護に起因する技術革新」の良い例である。 技術革新、および普及の成功例に共通していることは， 1. 構造的かつ段階的な「目標へのロードマップ」を巡る相方向の会話， 2. 国際競争力， 3. 国際的ネットワークによるサポート， 4. 地域社会に支持された意見, 等が挙げられる。 三元触媒の導入はほぼ全世界に及ぶが，その過程は複雑で、地域（国）の事情に強く依存する。つまり、現在または未来の、各国（地域的）または地球規模の問題に焦点を当てた「世界的」技術革新や規制戦略は、地域よって異なる障害の存在や、環境保護の視点に立った技術革新を推進する潜在力への理解なしには成り立たないことを意味するのである。 気候変動を緩和するための様々な技術体系からの技術的挑戦および関係者（ステークスホルダー）の意見を考慮すると，燃費向上とプラグイン・ハイブリッドの導入が，交通部門における持続可能な発展への道のりであると言える。
QC 20100517

We use an agent-based model to investigate the interdependent dynamics between individual agency and emergent socioeconomic structure, leading to institutional change in a generic way. Our model simulates the emergence and exit of institutional units, understood as generic governed social structures. We show how endogenized trust and exogenously given leader authority influences institutional change, i.e., diversity in institutional life-cycles. It turns out that these governed institutions (de)structure in cyclical patterns dependent on the overall evolution of trust in the artificial society, while at the same time, influencing this evolution by supporting social learning. Simulation results indicate three scenarios of institutional life-cycles. Institutions may, (1) build up very fast and freeze the artificial society in a stable but fearful pattern (ordered system); (2) exist only for a short time, leading to a very trusty society (highly fluctuating system); and (3) structure in cyclical patterns over time and support social learning due to cumulative causation of societal trust (complex system).

This thesis argued that-sole reliance by government on the micro-economic paradigm. as the rationale for intervening in the marketplace results in too narrow an approach to consumer policy and a lack of appreciation for the dynamic and relational aspects of the consumer policy process. An integration of select constructs from the political economy and network paradigms contributed to the development of a macro-relational consumer policy framework. The network approach provides a relational perspective while the political economy paradigm provides a macro approach to widening consumer policy theory. Together, they offer a macro-relational perspective to compliment the micro-economic approach. The investigator suggests that the computerization of the Canadian payment system represents a change in the technological sphere of the macro policy environment. This change challenges the marketplace interests of the consumer policy network constituents (secondary policy environment). The stakeholders affected by this change coalesce into a policy community to balance respective interests. This primary policy environment, evolutionary in nature (internal policy activity, then dyadic, multidyadic, and triadic), will exhibit varying patterns of stakeholder interaction, relationship development and network dynamics. Propositions developed, to explain the evolutionary dynamics of the policy community guided the content analysis, the case study and the network analysis. Relational data (matrices and graphs) profiled the chronological maps of the relationships of the aggregate, constituent and dyadic sets of stakeholders. A multi-layered network analysis revealed an evolutionary process and a policy community which varied on several interaction dimensions (frequency, directedness, durability, role perception, intensity) and network dimensions (size, density, connectedness, cohesiveness, knittedness, stability). To mirror parallel initiatives in complimentary disciplines, stakeholders and future macro-relational consumer policy researchers are challenged to embrace the powerful network/political economy perspective to profit from stimulating theoretical and pragmatic insights into the complex, dynamic consumer policy process.

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mathematics, 2015.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 155-174).
The conflict between rational models of economic behavior and their systematic deviations, often referred to as behavioral economics, is one of the most hotly debated issues in social sciences. This thesis reconciles the two opposing perspectives by applying evolutionary principles to economic behavior and deriving implications that cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins. In the context of a binary-choice model, we first show that risk aversion emerges via natural selection if reproductive risk is "systematic", i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation. The degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. More generally, irrational behaviors are not just mere divergence from rationality, but seeds necessary for successfully coping with environmental transformations. Furthermore, there is an optimal degree of irrationality in the population depending on the degree of environmental stochasticity. When applied to evolutionary biology, we show that what appears to be group selection may, in fact, simply be the consequence of natural selection occurring in stochastic environments with "systematic" risks. Those individuals with highly correlated risks will appear to form "groups", even if their actions are totally autonomous, mindless, and, prior to selection, uniformly randomly distributed in the population. Evolutionary principles can also be used to model the dynamics of financial markets. In a multiperiod model of the contagion of investment ideas, we show that heterogeneous investment styles can coexist in the long run, implying a wider variation of diverse strategies compared to traditional theories. These results may provide new insights to the survival of a wide range of hedge funds. In a model that investors maximize their relative wealth, the initial wealth plays a critical role in determining how the optimal behavior deviates from the Kelly Criterion, regardless of whether the investor is myopic or maximizing the infinite-horizon wealth.
by Ruixun Zhang.
Ph. D.

The evolutionary economic geography of climate change is concerned with the processes by which the landscapes of greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to climate change are transformed from within over time. Unlike neoclassical economics, evolutionary economic geography is interested in how economic change is driven by innovation and shaped by structural, historical, and contextual factors at different scales. This thesis articulates an evolutionary economic geography perspective on three debates: (1) What factors influence human systems’ capacity to adapt to climate change, and how can these factors be assessed? (2) What forces drive and inhibit economic change towards low-carbon economies, and how should governments induce and manage such shifts? (3) What role should climate finance play in promoting developing countries’ shifts to low-emitting and climate-resilient economies, and how should it be managed? The thesis includes five academic papers. The first reviews the literature on vulnerability and adaptation. It argues that the adaptive capacity of human systems is constrained by structural and historical factors, and that the rich data necessary to identify these factors can only be obtained through qualitative research methods. The next two papers offer case studies from the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation and Policy Development project, which assess the adaptive capacity of Soufriere, Saint Lucia and Whitehouse, Jamaica, respectively. The fourth paper examines the mechanics of three low-carbon shifts in Brazil: the diffusion of no-till agriculture, the decrease in the deforestation rate in the Amazon, and the growth of the ethanol biofuel industry. It found that the driving forces behind each of the shifts were far more varied and complex than the price-based market dynamics analysed in neoclassical economics. The final paper argues that climate finance will need to perform a variety of functions beyond attracting low-carbon private investment. It concludes that the institutional architecture governing climate finance should enable direct access to national governments to incentivise them to implement sustainable innovation policy regimes.

This thesis contains three essays in evolutionary game theory. In the first chapter, we study the impact of switching costs on the long run outcome in 2X2 coordination games played in the circular city model of local interactions. We find that for low levels of switching costs, the risk dominant convention is the unique long run equilibrium. For intermediate levels of switching costs the set of long run equilibria contains the risk dominant convention but may also contain conventions that are not risk dominant. For high levels of switching costs also nonmonomorphic states will be included in the set of LRE. We study the impact of location heterogeneity on neighborhood segregation in the one-dimensional Schelling residential model in the second chapter. We model location heterogeneity by introducing an advantageous node, in which a player’s utility is impartial to the composition of her neighborhood. We find that when every player interacts with two neighbors, one advantageous node in the circular city will lead to a result that segregation is no longer the unique LRE. When players interact with more neighbors, more advantageous nodes are necessary to obtain the same result. In the third chapter, we consider a model of social coordination and network formation, where players of two groups play a 2X2 coordination game when connected. Players in one group actively decide on whom they play with and on the action in the game, while players in the other group decide on the action in the game only. We find that if either group’s population size is small in comparison to the linking restriction, all players will choose the risk dominant equilibrium, while when both groups are sufficiently large in population, the players of two groups will coordinate on the payoff dominant action.

Grounded in an evolutionary approach to environmental sustainability, this thesis adds an understanding of the dynamics of the greening of the economy, particularly highlighting the neglected demand side aspect of the greening of markets. Since the emergence of green food markets in the 1980s and 1990s, this study investigates the role of retail groups in the development of the green food market in Denmark and Brazil. Accordingly, it investigates the rate and the direction of the greening of this process in those markets as well as the convergence and the impact of retailers\' strategizing in the grocery sector. Using the dynamic capabilities framework, it examines why, how and when the strategizing, performance and competitiveness of grocery retail groups co-evolved with the development of the Danish and Brazilian green food markets. This thesis contributes innovatively to the literature on at least three more aspects. Firstly, it advances the existing literature in adding combined qualitative and quantitative longitudinal firm-level data, which is analysed over time through a proposed set of macro (market-level), meso (sectoral-level), and micro (firm-level) dimensions\' indicators of green market analysis. Secondly, it provides the perspectives of the interviewed retail groups and market support stakeholders operating in the Danish and Brazilian green food markets. Thirdly, it provides an estimate of the green food sales in the Brazilian retail sector. Even though this thesis concludes that major retail groups in Denmark and Brazil were not the pioneers in the green food market, their collaboration with specialized organic food producers and market support stakeholders were rather central in making the green food market a viable business case. These retail groups were key players in the evolution of the green food market as they have played a vital role in scaling up the Danish and Brazilian green food markets to higher turnover levels. Furthermore, these retailers sensed the market potential for the green foods in the 1980s and 1990s, and particularly in the 2000s and onwards, and through strategizing have been able to size and transform the green food market in Brazil and Denmark. These retailers\' strategizing and related capabilities building have been key to the innovative changes in their business models, which have become markedly greener in this period due to their role in the development of the Danish and Brazilian green food markets. Finally, as Denmark is at a higher level of green food turnover than Brazil, it suggests a more mature stage of its green economy.
Seguindo uma abordagem evolucionária para sustentabilidade ambiental, esta tese agrega uma compreensão das dinâmicas de esverdeamento da economia, particularmente destacando o aspecto negligenciado da demanda no esverdeamento dos mercados. Desde o surgimento dos mercados de alimentos verdes nas décadas de 1980 and 1990, este estudo investiga o papel dos principais grupos varejistas no desenvolvimento do mercado de alimentos verdes na Dinamarca e no Brasil. Dessa maneira, a taxa e a direção do processo de esverdeamento nesses mercados são investigados, bem como a convergência e o impacto da estratégia dos varejistas no setor supermercadista. Usando o quadro de análise das capacidades dinâmicas, esta tese investiga o por que, como e quando as estratégias, performance e competitividade dos grupos de varejo co-evoluíram com o desenvolvimento dos mercados de alimentos verdes dinamarquês e brasileiro. Ainda, este estudo contribui de forma inovadora em pelo menos mais três aspectos. Em primeiro lugar, avança-se a literatura existente complementando-a com dados longitudinais qualitativos e quantitativos ao nível da empresa, que são analisados ao longo do tempo através da proposição de um conjunto de indicadores das dimensões macro (nível de mercado), meso (nível setorial) e micro (nível da empresa) para análise do mercado verde. Em segundo lugar, prove-se as perspectivas dos varejistas e stakeholders de suporte do mercado entrevistados, que atuam nos mercados de alimentos verdes dinamarquês e brasileiro. Em terceiro lugar, estima-se o volume de vendas dos alimentos verdes do setor varejista brasileiro. Embora esta tese conclua que os principais grupos varejistas na Dinamarca e no Brasil não foram os pioneiros do mercado de alimentos verdes, estes em colabolação com produtores especializados em alimentos orgânicos e stakeholders de suporte do mercado foram centrais para tornar o mercado de alimentos verdes um caso de negócios viável. Tais grupos de varejo tiveram um papel decisivo no aumento da escala do volume de negócios dos mercados de alimentos verdes dinamarquês e brasileiro. Ademais, esses varejistas sentiram o potencial do mercado de produtos alimentares verdes já nas décadas de 1980 e 1990, e particularmente da década de 2000 em diante; e conseguiram através de estratégias específicas dimensionar e transformar o mercado de alimentos verdes na Dinamarca e no Brasil. A elaboração de estratégias e a construção de capacidades específicas desses varejistas foram fundamentais para as mudanças inovadoras em seus modelos de negócios, que se tornaram claramente mais verdes neste período devido ao papel deles no desenvolvimento dos mercados de alimentos verdes dinamarquês e brasileiro. Finalmente, como a Dinamarca está em um nível mais alto do que o Brasil no consumo de alimentos verdes, isto sugere um estágio mais maduro da economia verde dinamarquesa.

We discuss the implications of nonlinearity in competitive models of optimal endogenous growth. Departing from a simple representative agent setup with convex risk premium and investment adjustment costs, we define an open economy dynamic optimization problem and show that the optimal control solution is given by an autonomous nonlinear vector field in <3 with multiple equilibria and no optimal stable solutions. We give a thorough analytical and numerical analysis of this system qualitative dynamics and show the existence of local singularities, such as fold (saddle-node), Hopf and Fold-Hopf bifurcations of equilibria. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of global nonlinear phenomena. We focus on dynamic scenarios arising in the vicinity of Fold-Hopf bifurcations and demonstrate the existence of global dynamic phenomena arising from the complex organization of the invariant manifolds of this system. We then consider this setup in a non-cooperative differential game environment, where asymmetric players choose open loop no feedback strategies and dynamics are coupled by an aggregate risk premium mechanism. When only convex risk premium is considered, we show that these games have a specific state-separability property, where players have optimal, but naive, beliefs about the evolution of the state of the game. We argue that the existence of optimal beliefs in this fashion, provides a unique framework to study the implications of the self-confirming equilibrium (SCE) hypothesis in a dynamic game setup. We propose to answer the following question. Are players able to concur on a SCE, where their expectations are self-fulfilling? To evaluate this hypothesis we consider a simple conjecture. If beliefs bound the state-space of the game asymptotically and strategies are Lipschitz continuous, then it is possible to describe SCE solutions and evaluate the qualitative properties of equilibrium. If strategies are not smooth, which is likely in environments where belief-based solutions require players to learn a SCE, then asymptotic dynamics can be evaluated numerically as a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We discuss this topic for a class of games where players lack the relevant information to pursue their optimal strategies and have to base their decisions on subjective beliefs. We set up one of the games proposed as a multi-objective optimization problem under uncertainty and evaluate its asymptotic solution as a multi-criteria HMM.We show that under a simple linear learning regime there is convergence to a SCE and portray strong emergence phenomena as a result of persistent uncertainty.

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és comprendre com i per què les destinacions turístiques es transformen amb el temps, tot posant especial atenció a l’estudi de les dinàmiques del lloc en el seu conjunt en comptes de simplificar l’anàlisi a l'evolució de l'activitat turística, una de les discussions predominants entorn dels models evolutius tradicionals. Amb aquesta finalitat, es desenvolupa un model analític inspirat en avenços contemporanis en el camp de la geografia econòmica, més concretament, en l’àmbit de la geografia econòmica evolutiva (EEG) i la geografia econòmica relacional (REG). Des d’aquest enfocament, l'evolució de les destinacions es concep com un procés complex i en continu canvi que està influenciat per les característiques específiques i la interacció de múltiples forces en termes d'agència (human agency), contextualitat (contextuality) i dependència de la trajectòria (path dependence). Tot centrant l'anàlisi empíric en els catalitzadors específics que van tenir incidència en la definició de la trajectòria evolutiva de la Costa Daurada centre des de la dècada de 1980, la investigació s’orienta, en primer lloc, a estudiar els efectes de la interacció dels actors i els fluxos de coneixement en el comportament evolutiu de les destinacions (human agency). En segon lloc, la capacitat d'adaptació de les destinacions davant les dinàmiques de canvi local i global (contextuality). En tercer lloc, els efectes positius i negatius a llarg termini que es deriven de les decisions i esdeveniments ocorreguts en el passat (path dependence).
El objetivo de esta tesis es comprender cómo y por qué los destinos turísticos se transforman con el tiempo, poniendo especial atención al estudio de las dinámicas del lugar en su conjunto en vez de simplificar el análisis a la evolución de la actividad turística, una de las discusiones predominantes en torno a los modelos evolutivos tradicionales. Con este fin, se desarrolla un modelo analítico inspirado en avances contemporáneos en el campo de la geografía económica, más concretamente, en el ámbito de la geografía económica evolutiva (EEG) y la geografía económica relacional (REG). Desde este enfoque, la evolución de los destinos se concibe como un proceso complejo y en continuo cambio que está influenciado por las características específicas y la interacción de múltiples fuerzas en términos de agencia (human agency), contextualidad (contextuality) y dependencia de la trayectoria (path dependence). Centrando el análisis empírico en los catalizadores específicos que tuvieron incidencia en la definición de la trayectoria evolutiva de la Costa Dorada centro desde la década de 1980, la investigación se orienta, en primer lugar, a estudiar los efectos de la interacción los actores y los flujos de conocimiento en el comportamiento evolutivo de los destinos (human agency). En segundo lugar, la capacidad de adaptación de los destinos ante las dinámicas de cambio local y global (contextuality). En tercer lugar, los efectos positivos y negativos a largo plazo que se derivan de las decisiones y acontecimientos ocurridos en el pasado (path dependence).
The aim of this thesis is to understand how and why destinations change over time, putting attention to the dynamics of place instead of the evolution of tourism activity, one of the prevalent discussions around traditional evolutionary models. To achieve this, it develops an analytical model drawing inspiration on contemporary advances in economic geography – i.e. evolutionary economic geography (EEG) and relational economic geography (REG). From such an approach destination evolution is conceived as a complex ongoing process shaped by the specific characteristics and interplay of multiple forces in terms of human agency, contextuality and path dependence. By focusing on the analysis of specific catalysts that shaped the evolutionary trajectory of central Costa Daurada (Catalonia) since the 1980s, the exploratory research conducted studies, first, the effects of stakeholders’ interaction and knowledge flows on the evolutionary performance of destinations (human agency). Second, the adaptive capacity of destinations in front of dynamics of local and global change (contextuality). And third, the enabling and constraining long-term effects of decisions and events occurred in the past (path dependence). The methodological design of the empirical research comprises a combination of qualitative – interviews and documentary analysis – and quantitative – social network analysis – techniques.

This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static or dynamic way, and describe economic processes at a high level of aggregation. As a consequence, they typically fail to account for the complexity of social interactions and other behavioural responses of consumers and producers to disasters, which may affect the macroeconomic impacts of floods. Employing evolutionary principles and methods, such as agent-based modelling, may help to address some of the shortcomings of current macro-economic models. We explore and discuss the implications of applying consumer and producer heterogeneity, bounded rationality, network effects, social and technological learning, co-evolution and adaptive policy-making concepts into existing economic frameworks for the assessment of macro-economic impacts of floods. (authors' abstract)

Long run economic growth potential depends on the increase in the efficiency of resource utilization in the economy through improvements in the underlying technological capabilities. Recent economic growth slow-down, and in particularly the substantial decline in long-run productivity growth rates in the US, raises a question regarding the possible slowdown in the underlying technological growth. I set out to evaluate this question by examining the change in the potential social benefits from technology over the period of 1944-2000 in the US. I use knowledge spillovers generated by cohorts of patented innovations as proxy to the social benefits generated by those cohorts. These can be estimated using the distribution parameters for the number of citations received by patents in a cohort. The data for the work is a newly constructed patent citations database of all US patent data from 1920-2006 with full citations from 1947 on.

The first chapter introduces the new data and provides an in-depth analysis of the time-trend of its various statistical characteristics. The exposed non-stationary distribution parameter for the citation data impedes its use in the time-series analysis for extracting the innovative quality trend. A de-trending treatment to correct for this non-stationary behavior is proposed and applied.

The second chapter pursues the innovative quality analysis over the period. My attempts to use the Jaffe-Trajtenberg model for knowledge spillovers with the expanded data period strained some of the model's underlying assumptions to a breaking point. Instead, I introduce a new model for estimating the intensity of such spillovers (the innovative quality) based on the Log-Normal distribution of patent values as measured from their spillover effects (received citations). I compute the innovative output quality for annual cohorts of patents in narrowly defined technological fields over the period of 1937-1994. The results show a decline in the traditional mechanical and chemical technologies quality starting in the early 1960s. The modern technologies associated with electronics, ICT and medicine flourished until the early to mid 1980s,after which their quality declined as well.

The last chapter examines the evolutionary path of a transformative technology using the ICT over the period of 1944 to 1994. The analysis uses the full citation network for US patents over the period of 1947-2006 and applies network analysis techniques to identify main technological trajectories for the key technological fields comprising the ICT. The pattern of technological inflows and outflows for each cohort on the trajectory provides the evolutionary timeline and technology inter-dependencies. These demonstrate the underlying process of building the essential skills and complementary devices and techniques which took place in the first 25 years of the ICT evolutionary path. The fast pace of that evolutionary path and lack of significant gaps in the time-line suggest that even under optimal conditions of existing market demand for new technologies (e.g. defense and space), it takes a new, transformative technology close to half a century to deliver its productivity gains.

Orientadora : Profª. Drª. Adriana Sbicca Fernandes
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Econômico. Defesa: Curitiba, 27/03/2017
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Resumo: A economia evolucionária é uma abordagem bem estabelecida nas Ciências Econômicas que apresentou várias teorias para explicar os mais diversos fenômenos econômicos. No entanto, o lado da demanda em suas teorias é relativamente pouco desenvolvido. Com o objetivo avançar teoricamente as discussões sobre o lado da demanda na economia evolucionária, esta pesquisa investiga o comportamento do consumo a partir de uma perspectiva econômica evolucionária. Hipóteses típicas da economia evolucionária que podem embasar uma teoria do consumidor evolucionária são identificadas. Com o intuito de superar algumas dificuldades na modelagem de modelos de consumo evolucionário, é introduzida uma abordagem na literatura da psicologia que poderia contribuir para o avanço das teorias da economia evolutiva no consumo: o programa de pesquisa em heurísticas rápidas e frugais (Gigerenzer e Selten, 2001). Nessa abordagem, inspirada pelo conceito racionalidade limitada de Herbert Simon, mecanismos cognitivos chamados "heurísticas" desempenham um papel importante na explicação da tomada de decisão humana. Depois de analisar as investigações da economia evolucionária sobre o comportamento do consumidor e a abordagem de heurísticas rápidas e frugais, desenvolvemos um modelo baseado em agentes que apresenta os principais pressupostos identificados nessas abordagens. Propomos uma estrutura de modelo baseada em Valente (2012) para analisar uma evolução de um mercado de bens semiduráveis com agentes que utilizam diferentes estratégias de decisão (i.e., heurísticas) que podem mudar dependendo da estrutura do ambiente em cada fase do desenvolvimento desse mercado. Tendo desenvolvido o modelo adequado, as implicações da inclusão de três heurísticas (Take-the-best, Tallying e Imitate-the-majority) na estrutura de mercado e dinâmica são investigadas através de uma série de simulações computacionais. Com base nessas simulações, é possível dizer que os diferentes processos de decisão heurística afetam: a dinâmica da evolução do mercado, o desempenho das empresas medido pelas vendas e conseqüentemente a concentração do mercado. Esta dissertação contribui para a compreensão das microfundações do lado da demanda da economia evolucionária. Concluise que as heurísticas simples usadas pelos consumidores para decidir qual produto eles vão comprar pode melhorar a compreensão dos economistas evolucionários em relação aos microfundamentos que determinam a demanda e subjazem fenômenos como inovação, dependência do caminho, aprendizagem do consumidor e formação de rotinas. Palavras-chave: Economia evolucionária. Teoria do consumidor. Racionalidade limitada. Programa de pesquisa em heurísticas rápidas e frugais. Modelos baseados em agentes. Estruturas de mercado.
Abstract: Evolutionary economics is as well established approach in economics that has presented various theories to explain the most diverse economic phenomena. Nevertheless, we argue in this dissertation that the demand side of the theory is underdeveloped. In order to provide insights into demand side theorizing in evolutionary economics, this research investigates the consumption behavior in an evolutionary economics perspective. I identify typical assumptions in evolutionary economics in which a consumer theory may be built. In order to overcome some difficulties in modeling evolutionary consumption models, I introduce an approach in the psychological literature that could contribute to advance the evolutionary economics theories in consumption: the fast-and-frugal heuristics program (Gigerenzer and Selten, 2001). In this approach, which was inspired by Herbert Simon's bounded rationality, the cognitive mechanisms called heuristics play a major role in explaining human decision-making. After reviewing the evolutionary economics investigations into consumer behavior and the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach, I develop an agent based model featuring the main assumptions identified in each of these approaches. I propose a model framework - based on Valente (2012) - to analyze a semi-durable market evolution with agents using different decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) that can change depending on the structure of the environment in each stage of the market development. Having developed an appropriate model, I investigate the implications of the inclusion of three heuristics (Take-the-best, Tallying and Imitate-the-majority) in the market structure and dynamics through a series of computer simulations. Based on these simulations, I confirm that the different heuristics decision process affect the dynamics of the market evolution, the firms' performance measured by sales and consequently the market concentration. This dissertation contributes to the understanding of the microfoundations of the demand side of evolutionary economics. I conclude that simple heuristics strategies used by the consumers to decide which product they will purchase may enhance the comprehension of evolutionary economists of the demand-side drives that underlie phenomena like innovation, path dependency, consumer learning, and routine formation. Key-words: Evolutionary economics. Consumer theory. Bounded rationality. Fast-and-frugal heuristics research program. Agent-based models. Market structure.

Optimal generation scheduling attempts to minimise the cost of power production while satisfying the various operation constraints and physical limitations on the power system components. The thermal generation scheduling problem can be considered as a power system control problem acting over different time frames. The unit commitment phase determines the optimum pattern for starting up and shutting down the generating units over the designated scheduling period, while the economic dispatch phase is concerned with allocation of the load demand among the on-line generators. In a hydrothermal system the optimal scheduling of generation involves the allocation of generation among the hydro electric and thermal plants so as to minimise total operation costs of thermal plants while satisfying the various constraints on the hydraulic and power system network. This thesis reports on the development of genetic algorithm computation techniques for the solution of the short term generation scheduling problem for power systems having both thermal and hydro units. A comprehensive genetic algorithm modelling framework for thermal and hydrothermal scheduling problems using two genetic algorithm models, a canonical genetic algorithm and a deterministic crowding genetic algorithm, is presented. The thermal scheduling modelling framework incorporates unit minimum up and down times, demand and reserve constraints, cooling time dependent start up costs, unit ramp rates, and multiple unit operating states, while constraints such as multiple cascade hydraulic networks, river transport delays and variable head hydro plants, are accounted for in the hydraulic system modelling. These basic genetic algorithm models have been enhanced, using quasi problem decomposition, and hybridisation techniques, resulting in efficient generation scheduling algorithms. The results of the performance of the algorithms on small, medium and large scale power system problems is presented and compared with other conventional scheduling techniques.

The use of electricity in 21st century living has been firmly established throughout most of the world, correspondingly the infrastructure for production and delivery of electricity to consumers has matured and stabilised. However, due to recent technical and environmental–political developments, the electricity infrastructure worldwide is undergoing major restructuring. The forces driving this reorganisation are a complex interplay of technical, environmental, economic and political factors. The general trend of the reorganisation is a dis–aggregation of the previously integrated functions of generation, transmission and distribution, together with the establishment of competitive markets, primarily in generation, to replace previous regulated monopolistic utilities. To ensure reliable and cost effective electricity supply to consumers it is necessary to have an accurate picture of the expected generation in terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of prices and volumes. Previously this information was obtained by the regulated utility using technical studies such as centrally planned unit–commitment and economic–dispatch. However, in the new deregulated market environment such studies have diminished applicability and limited accuracy since generation assets are generally autonomous and subject to market forces. With generation outcomes governed by market mechanisms, to have an accurate picture of expected generation in the new electricity supply industry, it is necessary to complement traditional studies with new studies of market equilibrium and stability. Models and solution methods have been developed and refined for many markets, however they cannot be directly applied to the generation market due to the unique nature of electricity, having high inelastic demand, low storage capability and distinct transportation requirements. Intensive effort is underway to formulate solutions and models that specifically reflect the unique characteristics of the generation market. Various models have been proposed including game theory, stochastic and agent–based systems. Similarly there is a diverse range of solution methods including, Monte–Carlo simulations, linear–complimentary and quadratic programming. These approaches have varying degrees of generality, robustness and accuracy, some being better in certain aspects but weaker in others. This thesis formulates a new general model for the generation market based on the Cournot game, it makes no conjectures about producers’ behaviour and assumes that all electricity produced is immediately consumed. The new formulation characterises producers purely by their cost curves, which is only required to be piece–wise differentiable, and allows consumers’ characteristics to remain unspecified. The formulation can determine dynamic equilibrium and multiple equilibria of markets with single and multiple consumers and producers. Additionally stability concepts for the new market equilibrium is also developed to provide discrimination for dynamic equilibrium and to enable the structural stability of the market to be assessed. Solutions of the new formulation are evaluated by the use of evolutionary computation, which is a guided stochastic search paradigm that mimics the operation of biological evolution to iteratively produce a population of solutions. Evolutionary computation is employed as it is adept at finding multiple solutions for underconstrained systems, such as that of the new market formulation. Various enhancements to significantly improve the performance of the algorithms and simplify its application are developed. The concept of convergence potential of a population is introduced together with a system for the controlled extraction of such potential to accelerate the algorithm’s convergence and improve its accuracy and robustness. A new constraint handling technique for linear constraints that preserves the solution’s diversity is also presented together with a coevolutionary solution method for the multiple consumers and producers market. To illustrate the new electricity market formulation and its evolutionary computation solution methods, the equilibrium and stability of a test market with one consumer and thirteen thermal generators with valve point losses is examined. The case of a multiple consumer market is not simulated, though the formulation and solution methods for this case is included. The market solutions obtained not only confirms previous findings thus validating the new approach, but also includes new results yet to be verified by future studies. Techniques for market designers, regulators and other system planners in utilising the new market solutions are also given. In summary, the market formulation and solution method developed shows great promise in determining expected generation in a deregulated environment.

The Economic Load Dispatch (ELD) problem is an optimisation task concerned with how electricity generating stations can meet their customers’ demands while minimising under/over-generation, and minimising the operational costs of running the generating units. In the conventional or Static Economic Load Dispatch (SELD), an optimal solution is sought in terms of how much power to produce from each of the individual generating units at the power station, while meeting (predicted) customers’ load demands. With the inclusion of a more realistic dynamic view of demand over time and associated constraints, the Dynamic Economic Load Dispatch (DELD) problem is an extension of the SELD, and aims at determining the optimal power generation schedule on a regular basis, revising the power system configuration (subject to constraints) at intervals during the day as demand patterns change. Both the SELD and DELD have been investigated in the recent literature with modern heuristic optimisation approaches providing excellent results in comparison with classical techniques. However, these problems are defined under the assumption of a regulated electricity market, where utilities tend to share their generating resources so as to minimise the total cost of supplying the demanded load. Currently, the electricity distribution scene is progressing towards a restructured, liberalised and competitive market. In this market the utility companies are privatised, and naturally compete with each other to increase their profits, while they also engage in bidding transactions with their customers. This formulation is referred to as: Bid-Based Dynamic Economic Load Dispatch (BBDELD). This thesis proposes a Smart Evolutionary Algorithm (SEA), which combines a standard evolutionary algorithm with a “smart mutation” approach. The so-called ‘smart’ mutation operator focuses mutation on genes contributing most to costs and penalty violations, while obeying operational constraints. We develop specialised versions of SEA for each of the SELD, DELD and BBDELD problems, and show that this approach is superior to previously published approaches in each case. The thesis also applies the approach to a new case study relevant to Nigerian electricity deregulation. Results on this case study indicate that our SEA is able to deal with larger scale energy optimisation tasks.

Extensive research has documented the sex differences that exist in men’s and women’s mate preferences. Specifically, men desire the physical attractiveness of a potential mate more than women do, and women desire the status and resources of a potential mate more than men do. These sex differences in mate preferences are often attributed to evolutionary and/or social-economic origins. However, to date, research has only examined the different factors of social-economic theory independently without acknowledging the potential interactive effects between these variables. Therefore, the aim of this dissertation was to explore, for the first time, the individual and conjunctive effects of the different elements of social-economic theory (gender roles and socio-economic status) on characteristics men and women consider a necessity in long-term and short-term mates. To explicitly study characteristics men and women consider a necessity in a mate; the dissertation employed the trade-off methodology proposed by Li, Bailey, Kenrick, and Linsenmeier (2002). This methodology is a mate budget designed to examine the characteristics men and women consider a necessity (initially important) in a mate, and the characteristics men and women consider a luxury in a mate (the characteristics that become important once necessities are satisfied). As this methodology is relatively novel, to determine the validity of this measure the aim of Experiment 1 was to replicate the studies of Li and colleagues (2002) and Li and Kenrick (2006), and assess if the same characteristics men and women considered necessities in both long-term and short-term relationships could be established. Participants (N = 1635) were recruited from an Australian University campus and the wider community, and completed an online mate budget questionnaire. Results supported Li and Kenrick (2006), showing that both men and women consider the physical attractiveness of a short-term mate a necessity (although men did consider the physical attractiveness of a short-term mate significantly more of a necessity than women). In addition, Experiment 1 provided support for Li and colleagues (2002), showing that men consider the physical attractiveness of a long-term mate a necessity (and significantly more of a necessity then women do). However, Experiment 1 did not find that women considered the social level of a long-term mate a necessity, thus not providing support for Li and colleagues (2002). In addition, women did not consider the social level of a long-term mate significantly more of a necessity compared to men. Based on these findings, it was discussed that men’s and women’s necessity of a long and short-term mate’s physical attractiveness and social level might be influenced by social variables and contexts. As such the aim of Experiments 2 and 3 was to extend previous research on social-economic theory of sex differences in mate preferences by considering the independent and interactive effects different social factors have on the characteristics men and women consider necessities in long-term and short-term mates, respectively...

This research aims to analyse the evolutionary development of the scientific treatises devoted to the national economic energy efficiency. To attain the paper's goal, this study is carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) identification and generation of the necessary relevant data: 2) analysis of keywords co-occurrence to determine the promising research areas on energy efficiency. The authors used keywords "energy policy", "energy efficiency", "sustainable development" to generate the relevant study sample. Thus, the study sample consists of 48,888 publications indexed by the scientometric databases Scopus and Web of Science. The study period is 2000-2020. Visualization of the bibliometric analysis results concerning the national economic energy efficiency management was conducted using the VOSviewer software v.1.6.10. The co-occurrence network map identified the six stages of evolutionary development of scientific treatises on the national economic energy efficiency. Besides, the authors applied Google Trends tools to analyse 2,172 internet search queries regarding the social concern in energy efficiency. In the study, the authors conclude that the scientific society has not yet reached a consensus in identifying key determinants of energy efficiency under the national economy transition to a carbon-free development model. The research results can be helpful for scholars investigating the determinants of developing the national economic energy efficiency.
This research was funded by the grants from the National Research Foundation of Ukraine ; the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’étudier l’évolution des clusters. La littérature concernant les clusters s’est longuement intéressée aux raisons de leur existence ainsi qu’à la manière dont ils favorisent l’innovation, la productivité et la croissance. Nous étudions comment ces effets durent dans le temps, poursuivant l’objectif d’identifier les déterminants de la performance dynamique des clusters. Il s’agit, ainsi, d’expliquer pourquoi certains clusters déclinent tandis que d’autres continuent à fonctionner grâce à un renouveau constant. Cette thèse adopte une approche des clusters par les réseaux. Nous défendons l’idée que les structures de réseau hétérogènes des clusters démontrent des capacités différentes à s’associer ou à se dissocier des cycles industriels/technologiques au bon moment. Ainsi, nous identifions les propriétés de structure du réseau qui favorisent la performance dynamique des clusters ou la résilience des clusters. Nous appuyons nos développements théoriques sur des regards empiriques dans deux contextes bien différents. D’une part, nous étudions les structures des clusters de l’industrie de la téléphonie mobile en Europe. D’autre part, nous analysons la structure des relations entre les producteurs de fromage d’Aculco (Mexique). Le résultat principal de ce travail montre que la hiérarchie et la disassortativité des réseaux, ainsi que les interactions entre des réseaux de natures différentes (multiplexité), influencent la capacité des clusters à éviter les lock-in négatifs, conduisant à leur déclin, et favorisent le lock-out pour la survie du cluster, c’est-à-dire la prolongation de leur vie
The main objective of this thesis is to study clusters’ evolution. The literature on clusters has widely studied why clusters exist and how they favor innovation, productivity and growth. Our concern is to study how these effects hold over time. Therefore, we aim at identifying the determinants of dynamic performance of clusters to explain why some clusters decline while others keep working by continuous renewal. To do so, this thesis approaches clusters from a network perspective. We contend that clusters with heterogeneous network structures exhibit different capacities to associate and dissociate cluster’s evolution and industrial/technological cycle at the right moment. Thus, we identify the properties of network structures that favor dynamic performance of clusters or cluster resilience. We support our theoretical developments with empirical insights in two different contexts. On the one hand, we study the structure of clusters in the European mobile phone industry. On the other hand, we analyze the structure of relations between cheese producers in Aculco (Mexico). The main result of this work is that network hierarchy, network disassortativity and the interplay between different networks (multiplexity) influence the capacity of clusters to avoid negative lock-in leading to cluster failure, and favor lock-out to enhance cluster continuation, i.e. extending the life of the cluster

In a market economy, the behaviour of firms determines the extent and type of anthropogenic impacts that affect natural ecosystems. As such it is critical that the regulation of corporate behaviour is closely appraised. All economic production systems use natural resource inputs and release waste emissions to environmental sinks; they also contribute to sustainability in terms of income generation. The analysis of economic efficiency is thus coined in terms of juxtaposing and balancing these effects and the role of regulation is to intervene so that the outcome (in terms of corporate behaviour) approximates to this theoretical social optimum. Determining optimal regulation is the core focus of this thesis. The role of environmental regulation has become prominent of late owing to developments in the science (and social science) of climate change and ecosystems functioning. It has also been strongly influenced by the Porter Hypothesis (PH) which challenges the non-interventionist doctrine of neo-classical economics in favour of stricter environmental regulation, based on the presumption that significant pollution offsets are available if and only firms are forced to search for eco-innovations. In order to progress the argument vis-à-vis optimal regulation it is first essential to explore the role of the firm in society, i.e. what the responsibilities of industry ought to be with respect to the sustainability agenda. I juxtapose and critically appraise functionalist theory and its associated utilitarian ethic with social permission theory; the outcome of this analysis is the contention that ‘I&We’ deontological theory is the most defensible alternative and as such a firm’s fiduciaries ought to balance the conflicting claims of stakeholders, i.e. shareholders are important but not paramount. Given this outcome, the role of the regulator is to intervene when the market for ‘green’ corporate behaviour does not function. There are various reasons outlined as to why such intervention might be required. On the demand side, evidence is presented of consumers’ willingness-to-pay for perceived environmental quality. This product attribute is typically a credence attribute and there is asymmetric information; there is an incentive for ‘greenwashing’, i.e. false or misleading environmental marketing claims. The strategic behavioural model developed herein implies that the status quo is potential sub-optimality in that consumers play a mixed strategy and, over time, there is the potential for a vicious cycle in that progressively less and less ‘green’ marketing claims are genuine. On the supply side, firms may be ‘satisficing’ as opposed to optimising with respect to eco-innovations; a firm’s search for and selection of innovation is path-dependent, i.e. the history of innovations is influential. This supports the PH in that stimulating a shift to an eco-innovation trajectory realises benefits not only in the current time period but into the future. I also demonstrate that firms may be ‘locked in’ to technological paths that are sub-optimal (and environmentally damaging) owing to ‘coordination effects’ and as such there is a further role for economically efficient regulatory intervention on the supply side. Well-designed regulation can improve economic welfare in that it might propagate a shift in (as opposed to movement along) abatement cost curves. This in turn implies a convergence between the ‘best’ level of pollution for the polluter and for society, therein ameliorating the potential deadweight losses from the strategic interaction between the polluter and the regulator.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Este trabalho foi realizado no formato de três artigos que se apresentam aqui como capítulos. O primeiro artigo realiza uma revisão bibliográfica sobre o papel da tecnologia para a economia do meio ambiente e a economia evolucionista. O segundo artigo faz uma discussão acerca dos problemas ambientais relacionados ao setor eletrônico brasileiro, bem como as possíveis soluções tecnologias desenvolvidas para soluciona-los, ademais ele faz apontamentos sobre a discussão da regulação ambiental na promoção dessas soluções tecnológicas. O terceiro artigo realiza um levantamento das firmas brasileiras do setor eletrônico que realizaram inovações ambientais no período de 2009-2011, através desse levantamento, busca-se identificar as características das firmas quanto ao seu tamanho, capital controlador, cooperação entre agentes, esforços inovativos e regulação. Por último, é realizado um exercício econométrico cuja finalidade é indicar quais são os principais determinantes das inovações ambientais no setor eletrônico brasileiro no ano de 2011
This master thesis was structured in three articles presented here in chapters format. The first article provides a literature review on the role of technology in environmental economics and evolutionary economics as well. The second article discuss the environmental problems related to the Brazilian electronics sector, and its possible technological solutions. It also discuss the roll of environmental regulation as a driver of these technological solutions. The third article presents a survey of Brazilian electronics companies that performed environmental innovations in 2009-201, we seek to identify the characteristics of firms in terms of size, controlling capital, cooperation among agents, innovative efforts and regulation. Besides this, it is performed an econometric exercise whose purpose is to indicate which are the main determinants of environmental innovations in the Brazilian electronics industry in this period

Orientador: Luciana Togeiro de Almeida
Banca: Maj Munch Andersen
Banca: Tatiana Massaroli de Melo
Resumo: Este trabalho foi realizado no formato de três artigos que se apresentam aqui como capítulos. O primeiro artigo realiza uma revisão bibliográfica sobre o papel da tecnologia para a economia do meio ambiente e a economia evolucionista. O segundo artigo faz uma discussão acerca dos problemas ambientais relacionados ao setor eletrônico brasileiro, bem como as possíveis soluções tecnologias desenvolvidas para soluciona-los, ademais ele faz apontamentos sobre a discussão da regulação ambiental na promoção dessas soluções tecnológicas. O terceiro artigo realiza um levantamento das firmas brasileiras do setor eletrônico que realizaram inovações ambientais no período de 2009-2011, através desse levantamento, busca-se identificar as características das firmas quanto ao seu tamanho, capital controlador, cooperação entre agentes, esforços inovativos e regulação. Por último, é realizado um exercício econométrico cuja finalidade é indicar quais são os principais determinantes das inovações ambientais no setor eletrônico brasileiro no ano de 2011
Abstract: This master thesis was structured in three articles presented here in chapters format. The first article provides a literature review on the role of technology in environmental economics and evolutionary economics as well. The second article discuss the environmental problems related to the Brazilian electronics sector, and its possible technological solutions. It also discuss the roll of environmental regulation as a driver of these technological solutions. The third article presents a survey of Brazilian electronics companies that performed environmental innovations in 2009-201, we seek to identify the characteristics of firms in terms of size, controlling capital, cooperation among agents, innovative efforts and regulation. Besides this, it is performed an econometric exercise whose purpose is to indicate which are the main determinants of environmental innovations in the Brazilian electronics industry in this period
Mestre

Wholesale electricity markets now operate in many countries around the world. These markets determine a spot price for electricity as the clearing price when generators bid in energy at various prices. As the trading in a wholesale electricity market can be seen as a dynamic repeated game, it would be expected that profit maximising generators learn to engage in tacit collusion to profitably increase spot market prices. This thesis investigates this tacit collusion of generators in oligopolistic electricity markets. We do not follow the approach of previous work in game theory that presupposes firms' collusive strategies to enforce collusion in an oligopoly. Instead, we develop a co-evolutionary approach (extending previous work in this area) using a genetic algorithm (GA) to co-evolve strategies for all generators in some stylised models of an electricity market. The bidding strategy of each generator is modelled as a set of bidding actions, one for each possible discrete state of the state space observed by the generator. The market trading interactions are simulated to determine the fitness of a particular strategy. The tacitly collusive outcomes and strategies emerging from computational experiments are thus obtained from the learning or evolutionary process instead of from any pre-specification. Analysing many of those emergent collusive outcomes and strategies. we are able to specify the mechanism of tacit collusion and investigate how the market environment can affect it. We find that the learned collusive strategies are similar to the forgiving trigger strategies of classical supergame theory (Green and Porter, 1984). Also using computational experiments, we can determine which characteristics of the market environment encourage or hinder tacit collusion. The findings from this thesis provide insights on tacit collusion in an oligopoly and policy implications from a learning perspective. With modelling flexibility, our co-evolutionary approach can be extended to study strategic behaviour in an oligopoly considering many other market characteristics.

Historiquement, les échanges entre biologie et économie ont été fréquents et ont bien souvent suscité d’importantes controverses. Plus précisément, de nombreux chercheurs en sciences sociales, qu’ils soient économistes ou qu’ils exercent leur activité dans d’autres disciplines, ont régulièrement exprimé des réserves, des réticences et parfois même une forme d’aversion vis-à-vis de certaines formes d’échanges entre économie et biologie. Ces échanges se sont produits à travers différents canaux et selon différentes modalités. Ils ne se sont pas limités à de simples analogies ou métaphores. Cette thèse s'intéresse à deux formes distinctes d’importation de la biologie dans l’économie qui ont été particulièrement problématiques. La première consiste en l’explication de phénomènes économiques, que ceux-ci se manifestent au niveau micro-économique ou macro-économique, par des variables biologiques. Les travaux cliométriques de R. W. Fogel d’une part, et de Q. Ashraf et O. Galor d’autre part, dont les approches empiriques de la croissance économique reposent respectivement sur un réductionnisme physiologique et sur un réductionnisme génétique, illustrent cette première tendance, et constituent l’objet d’étude des deux premiers chapitres de cette thèse. Parallèlement à ce recours à des formes de réductionnisme biologique plus ou moins motivé, qui se produit principalement dans l’énonciation de théories économiques cherchant à fournir des fondements biologiques à la structure et au fonctionnement des systèmes économiques, un second recours à la biologie a également suscité d’importances controverses. Ce second usage de la biologie a pris la forme bien connue de la métaphore de la sélection naturelle. Alors que le réductionnisme biologique s’exprime principalement dans la dimension structuro-fonctionnelle des systèmes économiques, le recours à la métaphore de la sélection naturelle concerne quant à lui la dimension évolutive de ces mêmes systèmes. Le troisième chapitre de cette thèse est ainsi consacré à l’étude critique des conditions permettant l’extension des principes darwiniens de variation, de sélection et d’hérédité à la compréhension de la dynamique évolutive des systèmes économiques. A travers l’étude des enjeux à la fois méthodologiques et épistémologiques que ces deux grands types de recours à la biologie soulèvent, cette thèse vise à permettre de renouveler les échanges entre ces deux disciplines sous une forme qui échappe à la fois aux écueils d’un recours parfois naïf au réductionnisme biologique et à ceux d’un transfert trop audacieux des principes de l’évolution biologique dans le champ de l’évolution sociale et économique. Les développements proposés semblent au contraire inviter les économistes intéressés par le dialogue entre biologie et économie à se prémunir à la fois contre la tentation d’un réductionnisme biologisant et contre les multiples facettes d’un évolutionnisme naturalisant, qui ne constituent finalement que les deux faces d’une même pièce : celle de la négation du caractère profondément politique des objets sociaux et économiques et de la restriction arbitraire et néfaste du « champ des possibles » propre aux systèmes économiques et sociaux
Historically, exchanges between biology and economics have been frequent and have often caused considerable controversy. More specifically, many social scientists, whether economists or conducting academic research in other disciplines, have regularly expressed reservations, reluctance and sometimes even a form of aversion toward certain forms of exchange between economics and biology. These exchanges between these two disciplines have occurred through different channels and in different ways. As this dissertation explains, they were not limited to mere analogies or metaphors. Indeed, two distinct forms of imports from biology into economics have been particularly problematic. The first is the explanation of economic phenomena, whether the latter take place at the micro-economic or macro-economic level, by biological variables. The cliometric approaches of RW Fogel on the one hand, and of Q. Ashraf and O. Galor on the other, whose empirical studies of the determinants of economic growth are respectively based on physiological reductionism and on genetic reductionism, illustrate this first trend, and constitute the subject matter of the first two chapters of this thesis. Along with the use of more or less motivated forms of biological reductionism, which occurs mainly in the formulation of economic theories that seek to provide a biological basis for the structure and functioning of economic systems, a second recourse to biology has also been used, and also aroused important controversies. This second use of biology in economics took the well-known form of the metaphor of natural selection. While biological reductionism mainly occurs in studies related to the structuro-functional dimension of economic systems, the use of the metaphor of natural selection obviously concerns the evolutionary dimension of these same systems. The third chapter of this thesis is therefore devoted to the study of the conditions that allows for the extension of the three Darwinian principles of variation, selection and inheritance to the understanding of the evolutionary dynamics of economic systems. Through the study of both some methodological and epistemological stakes that these two major types of recourse to biology raise, this thesis aims to allow for a renewal of the exchanges between these two disciplines in a form that eschews both the pitfalls of a sometimes naive recourse to biological reductionism and of an excessively daring transfer of the principles of biological evolution into the field of social and economic evolution. On the contrary, it seems necessary for economists interested in a fruitful dialogue between biology and economics to be able to guard against both the temptation of a biologizing reductionism and the many facets of a naturalizing evolutionism, which finally turn out to be the two sides of the coin: that of the negation of the deeply political nature of social and economic objects and of the arbitrary and harmful restriction of the "field of possibilities" which characterizes economic and social systems

According to Veblen (1915), the evolution of institutions is the same as institutional development and this is the development of society. The aim of this paper is answer the question: what is the role of the individual in Veblen's institutional evolution? The general objective is to seek the role occupied by the individual in Veblen's institutional evolution. In order to achieve the general objective, we developed an analytical framework that presents the fundamental characteristics of the Evolutionary Economic Theory. The specific objective is investigate the fundamental characteristics of an Evolutionary Economic Theory and a form of presentation as an analytical framework that is to evaluate a Veblen’s Theory and the role of the individual in it. To understand what the fundamental elements of an Evolutionary Economic Theory are it is necessary to clarify what an evolutionary ontology is. According to Dopfer and Potts (2008, 2004), an ontology serves as a foundation for an Evolutionary Economic Theory and is made up of scientific claims about a fundamental nature of reality. As an alternative to evolutionary ontology, Dopfer and Potts (2008; 2004) propose the Evolutionary Realism. After defining the evolutionary ontology, we starts with the construction of the fundamental characteristics of Evolutionary Economic Theory that are in conformity with Evolutionary Realism. In order to do that we use the works of Witt (2014), Metcalfe (1998), Lawson (2003) and Potts (2003). From the union these four authors combined with an evolutionary ontological orientation, we concluded that four elements fundamental to an Evolutionary Economic Theory are variation, selection, replication and adaptation. These elements are fundamental characteristics of the Evolutionary Economic Theory and connect in the analysis framework through the Witt’s (2014) modalities. To begin this evaluation it is necessary to clarify who the population and the unit of selection are. This structure is a tool for analysis the evolutionary theory of Veblen. This method of evaluating the individual's role applied in a selection of Veblen's writings leads to the conclusion that through his instincts, habits, and institutions, the Veblen’s individual has characteristics of variation, selection, adaptation and replication. In institutional evolution, it has a multiple role, sometimes acting as an agent through its instincts and habits, or else it takes a more passive stance, where it is shaped by the institutional environment. The multiple role of the individual in Veblen can be conceived scientifically and theoretically, when we incorporates in the theoretical structure the explanation of type (iii). This kind of explanation makes it possible to conceive the history of adaptive processes that are also interactive in which selection, adaptation and replication are imperfect, opening the way for the generation of new variation. An evolutionary ontology allows creating scientific theories in these molds.
Segundo Veblen (1915), a evolução das instituições é o mesmo que desenvolvimento institucional e isso é o próprio desenvolvimento da sociedade. Este trabalho almeja responder a seguinte questão: qual é o papel do indivíduo na evolução institucional de Veblen? O objetivo geral é buscar o papel que o indivíduo ocupa na evolução institucional de Veblen. Para atingir o objetivo geral foi desenvolvida uma estrutura analítica que apresenta as características fundamentais de Teoria Econômica Evolucionária. Como objetivo específico, investiga-se as características fundamentais de uma Teoria Econômica Evolucionária e uma forma de apresentá-la como uma estrutura analítica que será usada para avaliar a Teoria de Veblen e o papel do indivíduo na mesma. Para se entender quais são os elementos fundamentais de uma Teoria Econômica Evolucionária, primeiramente é necessário esclarecer o que é uma ontologia evolucionária. Conforme Dopfer e Potts (2008; 2004), a ontologia tem a função de servir como alicerce para a Teoria Econômica Evolucionária e é composta por afirmações científicas sobre a natureza fundamental da realidade. Como uma alternativa de ontologia evolucionária Dopfer e Potts (2008; 2004) propõem o Realismo Evolucionário. Após a definição da ontologia evolucionária, parte-se para a construção das características fundamentais da Teoria Econômica Evolucionária que estejam em conformidade com o Realismo Evolucionário. Nesse trabalho serão apresentados quatro autores Witt (2014), Metcalfe (1998), Lawson (2003) e Potts (2003). Da união desses quatro autores somada com a orientação ontológica evolucionária conclui-se que quatro elementos são fundamentais para uma Teoria Econômica Evolucionária: variação, seleção, replicação e adaptação. Esses elementos compõem as características fundamentais da Teoria Econômica Evolucionária à luz das modalidades de Witt (2014). Ressalta-se que para iniciar essa avaliação é preciso esclarecer quem é essa população e qual é a unidade de seleção. Essa estruturação foi usada como uma ferramenta para analisar a teoria evolucionária de Veblen. Esse método de avaliação do papel do indivíduo aplicado à leitura de uma seleção de escritos de Veblen leva à conclusão de que através de seus instintos, hábitos e instituições, o indivíduo de Veblen possui características de variação, seleção, adaptação e replicação. Na evolução institucional ele possui um múltiplo papel, ora atua como agente através de seus instintos e hábitos, ora assume uma postura mais passiva, onde é moldado pelo ambiente institucional. O múltiplo papel do indivíduo em Veblen pode ser concebido cientificamente e teoricamente quando se incorpora na estrutura teórica a explicação do tipo (iii). Esse tipo de explicação torna possível conceber a história de processos adaptativos que são, também, interativos nos quais a seleção, adaptação e replicação são imperfeitas, abrindo caminho para a geração de nova variação. Uma ontologia evolucionária permite criar teorias cientificas nestes moldes.

Orientador: David Dequech Filho
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: Este estudo consiste numa abordagem exploratória que visa descrever os processos pelos quais os modelos mentais são compartilhados em sociedade e exercem sua influência sobre a ação dos agentes econômicos, tomando como objeto de análise o fenômeno da conformidade institucional do comportamento humano. Para atingir este propósito, buscamos, em primeiro lugar, mapear e sistematizar a literatura do institucionalismo econômico com ênfase em suas principais vertentes contemporâneas, demonstrando haver um consenso quanto à relevância atribuída às instituições informais, notadamente na forma de modelos mentais socialmente compartilhados, para a explicação de diversos fenômenos econômicos até então pouco compreendidos ou mesmo negligenciados pela teoria neoclássica. A seguir, apresentamos uma síntese dos principais elementos de análise das modernas teorias da cognição, de modo a avançar na direção de uma compreensão mais aprofundada da dimensão cognitiva da influência institucional sobre a ação individual. Por fim, argumentamos que a forma como os modelos mentais são internalizados pelos agentes condiciona a conformidade de seu comportamento para com as instituições a que se vinculam, enquanto membros de um determinado grupo social. O trabalho é concluído enfatizando a relevância da dimensão cognitiva para a agenda de pesquisa econômica, bem como apontando caminhos para uma possível convergência do pensamento institucionalista a partir de uma melhor compreensão do funcionamento das regras informais e dos mecanismos de enforcement, tendo por base o estudo dos modelos mentais socialmente compartilhados
Abstract: This study is an exploratory approach that aims to describe the processes by which mental models are shared in society and exert their influence over the actions of economic agents, taking as object of analysis the phenomenon of institutional conformity of human behavior. To achieve this goal, we seek, first, to map and systematize the literature of economic institutionalism with emphasis on its main contemporary lines, showing that there is a consensus on the importance given to informal institutions, notably in the form of socially shared mental models, for explanation of economic phenomena hitherto little understood or even overlooked by neoclassical theory. The following is a summary of the main elements of analysis of modern theories of cognition, in order to move toward a deeper understanding of the cognitive dimension of institutional influence on individual action. Finally, we argue that the way mental models are internalized by the agents affects the conformity of their conduct to the institutions to which they bind, as members of a particular social group. The work is concluded by emphasizing the relevance of the cognitive dimension to the agenda of economic research, as well as pointing to a possible convergence paths of thought from an institutionalist understanding of the functioning of informal rules and enforcement mechanisms, based on the study of shared mental models
Doutorado
Teoria Economica
Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

Orientador: Paulo Sergio Fracalanza
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: Esta dissertação procura apresentar uma abordagem evolucionária para as ciências econômicas, seguindo os princípios darwinianos, - como uma alternativa factível e consistente à visão essencialista do pensamento neoclássico. A partir de uma perspectiva fundada na história das idéias evolucionárias, este trabalho procura compreender como os desenvolvimentos destas idéias influenciaram o debate econômico em determinados períodos. Denominados período de fundação, especificação e disseminação, procura-se evidenciar as repercussões desses três importantes momentos da história do pensamento evolucionário sobre o desenvolvimento das idéias econômicas. Assim, o trabalho centra seus esforços, num primeiro momento, em verificar a influência da concepção evolucionária de Charles Darwin sobre a perspectiva institucionalista de Thorstein Veblen; num segundo momento, o trabalho acompanha como os desenvolvimentos da biologia evolucionária de meados do século XX, repercutiram sobre as idéias geradas a partir de debates específicos dentro da controvérsia marginalista; e, finalmente, num terceiro momento pretende-se avaliar a recente proposta de generalização dos princípios darwinianos para a economia, seguindo a perspectiva evolucionária do trabalho de Geoffrey Hodgson.
Abstract: This dissertation presents an evolutionary approach to economics, following the darwinian principles, - as a consistent and feasible alternative to the essentialist stand point of neoclassical economics. Departing from a specific perspective founded on the history of evolutionary thought, this dissertation seeks to understand how the developments of these ideas affected the economic debate in certain moments. Named as period of foundation, specification and dissemination, this work tries to highlight how the impact of these three crucial moments in the history of evolutionary thought affected the history of economic ideas. Therefore, this dissertation concentrate its efforts, firstly, to verify the influence of Charles Darwin's evolutionary conception on Thorstein Veblen institutionalist perspective; after that, this work seeks to understand how the developments in evolutionary biology from the mid-twentieth century affected some ideas generated within the marginalist controversy; and, finally, a third instance aims to evaluate the recent proposal for the generalization of Darwinian principles to the economy, following the evolutionary perspective of Geoffrey Hodgson work.
Mestrado
Teoria Economica
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Dept. of Economics and Social Science Consortium. University of Missouri--Kansas City, 2008.
"A dissertation in economics and the social science consortium." Advisor: Mathew Forstater. Typescript. Vita. Title from "catalog record" of the print edition Description based on contents viewed Feb. 6, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 181-193). Online version of the print edition.

Objectives of this research were (1) to describe fee hunting as it is currently practiced in Utah and (2) to assess the adequacy of fee hunting efforts in addressing the problems of wildlife habitat and hunter access on private land. To collect information, Utah landowners who charged for deer (Odocoileus hemionus) or elk (Cervus elaphus) hunting in 1986 were surveyed by telephone and mail. Compared to the average Utah livestock rancher, those involved in fee hunting have larger livestock operations and have owned their property longer. They are Utah natives. Fee hunting is concentrated in northern Utah where foothill and mountain rangelands are privately owned. There is great diversity in the way fee hunting is organized and managed. Hunting opportunities sold by lease usually include few services and require hunters to post and patrol the property. Hunts sold by permit may include more services and be personally managed by the rancher. In general, fee hunting in Utah is differentiated from public land hunting by the availability of more acres per hunter rather than by special services or trophy animals. Fee hunting serves mostly resident hunters. Average net annual cash income is $6587, or $0.66 per acre. The most common expenses incurred are for road and facility (fence, campsite) maintenance and vehicle costs. Highest expenses are those associated with providing services. Landowners initiated fee hunting in order to gain control over trespassing and cover the costs of having hunters on their property. Most do not buy liability insurance. Fee hunting is expanding the number and types of hunting opportunities and is meeting the needs of landowners to minimize costs of trespassing and hunters. However, fee hunting is not stimulating investments in wildlife habitat improvement. Because of intermingling landownerships and the migratory nature of deer and elk in Utah, investments in wildlife habitat or management have an uncertain return. It is unlikely that fee hunting can provide adequate incentives for improving wildlife habitat without substantial policy changes to enhance the ability of landowners to capture a return on such investments.

Orientador: Lea Maria Leme Strini Velho
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociencias
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Resumo: A proposta dessa dissertação vai ao encontro do reconhecimento recente por parte dos autores das mais diversas tendências de que os enfoques disciplinares para tratar a produção do conhecimento em ciência e tecnologia, em geral, e a mudança tecnológica, em particular, são insuficientes. Como resposta a esse problema, propõe a multidisciplinaridade (ou interatividade) como forma de análise para esse fenômeno. Particularmente parece existir dificuldade de diálogo entre aqueles que estudam a produção do conhecimento científico e tecnológico com abordagens sociológicas e aqueles que o fazem a partir de enfoques econômicos. Aproximar essas duas vertentes de análise, identificando suas diferenças e, principalmente, seus pontos convergentes é do que se trata essa dissertação. Enquanto a Economia tende a não incorporar elementos importantes para a compreensão desse processo, como os determinantes sociais deste tipo de produção - entre eles, os interesses dos atores envolvidos, as estruturas de poder e a influência dos aspectos políticos -, a Sociologia, em contrapartida, desconsidera muitas das características fundamentais para a estrutura econômica de produção tecnológica, como agências, instituições e sistemas econômicos. Esses diferentes aspectos enfocados por cada uma dessas linhas de pensamento permitem que surjam, em muitos momentos, espaços ociosos de análise que poderiam ser mais bem explorados caso houvesse um esforço de complementaridade entre eles. Muito embora ainda haja certa resistência na integração disciplinar, este trabalho explora as possibilidades de entrecruzamentos das linhas de pensamento econômica, representada pela Economia Evolucionista (EE), e social, representada por dois ramos da Sociologia do Conhecimento Científico: a Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) e a Actor Network Theory (ANT), partindo-se da perspectiva de que alguns de seus elementos de análise se complementam de forma a garantir uma caracterização mais consistente e ampla do objeto analisado. Para tanto, apresenta em seu primeiro capítulo uma contextualização sucinta de onde estão inseridas as três abordagens, quais são suas principais contribuições no que tange à produção tecnológica e algumas de suas principais categorias analíticas. Em seu segundo capítulo, propõe um exercício de complementaridade entre essas categorias analíticas, buscando ressaltar os pontos de interface e os pontos a partir dos quais uma suprimiria a carência analítica das outras. Em seu terceiro capítulo, ilustra, para cada uma das abordagens, um estudo de caso de desenvolvimento tecnológico, que são revisitados à luz das principais categorias de análise fornecidos por elas, para que assim possa-se identificar tanto a diferença no modo como cada um dos enfoques analisa os casos em questão quanto a possibilidade de complementaridade entre eles
Abstract: The proposal of this dissertation is based on the recent recognition by authors of the most diverse trends that disciplinary approach to study the production of knowledge in science and technology, in general, and the technological change, in particular, is insufficient. Based on this, it proposes the multidisciplinarity (or interactivity) as a form of analysis of this phenomenon. Particularly it seems to exist no dialogue between the ones who study the production of scientific and technological knowledge based on sociological approaches and those who study it based on economic tools. To integrate these two sources of analysis, identifying its differences and, mainly, its convergent points is the first aim of this dissertation. While Economics tends not to incorporate important elements for the understanding of these processes, such as the social determinants of this type of production ¿ among them, the interests of the involved actors, the emergence of power structures between them and the influence of the political aspects - , Sociology, on the other hand, disregards many of the basic economic aspects of technological production, such as economic agencies, institutions and systems. The different aspects focused by each discipline on technological production allow the appearance, in many moments, of vague spaces of analysis that could be better explored if a complementary effort existed between them. Even though there is still certain reluctance on disciplinary integration, this work explores the possibilities of dialogue between one approach of Economics thought, represented by the Evolutionary Economics (EE), and two approaches of the Sociology of Scientific Knowledge, represented by the Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) and the Actor Network Theory (ANT), considering that some of its analytical elements complement each other, guaranteeing a more consistent and ample characterization of the analyzed object. For in such a way, it presents on its first chapter an introduction of these three approaches, its main contributions related to the technological production and some of its major analytical categories. Its second chapter proposes an exercise of complementarity between these analytical categories, searching to stand out the interface points and the points from which one approach would suppress the analytical fragilities of the others. The third chapter presents a technological development case study for each one of the approaches, which are revisited based on the conciliation of the three categories of analysis, allowing the application of the possibility of complementarity between them
Mestrado
Mestre em Política Científica e Tecnológica

Much research has been done on the effects of distributed generation on network characteristics. However, little research has been done on the effects of this distributed generation on current network protection schemes. An IPP has approached a South African municipality regarding the connection of a wind farm that would be connected to the municipality’s existing grid. This presented a unique opportunity to simulate and study the impact and effect that this wind farm would have on a real-life network in terms of network operation and protection schemes. This also presents the possibility of connecting the wind farm in a different configuration, possibly resulting in better network operation at a lower cost. The network optimisation in this research was done using the probability-based incremental learning (PBIL) and differential evolution (DE) optimisation techniques. These algorithms were programmed and modelled according to the desired IPP wind farm requirements using the MATLAB and MATPOWER simulation packages. The networks used in these algorithms were modelled in the text-based MATPOWER format. This research goes on to study a modified 14-bus IEEE test network in terms of network characteristics and protection performance so that an idea of the performance of the optimisation algorithms can be obtained. Protection data for the IEEE network was not available. The network was thus graded for use in this study. The research then continues to model the existing and proposed network configuration, and proposes various other points of connection to the municipal network using the PBIL and DE algorithms. These studies were conducted using the DIgSILENT PowerFactory simulation package, with the networks and protection data being modelled in this package. Network and protection performance results were recorded for each case in both networks under study. The results show that in the case of the modified IEEE network, the DE algorithm provides a better solution in terms of improving power losses while the PBIL algorithm provides a better solution in terms of improving the voltage profile. In the case of the municipality network, the DE algorithm provides the best performance, with the DE result managing to reduce power losses by 83.89% compared to the current and proposed network configurations. The overall voltage profile was also seen to improve by over 23%. The research also found that the change in fault level for the various cases are minimal. This is due to the limitation in fault current contribution imposed by the use of an inverter system connecting the wind farm to the grid. This means that, as the results shows, network grading is not very much affected by the addition of the wind farm connections. However, it is seen that the municipal network is not optimally graded in the base case. Finally, it is also seen that, though not often used in research, the MATPOWER package works well as a network simulation tool. A costing analysis was also conducted and shows that the DE solution is the most cost-effective solution, in addition to being the best-performing solution. The study recommends that the results produced by the DE algorithm be implemented instead of the proposed implementation. The municipal network should also be regraded and new protection settings should be implemented.

This thesis investigates the evolutionary foundation of the Innovation System concept and the quantitative techniques that could be used for a systemic evaluation of innovation policies. This topic has been covered through 6 chapters:
Chapter I: The innovation system concept, which is the central concept of this thesis, finds its foundations in the evolutionary theory of economics and the Schumpeterian point of view on the co-evolution of innovation, organizations and institutions. Developed by Nelson and Winter in 1982, this theory is based on the idea that the surviving firms on the markets are not necessarily the ones that maximize their profits. Indeed, their ability to survive is reinforced by the development of internal organizational routines allowing for a fast adaptation to their changing environment. Thus, when assessing performances in terms of innovation in general, the single firm should not by the only centre of attention anymore. The entire environment surrounding its innovation activities should by analysed to understand the conditions underlying its failure or success. The definition of the innovation system (IS) concept finds its roots in this theory: the environment in which innovation activities take place is as important as the decision of the single innovation actor. Defined as all the institutions and organizations involved in the creation and diffusion of new knowledge and technology, the IS includes not only stakeholders of the innovation process, but also all the transversal sectors affecting innovation near or far: labour market, finance, and education… In such a context, the main justification for public intervention shifted from the market failures described by the neo-classical theory, to systemic failures, i.e. the dysfunctions of the IS, on which governments may take actions. And this shift in the policy rationale also leads to specific evaluation techniques of public initiatives.
Chapter II: The IS concept is defined as all the institutions and organizations involved in the creation, diffusion and absorption of new knowledge and technology. An important question is raised by such a point of view: what is a system? What are its components? How does it foster innovation? This theoretical step is necessary to understand all the aspect of the innovation environment that are concerned by innovation policy design. How could a policy-maker integrate the systemic framework of the IS when initiating public action with the aim to improve performances in terms of science, technology and innovation? A large part of the economic literature is dedicated to the description of innovation systems. So the aim of this chapter consists of synthetizing the aspects referenced in the economic theory as the components of the IS in a normative exercise. First, the term “system” involves the articulation of several components and the relationships existing between them. Departing from this definition, three broad aspect of the IS are considered: the actors of the innovation process, the functions of the system and the resulting objectives that should be pursued by the stakeholders, and the instruments used by public authorities to intervene in such a systemic context. The actors involved in the innovation process are not only the recipient of a public policy, they are also policy makers, implementation agents and targets of the policy measures. The functions of the IS mainly concerns the creation, diffusion and absorption of new knowledge and technology. As the role of the State is to improve the performances of such a system, those functions should be considered as the objectives of public action. Finally, the instruments used by the State to reach these goals can also be detailed: innovation policies can be implemented through direct support measures (financial or fiscal tools), the improvement of the infrastructure allowing for the diffusion of innovation, or the general framework conditions affecting performances. The normative exercise ended up with an exhaustive taxonomy that may be used for further analysis
Chapter III: As the aim of this thesis is to develop analytical tools to integrate the IS point of view in public policy evaluation, the most important aspect of the work consisted in building an exhaustive database on innovation policies implemented in the EU28 Member States and its main non-EU competitors (Australia, China, Japan, the US, India, the Russian Federation, Brazil, South Korea and Canada). This database was constructed in the context of the ENIRI study conducted by the European Commission, between 2013 and 2015. This long-lasting work involved the collection of information concerning the innovation policy measures implemented in all the considered countries, both at the national and regional levels. This information was related to the IS dimensions highlighted in previous chapter. The main sources for data collection were the RIO (former Erawatch) and OECD STIP databases, the RIM Plus Monitor and national sources (Ministry websites), as well as national experts. The budgets was also included or estimated for the 2007-2013 period. Once the data were collected, the policy measures were classified according to the theoretical canvas developed through the taxonomy of chapter II. Functional matrices combining different aspects of the IS allowed for detailed information on the distribution of policy measures among the different dimensions of the system. For example, it is possible to estimate the percentage of policy measures implemented in one country that are dedicated to the fundamental research activities in SMEs. This distribution has been computed both in absolute and budget terms. This difference provided information on the contrast existing between governmental claims and intentions in terms of innovation policies and the effective use of money dedicated to the announced target. Indeed, it is not because a substantial number of policies are dedicated to a specific sector of beneficiary that the allocated budget will be more important. Thus, this policy database should shed a light on the way innovation policies are articulated at a national level, and how they are effectively implemented through their budgets
Chapter IV: The evolutionary foundations of the IS concept imply that there is no general equilibrium describing an ideal situation to which a specific case can be compared. In other words, there is no optimal innovation system, and no ideal configuration that should be imitated by the others. This absence of equilibrium and the systemic point of view adopted in this context lead to the use of alternative techniques to evaluate performances and policies. As suggested by Edquist (2006), this has to be done through a diagnosis of the IS, consisting in the identification of the systemic failures, and the elaboration of strategy to fix the problem. This demarche will be investigated in this chapter of the thesis and the following. In this section, a diagnosis of the IS of 37 countries (28 EU and their 9 non-EU competitors) will be realized through a typology based on innovation performances indicators. The aim of such an analysis is to see whether the different IS can be gathered in groups sharing the same characteristics, relative strengths and weaknesses. The expected results should reveal groups of countries sharing the same configurations in terms of innovation process, and facing the same type of weaknesses, dysfunctions or systemic failures. By doing so, one should be able to identify the needs of each IS, i.e. the components that may need improvement and eventually public intervention. To do so, a principal component analysis and a hierarchical ascendant clustering technique have been implemented on the 37 IS, revealing 4 clusters of countries, depending on their NIS characteristics and advancement: 1) The Asian economies, 2) The lagging-behind and catching-up NIS, 3) The small opened systems, 4) The technological leaders. This analysis has been realized for the 2003-2005 and 2013-2015 periods, revealing that, if the general features of the clusters do not tend to change over time, some countries faced a change a modification of their status: Korea left the Asian group to join the leaders, Cyprus and Ireland opened their boarders to a larger extent in a decade.
Chapter V: Innovation policy typologyThis chapter is focused on the construction of an innovation policy typology based on the distributions of policies obtained in the database presented in chapter III. The results of this typology will be compared with the diagnosis realized in previous section to see if the weaknesses and needs of the NIS are effectively targeted by public action in innovation. Also, the aspects that could enhance or weaken such action, and their combination with other component of the NIS could be better understood. To this purpose, a multiple factor analysis has been implemented on the distributions of policy measures in terms of NIS components, followed by a hierarchical ascendant clustering, revealing groups of countries sharing the same characteristics in terms of policy design and implementation. 34 NIS have been examined (India, Brazil and Russia have been removed from the sample due to the bad quality of the information), using both the budget-weighted and non-budget-weighted distributions of measures on the 2007-2013 period. However, the results of this typology cannot be interpreted separately from the general innovation framework in which the public action is implemented. Indeed, countries having the same features in terms of beneficiaries and/or objectives in terms of policy do not necessarily share the same kind of IS. These implementation characteristics should rather be interpreted in light of the results obtained in the NIS diagnosis typology, in order to examiner if the public money effectively go where it is needed. In general, the different examined countries seem to effectively tackle their weaknesses, but countries facing the same types of problems do not implement the same type of policy mix, reinforcing the hypothesis that the innovation process is embedded in a large institutional framework that my orient public action in a direction rather than another. Two specific cases hold the attention in those results: South Korea, whose leader status came along with an improvement of the in force regulatory framework and a focus on private research, and Japan, dealing with research in the pharmaceutical research and ageing-population issues.
Chapter VI: The impact of macroeconomic and IS factors on the efficiency of public R&DAnother point of view can be adopted in an attempt to integrate the IS representations in policy evaluation techniques: the analysis of their impact on the efficiency of public R&D in leveraging private investments. In this chapter, a combination of two types of analysis is used to examine the problematic: the study of the efficiency of public R&D expenditure and its determinants on one hand, and the investigation of a possible crowding out effect of public R&D on the private one on another hand. The crowding out effect is translated into efficiency analysis, considering the BERD funded by government as an input, and the BERD funded by business as an output. And if an increase in the output leads to a decrease in the output, public intervention is considered to crowd out private initiative, as the firm may decide to replace its own investment with public money, instead of using it as an extra resource to increase its R&D activities. In this context, the IS as environment of R&D activities can be seen as a determinant of this efficiency, as it can strengthen or weaken this crowding out effect. The question asked in this section is the following: how to quantify and model the interdependencies existing between the different components of a NIS in order to integrate them in a quantitative analysis. This has been done in this study by implementing factorial analysis (Buesa, 2010) on a set of indicators collected in the Global Competitiveness Index database, and considered as descriptors of the different aspects of the innovation system. Those IS factors are: 1) the general STI environment, 2) the accessibility of the financial markets, 3) the internationalization of the system, 4) barriers to entrepreneurship and 5) the flexibility of labour regulation. Afterwards, these variables have been added as efficiency determinants in a stochastic frontier model assessing a possible crowding out effect between public and private initiatives. The main results showed that there is an additional effect of public R&d expenditure on private R&D investments (no crowding out). Moreover, the general STI environment and accessibility of financial markets have a positive impact on this efficiency, contrary to the presence of foreign stakeholders in the system. The two last factors remain insignificant. Those results suggest that, if public intervention should have an effect on the performances of the NIS, this relationship is also reciprocal: a well-functioning NIS may have a positive effect on the results of a policy measure.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

There is a growing awareness of, and commitment to, Responsible Investment (RI) in the institutional investment markets internationally. RI is defined as the consideration of environmental, social and/or governance (ESG) issues in long-term oriented investment decision-making. As the role of ESG in determining investment risk and opportunity becomes more evident, and as ESG data becomes more available, RI is increasingly seen as an area of potential investment innovation. This thesis applies institutional, evolutionary and relational economic geography theories to examine this trend, exploring the mainstreaming of RI through novel empirical and conceptual research. This thesis examines the investment learning processes and information channels available in Western liberal market economies of the UK, US and Australia. It adopts economic geography knowledge and innovation frames towards answering the question: 'Now that ESG information is more widely available in the investment markets, why has this not catalysed a greater shift towards RI integration in mainstream investment decisions?'. Learning, language and leadership factors within the institutional investment industry are all argued to help answer this question. This research uses a mixed method approach, with analysis based on a survey of 154 investment professions, 97 semi-structured interviews and a case of RI innovation. This thesis develops a conceptual framework of the communication channels and information sources used in investors' innovation-decision-process, drawing attention to the importance of both social and asocial learning processes in generating and sharing knowledge about climate issues within investment markets. Following this, the thesis examines the role of 'local buzz' and 'global pipelines' in facilitating access to, and uptake of, ESG information. Levels of buzz and pipelines are found to vary in different financial centres, and are facilitated by formal and informal networking linked to RI groups. Importantly, then, this thesis finds that both spatial and relational proximity influence investors' access to ESG information and RI knowledge. The second half of this thesis examines whether and how RI information, knowledge and practice can be integrated into existing individual and organisational decision-making frameworks. It highlights the need to better translate RI information into investment-relevant language, and provides an example of how environmentally-driven stranded assets can be reframed as a version of sunk costs, contributing novel spatial-temporal theorisations of this concept. Through an illustration of RI decision-making by the investment consultant Mercer and the University of Sydney endowment fund, this thesis highlights that the capacity to integrate RI through the investment chain does exist. However, willingness to do so is found to be hindered by institutional and organisational path dependent norms, reduced only in some firms by seeing RI as an innovative area of competitive advantage from growing client demand. This thesis therefore finds that RI is being adopted in increasingly more mainstream investment firms, but this is not always fully integrated throughout the firm, and that uptake is geographically varied based on exposure to networks of information and knowledge sharing, and institutional, organisational and individual norms. Ultimately, this thesis therefore contributes towards understandings of the processes underpinning the mainstreaming of RI, but also contributes to broader economic geographies of investment, knowledge sharing and innovation.

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Considering the growing importance of scientific knowledge for technological progress of companies, there is an important role played by universities. In this paper, the importance of the relationship between innovations and institutions in the interaction between universities and firms are analyzed through the framework of Evolutionary Economics and New Institutional Economics. The main models of university-industry interaction and its impact on scientific and technological policies in Brazil are presented, further an analysis of the Law of Innovation. The interaction between universities and companies in Brazil are analyzed using information from the directory of groups of CNPq and from the IBGE`s Industrial Research of Technological Innovation (Pintec). For empirical evidence of the study, are analyzed the Núcleo de Excelência em Estruturas Metálicas e Mistas (NEXEM), the result of partnership between the Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES) and Companhia Siderurgica de Tubarão (CST).
Tendo em vista a crescente importância do conhecimento científico para o progresso tecnológico das firmas, observa-se o importante papel desempenhado pelas universidades. Neste trabalho, procura-se analisar a importância da relação entre inovações e instituições na interação entre universidades e empresas por meio dos arcabouços da Economia Evolucionista e da Nova Economia Institucional. São apresentados os principais modelos de interação universidade-empresa e suas repercussões nas políticas científicas e tecnológicas do Brasil, além de uma análise da Lei de Inovação. A interação entre universidades e empresas no Brasil é analisada por meio das informações do Diretório de Grupos do CNPq e da Pesquisa Industrial de Inovação Tecnológica (Pintec), do IBGE. Para comprovação empírica do estudo, analisa-se o Núcleo de Excelência em Estruturas Metálicas e Mistas (NEXEM), resultado da parceria entre a Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES) e a então Companhia Siderúrgica de Tubarão (CST), hoje Arcelor Mittal Tubarão.

O setor ovino do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai foi afetado por períodos de progressos e crises que modificaram as estratégias e a dinâmica do agronegócio da ovinocultura. A transformação do mercado ovino, seus desequilíbrios e suas mudanças, expõem uma rica realidade empírica para uma análise a partir da Economia Evolucionária. Assim, o objetivo da tese foi comparar a trajetória de mudança histórica, econômica e institucional da produção ovina do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai e avaliar o impacto da crise internacional da lã na configuração do setor. A proposta metodológica da tese baseou-se no uso de dados primários e secundários para analisar e comparar um processo dinâmico, a fim de compreender o passado, caracterizar o presente e projetar o futuro do setor ovino - características centrais de um processo evolucionário. A análise da evolução histórica, produtiva e mudança estrutural na atividade ovina do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai tiveram um caráter descritivo e explicativo, por meio de técnicas de pesquisa bibliográfica e pelo uso de técnicas estatísticas de séries temporais, na estimação de modelos de regressão linear e regressão semilogarítmica. A caracterização da ovinocultura utilizou-se de uma pesquisa de campo, com aplicação de questionário semiestruturado em uma amostra de 120 produtores do Rio Grande do Sul e 80 produtores do Uruguai. A análise dos dados seguiu técnicas da estatística descritiva e o uso de testes de hipóteses paramétricos. A análise de projeção futura da atividade no Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai partiu da construção e estimação de duas classes de modelos de regressão logísticos: modelo econômico e institucional. A estimação de modelos de regressão linear e semilogarítmica comprovaram a mudança estrutural para as variáveis de rebanho ovino, produção de lã e produção de carne ovina das duas regiões, tendo como referência a crise internacional dos preços da lã em 1990/1991. Evidenciaram-se similaridades no perfil socioeconômico, produtivo e institucional dos ovinocultores amostrados do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai. Os dados primários indicaram que a atividade ovina é desenvolvida nas mais variadas estruturas fundiárias. O rebanho ovino dos estabelecimentos rurais apresenta tamanho diverso, sendo a bovinocultura de corte a principal atividade desenvolvida de forma integrada. Constatou-se que as instituições da ovinocultura apresentam dimensão conectiva - o contexto passado do setor moldou a situação presente, que por sua vez, irá formar as instituições do futuro, em um processo “hereditário”, análogo aos genes da biologia e aos processos de path dependence e causação cumulativa. Os resultados dos modelos logísticos demonstraram que variáveis estritamente produtivas e de ordem econômica não se relacionam significativamente com a pretensão de aumento da produção ovina no Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai. Em contrapartida, o modelo institucional estimado foi significativo (P<0,01), com variáveis significativas de envolvimento organizacional, motivação pelo lucro e idade do produtor (P<0,05). Os resultados confirmaram o domínio da Economia Evolucionária no estudo da dinâmica econômica, baseada na análise das mudanças estruturais e institucionais. O estudo da evolução da produção ovina no Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai demonstrou a possibilidade da aplicação de pressupostos econômicos evolucionários, buscando, além de compreender o fenômeno, estimular o fortalecimento desta aproximação teórico-empírica em diversos temas da economia rural.
The sheep production of Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay has experienced periods of growth and decline that affected the strategy of the agribusiness. This dynamic market provides a rich setting for an analysis based on evolutionary economics. The objective of this thesis is to compare the historical, economic and institutional changes in the sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay and to evaluate the impact of the international crises in the production of wool in the organization of this sector. The methodological premise of this thesis is the use of primary and secondary data to analyze and compare a dynamic process. The goal is to understand the past, characterize the present, and project the future of the sheep production – the key elements of an evolutionary process. The analysis of historical, productive and structural change in the sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay was descriptive in nature, including a literature review and several statistical techniques such as time series analysis, linear regression and semi-logarithmic regression. A field study with a semi-structured questionnaire and a sample of 120 farmers in Rio Grande do Sul and 80 farmers in Uruguay was conducted to characterize the sheep production. The empirical analysis used descriptive statistical techniques and the parametric test of hypotheses. The market projection of the future in the sheep production was based in the estimation of two types of logistic regression models: an economic model and an institutional model. The linear and semi-logarithmic regression models showed a structural change in the dependent variables, such as sheep flock, wool, and meat production in the two regions. Moreover, there were similarities in the socio-economic, productive and institutional profile of the sampled farmers in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay. The primary data indicated that the sheep production is developed in different types of farms area, being a source of income as well as subsistence. The size of the sheep flock across the different farms was diverse, reflecting the variance in the size of the properties, and the beef cattle was the main activity developed in an integrated form. Regarding the institutional profile, the institutions of environment of sheep production establishments presented a connective dimension – the past shaped the present, which in turn will shape the future, reflecting a hereditary process similar to the genes in biology and the path dependence processes. The results from the logistic models indicated that the dependent variables related strictly to economic production were not significantly correlated with the willingness to increase the ovine production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay. In contrast, the institutional model was significant (P <.01). The institutional variables related to farmers’ organizational involvement, motivation towards profit and age of farmer were significant (P <.05). Based on the analysis of structural and institutional changes, the results confirmed the dominance of evolutionary economics in the study of the economic dynamic. The present study provided an opportunity to apply the principles of evolutionary economics to understand the sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay, which can be used to explore several other topics in the context of agricultural economics.

Orientadores: Raul Vinhas Ribeiro, Antonio Carlos Moretti
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação
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Resumo: O desenvolvimento das áreas tradicionais da engenharia tem sido caracterizado pelo crescente emprego de modelos de otimização como paradigmas para problemas de tomada de decisão. Quando estes modelos possuem mais de um objetivo são chamados de Problemas de Otimização Multiobjetivo (POM) e uma alternativa apropriada na resolução deste tipo de problema é a utilização de Algoritmos Evolutivos. Os Algoritmos Evolutivos (AE) simulam o processo de evolução natural. Simplificadamente, o conjunto de soluções candidatas (população) sobre o qual operam as metodologias é modificado utilizando dois princípios básicos de evolução: seleção e variação. O objetivo principal desta dissertação consiste na análise da aplicação de Algoritmos Evolutivos na otimização multiobjetivo de portfólios onde o importante é obter uma correlação ótima entre retorno e risco. Diversos algoritmos evolutivos foram analisados na dissertação, sendo também analisadas versões híbridas dos mesmos. A principal contribuição da dissertação é a proposta de um procedimento de refinamento das soluções que se baseia no comportamento da série histórica para gerar uma população inicial mais adequada. Uma comparação do desempenho dos diferentes algoritmos híbridos com e sem este refinamento da solução foi realizada e o algoritmo com melhor desempenho foi identificado
Abstract: The development of traditional areas of engineering has been characterized by the increasing use of optimization models as paradigms for decision making problems. when these models have more than one objective, they are called multi-objective optimiation problems (POMs), and are a suitable alternative in solving this kind of problem is the usage of Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs). The EAs simulate the process of natural evolution. Briefly, the set of candidate solutions (population) in which the methodologies operate is modified using two basic principles of evolution: selection and variation. The main objective of this dissertation is to review the application of Evolutionary Algorithms in Multiobjective optimization of portfolios in which it is important to obtain an optimal correlation between return and risk . Several evolutionary algorithms have been analyzed in the dissertation, and also analyzed hybrid versions of the same. The main contribution of the dissertation is to propose a procedure for the refinement of solutions based on the behavior of the series to generate a better initial population. A comparison of the performance of different algorithms hybrids with and without this refinement of the solution was performed and the algorithm with best performance was identified
Mestrado
Automação
Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

A theoretical complexity framework to analyse the fundamental business dynamics of financial markets and economies is developed through coherently coupling selected aspects of Gould's evolutionary theory concepts to the essence of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. This framework is grounded, or articulated in quantitative terms, through mathematical methods inspired at its core by von Neumann's automata theory, and by Maldenbrot's fractal geometry. By consistently applying such framework to the analysis of the emerging features within the financial markets and economies through a range of different and diverse datasets, markets, business dynamics and research problems, an embryonic Complexity Evolutionary Theory on Financial and Economic Crises ('CETFEC') is developed. CETFEC characterises financial markets and economies as complex systems, whereby the emergence of financial crises is regarded as the natural consequence of fundamental evolutionary processes that lead relevant agents to adapt to different environmental conditions. As a result, the theory has a marked distinction that it does not pre-define, categorise or exercise a level of judgement about the behaviour of the agents within the system. CETFEC aims to identify the signals that lead the existence of the necessary conditions for the emergence of crises, rather than trying to predict the timing of crises. As a result, the nature of shocks may be either or both, endogenous and exogenous. Fundamentally it holds that the understanding of the distribution and the diversity of the agents provide essential signals to the resilience of the system.