Academic literature on the topic 'Events tourism'

The importance of tourism development for the country's economy and the growing popularity of festival events tourism in the context of music, gastronomic and ethno-festival events is summarized. The conceptual characteristics of festival events tourism that require in-depth research are clarified. The economic advantages of each direction of festival event tourism and their interrelation with other economic processes are listed. Special attention is paid to marketing, technological, social, historical and other features of their formation and progressive growth. Peculiarities (in the context of meeting social needs, formation of new directions of tourist culture, development of economic and resource opportunities, expansion of interstate relations, introduction of advanced technologies) and factors (demographic, economic, political, technical-technological, social-psychological, organizational- cultural) of the development of music, gastronomic and ethnic festival tourism are determined. The characteristics of festival events tourism in Ukraine and certain European countries are given, particularly, taking into account the number of festivals, their visitors, the average ticket price and seasonality. The preconditions of the formed significant difference between the tourist activity organization in Ukraine and the group of European countries are determined. The required formation and implementation of tourism policy on the state basis, including the creation of extensive institutional network of tourism regulators, particularly festival events tourism are emphasized. It is proved that problems solution in the tourist complex has positive effect on the economic security of the country requiring a reasonable choice of the relative areas of industry development. The advantages of holding joint (music, gastronomic, ethnic) festivals are substantiated, forming at the same time new direction of tourist culture. It is concluded that organization and running of festival events create a wide range of opportunities for the territories development improving the market infrastructure, accelerating the rate of information technology development and increasing business activity.

This article will explore the sustainability of events and festivals on tourism activities held in Cirebon, Indonésia. The city, known as the ‘City of Guardians’, is very popular with religious tourism destinations that are branded for tourism products. Events and festivals that are held on an ongoing basis can become tourist attractions, used as a marketing place, and a strategy to create an image of the destination, thus attracting tourists' visits. The methodology used is the document review approach and trend analysis to observe and analyze the various events and festivals held from 2015 to 2019 and the shariah marketing mix that they apply. This article concludes that the shariah marketing mix in promoting events and festivals from various existing tourism segments, such as religious and traditional tourism, arts and cultural tourism, culinary tourism, nature tourism, and local economic tourism, has demonstrated a new concept for marketing tourism products, which emphasizes aspects of locality and uniqueness. So that this tourist destination is not only more potential and crowded by tourists, but also has shown the sustainability of the event and the festival itself.

In the current tourist offer, tourism of events presents a kind of tourism that could contribute to extending the tourist demand, especially towards natural and anthropogenic values of a tourist site or region. West Morava's area is the southernmost Panonian-subregion in Serbia, and is related to the valley of the West Morava River. This region is also one of the most visited tourist destinations in Serbia. The aim of this paper is to establish the correlation between the formal events and spa resorts, rural, cultural, and gastronomic tourism in the area which also presents a significant transitive tourist destination.

Abstract The political, military, terrorist acts that took place during 2011-2017 have affected the tourism industry to a large extent, their effects being seen in the gradual decrease of the number of tourists generating income not only for tourism agencies, but also for tourism objectives for small merchants selling their products near tourist attractions. This has led to the closure of several souvenir shops, but also to the reduction of revenue generated by the flow of tourists to hotels, guides, restaurants. The Egyptian government has attempted to relaunch tourism by contracting a loan from the International Monetary Fund, reopening tourist attractions such as King Seti and Queen Nefertari, the Antiquities Ministry is continuing to finance the acquisition of metal detectors and scanners that are located in the tourist attractions included in the patrimony national. On the other hand, the fiscal measures adopted by the government, which impose VAT on local goods and services, have led to a price increase for all products and ultimately affecting not only citizens but also tourists who find that prices for tourist packages have increased within a few months. To highlight how great the influence that geopolitical events have on Egyptian tourism, data were analyzed for the period 2011-2017 of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics of Egypt, World Tourism Organization and the World Factbook..

Purpose Both groups are profiled in terms of travel-related and socio-demographic characteristics. Furthermore, the purpose of this paper is to address determinants of spending for each spectator group. Data collection was conducted using an on-site questionnaire. Analysis of variance between profile characteristics is based on χ2 and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests, whereas the analysis of determinants of spending builds on the Tobit model. Design/methodology/approach Recurring sport events that do not count among the mega sport event category have become a popular means of attracting tourists to a destination. Thus, research on different spectator groups attending such events is very relevant, yet surprisingly scarce. This study helps filling this void by a comparative analysis of two types of spectators present at the Professional Windsurf Association Windsurf World Cup on the German island of Sylt: travellers who come to Sylt solely for the event (event tourists) and travellers whose motivation to visit the island was not primarily driven by the event (regular tourists). Findings The results show that the two examined groups are clearly distinguishable, both in terms of profile characteristics and determinants of spending. This indicates that specific strategies seem advisable for sport event and tourism destination managers at mature tourist destinations. Originality/value The study’s major contribution to both tourism and event management literature is that it exposes key characteristics of and differences between both groups within a specific setting at a non-mega sport event at a mature tourist destination.

Festivals and cultural events have become an important part of the of destination branding strategies. More and more places are increasingly using events and cultural festivals to enhance their image positively and boost tourist flow. Cultural events and festivals have always had a special place in society. Although event tourism has not emerged recently, interest in cultural events in tourism literature has grown tremendously over the last few decades as they have become a key element in attracting tourist destinations. Destinations have also begun to see strategic destination branding as one of the ways to attract a large number of tourists. Therefore, the research in this area can be considered very relevant for the industry. This article examines the importance of various public events in the branding process of destinations and analyzes the impact of “Silk and spices” festival on image and brand of Bukhara tourism destination. The purpose of this study is to explore how visitors evaluate the impact of cultural events and festivals on enhancing the tourist image. The Silk and Spices Festival is undoubtedly one of the most popular Uzbek cultural festivals held annually internationally. Methodological questionnaires were developed to conduct the research. Questionnaires in the form of paper surveys were taken from international and local tourists who visited the Silk and Spices Festival to learn about the impact of this festival on the image of Bukhara. The findings show that there is a positive link between this cultural event and the city’s image.

Building tourism is long-term work. Many elements are involved, and their effectiveness cannot be calculated partially. At present, competition between cities/districts continues to increase, especially in city/district marketing that is tourist-friendly, iconic tourism events, and massive social media marketing. The strong destination image will impact on increasing the number of visits. This research aims to analyze the impact of city/district marketing power, tourist events, and social media on the image of tourist destinations in Maluku. The methodology in this research is based on quantitative analysis using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to discuss theory and see the relationship between city/district marketing variables, tourism events, social marketing media, and destination image. This study indicates that city/district marketing has a greater increase in strengthening the image of destinations compared to tourism events and social media marketing. This shows an effective strategy from the government in advancing tourism faster and more robust in increasing the image of a destination.

Rural tourism in Europe is a very important segment of the European tourism market, which is confirmed by numerous indicators. Rural areas are not just a food production base or underdeveloped areas, but for years they represent destinations of intense interest of tourists. The paper analyzes the tourist events of the developed European destinations, pointing out that a numerous trips resulting from satisfaction are precisely related to a particular event. Tourism is attached to a great importance, but also the expectations of tourists are growing, as well as their desire for specific experiences. As a positive example is Austria in function of the sustainable development of rural areas. Some parts of this country promote healthy food, rest and relaxation in healthy and preserved nature. Also, rural tourism in Spain is an important sector in the economic development of the country, with the more known events of the Bulls Race (Spanish: encierro), the Holy Sunday (Spanish: Semana Santa), Tomatina (Spanish: la Tomatina). Given that rural tourism has the potential to diversify the offer, various products have been developed that provide an adequate supply of France throughout the year such as summer festivals, crops, winter sports, cultural heritage and the like.

ABSTRACT Tourism villages in Indonesia are currently experiencing fairly rapid development. Data from the BPS recorded that there were 1302 tourist villages in 2014, and this number increased to 1734 tourist villages in 2018. The Village Fund is basically to improve people's welfare, by 1) creating jobs, 2) overcoming inequality, and 3) alleviating poverty. In its use, the Village Fund is the authority of the Village, is participatory and through self-management based on village resources is utilized in accordance with the village typology. The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of social media, accessibility, facilities, tourism events, and tourist attractions on the interest of tourists visiting Pagak Tourism Village, Banjarnegara. The type of research in this study is to collect data using a questionnaire. The population used in this study were visitors who came to Pagak Tourism Village, Banjarnegara, using a sample of 100 respondents in this study. The sampling method in this study used a non-probability sampling technique with a purposive sampling method. The results of the research show that Social Media, Accessibility, Facilities, Tourism Events, and Tourist Attractions have a positive effect on Tourist Visiting Interest in Pagak Tourism Village, Banjarnegara. Keywords: Social Media, Accessibility, Facilities, Tourism Events, Tourist Attractions, Tourists' Visiting Interest

Many destinations throughout the world have developed events portfolios as a strategic initiative to attract tourists and their associated economic benefits. The ability of events to attract people to a destination for the purpose of attending the event is well documented. However the ability of an event to add value to attract tourists before or after the event is not so clear. In other words, can an events portfolio positively influence the decision to visit a destination at a time when none of the promoted events are scheduled? As a first step towards answering this important question, this study explores the contribution of an events portfolio to a consumer’s perceptions of a destination and how this influences their decision to attend a destination under these circumstances. The proposed study conducts a protocol analysis based on consumer’s decision-making thoughts. Each participant was given a choice between two destinations in India. Participants were asked to ‘think out loud’ as they made the decision to visit one of two possible destinations, one with an events portfolio and the other without. However, their visit does not coincide with the events’ dates. The results suggest four lines of reasoning utilised by prospective tourists in the destination choice process: 1) destination image; 2) the timing of the event with respect the time of visit; 3) tourists’ level of interest in the event; and, 4) events not listed in the events portfolio might be scheduled during the time of the proposed visit. In course of finding lines of reasoning for cross-cultural issues it was found that culture, architecture, English language usage, and food are the major aspects that tourists consider while travelling to Indian destinations. In terms of the events portfolio, there is evidence of a preference for a ‘fit’ between the event and Indian culture.

This research examines the impact of inter-organisational relationships of public sector events agencies on events tourism strategy making within Australian state/territories. The global expansion of events tourism and sustained interest in networks and relationships as conduits to strategy underpin this topic. Although public sector institutional arrangements exist in many countries including Australia to develop events tourism, there is no known empirical research of inter-organisational relationships for strategy making in this domain. Against this background, the research problem of the thesis is: How and why do inter-organisational relationships of public sector events agencies impact upon events tourism strategy making within Australian states and territories? Based on a review of themes and issues within the two parent theories of tourism strategy and inter-organisational relationships, a theoretical framework and four research issues are developed. These issues are: RI 1: How does the public sector institutional environment impact upon events tourism strategies and the inter-organisational relationships that shape them, and why? RI 2: How do events tourism strategy forms and processes reflect and influence events agencies' inter-organisational relationships, and why? RI 3: What are the forms and characteristics of events agencies' inter- organisational relationships for shaping events tourism strategies, and why? RI 4: What are the incentives and disincentives for events agencies to engage in inter-organisational relationships for events tourism strategy making, and why? Because this research explores a new field within events tourism, it adopts a realism paradigm to uncover the 'realities' of events agencies' inter-organisational relationships and strategies. Two qualitative methodologies are adopted: the convergent interview technique (Carson, Gilmore, Perry, and Gronhaug 2001b; Dick 1990) and multiple case research (Perry 1998, 2001; Yin 1994). The convergent interviews serve to explore and refine the theoretical framework and the four research issues investigated in the multiple case research. These cases are represented by the inter-organisational relationships of events agencies in six Australian states/territories. Findings about the public sector institutional environment (research issue 1) show that events tourism strategies are influenced by different public sector policies and influences, the organisational arrangements for events tourism, the roles of events agencies and the lifecycle phase of events tourism in each state/territory. In relation to events tourism strategy forms (research issue 2), reactive/proactive strategies that respond to or address arising events or opportunities are common with a limited application of formal planning strategies. However, events agencies' strategy processes do reflect a range of strategic activities of importance. Inter-organisational relationships of events agencies (research issue 3) are typified by informal, government-led networks that influence, rather than develop, events tourism strategies. Finally, the importance of a number of incentives and disincentives for agencies to engage in inter-organisational relationships for events tourism strategy making is established. The final conceptual model depicts the themes within all four research issues and links between them to address the research problem. The conclusions of this research make a major contribution to events tourism theory and build upon theories in tourism strategy and inter-organisational relationships. Further research opportunities are presented by these conclusions and the conceptual model which may be explored using other methodologies or alternative research contexts. Practical implications of the research for policy makers and agency executives relate to policy-strategy linkages, public sector organisational arrangements for events tourism, strategy forms and processes and frameworks to engage stakeholders in inter-organisational relationships for strategy making. Knowledge of incentives and disincentives for these inter-organisational relationships also provides a platform for events agencies to reflect upon and revise their modes of governance for events tourism strategy making.

This research examines the impact of inter-organisational relationships of public sector events agencies on events tourism strategy making within Australian state/territories. The global expansion of events tourism and sustained interest in networks and relationships as conduits to strategy underpin this topic. Although public sector institutional arrangements exist in many countries including Australia to develop events tourism, there is no known empirical research of inter-organisational relationships for strategy making in this domain. Against this background, the research problem of the thesis is: How and why do inter-organisational relationships of public sector events agencies impact upon events tourism strategy making within Australian states and territories? Based on a review of themes and issues within the two parent theories of tourism strategy and inter-organisational relationships, a theoretical framework and four research issues are developed. These issues are: RI 1: How does the public sector institutional environment impact upon events tourism strategies and the inter-organisational relationships that shape them, and why? RI 2: How do events tourism strategy forms and processes reflect and influence events agencies' inter-organisational relationships, and why? RI 3: What are the forms and characteristics of events agencies' inter- organisational relationships for shaping events tourism strategies, and why? RI 4: What are the incentives and disincentives for events agencies to engage in inter-organisational relationships for events tourism strategy making, and why? Because this research explores a new field within events tourism, it adopts a realism paradigm to uncover the 'realities' of events agencies' inter-organisational relationships and strategies. Two qualitative methodologies are adopted: the convergent interview technique (Carson, Gilmore, Perry, and Gronhaug 2001b; Dick 1990) and multiple case research (Perry 1998, 2001; Yin 1994). The convergent interviews serve to explore and refine the theoretical framework and the four research issues investigated in the multiple case research. These cases are represented by the inter-organisational relationships of events agencies in six Australian states/territories. Findings about the public sector institutional environment (research issue 1) show that events tourism strategies are influenced by different public sector policies and influences, the organisational arrangements for events tourism, the roles of events agencies and the lifecycle phase of events tourism in each state/territory. In relation to events tourism strategy forms (research issue 2), reactive/proactive strategies that respond to or address arising events or opportunities are common with a limited application of formal planning strategies. However, events agencies' strategy processes do reflect a range of strategic activities of importance. Inter-organisational relationships of events agencies (research issue 3) are typified by informal, government-led networks that influence, rather than develop, events tourism strategies. Finally, the importance of a number of incentives and disincentives for agencies to engage in inter-organisational relationships for events tourism strategy making is established. The final conceptual model depicts the themes within all four research issues and links between them to address the research problem. The conclusions of this research make a major contribution to events tourism theory and build upon theories in tourism strategy and inter-organisational relationships. Further research opportunities are presented by these conclusions and the conceptual model which may be explored using other methodologies or alternative research contexts. Practical implications of the research for policy makers and agency executives relate to policy-strategy linkages, public sector organisational arrangements for events tourism, strategy forms and processes and frameworks to engage stakeholders in inter-organisational relationships for strategy making. Knowledge of incentives and disincentives for these inter-organisational relationships also provides a platform for events agencies to reflect upon and revise their modes of governance for events tourism strategy making.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Tourism and Hotel Management
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Num mundo altamente competitivo, os destinos turísticos procuram formas de se distinguir dos seus demais concorrentes, apoiando-se em novos produtos turísticos e elementos diferenciadores. Os grandes e mega eventos são uma das formas que as cidades usam em seu favor, procurando, assim, alargar e diversificar o mercado turístico, criar dinâmicas económicas sustentáveis e projectar internacionalmente uma imagem atractiva e competitiva. Os grandes e mega eventos têm uma história milenar no mundo e secular em Portugal, podendo ser destacados em todas as épocas eventos de grande envergadura e atractividade, sejam de carácter religioso, desportivo, cultural, económico ou outros. Apesar disso, só nas últimas décadas começaram a ser encarados como instrumento importante das políticas de turismo e das políticas urbanas. Por isso, não existe ainda um consenso alargado em relação a alguns dos conceitos que os caracterizam, desde logo ao nível das suas tipologias. No entanto, é reconhecido que os grande e mega eventos geram impactes diversos e relevantes na cidade que os acolhe, desde económicos, sociais, culturais e territoriais, sendo de salientar, a título de exemplo, a atracção de novos fluxos turísticos, o reforço de equipamentos e serviços culturais e turísticos, a renovação urbanística e o marketing urbano e turístico. Efectivamente, o sector dos eventos tem vindo a ganhar importância e um papel fundamental no que diz respeito ao reforço da competitividade e atractividade dos destinos turísticos, contribuindo, em simultâneo, para a emergência de novos produtos turísticos. Nas últimas décadas, a cidade de Lisboa e os seus protagonistas, institucionais e privados, alertos para o potencial dos eventos, têm recorrido à promoção e realização regular de grandes e mega eventos como instrumento de afirmação nacional e internacional da cidade e da sua região. “Qual a relevância e contributo dos Eventos para o amadurecimento e competitividade turística das cidades, em particular de Lisboa?” é, assim, a pergunta que se coloca, numa dissertação que incide e tenta aprofundar o conhecimento sobre o papel que os grandes e mega eventos têm na competitividade e atractividade turística das cidades.
In a highly competitive world, many destinations look for ways to distinguish themselves from its competitors, being supported by new tourist products and differentiating elements. Major and mega events are one of the ways that cities use fo their own benefit, trying to expand and diverse its tourist demands, creating new economic and sustainable dynamics, endeavouring always to expose at international level an attractive and competitive image. Major and mega events have an ancient history in the world and a centenary history in Portugal, making it possible to highlight at all times large scale events and with great attractiveness, of religious, sporting, cultural, economic or other wide valuable features. Nevertheless, only on the last decades major and mega events became an important instrument for tourism policy and urban policy. Therefore, up to now, there is no available agreement in terms of some of the concepts that implies, as for instance in typologies. However, it is acknowledged that major and mega events produce different impacts on the host city, at economic, social, cultural and territorial levels, being noteworthy the attraction of new tourism flows, the enhancement of equipment and services either within cultural and tourist, urban regeneration or place marketing. Indeed, events’ management and planning have gained greater importance and a key role in the strengthening the competitiveness and attractiveness of tourist destinations, simultaneously contributing to the arise of new tourism products. On the last decades, the city of Lisbon and its players, both institutional and private, became aware to the potential of events, which have led to the regular planning, promotion, and featuring of major and mega events as a top instrument of national and international projection of the city and its region. "What is the relevance and contribution of events for the maturity and tourist competitiveness of cities, particularly in Lisbon?" is the question, in a dissertation that focus and tries to deepen the knowledge about the role which major and mega events reflect on the tourist competitiveness and attractiveness of cities.

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Empresariais.
A realização de eventos tem vindo a ser considerada uma das mais importantes manifestações do Turismo em Portugal e no mundo, sendo notório que os mesmos geram uma dinâmica na economia das localidades. Assim, importa saber que tipos de impactos resultam desses eventos. A Viagem Medieval em Terra de Santa Maria é o maior evento de recriação medieval do País, constituindo uma oferta turística única que potencia a promoção do município, razão pela qual foi escolhido o estudo de caso - “Os impactos dos Eventos turísticos – O Caso da Viagem Medieval em Santa Maria da Feira”, que tem por objectivo analisar a percepção da população e das instituições locais sobre os impactos causados pelo evento, na localidade. Para o efeito, foram aplicados questionários para aferir os tipos de impactos – económicos, sociais, culturais e ambientais, e a sua natureza – positivos e negativos, em SMF. As principais conclusões apontam para:  A importância dos impactos económicos do evento para SMF: para as entidades e população respondentes (cerca de 72% e cerca de 80%, respectivamente) acreditam que o maior impacto económico positivo é o aumento do volume de transacções comerciais;  A importância social e cultural do evento turístico para SMF: sendo a valorização e preservação do património histórico e cultural o impacto sócio-cultural positivo, comum às entidades (com cerca de 83% das concordâncias) e à população respondente (com cerca de 70% das concordâncias). Por outro lado, o maior impacto negativo decorrente do evento refere-se ao aumento do congestionamento e tráfego urbano (cerca de 78%, na perspectiva nas entidades e cerca de 83%, na perspectiva da população respondente);  As preocupações ambientais relacionadas com o evento: as entidades (cerca de 70%) apontam para a utilização racional dos espaços como sendo o maior impacto ambiental positivo decorrente do evento. Esta percepção é confirmada pela cuidada ocupação do espaço do evento e pelo recente projecto de requalificação e expansão do parque do Cáster; O contributo dos impactos gerados pelo evento para o desenvolvimento de SMF, em que cerca de 32% dos impactos explicam o desenvolvimento da localidade. The production of events has been considered as one of the most important expressions of tourism in countries and in the world being notorious that the same events creates dynamics in the economy of towns. Therefore, it is important understanding what types of impact result from these events. The “Viagem Medieval em Terra de Santa Maria” is the biggest medieval recreation event in the Country, setting up an unique touristic offer that enhances the promotion of the municipality, being this the reason for the choice of the case study: - “The events touristics impacts – the case of Viagem Medieval in Santa Maria da Feira”, which has as objective the analysis of the perception of the local entities and population on the impacts caused by the event in the town. For that purpose, questionnaires were applied to assess the types of impacts - economic, social, cultural and environmental and their nature – positives and negatives, in Santa Maria da Feira. The main conclusions suggest for:  The economic impacts importance of the event for SMF; being the valorisation and preservation of the historical and cultural heritage, the positive socio-cultural impact, common to the entities (with approximately 83% of all concordances) and the respondent population (about 70% of all concordances). On the other hand, the largest negative impact resulting from the event refers to the increase urban traffic and congestion (approximately 78%, from the perspective of the entities and around 83%, from the respondent population’s perspective);  Social and cultural importance of the touristic event for the local population; for entities and population respondents (approximately 72% and nearly 80%, respectively) believes that the greatest positive economic impact is the increase in the volume of commercial transactions;  Environmental concerns related to the event: the entities (approximately 70%), Identify the rational use of spaces as being the largest positive environmental impact VIII resulting from the event. This perception is confirmed by careful event’s space occupancy and the recent plan of the rehabilitation and expansion of Cáster Park;  The contribution of the impacts event for the development of SMF, where approximately 32% of impacts explain the development of the locality.

The aim of this research was to examine the factors influencing in-trip tourists’ adoption of information and communications technology (ICT) tools/applications which support sustainable tourism. While ICT is a source of competitive advantage for businesses, there is limited research on how ICT can be used to support sustainable tourism development. At the same time, there has been greater consumer awareness about sustainable tourism but a challenge in translating this knowledge into action. This thesis therefore sought to explore and integrate these complementary elements. The study adopted a sequential mixed methods approach. Phase 1 employed an e-survey among sixty-six (66) eTourism experts, while Phase 2 of the study involved thirty (30) semi-structured face-to-face interviews with leisure tourists in the city of Edinburgh. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyse Phase 1 and thematic analysis for Phase 2. The findings from the survey demonstrated that location based services were identified amongst the main ICT applications to support sustainable tourism. Geo-caching, ambient intelligence and context aware applications were among the new or emerging applications that eTourism experts felt were likely to change the way tourists experience a destination in the future. The interviews demonstrated that social connectedness motivated the use of in-trip ICT with social media being the primary platform. Mobile value elements, personal innovativeness and perceived enjoyment were postulated as influencing use behaviour. The results also illustrated the need for destinations to mix new media with some traditional strategies based on the destination’s info-structure, tourists’ source markets, tourists’ profiles and sources of in-trip information. This thesis has made an original contribution to knowledge by examining the actual use of in-trip ICTs by tourists in relation to sustainable tourism. Future research needs to explore and measure how perceived enjoyment, personal innovativeness and mobile value elements influence technology use behaviour.

The primary goal of the study was to identify key success factors for the management of wedding tourism in South Africa. This goal was achieved by firstly conducting a literature study to determine the key success factors of strategic management for special events as stated in books, articles and other sources. Secondly, wedding tourism was analysed to provide an overview of the wedding tourism industry and weddings as tourism products. Thirdly, the results of the empirical research were discussed followed by the conclusions and recommendations made with regard to further research. From the literature study, aspects regarding strategic management were discussed namely, the strategic management process, marketing for special events, human resource management, financial management and operational management. These aspects were included in the questionnaires for the empirical research. Two different questionnaires were developed, one for wedding planners and one for owners/managers of wedding venues in the Gauteng and North West provinces. The purpose of the questionnaires was to gather information on the key success factors for wedding tourism and to gain insight of the wedding tourism industry. Personal interviews were held with wedding planners and owners1 managers of wedding venues; questionnaires were also distributed via email. All the data was processed by the North-West University's Statistical Consultation Services. A confirmatory factor analysis was done to produce a small amount of factors. The following factors were identified: strategic planning; SWOT analysis, human resources, financial management, market segmentation, promotion and operational management. After analysing the data it was clear that operational services like ensuring high levels of hygiene, having a liquor license, accessibility, secure parking and that services must meet the needs of guests were considered extremely important aspects for a wedding venue. The following aspects were considered extremely important by wedding planners: services must meet the needs of guests, offer unique products and develop a checklist as control mechanism. Owners of wedding tourism products and wedding planners have to consider and apply the key success factors in order to grow the industry and create sustainable products.
Thesis (M.Com. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2007.

This study highlights the treatment of the smaller stakeholders for whom the social legacy impacts are potentially the greatest within mega-event planning. The aim of this research is to develop a framework of urban regeneration legacy associated with the hosting of mega-events where the local community are key stakeholders, and where they can gain long-term positive social legacies. Mega-events, such as the Olympic Games, are widely held to bring a variety of positive social benefits through the process of urban regeneration. This research is built around the development of a conceptual framework of social legacy impacts arising from the urban regeneration planned through hosting the Olympic Games. Social legacy impacts, also referred to as soft impacts, are those which are intangible and affect individuals within their everyday lives in the longer term. This research is concerned with the social legacy impacts of The London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the ‘community’ (being defined as those, who have either lived, worked or have some social connection with the area within the proposed Olympic Park site) in the Lower Lea Valley site in east London, and how they have or have not been recognised as stakeholders. A stakeholder being an individual or group who will be affected by the actions, decisions or policies of the Games organisers, within the planning of the Games. Key informant interviews have been undertaken with individuals who have had a stake in the planning of the Barcelona Games of 1992, Sydney Games of 2000 and the planning of the London 2012 Games. Each interview involved a semi-structured conversation, encouraging the interviewees to recount their experiences of the planning of these mega-events from the perspectives of the communities involved and the social legacy planning. Interviews were analysed thematically. The main themes to emerge focus on legacy identification, community identification, the importance of regeneration for the existing community, the need to identify power relationships and the need for knowledge transfer and experience. The study shows that, for some ‘communities’, the opportunity to gain positive social benefits are too late as they themselves have already been relocated. The study has developed the Olympic Legacy Management Stakeholder framework to help communities to become more active as stakeholders within future mega-event planning through, amongst other things, recognising the different power relationships that exist.

Purpose – This study seeks to explore residents’ attitudes towards cultural events in Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB), South Africa. The study further discusses the cultural values and social realities of the diverse socio-economic landscape inherent to the city. Equally, the extent of stakeholder involvement has been reflected throughout the study as an indispensable requirement towards sustainable tourism in the city. The study presents that customising cultural events according to the cross-cultural typology has far-reaching consequences in enhancing the image of NMB and induces stakeholder engagement. This study is based on the notion of Social Capital and Stakeholder theory and draws on the multi-cultural phenomenon as the thrust of the study is based on attracting residents’ to cultural events. The literature study indicated that the concept of Social Capital and stakeholder collaboration are mutually exclusive and empirical analysis indicates a strong relationship between the factors relative to residents’ attitudes. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study is located in the positivism paradigm and comprises literature and exploratory research to examine the supposition between the independent variables and the attitudes of residents’ in the NMB. The independent variables underlined in the proposed model are embedded in the literature undertaken. Equally, the thrust of the study is underpinned in Social Capital theory and the Stakeholder theory and is evident throughout this study. In this study, the convenience sampling and snowball sampling methods were employed to obtain a representative sample of residents from the NMB. A questionnaire was used in this study to solicit responses pertaining to the biographical information and questions relating to the factors of perceived satisfaction of residents in the NMB in relation to cultural events. A total number of 3,659 residents participated in this study. The researcher conducted this study by means of testing the constructs of the measuring instrument employed, as well as providing a causal model of relationships between the independent variables and the residents’ attitudes of cultural events in NMB. Findings – The results confirm the reliability and validity of the scales tested on a sample of 3,659 residents, collected using the questionnaire in Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan area. The empirical analysis indicates relationships among the independent factors; Social Capital and Stakeholder Profile, where a Pearson’s correlation of 0.50 exists. Furthermore, descriptive findings indicate that there is an overall positive tendency in attitudes for cultural events in the city. The practical significance as identified in the Cohen’s d test for significance infers that the moderating factors in the conceptual model prove that age, area code, home language, ethnicity and home language exert influence in determining residents’ attitudes in the city. Practical Implications – This study identifies the importance of leveraging the cross-cultural typology underscored the Stakeholder theory. Equally, for destination marketing organisations (DMOs) this study can glean insights in respect of the profile of residents for cultural event marketing and their response as stakeholders in the organisation of a cultural event. Social Implications – This study aims to gain a better understanding of the residents’ attitudes of the cultural events hosted by the NMB, its Social Capital and its relationship with varying demographic niches and cultural-centric insights that align to the ideologies pertaining to global citizenship. Originality/Value – This present study makes a contribution to the theories of Social Capital and Stakeholder theory by investigating its roles in determining residents’ attitudes of cultural events in a city. Moreover, it discusses the role of the factors as inducing variables for residents’ motivation by employing marketing principles related to the unique and emotional selling proposition philosophy. Equally, the study espouses the significance of promoting cultural events to extent that it acts as a platform to promote socio-economic development; employment opportunities, improved living standards, improving city infrastructure and environmental protection of a destination and justifies the expedition of Social Capital on the attitudes of residents’.

Abstract This chapter is dedicated to the study of garden-related events and festivals. Most gardens have festivals and events to drive attendance, with the secondary reason to bring in new visitors and perhaps cater to, or attract new, membership. The chapter highlights a selection of these events and special attractions from around the garden world. Examples are chosen from art events, rock concerts, urban events, and the bizarre and different.

Abstract This chapter is dedicated to the study of garden-related events and festivals. Most gardens have festivals and events to drive attendance, with the secondary reason to bring in new visitors and perhaps cater to, or attract new, membership. The chapter highlights a selection of these events and special attractions from around the garden world. Examples are chosen from art events, rock concerts, urban events, and the bizarre and different.

The striving for achieving a more even development of Bulgarian tourism both in time and in territorial terms makes the topic of the report especially relevant. Although widespread, anthropogenic tourist resources are not evenly distributed throughout Bulgaria. The purpose of the paper is not only to examine the unevenness of their territorial location, but also to indicate the reasons for this, as well as the reflection of this fact on the tourism industry. The analysis is at the level of administrative areas. The areas that are presented with dignity in terms of sites and events (anthropogenic tourist resources) are the cultural centers of our country. Accordingly, they are most attractive to tourists. The data reviewed in the paper show that the tourism industry of the districts that make full use of their anthropogenic tourism resources is more competitive than that of most of the other districts.

For the event organiser, Sabah is one of the states that becomes a focal point. As Sabah is one of the most popular tourist destinations, several large events such as the Sabah Jazz Festival, Pesta Lepa-lepa, Pesta Kaamatan, Pesta Kalimaran, and other festivals have been held. However, COVID 19’s disruptive impacts have had such a significant impact on the event sector. Most of the events are getting cancelled or postponed all over the world. Over the past several months, a significant number of meetings and conferences have been redesigned as virtual events. However, the event industry needs to know the readiness of the public towards the shifting from the physical to the digital. Therefore, the objective of this research is to determine the event audience readiness for digital events. It is important for the event industry to know the readiness and a good online platform in providing a good service to their audience. A quantitative method was used to conduct this study. The main finding will see how far our communities is ready to adapt the new norm. Based on the finding it shows that event audience are willing to adopt the event digitisation, and this is due to the impact of the COVID 19pandemic which was accelerating changes in event audience behaviour. This research will benefit the event organisers and help them prepare strategic plana to cater to the audience needs.

Spiritual tourism also known as one type of special interest tourism activity based on the expectations related with spirituality is now continuously developing and is being demanded by tourists. This demand is in line with the improvement of tourist information technology. Spiritual tourism will continuously develop due to the changes in the needs of the market. Initially, spiritual activities are directly connected with religion, and they have now shifted to the idea to something that is related with spiritual activities which include, creating comfort, pleasure and quality experience. Despite of the rapid development, it can be seen in the academic writing research, in which, there are still several researchers who argued religious and spiritual tourism as the same type of tourism. The phenomenon of religious spiritual tourism is more complex in the modern era and has been recognised as a separate tourism. Internationalising religious spiritual tourism in the context of people, places, and events has become a challenge. Religious spiritual tourism requires a new mode as a form of quality tourism development so that it will organise sociocultural life with varieties of unique customs and become a tool to increase regional income, creating job opportunities and indirectly improve Malaysians’ quality of life. Thus, there is an urge to integrate the religious aspect into spiritual tourism. Hence, this research aims to develop an Islamic Spiritual Tourism Model (ISToM) based on Maqasid As Shariah. It is hoped that the findings will contribute to the existing knowledge about values and provide implications for developing spiritual tourism sustainably.

The article presents the resources for business tourism in Sofiya and Plovdiv. These events are described in the "Catalogue of fairs and exhibitions in Bulgaria". In Sofia, such events are held at the Inter Expo Center, the Central Department Store, the National Palace of Culture, the Universiade Hall and Sofia Tech Park, while in Plovdiv they are organized only at the International Fair. The article uses the terms exhibition day, when a fair or exhibition is held and calendar day when one or more exhibitions are held in the city. Intensity interval is the ratio between the exhibition days and the calendar days by rounding to the second decimal place and it can be explained as the number of exhibitions that residents (visitors, tourists) of (in) a city can visit in one day.

Coffs Harbour on the north coast of NSW is a highway city sandwiched between the Great Dividing Range and the Pacific Ocean. For thousands of years it was the traditional land of the numerous Gumbaynggirr peoples. Tourism now appears to be the major industry, supplanting agriculture and timber getting, while a large service sector has grown up around a sizable retirement community. It is major holiday destination. Located further away from the coast in the midst of a dairy farming community, Bellingen has become a centre of alternative culture which relies heavily on a variety of festivals activated by energetic tree changers and numerous professionals who have relocated from Sydney. Both communities rely on the visitor economy and there have been considerable changes to how local government in this region approach strategic planning for arts and culture. The newly built Coffs Harbour Education Campus (CHEC) is an experiment in encouraging cross pollination between innovative businesses and education and incorporates TAFE NSW, Coffs Harbour Senior College and Southern Cross University as well as the Coffs Harbour Technology Park and Coffs Harbour Innovation Centre all on one site. The 250 seat Jetty Memorial Theatre is the main theatre in Coffs Harbour for local and touring productions while local halls and converted theatres are the mainstay of smaller communities in the region. As peak body Arts Mid North Coast reports, there is a good record of successful arts related events which range across all genres of music, art, sculpture, Aboriginal culture, street art, literature and even busking and opera. These are mainly managed by passionate local volunteers.

Augmented reality is one of the most modern information visualization technologies. Number of scientific studies on different aspects of augmented reality technology development and application is analyzed in the research. Practical examples of augmented reality technologies for various industries are described. Very often augmented reality technologies are used for: social interaction (communication, entertainment and games); education; tourism; areas of purchase/sale and presentation. There are various scientific and mass events in Ukraine, as well as specialized training to promote augmented reality technologies. There are following results of the research: main benefits that educational institutions would receive from introduction of augmented reality technology are highlighted; it is determined that application of augmented reality technologies in education would contribute to these technologies development and therefore need increase for specialists in the augmented reality; growth of students' professional level due to application of augmented reality technologies is proved; adaptation features of augmented reality technologies in learning disciplines for students of different educational institutions are outlined; it is advisable to apply integrated approach in the process of preparing future professionals of new technological era; application of augmented reality technologies increases motivation to learn, increases level of information assimilation due to the variety and interactivity of its visual representation. Main difficulties of application of augmented reality technologies are financial, professional and methodical. Following factors are necessary for introduction of augmented reality technologies: state support for such projects and state procurement for development of augmented reality technologies; conduction of scientific research and experimental confirmation of effectiveness and pedagogical expediency of augmented reality technologies application for training of specialists of different specialties; systematic conduction of number of national and international events on dissemination and application of augmented reality technology. It is confirmed that application of augmented reality technologies is appropriate for training of future specialists of new technological era.

Located a two-and-a-half hour drive south of Perth, Busselton is one of the largest and fastest growing regional centres in WA, a lifestyle services hub and the gateway to the internationally renowned wine region and popular tourist destination of Margaret River. Promoted by the City of Busselton council as the ‘Events Capital of WA’, Busselton has a strong festival and events economy that fuels local creative and arts production, supported by demographic shifts and population growth that is resulting in more creatives living and working in the city.

Cash is still widely used in Colombia, even among merchants that accept payment cards. Indeed, 60% of these merchants use dissuasive strategies to make their clients pay with cash. This shows that merchant service costs (MSC) for cards are not optimal in the sense of the Tourist Test. We present estimates of MSC compatible with the Tourist Test, such that merchants are indifferent between being paid with cash or cards. We find that cash is less costly than cards at the average retail-sales transaction-value, hence there is no positive optimal MSC at this ticket value. For the average card transaction ticket, the optimal MSC would be positive but far below the rates charge by the industry (0.74% in a short-term scenario). Yet, the additional incentive that sales-tax evasion provides to cash payments reduces the Tourist Test MSC to 0.44%. Our estimates for long-term scenarios yield even lower optimal MSC. An average price cap regulation that strikes a middle ground between these figures, and is complemented with sales-tax evasion measures, should discourage merchant strategies that deter consumers from paying with cards and will accommodate the wide heterogeneity in merchants´ scale, payment processing processes and ticket size. These results should be taken as a guideline as the estimations depend on the underlying assumptions and only consider the merchant´s side of the card industry.

Pivot is a movement of radical ideas for the Caribbean of the future. In 2020, the IDB and its partners (Caribbean Climate Smart-Accelerator (CCSA), Destination Experience (DE), and Singularity University) launched The Pivot Movement and asked the people of the Caribbean to think of big ideas to transform the region. A small group came together at The Pivot Event to design 9 moonshots for electric vehicles, digital transformation and tourism. Pivot: The Future Makers is a comic book produced by the Pivot partners and illustrated by Caribbean artists. In it, the 9 moonshots have been developed into fictional stories as a simple and powerful means of conveying possible, probable futures, to help us visualize the Caribbean in 2040.

The objective of this report is to present an actionable programme to bring initial moonshot ideas into fully accomplishable projects, ready to be deployed. It comprises three parts. The first part, namely Section 2, provides a background and development avenues for three broad domains of Caribbean economies, namely electric vehicles, digital transformation, and tourism. The second part breaks down the realisation of moonshot ideas into steps using a comprehensive roadmap, which lays out, in sequential point-by-point form, how to steer the coherent long-term deployment of moonshot ideas into concrete actionable projects. Sections 3.1 (From Dreams to Deployment) and 3.2 (Overview of Sequential Tasks by Stakeholder Category) present this in detail. Finally, in the third part, Sections 3.3 and 3.4 define and illustrate the roadmap of moonshot ideas identified during the PIVOT Event. In elaborating these two sections, key emphasis was put on the tasks to be conducted during the preparedness phase (Phase 2 of the roadmap). The conclusion summarizes all dimensions of the roadmap into three illustrations, one for each domain, depicting all nine moonshots from the PIVOT Event.

For more than a year, the Caribbean economics team at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has focused on the potential implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for lives and livelihoods across the region. The pandemic is still with us, but there is hope that the cycles of lockdowns and containment measures will eventually come to an end as vaccination programs progress, even if unevenly, across the region. However, the availability of vaccine supply remains a concern, and the pandemic continues to pose a constraint for the recovery of key sectors such as tourism and local services sectors. This edition of the Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin focuses on two topics: (1) forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, based on the April 2021 WEO, and (2) financial sector risks. In general, regional economies are embarking on a fragile path to recovery. Continued progress with vaccination programs, credible medium-term fiscal programs, and continued attention to financial vulnerabilities will be needed to push that path to recovery forward.

Theodore Roosevelt National Park (THRO) in western North Dakota was established for its historical connections with President Theodore Roosevelt. It contains not only historical and cultural resources, but abundant natural resources as well. Among these is one of the best geological and paleontological records of the Paleocene Epoch (66 to 56 million years ago) of any park in the National Park System. The Paleocene Epoch is of great scientific interest due to the great mass extinction that occurred at its opening (the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event), and the unusual climatic event that began at the end of the epoch (the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, an anomalous global temperature spike). It is during the Paleocene that mammals began to diversify and move into the large-bodied niches vacated by dinosaurs. The rocks exposed at THRO preserve the latter part of the Paleocene, when mammals were proliferating and crocodiles were the largest predators. Western North Dakota was warmer and wetter with swampy forests; today these are preserved as the “petrified forests” that are one of THRO’s notable features. Despite abundant fossil resources, THRO has not historically been a scene of significant paleontological exploration. For example, the fossil forests have only had one published scientific description, and that report focused on the associated paleosols (“fossil soils”). The widespread petrified wood of the area has been known since at least the 19th century and was considered significant enough to be a tourist draw in the decades leading up to the establishment of THRO in 1947. Paleontologists occasionally collected and described fossil specimens from the park over the next few decades, but the true extent of paleontological resources was not realized until a joint North Dakota Geological Survey–NPS investigation under John Hoganson and Johnathan Campbell between 1994–1996. This survey uncovered 400 paleontological localities within the park representing a variety of plant, invertebrate, vertebrate, and trace fossils. Limited investigation and occasional collection of noteworthy specimens took place over the next two decades. In 2020, a new two-year initiative to further document the park’s paleontological resources began. This inventory, which was the basis for this report, identified another 158 fossil localities, some yielding taxa not recorded by the previous survey. Additional specimens were collected from the surface, among them a partial skeleton of a choristodere (an extinct aquatic reptile), dental material of two mammal taxa not previously recorded at THRO, and the first bird track found at the park. The inventory also provided an assessment of an area scheduled for ground-disturbing maintenance. This inventory is intended to inform future paleontological resource research, management, protection, and interpretation at THRO. THRO’s bedrock geology is dominated by two Paleocene rock formations: the Bullion Creek Formation and the overlying Sentinel Butte Formation of the Fort Union Group. Weathering of these formations has produced the distinctive banded badlands seen in THRO today. These two formations were deposited under very different conditions than the current conditions of western North Dakota. In the Paleocene, the region was warm and wet, with a landscape dominated by swamps, lakes, and rivers. Great forests now represented by petrified wood grew throughout the area. Freshwater mollusks, fish, amphibians (including giant salamanders), turtles, choristoderes, and crocodilians abounded in the ancient wetlands, while a variety of mammals representing either extinct lineages or the early forebearers of modern groups inhabited the land. There is little representation of the next 56 million years at THRO. The only evidence we have of events in the park for most of these millions of years is isolated Neogene lag deposits and terrace gravel. Quaternary surficial deposits have yielded a few fossils...

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This report presents a probabilistic disaster risk assessment model for Barbados, focusing on beach erosions caused by episodic cyclonic hazard events and chronic effects associated with maritime climate. The probabilistic risk is expressed in terms of direct and indirect economic losses due to expected repair costs and downtimes, and income losses due to declines in tourism visitation and touristic usage in affected beach areas. The Comprehensive Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) was used as a methodological model for conducting this study.