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Bagal, Dilip Kumar, and Pravajyoti Patra. "COVID-19: A Never Seen Pandemic." YMER Digital 21, no. 08 (August 8, 2022): 321–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.37896/ymer21.08/27.
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People have long been affected by epidemics and pandemics of communicable illnesses. The outbreaks have been around for thousands of years. Even in our modern day, epidemics have ravaged civilization till it leads people to despair. In the meanwhile, viruses have always offered huge difficulties that have ignited horrific epidemics and pandemics. A pandemic is the widespread spread of a new sickness. Viral respiratory diseases, such as those caused by a novel influenza virus or the coronavirus COVID-19, are the most likely to evolve into a pandemic. A pandemic is not the same as an epidemic. In an epidemic, many more cases of a health condition occur than would typically develop in a community or area, however the ailment does not move outside. The World Health Organization (WHO) is responsible for declaring when a worldwide epidemic is underway. The WHO achieves this by monitoring outbreaks of a disease and receiving advice from worldwide health experts. This paper depicts the impact of COVID-19 in globally in various fields and also visualize the current status of this pandemic. Keywords: COVID-19; Confirmed Case; Pandemic; WHO
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Pickersgill, Martyn. "Pandemic Sociology." Engaging Science, Technology, and Society 6 (August 25, 2020): 347. http://dx.doi.org/10.17351/ests2020.523.
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In 1990, the sociologist Phil Strong wrote about “epidemic psychology” as part of his research on the recent history of AIDS. Strong described vividly how epidemics of fear, of explanation and moralization, and of (proposed) action accompanied the epidemic of the AIDS virus per se. In this essay, I draw on these formulations to think through the current COVID-19 crisis, illustrating too a pandemic of inequality. In so doing, I provide a sketch of a pandemic sociology.
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Kamalrathne, Thushara, Dilanthi Amaratunga, Richard Haigh, Lahiru Kodituwakku, and Chintha Rupasinghe. "Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Response in a Multi-Hazard Context: COVID-19 Pandemic as a Point of Reference." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 21, no. 9 (September 19, 2024): 1238. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21091238.
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Infectious diseases manifesting in the form of epidemics or pandemics do not only cause devastating impacts on public health systems but also disrupt the functioning of the socio-economic structure. Further, risks associated with pandemics and epidemics become exacerbated with coincident compound hazards. This study aims to develop a framework that captures key elements and components of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and response systems, focusing on a multi-hazard context. A systematic literature review was used to collect data through peer-reviewed journal articles using three electronic databases, and 17 experts were involved in the validation. Epidemiological surveillance and early detection, risk and vulnerability assessments, preparedness, prediction and decision making, alerts and early warning, preventive strategies, control and mitigation, response, and elimination were identified as key elements associated with epidemic and pandemic preparedness and response systems in a multi-hazard context. All elements appear integrated within three interventional phases: upstream, interface, and downstream. A holistic approach focusing on all interventional phases is required for preparedness and response to pandemics and epidemics to counter their cascading and systemic effects. Further, a paradigm shift in the preparedness for multi-hazards during an epidemic or pandemic is essential due to the multiple challenges posed by concurrent hazards.
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Mitrokhin, Oleg V., Nina A. Ermakova, Ekaterina I. Akimova, and Ekaterina A. Sidorova. "COVID-19 — ways to improve the state preparedness for pandemia." HEALTH CARE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION 66, no. 1 (March 4, 2022): 5–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.47470/0044-197x-2022-66-1-5-10.
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Introduction. Tasks are to execute a study of the preparedness of government and health systems for a pandemic to develop proposals for their modernization. The author proceeds from the hypothesis that epidemic and pandemic diseases will threaten society in the foreseeable future, and therefore it is necessary to develop preventive strategies for states to be prepared for new threats. The article summarizes the experience of government and public health in a pandemic of coronavirus infection. Purpose. To examine pandemic preparedness of public administration and health systems and develop proposals for their modernization. Material and methods. There was made an expert analysis of the problematic issues of public administration in the implementation of preventive and anti-epidemic measures using statistical materials and publications of domestic and foreign authors. The study applied information and legal databases, documents of the World Health Organization, health authorities of countries in conditions of coronavirus infection pandemic, analytical, informational, statistical methods of research. Results. Measures are proposed to modernize states’ preparedness for possible pandemics (epidemics) for the medium and long term. Conclusion. The author has proposed an algorithm for the activities of the government in preparedness to combat a pandemic (epidemic). It is necessary to introduce the principles of “double” (including epidemics) use of premises, buildings and structures and “double” (including epidemics) education of specialists in the field of veterinary medicine and biology, as well as paramedical personnel.
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Earn, David J. D., Junling Ma, Hendrik Poinar, Jonathan Dushoff, and Benjamin M. Bolker. "Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 44 (October 19, 2020): 27703–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004904117.
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Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster (“accelerated”). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration.
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Zhang, Jun, Xiangdong Liu, and Xiting Jin. "Quantitative Assessment for the Impact of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic on Economic Viability in A Domestic Area." SHS Web of Conferences 152 (2023): 04006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202315204006.
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To combine the economic viability of urban areas with a quantitative condition that can characterize “epidemic” and “Pandemic” diseases, we use the factor analysis method to achieve index dimensionality reduction and subjective and objective integration method to achieve optimal weight distribution. We develop a judgment model by taking into account broad factors such as the epidemic situation, population, medical care, economy, and policy. On this basis, we chose 15 common infectious diseases as detection data and used the judgment model to obtain the specific quantitative judgment conditions of “spread, outbreak, epidemic, and pandemic.” The threshold for defining epidemics is between 3 and 5, and the threshold for defining pandemics is greater than 5.
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Williams, Kimberly D., Lee M. Pachter, and Scott D. Siegel. "Epidemic Meets Pandemic:." Delaware Journal of Public Health 6, no. 2 (July 2020): 42–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.32481/djph.2020.07.012.
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Kramer, Mikhail A. "PANDEMIC ECONOMICS AND HUMAN CAPITAL." Interexpo GEO-Siberia 3, no. 1 (July 8, 2020): 104–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.33764/2618-981x-2020-3-1-104-113.
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Theoretical regularities between epidemic and sanitary processes that form epidemics and the assessment of human capital are presented. Infections and pathogens are satellites of human evolution, i.e. they form the economic relations and costs of quarantining or eliminating pandemics. In Russia, there is a positive experience of biogeochemical activity, which is enshrined in sanitary rules and regulations. It is proposed to implement strategies for the development of territories taking into account infectious, epidemic and sanitary hierarchies. Quarantine is the principle of building a geospatial platform that includes administrative divisions and agglomerations.
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Mikulec, Anna, and Marek Zborowski. "Problem głodu na świecie w świetle pandemii COVID-19." Sztuka Leczenia 37, no. 2 (December 30, 2022): 65–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.4467/18982026szl.22.016.16675.
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Głód nadal stanowi poważny i dotkliwy, problem na świecie. Nawet podczas pandemii COVID-19 większy odsetek ludzi umiera z głodu niż z powodu koronawirusa. Czy zatem czeka nas nowa epidemia, tym razem głodu, na świecie? Celem pracy było przedstawienie obecnej sytuacji związanej z brakiem bezpieczeństwa żywnościowego na świecie w aspekcie trwającej jeszcze pandemii COVID-19. Należy spodziewać się, że w najbliższych latach będziemy zmuszeni mierzyć się z ogromnym kryzysem humanitarnym. W związku z powagą problemu przed całą ludzkością stoi dziś zadanie mające na celu zapobiegnięcie rozprzestrzenianiu się epidemii głodu na świecie. ABSTRACT The problem of hunger in the world in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic Hunger continues to be a serious and pressing problem in the world. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, more people are dying of hunger than of the coronavirus. So, are we going to face a new epidemic, this time of hunger, in the world? The aim of the study was to present the current situation related to the lack of food security in the world in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It is to be expected that in the coming years we may face a huge humanitarian crisis and that all mankind is facing a sentence today aimed at preventing the spread of the hunger epidemic in the world.
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Koch, Tom. "Hubris: The Recurring Pandemic." Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 9, no. 1 (October 22, 2014): 51–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.107.
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AbstractThe 2014 Ebola outbreak has been seen by many as a “perfect storm” and an “unprecedented” public health calamity. This article attempts to place this most current of epidemics, one currently struggling for pandemic status, in an historical frame. At least since the 1600s protocols and programs for the containment of epidemic disease have been known, and mapped. And yet it was almost six months after warnings about this epidemic were first sounded that incomplete programs of control and surveillance were instituted. In effect, we have forgotten the basics of what was once common knowledge in public health. Having placed our faith in bacteriology, virology, and pharmacology, we have forgotten the lessons learned, long ago. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-6)
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Iqrar, Irum, Muhammad Ali, and Zabta Khan Shinwari. "Proceedings of the ANSO-PAS-MAAP Conference on Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness." Proceedings of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences: B. Life and Environmental Sciences 60, S (January 29, 2023): 115–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.53560/ppasb(60-sp1)proceedings845.
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An EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects many people within a community, population, or region. ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country. A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents. Epidemics and pandemics are some of the leading threats to global health security. They not only affect people’s health and well-being, but they can also have a massive impact on livelihoods and entire societies too. Pandemics can cause sudden, widespread morbidity and mortality as well as social, political, and economic disruption. The world has endured several notable pandemics, including the Black Death, Spanish flu, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). Most new pandemics have originated through the “zoonotic” transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and the next pandemic is likely to be a zoonosis as well. Zoonoses enter human populations from both domesticated animals (such as farmed swine or poultry) and wildlife. Many historically significant zoonoses were introduced through increased human-animal interaction following domestication, and potentially high-risk zoonoses (including avian influenzas) continue to emerge from livestock production systems. Some pathogens (including Ebola) have emerged from wildlife reservoirs and entered human populations through the hunting and consumption of wild species (such as bushmeat), the wild animal trade, and other contacts with wildlife. Spending and costs specifically associated with pandemic preparedness and response efforts are poorly tracked. There is no widely accepted, consistent methodology for estimating the economic impacts of pandemics.
To highlight strategies to combat pandemics, a three-day ANSO-PAS-MAAP Conference on Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness was jointly organized by the Pakistan Academy of Sciences (PAS), Alliance of International Science Organization (ANSO), and MonbukagakushoMEXT Alumni Association of Pakistan (MAAP) organized a three-day ANSO-PAS-MAAP Conference on “Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness” from December 5 - 7, 2022 in the Pakistan Academy of Sciences, Islamabad. In total, 31 lectures were delivered at the ANSOPAS-MAAP Conference by leading experts in five technical sessions focused on the surveillance and preparedness against global Pandemics and epidemics. Of these, seven (07) lectures were presented by international speakers and twenty-six (26) lectures were presented by Pakistani speakers. The resource persons were leading foreign experts from different countries i.e., China, New Zealand, Italy, USA, and Pakistan. While 32 posters were presented on various themes of pandemics and epidemics in the Poster competition, in which young scientists from across the country participated. Over 400 academicians, scientists, researchers, and postgraduate students from Pakistan and abroad have registered to participate in the deliberations of the conference through physical and/or virtual (online) presence. In addition to the technical sessions, four group works were conducted to formulate recommendations. Recommendations of the conference will be shared with national and international bodies and research institutions dealing with the development of vaccines for the control of potential epidemic and pandemic-related issues worldwide.
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An, Lu Vi. "Epidemics and pandemics in human history: Origins, effects and response measures." Science & Technology Development Journal - Social Sciences & Humanities 4, no. 4 (December 15, 2020): first. http://dx.doi.org/10.32508/stdjssh.v4i4.612.
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Epidemics and pandemics are kind of the regular disasters that not only threaten human health, but also affect economy, social and politic life of many societies and civilizations. In the timeline of human history, there have long been a lot of catastrophic epidemics, rapidly spreading all over the world, leading to massive deaths and becoming horrible challenges to human existence. They included the plague of Antonine in Ancient Rome; the Justinian pandemic and ``the Black Death'' in the Medieval period; the pandemic of cholera and the Asian plague in the modern age; the 1918- 1919 flu pandemic, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the influenza pandemic in 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-2020. The main infectious diseases that cause pandemics in human history are plagued, smallpox, cholera and flu. By approaching the macrohistory and environmental history, the article made some overviews of epidemics and pandemics in human history from ancient ages to modern ages. Firstly, the article researches the terms ``epidemic, pandemic" and their levels. Next, the article analyzes the origins of epidemics and pandemics, the causes of their appearance, including biological factors, natural conditions and social conditions. Then, the article presents the outbreaks, spreads and impacts of some significant epidemics and pandemics in human history. Hence, the article also initially evaluates some response measures to epidemics and pandemics in history.
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Sharma, Mahak. "Outbreaks in India: Impact on Socio-economy and Health." Journal of Communicable Diseases 53, no. 01 (March 31, 2021): 35–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.24321/0019.5138.202107.
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The research activity regarding infectious diseases has been increased significantly in the past few years in India. The main cause of infectious disease is pathogenic microorganisms and the infection can spread from direct or indirect contact between individuals. Once the infection spread throughout the country or world, is classified as an epidemic or pandemic. India is not unfamiliar with pandemic and epidemics, as they occur throughout history. This review paper highlights the major epidemics and pandemic occur in India. More than 90 national and global papers were reviewed. The research papers were chosen from PubMed, Google scholar, science direct, research gate, and organization like WHO. This paper dealt with the impact of pandemic and epidemic on India’s economy, health sector and social power. The study concluded that there were around 10 epidemics and pandemics occur in India from the 18th century to the 21st century. The major impact on the social life and health sector has mainly affected in COVID-19, chikungunya, Plague in India.Meningococcal disease and dengue had a negative impact on health sector.Nipah Virus, plague, and COVID-19 had more impact on tourism. Whereas, economy was majorly affected in Plague, and COVID-19.
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Rotgé, Hector G. Riveros, and David Riveros Rosas. "COVID19 Pandemic evolution through Gompertz’s equation." South Florida Journal of Development 2, no. 3 (August 5, 2021): 4807–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.46932/sfjdv2n3-074.
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ABSTRACT
The Gompertz equation describes the evolution of an epidemic. Applied to the data from France, Spain, Germany, and the United Kingdom, it is adjusted with slight deviations since each country implemented different restriction or distancing measures to prevent the spread. Some countries do not conform to Gompertz. With the data from Mexico, the graphs show that the measured and calculated data are overlapped. The deviations are not noticeable. We made adjustments with data up to recent dates. For the four countries, Gompertz predicts well the evolution of the epidemic. We tried to predict the growth of the epidemic using Gompertz. For Mexico, the maximum number of daily infections was predicted up to a month before it happened.
RESUMEN
La ecuación de Gompertz describe la evolución de una epidemia. Aplicada a los datos de Francia, España, Alemania y el Reino Unido, se ajusta con ligeras desviaciones, ya que cada país aplicó diferentes medidas de restricción o distanciamiento para evitar la propagación. Algunos países no se ajustan a Gompertz. Con los datos de México, los gráficos muestran que los datos medidos y los calculados se superponen. Las desviaciones no son perceptibles. Hemos realizado ajustes con datos hasta fechas recientes. Para los cuatro países, Gompertz predice bien la evolución de la epidemia. Intentamos predecir el crecimiento de la epidemia con Gompertz. Para México, se predijo el número máximo de contagios diarios hasta un mes antes de que se produjera.
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Chowell, Gerardo, Sushma Dahal, Amna Tariq, Kimberlyn Roosa, James M. Hyman, and Ruiyan Luo. "An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA." PLOS Computational Biology 18, no. 10 (October 6, 2022): e1010602. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010602.
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We analyze an ensemble of n-sub-epidemic modeling for forecasting the trajectory of epidemics and pandemics. These ensemble modeling approaches, and models that integrate sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics, have demonstrated powerful forecasting capability. This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns, including plateaus, epidemic resurgences, and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes. We systematically assess their calibration and short-term forecasting performance in short-term forecasts for the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA from late April 2020 to late February 2022. We compare their performance with two commonly used statistical ARIMA models. The best fit sub-epidemic model and three ensemble models constructed using the top-ranking sub-epidemic models consistently outperformed the ARIMA models in terms of the weighted interval score (WIS) and the coverage of the 95% prediction interval across the 10-, 20-, and 30-day short-term forecasts. In our 30-day forecasts, the average WIS ranged from 377.6 to 421.3 for the sub-epidemic models, whereas it ranged from 439.29 to 767.05 for the ARIMA models. Across 98 short-term forecasts, the ensemble model incorporating the top four ranking sub-epidemic models (Ensemble(4)) outperformed the (log) ARIMA model 66.3% of the time, and the ARIMA model, 69.4% of the time in 30-day ahead forecasts in terms of the WIS. Ensemble(4) consistently yielded the best performance in terms of the metrics that account for the uncertainty of the predictions. This framework can be readily applied to investigate the spread of epidemics and pandemics beyond COVID-19, as well as other dynamic growth processes found in nature and society that would benefit from short-term predictions.
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Rath, Padmalaya, and Shib Narayan Jana. "A Brief Account of Homoeopathic Approach to Fight COVID-19 Disaster." Homœopathic Links 33, no. 03 (September 2020): 147–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0040-1715889.
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AbstractDisasters are unfortunate but integral part of civilisation. While the incidence of disaster cannot be prevented altogether, the effects can be modified to the extent that there will be minimum or no loss of life, minimum loss to property and quick restoration to normalcy. Virtually in many instances effects can be reduced to nil or negligible if sufficient diligence is practiced. Epidemic diseases are regarded as disasters too. Homoeopathy is a medical system of therapeutics which claims to have effective intervention in epidemics. Any system of medicine that offers to intervene in any epidemic should be embraced. Epidemics have occurred in the past not only in India but in other countries as well, such as Cholera, Asian flu, Spanish flu, severe acute respiratory syndrome and Avian influenza. When an epidemic spreads in wider geographical area and affects large number of people, it is termed as pandemic. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic that began in December 2019.Homoeopathic system of medicine claims to have effective treatment in epidemics. But hardly any effort seems to have been made to correlate the limited documented studies on epidemics that may consolidate the positive results of homoeopathy in such a way that can help policy makers to give a serious thought to the fact that homoeopathy can be trusted to combat epidemic diseases. This article involves data collection using existing published articles on case series/individual cases in peer-reviewed journals assessing the applicability of homoeopathy in epidemics/pandemics and in COVID-19. With such a background finding suitable solutions is a necessary step toward prevention and treatment of epidemic diseases.
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Peate, Ian. "From epidemic to pandemic." Journal of Paramedic Practice 12, no. 4 (April 2, 2020): 135. http://dx.doi.org/10.12968/jpar.2020.12.4.135.
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Peate, Ian. "From epidemic to pandemic." International Paramedic Practice 10, no. 1 (March 2, 2020): 14. http://dx.doi.org/10.12968/ippr.2020.10.1.14.
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Sergeant, Anjali, Emma Alaine van Reekum, Nitika Sanger, Alexander Dufort, Tea Rosic, Stephanie Sanger, Sandra Lubert, Lawrence Mbuagbaw, Lehana Thabane, and Zainab Samaan. "Impact of COVID-19 and other pandemics and epidemics on people with pre-existing mental disorders: a systematic review protocol and suggestions for clinical care." BMJ Open 10, no. 9 (September 2020): e040229. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-040229.
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IntroductionThe current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in high rates of infection and death, as well as widespread social disruption and a reduction in access to healthcare services and support. There is growing concern over how the pandemic, as well as measures put in place to curb the pandemic, will impact people with mental disorders. We aim to study the effect of pandemics and epidemics on mental health outcomes for people with premorbid mental disorders.Methods and analysisWith our predefined search strategy, we will search five databases for studies reporting on mental health outcomes in people with pre-existing mental disorders during pandemic and epidemic settings. Search dates are planned as follows: 5 May 2020 and 23 July 2020. The following databases will be searched: MEDLINE/PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, MedRxiv and EMBASE. Data will be screened and extracted in duplicate by two independent reviewers. Studies involving non-clinical populations or patients diagnosed with a mental disorder during a pandemic/epidemic will be excluded. We will include data collected from all pandemics and epidemics throughout history, including the present COVID-19 pandemic. If possible, study findings will be combined in meta-analyses, and subgroup analyses will be performed. We hope that this review will shed light on the impact of pandemics and epidemics on those with pre-existing mental disorders. Knowledge generated may inform future intervention studies as well as healthcare policies. Given the potential implications of the current pandemic measures (ie, disruption of healthcare services) on mental health, we will also compile a list of existing mental health resources.Ethics and disseminationNo ethical approval is required for this protocol and proposed systematic review as we will only use data from previously published papers that have themselves received ethics clearance and used proper informed consent procedures.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO registration number: CRD42020179611.
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Abu El Sood, Hanaa, Shimaa Ali Abu Kamer, Reham Kamel, Hesham Magdy, Fatma S. Osman, Manal Fahim, Amira Mohsen, et al. "The Impact of Implementing the Egypt Pandemic Preparedness Plan for Acute Respiratory Infections in Combating the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic, February-July 2020: Viewpoint." JMIR Public Health and Surveillance 7, no. 5 (May 7, 2021): e27412. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/27412.
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This article briefly describes Egypt’s acute respiratory infection (ARI) epidemic preparedness and containment plan and illustrates the impact of implementation of the plan on combating the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt. Pillars of the plan include crisis management, enhancing surveillance systems and contact tracing, case and hospital management, raising community awareness, and quarantine and entry points. To identify the impact of the implementation of the plan on epidemic mitigation, a literature review was performed of studies published from Egypt in the early stage of the pandemic. In addition, data for patients with COVID-19 from February to July 2020 were obtained from the National Egyptian Surveillance system and studied to describe the situation in the early stage of the epidemic in Egypt. The lessons learned indicated that the single most important key to success in early-stage epidemic containment is the commitment of all partners to a predeveloped and agreed-upon preparedness plan. This information could be useful for other countries in the region and worldwide in mitigating future anticipated ARI epidemics and pandemics. Postepidemic evaluation is needed to better assess Egypt’s national response to the COVID-19 epidemic.
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Kim, Kiseong, Sunyong Yoo, Sangyeon Lee, Doheon Lee, and Kwang-Hyung Lee. "Network Analysis to Identify the Risk of Epidemic Spreading." Applied Sciences 11, no. 7 (March 26, 2021): 2997. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11072997.
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Several epidemics, such as the Black Death and the Spanish flu, have threatened human life throughout history; however, it is unclear if humans will remain safe from the sudden and fast spread of epidemic diseases. Moreover, the transmission characteristics of epidemics remain undiscovered. In this study, we present the results of an epidemic simulation experiment revealing the relationship between epidemic parameters and pandemic risk. To analyze the time-dependent risk and impact of epidemics, we considered two parameters for infectious diseases: the recovery time from infection and the transmission rate of the disease. Based on the epidemic simulation, we identified two important aspects of human safety with regard to the threat of a pandemic. First, humans should be safe if the fatality rate is below 100%. Second, even when the fatality rate is 100%, humans would be safe if the average degree of human social networks is below a threshold value. Nevertheless, certain diseases can potentially infect all nodes in the human social networks, and these diseases cause a pandemic when the average degree is larger than the threshold value. These results indicated that certain infectious diseases lead to human extinction and can be prevented by minimizing human contact.
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Zadorozhna, V. I. "FROM THE EPIDEMICS OF THE PAST TO THE PRESENT AND DISEASE X, EXPERIENCE OF THE FIGHT AND PERSPECTIVES." Preventive medicine. Theory and practice 1, no. 5 (2024): 3–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.61948/prevmed-2024-1-3.
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People have faced epidemics and pandemics since ancient times, without yet understanding either their nature, their consequences, or how to protect themselves and prevent their spread. Each infectious disease has its own history, features related to the virulence of the pathogen, the mechanism of its transmission, contagiousness, which depend on the epidemic potential of the pathogen, the intensity of the epidemic process of infection, and the consequences for eachindividual and society in general. Every year, new human microorganisms appear, among which viruses play a leading role,new parasitic systems are formed or already existing parasitic systems change, in which a person becomes the biological host of one or another pathogen. It is shown that zoonotic microorganisms prevail among human pathogens, in particular among emergent ones. Viruses predominate among pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential. The article examines the chronology of major epidemics and pandemics, starting with an unknown disease in China 5,000 years ago and ending with monkeypox, the spread of which began in May 2022. Considerable attention is paid to current infectious diseases with pandemic potential, namely zoonotic influenza, emerging coronavirus infections (SARS, MERS, COVID-19), Ebola and Zika diseases, re-emerging monkeypox. A list of 10 potentially pandemic infectious diseases, which WHO has identified as priority, is provided, which also includes disease X. Taking into account the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic, all countries, including Ukraine, need to make a lot more efforts to achieve a truly adequate level of preparedness for preventing biological threats and responding to future challenges. It is noted that preparations are currently underway for the adoption of the WHO Convention, an agreement or another international document on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response, the draft of which is currently undergoing the coordination stage. The implementation of its provisions at the international and national levels will contribute to increasing the effectiveness of international and national biosecurity systems and strengthening the potential for combating biological threats. It is emphasized that the national biosafety system in Ukraine needs significant improvement in the direction of strengthening the system of epidemiological surveillance of infectious diseases. Key words: epidemic, pandemic, emergent infection, pathogen, MERS, COVID-19, monkeypox, disease X.
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Muhsin, Sayyed Mohamed, and Murshid Muhammad. "Epidemics between Qadr and Ḥadhar: Insights from al-Nawawī (Epidemik Di antara Qadar dan Hadhar: Sorotan dari Al- Nawawi)." Journal of Islam in Asia (E-ISSN 2289-8077) 18, no. 2 (October 24, 2021): 144–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.31436/jia.v18i2.1054.
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Being a great jurist and influential scholar with seminal works on hadith, theology, biography and jurisprudence, al-Nawawī’s (d. 1277) views on epidemics are of great significance in these days of the pandemic. This article explores his views and explanations vis-à-vis epidemic to find his perspectives on balance between qadr (predestination) and ḥadhar (precaution) by conducting a content analysis of his various texts. In this article, the authors mainly referred to his texts Sharaḥ Muslim, Riyaḍ al-Ṣāliḥīn, al-Majmūʿ Sharaḥ Muhadhdhab, Rawḍat al-Ṭālibīn and al- Adhkār al-Muntakhab. This study substantiates that in the view of al-Nawawī, Islam postulates a balanced position between taking precaution and faith in Allah’s decrees in dealing with the situations of an epidemic. Thus, it holistically complements the concepts of qadr and hadhar to guide people towards leading a faithful and safe life in the trying times of epidemic. Keywords: Qadr, Ḥadhar, Precaution, Predestination, Al-Nawawī, Hadith, Epidemic. Abstrak Sebagai seorang juri dan seorang sarjana yang terkenal dan berpengaruh dalam ilmu hadis, agama, biografi dan falsafah perundangan, pandagan Imam Nawawi [d1277] pada epidemik pada masa kini mempunyai kesan signifikan dalam waktu pandemik sekarang. Artikel ini meninjau pandangan dan penghuraian perspektif epidemik dan keseimbangan di antara qadar [takdir] dan hadhar [pencegahan] dengan mengkaji analisa kandungan pelbagai hasil penulisan. Dalam artikel ini penulis merujuk kepada penulisan Sharaḥ Muslim, Riyaḍ al-Ṣāaliḥīn, al-Majmūʿ Sharaḥ Muhadhdhab, Rawḍat al-Ṭālibīn dan al- Adhkār al-Muntakhab. Kajian ini juga membuktikan pendapat Imam Nawawi bahawa Islam mencakna keseimbangan kedudukan di antara mengambil langkah berjaga-jaga yakni pencegahan dan keyakinan kepada kekuasaan dan penentuan Allah swt dalam mengurus situasi epidemik dalam konsep Qada dan Hadhar. Kata Kunci: Qadar, Hadhar, Pencegahan, Takdir, al-Nawawi, Hadith, Epidemik.
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Li, Xia, Yifang Liu, and Huijuan Wang. "The Impact of Sustainable Development of Cold Chain Logistics on China’s COVID-19 Pandemic." Sustainability 14, no. 16 (August 19, 2022): 10358. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su141610358.
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Currently, there are multiple COVID-19 outbreaks in China’s imported cold chain product logistics. Cold chain logistics (CCL) have become an important source and weak link of China’s epidemic risk. This article discusses the differential effect of CCL on COVID-19 epidemic risk in different regions of China from an econometric analysis perspective. By comparing the development level of China and foreign countries, it can be observed that the sustainability of CCL may be a key factor affecting the risks of the epidemic. This article confirms the inverse correlation between the level of sustainability of CCL and the risk of epidemics from both mechanism analysis and empirical tests. Developing sustainability is not only beneficial to the development of the CCL industry itself but also an effective way to mitigate the risk of epidemics.
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Yasaka, Tyler M., Brandon M. Lehrich, and Ronald Sahyouni. "Peer-to-Peer Contact Tracing: Development of a Privacy-Preserving Smartphone App." JMIR mHealth and uHealth 8, no. 4 (April 7, 2020): e18936. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/18936.
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Background The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an urgent public health crisis, with epidemiologic models predicting severe consequences, including high death rates, if the virus is permitted to run its course without any intervention or response. Contact tracing using smartphone technology is a powerful tool that may be employed to limit disease transmission during an epidemic or pandemic; yet, contact tracing apps present significant privacy concerns regarding the collection of personal data such as location. Objective The aim of this study is to develop an effective contact tracing smartphone app that respects user privacy by not collecting location information or other personal data. Methods We propose the use of an anonymized graph of interpersonal interactions to conduct a novel form of contact tracing and have developed a proof-of-concept smartphone app that implements this approach. Additionally, we developed a computer simulation model that demonstrates the impact of our proposal on epidemic or pandemic outbreak trajectories across multiple rates of adoption. Results Our proof-of-concept smartphone app allows users to create “checkpoints” for contact tracing, check their risk level based on their past interactions, and anonymously self-report a positive status to their peer network. Our simulation results suggest that higher adoption rates of such an app may result in a better controlled epidemic or pandemic outbreak. Conclusions Our proposed smartphone-based contact tracing method presents a novel solution that preserves privacy while demonstrating the potential to suppress an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. This app could potentially be applied to the current COVID-19 pandemic as well as other epidemics or pandemics in the future to achieve a middle ground between drastic isolation measures and unmitigated disease spread.
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Adikpe, Agburu O., Ezekiel E. Agbon, Abdulkadir M. Giwa, Habib T. Adeyemo, Moses A. Adegoke, and Franklin C. Njoku. "Quick Response Code Technology-based Contact Tracing Solutions to Mitigate Epidemic Outbreaks: A Review." Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Technology 6, no. 3 (December 31, 2023): 34–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.51846/vol6iss3pp34-43.
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Several epidemics and pandemics have plagued humanity over the years; however, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic revealed humanity's lack of preparedness for epidemics and pandemic outbreaks. Although several approaches have been proposed, designed, and implemented during and post-COVID-19 by researchers to deal with future epidemic outbreaks, there is a need for lightweight technology solutions to develop technology-based contact tracing (TCT) solutions. Quick response (QR) codes can be considered a lightweight technology as they provide environmentally friendly solutions with flexible applications across industries. They also enable contactless interactions and transactions, which is essential for the health and safety of users in the event of an epidemic. To the best of our knowledge, there exists a few pieces of literature that solely discuss and review the QR code-based TCT solutions adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, this work explores the QR code for its potential and use as a TCT approach. On this premise, this review discusses factors influencing QR code-based CT and further discusses existing QR code-based techniques for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. Additionally, the hybridization of QR code-based techniques with other TCT solutions has limited discussions that solely focus on QR code-based techniques; as such, QR code-based techniques are compared against other technologies adopted for TCT. The review recommends possible solutions to address the challenges in utilizing QR code-based solutions as it concludes the review.
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de Silva, Eric, Neil M. Ferguson, and Christophe Fraser. "Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 9, no. 73 (February 15, 2012): 1797–808. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2011.0850.
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Using sequence data to infer population dynamics is playing an increasing role in the analysis of outbreaks. The most common methods in use, based on coalescent inference, have been widely used but not extensively tested against simulated epidemics. Here, we use simulated data to test the ability of both parametric and non-parametric methods for inference of effective population size (coded in the popular BEAST package) to reconstruct epidemic dynamics. We consider a range of simulations centred on scenarios considered plausible for pandemic influenza, but our conclusions are generic for any exponentially growing epidemic. We highlight systematic biases in non-parametric effective population size estimation. The most prominent such bias leads to the false inference of slowing of epidemic spread in the recent past even when the real epidemic is growing exponentially. We suggest some sampling strategies that could reduce (but not eliminate) some of the biases. Parametric methods can correct for these biases if the infected population size is large. We also explore how some poor sampling strategies (e.g. that over-represent epidemiologically linked clusters of cases) could dramatically exacerbate bias in an uncontrolled manner. Finally, we present a simple diagnostic indicator, based on coalescent density and which can easily be applied to reconstructed phylogenies, that identifies time-periods for which effective population size estimates are less likely to be biased. We illustrate this with an application to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
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Borisevich, S. V., T. E. Sizikova, and V. N. Lebedev. "COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Possible Scenarios for the Development of the Epidemic in Russia." Journal of NBC Protection Corps 4, no. 2 (June 19, 2020): 116–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.35825/2587-5728-2020-4-2-116-130.
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The COVID-19 pandemic posed many questions to world health. They could be satisfactorily answered only after a thorough study. During the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic (early January 2020), it was considered a local outbreak of emergent coronavirus infection with an undetermined possibility of person-to-person transmission. However, on March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) upgraded the status of the COVID-19 outbreak from epidemic to pandemic. The aim of this article was to analyze possible scenarios of the development of COVID-19 epidemics in Russia. COVID-19 infection occurs mainly in the beginning stage of the disease, when patients are not yet diagnosed. This is the fundamental difference between COVID-19 and SARS or MERS, in which patients become contagious after onset of symptoms of the disease. Based on the study of dynamics of changes in certain epidemiological characteristics, the epidemic in Russia was compared in this article with the same epidemics in China, Italy, Germany and the United States. The authors came to the conclusion, that the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia was different from the above mentioned epidemics, because the capital region (Moscow and Moscow region), the largest center of transport communications, became the epicenter of the epidemic in Russia. They considered different variants of epidemic development in Russia, depending on the intensity of ongoing anti-epidemic measures. To describe the spread of the epidemic, the SIR model (Susceptible Infected Recovered) proposed by Scottish epidemiologists W.O. Kermack and A.G. McKendrick was used. Based on the data obtained, it turned out to be possible to tentatively determine the final date of the active phase of the COVID-19 epidemic (after which it is possible to register only a limited number of cases of the disease). This date should come about 6 weeks after the completion of the plateau phase. The beginning of the plateau phase was early May 2020, and the end of the plateau phase should be mid June 2020. The estimated completion date should be August 8–25, 2020. The total number of people with a confirmed diagnosis could be 991–1122 thousand.
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Cleere, Eileen, Narin Hassan, and George Robb. "Zooming in: epidemic, pandemic, endemic." Nineteenth-Century Contexts 43, no. 5 (October 20, 2021): 599–605. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08905495.2021.1995276.
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Durigon, Luís Gustavo, Fábio Agne Fayet, and Pedro Henrique Baiotto Noronha. "Epidemic crime and pandemic criminal:." JURIS - Revista da Faculdade de Direito 33, no. 2 (June 12, 2024): 12–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.14295/juris.v33i2.16368.
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Este trabalho está albergado no âmbito nos crimes contra saúde pública, precisamente para delimitação entre o crime de epidemia e a pandemia criminal, a plêiade de condutas criminosas que brotou em ebulição nos tempos estranhos e excepcionais vividos a partir do ano de 2020. Neste cenário, avultaram situações fáticas que desafiam a imputação pela prática do crime de epidemia, de modo que o problema de pesquisa consiste na seguinte indagação: é possível a imputação pelo crime de epidemia em meio à pandemia? A primeira hipótese reside na lógica semântica de ser possível tal imputação; e a segunda, um pouco mais ousada, a partir da impossibilidade desta imputação, reside em - no mínimo - delimitar o crime de epidemia e invocar os demais possíveis tipos penais aplicáveis a condutas decorrentes deste estado de pandemia. Os objetivos principais vêm atrelados à verificação dos contornos do crime de epidemia e tipos mais próximos, balizando, em alguma medida, os caminhos legítimos para eventual imputação destes. A relevância é dada pela prática diária que noticiou eventos criminais próprios dos tempos pandêmicos, quase sempre atrelados ao crime de epidemia, desafiando o discernimento entre este tipo penal e os demais que lhe são afetos, exigindo a análise. Adotou-se como método de abordagem o dedutivo, pautando a técnica de pesquisa pelo tipo bibliográfico, exploratório e qualitativo, por seu viés eminentemente prático na leitura do tema, permitindo que se conclua pela necessidade de novas luzes de análise e verificação da imputação penal em relação aos crimes desta natureza.
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Jones, Roger A. C. "Disease Pandemics and Major Epidemics Arising from New Encounters between Indigenous Viruses and Introduced Crops." Viruses 12, no. 12 (December 4, 2020): 1388. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12121388.
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Virus disease pandemics and epidemics that occur in the world’s staple food crops pose a major threat to global food security, especially in developing countries with tropical or subtropical climates. Moreover, this threat is escalating rapidly due to increasing difficulties in controlling virus diseases as climate change accelerates and the need to feed the burgeoning global population escalates. One of the main causes of these pandemics and epidemics is the introduction to a new continent of food crops domesticated elsewhere, and their subsequent invasion by damaging virus diseases they never encountered before. This review focusses on providing historical and up-to-date information about pandemics and major epidemics initiated by spillover of indigenous viruses from infected alternative hosts into introduced crops. This spillover requires new encounters at the managed and natural vegetation interface. The principal virus disease pandemic examples described are two (cassava mosaic, cassava brown streak) that threaten food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and one (tomato yellow leaf curl) doing so globally. A further example describes a virus disease pandemic threatening a major plantation crop producing a vital food export for West Africa (cacao swollen shoot). Also described are two examples of major virus disease epidemics that threaten SSA’s food security (rice yellow mottle, groundnut rosette). In addition, brief accounts are provided of two major maize virus disease epidemics (maize streak in SSA, maize rough dwarf in Mediterranean and Middle Eastern regions), a major rice disease epidemic (rice hoja blanca in the Americas), and damaging tomato tospovirus and begomovirus disease epidemics of tomato that impair food security in different world regions. For each pandemic or major epidemic, the factors involved in driving its initial emergence, and its subsequent increase in importance and geographical distribution, are explained. Finally, clarification is provided over what needs to be done globally to achieve effective management of severe virus disease pandemics and epidemics initiated by spillover events.
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Kumar, Sandeep, Moanaro Biswas, Jagadeeswaran Deventhiran, and Subbiah Elankumaran. "Comparative analysis of different influenza virus strains (H1N1) in the pathogenesis and immune cell infiltration in the lungs in a mouse model. (P6192)." Journal of Immunology 190, no. 1_Supplement (May 1, 2013): 189.11. http://dx.doi.org/10.4049/jimmunol.190.supp.189.11.
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Abstract Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics around the world. Influenza pandemics of varied severity have been reported over time, among which, the 1918 pandemic was most severe. In the present study we sought to explore the pathogenesis and the infiltration of key immune cells in the murine lung following infection with A/PR/08/1934 (mouse adapted seasonal), A/New Jersey/11/1976 (localized epidemics) and A/Ca/04/2009 (pandemic) influenza viruses. We also sought to examine the role of hemmaglutinin (HA) glycoprotein of epidemic and pandemic influenza virus and of a single nucleotide mutation (D222G) in HA gene in altering disease pathology in infected animals. Animals were infected intra-nasally and scored daily for clinical signs (lethargy, ruffled fur and loss in body weight) for fifteen days. Pandemic virus infected mice were first to show clinical signs, though animals recovered soon. Clinical signs were observed after 48hrs post infection in animals infected with mouse adapted seasonal influenza but these animals failed to recover and 100% mortality was observed on day 5-post infection. No clinical signs were observed in animals infected with epidemic influenza virus strain. Lung samples were collected from infected animals on days 1, 3 and 5-post infection and were analyzed for virus titers, immune cells infiltration, pro-inflammatory cytokines and histopathology. Results of these analyses will be discussed.
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Elhadad, Sara, Zoltan Orban, and Attila Fülöp. "Pandemic COVID-19: challenge strategic decisions on building in Egypt." Acta Technica Jaurinensis 16, no. 2 (May 31, 2023): 83–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.14513/actatechjaur.00696.
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COVID-19 threatens the livelihood and lives of people all over the world. Presently, the disease presents a major health concern in Egypt and all over the world. Evaluating the built and physical environment is one of the solutions to reduce epidemic impact before developing its medications (as “prevention”). Epidemics have altered the usage of our built environment because of the infection fear. As a result, urbanism and architecture will never be the same after the COVID-19 epidemic. However, the current global epidemic poses significant challenges in the built environment at all levels, developing an antivirus-enabled paradigm to stop the spreading of virus or decrease the potential risks will take time. Many unanswered questions require further multidisciplinary studies. This investigation provides an overview for impact of the current COVID-19 Pandemic on the field of residential architecture and how it might change the architecture of built environment.
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Kadri-Alabi, Zaharat, Stefan Schilling, Lisha Jeena, Ishmeala Rigby, Eli Harriss, Gail Carson, Alice Norton, and Louise Sigfrid. "A review of new challenges and solutions to the timely and effective implementation of clinical research responses to high priority diseases of epidemic and pandemic potential: A scoping review protocol." Open Research Europe 3 (September 7, 2023): 139. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.16161.1.
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Background: Conducting and implementing clinical research response during pandemic and epidemic diseases outbreaks are often fraught with challenges due to their unprecedented nature. In previous research, challenges to the implementation of clinical research responses during pandemic and epidemic outbreaks were identified and solutions suggested. While the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic has, on one hand, highlighted new and unresolved challenges, several novel solutions such as the Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 Therapy (RECOVERY) trial were also implemented and reported in the literature. This scoping review, therefore, aims to synthesise and update solutions to the barriers affecting the implementation of clinical research responses during new, emerging or re-emerging diseases of pandemic and epidemic potential, to further inform strategies that would enhance pandemic and epidemic preparedness and response. Methods: This scoping review will be conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis- Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR). Search will be conducted in six scientific databases: Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Global Health, OVID PsycINFO, Ovid Embase, Scopus Epistemonikos, and complemented by a grey literature search in Google Scholar. Terms related to clinical trial, high consequence infectious diseases and the PEARLES domains will be used in the search. Two reviewers will independently screen retrieved articles in Rayyan software. Descriptive data of studies will be extracted into a pre-developed Microsoft Excel template while qualitative data related to the PEARLES solutions or barriers will be coded in NVivo. Results will be synthesised thematically and presented in a narrative style. Conclusions: This scoping review will synthesise new and updated solutions to the PEARLES challenges encountered during the implementation of clinical research responses to high consequence epidemics and pandemics. Furthermore, it will examine how challenges and proposed solutions identified prior to the emergence of Covid-19 have been addressed and tested in real time.
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Cinelli, Ilaria, and Thais Russomano. "Advances in Space Medicine Applied to Pandemics on Earth." Space: Science & Technology 2021 (April 5, 2021): 1–3. http://dx.doi.org/10.34133/2021/9821480.
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Preparation and planning are critical when facing an epidemic or pandemic. Timely solutions must be incorporated in addition to existing guidelines in the case of a fast-spreading epidemic. Advances in space health have been driven by the need to preserve human health in an austere environment, in which medical assistance or resupply from the ground is not possible. This paper speculates on the similarities between human spaceflight and epidemics, extended to pandemics, identifying implementable solutions for immediate use by healthcare personnel and healthcare systems. We believe aerospace medical research can be seen as a resource to improve terrestrial medical care and the management of patients on Earth.
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Karpova, L. S., Y. M. Pelikh, and K. A. Stolyarov. "The Influenza Situation in the World and the Epidemic in Russia in Season 2016 - 2017." Epidemiology and Vaccine Prevention 16, no. 4 (August 20, 2017): 9–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2017-16-4-9-21.
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Analysis of the situation for influenza in the world are drawn according to data published on the websites of the WHO, and the epidemic 2016 - 2017 in Russia - database «Research Influenza Institute» on the weekly morbidity, hospitalization, deaths from influenza in 61 observed the city. The influenza epidemic 2016 - 2017 started early, the duration of its in cities and in the country was longer and higher was the incidence of influenza and ARI in the cities and in the country than in the epidemic 2015 - 2016. But the epidemic of influenza A(H3N2) 2016 - 2017 there was less incidence morbidity at the peak, the frequency of hospitalization and, especially, mortality from influenza in the total population by 20 times, and in all age groups, especially among persons older than 65 years by 17.5 times, compared to the epidemic 2015 - 2016, caused by the pandemic virus influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. The peculiarities of the epidemic 2016 -17 according to the Federal districts, first of all, the absence of a second rise in the incidence of influenza in the South of Russia. The intensity of the epidemics of influenza A(H3N2) seasons 2016 - 17 and 2014 - 2015 - was average, and the epidemic A(H1N1) pdm09 2015 - 2016 - high. The case fatality rate in epidemics involving the influenza A(H3N2) remains significantly lower than in the epidemic caused by the pandemic virus influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.
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Birn, Anne-Emanuelle. "Perspectivizing pandemics: (how) do epidemic histories criss-cross contexts?" Journal of Global History 15, no. 3 (November 2020): 336–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1740022820000327.
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AbstractThis article explores a smattering of thematic questions that criss-cross the articles in this special pandemics issue; it signposts some reverberations, overlapping responses, and problematic comparisons currently (mid 2020) being made between past pandemics and the tense experiences (and projections going forward) of COVID-19 across the world. The historical pandemics covered here offer an entry point to a fruitful set of genealogies, chronologies, epidemiologies, trajectories, and imaginaries linked to a host of issues: what makes a pandemic ‘global’? What does a global history perspective bring to the table? How does examining germs and genomes shed light on imperialism as a/the pandemic driver? Where do animals, the environment, and ecology fit in and why are they so often excluded from pandemic histories? What counts as medical humanitarianism when health knowledge, know-how, and cooperation ‘from below’ are sidelined? And what came/comes first: a pandemic or a changed world?
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HALL, I. M., R. GANI, H. E. HUGHES, and S. LEACH. "Real-time epidemic forecasting for pandemic influenza." Epidemiology and Infection 135, no. 3 (August 24, 2006): 372–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268806007084.
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The ongoing worldwide spread of the H5N1 influenza virus in birds has increased concerns of a new human influenza pandemic and a number of surveillance initiatives are planned, or are in place, to monitor the impact of a pandemic in near real-time. Using epidemiological data collected during the early stages of an outbreak, we show how the timing of the maximum prevalence of the pandemic wave, along with its amplitude and duration, might be predicted by fitting a mass-action epidemic model to the surveillance data by standard regression analysis. This method is validated by applying the model to routine data collected in the United Kingdom during the different waves of the previous three pandemics. The success of the method in forecasting historical prevalence suggests that such outbreaks conform reasonably well to the theoretical model, a factor which may be exploited in a future pandemic to update ongoing planning and response.
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Bilal Bagis. "Policy Implications of the Post-Pandemic New Normal." Asia Proceedings of Social Sciences 9, no. 1 (January 29, 2022): 291–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.31580/apss.v9i1.2372.
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Just like the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis, the 2020 pandemic also seems to have spawned a period of rethinking in economics. This is particularly evident in issues related to macroeconomic thinking, public policies and the functioning of the global financial system. This article discusses the effects, damages and contributions of the Covid-19 epidemic to the world economy and national economies. It focuses on changes in the mindset of economic policies that are effective in combating crises that are brought about by such epidemics. The epidemic was a good wake-up call showing that the capitalist system can only be sustained by the labor of the remaining 99%. As a matter of fact, when the labor markets were closed during the pandemic, capital also became dysfunctional and even completed the process with serious losses.
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Eroshenko, G. A., E. F. Batieva, and V. V. Kutyrev. "Paleogenomics of the Plague Agent and Prospects for Paleogenomic Studies in Russia." Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections, no. 2 (July 11, 2023): 13–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2023-2-13-28.
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The review contains information on paleogenomic studies of the plague pathogen, Yersinia pestis, covering the prehistoric epoch, the periods of the first and second plague pandemics, epidemics and outbreaks of plague of the late XIX–XX centuries. We have summarized the data on the reconstruction of ancient Y. pestis genomes of the Late Neolithic, Bronze and Iron Ages, the Justinian Plague epidemic of the first plague pandemic, the Black Death epidemic and the subsequent epidemics of the second plague pandemic of the XIV–XVIII centuries, as well as on tracing the pathways of plague propagation waves in Eurasia and the course of plague agent evolution with the formation of a vector-borne transmission route with the help of arthropods. We present the results of our own research of Y. pestis genomes from the key sites of formation of etiological agents of the first and second plague pandemics in the Tien Shan Mountains, historical outbreaks in the Northern and North-Western Caspian sea region and other regions of Russia and adjoining countries in the late XIX–XX centuries. The paper discusses the areas of the Caucasus, Crimea, Northern Caspian, Siberia, and Tien Shan in the territory of Russia and neighboring states that are promising for national paleogenomic studies of plague.
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Ivashchenko, Daria, and Oleksandr Kutsenko. "OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF METHODS FOR MODELING THE EPIDEMIC DEVELOPMENT PROCESS." Bulletin of National Technical University "KhPI". Series: System Analysis, Control and Information Technologies, no. 1 (5) (July 12, 2021): 16–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.20998/2079-0023.2021.01.03.
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Today, the urgent problem facing humanity is the problem of fighting epidemics and pandemics. One of the ways to solve this problem is the use of mathematical methods for predicting the pandemic process and assessing the impact of measures taken by health authorities to reduce the rate of development of the disease. Based on the analysis of a variety of information sources, the article considers the most effective approach to mathematical and computer modeling of the development of the epidemic on the basis of individually oriented and multi-agent approaches. The analysis of the problem of modeling the development of epidemics on the basis of a multi-agent approach, as well as the possibilities of predicting the course of the epidemiological process is carried out. An example of the structure of a multicomponent simulation model based on the generally accepted verbal model of the spread of viral diseases is given. As an example, the methodology of simulation agent-based modeling using the Any Logic software product of distribution processes 2019-nCoV is considered. The obtained averaged indicators confirmed the main hourly average periods of infection, which were obtained by purely statistical methods. Based on the analysis of published works, the possibilities of managing the development of the epidemic by influencing these factors have been investigated. A relatively simple method of mathematical modeling and forecasting of the epidemic situation has been proposed. It is shown that a timely and adequate forecast is a prerequisite for planning the structure, scale, timing of the necessary measures aimed at preventing epidemics and outbreaks of disease, as well as reducing and eliminating their negative consequences.
Keywords: agent simulation, epidemic, math modeling, pandemic, prognostication, simulation.
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Vaishnavi Yadav, Waqar M. Naqvi, and Tasneem Burhani. "Pandemics and Physiotherapy: An overview of the role of the Physiotherapists in restoring functions and quality of life." International Journal of Research in Pharmaceutical Sciences 11, SPL1 (December 21, 2020): 1898–901. http://dx.doi.org/10.26452/ijrps.v11ispl1.4550.
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Pandemic is an epidemic that has becomes very widespread and affects the entire vicinity, a continent, and the world because of the vulnerable population. Management of pandemic consequence puts a great load on the healthcare sector. It demands great manpower from every sector for the smooth run of the daily essential services. Health care workers play a crucial role in delivering health care services during such pandemics. Physiotherapists are the allied health care professionals which provide primary, secondary, and tertiary level of health care services. The report provides a brief idea about the different roles played by physiotherapists for restoring ability and better functioning of an individual and society as a whole during various epidemics and pandemics.
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Loeffler-Wirth, Henry, Maria Schmidt, and Hans Binder. "Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories–Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context." Viruses 12, no. 7 (July 20, 2020): 777. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12070777.
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The Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with marked differences between regions and countries. These are not completely understood, but presumably, provide a clue to find ways to mitigate epidemics until strategies leading to its eradication become available. We describe an iteractive monitoring tool available in the internet. It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories that visualize the transmission and removal rates of the epidemic and in this way bridge epi-curve tracking with modelling approaches. Examples were provided which characterize state of epidemic in different regions of the world in terms of fast and slow growing and decaying regimes and estimate associated rate factors. The basic spread of the disease is associated with transmission between two individuals every two-three days on the average. Non-pharmaceutical interventions decrease this value to up to ten days, whereas ‘complete lock down’ measures are required to stop the epidemic. Comparison of trajectories revealed marked differences between the countries regarding efficiency of measures taken against the epidemic. Trajectories also reveal marked country-specific recovery and death rate dynamics. The results presented refer to the pandemic state in May to July 2020 and can serve as ‘working instruction’ for timely monitoring using the interactive monitoring tool as a sort of ‘seismometer’ for the evaluation of the state of epidemic, e.g., the possible effect of measures taken in both, lock-down and lock-up directions. Comparison of trajectories between countries and regions will support developing hypotheses and models to better understand regional differences of dynamics of Covid-19.
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He, Ping, Yu Gao, Longfei Guo, Tongtong Huo, Yuxin Li, Xingren Zhang, Yunfeng Li, Cheng Peng, and Fanyun Meng. "Evaluating the Disaster Risk of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using an Ecological Niche Model." Sustainability 13, no. 21 (October 22, 2021): 11667. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132111667.
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Since 2019, the novel coronavirus has spread rapidly worldwide, greatly affecting social stability and human health. Pandemic prevention has become China’s primary task in responding to the transmission of COVID-19. Risk mapping and the proposal and implementation of epidemic prevention measures emphasize many research efforts. In this study, we collected location information for confirmed COVID-19 cases in Beijing, Shenyang, Dalian, and Shijiazhuang from 5 October 2020 to 5 January 2021, and selected 15 environmental variables to construct a model that comprehensively considered the parameters affecting the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 epidemics. Annual average temperature, catering, medical facilities, and other variables were processed using ArcGIS 10.3 and classified into three groups, including natural environmental variables, positive socio-environmental variables, and benign socio-environmental variables. We modeled the epidemic risk distribution for each area using the MaxEnt model based on the case occurrence data and environmental variables in four regions, and evaluated the key environmental variables influencing the epidemic distribution. The results showed that medium-risk zones were mainly distributed in Changping and Shunyi in Beijing, while Huanggu District in Shenyang and the southern part of Jinzhou District and the eastern part of Ganjingzi District in Dalian also represented areas at moderate risk of epidemics. For Shijiazhuang, Xinle, Gaocheng and other places were key COVID-19 epidemic spread areas. The jackknife assessment results revealed that positive socio-environmental variables are the most important factors affecting the outbreak and spread of COVID-19. The average contribution rate of the seafood market was 21.12%, and this contribution reached as high as 61.3% in Shenyang. The comprehensive analysis showed that improved seafood market management, strengthened crowd control and information recording, industry-catered specifications, and well-trained employees have become urgently needed prevention strategies in different regions. The comprehensive analysis indicated that the niche model could be used to classify the epidemic risk and propose prevention and control strategies when combined with the assessment results of the jackknife test, thus providing a theoretical basis and information support for suppressing the spread of COVID-19 epidemics.
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Restás, Ágoston. "Drone Applications Fighting COVID-19 Pandemic—Towards Good Practices." Drones 6, no. 1 (January 8, 2022): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/drones6010015.
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Of the recent epidemics, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly severe, not only putting our health at risk, but also negatively affecting our daily lives. As there are no developed algorithms for the use of drones in epidemiological situations, it is ideal to analyze the experience gained on drones so far and outline the effective methods for future good practice. The author relies on a method of analyzing widely available open information, such as images and videos available on the Internet, reports from drone users, announcements by drone manufacturers and the contents of newspaper articles. Furthermore, the author has relied on the results of the relevant literature, as well as previous experience as a drone user and fire commander. The study reveals numerous possibilities associated with drone usage in epidemic related situations, but previous applications are based on previous experience gained during a non-epidemic situation, without developed algorithms. Applications can be divided into different types of groups: drones can collect data for management and provide information to the public, perform general or special logistical tasks to support health care and disinfect to reduce the risk of spreading the epidemic.
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Karpova, L. S., M. Yu Pelikh, K. M. Volik, N. M. Popovtseva, T. P. Stolyarova, and D. A. Lioznov. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of New Criteria for Early Detection of the Start and Intensity of Influenza Epidemics in Russian Federation." Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention 22, no. 6 (January 4, 2024): 4–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2023-22-6-4-18.
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Relevance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, an early determination of the start of the influenza epidemic by the incidence of influenza and SARS in total is impossible, due to the similarity of the clinical picture of SARS and lung cases of COVID-19.Aim. The goal is to calculate and test new criteria for early detection of the start of influenza epidemics and their intensity for each of the cities–reference bases (61) of the 2 WHO National Influenza Centers based on the incidence of clinically diagnosed influenza.Tasks. To evaluate the effectiveness of baseline influenza incidence and epidemic intensity thresholds for the general population and age groups of each city in the epidemic of 2022–2023. To give a retrospective assessment of the effectiveness of influenza baselines for cities, compared with the baselines of the corresponding Federal Districts, for the seasons from 2009 to 2022. To estimate the intensity of epidemics by influenza incidence over the previous epidemies of the pandemic cycle of influenza A/California/H1N1/ virus.Materials and methods. By the 2022–2023 season. baseline lines and thresholds of influenza incidence intensity were calculated using the method of moving epidemics according to clinical diagnostic data not only for federal districts, but also for each of the observed cities (61). The calculation of the baselines was carried out according to the data of the computer database of the Influenza Research Institute on the incidence of influenza by age groups in each city over the previous 5 years in the season from 2016–2017 to 2021–2022.Results. In the 2022-23 season application of new criteria for the start of epidemics (prev.- and post-epidemic baseline influenza incidence) and their intensity revealed: early onset of the influenza epidemic (07–13.11 2022); simultaneous onset in all children's age groups; geographical spread of the epidemic in federal districts; intensity of the epidemic in the general population and age groups. The thresholds for the intensity of influenza morbidity made it possible to clarify the intensity levels of influenza epidemics from 2009 to 2023 and to show that the pandemic cycle of the influenza A(H1N1) virus continues. A comparison of the effectiveness of urban baselines with federal ones in the epidemic of 2022–2023 showed that urban baseline flu incidence lines revealed the start of epidemics 1–3 weeks earlier: among the general population in 12 cities, persons over 15 years old – in 9, children 3–6 years old – in 6 and 7–14 years old – in 5. A retrospective assessment of the effectiveness of city and federal influenza baselines (from 2009 to 2022) showed their effectiveness both in the seasons from 2009 to 2016 (before the baseline calculation period) and after. The effectiveness of urban baselines for early detection of the start of epidemics depended on the etiology of the epidemic – more with influenza A(H3N2) than with influenza A(H1N1), the level of intensity of influenza diseases and the age group of the population (more in children with low intensity and in adults with an average level).Conclusion. The results obtained on the basis of population epidemiological data on the incidence of influenza, namely, new criteria for detecting the start of an epidemic in cities, can be used in health management bodies in cities and subjects of the Russian Federation for early detection of epidemics and management decisions, timely introduction of anti-epidemic measures, creating a stock of medicines. The expected effect of the method of early epidemiological diagnosis of epidemics is a decrease in morbidity, etc.
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Ali, Muhammad, and Irum Iqrar. "PAS-ANSO Strategic Planning for Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness." Proceedings of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences: B. Life and Environmental Sciences 60, S (January 20, 2023): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.53560/ppasb(60-sp1)editorial.
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Under the ANSO (Alliance of International Science Organizations) collaborative research grants (ANSO-CR-PP-2021-05), we arranged the first event “MAAP-PAS-ANSO hybrid workshop on ecosystem restoration: one-health and pandemics” (June 05, 2022; on the occasion of world environment day) at Pakistan Academy of Sciences, Islamabad. The workshop stresses communication and collaboration for sustainable health (human, animal, and environment) and gauged issues related to the health of the planet. Under the same project, the second event “ANSO-PAS-MAAP conference on the epidemic and pandemic preparedness” (December 05-07, 2022) was organized at the Pakistan Academy of Sciences, Islamabad. The three days event emphasizes more scientific efforts and brainstorming to discuss strategies for controlling the current COVID-19 pandemic as well as future epidemics, pandemics, and emerging pathogens. The conference abstract book highlights the resource persons and their thoughts (in the form of abstracts and their biographies). Selected articles are published as a special issue in the Proceedings of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences: Part B. Life and Environmental Sciences. Moreover, the conference proceedings and recommendations have also been published in the special issue.
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Toporkov, V. P. "COVID-19 Pandemic: Duration and Epidemiological Forecast." Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections, no. 4 (January 10, 2024): 141–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2023-4-141-148.
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The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. While in March 2022, i.e. approximately two years later, the global dominance of the phylogenetic variant of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron with its associated milder clinical course of the disease was registered, and therefore an epidemiological forecast was made about the onset of a period of decline in the pandemic.The aim of this work was to determine the duration and possibility of predicting the COVID-19 pandemic based on an epidemiological assessment of its dynamics in the context of the wave-like course, phase nature, and epidemiological significance of the phylogenetic transformations of the pathogen. Materials from a global source on the Internet about daily cases of infection/deaths of COVID-19, the results of phylogenetic studies of the pathogen and their interpretation using the epidemiological method were analyzed. The evaluation of the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in the world revealed that it is a typical epidemiological variant of pandemics (epidemics) with its characteristic waves that last for months and do not coincide with the annual solar cycles. As of early March 2023, 7 waves were registered, of which the 1st–4th waves are the epidemic phase, caused by the consistent dominance of the Wuhan and Delta strains, the 6th–7th waves are the post-epidemic phase. The waves varied in duration from 4 to 7 months (M – 4.6 months) and in amplitude from 307205 to 4082344 (M – 1331389.14) peak values of the number of the infected and deaths – from 2997 to 20702 (M – 10506), accordingly. The post-epidemic phase was characterized by a steady trend of quantitative decrease in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in the form of undulating dynamics with steadily decreasing amplitude of the waves of the number of infected people against the background of a sharp decrease in the number of lethal outcomes compared to the epidemic phase. The continuation of this trend is expected in the form of two more waves of small amplitude (8th and 9th) with a total duration of about 10 months; the completion of the postepidemic phase is predicted in the first half of 2024. Data on the phase nature of the pandemic, determined by genomic changes in the pathogen, are necessary to be prepared for future pandemics.
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Sanz, Ivan, Sonia Tamames, Silvia Rojo, Mar Justel, José Eugenio Lozano, Carlos Disdier, Tomás Vega, and Raúl Ortiz de Lejarazu. "Viral Etiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations during the A/H1N1pdm09 Pandemic and Postpandemic Period." Advances in Virology 2015 (2015): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/560679.
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Viral infections are one of the main causes of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPD). Emergence of A/H1N1pdm influenza virus in the 2009 pandemic changed the viral etiology of exacerbations that were reported before the pandemic. The aim of this study was to describe the etiology of respiratory viruses in 195 Spanish patients affected by AE-COPD from the pandemic until the 2011-12 influenza epidemic. During the study period (2009–2012), respiratory viruses were identified in 48.7% of samples, and the proportion of viral detections in AE-COPD was higher in patients aged 30–64 years than ≥65 years. Influenza A viruses were the pathogens most often detected during the pandemic and the following two influenza epidemics in contradistinction to human rhino/enteroviruses that were the main viruses causing AE-COPD before the pandemic. The probability of influenza virus detection was 2.78-fold higher in patients who are 30–64 years old than those ≥65. Most respiratory samples were obtained during the pandemic, but the influenza detection rate was higher during the 2011-12 epidemic. There is a need for more accurate AE-COPD diagnosis, emphasizing the role of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, diagnosis requires increased attention to patient age and the characteristics of each influenza epidemic.
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Dos Santos, Edilaine Soares, Cilmara Perrotti Santos, and Rebeca Duailibe Gomes. "Conceito de saúde em tempos de epidemia/pandemia: Revisão de literatura / health in epidemic / pandemic times." Brazilian Journal of Development 7, no. 11 (November 8, 2021): 102850–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.34117/bjdv7n11-080.
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