Relevant bibliographies by topics / Epidemic fade-out

Academic literature on the topic 'Epidemic fade-out'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 29 January 2023

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles

Select a source type:

Contents

Consult the lists of relevant articles, books, theses, conference reports, and other scholarly sources on the topic 'Epidemic fade-out.'

Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.

You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.

Journal articles on the topic "Epidemic fade-out"

1

Ballard, P. G., N. G. Bean, and J. V. Ross. "Intervention to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out." Mathematical Biosciences 293 (November 2017): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2017.08.003.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Alahakoon, Punya, James M. McCaw, and Peter G. Taylor. "Estimation of the probability of epidemic fade-out from multiple outbreak data." Epidemics 38 (March 2022): 100539. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100539.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

O'Regan, Suzanne M., Krisztian Magori, J. Tomlin Pulliam, Marcus A. Zokan, RajReni B. Kaul, Heather D. Barton, and John M. Drake. "Multi-scale model of epidemic fade-out: Will local extirpation events inhibit the spread of white-nose syndrome?" Ecological Applications 25, no. 3 (April 2015): 621–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-0417.1.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Parag, Kris V. "Sub-spreading events limit the reliable elimination of heterogeneous epidemics." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 18, no. 181 (August 2021): 20210444. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0444.

Full text
Abstract:
We show that sub-spreading events, i.e. transmission events in which an infection propagates to few or no individuals, can be surprisingly important for defining the lifetime of an infectious disease epidemic and hence its waiting time to elimination or fade-out, measured from the time-point of its last observed case. While limiting super-spreading promotes more effective control when cases are growing, we find that when incidence is waning, curbing sub-spreading is more important for achieving reliable elimination of the epidemic. Controlling super-spreading in this low-transmissibility phase offers diminishing returns over non-selective, population-wide measures. By restricting sub-spreading, we efficiently dampen remaining variations among the reproduction numbers of infectious events, which minimizes the risk of premature and late end-of-epidemic declarations. Because case-ascertainment or reporting rates can be modelled in exactly the same way as control policies, we concurrently show that the under-reporting of sub-spreading events during waning phases will engender overconfident assessments of epidemic elimination. While controlling sub-spreading may not be easily realized, the likely neglecting of these events by surveillance systems could result in unexpectedly risky end-of-epidemic declarations. Super-spreading controls the size of the epidemic peak but sub-spreading mediates the variability of its tail.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Ballard, P. G., N. G. Bean, and J. V. Ross. "The probability of epidemic fade-out is non-monotonic in transmission rate for the Markovian SIR model with demography." Journal of Theoretical Biology 393 (March 2016): 170–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.01.012.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

NODELIJK, G., M. C. M. DE JONG, A. VAN NES, J. C. M. VERNOOY, L. A. M. G. VAN LEENGOED, J. M. A. POL, and J. H. M. VERHEIJDEN. "Introduction, persistence and fade-out of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in a Dutch breeding herd: a mathematical analysis." Epidemiology and Infection 124, no. 1 (February 2000): 173–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268899003246.

Full text
Abstract:
The objective of this study was to investigate the dynamics of PRRSV infection and to quantify transmission within a breeding herd, and its impact on herd performance. For this purpose a longitudinal study was performed in a closed breeding herd of 115 sows. Statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulations based on stochastic SIR models were used to analyse the observational data. Moreover, a case-control study was performed to determine whether seroconversion of sows during gestation was associated with aberrant litters. The transmission parameter R was estimated to be 3·0 (95% confidence interval 1·5–6·0) for the model version based on the most plausible assumptions that the infectious period lasts 56 days and no lifelong immunity exists after infection. Based on simulations using a breeding herd of equal size the average time-to-extinction was estimated to be 6 years; using a herd of twice the size, it was 80 years. Furthermore, in contrast to the epidemic phase of the disease, the endemic phase was not detrimental to herd performance.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Nanda, Muhammad Achirul, Anifatul Faricha, Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah, Ni'matut Tamimah, Enny Indasyah, Muhammad Falahudin Malich Salaz, Qurrotun 'Ayun Mawadatur Rohmah, and Ulfah Abqari. "The susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model for long-term identification of key epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 in Indonesia." International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) 12, no. 3 (June 1, 2022): 2900. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v12i3.pp2900-2910.

Full text
Abstract:
<span>The COVID-19 epidemic has spread massively to almost all countries including Indonesia, in just a few months. An important step to overcoming the spread of the COVID-19 is understanding its epidemiology through mathematical modeling intervention. Knowledge of epidemic dynamics patterns is an important part of making timely decisions and preparing hospitals for the outbreak peak. In this study, we developed the susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD) model, which incorporates the key epidemiological parameters to model and estimate the long-term spread of the COVID-19. The proposed model formulation is data-based analysis using public COVID-19 data from March 2, 2020 to May 15, 2021. Based on numerical analysis, the spread of the pandemic will begin to fade out after November 5, 2021. As a consequence of this virus attack, the cumulative number of infected, recovered, and dead people were estimated at ≈ 3,200,000, ≈ 3,437,000 and ≈ 63,000 people, respectively. Besides, the key epidemiological parameter indicates that the average reproduction number value of COVID-19 in Indonesia is 7.32. The long-term prediction of COVID-19 in Indonesia and its epidemiology can be well described using the SIRD model. The model can be applied in specific regions or cities in understanding the epidemic pattern of COVID-19.</span>
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
8

Machado, Beatriz, Liliana Antunes, Constantino Caetano, João F. Pereira, Baltazar Nunes, Paula Patrício, and M. Luísa Morgado. "The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal." Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 19, no. 1 (2021): 936–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2022043.

Full text
Abstract:
<abstract><p>In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.</p></abstract>
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
9

Saeidpour, Arash, Shweta Bansal, and Pejman Rohani. "Dissecting recurrent waves of pertussis across the boroughs of London." PLOS Computational Biology 18, no. 4 (April 14, 2022): e1009898. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009898.

Full text
Abstract:
Pertussis has resurfaced in the UK, with incidence levels not seen since the 1980s. While the fundamental causes of this resurgence remain the subject of much conjecture, the study of historical patterns of pathogen diffusion can be illuminating. Here, we examined time series of pertussis incidence in the boroughs of Greater London from 1982 to 2013 to document the spatial epidemiology of this bacterial infection and to identify the potential drivers of its percolation. The incidence of pertussis over this period is characterized by 3 distinct stages: a period exhibiting declining trends with 4-year inter-epidemic cycles from 1982 to 1994, followed by a deep trough until 2006 and the subsequent resurgence. We observed systematic temporal trends in the age distribution of cases and the fade-out profile of pertussis coincident with increasing national vaccine coverage from 1982 to 1990. To quantify the hierarchy of epidemic phases across the boroughs of London, we used the Hilbert transform. We report a consistent pattern of spatial organization from 1982 to the early 1990s, with some boroughs consistently leading epidemic waves and others routinely lagging. To determine the potential drivers of these geographic patterns, a comprehensive parallel database of borough-specific features was compiled, comprising of demographic, movement and socio-economic factors that were used in statistical analyses to predict epidemic phase relationships among boroughs. Specifically, we used a combination of a feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to quantify the contribution of each covariate to model predictions. Our analyses identified a number of predictors of a borough’s historical epidemic phase, specifically the age composition of households, the number of agricultural and skilled manual workers, latitude, the population of public transport commuters and high-occupancy households. Univariate regression analysis of the 2012 epidemic identified the ratio of cumulative unvaccinated children to the total population and population of Pakistan-born population to have moderate positive and negative association, respectively, with the timing of epidemic. In addition to providing a comprehensive overview of contemporary pertussis transmission in a large metropolitan population, this study has identified the characteristics that determine the spatial spread of this bacterium across the boroughs of London.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Hughes, Gareth J., Valerie Mioulet, Daniel T. Haydon, R. Paul Kitching, Alex I. Donaldson, and Mark E. J. Woolhouse. "Serial passage of foot-and-mouth disease virus in sheep reveals declining levels of viraemia over time." Journal of General Virology 83, no. 8 (August 1, 2002): 1907–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1099/0022-1317-83-8-1907.

Full text
Abstract:
If an infectious agent is to maintain itself within a closed population by means of an unbroken serial chain of infections, it must maintain the level of infectiousness of individuals through time, or termination of the transmission chain is inevitable. One possible cause of diminution in infectiousness along serial chains of transmission may be that individuals are unable to amplify and transmit comparable levels of the infectious agent. Here, the results are reported of a novel experiment designed specifically to assess the effects of serial passage of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in experimental groups of sheep. A virus isolate taken from an epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) characterized by rapid fade-out of infection was passed serially through four groups of sheep housed in an isolation unit. Although it was not possible to measure individual infectiousness directly, blood virus load from infected individuals was quantified using a real-time PCR assay and used as an underlying indicator of the level of infection. The results of this assay concurred well with those of the traditional tissue-culture assay and were shown to be highly repeatable. The level of peak viraemia was shown to fall significantly with the time of infection and with passage group, both in terms of the group mean and regression analysis of individual values, suggesting that this isolate of FMDV may, under certain conditions, be unable to maintain itself indefinitely in susceptible sheep populations. The results of these experiments are discussed in terms of the epidemiology of FMD in sheep.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
More sources

Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Epidemic fade-out"

1

Ballard, Peter Geoffrey. "Epidemic fade-out in the Markovian SIR-with-demography infection model." Thesis, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/118214.

Full text
Abstract:
“Epidemic fade-out” refers to the situation in which an infection is eliminated after an initial major wave of infection. This thesis by publication contains three papers (two published, the third submitted and under review) on the subject of epidemic fade-out in the Markovian SIR-with-demography infection model. The first paper [6] surveys previous work containing methods for approximating the probability of epidemic fade-out, then proposes a numerical method which is more accurate. Using this method, it surveys trends over a range of parameters, and observes that the probability of epidemic fade-out has a non-monotonic relationship with respect to β, the transmission rate parameter. It shows that this probability often has a local maximum where R0, the basic reproduction number, is about 2; and gives an explanation for this phenomenon. The second paper [7] examines the possibility of controlling β, in order to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out. An optimal policy may be found using Markov decision theory, but this requires very large data structures, meaning this is impractical for all but very small population sizes. So the paper also derives a simple formula for an almost-optimal policy, which can be applied for any population size, and is independent of the values of β. The third paper [8] extends the Markovian SIR-with-demography infection model to allow β to be time dependent, as the transmission rate may vary with the time of year. It also extends the work to the Markovian SIRS model. It presents an algorithm for calculating the probability of epidemic fade-out for these models, and considers parameters appropriate to influenza-like and measles-like infections. It concludes that the local maximum in the probability of epidemic fade-out is at a value of R0 somewhat greater than 2, when β is time-dependent.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, 2018
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
You might also be interested in the extended bibliographies on the topic 'Epidemic fade-out' for particular source types:
Journal articles
We offer discounts on all premium plans for authors whose works are included in thematic literature selections. Contact us to get a unique promo code!

To the bibliography