Journal articles on the topic 'ENSO phenomenon'
To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: ENSO phenomenon.
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 journal articles for your research on the topic 'ENSO phenomenon.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse journal articles on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Dijkstra, H. A. "The ENSO phenomenon: theory and mechanisms." Advances in Geosciences 6 (January 9, 2006): 3–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-3-2006.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. The variability in the equatorial Tropical Pacific is characterized by sea-surface temperature anomalies and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation. Through an enormous monitoring effort over the last decades, the relevant time scales and spatial patterns are fairly well-documented. In the meantime, a hierarchy of models has been developed to understand the physics of this phenomenon and to make predictions of future variability. In this short review, I try to summarize theories and mechanisms about variability in such a way that these are accessible to a diverse group of researchers, such as that present in Guayaquil (in May 2005) at the First International Alexander Von Humboldt Conference "The El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact".
2
McGregor, Glenn, and Kristie Ebi. "El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Health: An Overview for Climate and Health Researchers." Atmosphere 9, no. 7 (July 19, 2018): 282. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9070282.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of climatic variability that exerts a discernible impact on ecosystems and society through alterations in climate patterns. For this reason, ENSO has attracted much interest in the climate and health science community, with many analysts investigating ENSO health links through considering the degree of dependency of the incidence of a range of climate diseases on the occurrence of El Niño events. Because of the mounting interest in the relationship between ENSO as a major mode of climatic variability and health, this paper presents an overview of the basic characteristics of the ENSO phenomenon and its climate impacts, discusses the use of ENSO indices in climate and health research, and outlines the present understanding of ENSO health associations. Also touched upon are ENSO-based seasonal health forecasting and the possible impacts of climate change on ENSO and the implications this holds for future assessments of ENSO health associations. The review concludes that there is still some way to go before a thorough understanding of the association between ENSO and health is achieved, with a need to move beyond analyses undertaken through a purely statistical lens, with due acknowledgement that ENSO is a complex non-canonical phenomenon, and that simple ENSO health associations should not be expected.
3
Zhao, Yaodi, and De-Zheng Sun. "ENSO Asymmetry in CMIP6 Models." Journal of Climate 35, no. 17 (September 1, 2022): 5555–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0835.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract An interesting aspect of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the asymmetry between its two phases. This paper evaluates the simulations of this property of ENSO by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Both the surface and subsurface signals of ENSO are examined for this purpose. The results show that the models still underestimate ENSO asymmetry as shown in the SST field, but do a better job in the subsurface. A much weaker negative feedback from the net surface heat flux during La Niña in the models is identified as a factor causing the degradation of the ENSO asymmetry at the surface. The simulated asymmetry in the subsurface is still weaker than the observations owing to a weaker dynamic coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. Consistent with the finding of a weaker dynamic coupling strength, the precipitation response to the SST changes is also found to be weaker in the models. The results underscore that a more objective assessment of the simulation of ENSO by climate models may have to involve the examination of the subsurface signals. Future improvements in simulating ENSO will likely require a better simulation of the surface heat flux feedback from the atmosphere as well as the dynamical coupling strength between the atmosphere and ocean. Significance Statement The ENSO phenomenon affects weather and climate worldwide. An interesting aspect of this phenomenon is the asymmetry between its two phases. Previous studies have reported a weaker asymmetry in the simulations by climate models. But these studies have focused on the ENSO asymmetry at the surface. Here by examining the ENSO asymmetry at the surface and the subsurface, we have found that ENSO asymmetry is better simulated in the subsurface than at the surface. We have also identified factors that are responsible for the degradation of the ENSO asymmetry at the surface as well as the remaining weakness in the subsurface, pointing out specific pathways to take to further improve ENSO simulations by coupled climate models.
4
Saputra, Candra, I. Wayan Arthana, and I. Gede Hendrawan. "THE VULNERABILITY STUDY OF LEMURU (SARDINELLA LEMURU) FISH RESOURCES SUSTAINABILITY IN BALI STRAIT IN CORELLATION WITH ENSO AND IOD." ECOTROPHIC : Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan (Journal of Environmental Science) 11, no. 2 (November 30, 2017): 140. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/ejes.2017.v11.i02.p02.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this research is to know the relationship between lemuru fish catch to Sea Surface Temperature (SST), El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon in Bali Strait. The results showed, that in the period 2007 – 2016. fluctuations of catches lemuru tends to decline. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distribution with the lowest temperature 25,28oC at 24,53oC - 27,16oC and the highest temperature is 29,31oC in the range of 28,730C – 30,490C. The lowest temperature occurred in July - September while the highest temperature occurred in January - April. Based on the calculation there is a linkage and relationship between catch and SST as shown on the value of determination and correlation reached 50,0% and 70,73%. Most of the catches occurred in the west season and then the transition II, transition I and East Season. The relationship of ENSO phenomenon to the catch during the El-Nino phase of lemuru catch will increase while in the phase of La-Nina the catch of lemuru will decrease, because time of El-Nino phase of the sea surface temperature (SST) relative low which results in the chlorophyll-a mean case which is a food sources of lemuru fish. Based on Trenberth's theory, (1997), the rise and fall of the ENSO Index of less than six months is not stated in ENSO. From the calculation results during the research of 2007 - 2016 happened three times ENSO phenomenon that is in 2009, 2010 and 2015. At the time of the IOD phenomenon, the IOD (+) phase will result in a decrease in catch while the normal IOD phase and (-) will increase the catch. From the results of this study can also be observed, in the year 2007 - 2011 phenomenon ENSO and IOD have a strong influence on the catch while in the year 2012 - 2016 the influence of the phenomenon of ENSO and IOD has no strong influence caused by the quantity of lemuru fish that have been over exploitation that resulted in the current Bali Strait on Over Fishing status.
Keywords : Fish Catch; El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD)
5
YUAN, XIAOJUN. "ENSO-related impacts on Antarctic sea ice: a synthesis of phenomenon and mechanisms." Antarctic Science 16, no. 4 (November 30, 2004): 415–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102004002238.
Full textAbstract:
Many remote and local climate variabilities influence Antarctic sea ice at different time scales. The strongest sea ice teleconnection at the interannual time scale was found between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and a high latitude climate mode named the Antarctic Dipole. The Antarctic Dipole is characterized by an out-of-phase relationship between sea ice and surface temperature anomalies in the South Pacific and South Atlantic, manifesting itself and persisting 3–4 seasons after being triggered by the ENSO forcing. This study examines the life cycles of ENSO warm and cold events in the tropics and associated evolution of the ADP in high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. In evaluating the mechanisms that form the ADP, the study suggests a synthesized scheme that links these high latitude processes with ENSO teleconnection in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The synthesized scheme suggests that the two main mechanisms responsible for the formation/maintenance of the Antarctic Dipole are the heat flux due to the mean meridional circulation of the regional Ferrel Cell and regional anomalous circulation generated by stationary eddies. The changes in the Hadley Cell, the jet stream in the subtropics, and the Rossby Wave train associated with ENSO link the tropical forcing to these high latitude processes. Moreover, these two mechanisms operate in phase and are comparable in magnitude. The positive feedback between the jet stream and stationary eddies in the atmosphere, the positive feedback within the air-sea-ice system, and the seasonality all reinforce the anomalies, resulting in persistent Antarctic Dipole anomalies.
6
SINGH, O. P., TARIQ MASOOD ALI KHAN, and MD SAZEDUR RAHMAN. "Tropical cyclone frequency in the north Indian Ocean in relation to southern oscillation phenomenon." MAUSAM 52, no. 3 (January 11, 2022): 511–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v52i3.1720.
Full textAbstract:
The present paper deals with the influence of Southern Oscillation (SO) on the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. The results show that during the negative phase of SO the frequency of tropical cyclones and depressions over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea diminishes in May which is most important pre-monsoon cyclone month. The correlation coefficient between the frequency of cyclones and depressions and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is +0.3 which is significant at 99% level. Post-monsoon cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal during November shows a significant positive correlation with SOl implying that it also decreases during the negative phase of SO. Thus there is a reduction in the tropical cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during both intense cyclone months May and November in EI-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) epochs. Therefore it would not be correct to say that ENSO has no impact on the cyclogenesis in the north Indian Ocean. It is true that ENSO has no significant impact on the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. ENSO also seems to affect the rate of intensification of depressions to cyclone stage. The rate of intensification increases in May and diminishes in November in the north Indian Ocean during ENSO. The results are based on the analysis of monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones and depressions and SOI for the 100 year period from 1891-1990.
7
Andrade-Bejarano, Mercedes. "Monthly Average Temperature Modeling in an Intertropical Region." Weather and Forecasting 28, no. 5 (October 1, 2013): 1099–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-12-00077.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Data for this research come from time series of monthly average temperatures from 28 sites over the Valle del Cauca of Colombia in South America, collected over the period 1971–2002. Because of the geographical location of the study area, monthly average temperature is affected by altitude and El Niño–La Niña (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO phenomenon). Time series for some of the sites show a tendency to increase. Also, because of the two dry and wet periods in the study area, a seasonal pattern of behavior in monthly average temperature is seen. Linear mixed models are formulated and fitted to account for within- and between-site variations. The ENSO phenomenon is modeled by the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and dummy variables. Spatial and temporal covariance structures in the errors are modeled individually using isotropic variogram models. The fitted models demonstrate the influence of the ENSO phenomenon on monthly average temperatures; this is seen in the maps produced from the models for ENSO and normal conditions. These maps show the predicted spatial patterns for differences in temperature throughout the study area.
8
Suhaila, Jamaludin. "Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation." Climate 9, no. 7 (July 15, 2021): 118. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli9070118.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known cause of year-to-year climatic variations on Earth. Floods, droughts, and other natural disasters have been linked to the ENSO in various parts of the world. Hence, modeling the ENSO’s effects and the anomaly of the ENSO phenomenon has become a main research interest. Statistical methods, including linear and nonlinear models, have intensively been used in modeling the ENSO index. However, these models are unable to capture sufficient information on ENSO index variability, particularly on its temporal aspects. Hence, this study adopted functional data analysis theory by representing a multivariate ENSO index (MEI) as functional data in climate applications. This study included the functional principal component, which is purposefully designed to find new functions that reveal the most important type of variation in the MEI curve. Simultaneously, graphical methods were also used to visualize functional data and capture outliers that may not have been apparent from the original data plot. The findings suggest that the outliers obtained from the functional plot are then related to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. In conclusion, the functional framework was found to be more flexible in representing the climate phenomenon as a whole.
9
Puspasari, R., P. F. Rahmawati, and E. Prianto. "The Effect of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon on Fishing Season of Small Pelagic Fishes in Indonesia Waters." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 934, no. 1 (November 1, 2021): 012018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/934/1/012018.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon causes changes in environmental conditions such as water temperature, salinity, and rainfall. In fisheries sector, the changing environment has affected the fishing seasons and Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) of some pelagic species. This research was conducted by calculating CPUE and fishing season index for several small pelagic fishes in Makassar Strait, Bali Strait, and Aceh waters, then comparing the index value with the fishing season pattern in two extreme periods that are 2010-2011 and 2016 - 2017. An ANOVA test was conducted to assess the significant difference between normal and extreme conditions. The results of the analysis showed that there was a significant different in CPUE between average normal condition and ENSO period. Every single species showed different response to ENSO event, mostly decreased in CPUE relate to El Nino event, except for sardine in Bali and Makassar Strait and scad in Makassar Strait. ENSO affects shift in the fishing season of big-eye scad, scad, sardine, and neritic tuna in Makassar Strait, Bali Strait, and around Aceh waters. Indian mackerel in Makassar Strait showed no change in fishing season but the CPUE showed lower than normal condition. This study shows that ENSO was significantly affected fisheries in Indonesia waters.
10
Bimaprawira, Adikusuma, and Hasti Amrih Rejeki. "KETERKAITAN PERIODISITAS CURAH HUJAN DI DAERAH PESISIR DAN PEGUNUNGAN PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN VARIABILITAS CUACA SKALA GLOBAL DAN REGIONAL." Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca 22, no. 2 (December 29, 2021): 51–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.29122/jstmc.v22i2.4422.
Full textAbstract:
Intisari Jawa Timur merupakan wilayah yang memiliki variasi curah hujan yang dipengaruhi oleh fenomena cuaca global dan regional seperti Dipole Mode, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Intertropical Convergence Zone, Madden Julian Oscillation, dan monsun. Topografi yang beragam juga menjadi faktor yang memengaruhi curah hujan di daerah Jawa Timur. Berbagai indeks digunakan untuk melihat aktivitas-aktivitas fenomena cuaca tersebut, seperti DMI untuk aktivitas Dipole Mode, NINO 3.4 untuk aktivitas ENSO, Indeks RMM untuk aktivitas MJO, WNPMI dan, AUSMI untuk aktivitas monsun. Pada penelitian ini digunakan analisis spektral dengan menggunakan metode Fast Fourier Transform untuk melihat periodisitas indeks masing-masing terhadap periodisitas curah hujan dari data 11 pos hujan yang terbagi menjadi 6 pos hujan daerah pesisir dan 5 pos hujan daerah pegunungan. Hasil dari penyeragaman periodisitas fenomena cuaca dengan curah hujan antara lain Dipole Mode (periodisitas 18 bulan), ENSO (periodisitas 18 dan 40 bulan), dan MJO (periodisitas 2 dan 3 bulan). Fenomena yang memengaruhi curah hujan di daerah pesisir maupun pegunungan secara dominan adalah fenomena monsun dengan diikuti ITCZ. Fenomena lain yang memengaruhi di daerah pesisir antara lain dominan MJO, serta fenomena ENSO dan Dipole Mode yang memengaruhi daerah Lamongan, Bunder, dan P3GI dengan kecenderungan lebih kuat pada fenomena Dipole Mode. Sementara itu, fenomena yang memengaruhi hujan di daerah pegunungan secara dominan adalah ENSO. Adapun fenomena lain yang memengaruhi hujan di daerah pegunungan antara lain fenomena MJO di daerah Tosari, serta daerah Kebon Teh Wonosari yang memiliki kecenderungan dipengaruhi oleh fenomena Dipole Mode meskipun pengaruhnya tidak signifikan. Abstract East Java is a region whose variations in rainfall are influenced by global and regional weather phenomena such as Dipole Mode, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Intertropical Convergence Zone, Madden Julian Oscillation, and monsoons. Diverse topography is also a factor affecting rainfall in the area of East Java. Various indices are used to observe the activities of the weather phenomenon, such as DMI for Dipole Mode activities, NINO 3.4 for ENSO activities, RMM Index for MJO activities, as well as WNPMI and AUSMI for monsoon activities. In this study, spectral analysis was used by utilizing the Fast Fourier Transform method to see the periodicity of each index against the periodicity of rainfall from the 11 rainwater data points, which were divided into 6 coastal data points and 5 mountainous data points. Uniformity of weather phenomena with rainfall result among others Dipole Mode (18 months periodicity), ENSO (18 and 40-month periodicity), and MJO (2 and 3-month periodicity). Phenomena that affect rainfall in coastal and mountainous areas predominantly are monsoon, followed by ITCZ. Other phenomena affecting the coastal area include MJO dominant, and the ENSO and Dipole Mode phenomena that affect the Lamongan, Bunder, and P3GI regions with a stronger tendency to the Dipole Mode phenomenon. Another phenomenon that influences rain in the mountainous area is dominantly ENSO, while other phenomena include MJO phenomena in the Tosari area and Kebon Teh Wonosari region which has a tendency to be influenced by the Dipole Mode phenomenon despite the insignificant effect.
11
Kleeman, Richard. "Stochastic theories for the irregularity of ENSO." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 366, no. 1875 (April 29, 2008): 2509–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0048.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the dominant climatic fluctuation on interannual time scales. It is an irregular oscillation with a distinctive broadband spectrum. In this article, we discuss recent theories that seek to explain this irregularity. Particular attention is paid to explanations that involve the stochastic forcing of the slow ocean modes by fast atmospheric transients. We present a theoretical framework for analysing this picture of the irregularity and also discuss the results from a number of coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Finally, we briefly review the implications of the various explanations of ENSO irregularity to attempts to predict this economically significant phenomenon.
12
Kane, R. P. "Extremes of the ENSO phenomenon and Indian summer monsoon rainfall." International Journal of Climatology 18, no. 7 (June 15, 1998): 775–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(19980615)18:7<775::aid-joc254>3.0.co;2-d.
Full text
13
Holmgren, M., P. Stapp, C. R. Dickman, C. Gracia, S. Graham, J. R. Gutiérrez, C. Hice, et al. "A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America." Advances in Geosciences 6 (January 9, 2006): 69–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-69-2006.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1), a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia). Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.
14
Julianto, Mochamad Tito, Septian Dhimas, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Sri Nurdiati, and Pandu Septiawan. "Identification of Global Warming Contribution to the El Niño Phenomenon Using Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis." Agromet 35, no. 1 (February 19, 2021): 11–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.35.1.11-19.
Full textAbstract:
Sea surface temperature (SST) is identified as one of the essential climate/ocean variables. The increased SST levels worldwide is associated with global warming which is due to excessive amounts of greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere causing the multi-decadal tendency to warmer SST. Moreover, global warming has caused more frequent extreme El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which are the most dominant mode in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on an interannual time scale. The objective of this research is to calculate the contribution of global warming to the ENSO phenomenon. SST anomalies (SSTA) variability rosed from several mechanisms with differing timescales. Therefore, the Empirical Orthogonal Function in this study was used to analyze the data of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly. By using EOF analysis, the pattern in data such as precipitation and drought pattern can be obtained. The result of this research showed that the most dominant EOF mode reveals the time series pattern of global warming, while the second most dominant EOF mode reveals the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The modes from this EOF method have good performance with 95.8% accuracy rate.
15
Ariska, Melly, Hamdi Akhsan, and Muhammad Muslim. "IMPACT PROFILE OF ENSO AND DIPOLE MODE ON RAINFALL AS ANTICIPATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS IN THE PROVINCE OF SOUTH SUMATRA." Spektra: Jurnal Fisika dan Aplikasinya 7, no. 3 (December 30, 2022): 127–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.21009/spektra.073.02.
Full textAbstract:
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, Dipole Mode (DM) is an ocean-atmosphere interaction phenomenon in the Indian Ocean. The area of South Sumatra Province, which is in the Monsunal area, makes the influence of ENSO and DM very instrumental in determining the length of the rainy season and throughout the year. The South Sumatra region is very vulnerable to forest and land fire disasters due to the condition of the area in the form of swamps and peatlands, which are very easy to burn if the dry season occurs in the South Sumatra area. In this study, an analysis of the effect of ENSO and DM on rainfall in the South Sumatra Region from 1981 to 2020 was carried out using a simple linear regression method and the correlation coefficient using Niño 3.4 index data and Dipole Mode with rainfall data and consecutive rainy days data. Consecutive Wet Day (CWD). The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of Enso and Dipole Mode on rainfall and CWD in the South Sumatra Region. The results show that the correlation between ENSO and rainfall is 0.0017-0.002573, DM and rainfall is 0.05972, and ENSO and CWD is -0.068. The correlation between DMI and CWD is 0.513. So it can be said that ENSO and DMI have no effect on rainfall in the South Sumatra Province. Still, the amount of CWD in South Sumatra Province is significantly determined by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) at a moderate level. The number of consecutive rainy days in South Sumatra Province is influenced by the dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere of the Indian Ocean, which is characterized by the presence of positive IOD and negative IOD phenomena.
16
Zhu, Xiaojie, R. Saravanan, and Ping Chang. "Influence of Mean Flow on the ENSO–Vertical Wind Shear Relationship over the Northern Tropical Atlantic." Journal of Climate 25, no. 3 (February 1, 2012): 858–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00213.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean plays an important role in mediating hurricane activity. The vertical shear variability over the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes is affected by local factors as well as by the remote influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, as indicated by observational and climate modeling analyses. Climate model simulations of the ENSO–shear relationship are compared with observations. It is shown that there is a strong influence of background mean flow on the ENSO–shear relationship, because of the inherently nonlinear nature of vertical wind shear. In particular, the simulation of zonal flow over the tropical Atlantic is shown to play a critical role in how the remote influence of ENSO modulates the shear. Even with realistic simulations of the ENSO-induced westerly anomaly in the upper troposphere, overestimated easterly background flow in the model simulations can alter the relationship between ENSO and vertical wind shear, resulting in decreased vertical wind shear during warm ENSO events. This nonlinear superposition has important implications for the assessment of trends in large-scale environmental factors affecting tropical cyclogenesis in climate change simulations.
17
Gergis, J. L., and A. M. Fowler. "How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002." Advances in Geosciences 6 (February 1, 2006): 173–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D. 1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis. Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D. 1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies. Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Niña events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries. Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478-year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D. 1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Niño conditions in recent decades. Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability appears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries.
18
Verdugo, Raúl Alejandro Orrego, and Nelba Verónica Gaete Castañeda. "¿Es el clima de Chile un “juego de Niños”?" South Florida Journal of Development 2, no. 4 (September 3, 2021): 5818–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.46932/sfjdv2n4-064.
Full textAbstract:
El Niño-South Oscillation (ENSO) is an atmospheric and oceanic phenomenon which historically shown an important relationship whit the Chilean center-southern rainfall. Thus, usually it is used for predictions mainly in newspaper articles, but it is an unsuitable approximation. Although ENSO effect is a fact, there are other indexes which mitigate ENSO impacts and they get little attention. Thus, in this work we describe the main issues related with the atmospheric phenomena remarking just the phenomena which usually are not considered in researches focused in general Public: Pacific decadal oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation. Also, we show the general impact of these phenomenon on rainfalls in the Chilean center-southern zone.
El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) es un fenómeno atmosférico y oceánico que ha tenido históricamente una importante relación con las precipitaciones de la zona centro sur del Chile, lo que ha hecho que frecuentemente se utilice para hacer pronósticos, sobre todo en medios periodísticos, lo cual es un enfoque incorrecto. Pese a que el efecto del ENSO es innegable, hay otros índices que han recibido menos atención, y que moderan en gran medida el efecto del ENSO, por lo que merecen una atención mayor. Así, el objetivo de este artículo es mostrar los principales aspectos relacionados todos estos fenómenos atmosféricos, dando énfasis a los otros fenómenos que usualmente quedan fuera de los análisis: La Oscilación decadal del Pacífico, la Oscilación Antártica y la oscilación de Madden-Julian. De la misma manera, se mostrará el efecto que han tenido en términos generales en las precipitaciones de la zona centro-sur de Chile.
19
Herho, Sandy H. S., Ferio Brahmana, Katarina E. P. Herho, and Dasapta E. Irawan. "Does ENSO Significantly Affect Rice Production In Indonesia? A Preliminary Study Using Computational Time-Series Approach." International Journal of Data Science 2, no. 2 (December 31, 2021): 69–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.18517/ijods.2.2.69-76.2021.
Full textAbstract:
ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO Index on annual rice production in 1961- 2019. We did not find a direct correlation between these two variables, which may be due to the local influence of ENSO on different rice production areas in Indonesia. This study would also point out the importance of shifting the theme of research in Indonesia from mapping to monitoring and freely share the data. This step would bring science to progress further and faster.
20
Kishimoto-Yamada, Keiko, and Takao Itioka. "Consequences of a severe drought associated with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation on a light-attracted leaf-beetle (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) assemblage in Borneo." Journal of Tropical Ecology 24, no. 2 (March 2008): 229–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266467408004811.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs irregularly and supra-annually at intervals of 2–7 y (Hughen et al. 1999, McPhaden et al. 2006), and is the strongest source of supra-annual climate fluctuation (Hughen et al. 1999, Philander 1990). During ENSO, the interior of the South-East Asian tropics, which is characterized by constant high temperature and no distinct dry season, experiences severe drought (Walsh 1996).
21
Gelcer, Eduardo, Clyde Fraisse, Lincoln Zotarelli, Daniel Perondi, Hipólito Malia, Carvalho Ecole, and Kati Migliaccio. "A Smart Irrigation Tool to Determine the Effects of ENSO on Water Requirements for Tomato Production in Mozambique." Water 10, no. 12 (December 10, 2018): 1820. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10121820.
Full textAbstract:
Irrigation scheduling is used by growers to determine the right amount and timing of water application. In most parts of Mozambique, 90% of the total yearly precipitation occurs from November to March. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon influences the climate in Mozambique and affects the water demand for crop production. The objectives of this work were to quantify the effects of ENSO phenomenon on tomato crop water requirements, and to create the AgroClimate irrigation tool (http://mz.agroclimate.org/) to assist farmers in improving irrigation management. This study was based on daily grid-based climate information from 1983 to 2016 from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Daily crop evapotranspiration was calculated by Hargreaves equation and crop coefficients. This tool is available online and considers different planting dates, ENSO phases, and crop growing season lengths. Irrigation needs varied from less than 250 mm per growing cycle during winter to 550 mm during spring. Both El Niño and La Niña influenced the irrigation scheduling, especially from November to March. El Niño periods were related to increased water demand due to drier and warmer conditions, while the opposite was observed for La Niña. The ENSO information might be used to understand climate variability and improve tomato irrigation scheduling in Mozambique.
22
Chen, Han-Ching, and Fei-Fei Jin. "Fundamental Behavior of ENSO Phase Locking." Journal of Climate 33, no. 5 (March 1, 2020): 1953–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0264.1.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to peak at the end of the calendar year, a phenomenon called ENSO phase locking. This phase locking is a fundamental ENSO property that is determined by its basic dynamics. The conceptual ENSO recharge oscillator (RO) model is adopted to examine the ENSO phase-locking behavior in terms of its peak time, strength of phase locking, and asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. The RO model reproduces the main phase-locking characteristics found in observations, and the results show that the phase locking of ENSO is mainly dominated by the seasonal modulation of ENSO growth/decay rate. In addition, the linear/nonlinear mechanism of ENSO phase preference/phase locking is investigated using RO model. The difference between the nonlinear phase-locking mechanism and linear phase-preference mechanism is largely smoothed out in the presence of noise forcing. Further, the impact on ENSO phase locking from annual cycle modulation of the growth/decay rate, stochastic forcing, nonlinearity, and linear frequency are examined in the RO model. The preferred month of ENSO peak time depends critically on the phase and strength of the seasonal modulation of the ENSO growth/decay rate. Furthermore, the strength of phase locking is mainly controlled by the linear growth/decay rate, the amplitude of seasonal modulation of growth/decay rate, the amplitude of noise, the SST-dependent factor of multiplicative noise, and the linear frequency. The asymmetry of the sharpness of ENSO phase locking is induced by the asymmetric effect of state-dependent noise forcing in El Niño and La Niña events.
23
Ramírez-Gil, Joaquín Guillermo, Juan Camilo Henao-Rojas, and Juan Gonzalo Morales-Osorio. "Mitigation of the Adverse Effects of the El Niño (El Niño, La Niña) Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and the Most Important Diseases in Avocado cv. Hass Crops." Plants 9, no. 6 (June 24, 2020): 790. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants9060790.
Full textAbstract:
Areas cultivated with Hass avocado crops in Colombia have growth rapidly. One of the major limitations is the avocado wilt complex disease (AWC) caused by biotic and abiotic factors which have increased under the El Niño southern oscillation ENSO phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña). The objective of this study was to evaluate different strategies for mitigating the adverse effects associated with the ENSO phenomenon and AWC in avocado crops. We evaluated native materials, mulches, and parameters associated with the production of seedlings and planting practices in the field. The response variables tested were plant development, incidence, severity, mortality, and microbial dynamics, among others. The results indicated that native genotypes of Persea americana had different levels of adaptability to drought and flooding conditions. These genotypes also showed some degree of resistance to Phytophthora cinnamomi and Verticillium sp. infection with several degrees of rootstock-scion incompatibility with the Hass cultivar. In addition, mulch reduced the variability of soil moisture and temperature in the soil profile. Adequate selection of genotypes and new tools for planting have decreased the susceptibility to adverse effects associated with the ENSO phenomenon and the incidence and mortality caused by diseases under drought and flooding conditions. This work presents alternatives to mitigate adverse effects of climate variability in avocado crops under tropical conditions.
24
Kutta, Evan, Jason Hubbart, Timothy Eichler, and Anthony Lupo. "Symmetry of Energy Divergence Anomalies Associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation." Atmosphere 9, no. 9 (September 1, 2018): 342. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090342.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant source of global climate variability. The effects of this phenomenon alter the flow of heat from tropical to polar latitudes, resulting in weather and climate anomalies that are difficult to forecast. The current work quantified two components of the vertically integrated equation for the total energy content of an atmospheric column, to show the anomalous horizontal redistribution of surface heat flux anomalies. Symmetric and asymmetric components of the vertically integrated latent and sensible heat flux divergence were quantified using ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis output on 30 model layers between 1979 and 2016. Results indicate that asymmetry is a fundamental component of ENSO-induced weather and climate anomalies at the global scale, challenging the common assumption that each phase of ENSO is equal and opposite. In particular, a substantial asymmetric component was identified in the relationship between ENSO and patterns of extratropical climate variability that may be proportional to differences in sea surface temperature anomalies during each phase of ENSO. This work advances our understanding of the global distributions of source and sink regions, which may improve future predictions of ENSO-induced precipitation and surface temperature anomalies. Future studies should apply these methods to advance understanding and to validate predictions of ENSO-induced weather and climate anomalies.
25
Zhang, Li, Ping Chang, and Link Ji. "Linking the Pacific Meridional Mode to ENSO: Coupled Model Analysis." Journal of Climate 22, no. 12 (June 15, 2009): 3488–505. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2473.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The occurrence of a boreal spring phenomenon referred to as the Pacific meridional model (MM) is shown to be intimately linked to the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a long simulation of a coupled model. The MM, characterized by an anomalous north–south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is shown to be inherent to thermodynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) latitude, and the MM existence is independent of ENSO. The thermodynamic coupling enhances the persistence of the anomalous winds in the deep tropics, forcing energetic equatorially trapped oceanic waves to occur in the central western Pacific, which in turn initiate an ENSO event. The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM events.
26
Goddard, Lisa, and Maxx Dilley. "El Niño: Catastrophe or Opportunity." Journal of Climate 18, no. 5 (March 1, 2005): 651–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-3277.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, generates a significant proportion of short-term climate variations globally, second only to the seasonal cycle. Global economic losses of tens of billions of dollars are attributed to extremes of ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña), suggesting that these events disproportionately trigger socioeconomic disasters on the global scale. Since global El Niño/La Niña–associated climate impacts were first documented in the 1980s, the prevailing assumption has been that more severe and widespread climate anomalies, and, therefore, greater climate-related socioeconomic losses, should be expected during ENSO extremes. Contrary to expectations, climate anomalies associated with such losses are not greater overall during ENSO extremes than during neutral periods. However, during El Niño and La Niña events climate forecasts are shown to be more accurate. Stronger ENSO events lead to greater predictability of the climate and, potentially, the socioeconomic outcomes. Thus, the prudent use of climate forecasts could mitigate adverse impacts and lead instead to increased beneficial impacts, which could transform years of ENSO extremes into the least costly to life and property.
27
An, Soon-Il, William W. Hsieh, and Fei-Fei Jin. "A Nonlinear Analysis of the ENSO Cycle and Its Interdecadal Changes*." Journal of Climate 18, no. 16 (August 15, 2005): 3229–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3466.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA), via a neural network approach, was applied to thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific. While the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies had been nonlinearly mapped by the NLPCA mode 1 onto an open curve in the data space, the thermocline anomalies were mapped to a closed curve, suggesting that ENSO is a cyclic phenomenon. The NLPCA mode 1 of the thermocline anomalies reveals the nonlinear evolution of the ENSO cycle with much asymmetry for the different phases: The weak heat accumulation in the whole equatorial Pacific is followed by the strong El Niño, and the subsequent strong drain of equatorial heat content toward the off-equatorial region precedes a weak La Niña. This asymmetric ENSO evolution implies that the nonlinear instability enhances the growth of El Niño, but dwarfs the growth of La Niña. The nonlinear ENSO cycle was found to have changed since the late 1970s. For the pre-1980s the ENSO cycle associated with the thermocline is less asymmetrical than that during the post-1980s, indicating that the nonlinearity of the ENSO cycle has become stronger since the late 1970s.
28
Herbert, Jonathan M., and Richard W. Dixon. "Is the ENSO Phenomenon Changing as a Result of Global Warming?" Physical Geography 23, no. 3 (January 2002): 196–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.2747/0272-3646.23.3.196.
Full text
29
Utami, T. I., T. Handayani, and Kuswantoro. "Exposure of dryland Farming to the ENSO Phenomenon in Kebumen District." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 303 (August 2, 2019): 012024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/303/1/012024.
Full text
30
Nóia Júnior, R. S., F. Schwerz, J. L. Safanelli, J. C. Rodrigues, and P. C. Sentelhas. "Eucalyptus rust climatic risk as affected by topography and ENSO phenomenon." Australasian Plant Pathology 48, no. 2 (November 28, 2018): 131–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13313-018-0608-2.
Full text
31
Gaucherel, Cédric. "A study of the possible extended influence of the ENSO phenomenon." Comptes Rendus Geoscience 336, no. 3 (March 2004): 175–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2003.10.025.
Full text
32
Okumura, Yuko, and Shang-Ping Xie. "Some Overlooked Features of Tropical Atlantic Climate Leading to a New Niño-Like Phenomenon*." Journal of Climate 19, no. 22 (November 15, 2006): 5859–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3928.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The Atlantic Niño, an equatorial zonal mode akin to the Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is phase-locked to boreal summer when the equatorial easterly winds intensify and the thermocline shoals in the Gulf of Guinea. A suite of satellite and in situ observations reveals a new mode of tropical Atlantic variability that displays many characteristics of the zonal mode but instead peaks in November–December (ND). This new mode is found to be statistically independent from both the Atlantic Niño in the preceding summer and the Pacific ENSO. The origin of this ND zonal mode lies in an overlooked aspect of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial Atlantic. In November the equatorial easterly winds intensify for the second time, increasing upwelling and lifting the thermocline in the Gulf of Guinea. An analysis of high-resolution climatological data shows that these dynamical changes induce a noticeable SST cooling in the central equatorial Atlantic. The shoaling thermocline and increased upwelling enhance the SST sensitivity to surface wind changes, reinvigorating equatorial ocean–atmosphere interaction. The resultant ocean–atmospheric anomalies are organized into patterns that give rise to positive mutual feedback as Bjerknes envisioned for the Pacific ENSO. This ND zonal mode significantly affects interannual rainfall variability in coastal Congo–Angola during its early rainy season. It tends to further evolve into a meridional mode in the following March–April, affecting precipitation in northeast Brazil. Thus it offers potential predictability for climate over the Atlantic sector in early boreal winter, a season for which local ocean–atmosphere variability was otherwise poorly understood.
33
Räsänen, T. A., V. Lindgren, J. H. A. Guillaume, B. M. Buckley, and M. Kummu. "On the spatial and temporal variability of ENSO precipitation and drought teleconnection in mainland Southeast Asia." Climate of the Past Discussions 11, no. 6 (November 10, 2015): 5307–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-5307-2015.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. The variability in the hydroclimate over mainland Southeast Asia is strongly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which has been linked to severe drought and floods that profoundly influence human societies and ecosystems alike. However, the spatial characteristics and long-term stationarity of ENSO's influence in the region are not well understood. We thus aim to analyse seasonal evolution and spatial variations in the effect of ENSO on precipitation over the period of 1980–2013, and long-term variation in the ENSO-teleconnection using tree-ring derived Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) that span from 1650–2004. We found that the majority of the study area is under the influence of ENSO, which has affected the region's hydroclimate over the majority (96 %) of the 355 year study period. Our results further indicate that there is a pattern of seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies during ENSO. However, considerable variability in the ENSO's influence is revealed: the strength of ENSO's influence was found to vary in time and space, and the different ENSO events resulted in varying precipitation anomalies. Additional research is needed to investigate how this variation in ENSO teleconnection is influenced by other factors, such as the properties of the ENSO events and other ocean and atmospheric phenomena. In general, the high variability we found in ENSO teleconnection combined with limitations of current knowledge, suggests that the adaptation to extremes in hydroclimate in mainland Southeast Asia needs to go beyond "predict-and-control" and recognise both uncertainty and complexity as fundamental principles.
34
Glantz, Michael H., Lino Naranjo-Diaz, Qian Ye, and Gregory E. Pierce. "Mainstreaming the Full ENSO: Linking Present Weather and Future Climate." International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 13, no. 6 (December 2022): 829–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13753-022-00459-6.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractIn this article we propose that all countries that are striving to become a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) would benefit greatly from including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related research findings into their decision-making processes, not only when an El Niño or a La Niña forecast has been issued quasi-periodically. For an aspiring WRN, to benefit from ENSO information, such as disruptive or beneficial changes that could be foreseeably expected to occur in seasonal flow and in sub-seasonal hydrometeorological anomalies, requires its continuous mainstreaming about the status of the ENSO process into a WRN’s decision-making activities. The ENSO process provides a bridge between sub-seasonal weather anomalies and a sub-decadal climate phenomenon as well as a bridge between coping with weather extremes today and preparing for climate change-related hydrometeorological hazards in the future. ENSO extremes every few years provide a chance to evaluate a nation’s strategic and tactical responses to hydrometeorological hazard forecasts and disasters. Each successive ENSO extreme and its Neutral phase tests previously designed best practices. Involvement of today’s youth and young professionals on climate, water, and weather issues has been increasing and will do so in coming decades. Shifting awareness and attention to ENSO and away from ENSO extremes is crucial. The heightened urgency for understanding the full ENSO “cycle” especially by youth and young professionals today is because they will soon be in professional positions that enable them to advise decision makers about climate policy issues. Their understanding of the ENSO cycle is critically needed, as global warming is expected to continue to increase for the rest of the twenty-first century.
35
Russo, Mark, David Changnon, Mike Podolak, Hugh Freestrom, and Jon B. Davis. "Using Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies to Forecast Seasonal Energy Demand in Four U.S. Regions: An Applied Climate Research Experience for Undergraduate Meteorology Students." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, no. 6 (June 1, 1999): 1139–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-80.6.1139.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon explains some of the interannual climate variability in many tropical and midlatitude regions. It is important in developing more accurate seasonal climate forecasts and thus in aiding long-range weather-sensitive decision making in various sectors. The degree to which ENSO information could forecast one of three classes of seasonal cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) was examined using 1) the magnitude of the ENSO event during a given season, 2) the preseason rate of change of sea surface temperature (SSTs) (December–May for summers and June–October for winters), and 3) the effects of strong winter ENSO events on future seasons. All three ENSO-related indices were based on monthly equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region. Regional probabilities of each HDD/CDD category (above, average, and below) were determined for each ENSO predictive index. The highest probability of experiencing an HDD/CDD anomaly occurs with strong preseason SST trends. When presummer SST cooling occurs, the northeast and midcontinent experience above-average CDD (80% and 75%, respectively). Other interesting relationships were found between strong winter ENSO events and ensuing HDD/CDD anomalies. These results suggest that utility-based decision makers who can utilize enhanced climate information may reap benefits during particular years by integrating the ENSO information into their models. This study was part of a special student training experiment conducted at Northern Illinois University.
36
Lau, Ngar-Cheung. "2015 Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture: Model Diagnosis of El Niño Teleconnections to the Global Atmosphere–Ocean System." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97, no. 6 (June 1, 2016): 981–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-15-00220.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is one of the most prominent modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability on interannual and interdecadal time scales. The essential ENSO signals originate from the tropical Pacific (TP). However, the impacts of ENSO are felt in many other parts of the world. Major ENSO events are accompanied by notable changes in the extratropical atmospheric circulation in both hemispheres, various monsoon systems located beyond the TP, global air temperature and precipitation patterns, and the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution throughout the World Ocean. During the past several decades, this author has participated in a sustained effort to study the processes contributing to these “teleconnections” between ENSO forcing in the TP and variations in the atmosphere–ocean system elsewhere. These investigations are based on a large suite of experiments with several generations of general circulation models (GCMs) at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). These experiments are specifically designed to reveal various facets of the teleconnections with ENSO. In this lecture, a summary is given of the principal findings of this series of model studies. An account is given of the train of thought underpinning the sequence of experiments described herein, so as to illustrate how certain experimental setups have been motivated by the problem or hypothesis at hand.
37
An, Soon-Il, Jong-Seong Kug, Axel Timmermann, In-Sik Kang, and Oliver Timm. "The Influence of ENSO on the Generation of Decadal Variability in the North Pacific*." Journal of Climate 20, no. 4 (February 15, 2007): 667–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4017.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract This diagnostic study explores the generation of decadal variability in the North Pacific resulting from the asymmetry of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the nonlinearity of the atmospheric tropical–extratropical teleconnection. Nonlinear regression analysis of the North Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric fields with respect to the ENSO index reveals that the main teleconnection centers shift between El Niño and La Niña years. This asymmetry in the ENSO response, together with the skewed probabilistic distribution of ENSO itself, may contribute to the generation of the long-term decadal variability of sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific. It is argued that this hypothesis may explain the significant variance of the observed Pacific decadal oscillation in the extratropics.
38
Hensawang, Saruda, Sittisak Injan, Pariwate Varnakovida, and Usa Humphries. "Predicting Rice Production in Central Thailand Using the WOFOST Model with ENSO Impact." Mathematical and Computational Applications 26, no. 4 (October 20, 2021): 72. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/mca26040072.
Full textAbstract:
The World Food Studies Simulation Model (WOFOST) model is a daily crop growth and yield forecast model with interactions with the environment, including soil, agricultural management, and especially climate conditions. An El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon directly affected climate change and indirectly affected the rice yield in Thailand. This study aims to simulate rice production in central Thailand using the WOFOST model and to find the relationship between rice yield and ENSO. The meteorological data and information on rice yields of Suphan Buri 1 variety from 2011 to 2018 in central Thailand were used to study the rice yields. The study of rice yield found that the WOFOST model was able to simulate rice yield with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 752 kg ha−1, with approximately 16% discrepancy. The WOFOST model was able to simulate the growth of Suphan Buri 1 rice, with an average discrepancy of 16.205%, and Suphan Buri province had the least discrepancy at 6.99%. Most rice yield simulations in the central region were overestimated (except Suphan Buri) because the model did not cover crop damage factors such as rice disease or insect damage. The WOFOST model had good relative accuracy and could respond to estimates of rice yields. When an El Niño phenomenon occurs at Niño 3.4, it results in lower-than-normal yields of Suphan Buri 1 rice in the next 8 months. On the other hand, when a La Niña phenomenon occurs at Niño 3.4, Suphan Buri 1 rice yields are higher than normal in the next 8 months. An analysis of the rice yield data confirms the significant impact of ENSO on rice yields in Thailand. This study shows that climate change leads to impacts on rice production, especially during ENSO years.
39
Anjas Swara, I. Gede Mita, I. Wayan Gede Astawa Karang, and Gede Surya Indrawan. "Analisis Pola Sebaran Area Upwelling di Selatan Indonesia Menggunakan Citra Modis Level 2." Journal of Marine Research and Technology 4, no. 1 (February 28, 2021): 56. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/jmrt.2021.v04.i01.p09.
Full textAbstract:
This research aimed to find out the pattern of spasio-temporal upwelling and its relation with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the southern waters of Java to the East Nusa Tenggara. Two indicators namely sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorofil-a data obtained from oceancolor database were used as an indicator of upwelling occurences. The overlay technique and correlation analyses were used to describe the relationship between upwelling and ENSO. The results showed the phenomenon of upwelling occurred along southern Java and East Nusa Tenggara. The appearance of upwelling occurred in the South Easth Monsoon until transition season which began in June and ended in November. The pattern of upwelling area for 17 years varies each season, where for the South Easth Monsoon in June it gained 6986 km2, in July 78294 km2, and in August 254212 km2. As for transition season II in September 166767 km2, in October 72033 km2, and November 1949 km2. The results also showed that upwelling intensity was influenced by ENSO indicated by correlation values that matched the correlation value between SST - ENSO was -0.78 and chlorophyll-a-ENSO was 0.98.
40
Twine, Tracy E., Christopher J. Kucharik, and Jonathan A. Foley. "Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the Climate, Water Balance, and Streamflow of the Mississippi River Basin." Journal of Climate 18, no. 22 (November 15, 2005): 4840–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3566.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Climatic and hydrologic observations and results from a terrestrial ecosystem model coupled to a regional-scale river-routing algorithm are used to document the associations between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and anomalies in climate, surface water balance, and river hydrology within the Mississippi River basin. While no ENSO signal is found in streamflow at the outlet of the basin in Vicksburg, Mississippi, significant anomalies in all water balance components are found in certain regions within the basin. ENSO is mainly associated with positive winter temperature anomalies, but hydrologic patterns vary with season, location, and ENSO phase. El Niño precipitation anomalies tend to affect evapotranspiration (ET) in the western half of the basin and runoff in the eastern half. La Niña events are associated with ET anomalies in the central portion of the basin and runoff anomalies in the southern and eastern portions of the basin. Both ENSO phases are associated with decreased snow depth. Anomalous soil moisture patterns occur at seasonal time scales and filter noisier spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies into coherent patterns with larger field significance; however, for all water budget components, there is a large amount of variability in response within a particular ENSO phase. With anomalies that are up to 4 times those of a typical event, it is clear that improved predictability of the onset and strength of an upcoming ENSO event is important for both water resource management and disaster mitigation.
41
Stuecker, Malte F., Fei-Fei Jin, and Axel Timmermann. "El Niño−Southern Oscillation frequency cascade." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 44 (October 19, 2015): 13490–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1508622112.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. Here we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.
42
Tac, Vu Van. "Variability of sea surface chlorophyll_a concentration in the South Vietnam coastal waters related to enso phenomenon." VIETNAM JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES 42, no. 1 (January 15, 2020): 67–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.15625/0866-7187/42/1/14759.
Full textAbstract:
This paper focuses on analyzing the monthly averaged sea surface chlorophyll_a concentration data for 16 years (Jul. 2002 ÷ Sep. 2018), a remote sensing data product of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US NASA), the analyzed results have shown that each occurrence of ENSO phenomenon greatly affects the fluctuation of chlorophyll_a concentration in the South Vietnam‘s coastal waters (SVNC). The monthly averaged chlorophyll_a concentration varies from 0.5 [mg/m3] to 1.1 [mg/m3] (equivalent to 22.4% ÷ 49.3%), while the monthly averaged fluctuation of chlorophyll_a concentration between months is only 0.22 [mg/m3] (equivalent to 9.88%). These fluctuations have a great impact on nutritional resources as well as water quality because chlorophyll_a is a pigment in plankton, which is a criterion to assess the "rich or poor" of nutrition source in seawater. The results of this study are considered as a "small piece" in the overall picture of the impact of ENSO phenomenon on global climate change.
43
Hao, Xin, and Shengping He. "Combined Effect of ENSO-Like and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation SSTAs on the Interannual Variability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon." Journal of Climate 30, no. 7 (April 2017): 2697–716. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0118.1.
Full textAbstract:
Using long-term observational data and numerical model experiments, this study found that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) affects the influence of ENSO-like sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs, which contain the variability of both El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation) on the interannual change in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). In the observations, the out-of-phase relationship between the variations in ENSO and the EAWM was significantly intensified when the AMO and ENSO-like SSTAs were in phase. Warmer-than-normal winters occurred across East Asia when the ENSO-like SSTAs and AMO were positively in phase, with a significantly weakened Siberian high and anomalous anticyclones over the western North Pacific. The opposite patterns occurred under negative in-phase conditions. In contrast, when the ENSO-like and AMO SSTAs were out of phase, the anomalies related to the EAWM tended to exhibit relatively weaker features. Numerical model experiments confirmed these observational results. When the models were perturbed with warm ENSO-like SSTAs and warm AMO SSTAs, the atmosphere showed a weakened Siberian high, strong anticyclonic anomalies over the Philippine Sea, a weakened East Asian trough, and dominant positive temperature anomalies over East Asia, implying a weaker EAWM. Reverse responses to negative in-phase temperature anomalies were observed. However, the atmospheric signals that responded to the out-of-phase conditions were less robust. This phenomenon may be attributed to the superposition of the interannual variability of the EAWM caused by ENSO-like SSTAs upon the influence of AMO on background Eurasian climate and the Walker circulation response to the heating source provided by the AMO, which induced changes in ENSO-like variability through the surface wind anomalies and modulated the anomalous anticyclone/cyclone over the Philippine Sea in warm–cold ENSO-like events.
44
Oderiz, Itxaso, Nobuhito Mori, Thomas Mortlock, Edgar Mendoza, and Rodolfo Silva. "TRANSITIONAL IMPACTS OF ENSO ON WAVE CLIMATE IN COASTAL REGIONS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36v (December 28, 2020): 22. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.waves.22.
Full textAbstract:
Amongst all the factors involved in coastal risk assessment, climate variability is key, due to its potential for modifying the coast, particularly through increased seasonal risk of erosion-flooding on the coast (Toimil et al. 2020; Wahl and Plant 2015). The principal driver of interannual variability of the wave climate around the world is El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Many researches have focused on the analysis of this phenomenon globally ( Stopa and Cheung 2014), its impacts on regional wave climate (Barnard et al. 2015, 2017; Oderiz et al. 2020; Reguero, Mendez, and Losada 2013) and their local coastal effects ( Mortlock and Goodwin 2016). This interest in ENSO impacts in wave climate is motivated by its capacity to cause coastal erosion (Barnard et al. 2015). Particularly, the temporal and spatial transition of ENSO is nowadays a current issue (Ha et al. 2012). On the worlds coasts, the ENSO impacts delay is not yet fully understood, nor integrated into engineering practices.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/DZbOYztPYW0
45
Liu, Zhiqing, and Jianjun Xu. "Increase in the Intensity of Air–Sea Coupling in the Key ENSO Region during 1955–2020." Atmosphere 13, no. 12 (December 1, 2022): 2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122025.
Full textAbstract:
The El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon of air–sea coupling in the tropical Pacific, has strong response to global climate change. In this study, the primary region where ENSO occurred during the period 1955–2020 was selected as the key ENSO region, and the changes in air–sea coupling in this region were explored. The New Southern Oscillation Index (NSOI), modified from the previous Southern Oscillation Index, represents atmospheric changes, and the Niño-3.4 index represents oceanic changes. The absolute value of the running correlation coefficient between the Niño-3.4 index and NSOI in the 121-month time window was defined as the Intensity of Air–Sea Coupling (IASC) in the key ENSO region. The results showed that the IASC has significantly increased, with a confidence level of 95%, during the period 1955–2020, and the range where the correlation coefficient between the Niño-3.4 index and the sea level pressure anomaly over the key ENSO region was greater than 0.6 has evidently expanded in the context of global warming, which corresponded to the increase in IASC. Moreover, the coupling positions of sea surface temperature and wind anomalies changed, tending to the east of the equatorial Pacific during 1977–1998, and to the west during 1999–2020.
46
Ibrahim, Shuhaina, Nor Shahida Sahlan, and Mandeep Singh Jit Singh. "Study on Precipitation and Its Relation to Pressure and Temperature Over Malaysia During The ENSO Phenomenon." Jurnal Kejuruteraan 28, no. 1 (December 28, 2016): 53–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jkukm-2016-28-06.
Full text
47
Lingjiang, Tao, and Duan Wansuo. "Using a Nonlinear Forcing Singular Vector Approach to Reduce Model Error Effects in ENSO Forecasting." Weather and Forecasting 34, no. 5 (September 11, 2019): 1321–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0050.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)-based assimilation is adopted to determine the model tendency errors that represent the combined effect of different kinds of model errors; then, an NFSV-tendency error forecast model is formulated. This error forecast model is coupled with an intermediate complex model (ICM) and makes the ICM output closer to the observations; finally, an NFSV-ICM forecast model for ENSO is constructed. The competing aspect of the NFSV-ICM is to consider not only model errors but also the interaction between model errors and initial errors because of the mathematical nature of the NFSV-tendency errors. Based on the prediction experiments for tropical SSTAs during either the training period (1960–96; i.e., when the NFSV-ICM is formulated) or the cross-validation period (1997–2016), the NFSV-ICM is determined to have a much higher forecast skill in predicting ENSO that, specifically, extends the skillful predictions of ENSO from a lead time of 6 months in the original ICM to a lead time of 12 months. The higher skill of the NFSV-ICM is especially reflected in the predictions of SSTAs in the central and western Pacific. For the well-known spring predictability barrier (SPB) phenomenon that greatly limits ENSO forecasting skill, the NFSV-ICM also shows great abilities in suppressing its negative effect on ENSO predictions. Although the NFSV-ICM is presently only involved with the NFSV-related assimilation of SSTs, it has shown its usefulness in predicting ENSO. It is clear that the NFSV-based assimilation approach is effective in dealing with the effect of model errors on ENSO forecasts.
48
Deser, Clara, Adam S. Phillips, Robert A. Tomas, Yuko M. Okumura, Michael A. Alexander, Antonietta Capotondi, James D. Scott, Young-Oh Kwon, and Masamichi Ohba. "ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4." Journal of Climate 25, no. 8 (April 10, 2012): 2622–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00301.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract This study presents an overview of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and Pacific decadal variability (PDV) simulated in a multicentury preindustrial control integration of the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) at nominal 1° latitude–longitude resolution. Several aspects of ENSO are improved in CCSM4 compared to its predecessor CCSM3, including the lengthened period (3–6 yr), the larger range of amplitude and frequency of events, and the longer duration of La Niña compared to El Niño. However, the overall magnitude of ENSO in CCSM4 is overestimated by ~30%. The simulated ENSO exhibits characteristics consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator paradigm, including correspondence between the lengthened period and increased latitudinal width of the anomalous equatorial zonal wind stress. Global seasonal atmospheric teleconnections with accompanying impacts on precipitation and temperature are generally well simulated, although the wintertime deepening of the Aleutian low erroneously persists into spring. The vertical structure of the upper-ocean temperature response to ENSO in the north and south Pacific displays a realistic seasonal evolution, with notable asymmetries between warm and cold events. The model shows evidence of atmospheric circulation precursors over the North Pacific associated with the “seasonal footprinting mechanism,” similar to observations. Simulated PDV exhibits a significant spectral peak around 15 yr, with generally realistic spatial pattern and magnitude. However, PDV linkages between the tropics and extratropics are weaker than observed.
49
Chand, Savin S., and Kevin J. E. Walsh. "Influence of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Fiji Region." Journal of Climate 24, no. 15 (August 1, 2011): 4096–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4178.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract This study examines the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga (FST) region. The variation in TC intensity is inferred from the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is constructed from the 6-hourly Joint Typhoon Warning Center best-track data for the period 1985–2006. Overall, results suggest that ACE in the FST region is considerably influenced by the ENSO signal. A substantial contribution to this ENSO signal in ACE comes from the region equatorward of 15°S where TC numbers, lifetime, and intensity all play a significant role. However, the ACE–ENSO relationship weakens substantially poleward of 15°S where large-scale environmental variables affecting TC intensity are found to be less favorable during El Niño years than during La Niña years; in the region equatorward of 15°S, the reverse is true. Therefore, TCs entering this region poleward of 15°S are able to sustain their intensity for a longer period of time during La Niña years as opposed to TCs entering the region during El Niño years, when they decay more rapidly.
50
Su, Hui, J. David Neelin, and Joyce E. Meyerson. "Mechanisms for Lagged Atmospheric Response to ENSO SST Forcing*." Journal of Climate 18, no. 20 (October 15, 2005): 4195–215. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3514.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The mechanism and sensitivity of the lagged response of tropical tropospheric temperature to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST forcing are examined using the Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model (QTCM) coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean model, along with a simple analytical model. It is found that the lag and amplitude of tropospheric temperature response depend on mixed layer depth (MLD), ENSO SST forcing period, areal fraction of the mixed layer ocean, and the strength of Tropics to midlatitude transports. The phase lag is not a monotonic function of mixed layer depth. It maximizes at moderate MLD and, thus, is not very sensitive to MLD in the realistic range. The phase lag asymptotes to values determined by free-atmospheric time scales, between 1 and 2 months, for small or large values of MLD. The amplitude of the tropospheric temperature response decreases with increasing MLD. The phase lag and amplitude of tropospheric temperature both increase as a specified ENSO SST forcing period increases and they appear to be rather insensitive to the seasonal cycle of SST. On the other hand, the phase lag and amplitude of mixed layer ocean SST change monotonically with MLD and ENSO forcing period, with a deeper mixed layer producing longer lag and smaller amplitude of SST anomalies. Longer ENSO SST forcing periods correspond to longer lag and larger amplitude of mixed layer ocean SST anomalies. While the ENSO region convective heating (precipitation) anomalies are closely tied to SST anomalies, the tropical mean precipitation seems best viewed as a complex by-product of the response rather than as a driver. One useful parameter determining the lag of tropospheric temperature to ENSO SST is the freedecay time scale of the coupled system. This parameter combines the effects of surface flux exchanges, heat loss at the top of the atmosphere and from the Tropics to midlatitudes, and finite ocean heat capacity. It is indicative of the extent to which the lagged response of tropical tropospheric temperature to ENSO SST is a coupled phenomenon. Overall, the contribution of coupling to SST outside the ENSO region substantially increases the amplitude and lag of the tropospheric temperature response to ENSO.