Journal articles on the topic 'Engle-Granger cointegration test'
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1
Cernohorska, Libena. "The relationship between M3 and consumer price index in the Czech Republic." New Trends and Issues Proceedings on Humanities and Social Sciences 4, no. 10 (January 12, 2018): 226–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/prosoc.v4i10.3081.
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This paper aimed at analysing the influence of monetary aggregate M3 on consumer price index (CPI) in the Czech Republic. Cointegrating this selected indicator M3 is demonstrated in relation to the development of CPI using the Engle – Granger cointegration test. These tests are applied to selected statistical data from the years 2003 to 2016. After using the Akaike criteria for all-time series, we analysed a unit root using the Dickey–Fuller test. If the time series are non-stacionary, testing is then continued with the Engle–Granger test to detect cointegration relations. Based on these tests, it is found that at a significance level of 0.05, a cointegration relationship between M3 and CPI in the Czech Republic does not exist. Conclusions resulting from the verification of the hypotheses are supported with graphical visualisation of data from which it is apparent that these hypotheses can be rejected. Keywords: M3; Czech Republic ; CPI ; Akaike criteria
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Cernohorska, Libena. "The relationship between M3 and consumer price index in the Czech Republic." New Trends and Issues Proceedings on Humanities and Social Sciences 4, no. 10 (January 12, 2018): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/prosoc.v4i10.3059.
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The aim of this paper is to analyse the influence of monetary aggregate M3 on consumer price index (CPI) in the Czech Republic. Co-integration of this selected indicator M3 is demonstrated in relation to the development of CPI using the Engle – Granger co-integration test. These tests are applied to selected statistical data from 2003 to 2016. First step is to determine the optimum delay using Akaike criteria for all-time series analysed. Then the presence of a unit root is analysed using the Dickey–Fuller test. Based on the test results, time series is excluded, which appears to be stationary. If the conditions are met, testing then continued with the Engle–Granger test to detect cointegration relations, which would determine a longterm relationship between selected variables. Based on these tests, it is found that at a significance level of 0.05 doesn’t exist cointegration relationship between M3 and CPI in the Czech Republic. Conclusions resulting from the verification of the hypotheses are supported with graphical visualisation of data from which it is apparent that these hypotheses can be rejected. Keywords: Akaike crieteria, Dickey–Fuller test, Engle–Granger cointegration test, CPI, M3.
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Rana, Surya Bahadur. "Cointegration between Stock Market and Economic Growth: Evidence From Nepal." Butwal Campus Journal 4, no. 1-2 (December 31, 2021): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/bcj.v4i1-2.44980.
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This paper examines the linkage between stock market development and economic growth in the context of Nepal using 33 annual observations from Mid-July 1988 to 2020 on economic and financial time series of real GDP, market capitalization and annual turnover. The study employs Engle-Granger(1987) and Johansen’s (1988) cointegration test to examine the cointegration between economic growth proxied by log of real GDP and stock market development indicators, namely stock market size and liquidity, proxied by log of market capitalization and log of annual turnover, respectively. The results of cointegration show that both stock market size and liquidity can predict economic growth in Nepal. The results of cointegration test from both Engle-Granger procedures and Johansen’s method suggests that economic growth is cointegrated with both stock market size and stock market liquidity, and hence they are interrelated with each other in the long run. The basic implication of study finding is that both stock market size and liquidity significantly predict the economic growth in Nepal over the sample period and hence there is a need for promoting secondary market trading both in terms of size and liquidity.
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Dursun, Erdal. "The Nexus among Civil Aviation, Energy Performance Efficiency and GDP in terms of Ecological Footprint: Evidence from France and Finland." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12, no. 5 (September 27, 2022): 243–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13399.
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The major goal of this research paper is to determine the long-run linkage among variables and the impact of civil aviation, energy productivity (efficiency), economic growth (GDP), on ecological footprint through conducting the multivariate regression method, Phillips‑Ouliaris and Engle‑Granger, Jarque – Bera Normality, and Cusum tests from 1970 to 2020. According to results of multivariate regression method, civil aviation, energy efficiency, and economic growth affect the ecological footprint from 1970 to 2020 in France which is coincide with Phillips‑Ouliaris and Engle‑Granger tests. On the contrary, there is no effect of independent variables on dependent variable (ecological footprint) in Finland which is consistent with Phillips‑Ouliaris and Engle‑Granger tests. In this respect, The long-run relation of the model is verified by the cointegration test of Engle-Granger and Phillips-Ouliaris for France. However, there is no long-run co-integration among variables for Finland from 1970-2020. To sum up, empirical results of France is verified EKC hypothesis. However, EKC hypothesis is not verified for Finland.
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Tanjung, Ahmad Albar, and Annisa Anggreini Siswanto. "ANALISIS KURVA PHILLIPS DI INDONESIA." Media Ekonomi 30, no. 1 (September 5, 2022): 71–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.25105/me.v30i1.10066.
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This research aims to investigate whether the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Indonesia is by the Phillips curve theory. This research is quantitative. The estimation method used is ECM Two-Step Engle-Granger. in the long term, it is estimated using Ordinary Least Square (OLS), while in the short term it is estimated using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The cointegration test uses the Engle-Granger cointegration test. The data used are secondary level data, wage rate data as a proxy for inflation, and unemployment rates from 1991-2020 obtained from the world bank. The findings of this study are that in the short term, the unemployment rate is negatively related to inflation but is not significant, meaning that a trade-off between the unemployment rate and inflation occurs but the effect is not significant. In other words, in Indonesia, the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation follows the Phillips Curve theory, but in the long run, there is a positive relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation but it is not significant.
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Karki, Dipendra. "The Dynamic Relationship between Tourism and Economy: Evidence from Nepal." Journal of Business and Management 5 (December 1, 2018): 16–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jbm.v5i0.27384.
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The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Nepalese economic growth. I use a trivariate model of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), international tourist arrivals and real effective exchange rate to investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between tourism and economic growth. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller ( ADF) test is used to determine the order of integration of the series, and I employ the Engle- Granger cointegration procedure to test for the presence of long-run relationship. By using annual macroeconomic data for Nepal for the period of 1962-2011, results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth.
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Buhaerah, Pihri. "Pembangunan Keuangan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Studi Kasus Indonesia." Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan 1, no. 2 (August 31, 2017): 165–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.31685/kek.v1i2.203.
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AbstractThis paper examines empirically the linkage of financial development and economic growth in Indonesia by using time series analysis for the period of 2001Q4-2016Q2. To achieve the objective of this study, data was collected from secondary sources and employed various time series econometric procedures such as Dickey Fuller-Generalized Least Square (DF-GLS) test, Granger Causality test, Engle Granger-Augmented Dickey Fuller (EG-ADF) cointegration test, and Error-Correction Method (ECM). The cointegration test shows that there is a long run relationship cointegrated between selected financial development indicators and economic growth. Surprisingly, in the short run, total credit to the private non-financial sector has a negative effect on economic growth in Indonesia. Furthermore,Granger causality test based on error-correction model indicates that only money market rate, stock prices, and total credit to households have a causal relationship with economic growth.  AbstrakMakalah ini membahas secara empiris pertautan antara pembangunan keuangan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan analisis runtun waktu untuk periode 2001Q4-2016Q2. Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian ini, data yang dikumpulkan berasal dari dari  beragam sumber data  sekunder dan melibatkan berbagai prosedur ekonometrika runtun waktu seperti Dickey Fuller-Generalized Least Square (DF-GLS), uji Kausalitas Granger, uji kointegrasi Engle Granger-Augmented Dickey Fuller (EG-ADF), dan error-Correction Method (ECM). Hasil uji kointegrasi menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara indikator pembangunan keuangan yang terpilih dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Yang mengejutkan, dalam jangka pendek, total kredit ke sektor swasta non-keuangan memiliki efek negatif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Selanjutnya, uji kausalitas Granger berdasarkan model koreksi kesalahan menunjukkan bahwa hanya suku bunga pasar uang, harga saham, dan jumlah kredit untuk rumah tangga yang memiliki hubungan kausalitas dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi.
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Abubakar, Hussaini, M. Usman, J. Y. Falgore, S. S. Sani, I. Abubakar, and K. Adamu. "AN INVESTIGATION OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE IN NIGERIA, USING ENGLE COINTEGRATION APPROACH." FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES 5, no. 4 (January 28, 2022): 222–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2021-0504-695.
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This paper investigated the direction of causal relation between Government Revenue and Expenditure in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020. To validate the existence of long-run and short-run relationships and short-run dynamics of the variables, an Engle Cointegration was employed to test for cointegration and estimate error correction. The hypotheses were examined using the Engle-Granger approach to cointegration. The models' empirical results show that there is bidirectional causality between government revenue and expenditures in Nigeria. This indicates that the government's revenue and expenditure decisions are decided jointly by the country's fiscal authorities. The findings point to the existence of a revenue-to-expenditure feedback system in Nigeria. In other words, both revenue and expenditure levels, affect each other in the Nigerian budgeting process. Therefore, greater tax levels are driven by higher spending levels, and vice versa. This paper recommends that Nigerian fiscal authorities with budget deficits should simultaneously increase revenues and cut expenditure in order to control their deficits
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Yardimcioglu, Mahmut, and Ahmet Ilhan. "A Study Regarding the Advances of Political Stability and Economic Development Experienced in Turkey during the Periods of 1980-2015." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 10 (September 23, 2016): 167. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n10p167.
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In this study, the causality relationship between the political stability and gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey with the annual data for the period 1980-2015 has been analyzed. The cointegration and Engle-Granger causality tests have been applied in the study. As the Series were cointegrated, the Error Correction Method has been used in order to carry out the causality test. According to the analysis results, the cointegration test suggests the presence of a long-term relationship between political stability and gross domestic product (GDP). As for the Error Correction Model, it reveals the presence of one-way causal relationship from political stability to GDP.
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Myszczyszyn, Janusz. "Cointegration analysis between economic growth and the number of granted patents based on the example of the German economy." Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu 64, no. 9 (2020): 87–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.15611/pn.2020.9.07.
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The main purpose of the article was to use the Granger cointegration test to confirm the long-term relationship between the level of economic growth in Germany and the number of granted patents, including the so-called economically valuable patents. The empirical analysis was based on available statistical data on the level of economic growth (seven time series) and the number of patents received and valuable patents in the period 1872-1913. In addition to estimates of Pearson’s correlation coefficients, tests for checking the unit root: ADF and KPSS, were used. They indicated that all the analysed time series are integrated in the first stage I(1), which enabled the use of the Engle-Granger cointegration test. The obtained research results did not confirm the long-term correlation between the level of economic growth in Germany and the number of granted patents, including the so-called economically valuable patents.
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Myszczyszyn, Janusz. "Cointegration analysis between economic growth and the number of granted patents based on the example of the German economy." Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu 64, no. 9 (2020): 87–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.15611/pn.2020.9.07.
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The main purpose of the article was to use the Granger cointegration test to confirm the long-term relationship between the level of economic growth in Germany and the number of granted patents, including the so-called economically valuable patents. The empirical analysis was based on available statistical data on the level of economic growth (seven time series) and the number of patents received and valuable patents in the period 1872-1913. In addition to estimates of Pearson’s correlation coefficients, tests for checking the unit root: ADF and KPSS, were used. They indicated that all the analysed time series are integrated in the first stage I(1), which enabled the use of the Engle-Granger cointegration test. The obtained research results did not confirm the long-term correlation between the level of economic growth in Germany and the number of granted patents, including the so-called economically valuable patents.
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Qazi, Laila Taskeen, Atta Ur Rahman ., and Saleem Gul. "Which Pairs of Stocks should we Trade? Selection of Pairs for Statistical Arbitrage and Pairs Trading in Karachi Stock Exchange." Pakistan Development Review 54, no. 3 (September 1, 2015): 215–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v54i3pp.215-244.
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Pairs Trading refers to a statistical arbitrage approach devised to take advantage from short term fluctuations simultaneously depicted by two stocks from long run equilibrium position. In this study a technique has been designed for the selection of pairs for pairs trading strategy. Engle-Granger 2-step Cointegration approach has been applied for identifying the trading pairs. The data employed in this study comprised of daily stock prices of Commercial Banks and Financial Services Sector. Restricted pairs have been formed out of highly liquid log share price series of 22 Commercial Banks and 19 Financial Services companies listed on Karachi Stock Exchange. Sample time period extended from November 2, 2009 to June 28, 2013 having total 911 observations for each share prices series incorporated in the study. Out of 231 pairs of commercial banks 25 were found cointegrated whereas 40 cointegrated pairs were identified among 156 pairs formed in Financial Services Sector. Furthermore a Cointegration relationship was estimated by regressing one stock price series on another, whereas the order of regression is accessed through Granger Causality Test. The mean reverting residual of Cointegration regression is modeled through the Vector Error Correction Model in order to assess the speed of adjustment coefficient for the statistical arbitrage opportunity. The findings of the study depict that the cointegrated stocks can be combined linearly in a long/short portfolio having stationary dynamics. Although for the given strategy profitability has not been assessed in this study yet the VECM results for residual series show significant deviations around the mean which identify the statistical arbitrage opportunity and ensure profitability of the pairs trading strategy. JEL classifications: C32, C53, G17 Keywords: Pairs Trading, Statistical Arbitrage, Engle-Granger 2-step Cointegration Approach, VECM.
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AFZAL, MOHAMMAD. "LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES." Singapore Economic Review 53, no. 02 (August 2008): 261–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590808002938.
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We used Engle–Granger cointegration test to investigate and compare the long-run performance of imports and exports in Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Korea and Thailand. Graphical analysis demonstrates an inherent tendency of imports and exports to move together in the long run. Cointegration and error correction results support the graphical analysis that these countries do not violate on the average the international budget constraint, and trade disequilibrium is a short-run phenomenon that is sustainable in the long run. Macroeconomic policies in the sample countries have been adequately effective to affect long-run equilibrium between imports and exports. The international events had differential impact on each country of our sample.
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de Boef, Suzanna, and Jim Granato. "Testing for Cointegrating Relationships with Near-Integrated Data." Political Analysis 8, no. 1 (1999): 99–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029807.
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Testing theories about political change requires analysts to make assumptions about the memory of their time series. Applied analyses are often based on inferences that time series are integrated and cointegrated. Typically analyses rest on Dickey—Fuller pretests for unit roots and a test for cointegration based on the Engle—Granger two-step method. We argue that this approach is not a good one and use Monte Carlo analysis to show that these tests can lead analysts to conclude falsely that the data are cointegrated (or nearly cointegrated) when the data are near-integrated and not cointegrating. Further, analysts are likely to conclude falsely that the relationship is not cointegrated when it is. We show how inferences are highly sensitive to sample size and the signal-to-noise ratio in the data. We suggest three things. First, analysts should use the single equation error correction test for cointegrating relationships; second, caution is in order in all cases where near-integration is a reasonable alternative to unit roots; and third, analysts should drop the language of cointegration in many cases and adopt single-equation error correction models when the theory of error correction is relevant.
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Wang, Qun Wei, Cheng Ling Cai, and Dan Lu. "Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China: A Cointegration Analysis." Applied Mechanics and Materials 291-294 (February 2013): 1616–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.291-294.1616.
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This paper studies the relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure and Engle-Granger causality test in China over the period 1965-2011. The empirical results show that GDP, energy and carbon emissions have appeared to be cointegrated. Moreover, there exists unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth and carbon emissions to economic growth in short run. It has also been found that energy consumption and carbon emissions promote economic growth in long run. Some policy implications have been proposed finally.
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Prorok, Vesna, and Slađana Paunović. "COINTEGRATION BETWEEN STOCK MARKET INDICES AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES: EVIDENCE FROM TRANSITION COUNTRIES." ЗБОРНИК РАДОВА ЕКОНОМСКОГ ФАКУЛТЕТА У ИСТОЧНОМ САРАЈЕВУ 1, no. 10 (December 7, 2015): 35. http://dx.doi.org/10.7251/zrefis1510035p.
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This paper analyzes the interdependence between stock market indices and exchange rates in four transition countries: Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The analysis is based on monthly data for the nominal exchange stock market indices and nominal exchange rates over the period from March 2010 to March 2015. The main objective of this work is to determine whether the exchange rates had a significant impact on future trends in the capital markets and vice versa. Empirical analysis has shown that the series are stationary in the first differences, and using both Engle-Granger cointegration and Granger causality test it has been shown, as well, that there is neither long-run nor short-run relationship between these two variables. In other words, it means that prediction of movement of one variable cannot be based on past values of other variable
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Muhammad, Sagheer, Adnan Akhtar, and Nasir Sultan. "Shock Dependence and Volatility Transmission Between Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Evidence from Pakistan." Lahore Journal of Business 5, no. 1 (September 1, 2016): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/ljb.2016.v5.i1.a1.
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This paper investigates shock dependence and volatility transmission between the crude oil and equity markets, based on crude oil returns and stock index returns for the period 2 January 2009 to 27 January 2014. We employ the bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) model developed by Engle and Kroner (1995) as well as the Engle and Granger (1987) cointegration and unit root tests. These parameterization tools are more flexible and innovative than other specifications, which often give counter-intuitive results. The results of the cointegration test reject the notion of a long-run relationship between the crude oil market and stock market. The results of the BEKK-GARCH model suggest that shocks and volatility created in the oil market have a significant effect on the Pakistan Stock Exchange. They also reveal bidirectional shock persistence and a unidirectional volatility spillover between crude oil prices and Pakistani equity prices. These empirical findings can help predict price movements in each market efficiently. The empirical results are also important for policymakers involved in shock prevention and for portfolio managers seeking optimal portfolio allocation.
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TAYYAR, Ahmet Emrah. "FOREIGN DIRECT INVESMENT OUTFLOWS AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION: HIDDEN COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY." IEDSR Association 6, no. 11 (February 24, 2021): 165–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.46872/pj.235.
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The relationship between foreign direct investment, which is a type of cross-border and long-term investment, and environmental quality is a current issue that is heavily debated. Foreign direct invesments can ensure economic growth and development of countries, while also causing a change in environmental quality. In the research conducted, it is seen that changes in carbon dioxide emissions with foreign direct capital inflows are mainly investigated from the point of view of the host countries. However, foreign direct invesment outflows may have an impact on the environmental quality of the home country. Because foreign direct invesment outflows can enable the transfer of more environmentally friendly techonogies to the country and strengthen management skills. The impact of foreign direct investment outflows on the home country's environmental pollution is shaped by many factors (scale, technique, and composition effects). In addition to these effects, it is necessary to pay attention to the regional and sectoral distribution of capital outflows. The main aim of this study is to examine the links between Turkey's foreign direct invesment outflows and carbon dioxide emissions for the period 1990-2018. For this reason, a unit root test was applied to variables whose natural logarithm was taken. Tests showed that all series are stable of the same degree. Engle&Granger(1987) and Granger&Yoon(2002) tests were used to determine the cointegration relationship between variables. The crouching error correction model(CECM) was applied to determine the causality relationship. According to the results of the analysis; i) In terms of the Engle&Granger(1987) test, there was no long-term relationship between variables. ii) According to the Granger&Yoon(2002) test, it was determined that there is a bidirectional hidden cointegration relationship between the positive shocks of carbon dioxide emissions and negative shocks of foreign direct invesment outflows. iii) There is a bidirectional asymmetric causality relationship between the positive shocks of carbon dioxide emissions and the negative shocks of foreign direct invesment outflows. iv) It is observed that 1% negative shocks in foreign direct invesment outflows reduce positive shocks in carbon dioxide emissions by 0,26%. As a result, since negative situations in foreign direct invesment outflows have an effect on improving the quality of the environment, the environmental dimension should be taken into account in the policies to be made.
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Amfo-Antiri, George, and Edward Quansah. "Cointegration of Stock Prices and Domestic Portfolio Diversification Opportunities: Evidence from the Ghana Stock Exchange." Applied Economics and Finance 4, no. 5 (August 28, 2017): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v4i5.2475.
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This paper employed Engle-Granger test of cointegration and the Bound Test to explore potential domestic portfolio diversification opportunities that are available for individual investors, institutional and other portfolio managers from constructing domestic portfolios. Daily stock prices for the period 1st August, 2011 to July 29th, 2016 have been employed as well as monthly stock return from the Ghana Stock exchange. The result from the cointegration analysis indicated that most equity stocks listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange are not cointegrated with each other in the long run. In addition, majority of the stock returns are statistically insensitive to the GSE– Composite index during the period under consideration. The empirical evidence indicates that domestic investors can benefit from constructing portfolios that consist of equities from the financial sector and other non-financial sectors which are not cointegrated.
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Natsir, Khairina, Yusbardini Yusbardini, and Nurainun Bangun. "ANALISIS KAUSALITAS ANTARA IHSG, INDEKS DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH/US$." Jurnal Muara Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis 3, no. 2 (September 30, 2019): 229. http://dx.doi.org/10.24912/jmieb.v3i2.3398.
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi hubungan kausalitas antara IHSG, nilai tukar rupiah/US$ dan Indeks Global yang diwakili oleh Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average. Penelitian mengambil sampel nilai-nilai variabel yang diteliti dengan periode data bulanan dalam periode Juli 2005-Desember 2018. Alat analisis menggunakan uji Engle-Granger untuk menginvestigasi hubungan kausalitas. Hasil Uji kausalitas Granger memperlihatkan terdapat hubungan dua arah atau saling mempengaruhi antara IHSG dengan nilai rupiah/US$. Selain itu ditemukan pula bahwa pergerakan Indeks Dow Jones Industrial secara signifikan mempengaruhi kepada pergerakan IHSG dan nilai tukar rupiah/US$, tetapi sebaliknya pergerakan yang terjadi pada IHSG dan nilai tukar tidak mampu mempengaruhi gerakan indeks Dow Jones Industrial. Hasil Uji kointegrasi Johansen memperlihatkan bahwa semua variabel penelitian mempunyai hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang yang signifikan. This study aims to investigate the causality relationship between the CSPI, the exchange rate of rupiah / US $ and the Global Index represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The study sampled variable values studied with monthly data periods in the period July 2005-December 2018. The analysis tool uses the Engle-Granger test to investigate causality relationships. Granger causality test results show there is a two-way relationship or influence each other between the CSPI with the value of rupiah / US $. In addition it was also found that the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Index significantly affected the movement of the JCI and the exchange rate of the rupiah / US $, but conversely the movements that occurred on the JCI and the exchange rate were unable to influence the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial index. Johansen's cointegration test results show that all research variables have a significant long-term balance relationship.
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Tariq Islam, Qamarullah Bin. "Causal Analysis Between Liquidity and Profitability: Is There Any Difference Between Public and Private Commercial Banks in Bangladesh?" Journal of Banking and Financial Economics 2/2020, no. 14 (December 29, 2020): 38–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.7172/2353-6845.jbfe.2020.2.3.
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This paper analyzes the causal relationship between liquidity and profitability for public and private commercial banks in Bangladesh. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test of stationarity is carried out first. As they are found to be integrated of the same order, the Engle-Granger test of cointegration is applied. Finally, the Granger causality test is applied to check if there is any causal relationship between liquidity and profitability for public and private commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2019. Another aim of the paper is to see if there is any difference in the causal relationship between these two bank typologies. The results show that there is unidirectional causality from profitability to liquidity for public banks while no causal relationship is evident for private commercial banks in Bangladesh. The findings further confirm that different bank typologies behave differently in Bangladesh and hence policy makers should keep this in mind during policy formulation.
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U. J., Afangideh, Garbobiya T. S., Umar F. B., and Usman N. "The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Development: Evidence from Nigeria." International Journal of Economics and Finance 12, no. 2 (January 29, 2020): 56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v12n2p56.
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This paper examines the Impact of inflation on financial sector development in Nigeria using quarterly data from 2002-2017. Financial sector development is proxied using money supply as a share of GDP (M2/GDP).The Auto-Regressive Distributive lag (ARDL) model is employed to carry out the estimation given the weakness of the Engle-Granger residual-based cointegration technique to test the long-run and short-run effects of the impacts of inflation on financial sector development. The results of the estimation reveal that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between inflation and financial sector development in Nigeria. There is need to test for threshold effects of inflation on financial development in Nigeria.
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Alekhin, Boris I. "Oil and the Ruble: Collapse of Cointegration." Financial Journal 13, no. 1 (February 2021): 58–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2021-1-58-74.
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Oil still contributes around 30 % to Russia's commodity export earnings, therefore the impact of oil prices on Ruble's exchange rate is of current interest to Russian economists. Instruments of time series analysis were used to test a proposition that the Russian ruble’s exchange rate has become less dependent on Brent crude oil price in recent years. We obtained 1,095 weekly observations for years 2000 to 2020 were obtained from FINAM company website. Our empirical model is a linear regression of the ruble’s exchange rate on Brent crude oil price. The Bai-Perron test has identified three structural breaks in the data corresponding to four chronological regimes. The Engle-Granger cointegration test has found both the rate and the price to be non-stationary in all regimes while cointegration was found only in the third regime (September 12, 2011 – October 23, 2017). The main reasons for collapse of cointegration in the fourth regime (October 30, 2017 – December 28, 2020) are 1) successful efforts by oil-producing countries to curb oil production, 2) decline in Russian import of goods and services, 3) Bank of Russia’s contractionary monetary policy, 4) built-in exchange rate stabilizer activated by the budget rule, and 5) anti-Russian sanctions. Cointegration, as it turns out, comes and goes.
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Černohorská, Liběna, and Darina Kubicová. "Risks and the influence of negative interest rates on economic activity: a case study of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland." Banks and Bank Systems 15, no. 1 (February 27, 2020): 30–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.15(1).2020.04.
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of negative interest rates on economic activity in a selected group of countries, in particular Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, for the period 2009–2018. The central banks of these countries were among the first to implement negative interest rates to revive the economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzed long- and short-term relationships between interest rates announced by central banks and gross domestic product and blue chip stock indices. Time series analysis was conducted using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis and Granger causality testing to identify long- and short-term relationship. The first step, using the Akaike criteria, was to determine the optimal delay of the entire time interval for the analyzed periods. Time series that seem to be stationary were excluded based on the results of the Dickey-Fuller test. Further testing continued with the Engle-Granger test if the conditions were met. It was designed to identify co-integration relationships that would show correlation between the selected variables. These tests showed that at a significance level of 0.05, there is no co-integration between any time series in the countries analyzed. On the basis of these analyses, it was determined that there were no long-term relationships between interest rates and GDP or stock indices for these countries during the monitored time period. Using Granger causality, the study only confirmed short-term relationship between interest rates and GDP for all examined countries, though not between interest rates and the stock indices. Acknowledgment The paper has been created with the financial support of The Czech Science Foundation GACR 18-05244S – Innovative Approaches to Credit Risk Management.
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Hechmy, Badry. "Can conventional energy be replaced by renewable energy without harming economic growth in non-oil-MENA? Evidence from Granger causality in VECM." World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development 15, no. 2 (July 5, 2019): 159–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/wjemsd-11-2018-0098.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in non-oil countries in the Middle East and North Africa (non-oil-MENA) during the period from 2000 to 2014. The Pedroni (2000) test shows that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between those variables; however, the Granger causality test in the vector error correction model (VECM) shows that this relationship is bidirectional in the short and long term. Thus, to ensure sustainable economic growth without pollution and to reduce dependence on abroad, renewable energies can be chosen as substitutes for conventional energies in the non-oil-MENA countries. Design/methodology/approach First, LLC and IPS unit root tests are used to test the variables stationarity; and, second, Pedroni panel cointegration and Engle–Granger causality by VECM analysis are used to check the relationship between the studied variables. Findings Empirical results show that the renewable energy consumption and economic growth are cointegrated and that there are two-way causal relationships between them in the long and in the short term. These countries must therefore encourage the consumption of renewable energy instead of traditional energy to reduce their dependence on energy from abroad and CO2 pollution. Originality/value The originality of this work lies in the measurements of the study variables and the empirical investigation methods used.
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Alhaj Yousef, Elham Mohammad. "The Long-Run Relationship between Disaggregated Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Jordan." International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 12, no. 5 (September 19, 2022): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.11912.
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The main purpose of this study is to investigate the long run impact of capital and current government expenditures on the economic growth of Jordan during the period 1990-2019. The study variables are integrated of different orders as indicated by Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Granger causality test has demonstrated the ability of both government expenditure components to cause and predict changes in the economic growth. Engle and Granger cointegration test has revealed that there is a cointegrated long-run relationship between the study variables. Therefore, the study model was estimated by applying two estimation methods; Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) models. The results of both methods showed that capital government expenditure has a significant positive long-run impact on the economic growth, while current expenditure has a significant negative long run impact on such growth according to FMOLS results. Based on these outcomes, the study recommends some procedures that must be implemented by the Jordanian government in order to increase its productive investments and reduce current expenditure.
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GHARNIT, SAID, Mohamed Bouzahzah, and Jihad Ait Soussane. "Foreign direct investment and pollution havens: evidence from African countries." Archives of Business Research 7, no. 12 (January 3, 2020): 244–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.712.7531.
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This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and carbon dioxide emissions (CE) in order to investigate the validity of the pollution haven hypothesis for 54 African countries, using cointegration approach with dynamic panel data over the period 1960-2018. Based on the panel cointegration analysis, it was concluded that the variables are cointegrated. Moreover, the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) results showed that foreign direct investment inflows have a long-run positive relationship with carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, according to Granger-Engle causality test results, FDI inflows and carbon dioxide emissions have a positive causal relationship, for both short-run and long-run. Thus, the results of this study validate the pollution haven hypothesis in the African countries. Nevertheless, it is recommended to keep attracting foreign direct investment inflows alongside of implementing mechanisms and instruments for reducing the CO2 emissions under strong environmental policies.
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Castañeda Martínez, Ana Erika, and Teresa López González. "CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO, TIPO DE CAMBIO REAL Y EXPORTACIONES MANUFACTURERAS DE MÉXICO, 1998-2020." Investigación Económica 82, no. 323 (December 17, 2022): 53–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.323.83890.
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El principal objetivo del artículo es comprobar empíricamente, para el caso de México en el periodo 1998-2020, la hipótesis central del enfoque neoestructuralista que sostiene la existencia de una relación positiva entre el tipo de cambio real y el crecimiento económico. Utilizamos un modelo de cointegración del tipo Engle y Granger. Exponemos hechos estilizados sobre los flujos comerciales que muestran algunas características de dichos flujos, los cuales permiten entender por qué en la economía mexicana no se registraron las derramas de la difusión tecnológica (spillovers from technology difussion) que, según la nueva teoría del comercio internacional, son inducidas por la liberalización comercial, más concretamente por las exportaciones de mercancías. Estos hechos estilizados contribuyen a la interpretación de los resultados del modelo de cointegración, así como a identificar algunos de los factores de la restricción externa al crecimiento en la economía mexicana (Thirlwall, 1979). ECONOMIC GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND MEXICO’S MANUFACTURING EXPORTS, 1998-2020 ABSTRACT The main objective of this article is to empirically test, for the case of Mexico over the period 1998-2020, the central hypothesis of the Neostructuralist approach, namely the existence of a positive relationship between the real exchange rate and economic growth. To this purpose, a cointegration model of the Engle and Granger type is used. Stylized facts about trade flows are presented showing some characteristics of the said flows, which allow us to understand why in the Mexican economy the spillovers of technological diffusion are not seen, spillovers which, according to the new international trade theory, are induced by trade liberalization, more specifically by merchandise exports. These stylized facts contribute to the interpretation of the results of the cointegration model as well as to identify some of the factors involved in the external constraints on the growth rate of the Mexican economy (Thirlwall, 1979).
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Alekhin, Boris Ivanovich. "Dynamics of inflation in Russia and the USA (2000–2021)." Mezhdunarodnaja jekonomika (The World Economics), no. 3 (February 18, 2022): 182–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.33920/vne-04-2203-01.
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The subject matter of this research paper is price inflation in Russia and the United States as measured by the consumer price index from January of 2000 up to December of 2021 (264 monthly observations for each country). The research objective is to test the hypothesis of non-stationarity of inflation in both countries and the hypothesis of statistical independence of inflation in Russia from inflation in the United States. Within the first hypothesis we performed the unit root test with one structural break and estimated a long-memory parameter and persistence level of inflation. In both countries inflation appeared to be non-stationary, highly persistent and having a long memory. Within the second hypothesis Granger pair causality and Engle-Granger cointegration tests were performed. Inflation in Russia was not Granger-caused by US inflation, and both were not cointegrated. The major goal of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the Federal Reserve System is low and stable inflation. To achieve this goal both regulators use a variety of tools the primary one being change of targets for short-term interest rates on interbank money market to affect spending decisions and prices. But the tool is double edged sword. Low and stable inflation comes at the expense of economic growth.
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Shuaibu, Mohammed, and Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola. "An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria’s Current Account Sustainability." Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research 11, no. 1 (February 2017): 54–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0973801016676015.
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This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades using time-series analysis on annual data from 1981 to 2013. We focus on two analytical distinctions to the inter-temporal budget constraint (IBC) hypothesis in relation to previous studies. First, we extend the standard bivariate approach to a multivariate framework that accounts for the roles of oil price variations and financial deepening, which have important implications for resource allocation. Second is the use of the Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD)-based causality test that is also carried out to arbitrage between the results with and without a structural break. It employs both the conventional unit root test (augmented Dickey–Fuller [ADF] and Phillips–Perron [PP]) and the unit root test with a structural break (Perron, 2006; Zivot & Andrews, 1992). It also carries out the conventional residual-based cointegration test (Engle & Granger, 1987) and the residual-based cointegration test with a structural break (Gregory & Hansen, 1995). Findings suggest that there is current account sustainability in Nigeria and structural changes were not very potent during the period under consideration. This implies that the Nigerian economy complied with the IBC hypothesis, suggesting that exports could actually finance imports. JEL Classification: F30, F32
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Shook, Steven R., Nataliya Plesha, and Darek J. Nalle. "Does cointegration of prices of North American softwood lumber species imply nearly perfectly substitutable products?" Canadian Journal of Forest Research 39, no. 3 (March 2009): 553–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x08-197.
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This study uses the Engle–Granger cointegration method to examine the correlation relationship among prices of North American softwood lumber species, wood-based panel prices, and US single-family housing starts. The methodology employed is identical to that used by US petitioners in the latest round of the Canada – United States softwood lumber trade dispute, whereby petitioners argued that all North American species of softwood lumber were considered to be nearly perfect substitutes for one another. Tests for nonstationarity using the augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test, as well as our cointegration results, confirm petitioners’ results. We find evidence of a long-term cointegrating relationship among the prices of North American softwood lumber species. However, we found no clear evidence of nearly perfect substitutability among different North American softwood lumber species. Additional analysis reveals that a long-run equilibrium relationship also exists between North American softwood lumber species and four types of wood-based panel products, as well as US single-family housing starts. Given that the price movements of different wood-based panel products and single-family housing starts are highly correlated with the price movement of North American softwood lumber species, we fail to conclude that North American softwood lumber species can be claimed as nearly perfect substitutes. Furthermore, we find that the petitioners’ analysis is deficient in that it does not account for the fact that cointegration in prices among North American species of softwood lumber can be caused by common demand-side factors, such as residential construction activity.
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Jamei, Naseem H., Mira Nurmakhanova, Shahbaz Mustafa, Alloysius Egbulonu, and Wagdi Hadidan. "The long run relationship between fish production, marine trade balance and foreign direct investment." Maritime Business Review 5, no. 3 (April 20, 2020): 271–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mabr-01-2020-0008.
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Purpose This paper aims to focus on testing the long-run relationship between fish production and two main variables, the foreign direct investment inflow and the marine trade balance in Oman, which is one of the Arab Gulf countries, during the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses what known as the two-step Engle–Granger cointegration test to give evidence for the long-run relationship among the variables. Findings The results show that there are a negative long- and short-run relations between fish production and marine trade balance; moreover, any shocks will be corrected within two periods at the most. Originality/value This study is one of few studies in using the econometric models to study the impact of fish production on marine trade balance and foreign direct investment.
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Hadi, Abdul Razak Abdul, Hafezali Iqbal Hussain, and Zalina Zainudin. "Did Conventional Interest Rate Influence Islamic Total Deposits? Evidence From January 2007 Till January 2019." International Journal of Financial Research 10, no. 5 (June 10, 2019): 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v10n5p11.
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This study is carried out to examine the influence of Malaysian conventional interest rate and narrow money supply (M1) upon the growth of Islamic total deposits (ITD) in Malaysia Islamic financial system. Even though it is a known fact that there is a clear separation between Islamic and conventional financial markets, the study is still pursued on the spirit of providing the latest empirical evidence. Since Malaysia is one of the biggest players in Islamic financial products, it is always the centre of attraction among the world investment community. Using 3-month Interbank rate (IBR) coupled with the deployment of Engle-Granger Cointegration Test (1987) as an estimation tool, the results from Error Correction model uncovers that ITD and IBR are not cointegated. There is also an absence of short-run relationship between these two variables. On the contrary, this bi-variate cointegration test proves the presence of equilibrium relationship between ITD and M1 but fail to support the dynamic relation between them. From the analysis of dynamic interactions via impulse-response functions and variance decomposition, the study reveals that ITD is the most exogenous variable of all. As such, ITD is unquestionably a leading economic indicator.
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Susilo, Ignatia Bintang Filia Dei, Dian Pujiatma Vera Subchanifa, Risna Amalia Hamzah, and Dwi Hastuti Lestari Komarlina. "Efisiensi Pasar Valuta Asing di Indonesia: Analisis Empiris." WELFARE Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi 3, no. 1 (September 14, 2022): 81–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.37058/wlfr.v3i1.4794.
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This study will examine the efficiency of foreign exchange market in Indonesia is it efficient in the weak form or semi-strong form, and see its implications in Indonesia. This study used data of the Rupiah’s spot market exchange rate with US Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro, Singapore Dollar (SGD), and Japanese Yen (JPY), from March 2017 to March 2022, taken from Bank Indonesia. Weak form of market efficiency is analyzed using the unit root test to determine whether the data follows a random walk or not. Semi-strong form efficiency is analyzed using cointegration test, Engle-Granger, Johansen, and variance decomposition analysis. Results indicate that the foreign exchange market in Indonesia has weak form. Players in the market can still use fundamental analysis to determine the next exchange rate movement in order for players to make a profit, which is more relevant to consider than historical data.Studi ini akan menelaah efisiensi pasar valuta asing di Indonesia. Apakah efisien dalam bentuk lemah atau semi-kuat, serta melihat bagaimana implikasinya di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah nilai tukar Rupiah dengan mata uang lima negara lain; Dolar Amerika (USD), Dolar Australia (AUD), Euro, Dolar Singapura (SGD), dan Yen Jepang (JPY), di pasar spot periode Maret 2017 – Maret 2022 yang diambil dari Bank Indonesia. Bentuk efisiensi pasar lemah dianalisis mengunakan unit root test untuk mengetahui apakah data mengalami random walk atau tidak. Adanya unit root mengindikasikan bahwa perilaku data tidak stasioner. Bentuk efisiensi semi-kuat dianalisis menggunakan uji kointegrasi, Engle-Granger, Johansen, dan variance decomposition analysis. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pasar valuta asing di Indonesia termasuk dalam bentuk efisien lemah. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa pemain di pasar valuta asing masih dapat menggunakan analisis fundamental yang lebih relevan sebagai pertimbangan dibandingkan data historis untuk menentukan pergerakan kurs selanjutnya agar pemain memperoleh keuntungan.
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Kustiari, Reni, Wahyuning Kusuma Sejati, and Riva Yulmahera. "Integrasi Pasar dan Pembentukan Harga Cabai Merah di Indonesia." Jurnal Agro Ekonomi 36, no. 1 (October 30, 2018): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/jae.v36n1.2018.39-53.
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<strong>English</strong><br />Red chili is one of the essential horticultural commodities because it is the main cooking spice for the Indonesian people. This paper discusses the integration of the red chili market in Indonesia using monthly price data for the period 2011-2016. Market integration is analyzed using Johansen cointegration models. The Engle-Granger (EG) causality test results show that producer prices and wholesale prices affect consumer prices, there is a one-way causal relationship. Therefore, the causality approach accepts the Law of One Price (LOP) hypothesis of red chili price. The results of the co-integration model show that the market for red chili is well integrated. Furthermore, variance decomposition analysis shows that Medan is the market leader for chili in Indonesia.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Cabai merah adalah salah satu komoditas hortikultura yang penting karena merupakan bumbu masak utama bagi masyarakat Indonesia. Makalah ini membahas integrasi pasar cabai merah di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data harga bulanan periode 2011-2016. Integrasi pasar dianalisis dengan menggunakan Johansen kointegrasi model. Hasil uji kausalitas Engle-Granger (EG) menunjukkan bahwa harga produsen dan harga grosir mempengaruhi harga konsumen, ada hubungan kausal satu cara. Oleh karena itu, pendekatan kausalitas menerima hipotesis Hukum Satu Harga (LOP) komoditas cabai merah. Hasil dari model co-integration menunjukkan bahwa pasar cabai merah terintegrasi dengan baik. Selanjutnya, analisis variance decomposition menunjukkan bahwa Medan adalah pasar acuan (price leader) untuk harga cabai di indonesia.
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Amalu, Henry Ikechukwu, Thaddeus Nnaemeka Ukwueze, Loenard U. Olife, and Favour Friday Irokwe. "Product Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Engle-Granger Approach, Evidence From 1981 - 2019." Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Administrative Sciences 1, no. 2 (November 8, 2020): 66–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.47631/jareas.v1i2.111.
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Purpose: Product tax is an essential tool for governments, serving both as a revenue generator and fiscal policy instrument. The paper examines short-run and long-run relationships shared by product taxes and economic growth in Nigeria for the period, 1981 to 2019. Approach/Methodology/Design: The study checks the stationarity properties of the series by testing them for unit roots using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) method and Philip-Perron unit root test. Both unit root tests indicate that the series is stationary at first difference. In view of this, the study deploys a cointegration technique, Engle-Granger two-step procedure to determine the long-run and short-run links shared by the variables of interest. The Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) estimation and the Granger causality estimations for speed of adjustment and causality of the variables were also used. Findings: The results reveal that product tax revenues and economic growth cointegrate in the long-run; while product tax revenues exert a significant positive effect on economic growth both in the short-term and long-term. The outcome of the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) estimation shows a swift speed of adjustment to a new long-run equilibrium after a shock. The outcome of the Granger causality estimations indicates a uni-directional causality from economic growth to revenues from product taxes. Practical Implications: This study is significant at this point when the country is facing increasing economic challenges. It will be useful to policy makers who might want to explore the possibility of using product tax as a fiscal policy tool, and a source of revenue to augment the declining revenue of the government from other sources. Originality/value: The paper explores short-run and long-run relationships shared between product taxes and economic growth in Nigeria using a two-step procedure of Engle and Granger, and it verifies causality link between the later and the former.
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Nirmala, Tiara. "ALAT PEMBAYARAN MENGGUNAKAN KARTU DAN PERMINTAAN UANG KARTAL DI INDONESIA." Ecosains: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 1, no. 1 (May 1, 2012): 9. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/ecosains.346357.00.
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This study aimed to analyze the effect to using a payment card on the demand for money, especially in Indonesian currency in the long and short term. The data used in this study is a secondary data in the form of time series data months of the year 2008:1 until 2010:12. The variables used are real currency demand as the dependent variable, while the real GDP, interest rate, interest parity condition, and payment transactions using cards as independent variables. The method of analysis used in this study is the Engle-Granger Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of the assessment for Indonesia in the short term and long term, means of payment using the card have a positive influence on the demand for currency. Thus the increase in payment card has not been able to reduce the demand for currency.
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Khanom, Ms Sharmina. "Economic Transformation in Bangladesh and the Income Velocity of Broad Money: An Econometric Analysis." Journal of Social Sciences Research, no. 52 (January 25, 2019): 408–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.32861/jssr.52.408.417.
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This study has undertaken an econometric analysis of economic transformation and income velocity of broad money. To find out the relevant determinants of income velocity of money this paper used time series data on year basis. This paper focus to discover the key determinants of the velocity of money in Bangladesh using the Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) unit root test to inspect the stationary, Engle-Granger residual-based cointegration approach to demonstrate the co-integrating association among variables. The main conclusions of this paper are: (i) relationship exists between the velocity of money and financial development. Other important variables that determine GDP growth show a negative relationship with the velocity of money but maintain a positive relationship with the deposit interest rate. Finally, this study concludes by giving some policy recommends for Bangladesh with respect to the velocity of broad money and the monetary policy.
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Hina, Hafsa, and Abdul Qayyum. "Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors." Pakistan Development Review 54, no. 2 (June 1, 2015): 123–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v54i2pp.123-145.
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This study employs the Mundell (1963) and Fleming (1962) traditional flow model of exchange rate to examine the long run behaviour of rupee/US $ exchange rate for Pakistan economy over the period 1982:Q1 to 2010:Q2. This study investigates the effect of output levels, interest rates and prices and different shocks on exchange rate. Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (HEGY) (1990) unit root test confirms the presence of non-seasonal unit root and finds no evidence of biannual and annual frequency unit root in the level of series. Johansen and Juselious (1988, 1992) likelihood ratio test indicates three long-run cointegrating vectors. Cointegrating vectors are uniquely identified by imposing structural economic restrictions on purchasing power parity (PPP), uncovered interest parity (UIP) and current account balance. Finally, the short-run dynamic error correction model is estimated on the basis of identified cointegrated vectors. The speed of adjustment coefficient indicates that 17 percent of divergence from long-run equilibrium exchange rate path is being corrected in each quarter. US war with Afghanistan has significant impact on rupee in short run because of high inflows of US aid to Pakistan after 9/11. Finally, the parsimonious short run dynamic error correction model is able to beat the naïve random walk model at out of sample forecasting horizons. JEL Classification: F31, F37, F47 Keywords: Exchange Rate Determination, Keynesian Model, Cointegration, Out of Sample Forecasting, Random Walk Model
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Martínez-Fernández, Valentín-Alejandro, Pablo Castellanos, and Óscar Juanatey-Boga. "Advertising investment as a tool for boosting consumption: testing Galbraith's hypothesis for Spain." Revista de Economia Contemporânea 18, no. 3 (December 2014): 435–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/141598481836.
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The recession that most of the world economies have been facing in the last years has caused a great interest in the study of its macroeconomic effects. In this context, a debate has resurged regarding the advertising investment, as for its potential capacity to impel the consumer spending and to impact positively on the economic recovery. This idea, sustained in the so-called Galbraith's hypothesis, constitutes the core of this paper, where the main objective is to test that hypothesis by means of an empirical analysis. In this study, we focus on the Spanish case and the data correspond to the period 1976 -2010. A cointegration analysis is carried out, using two different approaches (Engle-Granger test and Gregory-Hansen test, respectively), to determine if there is any relationship between the advertising investment and six macromagnitudes (GDP, National Income, Consumption, Savings and Fixed Capital Formation), as well as the registered unemployment rate. Based on the results obtained, we conclude that Galbraith's hypothesis is not fulfilled for the Spanish case.
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Amor, Hadj, and Araj El. "Long term dynamic of real exchange rate, trade liberalization and financial integration: The case of south-east Mediterranean countries." Panoeconomicus 56, no. 1 (2009): 73–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan0901073a.
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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of the trade liberalization and of the international financial integration on the long-term behavior of Real Exchange Rate (RER) for the South East Mediterranean countries. So the following question: how does the new trade and financial context affect the Equilibrium RER? We refer to the econometric technique of time series analysis, (the unit root tests of Dickey-Fuller (1979) and we apply the cointegration test of Engle and Granger (1987) of single equation for six South East Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey) over the period of 1979-2004. Our estimates suggest that, for the six countries, long-term RER behavior depends essentially on economic specificity of each country and in particular on their degree of financial integration and trade opening. Our results also show that the evolution of the RER misalignment during our sample period, seem to be for some countries persistant and recurrent, but with decrease.
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Smith, Renée M. "Error Correction, Attractors, and Cointegration: Substantive and Methodological Issues." Political Analysis 4 (1992): 249–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/4.1.249.
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I am pleased to participate in this symposium because I agree that mutual criticism of our theories and of the methods used to test them helps to make social science objective and rational (Popper 1976). Space limitations preclude me from responding to all of the comments and suggestions of Beck and Williams (in this volume), but my interpretation of their key points is as follows: (1) estimating multiequation error correction models (ECMs) is unnecessary either because many theories provide us with exogeneity restrictions that imply single equation ECMs (Beck) or because statistical inference is unaffected by integration and cointegration in vector autoregressive systems (Williams); (2) using OLS in one step to estimate a single equation ECM is statistically superior to using the Engle-Granger two-step estimator (Beck); (3) commonly used classical hypothesis tests for nonstationarity favor the null hypothesis of a unit root, and therefore cannot be believed, but Bayesian inference with a flat prior solves this and other problems of inference (Williams); and (4) presidential approval is neither statistically nor conceptually an integrated random walk, but is either long memoried (Beck) or stationary (Williams). These are thought-provoking comments, and to one of them I will reply mea culpa. However, some of them need to be qualified, and others are incorrect. I begin by responding to comments (1) and (2) assuming that two or more time-series are integrated and cointegrated and then address comments (3) and (4), which question assumptions of and tests for integration and cointegration.
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Donggori, Mitha Febby R., Adi Setiawan, and Hanna Arini Parhusip. "Model Koreksi Kesalahan pada Data Runtun Waktu Indeks Harga Konsumen Kota-kota di Papua." d'CARTESIAN 3, no. 1 (March 30, 2014): 81. http://dx.doi.org/10.35799/dc.3.1.2014.4011.
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Abstract The Consumer Price Index is used as a measure of inflation. Consumer Price Index data is time series data are often not stationary, causing decision-making related to the data becomes invalid. Consumer Price Index has a different rate of change in each region, as well as for the city of Jayapura, Sorong and Manokwari in Papua. In this paper, Error Correction Model is used to correct short-term imbalances and establish a long term relationship models Consumer Price Index cities - cities in Papua. We use time period : January 2009 to May 2013. To test stationarity of the data, we use Phillips - Perron unit root test. Engle - Granger cointegration test is performed to determine whether there is a long-term relationship among cities in Papua. Furthermore, the model established by using the Error Correction Method by Domowitz - Elbadawi to correct short- term imbalances and establish long-term relationships model. The obtained Error Correction Models were compared to the results obtained with the bootstrap method . . Keywords : consumer price index, stationarity test, co integration test, error correction model, the bootstrap method Abstrak Indeks Harga Konsumen digunakan sebagai tolok ukur inflasi. Data Indeks Harga Konsumen merupakan data runtun waktu yang seringkali tidak stasioner sehingga menyebabkan pengambilan keputusan yang berkaitan dengan data menjadi tidak valid. Indeks Harga Konsumen memiliki tingkat perubahan yang berbeda di setiap daerah, begitu juga untuk kota Jayapura, Sorong dan Manokwari di Papua. Model koreksi kesalahan digunakan untuk mengoreksi ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek dan membentuk model hubungan jangka panjang Indeks Harga Konsumen kota – kota di Papua pada makalah ini. Periode waktu yang diamati adalah bulan Januari 2009 sampai dengan bulan Mei 2013. Uji stasioneritas data dengan uji akar unit Phillips-Perron, uji kointegrasi Engle-Granger yang dilakukan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya hubungan jangka panjang di antara kota – kota tersebut. Lebih lanjut, dibentuk model koreksi kesalahan dengan metode Domowitz-Elbadawi untuk mengoreksi ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek dan membentuk model hubungan jangka panjang. Model koreksi kesalahan yang diperoleh dibandingkan dengan hasil yang diperoleh dengan metode bootstrap. Kata kunci: indeks harga konsumen, uji stasioneritas, uji kointegrasi, model koreksi kesalahan, metode bootstrap
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González Velasco, María del Carmen, and Roque Brinckmann. "Análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea." Pecvnia : Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de León, no. 2011 (March 27, 2013): 47. http://dx.doi.org/10.18002/pec.v0i2011.752.
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En este artículo se efectúa un análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea y, en concreto, de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Económica yMonetaria y de la zona no euro para el periodo comprendido entre Enero de 1999 y Septiembre 2009. Se aplica la metodología de la cointegración de Engle y Granger (1987) y de Johansen(1988) para contrastar la hipótesis de la paridad de tipos de interés no cubierta y se llega a la conclusión de que ambas políticas están cointegradas porque mantienen una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo. También se deduce una dependencia de la política del Banco de Inglaterra de la política del Banco Central Europeo, lo que confirma la importancia y el liderazgo de la Unión Económica y Monetaria.<br /><br />This study is to investigate the long-run relationship and dependence between the UME´s monetary policy and non-euro zone´s monetary policy for the period from January 4, 1999 to September 30, 2009. We use cointegration methodology to test the Uncovered Interest Parity Hypothesis and the results indicate a long-run cointegration and empirical evidence testifies a leader-follower pattern between the two central banks. According to this pattern, the Bank of England does follow the European Central Bank.
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González Velasco, María del Carmen, and Roque Brinckmann. "Análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea." Pecvnia : Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de León, Monogr (March 27, 2013): 47. http://dx.doi.org/10.18002/pec.v0imonogr.752.
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En este artículo se efectúa un análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea y, en concreto, de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Económica yMonetaria y de la zona no euro para el periodo comprendido entre Enero de 1999 y Septiembre 2009. Se aplica la metodología de la cointegración de Engle y Granger (1987) y de Johansen(1988) para contrastar la hipótesis de la paridad de tipos de interés no cubierta y se llega a la conclusión de que ambas políticas están cointegradas porque mantienen una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo. También se deduce una dependencia de la política del Banco de Inglaterra de la política del Banco Central Europeo, lo que confirma la importancia y el liderazgo de la Unión Económica y Monetaria.<br /><br />This study is to investigate the long-run relationship and dependence between the UME´s monetary policy and non-euro zone´s monetary policy for the period from January 4, 1999 to September 30, 2009. We use cointegration methodology to test the Uncovered Interest Parity Hypothesis and the results indicate a long-run cointegration and empirical evidence testifies a leader-follower pattern between the two central banks. According to this pattern, the Bank of England does follow the European Central Bank.
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Abidillah, Achmad Fadlil, and Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono. "Do Macroeconomics Variables Affect Conventional and Islamic Banking Profitability?" AFEBI Islamic Finance and Economic Review 4, no. 02 (December 17, 2019): 101. http://dx.doi.org/10.47312/aifer.v4i02.363.
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<em>This study aims to examine the impact of external macroeconomic variables on profitability of conventional banking and Islamic banking in Indonesia. Macroeconomic variables included in the model are: inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate, and money supply. This study took a period of time from 2007 to 2017, quarterly. Using an Engle-Granger cointegration test and error correction model, this study will analyze a short and long term correlation of macroeconomic variables again banking profitability. The results of this study indicate that in short term, conventional bangking’s profitability is influenced by money supply, while in long term is influenced by inflation and currency exchange rates. Then, other results show that macroeconomic variables do not affect Islamic banking’s profitability in the short term, while in long term Islamic banking’s profitability is only influenced by exchange rate of currency. This study provides recommendations to banking management in order to optimizing management of its instruments, so that it can adjust to macroeconomic turmoil in the economy.</em>
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Cavenaghi, Fernanda Bojikian, Tabajara Pimenta Junior, Rafael Moreira Antônio, Fabiano Guasti Lima, and Ana Carolina Costa Corrêa. "The behavior of Brazilian companies shares return under social responsibility." Revista de Negócios 24, no. 3 (September 30, 2019): 49. http://dx.doi.org/10.7867/1980-4431.2019v24n3p49-61.
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Several scientific studies seek to establish a relationship between the adoption of corporate social responsibility practices and financial and/or economic performance of companies. There are no definitive answers to this question. Compared performance of ISE – Índice de Sustentabilidade Empresarial (Index of Corporate Sustainability) and Ibovespa index, both from Brazilian stock market, is often used to characterize the influence of good business practices in this area. This work investigated this question in an innovative prism. Instead of using directly that index returns series, we constructed a portfolio composed only of companies that remained in ISE portfolio over the five years from 2012 to 2016, and compared their performance with a portfolio of an equal number of companies, taken among the most liquid ones that continuously participated in the Ibovespa portfolio in same period. For this purpose, we used Mann-Whitney averages comparison test, return series stationarity tests – Augumented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron - and Engle-Granger cointegration test. The results showed higher average returns for portfolio of socially responsible companies, indicating a growth of their returns compared to portfolio of conventional companies, and showed, however, a tendency to balance in long term run.
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Oumarou, Issoufou. "Remittances and Economic Growth in Niger: An Error Correction Mechanism Approach." Journal of Social and Economic Statistics 10, no. 1-2 (December 1, 2021): 17–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jses-2021-0002.
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Abstract Migration has for a long time been a significant source of revenue for a huge number of persons in the Republic of Niger. In order to improve their families living condition, a great number of young people in Niger follow the migration path. In 2019, a total of 293 million U.S. dollars has been sent by migrants to their family members in Niger (World Bank, 2019), that is 3% of Niger GDP. The study used various time series econometric techniques including unit root test, Engle-Granger cointegration test, vector equilibrium correction method and some diagnostic tests on the residuals to inspect the connection between remittances and economic growth in Niger. The empirical results showed that there is the existence of a long run relationship between remittances and economic growth in Niger. The error correction term’s coefficient shows that about 51.62% of the discrepancy between long run and short run is corrected with a yearly data suggesting an acceptable rate of adjustment to equilibrium. Also, in the short run ceteris paribus a 10% increase in the remittances would lead to 2.03% increase in Niger Gross Domestic Product.
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Atsu, Francis, Charles Agyei, William Phanuel Darbi, and Sussana Adjei-Mensah. "The impact of telecommunication revenue on economic growth: evidence from Ghana." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 5, no. 2 (July 1, 2014): 195–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-10-2011-0076.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run impact of telecommunications revenue and telecommunications investment on economic growth of Ghana for the time horizon 1976-2007. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron unit root test to explore the stationarity property of the variables and the Engle-Granger residual-based test of cointegration to model an appropriate restricted error correction model. Findings – The outcome of the analysis produced mixed results. Telecommunications revenue does not contribute significantly whilst telecommunications investment does. Practical implications – Policy makers will have to deal with a conundrum; while designing targeted policies that will attract more telecommunication investment in order to maximize the corresponding revenues and the economic growth it brings in its wake, they must at the same time find ways and resources to grow the economy to a point or threshold where revenue from telecommunications can have the much needed impact on their economies. Originality/value – The study is one of the first that has investigated the line of causality between telecommunication revenue and economic growth unlike previous research that mainly focused on the impact of telecommunication infrastructure on economic development.
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Kożuch, Anna, and Jan Banaś. "The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets." Forests 11, no. 9 (August 19, 2020): 902. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f11090902.
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The European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is the most prevalent deciduous tree species in Central Europe. The implementation of sustainable, close-to-nature silvicultural practices increased the percentage share of beech in forest species composition, raising the economic significance of beech roundwood, especially in terms of revenues from timber sales. The elucidation of roundwood price mechanisms as well as long-term equilibrium relations between international markets may be helpful in calculating the profitability of beech roundwood production. The study material consists of quarterly time series of beech roundwood prices from Austria, Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia in the years 2005–2018. The price time series were described with a multiplicative model incorporating seasonal, cyclical, and irregular, as well as long-term trend components. The time series were decomposed using the Census X11 method. Stationarity was tested by means of the augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS). Cointegration was assessed using the Johansen and Engle–Granger methods. From 2005–2018, the highest mean beech roundwood prices were found for Austria (77.5 € m−3) and Germany, and the lowest for Poland and Slovakia. Roundwood prices were badly affected by the 2008/2009 financial crisis, which caused an approx. 27% decline. The prices of large-diameter beech logs exhibited seasonal fluctuations, typically reaching a maximum in Q1 and a minimum in Q3. The amplitude of those fluctuations was the highest in Slovenia in 2005 (10.1%), while in Czechia and Germany, seasonal effects increased over the period of study. The lowest seasonality was found in Slovakia and Austria (in the latter country it was not statistically significant). On an annual scale, cyclical changes generally accounted for the largest proportion of price variation, and were particularly pronounced in Poland (78.9%), Slovakia (78.6%), and Austria (69.2%). On the other hand, seasonal effects were predominant in the Slovenian (40.6%), German (34.1%), and Czech (33.3%) markets. In countries with price series of type I(0), simple correlation between stationary beech roundwood prices is positive and the strongest between Czechia–Poland and Czechia–Austria; on the other hand they are the weakest in the German market. In Slovakia and Slovenia with nonstationary price series, both Johansen’s and Engle-Granger’s cointegration tests indicated the absence of a long-term equilibrium between the analyzed beech timber markets. Results revealed integration between the prices of large-diameter beech logs in Czechia, Austria, and Poland. It should be mentioned that in this study, the time series of price used are rather short for long time cointegration analysis, which might prevent the proper detection of cointegration between all analyzed countries.