Academic literature on the topic 'Energy security ; Energy policy ; Energy consumption'

This study aims to discuss new and renewable energy policies as an effort to build national energy security. Research methods use legal research that searches from various perspectives. The implementation of analysis, using the method of regulatory and focus on energy, generally has many impacts. First, the policy on the use of new and renewable energy aims to prepare the carrying capacity of national energy security. Implementation this policy has not been fully implemented because there are still many obstacles faced. Second, the use of new energy and renewable energy as an effort to build national energy security in Indonesia is still not optimal. Even though Indonesia is blessed with abundant natural and energy resources in all its regions and the need for new and renewable energy as the future fate of energy security in the unitary state of the Republic of Indonesia for people's welfare as a step to reduce the increase in consumption of fossil-based energy.

Embodied energy is termed as the total (direct and indirect) energy required to produce economic or environmental goods and services. It is different from the direct energy measurement of energy consumption. Due to the importance of energy security, it has attracted increasing attention. In order to explore whether and to what extent embodied energy can provide a more innovative approach and competitive perspective to energy security issues, 2608 relevant pieces of literature from the Web of Science core collection are analyzed in this study. Results show that embodied energy has been taken seriously. Moreover, by reviewing the typical literature, this paper first summarizes the embodied energy calculation methods and models, then investigates how embodied energy provides a new perspective to energy issues, and lastly analyzes how to show value in energy security issues in its application of guiding policy-making and energy security studies. In summary, there is no doubt that embodied energy can provide a more integrated perspective on energy consumption and demand and provide a more scientific reference for policy-making to enhance energy security. However, because of data and application scope limitations, establishing a comprehensive energy security research and application system with embodied energy measurements needs hard work.

Energy and environmental policies in Singapore have had two goals — to help the Singapore economy grow, and to keep Singapore clean and green. Energy policies such as development of an energy industry and an energy trading hub have contributed to economic growth and high per capita income, while enhancing energy security. There has been clear success toward achieving water self-sufficiency while providing water for all, and Singapore has become a global leader in the development and commercialization of water reclamation technologies. On the environmental front, indicators such as the share of green space, the ratio of wastes recycled, and decrease in some air pollutants show progress toward being clean and green. Per capita energy consumption has jumped to a high level by international standards, due to industrial structure, but energy efficiency and carbon emissions (per capita and per $ of GDP), have improved.

This study aims to discuss the policy of using renewable energy in the form of rare metal eart as an effort to build national energy security. The research method used a legal research looking from various perspectives in social science. Law is seen as a space for the process of scientific study in order to seek truth. The use of relevant legal research wants to understand the law more thoroughly. In performing implementation analysis, using the method of Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) with focus on energy regulation. The results of the study show that: First, the policy of the Indonesian republic government regarding the use of new energy and renewable energy aims to prepare the carrying capacity of national energy security. This policy has not fully gone well. The policy is not supported by consistency in issuing derivative policies. Second, the use of new energy and renewable energy, especially rare earth metals as part of efforts to encourage national energy security in Indonesia is still very far from expectations. The use of rare eart metal is only around 0.7% of the use of new energy. Efforts to explore and exploit rare earth metals have not been carried out in a timely manner. Whereas the potential of rare earth metals is a strategic community and has the potential to encourage national energy security in Indonesia. Indonesia is projected to produce rare earth metals reaching 20% of the world's supply.

Abstract Energy is pivotal for socio-economic and cultural development. Last century witnessed a drastic increase, on one hand on the consumption of energy and, on the other on greenhouse gases emissions. Traditionally, energy security has been linked with the need to guarantee supply and, in turn, enables economic growth. Against this background, countries focused on diversifying both energy sources and trade partners while at the same time increasing investment in energy infrastructure and technology. Investment in low-carbon energy sources for enhancing national energy policies prompts for a new understanding of energy security. The aim is, in fact, not anymore limited to securing provision but also to strengthen diversification and counteract the negative effects of energy consumption on the environment. The need to include a sustainability component to energy in trade, business and in the society at large, is adding a further layer of complexity in shaping national and international energy policy. Strategies to balance energy security, business, trade, and sustainable development are urgently needed in the Anthropocene. Creative and innovative approaches to energy policy could be found in countries where energy consumption is on a steady rise and environmental degradation is crystal clear.

Current policies in energy sector address issues including environmentally friendly technologies, clean and renewable energy supplies and encourage more efficient energy use. The biofuel policy aims to promote production and consumption of fuels made from biomass. Despite the presence of both positive and negative effects of biofuels the world production and consumption of biofuels have been increasing significantly. To a large extent, this is due to an active public policy in the field of stimulating the production and consumption of biofuels. The volume of biofuel production in the leading countries (USA, Brazil and the EU) has been analyzed. The influence of public policy in the sphere of biofuel production and consumption on energy, environment and food security of the state has been examined. Multivariable and paired correlation as well as regression analysis aimed to determine the price dependence of the main crops used as feedstock for biofuels production, the volume of their production or processing for biofuels and the volumes of biofuel production have been carried out. As a result of this analysis the impact of the public policies in biofuels on the еnergy, environment and food security has been identified.

The Malaysian governments Four Fuel Energy Policy is concerned with security of supply and the need to meet economic development targets through greater use of natural gas, hydropower and with imported coal. Gas reserves are 52 trillion cu. ft. and hydropower potential 29,000MW. Coal is included because of the enormous supplies available worldwide. Indigenous natural gas consumption is expected to grow at 9% p.a. till the year 2000 and to account for 40% of the total energy consumption. The Peninsula Gas Utilisation project will reduce the use of oil in electricity generation, provide it for steel manufacture and deliver gas to the domestic market. Natural gas will be used increasingly in transportation and for petrochemicals, excess production is destined for export.

The paper assesses the energy sector’s foreign exchange requirements for meeting energy consumption and for capital expenditures, and identifies its implications for the country’s macroeconomic policy and management. We develop a conceptual model for projecting the energy sector’s long-term requirements for foreign exchange. The model indicates that the country’s chronic dependence on oil imports is likely to expose the economy to high and volatile oil prices. A fundamental issue for Pakistan is how the energy projects requiring large inflows of foreign capital and technology will be financed. The main implication of our analysis is that there will be continuing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange resources. The demand for foreign exchange by the year 2024-25 is projected to be US$ 20-21 billion without the FDI in new power generation. However, when we include the requirements of foreign exchange for capital expenditure, the total FX requirements are in the range of US$ 23- 24 billion. An implication of the country’s chronic energy deficiency is that the macroeconomic policies, particularly the foreign exchange rate policy, need to be redefined to reflect the projected demands on hard currencies and their expected scarcity value. It is likely that Pakistan will remain dependent on foreign imports to meet its energy requirements for a long time and will need to generate commensurate foreign exchange resources to ensure longterm energy security. JEL classification: E66, F37, Q43 Keywords: Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Energy Security

Paper focuses on the renewable energy in Thailand. Objective is to compare risk on renewable energy and transportation consumption on biodiesel. It is using SWOT analysis and sustainable development theory as the tools. Besides, collecting data via questionnaire to investigate behaviors of people in having the ideas relating to biodiesel. The 52 responses from survey launching have returned. According to the results, the current consumption of biodiesel is still low because insufficient is on awareness of the consumers' trusts about biodiesel. Moreover, government's policy is not in good quality control. Biodiesel price has not been confirmed or set up in a clear standard that shows confidence in biodiesel to consumers. Remains adherence to diesel as it has been used for a longer period of time. Therefore, the risk of renewable energy in biodiesel is a relatively high risk. At the same time, in terms of environmental sustainability development, research results show that the use of biodiesel can help reducing air pollution at either PM 2.5 or global warming. Also, it would distribute an income to palm farmers. The results can be implemented for making improvements and suggesting recommendations to the government. A strengthening policy on renewable energy security and implement strategies is for solving various energy problems. With the concept of supporting research and development, it can create a wide range of knowledges, and the production of biodiesel as renewable energy. There should control the price structure, and the well quality practices to be fairly suitable in the nearly future. Keywords: Biodiesel, Consumption, Renewable Energy, Risk, Transportation

With the world-wide wave of economic development and improved traditional living standard of people, consumption of fuel has also increased significantly. Exponential growth in use of fossil fuel and its impacts compelled to search for alternative energy sources. Green energy is that source of energy that is naturally restocked. Nepal is rich enough country for renewable energy sources even though, could not accelerate growth and development agenda. Appropriate policy and planning of green energy would help to give a big push to break development hazards and would contribute for economic freedom and energy security. This paper attempts to scrutinize and understand the green energy utilization, proper management and exploring the capacity of the Nepalese economy.

This thesis considers India's pursuit of energy security. Defining energy security within traditional parameters of supply, delivery, diversification of fuels and suppliers, and affordable prices; the work considers India's energy security condition by surveying the core energy sectors including coal, oil and gas, hydroelectricity, nuclear power and renewables. India's pursuit of energy security is then disaggregated into domestic and international arenas and both are analysed in turn. Considerable attention is paid to the international dimension where India's quest to acquire energy resources is contextualised within bilateral relations with specific countries. What the proceeding analysis makes clear is that the international arena offers considerable opportunities, but also constraints on, the realisation of greater energy security. Chapter one analyses global trends in the main energy sectors of coal, oil, natural gas, hydroelectricity, nuclear power and renewables. Historically, the fortunes of the global energy sectors have mirrored trends in the global economy. Since 2008, most of the world's major industrialised economies have experienced negative or greatly reduced levels of growth. This is primarily due to the proliferation of vast quantities of debt that have capsized several financial institutions and are adversely affecting the liquidity and solvency of many developed governments. The global energy sectors have also been deeply affected by the economic downturn with access to funds for the development of new infrastructure squeezed. The recent poor economic growth of these countries has further accentuated the downward trend they have experienced in energy consumption. Nevertheless, many parts of the developing world, including India, have only been marginally affected by the global economic downturn and continue to develop rapidly. Consequentially most of the growth in demand for energy is coming from developing countries, particularly India. Although there are slight variations depending on sector, this dual trend of stagnation in the developed world and rapid growth in the developing is one ofthe recurring themes in the global energy markets. It is within this context that the second chapter considers India's energy security condition. Detailed analysis of the coal, oil, gas, hydroelectric and renewable sectors demonstrate succinctly that India is experiencing considerable growing pains. While several challenges are unique to each sector the chapter also identifies several systemic problems, including insufficient supply, rampant demand, a tendency to import.

National oil companies (NOCs) control over 80 percent of world oil reserves and over 50 percent of gas reserves and hold exclusive rights to exploration and development of oil and gas reserves within their home countries. Because of host government involvement and supervision, NOCs may also act as instruments of state, implementing government foreign and domestic policies such as wealth re-distribution through the provision of subsidised oil products, job creation, and economic development. Such activities can lead to restricted availability of funds for finding and developing reserves for future production and to inefficiencies in current production and distribution. This thesis assesses the geopolitical factors that influence the conduct, strategies and priorities of NOCs and how these may impact on the continuing security of energy supplies to countries which are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). It will focus on ten NOCs supplying oil to world markets and two which supply gas to the European market. The study will also review the activities and .scope for influence as state instruments of Sovereign Wealth Funds which have been established by states with NOCs, in particular, those which have earned substantial petro-dollar surpluses, during the period of high oil and gas prices of2006-2008. In an age of global interdependence between nations, specific objectives of this thesis are to consider the implications of anticipated growth in world demand for oil and gas supplies over the next 20 years, whether world production capacity is likely to grow to meet increases in world demand, the potential impact on world oil and gas supplies of the policies and practices of NOCs, in particular, the desire of host governments to require NOCs to follow non- commercial objectives, and the responses from OECD countries to threats to their energy security from potential restrictions on supplies.

Blockchain is a Distributed Ledger Technology that was popularized after the release of Bitcoin in 2009 as it was the first popular blockchain application. It is a technology for maintaining a digital and public ledger that is decentralized, which means that no single authority controls nor owns the public ledger. The ledger is formed by a chain of data structures, called blocks, that contain information. This ledger is shared publicly in a computer network where each node is called a peer. The problem that arises is how to make sure that every peer has the same ledger. This is solved with consensus mechanisms which are a set of rules that every peer must follow. Consensus mechanisms secure the ledger by ensuring that the majority of peers can reach agreement on the same ledger and that the malicious minority of peers cannot influence the majority agreement. There are many different consensus mechanisms. A problem with consensus mechanisms is that they have to make a trade-off between low energy consumption and high security. The purpose of this report is to explore and investigate the relationship between energy consumption and security in consensus mechanisms. The goal is to perform a comparative study of consensus mechanisms from an energy consumption and security perspective. The consensus mechanisms that are compared are Proof of Work, Proof of Stake and Delegated Proof of Stake. The methodology used is literature study and comparative study by using existing work and data from applications based on those consensus mechanisms. The results conclude that Proof of Work balances the trade-off by having high energy-consumption and high security, meanwhile Proof of Stake and Delegated Proof of Stake balance it by having low energy consumption but lower security level. In the analysis, a new factor arose, decentralization. The new insight in consensus mechanisms is that decentralization and security is threatened by an inevitable centralization where the ledger is controlled by few peers.
Blockchain är en så kallad distribuerad huvudbok teknologi som fick ett stort genombrott med den populära blockchain applikationen Bitcoin i 2009. Teknologin möjliggör upprätthållandet av en digital och offentlig huvudbok som är decentraliserad, vilket betyder att ingen ensam person eller organisation äger och kontrollerar den offentliga huvudboken. Huvudboken i blockchain är uppbyggt som en kedja av block, dessa block är datastrukturer som innehåller information. Huvudboken distribueras i ett nätverk av datorer som kallas för noder, dessa noder ägs av en eller flera personer. Problemet är att alla noderna i nätverket måste ha identiska huvudbok. Detta problem löses med en uppsättning av regler som noderna måste följa, denna uppsättning kallas för konsensus mekanism. Konsensus mekanismer säkrar huvudboken genom att möjliggöra en överenskommelse bland majoriteten av noderna om huvudbokens innehåll, och ser till att oärliga noder inte kan påverka majoritetens överenskommelse. Det finns flera olika konsensus mekanismer. Ett problem med konsensus mekanismer är att de är tvungna att göra en avvägning mellan låg energianvändning och hög säkerhet. Syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka och utreda relationen mellan energianvändning och säkerhet i konsensus mekanismer. Målet är att utföra en komparativ analys av konsensus mekanismer utifrån energianvändning och säkerhet. Konsensus mekanismerna som jämförs är Proof of Work, Proof of Stake och Delegated Proof of Stake. Metodologin som används är litteraturstudier och komparativ analys med hjälp av existerande metoder och data från applikationer som använder konsensus mekanismerna. Resultatet visar att Proof of Work väljer hög säkerhet på bekostnad av hög energianvändning, medan Proof of Stake och Delegated Proof of Stake väljer låg energianvändning men på bekostnad av lägre säkerhet. Analysen ger en ny inblick som visar att centralisering är en oundviklig faktor som hotar säkerheten.

Energy Security is a necessity of modern society and as technology and society evolve so does the requirement to secure energy to provide stability for state governments. Europe is in a transition period of increasing cohesion and integration, and Russia is leveraging its natural resources to conduct disruption campaigns coupled with energy coercion tactics. The EU is developing and has implemented policies conducive of energy security that requires member-states to enhance stability through energy security both through supply and demand. The European Energy Security Strategy established a system of pillars that was designed to increase overall energy security through a multidimensional approach. The effectiveness of EU energy policy is a critical issue that must be examined in order to establish that European energy security policy can be used as an effective countermeasure to Russian energy coercion and initiatives.
Master of Arts
This study focused on energy security policies in the European Union as a countermeasure to energy coercion. While this project sought to identify the effectiveness of the EU’s current policy, there were two outcomes. First, the thesis provided strong evidence to support that EU energy security policy is an effective countermeasure against energy coercion tactics. The second outcome was a model that enables the analysis of policy implementation in Europe. Topics discussed throughout this thesis include: Russian energy strategy, EU energy security policy, energy efficiency, and policy implementation. This study ultimately focused on the European Energy Security Strategy, which established a system of pillars that was designed to increase overall energy security through a multidimensional approach. The importance lies in the effectiveness of EU energy policy as a critical issue that must be examined to establish that European energy security policy can be used as an effective countermeasure to Russian energy coercion and initiatives.

In order to cope with the changing climate, there will be a need for mitigating transformations of a scope, speed and magnitude that are unprecedented in human history, but the consensus- and market-driven approach is inhibiting this transformation. This thesis reviews how various discourses and debates on energy policy within Swedish governments have changed between 1974 and 2017, through the lenses of energy security and depoliticisation, and how a better understanding of these debates and discourses may inform the impending large-scale transformation required to meet the challenge of climate change. Some of the main findings are that (1) nuclear power and the result of the nuclear power referendum have been decisive for energy policy, and that nuclear power will remain of vital importance in the twenty-first century. (2) Energy has become increasingly depoliticised since the 1980s, ensuing the referendum on nuclear power. (3) The discourse on energy security has shifted towards market-based solutions: in the 2000s, climate change is to be mitigated through consumer- oriented solutions such as green certificates. Through privatisation, it essentially has become up to the consumer, deciding whether to participate in mitigation of climate change.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2003.
Thesis advisor(s): Robert E. Looney, Maria Rasmussen. Includes bibliographical references (p. 55-57). Also available online.

Public concern about energy-related environmental damage has put pressure on governments to enhance abatement policies. This has in turn led to increasing demands for information about and analysis of expected and optimal levels of environmental quality, and the means of influencing these levels. Energy demand modelling can act as a valuable tool in the production of this information, particularly where it relates to future levels of environmental quality and to how policy intervention can alter constraints facing consumers in order to achieve desired levels. The thesis focuses on two features of energy demand analysis. First, major developments in dynamic econometrics, and in particular the cointegration approach, have enabled energy demand modellers to incorporate long run equilibrating relationships between energy use and its main determinants, such as economic activity and relative prices, within a dynamic framework. Second, the existence of a diverse market for energy both in terms of the fuels used and the users suggests that energy demand should be analysed at a disaggregated level. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether disaggregated dynamic energy demand modelling can provide additional valuable information for the formulation of environmental policy. The core of the thesis takes the form of six separate papers: three review papers link dynamic energy demand modelling with environmental policy and three case study papers use disaggregated dynamic energy demand modelling to examine aspects of future United Kingdom energy-related environmental quality and how it can be altered through changing the constraints facing consumers. While theory and traditional econometrics have provided useful information about energy consumption behaviour, the introduction of the cointegration approach and the error correction model are enabling economists to estimate more reliably the long run relationships between energy demand and its main determinants, and the gradual adjustment of consumers towards equilibrium consumption levels after a disequilibrating disturbance. This new information is giving a greater understanding of how to achieve desired future environmental quality levels. The heterogeneous nature of energy use, both in terms of the fuels used and their users, indicates that the accuracy of elasticity estimates and, thus, the quality of information they can provide for environmental policy might be improved through the disaggregation of dynamic energy demand modelling. Employing the cointegration approach and sectoral and fuel specific error correction models to generate estimates of income, three separate papers provide evidence in support of this argument. Individually, these papers provide information about sectoral and fuel specific elasticities, about how residential users alter their behaviour as economic constraints change and about how certain car users alter their fuel consumption patterns when provided with adverse environmental publicity about fuels. Together, these papers suggest that there exists considerable variation in income and real price elasticities between sectors and fuels, and that using the estimates generated by such disaggregated dynamic models will provide greater accuracy than aggregated and static models. These variations are of particular importance to environmental policy makers because of the difference in environmental impact associated with different fuels. The thesis, therefore, finds that, by generating more detailed and reliable elasticity estimates, disaggregated dynamic energy demand models provide new and valuable insights for the formulation of environmental policy. It concludes that disaggregated dynamic energy demand modelling will form an increasing share of the models used for environmental forecasts and policy analysis - although the overall interest in this area of research may shift as levels of certain energy-related environmental indicators improve (eg carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides) and others worsen (eg volatile organic compounds and PM10). The thesis suggests that considerable refinements in energy demand modelling can be made, both in the methods used and in the focus of empirical studies, which will lead to further improvements in the formulation of environmental policy.

Energy “sustainability” and energy supply have again emerged as central public policy issues and are at the intersection of the economic, environmental, and security challenges facing the nation and the world. The goal of significantly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with energy production and consumption, while maintaining affordable and reliable energy supplies, is one of the most important issues. Among the strategies for achieving this goal, increasing the efficiency of energy consumption in buildings is being emphasized to a degree not seen since the 1970s. “End-use” efficiency is the core of the State of California’s landmark effort to reduce its GHG emissions, of other state and local climate-change initiatives, and is emphasized in emerging federal GHG abatement legislation. Both economic and engineering methods are used to analyze energy efficiency, but the two paradigms provide different perspectives on the market and technological factors that affect the diffusion of energy efficiency. These disparate perspectives influence what is considered the appropriate role and design of public policy for leveraging not just efficient end-use technology, but other sustainable energy technologies. We review the two approaches and their current roles in the GHG policy process by describing, for illustrative purposes, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s assessment of energy efficiency in the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 Discussion Draft. We highlight opportunities and needs for improved coordination between the engineering, economic and policy communities. Our view is that a better understanding of disciplinary differences and complementarities in perspectives and analytical methods between these communities will benefit the climate change policy process.

This paper proposes a national energy efficiency policy to go along with the Development Plan of the State of Kuwait 2015–2020. Obstacles hindering the energy savings including, the general consensus of government officials, securing national energy funds, engaging various stakeholders, setting targets and establishing benchmarks and legal framework to monitor and gage progress are discussed. A SWOT analysis is conducted to arrive at short term (5 years) and long term (15 years) milestones for the policy roadmap needed to achieve optimum potential saving. Compared with the present consumption pattern (business as usual), primary energy saving will reach 2.4% by 2020 and extending to 30% saving by 2035. This saving target is the result of analyzing various policy scenarios through the application of energy conservation code, building energy audits, appliance labeling, building labeling, smart building energy monitoring and control, vehicle energy labeling, and electric vehicles.

European Union countries (EU), because they have to import a large portion of the consumed energy, on the one hand are trying to develop effective energy consumption, and on the other hand to increase their share of renewable energy sources in total energy consumption. In this context, the European Commission, published "2017 Progress Report" about renewable energy sources in the framework of EU 2020 Renewable Energy Targets". In this report, it is indicated that the share of renewable energy sources in final energy consumption has been increased to 16,4% and with regards to renewable energy sources, a vast majority of EU countries are compatible with their 2020 targets. The EU's policy towards renewable energy sources supports the "Energy Union Action Plan" in five categories: Energy security, market integration, energy efficiency, decarbonization and innovation. For instance, within the framework of energy security, the increase in EU renewable energy sources saved 16 billion Euros in fossil fuel imports in 2015. In accordance with "Clean Energy Package for Europe", emphasized the importance of providing cheap energy to the countries within EU market. Greenhouse gas emissions have declined with consuming renewable energy sources. The purpose of this study is to provide the latest developments in long-standing renewable energy policies in the EU and Turkey comparatively. In this context, first, the Turkey's renewable energy policies will be studied comparatively, thereafter, the effectiveness of these policies in the EU and Turkey will be investigated.

The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454) introduces a combined federal standard for efficiency and renewable electricity. This standard requires utilities to supply a portion of their customer’s demand using energy efficiency measures and renewable electricity generation. (1) This manuscript discusses an analysis conducted on the effect of H.R. 2454 on Texas’s electricity generation mix. In order to benchmark the net opportunity for energy efficiency, this analysis includes the historical trends in electricity consumption by sector and per capita for two states, Texas and California. This manuscript contains discussion on findings in two key areas. First, the overall consumption patterns seen historically in Texas compared to California including key differences found in each sector: residential, industrial and commercial/other. Second, the factors that contributed to these patterns including policy mechanisms, technological advances, and shifts in industry that contributed to these patterns. These findings are then applied to electricity consumption and generation mix projections in Texas. Evaluating these projections reveals the potential environmental impacts of H.R. 2454 on Texas.

Sustainable development of Chinese economy in 21st century will mainly rely on self-supply of clean energy with indigenous natural resources. The burden of current coal-dominant energy mix and the environmental stress due to energy consumptions has led nuclear power to be an indispensable choice for further expanding electricity generation capacity in China and for reducing greenhouse effect gases emission. The application of nuclear energy in producing substitutive fuels for road transportation vehicles will also be of importance in future China’s sustainable energy strategy. This paper illustrates the current status of China’s energy supply and the energy demand required for establishing a harmonic and prosperous society in China. In fact China’s energy market faces following three major challenges, namely (1) gaps between energy supply and demand; (2) low efficiency in energy utilization, and (3) severe environmental pollution. This study emphasizes that China should implement sustainable energy development policy and pay great attention to the construction of energy saving recycle economy. Based on current forecast, the nuclear energy development in China will encounter a high-speed track. The demand for crude oil will reach 400–450 million tons in 2020 in which Chinese indigenous production will remain 180 million tons. The increase of the expected crude oil will be about 150 million tons on the basis of 117 million tons of imported oil in 2004 with the time span of 15 years. This demand increase of crude oil certainly will influence China’s energy supply security and to find the substitution will be a big challenge to Chinese energy industry. This study illustrates an analysis of the market demands to future hydrogen economy of China. Based on current status of technology development of HTGR in China, this study describes a road of hydrogen production with nuclear energy. The possible technology choices in relation to a number of types of nuclear reactors are compared and assessed. The analysis shows that only high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) and sodium fast breed reactor might be available in China in 2020 for hydrogen production. Further development of very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) and gas-cooled fast reactor (GCFR) is necessary to ensure China’s future capability of hydrogen production with nuclear energy as the primary energy. It is obvious that hydrogen production with high efficient nuclear energy will be a suitable strategic technology road, through which future clean vehicles burning hydrogen fuel cells will become dominant in future Chinese transportation industry and will play sound role in ensuring future energy security of China and the sustainable prosperity of Chinese people.

Petroleum-based conventional fuels dominate the transportation sector due to simple economics. Per unit of energy, few fuels can rival gasoline and diesel in terms of total cost of ownership to the consumer. While some fuels, such as natural gas and electricity, offer lower fuel costs and/or higher vehicle efficiencies than conventional fuels, the fuel price differentials may not be sufficient to offset the higher initial costs of the vehicles, especially if petroleum prices are low. Even when total costs of ownership are similar or slightly lower for alternative fuels than conventional fuels, differences in attributes, such as vehicle range, fueling time, cargo space, vehicle availability, and fuel availability, and consumer loss aversion suggest that more substantial differences in costs are required before consumers are willing to adopt the alternatives. In order for the transportation sector to achieve greater energy sustainability, the traditional economic paradigm for the vehicle purchase decision must expand to incorporate the true benefits of alternatives to conventional fuels, namely the societal benefits of increased energy security, lower criteria pollutant emissions, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. These benefits are not purely economic and yet are crucial to the future of transportation. To capture these benefits in the economic scheme, the societal costs of transportation fuels to the U.S. have been monetized according to measurable impacts. For energy security, the costs are tied to decreased economic output, loss of national gross product, economic strain and volatility, oil supply shocks and price spikes, supply disruption, and import costs. For criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, the costs are tied to human health impacts, property damage, loss of agricultural productivity, and destruction of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These societal costs then applied to the use of specific fuels in two representative market segments, representing distinct applications, duty cycles, fuel consumption, and vehicle lifetime. Incorporating the monetized societal costs of transportation fuels in the total costs of ownership enables a fair comparison that reflects the benefits of alternatives to conventional fuels. As a result, these societal costs provide a justifiable framework for a real discussion on incentives and the direction of energy policy, beyond the mere objective of low fuel prices that has pervaded policy discussions to date.

Transportation fuels are heavily dominated by the use of petroleum, but concerns over oil depletion (e.g., peak oil), energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum combustion are driving the search for alternatives. As we look to shift away from petroleum-based transportation fuels, most options consume and withdraw more water during their life cycle. Thus, shifting to alternative fuel and energy supplies for transportation will likely increase water use for the transportation sector. Previous work suggests that water consumption for transportation could reach 10% of total U.S. water consumption when meeting the Federal Renewable Fuels Standard mandate at modest irrigation levels for feedstock crops (corn, cellulosic grasses) in combination with other alternative fuels and vehicle technologies (electric vehicles, natural gas vehicles, etc.), but more refined analysis is needed. It is important to understand when and where these new water demands for transportation are anticipated to occur. This paper presents results from simulations of the U.S. 9-region (EPAUS9r) MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) integrated energy systems model for mapping the changes in water withdrawal and consumption during a transition to a low carbon-emitting U.S. transportation fleet. The advantage of using a bottom-up, multi-sector model like MARKAL is the ability to look at consistent scenarios for the full energy system, and endogenously capture interactions between different sectors (e.g. electric power production, biorefineries, and the LDV fleet). MARKAL can simulate a baseline scenario driven by assumptions for biomass feedstock and fossil resource costs and availability, as well as the costs of converting those resources to liquid fuels and electricity. We investigate alternative scenarios both with and without carbon constraints, while varying the pace of vehicle electrification. We compare these scenarios to assess regional differences in water needs as well as aggregate water demand for transportation energy, and how those trade off against greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Our results indicate that the regional water demands and interregional transfers of embodied water could be significant as the light-duty vehicle fleet moves away from petroleum-based fuels, with exports of embodied water on the order of hundreds of billion gallons of water per year for ethanol coming from the Midwest. Interregional transfers of water embodied in electricity may also reach tens of billion gallons of water per year. However, these water requirements will vary substantially based on the light-duty vehicle mix, carbon policy, electric power generation mix, biofuel production levels, and feedstock characteristics.

Energy is one of the fields that innovation is to be speeded up regarding requirements and geopolitical position of Turkey. However, as a result of natural consequence of unplanned and incorrect energy policies, dependency rate of consumed energy of Turkey has reached out a rate of 72 percent. Since need to energy is increasingly growing and a large part of consumed energy is imported, dependency seems to continue to increase. Toward this end, studies related to reducing foreign dependency on energy, the largest input of manufacturing industry in Turkey, are reviewed and discussed with a literature survey methodology. And policy recommendations concerning energy supply security are made. Renewable energy has been attached great importance worldwide as well as nationwide because of providing reliable energy regarding economy, policy, and environment. In order to meet the increasing electricity needs of Turkey as a developing country; the number of facilities on renewable energy are also growing. Domestic production of equipment for renewable energy producing and integrating those into conventional system is of high importance because of energy supply security and sustaining reserves as well as reducing foreign dependency.

Despite the increasing attention paid to energy security and the continuously broadening scope of the field, the perspective of energy importing countries (i.e., supply security) has overshadowed that of exporters, who seek to ensure demand security. As official statements and policy documents illustrate, major energy exporters and relevant international organizations realize the significance of energy demand security for their economies and global markets.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This report describes the effects of climate change for Finland from the view of comprehensive security. The report examines both direct and indirect climate security risks as well as transition risks related to climate change mitigation. The report is based on previous research and expert interviews. Direct security risks refer to the immediate risks caused by the changing nature of natural hazards. These include the risks to critical infrastructure and energy systems, the logistics system, health and food security. Indirect security risks relate to the potential economic, political and geopolitical impacts of climate change. Climate change can affect global migration, increase conflict risk, and cause social tensions and inequality. Transition risks are related to economic and technological changes in energy transition, as well as political and geopolitical tensions and social problems caused by climate change mitigation policies. Reducing the use of fossil fuels can result in domestic and foreign policy tensions and economic pressure especially in locations dependent on fossil fuels. Political tension can also increase the risks associated with hybrid and information warfare. The security effects of climate change affect all sectors of society and the Finnish comprehensive security model should be utilized in preparing for them. In the short run, the most substantial arising climate change related security risks in Finland are likely to occur through indirect or transition risks. Finland, similar to other wealthy countries, has better technological, economic and institutional conditions to deal with the problems and risks posed by climate change than many other countries. However, this requires political will and focus on risk reduction and management.

This research paper provides a regional review of the state of electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), focusing on installed capacity, electricity generation, the growth of renewable energy, electricity consumption, government investment, public financial flows, and several major initiatives. The study contrasts electrification between 1990 and 2010 with recent efforts and identifies countries that are consistently making progress and those that lag. The analyses show signs of progress on scaling up SSA power infrastructure and increasing electricity access, particularly in the Eastern and Western sub-regions. The installed generation capacity expanded at an average rate of 2.43 GW/year between 2005 and 2015. Renewable energy is growing, particularly solar, wind, and geothermal; about 9.7 GW of renewable energy capacity was installed between 2010 and 2016. Over this period, the net electricity generation in SSA increased at 9.1 TWh/year, more than double the historical average growth of 4.02 TWh/year (1990–2010). In general, the study found that rates of electrification across the entire region are more than twice the historical rates, and an average of at least 26 million people are now gaining access to electricity yearly. Nevertheless, progress is uneven across SSA. As of 2016, almost half of the population without electricity access live in Nigeria, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. Quantitative analysis suggests that about 70 million people in SSA would have to gain access every year from 2017 to achieve universal access by 2030. Overall, SSA countries with national programs on energy access supported by policy/regulatory framework and infrastructure investment are making progress.