Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Energy policy'

Energy Security is a necessity of modern society and as technology and society evolve so does the requirement to secure energy to provide stability for state governments. Europe is in a transition period of increasing cohesion and integration, and Russia is leveraging its natural resources to conduct disruption campaigns coupled with energy coercion tactics. The EU is developing and has implemented policies conducive of energy security that requires member-states to enhance stability through energy security both through supply and demand. The European Energy Security Strategy established a system of pillars that was designed to increase overall energy security through a multidimensional approach. The effectiveness of EU energy policy is a critical issue that must be examined in order to establish that European energy security policy can be used as an effective countermeasure to Russian energy coercion and initiatives.
Master of Arts
This study focused on energy security policies in the European Union as a countermeasure to energy coercion. While this project sought to identify the effectiveness of the EU’s current policy, there were two outcomes. First, the thesis provided strong evidence to support that EU energy security policy is an effective countermeasure against energy coercion tactics. The second outcome was a model that enables the analysis of policy implementation in Europe. Topics discussed throughout this thesis include: Russian energy strategy, EU energy security policy, energy efficiency, and policy implementation. This study ultimately focused on the European Energy Security Strategy, which established a system of pillars that was designed to increase overall energy security through a multidimensional approach. The importance lies in the effectiveness of EU energy policy as a critical issue that must be examined to establish that European energy security policy can be used as an effective countermeasure to Russian energy coercion and initiatives.

This thesis analyses EU energy policy from a comparative agenda-setting perspective providing new theoretical and empirical insights into EU energy policy-making. Although two of the founding treaties of the European Communities covered the coal and nuclear sectors, the European Union has struggled ever since to establish itself in the field of energy policy. In particular, it failed to include an explicit Community competence on energy in Community primary law in subsequent treaty revisions – with the exception of the new Title XX on Energy introduced with the Lisbon Treaty. Nonetheless the European Union has established itself as an important player in European energy policy, as reflected in EU directives on energy market liberalisation, energy efficiency standards and targets for renewable energy sources. At the same time, policymakers at various levels, business, NGOs and experts agree that more EU energy policy is needed to face current and future transnational policy challenges, notably, climate change and energy security. This has led to numerous studies with policy recommendations on EU level action in the field of energy policy. By contrast, very few studies have analysed the drivers and barriers of EU energy policy-making and factors that can explain policy change and stability. Yet a better understanding of EU energy policy-making is a necessary precondition for the development of appropriate policy recommendations. This thesis provides an analysis of EU energy policy-making by identifying factors that can explain change and stability from an agenda-setting perspective. Drawing upon EU studies and agenda-setting literature the analysis distinguishes between two different agenda-setting routes, high and low politics, along the key stages of an issue career: initiation, specification, expansion and entrance. It accounts for the following key variables in EU agenda-setting: contextual factors, policy entrepreneurs, issue definition, and institutional venues. These are applied to two contrasting case studies of EU energy policy: nuclear energy and renewable energy. The study shows how and why Community initiatives failed in an institutionally ‘strong' EU energy policy arena under Euratom, but succeeded in the field of renewable energy under the EC Treaty.

Renewable energy sources support policy employs a great variety of economic tools in order to promote the use of green energy. Following thesis at first offers an overview and economic insight into the most applied ones. Since the majority of the European Union Member States nowadays prefer so-called feed-in tariffs schemes we proceed in-depth analysis of effectiveness of that instrument in electricity sector in four selected European countries Austria, Czech Republic, Germany and Spain. An effectiveness indicator which compares marginal electricity generation potential with additional realizable potential of particular renewable energy sources technology is used for that analysis. The results clearly show that the best practice of feed-in tariff design is pursued in Germany where the special set of tariff design and adjustment measures is applied.

As is now generally accepted, climate change and environmental degradation has largely been triggered by carbon emissions and energy modeling for policy analysis has therefore attained renewed urgency. It is important for governments to satisfy emission targets and timetables set down by international agreements without disregarding macroeconomic concerns and restrictions. In this study, we present a large-scale nonlinear optimization model that allows the analysis of macroeconomic and multi-sectoral energy policies in respect of technological and environmental options and scenarios. The model consists of a detailed representation of energy activities and disaggregates the rest of the economy into five main sectors. Economy-wide solutions are obtained by computing a utility maximizing aggregate consumption bundle on the part of a representative household. Intersectoral and foreign transaction balances are maintained using a modified accounting matrix. The model also computes the impact on macroeconomic variables of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission strategies and abatement schemes. As such the model is capable of producing solutions that can be used to benchmark regulatory instruments and policies. Several scenarios are presented for the case of Turkey in which the impact of a nuclear power programme and power generation coupled with carbon-capture-and-storage schemes are investigated as well as setting quotas on total and sectoral GHG emissions.

Motivated by global climate change, enhancing innovation systems for energy technologies is seen as one of the largest public policy challenges of the near future. The role of policy in enhancing energy innovation systems takes several forms: public provision of research and develop funding, facilitating the private sector’s capability to develop new technologies, and creating incentives for private actors to adopt innovative and appropriate technologies. This dissertation explores research questions that span this range of policies to develop insights in how energy technology innovation policy can be reformed in the face of climate change. The first chapter of this dissertation explores how decision making to allocate public research and development funding could be improved through the integration of expert technology forecasts. I present a framework to evaluate and optimize the U.S. Department of Energy’s research and development portfolio of applied energy projects, accounting for spillovers from technical complimentary and competition for the same market share. This project integrates one of the largest and most comprehensive sets of expert elicitations on energy technologies (Anadón et al., 2014b) in a benefit evaluation framework. This work entailed developing a new method for probability distribution sampling that accommodates the information that can be provided by expert elicitations. The results of this project show that public research and development in energy storage and solar photovoltaic technologies has the greatest marginal returns to economic surplus, but the methodology developed in this chapter is broadly applicable to other public and private R&D-sponsoring organizations. The second chapter of this dissertation explores how policies to transfer technologies from federally funded research laboratories to commercialization partners, largely private firms, create knowledge spillovers that lead to further innovation. In this chapter, I study the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Laboratories, and provide the first quantitative evidence that technology transfer agreements at the Labs lead to greatly increased rates of innovation spillovers. This chapter also makes a key methodological contribution by introducing a technique to utilize automated text analysis in an empirical matching design that is broadly applicable to other types of social science studies. This work has important implications for how policies should be designed to maximize the social benefits of the $125 billion in annual federal funding allocated to research and development and the extent to which private firms can benefit from technology partnerships with the government. The final chapter of this dissertation explores the effectiveness of international policy to facilitate the deployment of low-emitting energy technologies in developing countries. Together with Joern Huenteler, I examine wind energy deployment in China supported through international climate finance flows under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism. Utilizing a project-level financial model of wind energy projects parameterized with high-resolution observations of Chinese wind speeds, we find that the environmental benefits of projects financed under the Clean Development Mechanism are substantially lower than reported, as many Chinese wind projects would have been built without the Mechanism’s support, and thus do not represent additional clean energy generation. Together, the essays in this dissertation suggest several limitations of energy technology innovation policy and areas for reform. Public funds for energy research and development could be made more effective if decision making approaches were better grounded in available technical expertise and developed in framework that captures the important interactions of technologies in a research and development portfolio. The first chapter of this dissertation suggests a politically feasible path towards this type of reform. Policies to “unlock” publicly sponsored inventions from the organizations that develop them have broad impact on private sector innovation. These policies multiply the effect of public research and development funds, but should be strengthened to more rapidly advance the scientific frontier. The second chapter of this dissertation provides some of the first quantitative evidence to support reform in this area. Finally, international policies to facilitate the deployment of climate-friendly technologies in developing countries face serious implementation challenges. The current paradigm of utilizing carbon markets to fund individual projects that would not have otherwise occurred has failed to encourage energy technology deployment in one of the sectors with the greatest experience with such policies. The third chapter of this dissertation suggests that this failure has been largely due to poorly designed procedural rules, but options for reform are available. Mitigation of global climate change will require broad policy response across the full range of scales, sectors, and policy spheres. Undoubtedly, climate mitigation will result in widespread transformation of energy systems. This dissertation focuses on the role of innovation policy in accelerating the transformation of these systems. The range of policies studied in this dissertation can make climate change mitigation more politically feasible and more cost effective by expanding the set of technological choices available to public and private actors faced with incentives and requirements to lower their greenhouse gas emissions to collectively safe levels.
Public Policy

This work is investigating how energy policy instruments can be depicted explicitly in DiDo, the re-gional agent-based energy transition model for the Netherlands designed by the TNO. Within DiDo the transition of the energy system is considered a result of individual transformations of the different stake-holders in the system. The focus of this work lies on household agents, their investment decision making and the effects of policy instruments on this microeconomic level. Bounded rationality, heuristics and individual attitudes and perceptions are identified to play a relevant role when investing in energy assets and thus an explicit parameterization of these particularities of human behavior is proposed. The model-ing of the investment decision is following a rational approach originating from finance that features the Markowitz portfolio optimization, which is relying on the return of investments (ROI) in assets. In order to incorporate behavioral aspects and perceptions into this rational frame, the concept of subjective ROI is introduced. Arising from recent developments in behavioral economics, this concept is in line with the observations made on financial markets that challenge the long maintained assumption of normally dis-tributed ROI distributions. Finally, surveying individual willingness to pay for energy assets and testing the correlation with behavioral and policy instrument aspects using a regression analysis is proposed as the subsequent methodological step.
Det här arbetet undersöker hur energipolitiska instrument kan avbildas uttryckligen i DiDo, den regionala agentbaserade energitransitionsmodellen för Nederländerna, designad av TNO. Inom DiDo anses skiftet av energisystemet vara ett resultat av individuella omvandlingar av de olika intressenterna i systemet. Inriktningen för detta arbete låg på hushållsmedlemmar, deras investeringsbeslutsfattande och effekterna av politiska instrument på denna mikroekonomiska nivå. Bundet rationalitet, heuristik och individuella attityder och uppfattningar identifierades för att spela en relevant roll när man investerar i energitillgångar och därmed föreslagits en explicit parametresering av dessa särdrag av mänskligt beteende. Modelleringen av investeringsbeslutet följer en rationell strategi som härrör från finansiering som använder Markowitz-portfölje optimering, som är beroende av avkastning av investeringar (ROI) i tillgångar. För att integrera beteendeaspekter och uppfattningar i denna rationella ram introduceras koncept av subjektivt ROI. På grund av den senaste utvecklingen inom beteendeekonomin ligger detta koncept i linje med observationerna på de finansiella marknaderna som utmanar det gammalt antagna-det om normalt fördelade avkastnings fördelningar. Slutligen föreslås undersökning av individuell vilja att betala för energitillgångar och testa korrelationen med beteendemässiga och politiska instrumentaspekter med hjälp av en regressionsanalys som det efterföljande metodologiska steget.

In order to cope with the changing climate, there will be a need for mitigating transformations of a scope, speed and magnitude that are unprecedented in human history, but the consensus- and market-driven approach is inhibiting this transformation. This thesis reviews how various discourses and debates on energy policy within Swedish governments have changed between 1974 and 2017, through the lenses of energy security and depoliticisation, and how a better understanding of these debates and discourses may inform the impending large-scale transformation required to meet the challenge of climate change. Some of the main findings are that (1) nuclear power and the result of the nuclear power referendum have been decisive for energy policy, and that nuclear power will remain of vital importance in the twenty-first century. (2) Energy has become increasingly depoliticised since the 1980s, ensuing the referendum on nuclear power. (3) The discourse on energy security has shifted towards market-based solutions: in the 2000s, climate change is to be mitigated through consumer- oriented solutions such as green certificates. Through privatisation, it essentially has become up to the consumer, deciding whether to participate in mitigation of climate change.

This work is investigating how energy policy instruments can be depicted explicitly in DiDo, the regionalagent-based energy transition model for the Netherlands designed by the TNO. Within DiDo the transition of the energy system is considered a result of individual transformations of the different stakeholders in the system. The focus of this work lies on household agents, their investment decision making and the effects of policy instruments on this microeconomic level. Bounded rationality, heuristics and individual attitudes and perceptions are identified to play a relevant role when investing in energy assets and thus an explicit parameterization of these particularities of human behavior is proposed. The modeling of the investment decision is following a rational approach originating from finance that features the Markowitz portfolio optimization, which is relying on the return of investments (ROI) in assets. In order to incorporate behavioral aspects and perceptions into this rational frame, the concept of subjective ROI is introduced. Arising from recent developments in behavioral economics, this concept is in line with the observations made on financial markets that challenge the long maintained assumption of normally distributed ROI distributions. Finally, surveying individual willingness to pay for energy assets and testing the correlation with behavioral and policy instrument aspects using a regression analysis is proposed as the subsequent methodological step.
Det här arbetet undersöker hur energipolitiska instrument kan avbildas uttryckligen i DiDo, den regionala agentbaserade energitransitionsmodellen för Nederländerna, designad av TNO. Inom DiDo anses skiftet av energisystemet vara ett resultat av individuella omvandlingar av de olika intressenterna i systemet. Inriktningen för detta arbete låg på hushållsmedlemmar, deras investeringsbeslutsfattande och effekterna av politiska instrument på denna mikroekonomiska nivå. Bundet rationalitet, heuristik och individuella attityder och uppfattningar identifierades för att spela en relevant roll när man investerar i energitillåangar och därmed föreslagits en explicit parametresering av dessa särdrag av mänskligt beteende. Modelleringen av investeringsbeslutet följer en rationell strategi som härrör från finansiering som använder Markowitz-portföljeoptimering, som är beroende av avkastning av investeringar (ROI) i tillgångar. För att integrera beteendeaspekter och uppfattningar i denna rationella ram introduceras koncept av subjektivt ROI. På grund av den senaste utvecklingen inom beteendeekonomin ligger detta koncept i linje med observationerna på de finansiella marknaderna som utmanar det gammalt antagandet om normalt fördelade avkastningsfördelningar. Slutligen freslås undersökning av individuell vilja att betala för energitillgångar och testa korrelationen med beteendemässiga och politiska instrumentaspekter med hjälp av en regressionsanalys som det efterföljande metodologiska steget.

Il mio elaborato tratta dell'emirato del Qatar e di come e fino a che punto le risorse energetiche, di cui il Qatar abbonda, possano influenzare le proprie politiche estere. Nello specifico il mio lavoro si divide in tre principali capitoli. Il primo capitolo, di carattere storico, riporta le varie fasi che l’emirato ha attraversato per affermarsi come Stato indipendente, passando da un’economia basata solo sul commercio di perle nel Golfo Persico ad un’economia leader nel settore energetico mondiale. Il secondo capitolo, di carattere economico, analizza lo sviluppo e lo stato attuale del settore energetico del Qatar, in particolare del petrolio, del gas e dei prodotti petrolchimici. Il terzo capitolo del mio elaborato prevede invece un’analisi di come le politiche energetiche siano strettamente correlate alle politiche estere, in particolare nel caso di un Paese di piccole dimensioni come il Qatar. A dimostrazione di ciò, analizzerò prima le relazioni tra Qatar e Gulf Cooperation Council (con cui il Qatar condivide il Dolphin Project, relativo alla vendita e trasporto di gas ai Paesi del Golfo), poi tra Qatar e Repubblica Islamica dell’Iran (con cui spartisce il più grande più grande giacimento mondiale di gas naturale, denominato North Dome/South Pars e contenente in totale circa 1,800 milioni di miliardi di piedi cubici di gas non-associato), ed infine tra Qatar e Paesi dell’Asia, quali Giappone, India, Cina e Corea del Sud (con i quali il Qatar ha accordi commerciali a breve e lungo termine per la vendita di gas).

Aquesta tesi investiga les implicacions de la complexitat per a la producció de models de sistemes social-ecològics i per a la interfície ciència-política. Em centre en la política energètica a la Unió Europea (UE), a través d’estudis de casos desenvolupats dins del projecte MAGIC d’Horitzó 2020. A través d’una sèrie d’estudis de casos, desenvolupo les eines necessàries per descriure els sistemes energètics a diverses escales, qüestiono si les narratives que sustenten la política energètica de la UE són adequades per atendre les seves preocupacions i inspecciono el paper que juga el món acadèmic en la configuració d’aquestes narratives. Les implicacions metodològiques de la modelització de sistemes energètics a la interfície ciència-política s’aborden mitjançant un estudi de cas del sector energètic de Catalunya. Basant-se en la teoria de la jerarquia, el sistema energètic de la regió es descriu en termes estructurals i en termes funcionals, mostrant com una descripció funcional és útil per guiar les qüestions de política. Mitjançant la cartografia de les dimensions del nexe entre nivells jeràrquics, aquest primer estudi de cas proporciona les eines per generar avaluacions de nexes de manera oberta i transparent. En el segon cas pràctic, en col·laboració amb Zora Kovacic, em centro en la seguretat energètica, un dels pilars de la Unió Energètica de la UE. Inspeccionant les múltiples definicions i dimensions relacionades amb la seguretat energètica a la literatura acadèmica, argumentem que l’ambigüitat del terme és funcional en la formulació de polítiques i no és una qüestió que s’hagi de resoldre amb una major claredat definicional. Més aviat, l’ambigüitat està incrustada en la complexitat. Això suggereix que la producció de definicions i indicadors de seguretat energètica en el món acadèmic pot no ser útil per a les polítiques. El tercer estudi de cas analitza les narratives que envolten els vehicles elèctrics a la UE. Les narratives de polítiques dels documents de la UE s’identifiquen mitjançant una anàlisi de text i s’assignen a nivells jeràrquics. S’introdueix una taxonomia per classificar les narratives polítiques, distingint entre narratives normatives, narratives de justificació i narratives explicatives. Mitjançant una revisió d’estudis i informes existents, s’inspecciona la qualitat de la constel·lació de narratives que envolten els vehicles elèctrics, centrant-se en la relació entre les narratives normatives i de justificació. Els resultats mostren com aquesta relació és incerta en el millor dels casos. Centrant-se en el paper que juga la ciència en la informació de les polítiques, assenyalen la necessitat de reconèixer la manera en què les narratives de polítiques afecten i són afectades per les acadèmiques. El quart i més recent estudi de cas és una ampliació del primer, presentat aquí com a treball exploratori en curs. Els metabolismes energètics d’Espanya, Suècia i la UE es descriuen a través d’holarquies, incloent cada branca del sistema energètic (electricitat, calor, gas i combustibles). Aquest mapatge a gran escala s’utilitza per debatre dos temes centrals en la política energètica de la UE: la descarbonització i l’externalització. Poso en dubte les narratives de descarbonització de la UE i subratllo el coneixement incòmode sobre la dependència del sector energètic de la UE en les importacions.
Esta tesis investiga las implicaciones de la complejidad para la producción de modelos de sistemas social-ecológicos y para la interfaz ciencia-política. Me centro en la política energética en la Unión Europea (UE), a través de estudios de casos desarrollados dentro del proyecto MAGIC de Horizonte 2020. A través de una serie de estudios de casos, desarrollo las herramientas necesarias para describir los sistemas energéticos a diversas escalas, cuestiono si las narrativas que sustentan la política energética de la UE son adecuadas para atender sus preocupaciones e inspeccionar el papel que juega el mundo académico en la configuración de estas narrativas. Las implicaciones metodológicas de la modelización de sistemas energéticos en la interfaz ciencia-política se abordan mediante un estudio de caso del sector energético de Cataluña. Basándose en la teoría de la jerarquía, el sistema energético de la región se describe en términos estructurales y en términos funcionales, mostrando como una descripción funcional es útil para guiar las cuestiones de política. Mediante la cartografía de las dimensiones del nexo entre niveles jerárquicos, este primer estudio de caso proporciona las herramientas para generar evaluaciones de nexos de manera abierta y transparente. En el segundo caso práctico, en colaboración con Zora Kovacic, me centro en la seguridad energética, uno de los pilares de la Unión Energética de la UE. nspeccionando las múltiples definiciones y dimensiones relacionadas con la seguridad energética en la literatura académica, argumentamos que la ambigüedad del término es funcional en la formulación de políticas y no es una cuestión que deba resolver con una mayor claridad definicional. Más bien, la ambigüedad está incrustada en la complejidad. Esto sugiere que la producción de definiciones e indicadores de seguridad energética en el mundo académico puede no ser útil para las políticas. El tercer estudio de caso analiza las narrativas que rodean los vehículos eléctricos en la UE. Las narrativas de políticas de los documentos de la UE se identifican mediante un análisis de texto y se asignan a niveles jerárquicos. Se introduce una taxonomía para clasificar las narrativas políticas, distinguiendo entre narrativas normativas, narrativas de justificación y narrativas explicativas. Mediante una revisión de estudios e informes existentes, se inspecciona la calidad de la constelación de narrativas que rodean los vehículos eléctricos, centrándose en la relación entre las narrativas normativas y de justificación. Los resultados muestran cómo esta relación es incierta en el mejor de los casos. Centrándose en el papel que juega la ciencia en la información de las políticas, señalan la necesidad de reconocer la manera en que las narrativas de políticas afectan y son afectadas por las académicas. El cuarto y más reciente estudio de caso es una ampliación del primero, presentado aquí como trabajo exploratorio en curso. Los metabolismos energéticos de España, Suecia y la UE se describen a través de holarquies, incluyendo cada rama del sistema energético (electricidad, calor, gas y combustibles). Este mapeo a gran escala se utiliza para debatir dos temas centrales en la política energética de la UE: la descarbonización y la externalización. Pongo en duda las narrativas de descarbonización de la UE y subrayo el conocimiento incómodo sobre la dependencia del sector energético de la UE en las importaciones.
This thesis investigates the implications of complexity for the production of models of social-ecological systems and for the science-policy interface. I focus on energy policy in the European Union (EU), through case studies developed within the Horizon 2020 project MAGIC. The way I refer to complexity builds on the work of Robert Rosen, who defined a complex system as one which can be described in non-equivalent and non-reducible ways. This powerful definition, which I refer to as Rosennian (or relational) complexity, calls for deep reflections on the way scientific knowledge is used to inform our image of the world and how we act upon that image. It focuses on the role played by observers in perceiving systems and in modelling them, through devices that I refer to as narratives. Narratives allow reducing the information space of complex reality into a manageable storyline which can be used to guide action, establishing causal patterns across impredicative processes operating at different scales. As such, they are central both to science and to policymaking. Narratives cannot be true or false, only adequate or obsolete with respect to the perception of a system. Through a series of case studies, I develop the tools needed to describe energy systems across multiple scales, question whether narratives underpinning EU energy policy are adequate in addressing their concerns and inspect the role played by academia in shaping those narratives. The methodological implications of modelling energy systems at the science-policy interface are addressed through a case study of Catalonia's energy sector. Building on hierarchy theory, the region's energy system is described in structural terms and in functional ones, showing how a functional description is useful in guiding policy questions. By mapping nexus dimensions across hierarchical levels, this first case study provides the tools to generate nexus assessments in open and transparent ways. In the second case study, a collaboration with Zora Kovacic, I focus on energy security, one of the pillars of the EU's Energy Union. Inspecting the multiple definitions and dimensions connected with energy security in the academic literature, we argue that the ambiguity of the term is functional in policymaking and is not a matter to be solved with increased definitional clarity. Rather, ambiguity is embedded in complexity. This suggests that the production of definitions and indicators of energy security in academia may not be useful to policy. The third case study analyses the narratives surrounding electric vehicles in the EU. Policy narratives in EU documents are identified through a text analysis and mapped across hierarchical levels. A taxonomy to classify policy narratives is introduced, making the distinction between normative narratives, justification narratives and explanation narratives. Through a review of existing studies and reports, the quality of the constellation of narratives surrounding electric vehicles is inspected, focusing on the relationship between normative and justification narratives. Results show how this relationship is uncertain at best. Focusing on the role played by science in informing policy, they point to the need of recognising the way in which policy narratives affect and are affected by academic ones. The fourth and most recent case study is an expansion of the first one, presented here as exploratory work in progress. The energy metabolisms of Spain, Sweden and the EU are described through holarchies, including each branch of the energy system (electricity, heat, gas and fuels). This multi-scale mapping is used to discuss two issues that are central to EU energy policy: decarbonisation and externalisation. I question EU decarbonisation narratives and highlight uncomfortable knowledge regarding the reliance of the EU's energy sector on imports.
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Programa de Doctorat en Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals

Thesis (M.A.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2010.
Title from electronic title page (viewed Jun. 23, 2010). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Political Science, Concentration TransAtlantic Studies." Discipline: Political Science; Department/School: Political Science.

The use of renewable energy sources in EU member states is expected to increase, leading to a more sustainable energy mix, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and a lower dependency from fossil fuels. Promoting the production of renewable energy is a topic that nowadays tops the agenda of many national and regional governments, due to three main reasons: environmental, energy security and regional development reasons, whereby the environmental reasons can be considered the driving force. The Thesis aims at distilling lessons learned from a comparative study of the policies practices in three large Member States and it analyses the relevance of the policy context for the development of the renewable energy (RE) sector. This study examines the national policies of EU member states towards the development of renewable energy, and the rationale for government intervention in this area. It analyses the different supporting instruments adopted by the three Member States and the impact that have on the development of the RE sector.

In this dissertation, we leverage predictive and prescriptive analytics to develop decision support systems to promote the use of renewable energy in society. Since electricity from renewable energy sources is still relatively expensive, there are variety of financial incentive programs available in different regions. Our research focuses on financial incentive programs and tackles two main problem: 1) how to optimally design and control hybrid renewable energy systems for residential and commercial buildings given the capacity based and performance based incentives, and 2) how to develop a model-based system for policy makers for designing optimal financial incentive programs to promote investment in net zero energy (NZE) buildings. In order to customize optimal investment and operational plans for buildings, we developed a mixed integer program (MIP). The optimization model considers the load profile and specifications of the buildings, local weather data, technology specifications and pricing, electricity tariff, and most importantly, the available financial incentives to assess the financial viability of investment in renewable energy. It is shown how the MIP model can be used in developing customized incentive policy designs and controls for renewable energy system.

This research project focuses on identifying barriers to new renewable energy electricity generation technology installations through Tasmanian local authority planning application processes. Renewable energy technologies are expected to play a key role in the move towards a low carbon economy, providing local job opportunities and energy security (International Energy Agency 2009, 3). However, a wide range of economic, institutional, technical and cultural barriers currently prevent the renewable energy sector from achieving its full potential. The private sector, research institutions and all levels of government each have key roles and responsibilities in identifying barriers and enabling support for appropriate renewable energy proposals. The Australian Government has legislated through the expanded national Renewable Energy Target (RET) to increase renewable electricity generation to 20% by the year 2020 or 45,000 gigawatt-hour (Australia Department of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency (b) 2010, par.3-4), from an estimated 7% of total consumption in 2007-2008 (Geoscience Australia 2010). Planning for increased appropriate renewable energy projects presents multiple benefits and opportunities for local communities. While each level of government has jurisdictional land use planning responsibilities, councils as the closest tier of government to the local community (International Energy Agency 2009, 19), play a central role as a local planning authority and as direct agents of change (United Kingdom Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (b) 2004, 43). To provide further clarity on the nature of the problems surrounding local renewable energy proposals, this thesis gathered information on everyday council experiences assessing renewable energy applications in Tasmania. While Tasmania has a unique history with a relatively higher proportion of renewable generation, preventing the potential of renewable energy being overlooked by including renewable energy in urban planning is a similar approach in cities throughout the world (International Energy Agency 2009, 95). To identify end goals for the renewable electricity generation sector in Tasmania the current deployment of renewable energy, key government strategies and the number and type of recent planning applications in a single locality are analysed. The public problem of how to support increased sustainable renewable energy deployment is discussed from a planning perspective, with various regulatory incentives and guidance/information policy deployment instruments (International Energy Agency 2009, 96) evaluated in the Tasmanian local government context. It is proposed that by taking a proactive evidence-based approach to energy spatial planning, consistent, equitable, transparent and timely application processes can assist local governments to deliver the widespread implementation of sustainable renewable technologies.

Global energy demand will continue to increase over the coming decades driven by economic development and population growth. In terms of final energy use, electricity is the fastest growing source of energy [1] and the electrification of the world’s energy consumption mix is expected to increase significantly from 17% in 2010 to 30% in 2050 [2]. Over the period from 2012 to 2050, a 123-150% increase in electricity demand is forecast and a substantial level of investment in electricity generation is required to meet increasing demand in the coming decades. The corresponding investment capital required during the same period is estimated to be US$19 to US$26 trillion. The electricity generation industry is a supporting pillar of economic development that has to meet social, economic and environmental goals in the regions it operates [3]. The transformation and development of the industry under such multi-dimensional goals, however, have proved to be an immense challenge. Creating a balance between energy security, equity and environmental objectives shapes the sustainability of the electricity supply system. Nonetheless, pursuing each of those objectives individually may result in a failure to achieve the others, ultimately leading to an energy trilemma. In many economies, the power generation sector has continually experienced a transition towards liberalized markets to promote economic efficiency via the introduction of competitive forces. In fact, in the sector, the efforts to meet the equity objective of the energy trilemma have commenced since the late 1980s to deliver low-cost energy to consumers and maximise social welfare. Following deregulation, a different allocation of responsibilities between government and private sectors has caused public spending in electricity generation to decline. Demand-driven price signals in wholesale and contract electricity markets drive private investments in power generation. Public policies, however, shape the mix of generation technology to ensure sustainability of the system via the achievement of environmental and security goals. Opening the sector to competition has resulted in the internalisation of investment risk in the decision-making process [4]. In addition to expected investment return, private investors make choices based upon the exposure of different generation technologies to various sources of financial and business uncertainty including, but not limited to, regulations, economic factors, input and output prices, and the volume of sales. This thesis focuses on the effect of public policy uncertainty and relative interactions on large-scale electricity generation investments. From a diverse and extensive set of public policies affecting the sector, this study concentrates on energy and climate policy instruments aiming to achieve environmentally cleaner electrical energy while upholding the security of supply and economic efficiency. This choice is not arbitrary, noticing that the electricity generation sector, globally, is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (25% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [5]). The fifth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [5] recognises that the power sector plays a crucial role in achieving mitigation targets. Although jurisdictions around the world have implemented policies to promote the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, such policies have been subject to significant changes, primarily due to the global disagreement over mechanisms to curb emissions. The frequent changes in the design and implementation of regulations are inhibiting efficient investments in the electricity generation sector. This thesis develops a decision-making framework for investments in the electricity generation sector that accounts for the effect of energy and climate policy uncertainty and their interactions, while taking the perspective of a private investor. It aims to investigate how continuing energy policy uncertainty and correlations may affect the choice and timing of investments. As such, this thesis makes its contribution in three broad steps: (1) the development of an investment decision-making model for individual investments to evaluate the effect of significant policy changes, (2) a study of the effect of political cycles and the integration of subjective information as represented by experts’ views within the model developed in step (1), and, (3) a portfolio analysis to expand the modelling framework for use in long-term strategic planning in corporate energy entities where the specific characteristics of the electricity generation sector along with policy interactions are recognised. Although, the viewpoint adopted concerns private investments, the framework developed can provide insights to policy makers regarding the effect of political uncertainty and policy interactions on energy investment decisions and the desired mix of energy technologies. This research employs a real options analysis method to develop the investment decision-making model in step (1) and (2). In contrast to the conventional investment decision-making approaches, such as the levelised cost and discounted cash flow methods used in the sector, real options methodology allows for the investigation of optimal investment timing and exercising managerial flexibilities under uncertainty. An American-style option valuation method is used for this purpose that employs a numerical dynamic programming method to solve the individual investment decisionmaking model. The real options method developed in the first two steps is integrated with a portfolio optimization framework in step (3) that views the power generation investment problem from a portfolio perspective. To demonstrate the application of the model, case studies are developed based on the relatively recent actual energy policy outcomes in Australian context. In particular, this thesis is very topical as the case studies focus on the recent changes in carbon pricing mechanism and renewable portfolio law in Australia, with further consideration over their correlation. The results of the modelling suggest that political uncertainty after the implementation of carbon pricing is detrimental to the achievement of policy objectives. Investors may defer their investment in less carbon intensive technologies. However, this effect can be mitigated by implementing higher expected carbon prices. Although political uncertainty with respect to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy may delay investments in environmentally cleaner assets, expectations over the reinstatement of carbon pricing reduce the amount of option premium to defer those decisions. The results of modelling in step (3) show how a co-existing and relatively stable renewable portfolio standard mechanism may negate the effects of carbon pricing uncertainty. Although an adequate flow of investment capital to the energy sector may be available [6] and various energy policies may exist to promote the sustainability of the energy mix, the findings of this research, however, suggest that uncertainty over the future of those policies and their resulting interactions may substantially erode the triple objectives of a sustainable energy system. The most effective remedy for this issue is commonly espoused by various stakeholders - eliminate uncertainty in policies. Nevertheless, global disagreements and opposing political agendas have proved that such an ideal solution does not exist. By modelling investor’s strategic behaviour and risk management practices, this research provides insight on the way that the impact of policy uncertainty on investment can be dampened in order to expedite the achievement of a sustainable energy system.

My dissertation seeks to analyze environmental policy using theoretical, computational, and empirical methods. In the first chapter I develop a Bayesian learning framework for damage functions in integrated assessment models that mimics how modelers have historically updated damage functions. To allow for the model to be solved in a reasonable timeframe I must use sparse grid methods for dynamic programming which are new to climate economics. I also use robust control techniques from the macroeconomics literature to capture concerns that there are errors in integrated assessment models that we will not be able to resolve in a timely fashion. Using these methodological advances, I demonstrate that the convention of updating the calibration of damage functions while maintaining a fixed functional form can backfire and reduce ex-post welfare if the damage function is misspecified like many economists believe. Moreover, accounting for misspecification concerns with robust control can exacerbate the backfire and further reduce ex-post welfare. In my second chapter I analyze the impacts of credit trading under renewable portfolio standards. Specifically, I look at how a change in one state's renewable portfolio standard can propagate through this credit channel and result in reductions in fossil fuel usage in another state. I find that a 1 MWh increase in extra-jurisdictional demand for renewable energy credits leads to a reduction in energy production derived from coal usage by 2 mmbtus and a reduction in CO₂ emissions by 0.285 metric tons. In my last chapter I develop an analytic model for renewable energy credit trading to investigate why states have peculiar trading rules for the credits. I find that, counter to conventional economic wisdom, states may actually not want to engage in credit trading. Credit trading may in fact worsen in state pollution to an extent that completely offsets any gains from trade.

Abstract The energy card in Russian Foreign Policy Since the beginning of the twentieth century, energy resources have shaped many aspects of modern life, economies and relations among states. Given the geo-strategic salience of oil and gas reserves and the growing reliance upon them, “petro-states” ( producer and exporter countries) have started to use resources as a foreign policy tool, the so called “energy weapon”, in order to obtain their strategic objectives and influence the international affairs. Since it is the today world's largest oil producer, Russia stands out as an “energy superpower” . Already during the Soviet period, Russian political leadership has pursued a policy of energy lever to reward friends and punish enemies. This “carrots and sticks” policy is fulfilled by subsidized oil and gas sales, cut-offs, disruptions, transit pipelines fees and sanctions to neighbor countries. In particular, under President Putin Russia's energy influence reached unprecedented heights, as a result of: high oil and gas prices, high export revenues, maximization of power and centralization of energy sector in the state's hands. The dissertation analyses the “energy card” in foreign policy of Russia. First of all why it is recurring in Russian history and how is linked with Russian strategic culture. Secondly, through a comparative analysis, two perceptions of Russian energy policies will be considered : the first as a purely political coercion against post- Soviet space in attempt to prevent the breakaway from Russian sphere of influence. The second one includes instead economic underpinnings in Russian foreign policy, which therefore hides commercial interests. After a brief historical background about gas disputes in Ukraine and Belarus, the feasibility and effectiveness of “stick and carrot” policy are examined, in view of two major obstacles respectively :the absolute reliance on revenue from gas and oil exports of Russian economy and the drift towards the Western umbrella. Finally, the paper will investigate the strategic goals of Russian foreign energy policy and its future projections.

Every individual, regardless of ethnicity, religion, income, etc., has the right to health. The right to health is a fundamental human right that can be further strengthened through the lens of Martha Nussbaum's central capabilities. This thesis explores how Canada's current national energy policy is focused on fossil fuel extraction and combustion, which is a leading cause in the rise in the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and changing the climate. Based on the evidence this thesis explores how, through its role in the climate crisis, the government of Canada is hindering the full enjoyment of the right to health by the Inuit, and how there is a need for a redesign in the national energy policy. A focus on climate justice is raised as the best possible focus for this redesign, in the energy policy, in order to respect the right to health of the Inuit.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2003.
Thesis advisor(s): Robert E. Looney, Maria Rasmussen. Includes bibliographical references (p. 55-57). Also available online.

This study aims to support the policymakers of Uganda to develop a sustainable and environmental friendly energy system by indicating the energy flow. An analysis of the interconnections between Climate-, Land-, Water- and Energy use (CLEWs) is conducted, and the most important connection between the hydropower and agriculture’s water use is identified. In this report, the sections energy and economy are analysed, please see “…” for a further analysis of the water- and land use. Uganda is today a country with large dependence on both agriculture and hydropower, which might become a problem in the future as the electricity demand grows and the environmental condition changes. In this report a future electricity demand is projected and used as an input in the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to find the least cost solution (NPV) to meet the future growing energy demand for different scenarios. This resulted in an energy mix where all the hydropower potential in the country is utilised in the country together with a large installed capacity of natural gas, which will be extracted from the national reserves. The report discusses the results in detail and provides further direction on how Uganda can develop their infrastructure and energy system with regards to policies and external factors. It also enlightened the dangers of inefficient and inflexible policies in the country. The modelling data and detailed calculations will be made publicly availably.
Denna studie har tagits fram för att vägleda beslutsfattare i Uganda vid utvecklandet av ett hållbart och miljövänligt energisystem. Detta har gjorts genom att identifiera och analysera kopplingarna mellan Climate-, Land-, Waterand Energy use (CLEWs). Det viktigaste sambandet identifierades till vattenanvändning mellan jordbruk och vattenkraft. I denna rapport har fokus lagts på analys av energi och ekonomi, medan en detaljerad analys av områdena vatten och land återfinns i rapporten ”Water and Agriculture in Uganda – Supporting a CLEW assessment”. I dagsläget har Uganda ett stort beroende av vattenkraft och jordbruk och på grund av externa förändringar och ett ökande elbehov kan detta komma att bli ett framtida problem. I denna rapport har en den framtida konsumtionen av elektricitet uppskattats och vidare använts som indata i modelleringssystemet OSeMOSYS. Det resultat som modelleringen genererade inkluderar en full exploatering av den potentiella vattenkraften, tillsammans med en stor utbyggnation av kraftverk med naturgas som bränsle. Naturgasen ska enligt modellen utvinnas från de nationella reserverna. Samtliga resultat diskuteras i detalj och ger vidare vägledning kring hur Uganda bör utveckla såväl infrastruktur som energisystem, med hänsyn till de strategier och externa faktorer som finns. Studien belyser också de risker som kommer med rigida och ineffektiva strategier. Samtlig insamlad data och detaljerade beräkningar återfinns i publicerad form.

Despite the UK’s abundance of renewable energy sources and the imperative for renewable energy to make a significant contribution to addressing the problems of climate change and fossil-fuel dependency, renewable energy capacity in the UK has developed slowly compared with some other EU states. The UK has introduced a succession of policies to promote renewable energy, but so far these have failed to meet national and EU targets. This signals the need for detailed examination of the reasons for these ‘failures’ and, in particular, the extent, nature and constraints on ‘policy learning’ within UK renewable energy policy. Policy learning has emerged in recent years as an innovative way of exploring the roles of knowledge acquisition and use in policy change. This study examines the contribution of policy learning to the development of UK renewable energy policy. It is argued that interpreting UK renewable energy policy development through the lens of policy learning yields fresh perspectives on why policies develop in certain directions and not others. In so doing, it critically examines problems caused by failings in policy learning and identifies options for the further promotion of renewable energies in the UK. The study distinguishes four different forms of policy learning: technical, conceptual, social and political. Little research has been conducted on the characteristics of these different learning types, the conditions under which they occur, the psychological, institutional and cultural factors that stimulate or constrain learning, and how they interact to shape policy change. The study utilises a qualitative methodology to analyse and explain changes in UK renewable energy policy over the past 20 years. The main methods employed are content analysis of policy documents (including legislative acts and instruments, consultations and select committee reports); and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders from government, industry, NGOs, academia and the media. It is argued in the thesis that UK energy policy has tended to become ‘locked’ into low-level forms of technical learning because current government learning mechanisms do not challenge the parameters of existing policy and, thus, fail to stimulate broader processes of conceptual and social learning that might encourage more radical policy change. These forms of policy learning are particularly constrained by hierarchical institutional structures that hinder communication and learning between policy areas. Furthermore, the current style of policy making for renewable energy in the UK privileges the interests of incumbent energy companies, giving them the ability to filter or block new ideas that do not align with their commercial interests. Political learning was shown to operate alongside other types of policy learning and to take multiple forms but focused predominantly on political risk management rather than political innovation: thus, it tended to narrow rather than extend the parameters of debate. These findings were used to develop a model of policy learning in UK renewable energy policy. This was used to conceptualise relationships between different learning types, highlight specific barriers to policy learning, and illustrate dynamics of policy learning and change that might be extended to other policy areas and countries. Finally, it is argued that many of the barriers identified might be overcome by fostering more evidence-based policy making and learning mechanisms that engage with a broader range of stakeholders to stimulate more pluralistic government processes.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa is one of the most energy-intensive economies in the world, with around 90 per cent of its electricity generated using coal as a primary resource. As such, the South African energy system remains on a highly unsustainable path, and the potential for long-term growth and prosperity of the economy is thwarted. The alternative to conventional energy, renewable energy, has unfortunately been relatively slow to take off in the South Africa market. This is disappointing considering the country’s wealth of natural resources required for renewable energy generation. The potential of renewable energy to contribute to the South African energy mix is thus significant. The transition to a green economy, and subsequently a more sustainable energy future, is therefore achievable and realistic. However, national policies aimed at promoting the deployment of renewable energy have been thwarted by inconsistencies, lack of coordination, and proved relatively ineffective at increasing the country’s renewable energy capacity to its full potential. The recent policy changes from a feed-in tariff to a competitive tender approach dented investor confidence in the South African renewable energy industry significantly. Nevertheless, renewable energy policy in South Africa is still in its infancy, and valuable lessons are still to be learnt and incorporated into future policies going forward. A critical analysis of the current policy identifies the need for amendment to the structure of the policy landscape. The current policy strongly favours larger, more established and mature renewable technologies, whilst completely neglecting smaller and less mature ones. This not only results in a highly undiversified renewable energy mix, which has considerable negatives in itself, but also reduces the ability of the policy to capture a host of significant opportunities and advantages associated with small-scale renewable energy projects. The importance of diversifying South Africa’s renewable energy mix was therefore ones of the principal stances of this study, and intervention that ensured diversification within the industry was therefore vital. This study fundamentally designs and proposes a revised policy system that makes use of both competitive tenders and feed-in tariffs within the policy framework. In essence, this would allow for greater diversification within the renewable energy industry. The competitive tender component should be used for larger, more established technologies and projects, while the feed-in tariff should be used to drastically stimulate investment in smaller technologies and projects. By making use of a dual-mechanism system, the benefits associated with small-scale renewable energy projects can be realized without any noteworthy opportunity costs foregone. These benefits include diversification of the renewable energy mix; stimulation of smaller technologies; increased job creation; and stabilisation of supply volatility. This study recommends that the current renewable energy policy in South Africa be reassessed for both its relevancy within the South African context as well as its ability to effectively promote the deployment of alternative energy technologies. In an ever-changing and globalising world, where exogenous influences on national policies are stronger than ever, it becomes necessary and of utmost importance that policies are evaluated constantly in order to ensure their effectiveness is at optimal level.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie is een van die energie-intensiefstes ter wêreld, met steenkool as hoofbron vir sowat 90 persent van die land se kragopwekking. Die Suid-Afrikaanse energiestelsel as sulks bly dus op 'n onstabiele pad, en die potensiaal vir langdurige ekonomiese groei en welvaart word geknel. As teenvoeter vir konvensionele krag het hernubare energie steeds stadig veld gewen in die plaaslike mark – wat teleurstellend is as die land se rykdom aan natuurlike bronne vir hernubare energie-opwekking in ag geneem word. Hernubare energie het dus 'n aansienlike potensiaal om tot die Suid-Afrikaanse energiemengsel by te dra. Die oorgang na 'n groen ekonomie, en gevolglik na 'n volhoubaarder energie-toekoms, is daarom bereikbaar en realisties. Nasionale beleide oor hoe die uitrol van hernubare energie bevorder word, is egter tot dusver gestrem deur ongereeldhede en 'n gebrek aan koördinasie, en was gevolglik relatief ondoeltreffend om die land se hernubare energiekapasiteit ten volle te verhoog. Die onlangse beleidsveranderinge vanaf 'n toevoertarief na 'n mededingende tenderbenadering het beleggersvertroue aansienlik geskaad. Suid-Afrika se hernubare energiebeleid is nietemin nog in sy kinderskoene, met kosbare lesse wat geleer kan word en vir die pad vorentoe in toekomsplanne ingewerk kan word. 'n Kritiese ontleding van die huidige beleid wys hoe nodig 'n aangepaste struktuur vir die beleidsraamwerk is. Die huidige beleid begunstig groter, meer gevestigde en ontwikkelde tegnologieë terwyl kleiner en minder ontwikkeldes heeltemal afgeskeep word. Dit het tot gevolg nie net 'n hoogs ongediversifiseerde mengsel van hernubare energie nie, wat op sigself 'n aantal nadele inhou, maar boonop verminder dit die beleid se vermoë om vele betekenisvolle geleenthede en voordele aan te gryp wat gepaard gaan met kleinskaalse projekte vir hernubare energie. Dat die diversifisering van Suid-Afrika se hernubare energiesamestelling belangrik is, was dus een van dié studie se hoofbenaderings, asook dat ingryping ter wille van diversifisering binne die bedryf onontbeerlik is. Hierdie studie bied 'n ingrypende ontwerp en voorstel vir 'n hersiene beleidstelsel, met mededingende tenders asook toevoertariewe binne die beleidsraamwerk. Dit sal in wese ruimte laat vir groter diversifikasie binne die hernubare energiebedryf. Die mededingende tendergedeelte behoort vir groter, meer gevestigde tegnologieë en projekte gebruik te word, terwyl die toevoertariewe kan dien om belegging in kleiner tegnologieë en projekte te stimuleer. Deur 'n stelsel van tweeledige meganismes kan die voordele van kleinskaalse hernubare energieprojekte realiseer sonder die inboet van noemenswaardige geleentheidskoste. Dié voordele sluit in, om enkeles te noem, die diversifikasie van die hernubare energie-toneel; die stimuleer van kleiner tegnologieë met gepaardgaande groter werkskepping; en toenemende plaaslike produkvervaardiging. Met dié studie word aanbeveel dat Suid-Afrika se huidige beleid oor hernubare energie heroorweeg word, rakende die relevansie daarvan binne die landskonteks asook die beleid se vermoë om die ontplooiing van alternatiewe energietegnologieë doeltreffend te bevorder. In 'n voortdurend veranderende en globaliserende wêreld, met buite-invloede op nasionale beleidsrigtings sterker as ooit, word dit noodsaaklik en uiters belangrik dat beleide voortdurend heroorweeg word om die doeltreffendheid daarvan op die gunstigste vlak te verseker.

In order to meet emissions targets under the UN Paris Agreement, every nation must decarbonize its energy production. The US isn't reducing energy-related emissions fast enough to meet its targets for keeping overall warming under 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This constitutes a grave injustice to the most vulnerable populations of the world, who are suffering the ill effects of climate change already. The challenge of eliminating fossil fuels from the US energy system is not simply one of technological limitations, however. The aim of this dissertation is to provide an analysis of historical, political, and, most importantly, conceptual barriers to decarbonization of energy in the US. I believe not just our policies and our markets, but our thinking has to change if we are to avoid recapitulating the injustices of the fossil fuel energy system. I argue that energy policy in the US over time has ossified around a narrow conception of energy as fossil energy—as a substance, rather than as a service. I call this the fossil conception of energy (FCE). I follow historical traces of the FCE in three key areas: political discourse in the US, the relationships between the US dollar and OPEC oil (a complex web called the petrodollar system), and domestic energy markets. Through William Freudenburg's "double diversion" framework for analysis of society-environment relationships, I argue that the FCE grounds a privileged discourse that legitimates the supremacy of fossil fuels and contributes to the maintenance of US hegemony worldwide. I propose that one possibility for rethinking energy may be found in systems thinking, which leads me to conclude that any energy system organized around capital will recapitulate many of the injustices of the fossil fuel system.

La plupart des exercices d’analyse de politiques climatiques ou énergétiques font appelà des modèles dits "d’évaluation intégrée" (MEIs). Ces modèles économie-énergie-climat sont des modèles numériques pluridisciplinaires destinés à étudier lesquestions liées au changement climatique et à sa gestion. Socles d’une accumulationde connaissance, ils ont une visée prospective et aident à traduire les débatsqualitatifs des instances de décisions nationales et internationales en un ensemble dedonnées quantitatives, scientifiquement vérifiables. Leur faible capacité à prendre encompte les incertitudes inhérentes à tout exercice de prospective mais aussi leur tropgrande complexité expliquent pourquoi ces MEIs sont si souvent décriés et leurutilisation remise en question.Ce constat a guidé nos travaux dont l’objectif était de contribuer à améliorer larobustesse des MEIs, afin de renforcer la pertinence de leur utilisation pour l’analysede l’impact de politiques économiques sur le climat-énergie. Nous avons d’abordexaminé comment ces modèles participent aux débats sur le changement climatique etcomment améliorer leur utilisation. Nous avons retracé la genèse de ces modèles etleur évolution et analysé les principales critiques qui leur sont adressées. Dans unsecond temps, nous nous sommes focalisés sur l’un des principaux reproches faits auxMEIs : le traitement de l’incertitude. Sur la base de ces analyses, nous avons mis enoeuvre une approche récente de traitement des problèmes d’incertitude paramétrique:l’optimisation robuste, méthode encore très peu utilisée dans le cadre d’étudesprospectives
Energy-economy and energy-economy-environment models are widely used to assessenergy and climate policies. Developed during the last forty years, these models allowthe study of the interactions between the energy-transport system, the economy andthe climate system. These interactions are very complex as they involve linkages,feedback loops and delays that are not perfectly known and that take place over a longtime horizon.This complexity along with the large uncertainties weighing on the model parametersand main assumptions explain why the use of models in the policy debate, (where themodels address issues on climate change scenarios and on energy planning), is largelycriticized.Based on this observation, our work aimed primarily at increasing the robustness ofthese models, to reinforce the relevance of their use to evaluate economic policyimpacts. At first, we examine how these models should be used to contributeeffectively to the climate and energy policy analysis debate. We review the evolution ofthe modeling practice and question it, discussing its relevance. We then focus on theuncertainty treatment and on the basis of this review, we implement an alternativeway of considering parameter uncertainty when "modeling the future" using robustoptimization

Depuis la stagflation observée suite à la forte hausse du prix du pétrole en 1973 et 1979, les chocs pétroliers sont considérés comme l’une des sources de fluctuations les plus importantes aux États-Unis comme dans de nombreux pays industrialisés. De nombreux articles ont alors étudié le rôle des chocs pétroliers dans la fluctuation des principales variables macro-économiques à savoir, la croissance, le chômage, l’inflation et les salaires. Cependant, ces travaux n’ont pas encore permis d’aboutir à un consensus. Le débat s’est même intensifié au cours de cette dernière décennie, suite à l’absence de réaction de l’économie réelle pendant la période d’augmentation du prix du pétrole entre 2002 et 2007. En effet, la stagflation ne fut observée qu’au moment de la crise des “subprimes” en 2008. Plusieurs hypothèses furent avancées pour expliquer la différence entre les crises des années 70 et 2000. Blanchard & Gali (2009) et Blanchard & Riggi (2013) évoquent par exemple la réduction de la quantité de pétrole utilisée dans le processus de production, la plus grande flexibilité des salaires réels et la meilleure crédibilité de la politique monétaire. Hamiltion (2009) et Kilian (2008) suggèrent quant à eux la différence dans l’origine des deux chocs pétroliers : un choc de d’offre aux années 70 et un choc de demande aux années 2000. L’objectif de cette thèse est de réexaminer l’impact des chocs pétroliers sur l’économie réelle. Dans un premier temps, sur la base des travaux de Blanchard & Gali, nous proposons trois nouveaux modèles dynamiques d’équilibre général stochastique (DSGE), qui intègrent le pétrole à la fois comme facteur de production et comme bien de consommation. En relâchant plusieurs hypothèses adoptées dans Blanchard & Gali, nos modèles permettent une meilleure simulation de l’économie réelle et donc une étude plus détaillée des mécanismes de transmission des chocs. Dans un second temps, nous analysons plusieurs types d’interventions publiques susceptibles d’atténuer l’impact des chocs pétroliers sur l’économie
No English summary available

Il lavoro che presento alla commissione in sede di laurea nasce dalla magnifica esperienza che ho avuto la possibilita’ di vivere grazie a Ca’ Foscari, ossia lo stage estero nella citta’ di Mosca della durata di 3 mesi. Durante il periodo compreso tra marzo e maggio 2012 sono stata tirocinante presso l’ azienda WES - Wind Energy Systems – ditta operante nel settore dello sviluppo e promozione dell’energia eolica nella Federazione Russa. Da li’ ha avuto origine l’interesse e la curiosita’ di documentare lo stato attuale e le prospettive future di questa realta’ di nicchia, in un paese come la Russia, legata storicamente a risorse “tradizionali” quali petrolio e gas naturale. La ricerca ha quindi assunto i contorni di un’analisi della politica energetica della Russia nel suo complesso, dove i punti di forza sono indubbiamente rappresentati da petrolio e gas naturale, di cui la Russia e’ tra i principali produttori mondiali. Tuttavia entrambe le risorse presentano dei punti di debolezza...

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2006.
Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 170-183). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.

Energy conservation and implementation of effective energy efficiency policies have become imperative to curbing the escalating consumption of energy. The imbalance in the supply and demand of a country's energy has increased the importance of implementing energy efficiency policies. Proper replication of strategic energy efficiency policies that are known to be successful in one country, along with development of new approaches, can be helpful in developing the energy policy portfolio of another country. Some OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries like Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States have benefited from their energy policies during the most recent energy crisis. The motivation of this research is to provide a tool for developing countries, which are still in the stage of formulating their energy efficiency policies, to compare energy efficiency policy portfolios across countries. These countries can improve their energy efficiency policy portfolios based on lessons learned from the developed countries. The research develops a framework to compare energy efficiency policy portfolios across countries / states. Although this framework can be adopted for any type of energy policy, targeting any sector with few modifications, the current focus is on policies that target the residential building sector to reduce energy consumption. The research begins with identification of the functional domains that influence human behavior–people, economy, environment and technology–followed by identification of the factors affecting household energy consumption. It uses the four functional domains as the evaluation framework's four axes. The various factors affecting household energy consumption are positioned in the framework based on association with the functional domains. The energy efficiency policies implemented in a country are positioned in the same framework based on the pattern of diffusion of each type of policy. In addition, a prototype method is developed to identify the factors targeted by each energy efficiency policy implemented in a country. This evaluation method allows for a uniform assessment process of how energy efficiency policies target specific socio-economic factors that are known to affect energy consumption. The proposed framework will facilitate the work of policy makers and other decision makers with a powerful tool for evaluating and comparing their individual policies, or their complete portfolio of energy efficiency policies, to those from other states or countries, and to benefit from the lessons learned.
Ph. D.

The goal of this dissertation is to address three areas in the policy process literature that require clarification. First, it examines how a policy actor’s deep and policy core beliefs translate into secondary beliefs. To do so, the research models the effect of an individual’s view of government in daily life and their policy belief towards fracking on their secondary belief of which level of government should regulate an issue. Second, the research examines how a policy actor’s policy core beliefs affect a behavior called venue shopping. The research asks how policy actors’ belief towards the policy status quo affects their shopping activity level, and how their beliefs toward decision makers influence venue selection. Third, the research examines local governmental representatives as policy actors in a state-level policy subsystem. Policy process research identifies local government representatives within advocacy coalitions, but little is known about how local governmental actors compare to other advocates in the coalitions. The research uses the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) as an analytical and theoretical foundation and applies other policy process and organizational theories to inform its hypotheses. I use multiple quantitative data modeling techniques to explore each question. Data for the research is from original surveys of policy actors in state-level hydraulic fracturing subsystems in Colorado, Texas, and New York. Findings indicate policy actors’ deep core and policy core beliefs significantly influence their secondary beliefs. However, deep core beliefs have a greater effect on secondary beliefs related to more abstract issues, such as air quality, and less on more concrete issues, such as the distance a well should be from other structures. The venue shopping models indicate policy actors who oppose the policy status quo shop more venues than those who align with the status quo. Additionally, the strongest indicator of which venue a policy actor shops is not their beliefs toward the decision makers, but their other shopping choices. Finally, analyses show local governments are a unique group within and across coalitions because of their network relationships and they align with one another on a set of policy core beliefs, but are also divided among pro and anti-fracking coalitions on other policy core beliefs. Overall, this dissertation shows the ACF provides a theoretical and analytical frame to examine policy actor beliefs and behavior, but additional theories and sub-groupings of policy actors are needed to explain nuances in policy actor dynamics.

Britain and Germany are two countries that are internationally recognised for their energy efficiency policies in the area of domestic buildings. Although pursuing similar objectives, the two countries have quite different flagship policies: Germany put in place a large loan and grant scheme to finance residential energy efficiency measures in 2001, the CO2-Building Rehabilitation Programme. The UK was the first country in Europe that introduced Energy savings obligations in 1994. Since then the policy instruments in both countries experienced significant change. This thesis explores the politics of the changes that occurred, and investigates the policy processes that led to the modifications. Mainstream theories of policy change emphasise short-term crisis-like events when it comes to explaining why policies change significantly. However, more recent theoretical approaches suggest that gradual mechanisms, including accumulating external pressures and slowly developing consequences of the policies themselves, play an important role as well. In order to approach the two cases theoretically, this thesis draws on the concept of friction developed in Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and the policy feedback literature. This thesis investigates how long-term pressures, for example the perceived impact of climate change and rising energy prices, affected the evolution of the key home energy efficiency policies in Britain and Germany. Combined with assessing the impact of institutional changes and policy feedback, a comprehensive analysis of long-term policy change is carried out. A set of different methods is employed to undertake the investigation including qualitative and quantitative research methods such as semi-structured interviews with more than 25 experts followed by qualitative content analysis, complementary document analysis, and the review of data sets. The analysis provides a detailed historical case study of the key home energy efficiency policy instruments in Germany and the UK with a focus on the causal mechanisms of gradual pressures. Wider conclusions are drawn for the theories of policy change and how gradual pressures might be accounted for in those theories in a more meaningful way.

Sweden aims to become one of the first fossil-free welfare countries in the world. In 2009, specific energy and climate policy targets were announced for 2020, which exceed the ambition of respective EU targets in some areas. The overarching objective of the thesis is to understand the role of energy efficiency in Swedish energy and climate policy frameworks, and identify the gaps that need to be addressed. In this context, energy efficiency is recognized as a challenge to address. Yet, there are reasons to believe that it is not being pursued with the same dedication as other energy and climate-related targets. This hypothesis is tested using Mixed Methods research, with cases on different sectors of the Swedish economy, namely energy intensive industry and public bus transport, as well as comparisons with energy efficiency within the EU-28. With the help of abductive reasoning, the observations are inferred to an explanation, and common themes for Swedish energy efficiency policies emerge. The evidence indicates that energy efficiency has received lower priority than other energy and climate policies. This is demonstrated by the conflict between energy efficiency, emission reduction and renewable energy targets, for example in the case of public transport. There is generally a mismatch between targets and the instruments in place. Thus more attention should be given to energy efficiency and its potential benefits for the Swedish energy system. Opportunities for energy efficiency improvements are not being fully realized, but new policy initiatives could provide the necessary support to harness the potential. In-depth evaluation of new policy instruments should be integrated in the policy-making process, in order to provide a clear picture of costs versus benefits. An example is given with a Cost-Benefit Analysis for energy efficiency obligations targeting the Swedish energy intensive industry. Simplicity and transparency in the introduction and monitoring of new instruments need to be sought for. Energy efficiency should be given first priority in relation to other energy and climate targets. The basis for future policies should be grounded now in order for energy efficiency to become the key for successful Swedish energy policy.

QC 20160914

Public concern about energy-related environmental damage has put pressure on governments to enhance abatement policies. This has in turn led to increasing demands for information about and analysis of expected and optimal levels of environmental quality, and the means of influencing these levels. Energy demand modelling can act as a valuable tool in the production of this information, particularly where it relates to future levels of environmental quality and to how policy intervention can alter constraints facing consumers in order to achieve desired levels. The thesis focuses on two features of energy demand analysis. First, major developments in dynamic econometrics, and in particular the cointegration approach, have enabled energy demand modellers to incorporate long run equilibrating relationships between energy use and its main determinants, such as economic activity and relative prices, within a dynamic framework. Second, the existence of a diverse market for energy both in terms of the fuels used and the users suggests that energy demand should be analysed at a disaggregated level. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether disaggregated dynamic energy demand modelling can provide additional valuable information for the formulation of environmental policy. The core of the thesis takes the form of six separate papers: three review papers link dynamic energy demand modelling with environmental policy and three case study papers use disaggregated dynamic energy demand modelling to examine aspects of future United Kingdom energy-related environmental quality and how it can be altered through changing the constraints facing consumers. While theory and traditional econometrics have provided useful information about energy consumption behaviour, the introduction of the cointegration approach and the error correction model are enabling economists to estimate more reliably the long run relationships between energy demand and its main determinants, and the gradual adjustment of consumers towards equilibrium consumption levels after a disequilibrating disturbance. This new information is giving a greater understanding of how to achieve desired future environmental quality levels. The heterogeneous nature of energy use, both in terms of the fuels used and their users, indicates that the accuracy of elasticity estimates and, thus, the quality of information they can provide for environmental policy might be improved through the disaggregation of dynamic energy demand modelling. Employing the cointegration approach and sectoral and fuel specific error correction models to generate estimates of income, three separate papers provide evidence in support of this argument. Individually, these papers provide information about sectoral and fuel specific elasticities, about how residential users alter their behaviour as economic constraints change and about how certain car users alter their fuel consumption patterns when provided with adverse environmental publicity about fuels. Together, these papers suggest that there exists considerable variation in income and real price elasticities between sectors and fuels, and that using the estimates generated by such disaggregated dynamic models will provide greater accuracy than aggregated and static models. These variations are of particular importance to environmental policy makers because of the difference in environmental impact associated with different fuels. The thesis, therefore, finds that, by generating more detailed and reliable elasticity estimates, disaggregated dynamic energy demand models provide new and valuable insights for the formulation of environmental policy. It concludes that disaggregated dynamic energy demand modelling will form an increasing share of the models used for environmental forecasts and policy analysis - although the overall interest in this area of research may shift as levels of certain energy-related environmental indicators improve (eg carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides) and others worsen (eg volatile organic compounds and PM10). The thesis suggests that considerable refinements in energy demand modelling can be made, both in the methods used and in the focus of empirical studies, which will lead to further improvements in the formulation of environmental policy.

Forestlands have been identified as a valuable resource to mitigate climate change due to the biome’s capacity to both sequester greenhouse gases and substitute for fossil fuels. Woody biomass has been proposed as a substitutable input for coal-generated electricity as economies attempt to transition to renewable power while addressing economic development goals. However, increasing the intensity of forest management for energy production has the potential to result in significant ecological, economic and social consequences at local, regional and global scales. In this context, my dissertation explores the capacity of existing policy frameworks to stimulate and support sustainable power production from forest biomaterials. In Chapter Two, I explore the interactions between shifting goals, actors and institutions in influencing incentives that shape today’s policy mix for woody biopower production in Wisconsin. The study’s results reveal that the state’s shifting focus away from using renewable energy as a means to pursue climate change mitigation and energy security goals combined with an absence of supportive coalitions has resulted in the dismantling of support for the woody biopower policy framework. In Chapter Three, I use data from a household survey of Tomahawk, Wisconsin residents to evaluate support for woody biomass production for power generation. Results show that respondents in biomass producing communities are more supportive of biomass sources such as forestry residues and forestry thinnings than dedicated harvesting operations. In addition, the results indicate that using an ecosystem services approach can help explain differences in support between these respondents and provide insights into socially acceptable forms of biomass harvesting operations. Chapter Four evaluates the use of sustainable forest management certification programs as a policy instrument to source sustainable woody biomass. The study evaluated the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI) certification programs using bioenergy sustainability criteria found in the academic literature. The analysis shows a deficiency in these programs to address key criteria pertaining to climate change mitigation and would be improved by coupling sustainable forest management programs with bioenergy sustainability schemes such as designed by the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials.