Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Énergies renouvelables – Évaluation du risque'
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Chehaita, Julie. "Apport de l’approche écosystémique dans la gestion des risques de la transition énergétique : cas de l’éolien." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Troyes, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021TROY0039.
Full textEnergy companies are faced with the need to transform their business model to integrate environmental concerns and ensure an energy transition. According to the transitions literature, addressing the risks of this process requires innovative, long-term oriented approaches, as well as thoughtful and adaptive policy design. In this framework, the business ecosystem approach plays an important role in the discovery of new solutions during the energy transition. The main objective of this thesis is to examine the contribution of applying the ecosystem approach in reducing the underlying risks of this process. Through exhaustive in-depth interviews and literature reviews, extensive stakeholder engagement, and interrogation of the characteristics of energy actors in a range of contexts, the potential for the role of the emerging renewable energy ecosystem in reducing the risks of the energy transition is explored. The research conducted provides insight into the holistic nature of the relationship between energy actors and explores common barriers encountered such as social acceptability, market risks and stakeholder management. The results suggest that companies are aware of the potential of an emerging renewable energy ecosystem and that most companies view the ecosystem approach positively. Many characteristics of this potential ecosystem, which is in its nascent stage, were found in the current partnership strategies of the interviewed stakeholders. More broadly, a mapping of the emerging renewable energy ecosystem was presented
Coupan, Frédéric. "Stockage pour les énergies renouvelables : évaluation et modélisation de la batterie plomb-acide." Thesis, Guyane, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017YANE0001/document.
Full textThis work has two parts. A first more "strategic" part concerning the importance of storage for renewable energies. An increasingly technical and increasingly precise part concerning the positioning of the electrochemical storage, the position of the Lead Acid battery, the technological variants, to arrive at a detailed electrochemical modeling of the type of battery retained.In the first section, Chapter 1 of the thesis highlights the good positioning of electrochemical storage for the needs of renewable energies. With respect to the random fluctuations of the resource, time is an important element of the discussion: storage time on the one hand, time of mobilization of stored energy on the other hand. In this respect, the specification for the production smoothing of a unit connected to the network is quite different from the storage applications for a stand-alone production system.The second chapter becomes more technical, when comparing the lead-acid battery with the other storage systems. The guiding idea is to support this discussion on arguments related to the physical basis of functioning of the components studied. At the same time, it is a pretext to begin the introduction of basic principles of electrochemistry that will be developed and used by the after. There are three main families: accumulators (examples lead acid battery, NiMH, Lithium ion), redox systems or more generally external fuel (example fuel cell) and super capacitors. Overall comparison unflattering for the average performance of the lead battery, saved by its good performance / price ratio.The third chapter explains the technological variants, which shows a great flexibility that allows compromises to adapt to a wide variety of specific needs. Attention has been given to identifying specific aspects which have not been explored and which can lead to improvements, in particular in the context of recent reaction mechanisms, 2In particular, at the positive electrode (linked in particular with the Pavlov demonstration of an intermediate phase between PbO 2 and the electrolyte, of Pb (OH) 2 gel, with poorly elucidated properties). In this chapter we have placed a detailed analysis of the hydrolysis, taking into account the direct recombination of O2 and H2 at the negative electrode also cited by Pavlov. These elements will be taken up and completed in Chapter 4 in modeling.Chapter 4, devoted to modeling and experimentation, is the culmination of the progressive work of introducing electrochemical bases applied to the battery. It will underline the central role of dissemination / migration mechanisms in the functioning.A first "mathematical" aspect concerns an approximation of the diffusion equations by a discrete component network, optimal in terms of the number of components. The overall model of the battery schematically be broken down into three main functions: diffusion, activation, hydrolysis. These functions are interconnected, but efforts will be made to introduce them successively in decoupled form (at least in an approximate manner). A first step is to obtain, largely from specific experiments, realistic values of the parameters of the model
Bersalli, Germán. "Évaluation et évolution des politiques de promotion des énergies renouvelables : la transition des secteurs électriques en Amérique Latine." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017GREAE003/document.
Full textThe transition to a more sustainable energy system requires a much faster development of new and renewable energy technologies for electricity generation (RENe). Thus, involving new challenges in the regulation of electricity sector. Additionally, a stronger commitment by emerging and developing countries for a deeper decarbonization trajectory, calls for the strengthening of renewable energy policies. Such policies include designing regulatory instruments that are better adapted for their specific economic and institutional needs.This thesis deals with the evaluation and the redesign of policies that encourage the diffusion of RENe in the context of Latin America’s countries. To this end, we first use Environmental Economics theory to analyse the different regulatory instruments available, characterize them and to propose evaluation criteria based on a thorough review of the literature. We then carry out a panel data econometric study, to identify the determining factors of investments in regards to new RENe production capacity; and in particular, to measure the effectiveness of such policies. In a third phase, we mobilize the evolutionary theory of technological change to analyse the process of policy implementation, the existing barriers and the obtained results. This analysis is based on three case studies in the electricity sector of Chile, Brazil and Argentina. And finally, we focus on the challenges related to the massive deployment of RENe in Latin America by 2030-2040: the integration of intermittent energy sources, the access to financing and the industrial challenge.Our research shows that the evolution of the economic and institutional context encourages a dynamic which conditions public policy choices as well as their performance. We therefore propose the basis of an analytical framework for the design and assessment of ambitious long-term promoting policies. These policies must be integrated into a multidimensional and coherent project for the energy sector. More specifically, concerning the choice of the policy instrument and its design elements, We have therefore highlighted four principles to be considered, especially in the context of emerging countries. The level of risk for investors, the total cost of the policy for consumers, the institutional competency of the instrument and its flexibility to support technologies with various degrees of technical and economic maturity. Such flexibility must also address multiple objectives related to the socio-economic development process of each country
Do, Minh Thang. "Approche probabiliste pour l'évaluation de la fiabilité du système électrique intégrant des énergies renouvelables peu prévisibles." Thesis, Lille 1, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LIL10071/document.
Full textFollowing the environmental constraints to conventional power generation, renewable energy character grows very quickly thanks to government policies. In practice, the nature of primary sources is random, the introduction of renewable energy in an electrical network may impact the operation of the power system and the quality of the power. The use of probabilistic methods in planning the power system becomes necessary for a power system consisting of a large amount of less predictable sources. However, these probabilistic methods are currently limited to long-term planning due to their high computation time. In this thesis, a new probabilistic approach based on a coupling between the law of total probability and the first order reliability method is proposed to evaluate the reliability of the power system in short-term. It takes into account the probability of unanticipated failure of system components, the uncertainty in forecasts of renewable generation and consumption. With this method, the indicators used to quantify the reliability of the power system and the use of renewable resources can be determined. Therefore, the reliability of the power system incorporating less predictable renewable energy can be evaluated. The low computation time of the method allows it to be used to validate the short term planning, which is made one day in advance to the considered day (J)
Joumni, Haitham. "Les instruments d'appui au développement des énergies renouvelables dans les PED : une évaluation comparative dans le cadre du développement durable et du protocole de Kyoto." Versailles-St Quentin-en-Yvelines, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007VERS022S.
Full textDe, Saint Jean Myriam. "Étude énergétique et évaluation économique d'une boucle de stockage - déstockage d'énergie électrique d'origine renouvelable sur méthane de synthèse à l'aide d'un convertisseur électrochimique réversible SOEC - SOFC." Thesis, Paris, ENMP, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014ENMP0051/document.
Full textThe present work focuses on a Power-to-SNG process, especially on its energy efficiency and its economic competitiveness in the current context. It also aims at determining if the reversibility with a Gas-to-Power working mode is interesting from energy and financial considerations. The main steps required into a Power-to-SNG process, identified thanks to a review of the state of the art, are steam electrolysis for hydrogen production, followed by methane production thanks to the Sabatier reaction and a final step of gas purification to meet the composition requirements for gas network injection. Here, electrolysis is led into solid oxide cells. Power-to-SNG process simulations, led with ProsimPlus 3, indicate that the thermal coupling between methanation and the generation of steam to feed the electrolyzer is pertinent, the process energy efficiency achieving 75.8%. Concerning the Gas-to-Power process, its solid oxide fuel cell is pressurized to use additional thermodynamic cycles. The fuel cell is fed with pure hydrogen stream due to reversibility considerations, this limiting the energy efficiency, which highest value here is evaluated at 44.6%. The economic analysis includes experimental based data concerning electrochemical performances and degradation. They are obtained on a commercial cell tested at the thermoneutral voltage with a high steam conversion rate, these conditions being close to what can be expected for industrial process. They are used to calculate the levelized cost of the SNG produced by the Power-to-SNG process and the levelized cost of electricity produced by the reverse process. Investment and operating cost of these processes are important, leading to a high levelized cost of electricity. In the conditions of this study, adding the Gas-to-Power working mode to a Power-to-SNG process is not economically pertinent
Dagdougui, Hanane. "Système d'aide à la décision pour la durabilité des systèmes énergétiques renouvelables et des infrastructures d'hydrogène : modélisation, contrôle et analyse de risques." Phd thesis, École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2011. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00679421.
Full textGuinot, Benjamin. "Evaluation multicritère des technologies de stockage couplées aux énergies renouvelables : conception et réalisation de la plateforme de simulation ODYSSEY pour l'optimisation du dimensionnement et de la gestion énergétique." Phd thesis, Université de Grenoble, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00934515.
Full textRodney, Elodie. "Développement d’une méthode de gestion des risques de projet et d’aide à la décision en contexte incertain : application au domaine des énergies renouvelables." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016BORD0399/document.
Full textRisk is an inherent property of each project. Indeed, any project faces, throughout its whole life cycle, numerous risks. Those risks can have an internal or an external origin. Be able to control risks is a crucial stake for the project success. Many risk management tools have been developed, but have the recurring weakness of representing only the project and treating the risk in isolation. Risks affect the project and are generated by the project itself. So, it is necessary to consider the numerous and complex interactions between project, environment and risks.The work carried out aims to develop a risk management method suitable for all types of projects and more particularly for projects of the competitive field of renewable energies.This method relies on a formal framework, as well as on application tools to optimize project risk management. Indeed, a modeling framework which supports the method and aims to facilitate the modeling of the project as a complex system has been developed. Moreover, the representation of the interactions and the decision making have been allowed by the nature of the attributes characterizing the entities of the project and its environment and the different models for evaluation, interpretation and selection of alternatives. This method was adapted to the uncertain context. For this purpose, uncertainties have been identified and described via the realization of a data base on risk factors. Then, uncertainties have been formalized, propagated and evaluated
Alhazmi, Hatem. "Une approche analyse de cycle de vie intégrée pour la durabilité. Application à l'évaluation environnementale de processus de dessalement de l'eau (dans le cas d'Arabie Saoudite)." Thesis, Grenoble, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014GRENI072.
Full textThe scarcity of fresh water with enough (good) quality for human been is a problem which becomes more acute day by day. The increasing human populations along with increasing industrial and agricultural activities are adding more burden towered the depletion and pollution of fresh water resources. This situation becomes more serious in countries with limit water resources as Saudi Arabia which is the largest country in the world without natural fresh water resources. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is the third-largest per capita water consumer worldwide. To overcome the water shortage, sea water desalination technology has been used so far. Despite more than thirty-two desalination plants, the country faces a significant challenge to supply its population with the required amount of water. In this context, in the first place, this thesis presents a method for producing the required amount of water with minimal environmental impact while maintaining the required water quality need to be developed. Further, the possibilities of alternative energy in reducing the environmental impact from desalination needs are investigated, along with the suitability of different types of alternative energy that could be utilized in the particularly case of Saudi Arabia. Life cycle assessment (LCA) being a holistic method of assessing the environmental impacts of products it was used to assess the environmental impact of the desalination process and identifying the main reasons behind this damages. For this purpose, a collaboration with a desalination plant in Saudi Arabia was set up, which included visiting the plant several times. This allowed us to understand the desalination process, collect the required data and consider the possibilities of introducing alternative energy sources to power the desalination plants. In order to assess the environmental impact of the desalination process a LCA based on SimaPro software was performed. The results of the study showed that the most likely choice of desalination technology within the Saudi Arabian context is Reverse Osmosis (RO) desalination. The LCA model showed also that electricity produced from fossil fuel was the responsible of 92.8% of the environmental damages. Further, the most suitable alternatives to produce electricity to RO desalination are solar energy and wind energy instead of fossil crude oil. The LCA showed that using alternative energy as the source to supply electricity to desalination may substantially reduce the environmental impact
Costa, Luis. "Gestion de cellules des systèmes électriques intégrant des sources de production stochastiques." Phd thesis, École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00409587.
Full textTsang, Michael. "Cycle de vie de systèmes photovoltaïques organiques 3ème génération : élaboration d'un cadre pour étudier les avantages et les risques des technologies émergentes." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016BORD0331/document.
Full textOrganic photovoltaics present an emerging technology with significant potential for increasing the resource efficiencies and reducing the environmental and human health hazards of photovoltaic devices. The discipline of life-cycle assessment is applied to assess how various prospective manufacturing routes, device characteristics, uses and disposal options of organic photovoltaics influences these potential advantages. The results of this assessment are further compared to silicon based photovoltaics as a benchmark for performance. A deeper look is given to the potential human health impacts of the use of engineered nanomaterials in organic photovoltaics and the appropriateness of life-cycle assessment to evaluate this impact criteria. A newly developed life-cycle impact assessment model is presented to demonstrate whether the use of and potential hazards posed by engineered nanomaterials outweighs any of the resource efficiencies and advantages organic photovoltaics possess over silicon photovoltaics
Bouckaert, Stéphanie. "Contribution des Smart Grids à la transition énergétique : évaluation dans des scénarios long terme." Phd thesis, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2013. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00959266.
Full textMena, Rodrigo. "Risk–based modeling, simulation and optimization for the integration of renewable distributed generation into electric power networks." Thesis, Châtenay-Malabry, Ecole centrale de Paris, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015ECAP0034/document.
Full textRenewable distributed generation (DG) is expected to continue playing a fundamental role in the development and operation of sustainable, efficient and reliable electric power systems, by virtue of offering a practical alternative to diversify and decentralize the overall power generation, benefiting from cleaner and safer energy sources. The integration of renewable DG in the existing electric powernetworks poses socio–techno–economical challenges, which have attracted substantial research and advancement.In this context, the focus of the present thesis is the design and development of a modeling,simulation and optimization framework for the integration of renewable DG into electric powernetworks. The specific problem considered is that of selecting the technology, size and location of renewable generation units, under technical, operational and economic constraints. Within this problem, key research questions to be addressed are: (i) the representation and treatment of the uncertain physical variables (like the availability of diverse primary renewable energy sources, bulk–power supply, power demands and occurrence of components failures) that dynamically determine the DG–integrated network operation, (ii) the propagation of these uncertainties onto the system operational response and the control of the associated risk and (iii) the intensive computational efforts resulting from the complex combinatorial optimization problem of renewable DG integration.For the evaluation of the system with a given plan of renewable DG, a non–sequential MonteCarlo simulation and optimal power flow (MCS–OPF) computational model has been designed and implemented, that emulates the DG–integrated network operation. Random realizations of operational scenarios are generated by sampling from the different uncertain variables distributions,and for each scenario the system performance is evaluated in terms of economics and reliability of power supply, represented by the global cost (CG) and the energy not supplied (ENS), respectively.To measure and control the risk relative to system performance, two indicators are introduced, the conditional value–at–risk (CVaR) and the CVaR deviation (DCVaR).For the optimal technology selection, size and location of the renewable DG units, two distinct multi–objective optimization (MOO) approaches have been implemented by heuristic optimization(HO) search engines. The first approach is based on the fast non–dominated sorting genetic algorithm(NSGA–II) and aims at the concurrent minimization of the expected values of CG and ENS, thenECG and EENS, respectively, combined with their corresponding CVaR(CG) and CVaR(ENS) values; the second approach carries out a MOO differential evolution (DE) search to minimize simultaneously ECG and its associated deviation DCVaR(CG). Both optimization approaches embed the MCS–OPF computational model to evaluate the performance of each DG–integrated network proposed by the HO search engine. The challenge coming from the large computational efforts required by the proposed simulation and optimization frameworks has been addressed introducing an original technique, which nests hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) within a DE search engine. Examples of application of the proposed frameworks have been worked out, regarding an adaptation of the IEEE 13 bus distribution test feeder and a realistic setting of the IEEE 30 bussub–transmission and distribution test system. The results show that these frameworks are effectivein finding optimal DG–integrated networks solutions, while controlling risk from two distinctperspectives: directly through the use of CVaR and indirectly by targeting uncertainty in the form ofDCVaR. Moreover, CVaR acts as an enabler of trade–offs between optimal expected performanceand risk, and DCVaR integrates also uncertainty into the analysis, providing a wider spectrum ofinformation for well–supported and confident decision making
Gasnier, Swann. "Environnement d’aide à la décision pour les réseaux électriques de raccordement des fermes éoliennes en mer : conception et évaluation robuste sous incertitudes." Thesis, Ecole centrale de Lille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017ECLI0013.
Full textOffshore wind power is quickly developing. Its cost-effectiveness, measured with the LCOE (Levelized cost of Energy) has not reached the one of onshore wind power yet. The cost of electrical connection impacts this cost-effectiveness. Depending on the distance to the onshore grid, many possibilities of architectures and associated technologies can be considered for this connection network (AC, DC etc.). The goal of this research is to provide a decision support framework for the assessment and the planning of architectures for electrical connecting networks.The architecture assessment relies on the calculations of the annual energy dissipated through the network, of the investment costs and of the annual energy curtailed due to the network unavailability. To compute these quantities, models and methods are proposed.It appears that to compare architectures, these must be have near optimal designs? Thus, a formulation of the electrical network design optimization is proposed. The formulation is generic in regard to the various architectures which are considered. A quick heuristic solving approach which gives near optimal solutions is proposed and implemented.The decision support framework makes it possible the design and the assessment of an architecture and is applied to two very different architectures. Finally, a probabilistic analytical method is proposed to take into account the models uncertainties and to study their propagation to the decision criteria
Kanouni, Hassani Rams, and Hassani Rams Kanouni. "Impact de l'incertitude sur la gestion de l'environnement et des ressources naturelles : une analyse en temps continu par la programmation dynamique et les options réelles." Doctoral thesis, Université Laval, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/18709.
Full textCette thèse utilise la mathématique et la théorie de l'économie financière pour étudier la gestion de la pollution, la valeur d'une centrale électrique thermique et le prix d'une ressource naturelle non renouvelable. Elle est composée de trois essais. Le premier essai analyse la décision d'investir afin de réduire les émissions d'un polluant de type stock sous deux types d'incertitude : économique (ce qui rend les émissions stochastiques car elles sont une conséquence de l’activité économique) et environnementale (ce qui affecte directement le stock de polluant). La littérature économique récente semble indiquer qu'en présence d'incertitude et de coûts irréversibles, l'action d’investir devrait être retardée. Nous utilisons des concepts de la théorie des options réelles et formulons ce problème de planificateur central comme un problème d'arrêt optimal en temps continu. Nous dérivons la règle d'arrêt correspondante et montrons que lorsque l'incertitude environnementale ou économique est suffisamment élevée, il est optimal d'investir immédiatement pour réduire les émissions. Ces résultats ont des implications sur la gestion des stocks de polluant stock, notamment pour la gestion des gaz à effet de serre. Le second essai s’appuie sur la théorie des options réelles pour évaluer la valeur d’une centrale électrique dans un marché déréglementé. Ce travail est motivé par la vague de déréglementation qui a sévi récemment dans le secteur de l'électricité. La littérature existante cherche plutôt à trouver la valeur d'option de vente d'une certaine quantité d'électricité à un moment donné dans le futur ou modélise la décision d'opérer une centrale électrique par simulation. Notre formulation considère qu'une usine de production d'électricité peut être dans deux états (à l'arrêt ou en fonctionnement); dans chaque état, la firme possède une option « call américaine » sur l'autre état et le passage d'un état à l'autre est coûteux. Nous supposons que le « spark spread » suit un processus de retour à la moyenne avec changements de régime et nous utilisons des données du marché californien pour notre application empirique. Nous montrons qu'avec la prise en compte des coûts de suspension et de génération d'électricité, il y a un effet d'hystérésis: les seuils de spark spread pour les décisions de produire et d'arrêter la production diffèrent. Nous utilisons ensuite ces règles de fonctionnement à court terme dans une méthodologie basée sur des simulations Monte Carlo pour estimer la valeur de la centrale. Le troisième essai rend plus générale la formulation du modèle de Gaudet et Khadr (1991) en considérant une fonction d'utilité non espérée afin de dériver une généralisation de la règle d'Hotelling. Alors que dans le cadre de l'utilité espérée la différence entre le taux de rendement espéré de l'actif risqué (la ressource non renouvelable) et celui d'un actif certain égale une prime de risque qui ne dépend que du coefficient d'aversion relative au risque et de la covariance entre la consommation et le rendement de l'actif risqué, cela n'est plus vrai avec notre fonction d'utilité plus générale. Nous montrons que la prime de risque dépend alors aussi de l'élasticité de substitution intertemporelle (qui n'est plus nécessairement égale à l'inverse du coefficient d'aversion relative au risque), de l'incertitude de l'utilité indirecte et de l'incertitude de l'utilité marginale de la richesse. La prise en compte de ces paramètres additionnels peut avoir des conséquences importantes. Supposons en effet que l'élasticité de substitution intertemporelle soit suffisamment élevée et que l'incertitude de l'utilité indirecte soit suffisamment faible relativement à celle de l'utilité marginale de la richesse. Alors, même si le consommateur est riscophobe et si la covariance entre la consommation et le rendement de la ressource non renouvelable est positive, il est possible que le consommateur exige une prime pour détenir l'actif risqué. Le taux de rendement espéré de ce dernier est inférieur au taux de rendement certain. Ce résultat est bien entendu exclu dans le cas de l'utilité espérée.
Using tools from mathematical finance and economic theory, this thesis studies the impact of uncertainty and irreversibility on decision-making related to the management of pollution, energy production, and the extraction of a non-renewable resource. It consists of three essays. The first essay analyzes the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant under two types of uncertainty: economic (emissions are stochastic because of changes in economic activity) and environmental (which affects directly the stock of pollutant). A number of recent papers find that the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant should be delayed in the presence of sunk costs and uncertainty. Using concepts from the theory of Real Options, we formulate a social planning problem in continuous time, derive the corresponding optimal stopping rule, and show that when economic or environmental uncertainty is large enough, it is optimal to invest immediately to reduce emissions. These results have implications for the management of stock pollutants and particularly for global warming. The second essay is concerned with the valuation of energy generating assets in a deregulated electricity market. The recent wave of deregulation initiatives in the electricity industry has created the need to value energy-generating assets in an uncertain environment in order to facilitate their sale. However, a number of authors have noted discrepancies between valuations predicted by a conventional cost-benefit approach and observed transactions. In this chapter, I analyze the importance of explicitly accounting for technological constraints in the generation process by modeling the decision to start and stop the production of electricity by a gas-powered plant. With the inclusion of these constraints, the generator may be in two different states, idle or generating electricity. In either state its operator has a call option to switch to the other state. These options depend on the spark spread (the difference between the price of electricity and the price of the fuel used to generate it, adjusted for equivalent units), which is assumed to follow a mean reverting process with regime changes. I use data from the California deregulated market to estimate the thresholds for starting and stopping production. These results are entered in a simple simulation framework to estimate the value of the electricity-generating asset in a competitive market. I find significant differences between a standard cost-benefit analysis and this Real Options approach. In my third essay, I derive a testable form of the price dynamics of a non-renewable natural resource in the context of a general equilibrium portfolio choice model where the representative agent has a non-expected utility function. The non-renewable nature of the resource introduces an element of irreversibility in the portfolio choice. An analog of Hotelling's rule is derived. In an expected utility framework, the difference between the rate of return of the risky asset (the non-renewable resource) and that of the riskless one equals a risk premium that depends only on the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the covariance between consumption and the return of the risky asset. I show that with this more general specification of the utility function, the risk premium depends also on the instantaneous elasticity of substitution (IES, which is not necessarily equal to the inverse of the coefficient of relative risk aversion), the uncertainty of the indirect utility function and the uncertainty of the marginal utility of wealth. These results have important consequences. If the IES is large enough and if the uncertainty of the indirect utility function is small enough, a risk-averse consumer may be willing to pay a premium to hold the risky asset even though the covariance between its return and consumption is positive. This case is of course excluded in the expected utility framework.
Using tools from mathematical finance and economic theory, this thesis studies the impact of uncertainty and irreversibility on decision-making related to the management of pollution, energy production, and the extraction of a non-renewable resource. It consists of three essays. The first essay analyzes the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant under two types of uncertainty: economic (emissions are stochastic because of changes in economic activity) and environmental (which affects directly the stock of pollutant). A number of recent papers find that the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant should be delayed in the presence of sunk costs and uncertainty. Using concepts from the theory of Real Options, we formulate a social planning problem in continuous time, derive the corresponding optimal stopping rule, and show that when economic or environmental uncertainty is large enough, it is optimal to invest immediately to reduce emissions. These results have implications for the management of stock pollutants and particularly for global warming. The second essay is concerned with the valuation of energy generating assets in a deregulated electricity market. The recent wave of deregulation initiatives in the electricity industry has created the need to value energy-generating assets in an uncertain environment in order to facilitate their sale. However, a number of authors have noted discrepancies between valuations predicted by a conventional cost-benefit approach and observed transactions. In this chapter, I analyze the importance of explicitly accounting for technological constraints in the generation process by modeling the decision to start and stop the production of electricity by a gas-powered plant. With the inclusion of these constraints, the generator may be in two different states, idle or generating electricity. In either state its operator has a call option to switch to the other state. These options depend on the spark spread (the difference between the price of electricity and the price of the fuel used to generate it, adjusted for equivalent units), which is assumed to follow a mean reverting process with regime changes. I use data from the California deregulated market to estimate the thresholds for starting and stopping production. These results are entered in a simple simulation framework to estimate the value of the electricity-generating asset in a competitive market. I find significant differences between a standard cost-benefit analysis and this Real Options approach. In my third essay, I derive a testable form of the price dynamics of a non-renewable natural resource in the context of a general equilibrium portfolio choice model where the representative agent has a non-expected utility function. The non-renewable nature of the resource introduces an element of irreversibility in the portfolio choice. An analog of Hotelling's rule is derived. In an expected utility framework, the difference between the rate of return of the risky asset (the non-renewable resource) and that of the riskless one equals a risk premium that depends only on the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the covariance between consumption and the return of the risky asset. I show that with this more general specification of the utility function, the risk premium depends also on the instantaneous elasticity of substitution (IES, which is not necessarily equal to the inverse of the coefficient of relative risk aversion), the uncertainty of the indirect utility function and the uncertainty of the marginal utility of wealth. These results have important consequences. If the IES is large enough and if the uncertainty of the indirect utility function is small enough, a risk-averse consumer may be willing to pay a premium to hold the risky asset even though the covariance between its return and consumption is positive. This case is of course excluded in the expected utility framework.
Bovari, Emmanuel Gérard Ennio. "Economic growth, energy use and climate change : a historical and prospective approach." Thesis, Paris 1, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020PA01E055.
Full textAchieving the energy shift requires an evolution of the structural and financial structures to develop, finance, and deploy low-carbon assets. Based on a historical and prospective approach, this PhD thesis develops four essays devoted to an analysis of the viability of the energy shift within the framework of a structural approach. The first chapter focuses on the role of energy in long-term growth focusing on the industrial revolution. We show that, once human capital, technical progress and demography are taken into account, energy appears more as a catalyst than as a root cause of modern economic growth. These results suggest that non-fossil fuel-dependent growth may be possible, but that it may have potentially large transition costs, particularly because of the dependence on technological pathways. The second and third chapters address the trade-off between financial and climate sustainability at the global level. We show that a comprehensive and proactive set of climate policies is needed to achieve a balanced growth path and to control both risks. The last chapter deals with citizens’ attitudes towards renewable energy financing through the case of crowdfunding in France, a relevant instrument to diversify the investor base and raise awareness. We show that the policy framework is essential for the success of such instruments, as investors are mainly guided by their views on the sustainability of the sector, the transparency of investment opportunities and the perception of risks