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1
Wölfing, Nikolas. "Interacting markets in electricity wholesale : forward and spot, and the impact of emissions trading." Thesis, Paris 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA010049.
Abstract:
Cette thèse s'intéresse à plusieurs aspects des marchés de gros de l'électricité. L'achat et vente d'électricité se négocient sur les marchés à terme et sur le marché day-ahead. Sur ce dernier se pratique un type d'enchère très spécifique, où les enchères des acteurs prennent la forme de fonctions d'offre et de demande. Chapitre 2 prend comme point de départ un résultat de Zachmann et von Hirschhausen (2008) qui constatent une réponse asymétrique du prix de gros de l'électricité en Allemagne au changement du prix des permis d'émission négociable ( EUA ). Cependant, en contradiction avec les résultats existants, il est démontré que l'asymétrie a disparu suite à la publication d'un rapport d'enquête par l'autorité de la concurrence. Chapitre 3 porte sur l'interaction des marchés à terme et day-ahead dans un jeu d'oligopole répété. L'effet du marché à terme sur la stabilité des collusions est étudié dans le cas où les stratégies sur le marché spot prennent la forme des fonctions d'offre. Il est démontré que la simple existence d'un marché à terme peut élargir l'intervalle des valeurs du facteur d'actualisation pour lesquelles la collusion est soutenable. Chapitre 4 examine si une réaction asymétrique au changement du prix du C02 est également présente dans les fonctions d'offre du marché d'électricité day-ahead. À cette fin, les outils de l'analyse des données fonctionnelles sont adoptés et appliquées à des données des enchères. Chapitre 5 développe un test pour l'auto-corrélation dans un panel d'observations fonctionnelles. Une simulation Monte-Carlo montre une bonne puissance du test dans des échantillons de taille habituellement utilisé dans la recherche appliquéeThis thesis addresses aspects of interacting markets in electricity wholesale. Electricity is traded in forward markets and in day-ahead auctions, which implement a very specifie market design. The bids of market participants take the fonn of supply and demand functions. Chapter 2 builds upon a finding of Zachmann and von Hirschhausen (2008) who report an asymmetric response of electricity wholesale prices for Gennany to changes in the price of EV Emission Allowances (EVA). ln contrast to the fonner contribution, it is shown that the asymmetry disappeared in response to a report on investigations by the competition authority. Chapter 3 addresses the interaction offorward markets and day-ahead auctions in a repeated oligopoly game. The effect offorward trading on the sustainability of collusion is studied for the case that spot market strategies take the fonn of supply functions. It is shown that the existence of forward markets enlarges the range of discount factors for which collusion can be sustained. Chapter 4 examines if an asymmetric reaction to EVA prices can also be found in the supply functions from the day-ahead market. To this end, tools from the field of functionaJ data analysis are adopted and applied to observed bids from the day-ahead auction. Chapter 5 develops a test for autocorrelation in functional panel data. Asymptotic nonnality of the statistic is proved, and Monte-Carlo simulation sho\l good power of the test in sample sizes which frequently prevail in applied research
2
De, Klerk W. A. (Willem Abraham). "An investigation into the trading in emissions credits as a free market mechanism to curb global warming." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49717.
Abstract:
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: One of the most topical and widely discussed factors which could lead to the ultimate end of life on earth is global warming and its devastating effects. Several current trends clearly demonstrate that global warming is directly impacting on rising sea levels, the melting of icecaps and other significant worldwide climatic changes. These climatic changes will have a profound effect on the economy of the world as well as having health and social consequences for humans on earth. It has also become evident that mankind has played a significant role in causing global warming through its excessive burning of fossil fuels and its deforestation activities. Mainstream economists have increasingly realised that the prime cause of environmental problems is the absence of markets and more specifically, the absence of private ownership, which provide the foundation for markets. This occurrence has also been described in the literature as the tragedy of the commons. Mankind has come to a point in its history whereby it is in great danger of causing its own annihilation through the destruction of its natural environment. As a result of this, world leaders and many industrialists have realised that it is essential that the world must do something to preserve the natural environment. This was the rationale behind the Kyoto Protocol. In Kyoto 38 industrial states undertook to reduce their total emissions of six important greenhouse gases by at least 5 percent by the period 2012 at the latest. It was agreed in Kyoto that the system to be used to curb global warming should be based on free market principles that would focus on limiting the tragedy of the commons. On this basis it was agreed that the international trade in greenhouse gas emission allowances might fulfil an important role in providing countries and companies with the capabilities to achieve part of their reduction obligations. The Kyoto mechanism was therefore designed on the basis of emissions trading, but also had an equity objective with respect to developing countries. Supporters of the trading scheme are of the opinion that this market will guarantee that certain emission targets are met. In principle, the international trade in emission credits offers several advantages in terms of a flexible and cost-efficient realisation of the reduction obligations undertaken at Kyoto. Supporters of emissions trading are also of the opinion that trading in these gases also has economic and technological benefits. The answer to global warming might be as simple as buy low, sell high conventions. Now greenhouse-gas emissions are becoming a commodity that can be bought and sold on a worldwide scale, just like gold or soybeans. It is expected that the trading in greenhouse-gas emission rights will ultimately constitute the largest commodities market in the world. An international market for greenhouse gas emission allowances is already developing. However, rules governing such transactions are not fully worked out yet. The 178-nation Kyoto Protocol on global warming may provide a start, despite the US's refusal to support the treaty. It will be the aim of this thesis to provide understanding in terms of the functioning of emissions trading schemes and therefore the Kyoto mechanism as a solution to this problem of global warming. It will also be an important objective of this thesis to provide insight into the issues applicable to climatic change and the Kyoto mechanism.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Atmosfeerverwarming is wêreldwyd een van die mees bespreekte kwessies. Die nadelige effek van atmosfeerverwarming as gevolg van die toenemende kweekhuiseffek, het die potensiaal om tot die uiteindelike uitwissing van lewe op aarde te lei. Verskeie tendense dui daarop dat atmosfeerverwarming 'n direkte impak op stygende seevlakke, die ontvriesing van die pakys by die pole en ander noemenswaardige klimaatsversteuringe het. Indien iets drasties nie gedoen word om atmosfeer verhitting te keer nie, sal klimaatsversteuringe 'n geweldig nadelige effek op die wêreld ekonomie te weeg bring, asook 'n nadelige effek op gesondheids- en sosiale toestande tot gevolg hê. Dit het duidelik geword dat die aktiwiteite van die mensdom, hoofsaaklik verbranding van fossielbrandstowwe en ontbossing, te blameer is vir atmosfeerverwarming. Ekonome wêreldwyd het toenemend besef dat die hoofrede vir omgewingsprobleme, soos atmosfeerverwarming, toegeskryf kan word aan die afwesigheid van markte en meer spesifiek die afwesigheid van privaatbesit, wat in effek die basis van die vrye mark vorm. Hierdie gebeurtenis word in die ekonomiese literatuur beskryf as die "tragedie van die gemene goedere" . Wêreldpolitici en industriële leiers het besef dat die mens by 'n punt in sy geskiedenis gekom het waar hy moontlik sy eie uitwissing kan bewerkstellig en dat iets drasties gedoen moet word om die natuurlike omgewing te beskerm om sodoende volhoubare ekonomiese groei te verseker. Hierdie besef het gelei tot die totstandkoming van die Kyoto Protokol waar 38 nywerheidslande ooreengekom het om voor die jaar 2012 hul totale nasionale emissies van die ses belangrikste kweekhuisgasse met ten minste 5 persent tot onder hul 1990 emissievlakke te verminder. Daar was in Kyoto ooreengekom dat die stelsel wat gebruik moet word om die Kyoto doelwitte te bereik sterk vryemark eienskappe moet besit asook meganismes om regverdigheid en gelykheid tussen lande in terme van kweekhuisgasbeperkings te verseker. Die Kyoto meganismes is ontwerp met sterk vryemark eienskappe, wat basies 'n stelsel is waarvolgens lugbesoedelingsregte verhandel kan word. Hierdie verhandeling van besoedelingsregte kan toegepas word om kweekhuis gasse te verminder. Die Kyoto meganismes en dus lugbesoedelingsverhandeling verskaf buigbaarheid aan besighede en lande om hul onderskeie besoedelingsbeperkingsdoelwitte op die mees koste effektiewe manier te bereik. Die antwoord op atmosfeer verwarming kan dalk so eenvoudig wees soos koop laag en verkoop hoog. Kweekhuisgasse is besig om net soos graan of goud 'n kommoditeit te raak. Daar word verwag dat die verhandeling in kweekhuis gas besoedelingsregte uiteindelik sal groei tot die grootste kommoditeitsmark ter wêreld. Ondersteuners van die Kyoto meganismes is van mening dat kweekhuisgas verhandeling ook ekonomiese en tegnologiese voordele inhou. Dit is 'n oogmerk van die Kyoto meganismes om die verskuiwing van tegnologie tussen ontwikkelde en ontwikkelende lande asook volhoubare groei te verseker. 'n Grysmark vir kweekhuisgas regte is reeds internasionaal, voor die beplande instelling van die Kyoto meganismes, aan die ontwikkel. Die reëls en regulasies vir die Kyoto meganismes is nog nie gefinaliseer nie. Dit en die onwilligheid van die VSA om die Protokol te onderteken, belemmer die vroegtydige implementering van die Kyoto meganismes en die effektiwiteit van die stelsel. Dit is die doelwit van die werkstuk om die leser bekend te maak met die funksionering van emissieverhandeling as 'n vryemark stelsel om omgewingsprobleme soos atmosfeerverwarming te verminder. Die werkstuk beoog ook om die kwessies betrokke by klimaatsverandering en die Kyoto meganismes aan die leser te verduidelik.
3
Rodríguez, Morales Jorge Ernesto. "Competition Policy and State Aid under the European Union Emissions Trading System." Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2015. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/115611.
Abstract:
The interaction between competition and environmental policy is quite complex, particularly before state aids, whose control level reflects the emerging opportunity cost between both policies. In order to illustrate the potential efficiency losses or the imbalances on level playing field of competition, this article analyzes the legal, economic and political dimensions of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) free allocation of allowances mechanism for the power generation sector.La interacción entre la política de competencia y la medio ambientales bastante compleja, especialmente en el caso de las ayudas estatales, cuyo nivel de control refleja el coste de oportunidad emergente entre ambas. Con el fin de ilustrar las potenciales pérdidas de eficiencia o los desequilibrios en la equidad de condiciones de competencia, este artículo analiza las dimensiones legal, económica y política del mecanismo de asignación gratuita de permisos de emisión del Régimen Comunitario de Comercio de Derechos de Emisión (RCCDE) de la Unión Europea para el sector de la generación eléctrica.
4
Viteva, Svetlana. "The informational efficiency of the European carbon market." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/11204.
Abstract:
This thesis examines the informational efficiency of the European carbon market based on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The issue is approached from three different perspectives. I explore whether the volatility embedded in carbon options is a rational forecast of subsequently realized volatility. Then, I investigate if, and to what extent, new information about the structural and institutional set-up of the market impacts the carbon price dynamics. Lastly, I examine whether the European carbon market is relevant for the firm valuations of covered companies. First, perhaps because the market is new and derivatives’ trading on emission allowances has only started recently, carbon options have not yet been extensively studied. By using data on options traded on the European Climate Exchange, this thesis examines an aspect of market efficiency which has been previously overlooked. Market efficiency suggests that, conditional upon the accuracy of the option pricing model, implied volatility should be an unbiased and efficient forecast of future realized volatility (Campbell et al., 1997). Black (1976) implied volatility and implied volatility estimates directly surveyed from market participants are used in this thesis to study the information content of carbon options. Implied volatility is found to be highly informative and directionally accurate in forecasting future volatility. There is no evidence, however, that volatility embedded in carbon options is an unbiased and efficient forecast of future realized volatility. Instead, historical volatility-based forecasts are shown to contain incremental information to implied volatility, particularly for short-term forecasts. In addition, this thesis finds no evidence that directly surveyed implied volatility estimates perform better as a forecast of future volatility relative to Black’s (1976) estimates. Second, the market sensitivity to announcements about the organizational and institutional set-up of the EU ETS is re-examined. Despite their importance for the carbon price formation, demand-side announcements and announcements about the post-2012 framework have not yet been researched. By examining a very comprehensive and updated dataset of announcements, this thesis adds to the earlier works of Miclaus et al. (2008), Mansanet-Bataller and Pardo (2009) and Lepone et al. (2011). Market participants are found to rationally incorporate new information about the institutional and regulatory framework of the emissions trading scheme into the carbon price dynamics. However, they seem to be unable to accurately assess the implications of inter-temporal banking and borrowing on pricing futures contracts with different maturities. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on the market responsiveness is investigated by splitting the dataset into subsamples according to two alternative methods: 1) a simple split into pre-crisis and full-crisis time periods, and 2) according to a Bai-Perron structural break test. Evidence is found that in the context of economic slowdown and known allowances oversupply, the relationship between the carbon price and its fundamentals (institutional announcements, energy prices and extreme weather) breaks down. These findings are consistent with the arguments in Hintermann (2010), Keppler and Mansanet-Bataller (2010) and Koop and Tole (2011) that carbon price drivers change in response to the differing context of the individual trading periods. Third, the role of carbon performance in firm valuation is understudied. Since companies were not obliged to disclose their carbon emissions prior to the launch of the EU ETS, there exists little empirical evidence of the effect of carbon performance on market value. Earlier studies of the European carbon market have only focused on the impact of ETS compliance on the profitability and competitiveness of covered companies (e.g. Anger and Oberndorfer, 2008). There is also little research on how the newly available emissions data has altered the carbon performance of companies. This thesis addresses these gaps in the literature by examining the stock price reactions of British and German firms on the day of verified emissions release under the EU ETS over the period 2006 – 2011. An event study is conducted using a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions model to deal with the event clustering present in the dataset. Limited evidence is found that investors use information about the carbon performance of companies in their valuations. The information contained in the carbon emissions reports is shown to be somewhat more important for companies with high carbon-intensive operations. This thesis finds no conclusive evidence that the cap-and-trade programme has been able to provide regulated companies with enough incentives to de-carbonize their operations. The market does not punish companies which continue to emit carbon at increasing rates or reward companies which improve their carbon performance. In brief, the results of the thesis suggest that the market is not fully efficient yet. Inefficiently priced carbon options may allow for arbitrage trades in the market. The inability of investors to incorporate rules on inter-temporal banking and borrowing of allowances across the different trading periods leads to significant price reactions when there should be none. A recessionary economic environment and a known oversupply of emission allowances have led to a disconnect between the carbon price and its fundamental drivers. And, lastly, the signal embedded in the carbon price is not strong enough to invoke investor action and turn carbon performance into a standard component of investment analysis.
5
Eriksson, Andreas. "The impact of EU the emissions trading system on the price of electricity : An econometric analysis of the Nordic electricity market." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-71421.
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to examine how the EU ETS price has affected the price of electricity in the Nordic electricity market, and how future changes in the carbon price may affect the wholesale electricity prices. The Nordic countries included are Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland. The analysis builds on a reduced econometric model where the Nordic electricity price constitutes the dependent variable. Problem with autocorrelation implied that quarterly data rather than monthly data were used. This model is estimated using ordinary least square (OLS) regression technique. Four variables were found to be statistically significant. These include the EU ETS price, the hydro reservoir level, the coal price and the temperature. The estimated coefficients were used to conduct a simulation on what could happen if the EU ETS price increased to € 30 per ton. The results showed that the electricity price would than increase by about € 16 per MWh from its current level at about € 37 per MWh.
6
Aiyegbusi, Olufemi. "The Alberta carbon market : an exploration of alternative policy options through agent-based modeling." Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Faculty of Management, c2012, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/3434.
Abstract:
Our study examines some design alternatives for a carbon market by exploring the fledgling Alberta carbon market. We attempt to evaluate the performance of these designs on the bases of trade volume, cost efficiency and stability. To achieve this we construct an empirically-calibrated but simple agent-based model, certain aspects of which we selectively modify to incorporate various design options. We make comparisons among these options based on data simulated from the ensuing family of models.
We find strong evidence that in general, market design features such as source-of-credits, the scale of the market, and pricing-mechanism are very important considerations that influence the performance of the market. In addition, we find support for the notion that the level of the price cap relative to the average cost of abatement in the market matters, and beyond a threshold, higher price caps are associated with lower levels of performance.vii, 155 leaves ; 29 cm
7
Radja, Rajni. "The economic sequestration potential of agricultural soils in Canada in response to a carbon market /." Thesis, McGill University, 2007. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=100202.
Abstract:
The Canadian greenhouse gas offset system was proposed and developed with the objective of assisting Canada in achieving its Kyoto target by means of low cost emission reduction. This study estimates the potential of agricultural soils in Canada to provide carbon credits. Carbon sequestration practices such as moderate till, no-till and perennial crop activities were considered in the analysis. Crops under different tillage regimes, hay and alfalfa were also included in the study. Simulation analysis was undertaken using the Canadian Regional Agricultural Model (CRAM) for carbon prices ranging from $5 to $100/t of CO2e. Carbon credits generated as a result of the sequestration activities were estimated by endogenizing a carbon price for the sequestration activity into the CRAM model. The analysis was done regionally, provincially, and nationally. Two scenarios were investigated; one that included tillage practices and perennial crops (Policy All) and the other that only included tillage practices (Policy Till). Cropping pattern changes, carbon sequestration levels, carbon revenues, and adoption rates were estimated in the simulation. In addition, the role of transaction costs in the offset system was also examined.The results of the simulation indicated that crop shifts towards hay and alfalfa occurred in the Policy All scenario, while practice shifts towards moderate and no-till occurred in the Policy Till scenario. Simulation analysis indicated that carbon sequestration levels vary by province and region. Among the provinces, the Prairie provinces had the highest carbon sequestration levels ranging from 50 percent under the Policy Till scenario, while under the Policy All scenario it was close to 97 percent. Nationally at a medium price of $15/t of CO2 approximately 1.08 Mt of CO2 and 0.11 Mt of CO2 were sequestered under Policy All and Policy Till scenario. When transaction costs were included in the analysis, approximately 30 to 40 percent less sequestration from the baseline was estimated. The results varied by province and region.
8
Jetté-Nantel, Simon. "Impact of a carbon market on afforestation incentives : a real option approach." Thesis, McGill University, 2006. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=98735.
Abstract:
The study investigates farmers' decision to afforest marginal agricultural land to create carbon sinks in western Canada. A real option model, which incorporates price risks related to carbon and timber revenues as well as opportunity cost uncertainty, is used to assess the impact of a carbon market on farmers' afforestation decision. Irreversibility of the decision is also modeled by including sunk cost of forest establishment and the cost of reversing the afforestation process. In addition, the non-permanence impact on the profitability of afforestation was analyzed by assessing the effect of two non-permanence carbon accounting schemes.Results indicate that both, actual non-permanence policies and the presence of real options, have a significant negative impact on afforestation incentives. However, the carbon market has a positive effect as it increases the expected revenues to afforestation and also represents a diversification opportunity. Yet, even in the presence of a carbon market the investment barrier remains considerable. Despite the positive effect of the carbon market, results show that unless carbon prices reach levels well above $100/tC a subsidization of afforestation cost is needed in order to generate substantial GHG abatement from marginal agricultural land afforestation in western Canada.
9
Dhavala, Kishore. "Essays on Emissions Trading Markets." FIU Digital Commons, 2012. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/733.
Abstract:
This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior.
The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes.
The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.
10
Norberg, Martina, and Ladan Sharifian. "EU:s system för handel med utsläppsrätter i Sverige : En intervjustudie om några svenska energibolags och myndigheters uppfattning och agerande." Thesis, Linköping University, The Tema Institute, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-6804.
Abstract:
Den 1 januari 2005, startades det europeiska handelssystemet med utsläppsrätter. Handelssystemet avser att minska
koldioxidutsläppen inom Europa, för att fullfölja åtagandet i Kyotoprotokollet. I Sverige har flera sektorer påverkats
av handeln med utsläppsrätter bl.a. energisektorn, som står i fokus för denna studie.
Syftet med uppsatsen är att studera hur de större och mindre energibolagen samt de ansvariga myndigheterna i
Sverige uppfattar systemet för handel med utsläppsrätter. För att uppfylla syftet formulerades ett antal
frågeställningar om hur energibolagen och myndigheterna ser på handelssystemets följande områden, fördelar och
nackdelar, implementering, tilldelningsprinciper, förbättringspotential, framtida utveckling, samt om det finns några
likheter och skillnader mellan energibolagen. Detta gjordes genom intervjuer med representanter från ett urval av
svenska energibolag och ansvariga myndigheter. Resultatet av intervjuerna analyserades och jämfördes med tidigare
studier. Därefter diskuterades frågeställningarna.
Slutsatserna visar att handelssystemet anses vara ett kostnadseffektivt styrmedel. Vidare visar slutsatserna att vid
implementeringen var tidspressen det största problemet för både energibolagen och myndigheterna. Vad gäller
tilldelningsprinciper föredrar energibolagen tilldelning baserad på riktmärken, detta bl.a. då de ser problem med
uppdatering av de historiska utsläppen. När det gäller handelssystemets förbättringspotential önskar energibolagen
främst större harmonisering, längre perioder samt en förenkling av reglerna och kraven. Både energibolagen och
myndigheterna framhåller att handelssystemets framtid är väldigt osäker och att det beror mycket på vilka
internationella beslut som fattas. En skillnad som har kunnat urskiljas mellan de större och mindre energibolagen är
att de större tänker globalt på klimatproblematiken och miljön, i jämförelse med de mindre energibolagen, vars fokus
ligger på den inhemska marknaden.
11
Minnice, Paul. "Heterogeneous national allocation plans in the EU Emission Trading Scheme under imperfectly competitive markets." Diss., Connect to the thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10066/3637.
12
Bogojevic, Sanja. "Discourse analysis of emissions trading scholarship : a case study of the EU emissions trading scheme." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4bab5c90-dc00-48ef-88a0-3162f05cf1b1.
Abstract:
Over the last four decades emissions trading has enjoyed a high profile in environmental law scholarship and in environmental law and policy. Much of this regulatory discussion is promotional, preferring emissions trading above other regulatory strategies without, however, engaging with legal complexities embedded in conceptualising, scrutinising and managing emissions trading schemes. The combined effect of these debates is to create a perception that emissions trading is a straightforward regulatory strategy, imposable across various jurisdictions and environmental settings. This thesis shows that this view of emissions trading is problematic for at least two reasons. First, emissions trading responds to distinct environmental and non-environmental goals, including creating profit-centres, establishing a governance regime aimed at substituting state control of common resources, and ensuring regulatory compliance. This is important, as the particular purpose entrusted to a given emissions trading regime has, as its corollary, a particular governance structure, according to which the regime may be constructed and managed. Second, the governance structures of emissions trading regimes are culture- specific, which is a significant reminder of the importance of law in understanding not only how emissions trading schemes function but also what meaning is given to them as regulatory strategies. This is shown by deconstructing emissions trading discourses: that is, by inquiring into the assumptions about emissions trading that feature in the literature and in debates involving law- and policymakers and the judiciary at the EU level. Ultimately, this thesis makes a strong argument for reconfiguring the common understanding of emissions trading schemes as regulatory strategies, and sets out a framework for analysis to sustain that reconfiguration.
13
Grover, Mansi. "Essays on Risk and Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Trading Markets." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/29198.
Abstract:
A large number of concepts related to carbon offset trading policy are currently being discussed such as baseline, leakage, permanence, monitoring, verification, enforcement, financial feasibility, and third party verification. Cutting across these concepts are a variety of risks and uncertainties. These risks play a major role in developing effective market designs that achieve aggregate emission caps while encouraging market participation and investment in carbon reduction activities. What are the risks associated with carbon offset policy and how do such risks affect incentives for investing in carbon offsets?
A literature review of carbon trading risks is developed. Risks associated with carbon offsets policy can be classified into three major categories: institutional/policy, project level and measurement risks. Institutional/policy risks are related to uncertainties surrounding the future policy decisions and the institutional arrangements established to define baselines, stipulate monitoring/enforcement requirements, and define and estimate leakage. Baseline estimates are necessary to calculate the net carbon reduction of a program or project. Monitoring/enforcement risk is associated with the regulators' ability to detect whether the promised carbon sequestration activities are undertaken. Leakage occurs when carbon sequestration at one site encourages increase in carbon emissions on some other site. Project risk refers to non-performance of a carbon sequestration project in terms of not achieving the requisite target of carbon sequestration. Project risk includes physical risk and financial risk. Physical risks are associated with unexpected carbon emissions due to natural hazards or events such as fire, or hurricanes or changes in the rate of sequestration, which depend on weather and pests. Landowners will not participate in carbon sequestration programs if they expect to incur financial losses by participating. Measurement risk arises because it is difficult to measure actual rates of carbon sequestered due to spatial and temporal heterogeneity of carbon present in agricultural and forest production.
Forests are a principal carbon "sink" for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. The provision of trading emission rights under the Kyoto Protocol will provide forest landowners the opportunity to reap financial gains from sequestering carbon and trading rights to emit carbon in carbon permit markets. However, landowners may be liable for repaying all or some of the proceeds received for sequestering carbon if stored carbon is released during the contract period. Hurricane damage to forests may cause extensive mortality and subsequent emission of carbon dioxide from decomposing biomass. Such liabilities may reduce landowners' incentives to sequester carbon. This research
evaluates incentives of an individual forest landowner for sequestering and trading carbon, given the risk of carbon loss from hurricanes. Results of our simulation model reveal that the effect of hurricane risk on landowners' behavior depends on the variability of returns from carbon and timber and the ability of landowners to mitigate risk by diversifying forest holdings across regions with different sequestration rates and different hurricane strike probabilities.
Some risk mitigation strategy might be required to create the necessary incentives for landowner participation especially in hurricane prone regions. We evaluate incentives of forest landowners for sequestering and trading carbon, given the risk of carbon loss from hurricanes, and an opportunity to insure their losses. Results of simulation model reveal that the effect of hurricane risk depends on the variability of returns from carbon and timber and landowners' ability to mitigate risk by diversifying forest holdings across regions or transferring risk by purchasing insurance. Although, landowner can spread the risk of carbon loss by diversifying into different regions, insurance has a role to play over and above diversification by reducing landowners' risk (variance) from forestry investments for sequestration and timber purposes, even when timber losses are not insured.Ph. D.
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Bertrand, Vincent. "The european union emission trading scheme and energy markets : economic and financial analysis." Phd thesis, Université de Franche-Comté, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00930886.
Abstract:
This thesis investigates relationships between the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy markets. A special focus is given to fuel switching, the main shortterm abatement measure within the EU ETS. This consists in substituting Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) for hard-coal plants in off-peak power generation. Thereby coal plants run for shorter periods, which allows power producers to reduce their CO2 emissions. In Chapter 1, we outline different approaches explaining relationships between carbon and energy markets. We also review the literature relating to these issues. Next, we further describe the fuel switching process and, in particular, we analyze the influence of energy and environmental efficiency of thermal power plants (coal and gas) on fuel switching. In Chapter 2, we provide a theoretical analysis that shows how differences in the efficiency of CCGTs can rule interactions between gas and carbon prices. The main result shows that the allowance price becomes more sensitive to the gas price when the level of CO2 emissions increases. In Chapter 3, we examine interactions between carbon, coal, gas and electricity prices in an empirical study. Among the main results, we find that there is a significant link between carbon and gas prices in the long-run equilibrium.In Chapter 4, we analyze the cross-market price discovery process between gas and CO2 markets. We identified in previous chapters that there is a robust significant link between gas and CO2 markets. They are linked commodities, and their prices are affected by the same information. In an empirical analysis, we find that the carbon market is the leader in cross-market price discovery process.
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Broderick, John Foreman. "Business as usual? : instituting markets for carbon credits." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2011. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/business-as-usual-instituting-markets-for-carbon-credits(fbf35455-6dc6-4ad9-a0e9-1757dff6cfac).html.
Abstract:
Climate change mitigation necessitates substantial alterations to patterns of worldwide economic activity, be that reduction in demand, switches to new technology or 'end-of-pipe' abatement of greenhouse gases. There are profound political, economic and ethical questions surrounding the governance of the means, rate and location of change. Within advanced capitalist economies and internationally through the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emissions trading systems have been introduced as part of the broader neoliberal attempts to 'correct market failure' through the definition of new property rights.This thesis investigates the development, constitution and consequences of institutions for the production, exchange and consumption of credits for emissions reductions. Such credits are financial instruments awarded to organisations for putative reductions in emissions from 'business as usual'. In consumption, credits are equated with a quantity of emissions released elsewhere. The 'Instituted Economic Process' framework (Randles and Harvey, 2002) is used to distinguish the various classes of agent involved in these exchanges and identify the economic and non-economic relationships that constitute these institutions. Inspired by the economic anthropology of Karl Polanyi, this approach asks how economic activity is organised and stabilised within society without presuming that there are universal economic laws of 'the market', that there are essential properties of commodities and agents, or that all economic transfers are conducted within markets.I argue that crediting is a socially contingent process of commodification of atmospheric pollution which is both ontologically and normatively problematic. Extant institutions are shown to be precarious by appealing to neutral techno-scientific justifications but remaining reliant on subjective judgement. However, they are sufficiently consistent and credible that they persist and expand. These findings are of interest to the academic communities of political economy and environmental and economic geography, climate change policy makers and the environmental movement more broadly.
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Flora, Maria. "Essays on Energy Markets." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3426701.
Abstract:
In the general framework of the raising global environmental concerns, the energy market is facing the challenge of decarbonization. This translates in raising shares of renewable generation, in increasing competition, and in the need of having a reliable power system with security of supply during the process of low-carbon transition.
This thesis analyses some of the most relevant recent changes in the power market relatively to the European area, evaluating different measures that have been recently implemented, or whose implementation has been planned.
Specifically, it investigates the role and scope of the European Union Emission Trading System, its impact on the electricity generation sector and ways in which it could be more effective; it looks upon capacity markets, and, in particular, the pricing of reliability options; and, finally, it provides tools for a dynamic interconnector valuation in the context of the growing European market integration. Each theme is analyzed using different instruments, such as real option theory, Monte Carlo analysis and stochastic control theory.Nel contesto generale delle crescenti preoccupazioni per i problemi ambientali globali, il mercato energetico si trova a dover fronteggiare la sfida per la decarbonizzazione. Ciò si traduce in crescenti quote di produzione di energia tramite fonti rinnovabili, in crescente competizione e nella necessità di avere un sistema energetico affidabile durante la transizione verso un mercato dell’energia a minor impatto ambientale. Questa tesi analizza alcuni dei cambiamenti più rilevanti nel settore elettrico, relativamente all’area europea, valutando diverse misure che sono state messe recentemente in atto, o di cui è prevista l’implementazione. In particolare, analizza il ruolo e la portata del mercato europeo di emission trading, il suo impatto sul settore elettrico e le modalità con cui potrebbe aumentare la sua efficacia; esamina i cosiddetti mercati della capacità, e in particolare fornisce modelli per il prezzaggio di reliability options; infine, fornisce strumenti per una valutazione dinamica degli interconnettori, nel contesto di una crescente integrazione dei mercati europei. Ogni tema è trattato con strumenti differenti, quali la teoria delle opzioni reali, l’analisi Monte Carlo e la teoria del controllo stocastico.
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Fernando, Sánchez Miñaur Fernando Sánchez Miñaur. "Carbon pricing and the impact on financial markets." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-258408.
Abstract:
Responsible investing has become a trend throughout financial markets. As World’s economies pledge to decrease the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, environmental policies like carbon pricing (CP) are expected to be strengthened; the above is attributed to the effort of internalizing the environmental costs of the current economic system. In the same context where asset owners have been demanding to the private sector for greater coverage of Environmental Social Governance (ESG) issues, understanding exposure and risk to carbon taxation and emission trading schemes (ETS) could be a major driver for responsible investing. Nonetheless, it has been found that this environmental policy to price emissions, falls behind from a harmonized cost per emission across sectors and geographies. Defined and assessed through a quantitative scenario analysis on scope 1 emissions, all information on carbon pricing set the basis for the model. From an investing perspective, the results showed higher exposure for the electricity sector by 2030 and 2050; nonetheless, the riskiest sector to invest at, was shown as industry. The above is based on the current and expected carbon dependency, and the expected increase in coverage from carbon pricing mechanisms respectively. In addition, aviation, which is a sub-sector from offroad transportation, showed to be the main source for this sector´s exposure and risk. It is concluded that the research carried out is a first step from a complete analysis on CP, as scope 2 emissions need to be assessed.Att investera ansvarsfullt är en trend som ökar stadigt genom finansmarknader i världen idag. Då flera ekonomier i världen utlovar att minska mängden utsläpp av växthusgaser i linje med vissa klimatscenarion, så förstärks miljöpolicys som koldioxidutsläppspriser i ett försök att internalisera externaliteter i dagens ekonomiska system. I kontexten av när ägare av tillgångar börjar kräva större täckning i miljö, socialt ansvar och ägarstyrning, kan exponering och risk i koldioxidutsläppsbeskattning och handel av utsläppsoptioner vara en drivande faktor i ansvarsfullt investerande. En utmaning i att prissätta utsläpp genom miljöpolicys ligger i hur separerade båda mekanismerna är från en harmoniserad kostnad per utsläpp genom olika sektorer och geografier. Definierad och utvärderad genom en kvantitativ scenarioanalys av Scope 1-utsläpp, verkade all information om koldioxidutläppspriser som grund till modellen. Från ett investeringsperspektiv visade resultaten en högre exponering för elkraftssektorn till 2030 och 2050. Emellertid påvisades även att industrisektorn har störst risk för investeringar. Detta är baserat på elkraftens nuvarande och förväntade koldioxidutsläppsberoende och den förväntade ökningen i täckning från koldioxidutsläppsprismekanismer i industrisektorn. Vidare påvisades flygindustrin, som är en sidosektor av offroad-transport, vara den huvudsakliga källan för denna sektors exponering och risk. Avslutningsvis fastställs det att denna undersökning endast är ett första steg i en komplett analys av koldioxidpriser, då Scope 2 utsläpp även bör undersökas.
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Segerstedt, Anna [Verfasser]. "Expanding the markets for environmental protection : recent initiatives on certification, voluntary carbon offsets, protected area certificates, and emission trading / Anna Segerstedt." Hannover : Technische Informationsbibliothek und Universitätsbibliothek Hannover (TIB), 2015. http://d-nb.info/1074260171/34.
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Siddiqui, Muhammad Shahid. "Three Essays on Environmental Economics and on Credit Market Imperfections." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/20161.
Abstract:
This dissertation contains three essays on environmental economics and on credit
market imperfections.
The literature on carbon tax incidence generally finds that carbon taxes have a
regressive impact on the distribution of income. The main reason for that finding
stems from the fact that poor households spend a larger share of their total expenditure
on energy products than the rich households do. This literature, however, has ignored the impact of carbon taxes on income stemming from changes in relative factor prices. Yet, changes in household welfare depend not only on variations in commodity prices, but also on changes in income.
Chapter 1 provides a comprehensive analysis of the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality by considering both demand-side and supply-side channels. We use a multi-sector, multi-household general equilibrium model to analyze the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality. Using equivalent income as the household welfare metric, we apply the Shapley value and concentration index approaches to decomposing household inequality. Our simulation results suggest that
carbon taxes exert a larger negative impact on the income of the rich than that of the poor, and are thereby progressive. On the other hand, when assessed from the use side alone (i.e., commodity prices alone), our results confirm previous findings, whereas carbon taxes are regressive.
However, due to the stronger incidence of carbon taxes on inequality from the income
side, our results suggest that the carbon tax tends to reduce inequality. These
findings further suggest that the traditional approach of assessing the impact of
carbon taxes on inequality through changes in commodity prices alone may be misleading.
Chapter 2 investigates the economic impacts of creating an emissions bubble between Canada and the US in a context of subglobal participation in efforts to reduce pollution with market based-instruments. One of the advantages of an emissions bubble is that it can be beneficial to countries that differ in their production and consumption patterns. To address the competitiveness issue that arises from the free-rider problem in the area of climate-change mitigation, we consider the imposition of a border tax adjustment (BTA) - a commonly suggested solution in the literature.
We develop a detailed multisector and multi-regional general equilibrium model
to analyze the welfare, aggregate, sectoral and trade impacts of the formation of an
emissions bubble between Canada and the US with and without BTA. Our simulation
results suggest that, in the absence of BTA, the creation of the bubble would make both countries better off through a positive terms-of-trade effect, and more importantly, through a significant reduction in Canada’s marginal abatement cost. The benefits of these positive effects would spill over to the non-participating countries, leading them to increase their trade shares in non-emissions-intensive goods.
Moreover, the simulation results also indicate that a unilateral implementation of a BTA by any one of the two countries is welfare deteriorating in the imposing country and welfare improving in the other. In contrast, a joint implementation of a BTA by the two countries would make Canada better off and the US worse off.
Chapter 3 shows that learning by lending is a potential channel of understanding
the business cycle fluctuation under an imperfect credit market. An endogenous link
among the learning parameter, lending rates, and the size of investment makes it
possible to generate an internal propagation even due to a temporary shock. The main finding of this chapter is the explanation of how ex post non-financial factors such as information losses by individual agents in a credit market may account for a persistence in real indicators such as capital stock and output.
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Rocha, Patricio. "Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis for Electric Power Generation Systems." Scholar Commons, 2011. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/3316.
Abstract:
Cap-and-trade is the most discussed CO2 emissions control scheme in the U.S. It is a market-based mechanism that has been used previously to successfully reduce the levels of SO2 and NOx emitted by power generators. Since electricity generators are responsible for about 40% of the CO2 emissions in the U.S., the implementation of CO2 cap-and-trade will have a significant impact on electric power generation systems. In particular, cap-and-trade will influence the investment decisions made by power generators. These decisions in turn, will affect electricity prices and demand. If the allowances (or emission permits) created by a cap-and-trade program are auctioned, the government will collect a significant amount of money that can be redistributed back to the electricity market participants to mitigate increases on electricity prices due to cap-and-trade and also, to increase the market share of low-emission generators.
In this dissertation, we develop two models to analyze the impact of CO2 cap-and-trade on electric power generation systems. The first model is intended to be used by power generators in a restructured market to evaluate investment decisions under different CO2 cap-and-trade programs for a given time horizon and a given forecast in demand growth. The second model is intended to aid policymakers in developing optimal CO2 revenue redistribution policies via subsidies for low-emission generators.
Through the development of these two models, our underlying objective is to provide analysis tools for policymakers and market participants so that they can make informed decisions about the design of cap-and-trade programs and about the market actions they
can take if such programs are implemented.
21
Rotoullié, Jean-Charles. "L'utilisation de la technique de marché en droit de l'environnement. L'exemple du système européen d'échange des quotas d'émission de gaz à effet de serre." Thesis, Paris 2, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA020053.
Abstract:
L’objectif de cette étude est d’appréhender, à travers l’exemple du système européen d’échange des quotas d’émission de gaz à effet de serre, les conditions d’efficacité d’un instrument particulier de réalisation du développement durable : la technique de marché. Définie comme un instrument de police consistant en la poursuite d’un objectif de politique publique, préalablement défini par les pouvoirs publics, au moyen de la création volontaire d’un marché, c’est-à-dire l’organisation d’échanges d’« unités » entre opérateurs économiques, la technique de marché est utilisée de manière privilégiée en matière environnementale. La création ex nihilo d’un marché pour protéger l’environnement ne doit pas induire en erreur : la technique de marché ne conduit pas à une substitution de la liberté à la puissance publique. Au contraire, la technique de marché n’est efficace que si elle est sous-tendue par une action publique forte. Une intervention permanente – au stade de l’élaboration et de la mise en oeuvre de cet instrument – et multiforme – au niveau international, régional et national – de la puissance publique est nécessaire. La « main invisible » du marché ne produit ses effets que grâce à la « main visible » de la puissance publiqueBy taking the example of the European Union emission trading system, the objective of the present study is to understand the conditions of effectiveness of a specific tool: the market-based instrument. Market-based instrument is defined as a tool of policing aiming at the achievement of a public policy objective (pre-established by public authorities) with the creation of a market, i.e. the organisation of exchanges of “units” between economic operators. This tool is widely used in environmental law. The ex nihilo creation of a market in order to protect the environment must not mislead: the market-based instrument does not lead to a shift from public action to freedom. To the contrary, the effectiveness of the market-based instrument depends on a strong public action. A permanent (i.e. both during the preparation and the implementation of this tool) and multifaceted (i.e. at international, regional and national levels) public intervention is therefore required. The “invisible hand” of the market could only be effective with the “visible hand” of public authorities
22
Sousa, Rita Mafalda Dionísio de. "O funcionamento dos mercados de emissões e análise da possibilidade de aplicação em Portugal." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/3407.
Abstract:
Mestrado em Economia e Ppolítica da Energia e do AmbienteAssentando-se na prioridade máxima de reduzir as emissões dos seis GEEs, aborda-se a teoria relacionada com a definição de direitos de propriedade de Coase, aferindo ao funcionamento de uma externalidade deste género. Ao nível internacional é seguido o trajecto da UNFCCC, frisando os aspectos referentes ao Protocolo de Quioto. Este pretende uma redução de 5% das emissões em relação aos níveis de 1990, para 2008-2012. O estudo é centralizado num dos mecanismos flexíveis propostos no protocolo, isto é, no mercado de emissões. Com ele consegue-se uma redução nos custos globais de atingir os limites, apenas pelo facto de ser possível incorrer em reduções de emissões noutros locais que não no "nosso" pais se isso se apresentar economicamente mais viável. Por outro lado é permitida uma política doméstica perfeitamente flexível. Estudos sobre mercados do género (SO2 nos EUA), produziram grandes melhorias ambientais a custos muito inferiores, facilitando também a transferência de tecnologias, em relação a outros sistemas baseados em quotas não transferíveis. A definição do "bem" para troca, das modalidades financeiras da troca, como mercados spot ou de futuros, forwards, opções, etc, e da consequente possibilidade temporal de fazer um "banking", implica a existência de uma "clearing house" que garanta a fiabilidade do sistema e que publique regularmente relatórios, imprescindíveis à estabilidade do mercado. Foram analisadas três simulações de mercados de emissões, um deles, o PGETS, em curso em Portugal. Neste país, com as últimas previsões tem-se mostrado um pouco complicado cumprir os limites, estimando-se um desfasamento em 15Mt CO2 eq. As hipóteses que há para cumprir os objectivos a nível doméstico, não muito atractivas pois implicam disponibilidade financeira para investimentos avultados, prendem-se com medidas de melhoria de eficiência energética dos equipamentos, ou então desmantelamento de centrais que funcionem a combustíveis fósseis, favorecendo o uso de energias alternativas, mal esta hipótese seja economicamente viável.
Having a maximum priority goal of reducing the six greenhouse gas's emissions, we take in account the theory related to the definition of property rights by Coase, linking to the behaviour of an externality of this kind. At the international level we follow the UNFCCC's steps, focusing on the related aspects of the Kyoto Protocol, born in COP3. This last one asks for a 5% reduction in 1990's emissions, for 2008-2012. This work focus on one of the flexibility mechanisms proposed in the protocol, the permits market. With this one we achieve emission's reductions in other places other than our own, if that proves to be more cost-efficient. On the other side, a perfectly flexible domestic policy is allowed. Studies about other markets of this kind (USA's Acid Rain Programme), produced huge environmental improvements at much lower costs, easing the transfer of technologies, comparing to other systems based in non-transferable quotas. The definition of "trading good", of financial options (like spot markets, or futures, forwards, options, etc) and the consequent temporal possibility of banking, asks for the functioning of a clearing house, which warrants the system's credibility, and publishes reports, needed for the stability of the market. We analyse three simulation works, one of them (PGETS) still occurring in Portugal. This country has noted some difficulties in achieving the environmental goals, with a gap of 15Mt C02 eq.. The existing possibilities are not attractive because they ask for large sums of investment, but still they are the only ones. These are the improvement equipment's energy efficiency, or as an example, the closing of fossil fuel's electric utilities, favouring alternative energy use.
23
Benchora, Inessa. "Impact of Transition Risk on Stock Returns." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Orléans, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024ORLE1010.
Abstract:
Le risque de transition, inhérent au passage vers une économie sobre en carbone, présente des défis et opportunités significatifs pour les marchés financiers. Cette thèse vise à quantifier et à analyser l’influence de ce risque sur les rentabilités boursières, en tenant compte des évolutions réglementaires, technologiques et des préférences des consommateurs et investisseurs. Prenant part dans un premier temps au débat sur la mesure la plus adéquate pour approximer la contribution des entreprises au risque de transition, nous proposons dans le chapitre 1 d’utiliser les émissions de carbone vérifiées pour évaluer l’impact du risque de transition sur les entreprises participant à l’EU ETS. Nos résultats montrent que le système d’échange de quotas modifie le profil risque-rendement des actions, ce qui peut fournir une incitation financière à prendre en compte les émissions dans les décisions d’investissement. Ensuite, conscient du rôle pivot des banques centrales dans la transition vers une économie sobre en carbone, le chapitre 2 propose une évaluation de l’empreinte environnementale de la politique monétaire des États-Unis vis-à-vis du risque de transition. La principale conclusion de non-neutralité de la politique monétaire américaine, favorisant les entreprises polluantes, mène au troisième chapitre. Celui-ci, portant sur les États-Unis également, explore la manière dont le risque de transition est pris en compte dans la valorisation du marché et comment la réglementation climatique peut influer sur cette intégration. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’impact à long terme des lois américaines sur la relation entre émissions de carbone et rendements boursiers nécessite un renforcement pour assurer sa pérennité. Actuellement, les mesures législatives ont un effet plus marqué à moyen terme, mais leur durabilité reste incertaine. En conclusion, ces chapitres ont pour but de permettre une meilleure intégration du risque de transition dans l’évaluation des actions par les investisseurs qui habiliterait les autorités réglementaires et les acteurs du marché financier à élaborer des politiques plus adéquates et à instaurer des dispositifs préventifs face à ce risqueTransition risk, inherent in the shift to a low-carbon economy, presents significant challenges and opportunities for financial markets. This thesis aims to quantify and analyze the influence of this risk on stock returns, taking into account regulatory, technological, and consumer and investor preference developments. Taking part initially in the debate on the most appropriate measure to approximate a company’s contribution to transition risk, in Chapter 1, we propose the use of verified carbon emissions to assess the impact of transition risk on companies participating in the EU ETS. Our results show that the emissions trading system alters the risk-return profile of stocks, which can provide a financial incentive to consider emissions in investment decisions. Next, recognizing the pivotal role of central banks in the transition to a low-carbon economy, Chapter 2 provides an evaluation of the environmental footprint of U.S. monetary policy concerning transition risk. The main conclusion of non-neutrality in U.S. monetary policy, favoring polluting companies, leads to the third chapter. This chapter, also focused on the United States, explores how transition risk is taken into account in market valuation and how climate regulation can influence this integration. Our results suggest that the long-term impact of U.S. laws on the relationship between carbon emissions and stock returns needs strengthening to ensure its sustainability. Currently, legislative measures have a more pronounced effect in the medium term, but their sustainability remains uncertain. In conclusion, these chapters aim to enable a better integration of transition risk into stock evaluation by investors, which would empower regulatory authorities and financial market participants to develop more suitable policies and preventive measures against this risk
24
Ouro-Bodi, Ouro-Gnaou. "Les Etats et la protection internationale de l'environnement : la question du changement climatique." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014BORD0228/document.
Abstract:
Le changement climatique est devenu aujourd’hui le fléau environnemental qui préoccupe etmobilise le plus la communauté internationale. L’aboutissement de cette mobilisation générale reste sansdoute la mise en place du régime international de lutte contre le changement climatique dont la Conventioncadredes Nations Unies sur le changement climatique et le Protocole de Kyoto constituent les basesjuridiques. Ce régime innove en ce qu’il fixe des engagements quantifiés de réduction des émissions de gaz àeffet de serre pour les États pollueurs, mais aussi en ce qu’il instaure des mécanismes dits de « flexibilité »dont la mise en oeuvre est assortie d’un contrôle original basé sur un Comité dit de « l’observance ». Mais, endépit de toute cette production normative, il est regrettable de constater aujourd’hui que le régimeinternational du climat est un véritable échec. En effet, si la mobilisation des États ne fait aucun doute, enrevanche, les mêmes États qui ont volontairement accepté de s’engager refusent délibérément d’honorer leursengagements pour des raisons essentiellement politiques, économiques et stratégiques. Ce travail ambitionnedonc de lever le voile sur les causes de cet échec en dressant un bilan mitigé de la première périoded’engagement de Kyoto qui a pris fin en 2012, et propose des perspectives pour un régime juridique duclimat post-Kyoto efficient et efficace, en mesure d’être à la hauteur des enjeuxClimate change has become the scourge environmental concern and mobilizes more theinternational community. The outcome of this mobilization remains probably the implementation ofinternational climate change regime for which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are the legalbases. This system is innovative in that it sets quantified emission reduction commitments for greenhouse gasemissions (GHG) for polluters States, but also in that it establishes mechanisms known as of “flexibility”whose implementation is accompanied by a control based on a Committee known as of “compliance”. Butdespite all this normative production, it is regrettable that today the international climate regime is a realfailure. Indeed, if the mobilization of states is no doubt, however, the same states that have voluntarily agreedto engage deliberately refuse to honour their commitments for essentially political, economic and strategicreasons. This work therefore aims to shed light on the causes of this failure by developing a mixed record ofthe first Kyoto commitment ended period in 2012, and offers prospects for a legal regime of the post-Kyotoclimate and efficient, able to be up to the challenges
25
Leclerc, Thomas. "Les mesures correctives des émissions aériennes de gaz à effet de serre : Contribution à l'étude des interactions entre les ordres juridiques en droit international public." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017BORD0751/document.
Abstract:
La recherche d'une mesure mondiale et corrective des émissions de gaz à effet de serreafin de réduire l'impact de l'activité aérienne internationale sur les changements climatiques a étéconfrontée à l'émergence d'obstacles, sous forme de conflits de normes, liés au défi général del'interaction entre le droit international de l'aviation civile, le droit international des changementsclimatiques et le droit de l'Union européenne. La conciliation des normes matérielles etinstitutionnelles concernées, sur la base d'une interprétation évolutive de la convention de Chicago,est alors apparue comme l'unique solution pour remédier aux situations conflictuelles constatées.Le recours à cette démarche interprétative maintient néanmoins un climat d'insécurité juridique etpose la question des limites à l'adaptation du droit international de l'aviation civile au défi d'uneprotection du climat mondial. Ce travail d'analyse vise alors à démontrer qu'un recours à cettedémarche interprétative n'est pas toujours nécessaire et qu'une application rigoureuse de ladistinction intrinsèque au droit international de l'aviation civile séparant le domaine de lanavigation aérienne du domaine du transport aérien international est la clef du problème. Ellepermet en effet de proposer une solution corrective respectueuse des ordres juridiques fonctionnelsconcernés tout en rétablissant un climat de sécurité juridique indispensable au développementsoutenable de l'aviation civile internationaleLooking for a global and corrective measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions frominternational civil aviation has been facing legal obstacles. These obstacles took the form ofconflicts of norms linked to the general challenge of the interactions between international aviationlaw, climate change law and the law of the European Union. Using evolutionary interpretation ofthe Chicago Convention in order to reconcile norms of substantive and institutional nature emergedas the best solution. However, this method perpetuates legal uncertainty and poses the generalchallenge of flexibly and elasticity of the Chicago Convention in response to the climate changechallenge. This study examines the above mentioned issues of interactions between legal ordersand provides recommendations to restore legal certainty needed to ensure sustainable developmentof international civil aviation. More specifically, this study reveals the underestimated relevance ofthe ongoing distinction between the legal regimes of air navigation and air transport, which is a keylegal element in the search for a global and corrective solution to the impact of international civilaviation on climate change
26
Zamorano-Ford, Jorge. "Essays on environmental regulation under imperfect competition." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01E057.
Abstract:
Cette thèse couvre deux sujets : le dessin des permis à polluer et la gestion des déchets. Le premier chapitre analyse la mise en œuvre des permis à polluer. Le chapitre se concentre sur les impacts de la distribution liés à la sévérité de l’allocation gratuite basée sur la production courante quand deux secteurs sont couverts par le marché des permis et le plafond reste constant. Un nouveau type d’augmentation des profits dans les secteurs qui ne sont pas exposés à la concurrence internationale a été démontré théoriquement. Le deuxième chapitre traite la question de la différenciation de l’allocation des permis dans les différentes régions, liée à la possibilité des entreprises à délocaliser. Les conditions dans lesquelles le bien-être décroît avec la délocalisation sont déterminées. Dans ce cas, des distributions gratuites de permis peuvent être utilisées pour éviter la délocalisation des entreprises. Le troisième chapitre compare l’efficacité des programmes de la responsabilité élargie du producteur (REP) avec l’efficacité d’une ex-ante taxe. La taxe permet plus de flexibilité ex-ante quant aux conditions du marché, mais la REP permet plus d’adaptation ex-post aux réalisations des coûts. Ainsi, l’efficacité relative de la REP augmente avec l’incertitude des coûts et la compétitivité du marchéThis thesis covers two subjects. One is the design of pollution permits and the other is the waste management. The first chapter analyses the implementation of pollution permits. It focuses on the distributional impacts linked with the stringency of output-based allocation,when two sectors are covered by the market for permits and the total cap is held constant. Theoretically demonstrated is a new type of profit increase in sectors that are not exposed to international competition. The second chapter addresses the issue of differentiating permit allocation across areas, this being linked to the possibility of firms to relocate. The conditions under which welfare decreases with relocation are determined. In such a case, free allowances may be used to prevent firms from relocating. The third chapter compares the efficiency of extended producer responsibility (EPR) programs and the efficiency of an ex-ante tax. The tax allows more ex-ante flexibility regarding market conditions, but the EPR allows more ex-post adaption to cost realizations. As a result, the relative efficiency of the EPR increases with uncertainty of the costs and competitiveness of the market
27
Tsai, Chiao-Hua, and 蔡巧華. "Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Feasibility Assessed of Emissions Trading Market in Taiwan." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/40657839167384500562.
Abstract:
碩士國立臺灣海洋大學
航運管理學系
99
Rising of earth’s temperatures brings about extreme weather. When extreme weather occurs more frequently, production of food will keep decreasing and sea level will become higher. This is a serious impact on human survival. Many researches indicate that the main reason for the global climate change is greenhouse gases which are caused by human economic activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which was established by the United Nations in 1988, in charge of study how greenhouse gas impact on environment and put forward specific and credible assessment report to aware people the relation between increasing of greenhouse gas to global climate change. United Nations calls upon States to be taken to control greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, Kyoto Protocol(KP) was adopted by United Nations in 1997. A specific reduction target of greenhouse gas and schedule was listed in this protocol, also 3 flexible mechanisms are available. Through greenhouse gas emissions trading system, States are able to choose a more economical way to obtain the required credits. This study will discuss management of greenhouse gas, especially feasibility assessed of greenhouse gas emissions trading market in Taiwan. Referring to what the mode of operation of international emissions trading market first, than assessed if emission trading is possible in Taiwan or not, through three aspects which are economic development, natural environment, government regulations. I would like to provide a basic study of Taiwan emission trading market and suggestions for future development of relevant policy reference.
28
Knox, Janelle Kallie. "Constructing an international market for carbon trading : an institutional perspective /." 2009. http://ora.ouls.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e7b37ac4-13ea-4ab6-b999-1150b2436775.
29
Carlén, Björn. "Market power in international carbon emissions trading: a laboratory test." 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3606.
Abstract:
The prospect that governments of one or a few large countries, or trading blocs, would engage in international greenhouse gas emissions trading has led several policy analysts to express concerns that trade would be influenced by market power. The experiment reported here mimics a case where twelve countries, one of which is a large buyer (the mirror-image of a large seller), trade carbon emissions on an emissions exchange (a double-auction market) and where traders have quite accurate information about the underlying net demand. The findings deviate from those of the standard version of market power effects in that trade volumes and prices converge on competitive levels.Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
30
Zhang, Wei. "Bankruptcy Risk and the Performance of Market-based Pollution Control Policies." 2008. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/theses/160.
Abstract:
We study the impacts of bankruptcy risk on the performance of market-based pollution control policies. In chapter one, we concentrate on emissions trading markets. We find that firms that risk bankruptcy demand more permits than if they were financially secure. Thus, bankruptcy risk in a competitive market for tradable permits causes an inefficient distribution of these permits among firms. Moreover, the equilibrium distribution of permits is dependent on the initial allocation of permits. Thus, the main reasons for implementing emissions trading markets do not hold when some firms are financially insecure. In fact, the inefficiency that is associated with bankruptcy risk is worsened if financially insecure firms are given a smaller share of the initial allocation of permits.
In chapter two, we investigate the influences of bankruptcy risk on imperfectly enforced emissions taxes. Under favorable, but not unrealistic conditions, an imperfectly enforced emissions tax produces an efficient allocation of individual emissions control; the aggregate level of control is the same whether enforcement of a tax is sufficient to induce the full compliance of firms or not, and differences in individual violations are independent of firm-level differences. All of these desirable characteristics disappear when some firms under an emissions tax risk bankruptcy—the allocation of emissions control is inefficient, imperfect enforcement causes higher aggregate emissions, and financially insecure firms choose higher violations.
31
DeMarco, Devin Peter. "The rise and fall of open market emissions trading in New Jersey." Thesis, 2004. http://library1.njit.edu/etd/fromwebvoyage.cfm?id=njit-etd2004-048.
32
Lin, Hsin-Yi. "Credit for Early Action Policies in Emissions Trading Systems under Different Market Structures." 2008. http://www.cetd.com.tw/ec/thesisdetail.aspx?etdun=U0023-2907200813442400.
33
Zhou, Xun. "Advanced computational techniques for electricity market analysis considering sustainable energy supply issues." Thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1322548.
Abstract:
Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)Electricity industries worldwide are undergoing rapid and deepening change. This has been largely driven by the market-oriented restructuring underway in many countries and the increasing global concerns about climate change.Unceasingly climate change is becoming one of a major challenge for the sustainable development of power industries, as power generations are the major sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This research is dedicated to developing advanced computational techniques to solve several power system problems that emerge in deregulated electricity markets and changing environmental protection regulations. Three major objectives are included and achieved in this research. The first objective is to assess and quantify the potential impacts on, and changes in, economic efficiency in the electricity generation sector in Australian national electricity market after the implementation of ETS, as opposed to without the introduction of ETS. The focus is on the relative changes in electricity wholesale prices, generators merit order of dispatch, market power and possible compensation to carbon intensive generators.The second objective is to create a constrained multi-objectives evolutionary optimisation model based on decomposition for power system dispatch by minimising generation costs and carbon emissions.The third objective is to develop an electricity price forecast model using differential evolution (DE) algorithm-enhanced evolutionary extreme learning machine (E-ELM). The main goal is to provide more accurate and reliable prediction of electricity price to facilitate energy market participants’ portfolio and risk management.
34
Monahan, Patricia A. "Letting the market control the greenhouse effect the promise and the pitfalls of a global emissions trading system /." 1992. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/25530473.html.
Abstract:
Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1992.Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 87-93).
35
Reis, Nuno Alexandre Tirapicos Dos Santos. "The EU ETS: a tale of arbitrage opportunities." Master's thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/69927.
Abstract:
This work studies the presence of arbitrage opportunities following the announcements of the Market Stability Reserve of the EU ETS on May 2017, using the cost of carry model and three EUA futures contracts – December 2016, December 2017 and December 2018. The results suggest a long-run link between the spot and futures prices, but the cost of carry model does not explain well the price dynamics in the short run, which might be a sign for the presence of arbitrage opportunities in this market. These conclusions are especially important for European authorities, since they convey the inefficiency of the scheme.
36
yang, Shu Tsung, and 楊曙聰. "Emission Trading , Joint Implementation and Market Structure." Thesis, 1999. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28648695200895526790.
37
He, Sheng-Rung, and 何昇融. "Analysis of Emission Trading and Market Structure." Thesis, 2003. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/01398210811927057719.
Abstract:
碩士國立臺北大學
經濟學系
91
The emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from the industrial production has caused the global climate change. The big trade-off between economic growth and CO2 reduction has become an important issue for most countries in the world. There are four important strategies, such as command and control, emission tax, emission trading, clean development mechanism, and joint implementation, has been proposed. After the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the emission trading has been treated as the most suitable policy to restrain CO2 emission. Some previous studies assumed that the market of emission trading was static and perfect competition (Baumol & Oates, 1971; Montgomery, 1972). But Hahn (1984) and Westskog (1996) concluded that the market was static but imperfect Competition. Based on the same assumption, Yang (1999) concluded that the emission trading and joint implementation could be applied simultaneously and cost effectively. Rubin (1996) and Rubin & Kling (1997) began to treat the market of emission trading was a dynamic and perfect competition. Thus, the certified emission reduction could be borrowed or lent intertemporally. This study employs the theory of dynamic optimization to analyze the mechanism of emission trading under the perfect competition and oligopoly respectively. There are four major conclusions as follows: 1.When all of three markets, general commodity, traditional factor and emission trading, are perfect competition, each firm has identical marginal CO2 abatement cost.And the intertemporal emission market also can fulfill the goal of cost effectiveness. The same conclusion can be found in some previous studies, such as Montgomery (1972), Falk and Mendelshon (1993), Rubin (1996), and Kling and Rubin (1997). 2.In the steady state, if the total emission endowments are constant, the rule of distribution of emission endowment among the firms will not affect the cost effectiveness with perfect competition. Any improper regulation should not be allowed. And just let the emission market is operated by that invisible hand. However, it is helpful to cut down emission level by adjusting the firm’s inputs in production. 3.In the steady state, the dominant firm decides the price of emission permit with monopoly. Since the demand elasticity of emission permits is , the change of initial emission endowment of the dominant firm will affect each firm’s abatement cost and total abatement costs for all firms. Thus, the rule of distribution of emission endowment among the firms will affect the cost effectiveness with imperfect competition. The same conclusion was also obtained in the studies of Hahn (1984) and Westskog (1996). 4. The invisible hand can’t be operated completely in monopoly. The total abatement costs for all firms can be reduced when the dominant firm’s initial emission endowment is cutting down. Therefore, the big trade-off between efficiency and equity is really existed.
38
Su, Yu-Yuan, and 蘇裕淵. "Managing the Market Risk of Emission Trading." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20994596494941685631.
Abstract:
碩士國立交通大學
財務金融研究所
99
According to the World Bank, the volume of transactions of carbon market has grown rapidly from 710 million tons in 2005 to 8,700 million tons in 2009. The futures commission merchants in Taiwan have been permitted to transact European Climate Exchange carbon financial instruments futures contracts in Intercontinental Exchange since 2008. In this paper we focus on the risk management in the carbon market, using simple moving average model, RiskMetrics model, GARCH model and Power EWMA model to calculate Value-at-Risk. Meanwhile, the performances of these VaR models are compared applying the failure test, capital efficiency and loss severity. After the model selection procedure, we determine an optimal VaR model for emissions trading for financial institutions and regulators.
39
Van, der Merwe Timothy David. "The carbon tax as a market-based enforcement mechanism to ensure compliance with environmental law and address pollution." Diss., 2018. http://uir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/25643.
Abstract:
This study emanates from the worldwide issue of climate change, as well as the need for all nations to make an effort to reduce their carbon emissions and move towards greener economies. It delves into South Africa's current command-and-control environmental enforcement regime and highlights the pitfalls that allow major air polluters to avoid sanction of any form in many instances. This poor environmental enforcement and compliance effectively means that South Africa is unlikely to be capable of meeting targets set under international agreements. The study confirms that environmental enforcement is inadequately addressed in South Africa. This is attributable to the inherent shortcomings of command-and-control approaches, including that they are inflexible and offer few incentives for firms to modify behaviour to reduce emissions. Poor enforcement of environmental legislation results in negative externalities caused by air pollution being borne by people who did not create such pollution. The study therefore advocates the use of market-based mechanisms as an alternative to traditional command-and-control approaches to environmental enforcement.
In light of the South African government's recent publication of the Draft Carbon Tax Bill, carbon taxes as a subset of market-based environmental enforcement mechanisms have the potential to better enforce the polluter pays principle. Mexico, arguably the most forward-thinking developing nation in terms of climate change mitigation, has taken numerous steps towards meeting international commitments, including the implementation of a carbon tax. While South Africa's proposed carbon tax does differ from Mexico's in some respects, the basic premise remains the same and some comparisons can be made in this regard, with accompanying lessons to be learned. Such lessons include that it is imperative that the carbon tax must be set at a high enough rate to meet international commitments whilst at the same time avoiding adverse economic effects, maintaining social welfare and stabilising economic output levels. The proposed carbon tax, while unable to achieve this on its own, is a good place to start and should be utilised in conjunction with the Draft Climate Change Bill to effectively and efficaciously bring about the required change. The proposed carbon tax undoubtedly has the potential to better hold major air polluters responsible for their CO2 and other GHG emissions.Private Law
LL. M.
40
Ketzback, Thor William. "The evolution of offsets and the dawn of emissions trading markets." Thesis, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1961/5297.
41
Swieringa, John Edward. "Price discovery and information linkages in the emission allowance and energy markets." Phd thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/10326.
Abstract:
We provide the first evidence on the catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System. Short-run return dynamics are analysed using a regression approach similar to Fleming, Ostdiek and Whaley (1996), while the permanent contribution of securities to long-run price equilibrium is examined by calculating Hasbrouck‘s (1995) information shares. By employing high frequency data across a wide range of securities, we find that trading costs are a more important determinant of price discovery than the implicit provision of leverage in securities such as futures and options. Securities with low trading costs display greater price discovery than those with high trading costs.
We also examine price discovery within the European markets for coal, natural gas and crude oil. Results show that Brent crude oil futures display greater price discovery than a proxy for the physical Brent market, while there is evidence that West Texas Intermediate futures still dominate price discovery globally. In natural gas markets, UK natural gas futures display greater price discovery than physical trading at North-West Europe‘s main natural gas hubs, though weak links to the crude oil market remain. Due to a lack of liquidity and transparency, it remains difficult to distinguish between coal securities. Overall, our results support the importance of futures contracts as a source of price discovery in contrast with opaque over-the-counter physical trading. Having established where price discovery is taking place in the European emission allowance and energy markets, we examine volatility and information linkages between them by employing a rational expectations framework similar to Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek (1998). The model specifies volatility linkages operating through common information and information spillover channels. We estimate a representation of this model using GMM for bivariate pairings of emission allowances with coal, natural gas and crude oil. We find that emission allowances are most strongly linked to the crude oil market, in spite of more direct economic relationships with coal and natural gas.
42
Freitas, Carlos Jorge Pereira. "Avaliação do Impacto do Mercado de Carbono nos Mercados Elétricos de Portugal e Espanha." Doctoral thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10316/30979.
Abstract:
Tese de doutoramento em Gestão de Empresas, na especialidade de Finanças, apresentada à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de CoimbraO Sistema de Comércio Europeu de Licenças de Emissão (CELE) constitui um dos instrumentos centrais da estratégia da União Europeia para o combate às alterações climáticas, sendo uma ferramenta chave para o desenho de uma solução custo-eficiente na redução das emissões de gases com efeito estufa. O objetivo do nosso trabalho consiste em estudar o impacto da participação dos setores elétricos Ibéricos no CELE nomeadamente pela avaliação da ligação entre os preços das licenças de emissão transacionadas nos mercados de carbono e os preços da eletricidade transacionada nos segmentos português e espanhol do Mercado Ibérico de Energia Elétrica (MIBEL) durante a Fase II (2008-2012) e início da Fase III (2013) de operação do CELE. A eficácia do funcionamento deste mecanismo de sinalização do custo da utilização de licenças de emissão de carbono ao preço da eletricidade é fundamental para que os estímulos à redução das emissões de gases com efeito estufa se propaguem da produção ao consumo. Para testar estatisticamente o vínculo entre aqueles preços recorremos a várias técnicas de ajustamento econométrico adequadas à natureza específica das séries de dados com que trabalhamos. Na modelização mais complexa ajustamos um Modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (VECM) onde os preços da eletricidade, do carbono e dos combustíveis usados na geração elétrica (gás natural e carvão) são modelados em conjunto como variáveis endógenas a que se somam um conjunto de variáveis exógenas de controlo destinadas a acomodar as características especificas de operação dos sistemas elétricos Ibéricos nomeadamente no que respeita ao papel das energias renováveis no abastecimento elétrico. A estimação dos diferentes modelos econométricos permitiu-nos concluir que o preço do carbono, a par do preço dos combustíveis, é relevante para o estabelecimento da relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo (relação de cointegração) à qual o preço da eletricidade está ancorado. Os resultados a que chegamos, em linha com trabalhos publicados para outros mercados europeus de energia elétrica, permitem concluir que os produtores elétricos Ibéricos têm capacidade para fazer refletir no preço da eletricidade o custo de oportunidade associado às licenças de emissão de carbono, tendo beneficiado de condições para acumular rendas económicas (lucros extraordinários) durante a Fase II de funcionamento do CELE uma vez que essas licenças lhes foram atribuídas gratuitamente. Nesta medida, os nossos resultados suportam a decisão da Comissão Europeia de introduzir uma alteração às regras de alocação das licenças de emissão ao setor elétrico no início da Fase III, passando de atribuição gratuita à obrigação de aquisição pelas empresas. Estimando a taxa de repercussão do preço do carbono no preço da eletricidade para diferentes períodos de funcionamento do CELE, concluímos que o vínculo entre aqueles preços se vem enfraquecendo como resultado do colapso do preço nos mercados de carbono, podendo estar a pôr em causa o mecanismo de transmissão do custo do carbono ao preço da eletricidade e por essa via a comprometer a eficácia do sistema no alcance dos seus objetivos ambientais. Nesse caso, desaparecerão os incentivos para que os produtores de eletricidade reduzam as suas emissões, nomeadamente trocando para tecnologias de produção menos intensivas em carbono ou investindo em nova capacidade de geração elétrica não poluente, e os estímulos para que os consumidores (domésticos ou industriais) reduzam no médio e longo prazo o seu consumo, incrementando a eficiência energética. Esta conclusão suporta a opinião dos que defendem a necessidade de implementação de políticas no âmbito do CELE que evitem a manutenção do preço do carbono em níveis excessivamente reduzidos durante longos períodos de tempo.
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and it’s a key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The aim of this work is to investigate the impact of the EU ETS on the Iberian electricity systems throughout the assessment of the link between the carbon price and the wholesale electricity price traded on Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), Portuguese and Spanish systems. Our sample includes all Phase II (2008-2012) and the first year of Phase III (2013) of the EU ETS, from January 2008 to December 2013. The price signal mechanism between the carbon and electricity price is fundamental for an effective carbon cost transmission from production to consumption and thus provide incentives to producers and consumers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We tested empirically the link between those two prices through several econometric adjustment techniques specially designed to deal with financial time series. In the most complex econometric modeling, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relationships, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price, carbon price and fuel (natural gas and coal) prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables. Additionally, and motivated by the purpose of accounting for the specific operating conditions of Portuguese and Spanish electrical systems, a set of exogenous variables was integrated into the model, namely the amount of renewable energy. We found a long-run equilibrium relationship (cointegration relationship) between electricity price, carbon price and fuel prices demonstrating that carbon price, as the other fuels, plays an important role in formulating the equilibrium price of electricity. These empirical results, in line with studies concerning other European electricity markets, show evidence of a significant link between carbon and electricity prices demonstrating that during Phase II of EU ETS Iberian power producers passed on the opportunity costs of freely allocated emission allowances to the electricity price, enabling power companies to get windfall profits. Therefore, these results support the change in the allocation rule of emission allowances to the electricity sector, from grandfathering to auctioning, implemented by the European Commission for the Phase III of the EU ETS. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result of the collapse on carbon price and consequently putting at risk the mechanism for transmission of the carbon cost to the electricity price and therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. In such case, the incentives for electricity producers to reduce their emission, through the use of less carbon intensive production technologies or the investment in renewables, and the stimuli for end-users to cut their long term consumption, through increased energy efficiency, will disappear. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.
43
Papy, Jacques. "Vers un marché du carbone au Québec : éléments de réflexion à la lumière de l'analyse économique du droit." Thèse, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/10527.
Abstract:
Dans le cadre de la Western Climate Iniative, le Québec a déployé en 2012, un système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émission de gaz à effet de serre (SPEDE). Il s’agit de l’un des premiers régimes de ce type en Amérique du Nord et celui-ci pourrait à terme, constituer l'un des maillons d’un marché commun du carbone à l’échelle du continent. Toutefois, le SPEDE appartient à une catégorie d’instruments économiques de protection de l’environnement encore peu connue des juristes. Il s’inscrit en effet dans la régulation économique de l’environnement et repose sur des notions tirées de la théorie économique, dont la rareté, la propriété et le marché. La thèse s’insère donc dans le dialogue entre juristes et économistes autour de la conception et de la mise en œuvre de ce type d’instrument.
Afin d’explorer son architecture et de révéler les enjeux juridiques qui le traversent, nous avons eu recours à la méthode de l’analyse économique du droit. Celle-ci permet notamment de montrer les dynamiques d'incitation et d’efficacité qui sont à l'œuvre dans les règles qui encadrent le SPEDE. Elle permet également à donner un aperçu du rôle décisif joué par la formulation des règles de droit dans l’opérationnalisation des hypothèses économiques sous-jacentes à cette catégorie d’instrument. L’exploration est menée par l’entremise d’une modélisation progressive de l’échange de droits d’émission qui prend en compte les coûts de transaction. Le modèle proposé dans la thèse met ainsi en lumière, de manière générale, les points de friction qui sont susceptibles de survenir aux différentes étapes de l'échange de droits d'émission et qui peuvent faire obstacle à son efficacité économique.
L’application du modèle aux règles du SPEDE a permis de contribuer à l’avancement des connaissances en donnant aux juristes un outil permettant de donner une cohérence et une intelligibilité à l’analyse des règles de l’échange. Elle a ainsi fourni une nomenclature des règles encadrant l’échange de droits d’émission. Cette nomenclature fait ressortir les stratégies de diversification de l’échange, d’institutionnalisation de ses modalités ainsi que les enjeux de la surveillance des marchés, dont celui des instruments dérivés adossés aux droits d’émission, dans un contexte de fragmentation des autorités de tutelle.As part of the launch of the Western Climate Initiative, the province of Québec has implemented on January 1st, 2012, one of the first carbon emissions trading system in North America (CETS). Such a system could in time become part of the emerging regulated market for carbon on the continent. However, it belongs to a category of economic instruments still timidly explored in legal literature. The CETS forms part of the economic regulation of the environment and is based on concepts drawn from the economic theory such as scarcity, property and the market. The thesis aims at contributing to the dialogue between jurists and economists around the design and implementation of this type of instrument. In order to explore its architecture and uncover the legal issues at play, we applied the teachings of law and economics in order to reveal the underlying dynamics of incitation and efficiency built in the CETS regulations and highlight the pivotal role played by the formulation of legal rules in their operationalization. The exploration is conducted through a progressive modelling of the exchange of emission rights, which takes into account transaction costs. The resulting model brings to light friction points that are likely to occur at different stages of the exchange of emission rights and might negatively impact its economic efficiency. The thesis contributes to the advancement of knowledge by offering jurists a coherent and intelligible legal analysis of the rules governing the exchange of emission rights in the CETS. Thus, it provides a systematic arrangement of these rules structured around the diversification strategies of the exchange and the institutionalization of its terms. It also raises market surveillance issues, particularly of the carbon derivatives market, in a context of fragmentation of market authorities.