Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Elections'

The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by equivalent free voting procedures1 The right to participate freely in the government of one’s country is recognized and protected in many international human rights instruments. These include the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR), the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms4 and the American Convention on Human Rights (ACHR). This right has generally been understood to include among others things, the right to vote and be voted through an election process that is free, fair transparent and convincing.
Thesis (LLM (Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa)) -- University of Pretoria, 2010.
A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Law University of Pretoria, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Law (LLM in Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa). Prepared under the supervision of Prof.Babally Sall of the Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Gusto Berger, Senegal. 2010.
http://www.chr.up.ac.za/
Centre for Human Rights
LLM

Dissertation (Ph.D.) - Simon Fraser University, 2006.
Theses (School of Communication) / Simon Fraser University. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 276-296). Also issued in digital format and available on the World Wide Web.

Holding elections has become a global norm, even in autocracies; at the same time, there is mounting evidence to suggest that flawed or failed elections pose serious risks for political stability, legitimacy, and participation. Scholars and practitioners alike increasingly see citizen election monitoring and advocacy groups to be a partial remedy to electoral malpractice. But existing studies about the impacts of domestic monitors have a number of shortcomings: they do not address the question of where and why citizen election monitors emerge; there is little agreement about the causal mechanisms by which domestic monitors would strengthen elections; and they fail to explain why some monitoring groups achieve desirable outcomes while the majority do not. In addressing these gaps, the present study theorizes and investigates empirically the causes and consequences of domestic election monitoring through the lens of agenda-building theory. Bottom-up movements and public interest groups have been successful in building agendas in a range of issue spaces, sometimes leading to quite rapid policy change. But similar successes have not materialized in the policy area of electoral integrity. The study developes the first systematic and globally comparative dataset of domestic election monitoring initiatives to investigate this puzzle. It encompasses more than 1,000 groups in 123 countries, and measures media attention to these groups, their organizational characteristics, and advocacy strategies, based on an organizational survey, news content analysis, and in-person interviews with activists. Drawing on this evidence, the research confirms the agenda-building model and demonstrates that only well resourced, media-savvy, and specialized groups attract public attention, the crucial necessary condition for agenda-building success, whereas the majority of groups remain unnoticed. This study argues that it should come as no surprise that civic groups have a limited ability to improve elections, given their struggle to garner attention. The study furthermore argues that this is the case because agenda-building in the issue space of electoral integrity is exceptionally difficult for a number of reasons: electoral integrity is a redistributive issue with very high stakes; domestic monitors predominantly operate under hybrid regimes where the institutional framework is detrimental to public interest articulation; and the groups struggle to legitimize themselves vis-à-vis their domestic audiences given their funding from ‘Western’ donors. These findings contribute to agenda-building theory by clarifying the importance of variation in issues, regimes, and actors for attention-getting. These factors have thus far been neglected due to the predominant focus in the literature on cases from North America and Western Europe. Overall, the study’s findings do not give much occasion for optimism. Only very dense, well-mediated, and well-resourced monitoring ecologies should be expected to make any impact on election integrity in the long run. The neglect of communication dynamics may have led existing explanations of observer influence to draw overly optimistic conclusions.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Africa has made tremendous progress over the past decades in its transition to democratic regimes. When evaluating the leverage such an enormous change has, and the haste Africa was in when making this change, the continent has been able to achieve a considerable amount of revision in their regimes. One fundamental aspect of a democracy is competitive Presidential elections. This has however shown to be a problem in Africa as many cases of violent elections have been reported on, with Nigeria’s 2011 elections being the latest example. The focus of this thesis is on the causal factors behind electoral violence in African democracies. More specifically, a comparative analysis of Kenya’s 2007 Elections and Zimbabwe’s 2008 elections is presented. The five possible causal factors under analysis are 1) free and fair elections, 2) international assistance, 3) political/electoral systems and 4) socio-economic factors and 5) ethnicity. Additionally, background information on the history of Kenya and Zimbabwe is presented. The research is conducted around the framework of one of the foremost African scholars in the field, Gilbert Khadiagala. His typology suggests two angles ‘In the first order of causes, electoral violence is the outcome of events and circumstances that emanate from broader political conflicts, particularly in societies that are beset by ethnic, communal and sectarian fissures. In the second category, electoral violence is a consequence of imperfect electoral rules; imperfections that allow some parties to manipulate elections through electoral fraud, vote buying, and rigging’ (Khadiagala, 2010:17). Next to this a discussion on Khadiagala’s fourth wave of democracy is analysed which proves of major importance for Kenya and Zimbabwe to prevent election violence. Not only because of the fact that the contemporary form of their democracies clearly show major flaws, but also because a democracy has proved to encourage socio-economic development. Firstly, the findings suggest that the people are fed up with stolen elections and they are demanding the free and fair conduct of elections. The use of violence is the means to express this ‘demand’. Furthermore, in both Kenya and Zimbabwe, the land occupation of colonizers caused the start of deep social cleavages and ethnic tensions. In Kenya it is concluded that the cause of violence was not purely the flawed election process, this was merely a trigger for underlying ethnic tensions. In Zimbabwe in turn, the violence was mainly sparked by President Mugabe’s government who used extreme means to gain votes. The system was highly manipulated and due to weak institutions and electoral rules, President Mugabe was able to rig the elections. The role of international assistance is discussed and proves to be of little influence towards election violence. In the case of Zimbabwe, no international observers were invited, in the case of Kenya, international observers were invited and present. In both cases violence broke out. The establishment of a stronger socio-economic society proves vital for the development of a democracy. The connection between ethnic, social and economic differences to the electoral system recognizes that further deepening and strengthening of the democratic institutions needs to become a reality in order to conduct more peaceful elections. The elections are far from free and fair and as a result of weak democratic institutions the possibility of rigging is created. With the underlying ethnic tensions and broader political cleavages, Kenya and Zimbabwe proved prone to violence.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Wanneer daar in ag geneem word dat Afrika onder moeilike omstandighede en in ‘n baie kort tydperk, beweeg het van meerderheid autokratiese state na demokrasieë, is dit regverdig om te argumenteer dat Afrika ‘n kenmerkende vordering gemaak het in die laaste dekades om ‘n demokratiese samenleving te berwerkstellig. Helaas, n fundamentele aspek van n demokrasie is die beoefening van gereelde en kompeterend verkiesings. Oor die jare is daar bewys dat verkiesings n problematiese aspek van demokrasie is in meeste Afrika state, meerderheid van verkiesings in Afrika is geneig om uit te loop in konflik en geweld. Dus is die fokus van die studie op die faktore wat bydra tot konflik gedurende n verkiesings tydperk in jong Afrika demokrasieë. Meer spesifiek sal daar n vergelykende studie gedoen word van die 2007 verkiesing in Kenia en die 2008 verkiesing in Zimbabwe. Die vyf faktore wat bydra tot konflik gedurende verkiesings is : 1) vry en regverdige verkiesings, 2) internasionale hulpvelening, 3) politiese en verkiesingsstelsels, 4) sosio-ekonomiese faktore, 5) etnisiteit, word elk bespreek. Ook word die agtergrond van beide die verkiesings in Zimbabwe en Kenia bespreek. Die teoretiese aspekte van die studie is gebaseer op die werk van Gilbert Khadiagala, n hoogs ge-respekteerde kenner op die gebied. Sy teorie veronderstel dat konflik plaasvind as gevolg van politiek konflikte en etniese verskille. Tweedens, beweer hy dat verkiesingskonflik n produk is van foutiewe verkiesingsstelsels, veral waar een groep die ander groep kan manipuleer en waar bedrog moontlik is. Langs dit is 'n bespreking oor Khadiagala se vierde golf van demokrasie ontleed en bewys dit van groot belang vir Kenia en Zimbabwe om verkiesings geweld te voorkom. Nie net as gevolg van die feit dat die demokrasieë duidelik groot foute toon nie, maar ook en meer belangrik, omdat 'n demokrasie sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling aanmoedig. Daar word gevind dat meeste mense eenvoudig keelvol is met ‘gesteelde’ verkiesings en dat hulle begin aandring op vry en regverdige verkiesings en konflik en geweld is die enigste manier om hulle wense te verwesenlik. Ook, in beide Kenia en Zimbabwe het kolonialiseerders n groot skeuring veroorsaak tussen verskillende etniese groepe in beide lande, wat vandag voordurende etniese spanning veroorsaak. In Kenia blyk dit dat dit die etniese verskille was wat gelei het tot die verkiesingsgeweld in 2007 eerder as foutiewe verkiesingsstelsels. In Zimbabwe was dit verkiesingskorrupsie en President Robert Mugabe se oneerlike wyse van stemme werf wat gelei het tot konflik. Dit is aangetoon dat die aanwesigheid van internationale hulp min invloed het op verkiesings geweld. In die geval van Zimbabwe, is daar geen internasionale waarnemers genooi nie en in die geval van Kenia, is daar wel internasionale waarnemers is genooi en was hulle daadwerklik aanwesig. In beide gevalle het geweld uitgebreek. Daar word gevind dat ‘n sterke sosio-ekonomiese sameleving belangrik is vir demokratiese ontwikkling van ‘n land. Verder word daar geargumenteer dat sterk en onafhanklik politieke en demokratiese instansies bevorder moet word ten einde meer vreedsame verkiesings te hou. Tans in Afrika is verkiesings ver van vry en regverdig, gesamentlik met etniese spanning kan dit n plofbare situasie veroorsaak soos bewys in Kenia en Zimbabwe.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2006.
Title from first page of PDF file (viewed June 21, 2006). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 261-277).

Previous studies of the first direct elections to the Hong Kong Legislative Council (LegCo) in 1991 were largely focused on the effect of the Tiananmen Incident on voters' choice, neglecting the domestic dimension of social conflict evolving within Hong Kong from the 1970s. Adopting the social cleavage approach, the present thesis argues that two electoral cleavages, centre-periphery and collective consumption, were important by 1991. It, therefore, explores the international, social and political contexts within which the 1991 LegCo direct elections took place in order to explain the political alignments and electoral cleavages during the period 1982-1991. First, the study examines the Sino-British attitudes towards political reforms in Hong Kong and the development of the centre-periphery cleavage in the 1980s as the two countries negotiated the transfer of sovereignty. Second, the expansion of the Hong Kong Government's activities and its privatisation programmes are analyzed in order to describe the increasingly intimate relations between government and society and to show that, as a result, conflicts evolved over issues of collective consumption. Third, the emerging competition at the time of the 1991 elections is discussed with reference to political mobilisation and alignments during the previous decade. Fourth, the electoral market of 1991 is examined to explain voters' choice. Finally, the election results are analyzed to demonstrate that two electoral cleavages, centre-periphery and collective consumption, played a significant role. The data used in this study were collected from: official documents, such as the Hong Kong Government Gazette, the Sino-British Joint Declaration, the Basic Law, the Hong Kong Census and By-census reports, the annual reports of various government departments; opinion polls and one exit poll of the 1991 LegCo direct elections; personal interviews with leading political leaders; campaign materials and election debates on television; and newspaper cuttings.

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This study researches whether there has been abnormal stock market behaviour in Brazil as a consequence of election news (observed via opinion polls), regarding the last Brazilian presidential election, held in October 2014. Via applying event study methodology, the research on the Ibovespa and Petrobras suggests that events in which Rousseff was gaining in share have been subject to negative abnormal returns, and events where Rousseff was loosing in share have led to positive abnormal returns. Moreover, volatility has been significantly elevated during the election period and volume has been found to have slightly increased.
Este estudo investiga se houve comportamento anormal no mercado de ações no Brasil decorrente de notícias sobre as últimas eleições presidenciais brasileiras (através da utilização de sondagens), realizadas em outubro de 2014. Utilizando uma metodologia de estudos de evento (event studies), a investigação sobre o Ibovespa e a Petrobras sugere que, nos períodos em que Dilma melhorava a sua posição nas sondagens existiram retornos anormais negativos e, nos períodos em que Rousseff piorava a sua posição, existiram retornos anormais positivos. Além disso, a volatilidade foi bastante elevada durante o período eleitoral tendo o volume de transações aumentado ligeiramente.

In the post-Cold War world, a multi-party election is now almost always seen as the crucial culmination of a peace process after a protracted but inconclusive civil war. The inputs and outcomes of post-conflict elections in Africa, however, are far from homogenous. The breadth and relative strengths of candidates and the range of results that have emerged from four national polls in Sierra Leone and Liberia after similar highly destructive civil conflicts are testament to this conclusion. The varying degrees of stability and instability that have ensued are further evidence which has had enormous impacts on the countries concerned. Although in essence a domestic procedure to select a new political dispensation, outside forces also hold considerable influence. While the political capacity of nascent parties, often transformed from former military rebel groups, varies considerably and has huge repercussions on the elections, the shift to a more liberal international discourse has also had its effects, particularly in the criminalisation of former combatants and the arbitrary application of post-conflict 'justice'. Both factors intertwine to shape the candidates, results and outcomes of the polls. The post-conflict election serves to select a new government and leader, but its other important role must be to avoid a return to conflict. There is then an underlying need for political solutions and inclusivity in the peace process. Equally, the election has an important role in reconciliation, whether by starting the process of addressing grievances pent up over decades which played a considerable part in the outbreak of conflict, or conversely by frustrating any potential for positive political change that has emerged from the violence.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2001.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 79-82).
This dissertation consists of three chapters exploring the role of incomplete information and learning in elections. The first chapter examines the dynamics of voter learning about candidate ability in repeated elections. The dynamic process of belief revision gives rise to incentives that vary strongly over a politician's career. In particular, candidates become entrenched over time, so, even though they exert little effort, the voter cannot commit to throw incumbents out of office. I embed the basic model in a common agency framework to study seniority norms in legislative organization. The model organizes many of the stylized facts about the U.S. Congress, including the incumbency advantage, the dynamics of effort allocation over a career, the importance of constituency service, and seniority norms in committee assignments. In chapter 2, I study a simple model of campaign finance with possibly asymmetric candidates. Each candidate has the option of promising favors to interest groups in exchange for the funds they need to reveal information to the voters. When the incumbent has a sufficiently large ex-ante advantage, the challenger will be unable to raise funds at all.
(cont.) In this case, incumbent spending is unambiguously too high from the perspective of voter welfare. In fact, if the value of a good candidate is high relative to the value of favors a winner can promise, it will be socially optimal to simultaneously restrict spending by the incumbent and encourage spending by the challenger. In chapter 3, (joint with Aaron Hantman) we propose a simple model of rational learning in elections. A linear approximation to the model is used to justify a version of the Gelman-King (1990) estimator of the incumbency advantage. Restricting the model to elections for which the linear approximation should be valid produce different estimates for the incumbency advantage than those found by either Gelman and King or more traditional studies bases on the "slurge".
by Scott Ashworth.
Ph.D.

This dissertation studies political dynasties in democratic countries. Dynasties are common in all professions. However, for the profession of politics, in which succession depends no longer on dynastic succession but on running successful electoral campaigns, understanding how and why political power can be bequeathed is particularly important. Factors such as name recognition (the voter demand side) and political networks (the elite supply side) are potential explanations of the continued presence of dynasties in parliaments. This dissertation studies both the voter demand side and the elite supply side of the phenomenon. I first discuss the related literature on political dynasties, political selection, political quality, and the personal vote. Voting for dynasties can be rational, and the presence of dynastic legislators perfectly legitimate. Political dynasties may thrive in electoral systems that encourage personal voting, such as is used in Belgium. In a first paper, I show that in the Belgian 2010 General Election voters preferred dynastic candidates. Institutional changes may change such (dynastic) elite equilibria. In a second paper, we exploit the constituency-level variation in the franchise extension associated with the Second and Third Reform Acts in Britain. However, we find no effect of these reforms on the position of dynasties or the aristocracy in politics. Changes to the political career of legislators may also affect their chances of establishing or continuing a dynasty. The third paper studies dynasties in the UK House of Commons. I employ random variation in tenure length introduced by winning vs. losing a first re-election by a narrow margin. Surprisingly, I find no effect of tenure length on an MP’s chances of establishing a dynasty in the nineteenth century. However, selection into cabinet is more likely if the MP had a relative in the cabinet before.

The aim of my thesis is to analyze the process of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election and identify the factors that had the biggest influence on the election results. The paper is divided into three chapters. The first chapter describes the rules for electing the U.S. president, the second chapter focuses on issues and the third on other factors that decided the election. My thesis is thus a study of how the U.S. president was elected in 2008 and of the issues currently most discussed in the American society.

The uniqueness of 2012 Presidential election campaign lies in some new trends: for the first time Internet played such an important role in influencing voters. It's not just about traditional official websites of the candidates, but first and foremost about campaigning in blogs and social networks. The opposition, including "off-system" one (which is advocating the overthrow of the ruling elite), was much more active in this field. The Internet space became the scene of this conflict, and we should expect that it would only escalate in the future.

This quantitative study sought to investigate the differences in the electoral outcomes of school bond elections in Missouri from 2009-2016 based on election timing. The researcher utilized election timing theory as a framework for the study. Data from Missouri school bond elections was compiled from online databases, the Missouri State Auditor’s office, and archived newspaper reports. Results suggest that differences exist in electoral outcomes for school bond issues based on election timing. The study concludes with recommendations for Missouri school administrators, designed to aid in the successful passage of school bond issues.

The purpose of this research is to identify major factors that can be used to explain and predict the process of growth in union membership as represented by union victories in certification elections. The emphasis of this research is on organization and social-structural level factors. The logistic regression procedure reveals that organization level variables are most significant in explaining union victories in certification elections. Among the organization level variables, Unit Size, as defined by the NLRB, is the most significant variable in each year of the study and across all industrial classifications.

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What is the effect of elections on real assets? Can we measure the effect on price only observing one outcome? This dissertation attempts to estimate these effects using a methodology based in stock options. The model developed adapts the benchmark Black-Scholes model to incorporate two new parameters: a perfectly anticipated jump in price (∆) and a series of daily probabilities (Θ) reflecting beliefs about outcomes of the election. We apply this method to 2014 Brazilian Presidential Elections and Petrobras - an important oil company in Brazil - using market data from the second election round. The results found show 65-77% difference in company valuation, depending on election outcome. This is equivalent to approximately 2.5% of Brazil’s GDP in 2014.
Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Exploring elections features from a geographical perspective is the focus of this study. Its primary objective is to develop a scientific approach based on geoinformation technology (GIT) that promotes deeper understanding how geographical settings affect the spatial and temporal variations of voting behaviour and election outcomes. For this purpose, the five parliamentary elections (1991-2005) following the political turnaround in 1990 in the South East European reform country Albania have been selected as a case study. Elections, like other social phenomena that do not develop uniformly over a territory, inherit a spatial dimension. Despite of fact that elections have been researched by various scientific disciplines ranging from political science to geography, studies that incorporate their spatial dimension are still limited in number and approaches. Consequently, the methodologies needed to generate an integrated knowledge on many facets that constitute election features are lacking. This study addresses characteristics and interactions of the essential elements involved in an election process. Thus, the baseline of the approach presented here is the exploration of relations between three entities: electorate (political and sociodemographic features), election process (electoral system and code) and place (environment where voters reside). To express this interaction the concept of electoral pattern is introduced. Electoral patterns are defined by the study as the final view of election results, chiefly in tabular and/or map form, generated by the complex interaction of social, economic, juridical, and spatial features of the electorate, which has occurred at a specific time and in a particular geographical location. GIT methods of geoanalysis and geovisualization are used to investigate the characteristics of electoral patterns in their spatial and temporal distribution. Aggregate-level data modelled in map form were used to analyse and visualize the spatial distribution of election patterns components and relations. The spatial dimension of the study is addressed in the following three main relations: One, the relation between place and electorate and its expression through the social, demographic and economic features of the electorate resulting in the profile of the electorate’s context; second, the electorate-election interaction which forms the baseline to explore the perspective of local contextual effects in voting behaviour and election results; third, the relation between geographical location and election outcomes reflecting the implication of determining constituency boundaries on election results. To address the above relations, three types of variables: geo, independent and dependent, have been elaborated and two models have been created. The Data Model, developed in a GIS environment, facilitates structuring of election data in order to perform spatial analysis. The peculiarity of electoral patterns – a multidimensional array that contains information on three variables, stored in data layers of dissimilar spatial units of reference and scales of value measurement – prohibit spatial analysis based on the original source data. To perform a joint spatial analysis it is therefore mandatory to restructure the spatial units of reference while preserving their semantic content. In this operation, all relevant electoral as well as socio-demographic data referenced to different administrative spatial entities are re-referenced to uniform grid cells as virtual spatial units of reference. Depending on the scale of data acquisition and map presentation, a cell width of 0.5 km has been determined. The resulting fine grid forms the basis of subsequent data analyses and correlations. Conversion of the original vector data layers into target raster layers allows for unification of spatial units, at the same time retaining the existing level of detail of the data (variables, uniform distribution over space). This in turn facilitates the integration of the variables studied and the performance of GIS-based spatial analysis. In addition, conversion to raster format makes it possible to assign new values to the original data, which are based on a common scale eliminating existing differences in scale of measurement. Raster format operations of the type described are well-established data analysis techniques in GIT, yet they have rarely been employed to process and analyse electoral data. The Geovisualization Model, developed in a cartographic environment, complements the Data Model. As an analog graphic model it facilitates efficient communication and exploration of geographical information through cartographic visualization. Based on this model, 52 choropleth maps have been generated. They represent the outcome of the GIS-based electoral data analysis. The analog map form allows for in-depth visual analysis and interpretation of the distribution and correlation of the electoral data studied. For researchers, decision makers and a wider public the maps provide easy-to-access information on and promote easy-to-understand insight into the spatial dimension, regional variation and resulting structures of the electoral patterns defined.
Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie ist die Erforschung der aus politischen Wahlen resultierenden Raumstrukturen mit Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung. Auf der Basis eines gemeinsamen räumlichen Bezuges wird es durch die Verknüpfung der Wahlergebnisse mit ausgewählten wirtschaftlichen, demographischen und sozialen Parametern möglich, die räumliche Verteilung, Kernräume (Hochburgen) und räumlich-strukturelle Verknüpfungen der Wahlergebnisse politischer Parteien zu untersuchen. Die Resultate tragen zu einem besseren Verständnis der Ergebnisse politischer Wahlen und deren räumliche Dimensionen auf nationaler bis lokaler Ebene bei. Die Studie wird am Beispiel der fünf Parlamentswahlen (1991-2005) des südosteuropäischen Reformstaates Albanien durchgeführt, die seit der politischen Wende 1990 stattgefunden haben. Ausgangspunkt der Untersuchung ist die Tatsache, dass Wahlen, wie zahllose andere gesellschaftliche Phänomene auch, eine räumliche Dimension besitzen. Diese kommt in der territorialen Organisation politischer Wahlen in Wahlkreisen explizit zum Ausdruck. In der parlamentarischen Vertretung der politischen Parteien spiegelt sich dies allerdings nur indirekt wider. Zwar waren die parteipolitischen Aspekte politischer Wahlen als auch die parlamentarische Repräsentation sowie die soziodemographischen Strukturen der Wahlbevölkerung Gegenstand einer Vielzahl von Studien aus Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften. Dies auch gilt für die Geographie. Die erwähnte räumliche Dimension politischer Wahlen wurde bislang aber seltener in das Zentrum von Untersuchungen gestellt. Es mangelt insofern auch an spezifischen Methodologien, die eine integrierte Untersuchung aller relevanten Wahlparameter ermöglichen und eine umfassende Bewertung alle Aspekte des Wahlwahlverhaltens einer Wahlbevölkerung bei politischen Wahlen unterstützen. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht strukturelle wie räumliche Merkmale und Zusammenhänge der wesentlichen Faktoren, die bei politischen Wahlen relevant sind. Ausgangspunkt ist die Untersuchung so genannter Wahlmuster, die durch das Zusammenwirken folgender Faktoren entstehen: Wahlprozess (Wahlsystem, Wahlcode), politische und soziodemographische Kenndaten der Wahlbevölkerung, räumliche Ausbreitung und regionale Struktur der Wahlbezirke sowie die räumliche Verteilung und Strukturierung der Wahlbevölkerung. Als Wahlmuster wird die endgültige Repräsentation von Wahlergebnissen, i.d.R. in Tabellen- und Kartenform, betrachtet. Wahlmuster entstehen durch komplexe Interaktion der sozialen, wirtschaftlichen, juristischen und räumlichen Merkmale der Wahlbevölkerung zu einer bestimmten Zeit (Wahltag) in einem bestimmten Raum (Wahlgebiet). Für die Untersuchung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dimension der Wahlmuster werden Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung eingesetzt. Die räumliche Dimension wird dabei in drei Merkmalsgruppen untersucht: Erstens, die Beziehungen zwischen Raum (Standort) und Wahlbevölkerung, wie sie sich in den demographischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Kennwerten der Wahlbevölkerung manifestieren. Zweitens, die Interaktion zwischen Walbevölkerung und Wahl, die die Grundlage bildet, um regionale Kontexteffekte bei Wahlverhalten und Wahlergebnissen zu untersuchen. Drittens, die Verknüpfung von Wahlergebnissen und deren räumlichen Bezügen, wie sie sich in der stetigen Veränderung der Wahlkreisgrenzen niederschlägt. Um die genannten Merkmalsgruppen zu untersuchen, werden drei Variablengruppen gebildet: räumliche, unabhängige, abhängige Variablen. Ihre raumzeitlichen Interaktionen werden mittels zweier raumbezogener Modelle untersucht. Das graphikfreie Datenmodell wird in einem Geoinformationssystem erstellt und erlaubt die Strukturierung der Wahldaten. Dies bildet eine Voraussetzung für die nachfolgende räumliche Analyse. Das besondere Kennzeichen der Wahlmuster – eine mehrdimensionale Matrix der Variableninformation, die in unterschiedlichen, nicht aggregierbaren administrativen Raumbezugseinheiten vorliegt – behindert die räumliche Analyse der Originaldaten. Um dennoch räumliche Analysen durchzuführen, ist es erforderlich, den Raumbezug zu verändern bei gleichzeitiger Beibehaltung der thematischen Merkmale. Hierbei werden alle Wahldaten sowie die relevanten soziodemographischen Daten auf eine gemeinsame Raumbezugseinheit bezogen. Statt unterschiedlich administrativ abgegrenzter Raumeinheiten werden regelmäßige Rasterzellen gleicher Maschenweite als Raumbezugseinheiten definiert und den bisherigen, separaten Raummustern der Variablen überlagert. Auf diese Weise wird die räumliche Gleichverteilung aller Variablen in eine gemeinsame räumliche Bezugsbasis überführt, ohne dass die semantischen Merkmale verändert werden. Entsprechend dem Erfassungs- und Präsentationsmaßstab wurde eine Maschenweite von 0,5 km gewählt. Der hieraus resultierende feingranulare Raumgitter bildet die gemeinsame Basis für die nunmehr möglich integrierte räumliche Analyse aller Merkmalsgruppen. Die hier beschriebene rasterbasierte Raumanalyse stellt eine eingeführte Methode der GIS-basierten Geoinformationsverarbeitung dar. Sie wurde bislang jedoch selten zur Verarbeitung und Analyse von Wahldaten eingesetzt. Das mit dem Datenmodell korrespondierende graphikbezogene Visualisierungsmodell wird in einer Kartenkonstruktionsumgebung erstellt und erlaubt die fachgerechte kartographische Veranschaulichung ausgewählter Analyseergebnisse des Datenmodells. Daten- und Kartenmodell sind durch einen Datenfilter verknüpft, der die erforderliche Datenkonversion ermöglicht. Auf Basis des Visualisierungsmodells wurden zweiundfünfzig Kartenmodelle des Kartogramm- bzw. Kartodiagrammtyps erzeugt. Sie ermöglichen die vertiefte visuelle Exploration, Analyse und Interpretation der räumlichen Verteilung und Korrelation der untersuchten Wahldaten. Komplementär zum graphikfreien Datenmodell eröffnet das Visualisierungsmodell Fachwissenschaftlern, politischen Entscheidungsträgern und - in begrenztem Umfang – einer interessierten Öffentlichkeit einen intuitiven Erkenntniszugang zur den räumlichen Dimensionen, der regionalen Variation der Wahlergebnisse und den resultierenden raumgebundenen Wahlmustern.

This dissertation investigates the relationship between elections and authoritarian rule with a focus on the case of China's adoption of elections at the grassroots level. In this dissertation, I look at the incentives facing Chinese local governments in choosing between holding competitive elections or state-controlled elections, and how the selection of electoral rules shapes the public's preferences over political institutions and influences the citizens' political behaviors, especially voting in elections and participation in contentious activities. The overarching theme in this dissertation proposes that the sources and consequences of Chinese local elections are conditioned on the state-owned resources and the governing costs. When the amount of state-owned resources to rule the local society is limited, the paucity of resources will incentivize authoritarian governments to liberalize grassroots elections to offset the governance costs. The various levels of election liberalization will lead to different consequences in the public's political behavior. An abundance of state-owned resources not only discourages rulers from sharing power with the local society, but also supplies the rulers with strong capacity to obtain loyalty from voters when elections are adopted. As a result, elections under authoritarian governments with an abundance of state-owned resources will see more loyalist voters than elections with authoritarian governments with fewer state-owned resources. In addition, the varieties of election practices will exert impacts on public opinion toward the authoritarian government: awareness of elections will enhance public trust in the government and decrease the public's intention to challenge the incumbents' authority while at the same time increasing the public's faith in the institutions, thereby encouraging the public to adopt official channels to air their grievances. The analysis of the village-level as well as individual-level survey data and cases lends empirical supports to the argument. First, I find that the governing costs—measured by the size of labor force—are significantly and positively associated with the likelihood that local officials allow the villagers to freely nominate candidates. Second, I find that party members are more likely to vote in rural elections than urban elections while urban elections attract citizens with higher levels of democratic consciousness. The rural-urban divide in voter type indicates that the possession of economic resources by rural grassroots governments helps mobilize rural loyalist voters to participate in village committee elections, whereas the lack of such resources by urban governments discourages regime loyalist but encourage democratic voters to turn out to vote in urban elections. Third, I find significant evidence that citizens who are aware of grassroots elections are less likely to engage in contentious activities such as protest, strikes or demonstrations. Yet, the awareness of elections also encourages citizens to more frequently adopt, shangfang (petition), a government-sponsored conflict resolution mechanism, than those who are not aware of such elections. The implications of these findings suggest that the capability of state in controlling resources is vital to the success or failure of elections in stabilizing authoritarian regimes. The findings also provide an assessment on the substantial influence of the rural and urban grassroots elections in China's subnational democratization.

Today Namibia is at the crossroads of its independence. The agony of death and destruction that the Namibians have endured for the past 105 years of colonial oppression is about to come to an end and freedom is in sight. The process of transition to independence has already started. On 1 November 1989, the Namibian people will exercise their long-denied right to self-determination by electing their own leaders who. by virtue of being elected by the masses will have the sovereign right to draft the constitution of independent Namibia. This will bring about a new political and socio-economic order. The task before the Namibian people is to seize this historic opportunity and ensure that they join hands to safeguard the revolutionary gains we have made in bringing our country to the threshold of independence. Seizing this opportunity means, first, to register as a voter, and second, to vote and send to the Constituent Assembly men. and women with a revolutionary will, honourable record, vision for a better future, integrity, experience and proven ability to fight for the interests of the broad masses of the Namibian people. Such men and women are to be found in SWAPO. SWAPO has stood tall in the face of formidable odds over the last twenty-nine years of its struggle to free Namibia. Because of this fact. SWAPO had participated in the formulation of Resolution 435 and fought bravely for the last 11 years for its implementation. The motivating force behind this struggle has always been to guarantee that power is given to the Namibian people to decide the future of our country' through free and fair elections. Now that Resolution 435 is being implemented, the Central Committee of SWAPO has the honour to place before the people of Namibia its concrete programme of action in the form of SWAPO’s policy positions on a broad spectrum of political, economic, social and cultural issues. Together, these policy'positions form SWAPO's Election Manifesto.
sponsored by the Centre for Development Studies, University of the Western Cape & the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, November 6-16, 1991

In recent years, judicial elections have undergone a transformation: races once characterized by low levels of competition, interest and participation are now comparable, in some states, to races for governor or senator. Elections for the bench as a whole are now more expensive, competitive and politicized than ever before. Arguably the most influential change in the last ten years has been the emergence of independent expenditures by political action committees and other groups in races for seats on state supreme courts. Despite the growth of this type of spending, our understanding of independent expenditures is rather limited, as the distinction between independent expenditures and direct contributions to candidates is rarely made clear.I address this in this dissertation by examining the patterns of independent spending in states with elected supreme courts. In doing so, I develop a theoretical framework to explain the decision of individual groups to support a judicial candidate independently. I argue that this decision is shaped largely by the campaign regulations imposed on judicial candidates and their potential supporters. Expectations from this theory are tested throughout the remainder of the dissertation using an original set of data drawn directly from state disclosure records. I find that independent expenditures have been concentrated in only a few states in recent years and that campaign regulations are influential in shaping this aggregate behavior. Contribution limits, in particular, redirect money from candidates' campaigns to independent expenditures. This is particularly significant due to the unique nature of judicial elections and the role of a judge in American politics. The results of the statistical and case study analyses should give pause to participants in the normative debates regarding campaign finance and judicial reform as they suggest that regulations can have unintended, but important consequences.

La decentralisation, realisee par l'etat, peut contribuer a renforcer la democratie a condition que la reconnaissance des libertes locales s'accompagne d'une organisation democratique de la gestion locale. Le legislateur de 1982 a mis en oeuvre la decentralisation dans le but democratique de resoudre la crise actuelle de la representation politique. S'etant alors peu occupe de la place du citoyen dans la gestion locale, il tente par la suite de faciliter la participation de celui-ci afin de combler le deficit democratique constate aussi sur le plan local. Mais le legislateur neglige quelque peu de revenir sur le fondement meme de la democratie locale qu'est le systeme representatif. Ce systeme representatif, qui constitue a l'origine une usurpation du pouvoir par une elite independante de ses electeurs, a evolue ensuite democratiquement grace a la force incluse dans le suffrage : le peuple par son vote exprime une opinion que les elus s'engagent a faire triompher sous peine de non reelection-sanction. L'assemblee elue devient un reflet de la population. Toutefois, pour que les elections locales puissent permettre ainsi une participation indirecte du peuple a la gestion de leur collectivite par le biais de "representants quasi veritables", il convient qu'elle soit organisee sur la base de principes particulierement democratiques. Or, il n'est pas sur que ces principes soient mis en oeuvre sur le plan local. Il faut tout d'abord rechercher si la population, participant a la designation des administrateurs locaux, s'identifie a la population locale. L'assemblee locale ne peut etre le reflet de la population que si elle en est l'emanation. Il convient ensuite de verifier si le suffrage emis par la population peut permettre sa representation, c'est-a-dire s'il peut vehiculer, sans la deformer, une opinion electorale objective, si celle-ci ne se dilue pas dans les resultats electoraux et si, enfin, les elus sont representatifs de la population locale
Decentralisation carried out by the government, can contribue to reinforce democracy in condition that the recognition of these local freedoms be accompanied by a democratic organisation of the administration. The legislator of 1982 put decentralisation into effect with the democratic objective of resolving the present political representation crisis. Until this time little attention was given to the critizens participation in administration, attempts were made to rectify the democratic deficit noted on all levels. However the legislator neglected to return to the very foundation of local democracy which is the representative system. This representative system, which starded by a usurpation of power by a small number of elite independant voter, has since become democraticised by the power of voting. The population votes for a candidate expressing their opinion and the candidate must carry out his engagements or run the risk of not being reelected. The elected assembly mirrors the population. However, in order to have a nearly "true representation" at local elections it is necessary they be carried out in a true democratic fashion. This is appears, is not always the case in local elections. First of all it is necessary to find out if the population participating in the designation of local administrators, identity to the local population. The local assembly can only reflect the population if it emanates from it. Secondly, it is important to check if the voters are truely representative of the population, that is to say an objective, cross section and also if the candidates elected are a true representation of the population

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2008.
Title from first page of PDF file (viewed Aug. 1, 2008). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 130-137).

There has been much scholarly attention directed at the Iraq war's role in determining voter choice. I attempt to extend that research into voter turnout to determine what role the Iraq war played in 2006 voter turnout. This paper argues that turnout at the state level could be explained by the number of US deaths each state had sustained from the Iraq occupation at the time of the election. A theory of voter activation based on information availability is put forth to explain the relationship between national events and voter turnout wherein national events like the Iraq war will raise the amount of information voters have at their disposal, which will increase the likelihood of their voting on election day. Regression analysis comparing the turnout rates of the 50 states to their casualties in Iraq revealed no relationship between the two factors, indicating that something else is responsible for the high turnout of the midterm.

Out of twelve mayoral elections between 2000 and 2002, six independents were elected, despite there having been few independent and minor party councillors in these local authorities. Was the. independent success in mayoral elections accidental? Or was there any factor which enhanced independents' chance of being elected as mayor? These questions have not been examined by existing studies. This research advances the concept of the two dimensions of elections to comprehend various types of elections and hypothesises that institutional conditions and the behaviour of actors allow an independent or minor party candidate to have a better chance at a local executive election than at other elections. This research adopts both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The aggregate analysis of electoral results demonstrates that independent and minor party candidates at mayoral elections have constantly received a larger share of votes than their counterparts at Parliamentary and local council elections at the expense of the major parties. The analysis of survey data at London Mayoral elections suggests that each elector's partisanship and evaluation of candidates influenced the split of Mayoral and Assembly votes. Case studies of mayoral elections in Hartlepool, Stoke-on-Trent and Newham affirm that the outcome of mayoral elections is determined by the mixture of candidates' personalities, political issues and the national political tide.

This thesis contributes to the study of the role of information in elections and public policy formation. Its main focus is on information acquisition and voting behaviour. Chapter 1 discusses the motivation of this research and presents a survey of related literature. Chapter 2 focuses on electoral turnout, Chapter 3 on public policy, and Chapter 4 on mass media. Chapter 2 studies the impact of information on electoral turnout. Since incentives to be informed are correlated with other incentives to participate in public life, a model of information acquisition and turnout is introduced to isolate potential instrumental variables and try to establish a causal relation. Results are tested on the 1997 General Election in Britain. It is shown that information, as well as ideology, matters for turnout. It also contributes to explain the systematic correlation of turnout with variables like education and income. Voters' knowledge of candidates and of other political issues is also substantially influenced by mass media. Chapter 3 presents a model that links the distribution of political knowledge with redistributive policies. It argues that voters can have private incentives to be informed about politics and that such incentives are correlated with income. Therefore redistribution will be systematically lower than what the median voter theorem predicts. Moreover, more inequality does not necessarily lead to an increase in redistribution and constitutional restrictions might have unintended consequences. In Chapter 4 it is argued that instrumentally motivated voters should increase their demand for information when elections are close. In supplying news, mass media should take into account information demand, as well as the value of customers to advertisers and the cost of reaching marginal readers. Information supply should therefore be larger in electoral constituencies where the contest is expected to be closer, the population is on average more valuable for advertisers, and the population density is higher. These conclusions are then tested with good results on data from the 1997 General Election in Britain.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2003.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 128-133).
The chapters included here investigate the general relation between fiscal policy and elections. Chapter 1 provides a general summary of the 3 main chapters. Chapter 2 examines local and non-local public expenditures and how the two are linked through the political process. Emphasis is placed on the role of voter composition within localaties in order to look at the effects of suburbanization on expenditures. Chapter 3 examines the validity of the medan voter result when turnout is allowed to depend on policy platforms. With endogeneous turnout there may be multiple equilibria or a motivation to pull policy platforms away from the median and towards the mode of the voter distribution. Chapter 4 examines the link between presidential elections and the economy. Democratic election victories are often followed by a booming economy when compared to Republican victories. The instrument by which the president may influence the economy, however, is difficult to find. This chapter investigates the role of fiscal policy in explaining the impact of elections. It finds only a limited role for fiscal policy in the linkage from elections to the economy.
by John S. Irons, Jr.
Ph.D.

On October 26 1988, for the first time in the country’s history, South Africans of all races will be expected to go to the polls to elect their local government representatives. Never before have these elections been held together on the same day. That is about all that is historically "new" about the coming local authority elections. Yet to the government, the forthcoming municipal elections are all-important. So much so, that it is now an offense to call on people to boycott the elections. This booklet will attempt to find some explanations for why the coming municipal elections are so important to the government. How do they fit into the National Party’s political plans for the country and, most importantly, how do the majority of politically unrepresented South Africans view the elections and the structures of local government?

Les societes paysannes traditionnelles connaissaient la fete comme explosion transitoire : la pause carnavalesque medievale organisait la remise en cause du pouvoir et de l'ordre social. Nos societes modernes ont ramene la fete a un statut de moment de consommation. Ethnologues et sociologues peuvent donc se demander ou est passee la vraie fete. Aujourd'hui, nos democraties font de la campagne electorale la fete totale : elle jouerait le role autrefois devolu a carnaval. Confrontation analogique entre ideal-type de carnaval et elections presidentielles depuis 1974, analyses d'images et d'entretiens avec des journalistes permettront de voir autrement l'election et sa relation avec les medias. Si la figure du monde a l'envers caracterise les deux faits sociaux, elle marque aussi leur difference : car l'election a perdu son "monde a l'endroit". La fete n'est pas le tout de l'election : si le pouvoir joue un jeu, la campagne met aussi en transe ses enjeux
In traditional peasant societies, feast is seen as a traditional explosion : medieval carnival time set up the questioning of power and social order. Our modern societies turned down feast into a status of consumption time. Ethnologists, sociologists may wonder what the real feast has became. Nowadays, our democraties turn election campaigns into total feast : it's supported to have the one function proper to carnival in the past. Analogical comparaison between "ideal-type" carnival and presidential elections since 1974, pictures analysis and interviewes of journalists will enable to see election and its relation with media in a different way. If those two social phenomenous are characterized by the picture of an upside world, this picture also shows their differences : for election has lost its right side world. Feast is not the whole of election : if power plays a game, the countryside also get its states in motion

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Southern Illinois University Carbondale, 2009.
"Department of Political Science." Keywords: American politics, Campaigns, Elections, Electoral behavior, Senate, Voting behavior. Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-123). Also available online.

Several recent studies on information shortcuts and electoral vote choice show that challenges to classic democratic theory are largely exaggerated. Namely, there is now convincing evidence towards Americans having the ability to cast votes that are representative of their own political preferences. Research on such heuristics largely depend on presidential election data however, and it remains uncertain how voters respond to less salient elections where candidate information may not be as apparent and electoral communication efforts are more dismal. This study utilizes a voting correctly measure previously developed to analyze the ability of voters during Senate elections. Special attention in this study is given towards individual characteristics and campaign characteristics. First, individual characteristics, such as social and demographic variables, are expected to have an effect on voting correctly based on previous political behavior studies noting group disparities among political interest, knowledge, engagement, and turnout. Second, campaign characteristics are hypothesized to have an effect on quality voting based on literature explaining how campaigns matter in an informational sense. The findings reported in this study provide lackluster evidence towards the ability of voters to make preferred decisions based on limited information and minimal campaign effects on correct voting.

L'élection de leader est importante pour les services tolérants aux pannes dans les systèmes distribués asynchrones. En coordonnant les actions d'un ensemble de processus, elle permet de résoudre des problèmes d'accord comme le consensus, un problème fondamental en informatique distribuée. Des algorithmes de consensus, tel que Paxos, s'appuient sur un service d'élection de leader ultime, également appelé Omega. Omega renvoie l'identité d'un processus du système et garantit qu'après un certain temps, l'identité du même processus correct est toujours renvoyée. Plusieurs algorithmes d'élection de leader ont été proposés dans la littérature pour implémenter Omega. Parmi ceux considérant les systèmes dynamiques, la plupart ne choisissent pas le leader selon un critère topologique. Or, la position du leader dans le réseau impacte directement les performances des algorithmes utilisant le service d'élection, car le leader doit souvent interagir avec les autres processus pour, par exemple, collecter les informations d'une majorité de processus dans le cas du consensus. Cette thèse étudie le problème d'élection de leader ultime dans les réseaux dynamiques. Deux algorithmes d'élection sont proposés pour les réseaux mobiles ad hoc. Ceux-ci maintiennent et exploitent la connaissance de la topologie du réseau pour élire à terme un unique leader par composante connexe ayant la meilleure centralité de proximité. Des évaluations sur simulateurs avec différents modèles de mobilité montrent que ces algorithmes présentent de meilleures performances que d'autres algorithmes de la littérature, notamment moins de messages, des chemins plus courts vers le leader, et une meilleure stabilité
Leader election is important for many fault-tolerant services in asynchronous distributed systems. By coordinating actions of a set of processes, it allows solving agreement problems like the consensus, a fundamental problem of distributed computing. Several consensus algorithms, such as Paxos, rely on an eventual leader election service, also known as the Omega failure detector. Omega returns the identity of a process in the system, ensuring that eventually the identity of the same correct process is always returned. Many leadership algorithms were proposed in the literature to implement Omega. Among those that consider dynamic systems, most of them do not choose the leader according to a topological criterion. However, the position of the leader in the network directly impacts the performance of algorithms using the leader election service, since the leader must often interact with other processes, for example, to collect information from a majority of processes in consensus algorithms. This thesis studies the eventual leader election problem in dynamic evolving networks and performance related issues. Two eventual leader election algorithms are proposed for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. They maintain and exploit the knowledge of the network topology to eventually elect one leader per connected component with the best closeness centrality. Evaluations were conducted on simulators with different mobility models and performance results show that these algorithms present better performance than other algorithms of the literature, including fewer messages, shortest paths to the leader, and better stability

Thesis advisor: Marc Landy
The election of 2000 was the most tumultuous election of the present day - an election that involved numerous lawsuits and was ultimately decided by the votes of Supreme Court Justices. What many Americans do not know or remember is that there was another election in 1876 with largely similar circumstances - disputed electoral votes (in Florida again) and a winner (Rutherford B. Hayes) produced by a Supreme Court Justice. This essay aims to examine these two elections in detail in order to demonstrate the flaws of the U.S. Constitutional system and the different manners in which they were resolved. The second part of the essay aims to determine whether the purported illegitimacy of the two winners (Hayes and Bush) affected their respective presidencies
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2005
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Political Science
Discipline: College Honors Program

Thesis advisor: Marc Landy
This thesis examines the presidential elections of both 1896 and 1912 from all angles and their lasting impact on modern elections. It looks deeply into the platforms of the Democrat and Republican parties' platform, the influence of third Parties, the importance of the candidate-centered organized campaign, the necessity of fundraising and the use of technology and media. It also attempts to explain the fact that political capital was no longer located in the Northeast and parts of the South, but in the Midwest, Deep South, and parts of the Far West. Primary and secondary sources were used to explore these two elections and then to help compare them to modern day political contest. This thesis attempts to prove that the lessons of 1896 and 1912 can be applied to modern day elections
Thesis (MA) — Boston College, 2010
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Political Science

Political scientists have long noted that congressional elections are often uncompetitive, often extremely so. Many scholars argue that the cause lies in the partisan redistricting of congressional districts, or “gerrymandering”. Other scholars emphasize polarization created by a fragmented news media, or the candidate choices made by a more ideological primary electorate. All these explanations identify the cause of party-safe elections in institutions of various kinds. This dissertation, by contrast, presents a structural explanation of uncompetitive elections. My theory is that population composition and patterns of migration are significant causes and predictors of election results in Florida. I test this theory empirically by comparing the predictions from four hypotheses against aggregate data, using the county as the unit of analysis. The first hypothesis is that Florida can be divided into clearly distinguishable, persistent partisan sections. This hypothesis is confirmed. The second hypothesis is that Florida voters have become increasingly partisan over time. This hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis is that the degree of migration into a county predicts how that county will vote. This hypothesis finds some confirmation. The last hypothesis is that the degree of religiosity of a county predicts how that county will vote. This hypothesis is confirmed. By identifying the structural causes of party-safe elections, this study not only contributes to our understanding of elections in Florida, but also sheds light on the current polarization in American politics.

"The right to participate in the political and economic life of one's state is guaranteed in most African constitutions as well as in regional and international human rights instruments. It is practiced in various froms, one of which is through elections. Zambia and Uganda are among African countries that have embarked on the democratisation process. The leadership of the two countries ascribed to the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), launched in October 2001. NEPAD emphasises a "common vision and a firm and shared conviction" by African leaders for Africa's development. It is the determination of Africans to extricate themselves and the continent from the malaise of underdevelopment and exclusion in a globalising world. ... Since the return to multiparty politics in 1991, Zambia has had periodic elections every five years, the latest being in December 2001. Uganda too, after two decades of instability and military dictatorship, returned to the path of democracy under the leadership of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and had the latest elections in June 2001, although in contrast to Zambia, it was held on the basis of a "no-party" system. Common to the elections in the two countries are alleged electoral malpractices. The electoral processes in place in the two countries have perpetuated the trend. As a result, the electorate have been cheated of their genuine choices. For NEPAD to achieve the vision it postulates, Africa requires committed leadership borne out of free, fair, open and democratic electoral processes. Africa needs electoral practices that guarantee fairness, inclusiveness and accountability of the elected to the electorate. Zambia and Uganda must adopt electoral practices that would foster democracy in the two countries and in line with the NEPAD vision for Africa stipulated in the Declaration on Democracy, Political, Economic and Corporate Governance (DDPECG). ... This thesis consists of five chapters. The first chapter outlines the context of the study. Chapter two is devoted to a study of NEPAD objectives, goals and tasks with particular attention to democracy, good governance, and free and fair and periodic elections. Chapter three looks at the electoral and legal framework of Zambia while chapter four addresses the electoral and legal frame of Uganda. Chapter five is a summary of the study and makes conclusions from the entire study and some recommendations for the adoption of particular electoral practices by the two countries, NEPAD, the civil society and the donor community." -- Introduction.
Thesis (LLM (Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa)) -- University of Pretoria, 2004.
Prepared under the supervision of Professor J. Oloka-Onyango at the Faculty of Law, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
http://www.chr.up.ac.za/academic_pro/llm1/dissertations.html
Centre for Human Rights
LLM