Journal articles on the topic 'Elections – Germany (West)'
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1
von Beyme, Klaus. "A United Germany Preparing for the 1994 Elections." Government and Opposition 29, no. 4 (October 1, 1994): 445–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1994.tb01236.x.
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The Unification of Germany — not as a Confederation as most DDR intellectuals and many West German leftists and Greenish citizens had hoped for but by means of the Anschluss of the GDR — was a daring venture: would the East Germans accept the new national state? The Anschluss by the ‘unconditional surrender’ of the East Germans entailed enormous costs. Destabilization of West German democracy and non-acceptance of democracy by the East Germans was always a latent danger.
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James, Peter. "An Election with No Losers: The 1994 Federal Elections in the New Germany." Politics 16, no. 1 (February 1996): 23–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9256.1996.tb00143.x.
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The German federal election in October 1994, just four years after German Unity, revealed that clear divisions between east and west Germany still exist. Whilst the PDS on the left of the political spectrum was supported by around one fifth of east German voters, the parties on the right gained negligible support in Germany as a whole. The federal German electoral system, based on a personalised sytem of PR, again played a key role; it is, however still too early in the development of the new Germany to speak of a single new party system.
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McAdams, A. James. "Towards a New Germany?—Problems of Unification." Government and Opposition 25, no. 3 (July 1, 1990): 304–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1990.tb00585.x.
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IT HAS NOW BECOME COMMON FOR OBSERVERS TO NOTE that German reunification, an unthinkable prospect only a year ago, will be realised before anyone, either the East and West Germans themselves or any of their neighbours and allies, is fully prepared for this eventuality. As the conservative Alliance for Germany's stunning successes in the GDR's first free Volkskammer (parliamentary) elections on 18 March demonstrated, a near majority of the country's population was eager to cast its vote for those forces which promised to facilitate East Germany's absorption into the FRG on the fastest possible terms. By the same token, the vote was also a victory of sorts for all of the West German parties who rushed to lend material and financial aid to their GDR counterparts, for their involvement in the East German election campaigns clearly helped to accelerate the momentum behind national reunification.
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Schmitt, Hermann, and Andreas M. Wüst. "The Extraordinary Bundestag Election of 2005: The Interplay of Long-term Trends and Short-term Factors." German Politics and Society 24, no. 1 (March 1, 2006): 27–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/104503006780935324.
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When Chancellor Gerhard Schr?der went public and announced his plan for early elections on the evening of 22 May 2005, the SPD and the Green Party had just lost the state election in North-Rhine West-phalia. It was the last German state ruled by a Red-Green government, which left the federal government without any stable support in the Bundesrat. The chancellor's radical move resulted in early elections that neither the left (SPD and Greens) nor the conservative political camp (CDU/CSU and FDP) was able to win. While the citizens considered the CDU/CSU to be more competent to solve the country's most important problems, unemployment and the economy, the SPD once again presented the preferred chancellor. The new govrnment, build on a grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD, might be able to solve some of the structural problems of the country. While this will be beneficial for Germany as a whole, it will at the same time weaken the major German parties, which are running the risk of becoming politically indistinguishable.
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von Beyme, Klaus. "Electoral Unification: The First German Elections in December 1990." Government and Opposition 26, no. 2 (April 1, 1991): 167–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1991.tb01131.x.
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BOTH GERMAN STATES HAVE IN THE PAST BEEN ECONOMIC systems in search of political legitimation. The legitimation of the West German state was gradually established by the acceptance of democratic principles by the huge majority of the population and by a welfare system which was deliberately devised to protect it against contamination from the socialist camp. East Germany lost its legitimation at the moment when it abandoned its economic system. Consequently the battle-cry turned from ‘we are the people’ to ‘we are one people’.
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Reutter, Werner. "A New Start and “Renewal” for Germany? Policies and Politics of the Red-Green Government, 1998-2002." German Politics and Society 21, no. 1 (March 1, 2003): 138–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/104503003782353556.
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According to Jürgen Habermas, the federal election in 1998 finally“sealed” the democratic foundation of Germany and confirmed thatthis country belonged to the “west.”1 Until then, the day of judgmenthad left the “judges” in Germany—that is, the voters—with only limitedinfluence in coalition building and the formation of each government.2 Between 1949 and 1998 no federal government has totallybeen unsettled by elections. Changes in government were due tochanges in coalitions, thus based on decisions by the parties ratherthan on the electorate. Insofar as the landslide victory of the SocialDemocratic Party and the Alliance ‘90/Greens in the 1998 electionnot only reflected important changes in the party system, but it alsocould mean that the German electorate is going to play a more influentialrole in the future.
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Viatkin, Ilia. "Spatial Realignment of German Voters and Germany’s Regional Cleavage." Politikon: The IAPSS Journal of Political Science 45 (June 29, 2020): 31–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.22151/politikon.45.2.
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This article seeks to explain the increase in the German Green party votes in 2019 European elections through the East-West cleavage. Using the 2018 German General Social Survey data, it identifies and compares the Green Party electorate in both regions in terms of conventional and supposed determinants of Green voting. Results of the multivariate analysis equally support both models, indicating left-wing voters as the main source of the Greens’ electoral gains across Germany. However, while in the East the Greens were supported primarily by the electorate of the Social Democratic party dissatisfied with the activity of this party, Western Germans exhibited a trend of left-leaning voters’ backlash against the rise of the radical right party Alternative for Germany through Green voting. This realignment is explicated by the persistent specifics of German regional party politics combined with intrinsic value distinctions of their dwellers, and recent shifts in party-voters ties.
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Klein, Markus. "Wer wählt „Die PARTEI“? Eine empirische Analyse am Beispiel der Europawahl 2019." Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 52, no. 3 (2021): 596–617. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2021-3-596.
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The party “Die PARTEI” was founded in 2004 by editorial staff of the satirical magazine TITANIC and represents a cross-border satirical project: The PARTEI satirizes and caricatures the existing parties and their personnel, while at the same time participating as a real party in real elections . However, it does not show any serious political aspirations . Based on data from official election statistics and on survey data, this article examines the question of who votes for the PARTEI: It shows that PARTEI voters are primarily young men up to the age of 35, who are often still studying and are somewhat more likely to come from East than West Germany . They are interested in politics, dissatisfied with the current state of German democracy, and politically left-wing . Their voting decision in favour of the PARTEI is primarily a vote of no confidence in the political and economic system of the Federal Republic of Germany . PARTEI voters prefer voting for a satirical party instead of casting an invalid vote .
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Geymbukh, Nadezhda G. "On the State Structure of the Federal Republic of Germany at the adoption of the Basic Law of 1949." Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Pravo, no. 44 (2022): 30–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.17223/22253513/44/3.
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The article deals with the issues of state structure of the Federal Republic of Germany discussed in the process of adoption of the Basic Law of 1949. The author examines the constitutional and legal situation within which the Basic Law of the FRG was adopted, analyses in detail the ideas of leading constitutionalists on the issues of state structure that were discussed in the process of drafting the Basic Law of the FRG. Germany's partition was initiated by the West. Recently disclosed archive documents show that Germany's split was predetermined already in the course of the war at the meetings of the "Big Three" - the USSR, the USA and Britain. Then they were joined by France. The accusations that the Soviet Union was responsible for the split of that country are untrue. On the contrary, in the first post-war years, the Soviet government proposed free elections in both parts of Germany, on the condition that the united country would be neutral, that is, would not be part of any military blocs. The West rejected this proposal. The Soviet government has repeatedly stated that Germany must be seen as a single economic and political entity. The position of the Soviet Government is supported by the views of scholars of Soviet state law. The question of German state unity was widely discussed at that time in Soviet periodicals. Soviet scholars L. Bezymensky, B.S. Mankovsky, D. Melnikov, D. Monin, E. Tarle and I. Traynin were in favour of a united German state. On this basis, they concluded that the rejection of the political unity of Germany was directed against the democratic restructuring of the country. A dismemberment of Germany is in the interest neither of the German people, nor of the democratic countries of Europe. Only the re-establishment of a united Germany is in the interest of a lasting peace in Europe, consistent with the historical development of the country and the legitimate aspirations of the German people themselves. There were differences of opinion about the future state structure of Germany. The position of prominent Soviet jurists differed fundamentally from that of Western politicians and jurists. The Western allies were in favour of a federal Germany, while the Soviet scholars were in favour of a unitary form of government. Thus, Germany, divided first into four occupation zones, and then into American and Soviet zones of influence, which not only lost considerable territories, but also completely lost its international standing, ceased to exist as a unified nation state for many years. Two independent states, the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic, were created on German territory. There was a de facto split into two states, which found themselves in different military and political blocs. Since that time, all the aspirations of West and East Germans have been directed towards the unification of Germany and the reunification of the German people. The author declares no conflicts of interests.
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Belov, V. B. "German Foreign Policy in the Face of Current Challenges." Journal of International Analytics 12, no. 3 (October 20, 2021): 38–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-3-38-58.
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The article analyzes the features of German foreign policy on the eve of the September (2021) elections to the Bundestag and the gradual overcoming of the crisis consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. The priorities of the foreign policy based on the value approach remain the European and transatlantic vectors, as well as relations with the main system-forming international organizations. The postulates of value are prompting Berlin to increasingly intensify criticism of Russia and China, incl. due to the signifi cantly increased, from his point of view, threats in relation to Germany and other states of the collective West. Germany still relies on France in European politics. Their tandem continues to determine the political and economic processes in the European Union, as well as to infl uence the formation of the EU mechanisms for overcoming the coronavirus crisis. Despite the rapid restoration of constructive relations with the new American administration, a number of controversial issues remain in bilateral relations, including defense spending and the economy. In recent years, Germany has been able to strengthen its positions in Europe and the world and expects to strengthen its role as a global actor, especially in international organizations. Nevertheless, the German expert community critically refers to its current foreign policy status quo. The author explores the latest trends in German foreign policy, gives an assessment of its development after elections to the Bundestag, pays special attention to the prospects for relations with the Russian Federation.
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Wolfe, James H., Stephen Padgett, and Tony Burkett. "Political Parties and Elections in West Germany: The Search for a New Stability." American Historical Review 93, no. 3 (June 1988): 730. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1868195.
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Al-Dajah, Hasan Abdullah. "Political Culture of the Arab Community in Germany - A Field Study." Journal of Politics and Law 8, no. 4 (November 29, 2015): 191. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jpl.v8n4p191.
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<p>The objective of this research to know the views members of the Arab community hold towards the political culture in its three dimensions. Members of the Arab community in Germany (ACG) were asked as well as about the sources of political information and about their views about the current events in the Arab world (Arab Spring). After reviewing relevant literature and concepts of political culture the researcher developed a questionnaire which was distributed to members of the ACG in several German cities of different sizes, both in West and East Germany.</p><p>The study used package (SPSS) statistical analysis of the study and adoption of percentages and frequencies, averages and standard deviations to examine the study questions and used Independent Samples Test to examine the hypotheses of the study. The results of the study indicate that the political culture of the Arab community in Germany is close and homogeneous and that the similarity of the political and social environment outweighs the differences of the many Arabian countries of origin. The reason for this is attributed to the fact that Germany as the hosting country is governed by the principles of democracy and political and cultural pluralism, , and this in turn reflects positively on the political culture of the members of the Arab community which is integrated rather than fragmented.</p>On a political level the study has shown that communication between the formal and informal German institutions with members of the Arab community needs to be improved and that members of the Arab community in Germany need to be encouraged to get involved and participate more in political life in Germany regarding both, general elections and affiliation to German political parties.
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Caciagli, Mario. "Le sette elezioni federali nella Germania unita (1990-2013)." Quaderni dell Osservatorio elettorale QOE - IJES 72, no. 4 (December 30, 2014): 55–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.36253/qoe-9571.
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Stability and predictability had been the norm in the German political system before the unification. The seven federal elections in the unified Germany from 1990 to 2013 did have significant consequences on the traditional continuity. After the last two governments headed by Helmut Kohl (1990-1998), the Social Democrat Gerhard Schröder became Chancellor in a Red-Green coalition (1998-2005) and the Christian Democrat Angela Merkel became Chancellor, fi rst in a Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats (2005-2009), than in a coalition with the Liberals (2009-2013), and after the 2013 elections in a Grand Coalition again. These frequent changes can be explained by the mobility of the electorate: the cumulative effect of the growth of the middle class and the general social mobility have eroded traditional loyalties, as the disaffection of the youth includes changing electoral choices or tendency to no-vote. Economic and social issues too did have effect on voting behavior: because their critical social situation the electors of the East had preferred fi rst Kohl’s CDU, than Schröder’s SPD and again the CDU under Merkel’s leadership; in the West millions of left electors disappointed by Schröder’s contentious reforms of the labor market leaved the SPD in the 2009 and 2013 elections; the performance of the economy in the last years after periods of crisis, collocating Germany at the top of the European Union, has stimulated the support to Merkel. Because a new party, the PDS than Linke, which has stable roots in the East, but can’t be partner of a government; because the exclusion from the Bundestag of the liberal FDP; and, finally, because the least reform of the electoral system toward more proportionality: all that injects uncertainty into a “fluid” party and political system.
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Belov, V. B. "Party-Political and Socio-Economic Сonsequences of Elections to the German Bundestag." Obshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost, no. 6 (2021): 24. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s086904990017879-8.
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The article examines the results of the last Bundestag elections. They marked the end of the Angela Merkel era and reflected the continuation of difficult party-political and socio-economic processes in the informal leader of the European Union. The main attention of the research focuses on the peculiarities of the election campaign of the leading parties and of the search for ways of further development of Germany in the face of urgent economic and political challenges. These challenges include the impact of the coronavirus crisis, the impact of the energy and digital transition to a climate-neutral economy, and the complex international situation. Based on original sources, the author analyzes the causes of the SPD victory and the CDU/CSU bloc defeat, the results of the negotiations of the Social Democrats with the Greens and Liberals, the content of the coalition agreement from the point of view of the prospects for the development of domestic and foreign policy and the economy of Russia's main partner in the west of the Eurasian continent. The conclusion is made about the absence of breakthrough ideas, the consistent continuation of the course started by the previous government for a carbon-free economy and the strengthening of the role of Germany in Europe and the world. For this course, conflicts and problems in achieving the set goals will be immanent due to the compromising nature of the coalition agreements.
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Schoonmaker, Donald. "The Changing Party Scene in West Germany and the Consequences for Stable Democracy." Review of Politics 50, no. 1 (1988): 49–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0034670500036135.
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In the 1980's the West Germany party system finds itself in a new stage of development which bodes well for the continued long-term development of the second republic. Drawing on research from the comparative historical development of party systems and democratic regimes as well as from analysis of the recent elections, it is suggested that the concentration process in the party system of 1949–1983 has evolved into a more dispersed pattern with predominantly positive consequences for the Bonn democracy. The rise of the Greens, the gradual decline of the SPD, and the center-right coalition of CDU/CSU/FDP are analyzed from the standpoint of their contribution to stable and effective democracy. The nature of the coalition dynamics on both sides of the right-left spectrum are discussed with the conclusion that while West Germany is predominantly a Parteiendemokratie, the new forms of participation, the further development of pluralism, and the increased competition of ideas make it a democracy governed essentially by parliamentary parties yet more responsive to extraparliamentary forces.
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Szymoniczek, Joanna. "Polska opinia publiczna wobec Niemiec i wydarzeń 1968 roku w Niemczech." Rocznik Polsko-Niemiecki, no. 20 (March 30, 2012): 55–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.35757/rpn.2012.20.04.
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The media system formed in Poland after the Second Word War was subordinated to political practice. The ruling communist party treated the radio, press and television as one of the most important tools for exercising power and controlling social processes. All the content being conveyed was scrupulously censored. The same applied to articles concerning the Federal Republic of Germany. Throughout the entire era of the People’s Republic of Poland, the RFG was ‘the villain of the piece’. The press published numerous articles in reminder of the Second World War and successive anniversaries of specific crimes, incessantly recalling their scale, the destruction and the number of victims. The texts frequently referred to the revisionist policy of the post-war RFG. West Germany was thus presented as a militaristic state, striving to obtain nuclear weapons and rockets, exerting pressure on her Western partners to push armament programmes and frustrating disarmament, a state where the left was suppressed and the German Communist Party was persecuted by the police while the Nazis (NDP) grew in strength. In view of Bonn’s obsession with regard to the re-unification of Germany, Poland, went the narrative, could not trust West Germany. Such an image of the RFG in the Polish media was congruent with the objectives of Poland’s foreign policy toward that country.In 1968, the events occurring in the FRG, the youth’s protest on a mass scale, the brutal methods of the police, the passing of emergency laws which restricted citizens’ freedoms, were reported accurately, emotionally and with a propaganda bias. These reports were given an additional emphasis by their tone, which was alarmist, often hysterical and with no shortage of loaded headlines, which usually made reference to the Second World War and the perpetual threat posed to both Poland and the other Eastern Bloc states by the FRG. There were few references in the Polish press to 1968 in Germany. They were recalled, in principle, only when criticising the Western life style and the ‘moral collapse of the West’, reporting terrorism-related events in Germany, in particular, the Red Army Faction in the 1970s and the appointment of Joschka Fischer as foreign minister of the FRG in 1998. On the other hand, mention was frequently made of the events related to the Second World War, associating them with the German expectations of apologies for the expulsions, statements puing a question mark over the Oder and Lusitian Neisse rivers, and so forth. Throughout these years, a relatively considerable amount of column space was devoted to the German political scene, expressing interest in particular elections. In the entire period analysed here, the Polish media were very eager to report German problems and troubles such as the titles. the fall of a government, economic woes, terrorism, the excesses of the young people, the defeat of Germany’s national football team, or the FRG’s ‘only’ winning a silver medal in the Olympics. Pre-1989, this willingness to pesent the FRG unfavourably is highly visible; later it becomes less direct, though it can still be perceived in some of the titles.
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Karns, Margaret P. "Ad hoc multilateral diplomacy: the United States, the Contact Group, and Namibia." International Organization 41, no. 1 (1987): 93–123. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300000758.
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In April 1977 the United States and four other major Western governments embarked on a unique diplomatic exercise in the hope of negotiating an agreement for the independence of the territory of Namibia, or South West Africa. The “Contact Group” as it became known (or Western Five), consisting of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and the Federal Republic of Germany, functioned actively from April 1977 until mid-1982 as an ad hoc multilateral mediating and facilitating team in close proximity to but not directly linked with the United Nations. The five countries secured basic agreement in 1978 on a plan calling for UN supervised elections for a constituent assembly in the territory leading to early independence and the appointment of a UN special representative to ensure the necessary conditions for such elections.
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Gherghina, Sergiu, and Huan-Kai Tseng. "Voting home or abroad? Comparing migrants' electoral participation in countries of origin and of residence." Nationalities Papers 44, no. 3 (May 2016): 456–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00905992.2015.1132690.
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The political participation of immigrants has received increased scholarly attention over recent decades. However, comparisons between the electoral behavior of immigrants in their countries of origin and of residence are still limited. This article addresses this gap in the literature and seeks to identify the determinants of Romanian immigrants' electoral participation in the local elections of four West European countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) as compared to their turnout in their home country's legislative elections. Looking through the lenses of exposure theory, we hypothesize that contact with institutions, people, and values from the countries of residence are likely to have different effects in the two types of elections. We test the explanatory power of four main variables - time spent in the host country, social networks, degree of involvement in the local community, and the type of relationship with citizens of their host countries - to which we add a series of individual-level controls such as age, education, gender, and media exposure. To assess our claim, we employ binary logistic regression to analyze original web survey data collected in the summer of 2013. The result supports the empirical implications of exposure theory.
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YASHLAVSKII, A. E. "Europe’s Anti-immigrant Parties: False Start or Second Wind?" Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law 11, no. 3 (August 17, 2018): 230–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2018-11-3-230-244.
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The article makes focus on the rise of Western Europe’s far-right parties which act with anti-immigrant agenda amid 2010s European migrant crisis. Massive influxes of refugees and migrants have accumulated huge political significance and triggered off a wide range of conflicts (both on international and national levels). The migrant crisis has indicated many social-political challenges for European countries. The crisis has been synchronous with a rise of popularity of right populist political movements (old ones as well as new ones), which promote restrictions of immigration etc. At the same time it cannot be ignored that West European right-wing populist political movements achieved some success in previous decades, well ahead of the current migrant crisis. Immigration issue has been a centerpiece of political discourses of West European right-wing parties (National Front in France, for instance) since late 1970s – early 1980s. But it is quite obvious that the 2010s migrant crisis became a trigger for revitalization of the far-right movements which are outspoken critics of the European Union as “a supra- national body” dictating its conditions to the member countries. Besides, the crisis gave a boost to a rise of new populist movements (for example, “Alternative for Germany”). In 2017 the populist right-wing parties in Europe won the largest support over the three past decades. Recently the right populist forces appeared in elections in a number of European countries (Germany, Austria, France etc.) as tough competitor of traditional mainstream political parties and won parliamentary representation and/or representation in the government coalitions. Furthermore, these movements demonstrate attempts to change their image to shift to political mainstream. However, in the foreseeable future, any cardinal breakthrough and far-right anti- immigrant parties’ coming to the power in Western Europe’s coutrnies is hardly possible.
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Lijphart, Arend. "The Pattern of Electoral Rules in the United States: a Deviant Case among the Industralized Democracies." Government and Opposition 20, no. 1 (January 1, 1985): 18–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1985.tb01065.x.
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THE UNITED STATES IS THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST DEMOcracy (after India) and the largest of the older well-established democracies, with a very long and uninterrupted history of free elections. For this reason, it can be argued that the American democratic example has been and, should be an important model for other countries to follow. This article will focus on one important aspect of the American democratic system - the pattern of electoral rules - and it will emphasize the striking differences between the American electoral process and that of most other democracies. This contrast obviously affects the applicability of the American model to other countries that may be in the process of revising their electoral rules: because the United States is a deviant case in almost all respects, it presents clear alternatives to the more common attern but also dternatives that are so radical that they may ge difficult to transplant. The democracies with which the American pattern of electoral systems will be compared and contrasted are the 20 countries which, Me the United States, have been democratic without interruption for a relatively long time, that is, since approximately the end of the Second world War: the four large West European countries (Great Britain, France, West Germany, and Italy), the five Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Iceland), the Benelux countries (the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg), Ireland, Switzerland, Austria, and five countries outside Europe (Canada, Israel, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand).
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Kopstein, Jeffrey, and Daniel Ziblatt. "Honecker's Revenge: The Enduring Legacy of German Unification in the 2005 Election." German Politics and Society 24, no. 1 (March 1, 2006): 134–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/104503006780935261.
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A core lesson of Germany's federal election of September 2005 is the enduring legacy of the communist past in East Germany, a legacy that substantially shapes politics in unified Germany. Fifteen years after unification, the crucial difference in German politics still lies in the East. The 2005 election demonstrated the enduring east-west divide in German party politics. The result is that Germany today has two coherent party systems, one in the East and one in the West. Combined, however, they produce incoherent outcomes. Any party that hopes to win at the federal level must perform well in the very different circumstances in the East.
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Downes, Alexander B., and Jonathan Monten. "Forced to Be Free?: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization." International Security 37, no. 4 (April 2013): 90–131. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00117.
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Is military intervention effective in spreading democracy? Existing studies disagree. Optimists point to successful cases, such as the transformation of West Germany and Japan into consolidated democracies after World War II. Pessimists view these successes as outliers from a broader pattern of failure typified by cases such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Those in between agree that, in general, democratic military intervention has little liberalizing effect in target states, but contend that democracies can induce democratization when they explicitly pursue this objective and invest substantial effort and resources. Existing studies, however, often employ overly broad definitions of intervention, fail to grapple with possible selection effects in countries where democracies choose to intervene, and stress interveners' actions while neglecting conditions in targets. Astatistical examination of seventy instances of foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC) in the twentieth century shows that implementing prodemocratic institutional reforms, such as sponsoring elections, is not enough to induce democratization; interveners will meet with little success unless conditions in the target state—in the form of high levels of economic development and societal homogeneity, and previous experience with representative governance—are favorable to democracy. Given that prospective regime change operations are likely to target regimes in poor, diverse countries, policymakers should scale back their expectations that democracy will flourish after FIRC.
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Leiter, Debra. "Social Networks, Predispositions and Split-Ticket Voting: The Case of the 1990 German Unification Election." Political Studies 67, no. 1 (March 1, 2018): 171–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0032321718761177.
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When casting a split-ticket ballot, voters in established democracies have strong political predispositions and electoral experience that influence their decision. However, voters in a new democracy, lacking long-term party attachment and experience with democracy, may instead be informed and motivated by their social networks. Using the 1990 Cross-National Election Project German Unification study, I examine which factors predict split-ticket voting for East and West Germans. I find that political disagreement within a social network is more influential for East Germans, while partisan predispositions, particularly party supporter type, play a greater role for West Germans. These findings indicate that, in absence of competition between long-term partisanship and democratic experience, network characteristics may have a profound impact on political decision-making.
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Mitrofanova, A., and O. Mikhailenok. "Right Wing Populist Civic Movements: Western Experience and the Situation in Russia." World Economy and International Relations 65, no. 3 (2021): 120–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-3-120-129.
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The article aims at identifying the characteristics shared by the right-wing populist civil movements of Western Europe and the USA and evaluating the possibility to use them for researching right-wing nationalist organizations in Russia. The movements selected for the comparison range from party-like electoral actors to unorganized protesters. They include as follows: The Five-star Movement (Italy), PEGIDA and the like (Germany), the English Defence League (the UK), the Tea Party Movement (the US). The authors identified several interrelated characteristics shared by these movements: (1) dealing with local, usually social, issues, (2) network-like structure of autonomous local groups building the agenda from below, (3) ideological ambivalence leading to replacing ideology with subculture, (4) digitalization of activism. Although in Russia there are no civic movements structurally or functionally identical to Western right-wing populists, the authors demonstrate that local social issues and civic responsibility have become important topics for some Russian nationalists (right-wing radicals) since the mid 2000s. The trends of deideologization and dealing with non-political local issues are researched mainly on the example of the “Frontier of the North” (Komi Republic). The authors conclude that some of the radical Russian nationalists are gradually declining their own independent agenda, following local protests instead. This opens up the possibility for right-wing organizations to become local civil society institutions and to participate successfully in local elections, similar to the “electoral break-through” of right-wing populists in the West. Although it is too early to speak about the deideologization of Russian nationalism, the article suggests that some nationalists are ready to mitigate ideological tensions to secure expanded social support. At the moment, nationalist organizations in Russia remain frozen between right-wing radicalism and emulating Western right-wing populism.
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Grunberger, Richard. "Nationalist undertones in the West German elections." Patterns of Prejudice 21, no. 2 (June 1987): 35–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0031322x.1987.9969903.
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Keller, Andrei V. "«Мужская дружба»? Вилли Брандт и Леонид Брежнев в контексте энергетического диалога между ФРГ и СССР в 1970–1973 гг." Soviet and Post-Soviet Review 44, no. 2 (March 4, 2017): 99–132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/18763324-04301006.
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With the signing of the Moscow Treaty in 1970 between the Soviet Union and West Germany, a new period in Soviet-German relations began. This phenomenon was made possible by two factors: the strengthening of Brezhnev's power and the election of Willy Brandt as Chancellor of West Germany. This article identified the importance of the personal relationship between the two politicians in the transition from a policy of harsh confrontation during the Cold War to a policy of détente and economic cooperation in the form of an energy dialogue from 1970 to 1973. Against the background of current events, the author poses the question of why the two politicians were unable to agree to a policy against the backdrop of the perceived ideological antagonism between the capitalist and socialist systems. This article also considers how the relationship between the two men affected the development of economic cooperation between the two countries.
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Jankowski, Michael, Sebastian Schneider, and Markus Tepe. "Ideological alternative? Analyzing Alternative für Deutschland candidates’ ideal points via black box scaling." Party Politics 23, no. 6 (January 12, 2016): 704–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354068815625230.
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This study applies black box scaling to the German Longitudinal Election Study candidate survey 2013 to shed light on an emerging right-wing party in Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The scaling procedure extracts two meaningful and robust ideological dimensions described as socialism versus liberalism and libertarian versus authoritarian. Placing the ideal point of candidates from all parties into this two-dimensional space shows that AfD candidates are significantly more market liberal than Christian Democratic Union candidates but not more authoritarian. On these grounds, the AfD can hardly be regarded as a right-wing extremist party. Yet exploring ideological heterogeneity within parties indicates that East German AfD candidates are generally more authoritarian than their West German colleagues, highlighting a potential source of the party’s recent shift from primarily Eurosceptic toward more nationalist conservative positions.
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Müller-Rommel, Ferdinand. "The German Greens in the 1980s: Short-term Cyclical Protest or Indicator of Transformation?" Political Studies 37, no. 1 (March 1989): 114–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.1989.tb00269.x.
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In the West German general election of 1983 the newly formed Green Party received 5.6 per cent of the popular vote and was (at only its second attempt) able to send 27 delegates to the federal Parliament (Bundestag). It was the first time since the 1950s that a new party had joined the three major parties (SPD, CDU-CSU, FDP) in the federal Parliament. In the 1987 federal election the Green Party achieved an even better result: it received 8.3 per cent of the popular vote and 42 seats in the federal Parliament. Because of this remarkable success the analysis of the Green Party in Germany has become a major research object in political science. Several studies have described the development of the Green Party, its social bases, its organizational structure and its ideology.1 However, these findings have not been related to the role as well as the function of the Green Party in the West German party system. This research note represents such an attempt. The debate on ‘realignment’ and ‘dealignment’ of West European party systems is the most useful in this respect.2 Is the Green Party vulnerable and consequently likely to disappear from the political scene or will it become a stable component of the party system? It is hypothesized that the Green Party will consolidate its position as the fourth party in the German party system because it is a ‘new type of party’ that differs significantly from the established parties and hence can mobilize its own voter clientele.
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Irving, R. E. M., and W. E. Paterson. "THE WEST GERMAN GENERAL ELECTION OF 1987." Parliamentary Affairs 40, no. 3 (July 1987): 333–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pa.a052104.
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Gunlicks, Arthur B. "Campaign and Party Finance in the West German “Party State”." Review of Politics 50, no. 1 (1988): 30–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0034670500036123.
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In contrast to the United States, where there is little or no public financing of parties and candidates below the presidential level, the German “party state” grants generous subsidies in a variety of forms to the political parties, though not to individual candidates. The German Basic Law (constitution), various laws passed by the national and Land (state) parliaments, and the Federal Constitutional Court have been important factors in the development of a complex and costly system of public financing for election campaigns, parliamentary parties and party foundations and for free television and radio time and billboard advertising space. In addition, the federal government incurs large tax expenditures through the encouragement of tax deductible contributions to political parties. In spite of the crucial role which public financing has assumed, recent scandals have occurred involving illegal contributions from business interests. A revised party law of 1984 and a Federal Constitutional Court decision in July 1986 have brought about significant changes, but controversy in Germany over public financing and the impact of recent reforms continues.
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Träger, Hendrik. "Ost vs. West, Nord vs. Süd, Stadt vs. Land? Regionale Spezifika des Wahlverhaltens bei der Bundestagswahl 2021." Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 53, no. 2 (2022): 304–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2022-2-304.
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Following five hypotheses derived from the research literature, the results of the 2021 Ger- man federal election are analyzed on several dimensions: The voting behavior of East and West Germans differs in particular with regard to CDU/CSU and the Green Party, both with electoral strongholds in the West, and the AfD (right-wing populist party) as well as Die Linke (socialist party), both with above-average shares of vote in the East . In this respect, “two German electorates” (Dalton / Bürklin) still exist more than three decades after German reunification . Within those regions, however, clear geographic patterns on a larger scale (e .g ., between the north and the south) are not discernible . The situation chang- es at the city and district levels where considerable differences, especially for the Green Party and the AfD, can be found . These can be interpreted as an indication of conflict between urban areas and rural regions .
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Norpoth, Helmut. "Political Parties and Elections in West Germany: The Search for a New Stability. By Stephen Padgett and Tony Burkett (New York: St. Martin's, 1986. xii, 308p. $32.50 cloth; $14.95 paper). - West German Politics in the Mid-Eighties: Crisis and Continuity. Edited by H. G. Peter Wallach and George K. Romoser (New York: Praeger, 1985. viii, 278p. $34.95)." American Political Science Review 82, no. 1 (March 1988): 325–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1958120.
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Belov, Vladislav. "THE NEW GOVERNMENT OF GERMANY AND GERMAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS." Scientific and Analytical Herald of IE RAS 25, no. 1 (February 28, 2022): 67–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/vestnikieran120226778.
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On December 8, 2021, the new coalition government of Germany began its work, an important area of the country’s foreign policy development is relations with Russia, Germany’s leading partner in the post-Soviet space. In many ways, they determine the parameters of cooperation between the European Union and the Russian Federation and its partners. The SPD, Union 90 / Greens, FDP, during difficult negotiations, agreed on common approaches to cooperation with Russia, which eventually united the value, economic, civil and political «Russian» denominators of the three party election programs. At the same time, the provisions enshrined in the coalition agreement are based on the foundation of bilateral relations built by the last two cabinets of ministers under the leadership of A. Merkel, incl. during 2021, the year that marked the end of the era of the former Chancellor. Just a week after the start of the government, bilateral relations were tested for strength in the political and economic spheres. The new year 2022 began in difficult conditions of escalating confrontation between the collective West, including Germany, and official Moscow. Under these conditions, on January 18, the German and Russian foreign ministers held talks, clarifying their mutual positions on the most important issues on the bilateral and international agenda. On February 15, Russian President V.V. Putin and Chancellor O. Scholz continued to discuss the most important topical issues of cooperation. The author sums up the political and economic results of cooperation between the two leading countries of the European continent in 2021, and also analyzes its prospects in 2022, paying special attention to the role of Germany and the Russian Federation in resolving the intra-Ukrainian conflict.
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Tüffers, Bettina. "The 10th Volkskammer of the GDR – Just a keen student or a parliament with its own culture?" Contributions to Contemporary History 55, no. 3 (December 14, 2015): 24–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.51663/pnz.55.3.02.
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The last parliament of the GDR, the 10. Volkskammer, existed only from March to October 1990 and was undoubtedly different from those in other eastern European communist countries. This had to do with its special situation as the parliament of one half of a former united nation. After the victory of the conservatives in the election of March 1990 it was clear that the majority of voters wanted unification with West Germany according to Art. 23 of the German Constitution and as quickly as possible. This meant reunification by accession of the GDR to the Federal Republic. It was the Volkskammer’s main task to organize this process. Given that the 400 newly elected MPs were completely unexperienced following the model of the German Bundestag was probably the only way to be able to tackle the problems they were faced with. But this meant too that there was little room and no time to develop own solutions to their problems. Critics saw the massive support by West German political parties and institutions as a form of colonization. And a lot of MPs too were highly critical of their work. A feeling of lack of influence and powerlessness was widespread. But, as the example of the reintroduction of the five Länder shows, both sides could pull in the same direction too.This article tries to answer the question whether this parliament was only an assiduous student of its West German master or despite the circumstances able to develop its own culture and its own pace.
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Roberts, Geoffrey K. "‘Weiter so, deutschland!’: The 1987 bundestag election in west Germany." West European Politics 10, no. 3 (July 1987): 449–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402388708424643.
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Pulzer, Peter. "The west German federal election of 25 January 1987." Electoral Studies 6, no. 2 (August 1987): 149–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(87)90022-9.
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Szabo, Stephen F. "Germany’s Aussenpolik After the Election." German Politics and Society 36, no. 2 (June 1, 2018): 118–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/gps.2018.360208.
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The German election of 2017 has produced an unstable government which is unlikely to offer the kind of leadership in foreign and security policy that Europe and the larger West need in a turbulent time. Chancellor Angela Merkel will be in a weaker position than before with the loss of key cabinet positions to the Social Democrats and the Bavarian Christian Social Union. Many will be looking past her as the struggle to succeed her will in - crease. The key foreign policy agenda will include Europe and the Franco- German relationship, Russia, Turkey and Transatlantic relations. Merkel 4.0 is likely to be a transitional and unruly government that will bridge the end of the Merkel era and the start of one led by a new generation of leaders.
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Schoenbach, Klaus. "The Role of Mass Media in West German Election Campaigns." Legislative Studies Quarterly 12, no. 3 (August 1987): 373. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/439811.
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Rusciano, Frank Louis. "Rethinking the Gender Gap: The Case of West German Elections, 1949-1987." Comparative Politics 24, no. 3 (April 1992): 335. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/422136.
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Smith, Gordon. "The Changing West German Party System: Consequences of the 1987 Election." Government and Opposition 22, no. 3 (July 1987): 131–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1987.tb00046.x.
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Smith, Gordon. "The Changing West German Party System: Consequences of the 1987 Election." Government and Opposition 22, no. 2 (April 1, 1987): 131–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1987.tb00185.x.
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DRAMATIC CHANGE IS HARDLY A FEATURE OF WEST GERMAN politics. The signals are usually visible well in advance — but gradual change also means that the wider significance of particular developments may be overlooked. A cursory examination of the political scene in the wake of the election held in January 1987 may fail to reveal much that is new since the success of the Christian Democrats in 1983. Thus, despite the sharp fall in the CDU vote, the coalition with the Free Democrats was comfortably confirmed in office. At the same time, the haemorrhage of SPD support—although partially staunched — still continued, with the inability to make a recovery in the intervening years the haunting question for the party. Chiefly at the expense of the SPD, the Greens have now anchored themselves in the party system. Their presence on the federal stage since 1983, and earlier in the Länder, has gingered up political debate and forced issues on to the agenda that otherwise would have been neglected. There are signs of change, but how are they to be interpreted?
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Smith, Gordon. "The Changing West German Party System: Consequences of the 1987 Election." Government and Opposition 22, no. 3 (July 1, 1987): 131–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0017257x00019825.
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Dramatic Change is Hardly a Feature of West German politics. The signals are usually visible well in advance — but gradual change also means that the wider significance of particular developments may be overlooked. A cursory examination of the political scene in the wake of the election held in January 1987 may fail to reveal much that is new since the success of the Christian Democrats in 1983. Thus, despite the sharp fall in the CDU vote, the coalition with the Free Democrats was comfortably confirmed in office. At the same time, the haemorrhage of SPD support — although partially staunched — still continued, with the inability to .make a recovery in the intervening years the haunting question for the party.’ Chiefly at the expense of the SPD, the Greens have now anchored themselves in the party system. Their presence on the federal stage since 1983, and earlier in the Länder, has gingered up political debate and forced issues on to the agenda that otherwise would have been neglected. There are signs of change, but how are they to be interpreted?
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Klingemann, Hans-Dieter, and Martin P. Wattenberg. "Decaying Versus Developing Party Systems: A Comparison of Party Images in the United States and West Germany." British Journal of Political Science 22, no. 2 (April 1992): 131–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400006311.
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This article examines citizens' attitudes towards the two major parties in the United States since 1952 and in West Germany since 1969 employing open-ended data from each country's National Election Study time series. Despite similar declining trends in party identification in the two countries, it is found that the patterns of change in party images are markedly different. In the United States it is shown that voters have become increasingly neutral towards the two parties as the focus has turned more and more towards the candidates. In contrast, in West Germany voters have come to have a more balanced view of the parties, seeing both positive and negative features of both. Thus in both cases there has been a decline in polarized strong partisanship (‘my party right or wrong’), but for different reasons. In the United States this decline can be seen as a sign of the decay of an ageing and outdated party system; in West Germany it can be seen as the development of realistic and balanced views of a party system which is just reaching full maturity. The implications for analysing party system development in Eastern Europe are discussed.
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Pyschny, Anastasia, and Melanie Kintz. "Die Berufsstruktur des Deutschen Bundestages in der 20 . Wahlperiode." Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 53, no. 2 (2022): 328–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2022-2-328.
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After the 2021 Bundestag election, the composition of parliament changed considerably . With 736 mandate holders, the Bundestag has more members than ever before, and more than 38 percent of them are newcomers . The article uses Adalbert Hess’ categorization scheme to examine how the personnel changes affect German MPs’ occupational structure . Compared to the previous electoral term, it is noticeable that, significantly more MPs are from occupational areas close to politics, especially staff members of parliamentary groups and parties . MPs who previously worked in those jobs are often younger and their share is higher among East German MPs . Although convergence tendencies between East and West German MPs are still rare, they do exist: While East German MPs are still less likely to be freelancers and more likely to be self-employed than their West German colleagues, the dif- ferences between the groups have narrowed noticeably compared to the previous electoral term .
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Roberts, Geoffrey K., Brendan O'Leary, David Miller, Peter Jones, Christian Soe, Fred Halliday, and Christopher Clapham. "Book Reviews: The Blackwell Encyclopaedia of Political Institutions, Models of Democracy, New Forms of Democracy, The Blackwell Encyclopaedia of Political Thought, Human Rights and Human Diversity, Human Rights and International Relations, Political Parties and Elections in West Germany: The Search for a New Stability, East—West Tensions in the Third World, in Search of Security: The Third World in International Relations." Political Studies 36, no. 2 (June 1988): 345–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.1988.tb00236.x.
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Conradt, David P., and Russell J. Dalton. "The West German Electorate and the Party System: Continuity and Change in the 1980s." Review of Politics 50, no. 1 (1988): 3–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0034670500036111.
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Changes in voting behavior and the party system in the three federal elections since 1980 indicate that West German politics have entered a new transitional phase. The periods of CDU hegemony, 1949–1969, and two party competition, 1972–1980, have passed. Both major parties have lost support, turnout has declined, ticket-splitting has increased and New Politics issues such as the environment, disarmament and civil liberties have become salient to increasing numbers of voters. The influence of social class, religion and regional ties on voting behavior has declined. Electoral behavior has become more volatile and uncertain. Four major sources of these changes are identified: the postwar transformation of German social structure; the changing value priorities of mass publics; the introduction of new issues; and the electoral strategies of the parties as determined by their elites and leaders. The study concludes with a discussion of the future of the party system and the prospects for a major dealignment or realignment in West German politics.
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Fairbairn, Brett. "The Limits of Nationalist Politics: Electoral Culture and Mobilization in Germany, 1890-1903." Victoria 1990 1, no. 1 (February 9, 2006): 145–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/031014ar.
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Abstract With Germany's unification, nationalism became an entrenched part of the political culture, until its role was challenged by the rise of social “fairness” issues in the 1890s. In the first decades of the Reich, campaigns against minorities like Catholics, Poles, and Social Democrats helped cement the progovernmental forces, especially in intense “national” elections. The Kartell elections of 1887, in particular, created a patriotic coalition that remained a significant factor in electoral politics for over twenty years. But in the 1890s, nationalist coalition-building became increasingly difficult as the Kartell parties lost support, drifted apart, and competed more and more with one another. The government made efforts to shore up its allies, but these efforts failed to halt the disintegration. Significantly, while some argued the government should use the naval issue or the tariff issue (Sammlungspolitik) to influence the elections of 1898 and 1903, the government was unable to do so. Instead, increasing electoral support went to the parties that were perceived as '“mass” parties, especially the Catholic Centre and Social Democrats. These parties organized social-interest constituencies by appealing to “fairness” issues like suffrage, civil liberties, and fair taxation.
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Milder, Stephen, and Konrad H. Jarausch. "Renewing Democracy: The Rise of Green Politics in West Germany." German Politics and Society 33, no. 4 (December 1, 2015): 3–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/gps.2015.330402.
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The September 2013 Bundestag election, which reelected Angela Merkelas chancellor, was a clear defeat for the Green Party. Alliance 90/TheGreens (henceforth the Greens) fared far better than the Free DemocraticParty (FDP), which failed even to score the five percent of the vote requiredfor representation in parliament, but still fell from 10.7 percent to 8.4 percent,losing five of their sixty-eight seats in parliament. Since in March ofthat same year, surveys had shown their support at 17 percent, this disappointingresult forced Jürgen Trittin, the leader of the parliamentary delegationto step down.1 In many ways, this perceived electoral debacle markedthe end of an era. The former Federal Minister of the Envi ron ment, whohad originally joined the party in 1980, told reporters that “a new generation” would have to step forward and lead the party into the 2017campaign. This statement suggested not only that the Greens’ rebelliousfounding impulse was spent, but also that they had become part of theestablishment in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), now requiring areinvigoration of their own. Since the Greens were once expected to be littlemore than a short-lived byproduct of the social conflicts of the 1970s, acloser look at the party’s founding moment at the beginning of the 1980smight shed new light on its current predicament.
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BADAEVA, A. S. "Freedom Party of Austria: between Rightwing Populism, Austrian Patriotism and German Nationalism." Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law 11, no. 3 (August 17, 2018): 53–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2018-11-3-53-66.
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Sixty years old Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) history is very representative for study West European far-right parties and movements. In last decade West Europe are going through the unprecedented rise of right-wing populism in conditions of citizens’ dissatisfaction with traditional parties’ politics and its institutions. Trying to retain their power the governance parties are involving in the common political trend: use narrative of right-wing populism, are ready to previously unthinkable party alliances erasing usual ideological boundaries. FPÖ exclusive characteristic consists in its special interpretation of Austrian identity combining German nationalism and Austrian patriotism. This position loyalty allows FPÖ to have its own stable electoral foundation and to hope for its support in crisis situations. FPÖ went through several intra-party conflict and experienced periods of serious falls and successful upgrades. At present the party is on its political rise supported by almost one third of Austrian electorate. FPÖ chairman Heinz- Christian Strache became the Vice-Chancellor of Austria after Austrian legislative election in 2017. FPÖ had 6 of 13 seats in the government led by Sebastian Kurz. Set of specific to the Austrian society circumstances, such as denazification minimize and imitation of Austrian identity formation in the postwar period, politicization of the immigration issue escalated in 2015 by European migrant crisis, is making FPÖ a dangerous player on the Austrian political scene and an encouraging example for the far-rights parties of neighbor countries.
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Patton, David F. "Small Parties and the 2013 Bundestag Election: End of the Upward Trend?" German Politics and Society 32, no. 3 (September 1, 2014): 26–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/gps.2014.320303.
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In the 2009 German federal election, the small parties together captured 43.2 percent of the vote; three small parties boasted a result in the double digits. Four years later, none of the small parties finished above 8.6 percent and only two reentered the Bundestag. Notably, the FDP, one of the original West German parties, dropped out of the federal parliament for the first time. Yet, any talk of catch-all party revival and party system concentration needs qualification. As a group, the small parties received nearly a third of all votes cast—the second highest share in six decades. Those that did not make it into the Bundestag won 15.7 percent, a higher share than in any other federal election. This article examines the positioning of the leading small parties in the 2013 Bundestag election campaign and their respective electoral results; highlights party systemic as well as internal party factors to explain small party performance; reassesses the commonplace classification of small parties by whether there is an established legislative presence or not; and considers the positioning and performance of small parties in the years to come.