Academic literature on the topic 'Effect on monetary policy'

Agricultural growth is closely associated with sustainable economic development. This is especially true from the perspective of developing countries, such as India and Pakistan, where significant portions of the labour force are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. This study analysed the impact of macroeconomic policy (i.e. monetary policy) on employment, food inflation, and agricultural growth by analysing to what extent monetary policy is effective in controlling food price inflation, the effect of contractionary monetary policy on the agricultural sector’s employment and productivity, and the extent of monetary policy transmission to money market rates and 10-year interest rates. We did so by applying a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005) to agricultural data from 1995 and 1996 to 2016 for India and Pakistan, respectively. We found that tight monetary policy significantly reduced food inflation and agricultural production while increasing the rural unemployment rate. Short-term and 10-year interest rates increased owing to the contractionary monetary policies pursued by both countries. An inclusive monetary policy whereby policymakers work alongside governments to achieve price stabilisation and reasonable employment rates is recommended.

The article provides a literature review of studies of the impact of monetary policy on income and wealth inequality. Based on the analysis and systematization of the articles mainly written over the past 25–30 years as well as articles written by central bank authorities, the main approaches to assessing the extent to which the Fed's actions are responsible for the growth of wealth inequality in the United States, which began in the 1970s, are identified. It was revealed that the relative unanimity of economists on this issue was replaced by significant pluralism of opinions after the crisis of 2007–2009. Among other reasons this was caused by the activity of central banks and their use of non-conventional approaches in conducting the monetary policy. In addition, the channels through which the actions of central banks affect the distribution of wealth in the economy are identified. In total, five such channels were singled out. Thus, changes in the monetary policy affect the debt market and the structure of assets and liabilities of households, while households with fixed incomes and with a high propensity to use cash are more likely to suffer losses during the expansionary monetary policy. And the fifth channel, which is less popular among the economists, the "Cantillon effect", leads to an increase in the wealth of the first recipients of the issued money at the expense of those who are farthest from the center of emission. The article provides empirical evidence of why this effect is significant for the American economy, and theoretical arguments indicating that taking the Cantillon effect into account can add certainty to studies of both monetary policy costs and institutional changes caused by rising inequality.

Abstract: This study analyzes the spillover effects of the US monetary policy on the ASEAN stock market with Markov switching model and investigates differences in empirical results of each country from ASEAN member. The results of this study have important implications for asset price allocation, specifically in the case of a transition between US and other small countries. The results showed that the ASEAN stock market is more affected by the US interest rates during bull-market than bear-markets. This can be seen from the increasing of stock market volatility during expansion comparing with recession period. Therefore, the stock markets of ASEAN countries will not be easily affected by the dollar rate during financial crisis or the recession period. Keywords: stock market, monetary policy, spillover effect, Markov-switching modelEfek Spillover pada Perubahan Kebijakan Moneter Amerika Terhadap Stock Market di ASEANAbstrak: Penelitian ini menganalisis efek spillover akibat adanya perubahan kebijakan moneter Amerika terhadap stock market di ASEAN dengan model Markov switching dan menginvestigasi terkait ada atau tidaknya perbedaan pada hasil empiris di setiap negara anggota ASEAN. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan implikasi penting bagi mekanisme transisi harga aset, khususnya dari Amerika terhadap negara dengan skala perekonomian kecil. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa stock market ASEAN lebih mudah terpengaruh oleh tingkat suku bunga Amerika pada saat kondisi bull-market dibandingkan saat bear-market. Hal ini dapat dilihat dari tingginya volatilitas stock market pada saat ekspansi dibandingkan saat periode resesi, sehingga stock market negara-negara ASEAN tidak akan mudah terpengaruh oleh dollar pada saat perekonomian mengalami krisis atau saat periode resesi. Kata kunci: stock market, kebijakan moneter, spillover effect, model Markov-switching

This paper proposes a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy incorporating the demand of oil to study the effects of oil price shocks on the business cycle. The model answers several questions, including how monetary policy should respond to the disturbances from such shocks, and whether monetary authorities should use core inflation or headline inflation including oil price inflation as the monetary policy rule. The contributions could be summarized as follows: First, the model reveals that the oil transmission mechanism is determined by the nominal inertia, income effect, and the portfolio allocation effect. Second, both noncore inflation monetary policy and core inflation monetary policy that are simultaneously pegged to oil prices fluctuations are inferior to the monetary policy purely pegged to core inflation. Our findings suggest that the monetary policy should focus on core inflation instead of headline inflation.

The authors use a panel data regression model to examine the effects of main monetary policy instruments on commercial bank risks in China from 1998 to 2011. The interest rate has a positive effect on bank risk while the interest rate margin, the reserve requirement ratio and open market operation have a negative effect. Among the three monetary policy instruments, the reserve requirement ratio has the greatest effect on bank risk, the interest rate (the interest rate margin) the second largest and the open market operation the weakest. Their findings provide guidance to the monetary authority and regulatory authorities in monetary policy and banking regulation in China.

Considering three monetary policy rules, together with two endogenous macroprudential policies that are credit constraints (loan to value, LTV) for households and counter-cyclical capital (capital requirement ratio, CRR) for bankers, this paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Based on the welfare analysis of different combinations of macroprudential rules and monetary policy rules, this paper identifies the optimal policy combinations and analyzes the coordination effects between macroprudential policies and monetary policies. The results show that no matter what kind of monetary policy rules is implemented, the introduction of macroprudential rules has improved the level of total social welfare. In the optimal “two pillars” framework of monetary policies and macroprudential rules, the main objective of monetary policy is to stabilize price inflation, and the macroprudential policy to be implemented is the CRR macroprudential policy. This combination can effectively promote the stability of the real estate market, financial market, and macroeconomy, while maximizing the improvement of total social welfare.

Abstract In this paper, we examine the ability of Fisher effect to describe the subjective behaviour of monetary policy responses for nations constrained by global factors. We developed and estimated a simple DSGE model for appraising the consequence of an integrated financial market predictor on national monetary policy response in Africa’s largest economies – Nigeria and South Africa. The paper integrated the theoretical intuition of the famous Fisher effect on the New Keynesian DSGE model with global predictors to describe national monetary policy response as it influence domestic financial variables and macroeconomic fundamentals. Simulations show that the existence of global factors threatens the abilities of national monetary policy to predict financial variables and macroeconomic fundamentals in their economies.

The main objective of this thesis is to offer empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that differences in firms' balance sheet structures may generate heterogeneous responses to monetary policy innovations. To this end in the second, introductory, chapter we start providing some evidence in favor of a large degree of heterogeneity in the asset and liability side of the balance sheet structure of manufacturing firms belonging to different European countries and different size classes. This static comparison is complemented with a quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of asset and liability items to business cycle conditions.
In the third chapter we focus on a specific dimension along which the presence of heterogeneities in the balance sheet structure may induce different responses to a monetary policy action. In particular we address the existence of a channel of transmission of monetary policy, the cost-channel, that operates through the effect of interest expenses on the marginal cost of production. Such a channel is based on an active role of net working capital (inventories, plus trade receivables, less trade payables) in the production process and on the fact that variations in interest rate and credit conditions alter firms' short-run ability to produce final output by investing in net working capital. It has been argued that this mechanism may explain the dimension of the real effects of monetary policy, give a rationale for the positive short-run response of prices to rate increases (the "price puzzle") and call for a more gradual monetary policy response to shocks. The analysis is based on a unique panel, that includes about 2,000 Italian manufacturing firms and 14 years of data on individual prices and interest rates paid on several types of debt. We find robust evidence in favor of the presence of a cost-channel of monetary policy transmission, proportional to the amount of working capital held by each firm and with a size large enough to have non-trivial monetary policy implications.
The empirical analysis of chapter three is based on the hypothesis that the type of heterogeneity that produces different firm level responses to an interest rate variation is well defined and measurable. On the contrary, most of the empirical literature that tests for the existence of heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on firms' production or investment choices is based on an ad hoc assumption of the specific firm level characteristic that should distinguish more sensitive from less sensitive firms. A similar degree of arbitrariness is adopted in selecting the number of classes of firms characterized by different responses to monetary policy shocks as well as in the selection of the cutoff points. The objective of chapter four is to apply a recent econometric methodology that building on data predictive density provides a well defined criteria to detect both the "optimal" dimension along which analyze firms' responses to monetary policy innovations and the "optimal" endogenous groups. The empirical analysis is focused on Italian manufacturing firms and, in particular, on the response of inventory investment to monetary policy shocks from 1983 to 1998. The main results are the following. In strike contrast with what is normally assumed in the literature in most of the cases it turns out that the optimal number of classes that is larger than two. Moreover orderings that are based on variables that are normally thought to be equivalent proxies for the size of the firm (i.e. turnover, total assets and level of employment) do not lead neither to the same number of groups nor to similar splitting points. Finally even if endogenous clusters are mainly characterized by different degrees of within group heterogeneity, with groups composed by smaller firms showing the largest dispersion, there also exist important differences in the average effect of monetary policy across groups. In particular the fact that some of the orderings do not show the expected monotonicity between the rank and the average effect appears to be one of the most remarkable aspects.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2007.
Title from electronic title page (viewed Mar. 27, 2008). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Economics." Discipline: Economics; Department/School: Economics.

The purpose of the monetary policy is to attain and sustain price stability in order to achieve balanced and sustainable economic development and growth. The stock market contributes to the growth of vital sectors of the economy and thus ultimately has an impact on the economy of a country. Prior to making investment decisions, investors consider the required rate of return, making stock prices largely sensitive to macroeconomic announcements. The purpose of the study is to define the extent to which the monetary policy rate announcements influence the behaviour of stock prices for firms that are listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). A general conclusion from studies done in developed countries is that there is an inverse relationship between monetary policy and stock returns. The existing literature for developing economies, mainly Africa, focuses more on the relationship between long-term interest rates and stock prices and less on the policy rate effects on stock prices which have a number of limitations. According to literature, these limitations can be overcome by utilising the event study methodology. The event study methodology is known for using a short event period around the announcement of the policy rate in order to avoid limitations. In order to examine the impact of the policy rate announcement on the JSE, the study adopted the event study methodology to analyse data from October 2006 to September 2018. The data was collected from South African Reserve Bank publications and JSE daily trading reports. The results showed that abnormal returns were present for stock prices when there was a policy rate announcement. However, it was found that monetary policy rate announcements had no significant effect on companies listed on the JSE. The study concluded that there is no inverse relationship between the monetary policy announcement and the stock prices in South Africa. Monetary policy rate changes have an immediate effect on commercial banks and because of this, it assumed that the monetary policy rate announcement will have a greater impact on commercial bank stock prices than it would have on non-bank stock prices. The results from this study did not confirm this assumption as the bank stocks were not impacted more by the monetary policy rate announcement than the non-bank stocks were. This paper further confirms the finding of studies done in developing countries where it is found that policy rate actions do not significantly influence the stock markets in developing countries and more importantly those within Sub-Saharan Africa.

In many countries including Zambia, stock markets are perceived to be crucial for economic development because of the financial intermediary role that they have assumed in the financial system. Stock markets are sensitive to the arrival of new information, especially those that are macroeconomic like monetary policy announcements. This study sought to determine the extent to which the Lusaka Stock Exchange reacts to monetary policy actions by examining the response of all companies listed on the stock exchange to policy rate announcements, with the exception of ZCCM holdings. The study also aimed to look at the differential response of bank stock returns to policy rate announcements. In order to examine the impact of the policy rate announcement on the Lusaka Stock Exchange, the event study methodology was adopted to analyse data from January 2011 to June 2016. The data was collected from the LuSE daily trading reports and monetary policy publications from the Bank of Zambia. It was found that the policy rate announcement has an insignificant negative impact on stock prices in the event of a policy rate increase and an insignificant positive impact on stock prices when the policy rate is maintained. Similar findings were observed for bank stock prices and non-bank stock prices. The impact of the policy rate on stock prices has important implications for the monetary policy transmission mechanism, risk and investment management strategies of financial market participants, as well as government policy and actions towards financial markets. This study makes a unique contribution to existing literature because it is the only study in Zambia to have measured the impact of monetary policy on stock prices using the event study approach.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
This paper assesses the possible contribution of monetary expansions for the existence of expansionary fiscal consolidations, using annual panel data for 14 European Union countries over the period 1970-2019. The paper adopts a two-fold approach: it combines the usual CAPB approach used to identify fiscal consolidations with the narrative approach, and extends this approach to include dummy variables for identifying monetary expansions. A fiscal consolidation couple with a monetary expansion does produce little evidence of non-Keynesian effects, thus, monetary expansions does not contribute for the existence of expansionary fiscal consolidations. Moreover, Panel Probit estimations suggest monetary developments even contribute negatively for success of fiscal consolidations. For other success variables, duration and size contribute in a positive way and expenditure based consolidations lead to a decrease in debt to GDP ratio.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This paper investigates a simultaneous impact of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in a single model. The data for 21 OECD countries covering the period 1970-2009 is gathered for our study of policy effect on economic growth. A quadratic specification method is employed by constructing a relationship between economic growth and several policy variables in order to find optimal values for government debt level, tax revenues and interest rate that lead to the highest economic growth, which is a contribution of this paper. Furthermore, a threshold method is exploited to determine the highest growth rate at different tax and interest rates given a particular debt level. Another distinctive feature of this research is uttered in simultaneous application of both a quadratic specification method and a threshold method in the same paper which has never been done before. Having analysed methodological problems of previous studies, we employ a state-of-art advanced estimation technique which ensures a robustness of stated conclusions. According to the results, the highest economic growth performance is achieved when total tax revenue reach 23.75% of GDP and when a government debt level does not exceed 41% of GDP.

AbstractThis chapter introduces the reader to unconventional monetary policy, i.e. monetary policy using instruments going beyond the steering of short-term interest rates as described in the previous chapter. We start by providing the rationale of unconventional monetary policy, i.e. essentially pursuing an effective monetary policy when conventional policies are not able to provide the necessary monetary accommodation because of the zero lower bound. We then discuss negative interest rate policies, and explain why rates slightly below zero have proven to be feasible despite the existence of banknotes. We also discuss possible unintended side-effects of negative interest rates. We continue with a discussion of non-conventional credit operations: lengthening of their duration, the use of fixed-rate full allotment, the widening of the access of counterparties to the central bank’s credit operation, targeted operations, credit in foreign currency, and widening the collateral set. Finally, we turn to the purposes and effects of securities purchase programmes. We end the chapter by revisiting the classification of central bank instruments in three categories: conventional, unconventional, and lender of last resort.

In this paper, we investigate the effects of monetary policy concerning the inflation rates specific for each income group of households. We find that the prices specific for high-income households are generally more rigid and less volatile compared to the prices specific for middle and lower-income households. This means that monetary policy can differently affect the different inflation rates specific for each of the income groups. By using a FactorAugmented VAR (FAVAR) model, we show that a monetary policy shock affects high-income households less compared to middle and lower-income households, although the differences between the separate income groups are generally small. Then, by using a small scale gap model, we find that the prices of low-income households are the most sensitive to a monetary policy shock, while the prices of the top-income households are the least sensitive to the shock, which is in line with our empirical findings.

In this paper, we investigate the recent monetary policies and development of Turkish banking system during the post 2001 financial and banking crisis. We explore the effects of capital inflows and outflows to real exchange rates and the real stock market prices, before and after the financial crisis. We investigate the relationship between real exchange rate, real stock prices and capital flows. We decompose the foreign flows into real assets and liabilities, in order to investigate the possible long-term effect of inflows and outflows. Reversal of capital flow seems to create a possibility of exchange rate crisis. The Turkish Central Bank by taking lessons from this experience they formulate their recent policies accordingly. Recent Monetary Policy mix in Turkey aims to have financial stability by increasing the reserve ratio in each component of capital flows in Turkey. The ratio increases shorter the period of the asset. The Central Bank work claims to have an effect similar to inflation targeting.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.