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Choi, Ga Eun, and Stephanie Galonja. "The Euro Effect on Trade : The Trade Effect of the Euro on non-EMU and EMU Members." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Economics, Finance and Statistics, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-20114.
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the changes in trade values are affected by the implementation of the euro currency. We study the EU members, including 11 EMU members and 3 non-EMU members (Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom). The empirical analysis is conducted by using a modified version of the standard gravity model. Our core findings can be summarized into two parts. First, the euro effect on trade which is estimated by the euro-dummy coefficient reflects an adverse influence by the euro creation on trade values for the first two years of the implementation on all our sample countries. It leads us to a conclusion that there is no significant improvement of trade in the year of implementation. These results do not change when a time trend variable is added to evaluate the robustness of the model. Our primary interpretation is that the euro creation does not have an immediate impact on trade but it is rather gradual as countries need time to adapt to a new currency. It is connected to our second finding that the negative influence of the euro implementation is not permanent but eventually initiates positive outcomes on trade values over time, thus concluding that the euro implementation has had gradual impact on both EMU and non-EMU members.
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Gkoutsampasoulis, Nikolaos. "Euroland - The effect of Euro on international trade : Are there winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''?" Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Nationalekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-13856.
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This paper examines whether European Monetary Union (EMU) countries share fairly the effect of their membership in Eurozone (EZ) or whether are winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''. By using panel data of 27 European Union (EU) Member States for the period 2001-2012 in the context of a gravity model, we focus on estimating the Euro’s effect on bilateral trade and we detect whether this effect differs across the Member States of EZ. Two estimation methods are applied: Pooled OLS estimator and Fixed Effects estimator. The empirical results come to the conclusion that the individual country effects differ and are statistically significant, indicating that EMU’s effect on trade differs across the Member States of EZ. The overall effect of the Euro is statistically insignificant, regardless the estimation method, demonstrating that the common European currency may have no effect on bilateral trade.
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Jienwatcharamongkhol, Viroj. "The Effect of Euro on Intra-Eurozone FDI Flows." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12440.
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Since the end of World War II, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been leading the international financial capital flows and has tripled in 2000s over the decade earlier. With its positive effect on economic growth of host countries via spill-overs, it became a race among countries to attract multinational enterprises (MNEs) to invest in their countries. The introduction of European common currency theoretically helps reduce the transaction costs across borders with the reduction of exchange-rate uncertainties and associated costs of hedging, facilitation of international cost comparison. Moreover, mergers and acquisitions activities (M&As) account for 60-80% of FDI flows, and most MNEs engage in both export and setting up affiliates abroad, suggesting complementarity between trade and FDI. Thus reducing cross-border distance costs would encourage MNEs to increase its M&A activities abroad, resulting in more inward FDI flows in the eurozone, especially among member states. The gravity equation is used in this paper to estimate the euro effect from the dataset of inward FDI flows of 24 countries during 1993-2007 and the result confirms that common currency stimulates more intra-eurozone inward FDI flows by approximately 58%.
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Laurincová, Silvia. "Ekonomické aspekty prijatia spoločnej meny euro (Slovnesko a krajiny V4)." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-18124.
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The aim of this thesis is to analyse the effects of euro adoption on the economy. The main focus is to describe situation in Slovakia as a new member state of eurozone and to examine stages of preparation for euro adoption of other former V4 members -- Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The economy of all countries is strongly influenced by world financial crisis, effects of which are definitely being considered and reflected in this depiction.
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Sule, Kevin. "Is the euro the right way? : A study on the effect of implementing the euro on domestic unemployment." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-448879.
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This paper aims to investigate how the domestic unemployment rate of a nation is affected by joining the European currency union and converting to the euro. This is done through the use of a synthetic control method, as well as an augmented version of the model, where I define the Euro Area countries as the treatment group, and conversion to euro as treatment. In line with the predictions of previous related theoretical frameworks such as the optimum currency area theory, the gravity theory and Matusz’s equilibrium model, the findings in this paper suggests that conversion to the euro leads to a short-term decrease in domestic unemployment. The effect is likely due to the short-term increase in trade, specifically within-union trade, that arises from joining the EMU.
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Bergström, Koustas Oskar, and Lucas Burns. "The Euro's Effect on Foreign Direct Investment : An econometric study of the euro’s effect on inward foreign direct investment." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-157993.
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The aim of this thesis is to analyse if the euro has had any significant effect on the inflow of foreign direct investments. Our purpose is answered by developing an econometric model with inflow of foreign direct investments as the dependent variable. The model is estimated with the ordinary least squares method and panel data from ten different countries, five which have adopted the euro as their currency and five which have not. The data collected concerns the timeframe from 1994 to 2007. The theoretical background is retrieved mainly from journal articles that have conducted similar research of how a common currency has affected foreign direct investments. We use these studies as a base for developing our regression model and also as a foundation for our analysis. The results from this thesis show that the euro has had a large significant effect on foreign direct investments which we see by analysing the interaction variable in our regression. Furthermore, the results show that trade openness and GDP have the largest significant effect on FDI, meanwhile unit labour cost and exchange rate volatility had no significant effect at all. We conclude that the euro has a positive significant effect on inward foreign direct investment. Although the model suggests that having adopted the euro in 1999 would yield a 58.4 per cent increase in inward FDI compared to countries that kept their own currency, we are uncertain of the effect’s actual magnitude due to concern that we read some effects from the single market in the variable we use to estimate the euro’s effect.
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Marin, Joseph. "Determining Impacts of Partnership and the Euro within the European Union:: With a Focus on Accession Countries." Thesis, Boston College, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104212.
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Thesis advisor: Robert MurphyThe primary goal of the European Union is to promote a high degree of competition between regions in an effort to allow for the creation of the single market. In the year 2004, the EU had allowed ten new member states to enter into the European Union. This paper looks at the potential positive or negative impact from entering into partnership with the EU. It looks at convergence between EU member states and a potential treatment effect in order to determine that this is indeed a localized phenomenon in the EU or is there a general convergence between all countries. The paper uses a fixed effects approach in order to determine the impact of partnership and use of the Euro within the EU. I find evidence of convergence and a positive benefit from partnership; however, using the Euro appears to have a negative impact on countries
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2015
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Departmental Honors
Discipline: Economics
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Badinger, Harald, and Fritz Breuss. "Trade Effects of the Euro. Small Countries, Large Gains!" Europainstitut, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2007. http://epub.wu.ac.at/322/1/document.pdf.
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Several studies suggest that the introduction of the Euro has triggered sizeable increases in intra-Euro area trade. In this paper we test whether these gains are distributed asymmetrically among Euro area countries with respect to country size. This hypothesis is motivated by Casella (1996), who postulates that small countries of a trade bloc gain more from its enlargement. We argue that the implications of this model do also apply to the introduction of a common currency and test for a small country bonus using aggregate trade data and disaggregated trade data at the SITC1, SITC2, and SITC3 level. The results suggest that there is indeed strong evidence for a small country bonus with respect to the gains from trade after the introduction of the Euro. On average, the Euro triggered a reallocation of intra-Euro area exports to small countries by some 6 percent.Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
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Araújo, Wilson Nicolau Melim. "The Margins of portuguese trade and the euro." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10185.
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Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e PrevisãoEste artigo analisa as características seccionais e temporais das exportações Portuguesas entre 1995 e 2002, antes e depois da introdução da moeda única europeia: o Euro. A análise baseia-se num conjunto de margens de comércio, que compõem o valor total das exportações num dado mercado, incluindo o número de empresas exportadoras, o número de produtos exportados (margem extensiva), e as exportações médias por combinação empresa-produto (margem intensiva). Usando uma base de dados de comércio internacional para Portugal, extremamente rica e extensiva, demonstramos os seguintes resultados. Em primeiro lugar, a margem extensiva (principalmente o número de exportadores e o número de produtos exportados) é o principal factor que explica a variação seccional das exportações Portuguesas entre os parceiros comerciais. Em segundo lugar, a evolução ao longo do tempo de todas as margens de comércio para a Zona Euro é dominada por uma raiz unitária, implicando, por exemplo, que os choques que afectam o número de exportadores, o número de produtos exportados ou as exportações médias por combinação empresa-produto terão efeitos permanentes. Em terceiro lugar, identificamos três possíveis efeitos da introdução do Euro em 1999: (i) um efeito positivo sobre o número de empresas exportadoras nos quatro anos anteriores à introdução, (ii) um efeito positivo na margem intensiva, i.e., exportações médias por combinação empresa-produto, de 1998 até 2002, e (iii) uma tendência para as empresas homogeneizarem o conjunto de produtos exportados para diferentes destinos, de 1999 a 2002.
This paper analyzes the cross-sectional and time-series characteristics of Portuguese exports between 1995 and 2002, before and after the introduction of the single European currency: the Euro. The analysis focuses on a set of trade margins, that compose the total value of exports in a given market, including the number of exporting firms, the number of products exported (extensive margin), and the average exports per firm-product pair (intensive margin). Using an extremely rich and comprehensive international trade data set for Portugal, we show the following results. First, the extensive margin (mainly the number of exporters and the number of exported products) is the main factor explaining the cross-sectional variation of Portuguese exports across trading partners. Second, the evolution over time of all trade margins for the Euro Zone is dominated by a unit root, implying, for example, that shocks affecting the number of exporters, the number of exported products or the average exports per firm-product pair will have permanent effects. Third, we identify three potential effects of the introduction of the Euro in 1999: (i) a positive effect on the number of exporting firms in the four years before the introduction; (ii) a positive effect on the intensive margin, i.e. average exports per firm-product pair, from 1998 until 2002, and (iii) a tendency for firms to homogenize the set of products exported to different destinations, from 1999 to 2002.
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Torre, Ricardo Reis da. "Government debt and economic growth in the Euro Area : an empirical investigation." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16408.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraEsta dissertação analisa a relação quadrática entre o rácio da dívida sobre o PIB e o crescimento económico, com o objectivo de encontrar um limite a partir do qual um aumento da dívida prejudique o crescimento. Ao observar 12 países europeus entre 1993 e 2017, encontrou-se evidência empírica que sugere a existência de tais limites quando o rácio toma valores próximos de 110%. Este número é maior do que aquele encontrado em trabalhos de investigação anteriores. Também foi analisado o efeito de crescimento do rácio da dívida sobre o PIB, que pode ser mais forte do que o efeito do rácio em si.
This dissertation studies the quadratic relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP growth rate, and attempts to find threshold levels past which an increase in debt harms growth. Observing 12 European countries from 1993 to 2017, evidence was found supporting the existence of thresholds around the 110% debt-to-GDP ratio. These thresholds are considerably higher than those found in previous research. The growth rate of the debt-to-GDP ratio was also analyzed and found to have an impact on GDP growth which might be stronger than that of the ratio itself.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Leitner, Christoph, Achim Zeileis, and Kurt Hornik. "Predicting the Winner of the EURO 2008. A statistical investigation of bookmakers odds." Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2008. http://epub.wu.ac.at/674/1/document.pdf.
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In June 2008 one of the biggest and most popular sports tournaments took place in Austria and Switzerland, the European football championship 2008 (UEFA EURO 2008). Before the tournament started millions of football supporters throughout the world were asking themselves, just as we did: "Who is going to win the EURO 2008?". We investigate a method for forecasting the tournament outcome, that is not based on historical data (such as scores in previous matches) but on quoted winning odds for each of the 16 teams as provided by 45 international bookmakers. By using a mixed-effects model with a team-specific random effect and fixed effects for the bookmaker and the preliminary group we model the unknown "true" log-odds for winning the championship. The final of the EURO 2008 was played by the teams Germany and Spain. This was exactly the fixture that our method forecasted with a probability of about 20.2%. Furthermore, estimated winning probabilities can be derived from our model, where team Germany, the runner-up of the final had the highest probability (17.6%) to win the title and team Spain the winner of the tournament had the second best chance to win the championship (12.3%). To adjust for effects of the tournament schedule including the group draw, we recovered the latent team strength (underlying the bookmakers' expectations) to answer the question: Will the "best" team win? An ex post analysis of the tournament showed that our method yields good predictions of the tournament outcome and outperforms the FIFA/Coca Cola World rating and the Elo rating.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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Ohainski, Aenne. "The euro effect – the impact of EU bilateral real exchange rates on German net FDI : evidence from Germany and seven EU-countries." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-44384.
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In literature it has been stated that in times of low capital barriers policies can impact real exchange rates (RERs) and, it has been shown that RERs influence foreign direct investment (FDI). As inward FDI is a growth stimulating factor for the German economy and as more than a third of inward FDI stems from countries in the European Union (EU), this study investigates the RER-FDI link between Germany and seven EU countries. The impact of bilateral RERs between Germany and seven EU countries on German net FDI inflows is examined for the period 1974-2018. Further, it is investigated how the euro introduction in 1999 affected the RER-FDI links. Using Ordinary Least Squares models it is found that in the pre-euro period a real German currency appreciation led to decreases in net FDI from most economies in scope. This negative RER-FDI link endures for the non-euro countries Sweden, Denmark, and the United Kingdom after the euro introduction. France, Italy, and Spain, euro countries, are subject to the euro-effect: the negative RER-FDI link changes to a positive link with the euro introduction. This phenomenon indicates an altering investment behavior. The results are strengthened by a panel estimation as robustness check. As the euro-effect was not discovered in previous studies nor is a theory established explaining the altering investment behavior of euro firms, this thesis suggests an alternative explanation.
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Filipucci, Matteo. "Nuova normativa Euro VII per la riduzione delle emissioni inquinanti degli autoveicoli." Bachelor's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2021. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/23549/.
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La tesi mette in luce le problematiche dovute alle emissioni di sostanze inquinanti da parte dei veicoli, le soluzioni che si possono adottare per minimizzare tali emissioni e le normative europee riguardanti le emissioni, con trattazione specifica della futura norma Euro VII e delle tecnologie alla base di essa.
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Catalão, Francisco Miguel Pinheiro. "Volatility-spillover effects in european stock markets." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/1010.
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Mestrado em FinançasDurante as últimas décadas, temos visto como diferentes crises financeiras, que tiveram a sua origem em determinadas regiões ou países, se estenderam depois geograficamente, daí que, entender a volatilidade nos diversos mercados de acções se tenha tornado bastante importante para aqueles que têm que tomar as correctas decisões sobre a alocação de activos. É analisada a transmissão de volatilidade dos EUA e da Europa para diversos mercados individuais de acções de vários países europeus, utilizando para esse fim um modelo GARCH de transmissão de volatilidades. Encontrámos uma forte evidência estatística da transmissão de volatilidade dos mercados de acções dos EUA e Europa. Para os países da União Económica e Monetária os efeitos da transmissão volatilidade com origem nos EUA são mais fracos, enquanto que os efeitos da transmissão volatilidade com origem na Europa são mais fortes.
During the last decades, we have seen how different financial crisis, originated in particular regions and countries, have extended geographically, therefore, understanding volatility in stock markets has taken a very important place in determining the correct asset allocation decisions. Volatility spillover from the US and European stock markets into individual European stock markets using a GARCH volatility-spillover model is analyzed. We find strong statistical evidence of volatility spillover from the US and Europe stock markets. For Economic and Monetary Union countries, the US volatility-spillover effects are rather weak whereas the European volatility-spillover effects are strong.
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Morhs, Romuald. "Modération salariale et performances macroéconomiques dans la zone euro : une approche Kaleckienne." Grenoble 2, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007GRE21029.
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Cette thèse d'obédience kaleckienne s'attache à mettre en évidence l'incohérence des politiques salariales actuelles dans la réalisation simultanée des objectifs de stabilité des prix et de plein emploi dans la zone euro. L'idée défendue est la suivante : les politiques de modération salariale, qui sous-tendent l'existence d'un régime d'inflation basse dans la zone euro, ne sont pas en mesure de résorber le chômage qui résulte d'une insuffisance de demande effective inhérente au statu quo en matière de répartition du revenu. Dans le cas de la zone euro, trois arguments peuvent être mis en exergue pour justifier la mise en place d'une politique de relance par les salaires : (1) le degré d'ouverture de l'économie est faible, (2) la part des salaires dans le revenu national est à un niveau historiquement bas et (3) la financiarisation de l'économie a réduit la sensibilité de l'investissement aux marges de profit. Les propositions de politique économique qui découlent de cette analyse macroéconomique sont alors les suivantes. De manière à réduire le NAIRU, la Commission européenne devrait encourager les gouvernements nationaux à mettre en place une politique de redistribution progressive du revenu fondée sur la fiscalité, de manière à éviter l'instauration d'une spirale prix-salaire dans la zone euro. Conformément à l'analyse développée dans ce travail, les réformes de la fiscalité devraient par ailleurs remplir un double objectif : (1) redistribuer le revenu des rentiers vers les travailleurs, et (2) inciter les entreprises à investir davantage leurs profits dans les capacités productives et la recherche-développementThis kaleckian thesis emphasises the inconsistency of current wage moderation policies in the simultaneous achievement of price stability and full employment in the euro area. The main idea defended for this purpose is the following: wage moderation policies, which underlie the existence of a low inflation regime in the euro area, are not prone to solve the unemployment problem because of the insufficient level of effective demand. In the euro area context, three arguments can be put forward to support the implementation of a progressive income policy: (1) the openness degree is low, (2) the wage share is at an historically low level, and (3) the financialisation process has decreased the sensitivity of investment to profit margins. This macroeconomic analysis results in the following economic policy recommendations. To reduce the NAIRU, the European commission should encourage the national governments to increase the wage share in national income through taxation, in order to avoid a wage-price spiral in the euro area. In conformity with the analysis developed in this work, the tax reforms should furthermore be aimed at : (1) redistributing income from rentiers to workers, and (2) inciting the firms to invest more in productive capacity and research-development than in financial markets
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Tchakpalla, Médédé. "Are people and income flows stabilising in the Euro area ?" Thesis, Lille, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LIL1A017.
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Constituée de cinq chapitres, cette thèse s'intéresse aux mécanismes d'ajustement macroéconomique dans une union monétaire telle que la zone euro. Le premier chapitre examine la réponse de la mobilité du travail aux disparités entre les taux de croissance des salaires et les taux de chômage dans la zone euro. Les résultats indiquent que la mobilité répond aux différences nationales en matière de chômage, en particulier pendant la période de crise récente, mais pas aux différences nationales dans l'évolution des salaires. Le deuxième chapitre étudie l'effet d'équilibre ou de déséquilibre de la mobilité du travail sur les conditions du marché du travail dans la zone euro. Les résultats montrent que même si la mobilité réagit faiblement aux chocs asymétriques et aux caractéristiques structurelles dans la zone euro, elle réduit les écarts dans les conditions du marché du travail. Le troisième chapitre analyse les déterminants de la migration dans la zone euro par rapport à l'Union européenne (UE). L'objectif principal est d'identifier les facteurs qui entravent la mobilité des personnes dans la zone euro. Les principaux résultats indiquent que, mis à part les obstacles culturels et administratifs, un système de sécurité sociale généreux dans le pays d'origine freine également la mobilité des personnes dans la zone euro. Le quatrième chapitre examine le rôle stabilisateur des envois de fonds des travailleurs comme retombées de la mobilité des personnes. Les résultats montrent que les envois de fonds ne jouent pas un rôle stabilisateur ni dans la zone euro ni dans l'UE. Pire encore, les envois de fonds des travailleurs ont tendance à être procycliques dans l'UE. Enfin, le cinquième chapitre s'intéresse au partage des risques dans l’UE et met en évidence le poids des flux de revenus du travail dans le lissage des chocs asymétriques. Les résultats révèlent que le canal de partage des risques le plus important reste le marché du crédit. Le canal du marché des capitaux est quant à lui procyclique. En ce qui concerne les flux de revenus du travail, leur effet de lissage existe mais il est faibleThis thesis consists of five essays on macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms in a currency union such as the Euro area. The first essay examines the response of labour mobility to disparities in wage growth and unemployment rate in the Euro area. The results indicate that mobility responds to national differences in unemployment, especially during the crisis period, but not to national differences in wage developments. The second essay investigates the equilibrium or disequilibrium effect of labour mobility on labour market conditions in the Euro area. The findings show that even if mobility responds weakly to asymmetric shocks and structural patterns in the Euro area, it reduces differentials on labour market conditions. The third essay analyses the determinants of migration in the Euro area in comparison with the European union (EU) ; the main purpose being to identify factors that hinder mobility of people in the Euro area. The main results indicate that apart from cultural and administrative barriers, a generous social security system in the country of origin is also a drag to mobility of people in the Euro area. The fourth essay examines the stabilising role of workers' remittances as a spillover effect of labour mobility. The results show that remittances do not play a stabilising role neither in the Euro area, nor in the EU. Worse still, workers' remittances tend to be procyclical in the EU. Finally, the fifth essay looks at the risk sharing in the EU and highlights the weight of labour income flows in smoothing asymmetric shocks. The outcomes reveal that the most important channel of risk sharing remains the credit market. As for the capital market channel, it tends to be procyclical. Regarding labour income flows, their smoothing effect exists but it is low
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Johansson, Eleanor. "Highway to Hell? : Evaluating the effect of environmental policy on emissions from the Swedish truck fleet." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-264182.
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The aim of this thesis is to examine the emissions from the Swedish truck fleet between 2007- 2014. By descriptive analysis the emissions of NOx, PM, HC and CO are found to decrease at the truck level, the firm level and municipal level. A difference-in-difference analysis is performed to Stockholm municipality where a low emissions zone (LEZ) is located. Heavy trucks in the transportation sector are examined. Emissions are found to decrease more outside of the LEZ than within. This contrasts to other studies on LEZs and to the political goal of the zone. These results indicate that a green transition is occurring in the Swedish truck fleet. Moreover, the adjustment to the LEZ appears to mainly force the firms with dirty trucks located outside of Stockholm municipality to switch to cleaner vehiclesMålet med denna uppsats är att undersöka utsläpp från den svenska lastbilsflottan mellan 2007- 2014. Med hjälp av deskriptiv analys, visas att utsläppen av NOx, PM, HC och CO minskar på lastbils, företags, och kommunnivå. En difference-in-differences analys görs på Stockholms kommun där en miljözon (LEZ) finns. Tunga lastbilar i transportsektorn är undersökta. Utsläpp minskar mer utanför miljözonen än inuti. Detta står i kontrast till andra studier, samt till det politiska målet med miljözonen. Dessa resultat indikerar att en grön övergång sker i den svenska lastbilssektorn. Dessutom är anpassningen till miljözonen verkar främst påverka företag med smutsiga lastbilar som är lokaliserade utanför Stockholms kommun att byta till renare fordon.
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Leitner, Christoph, Achim Zeileis, and Kurt Hornik. "Who is Going to Win the EURO 2008? A Statistical Investigation of Bookmakers Odds." Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2008. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1570/1/document.pdf.
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This June one of the biggest and most popular sports tournaments will take place in Austria and Switzerland, the European soccer championship 2008 (UEFA EURO 2008). Therefore millions of soccer fans in Europe and throughout the world are asking themselves: "Who is going to win the EURO 2008?" Many people, including sports experts and former players, give their guesses and expectations in the media, but there is also a group with financial incentives, like some economists who expect economical increases for the country of the winning team and bookmakers and their customers who directly make money with their beliefs. Some predictions are only guesses, but other predictions are based on quantitative methods, such as the studies of UBS Wealth Management Research Switzerland and the Raiffeisen Zentralbank. In this report we will introduce a new method for predicting the winner. Whereas other prediction methods are based on historical data, e.g., the Elo rating, or the FIFA/Coca Cola World rating, our method is based on current expectations, the bookmakers odds for winning the championship. In particular we use the odds for winning the championship for each of the 16 teams of 45 international bookmakers. By interpreting these odds as rating of the expected strength of the teams by the bookmakers, we derive a consensus rating by modelling the log-odds using a random-effects model with a team-specific random effect and a bookmaker-specific fixed effect. The consensus rating of a team can be used as an estimator for the unknown "true" strength of a team. Our method predicts team Germany with a probability of about 18.7% as the EURO 2008 winner. We predict also that the teams playing the final will be Germany and Spain with a probability of 13.9%, where Germany will win with a probability of 55%. In our study, Italy, the favorite according to the current FIFA/Coca Cola World ranking and Elo ranking, has a much lower probability than these teams to win the tournament: only 10.6%. The defending champion Greece has low chances to win the title again: about 3.4%. Furthermore, the expected performance of the host countries, Austria and Switzerland, is much better in the bookmakers consensus than in the retrospective Elo and FIFA/Coca Cola World ratings, i.e., indicating an (expected) home court advantage. Despite the associated increase in the winning probabilities, both teams have rather poor chances to win the tournament with probabilities of 1.3% and 4.0%, respectively. In a group effect study we investigate how much the classification into the four groups (A-D) affects the chance for a team to win the championship.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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Soupashis, Marios. "The effect of the pricing policy of the Cypriot banks upon accession to the Euro area as at 31/12/2007." Thesis, Middlesex University, 2010. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/6212/.
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Cyprus’ accession into the Eurozone has been a cornerstone on the modern history of the island. The research project is concentrating on the effect that Cyprus’ participation in the Euro Area will have on the banking and financial institutions. The new Euro Area environment is characterized by “price stability” and that is achieved through an interest rate mechanism set by the European Central Bank. The interest rate levels however, are not disbursed uniformly within each member state. It was identified quite early in the research project that a number of factors are affecting the depositors and borrowers characteristics. Factors such as risk exposure, disposable income, alternative financing sources, average firm size, banking market concentration, asset and liability structure differ from one member state to another. For a banking institution, these particular factors, are enough to deviate from the interest rate benchmark that the European Central Bank is setting, in order to operate efficiently and profitable within each member state’s economic characteristics. The research project was concentrated on the level of the interest rates that exist between the different deposit and loan type products in the Cypriot economy and in the Euro Area. Involving case description general analytic strategies, results were produced from the description of the Euro Area and Cypriot economies, the Euro Area MFIs against Cypriot banks and also at the end the Creek banks against the Cypriot banks. It was proved that during this transition period, there exists disequilibrium on the level of the interest rates between the Cypriot banks, the Euro Area MFIs and the Greek banks. It is also proved that these differences on the level of the interest rates are in favour of the Cypriot banks.
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Awa, Ruth. "An investigation of the effect of the European currency union (Euro) on sectoral trade : an application of the gravity model of trade." Thesis, Robert Gordon University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10059/1266.
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The introduction of the single currency (Euro) in Europe has been referred to as the ‘world’s largest economic experiment’ and has led to major research on the effects of the adoption of a common currency on economic activity with considerable emphasis on its effect on trade flows at the macroeconomic level. However, the investigation of the euro effect on individual sectors has received very little attention and this provides the motivation for the research. The main contribution of this thesis is to the sectoral analysis of the single currency’s effect on bi-lateral trade flows, specifically the effects on the transport equipment manufacturing sector. In order to achieve this, a comparison of the different estimation methods applied in the gravity model literature will be employed to investigate this effect and to identify the factors affecting trade in this sector. This study uses a panel data set which comprises the most recent information on bilateral trade for the EU15 countries from 1990 to 2008. This research aims to build on the results obtained in previous studies by employing a more refined empirical methodology and associated tests. The purpose of the tests is to ensure that the euro’s effect on trade is isolated from the other pro- trade policies of the European integration processes, particularly the introduction of the Single Market. The desirable feature of this approach is that, while other studies limit their attention to a particular issue (zero trade flow, time trend, sectoral analysis, cross-correlation, etc.), very few, if any, apply a selection of techniques. Overall, the results demonstrate that the single currency’s effect on trade in this sector is limited with only the fixed effects formulation with year dummy variables showing a significant positive effect of the euro. An obvious policy implication for countries looking to adopt a single currency is that they should be cautious regarding the potential for growth in intra-bloc trade in a particular sector, although they will benefit from the on-going process of integration.
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Shah, Syed Muhammad Noaman. "Analyzing spillover effects between sovereign, financial and real sectors during the euro zone crisis." Thesis, Orléans, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016ORLE0501/document.
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Alors que le début de la crise de l'euro a relancé le débat sur l’interdépendance du risque decrédit et la relation dette bancaire-dette souveraine, l’importance du secteur réel est négligéedans l’élaboration des mesures de relance de la croissance économique dans la zone euro. Cettethèse se concentre sur ces questions au sein de la zone euro. D’abord, nous évaluons les effets«spillover» de la crise souveraine sur le coût de crédit des entreprises non financières enprésence des mesures d’austérité (Chapitre-I). Nos résultats indiquent un effet significatif de ladette publique sur le coût des prêts. En outre, en période de crise, les mesures d’austéritéimpactent significativement le coût de crédit tandis qu’avant la crise, on note une petite illustrationde la demande agrégée de Keynes. Ensuite, nous montrons que les fonctions traditionnelles desbanques, notamment celle de création de liquidité fragilisent le secteur souverain (Chapitre-II). Enparticulier, nous montrons que le risque de liquidité des banques agit comme un canal depropagation de l'incertitude vers les sociétés non financières et inversement. Enfin, nousexaminons la dynamique du risque de crédit sur la dette souveraine, les entreprises et lesbanques (Chapitre-III). Nos résultats montrent qu’il existe un risque de contagion sur les secteurset les marchés financiers de l’union monétaire. Par ailleurs, les résultats des simulations dechocs de primes de risque des pays «noyaux» de la zone euro confirment l’existence d’effetsindirects sur le reste de la zone. De plus, nous constatons un phénomène de fuite desinvestisseurs vers les valeurs refugesThe onset of euro crisis has rekindled the policy debate regarding credit risk interdependenceamong sovereign-bank nexus. In this vein, the importance of real sector is overlooked whileformulating corrective measures for the recovery of economic growth in EMU. This thesispresents a study that examined these issues in euro zone. First, we evaluate spillover effect ofeuro crisis on borrowing cost of non-financial firms in presence of austerity measures (Chapter-I).Our results suggest significant effect especially where creditor rights protection are weak. Inaddition during recent crisis, results indicate presence of credibility channel due to austeritymeasures whereas; there is slight indication of aggregate demand channel before crisis. Second,we find traditional function of bank’s liquidity creation as a significant conduit of sovereign distressto real sector (Chapter-II). Particularly, our main finding shows that bank liquidity risk acts as aconduit which propagates uncertainty towards non-financial firms and re-channels it back torespective government. Finally, we examine cross-market credit risk dynamics among sovereignbank-firm nexus to identify presence of contagion during euro crisis period (Chapter-III). Ourresults report grave evidence of credit risk contagion across sectors and member states incorresponding financial markets in EMU. Moreover like peripheral countries, simulation results toshock in core countries risk premia strongly provide evidence of contagion towards remainingeuro zone
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Riepl, Judith. "Effets de site : évaluation expérimentale et modélisations multi-dimensionnelles : application au site test EURO-SEISTEST (Grèce)." Grenoble 1, 1997. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00709591.
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L'objectif de cette these est l'etude fine des effets d'amplification suite a la geologie locale, notamment dans des bassins sedimentaires, ainsi que l'evaluation des avantages et limites des methodes d'estimations. La partie experimentale est basee sur des donnees acquises au site test euro-seistest, le premier site-test en europe occidentale proche de thessalonique (grece). Apres une evaluation des effets d'amplification au site meme et une etude de leur stabilite en fonction de plusieurs parametres, les estimations obtenues par cinq methodes differentes (la methode des rapports spectraux classique, la methode des fonctions recepteurs, une inversion generalisee, une methode de la coda et la methode de nakamura) sont comparees entre elles. Les avantages et limites de chaque methode sont evaluees. Les resultats sont dans la suite confrontes et compares avec des modelisations uni- et bidimensionnelles. La variabilite spatiale a travers la vallee examinee est etudiee par la coherence spatiale. La grande couverture spatiale par des stations installees au site a permis de separer deux zones d'un comportement different de la coherence entre deux signaux dependant de la distance qui les separe. Ceci n'a jamais ete remarque dans des etudes precedents a cause d'une couverture spatiale trop faible. Finalement, l'etude parametrique des effets d'amplifications dans un milieu heterogene en trois dimensions montre que l'effet geometrique est important et peut provoquer des amplifications significatives. La reponse d'un milieu plus complexe n'est difficilement a prevoir, depend de l'azimut de l'onde incidente et montre des amplifications importantes en presence d'un forte contraste d'impedance present.
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Šedivá, Radka. "An Empirical Analysis of Trade Effects of the European Monetary Union." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-165975.
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This master dissertation deals with broadly discussed topic -- are there really some trade enhancing effects for countries that have adopted the euro? This thesis provides an estimate of the effect of the European Monetary Union on trade, taking into account panel data of 37 economies during sample period 1995 -- 2012. The sample consists of 27 European Union members and 10 non-EU OECD countries. After applying gravity model of trade and controlling for gravity-model-specific influences, the effect of the euro on trade obtained from the results of the estimation is positive and statistically significant 9 per cent.
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Betti, Thierry. "Fiscal policy and the labor market in the Euro area : multiplier, spillover effects and fiscal federalism." Thesis, Strasbourg, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015STRAB010/document.
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Cette thèse contribue aux travaux récents sur les effets de la politique budgétaire à court terme sur l'économie. Plus précisément, sont étudiés dans cette thèse trois principaux aspects de la politique budgétaire à court terme. Premièrement, un des messages principaux consiste à dire que l'impact de la politique budgétaire sur l'économie dépend fortement de l'instrument fiscal utilisé. Augmenter les transferts aux ménages, augmenter l'investissement public ou diminuer les cotisations patronales sur les salaires produisent des effets fort différents sur les variables macroéconomiques clefs et notamment sur le niveau d'activité. Deuxièmement, au delà des effets sur l'activité économique, une large partie de cette thèse analyse l'impact de chocs budgétaires sur le marché du travail. Un des principaux résultats est qu'il paraît délicat de traduire des multiplicateurs sur l'activité en multiplicateurs sur le chômage, notamment à cause de la réponse de l'offre de travail.Troisièmement, nous savons que de multiples facteurs influencent la taille du multiplicateur budgétaire. Deux de ces éléments sont abordés dans cette thèse : la position de l'économie sur le cycle économique et la réponse de la politique monétaire. Les deux premiers chapitres de la thèse analysent ces différents aspects dans un cadre d'économie fermée. Les deux derniers chapitres traitent de la politique budgétaire en union monétaire en analysant les effets de débordement entre États membres ainsi que les capacités stabilisatrices de mécanismes de transferts budgétaires entre États membres afin d'amortir les chocs conjoncturelsThis thesis aims at contributing to the recent studies which investigate the short-run effects of fiscal policy on economic activity. More precisely, three main aspects of fiscal policy in the short run are analyzed. First, one major message is that the impact of fiscal policy on the economy depends strongly on the fiscal instrument used by the government. Rising transfers to households, increasing public investment or cutting social protection tax trigger very different effects on key macroeconomic variables and especially on output. Second, one large part of this thesis is dedicated to the analysis of the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the labor market. One main result is that we cannot determine unemployment fiscal multipliers according to the value of the output fiscal multiplier, especially because of the response of the labor force participation to fiscal policy shocks. Third, this is well-known that many elements influence the size of the output fiscal multiplier. Two of these elements are considered throughout this thesis: the position of the economy over the business cycle and the behavior of the monetary policy. The two first chapters of this thesis analyze these different aspects in some closed economy models. The two last chapters extend this study at the case of a monetary union by investigating the spillover effects of fiscal policy between member states but also the stabilizing properties of fiscal transfer mechanisms between member states in order to soften cyclical shocks
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Vasconcelos, Gonçalo Maria Pinheiro Machado de Almeida e. "The effects of mega-events on city branding: the example of warsaw and Euro 2012." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9623.
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Elali, Mahmoud. "Transmission de la politique monétaire commune et hétérogénéité des systèmes bancaires dans les pays de la zone euro." Thesis, Paris 10, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA100027.
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Cette thèse est consacrée à l’étude de transmission de la politique monétaire dans la zone Euro, en traitant le canal du taux d’intérêt et le canal du crédit. La démarche suivie consiste à combiner des approches théoriques et empiriques de façon à mettre en évidence empiriquement l’hétérogénéité de transmission au sein de la zone euro et l’existence du canal du crédit. Le premier chapitre consiste à étudier le pass-through aux taux bancaires. D’après les résultats, le processus de transmission semble bien influencé par la spécificité des pays de la zone euro. Les niveaux et les vitesses de transmission restent en effet hétérogènes, le niveau du pass-through est incomplet dans la plupart des cas et il a diminué au cours de la période étudiée, en particulier après la crise financière. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l’étude des déterminants de la transmission. D’après les résultats, l’hétérogénéité de la transmission se trouve son origine dans les différences des structures des banques et des marchés bancaires et dans les différences de l’intégration bancaire. Le dernier chapitre est consacré à examiner le canal du crédit dans la zone euro en distinguant la réaction des banques sur la bas de la taille, la capitalisation et la diversification bancaires. Les résultats confirment l’existence du canal du crédit dans la zone euro qui s’avère plus important après la crise financière, et montre aussi que la taille et la capitalisation bancaire jouent un rôle important dans la réaction des banques aux chocs monétaires. Cette présente thèse a apporté de nouveaux résultats par rapport à la littérature et elle a montré que le pass-through résultant de l’estimation du modèle MCE en seule étape est supérieur pour certains cas à celui du modèle en deux étapes, ainsi que le canal du crédit semble jouer un rôle plus considérable pendant la période de la criseThe aim of this thesis is to study the transmission of monetary policy in the Euro Zone, by treating the channels of interest rate and credit. The approach consists of combining theoretical and empirical approaches in order to empirically highlight the heterogeneity of transmission within the Euro Zone and the existence of the credit channel. The first chapter dilates on the study of pass-through through banking rates. According to results, the process of pass-through seems well influenced by the specificity of the countries of Euro Zone. The levels and speeds of transmission remain heterogeneous; the level of pass-through is incomplete in most cases and decreases during the period under study, in particular after the financial crisis. The second chapter is devoted to investigate the determinants of transmission. According to results, the heterogeneity of transmission finds its origin in the differences of the structure of banks, banking markets, and in the differences of banking integration. The final chapter examines the channel of the credit in the Euro Zone by distinguishing the reaction of banks on the basis of size, capitalization, and diversification. The results confirm the existence of credit channel in the Euro Zone, which proves to be even more important after the financial crisis, and also shows that the size and capitalization of the banks play a significant role in the reaction of the banks to the monetary shocks. This thesis produces new results compared to the literature and it shows that the pass-through resulting from the estimate of ECM model in one stage is higher for certain cases, as well as the credit channel seem to play a more considerable role during the period of the crisis
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Carvalho, Vítor Manuel Costa. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in a New-Keynesian General Equilibrium Model for the Euro Area." Doctoral thesis, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10216/20601.
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Carvalho, Vítor Manuel Costa. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in a New-Keynesian General Equilibrium Model for the Euro Area." Tese, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10216/20601.
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Dakouo, Cyprien. "La convergence des productivités : comparaison entre la zone euro et les autres pays de l’OCDE." Thesis, Lille 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LIL12011.
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L’objectif de réduction des écarts de niveaux de vie entre les pays membres de l’Union Monétaire Européenne nécessite la convergence des productivités entre les économies. Notre contribution est de comparer la dynamique sur longue période des Productivités Globales des Facteurs (PGF) des pays de la zone euro à celles d’un ensemble de pays dénommé "autres OCDE". Cet objectif général est subordonné à deux autres plus spécifiques : 1) Analyser les gains de productivité par une approche paramétrique des frontières de production afin d’examiner la sigma-convergence des PGF des deux zones. 2) Etudier les évolutions des inefficacités productives sous-jacentes aux dynamiques de la PGF en s’appuyant sur un modèle d’activités non paramétrique. Nous étudions les évolutions de 11 pays de la zone euro et de 11 pays « autres OCDE entre 1965 et 2015. Nos résultats montrent que la zone euro connait un meilleur taux de croissance tendanciel de la PGF que celui des autres pays de l’OCDE ; bien que les niveaux de productivité de ceux-ci soient plus élevés. Par ailleurs, les variations des inefficacités productives attestent l’existence d’un rattrapage technologique au sein de chaque zone. Ce phénomène se fait non pas vers la frontière mais en dessous de celle-ci. De plus, la réduction des inefficacités structurelles entre le milieu des années 1970 et le début des années 2000 témoignent d’une homogénéisation des mixes d’output/inputs entre les pays membres. La convergence conditionnelle aux variables monétaires budgétaires et réelles conduit à des résultats différents suivant qu’il s’agit du processus de rattrapage technique ou de celui de la convergence structurelle. Toutefois au début des années 2000, un mouvement de divergence s’installe entre les pays de l’Euroland et s’accentue à partir de 2008-2009The objective of reducing differences in living standards among the Eurozone countries requires the convergence of productivity levels between economies. Our contribution is to compare the long-run dynamics of the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) among the Eurozone countries to that of another group, referred to as "other OECD countries". This general objective is divided into two more specific research subjects: 1) To analyze the productivity gains based on a parametric activity framework of production set to investigate the absolute Sigma-convergence of the TFPs in the two zones. 2) To examine the evolution of the productive inefficiencies underlying the dynamics of the TFP, based on a nonparametric activity model. We observed the evolutions of 11 Eurozone countries, and 11 other OECD countries over the period 1965-2015. Our empirical results show that the level of productivity still seems to be higher in other OECD countries even the growth rate of productivity is greater in the Eurozone. This indicates a catch- up phenomenon between two groups and a sigma-convergence is observed before the end of 1990s. However, the catching up efficiency processes do not move the countries toward the frontier but make them converge below the frontier. Additionally, a significant decrease in structural inefficiencies is noticed between the mid-1970s and the early 2000s which indicates the homogenization of output / input mixes for each zone. The convergence process is conditional to real and monetary variables which may differ according to the technical catch-up or the structural efficiency dynamics. However, it seems that these dynamics have been interrupted since the creation of the Euro and have been even turned to a movement of divergence since the subprime crisis in 2008
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Mai, Thi Van Anh. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on export : Empirical study between Sweden and Germany." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-14929.
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The relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flow has been examined in a number of previous researches. The paper mainly focuses on investigating the impact of exchange rate volatility on export values from Sweden to Germany during 2000:01 and 2011:06. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to obtain the estimates of the long run equilibrium and the short run dynamics, simultaneously. The results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant short run effects on export value in majority of estimated industries while its meaningful long run impacts do not appear in any cases. However, applying the “bounds test” approach, the co-integration is also found in more than half cases due to long run impacts of other factors such as foreign income on export earnings.
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Aho, Huotari Marie, and Kristin Andersson. "Har en gemensam valuta resulterat i en minskad prisspridning? : En jämförande studie på priskonvergens inom euroländer i förhållande till övriga EU länder." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-24044.
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In 1993 the internal market within the European Union was formed and ensured free movement of goods, services, capital and people. This led to the removal of trade barriers between members of the European Union. When opening up for competition, price differences between countries decreased and more jobs were created. A single currency was introduced by eleven countries in 1999 with the goal of reducing transaction costs, eliminating exchange rate risk and to further simplify trade. In 2001 Greece joined the collaboration and introduced the euro. With a single currency, price differences are expected to decrease. The aim of this study is to investigate whether a common currency has had a significant effect on reducing price dispersion or not. Two types of convergence are tested, beta and sigma convergence. 21 different product groups are included in this study and are sorted after the speed of convergence. All of the 27 EU member states are included and divided into two groups, one euro group and one non-euro group. We also examine if differences in productivity can explain price convergence. The results indicate that the introduction of a common currency did not decrease price dispersion within the majority of product groups. For the product groups in which price convergence are evident, only one product group within the euro countries and one product group within the non-euro countries have proven to be significantly positive in terms of differences in productivity.
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Breuss, Fritz. "Balassa-Samuelson effects in the CEEC. Are they obstacles for joining the EMU?" Forschungsinstitut für Europafragen, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2003. http://epub.wu.ac.at/198/1/document.pdf.
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A phantom is haunting the EU enlargement process. Some fear that the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect might be a major obstacle for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) to become members of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). A review of the relevant literature reveals that most estimations of the B-S effect in the EU acceding countries are flawed by one kind or the other. Either they do not estimate correctly the B-S propositions, or if they measure it they use a variety of measures for the variables needed. Additionally, the B-S effect is only a special case of a broader approach towards equilibrium real exchange rates. Lastly the B-S effect is studied in a CGE multi-country world in order to detect possible spillover effects. After describing the "official" road map towards the EMU, it is concluded that the uncertainties in measuring the B-S are much too high in order to see in it (alone) a major hindrance for the CEEC to become early members of the EMU. Moreover, real exchange rate appreciations that reflect productivity gains in the tradable sector are an equilibrium phenomenon and do not require a policy response. They are a natural phenomena in catching-up countries like the CEEC. Furthermore, the official doctrine for entering the EMU by the EU/ECB only interdicts depreciations but not appreciations for potential EMU members. (author's abstract)Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
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Fuentes, Rebecca M. "Exposure-based cognitive behavioral treatment for phobic and anxiety disorders: treatment effects and maintenance for Hispanic American relative to Euro-American youths." FIU Digital Commons, 2002. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3423.
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A total of 131 Hispanic American and Euro-American youths (ages 6 to 16 years) who participated in previous clinical trials for phobic and anxiety disorders were compared in terms of treatment gains and maintenance. In terms of treatment gains, the findings indicated that Hispanic American and Euro-American youths responded more similarly than differently to the exposure-based cognitive/behavioral treatments from pre- to post-treatment. This was found using traditional hypotheses testing, calculation of effect sizes, and statistical equivalence testing. In terms of treatment maintenance, the findings also demonstrated that Hispanic American and Euro- American youths responded more similarly than differently, albeit with some variations within specific assessment points. The findings are discussed in terms of the need to evaluate empirically supported treatments for use with ethnic minority populations, particularly Hispanic Americans.
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Ždárek, Václav. "Essays in debt sustainability, effects of institutional changes on fiscal policy in the Euro area and consumption responses to a shock in public salaries." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/91984/.
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The worst economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s, the Great Recession, followed by the Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC) in Euro area countries have revived interest in fiscal policy, and particularly in various topics related to its interactions with monetary policy in a monetary union. Despite a recent surge in theoretical and empirical work in this area, there are still many important questions that have not been explored and this thesis aims to fill this gap. This thesis consists of three essays. Chapter one and chapter two focus on particular sets of questions that partially address newly emerging problems in the wake of the ESDC. Their common link is the existence of the Euro area and problems of national fiscal policies in this monetary union. Chapter three analyses effects of a government intervention in the form of an unexpected public sector salary increase. The main focus of chapter one is on fiscal (debt) sustainability and the so-called fiscal fatigue hypothesis (`debt legacy'). For that purpose I firstly estimate a fiscal policy rule for Euro area countries, and test its robustness with various economic, financial and institutional determinants. Subsequently, the fiscal fatigue hypothesis is examined by estimating a non-linear specification of the same fiscal policy rule as suggested in the literature. In addition, I propose a simple linear debt rule for identifying the risk of fiscal fatigue. In chapter two I analyse the fiscal policy behaviour of `old' Euro area countries (EA-12) and three stand-alone EU countries (EU-3), given institutional constraints imposed on fiscal policy in the wake of the European integration process. To capture the changing nature of fiscal behaviour, I estimate a Bayesian time-varying parameter fiscal rule. Since fiscal harmonization is an important consequence of fiscal constraint, I also try to capture that effect by looking at the dispersion of country-specific Euro area fiscal behaviour and compare it with countries facing less strict fiscal constraints (EU-3). The last chapter aims to shed some light on a government intervention (a quasi-natural experiment) represented by an unexpected increase of public employees' salary. Given the type of intervention, I can construct a `natural' treated and a control group (private employees) and link them with data from a household budget survey. To compare their consumption behaviour, I estimate a regression model controlling for relevant economic and socio-demographic characteristics.
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Nilsson, Alexander. "Crowding out or crowding in? : A study on the effects of the public debt ratio on private investments of countries in the euro area." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-173254.
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The evolution of public debt in the euro area into unsustainable levels is discussed now more than ever after the recent financial crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis that followed. With countries like Greece and Italy hovering around the level of 181.2- and 134.8 percent of GDP in public debt in 2018 (AMECO database), it is hard not to be worried about the future. Macroeconomic theory predicts that increased bond-financed government expenditure will crowd out private investment. This paper tests the credibility of this theory by empirically examining the effect of public debt ratios on private investment in 26 countries in the euro area from 1999 to 2018. By using panel data regression, accounting for fixed effects, it emerged that public debt ratios are negatively correlated with private investment as is predicted by the crowding out theory. However, no statistically significant negative correlation was found when introducing an instrumental variable, military expenditure.
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Гладченко, Оксана Робертівна, Оксана Робертовна Гладченко, Oksana Robertivna Hladchenko, and V. N. Levenets. "EURO 2012." Thesis, Видавництво СумДУ, 2011. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/13358.
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At this stage of development of Ukraine holding of such events as the European Championships have a positive impact on economic growth. For the organization of suitable conditions for accepting the Championship in the infrastructure of cities such as Donetsk, Kiev, Dnipropetrovsk, Lviv, Kharkiv and Odessa will be invested millions of investments. There will also be a program of repair of roads and railways. In addition, Euro 2012 without a doubt a positive impact on the country's position in the global community. Consequently, the choice of Ukraine as one of the countries that take the Championship, have a positive impact on its development.
When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/13358
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Discours, Maxime. "L’arbitrage international à l’épreuve de l’expansionnisme du droit de l'Union européenne." Thesis, Paris 10, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PA100037.
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Quels rapports entretiennent l’Union européenne et l’arbitrage international ? Intuitivement, il serait tentant de répondre que leur interaction est limitée, sinon inexistante. De bonnes raisons permettent, d’ailleurs, de le penser. Il n’est que de songer aux logiques différentes desquelles ces deux droits procèdent pour s’en convaincre. De fait, le droit de l’Union européenne repose sur une logique d’expansion et de contrôle tandis que l’arbitrage international repose sur une démarche d’émancipation de l’emprise étatique. Plus encore, il ne faut pas perdre de vue que l’Union ne dispose d’aucune compétence en matière d’arbitrage. L’affaire semble donc entendue. Mais c’est sans compter sur la nature expansionniste de l’Union qui, en raison de la lecture téléologique des objectifs des traités, lui permet d’accroître progressivement son domaine de compétences. Un bref survol du droit positif de l’Union permet de conclure que l’arbitrage est indéniablement affecté par le droit de l’Union. Il s’agira alors, en premier lieu, de déterminer la mesure dans laquelle l’Union peut influencer la pratique arbitrale et les réactions dont disposent les arbitres pour contrer cette influence. Enfin, il y aura lieu d’élaborer des éléments de propositions visant à instaurer une interaction harmonieuse entre le droit de l’arbitrage international et de l’Union européenneHow do the law of the European Union and international arbitral interact with each other? At first sight, one could think that their interaction is limited. Two main arguments can be brought forward to support that idea. Firstly, these two sets of laws proceed from antagonist rationale. On one ahnd the law of the European Union has an expasionist nature which serves its ultimate purpose that is the integration. Secondly, international arbitration aims at getting more independence from states’ laws. Furthermore, the European Union does not have any competence to control international arbitration. Considering these elements, any form of interaction between these two sets of laws seems doubtful. But, one must not forget the European Union’s propensity to increase its competences thanks to the spillover effect. A brief glimpse at the law of the European Union leads to the conclusion that international arbitration is influenced by the European Union. Therefore, the first purpose of this work will be to determine to what extent the law of the European Union can influence the arbitral practice and the means arbitrators have as a defence mechanism. Finally, some propositions will be drawn up in order to set up a smooth interaction between international arbitration and the law of the European Union
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Leal, Frederico Gonçalo da Silva. "Essays on fiscal policy in the Eurozone." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21443.
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Doutoramento em EconomiaA política orçamental, através da gestão das receitas e despesas públicas, é usualmente utilizada pelos decisores políticos para influenciar a atividade económica, nomeadamente através do controlo do rendimento disponível, de uma reafectação eficiente dos recursos existentes, do fornecimento de bens e serviços, bem como da correção de falhas de mercado. De acordo com o disposto na teoria Keynesiana, elaborada durante a Grande Recessão (década de 1930), os efeitos da política orçamental deverão variar de acordo com a fase do ciclo económico e dos instrumentos utilizados, sendo estes mais necessários e eficazes durante recessões. Contudo, em alguns episódios históricos, a evidência empírica parece contrariar as previsões teóricas efetuadas à luz da teoria Keynesiana, originando os comumente chamados efeitos não-Keynesianos da política orçamental. Por sua vez, a última Grande Recessão trouxe, uma vez mais, o debate relativo à eficácia da política orçamental para a literatura económica. Os elevados montantes de dívida pública acumulados na generalidade das economias europeias ocidentais comprometeram a sua sustentabilidade e restringiram decisões políticas, o que gerou repercussões tanto nos custos de financiamento soberano como no bem-estar social. Assim, diversos Estados Membros da Zona Euro foram forçados a implementar medidas mais restritivas de forma a conseguirem reduzir os seus desequilíbrios orçamentais, num cenário em que a política cambial se encontrava inacessível, e em que a taxa de inflação se apresentou especialmente baixa. Neste contexto, a presente tese debruça-se sobre o impacto macroeconómico da política orçamental nos Estados Membros da UEM, averiguando como este poderá variar de acordo com os instrumentos utilizados e com fatores intrínsecos de cada país, tendo em atenção tópicos relevantes que ainda não estão suficientemente explorados na literatura. É ainda analisado se, e como, a política orçamental poderá ser manipulada de acordo com motivações eleitoralistas, nomeadamente se as evidências empíricas dão suporte às previsões do modelo de “despesa visível” de Rogoff, ou ao modelo de despesa pública direcionada. Por outras palavras, se um hipotético aumento de despesa estará associado a mais despesas correntes, ou se existirão investimentos direcionados para satisfazer as pretensões de grupos ou regiões específicas. Num primeiro momento, foram calculados os valores dos multiplicadores orçamentais desde a criação da União Monetária. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, a despesa pública nos Estados Membros tem um impacto positivo sobre a atividade económica (multiplicador de 0,44), sendo o impacto maior perante menores níveis de endividamento soberano, recessões económicas e fases negativas do ciclo económico (hiato do produto negativo). Por sua vez, a receita fiscal apresenta valores negativos, compreendidos entre -0,11 e -0,55, podendo, no entanto, revelar um impacto expansionista em países com menores níveis de dívida pública. Porém, nem sempre as políticas resultam nos resultados expectáveis. Foram estimadas elasticidades do consumo privado, face aos instrumentos orçamentais, durante o período de 1960-2017, de forma a aferir como as elasticidades variam perante episódios orçamentais (claras ações políticas, como expansões ou consolidações orçamentais). As evidências indicam que as transferências sociais poderão estar na origem dos efeitos não-Keynesianos da política orçamental, uma vez o consumo privado apresenta elasticidades negativas face às suas variações, durante períodos de consolidação. Ainda, os episódios não-Keynesianos tornaram-se menos prováveis de serem observados após os países integrarem a Zona Euro, dado que os gastos em investimentos e as outras despesas deixaram de apresentar uma relação negativa com o consumo privado. Foi também observado que as transferências sociais aparentam ter um impacto mais recessivo durante consolidações, que aquele observado perante expansões ou na ausência de episódios orçamentais. Utilizando uma abordagem alternativa para identificar consolidações orçamentais (abordagem narrativa), foi constatado que o consumo privado continua a exibir uma resposta não-Keynesiana a choques fiscais. Por último, a política orçamental aparenta ainda ser sensível a fatores políticos. Durante anos eleitorais, os decisores políticos tendem a aumentar as despesas correntes e a diminuir o peso dos impostos diretos. Porém, a estratégia orçamental tem sofrido algumas alterações ao longo dos anos. Desde a Grande Recessão, os Estados Membros aparentam ter perdido a sua capacidade para manipular a despesa pública com objetivos eleitoralistas, e começaram a diminuir os impostos indiretos. Também, após os Estados Membros aderirem à UEM, os decisores políticos começaram a aumentar a carga fiscal dos seus países face a choques na taxa de juro, uma vez que perderam a capacidade de recorrer à política monetária.
The fiscal policy, through the management of public revenue and expenditure, is usually used by policy makers to influence economic activity, namely through the control of available income, the reallocation of resources, the supply of goods and services or the correction of market failures. Following the Keynesian perspective, designed during the Great Depression (1930’s), the effects of fiscal policy should vary over the stages of the business cycle and over fiscal instruments used, being more needed and effective during recessions. However, in some historical cases, the empirical evidence seems to contradict the theoretical predictions in the spirit of the Keynesian theory, giving rise to the so-called non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy. Therefore, the last Great Recession brought the effectiveness of fiscal policy back into debate in the economic literature. The high amounts of sovereign debt accumulated in the majority of the western European economies have been jeopardizing the sustainability of public debts, restricting political decisions, with repercussions on sovereign financing costs and on people’s welfare. Thus, several Eurozone’s Member States were forced to implement more restrictive policies in order to reduce their budgetary imbalances, in a scenario where the exchange rate policies are unavailable, and the inflation rate has been especially low. In this context, this thesis focuses on the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy on the Member States, assessing how it may vary according to the fiscal instruments used, and to country specific characteristics, taking into account some relevant topics not very explored yet in the literature. It is also analysed whether, and how, the fiscal policy can be manipulated according to electoral motivations, namely if evidence supports the predictions of the Rogoff’s “visibility expenditure” model or the Public expenditure targeting model, i.e., if the hypothetical expenditure increase will be associated with current expenditure, or if the capital expenditure will be used as a target to specific groups and locations. Firstly, it was computed the value of fiscal multipliers since the creation of the currency union. According to the results, public expenditure in Member States has a positive impact on economic growth (multiplier of 0.44), with a bigger impact on the less indebted countries, facing economic recessions and negative output gaps. In turn, tax revenue has negative values, between -0.11 and -0.55, but it can reveal an expansionary impact in countries with lower levels of public debt. However, policies do not always result in the expected results. Elasticities of private consumption to fiscal instruments were estimated during the period 1960-2017, to access how fiscal elasticities vary during fiscal episodes (clear policy actions, such as fiscal expansions or consolidations). Evidence indicates that social benefits may be a root of the non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, since private consumption shows negative elasticities facing social benefits’ shocks, during periods of fiscal consolidation. In addition, non-Keynesian episodes became less likely to be observed after countries joined the Eurozone, given that investment spending and other expenditures have lost their non-Keynesian role. It was also perceived that social transfers seem to be more contractionary in consolidations than in both expansions and in the absence of fiscal episodes. Using an alternative approach to identify fiscal consolidations (narrative approach), it is seen that private consumption continues to exhibit a non-Keynesian response to tax increases. Lastly, fiscal policy in the Eurozone countries appears to be sensitive to political factors. During election years, the incumbent Governments seem to increase current spending and to decrease the direct tax burden. However, the fiscal strategy has changed over the years. Since the Great Recession, Member States have lost their ability to manipulate the Government spending for electoral purposes and began to decrease the indirect tax burden. Furthermore, after countries joined the EMU, policy makers began to increase tax burden facing interest rate shocks, since they have lost the ability to use monetary policy.
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Staňková, Andrea. "Ready for Euro?" Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-3407.
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Recently, there has been a broad discussion regarding the timing of joining the Euro zone. The mainstream opinion is that the sooner the Czech Republic joins, the better. However, as this thesis indicates, especially the econometric model, the Czech Republic is not ready for doing so. Hence, an early accession may not be beneficial.
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Vašutová, Helena. "Španělsko a euro." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-73469.
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Spain is one of the founding countries of the European Monetary Union, that adopted the single currency in 1999. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the overall impact of the Euro on the Spanish economy. The first part briefly introduces Spain's economy. The second part is about the European Central Bank's monetary policy. This part analyses the suitability of the single monetary policy and then examines its specific implications on the Spanish economy. The third part deals with the fiscal policy and the Stability and Growth Pact. This part analyses the impact of the Euro on the public finances.
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Morvillier, Florian. "Taux de change d’équilibre et déséquilibres macroéconomiques." Thesis, Paris 10, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020PA100030.
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Cette thèse vise à étudier de façon approfondie la dynamique et les déterminants du taux de change. Elle examine également le lien entre déséquilibres internes et externes. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse à l'effet du passage à l'euro sur la vulnérabilité du compte courant à des chocs de demande et de mésalignements de change. Nos résultats montrent qu'avec l'adoption de la monnaie unique, la vulnérabilité du compte courant aux chocs de demande et de mésalignements de change augmente considérablement. Le deuxième chapitre de la thèse analyse la robustesse de l'effet Balassa Samuelson (BS) pour un panel de 38 économies en développement et émergentes sur la période 1980-2016. Nous examinons les versions interne et externe de l'hypothèse BS en nous basant sur cinq mesures différentes de l'effet BS. Nous montrons que la version interne de l'effet BS n'est vérifiée que si le différentiel de productivité du travail entre les secteurs échangeables et non échangeables est utilisé. Nous trouvons également un effet robuste du prix relatif des biens non échangés par rapport aux biens échangés sur le taux de change effectif réel (TCER). Le troisième chapitre étudie les effets non linéaires des infrastructures sur le TCER en estimant un modèle Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), visant à mettre en avant un impact différencié des infrastructures sur le TCER selon la valeur prise par la variable de transition. Nous considérons trois variables de transition différentes : le stock de télécommunications pour 1000 travailleurs, la Capacité de Production d'Electricité (CPE) pour 1000 travailleurs et la qualité du réseau électrique. Lorsque le réseau n'est pas achevé ou que le stock d'infrastructures est faible, une augmentation des CPE et du stock de télécommunications déprécie le TCER, tandis que la dépréciation supplémentaire est plus faible ou inexistante une fois le réseau établi. Les résultats obtenus sont discutés à la lumière de plusieurs canaux de transmissionThis thesis aims to study the dynamics and determinants of the exchange rate, paying particular attention to the link between internal and external imbalances. The first chapter examines the effect of the euro adoption on the vulnerability of the current account to demand and exchange rate misalignments shocks. Our results show that, with the adoption of the single currency, the vulnerability of the current account to demand shocks and exchange rate misalignments increases considerably. The second chapter of the thesis provides an in-depth analysis of the robustness of the Balassa Samuelson (BS) effect for a panel of 38 developing and emerging economies over the period 1980-2016. We examine the internal and external versions of the BS hypothesis based on five different measures. We show that the internal version of the BS effect is validated only if the labour productivity differential between tradable and non-tradable sectors is used. We also find a robust effect of the relative price of non-traded to traded goods on the real effective exchange rate (REER). The third chapter studies the non-linear effects of infrastructure on the REER by estimating a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, aiming to highlight a differentiated impact of infrastructure on the REER depending on the value taken by a transition variable. We consider three different transition variables: the telecommunications stock per 1000 workers, the Electricity Generating Capacity (EGC) per 1000 workers and the quality of the electricity network. When the network is not completed or the infrastructure stock is low, an increase in EGC and telecommunications stock depreciates the REER, while the additional depreciation is lower or non-existent once the network is established. The results obtained are discussed in the light of several transmission channels
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Ørke, John Marius. "Ordrestrømsanalyse av EURO/USD." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-6963.
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Rebstock, Remington James. "Euro-zone debt crisis." Kansas State University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/16900.
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Master of ArtsDepartment of Economics
Lloyd B. Thomas Jr
The European sovereign debt crisis has had a profound impact on the rest of the world. The “debt crisis” refers to the rapid accumulation of debt within some struggling euro-zone countries. This debt accumulation has resulted in a variety of financial bailouts made to various countries within the European Union and a debt default by the country of Greece. The results of this crisis have changed the way of life for many living within the struggling economies. Division within the euro zone, on both policy and ideology, has begged the question of whether the euro will be able to survive in the long term. The purpose of this report is to investigate the buildup and evolution of this crisis, as well as to highlight various responses and proposed solutions of the future.
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Jahnová, Lucie. "Česká republika a EURO." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-3230.
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Tato diplomová práce se zabývá problematikou vstupu České republiky do eurozóny. Úvodní část stručně popisuje dějiny vývoje EMU. Dále jsou v práci rozebrány možné způsoby přechodu na euro, výhody a nevýhody všech scénářů a volba scénáře v ČR. Podrobně se diplomová práce též věnuje maastrichtským konvergenčním kritériím a to jak z hlediska plnění Českou republikou, tak z hlediska členských států eurozóny. Poslední, nejrozsáhlejší část, je věnována načasování přijetí eura v České republice. Jsou zde uvedeny hlavní přínosy a rizika vstupu do měnové unie. Podrobně je rozpracována problematika ztráty měnové a kurzové politiky, asymetrických šoků a mimokurzových možností stabilizace ekonomiky.
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Kulhányová, Petra. "Introduction of Euro Inflation." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-16387.
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Conti, Antoniomaria. "Essays on Monetary Policy, Low Inflation and the Business Cycle." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/260933.
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The last ten years have been extremely challenging for both researchers in monetary economics and policymakers.The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, in spite of its size and severity, was initially widely perceived in the Euro Area (EA) as an imported and transitory crisis: it was frequently predicted that the EA economy would recover once the US and the World Economy rebounded. Instead, after a brief period of recovery, the Euro Area was hit by the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12, a domestic crisis which widened the divide already existing between core and peripheral countries up to the point of threatening a break-up of the euro. Thanks to the bold monetary policy response of the ECB this fear gradually vanished, but the sudden fall in oil price and the uncertain economic outlook led to the low inflation period, particularly severe in the EA, in which inflation, both in terms of headline and core measures, is well below the ECB target of 2%. This prompted the ECB to launch its Quantitative Easing program, at the beginning of 2015, much later than what the FED implemented to offset the impact of the 2007-09 crisis.This dissertation consists of two different but interlinked parts, which contribute to the empirical literature on monetary policy, low inflation and the business cycle. The first part is composed by Chapters I and II, and it is devoted to analyse the EA economy, both before the Global Financial Crisis and during the most recent low inflation period. The second one, composed by Chapters III and IV, focuses on the US economy to evaluate the possible negative consequences of the extraordinary monetary stimulus undertaken by the FED. In particular, we study the risks for both price and financial stability of the effects of the so called lift-off, i.e. the gradual normalization of monetary stance. In the first Chapter, we provide novel evidence on the different effects of the ECB common monetary policy on euro-area core and peripheral countries even before the eruption of the crisis.We estimate a structural dynamic factor model on a large panel of Euro Area quarterly variables to take into account both the comovement and the heterogeneity in the EA business cycle, and we then simulate the model to investigate the possible existence of asymmetric effects of ECB monetary policy on member states' economies. Data stop before the eruption of the Global Financial Crisis in order to only assess conventional monetary shocks, which are identified by means of sign restrictions. Although the introduction of the euro has changed the monetary transmission mechanism in the individual countries towards a more homogeneous response, we find that differences still remain between North and South Europe in terms of prices and unemployment. These results are the consequence of country-specific structures, rather than of European Central Bank policies.In the second Chapter we use a Bayesian VAR model to analyse the transmission of global and domestic shocks in the euro area, with a particular focus on the drivers of inflation, especiallyin the recent period labeled as low inflation. We identify several shocks by means of sign restrictions, and we account for the role of ECB unconventional monetary policies by using a shadow interest rate. We document that the recent low inflation phase was not entirely attributable to falling oil prices, but also to slack in economic activity and to insufficiently expansionary monetary policy, because of the Zero Lower Bound of interest rates. Interestingly, we show that the launch of the ECB Quantitative Easing turned the monetary stance into more accommodative, preventing deflationary outcomes. In the third Chapter we provide an empirical evaluation of the existence of a "dark side" of monetary policy, i.e. the possibility that credit spreads abruptly rise following a monetary tightening, after being compressed by an extraordinary period of monetary easing. This would create a problematic trade--off for the central bank, as temporary monetary expansions might at once stimulate the economy and sow the seeds of abrupt and costly financial market corrections in the future in terms of risks for financial stability (Stein, 2014).We investigate this possibility using data for the US by exploiting non-linear methods to examine the propagation of monetary shocks through US corporate bond markets. Across different methodologies, we find that the transmission of monetary shocks is mostly symmetric. What is asymmetric is instead the impact of macroeconomic data releases: spreads respond more to bad news. Crucially, these responses anticipate economic slowdowns rather than causing them directly.However, empirical evidence points to the possibility of larger effects of expansionary monetary shocks depending on (i) the type of non-linear estimation technique (ii) the identification of the shock and (iii) the inclusion of unconventional measures in the analysis. Finally, in the fourth Chapter, we ask whether the FED has riskily delayed the exit from its large monetary easing, increasing the probability of a future inflationary burst. We do so by means of medium and larger scale Bayesian VAR, which we use for both structural analysis, i.e. the evaluation of monetary policy shocks, and forecasting, i.e. the running of counterfactuals and scenario analysis.We show that expansionary monetary policy did not trigger a large deviation of inflation from its steady state. Furthermore, the FED monetary stance is totally in line with the concurrent macroeconomic dynamics. Last, our model predicts that US core inflation will lie well below its 2% target in 2017, a finding only recently acknowledged by the FOMC projections.Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
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Mollin, Sandra. "Euro-English assessing variety status." Tübingen Narr, 2005. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=2820944&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm.
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Bongartz, Christian. "Die internationale Bedeutung des Euro /." Duisburg : Mercator School of Management, 2007. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=016436998&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
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Babiak, Jerzy. "Perspektiven des Euro in Polen." Universität Potsdam, 2014. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/texte_eingeschraenkt_welttrends/2014/7002/.
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Polen trat am 1. Mai 2004 der Europäischen Union bei. Artikel 4 der Akte über die Bedingungen des Beitritts bestimmt, dass jeder neue Mitgliedstaat ab dem Tag seines Beitritts als Mitgliedstaat, für den eine Ausnahmeregelung im Sinne des Artikels 139 AEUV1 gilt, an der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion teilnimmt. Das bedeutet für Polen langfristig die Notwendigkeit, die Gemeinschaftswährung Euro zu übernehmen.
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Razanamparany, Haja Mirana. "Optimalité de la Zone Euro?" Thesis, Paris Est, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PEST0054.
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La thèse examine l'optimalité de la Zone Euro une vingtaine d'années après le débat entre la Commission Européenne puis Frankel et Rose (1998) et Krugman (1993). Elle porte principalement sur les membres fondateurs (1980-2010), et s'intéresse secondairement à l'élargissement de la zone monétaire aux PECO. Elle retient un critère transversal d'analyse: la convergence des cycles économiques des pays membres évoqué dès Mundell (1961). L'analyse de la convergence des cycles (corrélation) et des chocs (modèle SVAR) est complétée par celle des déterminants de la première faite à l'aide de modèles à équations simultanées et de modèles dynamiques sur données de panel, ceci afin de répondre à la question de l'endogénéité des critères d'optimalité et ses conditions de réalisation. Enfin, le cas des biens non échangeables mérite d'être étudié à la lumière des caractéristiques de la crise économique de 2007-2008 qui a fortement touché les pays membres en rattrapage. L'analyse de la synchronisation des cycles immobiliers tient compte des caractéristiques particulières du secteur immobilier. La zone montre des divergences qui s'accentuent à nouveau avec la crise actuelle qui met en cause la viabilité de la monnaie unique ainsi que l'optimalité de la zone monétaireWe examine the optimality of the euro zone two decades after the debate between the European Commission and Frankel and Rose (1998) versus Krugman (1993). The study focuses on the founding members between 1980 and 2010, and it also deals with the expansion of the currency area to CEECs. We retain a main convergence criterion through the analysis: the convergence of business cycles in member countries [Mundell (1961)]. The analysis of the convergence of cycles (with their bilateral correlations) and shocks at their origin (using a SVAR model) is completed by the study of its determinants (using simultaneous equations models and dynamic panel models). We then address the issue of endogeneity of the optimality criteria and its conditions of realization. Finally, the case of the real estate sector deserves to be studied in light of the characteristics of the economic crisis of 2007 - 2008 which has greatly affected catching up members. The analysis of the housing cycles takes also into account the specific characteristics of the housing sector. The area displays differences that are growing again with the crisis and calls upon the viability of the Euro Zone and the optimal currency area