Academic literature on the topic 'Ecosystem modelling'
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Journal articles on the topic "Ecosystem modelling"
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Caron-Lormier, Geoffrey, David A. Bohan, Richard Dye, Cathy Hawes, Roger W. Humphry, and Alan Raybould. "Modelling an ecosystem: The example of agro-ecosystems." Ecological Modelling 222, no. 5 (March 2011): 1163–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.11.028.
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Dai, Lingjun, Hongyu Liu, Gang Wang, Cheng Wang, Ziru Guo, Yi Zhou, and Yufeng Li. "Modelling the effects of Spartina alterniflora invasion on the landscape succession of Yancheng coastal natural wetlands, China." PeerJ 8 (November 24, 2020): e10400. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10400.
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Background The Yancheng coastal natural wetlands (YCNR) are well-preserved silty tidal flat wetlands in China. Due to the severe invasion of Spartina alterniflora, the native ecosystem has undergone great changes. The successful invasion of S. alterniflora reduced the biodiversity of the YCNR, changed the structure and function of the local ecosystem, and eventually led to the degradation of the ecosystem and the loss of ecosystem function and service. Fully understanding the impact of an alien species invasion on YCNR succession is an important prerequisite for protecting and restoring the wetlands. Methods In this study, remote sensing, GIS technology, and a cellular-automaton Markov model were used to simulate the natural succession process of native ecosystems without being affected by alien species. By comparing the landscape of the YCNR with the model simulation results, we gained a better understanding of how alien species affect native landscape-scale ecosystems. Results During the natural succession of the coastal native wetland ecosystem in the YCNR, the pioneer species S. alterniflora occupied the mudflats and expanded seaward. The whole area expanded and moved seaward with an average annual movement of 58.23 m. Phragmites australis seemed to dominate the competition with S. salsa communities, and the area gradually expanded with an average annual movement of 39.89 m. The invasion of S. alterniflora changed the native ecosystem’s spatial succession process, causing the S. salsa ecosystem to be stressed by ecosystems on the side of the sea (S. alterniflora) and that of land (P. australis). The area of the seaward-expanding P. australis ecosystem has been declining. Under a reasonable protected area policy, human activities have enhanced the succession rate of the P. australis ecosystem and have had a small impact on the ecological spatial succession of S. salsa and S. alterniflora.
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De Laender, F., K. A. C. De Schamphelaere, C. R. Janssen, and P. A. Vanrolleghem. "An ecosystem modelling approach for deriving water quality criteria." Water Science and Technology 56, no. 6 (September 1, 2007): 19–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2007.582.
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Ecological effects of chemicals on ecosystems are the result of direct effects of the chemical, determined in single-species toxicity testing, and indirect effects due to ecological interactions between species. Current experimental methods to account for such interactions are expensive. Hence, mathematical models of ecosystems have been proposed as an alternative. The use of these models often requires extensive calibration, which hampers their use as a general tool in ecological effect assessments. Here we present a novel ecosystem modelling approach which assesses effects of chemicals on ecosystems by integrating single-species toxicity test results and ecological interactions, without the need for calibration on case-specific data. The methodology is validated by comparing predicted ecological effects of copper in a freshwater planktonic ecosystem with an experimental ecosystem data set. Two main effects reflected by this data set (a decrease of cladocerans and an increase of small phytoplankton) which were unpredictable from single-species toxicity test results alone, were predicted accurately by the developed model. Effects on populations which don't interact directly with other populations, were predicted equally well by single-species toxicity test results as by the ecosystem model. The small amount of required data and the high predictive capacity can make this ecosystem modelling approach an efficient tool in water quality criteria derivation for chemicals.
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Duku, C., H. Rathjens, S. J. Zwart, and L. Hein. "Towards ecosystem accounting: a comprehensive approach to modelling multiple hydrological ecosystem services." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 10 (October 30, 2015): 4377–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4377-2015.
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Abstract. Ecosystem accounting is an emerging field that aims to provide a consistent approach to analysing environment–economy interactions. One of the specific features of ecosystem accounting is the distinction between the capacity and the flow of ecosystem services. Ecohydrological modelling to support ecosystem accounting requires considering among others physical and mathematical representation of ecohydrological processes, spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystem, temporal resolution, and required model accuracy. This study examines how a spatially explicit ecohydrological model can be used to analyse multiple hydrological ecosystem services in line with the ecosystem accounting framework. We use the Upper Ouémé watershed in Benin as a test case to demonstrate our approach. The Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT), which has been configured with a grid-based landscape discretization and further enhanced to simulate water flow across the discretized landscape units, is used to simulate the ecohydrology of the Upper Ouémé watershed. Indicators consistent with the ecosystem accounting framework are used to map and quantify the capacities and the flows of multiple hydrological ecosystem services based on the model outputs. Biophysical ecosystem accounts are subsequently set up based on the spatial estimates of hydrological ecosystem services. In addition, we conduct trend analysis statistical tests on biophysical ecosystem accounts to identify trends in changes in the capacity of the watershed ecosystems to provide service flows. We show that the integration of hydrological ecosystem services into an ecosystem accounting framework provides relevant information on ecosystems and hydrological ecosystem services at appropriate scales suitable for decision-making.
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Wimmler, Marie-Christin, Jasper Bathmann, Ronny Peters, Jiang Jiang, Marc Walther, Catherine E. Lovelock, and Uta Berger. "Plant–soil feedbacks in mangrove ecosystems: establishing links between empirical and modelling studies." Trees 35, no. 5 (July 22, 2021): 1423–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00468-021-02182-z.
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Abstract Key message Plant–soil feedbacks in mangrove ecosystems are important for ecosystem resilience and can be investigated by establishing links between empirical and modelling studies. Abstract Plant–soil feedbacks are important as they provide valuable insights into ecosystem dynamics and ecosystems stability and resilience against multiple stressors and disturbances, including global climate change. In mangroves, plant–soil feedbacks are important for ecosystem resilience in the face of sea level rise, carbon sequestration, and to support successful ecosystem restoration. Despite the recognition of the importance of plant–soil feedbacks in mangroves, there is limited empirical data available. We reviewed empirical studies from mangrove ecosystems and evaluate numerical models addressing plant–soil feedbacks. The empirical evidence suggests that plant–soil feedbacks strongly influence ecological processes (e.g. seedling recruitment and soil elevation change) and forest structure in mangrove ecosystems. Numerical models, which successfully describe plant–soil feedbacks in mangrove and other ecosystems, can be used in future empirical studies to test mechanistic understanding and project outcomes of environmental change. Moreover, the combination of both, modelling and empirical approaches, can improve mechanistic understanding of plant–soil feedbacks and thereby ecosystem dynamics in mangrove ecosystems. This combination will help to support sustainable coastal management and conservation.
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Bunce, James A. "Approaches to Ecosystem Modelling." Ecology 80, no. 3 (April 1999): 1099. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(1999)080[1099:atem]2.0.co;2.
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Silvert, William. "Object-oriented ecosystem modelling." Ecological Modelling 68, no. 1-2 (July 1993): 91–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(93)90110-e.
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Duku, C., H. Rathjens, S. J. Zwart, and L. Hein. "Towards ecosystem accounting: a comprehensive approach to modelling multiple hydrological ecosystem services." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 3 (March 30, 2015): 3477–526. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-3477-2015.
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Abstract. Ecosystem accounting is an emerging field that aims to provide a consistent approach to analysing environment-economy interactions. In spite of the progress made in mapping and quantifying hydrological ecosystem services, several key issues must be addressed if ecohydrological modelling approaches are to be aligned with ecosystem accounting. They include modelling hydrological ecosystem services with adequate spatiotemporal detail and accuracy at aggregated scales to support ecosystem accounting, distinguishing between service capacity and service flow, and linking ecohydrological processes to the supply of dependent hydrological ecosystem services. We present a spatially explicit approach, which is consistent with ecosystem accounting, for mapping and quantifying service capacity and service flow of multiple hydrological ecosystem services. A grid-based setup of a modified Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT), SWAT Landscape, is first used to simulate the watershed ecohydrology. Model outputs are then post-processed to map and quantify hydrological ecosystem services and to set up biophysical ecosystem accounts. Trend analysis statistical tests are conducted on service capacity accounts to track changes in the potential to provide service flows. Ecohydrological modelling to support ecosystem accounting requires appropriate decisions regarding model process inclusion, physical and mathematical representation, spatial heterogeneity, temporal resolution, and model accuracy. We demonstrate this approach in the Upper Ouémé watershed in Benin. Our analyses show that integrating hydrological ecosystem services in an ecosystem accounting framework provides relevant information on ecosystems and hydrological ecosystem services at appropriate scales suitable for decision-making. Our analyses further identify priority areas important for maintaining hydrological ecosystem services as well as trends in hydrological ecosystem services supply over time.
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Wilson, Alan G. "Ecological and Urban Systems Models: Some Explorations of Similarities in the Context of Complexity Theory." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 38, no. 4 (April 2006): 633–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a37102.
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There are similarities of form between urban system models and models of ecosystems. These are systematically explored and a general model formulation which embraces both kinds of model is presented. Some insights are gained by using ideas from ecosystem modelling in urban modelling. The biggest gains, however, are for ecosystem modelling. It is demonstrated that urban techniques can be used for incorporating spatial competition effects into such models in novel ways, and that the complex dynamics can then be effectively interpreted. Urban systems have contributed significantly to complexity theory in the past—because they are complicated enough to be interesting but simple enough to be solvable. These insights can now be transferred to complex (spatial) ecosystems. The possibility of joint eco-urban models is explored.
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Zariņš, Mārcis, Andra Blumberga, Māris Klaviņš, and Viesturs Melecis. "Dynamic Modeling for Environmental Processes: A Case Study of Lake Engure." Proceedings of the Latvian Academy of Sciences. Section B. Natural, Exact, and Applied Sciences. 68, no. 1-2 (April 1, 2014): 20–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/prolas-2014-0002.
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Abstract This focus of the study was on system dynamic models that could be useful for modelling environmental processes in Lake Engure. The paper considers the system dynamic model development principles, the most important elements and structure. The aim of the study was to describe possible methods of ecosystem process modelling that allow to represent the actual state of ecosystems and provide opportunities to predict further processes. The methods of ecosystem modelling considered in the paper reveal interactive factors of anthropogenic and environmental processes that influence changes in ecosystems. System dynamic models indicate not only interactions between various factors in the environment but also the most important driving forces. These models are based on flowchart and algorithm systems, which represent changes using mathematical functions in a graphic or tabular form. In the case study of Lake Engure, connections between factors that influence ecosystems in the study area were identified. Specialised software, PowerSim Studio Academic 9.0, was used for modelling. The model consists of qualitative and multifactor data of Lake Engure ecosystems, such as water chemical, physical and hydrological parameters, biological, ornithological and other data collected in the study area. Development of this modelling method will make it possible to evaluate the impact of various processes on biological diversity changes in the study area and to identify the most important problems. Furthermore, this method could improve environmental management practice in the surrounding municipalities, and it will also be possible to make similar models of ecosystem quality in other regions.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Ecosystem modelling"
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Bennett, Victoria Jane. "Computer modelling the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2003. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/1553/.
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At present, the viability of biodiversity in most of the remaining natural areas of the world is primarily threatened by human encroachment. This has led to an increased demand for active conservation. However, in order to devise and implement appropriate management strategies for a particular area, a specific understanding of ecosystem function is required. Creating a simulation model using available research data may provide a way to achieve this. In this thesis, the construction of a comprehensive model delineating the dynamics of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem is initiated. Using the abundance of research data collected on this ecosystem over the last 40 years, the processes involved in setting-up such a model are investigated. First, a basic foundation, accommodating the spatial and temporal variation in climate and physiography across the Serengeti region, is established. The relationship between grass growth and rainfall is then incorporated, along with the mechanisms concerned with limiting grass availability, the subsequent survival and recruitment of grazing herbivores and finally, the influence of predation upon those herbivores. The model, even in these early stages of development, adequately depicted dynamics equivalent to those in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, indicating that the methods used were appropriate. It was found that grass availability was not the primary factor influencing the overall dynamics of grazing herbivores within the ecosystem, and only migratory wildebeest appeared to be strongly influenced by this factor throughout the time-scale of the model. It was suggested that other factors were responsible for regulating the majority of herbivore populations. By identifying where further research is required to increase our understanding of this particular ecosystem's function, the model demonstrates its effectiveness as an analytical tool. For the long-term conservation of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem and other similar ecosystems, this reveals that the construction of such models is certainly beneficial, if not essential.
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Cropp, Roger Allan, and R. Cropp@griffith edu au. "A Biogeochemical Modelling Analysis of the Potential For Marine Ecosystems to Regulate Climate By the Production of Dimethylsulphide." Griffith University. Australian School of Environmental Studies, 2003. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20030703.101310.
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The potential for life to control its environment was first suggested by Lovelock (1972). Charlson et al (1987) proposed a role for marine planktonic ecosystems in global climate regulation via the production and ventilation to the atmosphere of dimethylsulphide (DMS), a by-product of phytoplankton metabolism. Once in the atmosphere DMS contributes to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei, and increases the amount and brightness of cloud. This affects the albedo of the planet, reflecting more incident sunlight back into space, and cooling the earth. In common with many other 'hypotheses' regarding complex adaptive systems, the hypothesis proposed by Charlson et al (1987) is not experimentally testable. The production and ventilation to the atmosphere of DMS is the result of complex interactions between biological, chemical and physical processes. Consequently, increasing use is being made of mathematical models that simulate these processes to advance understanding of it (Archer et al. 2002). This study examines one of the fundamental mechanisms proposed by the Charlson et al (1987) hypothesis, that increasing global temperatures will lead to increased ventilation of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere. The study develops one-dimensional biogeochemical models of DMS production by upper ocean ecosystems, based on the model proposed by Gabric et al. (1993b). The models are examined to elucidate their fundamental mathematical properties, and are subjected to sensitivity analysis to identify important processes and parameters. These investigations identify a simpler model that can reproduce the predictions of the Gabric et al. (1993b) model. Predictions derived from model simulations forced by climatologies of measured physical data are compared to a global database of measurements of sea surface DMS concentrations, and to observed depth profiles of DMS in the upper ocean. These comparisons confirm that all models are in good qualitative agreement with measured data. The fifteen global climate prediction models currently in use around the globe all predict substantial warming effects from the ventilation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. A simplified DMS model is calibrated to climatologies of Antarctic chlorophyll and DMS data and reproduces the data with great precision. The calibrated model is applied in global warming scenarios to 'test' the efficacy of the mechanism proposed by the Charlson et al (1987) hypothesis. This simulation provides evidence that the response predicted by the hypothesis is indeed feasible, and that substantial increases (up to 45%) in the ventilation of DMS to the atmosphere could be possible in some circumstances. The results of the modelling study provide impetus for further examination of field data. If couplings between marine biota and atmosphere are feasible, then they may be operating contemporarily, and may be detectable. Atmospheric DMS is oxidised to form aerosols (Miller et al. 2002) that influence the aerosol optical depth of the atmosphere. Archives of remote sensed ocean chlorophyll a concentration and aerosol optical depth are examined for evidence of the biologically mediated couplings. A clear coupling between aeolian dust and marine phytoplankton is evident from this analysis, suggesting that the deposition of dust from the atmosphere is a major factor controlling phytoplankton growth in many parts of the ocean. A second coupling between marine phytoplankton and atmospheric aerosols is also detected. This coupling is apparently not related to dust and is symmetrical about the equator, despite the substantial differences in the atmospheres and oceans of each hemisphere. It is speculated that this coupling may reflect the influence of the ventilation of DMS produced by marine phytoplankton on the atmosphere. This thesis provides new evidence supporting the important role of marine ecosystems in global climate regulation by the production of DMS. This evidence is principally obtained from a biogeochemical modelling approach, but is supported by analyses of empirical data. The concordance of results obtained from different approaches suggests that the contribution of marine ecosystems to global climate regulation is real, important and currently active.
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Cropp, Roger Allan. "A Biogeochemical Modelling Analysis of the Potential For Marine Ecosystems to Regulate Climate By the Production of Dimethylsulphide." Thesis, Griffith University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367734.
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The potential for life to control its environment was first suggested by Lovelock (1972). Charlson et al (1987) proposed a role for marine planktonic ecosystems in global climate regulation via the production and ventilation to the atmosphere of dimethylsulphide (DMS), a by-product of phytoplankton metabolism. Once in the atmosphere DMS contributes to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei, and increases the amount and brightness of cloud. This affects the albedo of the planet, reflecting more incident sunlight back into space, and cooling the earth. In common with many other 'hypotheses' regarding complex adaptive systems, the hypothesis proposed by Charlson et al (1987) is not experimentally testable. The production and ventilation to the atmosphere of DMS is the result of complex interactions between biological, chemical and physical processes. Consequently, increasing use is being made of mathematical models that simulate these processes to advance understanding of it (Archer et al. 2002). This study examines one of the fundamental mechanisms proposed by the Charlson et al (1987) hypothesis, that increasing global temperatures will lead to increased ventilation of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere. The study develops one-dimensional biogeochemical models of DMS production by upper ocean ecosystems, based on the model proposed by Gabric et al. (1993b). The models are examined to elucidate their fundamental mathematical properties, and are subjected to sensitivity analysis to identify important processes and parameters. These investigations identify a simpler model that can reproduce the predictions of the Gabric et al. (1993b) model. Predictions derived from model simulations forced by climatologies of measured physical data are compared to a global database of measurements of sea surface DMS concentrations, and to observed depth profiles of DMS in the upper ocean. These comparisons confirm that all models are in good qualitative agreement with measured data. The fifteen global climate prediction models currently in use around the globe all predict substantial warming effects from the ventilation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. A simplified DMS model is calibrated to climatologies of Antarctic chlorophyll and DMS data and reproduces the data with great precision. The calibrated model is applied in global warming scenarios to 'test' the efficacy of the mechanism proposed by the Charlson et al (1987) hypothesis. This simulation provides evidence that the response predicted by the hypothesis is indeed feasible, and that substantial increases (up to 45%) in the ventilation of DMS to the atmosphere could be possible in some circumstances. The results of the modelling study provide impetus for further examination of field data. If couplings between marine biota and atmosphere are feasible, then they may be operating contemporarily, and may be detectable. Atmospheric DMS is oxidised to form aerosols (Miller et al. 2002) that influence the aerosol optical depth of the atmosphere. Archives of remote sensed ocean chlorophyll a concentration and aerosol optical depth are examined for evidence of the biologically mediated couplings. A clear coupling between aeolian dust and marine phytoplankton is evident from this analysis, suggesting that the deposition of dust from the atmosphere is a major factor controlling phytoplankton growth in many parts of the ocean. A second coupling between marine phytoplankton and atmospheric aerosols is also detected. This coupling is apparently not related to dust and is symmetrical about the equator, despite the substantial differences in the atmospheres and oceans of each hemisphere. It is speculated that this coupling may reflect the influence of the ventilation of DMS produced by marine phytoplankton on the atmosphere. This thesis provides new evidence supporting the important role of marine ecosystems in global climate regulation by the production of DMS. This evidence is principally obtained from a biogeochemical modelling approach, but is supported by analyses of empirical data. The concordance of results obtained from different approaches suggests that the contribution of marine ecosystems to global climate regulation is real, important and currently active.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Australian School of Environmental Studies
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Ogutu, Booker. "Modelling terrestrial ecosystem productivity using remote sensing data." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2012. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/341720/.
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Production efficiency models (PEMs) have been developed to aid with the estimation of terrestrial ecosystems productivity where large spatial scales make direct measurement impractical. One of the key datasets used in these models is the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation absorbed by vegetation (FAPAR). FAPAR is the single variable that represents vegetation function and structure in these models and hence its accurate estimation is essential. This thesis focused on improving the estimation of FAPAR and developing a new PEM model that utilises the improved FAPAR data. Foremost, the accuracy of operational LAI/FAPAR products (i.e. MGVI, MODIS LAI/FAPAR, CYCLOPES LAI/FAPAR, GLOBCARBON LAI/FAPAR, and NN-MERIS LAI TOC algorithm) over a deciduous broadleaf forest was investigated. This analysis showed that the products varied in their prediction of in-situ FAPAR/LAI measurements mainly due to differences in their definition and derivation procedures. The performance of three PEMs (i.e. Carnegie-CASA, C-Fix and MOD17GPP) in simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) across various biomes was then analysed. It was shown that structural differences in these models influenced their accuracy. Next, the influence of two FAPAR products (MODIS and CYCLOPES) on ecosystem productivity modelling was analysed. Both products were found to result in overestimation of in-situ GPP measurements. This was attributed to the lack of correction for PAR absorbed by the non-photosynthetic components of the canopy by the two products. Only PAR absorbed by chlorophyll in the leaves (FAPAR chlorophyll) is used in photosynthesis and hence it was hypothesised that deriving and using this variable would improve GPP predictions. Therefore, various components of FAPAR (i.e. FAPAR canopy, FAPAR leaf and FAPAR chlorophyll) were estimated using data from a radiative transfer model (PROSAIL-2).The FAPAR components were then related to two sets of vegetation indices (i.e. broad-band: NDVI and EVI, and red-edge: MTCI and CIred-edge). The red-edge based indices were found to be more linearly related to FAPAR chlorophyll than the broad-band indices. These findings were also supported by data from two flux tower sites, where the FAPAR chlorophyll was estimated through inversion of net ecosystem exchange data and was found to be better related to a red-edge based index (i.e. MTCI).Based on these findings a new PEM (i.e. MTCIGPP) was developed to (i) use the MTCI as a surrogate of FAPAR chlorophyll and (ii) incorporate distinct quantum yield terms between the two key plant photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4) rather than using species-specific light use efficiency. The GPP predictions from the MTCIGPP model had strong relationship with the in-situ GPP measurements. Furthermore, GPP from the MTCIGPP model were comparable to the MOD17GPP product and better in some biomes (e.g. croplands). The MTCIGPP model is simple and easy to implement, yet provides a reliable measure of terrestrial GPP and has the potential to estimate global terrestrial carbon flux.
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Vaughan, Louise. "Trophic modelling of the Lough Neagh ecosystem, Northern Ireland." Thesis, University of Ulster, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.554276.
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Lough Neagh is the largest freshwater lake in the British Isles. The lough is an important multi-purpose resource for the province of Northern Ireland. Previous research on the lough was combined with data from this study to analyse trophic components of the Lough Neagh ecosystem. Analysis of the biomass and abundance of taxonomic groups indicated that size-structuring was important within the system. Macro-invertebrates showed strong evidence of size-structuring over a depth gradient with biomass, abundance and body-size all increasing with depth. Stable isotope analysis showed the lough to be a relatively simple system with strong bases in planktivory and detritivory. It also highlighted the need for further research into other possible base sources within the lake food web. A mass balance trophic model was constructed for the system using the user friendly software Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE). Twenty functional groups were used in the analysis and EwE was used to assess the trophic relationship, energy flow and interactions between them. The model showed the under-utilisation of phytoplankton and detritus by consumers in the system and hence the low transfer efficiency of 6.4% for the overall system. Summary statistics sensu Odum showed that the lough is its early stages of development and consequently may be prone to perturbations particularly anthropogenic events. The model allowed for key gaps in the present research on Lough Neagh to be pinpointed. It is recommended that any further studies on the Lough Neagh ecosystem should include components on the waterfowl populations surrounding the lough as well as incorporating a bacterial element into any future models. The Ecosim component to EwE was investigated as a management tool for the lake system. The Ecosim component was capable of predicting general trends but was not recommended for use as a sole management tool for the ecosystem but rather as part of an integrated management system.
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Ferguson, Claire Ann. "Univariate and multivariate statistical methodologies for lake ecosystem modelling." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.437930.
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Mori, Mitsuyo. "Modelling the krill-predator dynamics of the Antarctic ecosystem." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/8734.
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 281-303).The main objective of this thesis is to model the krill-predator dynamics of the Antarctic ecosystem so as to determine whether predator-prey interactions alone can broadly explain observed population trends of the species considered in the model without any appeal to systematic effects possibly caused by environmental change. The history of human harvesting in the Antarctic is summarized briefly, and the central role played by krill is emphasized. The background to the hypothesis of a krill surplus in the mid 20th Century is described, and the information, particularly regarding population trends, that has become available since the postulate was first advanced is discussed. By reviewing the consumption and abundance estimates for various species in the Antarctic, it is evident that among the baleen whales, blue, fin, humpback and minke whales feed mainly on krill, and could collectively be consuming up to 120 million tons of krill in this region for each of the years around 1990. Of the seals, the Antarctic fur seals and crab-eater seals also feed mainly on krill, and these two species could be consuming up to 70 million tons of krill each year. Consumption estimates for other krill predators (birds, fish and cephalopods) are relatively poorly determined by comparison. Of these four baleen whale species, minke whales currently make the greatest impact on krill due to their large number at present compared to the other larger whale populations which are still depleted. Trend information suggests that the large baleen whales that were heavily depleted during the commercial whaling period are now recovering at rates in the vicinity of 10% per year, but there are some indications of a recent decrease in minke whale numbers. Thus, the consumption of krill by these large baleen whales has probably been increasing over recent years, though decreasing for minke whales. Updated and refined catch-at-age analyses of minke whales for the International Whaling Commission (IWC) Management Areas IV and V suggest an increase in abundance of this species in the middle decades of the 20th Century to peak at about 1970, followed by a decline for the next three decades. Fitting the recruitment time trend obtained from these analyses to a stock-recruitment model suggests that minke whale carrying capacity first increased from about 1940 to 1960 followed by a 60% decrease from the 1960s to the present. General trends in the biological parameters of this species are consistent with such a decline. A predator-prey interaction model is developed including krill, four baleen whale (blue, fin, humpback and minke) and two seal (Antarctic fur and crab-eater) species. The model commences in 1780 (the onset of fur seal harvests) and distinguishes the Atlantic/Indian and Pacific sectors in view of the much larger past harvests in the former. A reference case and six sensitivities are fit to available data on predator abundances and trends, and the plausibility of the results and the assumptions on which they are based is discussed, together with suggested areas for future investigation. Amongst the key inferences of the study are that: i) species interaction effects alone can explain observed predator abundance trends, though not without some difficulty; ii) it is necessary to consider other species in addition to baleen whales and krill to explain observed trends, with crab-eater seals seemingly playing an important role and constituting a particular priority for improved abundance and trend information; iii the Atlantic/Indian region shows major changes in species abundances, in contrast to the Pacific which is much more stable; iv) baleen whales have to be able to achieve relatively high growth rates to explain observed trends; v) species interaction effects impact the dynamics of these predators in ways that differ from what might be anticipated in a conventional single-species harvesting context, and they need to be better understood and taken into account in management decisions, and vi) Laws' (1977) estimate of some 150 million tons for the krill surplus may be appreciably too high as a result of his calculations omitting consideration of density dependent effects in feeding rates. . A priority for future work is to obtain improved estimates of the amount of krill consumed by other species, such as birds, cephalopods and fish as well as to obtain consensus on current abundance estimates for crab-eater seals and baleen whales (especially minke whales and also the associated abundance trend). Once such information is improved, more thorough sensitivity tests to the assumptions of the model and uncertainties in the abundance estimates of the species considered need to be explored. With such further development, it is hoped that such a model may ultimately assist in providing scientific advice for appropriate sustainable harvesting strategies for the Antarctic marine ecosystem taking species interactions into account, as this is a matter of key importance for the IWC and for the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR).
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Pang, Xi. "Trade-off analysis of forest ecosystem services – A modelling approach." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-216432.
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Forest is a resource that is increasingly utilized for multiple purposes. The balance between energy demands and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services is crucial. The aim of this project was to increase the knowledge on and to develop methods and tools for trade-offs and synergies analysis among forest ecosystem services based on different forest management policies. Paper I provides an overview of existing models for integrated energy-environment assessment. A literature review was conducted on assessment models and their ability to integrate energy with environmental aspects. Missing environmental aspects concern land use, landscapes and biodiversity. In Paper II a modelling framework was set up to link a landscape simulator with a habitat network model for integrated assessment of bioenergy feedstock and biodiversity related impacts in Kronoberg County. In Paper III we continued with the same management scenarios, while the analysis was expanded to five ecosystem services by developing the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool: industrial wood, bioenergy, forest carbon stock, recreation areas and habitat networks. In Paper IV we present two heuristic methods for spatial optimization – simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) – to find optimal solutions for allocating harvest activities, in order to minimize the impacts on habitat networks. In Paper V, as response to the findings in Paper I, we linked the energy model MESSAGE with our LEcA tool for forest bioenergy demand assessment while applying environmental and transport restrictions, in a study of Lithuania. We found trade-offs between industrial wood production and bioenergy on one side, and recreation values, biodiversity, and to some extent carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool integrated forest simulation and management with assessment of ecosystem services, which is promising for integrated sustainability assessment of forest management policies.QC 20171023
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Limer, Laura Michelle Clare. "Biodiversity and ecosystem function : modelling soil biota and carbon cycling." Thesis, University of York, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.442353.
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Mohamad, Nordin Bin Haji. "Optimal management of a renewable resource in a multispecies ecosystem." Thesis, City University London, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.255341.
Full textBooks on the topic "Ecosystem modelling"
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G, Chertov O., Komarov A. S, Karev Georgy P, and European Forest Institute, eds. Modern approaches in forest ecosystem modelling. Leiden: Brill, 1999.
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M, Ceulemans R. J., ed. Forest ecosystem modelling, upscaling and remote sensing. The Hague: SPB Academic Pub., 1999.
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Liang, Youjia, Lijun Liu, and Jiejun Huang. Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services and Land-Use Change. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9125-5.
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A. P. W. de Wit. Integrated modelling of renewable natural resources: Forest ecosystem management. Brussels: FAST Programme, 1987.
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H, Boyd, and Canadian Wildlife Service, eds. Population modelling and management of snow geese. Ottawa: Canadian Wildlife Service, 2000.
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R, Murthy C., Sinha P. C, and Rao Y. R. Dr, eds. Modelling and monitoring of coastal marine processes. New Delhi: Capital Pub. Co., 2008.
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Barlow, N. D. Predicting the impact and control of stoats: A review of modelling approaches. Wellington, N.Z: Dept. of Conservation, 2002.
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Dasgupta, Rajarshi, Shizuka Hashimoto, and Osamu Saito, eds. Assessing, Mapping and Modelling of Mangrove Ecosystem Services in the Asia-Pacific Region. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2738-6.
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Lundquist, Carolyn Jean. Collation of data for ecosystem modelling of Te Tapuwae o Rongokako Marine Reserve. Wellington, N.Z: Science & Technical Publishing, Dept of Conservation, 2008.
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S, Mohamed K., and Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute., eds. Trophic modelling of the Arabian Sea ecosystem off Karnataka and simulation of fishery yields. Cochin: Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, 2008.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Ecosystem modelling"
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Kienast, Felix, and Julian Helfenstein. "Modelling Ecosystem Services." In Routledge Handbook of Ecosystem Services, 144–56. New York, NY : Routledge, 2016.: Routledge, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315775302-14.
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Hamann, Maike, Justin A. Johnson, Tomas Chaigneau, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Lisa Mandle, and Jesse T. Rieb. "Ecosystem service modelling." In The Routledge Handbook of Research Methods for Social-Ecological Systems, 426–39. London: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003021339-37.
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Sauvant, D. "Rumen mathematical modelling." In The Rumen Microbial Ecosystem, 685–708. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1453-7_16.
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Jopp, Fred, and Donald L. DeAngelis. "Modelling the Everglades Ecosystem." In Modelling Complex Ecological Dynamics, 291–300. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05029-9_21.
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Davydchuk, V. "Ecosystem GIS-Modelling in Ecotoxicology." In Equidosimetry — Ecological Standardization and Equidosimetry for Radioecology and Environmental Ecology, 111–18. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3650-7_14.
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Kabashkin, Igor. "Risk Modelling of Blockchain Ecosystem." In Network and System Security, 59–70. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64701-2_5.
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Pantulu, V. R. "Ecosystem Modelling of a River Basin." In The GeoJournal Library, 31–40. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-5458-8_4.
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Iwasa, Y., K. Sato, and M. Kakita. "Modelling Biodiversity: Latitudinal Gradient of Forest Species Diversity." In Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function, 433–51. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58001-7_20.
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Guichard, Frederic, and Justin Marleau. "Introduction: General Ecosystem Dynamics." In Lecture Notes on Mathematical Modelling in the Life Sciences, 1–10. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83454-8_1.
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Guichard, Frederic, and Justin Marleau. "Nonlinear Meta-Ecosystem Dynamics." In Lecture Notes on Mathematical Modelling in the Life Sciences, 29–54. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83454-8_3.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Ecosystem modelling"
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Xu, Linyu, Zhifeng Yang, and Wei Li. "Modelling the Carrying Capacity of Urban Ecosystem." In 2008 2nd International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering. IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icbbe.2008.597.
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HOLT, JASON, ROGER PROCTOR, MIKE ASHWORTH, ICARUS ALLEN, and JERRY BLACKFORD. "EDDY RESOLVED ECOSYSTEM MODELLING IN THE IRISH SEA." In Proceedings of the Tenth ECMWF Workshop on the Use of High Performance Computers in Meteorology. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812704832_0020.
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ASHWORTH, M., R. PROCTOR, J. T. HOLT, J. I. ALLEN, and J. C. BLACKFORD. "COUPLED MARINE ECOSYSTEM MODELLING ON HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTERS." In Proceedings of the Ninth ECMWF Workshop on the Use of High Performance Computing in Meteorology. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812799685_0015.
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Jaekel, Frank-Walter, Martin Zelm, and David Chen. "Service Modelling Language Applied for Hyper Connected Ecosystem." In IFAC/IFIP International Workshop on Enterprise Integration, Interoperability and Networking. SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0010726300003062.
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"The population dynamics of ecosystem engineers and habitat modification." In 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.f3.watt2.
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"Consistency, competitive exclusion and coexistence in complex plankton ecosystem models." In 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2011.e9.cropp.
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"TERN/AusCover - Remote sensing data management for terrestrial ecosystem research." In 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2011.h4.paget.
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McNeillis, P. "Taming the ecosystem - the role of UML in global standardisation." In IEE Seminar on Process Modelling Using UML. IEE, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/ic:20060649.
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"Detecting ecosystem resilience to drought across 119 flux tower stations." In 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.shao343.
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Proctor, Roger, Jason T. Holt, Thomas R. Anderson, Boris A. Kelly-Gerreyn, Jeremy Blackford, and Francis Gilbert. "Towards 3-D Ecosystem Modelling of the Irish Sea." In Seventh International Conference on Estuarine and Coastal Modeling. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40628(268)59.
Full textReports on the topic "Ecosystem modelling"
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Harris, J. R., D. Lemkow, D. F. Wright, and H. Falck. Modelling mineral potential for the Greater Nahanni Ecosystem using GIS-based analytical methods. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/224561.
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Subramanian, Suneetha M., and Maiko Nishi. Nature as Culture: Conceptualizing What It Implies and Potential Ways to Capture the Paradigm in Scenario Building Exercises. United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, December 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.53326/ivbp2438.
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The recent Values Assessment conducted by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) highlights the impact of different worldviews on people's relationship with nature. This paper summarizes the findings from a literature review that examined nature-culture interconnections and how they play out in outcomes related to conservation and human well-being. It seeks to highlight the various ways in which Nature as Culture is conceptualized and further, generalized. It also aims to identify a short set of promising indicators that could be used for scenario modelling for nature futures work and identify potential areas of research to explore further in this field to ensure that the concept is more robustly embedded in plans to operationalize policy goals on sustainability, including biodiversity conservation. The paper emphasizes the need for further research in this area, calling for methods that incorporate a diverse range of resources across ecosystems, species types and national borders. It highlights ground-truthing and primary data collection as essential components in understanding intrinsic, instrumental and relational values for fostering sustainable practices.
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Perdigão, Rui A. P. Strengthening Multi-Hazard Resilience with Quantum Aerospace Systems Intelligence. Synergistic Manifolds, January 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.46337/240301.
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The present work further enhances and deploys our Quantum Aerospace Systems Intelligence technologies (DOI: 10.46337/quasi.230901) onto Multi-Hazard risk assessment and action, from sensing and prediction to modelling, decision support and active response, towards strengthening its fundamental knowledge, awareness and resilience in the face of multi-domain challenges. Moreover, it introduces our updated post-quantum aerospace engineering ecosystem for empowering active system dynamic capabilities to mitigate or even counter multi-hazard threats from space, leveraging our high energy technological physics solutions acting across coevolutionary space-times. These developments are further articulated with our latest Synergistic Nonlinear Quantum Wave Intelligence Networks suite of technologies (DOI: 10.46337/240118), vastly extending the operational capabilities of novel quantum and post-quantum systems to critically adverse thermodynamic conditions e.g. those pertaining situational action across real-world environmental and security theaters of operation.
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Verburg, Peter H., Žiga Malek, Sean P. Goodwin, and Cecilia Zagaria. The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE. Inter-American Development Bank, September 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003625.
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The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modeling of competition between land use types. Being one of the most widely used spatial land use models, CLUE has been applied all over the world on different scales. In this document, we demonstrate how the model can be used to develop a multi-regional application. This means, that instead of developing numerous individual models, the user only prepares one CLUE model application, which then allocates land use change across different regions. This facilitates integration with the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform for subnational assessments and increases the efficiency of the IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEMESM) workflow. Multi-regional modelling is particularly useful in larger and diverse countries, where we can expect different spatial distributions in land use changes in different regions: regions of different levels of achieved socio-economic development, regions with different topographies (flat vs. mountainous), or different climatic regions (dry vs humid) within a same country. Accounting for such regional differences also facilitates developing ecosystem services models that consider region specific biophysical characteristics. This manual, and the data that is provided with it, demonstrates multi-regional land use change modeling using the country of Colombia as an example. The user will learn how to prepare the data for the model application, and how the multi-regional run differs from a single-region simulation.
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Taucher, Jan, and Markus Schartau. Report on parameterizing seasonal response patterns in primary- and net community production to ocean alkalinization. OceanNETs, November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/oceannets_d5.2.
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We applied a 1-D plankton ecosystem-biogeochemical model to assess the impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) on seasonal changes in biogeochemistry and plankton dynamics. Depending on deployment scenarios, OAE should theoretically have variable effects on pH and seawater pCO2, which might in turn affect (a) plankton growth conditions and (b) the efficiency of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via OAE. Thus, a major focus of our work is how different magnitudes and temporal frequencies of OAE might affect seasonal response patterns of net primary productivity (NPP), ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling. With our study we aimed at identifying a parameterization of how magnitude and frequency of OAE affect net growth rates, so that these effects could be employed for Earth System Modell applications. So far we learned that a meaningful response parameterization has to resolve positive and negative anomalies that covary with temporal shifts. As to the intricacy of the response patterns, the derivation of such parameterization is work in progress. However, our study readily provides valuable insights to how OAE can alter plankton dynamics and biogeochemistry. Our modelling study first focuses at a local site where time series data are available (European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands ESTOC), including measurements of pH, concentrations of total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), chlorophyll-a and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). These observational data were made available by Andres Cianca (personal communication, PLOCAN, Spain), Melchor Gonzalez and Magdalena Santana Casiano (personal communication, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria). The choice of this location was underpinned by the fact that the first OAE mesocosm experiment was conducted on the Canary Island Gran Canaria, which will facilitate synthesizing our modelling approach with experimental findings. For our simulations at the ESTOC site in the Subtropical North Atlantic we found distinct, non-linear responses of NPP to different temporal modes of alkalinity deployment. In particular, phytoplankton bloom patterns displayed pronounced temporal phase shifts and changes in their amplitude. Notably, our simulations suggest that OAE can have a slightly stimulating effect on NPP, which is however variable, depending on the magnitude of OAE and the temporal mode of alkalinity addition. Furthermore, we find that increasing alkalinity perturbations can lead to a shift in phytoplankton community composition (towards coccolithophores), which even persists after OAE has stopped. In terms of CDR, we found that a decrease in efficiency with increasing magnitude of alkalinity addition, as well as substantial differences related to the timing of addition. Altogether, our results suggest that annual OAE during the right season (i.e. physical and biological conditions), could be a reasonable compromise in terms of logistical feasibility, efficiency of CDR and side-effects on marine biota. With respect to transferability to global models, the complex, non-linear responses of biological processes to OAE identified in our simulations do not allow for simple parameterizations that can easily adapted. Dedicated future work is required to transfer the observed responses at small spatiotemporal scales to the coarser resolution of global models.
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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.
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Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
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Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka, Erik Fridell, Jaakko Kukkonen, Jana Moldanova, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Achilleas Grigoriadis, Maria Moustaka, et al. Environmental impacts of exhaust gas cleaning systems in the Baltic Sea, North Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea area. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361898.
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Description: Shipping is responsible for a range of different pressures affecting air quality, climate, and the marine environment. Most social and economic analyses of shipping have focused on air pollution assessment and how shipping may impact climate change and human health. This risks that policies may be biased towards air pollution and climate change, whilst impacts on the marine environment are not as well known. One example is the sulfur regulation introduced in January 2020, which requires shipowners to use a compliant fuel with a sulfur content of 0.5% (0.1% in SECA regions) or use alternative compliance options (Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems, EGCS) that are effective in reducing sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions to the atmosphere. The EGCS cleaning process results in large volumes of discharged water that includes a wide range of contaminants. Although regulations target SOx removal, other pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), metals and combustion particles are removed from the exhaust to the wash water and subsequently discharged to the marine environment. Based on dilution series of the Whole Effluent Testing (WET), the impact of the EGCS effluent on marine invertebrate species and on phytoplankton was found to vary between taxonomic groups, and between different stages of the invertebrate life cycle. Invertebrates were more affected than phytoplankton, and the most sensitive endpoint detected in the present project was the fertilisation of sea urchin eggs, which were negatively affected at a sample dilution of 1 : 1,000,000. Dilutions of 1: 100,000 were harmful to early development of several of the tested species, including mussels, polychaetes, and crustaceans. The observed effects at these low concentrations of EGCS effluent were reduced egg production, and deformations and abnormal development of the larvae of the species. The ecotoxicological data produced in the EMERGE project were used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentration values. Corresponding modelling studies revealed that the EGCS effluent can be considered as a single entity for 2-10 days from the time of discharge, depending on the environmental conditions like sea currents, winds, and temperature. Area 10-30 km outside the shipping lanes will be prone to contaminant concentrations corresponding to 1 : 1,000,000 dilution which was deemed harmful for most sensitive endpoints of WET experiments. Studies for the Saronikos Gulf (Aegean Sea) revealed that the EGCS effluent dilution rate exceeded the 1 : 1,000,000 ratio 70% of the time at a distance of about 10 km from the port. This was also observed for 15% of the time within a band of 10 km wide along the shipping lane extending 500 km away from the port of Piraeus. When mortality of adult specimens of one of the species (copepod Acartia tonsa) was used as an endpoint it was found to be 3-4 orders of magnitude less sensitive to EGCS effluent than early life stage endpoints like fertilisation of eggs and larval development. Mortality of Acartia tonsa is commonly used in standard protocols for ecotoxicological studies, but our data hence shows that it seriously underestimates the ecologically relevant toxicity of the effluent. The same is true for two other commonly used and recommended endpoints, phytoplankton growth and inhibition of bioluminescence in marine bacteria. Significant toxic effects were reached only after addition of 20-40% effluent. A marine environmental risk assessment was performed for the Öresund region for baseline year 2018, where Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of open loop effluent discharge water were compared to the PNEC value. The results showed modelled concentrations of open loop effluent in large areas to be two to three orders of magnitude higher than the derived PNEC value, yielding a Risk Characterisation Ratio of 500-5000, which indicates significant environmental risk. Further, it should be noted that between 2018-2022 the number of EGCS vessels more than quadrupled in the area from 178 to 781. In this work, the EGCS discharges of the fleet in the Baltic Sea, North Sea, the English Channel, and the Mediterranean Sea area were studied in detail. The assessments of impacts described in this document were performed using a baseline year 2018 and future scenarios. These were made for the year 2050, based on different projections of transport volumes, also considering the fuel efficiency requirements and ship size developments. From the eight scenarios developed, two extremes were chosen for impact studies which illustrate the differences between a very high EGCS usage and a future without the need for EGCS while still compliant to IMO initial GHG strategy. The scenario without EGCS leads to 50% reduction of GHG emissions using low sulfur fuels, LNG, and methanol. For the high EGCS adoption scenario in 2050, about a third of the fleet sailing the studied sea areas would use EGCS and effluent discharge volumes would be increased tenfold for the Baltic Sea and hundredfold for the Mediterranean Sea when compared to 2018 baseline discharges. Some of the tested species, mainly the copepods, have a central position in pelagic food webs as they feed on phytoplankton and are themselves the main staple food for most fish larvae and for some species of adult fish, e.g., herring. The direct effect of the EGSE on invertebrates will therefore have an important indirect effect on the fish feeding on them. Effects are greatest in and near shipping lanes. Many important shipping lanes run close to shore and archipelago areas, and this also puts the sensitive shallow water coastal ecosystems at risk. It should be noted that no studies on sub-lethal effects of early 19 life stages in fish were included in the EMERGE project, nor are there any available data on this in the scientific literature. The direct toxic effects on fish at the expected concentrations of EGCS effluent are therefore largely unknown. According to the regional modelling studies, some of the contaminants will end up in sediments along the coastlines and archipelagos. The documentation of the complex chemical composition of EGCS effluent is in sharp contrast to the present legislation on threshold levels for content in EGCS effluent discharged from ships, which includes but a few PAHs, pH, and turbidity. Traditional assessments of PAHs in environmental and marine samples focus only on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) list of 16 priority PAHs, which includes only parent PAHs. Considering the complex PAHs assemblages and the importance of other related compounds, it is important to extend the EPA list to include alkyl-PAHs to obtain a representative monitoring of EGCS effluent and to assess the impact of its discharges into the marine environment. An economic evaluation of the installation and operational costs of EGCS was conducted noting the historical fuel price differences of high and low sulfur fuels. Equipment types, installation dates and annual fuel consumption from global simulations indicated that 51% of the global EGCS fleet had already reached break-even by the end of 2022, resulting in a summarised profit of 4.7 billion €2019. Within five years after the initial installation, more than 95% of the ships with open loop EGCS reach break-even. The pollutant loads from shipping come both through atmospheric deposition and direct discharges. This underlines the need of minimising the release of contaminants by using fuels which reduce the air emissions of harmful components without creating new pollution loads through discharges. Continued use of EGCS and high sulfur fossil fuels will delay the transition to more sustainable options. The investments made on EGCS enable ships to continue using fossil fuels instead of transitioning away from them as soon as possible as agreed in the 2023 Dubai Climate Change conference. Continued carriage of residual fuels also increases the risk of dire environmental consequences whenever accidental releases of oil to the sea occur.
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African Open Science Platform Part 1: Landscape Study. Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/assaf.2019/0047.
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This report maps the African landscape of Open Science – with a focus on Open Data as a sub-set of Open Science. Data to inform the landscape study were collected through a variety of methods, including surveys, desk research, engagement with a community of practice, networking with stakeholders, participation in conferences, case study presentations, and workshops hosted. Although the majority of African countries (35 of 54) demonstrates commitment to science through its investment in research and development (R&D), academies of science, ministries of science and technology, policies, recognition of research, and participation in the Science Granting Councils Initiative (SGCI), the following countries demonstrate the highest commitment and political willingness to invest in science: Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. In addition to existing policies in Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), the following countries have made progress towards Open Data policies: Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda. Only two African countries (Kenya and South Africa) at this stage contribute 0.8% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to R&D (Research and Development), which is the closest to the AU’s (African Union’s) suggested 1%. Countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar ranked as 0%, while the R&D expenditure for 24 African countries is unknown. In addition to this, science globally has become fully dependent on stable ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) infrastructure, which includes connectivity/bandwidth, high performance computing facilities and data services. This is especially applicable since countries globally are finding themselves in the midst of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is not only “about” data, but which “is” data. According to an article1 by Alan Marcus (2015) (Senior Director, Head of Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries, World Economic Forum), “At its core, data represents a post-industrial opportunity. Its uses have unprecedented complexity, velocity and global reach. As digital communications become ubiquitous, data will rule in a world where nearly everyone and everything is connected in real time. That will require a highly reliable, secure and available infrastructure at its core, and innovation at the edge.” Every industry is affected as part of this revolution – also science. An important component of the digital transformation is “trust” – people must be able to trust that governments and all other industries (including the science sector), adequately handle and protect their data. This requires accountability on a global level, and digital industries must embrace the change and go for a higher standard of protection. “This will reassure consumers and citizens, benefitting the whole digital economy”, says Marcus. A stable and secure information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure – currently provided by the National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) – is key to advance collaboration in science. The AfricaConnect2 project (AfricaConnect (2012–2014) and AfricaConnect2 (2016–2018)) through establishing connectivity between National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), is planning to roll out AfricaConnect3 by the end of 2019. The concern however is that selected African governments (with the exception of a few countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia and others) have low awareness of the impact the Internet has today on all societal levels, how much ICT (and the 4th Industrial Revolution) have affected research, and the added value an NREN can bring to higher education and research in addressing the respective needs, which is far more complex than simply providing connectivity. Apart from more commitment and investment in R&D, African governments – to become and remain part of the 4th Industrial Revolution – have no option other than to acknowledge and commit to the role NRENs play in advancing science towards addressing the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). For successful collaboration and direction, it is fundamental that policies within one country are aligned with one another. Alignment on continental level is crucial for the future Pan-African African Open Science Platform to be successful. Both the HIPSSA ((Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa)3 project and WATRA (the West Africa Telecommunications Regulators Assembly)4, have made progress towards the regulation of the telecom sector, and in particular of bottlenecks which curb the development of competition among ISPs. A study under HIPSSA identified potential bottlenecks in access at an affordable price to the international capacity of submarine cables and suggested means and tools used by regulators to remedy them. Work on the recommended measures and making them operational continues in collaboration with WATRA. In addition to sufficient bandwidth and connectivity, high-performance computing facilities and services in support of data sharing are also required. The South African National Integrated Cyberinfrastructure System5 (NICIS) has made great progress in planning and setting up a cyberinfrastructure ecosystem in support of collaborative science and data sharing. The regional Southern African Development Community6 (SADC) Cyber-infrastructure Framework provides a valuable roadmap towards high-speed Internet, developing human capacity and skills in ICT technologies, high- performance computing and more. The following countries have been identified as having high-performance computing facilities, some as a result of the Square Kilometre Array7 (SKA) partnership: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zambia. More and more NRENs – especially the Level 6 NRENs 8 (Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and recently Zambia) – are exploring offering additional services; also in support of data sharing and transfer. The following NRENs already allow for running data-intensive applications and sharing of high-end computing assets, bio-modelling and computation on high-performance/ supercomputers: KENET (Kenya), TENET (South Africa), RENU (Uganda), ZAMREN (Zambia), EUN (Egypt) and ARN (Algeria). Fifteen higher education training institutions from eight African countries (Botswana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania) have been identified as offering formal courses on data science. In addition to formal degrees, a number of international short courses have been developed and free international online courses are also available as an option to build capacity and integrate as part of curricula. The small number of higher education or research intensive institutions offering data science is however insufficient, and there is a desperate need for more training in data science. The CODATA-RDA Schools of Research Data Science aim at addressing the continental need for foundational data skills across all disciplines, along with training conducted by The Carpentries 9 programme (specifically Data Carpentry 10 ). Thus far, CODATA-RDA schools in collaboration with AOSP, integrating content from Data Carpentry, were presented in Rwanda (in 2018), and during17-29 June 2019, in Ethiopia. Awareness regarding Open Science (including Open Data) is evident through the 12 Open Science-related Open Access/Open Data/Open Science declarations and agreements endorsed or signed by African governments; 200 Open Access journals from Africa registered on the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ); 174 Open Access institutional research repositories registered on openDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories); 33 Open Access/Open Science policies registered on ROARMAP (Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies); 24 data repositories registered with the Registry of Data Repositories (re3data.org) (although the pilot project identified 66 research data repositories); and one data repository assigned the CoreTrustSeal. Although this is a start, far more needs to be done to align African data curation and research practices with global standards. Funding to conduct research remains a challenge. African researchers mostly fund their own research, and there are little incentives for them to make their research and accompanying data sets openly accessible. Funding and peer recognition, along with an enabling research environment conducive for research, are regarded as major incentives. The landscape report concludes with a number of concerns towards sharing research data openly, as well as challenges in terms of Open Data policy, ICT infrastructure supportive of data sharing, capacity building, lack of skills, and the need for incentives. Although great progress has been made in terms of Open Science and Open Data practices, more awareness needs to be created and further advocacy efforts are required for buy-in from African governments. A federated African Open Science Platform (AOSP) will not only encourage more collaboration among researchers in addressing the SDGs, but it will also benefit the many stakeholders identified as part of the pilot phase. The time is now, for governments in Africa, to acknowledge the important role of science in general, but specifically Open Science and Open Data, through developing and aligning the relevant policies, investing in an ICT infrastructure conducive for data sharing through committing funding to making NRENs financially sustainable, incentivising open research practices by scientists, and creating opportunities for more scientists and stakeholders across all disciplines to be trained in data management.