Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Economic indicators – Africa'

The study examines the effect of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa. A VAR-5 model was applied to quarterly data of 1990:Q1-2012:Q4 estimating the impulse response functions, variance decomposition and Granger-causality tests. The findings allow for a conclusion that oil significantly affects the exchange rate and an inverse link between oil and GDP exists. A unidirectional relation is found where oil Granger-causes the exchange rate and GDP Granger-causes oil in South Africa.

Sustainability reporting is becoming increasingly important, and governments and stock exchanges of many countries require or strongly encourage businesses to provide some level of sustainability reporting. South Africa is one of few emerging market economies and the only country in Africa which show substantial sustainability reporting activities. In South Africa, sustainable development has been recognised at a constitutional and legislative level. Companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) must integrate sustainability reporting with financial reporting, or explain why they are not complying. Establishing a suitable sustainability reporting framework should therefore be part of the strategic integration of sustainability with other aspects of organisational planning and decision-making. This study suggests such a framework of standards and indicators for sustainability reporting in South African businesses, and evaluates it in South African listed companies. Mixed methods research was used in two phases. In phase 1, a critical analysis of the literature produced a framework of standards and indicators to be used as a measure to evaluate sustainability reporting in South Africa. In phase 2, first hand, original data was collected by performing a quantitative content analysis of sustainability reports of 84 companies listed on the Johannesburg stock exchange with the aim to identify standards and indicators that are applied in the content of sustainability reports in South Africa. Quantitative content analysis involves analysing material and then classifying it into various coding units or themes found in the material - it is a systematic way of converting text to numerical variables for quantitative data analysis.

The control of inflation requires a forecast of the future path of the price level and its indicators. Targeting inflation directly requires that the central bank (SARB) form forecasts of the likely path of prices paying close attention to a variety of indicators that shows the predictive power of inflation in the past periods. Inflation indicators might be cointegrated with the rate of inflation to predict the future inflation rates. Forecasting inflation may be very difficult at a particular period due to the fact that the array candidate indicators of inflation may neither be very stable nor very strong in their relationships with the rate of inflation. Although this might be the case, this research uses testable effects of each of the South African inflation indicators to the rate of inflation using econometrics tools to find that they have a long run trend with the rate of inflation in South Africa. It has been found that each of the indicator variables has a long run relationship with the rate of inflation. The major conclusion is that inflation indicator variables like money supply (M3), oil price, gold price, total employment, interest rates, exchange rates and output growth can be useful inflation indicators in targeting the future trends of inflation in South Africa according to the data used in this research although some studies in some countries find that inflation targeting is an insufficient framework for monetary policy in the presence of financial exuberance. The money supply, the oil prices, interest rates, the exchange rates, prices of gold, the employment and output growth are co-integrated with the rate of inflation representing a long-run relationship.

Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006.
The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. Part I of the thesis is concerned with the characteristics of cycles in financial variables within the South African context. The first chapter presents a taxonomy of the concepts of classical, deviation and growth rate cycles in order to establish a simple reference framework for cycle concepts. At this point the concept of a ‘turning point cycle’ is introduced, with particular focus on the non-parametric method of turning point identification, following Harding and Pagan’s recent translation of the original work of Burns and Mitchell into a modern version with a sound statistical basis. With the turning points identified the dissertation proceeds to an exposition of descriptive measures of expansion and contraction phases. The second chapter entails an empirical report on descriptive results for amplitude and duration characteristics of cycle phases in the different financial variables, with separate reports for classical cycles and growth rate cycles. Chapter two concludes with a series of tables in which the behaviour of cycle phases are compared for different financial variables. Part II considers financial variables as potential leading indicators of the business cycle in South Africa. Chapter 3 introduces the concept ‘leading indicator’ to this end and distinguishes the original concept from modern, econometric versions. The chapter then introduces a framework for evaluating potential leading indicators, which emphasises two requirements: firstly, broad co-movement between cycles in the proposed leading indicator and the business cycle and, secondly, stability in the number of months between turning points in cycles of the proposed indicator and business cycle turning points. The capacity of potential indicators to meet these criteria is measured via the concordance statistic and the ‘lead profile’ respectively. Chapter four provides the statistical basis for the concordance statistic, after which the empirical results (presented separately for classical and growth rate cycles) are presented. The fifth chapter presents the statistical test for the stability of the interval by which cyclical turning points in the potential indicator lead turning points in the business cycle. Empirical results are presented in both tabular form (the ‘lead profile’) and graphical form (the ‘lead profile chart’). As far as can be determined, this analysis represents the first application of the ‘lead profile’ evaluation to financial variables. Chapter six concludes by presenting a summary of the results and a brief comparison with findings from an econometric study of leading indicators for South Africa.

The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.

This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.

In order to be able to determine the contribution of the tourism sector to the KwaZulu-Natal economy, the study starts by reviewing some economic indicators that show the contribution of different economic sectors to GDP and to the economy in general. Where possible a comparison was made with other provinces and the RSA. These comparisons showed that the KwaZulu-Natal economy still has many problems, such as a relatively low gross geographical product per capita and a high unemployment rate (32,2 per cent). However, it has the potential to be the largest contributor to the GDP of the country despite the political problems that are still prevalent in some areas of the province, and also the fact that it has the largest population compared to other provinces. The manufacturing sector is the highest contributor to GDP and during 1988 to 1994 its average contribution was 30,3 per cent, followed by trade and government sectors with 16 per cent and 13,4 per cent respectively. The study reviewed the economic principles underlying the tourism industry, and also attempted to put the tourism industry into perspective with other economic sectors. This revealed that the tourism industry by its nature falls into the category of service industries and that it is governed by the same economic principles that govern any market namely, demand and supply forces. Most importantly however, is the realisation that this industry has a significant macroeconomic impact, for example, on inflation, employment, balance of payments and economic growth. The study has attempted to elicit the views of those involved in tourism activities and through the use of secondary sources examined the position of the South African tourism industry to that in the world and more importantly the relative position of the KwaZulu-Natal tourism industry. This data showed that there is a steady increase in the tourists inflow from 1985 to 199 5 (from 728 000 to 4.5 million) and also revealed their spending patterns. Based on this data, projections were made for 1998 to 2006, and these projections are in line with most of the economic analysts' speculations that there will be a steady increase of foreign tourist arrivals for the next five to ten years. Thus, the study has taken both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. It was also found that in order for the tourism industry to contribute successfully to the economic growth of the province, it has to be properly developed and managed, which means that there has to be a policy that will guide the actions of all the interest groups, and all the appropriate structures has to be put in place following market development principles. The roles of different institutions, whether government, private sector or non-governmental organisations have to be defined and co-ordinated towards the same goals, that is, to have a tourism industry that is economically viable and that benefits all the communities.
Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
Economics
unrestricted

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sustainable development has gained great interest at global, national and local community levels. For instance, governments, civil societies, the commercial sector as well as local communities have responded to the agreed framework of UNCED known as Agenda 21, developed at the „Earth Summit‟ held at Rio de Janeiro in 1992, inter alia through the development of indicators aimed at monitoring and evaluating the achievement of sustainable development. As a result, different tools to measure the level of sustainability have been developed and applied in many cities globally. These include different types of indicators, namely environmental, social, and economic performance monitoring indicators, as well as combined indices. Since cities are dynamic complex open systems with interrelated social, economic and environmental systems, and sustainable development cannot be absolutely achieved, integrated sustainable development indicators that concurrently address social, economic and environmental dimensions are crucial to aid in monitoring sustainable development particularly in any given urban system. This study gives an overview of these indicators and indices. The South Africa government has acknowledged in both its National Framework for Sustainable Development of September 2006 and the Draft National Strategy for Sustainable Development and Action Plan of May 2010 that like other cities globally, cities in this country face similar challenges particularly due to urbanisation. In this study, the focus is on evaluating the sustainability challenges of the City of Cape Town and the role sustainability indicators could play in helping to achieve sustainable development objectives. This is supported by a review of the so called „sustainable cities‟ and in particular how the Cities of Seattle (USA), Santa Monica (USA) and Curitiba (Brazil) have tried to address urban challenges. To meet the study objective of recommending the type and a process of developing indicators that will aid in improving sustainability in the City of Cape Town, selected indicators and indexes developed globally, nationally and for other cities are critically reviewed. Selected policies, plans and indicators developed by the South African national government, the Western Cape provincial government, and the City of Cape Town are reviewed. The review aims at investigating whether the existing policies and indicators were useful in addressing sustainability challenges particularly in the City of Cape Town. The review focuses on the policy objectives to assess whether the policies contradicted or were supportive of each other, the existence or lack thereof of gaps in the policies, and whether local communities and other stakeholders were involved in decision making processes. The findings suggests that although sustainable development is addressed in the policy documents of all three spheres of government in South Africa, the implementation has not yet been effective – and the City of Cape Town is no exception based on published reports such as the State of Cape Town Report. On the basis of the lessons derived from the success stories of cities like Seattle, Santa Monica, and Curitiba towards achieving sustainability, several recommendations are suggested to assist the City of Cape Town in developing, implementing, and reporting on sustainability indicators.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Op internasionale, nasionale asook plaaslike gemeenskapsvlakke het volhoubare ontwikkeling groot belangstelling gelok. In reaksie op die ooreengekome raamwerk van UNCED, Agenda 21, ontwikkel by die “Earth Summit” (Rio de Janeiro, 1992), is aanwysers gemik op die monitering en implementering van volhoubare ontwikkeling deur regerings, burgerlike samelewings, die kommersiële sektor asook plaaslike gemeenskappe ontwikkel. Dit het gelei tot die ontwikkeling en implementering van verskillende instrumente vir die meet van volhoubaarheid in verskeie stede wêreldwyd. Hierdie instrumente sluit in verskillende aanwysers, ondermeer omgewings-, sosiale-, ekonomiese- en prestasie aanwysers asook gekombineerde indekse. Omdat stede dinamies komplekse ope sisteme met interafhanklike sosiale, ekonomiese en omgewingssisteme is, en volhoubare ontwikkeling nie absoluut bereikbaar is nie, is geintegreerde volhoubare ontwikkelings aanwysers wat sosiale, ekonomiese en omgewings dimensies gelyktydig aanspreek van kritieke belang in die monitering van volhoubare ontwikkeling, spesifiek in enige gegewe stedelike sisteem. In beide sy nasionale raamwerk vir volhoubare ontwikkeling (Julie 2008) en nasionale strategie vir volhoubare ontwikkeling en Aksie plan (weergawe van 20 Mei 2010) het die Suid Afrikaanse regering erken dat plaaslike stede, soos ander wêreldwyd, dieselfde uitdagings in die gesig staar veral as gevolg van verstedeliking. Die fokus van hierdie studie was die evaluering van die volhoubaarheids-uitdagings van die Stad Kaapstad en die moontlike rol wat volhoubaarheids-aanwysers kan speel in ʼn poging om volhoubare ontwikkelings doelwitte te bereik. Hierdie word ondersteun deur ʼn oorsig van die sogenaamde “volhoubare stede” en spesifiek hoe stede soos Seattle (VSA), Santa Monica (VSA), en Curitiba (Brasilië) stedelike uitdagings probeer aanspreek het. Ten einde die studie doelwit aangaande die aanbeveling van die ontwikkelingsproses van aanwysers en indekse vir die verbetering van volhoubaarheid in die Stad Kaapstad te bereik, is verskeie internasionale, nasionale sowel as stedelike volhoubare ontwikkelings indekse krities geëvalueer. Geselekteerde beleid, planne en aanwysers wat deur die Suid Afrikaanse Nasionale regering, die Wes Kaapse provinsiale regering en die Stad Kaapstad ontwikkel is, is ondersoek. Die doel van hierdie evaluasie was om vas te stel of bestaande beleid en aanwysers nuttig is, in die aanspreek van volhoubaarheids-uitdagings spesifiek in die Stad Kaapstad. Die fokus van die evaluasie was op beleidsdoelwitte ten einde te bepaal of: verskeie beleid teenstrydigheid toon of andersins ondersteunend is, die bestaan of gebrek aan leemtes in beleid en of plaaslike gemeenskappe en of ander belange groepe in die besluitnemingsproses betrokke is. Die bevindinge dui daarop dat alhoewel volhoubare ontwikkeling in beleidsdokumente van al drie sfere van die Suid Afrikaanse regering aangespreek word, die implementering daarvan nog nie so doeltreffend is nie - en gebaseer op gepubliseerde verslae soos die stand van Kaapstad, is die Stad van Kaapstad nie ʼn uitsondering nie. Na aanleiding van lesse geleer uit die sukses verhale van stede soos Seattle, Santa Monica en Curitiba in die bereiking van volhoubare ontwikkeling is verskeie aanbevelings gemaak om die Stad Kaapstad by te staan in die ontwikkeling, implementering, en rapportering van volhoubaarheids-aanwysers.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this paper the effectiveness of "transplanting" a particular methodology of a probabilistic approach is assessed in a South African economic context. The methodology makes use of leading indicators which are used in regression models, with a dichotomous response variable, assuming values of 0 or 1 to indicate expansion or contraction of economic activity. The backbone of the study closely replicates the work of Nazmi (1993) and his work on turning point prediction. The recorded results indicate an ability of the model to accurately forecast businesscycle turning points in the 1980s. In the period of the 1990s, the model displays a diminished capacity to forecast the turning points with acceptable accuracy. Leading indicators, in the South African experience, show a reliable leading relationship to the composite coincident index in the current study period between 1970 and 1980 and thereafter this relationship decreases, impacting negatively upon the forecasting ability of the model.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van 'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die voorspellingsvermoe van die model. In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van 'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die voorspellingsvermoe van die model.

The current international monetary system is very different from that of a few decades ago. Many of the old restrictions that had been placed on currency and capital movements between countries have fallen away in favour of a much more liberal international payment and investment system. The global financial arena is now characterized by greater currency instability, volatility and heightened financial risks. Exchange Rate risk is one of the complex topics in the economic world. Since there are so many factors in the financial market that influence a country's currency value, it becomes very risky for importers, exporters and portfolio investors to be involved in the international trade and financial markets. The purpose of this study is to gain an understanding on how the major economic indicators have an impact on the decision-making of the importers, the exporters and investors, to further influence the volatility of the Rand; and to provide various hedging and arbitraging strategies to reduce foreign exchange rate risks. The layout of the study is based on six chapters. Chapter 1 focuses on the background and scope of the study, mainly explaining the reasons, objectives and methodology of this study. An historical overview takes place in chapter 2, where a number of different exchange rate systems will be discussed. Chapter 3 reviews different exchange rate theories in order to support the empirical study in the next chapter. Chapter 4 focuses on an investigation and comparative study on how foreign investments and trade with developed countries have an impact on currency values and visa-versa. A number of management strategies for reducing exchange rate risks are introduced in chapter 5. Chapter 6 is the summary and conclusion of the research.
Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2009.

Magister Public Health - MPH
Introduction: In recent years, cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a leading cause of death in developing countries. It is important to identify and target people who are at risk,given that a third of all deaths are expected to be due to CVD by 2020. Studies have shown socio-economic patterning in the prevalence of risk factors for CVD, including obesity,smoking and lipid profile. In developed countries, the association between socio-economic status (SES) and CVD risk factors is negative, with a higher prevalence of CVD risk factors among people of lower SES. However, findings from studies in developing countries on this including South Africa has been inconsistent. In addition, there is scant information on differences in socio-economic patterning of CVD risk factors between urban and rural areas in South Africa.Aim: To examine the association between SES indicators and CVD risk factors among an adult population cohort of Black South Africans living in a rural and urban community.Study design: Quantitative cross-sectional analytical study of baseline data of a populationbased cohort of 2000 Black South African men and women aged 30-70 years who are part of the Cape Town arm of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study. The study cohort has been established in Mount Frere, Eastern Cape (rural) and Langa, Cape Town(urban) since 2009 and the current work is secondary analysis of the baseline study data.Data collection/synthesis: SES indicators including income, employment status, marital status and completed education were gleaned from the baseline data of the PURE Cape Town study for all study participants. Then CVD risk factors including obesity, hypertension, selfreported diabetes, consumption of tobacco and alcohol consumption were also determined for the same participants. Data analysis: Data was analysed using SPSS version 20 for Windows. Descriptive statistics including frequency counts, percentages, mean and standard deviations (where normal distribution) and median and interquartile range (where non-normal) were used to summarise data on SES and CVD risk factors. This was performed separately for rural and urban study participants. Analytical statistics was used to examine associations between SES indicators and CVD risk factors with risk factors as both dichotomous and multi-level categorical variables. Kendall’s τ rank correlation coefficient was obtained to assess the relationship between the three indicators of SES. Prevalence rates reported with 95% confidence intervals was determined for risk factors across categories of SES indicators. P-values for trends in CVD risk factors were obtained by treating the SES indicators as categorical variables in logistic regression analyses. Multiple logistic regression analysis to estimate independent effects of the different SES indicators on risk factors was performed. In all analyses, P-values < 0.05 were regarded as significant.Results: There was a significant difference in the socioeconomic and CVD risk factors profile of urban and rural participants. Except for hypertension and tobacco use with insignificant higher prevalence in the urban location, all CVD risk factors were significantly higher in urban than rural participants. Some CVD risk factors (hypertension and diabetes) were positively associated with high SES (income) and some others (tobacco use) were negatively associated with employment status. Highest income earners had the highest risk of hypertension (AOR= 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-3.9) and diabetes (AOR= 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-4.1) after adjusting for age, sex and other SES variables. Marital status however showed the most consistent association across all CVD risk factors; widowed participants had a high risk of hypertension (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.2-3.7) and diabetes (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.7), but had the lowest risk of tobacco (OR=0.3, 95% CI 0.14-0.66) and alcohol use (OR=0.3, 95% CI 0.15-0.72). The distribution of CVD risk factors by SES gradient showed inconsistent patterning and difference between the urban and rural participants.Conclusion: In this cohort of adult Black South Africans, high income earning and widowed marital status were associated with higher hypertension and diabetes prevalence, while unemployment was associated with higher tobacco use.Recommendations: CVD risk reduction interventions that recognise the differential susceptibility of individuals in different SES group need to be designed and implemented.Widows and widowers should be given focussed attention in health screening as they may have increased vulnerability to diseases especially CVDs. There is however need for more research to establish the pathway through which SES factors predispose or protect individuals from CVDs.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: An alternative measure of progress to GDP was evaluated in the Bakgatla-Ba-Kgafela tribe (in total N = 119) using subjective wellbeing or happiness. The major dimensions of happiness were assumed to be physical, mental, social, spiritual, educational, environmental, occupational, and financial wellbeing or income and governance. Amongst the Bakgatla, correlation testing identified two clusters or core sub-sets of relationships, based on the strength of relationships, which appear to work in parallel to one another, with divergent outcomes of either increased happiness or income. The first cluster is related to traditional economic rationality and consists of Education Level, Income and Employment Security. The second cluster, more closely related to principles of sustainable development, consists of Social Wellbeing, Environmental Wellbeing and Happiness. An insignificant correlation between Income and Happiness exists. A multiple regression analysis was conducted with Happiness as the dependent variable and the major wellbeing dimensions as the independent variables (R² = .286). Statistically significant Standardized Beta’s calculated in the regression analysis are Social wellbeing (0.464), Educational level (-0.226), Governance (0.205) and Physical wellbeing (0.194). Although a cause-and-effect relationship can’t be assumed, the supposition is that ceteris paribus: • Happy people tend to have higher levels of social wellbeing or social capital; • The more educated people are, the less happy they are; • The more trust people have in public institutions and the state, the happier they are; and • Happy people tend to be healthier. Therefore, holding all other explanatory variables constant, it can be assumed that income has no bearing on subjective wellbeing. Therefore we reject the Null Hypothesis that the Bakgatla’s progress is purely determined by their annual per capita income. The relationship between income and subjective wellbeing for the Bakgatla follows global patterns - an initial increase in happiness as income increases is pronounced but ‘flattens’ somewhat as a higher level of income is reached and diminishes as very high levels of income are achieved. The critical turning point where income has a diminishing rate of return on satisfaction is around R20 000 per annum per person. This corroborates the human needs theories which proposes that a hierarchy of needs for human beings exist and until the basic needs are met, higher needs cannot be met. The present findings have implications for the Bakgatla: in order to increase happiness and promote development, the Bakgatla should focus on four key aspects: meeting basic needs; increasing social capital; increasing trust in the Tribal Authorities; and improving physical health. In addition, education and environmental wellbeing should also be focal points but changes need to be made to the education curriculum so that there is a strong focus on sustainable development. An important policy implication that the Bakgatla need to consider, is balancing the needs of the current generation with the needs of future generations. Economic growth or income may bring a certain amount of happiness; environmental destruction, crime and human health implications may outweigh these benefits and happiness in both the current and future generations.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie is subjektiewe welstand of geluk as alternatief vir bruto binnelandse produk (BBP) as vooruitgangsmaatstaf by die Bakgatla-Ba-Kgafela-stam (altesaam N = 119) ondersoek. Die veronderstelde hoofaspekte van geluk wat in die studie getoets is, is fisiese welstand, geesteswelstand, maatskaplike welstand, spirituele welstand, opvoedkundige welstand, omgewingswelstand, beroepswelstand, finansiële welstand of inkomste, en bestuur. Korrelasietoetse onder die Bakgatla het twee beduidende groepe of kernsubstelle verwantskappe uitgewys, welke groepe oënskynlik gelyklopend funksioneer, met uiteenlopende dog nieverwante uitkomste van hetsy verhoogde geluk of verhoogde inkomste. Die eerste groep hou verband met tradisionele ekonomiese rasionaliteit, en bestaan uit onderrigvlak, inkomste en werksekerheid. Die tweede groep, wat eerder met beginsels van volhoubare ontwikkeling saamhang, bestaan uit maatskaplike welstand, omgewingswelstand en geluk. Die studie toon onbeduidende verband tussen inkomste en geluk. Meervoudige regressieontleding is met geluk as afhanklike veranderlike en die hoofwelstandsaspekte as onafhanklike veranderlikes uitgevoer (R² = 0,286). Statisties beduidende gestandaardiseerde betakoëffisiënte wat in die regressieontleding bereken is, is maatskaplike welstand (0,464), opvoedingsvlak (-0,226), bestuur (0,205) en fisiese welstand (0,194). Hoewel oorsaak-en-gevolg-verwantskap nie aanvaar kan word nie, word daar vermoed dat, met alle ander faktore gelyk: • gelukkige mense geneig is om hoër vlakke van maatskaplike welstand of maatskaplike kapitaal te geniet; • hoe meer opgevoed mense is, hoe ongelukkiger is hulle; • hoe meer vertroue mense in openbare instellings en die staat het, hoe gelukkiger is hulle; en • gelukkige mense geneig is om gesonder te wees. Indien alle ander verklarende veranderlikes konstant gehou word, word daar dus aanvaar dat inkomste geen verband met subjektiewe welstand toon nie. Daarom word die nulhipotese dat die Bakgatla se vooruitgang alleenlik deur hul jaarlikse inkomste per capita bepaal word, verwerp. Die verwantskap tussen inkomste en subjektiewe welstand vir die Bakgatla volg internasionale patrone: Aanvanklik neem geluk duidelik toe namate inkomste verhoog, plat dan effens af namate hoër inkomstevlak bereik word, en verminder aansienlik wanneer baie hoë inkomstevlakke bereik word. Die kritiese draaipunt waar inkomste verlaagde opbrengskoers op tevredenheid toon, is sowat R20 000 per jaar per persoon. Dít staaf die menslikebehoefte-teorie wat aan die hand doen dat mense oor hiërargie van behoeftes beskik en dat daar eers in basiese behoeftes voorsien moet word voordat behoeftes hoër op in die hiërargie aan die beurt kan kom. Hierdie bevindinge het bepaalde implikasies vir die Bakgatla: Ten einde geluk te verhoog en ontwikkeling aan te moedig, behoort die Bakgatla op vier kernaspekte te konsentreer, naamlik voorsiening in basiese behoeftes, die vermeerdering van maatskaplike kapitaal, die verhoging van vertroue in die stamowerhede, en verbetering van liggaamlike gesondheid. Voorts behoort opvoedkundige en omgewingswelstand ook fokuspunte te wees, maar moet die onderrigkurrikulum aangepas word om sterker klem op volhoubare ontwikkeling te plaas. Belangrike beleidsimplikasie wat die Bakgatla moet oorweeg, is om ewewig te vind tussen die behoeftes van die huidige geslag en die behoeftes van toekomstige geslagte. Ekonomiese groei of inkomste kan inderdaad sekere hoeveelheid geluk skep. Tog kan omgewingsvernietiging, misdaad en swak menslike gesondheid hierdie voordele en geluk in sowel die huidige as toekomstige geslagte oorskadu. Bykomende navorsing word vir die toekoms aanbeveel.

Research and policy-making in education have historically focused on quantitative measures of education when assessing the state of education across countries. Recently, large-scale cross-national tests of cognitive skills have emerged as one way of moving beyond mere quantitative indicators of education, and instead allow researchers to incorporate qualitative elements of education, most notably what students know and can do. Notwithstanding the above, research and development initiatives too often assess these complementary aspects separately, which can lead to biased conclusions. To resolve this issue, the research presented here follows the method developed by Spaull and Taylor (2015) and provides composite measures of educational quantity (grade completion) and quality (learning outcomes) for six Francophone African countries. These composite measures are termed access to literacy and access to numeracy for literacy and numeracy rates respectively. This work also explores quantity and quality indicators separately to ascertain whether problems of access to schooling, or problems of quality among those already enrolled, is a more pertinent development issue. Finally, this work also contributes to understanding the extent and nature of inequalities, by looking at gender and socioeconomic status groups separately when considering (1) access, (2) learning outcomes, and (3) a composite measure of access and learning. Results of this work point to an education crisis within these African countries where both non-enrolment and a lack of learning within schools are contributing to dismal educational outcomes, even at the grade 2 level but especially at the grade 5 level. For example, only 18% and 25% of the grade 5 cohort investigated have access to literacy and access to numeracy, respectively, in Togo. Furthermore, inequality within socioeconomic groups is extremely large resulting in near zero estimates of competency levels for the most economically disadvantaged in some countries. Gender discrimination is dwarfed by economic discrimination but mean estimates suggest that while educational opportunities are similar for males and females at a grade 2 level, gender discrimination may already be visible at the grade 5 level.

The building industry is complex, diversified, and labour-intensive. These aspects, together with its inherent instability, are analysed. Improved forecasting methods can assist in economic planning within the industry and formulation of public policy. Economic stabilisation policies can benefit participants in the industry and society at large. In this study leading indicators are developed for the South African building industry to assist in forecasting future demand levels. Use is made of qualitative survey data and quantitative time series. The quarterly qualitative data emanate from the Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch. These data are gathered by questionnaire from building contractors and sub-contractors according to the Konjunkturtest developed by the lfo Institute, Munich, Germany. Principal component analyses of the business survey variables reveal that respondents behave purposefully and that these qualitative data are suitable for use as cyclical indicators in a composite index. The monthly quantitative data are compiled by the South African Reserve Bank and the Central Statistical Service, Pretoria, South Africa. The variables used in the construction of the leading indicators are weighted according to the scoring system developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, United States of America. The six criteria applied in this scoring system are: economic significance of the variables; statistical adequacy; timing at turning points; conformity to historical business cycles; currency; and smoothness. Separate composite leading indices are compiled from 33 qualitative variables and 8 quantitative time series, with the relevant scores as weights. It is found that these indices lead turnjng points of the reference cycle by between three and a half months and ten and a half months. However, the lead times are not consistent. This finding is in accordance with international experience. A combined leading indicator is constructed from these qualitative and quantitative indices (1971 to 1991). It is found that the statistical performance of the final composite leading indicator does not surpass the performance of the individual composite indices. It is suggested that the best forecasting results can be achieved if the qualitative and quantitative leading indices are · used independently, yet in conjunction with other economic indicators and other forecasting models.

Despite the many changes that have occurred in South Africa since the end of apartheid, there are still residual effects of it, as is evidenced in the disparity of living conditions between different racial groups. It is also evident that there are differences in the work tasks and working conditions of nurses working in different work environments. This project looks at how living conditions as well as working conditions interactively affect the health, subjective well-being, and work ability of nurses. Questionnaires were completed by, and interviews were conducted with nurses from Settlers Hospital and seven municipal clinics within Grahamstown (n=152). The participation rate was approximately 71%. The questionnaires included self-report, forced-choice questions regarding basic demographics of the nurses, work conditions, living conditions, subjective satisfaction levels, as well as a simplified version of the Nordic Questionnaire of Musculoskeletal Strain (Kuorinka et al., 1987), and the Work Ability Index (WAI) (Tuomi et al., 2006). The questionnaires were translated into Afrikaans and IsiXhosa. One-on-one interviews were conducted with the participants, in order to obtain a 24-hour dietary recall, an indication of physical activity levels, as well as measurements of stature, mass, waist girth and hip girth. Factor analysis was performed to identify common variance from amongst the variables, while canonical correlations examined the interaction between the sets of factors. It was found that variables relating to demographic factors, living conditions, and working conditions were closely linked to each other. Factors from each of these groups were associated with life, health, and job satisfaction, anthropometric measures, musculoskeletal strain, and WAI scores. Satisfaction levels appeared to be largely determined by socioeconomic status, while anthropometrics, WAI scores, and levels of musculoskeletal strain were associated with levels of smoking and drinking, race, age, stature, position and tenure.

Bibliography: leaves [73-77]
Prior to the 1990 currency crisis theoretical and empirical studies concentrated on establishing the causes of currency crises. Models developed then focused mainly on finding out a fixed exchange rate policy combined with excessively expansionary pre-crisis fundamentals push the economy into crisis with the private sector trying to profit from inconsistent policies. The 1990 currency crises on government controlled exchange rate in Europe and Mexico led to the development of new models called the second generation models on which a crisis occurs when the economy suddenly jumps from one solution to the other resulting in multiple equilibria. In these models the main cause of this multiplicity is the interaction between the private sector and government behaviour. There is no policy inconsistency before the crisis but the crisis itself induces a policy change that make the crises self- fulfilling. Policy- makers and academics have therefore focused their attention on policy discussions that involve identifying indicators of currency crisis. The process involves setting up early warning systems by monitoring the behaviour of certain key indicators.

Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2004.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: European-South African trade relations concerrnng wine and spirits are characterized by various opportunities and, at the same time, a range of conflicts. The latter notably relates to the dispute over geographical indications and designations of origin. Considering this confusing amalgamation of discord and harmony, it is the purpose of this study, entitled "International Trade in Wine and Geographical Indications - Common Interests between the EU and South Africa", to understand the rationale for trade in wine from both sides of the coin. Moreover, this research assesses possible multilateral and bilateral solutions for dealing with trade frictions between the EU and South Africa and identifies common interests with a view to establish a lasting foundation for blossoming trade in wine and sustained growth. The underlying methodology is a qualitative interpretative approach and bases on insights into modern marketing and international management theory. On this basis the "objective" interests of the EU and South Africa in trade in wine are analysed in order to assess the coming into existence of the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement as well as the Wine and Spirits Agreement. Pivot of these trade negotiations is the dispute on geographical indications, which is scrutinized by looking into relevant chapters of the WTO and its TR.IPS Agreement. With regards to the Wine and Spirits Agreement it is salient to ask whether it is economically and politically reasonable for South Africa to accept a financial package from the EU to secure the 'voluntary' phasing out of a number of trademarks and geographical indications. The study concludes with an outlook regarding the globalisation of the world's wine market, potential future investment flows between the EU and South Africa and the need for an effective marketing strategy in order to become or remain global player in an increasing competitiveness caused by globalisation.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Europese en Suid-Afrikaanse handelsverhoudinge in wyn en spiritualieë word gekenmerk deur verskeie geleenthede en terselfdertyd 'n reeks konflikte. Laasgenoemde hou merkbaar verband met die twis oor geografiese indikatore en aanwysings van oorsprong. Gegewe hierdie verwarrende tweedrag en harmonie, is die doel van hierdie studie, getiteld "Internasionale Handel in Wyn en Geografiese Aanwysings - Gemeenskaplike belange tussen die EU en Suid-Afrika", om die 'rationale' agter die wynhandel van twee kante te beskou. Verder ondersoek hierdie navorsing moontlike multi- en bilaterale oplossings vir die handelswrywing tussen die EU en Suid-Afrika en identifiseer gemeenskaplike belange met die doelom 'n fondament te bou vir volhoubare groei in die wynhandel. Die onderliggende metodologie is 'n kwalitatiewe verklarende benadering, gebaseer op insigte uit moderne bemarkings- en bestuursteorie. Op hierdie vlak word die 'objektiewe' belange van die EU en Suid-Afrika in die wynhandel ontleed om gevolgtrekkings oor die Handels-, Ontwikkelings- en Samewerkingsooreenkoms en die Wyn- en Spiritualieë- Ooreenkoms te maak. Onderliggend aan hierdie onderhandelinge is die twis oor geografiese aanwysings, wat noukeurig ondersoek is deur relevante hoofstukke van die WHO Ooreenkoms en sy TRIPS-komponent te raadpleeg. Met verwysing na die Wyn- en Spiritualieë- Ooreenkoms is dit voor die hand liggend om te vra of dit ekonomies en polities verstandig vir Suid-Afrika is om 'n finansiële pakket van die EU te aanvaar in ruil vir die vrywillige uitfasering van 'n aantal handelsmerke en geografiese aanwysings. Die studie sluit af met '11" blik op globalisering van die wêreld se wynmarkte, die potensiële toekomstige vloei van beleggings tussen die EU en Suid-Afrika, en die behoefte aan 'n effektiewe bemarkingsstrategie om 'n globale speler te word.

M.Phil. (Economics)
The study of certain minerals and their relationship to economic indicators requires not only research to establish the economic significance of these commodities, but also the use of statistical techniques to place the data in context by analogy with cyclical events and changing economic circumstances. It is inevitable that a great deal of information will be generated, and that extensive use must be made of the computer throughout the work. The approach used involves the extensive use of graphical and statistical methods to demonstrate the market relationships with time and with selected economic indicators, of six non-ferrous minerals, lead, nickel, tin, copper, aluminium and zinc. These minerals were selected because they represent a good cross-section of the metals that find wide applications in industry, and are economically important. Comparative analyses are made of South Africa as a major producer and exporter of minerals, and of this country's main trading partners, West Germany, Japan and the USA, the major consumers and importers of minerals in the Western World. The statistical information for this study covers a 30 year period, namely 1953 to 1982, and is examined on the premise that general economic variables are causal factors in determining the cyclical behaviour of the market for minerals. Therefore it is obligatory to first examine and explain the nature of business and market cycles and events in the Republic of South Africa, the USA, West Germany, and Japan, and then to relate these to the supply and consumption of the minerals concerned. The relationships between production of minerals for use as raw materials, the production of refined mineral products and the consumption, prices, and stocks of these commodities are explored, and the behaviour of these parameters is explained by reference to familiar and well-used economic indicators such as the Gross National Product (GNP) and the Consumer Price Index(CPI). Subtleties in the relationships between the selected minerals and economic indicators are presented. Two.. fundamental approaches, graphical and statistical, are used in the formal analysis of the problem of quantifcation of the significance of minerals as economic indicators. Simultaneous enhancement, both graphically and statistically, between the parameters has important implications regarding the conclusions drawn in this thesis. A central issue is the statistical evaluation of all the possible combinations of the selected minerals and economic indicators, based on correlation coefficients. Promising results are classified on the basis of high levels of correlation between the various parameters. The consistency with which a mineral achieves high correlation coefficients is defined by a scoring system, whereby sequences of correlation coefficient values are totalled and averaged. Cause and effect cannot simply be assumed, nor can it be proved by statistics. However, statistical verification procedures provide a great deal of assistance in the interpretation of correlation coefficients. The results obtained from the statistical analysis show that some mineral commodities are more closely linked to overall economic conditions than others. These are aluminium, copper and lead...

More than half a century after the liberation of the majority of African countries, Africa is facing major socio-economic challenges including unemployment, slow economic growth and inequality. With waves of violent service delivery protests over the last few years throughout South Africa, it is now more than ever vital to identify the key challenges to development and the ways to overcome these trials. The importance of plans for development, and that reliable data plays an essential role in development have been wildly discussed, especially as the legitimacy and reliability of plans are highly dependent upon the quality of the data utilised. Even though data plays such a significant role in development, quality up to date data is expensive, difficult to obtain and in many instances not available. Furthermore, South Africa and many developing countries do not have the luxury of such data, nor the skills and resources to develop high quality statistics on a regular basis. In the light of the importance of accurate up-to-date data for planning and the lack of the aforementioned data in South Africa, the dissertation explores means of ‘accessing’ high quality up-to-date data by the use of ‘proxy indicators’. The dissertation seeks to explore whether it would be possible to use proxy indicators to measure local economic conditions and to identify a set of proxy indicators that accurately portray the economy. The study commences with an analysis on the relationship between a number of proxy indicators and the national economy in order to identify a set of proxy indicators that accurately portrays the economy where after the accurate indicators is empirically tested to that of the local economy in three study areas. The study established that six proxy indicators can be used to measure the local economy in South Africa. These are the (1) number of middle class residential properties sold, (2) growth in residential building activity, (3) retail sales of durable goods including business profit, (4) hardware sales including business profit, (5) volume of sales of spare parts for vehicles and (6) fuel consumption. Apart from the fact that the indicators mirror the economy to a high degree, a number of trends with regards to the dynamics of the relationship between the indicator and the economy were revealed. The study demonstrated that there is merit in further studies regarding the use of proxy indicators in planning
Dissertation (MTRP)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
gm2014
Town and Regional Planning
unrestricted

This study aims to develop a robust methodology for measuring the performance of equity-share schemes in South African agriculture. Equity-share schemes are privately owned farming operations that are generally restructured as companies with the original owner and the farmworkers as shareholders. Several studies have investigated various aspects of the performance of these schemes but no single study has yet measured their performance using a comprehensive and objective set of criteria. Four categories of criteria are proposed: poverty alleviation; empowerment and participation; institutional arrangements and governance; and financial performance. This study does not aim to assess the performance of existing equity-share schemes rather a methodology for the four criteria based on empirical evidence gathered in 2004 from a land reform project in the Midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and seven established equity-share schemes in the Western Cape. Poverty alleviation is measured using a transition matrix of households grouped by four different symptoms of poverty: current income, wealth, health and a principal component index of housing quality based on building materials, access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation. Eight. categories of indicators are recommended for empowerment and participation: control and ownership; skills transfer; understanding of the structure of the scheme; information; outcomes; trust; outreach; and participation. A scorecard applying norms based on empirical evidence gathered at equity-share schemes in the Western Cape is used to assess the indicators. A scorecard approach is also applied to institutional arrangements and governance, which are measured using three categories of indicators: accountability, transparency and property rights. Recognised indicators ;of financial performance are applied to balance sheet and income statement data provided by four of the seven equity-share schemes in the Western Cape. This analysis highlights problems with several of the conventional ratios used to measure the profitability, solvency and growth of recently restructured farming enterprises whose 'empowerment' status attracts exceptionally high levels of debt capital to finance long-term investments. To avoid these problems it is recommended that, for equity-share schemes, profitability should be measured by the return on assets or dividend return; solvency by the debt/asset ratio; liquidity by cash flow projections; growth by changes in the (estimated) real. value of shares; and workers' total returns by changes in the sum of the real wage bill, capital gains, dividends, interest and other benefits accruing to workers in aggregate. The proposed performance measures are relevant, manageable in number and have feasible norms based on empirical evidence. These indicators and their norms need to be tested on a wider scale and over time. Further research should be undertaken to estimate weights for the empowerment and institutional indicators.
Thesis (M.Sc.Agric.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2004.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. 30 October 2014.
The reporting of non-financial data has steadily increased over the past three decades and there is evidence that including social and environmental indicators in the annual report is correlated with improved environmental performance of listed companies. The annual reports of a selection of 82 JSE-listed companies, including the full JSE Top 40, were analysed for mentions of the natural environment for the reporting periods of 2010 and 2012. The introduction of the King III principles by the JSE occurred between these two periods, providing an opportunity to assess the impacts that this move had on annual reporting. Attention was paid to mentions in the leadership reviews by the Chairmen and the CEOs, presence of empirical environmental data, environmental KPIs and the manner in which these data were presented and discussed in the report. In addition, a survey asking qualitative details of company reporting policy was conducted among the staff members responsible for environmental reporting of these companies. The standard and sophistication of environmental reporting varied widely across the sample, with Top 40 companies generally reporting better than non-Top 40 companies. Primary industries were more likely to provide empirical data than service industries and only agricultural industries appeared concerned with the manner in which changes in the natural environment could affect their business. There remains a wide variation in the type and detail of environmental reporting across the sample with very little evidence that the data, as reported, play a meaningful role in the decisions of either management or investors.

ABI has a sophisticated and effective distribution fleet which delivers canned and bottled non alcoholic beverages to 12000 wholesale and retail outlets in the Durban Metropole and to 46000 outlets nationally. Delivery is normally executed once per week, 48 hours after a separate order is taken by an account manager. In the more rural or "emerging market" areas traditional retail outlets such as supermarkets and superettes are scarce and reliance is made on spaza and house shops. Cash flow and storage space is limited. The sales and distribution calls are expensive, relative to the size order that the spaza would place. Spaza shop owners rely on distributors or collect from wholesalers. These outlets often run out of stock. Sales revenue is thus not maximized. Outlet development is marginal. The writer embarked on a research project to develop a sustainable and cost effective Sales and Distribution model in order to address these constraints in the Emerging Market territories of ABI Durban. Traditional theory turns to channel distribution as a means to effectively reaching an entire retail market. Levels are thus added to the distribution channel. The research however showed that service levels are sometimes compromised. The model that was developed returns ABI to DSD (direct service delivery) via specially designed vehicles and combines the function of "preseller" and "delivery merchandiser" on a dedicated route. Although a marginal increase in cost per case has been experienced, deliveries are direct to store, at least twice per week. Sales growth in these routes have been in excess of 85% while the total Umlazi area grows at 13%. Customer service levels, as surveyed, are exceptional. Although the model was specifically designed by ABI Durban for use in Durban, the concept has been adopted as a best practice and is being "rolled out" across the business. By the end of 2005, 10% of ABl's fleet nationally will function as MOTD (Merchandiser Order Taker Driver) routes. Additional vehicles have been ordered for delivery during the period July 2005 to September 2005 in order for this to be achieved. This model has assisted ABI in achieving its goal of maximizing DSD and lifting service levels to its customers (retailers). Revenue has increased significantly along with volume in these areas. Invariably MOTD acts as a significant barrier to competitor entry in those geographic areas where it is utilized. The Merchandiser Order Taker Driver (MOTD) model is successful and has potential for wider use, even in more developed markets.
Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.

The aim of this study was to engage small-scale timber growers in the development of national principles, criteria, indicators and standards (PCI&S) for sustainable forest management (SFM) in South Africa (SA). To ensure effective participation of small-scale timber growers in the development PCI&S, an overview of sustainable and small-scale forestry was explored. Furthermore, because of the importance of globalisation on the SFM concept, its conceptual framework and small-scale forestry development in relation to SFM were investigated. Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) methods, and PCI&S evaluation and development processes were used to engage small-scale timber growers by identifying and integrating their perceptions into the process of SFM standards development. These small-scale timber growers' perceptions focused on social, economic, environment and policy issues. The stUdy indicates that the views of small-scale timber growers regarding SFM do not vary significantly from those held globally. However, they demonstrate that local conditions determined issues of relevance and importance to this specific group. The results further support the view that there is value in combining both top-down and bottom-up approaches in developing an appropriate set of PCI&S. This is critical because the perceptions of small-scale timber growers for SFM are scale sensitive. Finally, the results supported the view that there is a need to give attention to and strengthen socio-economic issues versus those of the physical environment to improve inequalities of the past, and influence future decisions.
Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

Masters in Public Administration - MPA
The Namibian Government has recently embarked on the formulation of an empowerment strategy similar to South Africa’s Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) policy - the Transformation of Economic and Social Empowerment Framework (TESEF) for Namibia. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) more specifically, results-based M&E has also recently emerged worldwide as an important tool in public sector management reform and is focused on the attainment of outcomes and development results at project, programme and policy levels. The problem being investigated in this study concerns the shortage of evidence in BBBEE policy and legislative documentation of a coherent M&E framework inclusive of a set of indicators that can measure BBBEE progress against its set objectives and anticipated outcomes.Through an investigation on the state of an M&E framework for BBBEE and South Africa’s good experiences regarding the development of a Government-wide (including all sectors) coherent M&E system a number of lessons of experience have been drawn for the anticipated implementation and M&E framework of TESEF and the establishment of a Government-wide M&E system in Namibia.The study reveals that there is currently (May 2009) no comprehensive M&E framework inclusive of set of indicators in effect to measure BBBEE progress towards its objectives and anticipated outcomes. The suitability of available indicators to measure BBBEE derived from the South African Development Indicator framework (SADI) and the Compendium of Indicators for the Provincial Growth and Development Strategy (CIPGDS) of the Western Cape are assessed and the potential for indicator development has been explored. Through an appropriate methodology a comprehensive set of indicators that address the objectives and anticipated outcomes of BBBEE are developed and suggested in this study.The study found that while Namibia sees herself in the final phase of TESEF formulation with the release of the latest TESEF Draft Strategy Document (April 2008) the country also sets out plans in its National Development Plan (NDP3) for period 2007/08 –2011/12 for the establishment and institutionalisation of a government-wide M&E system dedicated to the results-based M&E approach. The study finds valuable lessons for Namibia in South Africa’s Government-wide M&E (GWM&E) system drawn from South Africa’s development of: a Policy Framework for GWM&E system; a comprehensive set of national development indicators across prioritised clusters (the South African Development Indicator framework); and the established public sector capacity building and M&E support organs such as the Public Administration Leadership and Management Academy (PALAMA) formerly known the South African Management Development Institute (SAMDI) and the South African Monitoring and Evaluation Association (SAMEA).Apart from the potential indicators to measure BBBEE developed as part of the study’s recommendations, the study also recommends that an M&E framework for TESEF is developed upon finalization of the policy’s objectives and anticipated outcomes and that this framework is included in the final TESEF design to guide its effective implementation.

The need for public participation in the development of policies, programmes or actions has been widely accepted by both government and private sectors because of the benefits of such involvement. Involving the public in the development of any policy, programme or action is, however, a daunting task. Public involvement in the development of a policy or action often leads to protest, legal litigation, criticism and delay in carrying out the project. The main objectives of this research are to examine the process of public participation in the Gautrain project and to interrogate how public involvement in the decision-making processes of environmental concerns can be improved. A quantitative study was conducted to describe and explore the process of public participation in the Gautrain environmental impact assessment procedure. The purposive sampling method was used. Thereafter, the data generated was analysed using statistical tools such as charts, tables and the Wilcoxon Mann Whitney U test to examine the similarities and differences in the response patterns of the public and the project proponent. Cronbach alpha statistical methodology was also used to test the reliability of the measurement. The findings are discussed in relation to the objectives of the study and research hypotheses. The results indicate that (1) the public were not involved early enough during the project planning and design phases; (2) adequate information was not provided to the public; and (3) public input does not have much impact on decisionmaking processes. The study does, however, indicate that the process has enhanced the participants’ learning and that the process of participation has improved in recent time as compared to the 2002-2003 periods. The study concludes by providing relevant solutions and recommendations.
Environmental Sciences
M. Sc. (Environmental Management)

The research was undertaken to investigate the impact of the Tshivhase Tea Estate on the space economy of Venda, the people and area ofMapate, and Duthuni, among whom the Tea Estate is established. The approach is based on principles. Principles of development theory are combined with appropriate spatial models. The development reality of Venda, together with many other development projects are analysed. Does the tea estate address the rural poverty problem? Findings are presented from a case study of Tshivhase and this proved the lack of growth and development impulses to alleviate the poverty of the rural people among whom it is located. Development is considered in terms of its possible simultaneous diffusion of economic activity and modernisation in all four dimensions of the spatial system : political, socio-cultural, economic and physical.
Department of Geography
M.A. (Geography)

Rural development is a key policy area in developing countries. Its basic premise boils down to improving the economic well-being and quality of life of rural people. Best practices regarding rural development in developing countries, including Benin, China, Korea and Rwanda, that are known to have been relatively successful in reducing poverty and diversifying the rural economy showed that strong governance, institutional capabilities, active rural communities, and most importantly funding, are all essential for successful rural development. Moreover, land reform and investment in agriculture, infrastructure, education and health play a crucial role in the early stages of rural development. The aim of this study was to examine the concept of rural development as well as policy measures and best practices relating to rural development in order to formulate a rural development strategy for the rural areas of Limpopo Province. To achieve its research objectives, the study used a qualitative research method and secondary data analysis. Before 1995, rural development in South Africa was neglected, resulting in underdevelopment and impoverishment in rural areas. Post-1994, policies for rural development were adopted by the democratic government to improve the economic well-being of people living in rural communities. However, this had thus far limited success as high levels of poverty and inequalities in rural areas still prevails. Those highly affected were rural people in Limpopo Province. In 2018, Limpopo was the most predominantly rural province in South Africa, with over 80% of the population living in rural areas. The study classified Limpopo’s local municipalities into three types of areas, namely predominantly rural area (a local municipality is classified as predominantly rural area if the share of rural population in the local municipal area is above 50%), significantly rural area (that is, a local municipality where the share of rural population in the local area represents between 15% and 49% of the local area’s total population), and predominantly urban area (that is, a local municipality where the share of rural population in the local area is below 15%). Out of 25 local municipalities in Limpopo, 19 were predominantly rural areas, five were significantly rural areas and one was predominantly urban area. Findings show that, in rural areas of Limpopo, there was the prevalence of lower-wage jobs, lower educational attainment, a higher share of low-income households, and more than half of the population depended on government's social grants (including old age grant) and remittances as their income sources. Analysis indicates that educational attainment, household income levels, consumption expenditure and investment tend to be relatively lower, while the unemployment rate is higher, in predominantly rural areas. The economic structure is changing as the share of the primary sector in total Gross Value Added (GVA) is slowly declining, while that of the tertiary sector is gradually increasing. Regarding the contributions to the GVA and employment by sector in predominantly rural areas, agriculture contributed less than 3% to the total GVA, yet it is one of the top employers, contributing 13% of employment. Although mining contributed the most (23,7%) to the total GVA, it only employed 4% of the workforce. To address challenges in rural areas, a rural development strategy for Limpopo Province should contain policy tools that will promote infrastructure development for better access to education, communication, transport, safe water and other basic facilities. It should also encourage capital formation in rural enterprises; promote multi-sectoral development involving reviving agriculture, developing tourism and manufacturing sectors; and promote agro-processing and downstream mineral beneficiation; improve support and access to funding for rural enterprises; and promote the development of the green economy to create decent job opportunities. Access to land and land tenure security are a necessity to stimulate investment needed to accelerate rural development.
Economics
M. Com. (Economics)

The concept of population ageing is a development issue that has received much attention due to the demographic transition that is occurring globally, marked by declining levels of fertility and mortality. Therefore, the implications of population ageing for older persons within the context of Social Development was examined from the perspective of government and non government officials. The study was confined to older persons and the policies and programmes implemented by the Department of Social Development. The study employed an exploratory research design within a qualitative paradigm. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were distributed to officials in the nine provinces. Thirty six questionnaires were received and qualitative methods of data analysis were used to analyse and interpret the data. The main finding of the study is that there is congruence in what government officials and the non government officials view as implications for older persons. Central to this is that the issue of ageing does not receive attention on the agenda of government. The top five priorities for older persons are healthy ageing, economic security, community/home based care services for older persons, having care and support systems for older persons and an improved quality of life/poverty alleviation. Based on the demographic determinants of population ageing, the findings are that there will be an increased demand for services for older persons which might place a strain on the social assistance and health care programmes. The issue of ageing was viewed positively as an opportunity by government officials and pessimistically as a challenge by NGO’s. The most common problems in old age is a reliance on the younger generation and or the state for their care and support, abuse, high levels of illiteracy and the burden of care for their children and grandchildren. The future older person is likely to be in better health and better educated than the older person of today if the necessary public investments are made now in these areas. The study makes recommendations for the adoption of a South African plan of action on ageing, inter-sectoral budgeting, development of specialised programmes, review of current policies and legislation for older persons, strengthening the partnership with the NGO sector and facilitating ageing mainstreaming within government programmes.
Sociology
M.A. (Social Development)

Rural development is a key policy area in developing countries. Its basic premise boils down to improving the economic well-being and quality of life of rural people. Best practices regarding rural development in developing countries, including Benin, China, Korea and Rwanda, that are known to have been relatively successful in reducing poverty and diversifying the rural economy showed that strong governance, institutional capabilities, active rural communities, and most importantly funding, are all essential for successful rural development. Moreover, land reform and investment in agriculture, infrastructure, education and health play a crucial role in the early stages of rural development. The aim of this study was to examine the concept of rural development as well as policy measures and best practices relating to rural development in order to formulate a rural development strategy for the rural areas of Limpopo Province. To achieve its research objectives, the study used a qualitative research method and secondary data analysis. Before 1995, rural development in South Africa was neglected, resulting in underdevelopment and impoverishment in rural areas. Post-1994, policies for rural development were adopted by the democratic government to improve the economic well-being of people living in rural communities. However, this had thus far limited success as high levels of poverty and inequalities in rural areas still prevails. Those highly affected were rural people in Limpopo Province. In 2018, Limpopo was the most predominantly rural province in South Africa, with over 80% of the population living in rural areas. The study classified Limpopo’s local municipalities into three types of areas, namely predominantly rural area (a local municipality is classified as predominantly rural area if the share of rural population in the local municipal area is above 50%), significantly rural area (that is, a local municipality where the share of rural population in the local area represents between 15% and 49% of the local area’s total population), and predominantly urban area (that is, a local municipality where the share of rural population in the local area is below 15%). Out of 25 local municipalities in Limpopo, 19 were predominantly rural areas, five were significantly rural areas and one was predominantly urban area. Findings show that, in rural areas of Limpopo, there was the prevalence of lower-wage jobs, lower educational attainment, a higher share of low-income households, and more than half of the population depended on government's social grants (including old age grant) and remittances as their income sources. Analysis indicates that educational attainment, household income levels, consumption expenditure and investment tend to be relatively lower, while the unemployment rate is higher, in predominantly rural areas. The economic structure is changing as the share of the primary sector in total Gross Value Added (GVA) is slowly declining, while that of the tertiary sector is gradually increasing. Regarding the contributions to the GVA and employment by sector in predominantly rural areas, agriculture contributed less than 3% to the total GVA, yet it is one of the top employers, contributing 13% of employment. Although mining contributed the most (23,7%) to the total GVA, it only employed 4% of the workforce. To address challenges in rural areas, a rural development strategy for Limpopo Province should contain policy tools that will promote infrastructure development for better access to education, communication, transport, safe water and other basic facilities. It should also encourage capital formation in rural enterprises; promote multi-sectoral development involving reviving agriculture, developing tourism and manufacturing sectors; and promote agro-processing and downstream mineral beneficiation; improve support and access to funding for rural enterprises; and promote the development of the green economy to create decent job opportunities. Access to land and land tenure security are a necessity to stimulate investment needed to accelerate rural development.
Economics
M. Com. (Economics)

ABSTRACT Risk to small property investors manifests in the cash flow of the investment and it should thus also be managed in the cash flow. From a practical point of view it is logical that that risk management strategies be incorporated into a property investment at the inception stage of the investment. The cash flow of a property thus needs to include applicable risk management strategies as part of the feasibility study of the investment. The chief manner in which small property investors deal with risk in an investment, is by making conservative allowances in the projected cash flow of the investment. Internal risk is thus managed to a degree, but the small investor is still vulnerable to market risk which originates from outside the investment. Market risk however, is relatively successfully managed by the Institutional Sector of the property market through the application of Modern Portfolio Theory and the use of the portfolio as a vehicle to diversify internal risk. The portfolio vehicle also allows the quantification of external- or market risk, thus creating the opportunity for effective management. It is however believed that the same principles of Modern Portfolio Theory as applied in the institutional sector of the property market, may be applicable to small direct property investments, to formulate an investment risk management strategy, which is embedded in the conceptual stages of the investment and thus reduce the reliance on often, ineffective, active management and remedial strategies during the holding period. The main obstacle however, is that the application of Modern Portfolio Theory requires an industry bench mark or index, which is representative of the market and against which performance may be measured measured. The application of such an index to the small direct property investment is however extremely limited due to a difference between the scale at which small investments function and the scale of the market that an index represents. A substitute for a benchmark to act as a market indicator is thus required, which must be reflective of the market within which the small investment operates. This report investigates the possibility of deriving an investment-specific benchmark or a hypothetical return curve, based on the relationships that exist between the macro-economy and the property market. If it is indeed possible to establish the credibility of such an alternative market indicator, it would therefore become possible for small property investors to apply the risk management principles inherent to portfolio investing and incorporate these principles in the feasibility cash flows of small direct property investments.

M.Comm.
This study uses annual data for five SACU members over the period 1991-2005 to investigate the evidence for convergence in macroeconomic variables. Panel unit root test as an econometric tool is utilised together with other several approaches for this analysis. The results show significant evidence that the SACU countries have reached a reasonable level of convergence on specific macroeconomic variables. This can be attributed to common economic policies and institutional features. It is also evident that the countries that are members of the CMA show a dramatically higher convergence rate. As far as monetary policy is concerned, a high degree of convergence has been achieved in SACU. However, the results show no convergence on fiscal policies. This could be attributed to data constraint on debt to GDP which was used as a proxy for fiscal policy.

Health related absenteeism was identified as a problem in the schools in the Molopo region, needing a multi-disciplinary approach which included the parents. A conceptual framework on absenteeism was used as a guideline for the descriptive research design. Using a convenience sampling technique 426 absentees, 22 teachers and 2 school nurses filled in three separate questionnaires in ten schools selected to determine the extent of absenteeism due to health related and other problems, the control measures taken and the awareness of school personnel. Health problems were identified as the main reasons for absenteeism. Inadequate communication between the schools and parents as well as lack of guidelines on the control of absenteeism, were other problems identified. Recommendations made related to the provision of school health services that promote the health status of the pupils based on Primary Health Care principles, parental involvement in school health matters and the formulation of policies aimed at controlling absenteeism in schools.
Health Sciences
M.A. (Nursing Science)

The phenomenal growth of residential property prices when compared to other asset classes has resulted in property prices being the subject of significant debate in South Africa in the recent past. The reasons for the price increases are the subject of as much debate and uncertainty. This research attempts to determine whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the economic indicators selected and residential property prices, which could provide some indication of the factors influencing residential property prices in South Africa. The economic indicators selected were interest rates, real gross domestic product, average income, bond affordability levels, rand to US dollar exchange rates and inflation. Residential property prices in South Africa were measured using two data bases, the ABSA database, which comprised average residential property prices split into affordable, middle and luxury segments, as well as the Standard Bank database comprising median residential property prices in South Africa. The sample period was determined by reference to the period when data in respect of all the variables was available. Autocorrelation was removed from the data and thereafter a stepwise regression was performed to determine which economic indicators had a statistically significant relationship to each category of residential property price. It was found that quarterly lagged disposable income per capita (average income) had a statistically significant relationship to affordable and luxury property segments, as well as the median property prices. No economic indicator was found to have a statistically significant relationship to middle segment property prices.
Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010.
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
unrestricted

The connection between water and human wellbeing is increasingly causing concern about the implications of water scarcity on poverty. The primary fear is that water scarcity may not only worsen poverty, but may also undermine efforts to alleviate poverty and food insecurity. A review of literature revealed that the relationship between water scarcity and poverty is a complex one, with water scarcity being both a cause and consequence of poverty. Furthermore, water scarcity is multidimensional, which makes it difficult to define, while it can also vary considerably, both temporally and spatially. Finally, the relationship between water scarcity and poverty is a difficult one to quantify. Within the context of water scarcity, indicators are viewed by many development analysts as appropriate tools for informing and orienting policy-making, for comparing situations and for measuring performance. However, simplistic traditional indicators cannot capture the complexity of the water-poverty link; hence a proliferation of more sophisticated indicators and indices since the early 1990s. The Water Poverty Index (WPI), one of these new indices, assesses water scarcity holistically. Water poverty derives from the conceptualisation of this index which relates dimensions of poverty to access to water for domestic and productive use. However, the WPI has not been applied extensively at meso-catchment scale, the scale at which water resources managers operate. In South Africa, the Thukela Catchment -in the province of KwaZulu-Natal presents a unique opportunity to assess the WPI at this scale. The Thukela is a diverse catchment with respect to physiography, climate and (by extension) natural vegetation, land use, demography, culture and economy. While parts of the catchment are suitable for intensive agricultural production and others are thriving economic centres, a large percentage of the population in the catchment lives in poverty in high risk ecosystems, with their vulnerability exacerbated by policies of the erstwhile apartheid government. Many rural communities, a high percentage of which occupy these naturally harsh areas, have low skills levels, with a high proportion of unemployed people, low or no income and low services delivery. Infrastructural development, which relates to municipal service delivery, is often made prohibitively expensive by the rugged terrain in which many people live. As in other catchments in South Africa, the Thukela is affected by policies and initiatives aimed at accomplishing the objectives of post-1994 legislation such as the South Africa Constitution and the National Water Act. The potential of the WPI to assess the impacts of these initiatives on human wellbeing and to inform decision .making in the Thukela catchment was investigated. An analysis of a 46 year long series of monthly summations of daily values of streamflows output by the ACRU agrohydrological simulation model has shown that the Thukela, in its entirety , is a water-rich catchment. The reliability of the streamflows, which has implications for communities who collect water directly from 1 streams, is high along main channels but can be considerably less along low order tributaries of the main streams. The flow reliability along the small tributaries is less in winter than in summer. A high percentage of the catchment's population, in addition to being poor and not having access to municipal services, live near, and rely on, the small tributaries for their water supplies. Admittedly, this analysis addresses only one dimension of water poverty, viz. physical water shortage. Nevertheless, the study revealed that despite the Thukela's being a water-rich catchment, many communities are still water stressed. A more holistic characterisation of the water scarcity situation in the Thukela catchment was achieved using the WPI. A review of possible information sources for computing the WPI in South Africa found that many monitoring programmes, information systems and databases are either in existence and are active, or being restructured, or are under different stages of development. If and when they are all fully functional , they should be able to support national assessments of the WPI at meso-scale without the need to collect additional information. A combination of information from some of the active databases and secondary data from other local studies was used to compute the WPI in the Thukela catchment. The assessment uncovered the following: • There is an apparent association between water poverty and socio-economic disadvantage in the Thukela catchment. • There was an improvement in the water poverty situation in most parts of the Thukela catchment between 1996 and 2001, although the degree of improvement varied from subcatchment to subcatchment. Climate change, if it manifests itself by higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, will most likely worsen water poverty throughout the Thukela catchment, with the subcatchments in which many of the poor communities are located being more likely to experience the most severe impacts as the coping capacities of those communities are already strained under current climatic conditions. The findings of this study illustrate the potential of WPI as a tool for informing decision making and policy evaluation at the meso-catchment scale at which many water-related decisions are made.
Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.

A 50% research report to be submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of: MASTER OF COMMERCE (FINANCE) UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND
Several studies have assessed the forward-looking characteristic of share prices and confirmed their resultant capability as leading indicators of economic activity, especially in advanced economies. Contention however exists when evaluating the role of stock markets as leading indicators for less developed countries. This study examines the validity of the stock market as a leading indicator of economic activity in South Africa using quarterly time-series data for the period January 1992 to June 2014. Causality and cointegration between the JSE All Share Index against Real GDP and Real Industrial Production is evaluated by employing Granger-causality tests and the Johansen cointegration procedure. The empirical investigation indicates that unidirectional causality exists between the nominal and real stock indices and economic activity in South Africa, and confirms a long-run relationship between the JSE and GDP and Industrial Production. Therefore, similar to the study by Auret and Golding (2012), in a South African context, the stock market is in fact a leading indicator of economic activity.
MT2017

This paper investigates the Baltic Dry Index; an often misunderstood index, which tracks the cost of shipping dry bulk cargo globally. The research is based on the hypothesis that movements in the Baltic Dry Index price are driven largely by changes in the underlying demand for goods which are consumed globally. Accordingly, this paper aims to investigate whether changes in the Baltic Dry Index price may be used to predict future economic movements in a South African context. In this regard, the paper first conducts a thorough synthesis of the available literature, in order to formulate the conclusion that the Baltic Dry Index price is driven by a multitude of variables, including the global demand for goods, the global supply of ships, the laycan period, bunker prices, global piracy, global winter severity, as well as the inclusion of a cyclical component. The global demand for goods is concluded to be chief among these. Based on these findings, the paper then conducts empirical testing on the usefulness of the BDI in a South African context, and concludes that the Baltic Dry Index is useful when used as a leading economic indicator in South African, especially when used in order to predict long-term economic movements, across a period of 3 – 4.5 years. Finally, strong evidence is found to support the existence of a relationship between the BDI and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Mining Index, although further investigation is required in order to form a definitive conclusion in this regard.

This research was conducted to determine whether the intrinsic share values that are obtained using the EVA valuation model are an indicator of share prices as quoted on the JSE Securities Exchange. The research did not differentiated between companies that have implemented EVA in South Africa and those that have not. The research was conducted by performing EVA intrinsic share price calculations for 43 companies listed on the JSE Securities Exchange. These EVA share prices were correlated to the actual share price as quoted on the JSE Securities Exchange, for the current and lagged periods of one and two years. The resultant correlation coefficients were tested for significance at the 5% level. The results show that there is no statistically significant correlation between the EVA intrinsic share values and the share price as quoted on the JSE in both the same and lagged periods. Hence we cannot conclude that EVA is an indicator of share price.
Thesis(MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.