Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Economic change'

xiii, 124 p. : ill. (some col.)
This dissertation emphasizes three aspects of structural change in economic development. Structural change is the process by which the distribution of economic output shifts from one sector to another and is crucial to understanding overall economic growth. The first chapter demonstrates that property rights and the relative value of land in rural credit markets have significant implications for the rate and level of economic development. When borrowers have little net worth, access to credit is limited and the transition from agriculture to industry proceeds at a slower rate. A quantitative model provides estimates of the welfare cost of such frictions. The second chapter argues that differential costs of technology adoption across developing countries can explain the failure of some import-substitution strategies. An analytical model demonstrates the importance of such adoption costs, and an empirical section finds evidence in support of it. The primary result is that import-substituting policies aimed at rapid industrialization may in fact inhibit economic growth, explaining why some countries have experienced lower rates of economic development. The third chapter uses a robust econometric procedure to estimate sector-specific productivity growth for a sample of OECD countries. It finds that the sources of productivity growth vary widely across countries. Productivity growth is not concentrated in industrial sectors alone but can also result from advances in service sectors.
Committee in charge: Dr. Shankha Chakraborty, Chair; Dr. Chris Ellis, Member; Dr. Bruce Blonigen, Member; Dr. Jean Stockard, Outside Member

Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.

Il y a quatre chapitres dans cette thèse.Dans le premier chapitre, nous analysons les intéractions entre le marché interbancaire et le risque de défaut souverain dans un modèle d’équilibre général à deux pays, en focalisant sur la transmission de la crise financière récente et la politique monétaire non conventionnelle.Dans le deuxième chapitre, les effets de la dévaluation fiscale sur les indicateurs macroéconomiques et le bien être sont analysés en utilisant un modèle à deux pays en union monétaire o`u les variétés de biens et le commerce sont endogènes.Dans le troisième chapitre, l’impact du facteur démographique sur la croissance du secteur des services à long terme est mis en exergue.Dans le quatrième chapitre, on étudie les effets de la mobilité des travailleurs et de la mobilité du capital dans une union monétaire
This thesis studies challenges for modern developped economies, including the structural change toward services, population ageing, weak labor mobility in the EMU and unconventional monetary policies after the 2008 financial crisis. The manuscript is divided into four chapters.In the first chapter, we analyze the interaction between interbank markets and default risk using a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, with a focus on the transmission of the recent financial crisis and unconventional monetary policies.In the second chapter, we investigate the effects of fiscal devaluations on key macroeconomic aggregates and welfare using a two-country monetary-union model with endogenous varieties and endogenous tradability.In the third chapter, we study the impact of demographic factor and the growth of service sector by using a multi-sectoral OLG model, and effectuate counterfactual experiments in which the annual growth rate of young generation is ±1pp than the actual growth rate.In the fourth chapter, we study the potential interactions between financial integration and labor mobility in a currency union facing asymmetric shocks, and simulate the impacts of 2008 financial crisis under different mobility costs

Extreme weather events, armed conflicts and migration are considered as the most likely, and most substantial, risk factors of 2015, 2016 and 2017 in the latest Global Risk Report by World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum, 2017). That these factors are in turn influenced by climatic conditions is also a well-documented consensus. As global warming become an unescapable reality (IPCC, 2014), my thesis attempts to make a contribution to understanding of its consequences by quantifying the magnitude and significance of the influence of climatic factors on conflict and migration. An overview of the thesis is provided in the first chapter. The main aim of the second chapter is to provide a comprehensive empirical study of the impact of climatic factors on the onset of internal armed conflicts. There is no firm consensus in the literature regarding a coherent set of factors that cause armed conflicts. In particular, while there are new studies emerging which examine this issue, conclusions about the role of climatic factors remain rather ambiguous. The contribution of this chapter is to carry out a systematic econometric study of the role of variables commonly used in the literature in order to establish a robust empirical specification which could aid quantifying the contribution of climatic factors. We find that (i) climate warming is instrumental in raising the probability of onset of armed conflicts, and (ii) there is an interdependency in the way temperature and precipitation affect the onset of conflicts: dryness (low precipitation) increases the effect of temperature growth. High levels of political and economic development are widely regarded as important factors that contribute to sustained civil peace. However, repeated occurrences of conflicts in democratic regimes and their complete absence in some rich countries with non-democratic regimes are counter examples that cannot be simply regarded as exceptions. Given this anomaly, the third chapter examines whether the influence of development and democracy are contingent on each other. Using a robust empirical specification that takes account of climatic factors, we find that economic development per se reduces the probability of conflicts but its impact is contingent on the extent of political development and that the latter might in fact reverse the overall impact of former. Demographic projections suggest that climate change will be responsible for a large displacement of population worldwide (Gemenne et al., 2012). Evidence shows that a major part of such displacements primarily take place within national borders in the first instance. The fourth chapter investigates the nature of internal migration within Iran which has experienced substantial internal migration and is also subject to significant climatic variations. We find that even though climatic variables are not the leading factors of internal migration in Iran, their role, especially as push factors, is eminent: It appears people tend to leave warmer and/or drier regions, and select nearby destinations which offer better economic opportunities and welfare provision.

The objective of the research programme that forms the basis of this thesis was to investigate the factors which influence relative price change both in terms of levels of price change within industries and, from the perspective of the individual business, the size and direction of relative price change. In addition, as a preliminary step in the development of a further research area, the impact of changes in relative price on the major measures of business performance i.e. return on investment change and market share change are investigated. A model of relative price change is advanced involving market structure factors, product factors, cost factors and non-price marketing decision variables. Hypotheses in the industry context consider the magnitude of relative price change and use absolute measures of relative price change as dependent variables. In the individual business context hypotheses consider both magnitude and direction of relative price change. Hypotheses are tested on the Profit Impact of Marketing Strategies data base of the Strategic Planning Institute. The methodology employed is multiple regression analysis and cross-tabulation. A range of statistical tests is put forward to assess model validity, the strength of hypothesised relationships and the relative importance of explanatory variables. The results show initial relative price dispersion, changes in relative direct costs, changes in relative product quality and entry VI of new competitors to be most important in explaining the variation of the magnitude of relative price changes within industries. For the individual business relative price change, including both magnitude and direction of change, emerges as a function of initial relative price, relative direct cost change and initial relative cost position together with cross-product terms in relative price and relative cost. The level of relative advertising expenditure and relative product quality change also emerge as substantial explanatory variables. Significant patterns in the linkage of relative price change to changes in business performance measures emerge and there is evidence of a significant relationship between business performance and relative price change deviation from the expected level.

This thesis is concerned with the daily dynamics of price change and trading volume in a speculative market. The first part examines the news-driven model of Tauchen and Pitts (1983), and develops this model to the point where it is directly testable. In order to implement the test a new method for creating a price index from futures contracts is proposed. It is found that news effects can explain some but not all of the structure of the daily price/volume relationship. An alternative explanation is presented, in which the model of Tauchen and Pitts is generalized in a non-linear fashion. In the second part of the thesis, the presence of a small amount of positive autocorrelation in daily returns is exploited through the development of a timing rule. This timing rule applies to investors who are committed to a purchase but flexible about the precise timing. The computation of the timing rule is discussed in detail. In practice it is found that this timing rule is unlikely to generate sufficiently large returns to be of interest to investors in a typical stock market, supporting the hypothesis of market efficiency. However, the incorporation of extra information regarding price/volume dynamics, as suggested by the analysis of Part I, might lead to a much improved rule.

Structural change in a two-sector model of the climate and the economy introduces issues concerning substitutability among goods in a two-sector economic growth model where emissions from fossil fuels give rise to a climate externality. Substitution is modeled using a CES-production function where the intermediate inputs differ only in their technologies and the way they are affected by the climate externality. I derive a simple formula for optimal taxes and resource allocation over time and highlight model sensitivity w.r.t the elasticity of substitution and distribution parameters. Energy Balance Climate Models and General Equilibrium Optimal Mitigation Policies  develops a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing across latitudes driven by global fossil fuel use coupled to an economic growth model. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes are not possible or costly, then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-uniform and may be lower at poorer latitudes. Energy Balance Climate Models, Damage Reservoirs and the Time Profile of Climate Change Policy explores optimal mitigation policies through the lens of a latitude dependent energy balance climate model coupled to an economic growth model. We associate the movement of an endogenous polar ice cap with the idea of a damage reservoir being a finite source of climate related damages affecting the economy. The analysis shows that the introduction of damage reservoirs  can generate multiple steady states and Skiba points. Assessing Sustainable Development in a DICE World investigates a method for assessing sustainable development under climate change in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE-2007 model). The analysis shows that the sustainability measure is highly sensitive to the calibration of the inter-temporal elasticity parameter and discount rate of the social welfare function.

The first essay considers the relative effectiveness of government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as channels to allocate resources. I use a catastrophic climate-related shock--Hurricane Mitch--to examine the political economy of these channels of aid distribution at the micro level. I combine extensive data on aid received by Nicaraguan households with data on municipal election outcomes and an exogenous, precipitation-based measure of hurricane impact. I find that the hurricane had long-lasting effects on the aid received by households from both NGOs and the government. In the short term, however, the government did not provide aid according to the objective measure of hurricane damage but instead provided aid along political lines. The second essay presents estimates of a relationship between extreme hot temperatures during gestation and a child's subsequent physical well-being in a sample of children in Peru, thus extending existing evidence constructed from U.S. data. Estimates are constructed using high-resolution gridded climate data and geo-coded household surveys. The results suggest that a period of extreme heat (a month whose average temperature is more than 2 standard deviations above the local average) in the period 1 to 3 months before birth is associated with lower weight at birth and a reduction in height (measured 1 to 59 months after birth) that cannot be fully explained by birth weight. There is no evidence of differential maternal investment, as measured by duration of breastfeeding, according to a child's exposure to extreme heat during gestation. The third essay asks whether improved treatment of HIV/AIDS in Africa can be achieved simply by paying health workers to do more. I present estimates of the impact of financial incentives paid to individual workers at public health facilities in Mozambique. The results suggest that piece-rate incentives increased the delivery of five out of fourteen health services for which treatment effects can be identified, with estimated increases ranging from 34 to 157 percent, depending on the particular service. I find no evidence of a corresponding decrease in the delivery of services that are not financially incentivized, suggesting that there is no "crowding out" of intrinsic motivation.

This thesis is mainly concerned with understanding how large Egyptian enterprises have adapted to the transformations in their economic environments. Particularly, attention is paid to exploring the changes in Egyptian enterprises, in terms of ownership relations, strategic priorities, contractual relations and personnel policies, which have taken place in response to the economic transformations. The data for this research was obtained through personal interviews with semor managers and workers' representatives, in various Egyptian enterprises: SOEs, mostly and fully privatised enterprises and joint venture enterprises. In addition, some policy makers were also interviewed. Case studies of thirteen Egyptian enterprises were undertaken. These were chosen so as to reflect different kinds of ownership and managerial styles. A simple statistical analysis along with qualitative analysis techniques, were applied to analyse the data. The findings of this research show that changes in ownership and control, strategic priorities, contractual relations and personnel policies were not as radical as some observers had expected. The institutional environment, continued state intervention in the enterprises' decision making process, the dominance of the state over the banking sector and key suppliers of electricity, water and oil together with the high level of risk involved in making radical changes in enterprises' activities and technology have limited the extent and effects of changes in the aforementioned dimensions. This research has drawn on earlier work on enterprise change in Hungary and other eastern European economies and contributes, therefore, to the comparative analysis ~ of organisational change in transitional economies

We present a model based on Keynesian aggregate demand and labor productivity growth to study how climate damage affects the long-run evolution of the economy. Climate change induced by greenhouse gas lowers profitability, reducing investment and cutting output in the short and long runs. Short-run employment falls due to deficient demand. In the long run productivity growth is slower, lowering potential income levels. Climate policy can increase incomes and employment in the short and long runs while a continuation of business-as-usual leads to a dystopian income distribution with affluence for few and high levels of unemployment for the rest.
Series: Ecological Economic Papers

The evolutionary economic geography of climate change is concerned with the processes by which the landscapes of greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to climate change are transformed from within over time. Unlike neoclassical economics, evolutionary economic geography is interested in how economic change is driven by innovation and shaped by structural, historical, and contextual factors at different scales. This thesis articulates an evolutionary economic geography perspective on three debates: (1) What factors influence human systems’ capacity to adapt to climate change, and how can these factors be assessed? (2) What forces drive and inhibit economic change towards low-carbon economies, and how should governments induce and manage such shifts? (3) What role should climate finance play in promoting developing countries’ shifts to low-emitting and climate-resilient economies, and how should it be managed? The thesis includes five academic papers. The first reviews the literature on vulnerability and adaptation. It argues that the adaptive capacity of human systems is constrained by structural and historical factors, and that the rich data necessary to identify these factors can only be obtained through qualitative research methods. The next two papers offer case studies from the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation and Policy Development project, which assess the adaptive capacity of Soufriere, Saint Lucia and Whitehouse, Jamaica, respectively. The fourth paper examines the mechanics of three low-carbon shifts in Brazil: the diffusion of no-till agriculture, the decrease in the deforestation rate in the Amazon, and the growth of the ethanol biofuel industry. It found that the driving forces behind each of the shifts were far more varied and complex than the price-based market dynamics analysed in neoclassical economics. The final paper argues that climate finance will need to perform a variety of functions beyond attracting low-carbon private investment. It concludes that the institutional architecture governing climate finance should enable direct access to national governments to incentivise them to implement sustainable innovation policy regimes.

According to Munich Re (2013), economic losses related to natural disasters have increased from an average of $50 billion in the 1980s to $200 billion over the last decade. The cost of natural disasters is accumulating rapidly and some claim that climate change is responsible. Others believe that human behaviors like population growth or land use should be blamed for these rising costs. The process of climate change has already taken place, and it is expected to continue to impact the future. As a result, people are more vulnerable today. Therefore, understanding the economic aspects of climate change and natural hazard risks should be considered as a major issue and addressed in greater detail. This dissertation aimed to explore household preferences of climate change adaptation and the economic impacts of natural hazards at both micro- and macro- levels. The dissertation consisted of three related empirical studies based on the two main changes that will occur with climate change predicted by scientific climate models: stronger hurricanes and rising sea levels. The first chapter examined the impact of a recent hurricane on household activities. The objective was to find out whether a more intensified hurricane caused greater damages, and whether such damages had a long-lasting impact on household recovery. If the impact of natural hazards is worse than before, people should avoid putting themselves in harm's way. However, evidence indicates that the population in coastal cities is still growing fast, as people tend to reside near the beaches and attractive landscapes. Concerns are thus prompted by the possible lack of perceptions for future risks caused by natural hazards. Therefore, the second chapter focused on household perceptions and preferences for adapting to sea level rise in Florida. Lastly, although a disaster strikes rich or poor nations indifferently, some small island nations are among the most vulnerable. In the third chapter, the macroeconomic implications of natural hazards in Central America and the Caribbean were investigated. A careful examination of the economic factors that can lead to smaller losses and higher abilities to cope with disasters is crucial in such countries.

Economia
Doctoral Programme in Economics
O presente trabalho tem como objectivo principal contribuir para um maior conhecimento do processo de crescimento económico Português ocorrido nas últimas três décadas, considerando explicitamente a relação entre mudanças ocorridas ao nível sectorial e transformações de natureza macroeconómica. Embora este assunto tenha sido objecto de análise em trabalhos anteriores, várias questões relevantes relacionadas com a interacção entre progresso tecnológico, mudança estrutural e crescimento económico permaneceram em aberto. Estas questões são abordadas neste trabalho, que tem na teoria neo-Schumpeteriana a sua fundamentação teórica principal. Após uma primeira parte onde é realizada uma revisão da literatura relevante na área de conhecimento em questão, a análise da relação entre tecnologia, mudança estrutural e desempenho macroeconómico é abordada, utilizando a metodologia shift-share. Esta metodologia é aplicada considerando diferentes desagregações da actividade económica e utilizando a produtividade total de factores como medida de produtividade. São também tidos em conta os efeitos de Verdoorn no cômputo da relevância do efeito de mudança estrutural. A consideração explícita do factor capital na mensuração do crescimento da produtividade revela que o desempenho da economia Portuguesa entre 1977 e 2003 foi globalmente medíocre. Os resultados revelam ainda que os reduzidos ganhos de produtividade decorreram sobretudo da transferência de trabalho e de capital entre sectores, mais do que de ganhos de produtividade intra-sectoriais. Os benefícios inerentes à mudança estrutural ocorreram, no entanto, no interior dos grandes grupos de actividade da economia Portuguesa, que sofreram poucas alterações ao longo do período em estudo. De facto, no final deste período, a economia Portuguesa conserva os seus principais traços estruturais, registando um grande relevo de actividades com uso intensivo de mão-de-obra pouco qualificada e com reduzida intensidade tecnológica. A última parte da tese é dedicada à análise da relação entre a importância relativa de actividades tecnologicamente avançadas na estrutura produtiva e o crescimento da produtividade do trabalho. Para este efeito é estimada uma regressão com dados em painel onde, para além de Portugal, são considerados países que no início do período em estudo possuíam características estruturais idênticas ao caso Português, mas que observaram trajectórias de crescimento muito diversas no período em análise. Os resultados sustentam empiricamente a hipótese segundo a qual os países com maior capacidade de proceder a transformações efectivas da sua estrutura produtiva em torno de actividades tecnologicamente mais avançadas beneficiam de um crescimento superior da produtividade do trabalho. Em simultâneo, a evidência obtida confirma o carácter estratégico das actividades directamente relacionadas com as tecnologias de informação e de comunicação, ainda que tal aconteça unicamente para actividades produtoras destas tecnologias. Este facto sublinha o carácter local dos efeitos de spillover decorrentes de actividades económicas tecnologicamente mais avançadas.
The main purpose of the present study is to contribute for a deeper understanding of the growth process of the Portuguese economy over the last three decades, by explicitly taking into account the relationship between changes occurring at the industry level of the economy and overall macroeconomic changes. Although a few studies have already addressed the matter for the Portuguese case, a number of important issues relating structural transformation, technology and economic growth remained unexplored, and it is our purpose to fill this gap by considering the neo-Schumpeterian stream of research as the main theoretical frame of analysis. After comprehensively surveying the relevant literature on the field, a preliminary assessment of the relationship between technology, structural change and the macroeconomic performance of the Portuguese economy is undertaken using shift-share analysis. This technique is applied considering total factor productivity growth, and employing different levels of breakdown of economic activity, which include the division of industries according to their skills and innovativeness potential. The impact of Verdoorn effects is also acknowledged. The inclusion of capital in the measurement of productivity growth reveals that the performance of the Portuguese economy was globally mediocre in the period under scrutiny, which was characterised by very slow rates of TFP growth. The results show furthermore that most of the (low) productivity gains came from the shift of labour and capital resources across sectors, rather than from intra-productivity gains. Structural change gains arose, however, in a context of relatively slow change in the broad Portuguese economic structure, which maintained a strong bias towards traditional and low-skilled activities. The latter part of the thesis is dedicated to the investigation of the benefits in terms of productivity growth arising from an increase in the relative importance of technologically dynamic industries. This is done using panel data regression methods and analysing the Portuguese case with reference to a number of other countries that presented similar structural characteristics in the late 1970s, but which have experienced widely different growth trajectories since then. The results provide empirical support to the hypothesis according to which substantial benefits have accrued to countries that successfully changed their structure towards more technologically advanced industries. Moreover, the results lend some support to the view that ICT-related industries are strategic branches of economic activity, but only when producing industries are considered. This accentuates the fact that most spillovers from advanced industries, and particularly ICT producing industries are local and national in character.

Economia
Doctoral Programme in Economics
O presente trabalho tem como objectivo principal contribuir para um maior conhecimento do processo de crescimento económico Português ocorrido nas últimas três décadas, considerando explicitamente a relação entre mudanças ocorridas ao nível sectorial e transformações de natureza macroeconómica. Embora este assunto tenha sido objecto de análise em trabalhos anteriores, várias questões relevantes relacionadas com a interacção entre progresso tecnológico, mudança estrutural e crescimento económico permaneceram em aberto. Estas questões são abordadas neste trabalho, que tem na teoria neo-Schumpeteriana a sua fundamentação teórica principal. Após uma primeira parte onde é realizada uma revisão da literatura relevante na área de conhecimento em questão, a análise da relação entre tecnologia, mudança estrutural e desempenho macroeconómico é abordada, utilizando a metodologia shift-share. Esta metodologia é aplicada considerando diferentes desagregações da actividade económica e utilizando a produtividade total de factores como medida de produtividade. São também tidos em conta os efeitos de Verdoorn no cômputo da relevância do efeito de mudança estrutural. A consideração explícita do factor capital na mensuração do crescimento da produtividade revela que o desempenho da economia Portuguesa entre 1977 e 2003 foi globalmente medíocre. Os resultados revelam ainda que os reduzidos ganhos de produtividade decorreram sobretudo da transferência de trabalho e de capital entre sectores, mais do que de ganhos de produtividade intra-sectoriais. Os benefícios inerentes à mudança estrutural ocorreram, no entanto, no interior dos grandes grupos de actividade da economia Portuguesa, que sofreram poucas alterações ao longo do período em estudo. De facto, no final deste período, a economia Portuguesa conserva os seus principais traços estruturais, registando um grande relevo de actividades com uso intensivo de mão-de-obra pouco qualificada e com reduzida intensidade tecnológica. A última parte da tese é dedicada à análise da relação entre a importância relativa de actividades tecnologicamente avançadas na estrutura produtiva e o crescimento da produtividade do trabalho. Para este efeito é estimada uma regressão com dados em painel onde, para além de Portugal, são considerados países que no início do período em estudo possuíam características estruturais idênticas ao caso Português, mas que observaram trajectórias de crescimento muito diversas no período em análise. Os resultados sustentam empiricamente a hipótese segundo a qual os países com maior capacidade de proceder a transformações efectivas da sua estrutura produtiva em torno de actividades tecnologicamente mais avançadas beneficiam de um crescimento superior da produtividade do trabalho. Em simultâneo, a evidência obtida confirma o carácter estratégico das actividades directamente relacionadas com as tecnologias de informação e de comunicação, ainda que tal aconteça unicamente para actividades produtoras destas tecnologias. Este facto sublinha o carácter local dos efeitos de spillover decorrentes de actividades económicas tecnologicamente mais avançadas.
The main purpose of the present study is to contribute for a deeper understanding of the growth process of the Portuguese economy over the last three decades, by explicitly taking into account the relationship between changes occurring at the industry level of the economy and overall macroeconomic changes. Although a few studies have already addressed the matter for the Portuguese case, a number of important issues relating structural transformation, technology and economic growth remained unexplored, and it is our purpose to fill this gap by considering the neo-Schumpeterian stream of research as the main theoretical frame of analysis. After comprehensively surveying the relevant literature on the field, a preliminary assessment of the relationship between technology, structural change and the macroeconomic performance of the Portuguese economy is undertaken using shift-share analysis. This technique is applied considering total factor productivity growth, and employing different levels of breakdown of economic activity, which include the division of industries according to their skills and innovativeness potential. The impact of Verdoorn effects is also acknowledged. The inclusion of capital in the measurement of productivity growth reveals that the performance of the Portuguese economy was globally mediocre in the period under scrutiny, which was characterised by very slow rates of TFP growth. The results show furthermore that most of the (low) productivity gains came from the shift of labour and capital resources across sectors, rather than from intra-productivity gains. Structural change gains arose, however, in a context of relatively slow change in the broad Portuguese economic structure, which maintained a strong bias towards traditional and low-skilled activities. The latter part of the thesis is dedicated to the investigation of the benefits in terms of productivity growth arising from an increase in the relative importance of technologically dynamic industries. This is done using panel data regression methods and analysing the Portuguese case with reference to a number of other countries that presented similar structural characteristics in the late 1970s, but which have experienced widely different growth trajectories since then. The results provide empirical support to the hypothesis according to which substantial benefits have accrued to countries that successfully changed their structure towards more technologically advanced industries. Moreover, the results lend some support to the view that ICT-related industries are strategic branches of economic activity, but only when producing industries are considered. This accentuates the fact that most spillovers from advanced industries, and particularly ICT producing industries are local and national in character.

O presente trabalho tem como objectivo principal contribuir para um maior conhecimento do processo de crescimento económico Português ocorrido nas últimas três décadas, considerando explicitamente a relação entre mudanças ocorridas ao nível sectorial e transformações de natureza macroeconómica. Embora este assunto tenha sido objecto de análise em trabalhos anteriores, várias questões relevantes relacionadas com a interacção entre progresso tecnológico, mudança estrutural e crescimento económico permaneceram em aberto. Estas questões são abordadas neste trabalho, que tem na teoria neo-Schumpeteriana a sua fundamentação teórica principal. Após uma primeira parte onde é realizada uma revisão da literatura relevante na área de conhecimento em questão, a análise da relação entre tecnologia, mudança estrutural e desempenho macroeconómico é abordada, utilizando a metodologia shift-share. Esta metodologia é aplicada considerando diferentes desagregações da actividade económica e utilizando a produtividade total de factores como medida de produtividade. São também tidos em conta os efeitos de Verdoorn no cômputo da relevância do efeito de mudança estrutural. A consideração explícita do factor capital na mensuração do crescimento da produtividade revela que o desempenho da economia Portuguesa entre 1977 e 2003 foi globalmente medíocre. Os resultados revelam ainda que os reduzidos ganhos de produtividade decorreram sobretudo da transferência de trabalho e de capital entre sectores, mais do que de ganhos de produtividade intra-sectoriais. Os benefícios inerentes à mudança estrutural ocorreram, no entanto, no interior dos grandes grupos de actividade da economia Portuguesa, que sofreram poucas alterações ao longo do período em estudo. De facto, no final deste período, a economia Portuguesa conserva os seus principais traços estruturais, registando um grande relevo de actividades com uso intensivo de mão-de-obra pouco qualificada e com reduzida intensidade tecnológica. A última parte da tese é dedicada à análise da relação entre a importância relativa de actividades tecnologicamente avançadas na estrutura produtiva e o crescimento da produtividade do trabalho. Para este efeito é estimada uma regressão com dados em painel onde, para além de Portugal, são considerados países que no início do período em estudo possuíam características estruturais idênticas ao caso Português, mas que observaram trajectórias de crescimento muito diversas no período em análise. Os resultados sustentam empiricamente a hipótese segundo a qual os países com maior capacidade de proceder a transformações efectivas da sua estrutura produtiva em torno de actividades tecnologicamente mais avançadas beneficiam de um crescimento superior da produtividade do trabalho. Em simultâneo, a evidência obtida confirma o carácter estratégico das actividades directamente relacionadas com as tecnologias de informação e de comunicação, ainda que tal aconteça unicamente para actividades produtoras destas tecnologias. Este facto sublinha o carácter local dos efeitos de spillover decorrentes de actividades económicas tecnologicamente mais avançadas.

Post independence Indian politics was dominated by one party, the Indian National Congress. The first serious challenge to the Congress emerged in the late 1960s, in the form of peasant parties in north India, the Bhartiya Lok Dal (BLD). By the late 1980's the Congress had considerably weakened, and a new wave of parties emerged, this time based in ethnic identity, the right wing Hindu Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and the low caste Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). This thesis studies the role that economic changes played in the emergence of these parties and some economic effects of these political developments. The first research chapter empirically investigates the role of the Green revolution (adoption of new seed varieties) in the political mobilization of peasants and the emergence of the BLD. The emergence of the BSP led to the strengthening of the low caste political network. Access to this new network gave low caste people increased bargaining power over corrupt officials. The effect that this had is the subject of the second chapter. I find that the emergence of the BSP leads to increased influence of low caste households over corrupt officials and reduction in the bribes they pay. The last chapter studies the sharp increase in support for ethnic parties, the BJP and BSP, between the period 1989-96. It specifically investigates whether these increases were related to ethnic polarization. I uncover a positive relationship. During this time period more polarized districts experienced greater increases in the support for ethnic parties. The main contribution of this thesis lies in postulating and finding evidence for the relationship between economic and political changes in India in the recent past.
Arts, Faculty of
Vancouver School of Economics
Graduate

Diabetes is used as a lens through which to examine colonial processes of dispossession, assimilation, and economic change in the coastal First Nations community of Gitxaala, in BC, Canada. Diabetes is a worldwide epidemic disproportionately affecting indigenous peoples. Social determinants of diabetes in Gitxaala are explored ethnographically, focusing on diet change and food security. Diet is framed as a 'choice' by government agencies, but economic factors, food availability, and food preferences all delimit the foods consumed in Gitxaala. The importance of traditional foods for subsistence and cultural identity is explored. A history of integrating and then relying upon colonial foods is traced through a history of economic change. Current economic hardship limits both access to nutritious store-bought foods and the harvesting of traditional foods; although many community members prefer traditional foods, starchy processed foods are the most readily available and affordable. Colonial attempts to assimilate taste preferences, including relief rations and residential schools, have had lasting effects. Childhood exposure to traditional foods, or to sugary foods, impacts adult diet and health. Intergenerational attitudes to foods are changing, and Gitxaala youth are consuming an increasing amount of sugary foods. Access to traditional food resources is impacted by colonial policy, community avenues of food distribution, and traditional ecological knowedge. Expropriation and commercialization of resources, particularly the fishery, have severely impacted access to important resources, contributing to community-level food insecurity. While the practice of selling harvested foods for cash within the community is growing, food distribution along family lines remains critical for house-hold level food security and community health. The transmission of traditional ecological knowledge about food ensures healthy eating in the future. Although this process was interrupted by the residential school experience, the community is initiating new ways to maintain this aspect of Gitxaala identity. In Gitxaala, health is understood as holistic. Biomedical understandings of and treatments of diabetes are insufficient for true healing, which must also occur on the community and ecological levels. While colonial practices have been detrimental to food security and risk for diabetes in Gitxaala, certain traditional practices maintain healthy eating and contribute to community health.
Arts, Faculty of
Anthropology, Department of
Graduate

Aquesta tesi doctoral esta composta per tres capítols independents. Contribueix a una literatura sobre desenvolupament econòmic, la geografia econòmica, el comerç internacional i el canvi climàtic. Al capítol 1, “El poder dels mercats: impacte de les invasions de llagostes del desert sobre la salut infantil”, proporciono proves reduïdes de la importància (accés a) mercats en la transmissió de xocs agrícoles impulsats pel canvi climàtic a l’acumulació de capital humà a economies agrícoles de baixos ingressos. En general, argumenta per la importància d’abordar les reaccions del mercat local a aquest tipus de xoc agrícola a l’hora de dissenyar polítiques públiques. També transmet evidències clares de la vulnerabilitat de les economies agrícoles i de baixos ingressos als xocs a curt termini induïts pel canvi climàtic. Per tant, motiva els capítols posteriors, en què estudio les reaccions econòmiques a llarg termini i les conseqüències del canvi climàtic. Al capítol 2, “Canvi climàtic i migració: el cas d’Àfrica”, estudio els possibles costos econòmics i les respostes migratòries al canvi climàtic en el context de l’Àfrica subsahariana (SSA) durant les properes dècades. Per a això, desenvolupo un marc espacial quantitatiu que recull el paper de les xarxes comercials i la idoneïtat agrícola en la distribució de la població i el PIB (tenint en compte els ajustos endògens de la selecció i el comerç de cultius). El combino amb dades geoespacials detallades de SSA per simular l’impacte del canvi climàtic mitjançant previsions de productivitat agrícola el 2080 de la FAO. Els resultats suggereixen que el canvi climàtic podria conduir a grans fluxos migratoris dins i entre els països de la SSA, amb pèrdues econòmiques substancials. A més, la capacitat d’ajustar la barreja de producció entre diferents sectors (cultius i / o no agrícoles) o l’elevat accés als mercats mitiga parcialment els impactes del canvi climàtic en termes de sortides de població. Finalment, un experiment relacionat amb l’adopció de tecnologia a l’agricultura mostra que l’adopció tecnologia en aquest sector podria revertir considerablement els impactes negatius del canvi climàtic. El capítol 3, “Especialització sectorial local en un món d’escalfament” estudia l’evolució de la distribució geogràfica de l’economia i el clima mundials en un entorn on tots dos elements són endògens entre si. En particular, incorporo un enllaç entre l’activitat econòmica, les emissions de carboni i l’escalfament global en un model d’equilibri espacial general dinàmic on la innovació espacial impulsa la dinàmica de l’evolució de la productivitat i el creixement. Simulant l’evolució de l’economia mundial durant els propers segles, trobo una concentració d’activitat agrícola molt més gran a les latituds del nord (per exemple, Sibèria) si es compara amb un escenari sense escalfament global. En termes agregats, el canvi climàtic condueix a diferents patrons d’evolució de la productivitat sectorial, el creixement econòmic i l’especialització en sectors agrícoles i urbans, en línia amb alguns dels resultats del capítol 2. Un experiment relacionat amb els costos comercials mostra que friccions més altes en el comerç distribueix la producció i els factors propers a la demanda, reduint l’avantatge comparatiu en regions més perifèriques del món. En general, la meva tesi doctoral proporciona evidències clares de les diferències espacials en les reaccions (i les conseqüències) del canvi climàtic a tot el món. També argumenta fermament per la importància del comerç com a mecanisme econòmic clau darrere de la transmissió d’aquest tipus de xoc als resultats econòmics. En els temps actuals de globalització ràpida, integració de mercats i expansió de xarxes comercials, la meva tesi mostra que apropar els mercats més aïllats a les xarxes comercials globals pot tenir un paper clau en la mitigació de les conseqüències futures del canvi climàtic.
En el capítulo 1, “El poder de los mercados: impacto de las invasiones de langostas del desierto sobre la salud infantil”, proporciono pruebas reducidas de la importancia (acceso a) mercados en la transmisión de choques agrícolas impulsados por el cambio climático a la acumulación de capital humano a economías agrícolas de bajos ingresos. En general, argumenta por la importancia de abordar las reacciones del mercado local en este tipo de choque agrícola a la hora de diseñar políticas públicas. También transmite evidencias claras de la vulnerabilidad de las economías agrícolas y de bajos ingresos a los choques a corto plazo inducidos por el cambio climático. Por lo tanto, motiva a los capítulos posteriores, en que estudio las reacciones económicas a largo plazo y las consecuencias del cambio climático. En el capítulo 2, “Cambio climático y migración: el caso de África”, estudio los posibles costes económicos y las respuestas migratorias al cambio climático en el contexto del África subsahariana (SSA) durante las próximas décadas. Para ello, desarrollo un marco espacial cuantitativo que recoge el papel de las redes comerciales y la idoneidad agrícola en la distribución de la población y el PIB (teniendo en cuenta los ajustes endógenos de la selección y el comercio de cultivos). Lo combino con datos geoespaciales detalladas para simular el impacto del cambio climático mediante previsiones de productividad agrícola en el 2080 de la FAO. Los resultados sugieren que el cambio climático podría conducir a grandes flujos migratorios dentro y entre los países de la SSA, con pérdidas económicas sustanciales. Además, la capacidad de ajustar la mezcla de producción entre diferentes sectores (cultivos y / o no agrícolas) o el elevado acceso a los mercados mitiga parcialmente los impactos del cambio climático en términos de salidas de población. Finalmente, un experimento relacionado con la adopción de tecnología a la agricultura muestra que la adopción tecnología en este sector podría revertir considerablemente los impactos negativos del cambio climático. El capítulo 3, “Especialización sectorial local en un mundo de calentamiento” estudia la evolución de la distribución geográfica de la economía y el clima mundiales en un entorno donde ambos elementos son endógenos entre sí. En particular, incorporo un enlace entre la actividad económica, las emisiones de carbono y el calentamiento global en un modelo de equilibrio espacial general dinámico donde la innovación espacial impulsa la dinámica de la evolución de la productividad y el crecimiento. Simulando la evolución de la economía mundial durante los próximos siglos, encuentro una concentración de actividad agrícola mucho mayor en las latitudes del norte (por ejemplo, Siberia) si se compara con un escenario sin calentamiento global. En términos agregados, el cambio climático conduce a diferentes patrones de evolución de la productividad sectorial, el crecimiento económico y la especialización en sectores agrícolas y urbanos, en línea con algunos de los resultados del capítulo 2. Un experimento relacionado con los costes comerciales muestra que fricciones más altas en el comercio distribuye la producción y los factores cercanos a la demanda, reduciendo la ventaja comparativa en regiones más periféricas del mundo. En general, mi tesis doctoral proporciona evidencias claras de las diferencias espaciales en las reacciones (y las consecuencias) del cambio climático en todo el mundo. También argumenta firmemente por la importancia del comercio como mecanismo económico clave detrás de la transmisión de este tipo de choque a los resultados económicos. En los tiempos actuales de globalización rápida, integración de mercados y expansión de redes comerciales, mi tesis muestra que acercar los mercados más aislados en las redes comerciales globales puede tener un papel clave en la mitigación de las consecuencias futuras del cambio climático.
This doctoral thesis answer questions related to the spatial impacts of climate change on economic outcomes. Composed by three independent chapters, it contributes to a literature at the intersection of economic development, economic geography, international trade, and climate change. In Chapter 1, “The Power of Markets: Impact of Desert Locust Invasions on Child Health”, I provide reduced-form evidence of the importance of (access to) markets on the transmission of climate change-led agricultural shocks to human capital accumulation in low-income agricultural economies. Overall, it argues for the importance of addressing local market reactions to this type of agricultural shock when designing public policy. It also conveys clear evidence of the vulnerability of agricultural, low-income economies, to short-term shocks induced by climate change. Hence, it motivates the subsequent chapters, in which I study the long-run economic reactions to and consequences of climate change. In particular, in Chapter 2, “Climate Change and Migration: the case of Africa”, I study the potential economic costs and migration responses to climate change in the context of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) during the next decades. For that, I develop a quantitative spatial framework that captures the role of trade networks and agricultural suitability on the distribution of population and GDP accounting for endogenous adjustments of crop choice and trade. I combine it with detailed geospatial data from SSA to simulate the impact of climate change using forecasts of agricultural productivity in 2080 from FAO. My results suggest that climate change could lead to major migration flows within and across SSA countries, with substantial economic losses associated with it. Moreover, the capacity of adjusting the production mix across different sectors (crops and/or non-agricultural) or high access to markets partially mitigates the impacts of climate change in terms of population outflows. Finally, a policy experiment related to technology adoption in agriculture shows that the adoption of modern inputs in that sector could reverse considerably the negative impacts of climate change. My thesis is concluded with Chapter 3, “Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World”, where I study the evolution of the geographical distribution of the world’s economy and climate in a setup where both elements are endogenous to one another. In particular, I embed a mapping between the evolution of economic activity, carbon emissions, and global warming into a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model where spatial innovation drives the dynamics of the evolution of productivities and growth. By simulating the evolution of the world economy for the next centuries, I find a much higher concentration of agricultural activity in northern latitudes (e.g. Siberia and Northern China) if compared to a scenario without global warming. Moreover, in aggregate terms, climate change leads to different patterns of the evolution of sectoral--productivities, economic growth, and specialization into agriculture and urban sectors, in line with some of the results from Chapter 2. A policy experiment related to trade costs shows that higher frictions to trade reallocate production and factors close to the demand, by reducing the comparative advantage in more peripheral regions of the globe. Overall, my doctoral thesis provides clear evidence of the spatial differences in the reactions to (and consequences of) climate change throughout the globe. It also argues firmly for the importance of trade as a key economic mechanism behind the transmission of this sort of shock to economic outcomes. In the present times of fast globalization, integration of markets, and expansion of trade networks, my thesis shows that bringing the most isolated markets closer to the global trade networks can have a key role in mitigating the future consequences of climate change.

This study is mainly focussed on the analysis of social and economic changes as an outcome of technological change introduced in twentieth century agriculture in Khairpur. These changes led to the emergence of a middle class in Khairpur. Chapter 1 introduces Sind and summarises the conditions of Khairpur state in the mid-twentieth century and concludes the key points regarding the socio-economic and administrative status of the state. Chapter 2 deals with Green Revolution debate. The next three chapters describe the main sources of agricultural revolution which created social, cultural and political changes in Khairpur. These sources included the improvement of irrigation, the introduction of mechanisation in agriculture and the adoption of new high-yielding varieties technology. Chapter 6 examines the process of commercialisation of agriculture and growth of urban culture as an impact of agricultural change. It analyses consumer culture as a new middle class life was created by technological change. The chapter demonstrates how the cultural way of life underwent a remarkable transformation in Khairpur through the consumption of new products. This argument at one level examines the tools of marketing used by advertisers and it indicates at another level the thrust of consumers for their desired identities in a society where they were marginalised by the way that the economic and social order had developed in colonial times. Chapter 7 demonstrates that shopping and leisure became increasingly important for the middle class. It was by such means that they expressed their new identities and new social positions. They also came to express themselves politically. Thus, they were able to assert themselves against the attempts of the landlords and bureaucrats to keep them down. But they were not able to do so to the extent that they took power. Nevertheless, there were changes in the economic and social structure which portended future political change. Chapter 8 deals with conclusion of the study.

Cette thèse étudie d'une part la relation entre les institutions foncières et la transition de la main-d'œuvre du secteur agricole vers le secteur non-agricole. D'autre part, elle explore l'effet de la réallocation du travail en dehors du secteur agricole sur l'efficience sectorielle. Elle se compose de trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre utilise les données de l'Ouganda pour identifier l'effet causal de la sécurité foncière sur la probabilité qu'un ménage passe du secteur agricole au secteur non-agricole dans sa stratégie de diversification de ses activités. Nous développons tout d'abord un modèle d'allocation du temps du travail dans lequel les ménages sont confrontés à des coûts hétérogènes dans leur transition de l'agriculture vers le secteur non-agricole. L'utilisation des terres agricoles comme collatéral pour obtenir des prêts peut aider à financer ces coûts à condition que le ménage détienne des droits de propriété sur celles-ci. Nous utilisons par la suite ce modèle théorique pour dériver un modèle empirique de choix binaire estimable. Nous comparons deux modèles qui corrigent l'endogénéité, notamment le modèle biprobit et le régresseur spécial. Nos résultats suggèrent qu'une augmentation d'un pourcent de la proportion de parcelles titrées appartenant à un ménage augmente la probabilité que ses membres participent à une activité non-agricole de 9,02%, pour le modèle biprobit, et de 11,6% pour le régresseur spécial. Le deuxième chapitre utilise les données de la Tanzanie pour analyser l'effet causal de la sécurité foncière du ménage sur les probabilités d'achèvement de l'école primaire pour les enfants en milieux ruraux conditionnellement au genre. Notre stratégie empirique tient compte de la sélection et s'appuie sur le modèle biprobit pour obtenir des estimateurs consitents. Nos résultats montrent que la sécurité foncière affecte positivement et significativement la probabilité d'achèvement des études primaires, avec un effet fortement influencé par le sous échantillon des filles. Ces résultats suggèrent que la sécurité foncière pourrait être un levier iii efficace pour réduire les inégalités liées au genre dans l'accès à l'éducation et augmenter le taux d'achèvement des études dans les zones rurales. Le troisième chapitre examine la relation entre la participation au travail non agricole et l'efficience technique des agriculteurs en Tanzanie. En incorporant l'approche des effets aléatoires corrélés (CRE) au modèle de frontière stochastique "true" de Greene, nous tenons formellement compte des problèmes d'endogénéité potentiels. Nos résultats suggèrent que la participation au travail non-agricole augmente l'efficience technique de 13,32 % points de pourcentage. L'inefficience technique moyenne est de 0,2489, ce qui indique que les agriculteurs produisent en dessous de la frontière technique optimale, avec un écart de 24,89 % par rapport à la frontière des possibilités de production. Ces résultats impliquent qu'à l'échelle nationale, la réallocation de la main-d'œuvre à son meilleur usage possible, combinée à des choix de cultures en fonction des signaux du marché augmenterait la production agricole globale de 24,89 points de pourcentage.
This thesis investigates the relationship between land institutions and the agricultural labor transition to the non-agricultural sector. It also explores the effect of a large-scale labor movement out of the farming sector on sectoral efficiency. It consists of three chapters. The first chapter uses micro-level data from Uganda to identify the causal effect of land tenure security on the likelihood that a household switches from the agricultural to the nonagricultural sector as a source of livelihood. We first develop a parsimonious occupational choice model in which households face heterogeneous costs of switching from the agricultural to the non-agricultural sector. Using farmland as collateral for loans can help finance these costs provided the switcher has secured property rights over it. We use this theoretical model to derive the empirical binary-choice model to be estimated. We compare two models that mitigate endogeneity issues, including the biprobit and the special regressor (SR) model. We find that a one percent increase in the proportion of titled plots owned by a household increases the probability that its members engage in off-farm activities by 9.02%, for the biprobit model, and by 11.6% for the SR model. The second chapter uses data from three rounds of the Tanzania Living Standard Survey to analyze the causal effect of household land tenure security on children's primary school completion probabilities conditional on gender. School attendance being considered as a reallocation of child labor to a non-agricultural opportunity. The empirical strategy accounts for educational selectivity and relies on a biprobit model to obtain consistent estimates of this causal effect. I find that land tenure security positively and significantly affects children's primary school completion, with an effect strongly driven by girls. Land tenure security increases girls' primary school completion probabilities by roughly 3.68 − 6.3 percentage points but has an ambiguous effect on boys' probabilities. These results suggest that land tenure security v could be an effective policy lever to reduce the gender gap in education and increase school completion rate in rural areas. The third chapter investigates the relationship between off-farm work participation and technical efficiency among smallholder farmers in Tanzania. Incorporating the correlated random effects (CRE) approach to Greene's "true" stochastic frontier model, I account formally for potential endogeneity issues. The results suggest that participation in non-agricultural work increases technical efficiency by 13.32 percentage points. The average technical inefficiency is 0.2489, indicating that farmers produce below the optimal technical frontier, with a 24.89% deviation from the production frontier. These results imply that there is a potential for rural farmers to increase agricultural output even with the current level of available factors of production. Reallocating labor to its best possible use, combined with crop choices based on market signals, would increase overall agricultural production by 24.89 percentage points.

It is a commonly held theory that population is related to levels of social and economic development within a given country or society. The work of Becker in the early 1960s gave much impetus to studies of the relationship between fertility, mortality and migration, on the one hand and their determinants, on the other. The determinants were seen as the social, economic, political and cultural settings of the countries or socities under study. The thesis attempts to apply this theory in relation to the demographic development of Zimbabwe. The thesis postulates that socio-economic differentials within Zimbabwe are sufficiently pronounced as to begin to affect the demographic structure of the country. It is with this in mind that three objectives are set for the thesis: a) the exploration of the demographic structure of the population of Zimbabwe, as a means of furthering the understanding of the nature of the demographic development of the country; b) the development and utilization of data estimation techniques as a means of overcoming the deficiencies in the data collected from official sources; and, c) the investigation of the link between population change, on the one hand, with social and economic development on the other. The hypothesis proceeds through the examination of such social and economic variables as income, education, health and other social indicators in relation to fertility, migration and mortality. Due to the inadequacy of data on the demographic variables, the thesis estimates such data using the recognized relationships among the demographic variables. The estimated demographic measures are subjected to correlation and regression analysis after the development structure of the country has been explored through factor and cluster analysis. Three geographical scales are used in the analyses viz. the province, the district and the local authority area. Use of the three geographical scales exposes the dangers of extrapolating and generalizing national patterns of demographic, social and economic development to the levels of the district and the local authority, as well as exposing different features of the development profile of the country of Zimbabwe. The thesis concludes that there is a differentiation in the demographic profile of the various geographical regions of the country, based on inequitable distribution of resources in the past when the country was under white settler colonial rule. The advent of independence and the introduction of policies designed to reduce such inequalities had not had time to work by the time the 1982 Census, from whose data the study is based, was taken. The thesis therefore recommends that further censuses are required if the effect of such policies are to be measured. It further recommends the use of cross-temporal instead of the cross-sectional data which was applied in this study.

Cette thèse analyse les conséquences socio-économiques du changement climatique, en particulier ses effets sur le commerce international, les migrations internes en Inde et la propagation de la dengue au Brésil.Le premier chapitre analyse le lien entre changement climatique et flux de commerce bilatéraux, pour différents secteurs et produits, sur la période 1992-2014. Les variations de température ont un impact négatif sur le commerce bilatéral des pays, en moyenne, contrairement aux variations de précipitation. Lorsqu’on désagrège par produits, des effets négatifs et positifs surviennent, mais les effets négatifs dominent pour la température, en particulier pour les produits agricoles et manufacturiers, notamment l’industrie textile et la métallurgie, ce qui peut s’expliquer par des effets transitant par la productivité du travail. Les variations de précipitation ont aussi un impact hétérogène, mais avec un effet positif dominant. Les résultats suggèrent en outre que le changement climatique affecte les avantages comparatifs révélés des pays, en particulier pour les produits les plus sensibles au climat.Le second chapitre étudie l’impact du changement climatique sur les migrations entre les états indiens en 1991 et 2001. L’utilisation des données de recensement pour ces deux années permet d’étudier l’effet du climat précédant la migration. Des indicateurs météorologiques basés sur un « Indice de Précipitation Standardisé » (SPI) permettent de mesurer la fréquence, la durée et l’intensité des épisodes de sécheresse, ainsi qu’un excès éventuel de précipitations. Les résultats montrent que la fréquence des sécheresses augmente les taux de migrations au départ de l’état affecté. Cet impact est particulièrement fort pour les états agricoles. Les trois principaux canaux par lesquels transite l’effet des sècheresses sont le revenu moyen, l’agriculture et l’urbanisation des états.Le dernier chapitre quantifie l’impact du climat et de l’urbanisation sur le taux de prévalence de la dengue au sein des états brésiliens, sur la période 1992-2012. Les résultats mettent en évidence un impact positif du taux d’humidité de l’air sur la dengue, ainsi qu’une relation en cloche associant la température et la dengue. Par ailleurs, une augmentation de la densité de population de 1 % est associée à une hausse moyenne de la dengue de 2,5 à 3 %. Un meilleur accès à l’eau potable et une meilleure gestion des déchets diminuent en revanche l’incidence de la dengue. Un modèle à équations simultanées permet par ailleurs de montrer qu’il existe une causalité circulaire entre le revenu des ménages et la dengue. D’un côté, une hausse de 10 % de la part de la population touchée par la dengue y occasionne une baisse de 0,16 % du revenu moyen. De l’autre, cette baisse est associée à une plus grande prévalence de la dengue
In this dissertation, I study the impact of climate change on several economic outcomes, mainly on international trade, migration, and on vector-borne diseases. In the first chapter, I investigate the relationship between weather variations and bilateral trade flows at the country, sectoral and product levels, worldwide, and over the 1992-2014 period. I find a negative effect of temperature variations on bilateral trade at the country level. At the product level, both negative and positive effects arise, but the negative effect dominates. The effects are on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, especially in the textile and metals sectors. Possible channels are the effect of temperature on output and labour productivity. Precipitation variations have also an effect on the product level, with the positive effect dominating for the affected products. The results suggest that weather variations also affect bilateral revealed comparative advantages, mainly for the weather sensitive products that I identify in the analysis. Moving to a long term analysis, the results suggest that temperature in the exporter country has a persistent effect that lasts several years. Furthermore, adaptation to climate change does not seem to changes the negative effects of temperature. The second chapter combines climate data with migration data from the 1991 and 2001 Indian Censuses to investigate the impact of climate variability on internal migration. The use of census data makes it possible to test and compare the effect on migration of climatic factors prior to migration. Relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability are used to measure the frequency, duration and magnitude of drought and excess precipitation based on the Standardized Precipitation Index. The estimation results show that drought frequency in the origin state increases inter-state migration in India. This effect is stronger in agricultural states, and in such states the magnitude of drought also increases inter-state migration significantly. Drought frequency has the strongest effect on rural-rural inter-state migration. In the third chapter, I measure the impact of weather and urbanization characteristics on dengue prevalence in Brazilian states during the 1992-2012 period. I find a positive effect of vapour pressure and a hump-shaped relationship between temperature and dengue. The results show that an increase in population density is likely to increase the dengue prevalence. Higher access to drinking water and waste management systems decrease dengue incidence. Additionally, higher immigration rates coming from states with high dengue incidence, increase the dengue prevalence in the destination state. Using a simultaneous equation model, I measure the double causality between household wage income and dengue prevalence. On the one hand, results show that, on average, a 10% increase in dengue rates is associated with a 0.16% decrease of household wage income. On the other hand, lower average household wage income is associated with a higher dengue rate

Since 1978, China has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Notable features of its economic performance have been its industrial growth and the expansion of its manufactured exports. The focus of this research is China's industrial performance during the years 1980 and 1992. Its principal objective is to analyze Industrial growth from the twin perspectives of resource mobilisation and productivity change. It is argued that these two aspects, both of which reflect the impact of Dengist reforms, are interrelated.;Our analysis of resource mobilisation suggests that a number of factors have contributed to China's rapid industrial growth. Two of these have been of particular importance. First, increased emphasis on the role of the market, in terms of facilitating more rapid growth of household demand and strengthening intersectoral linkages, enabled the Industrial sector to improve its access to widening domestic and foreign markets. Second, the transformation of funding arrangements for industry had two beneficial results: it permitted non-state agents to play a greater role in financing industrial expansion; and it enabled the traditional state funding system to enhance its role as a means of improving intersectoral balance.;The analysis of productivity change in post-reform industry is deliberately set in the context of the changes in market structures which have faced China's industrial enterprises. Our findings indicate that enterprise reforms and structural adjustments have been a source of improvement in levels of industrial productivity in China. But they also suggest that such improvements have been neither consistent, nor balanced over time and between different branches of Industry.;In an attempt to identify the forces which have given rise to the distinctive patterns of resource mobilisation and productivity change in China's industrial sector under the Impact of reform, we have deliberately focused on the interactions between government, enterprises and the market. It is noteworthy that the increased role played by regional and local governments has facilitated the more intensive use of local productive resources. But it is also clear that the same factor has been the source of regional market fragmentation. Both of these elements have impacted on China's industrial performance since the early 1980s.

There is a consensus of scientific thought that humana ctivities are altering the gaseous composition of the atmosphere and leading to global climate change. This thesis addresses the question of how this global climate change will manifest itself at the regional level. In particular, a dynamic simulation model integrating both climate change and climatically sensitives ocio-economic activities will be developed. This model will explore the regional variations in both climate change and socio-economic activity. Three Local Authorities in Scotland were chosen for this study, Argyll on the west coast, Stirling inland and Fife on the east coast. This provides a west-east transect across central Scotland. Meteorological data, covering the period 1970-1998, was collected from twelve sites spread across these regions. These data were analysed in order to provide a climatic profile of each of the regions, and to identify any evidence of climate change in the form of trends in the data. Data relating to socio-economic factors was taken from a variety of sources. Mere possible this covered the same period in time as the climate data. Both sets of data were examined to determine evidence of climate sensitivity in the socioeconomic data using suitable statistical techniques. A simple, yet thermodynamically sound, dynamic climate model was developed and calibrated for each region using the data from the previous analysis. This model allowed increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) to directly affect the mean surface temperature of the three regions. Precipitation changes from the UKCIP02 regional climate model were included This allowed seasonal temperature and precipitation totals to be simulated, on a regional basis, under different climate change scenarios. Simulations, calibrated on datafrom 1970-1998, were run forward to 2100. The climate results were similar to the outputfrom the UKCIP02 model. Six sectors of a socio-economic model were constructed population, employment, land use, water resources, housing and emissions. Where statistically significant relationships, between climatic and the local socio-economic variables were found, these were included in the model. Simulations for the period 1970-2100, were run under four different climate change scenarios, and that of constant climate, in order to assessth eir impact on the six sectors at the regional scale. The results indicate considerable regional variations in the impacts both of climate change and the associated climatically sensitive activities. Argyll in the west, for example, could benefit from increased tourism and the potential for agricultural expansion. If in-migration is allowed to offset labour shortages, then the west sees a reversal of the population decline of previous decades. Climate change has little impact on the economy of the inland and eastern regions. However, a problem does emerge with water resources in the east. Summer droughts are seen to increase in frequency, suggesting that both the costs and benefits of climate change will be unevenly distributed. The implications of these results for the management of change are then discussed along with future research needs.