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Relevant bibliographies by topics / Ecological Modelling

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Academic literature on the topic 'Ecological Modelling'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 4 May 2024

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Journal articles on the topic "Ecological Modelling"

1

Jørgensen, Sven Erik. "Ecological Modelling by `Ecological Modelling'." Ecological Modelling 100, no. 1-3 (December 1997): 5–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3800(97)00158-0.

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Jørgensen, Sven Erik. "25 years of Ecological Modelling by Ecological Modelling." Ecological Modelling 126, no. 2-3 (February 2000): 95–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3800(00)00320-3.

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RAI, VIKAS. "MODELLING ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS." International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 05, no. 02 (April 1995): 537–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218127495000429.

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The paper introduces some new techniques which facilitate the study of nonlinear coupled ordinary differential equations modelling ecological systems. The strength and weaknesses of these techniques are discussed in detail. It also assesses the usefulness of “deterministic chaos” as a paradigm to understanding the dynamics of interacting populations.

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Thuiller, Wilfried. "Ecological niche modelling." Current Biology 34, no. 6 (March 2024): R225—R229. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2024.02.018.

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Mitsch, William J. "Fundamentals of Ecological Modelling." Journal of Environmental Quality 18, no. 2 (April 1989): 249. http://dx.doi.org/10.2134/jeq1989.00472425001800020027x.

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Scarnecchia, David L., and S. E. Jorgensen. "Fundamentals of Ecological Modelling." Journal of Range Management 48, no. 6 (November 1995): 566. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/4003074.

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Legović, Tarzan. "Ecological modelling Internet resources." Ecological Modelling 100, no. 1-3 (December 1997): 163–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3800(97)00152-x.

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GRAZ, F. PATRICK. "Ecological Modelling: An Introduction." Austral Ecology 36, no. 7 (October 25, 2011): e41-e41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2011.02273.x.

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Ulgiati, Sergio. "Fundamentals of ecological modelling." Ecological Modelling 78, no. 3 (April 1995): 285–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(95)90077-2.

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Pavlova, S. A. "MODELLING OF RADIO ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES." RUDN Journal of Ecology and Life Safety 25, no. 1 (2017): 116–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.22363/2313-2310-2017-25-1-116-123.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Ecological Modelling"

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Darling, Paul Simon. "SAR modelling for ecological applications." Thesis, University of Reading, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.297315.

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Nightingale, Glenna Faith. "Bayesian point process modelling of ecological communities." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3710.

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The modelling of biological communities is important to further the understanding of species coexistence and the mechanisms involved in maintaining biodiversity. This involves considering not only interactions between individual biological organisms, but also the incorporation of covariate information, if available, in the modelling process. This thesis explores the use of point processes to model interactions in bivariate point patterns within a Bayesian framework, and, where applicable, in conjunction with covariate data. Specifically, we distinguish between symmetric and asymmetric species interactions and model these using appropriate point processes. In this thesis we consider both pairwise and area interaction point processes to allow for inhibitory interactions and both inhibitory and attractive interactions. It is envisaged that the analyses and innovations presented in this thesis will contribute to the parsimonious modelling of biological communities.

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Sala, Claudia. "Ecological modelling for next generation sequencing data." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2013. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/6279/.

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Le tecniche di next generation sequencing costituiscono un potente strumento per diverse applicazioni, soprattutto da quando i loro costi sono iniziati a calare e la qualità dei loro dati a migliorare. Una delle applicazioni del sequencing è certamente la metagenomica, ovvero l'analisi di microorganismi entro un dato ambiente, come per esempio quello dell'intestino. In quest'ambito il sequencing ha permesso di campionare specie batteriche a cui non si riusciva ad accedere con le tradizionali tecniche di coltura. Lo studio delle popolazioni batteriche intestinali è molto importante in quanto queste risultano alterate come effetto ma anche causa di numerose malattie, come quelle metaboliche (obesità, diabete di tipo 2, etc.). In questo lavoro siamo partiti da dati di next generation sequencing del microbiota intestinale di 5 animali (16S rRNA sequencing) [Jeraldo et al.]. Abbiamo applicato algoritmi ottimizzati (UCLUST) per clusterizzare le sequenze generate in OTU (Operational Taxonomic Units), che corrispondono a cluster di specie batteriche ad un determinato livello tassonomico. Abbiamo poi applicato la teoria ecologica a master equation sviluppata da [Volkov et al.] per descrivere la distribuzione dell'abbondanza relativa delle specie (RSA) per i nostri campioni. La RSA è uno strumento ormai validato per lo studio della biodiversità dei sistemi ecologici e mostra una transizione da un andamento a logserie ad uno a lognormale passando da piccole comunità locali isolate a più grandi metacomunità costituite da più comunità locali che possono in qualche modo interagire. Abbiamo mostrato come le OTU di popolazioni batteriche intestinali costituiscono un sistema ecologico che segue queste stesse regole se ottenuto usando diverse soglie di similarità nella procedura di clustering. Ci aspettiamo quindi che questo risultato possa essere sfruttato per la comprensione della dinamica delle popolazioni batteriche e quindi di come queste variano in presenza di particolari malattie.

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Peng, Qiuliang. "Periodic differential systems with applications to ecological modelling." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/tape15/PQDD_0006/NQ29093.pdf.

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Doddington, Benjamin. "Modelling the environmental and ecological drivers of chytridiomycosis." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/11670.

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Amphibians are the most threatened taxon assessed by the IUCN Red List, with over 42% of all species in decline. The emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, has been shown to a driver of many of these declines. The broad aim of this thesis is to develop mechanistic models that realistically capture the observed disease dynamics of Bd within Europe, and use these to help understand its ecological and environmental drivers. Mathematical modelling, field work and experimental work are used in order to obtain an understanding of a Bd-host system on Mallorca, and in combination, to show how the host population response to Bd is highly context-dependent. The understanding gained is used to help predict the consequences of an attempt to mitigate (reduce or avoid the negative effects of) Bd in this system, and the mitigation attempt’s short-comings are then analyzed in order to better inform future efforts. The context-dependence of a host-population response to Bd will depend of two components: a component dependent on the host and a component dependent on Bd. Modelling of infection experiment results in the frog species Silurana tropicalis is used to show a temperature-dependent host response which is separate to the temperature-dependent response of Bd. Multi-host models of Bd are created and used to show how increasing species diversity can increase disease risk, and a method of estimating unknown epidemiological parameters for Bd based on known facts about the host’s biology is presented.

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Tomlinson, Benjamin John. "Modelling Social-Ecological Systems in the Catalan Coastal Zones." Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/384929.

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The Systems Approach Framework (SAF) is a methodological framework designed to enhance the efficacy of human decision-making processes within social-ecological systems with regard to sustainability. The SAF was applied in two case studies in the coastal zone of Catalonia, in two separate European Commission Framework Programme projects entitled “Science and Policy Integration for Coastal System Assessment” (SPICOSA) and “Vectors of Change in Oceans and Seas-marine Life, Impact on Economic Sectors" (VECTORS). During the SPICOSA application, a common issue of interest to most stakeholders was the water quality (harmful bacteria and water clarity) of the local city beaches, particularly following combined sewer overflow events, and mitigating this impact by using stormwater collectors. Water quality influences the beach users’ decision whether to stay at the beach or to leave, thus affecting the revenue received by the bars and restaurants on the beach front. A social-ecological model was constructed using the methodology outlined in the SAF to represent this issue, so that it could be used as a tool for deliberation between the stakeholders. The model output implies that the stormwater collectors have been useful in improving beach water quality in Barcelona, but there will be diminished returns in constructing more. The value of the beach is clearly large in terms of both non-market value and revenues generated in the nearby bars and restaurants. However, the impact changes in water quality would have on the recreational appeal of the beach is estimated to be low and further research is recommended to determine beach users’ sensitivity to beach closures (bacteria limit exceeded) and turbidity. At the beginning of the VECTORS project, stakeholders who had participated during the previous SAF application expressed a lack of willingness to engage due to a lack of human resources. The scientific team therefore chose to continue the application with the aspiration of demonstrating the SAF model and results at a later date if the stakeholders found the required resources to engage with the process. There is a general perception that jellyfish abundances are increasing along the Catalan coast. Local authorities are concerned about the stranding events and arrivals of jellyfish to beaches and believe it could reduce the recreational appeal of the beaches. Previous studies also demonstrate the predation of jellyfish (Pelagia noctiluca ephyrae) upon some small pelagic fish larvae (Engraulis encrasicolus). Small pelagics are the principal source of revenue for the local fisheries. A social-ecological model was created in order to capture the effects of changes in abundance of Pelagia noctiluca upon the local fisheries, the tourist industry and the wider economy. Various future scenarios for different abundances of jellyfish blooms were run. Given the changes that these scenarios would cause on the regional gross domestic product and employment, this study concludes that the overall impact of either of these scenarios on the economy would not be significant at the regional scale. The inclusion of stakeholders in the SAF methodology is rightly fundamental, but in practice, it can be extremely difficult to persuade key stakeholders to participate, and this is a flaw in the SAF which needs addressing. SAF Application model builders are dependent on stakeholders sharing important data or knowledge but this may be withheld for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to, lack of resources to participate, disinterest, and concern about how the results will be used. The SAF is a well-structured methodology for cases where a mathematical model is both relevant and feasible and should be considered as a useful step-by-step guide for managing coastal zone systems towards sustainability.

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Minoarivelo, Henintsoa Onivola. "Probabilistic modelling of the evolution of ecological interaction networks." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/17990.

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Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In any ecological system, organisms need to interact with each other for their survival. Such interactions form ecological networks which are usually very complex. Nevertheless, they exhibit well de ned patterns; these regularities are often interpreted as products of meaningful ecological processes. As the networks are evolving through time, biological evolution is one of the factors that affects ecological network architecture. In this work, we develop a mathematical model that represents the evolution through time of such ecological interaction networks. The problem is approached by modelling network evolution as a continuous time Markov process, in such a way that the interactions in which a parent species is involved are potentially inherited by its descendant species. This approach allows us to infer ecological parameters and ecological network histories from real-world network data, as well as to simulate ecological networks under our model. While ecologists have long been aware of the in uence of evolutionary processes in shaping ecological networks, we are now able to evaluate the importance of such in uence.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In enige ekologiese stelsel benodig organismes wisselwerkings met mekaar ten einde te oorleef. Sulke interaksies vorm ekologiese netwerke wat gewoonlik baie kompleks is maar nogtans goed-gede nieerde patrone vertoon. Hierdie patrone word dikwels geïnterpreteer as die produk van betekenisvolle ekologiese prosesse. Aangesien die netwerke met die verloop van tyd ontwikkel, is biologiese ewolusie een van die faktore wat ekologiese netwerkargitektuur beïnvloed. In hierdie studie ontwikkel ons 'n wiskundige model wat die ewolusie van sulke ekologiese interaksienetwerke voorstel. Die probleem word benader deur netwerkewolusie as 'n kontinue-tyd Markov-proses te modelleer, op so 'n manier dat die interaksies waarin 'n voorouerspesie betrokke is potensieel oorerf kan word deur die afstammelingspesies. Hierdie benadering laat ons toe om ekologiese parameters en ekologiese netwerkgeskiedenisse vanuit regte-wêreld data af te lei, sowel as om ekologiese netwerke onder ons model te simuleer. Alhoewel ekoloë al lank reeds bewus is van die invloed wat ewolusionêre prosesse het op die vorming van ekologiese netwerke, is ons nou in staat om die belangrikheid van hierdie invloed te evalueer.

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Mancy, Rebecca. "Modelling persistence in spatially-explicit ecological and epidemiological systems." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2015. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/6219/.

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In this thesis, we consider the problem of long-term persistence in ecological and epidemiological systems. This is important in conservation biology for protecting species at risk of extinction and in epidemiology for reducing disease prevalence and working towards elimination. Understanding how to predict and control persistence is critical for these aims. In Chapter 2, we discuss existing ways of characterising persistence and their relationship with the modelling paradigms employed in ecology and epidemiology. We note that data are often limited to information on the state of particular patches or populations and are modelled using a metapopulation approach. In Chapter 3, we define persistence in relation to a pre-specified time horizon in stochastic single-species and two-species competition models, comparing results between discrete and continuous time simulations. We find that discrete and continuous time simulations can result in different persistence predictions, especially in the case of inter-specific competition. The study also serves to illustrate the shortcomings of defining persistence in relation to a specific time horizon. A more mathematically rigorous interpretation of persistence in stochastic models can be found by considering the quasi-stationary distribution (QSD) and the associated measure of mean time to extinction from quasi-stationarity. In Chapter 4, we investigate the contribution of individual patches to extinction times and metapopulation size, and provide predictors of patch value that can be calculated easily from readily available data. In Chapter 5, we focus directly on the QSD of heterogeneous systems. Through simulation, we investigate possible compressions of the QSD that could be used when standard numerical approaches fail due to high system dimensionality, and provide guidance on appropriate compression choices for different purposes. In Chapter 6, we consider deterministic models and investigate the effect of introducing additional patch states on the persistence threshold. We suggest a possible model that might be appropriate for making predictions that extend to stochastic systems. By considering a family of models as limiting cases of a more general model, we demonstrate a novel approach for deriving quantities of interest for linked models that should help guide modelling decisions. Finally, in Chapter 7, we draw out implications for conservation biology and disease control, as well as for future work on biological persistence.

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Clavera-Gispert, Roger. "Forward numerical modelling of carbonate basins: an ecological approach." Doctoral thesis, Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg Universitaetsbibliothek "Georgius Agricola", 2016. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:105-qucosa-213603.

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This thesis presents a new stratigraphic forward numerical model to simulate the carbonate production of marine sedimentary basin through ecological model which is implemented in the SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC program. This ecological model is based on the Generalized Lotka Voltera equations that model the population evolution of species. These populations are controlled by biological factors (growth rate, carrying capacity and interaction among species), and by the environmental conditions (light, energy of the medium, nutrients, bottom slope and concentration of clastic sediments in suspension) which are combined forming a unique environmental factor that downscale the intrinsic rate of growth. The algorithm to apply in the code uses an explicit Runge-Kutta numerical method of order (4)5 to solve the differential equations formulated in the ecological model. Finally, a 3D visualization output files for the interpretation and analysis are generated using the VTK format. The obtained code has been applied in three sample experiments in order to discuss the possibilities and the limitations of the code. The first example is the model of a theoretical basin. The results are compared with real cases. The second example is an actual basin sited in western Mediterranean Sea. The results are discussed to show the applicability and the limitations of the model. The third example applies several configurations to the Aptian Galve sub-basin (Maestrat Basin, E Iberia), allowing to define the environmental conditions.

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Macpherson, Morag Fiona. "Modelling population and disease dynamics in complex ecological systems." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/2824.

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Mathematical models are a theoretical tool used to understand ecological processes. In this thesis we create mathematical frameworks to describe and evaluate four ecological systems. In the first case study we extend a host-pathogen framework to include a maternal effect which increases the disease resistance of offspring when the maternal environment is poor. Maternal effects impacting life-history traits have been shown to increase the propensity for population cycles. Our contrasting results show maternal effects acting on disease resistance stabilise host-pathogen systems. The second case study examines the impact infection may have on population estimates using Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) studies. We show that the estimates using the statistical Program Capture are accurate when capture rates are infection dependent. The final two case studies use spatial, individual-based, stochastic models to simulate disease spread and the colonisation of the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vul- garis) on real-life landscapes. Using novel techniques we highlight the role habitat connectivity has on the dispersal routes which influence the spread of disease and re-population dynamics. Moreover the inclusion of seasonality shows that squirrel population dynamics are driven by the multi-year signal of resources.

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Books on the topic "Ecological Modelling"

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Fundamentals of ecological modelling. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1986.

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Jørgensen, S. E. Fundamentals of ecological modelling. 2nd ed. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1994.

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Hui, Cang, Pietro Landi, Henintsoa Onivola Minoarivelo, and Andriamihaja Ramanantoanina. Ecological and Evolutionary Modelling. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92150-1.

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Jopp, Fred, Hauke Reuter, and Broder Breckling, eds. Modelling Complex Ecological Dynamics. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05029-9.

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Proops, John L. R., 1947- and Safonov Paul, eds. Modelling in ecological economics. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2005.

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G, Bendoricchio, ed. Fundamentals of ecological modelling. 3rd ed. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2001.

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Jørgensen, Sven Erik. Fundamentals of ecological modelling. 2nd ed. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1994.

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1934-, Jørgensen Sven Erik, ed. Thermodynamics and ecological modelling. Boca Raton, Fla: Lewis Publishers, 2001.

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Jørgensen, S. E. Fundamentals of ecological modelling. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1986.

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Jørgensen, Sven Erik. Ecological modelling: An introduction. Southampton: WIT, 2009.

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Book chapters on the topic "Ecological Modelling"

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Jørgensen, S. E. "Ecological Indicators and Ecological Modelling." In Ecological Indicators, 201–9. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4659-7_14.

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Veste, M., C. Sommer, S. W. Breckle, and T. Littmann. "Standing Biomass and its Modelling." In Ecological Studies, 377–83. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75498-5_26.

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Recknagel, Friedrich, Dragi Kocev, Hongqing Cao, Christina Castelo Branco, Ricardo Minoti, and Saso Dzeroski. "Inferential Modelling of Population Dynamics." In Ecological Informatics, 161–88. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59928-1_9.

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Shmelev, Stanislav E. "Regional Waste Management: Multicriteria Modelling." In Ecological Economics, 195–224. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1972-9_11.

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Weber, Gerhard E. "Modelling Nutrient Fluxes in Floodplain Lakes." In Ecological Studies, 109–17. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03416-3_5.

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Dormann, Carsten F. "Modelling Species’ Distributions." In Modelling Complex Ecological Dynamics, 179–96. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05029-9_13.

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Renetzeder, Christa, Thomas Wrbka, Sander Mücher, Michiel van Eupen, and Michiel Kiers. "Does Landscape Structure Reveal Ecological Sustainability?" In Landscape Modelling, 159–70. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3052-8_12.

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Giske, Jarl, Hein Rune Skjoldal, and Dag Slagstad. "Ecological Modelling for Fisheries." In Contributions to Economics, 11–68. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-99793-8_2.

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Jopp, Fred, Broder Breckling, Hauke Reuter, and Donald L. DeAngelis. "Perspectives in Ecological Modelling." In Modelling Complex Ecological Dynamics, 341–47. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05029-9_24.

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Fasiolo, Matteo, and Simon N. Wood. "ABC in Ecological Modelling." In Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation, 597–622. Boca Raton, Florida : CRC Press, [2019]: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315117195-20.

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Conference papers on the topic "Ecological Modelling"

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Lawrence, Ian, and Michael Harper. "Ecological Modelling Strategies." In Specialty Symposium on Urban Drainage Modeling at the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 2001. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40583(275)55.

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"Evaluating ecological niche modelling techniques." In 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2015.a3.dekker.

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MIHAILOVIĆ, DRAGUTIN. "ECOLOGICAL MODELLING: CHALLENGES AT A CROSSROADS." In Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Interdisciplinary Regional Research. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812834409_0020.

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Pereira, Antonio, Luis Paulo Reis, and Pedro Duarte. "ECOSIMNET: A Framework For Ecological Simulations." In 23rd European Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2009-0219-0225.

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"Calibration of the Floodplain Ecological Response Model." In 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.tan203.

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Pereira, A., P. Duarte, and L. P. Reis. "An Integrated Ecological Modelling And Decision Support Methodology." In 21st Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2007-0497.

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"Collaborative intelligence for modelling marine social-ecological systems." In 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.spillias.

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"A hydrodynamic-ecological model for Lake Rerewhakaaitu." In 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2015.b7.parshotam.

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Chernyshenko, Serge V. "COENOME Model: Elementary Ecological Cycle As A Dynamical Unit." In 26th Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2012-0143-0149.

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"Integrating biological degradation potential into ecological risk assessment." In 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.g6.tang.

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Reports on the topic "Ecological Modelling"

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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.

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Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.

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Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka, Erik Fridell, Jaakko Kukkonen, Jana Moldanova, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Achilleas Grigoriadis, Maria Moustaka, et al. Environmental impacts of exhaust gas cleaning systems in the Baltic Sea, North Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea area. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361898.

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Description: Shipping is responsible for a range of different pressures affecting air quality, climate, and the marine environment. Most social and economic analyses of shipping have focused on air pollution assessment and how shipping may impact climate change and human health. This risks that policies may be biased towards air pollution and climate change, whilst impacts on the marine environment are not as well known. One example is the sulfur regulation introduced in January 2020, which requires shipowners to use a compliant fuel with a sulfur content of 0.5% (0.1% in SECA regions) or use alternative compliance options (Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems, EGCS) that are effective in reducing sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions to the atmosphere. The EGCS cleaning process results in large volumes of discharged water that includes a wide range of contaminants. Although regulations target SOx removal, other pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), metals and combustion particles are removed from the exhaust to the wash water and subsequently discharged to the marine environment. Based on dilution series of the Whole Effluent Testing (WET), the impact of the EGCS effluent on marine invertebrate species and on phytoplankton was found to vary between taxonomic groups, and between different stages of the invertebrate life cycle. Invertebrates were more affected than phytoplankton, and the most sensitive endpoint detected in the present project was the fertilisation of sea urchin eggs, which were negatively affected at a sample dilution of 1 : 1,000,000. Dilutions of 1: 100,000 were harmful to early development of several of the tested species, including mussels, polychaetes, and crustaceans. The observed effects at these low concentrations of EGCS effluent were reduced egg production, and deformations and abnormal development of the larvae of the species. The ecotoxicological data produced in the EMERGE project were used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentration values. Corresponding modelling studies revealed that the EGCS effluent can be considered as a single entity for 2-10 days from the time of discharge, depending on the environmental conditions like sea currents, winds, and temperature. Area 10-30 km outside the shipping lanes will be prone to contaminant concentrations corresponding to 1 : 1,000,000 dilution which was deemed harmful for most sensitive endpoints of WET experiments. Studies for the Saronikos Gulf (Aegean Sea) revealed that the EGCS effluent dilution rate exceeded the 1 : 1,000,000 ratio 70% of the time at a distance of about 10 km from the port. This was also observed for 15% of the time within a band of 10 km wide along the shipping lane extending 500 km away from the port of Piraeus. When mortality of adult specimens of one of the species (copepod Acartia tonsa) was used as an endpoint it was found to be 3-4 orders of magnitude less sensitive to EGCS effluent than early life stage endpoints like fertilisation of eggs and larval development. Mortality of Acartia tonsa is commonly used in standard protocols for ecotoxicological studies, but our data hence shows that it seriously underestimates the ecologically relevant toxicity of the effluent. The same is true for two other commonly used and recommended endpoints, phytoplankton growth and inhibition of bioluminescence in marine bacteria. Significant toxic effects were reached only after addition of 20-40% effluent. A marine environmental risk assessment was performed for the Öresund region for baseline year 2018, where Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of open loop effluent discharge water were compared to the PNEC value. The results showed modelled concentrations of open loop effluent in large areas to be two to three orders of magnitude higher than the derived PNEC value, yielding a Risk Characterisation Ratio of 500-5000, which indicates significant environmental risk. Further, it should be noted that between 2018-2022 the number of EGCS vessels more than quadrupled in the area from 178 to 781. In this work, the EGCS discharges of the fleet in the Baltic Sea, North Sea, the English Channel, and the Mediterranean Sea area were studied in detail. The assessments of impacts described in this document were performed using a baseline year 2018 and future scenarios. These were made for the year 2050, based on different projections of transport volumes, also considering the fuel efficiency requirements and ship size developments. From the eight scenarios developed, two extremes were chosen for impact studies which illustrate the differences between a very high EGCS usage and a future without the need for EGCS while still compliant to IMO initial GHG strategy. The scenario without EGCS leads to 50% reduction of GHG emissions using low sulfur fuels, LNG, and methanol. For the high EGCS adoption scenario in 2050, about a third of the fleet sailing the studied sea areas would use EGCS and effluent discharge volumes would be increased tenfold for the Baltic Sea and hundredfold for the Mediterranean Sea when compared to 2018 baseline discharges. Some of the tested species, mainly the copepods, have a central position in pelagic food webs as they feed on phytoplankton and are themselves the main staple food for most fish larvae and for some species of adult fish, e.g., herring. The direct effect of the EGSE on invertebrates will therefore have an important indirect effect on the fish feeding on them. Effects are greatest in and near shipping lanes. Many important shipping lanes run close to shore and archipelago areas, and this also puts the sensitive shallow water coastal ecosystems at risk. It should be noted that no studies on sub-lethal effects of early 19 life stages in fish were included in the EMERGE project, nor are there any available data on this in the scientific literature. The direct toxic effects on fish at the expected concentrations of EGCS effluent are therefore largely unknown. According to the regional modelling studies, some of the contaminants will end up in sediments along the coastlines and archipelagos. The documentation of the complex chemical composition of EGCS effluent is in sharp contrast to the present legislation on threshold levels for content in EGCS effluent discharged from ships, which includes but a few PAHs, pH, and turbidity. Traditional assessments of PAHs in environmental and marine samples focus only on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) list of 16 priority PAHs, which includes only parent PAHs. Considering the complex PAHs assemblages and the importance of other related compounds, it is important to extend the EPA list to include alkyl-PAHs to obtain a representative monitoring of EGCS effluent and to assess the impact of its discharges into the marine environment. An economic evaluation of the installation and operational costs of EGCS was conducted noting the historical fuel price differences of high and low sulfur fuels. Equipment types, installation dates and annual fuel consumption from global simulations indicated that 51% of the global EGCS fleet had already reached break-even by the end of 2022, resulting in a summarised profit of 4.7 billion €2019. Within five years after the initial installation, more than 95% of the ships with open loop EGCS reach break-even. The pollutant loads from shipping come both through atmospheric deposition and direct discharges. This underlines the need of minimising the release of contaminants by using fuels which reduce the air emissions of harmful components without creating new pollution loads through discharges. Continued use of EGCS and high sulfur fossil fuels will delay the transition to more sustainable options. The investments made on EGCS enable ships to continue using fossil fuels instead of transitioning away from them as soon as possible as agreed in the 2023 Dubai Climate Change conference. Continued carriage of residual fuels also increases the risk of dire environmental consequences whenever accidental releases of oil to the sea occur.

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Rural NEET Youth Policy Brief - Youth and Mobility in EU Rural Areas. COST Action 18213: Rural NEET Youth Network: Modeling the risks underlying rural NEETs social exclusion, May 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.15847/cisrnyn.neetpbym.2022.05.

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This policy brief is based upon findings from the COST Action CA18213: Rural NEET Youth Network: Modelling the Risks Underlying Rural NEETs Social Ex- clusion. This network brings together researchers and practitioners from 31 countries and aims at developing a model of comprehension for rural NEETs’ social exclusion risks and protective factors based on a bio-ecological model. The three specific goals of the action are: 1. upholding future research capacity, with an emphasis on Early Career Investigators, and Inclusiveness Tar- get Countries; 2. creating a rural NEETs’ online observatory; and, 3. fostering use of knowledge by policy makers and practitioners.

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