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1
Isik, Ercan, Coskun Sagir, Zuhal Tozlu, and Umit Salim Ustaoglu. "Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey." Earth Sciences Research Journal 23, no. 3 (July 1, 2019): 237–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255.
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Predicting the outcomes of earthquakes before they occur is one of the fundamental components of modern disaster management. Loss estimation analyses have an important place at the assessment stage of earthquakes and in estimation of losses that earthquakes may lead to. With these analyses, it is possible to access information that is relevant to potential damages and losses. In this paper, loss estimation analyses were carried out by using the earthquake scenario which foresaw a previous earthquake that was experienced in an around Kırşehir which is seismically active and located in the Central Anatolia Region in Turkey. The 1938 Akpınar earthquake which occurred in and around the province of Kırşehir was taken into consideration as an earthquak escenario, and loss estimation analyses were conducted for this earthquake scenario. In this paper, significant contributions will be made for preparation of an earthquake master plan and risk management plan for Kırşehir. Besides, studies on reduction of earthquake losses in the region may utilise these results.
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Maharjan, Sony, and Shobha Shrestha. "An Assessment of Earthquake Risk in Thecho of Kathmandu Valley Nepal: Scenario and Reality." Geographical Journal of Nepal 11 (April 3, 2018): 127–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/gjn.v11i0.19553.
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Natural disaster cannot be stopped but its effect can be minimized or avoided by adopting technology and necessary human adjustment. Earthquake is a natural event which occurs without early warning signs. Computer based earthquake scenarios are used worldwide to describe and estimate the damage from potential earthquakes. The current study is an attempt to explore potential risk with respect to physical infrastructure and assess modeled and actual physical damage and human loss caused by different earthquake scenario and actual 2015 earthquake event in Thecho of Kathmandu valley. The earthquake scenario is based on two nearest fault lines. Risk Assessment Tools for the Diagnosis of Urban Seismic Risk (RADIUS) method has been applied for estimation of potential building damage and casualties..The research has adopted integrated approach using secondary and primary data sources such as field observation, key informant survey and building survey through purposive random sampling.The study found that potential building damage estimated by RADIUS for Gorkha 2015 earthquake scenario and North-west (Khokana) are lower than the actual post-earthquake assessment whereas North earthquake scenario resulted higher loss. Actual damage caused by 2015 earthquake compared to modeled damage from RADIUS is found higher because additional damaged were made by successive aftershocks. Spatial distribution of potential building damage for earthquake scenarios and actual 2015 earthquake event is also variable. North-Nuwakot Earthquake Scenario resulted more hazardous than the North-Khokana scenario though the location of epicenter is relatively farther with high intensity. The study concluded that though earthquake occurrence and disaster is still less predictable risk assessment tools like RADIUS and mitigation measures based on such is important for reducing risk of earthquake disaster.The Geographical Journal of NepalVol. 11: 127-136, 2018
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Maeda, Takahiro, and Hiroyuki Fujiwara. "Seismic Hazard Visualization from Big Simulation Data: Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data." Journal of Disaster Research 12, no. 2 (March 16, 2017): 233–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2017.p0233.
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This paper describes a method of extracting the relation between the ground-motion characteristics of each area and a seismic source model, based on ground-motion simulation data output in planar form for many earthquake scenarios, and the construction of a parallel distributed processing system where this method is implemented. The extraction is realized using two-stage clustering. In the first stage, the ground-motion indices and scenario parameters are used as input data to cluster the earthquake scenarios within each evaluation mesh. In the second stage, the meshes are clustered based on the similarity of earthquake-scenario clustering. Because the mesh clusters can be correlated to the geographical space, it is possible to extract the relation between the ground-motion characteristics of each area and the scenario parameters by examining the relation between the mesh clusters and scenario clusters obtained by the two-stage clustering. The results are displayed visually; they are saved as GeoTIFF image files. The system was applied to the long-period ground-motion simulation data for hypothetical megathrust earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. This confirmed that the relation between the extracted ground-motion characteristics of each area and scenario parameters is in agreement with the results of ground-motion simulations.
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Wirth, Erin A., Alex Grant, Nasser A. Marafi, and Arthur D. Frankel. "Ensemble ShakeMaps for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 1 (November 18, 2020): 199–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200240.
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Abstract We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 (M 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground-shaking estimates are based on 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, which were selected using a logic-tree approach that varied the hypocenter location, down-dip rupture limit, slip distribution, and location of strong-motion-generating subevents. In a previous work, Frankel et al. (2018) used a hybrid approach (i.e., 3D deterministic simulations for frequencies <1 Hz and stochastic synthetics for frequencies >1 Hz) and uniform site amplification factors to create broadband seismograms from this set of 30 earthquake scenarios. Here, we expand on this work by computing site-specific amplification factors for the Pacific Northwest and applying these factors to the ground-motion estimates derived from Frankel et al. (2018). In addition, we use empirical ground-motion models (GMMs) to expand the ground-shaking estimates beyond the original model extent of Frankel et al. (2018) to cover all of Washington State, Oregon, northern California, and southern British Columbia to facilitate the use of these ensemble ShakeMaps in region-wide risk assessments and scenario planning exercises. Using this updated set of 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, we present ensemble ShakeMaps for the median, 2nd, 16th, 84th, and 98th percentile ground-motion intensity measures. Whereas traditional scenario ShakeMaps are based on a single hypothetical earthquake rupture, our ensemble ShakeMaps take advantage of a logic-tree approach to estimating ground motions from multiple earthquake rupture scenarios. In addition, 3D earthquake simulations capture important features such as strong ground-motion amplification in the Pacific Northwest’s sedimentary basins, which are not well represented in the empirical GMMs that compose traditional scenario ShakeMaps. Overall, our results highlight the importance of strong-motion-generating subevents for coastal sites, as well as the amplification of long-period ground shaking in deep sedimentary basins, compared with previous scenario ShakeMaps for Cascadia.
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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Sho Akagi, and Toshihiko Hayakawa. "Cluster Analysis of the Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data: Application of the Sagami Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 3 (March 28, 2019): 435–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0435.
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A clustering method that classifies earthquake scenarios and the local area on the basis of similarities in the spatial distribution of ground motion was applied to long-period ground-motion data computed by a seismic wave propagation simulation. The simulation utilized a large number of seismic source models and a three-dimensional velocity structure model in which megathrust earthquakes in the Sagami Trough were assumed. The relationship between the clusters, earthquake scenario parameters, and the velocity structure model was examined. In addition, the relationship between the earthquake scenario clusters for a case in which actual strong-motion observation points were treated as a mesh and those for a case in which an entire set of meshes was investigated, and a spatial interpolation method that estimated a ground-motion distribution from strong-motion observation data was examined.
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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Toshihiko Hayakawa, Satsuki Shimono, and Sho Akagi. "Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data with Application to Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 2 (March 19, 2018): 254–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0254.
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We developed a clustering method combining principal component analysis and the k-means algorithm, which classifies earthquake scenarios based on the similarity of the spatial distribution of earthquake ground-motion simulation data generated for many earthquake scenarios, and applied it to long-period ground-motion simulation data for Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake scenarios. Values for peak ground velocity and relative velocity response at approximately 80,000 locations in 369 earthquake scenarios were represented by 15 principal components each, and earthquake scenarios were categorized into 30 clusters. In addition, based on clustering results, we determined that extracting relationships between principal components and scenario parameters is possible. Furthermore, by utilizing these relationships, it may be possible to easily estimate the approximate ground-motion distribution from the principal components of arbitrary sets of scenario parameters.
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Ma, Feng, Guangsheng Zhao, Xingyu Gao, and Xiaojing Niu. "Spatial Distribution of Tsunami Hazard Posed by Earthquakes along the Manila Trench." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 10 (October 7, 2022): 1449. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10101449.
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Quantitative probability has been computed for the tsunami hazard posed by earthquakes from the Manila Trench, which has been regarded as a huge threat in the South China Sea. This study provides a spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard covering the affected area with a spatial resolution of 0.1° for disaster prevention of islands and continental coasts. The quantitative probability of the tsunami hazard is computed by an efficient model, which can realize a large amount of potential tsunami scenarios analysis in order to consider the randomness and uncertainty in earthquake magnitude, source location and focal depth. In the model, for each potential tsunami scenario, the occurrence probability of the corresponding earthquake and the intensity of tsunami waves at each target location are computed. The occurrence probability of each scenario is estimated based on the historical earthquake records. Then, the subsequent tsunami caused by each scenario is computed using a new, efficient approach, instead of direct simulation using an ocean dynamics model. A total of 1,380,000 scenarios are computed in order to obtain a stable statistical result. Based on the results, the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard is discussed and high-hazard regions along the coast have been identified.
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Byers, William G. "Railroad Damage Scenario Development." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (May 2011): 477–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3574223.
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The approaches necessary for estimating earthquake effects on railroads are different for developing design criteria or post-earthquake response policies and for developing railroad damage scenarios. In developing design criteria or post-earthquake response policies, the probability of ground motions exceeding a particular level is a primary concern. Developing damage scenarios, on the other hand, involves describing hypothetical effects for assumed ground motions. The identification of potential problems is the greatest benefit of disaster scenario development to railroads. Developing the Great Southern California ShakeOut Scenario revealed areas in which advance planning and arrangements by the affected railroads could reduce delays in repair work or improve the efficiency of operation during recovery. These include arranging emergency waivers for permits and similar governmental requirements, developing arrangements to accommodate earthquake-related conflicts between commuter and freight operations, advance arrangements for emergency use of helicopters, and physically securing equipment at the San Bernardino dispatching center to reduce damage.
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Babayev, G., A. Ismail-Zadeh, and J. L. Le Mouël. "Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 12 (December 22, 2010): 2697–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2697-2010.
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Abstract. A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations), and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan) to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA), vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence), and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.
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Kiratzi, A., Z. Roumelioti, Ch Benetatos, N. Theodulidis, A. Savvaidis, A. Panou, I. N. Tziavos, et al. "SEISIMPACT-THES: A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE AFFECTING THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT OF THE PREFECTURE OF THESSALONIKI." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 36, no. 3 (January 1, 2004): 1412. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.16529.
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In the framework of the "SEISIMPACT-THES" project (Koutoupes et al., 2004; Savvaidis et al., 2004) a GIS database has been designed to include information on a wide range of components related to seismic risk within the broader area of the prefecture of Thessaloniki. One of these components refers to the distribution of strong ground motion produced by large earthquakes and the ability of a potential future user of the database to retrieve information regarding the distribution of strong ground motion from past destructive earthquakes in the area of Thessaloniki, as well as relative information for realistic future scenario earthquakes in the same area. The selection of future scenario earthquakes that may affect this urban region of interest is based on a combined review of historical data, previous probabilistic and deterministic hazard assessments, seismotectonic and microseismicity studies, relocated seismicity in northern Greece and the experience gained from worldwide research. In this study we present the results from hypothetical rupture of one fault that is located at the suburbs of the city, the Asvestochori fault. Empirical relations applicable to Greece (Papazachos & Papazachou 2003), as well as seismicity information are combined to determine the dimensions of the scenario earthquake source. Strong ground motion for the selected scenario is simulated using the stochastic method for finite faults (Beresnev and Atkinson, 1997). Uncertainties due to unknown parameters such as the rupture initiation point and the distribution of slip on the fault plane are taken into account by examining a large number of random scenarios. The average values from these multiple scenarios are then used to compile maps of strong ground motion parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). Although the examined scenario earthquake is moderate in size (Mw 5.2), the level of the resulting strong ground motion parameters is indicative of the potential destructiveness of the examined source. Due to the simplicity in the underlying assumptions of the stochastic method, the results of this study are a first-order approximation to the problem of defining expected shaking in the wider area of Thessaloniki. Other strong motion simulation methods of more deterministic character will also be applied for the same purpose in the framework of the SEISIMPACT-THES project.
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Tarbali, Karim, and Brendon A. Bradley. "Representative ground-motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 47, no. 4 (December 31, 2014): 231–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.47.4.231-252.
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In this paper, representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand are developed. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch city, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa and Ohariu fault ruptures in Wellington city. For each considered scenario rupture, ensembles of 20 and 7 ground motions are selected using the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach, ensuring that the ground motion ensembles represent both the mean and distribution of ground motion intensity which such scenarios could impose. These scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”
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Robinson, Tom R., Nicholas J. Rosser, Alexander L. Densmore, Katie J. Oven, Surya N. Shrestha, and Ramesh Guragain. "Use of scenario ensembles for deriving seismic risk." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 41 (September 24, 2018): E9532—E9541. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807433115.
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High death tolls from recent earthquakes show that seismic risk remains high globally. While there has been much focus on seismic hazard, large uncertainties associated with exposure and vulnerability have led to more limited analyses of the potential impacts of future earthquakes. We argue that as both exposure and vulnerability are reducible factors of risk, assessing their importance and variability allows for prioritization of the most effective disaster risk-reduction (DRR) actions. We address this through earthquake ensemble modeling, using the example of Nepal. We model fatalities from 90 different scenario earthquakes and establish whether impacts are specific to certain scenario earthquakes or occur irrespective of the scenario. Our results show that for most districts in Nepal impacts are not specific to the particular characteristics of a single earthquake, and that total modeled impacts are skewed toward the minimum estimate. These results suggest that planning for the worst-case scenario in Nepal may place an unnecessarily large burden on the limited resources available for DRR. We also show that the most at-risk districts are predominantly in rural western Nepal, with ∼9.5 million Nepalis inhabiting districts with higher seismic risk than Kathmandu. Our proposed approach provides a holistic consideration of seismic risk for informing contingency planning and allows the relative importance of the reducible components of risk (exposure and vulnerability) to be estimated, highlighting factors that can be targeted most effectively. We propose this approach for informing contingency planning, especially in locations where information on the likelihood of future earthquakes is inadequate.
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Hashemi, M., and A. A. Alesheikh. "Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 12 (December 17, 2012): 3659–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3659-2012.
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Abstract. Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-spread spatial analysis frameworks will expedite the data transferring process. In this study, the earthquake damage assessment (EDA) software tool is developed as an embedded extension within a GIS (geographic information system) environment for the city of Tehran, Iran. This GIS-based extension provides users with a familiar environment to estimate and observe the probable damages and fatalities of a deterministic earthquake scenario. The productivity of this tool is later demonstrated for southern Karoon parish, Region 10, Tehran. Three case studies for three active faults in the area and a comparison of the results with other research substantiated the reliability of this tool for additional earthquake scenarios.
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Sharma, Shweta, and B. K. Rastogi. "Earthquake-induced damage scenario simulation." Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 23 (August 2021): 100585. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2021.100585.
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Singh, Harbans, and S. K. Som. "Earthquake triggered landslide–Indian scenario." Journal of the Geological Society of India 87, no. 1 (January 2016): 105–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12594-016-0378-9.
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Thiel, Charles C. "Scenario loss earthquake damageability analysis." Structural Design of Tall Buildings 8, no. 4 (December 1999): 261–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1794(199912)8:4<261::aid-tal131>3.0.co;2-u.
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Ghasemi, Mohammad, Sadra Karimzadeh, Masashi Matsuoka, and Bakhtiar Feizizadeh. "What Would Happen If the M 7.3 (1721) and M 7.4 (1780) Historical Earthquakes of Tabriz City (NW Iran) Occurred Again in 2021?" ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 10 (September 30, 2021): 657. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10100657.
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Tabriz is located in the northwest of Iran. Two huge earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.4 and 7.3 occurred there in 1780 and 1721. These earthquakes caused considerable damage and casualties in Tabriz. Using the method of scenario building, we aim to investigate what would happen if such earthquakes occurred in 2021. This scenario building was carried out using deterministic and GIS-oriented techniques to find the levels of damage and casualties that would occur. This procedure included two steps. In the first step, a database of factors affecting the destructive power of earthquakes was prepared. In the next step, hierarchical analysis was used to weigh the data, and then the weighted data were combined with an earthquake intensity map. The obtained results were used to predict the earthquake intensity in Tabriz. According to our results, the earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 that occurred in 1721 caused huge destruction in the north of Tabriz, as this earthquake occurred inside the site. However, this earthquake caused minimal damage to the south of the city owing to the geological situation of this area of Tabriz. The earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 that occurred in 1780 caused less damage because of its distance from the site. In the third step of this analysis, the vulnerability of buildings and the population were examined. According to the estimates, District 4 would experience the highest damage rate in the earthquake of 1721, with 15,477 buildings destroyed, while this area would have a lower damage rate in the earthquake that occurred in 1780. The total casualties in Tabriz would number 152,092 and 505 people in the earthquakes of 1721 and 1780, respectively.
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Treiman, Jerome A., and Daniel J. Ponti. "Estimating Surface Faulting Impacts from the ShakeOut Scenario Earthquake." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (May 2011): 315–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3583676.
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An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture.
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Mas, Erick, Bruno Adriano, Nelson Pulido, Cesar Jimenez, and Shunichi Koshimura. "Simulation of Tsunami Inundation in Central Peru from Future Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 9, no. 6 (December 1, 2014): 961–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0961.
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We estimated, from twelve scenarios of potential megathrust earthquakes, the tsunami impact on the Lima-Callao region in Central Peru. In addition, we conducted hazard mapping using the local envelope of the maximum inundation simulated in these scenarios. The deterministic approach is supported by the decades of geodetic measurements in this area that characterize the interseismic strain build up since historical megathrust earthquakes. The earthquake scenarios for simulation proposed in [1] introduce spatially correlated short-wavelength slip heterogeneities to a first slip model in [2] calculated from the interseismic coupling (ISC) distribution in Central Peru. The ISC was derived from GPS monitoring data as well as from historical earthquake information. The results of strong ground motion simulations in [1] reported that the slip scenario with the deepest average peak values along the strike (Mw= 8.86) generates the largest PGA in the Lima-Callao area. In this study, we found from tsunami simulation results that the slip model with the largest peak slip at a shallow depth (Mw= 8.87) yielded the highest tsunami inundation. Such differences in maximum scenarios for peak ground acceleration and tsunami height reveal the importance of a comprehensive assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards in order to provide plausible worstcase scenarios for disaster risk management and education.
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Sharma, Ajanta, and Farha Zaman. "The Great Assam Earthquake of 1950: A Historical Review." Senhri Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 4, no. 1 (June 30, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.36110/sjms.2019.04.01.001.
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Northeast India is prone to major earthquake events due to its geographical and tectonic settings. Recurrence of the earthquakes in this part of India is frequent and associated with devastating events. Earthquake scenario in the region is very dangerous as the unplanned settlements with rise in population increased the vulnerability of human life. To understand such a risk and variability in human life and changes in natural dynamics; it is essential to know and study the past earthquake events. In northeast India, the last most devastating earthquake was the great Assam earthquake of 15th August 1950. This event brought different types of changes in the physiography which, results in havoc among the people. The changes in the river course, landslides, liquefaction and river bank changes are most influential factors in both human and natural arrangements. This brought devastation in human lives that resulted into several unsettled socio-economic issues. After the earthquake, Government and people tried together to overcome such trauma, although lack of preparedness caused some problems. This is the time to review all the scenario of major earthquakes in northeast India and realise that the necessity of preparedness is very important. The paper attempts to review the impact of the earthquake on different spheres: geographical, social and economic.
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BALENDRA, T., Z. J. LI, K. H. TAN, and C. G. KOH. "VULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS TO LONG DISTANCE EARTHQUAKES FROM SUMATRA." Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami 01, no. 01 (March 2007): 71–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793431107000055.
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This study focuses on seismic vulnerability of shear wall – frame buildings in Singapore when they are subjected to far field effects of earthquakes in Sumatra. For this purpose, the demand curve was obtained based on the accelerograms of bedrock motions due to the worst earthquake scenario in Sumatra, and soil profiles of the selected sites. The recent two strong earthquakes in Sumatra were considered when the design earthquake was identified. On the other hand, the capacity curve was determined by a reliable and elegant analytical model validated by experimental results. By comparing the demand curve and capacity curve, seismic vulnerability of buildings is evaluated through a case study of a 25 story shear wall-frame building, representing the typical high rise building in Singapore. The case study reveals that high rise buildings in Singapore may suffer damages due to the worst earthquake scenario.
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Yenice, Zeren D., and Funda Samanlioglu. "A Multi-Objective Stochastic Model for an Earthquake Relief Network." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2020 (January 15, 2020): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1910632.
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Earthquake relief network involves storage and distribution of relief aid to people in need. In this paper, a new stochastic multi-objective mixed integer mathematical model is developed and implemented in Kadikoy municipality of Istanbul, Turkey in order to configure part of the earthquake relief network. The aim of the model is to help decision makers decide on the locations of storage areas for shelters pre-earthquake and distribution of shelters from these areas to temporary shelter areas post-earthquake while minimizing earthquake scenario-specific total expected distribution distance, total expected earthquake damage risk factor of storage areas and expected total penalty cost related to unsatisfied demand at temporary shelter areas, simultaneously. In the model, storage area capacity and coverage distance restrictions are taken into consideration. The data related to potential storage areas and shelter locations were obtained from Kadikoy municipality of Istanbul and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). The earthquake damage risk factors were determined based on possible earthquake scenarios given in Japan International Cooperation Agency’s (JICA) report. Four event scenarios with two different earthquake scenario likelihoods were considered and sample efficient solutions from the Pareto frontier were obtained implementing the normalized (scaled) weighted sum method.
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Ehrenewerth, Jan. "A University-Wide Earthquake Disaster Drill." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 2, no. 1-4 (1986): 157–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00030685.
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Of all the natural disasters, none has a greater potential to cause widespread casualties and destruction of property than a large earthquake centered in an urban area. This scenario was tragically illustrated in 1976 when two large earthquakes occurred in heavily populated areas. In February, an earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter Scale struck Guatemala and left 30,000 dead and 100,000 people injured. In July ofthat same year, a Richter 7.8 earthquake devastated the city of Tangshan, China. The earthquake destroyed over 90% of the buildings in that city and caused the deaths of over 240,000 people. Since earthquakes strike without warning, preparation and disaster planning are mandatory in order to reduce injury and mortality.
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Poggi, Valerio, Chiara Scaini, Luca Moratto, Gabriele Peressi, Paolo Comelli, Pier Luigi Bragato, and Stefano Parolai. "Rapid Damage Scenario Assessment for Earthquake Emergency Management." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 4 (March 10, 2021): 2513–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200245.
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Abstract The rapid availability of reliable damage statistics, after the occurrence of a major earthquake, is an essential mitigation strategy to drive and support emergency intervention operations. Unfortunately, the latency in collecting and organizing actual damage information has a substantial impact on the efficiency of the initial phases of the intervention framework. To speedup preliminary management operations, a quick, although, coarse prediction of the expected damage is highly desirable. For this purpose, we have developed a system for rapid damage estimation. The system, presently implemented for the Friuli Venezia Giulia region, relies on the existing seismological monitoring infrastructure of the National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), which is responsible for delivering earthquake alerts in northeastern Italy. In case of a major earthquake event, the predicted damage is automatically computed using the OpenQuake software engine by means of ad hoc structural exposure and fragility models developed for the region. Damage calculations rely on a combination of actual observed ground motion from the stations of the OGS seismological network and empirical prediction using the ShakeMaps software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The resulting damage scenario, aggregated at municipality level, is finally delivered to the control room of the regional civil protection in support of early intervention activities. Although, the system is presently still under active development, a number of experimental trials have confirmed the reliability and the usefulness of the proposed approach. We are confident that the current research will contribute in mitigating the impact of possible future damaging earthquakes by (1) guiding targeted postevent emergency interventions, (2) increasing the preparedness and response capacity of emergency teams and population through preparatory training activities, and (3) supporting the decision-making process during the recovery phase, hence enhancing resilience.
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Madden, E. H., M. Bader, J. Behrens, Y. van Dinther, A.-A. Gabriel, L. Rannabauer, T. Ulrich, C. Uphoff, S. Vater, and I. van Zelst. "Linked 3-D modelling of megathrust earthquake-tsunami events: from subduction to tsunami run up." Geophysical Journal International 224, no. 1 (October 10, 2020): 487–516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa484.
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SUMMARY How does megathrust earthquake rupture govern tsunami behaviour? Recent modelling advances permit evaluation of the influence of 3-D earthquake dynamics on tsunami genesis, propagation, and coastal inundation. Here, we present and explore a virtual laboratory in which the tsunami source arises from 3-D coseismic seafloor displacements generated by a dynamic earthquake rupture model. This is achieved by linking open-source earthquake and tsunami computational models that follow discontinuous Galerkin schemes and are facilitated by highly optimized parallel algorithms and software. We present three scenarios demonstrating the flexibility and capabilities of linked modelling. In the first two scenarios, we use a dynamic earthquake source including time-dependent spontaneous failure along a 3-D planar fault surrounded by homogeneous rock and depth-dependent, near-lithostatic stresses. We investigate how slip to the trench influences tsunami behaviour by simulating one blind and one surface-breaching rupture. The blind rupture scenario exhibits distinct earthquake characteristics (lower slip, shorter rupture duration, lower stress drop, lower rupture speed), but the tsunami is similar to that from the surface-breaching rupture in run-up and length of impacted coastline. The higher tsunami-generating efficiency of the blind rupture may explain how there are differences in earthquake characteristics between the scenarios, but similarities in tsunami inundation patterns. However, the lower seafloor displacements in the blind rupture result in a smaller displaced volume of water leading to a narrower inundation corridor inland from the coast and a 15 per cent smaller inundation area overall. In the third scenario, the 3-D earthquake model is initialized using a seismo-thermo-mechanical geodynamic model simulating both subduction dynamics and seismic cycles. This ensures that the curved fault geometry, heterogeneous stresses and strength and material structure are consistent with each other and with millions of years of modelled deformation in the subduction channel. These conditions lead to a realistic rupture in terms of velocity and stress drop that is blind, but efficiently generates a tsunami. In all scenarios, comparison with the tsunamis sourced by the time-dependent seafloor displacements, using only the time-independent displacements alters tsunami temporal behaviour, resulting in later tsunami arrival at the coast, but faster coastal inundation. In the scenarios with the surface-breaching and subduction-initialized earthquakes, using the time-independent displacements also overpredicts run-up. In the future, the here presented scenarios may be useful for comparison of alternative dynamic earthquake-tsunami modelling approaches or linking choices, and can be readily developed into more complex applications to study how earthquake source dynamics influence tsunami genesis, propagation and inundation.
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Ide, Satoshi, and Hideo Aochi. "Modeling Earthquakes Using Fractal Circular Patch Models with Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake." Journal of Disaster Research 9, no. 3 (June 1, 2014): 264–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0264.
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Earthquakes occur in a complex hierarchical fault system, meaning that a realistic mechanically-consistent model is required to describe heterogeneity simply and over a wide scale. We developed a simple conceptual mechanical model using fractal circular patches associated with fracture energy on a fault plane. This model explains the complexity and scaling relation in the dynamic rupture process. We also show that such a fractal patch model is useful in simulating longterm seismicity in a hierarchal fault system by using external loading. In these studies, an earthquake of any magnitude appears as a completely random cascade growing from a small patch to larger patches. This model is thus potentially useful as a benchmarking scenario for evaluating probabilistic gain in probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The model is applied to the real case of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on prior information from a seismicity catalog to reproduce the complex rupture process of this very large earthquake and its resulting ground motion. Provided that a high-quality seismicity catalog is available for other regions, similar approach using this conceptual model may provide scenarios for other potential large earthquakes.
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Seal, Dylan M., M. Anna Nowicki Jessee, Michael W. Hamburger, and Paulo Ruiz. "Application of Scenario Earthquakes for Analysis of Seismically Triggered Landslide Hazard: A Case Study in Costa Rica." Revista Geológica de América Central 67 (July 11, 2022): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/rgac.v67i0.51700.
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In this study, we demonstrate the capabilities of hypothetical scenario earthquakes as a new tool for assessment of hazards associated with earthquake-triggered landslides. Costa Rica offers an ideal environment for demonstrating the utility of scenario earthquakes due to its diverse tectonic environments and associated widespread seismic hazard, rugged topography, and high landslide susceptibility. We investigate the relative influence of landslide proxies such as topographic slope, peak ground velocity (PGV), and compound topographic index (CTI), and earthquake source parameters such as magnitude and depth, on predicted landslide probability and fatality. We examine five distinct tectonic environments, including subduction events beneath the (1) Nicoya and (2) Osa peninsulas respectively, (3) intraplate earthquakes beneath the Central Volcanic Range (CVR) and (4) the Central Costa Rica Deformed Belt (CCRDB), and (5) back-arc thrust events on the eastern Caribbean coast. Our results demonstrate that the slope, PGV, and CTI thresholds necessary to produce landslide probabilities greater than 10% vary by tectonic environment. In all cases, we observe magnitude to be the primary control on the predicted maximum landslide probability and overall areal landslide coverage. We validate model predictions with observed landslide inventories from the 2009 Cinchona and 1991 Limon earthquakes, demonstrating a good fit, where over 70% of landslides occurring in zones of greater than 20% probability. We also use a global model of landslide impact to predict exposure and fatality ranges for each scenario earthquake of this study, revealing that moderate-sized earthquakes in the CCRDB and CVR and large subduction megathrust earthquakes each pose a significant hazard to Costa Rica’s population.
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Pranantyo, I. R., A. Cipta, H. A. Shiddiqi, and M. Heidarzadeh. "Source reconstruction of the 1969 Majene, Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami: A preliminary study." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 873, no. 1 (October 1, 2021): 012054. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/873/1/012054.
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Abstract We studied the February 23rd, 1969 M7.0 Majene, Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami. It was followed by tsunami reported at five locations. At least 64 people were killed and severe damage on infrastructures were reported in Majene region. Based on damage data, we estimated that the maximum intensity of the earthquake was MMI VIII. Focal mechanisms, derived using first motion polarity analysis, indicated that the earthquake had a thrust mechanism. Furthermore, we built hypothetical earthquake scenarios based on a rectangular fault plane of 40 km × 20 km with a homogeneous slip model of 1.5 m. We run the Open Quake and the JAGURS code to validate the macroseismic and tsunami observation data, respectively. Our best-fitted earthquake model generates maximum intensity of 8+ which is in line with the reported macroseismic data. However, the maximum simulated tsunami height from all scenario earthquakes is 2.25 m which is smaller than the 4 m tsunami height observed at Pelattoang. The possibility of contribution of another mechanism to tsunami generation requires further investigation.
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Yavari, Soheil, Stephanie E. Chang, and Kenneth J. Elwood. "Modeling Post-Earthquake Functionality of Regional Health Care Facilities." Earthquake Spectra 26, no. 3 (August 2010): 869–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3460359.
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This study introduces a methodology for anticipating the post-earthquake functionality of hospitals in a region. Performance levels for interacting systems (structural, nonstructural, lifeline, and personnel) in a hospital are operationally defined, empirically correlated, and probabilistically modeled using damage data from past earthquakes. Separate models are developed for buildings built before and after the 1973 California Hospital Seismic Safety Act. Performance estimates of the systems are used to anticipate overall hospital functionality. Effects of external power and water outage are also included. As a case study, the methodology is utilized to predict the functionality of hospitals in Los Angeles County for two earthquake scenarios. Findings indicate that in a M6.9 Verdugo fault earthquake scenario, nearly half of county hospitals have at least a 50% chance of experiencing significant loss of functionality. Such findings can support emergency response planning as well as seismic retrofit prioritization.
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Toland, Joseph, and Anne Wein. "A Simplified Method for Rapid Estimation of Emergency Water Supply Needs after Earthquakes." Water 13, no. 19 (September 25, 2021): 2635. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13192635.
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Researchers are investigating the problem of estimating households with potable water service outages soon after an earthquake. Most of these modeling approaches are computationally intensive, have large proprietary data collection requirements or lack precision, making them unfeasible for rapid assessment, prioritization, and allocation of emergency water resources in large, complex disasters. This study proposes a new simplified analytical method—performed without proprietary water pipeline data—to estimate water supply needs after earthquakes, and a case study of its application in the HayWired earthquake scenario. In the HayWired scenario—a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California (USA)—an analysis of potable water supply in two water utility districts was performed using the University of Colorado Water Network (CUWNet) model. In the case study, application of the simplified method extends these estimates of household water service outage to the nine counties adjacent to the San Francisco Bay, aggregated by a ~250 m2 (nine-arcsecond) grid. The study estimates about 1.38 million households (3.7 million residents) out of 7.6 million residents (2017, ambient, nighttime population) with potable water service outage soon after the earthquake—about an 8% increase from the HayWired scenario estimates.
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Zhuang, Jianqi, Jianbing Peng, Xinghua Zhu, and Weiliang Huang. "Scenario-Based Risk Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Using Slope Displacement, PGA, and Population Density in the Guyuan Region, China." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 8, no. 2 (February 14, 2019): 85. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8020085.
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Mega-earthquakes that occur in mountainous areas of densely populated cities are particularly catastrophic, triggering large landslides, destroying more buildings, and usually resulting in significant death tolls. In this paper, earthquake scenarios in the Guyuan Region of China are used as an example to study earthquake disaster risk assessment and a method of assessment is proposed that uses the peak ground acceleration (PGA), landslides triggered by the earthquake, and the effects on the population. The method is used to develop scenarios for earthquake disaster risk assessment along the Haiyuan and Liupanshan Faults for earthquake magnitudes of Ms 7.0, 7.5, 8.0, and 8.5 triggered by one of the two faults. The quantitative earthquake disaster risk maps in the study area were developed by integrating the values of the at-risk elements for the earthquake factor, population, and landslide hazard. According to the model results, the high-hazard zone was mainly located in the severely affected areas along the faults and on the western side of the faults. These results can be useful for emergency preparation planning, response plans, and resource assessment.
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Liu, Chenying, and Jorge Macedo. "New conditional, scenario-based, and non-conditional cumulative absolute velocity models for subduction tectonic settings." Earthquake Spectra 38, no. 1 (October 25, 2021): 615–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/87552930211043897.
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The PEER NGA-Sub ground-motion intensity measure database is used to develop new conditional ground-motion models (CGMMs), a set of scenario-based models, and non-conditional models to estimate the cumulative absolute velocity ([Formula: see text]) of ground motions from subduction zone earthquakes. In the CGMMs, the median estimate of [Formula: see text] is conditioned on the estimated peak ground acceleration ([Formula: see text]), the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil ([Formula: see text]), the earthquake magnitude ([Formula: see text]), and the spectral acceleration at the period of 1 s ([Formula: see text]). Multiple scenario-based [Formula: see text] models are developed by combining the CGMMs with pseudo-spectral acceleration ([Formula: see text]) ground-motion models (GMMs) for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] to directly estimate [Formula: see text] given an earthquake scenario and site conditions. Scenario-based [Formula: see text] models are capable of capturing the complex ground-motion effects (e.g. soil non-linearity and regionalization effects) included in their underlying [Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] GMMs. This approach also ensures the consistency of the [Formula: see text] estimates with a [Formula: see text] design spectrum. In addition, two non-conditional [Formula: see text] GMMs are developed using Bayesian hierarchical regressions. Finally, we present comparisons between the developed models. The comparisons show that if non-conditional GMMs are properly constrained, they are consistent with scenario-based GMMs. The [Formula: see text] GMMs developed in this study advance the performance-based earthquake engineering practice in areas affected by subduction zone earthquakes.
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Zhou, Bo Jia, Qun Lin Jia, and Kuang Cen. "Research of Virtual Simulation Scenario Editor for Earthquake Tabletop Exercise." Advanced Materials Research 989-994 (July 2014): 4551–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.989-994.4551.
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Earthquake is a small probability of unexpected events. Most of the emergency management personals did not experience the earthquake. They may cause flaws in the post-earthquake emergency response process, if they do not take part in earthquake emergency exercise. Traditional tabletop exercise, however, cannot provide a relatively realistic earthquake disaster scenes and vivid emergency background, so they need the virtual simulation exercises and drills for emergency management personnel to provide a real disaster site that is very similar to a drill. This paper presents system structure, function composition, scenario editing process of virtual reality simulation of earthquake emergency exercise and discusses a scenario editor based on OSG. Scenario Editor of earthquake emergency can control the drill and quickly rebuild the drill scene and improve emergency management personnel to design urban 3D scenes and earthquake and secondary disasters events.
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Van Dissen, R. J., J. J. Taber, W. R. Stephenson, S. Sritheran, S. A. L. Read, G. H. McVerry, G. D. Dellow, and P. R. Barker. "Earthquake ground shaking hazard assessment for the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas, New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 25, no. 4 (December 31, 1992): 286–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.25.4.286-302.
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Geographic variations in strong ground shaking expected during damaging earthquakes impacting on the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas are identified and quantified. Four ground shaking hazard zones have been mapped in the Lower Hutt area, and three in Porirua, based on geological, weak motion, and strong motion inputs. These hazard zones are graded from 1 to 5. In general, Zone 5 areas are subject to the greatest hazard, and Zone 1 areas the least. In Lower Hutt, zones 3 and 4 are not differentiated and are referred to as Zone 3-4. The five-fold classification is used to indicate the range of relative response.
Zone 1 areas are underlain by bedrock. Zone 2 areas are typically underlain by compact alluvial and fan gravel. Zone 3-4 is underlain, to a depth of 20 m, by interfingered layers of flexible (soft) sediment (fine sand, silt, clay, peat), and compact gravel and sand. Zone 5 is directly underlain by more than 10 m of flexible sediment with shear wave velocities in the order of 200 m/s or less.
The response of each zone is assessed for two earthquake scenarios. Scenario 1 is for a moderate to large, shallow, distant earthquake that results in regional Modified Mercalli intensity V-VI shaking on bedrock. Scenario 2 is for a large, local, but rarer, Wellington fault earthquake. The response characterisation for each zone comprises: expected Modified Mercalli intensity; peak horizontal ground acceleration; duration of strong shaking; and amplification of ground motion with respect to bedrock, expressed as a Fourier spectral ratio, including the frequency range over which the most pronounced amplification occurs. In brief, high to very high ground motion amplifications are expected in Zone 5, relative to Zone 1, during a scenario 1 earthquake. Peak Fourier spectral ratios of 10-20 are expected in Zone 5, relative to Zone 1, and a difference of up to three, possibly four, MM intensity units is expected between the two zones. During a scenario 2 event, it is anticipated that the level of shaking throughout the Lower Hutt and Porirua region will increase markedly, relative to scenario 1, and the average difference in shaking between each zone will decrease.
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Porter, Keith A., and Rachel Sherrill. "Utility Performance Panels in the ShakeOut Scenario." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (May 2011): 443–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3584121.
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The ShakeOut Scenario assessed earth-science impacts, physical damage, and socioeconomic impacts of a hypothetical M7.8 southern San Andreas Fault earthquake. Among many detailed studies were special studies of 12 lifelines, 7 of which were performed by panels of employees of the utilities at risk. Panels met for four hours. Panelists were presented with the scenario's earth science impacts and previously estimated damage to “upstream” lifelines. They then hypothesized a realistic outcome of the earthquake on damage and service restoration, identifying research needs and mitigation options. The panel process worked well: panelists were well qualified and seemed to fairly assess realistic earthquake impacts and restoration, probably more realistically than an outside consultant would have been able to do, thus improving the ShakeOut. Panelists gained insight into lifeline interaction, mutual-aid needs, communication capabilities, and backup supplies. Southern California Edison, for example, enhanced its planning and preparedness for a large Southern California earthquake.
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Dina Manolache, Aurora Elena. "Stress and scenario tests in the context of a Romanian non-life insurance company." Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence 13, no. 1 (May 1, 2019): 149–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2019-0014.
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Abstract The main aim of the article is to assess the vulnerabilities and resilience of a Romanian non-life insurance company in the context of different predefined insurance stress scenarios: natural catastrophe scenario and business scenario. The natural catastrophe scenario consists in two distinct scenarios: earthquake and flood, which were carried out separately and aggregated based on three stress factors: increasing by 15% of PML, increasing by 5% of the gross best estimate claim provisions and reinsurer’s incapacity to pay. The business stress scenario was based on four stress parameters: increasing by 3 % of the claims provisions due to the inflation impact, increasing by 10% of the gross earned premium for MTPL due to the legislative changes, increasing by 15% of the claims provisions for MTPL due to the increase of frequency and severity of the losses induced by the exposure growth as a result of the lower premiums and decreasing by 10% of the ceded best estimate. The results of the stress testing shown that the insurer is more sensitive to business scenario compared to natural catastrophe scenario due to the significant exposure on the MTPL line of business. High exposure to earthquake risk is a characteristic for Romania and the stress testing results confirm the vulnerability of the insurer to the earthquake scenario (non-compliance of the solvency capital requirements), due to the biggest impact of the factor: reinsurer’s incapacity to pay. Therefore, the quality of reinsurance is very important for Romanian insurance companies to be able to manage the risks arising from the seismic events and to be compliant with the regulatory solvency capital requirements.
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De Risi, Maria, Carlo Del Gaudio, and Gerardo Verderame. "Evaluation of Repair Costs for Masonry Infills in RC Buildings from Observed Damage Data: the Case-Study of the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake." Buildings 9, no. 5 (May 14, 2019): 122. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings9050122.
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The estimation of direct and indirect losses due to earthquakes is a key issue in the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering framework. In commonly adopted loss computation tools, no specific data related to masonry infill panels, widespread in moment-resisting-frame residential buildings, are available to perform a probabilistic assessment of losses. To fill this gap, specific fragility and loss functions have been recently proposed in the last years. To assess their validity and estimate the relevance of the repair costs due to infills after earthquakes with respect to the total reconstruction process, the present work analyses the Reinforced Concrete residential buildings with masonry infills struck by the 2009 L’Aquila (Italy) earthquake, focusing on the dataset of “lightly” damaged buildings, where only damage to masonry infills occurred. Based on available data related to these buildings, the observed damage scenario after L’Aquila earthquake is first obtained. The repair costs for infills are estimated given this damage scenario. The resulting estimated repair costs are then compared with the actual repair costs presented in the available literature. The percentage influence of infills on the total repair costs due to earthquakes for residential buildings is lastly computed, resulting on average equal to the fifty percent.
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Adriano, Bruno, Erick Mas, Shunichi Koshimura, Miguel Estrada, and Cesar Jimenez. "Scenarios of Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Probability in Callao Region, Peru Using Tsunami Fragility Functions." Journal of Disaster Research 9, no. 6 (December 1, 2014): 968–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0968.
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The implementation of adequate urban development and measures systems against tsunami impact in coastal communities is improved by understanding damage probability among building structures. Within the framework of the project Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru (JST-JICA SATREPS), the authors analyze the damage probability of building structures due to tsunami impact in the Callao region of Peru. Two different tsunami hazard scenarios are assumed in assessing building damage probability. The first tsunami scenario represents the worse-case scenario of tsunami inundation that calculates the envelop of maximum inundation depth and flow velocity values from 12 probabilistic megathrust earthquake scenarios for central Peru. The second tsunami scenario corresponds to a historical tsunami event in this region. We apply a methodology for evaluating different levels of building damage by combining tsunami numerical results and tsunami fragility functions. Damage probability was analyzed in detail on a single building scale in the La Punta district. For the rest of Callao region, analysis was performed on a block-unit scale. Our results suggest that approximately 30% of submerged building may be washed away by tsunami inundation in the probabilistic hazard scenario and approximately 60% in the historical hazard scenario.
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Bal, I. E., H. Crowley, and R. Pinho. "Displacement-Based Earthquake Loss Assessment for an Earthquake Scenario in Istanbul." Journal of Earthquake Engineering 12, sup2 (May 14, 2008): 12–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13632460802013388.
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KATO, Kenichi, Yoshiaki HISADA, Hiroshi ISHIDA, Tetsushi WATANABE, Fumino SUZUKI, and Norihide KOSHIKA. "DESIGN EARTHQUAKE GROUND MOTIONS FOR THE SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES AT TOKYO BAY AREA." AIJ Journal of Technology and Design 23, no. 53 (2017): 53–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.3130/aijt.23.53.
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Li, Duo, and Yajing Liu. "Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 379, no. 2196 (March 15, 2021): 20200135. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0135.
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Paleo-earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone inferred from offshore sediments and Japan coastal tsunami deposits approximated to M9+ and ruptured the entire margin. However, due to the lack of modern megathrust earthquake records and general quiescence of subduction fault seismicity, the potential megathrust rupture scenario and influence of downdip limit of the seismogenic zone are still obscure. In this study, we present a numerical simulation of Cascadia subduction zone earthquake sequences in the laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction framework to investigate the potential influence of the geodetic fault locking on the megathrust sequences. We consider the rate-state friction stability parameter constrained by geodetic fault locking models derived from decadal GPS records, tidal gauge and levelling-derived uplift rate data along the Cascadia margin. We incorporate historical coseismic subsidence inferred from coastal marine sediments to validate our coseismic rupture scenarios. Earthquake rupture pattern is strongly controlled by the downdip width of the seismogenic, velocity-weakening zone and by the earthquake nucleation zone size. In our model, along-strike heterogeneous characteristic slip distance is required to generate margin-wide ruptures that result in reasonable agreement between the synthetic and observed coastal subsidence for the AD 1700 Cascadia Mw∼9.0 megathrust rupture. Our results suggest the geodetically inferred fault locking model can provide a useful constraint on earthquake rupture scenarios in subduction zones. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fracture dynamics of solid materials: from particles to the globe’.
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Chen, Rui, David M. Branum, and Chris J. Wills. "Annualized and Scenario Earthquake Loss Estimations for California." Earthquake Spectra 29, no. 4 (November 2013): 1183–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/082911eqs210m.
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We update annualized and scenario earthquake loss estimations for California using HAZUS, a loss estimation tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and evaluate the effects of changes in input ground motions over the last decade on estimated earthquake losses. Our estimated statewide average earthquake loss to building stock from shaking is approximately $2.8 billion per year, with 32% of it occurring in Los Angeles County and 23% in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan statistical area. This estimate reflects a 25% to 28% reduction because of changes in input ground motions. Scenario results indicate a 28% to 63% reduction in estimated building economic losses because of changes in input ground motions. Changes in input ground motions are mainly attributed to the use of next generation attenuation relations and, to a lesser extent, to updated earthquake source models and differing approaches for incorporating near-surface site effects.
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Crampin, Stuart. "An alternative scenario for earthquake prediction experiments." Geophysical Journal International 107, no. 1 (October 1991): 185–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246x.1991.tb01166.x.
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Silva, Vitor. "Critical Issues in Earthquake Scenario Loss Modeling." Journal of Earthquake Engineering 20, no. 8 (February 22, 2016): 1322–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2016.1138172.
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Mota de Sá, Francisco, Mónica Amaral Ferreira, and Carlos Sousa Oliveira. "QuakeIST® earthquake scenario simulator using interdependencies." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 14, no. 7 (February 23, 2016): 2047–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9884-9.
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Oksuz, Merve, and Ozge Cordan. "Using Video Games for Design Education: An Example of Developing Earthquake Scenarios for Home Environments." Journal of Design Studio 4, spi2 (October 3, 2022): 65–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.46474/jds.1155669.
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The heart of interior design/architecture education is design studios. As a design-based graduate program, the main objective of the International Masters of Interior Architecture and Design Program-(IMIAD) in Istanbul Technical University Graduate School is to produce new disciplinary information and knowledge for design (Cordan, 2017). Additionally, the main objective of the Interior Architecture Project III, which is the third design studio blended with the thesis studies in the IMIAD Programme, is to guide students in their study based on research-based design approach. In this study, one example was presented to explain how the research-based design process conducted. This study was based on developing a game scenario for experiencing earthquakes in an experiential box. The earthquake scenario was developed for a bedroom situation at home environment by using virtual reality and gamification methods. The educational use of video games through serious games helps designers and design students understand real situations and raise public awareness by experiencing them in virtual environments. Besides, the study will fill the gap in the literature by using video games as an educational tool in design to develop scenarios for natural disasters such as earthquakes, the study will help educators for developing new ways of teaching and students for solving design issues using video games. Different scenarios can be developed for different natural disasters and cases in the future for further studies.
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Wang, Xiang-Chao, Jin-Ting Wang, Lei Zhang, Shuai Li, and Chu-Han Zhang. "A Multidimension Source Model for Generating Broadband Ground Motions with Deterministic 3D Numerical Simulations." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 111, no. 2 (January 12, 2021): 989–1013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200221.
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ABSTRACT A multidimension source model for generating broadband ground motions with deterministic 3D numerical simulations is proposed in this article. In this model, the source is composed of several superimposed layers, and the total seismic moment is assigned to these layers in different proportions. Each layer exactly fills up the seismic fault and is uniformly divided into subsources with size decreased progressively to reflect different levels of rupture details. Hence, the proposed multidimension source model may consider the realistic rupture process of an earthquake, that is, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of source parameters, and generate broadband ground motions. To verify this source model, the 1994 Northridge earthquake is simulated with four multidimension source models, based on different source inversion results. The amplitudes, durations, and spectral characteristics of the observed ground motions of the 1994 Northridge earthquake are respectably reproduced in a range of frequencies up to 5 Hz. In addition, a scenario earthquake is also simulated with four multidimension source models, with different synthetic rupture process. The simulated ground motions of the scenario earthquake are generally in good agreement with the Next Generation Attenuation-West 2 ground-motion prediction equations. This demonstrates that it is promising to simulate realistic broadband ground motions of strong earthquakes with a proper source description and realistic Earth models.
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Liu, Bo Yan, Wen Hao Shen, and Bao Ping Shi. "Seismic Hazard Assessment of Hengshui Area by the Modified Stochastic Finite Fault Modeling." Applied Mechanics and Materials 744-746 (March 2015): 894–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.744-746.894.
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In recent years, numerical simulation of strong ground motion has been well developed with the progress of earthquake science, and it has become an important approach to estimate strong ground motion. In this research, we improve the original program of EXSIM and the modified program named MEXSIM to calculate the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) which is essential for seismic hazard assessment of Hengshui area. Considering the impact of V30(the average shear-velocity down to 30 m) we calculate the impact of two scenario earthquakes from the rupture processes of Hengshui fault and Qianmotou fault. Comparing to Qianmotou scenario earthquake, if the instability fault is Hengshui fault, the PGA and PGV could be 200-360gal and 20-35cm/s respectively in Hengshui city.
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Husain, Suha S., and Taghreed MohammadRidha. "Design of Integral Sliding Mode Control for Seismic Effect Regulation on Buildings with Unmatched Disturbance." Mathematical Modelling of Engineering Problems 9, no. 4 (August 31, 2022): 1123–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.18280/mmep.090431.
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In this work the robustness properties of Integral Sliding Mode Controller (ISMC) are studied for the problem structural vibration. Selecting the sliding manifold which takes into account the attenuation of the unmatched perturbation is studied as well. This study has two scenarios the first is comparing two types of sliding mode controllers which designed to control 3-story scaled structure supported by Magneto Rheological Damper (MRD). ISMC is compared to classical Sliding Mode Control (SMC) performance, the two controllers checked under effect of Mexico city earthquake. The second scenario compares the proposed controller with other controllers from literature under effect of time scaled El Centro 1940 earthquake. The results show that ISMC performance is better than SMC in scenario one and better than other controllers in scenario two. All the simulation results are obtained by MATLAB.
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Alvianingsih, Martha, Willy Ivander Pradipta, Intan Hayatiningsih, and Nuraini Rahma Hanifa. "Exposures of Building and Population to Tsunami Hazard in Pangandaran Beach, Indonesia." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 925, no. 1 (November 1, 2021): 012037. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/925/1/012037.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Pangandaran and Pananjung villages are located in the southern coast of Java Island, prone to tsunami hazard originating from a megathrust earthquake off south of Java Island. Those villages experience a tsunami earthquake on 2006 from an M7.8 earthquake. The National Center for Earthquake Studies released a map of the sources and hazards of Indonesia’s earthquake in 2017 with a potential earthquake of magnitude 8.7-9.2 in the megathrust of Java Island. This research aims to estimate the potential number of buildings and the population affected by tsunami inundation from two scenario; first scenario is based on historical event of a M7.8 intraplate earthquake, and second scenario is based on a plausible M8.7 intraplate earthquake. The first scenario tsunami modeling resulted an inundation of 108.606 ha, while in the second scenario estimate an 867.351 ha of inundation area. Building data is obtained by digitizing aerial photographs taken in November 2021. The calculation of potential affected buildings is carried out by overlaying the tsunami inundation data with the existing building data in the study area. Meanwhile, the population data used is obtained from the local government in 2021. To obtain the number of the affected population, population distribution is first carried out in each class of land cover, overlaid with the tsunami inundation data. The estimated number of buildings and population affected by scenario 1 and 2 in Pangandaran Village is 1,040 buildings along with 2,765 people, and 4,216 buildings with 11,209 people respectively. While in Pananjung Village, it is estimated a total of 149 buildings with 350 people affected, and 4,039 buildings with 9,493 people affected respectively. This indicate that scenario 2 impact is potentially 4 times greater than scenario 1 in Pangandaran village, and 27 times greater in Pananjung village, implying a different strategy of tsunami risk reduction should be taken to save more lives. The results of this study can be used as a basis for policymaking by the government in carrying out a more effective tsunami disaster mitigation efforts in Pangandaran and Pananjung Villages. This study also calls for reevaluation of coastal villages tsunami risk based on each plausible scenario.