Relevant bibliographies by topics / Earthquake interactions and probability

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Earthquake interactions and probability'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 March 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Jones, Lucile M. "Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84, no. 3 (June 1, 1994): 892–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0840030892.

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Abstract The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.
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Tao, Zheng Ru, Xia Xin Tao, and Wei Jiang. "A Review on Long-Term Evaluation of Occurrence Probability for Subduction-Zone Earthquakes in Eastern Japan." Applied Mechanics and Materials 166-169 (May 2012): 2190–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.166-169.2190.

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Evaluation approach of occurrence probability for subduction-zone earthquakes adopted in “National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan” is reviewed, especially for the area of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (2011 Tohoku Earthquake in short). One problem is pointed that the occurrence probability of such a large earthquake cannot be predicted just from seismicity in a region small like Miyagi-ken-Oki area or southern Sanriku-Oki. The whole subduction zone in eastern Japan is suggested to be taken into account with the interaction between the energy released in quakes. Finally, a simple test to predict the next large earthquake in the subduction-zone by means of Artificial Neural Network is presented, and the result for the years of 2008-2018 shows there may be an earthquake with magnitude up to 8.8 in the zone.
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Dan Tian, Dan Tian, Yong-Jie Xu Dan Tian, Tong-Lei Qu Yong-Jie Xu, Rong-Guang Jia Tong-Lei Qu, Hao Zhang Rong-Guang Jia, and Wen-Jie Song Hao Zhang. "A Bayesian Network Model for Rough Estimations of Casualties by Strong Earthquakes in Emergency Mode." 電腦學刊 33, no. 6 (December 2022): 083–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.53106/199115992022123306007.

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<p>Rough estimations in emergency mode are now playing an important role in making key decisions for managing disasters including search and rescue. Most of the studies only paid attention to the earthquakes and ignored the presence of disaster chains and the hazard interactions in earthquakes. Bayesian Networks are ideal tools to explore the causal relationships between events, combine prior knowledge and observed data, and are integrated to solve uncertain problems. In such situations, we present improvements based on a Bayesian Network Model in approaches to estimations of casualties in earthquakes. According to the development of the earthquake disaster chain in literature, the proposed model extracts the key events of earthquakes, considers the hazard interactions, and constructs the Bayesian Networks based on a scenario-based method, to deal with the events in the earthquakes. In the model, lifeline system damages, fires, landslides, and debris flow have been integrated into the networks. The conditional probability tables are encoded by using the collected cases. Validations in the Netica allow the simulation of expected shaking intensity and estimation of the expected casualties by strong earthquakes in emergency mode. Compared to the literature, the method is closer to the fact in the rough estimations, providing important information for our response to earthquakes. Further, rough estimations are started when only seismic intensity or fewer earthquake source parameters are available.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
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Liu, Gang, Qinjin Fan, Weile Li, Gianvito Scaringi, Yujie Long, Jing He, and Zheng Li. "Spatio-temporal network modelling and analysis of global strong earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0)." Journal of the Geological Society 177, no. 5 (June 2, 2020): 883–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/jgs2019-151.

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We employ a spatio-temporal network modelling approach to identify possible relations between strong earthquakes and spatial regions worldwide. A global strong earthquake dataset containing 7736 events (Mw ≥ 6.0) from 1964 to 2018 is used. Statistical results identify power-law relationships and heavy tail phenomena in the spatial patterns of strong earthquakes. The interactions between regions follow the same law, with a few regions that may be hit by successive strong earthquakes with high probability. Also, we find that the interconnections between regions are mainly related to the succession of events in time, whereas the distribution of events is extremely inhomogeneous in space. This study provides a research prototype for the spatio-temporal analysis of global strong earthquakes, laying a foundation for obtaining insights into the network modelling approach for global strong earthquakes.
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Mangira, O., E. Papadimitriou, G. Tsaklidis, and G. Vasiliadis. "SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE CORINTH GULF AND CENTRAL IONIAN ISLANDS BY MEANS OF THE LINKED STRESS RELEASE MODEL." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 50, no. 3 (July 27, 2017): 1369. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11850.

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Εarthquake generation causes spatio-temporal stress changes on adjacent fault segments that can alter the occurrence probability of subsequent earthquakes onto them. The interaction is investigated with the Linked Stress Release Model, applied to fit historical data from two areas that accommodate high seismicity, the Corinth Gulf and the Central Ionian Islands. These two areas are divided in two subareas, based on seismotectonic features; Corinth Gulf is divided in the western and eastern part, whereas the area of Central Ionian Islands is divided in Kefalonia and Lefkada subareas. The results establish interactions between the subareas, especially in the Central Ionian Islands, and underline the differences in tectonic structures and earthquake mechanisms between these areas. Particularly, the seismicity in the Central Ionian Islands is proved to be more complex and active and yet more difficult to be examined, whereas the LSRM fits the Corinth Gulf data more easily.
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Chen, Yuxuan, Mian Liu, and Gang Luo. "Complex Temporal Patterns of Large Earthquakes: Devil’s Staircases." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 3 (April 14, 2020): 1064–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120190148.

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ABSTRACT Periodic or quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence on individual faults, as predicted by the elastic rebound model, is not common in nature. Instead, most earthquake sequences are complex and variable, and often show clusters of events separated by long but irregular intervals of quiescence. Such temporal patterns are especially common for large earthquakes in complex fault zones or regional and global fault networks. Mathematically described as the Devil’s Staircase, such temporal patterns are a fractal property of nonlinear complex systems, in which a change of any part (e.g., rupture of a fault or fault segment) could affect the behavior of the whole system. We found that the lengths of the quiescent intervals between clusters are inversely related to tectonic-loading rates, whereas earthquake clustering can be attributed to many factors, including earthquake-induced viscoelastic relaxation and fault interaction. Whereas the underlying causes of the characteristics of earthquake sequences are not fully known, we attempted to statistically characterize these sequences. We found that most earthquake sequences are burstier than the Poisson model commonly used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, implying a higher probability of repeating events soon after a large earthquake.
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Liu, Zhang Jun, Xing Fang, Yong Wan, and Yan Fu Xing. "Probability Density Evolution Method for Stochastic Earthquake Response and Reliability Analysis of Large-Scale Aqueduct Structures." Applied Mechanics and Materials 193-194 (August 2012): 1230–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.193-194.1230.

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The probability density evolution method (PDEM) has been used to research the stochastic earthquake response and reliability analysis of large-scale aqueducts structures, with the changeable water level in tub and under the condition of the interaction between water and boundary of the tub. The results show that，the probability distribution of stochastic seismic responses about aqueduct structure is rules distribution, the response and failure probability of large-scale aqueduct structures under the stochastic earthquake are increased as the rising of water level, however, with the water level unchangeably, the seismic response is distinctness smaller while the seismic reliability much higher after considering the water sloshing effect on the aqueduct structures. Within the calculation of seismic resistance about the large aqueduct structures, the impact should be considered including the changeable water level and water sloshing.
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Toda, Shinji, and Ross S. Stein. "Long- and Short-Term Stress Interaction of the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence and Coulomb-Based Earthquake Forecasts." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 4 (July 14, 2020): 1765–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200169.

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Abstract We first explore a series of retrospective earthquake interactions in southern California. We find that the four Mw≥7 shocks in the past 150 yr brought the Ridgecrest fault ∼1 bar closer to failure. Examining the 34 hr time span between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 events, we calculate that the Mw 6.4 event brought the hypocentral region of the Mw 7.1 earthquake 0.7 bars closer to failure, with the Mw 7.1 event relieving most of the surrounding stress that was imparted by the first. We also find that the Mw 6.4 cross-fault aftershocks shut down when they fell under the stress shadow of the Mw 7.1. Together, the Ridgecrest mainshocks brought a 120 km long portion of the Garlock fault from 0.2 to 10 bars closer to failure. These results motivate our introduction of forecasts of future seismicity. Most attempts to forecast aftershocks use statistical decay models or Coulomb stress transfer. Statistical approaches require simplifying assumptions about the spatial distribution of aftershocks and their decay; Coulomb models make simplifying assumptions about the geometry of the surrounding faults, which we seek here to remove. We perform a rate–state implementation of the Coulomb stress change on focal mechanisms to capture fault complexity. After tuning the model through a learning period to improve its forecast ability, we make retrospective forecasts to assess model’s predictive ability. Our forecast for the next 12 months yields a 2.3% chance of an Mw≥7.5 Garlock fault rupture. If such a rupture occurred and reached within 45 km of the San Andreas, we calculate it would raise the probability of a San Andreas rupture on the Mojave section by a factor of 150. We therefore estimate the net chance of large San Andreas earthquake in the next 12 months to be 1.15%, or about three to five times its background probability.
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Yang, Haibin, Mark Quigley, and Tamarah King. "Surface slip distributions and geometric complexity of intraplate reverse-faulting earthquakes." GSA Bulletin 133, no. 9-10 (January 13, 2021): 1909–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/b35809.1.

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Abstract Earthquake ground surface ruptures provide insights into faulting mechanics and inform seismic hazard analyses. We analyze surface ruptures for 11 historical (1968–2018) moment magnitude (Mw) 4.7–6.6 reverse earthquakes in Australia using statistical techniques and compare their characteristics with magnetic, gravity, and stress trajectory data sets. Of the total combined (summative) length of all surface ruptures (∼148 km), 133 km (90%) to 145 km (98%) align with the geophysical structure in the host basement rocks. Surface rupture length (SRL), maximum displacement (MD), and probability of surface rupture at a specified Mw are high compared with equivalent Mw earthquakes globally. This is attributed to (1) a steep cratonic crustal strength gradient at shallow depths, promoting shallow hypocenters (∼1–6 km) and limiting downdip rupture widths (∼1–8.5 km), and (2) favorably aligned crustal anisotropies (e.g., bedrock foliations, faults, fault intersections) that enhanced lateral rupture propagation and/or surface displacements. Combined (modeled and observed) MDs are in the middle third of the SRL with 68% probability and either the ≤33rd or ≥66th percentiles of SRL with 16% probability. MD occurs proximate to or directly within zones of enhanced fault geometric complexity (as evidenced from surface ruptures) in 8 of 11 earthquakes (73%). MD is approximated by 3.3 ± 1.6 (1σ) × AD (average displacement). S-transform analyses indicates that high-frequency slip maxima also coincide with fault geometric complexities, consistent with stress amplifications and enhanced slip variability due to geometric and kinematic interactions with neighboring faults. Rupture slip taper angles exhibit large variations (−90% to +380% with respect to the mean value) toward rupture termini and are steepest where ruptures terminate at obliquely oriented magnetic lineaments and/or lithology changes. Incremental slip approximates AD between the 10th and 90th percentiles of the SRL. The average static stress drop of the studied earthquakes is 4.8 ± 2.8 MPa. A surface rupture classification scheme for cratonic stable regions is presented to describe the prevailing characteristics of intraplate earthquakes across diverse crustal structural-geophysical settings. New scaling relationships and suggestions for logic tree weights are provided to enhance probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses for bedrock-dominated intraplate continental regions.
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Sari, Devni Prima, Dedi Rosadi, Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, and Danardono Danardono. "Discretization methods for Bayesian networks in the case of the earthquake." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 10, no. 1 (February 1, 2021): 299–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/eei.v10i1.2007.

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The Bayesian networks are a graphical probability model that represents interactions between variables. This model has been widely applied in various fields, including in the case of disaster. In applying field data, we often find a mixture of variable types, which is a combination of continuous variables and discrete variables. For data processing using hybrid and continuous Bayesian networks, all continuous variables must be normally distributed. If normal conditions unsatisfied, we offer a solution, is to discretize continuous variables. Next, we can continue the process with the discrete Bayesian networks. The discretization of a variable can be done in various ways, including equal-width, equal-frequency, and K-means. The combination of BN and k-means is a new contribution in this study called the k-means Bayesian networks (KMBN) model. In this study, we compared the three methods of discretization used a confusion matrix. Based on the earthquake damage data, the K-means clustering method produced the highest level of accuracy. This result indicates that K-means is the best method for discretizing the data that we use in this study.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Stella, Enrico. "The analysis of the collapse of a precast r.c. industrial building during the 29th may 2012 emilia romagna earthquake." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2014. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/8009/.

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Analysis of the collapse of a precast r.c. industrial building during the 2012 Emilia earthquake, focus on the failure mechanisms in particular on the flexure-shear interactions. Analysis performed by a time history analysis using a FEM model with the software SAP2000. Finally a reconstruction of the collapse on the basis of the numerical data coming from the strength capacity of the elements failed, using formulation for lightly reinforced columns with high shear and bending moment.
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Guillaud, Lucile M. (Lucile Marie). "Probability of derailment under earthquake conditions." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38236.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2006.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 141-144).
A quantitative assessment of the probability of derailment under earthquake conditions is presented. Two derailment modes are considered: by vibratory motion - during the ground motion - and by permanent track deformation - after the motion ended. Criteria for derailment that apply to both modes are derived in terms of peak transversal acceleration and peak transversal displacement. This allows a direct comparison between the two causes of derailment. We find that the first mode of derailment (by vibratory motion) dominates over the second mode (by track damage). The model considers the effect of spatial non-homogeneities in soil and structural characteristic and the incoherence of the ground motion into the assessment of derailment risk. The lateral motion experienced by the train under non-synchronous vibration of the track is obtained as the superposition of two contributions: one is the track motion at a fixed location and the other is the motion as the train travels on deformed tracks. Under linear elastic conditions, a method to obtain the power spectral density function for ground acceleration is presented and used to obtain acceleration and displacement response spectra.
(cont.) The second component of motion depends on speed. It is found that the train motion due to track deformation has small effects at ordinary speeds but that it becomes noticeable as the speed increases and the support spacing decreases. In general, it is shown that changes in soil and structural properties present a higher risk for derailment by vibratory motion. In some cases, the second component of train motion may increase the acceleration due to track motion at a single location by a factor of two. The analysis is first done assuming linear behavior of the soil and structure and then nonlinearities and permanent deformations are included. The elastic analysis is found to be adequate, except for structures with natural periods exceeding 1 second where the elastic analysis yields conservative estimates in comparison with the inelastic case.
by Lucile M. Guillaud.
S.M.
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Budimir, Mirianna. "Cascading natural hazards : probability and loss modelling for earthquakes and earthquake-triggered landslides." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2015. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/378652/.

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Yetton, Mark D. "The probability and consequences of the next alpine fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/6879.

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Detailed paleoseismic investigation of the Alpine Fault, South Island, New Zealand, has been undertaken at locations which bracket the central and north sections of the fault, between the Hokitika and Ahaura River. A total of seven trenches and pits have been excavated at four localities along approximately 75 kilometres of the fault. From these excavations a total of 16 radiocarbon dates provide age constraints on the timing of the most recent two earthquakes. This trenching demonstrates that the most recent rupture occurred after 1660 AD, and most probably around 1700 - 1750 AD. There is consistent evidence for this event in the trenches in the central section of the fault. The surface rupture has extended into the north section of the fault as far as the Haupiri River area, which is 25 km northeast of the Alpine Fault junction with the Hope Fault. An earlier event at around 1600 AD can be recognised throughout the study area, and this is the most recent event in the trench locations north of the Haupiri River. An updated record of landslide and aggradation terrace ages is consistent with two earthquakes over this period, but this does not significantly refine the estimates of their timing. However, the analysis of indigenous forest age in Westland and Buller reveals two periods of synchronous regional forest damage at 1625 ± 15 AD and 1715 ± 15 AD. I infer that these two episodes of forest damage correspond to the two earthquakes revealed in the trenches for this same time period. Analysis of growth rings in trees which are old enough to have survived these earthquakes indicates that the most recent event occurred in 1717 AD. The growth ring anomalies also indicate a northeast earthquake limit near the Haupiri River. The most recent 1717 AD event appears to have been a synchronous rupture for a distance of over 375 km, from Milford Sound in the south Westland section of the fault, northeast to the Haupiri River. Based on the forest disturbance record, the earlier earthquake at 1625 ± 15 AD had a rupture length of at least 250 km, but further work is required to determine the southwest and northeast limits of this event. A range of methods is used here to estimate the probability of the next earthquake occurring on the central section of the Alpine Fault and all the calculated probabilities are relatively high. The most robust method, that of Nishenko and Buland 1987, suggests a conditional fifty-year probability in the order of 65 ± 15%. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the conditional probabilities of rupture are not significantly affected by assumptions regards the exact timing of the last earthquake, or even the number of most recent earthquakes, and conditional fifty-year probabilities of rupture remain at around 50% or higher. Based on the previous earthquake events, the next Alpine Fault earthquake is likely to have a Moment Magnitude of 8 ± 0.25, and will have a widely felt regional impact. Very strong ground shaking will occur in the epicentral area of the Southern Alps and central Westland. For most of the central South Island the ground shaking is likely to be stronger than that experienced in any other historical earthquake. Landslides and liquefaction will cause the greatest immediate damage to the natural environment, and in the longer-term increased sediment loads will cause aggradation, channel avulsion, and flooding in the numerous rivers which drain the epicentral region. There will also be substantial and widespread damage to the built environment, in some cases at a considerable distance from the epicentre. Because of the rugged nature of the topography of the central South Island, and the expected regional extent of the earthquake shaking, one of the greatest problems during the post earthquake recovery phase will be difficulty in communication and access.
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Gros, Andreas. "Interactions in the evolution of dispersal distance and emigration probability." Doctoral thesis, kostenfrei, 2008. http://www.opus-bayern.de/uni-wuerzburg/volltexte/2008/2922/.

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Katakami, Satoshi. "Significance of Stress Interactions Related to the Occurrence of Shallow Slow Earthquakes." Kyoto University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/253094.

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Hur, Jieun. "Seismic performance evaluation of switchboard cabinets using nonlinear numerical models." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/45813.

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Past earthquake events have shown that seismic damage to electrical power systems in commercial buildings, hospitals, and other systems such as public service facilities can cause serious economic losses as well as operational problems. A methodology for evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of electrical power systems is needed and all essential components of the system must be included. A key system component is the switchboard cabinet which houses many different elements which control and monitor electrical power usage and distribution within a building. Switchboard cabinets vary in size and complexity and are manufactured by a number of different suppliers; a typical cabinet design was chosen for detailed evaluation in this investigation. This study presents a comprehensive framework for the evaluation of the seismic performance of electrical switchboard cabinets. This framework begins with the introduction and description of the essential equipment in building electrical power systems and explains possible seismic damage to this equipment. The shortcomings of previous studies are highlighted and advanced finite element models are developed to aid in their vulnerability estimation. Unlike previous research in this area, this study proposes practical, computationally efficient, and versatile numerical models, which can capture the critical nonlinear behavior of switchboard cabinets subjected to seismic excitations. A major goal of the current study was the development of nonlinear numerical models that can accommodate various support boundary conditions ranging from fixed, elasto-plastic to free. Using both linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses, this study presents an enhanced evaluation of the seismic behavior of switchboard cabinets. First the dynamic characteristics of switchboard cabinets are determined and then their seismic performance is assessed through nonlinear time history analysis using an expanded suite of ground motions. The seismic responses and associated ground motions are described and analyzed using probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs). Based on the PSDMs, the effectiveness and practicality of common intensity measures are discussed for different components. Correlation of intensity measures and seismic responses are then estimated for each component, and their seismic performance and uncertainties are quantified in terms of engineering demand parameters. The results of this study are intended for use in the seismic vulnerability assessment of essential electrical equipment in order to achieve more reliable electrical power systems resulting in reduced overall risk of both physical and operational failures of this important class of nonstructural components.
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Catalli, Flaminia <1977&gt. "Development and application of a physical model for the estimate of the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2007. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/356/1/Tesi_CATALLI_07.pdf.

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Catalli, Flaminia <1977&gt. "Development and application of a physical model for the estimate of the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2007. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/356/.

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Herovic, Emina. "THE CHALLENGES OF COMMUNICATING LOW PROBABILITY AND HIGH CONSEQUENCE RISK: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE PRE-CRISIS AND EMERGENCY-RISK COMMUNICATION." UKnowledge, 2016. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/comm_etds/50.

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The Crisis and Emergency-Risk Communication (CERC) model is effective in providing communication recommendations for public health agencies and shows potential for use by other agencies with similar crises characterizations. The current study explores the challenges of earthquake scientists in communicating earthquake risk during the pre-crisis stage in order to grasp experts’ experience and gain insight into the complex and multifaceted world of communicating earthquake risk. The researcher integrates the in-depth knowledge with the recommendations of the pre-crisis stage of the CERC model. This study employs qualitative interviewing with earthquake scientists (N = 21) from the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Categorized under general challenges, communication challenges, and communicating probability challenges, findings from this study indicate that earthquake scientists face eight unique challenges, such as communicating uncertainty, emphasizing their responsibility as solely hazard communicators, and keeping public attention during earthquake quiet periods. Implications for earthquake scientists during the pre-crisis stage of CERC are discussed and recommendations are provided.
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Books on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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1939-, Williams M. E., Nishenko S. P, Ebel J. E, Geological Survey (U.S.), United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency., and New England States Earthquake Consortium., eds. Proceedings of the working group meeting on northeast United States earthquake probability, April 28-29, 1993, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. [Denver, CO]: U.S. Geological Survey, 1995.

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Manolis, G. D. Stochastic structural dynamics in earthquake engineering. Southampton: WITPress, 2001.

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1939-, Williams M. E., Nishenko S. P, Ebel J. E, Geological Survey (U.S.), United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency., and New England States Earthquake Consortium., eds. Proceedings of the working group meeting on northeast United States earthquake probability, April 28-29, 1993, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. [Denver, CO]: U.S. Geological Survey, 1995.

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Shamsher, Prakash, American Society of Civil Engineers. Committee on Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering., and ASCE National Convention (1997 : Minneapolis, Minn.), eds. Seismic analysis and design for soil-pile-structure interactions: Proceedings of a session sponsored by the Committee on Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering of the Geo-Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers in conjunction with the ASCE National Convention in Minneapolis, Minnesota, October 5-8, 1997. Reston, VA: The Society, 1997.

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L, Crosson William, and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., eds. Regional-scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model. Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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L, Crosson William, and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., eds. Regional-scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model. Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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L, Crosson William, and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., eds. Regional-scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model. Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., ed. A remote-sensing based technique to account for sub-grid scale variability of land surface properties. Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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Koliopoulos, P. K., and G. D. Manolis. Stochastic Structural Dynamics in Earthquake Engineering (Advances in Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 8). Computational Mechanics, Inc., 2001.

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Cooke, Roger M., Daan Nieboer, and Jolanta Misiewicz. Fat-Tailed Distributions: Data, Diagnostics and Dependence. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2014.

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Book chapters on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Cheng, Chin-Tung, Pao-Shan Hsieh, Po-Shen Lin, Yin-Tung Yen, and Chung-Han Chan. "Probability Seismic Hazard Mapping of Taiwan." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering, 1–25. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_100-1.

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Cheng, Chin-Tung, Pao-Shan Hsieh, Po-Shen Lin, Yin-Tung Yen, and Chung-Han Chan. "Probability Seismic Hazard Mapping of Taiwan." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering, 1997–2020. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35344-4_100.

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Li, Jie, and Jianbing Chen. "Probability Density Evolution Method in Stochastic Dynamics." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering, 1–14. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_333-1.

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Li, Jie, and Jianbing Chen. "Probability Density Evolution Method in Stochastic Dynamics." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering, 1986–97. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35344-4_333.

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Tyuleneva, S. G., and S. L. Yunga. "Dispersion and Probability Density Function for Focal Mechanism Tensors." In Earthquake Hazard and Risk, 77–84. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0243-5_7.

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Franchin, Paolo, and Paolo Emilio Pinto. "Direct Probability-Based Seismic Design of RC Buildings." In Advances in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering, 235–44. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8746-1_22.

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De Masi, Anna. "Spin Systems with Long Range Interactions." In From Classical to Modern Probability, 25–81. Basel: Birkhäuser Basel, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-8053-4_2.

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Peçi, V. "The Probability of the Time Occurrence of Strong Earthquake for Some Zones in Albania." In Earthquake Hazard and Risk, 17–23. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0243-5_2.

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Choi, Edwin, and Peter Hall. "Nonparametric analysis of earthquake point-process data." In State of the art in probability and statistics, 324–44. Beachwood, OH: Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/lnms/1215090076.

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Schwan, Logan, Claude Boutin, Matthew Dietz, Luis Padron, Pierre-Yves Bard, Erdin Ibraim, Orlando Maeso, Juan J. Aznárez, and Colin Taylor. "Multi-Building Interactions and Site-City Effect: An Idealized Experimental Model." In Experimental Research in Earthquake Engineering, 459–76. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10136-1_28.

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Conference papers on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Gu, Xianglin, Yaoyao Zhang, and Qianqian Yu. "Concurrent Probability of Earthquake and Hurricane." In IABSE Congress, New York, New York 2019: The Evolving Metropolis. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/newyork.2019.2248.

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<p>Infrastructures are inevitably affected by multiple hazards during their service lives. Extreme loads, although occurring in a low frequency, may lead to catastrophic accidents and significant socioeconomic losses. Currently, research work on multi-hazards can be categorized into three groups: (1) joint hazards analysis, (2) physical vulnerability of a structure, and (3) damage analysis of a structure. However, the risk analysis of a structure is usually conducted to assume that the effect of multiple hazards on the structure is the superposition of effects caused by different kinds of hazards, and the interaction of hazards on structural effects is not considered. This paper proposed a theoretical evaluation method for concurrent probability of earthquake and hurricane, which is the basis for multi-hazard analysis of structures. The theoretical solution was validated to be reasonable by the numerical results from Monte Carlo method.</p>
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Narita, Kenji, Munemasa Tokunaga, Keiichi Goto, and Kimitoshi Sakai. "Derailment probability of whole railway lines during an earthquake, considering the structure types of bridge, embankment and tunnel." In IABSE Congress, Christchurch 2021: Resilient technologies for sustainable infrastructure. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/christchurch.2021.1126.

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<p>The derailment probability of trains on embankments and in tunnels is important for the evaluation of derailment fragility throughout the whole railway line during earthquakes. This study aimed to predict the number of trains expected to derail on a whole line during an earthquake. Nonlinear vehicle–structure interaction analyses revealed that the probability of derailment exceeded 50% when the ground acceleration was approximately 370 Gal on bridges, 900 Gal on embankments, and 1200 Gal in tunnels. The expected number of derailments was approximately 1–8 trains in the case of L2 spectrum I, considering the probability of derailment occurrence for each structure type.</p>
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Yang, Jianfeng, Handing Wang, Xiaoming Zhang, Bingchen Feng, Weijin Wang, and Zhao Wang. "Seismic Risk Analysis of the 380VAC Emergency Electrical Power Distribution Cabinets of a Nuclear Power Plant in China." In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-66548.

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According to the research of the operating principle, installation position and running environment of the 380VAC emergency electrical power distribution cabinets (Hereinafter referred to as electrical cabinets) of a nuclear power plant in China, there are three aspects caused by earthquake that seriously affect the safety of the electrical cabinets, including relay chatter, failure of electrical cabinet structure and spatial interactions. Relay chatter refers to contacts of the relay being changed during the period of strong shaking. It may lead to associated circuits malfunction and the equipment failure of the relay control unless it can be effectively reset. The purpose of relay chatter is to find out these relays whose consequences are unacceptable after earthquake and calculate failure probability. Failure of electrical cabinet structure in the earthquake is to carry out seismic fragility evaluation. The goal of seismic fragility evaluation is to assess a given value which describes the ground acceleration capacity and the corresponding uncertainties, and then, the conditional probability of failure as a function of peak ground acceleration [PGA] and a family of fragility curves can be obtained. In this paper, finite element model of the electrical cabinet is established using ANSYS Workbench software. According to the electric cabinets seismic failure mode, we take some of the parameters including the parameters of the floor response spectrum, material strength parameters and so on as the input to calculate the median ground acceleration capacity and the corresponding uncertain parameters. The seismic spatial interactions are defined as the electrical cabinet destroyed due to the surrounding objects failure by falling, collapse, etc. Therefore, if necessary, it is needed to evaluate the seismic fragility of the surrounding objects. Usually through walking down, checking the design drawings or the combination of the above methods, we can find out the surrounding objects for an electric cabinet. So we analyze the seismic risk of the electrical cabinet from the above three aspects. When the results of the above three aspects obtained, we convolute of the electrical cabinet fragility with the seismic hazard curve which represents the frequency of occurrence of earthquake motions at various levels of intensity at the site. Then Monte Carlo sampling is adopted to analyze the uncertainty distribution. In this article, Risk Spectrum Professional software (reference 8) and Risk Spectrum Hazard lite software (reference 9) are used to complete the calculation and get some quantitative seismic risk insights. The above seismic risk insights can support the establishment of seismic probabilistic safety analysis model (Hereinafter referred to as SPSA) for a nuclear power plant, which helps to formulate seismic improvement strategies.
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Crawford, Anthony L., Robert E. Spears, and Mark J. Russell. "Eliminating Conservatism in the Piping System Analysis Process Through Application of a Suite of Locally Appropriate Seismic Input Motions." In ASME 2009 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2009-77814.

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Seismic analysis is of great importance in the evaluation of nuclear systems due to the heavy influence such loading has on their designs. Current Department of Energy seismic analysis techniques for a nuclear safety-related piping system typically involve application of a single conservative seismic input applied to the entire system [1]. A significant portion of this conservatism comes from the need to address the overlapping uncertainties in the seismic input and in the building response that transmits that input motion to the piping system. The approach presented in this paper addresses these two sources of uncertainty through the application of a suite of 32 earthquake realizations with equal probability of occurrence whose collective performance addresses the total uncertainty while each individual motion represents a single variation of it. It represents an extension of the soil-structure interaction analysis methodology of SEI/ASCE 43-05 [2] from the structure to individual piping components. Because this approach is computationally intensive, automation and other measures have been developed to make such an analysis efficient. These measures are detailed in this paper.
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Nakaki, David K., Philip S. Hashimoto, James J. Johnson, Yahya Bayraktarli, and Olivier Zuchuat. "Probabilistic Seismic Soil Structure Interaction Analysis of the Mu¨hleberg Nuclear Power Plant Reactor and SUSAN Buildings." In ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Division/K-PVP Conference. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2010-25343.

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Probabilistic seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) analysis was performed for the Mu¨hleberg Nuclear Power Plant Reactor and SUSAN Buildings in support of the seismic probabilistic saftety assessment of the plant. An efficient hybrid method, employing computer programs SASSI2000 and CLASSI presented in a companion paper, was used in this analysis. The method takes advantage of the capability of SASSI2000 to analyze embedded structures with irregular geometry and the computational efficiency of CLASSI to rapidly perform the SSI response analysis of large structure models. Fixed base finite element models of the buildings were first developed from which the structure geometry, nodal masses, natural frequencies, and mode shapes were extracted. The structure embedments were modeled using SASSI2000. Impedance functions and scattering vectors were calculated by imposing rigid body constraints to the embedded foundation. The fixed base structure dynamic properties and the foundation impedances and scattering functions were input to CLASSI to perform the response analysis. The probabilistic analysis was performed following the Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) approach documented in NUREG/CR-2015. Variables defined by probability distributions were sampled according to a stratified sampling approach. The combination of the parameters for each simulation was determined by Latin Hypercube experimental design. Variables in the LHS included the earthquake ground acceleration time histories, structure stiffness and damping, and soil stiffness and damping. Thirty response simulations were performed using CLASSI in which the variable values were randomly selected. The use of CLASSI has the advantage that the response analysis simulations can be executed in a fraction of the time that would be required with SASSI2000 alone. For each simulation, in-structure response spectra (ISRS) were calculated at selected locations in the buildings. Probabilistic distributions, described by the median and 84th percentile response spectra, were calculated from the thirty simulations. The probabilistic ISRS are subsequently used in the seismic fragility evaluations of selected essential equipment.
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Stein, Seth, James Neely, Leah Salditch, and Bruce D. Spencer. "WHEN’S THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE? A MORE REALISTIC MODEL OF EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AND PROBABILITY." In GSA Connects 2022 meeting in Denver, Colorado. Geological Society of America, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2022am-377871.

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Cruz-Chamorro, Andrea E., Rafhael Luna-Tezna, and Aidcer L. Vidot-Vega. "Nonlinear soil–structure interaction of retaining walls with pulse-like earthquakes." In IABSE Symposium, Prague 2022: Challenges for Existing and Oncoming Structures. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/prague.2022.1543.

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<p>Near fault earthquakes have been distinguished for their probability of having pulse-like characteristics with higher velocity time history amplitudes. This could be significant for retaining walls found in bridges and nuclear power plant buildings. Several two-dimensional numerical models of an embedded wall-soil system were developed in Abaqus® by varying the wall rigidity and friction coefficient between the wall and soil. The friction coefficient was varied from 0 to 0.5. In one model, the wall is very rigid and in the other the wall is flexible with original modulus of elasticity. Seismic pressures in the soil-wall system are evaluated. The analyses are performed considering non-pulse and pulse-like motions that match a narrow-band modified target spectrum for a moment magnitude of 7.70. The objective is to study how the soil-wall system is affected by pulse-like seismic events and how the contact conditions affect this response.</p>
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Hengesh, James V., Michael Angell, William R. Lettis, and Jeffery L. Bachhuber. "A Systematic Approach for Mitigating Geohazards in Pipeline Design and Construction." In 2004 International Pipeline Conference. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2004-0147.

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Pipeline projects are often faced with the challenge of balancing efficient design and construction with mitigation of potential hazards posed by low probability events, such as earthquakes and landslides. Though systematic characterization of geological hazards is sometimes perceived as an added project expense, failure to recognize and mitigate hazards at an early stage can lead to schedule delays and substantial liability, repair, and business interruption costs. For example, it is estimated that failure of the 660-mm Trans-Ecuador pipeline in the 1987 earthquake cost roughly $850 million in repairs and lost revenue. In order to minimize, mitigate, or avoid geological hazards, pipeline design projects can implement a phased investigative approach to refine route selection and develop parameters for detailed design. These studies provide information on geological conditions that progress from the general to specific and have associated uncertainties that decrease with increasing focus of investigations. A geohazard investigation for a pipeline project should begin with a Phase I “desk-top” study to evaluate regional geological conditions, establish a project specific information system, and make a preliminary assessment of landslide, fault rupture, liquefaction, geotechnical and constructability issues that will need to be considered in later phases of design and construction. Although the results of desk-top studies are limited and have large associated uncertainties, the initial results help to refine route selection and/or identify areas that may require hazard mitigation measures. Phase II investigations include acquisition of detailed corridor specific data such as topography and aerial photography, development of geological strip maps, and assessment of the pipeline corridor by an expert-level Terrain Evaluation Team (TET) with broad knowledge of geo-engineering issues. Assessment of the corridor by the TET results in recommendations for route refinement to avoid hazardous terrain, and identification of areas requiring detailed Phase III investigations. Phase III consists of detailed investigations of critical geohazard features to develop parameters for final design of hazard mitigation measures (e.g. fault crossing design). The geohazard features are characterized to determine permanent ground deformation (PGD) parameters, such as location, geometry, amount and direction of displacement, and recurrence rates. Interaction with the pipeline design team should be continued through all three phases to maximize efficiency and ensure timely integration of results in route selection, refinement and design. Examples provided from projects in Turkey, California, and the Indian Ocean demonstrate the successful implementation of this phased investigative approach to characterizing and mitigating geohazards for both onshore and offshore pipeline projects. Implementation of this approach has resulted in significant project cost savings and reduced risk.
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KARIMI, IMAN, EYKE HÜLLERMEIER, and KONSTANTIN MESKOURIS. "AN EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD BASED ON FUZZY PROBABILITY." In Proceedings of the 6th International FLINS Conference. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812702661_0071.

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BUSEMEYER, J. R., and ZHENG WANG. "QUANTUM PROBABILITY APPLIED TO SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES." In First Interdisciplinary Chess Interactions Conference. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789814295895_0007.

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Reports on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Onur, T., C. E. Ventura, and W. D. L. Finn. Effect of earthquake probability level on loss estimations. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/215330.

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Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin, Garrett Staines, Haley Viehman, Haixue Shen, and Megan Altenritter. Interactions of aquatic animals with the ORPC OCGen® in Cobscook Bay, Maine: Monitoring behavior change and assessing the probability of encounter with a deployed MHK device. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), October 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1332311.

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