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1
Packard, Heidi A. "Are long-term earnings targets forecasts?" Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117997.
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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2018.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 37-39).
This paper examines whether earnings targets used in long-term performance-based compensation plans predict future performance. Using a sample of targets from long-term grants made to CEOs from 2007 to 2012, I find that earnings targets provide information about future earnings outcomes; however, analysts do not respond to the information targets provide at the time of disclosure. Rather, I find analysts primarily adjust their expectations in the year of the performance period. The information value of targets is robust to variation in crosssectional factors such as monitoring and financial reporting concerns, and concentrated in cases where agency conflicts are low and traditional management forecasts are not available. To my knowledge, this analysis is the first to document a forecasting role for the long-term targets used in earnings-based compensation plans.
by Heidi A. Packard.
Ph. D.
2
Wang, X. (Xin). "Earnings management to meet analysts’ forecasts." Master's thesis, University of Oulu, 2016. http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-201606082469.
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The object of this thesis is to investigate the tool of earnings management firms use to meet analysts’ forecasts and then provide evidence for setting slightly meet and slightly miss as indicator of earnings management. Managers have sort of incentives to meet analysts’ forecasts. In the prior literature, managers have more motivations to meet analysts’ forecasts through earnings management than real activities. I argue that managers will manipulate discretionary accruals in order to beat analysts’ forecasts. And I also argue that slightly meet and slightly miss could be an indicator of earnings management.
In the empirical examination, I use discretionary accrual as proxy of earnings management and recalculate it using Jones (1991). Meet analysts’ forecasts are calculated as the difference between actual EPS and forecasts EPS. A frequency test of Meet is presented as well. The result show: (1) Frequency table gives a higher frequency in slightly beat analysts’ forecasts than other situations. (2) A significant positive correlation between slightly meet and miss and discretionary accrual, which capture that if firm try to get close to analysts’ forecast, the discretionary accruals will inceases. This significant correlation also gives strong support to set slightly meet and miss as an indicator of earnings management.
3
Shaikh, Sarah. "Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/556588.
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Using a novel setting, I examine the relation between a CEO's career concerns and the provision of an annual earnings forecast. Specifically, I exploit staggered changes in non-compete enforcement laws in three U.S. states as a source of exogenous variation in a CEO’s career concerns. Consistent with theory suggesting that career concerns increase a manager's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non-compete enforcement. Further, cross-sectional analyses indicate that the lower probability of forecast issuance is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting, and is more vulnerable to dismissal.
4
Smith, Kevin R. "Earnings Management Constraints and Market Reactions to Subsequent Earnings Surprises." Diss., Tucson, Arizona : University of Arizona, 2005. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu%5Fetd%5F1051%5F1%5Fm.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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Jackson, Andrew Blair Accounting Australian School of Business UNSW. "Stock return volatility surrounding management earnings forecasts." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Accounting, 2010. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/44839.
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The primary aim of this study is to investigate the stock return volatility surrounding management earnings forecasts. Disclosure by managers of expected earnings are particularly important communications, and as such, it is important to understand the capital market implications surrounding them. In doing so, the research questions are essentially aimed at examining the stock return volatility, first, at the release of a management earnings forecast, and second, at the eventual announcement of the realised earnings for that period. The first test investigates whether there is an increase in volatility surrounding a management earnings forecast for those firms who release them compared to a matched-firm sample of firms without a management earnings forecast at that date, and then further examines that result based on different forecast antecedents and forecast characteristics. Next, this study tests, for firms who do release a management earnings forecast during the year, whether stock volatility is lower than firms who do not release a management earnings forecast at the eventual earnings announcement date. In brief, the evidence using the Garman and Klass [1980] ???best analytic scale-invariant estimator??? of volatility in an Australian context, between 1993 and 2003, finds that stock return volatility is greater for bad news forecasts, forecasts of low specificity, and forecasts issued by firms perceived ex ante as being of lower credibility using both permutation analysis and modelling daily volatility. At the earnings announcement date, however, there is no evidence that stock return volatility is lower for firms that issue management earnings forecasts during the year. Overall, this result challenges the information asymmetry argument in the literature that disclosure will reduce volatility in the long-run.
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Runyan, Bruce Wayne. "The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts." Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2272.
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This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality
and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are
subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due to the additional risk
resulting from the more complex multinational environment. Prior research demonstrates
that firms that fail to meet or beat market expectations experience disproportionate
market losses at earnings announcement dates. The complexities and greater uncertainty
resulting from higher levels of multinationality are expected to be negatively associated
with management earnings forecast precision, accuracy, and bias (downward versus
upward).
Results of the study are mixed. Regarding forecast precision, two measures of
multinationality (foreign sales / total sales and the number of geographic segments) are
significantly negatively related to management earnings forecast precision. This was the
expected relationship. Regarding forecast accuracy, contrary to expectations, forecast
accuracy is positively related to multinationality, with regard to the number of
geographic segments a firm discloses. Regarding forecast bias, unexpectedly, two
measures of multinationality (foreign sales / total sales and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management
earnings forecasts.
7
Trinh, Chau Thi My. "Earnings forecasts : model development, evaluation and theoretical analysis." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.686827.
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Earnings forecasts are an important input for equity valuation and asset allocation decision. Nevertheless, there are many contradictory findings about the most accurate model as well as the best proxy for the market expectation of future earnings in the literature. Hence, with the aim of providing solutions to these problems, this thesis comprises four main studies of different issues related to forecasting earnings.
8
Markarian, Garen. "Analyst Forecasts, Earnings Management, and Insider Trading Patterns." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2005. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1102058931.
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Kala, Tejshree. "Does the manager matter to users of management earnings forecasts?" Phd thesis, Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/148174.
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Prior research provides evidence on how manager
attributes affect characteristics of management earnings
forecasts and how firm characteristics affect market
participants’ perception of the credibility of management
earnings forecasts. Using a manager-firm matched panel dataset,
this thesis examines whether the perceived credibility of
management earnings forecasts, as measured by investors’ and
analysts’ responses to management earnings forecasts news, are
influenced by: (1) the forecasting track records of individual
managers, and (2) manager attributes. The results indicate that,
overall, investors’ responses to management earnings forecasts
vary with the firms’ forecasting track records but not with the
forecasting track records of individual managers or with manager
attributes. The results indicate that analysts’ responses to
management earnings forecasts are positively associated with
managers’ individual forecasting track records. Results also
indicate that analysts react less strongly to management earnings
forecasts issued by CEOs with CFO experience, and react more
strongly to management earnings forecasts issued by managers who
are also the chairperson. Overall, the results suggest that
analysts, being more sophisticated users, consider both manager-
and firm-specific characteristics in their assessments of
management earnings forecasts. This thesis contributes to the
literature by providing a more comprehensive understanding of
whether manager-specific forecasting track records and manager
attributes matter to investors and analysts. The findings
reported in this thesis may help to inform the communicators
(firms and managers) of management earnings forecasts about what
matters to users, which may help them vary their forecasting
behaviours. Results may also help inform boards of directors
about what matters to users of management earnings forecasts and
help the board better monitor managers in this regard, and,
inform observers such as regulators and commentators in providing
signals about what matters to users in terms managers’
forecasting behaviours and attributes.
10
Cairney, Timothy D. "Credibility of annual management earnings forecasts : theory and evidence /." Diss., This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-164623/.
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Koch, Adam Stuart. "Financial distress and the credibility of management earnings forecasts /." Digital version accessible at:, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/main.
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Huseman, Olivia Grace. "Properties of management earnings forecasts following mergers and acquisitions." Diss., University of Iowa, 2017. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/5511.
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I study how the properties of management earnings forecasts change after a firm merges with or acquires another company. I find management is more likely to issue a forecast in a merger or an acquisition firm-year than in a non-M&A firm-year. Compared to forecasts issued by the firm in non-M&A periods, the first forecast issued after completing an M&A deal is less likely to be bundled with an earnings announcement and the forecast range is wider, although more likely to be optimistic than non-M&A forecasts. I find the increase in forecast range width and optimism persist in forecasts issued up to the end of the fiscal year but are not present in the initial forecast issued in the subsequent year. Finally, I find variation in M&A experience and M&A type influence management earnings forecast properties. Because prior studies of management forecasts often delete observations containing mergers and acquisitions or simply include the firm’s market-to-book, my study informs researchers about how the properties of management forecasts are impacted by the uncertainty from a merger or an acquisition.
13
Macalister, Hamish Campbell. "Aggregate earnings, forecasts and revisions: evaluation of the information in, and characteristics of, aggregated analysts' forecasts." Thesis, University of Auckland, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2292/7213.
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I investigate the information in aggregated US equity analysts' earnings forecasts. Despite a voluminous body of research evaluating the information in, and characteristics of, equity analysts' forecasts, relatively little is known regarding aggregated forecasts. However, Kothari, Lewellen and Warner (2006) demonstrate how estimated relationships between, for example, earnings and returns may differ markedly at the aggregate level compared with the individual stock level. I generate time series of aggregated forecast earnings, aggregated forecast revisions and aggregated realized earnings for the period extending from the first quarter of 1979 through to the last quarter of 2009. These variables are employed in three examinations of aggregated earnings expectations. Firstly, prior research indicates significant information in analysts' forecasts for future realized earnings, and strong positive correlation between realized earnings and indicators of macroeconomic activity. I therefore hypothesize significant information in aggregated analysts' forecasts for future realized economic activity. Secondly, I investigate the informational efficiency of analysts' forecasts with respect to realized macroeconomic variables, and implications of earnings revision predictability for return predictability. Thirdly, I employ aggregated earnings revisions as proxies for market earnings surprise in tests of cash flow and discount rate effects in market returns. I find evidence of statistically significant information for future US industrial production growth in aggregated analysts' forecasts, the magnitude of which is a partial function of earnings smoothing by management, firm size and earnings cyclicality. I also find evidence of systematic underreaction by analysts to realized macroeconomic factors, resulting in revision predictability which in turn is able to explain significant systematic variation in future industry returns. In addition, my results suggest that the negative relationship between aggregated earnings surprise and contemporaneous returns identified by Kothari et al. (2006) is at least partially a product of the period they evaluate. In robustness tests employing both aggregated realized earnings and aggregated forecast revisions, I find evidence of positive (albeit insignificant) relationships between these proxies for earnings surprise and contemporaneous market returns. My results do not support the notion of a discount rate effect dominating a cash flow effect at the aggregate level.Whole document restricted until Aug. 2013, but available by request, use the feedback form to request access.
14
Coulton, Jeffrey James Accounting Australian School of Business UNSW. "The strategic use of prior-period benchmark disclosures in management earnings forecasts." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Accounting, 2005. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/22818.
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I investigate the way in which Australian managers issue their earnings forecasts, and the impact this has on the reaction of equity investors and security analysts. Using a sample of 233 management earnings forecasts issued from 1994 to 2001, I find that managers are more likely to issue earnings forecasts when they have bad earnings news than good earnings news. I find that a vast majority of forecasts are ???framed??? by the use of an accompanying earnings benchmark. Forecasts are issued with varying degrees of specificity (or precision) and also with variation in additional accompanying disclosures. Forecasts issued with negative framing (forecast earnings less than benchmark earnings) are more likely to be accompanied by statements about factors external to the firm in explaining performance, while forecasts issued with positive framing (forecast earnings greater than benchmark earnings) are more likely to be accompanied by additional verifiable forecasts of components of earnings. I find the market reaction to earnings forecasts released with positive framing is higher than for forecasts released with negative framing, after controlling for forecast news and other forecast properties. I also examine security analysts??? forecasts around the release of management earnings forecasts and find that after the release of a management earnings forecast, analyst activity increases, but that analysts??? forecasts become less accurate and more biased. Neither the extent of analyst activity nor changes in analysts??? forecast accuracy or bias is related to forecast framing.
15
Kim, Ja Ryong. "Improving practices of price and earnings estimations." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/16193.
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Despite extensive research on price and earnings estimations, there are still puzzling results that have not been resolved. One of the puzzles in price estimation is that multiples using earnings forecasts outperform multiples using the residual income model (Liu, Nissim and Thomas, 2002). This puzzle undermines the validity of theory-based valuation models, which are originated from valuation theory and have been developed over the century. The first two projects of this thesis address this puzzle and explain mathematically how the pricing error of a multiple is determined by the correlation coefficient between price and a value driver. The projects then demonstrate that the puzzle in Liu, Nissim and Thomas (2002) is caused by the bad selection of residual income models and, in fact, the majority of residual income models (i.e. well-chosen residual income models) actually outperform multiples using earnings forecasts in pricing error. When models are examined in terms of future return generation, residual income models again outperform multiples using earnings forecasts, providing evidence that theory-based valuation models are superior to rule-of- thumb based multiples in price and intrinsic value estimations. The third project addresses an issue in earnings estimation by cross-sectional models. Recently, Hou, van Dijk and Zhang (2012) and Li and Mohanram (2014) introduce cross-sectional models in earnings estimation and argue that their cross-sectional models produce better earnings forecasts than analyst forecasts. However, their models suffer from one fundamental problem of cross-sectional models: the loss of firm-specific information in earnings estimation (Kothari, 2001). In other words, cross-sectional models apply the same coefficients (i.e. the same earnings persistence and future prospects) to all firms to estimate their earnings forecasts. The third project of this thesis addresses this issue by proposing a new model, a conditional cross-sectional model, which allows the coefficient on earnings to vary across firms. By allowing firms to use different earnings coefficients (i.e. different earnings persistence and future prospects), the project shows that a conditional cross-sectional model improves a cross-sectional model in all dimensions: a) bias, accuracy and earnings response coefficient; b) unscaled and scaled earnings estimations; and c) across all forecast horizons. The thesis contributes to the price and earnings estimations literature. First, the thesis addresses the decade-old puzzle in price estimation and rectifies the previous misunderstanding of valuation model performance. By demonstrating the superiority of theory-based valuation models over rule-of-thumb based multiples, the thesis encourages further development of theory-based valuation models. Second, in earnings estimation, the thesis provides future researchers a new model, which overcomes the fundamental problem of cross-sectional models in earnings estimation while keeping their advantages. In sum, the thesis improves the knowledge and practices of price and earnings estimations.
16
Sommers, Gregory Alan. "Market response to revisions in analysts' future years' earnings forecasts." Connect to resource, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1261245723.
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Komutphong, Thitiphol. "The usefulness of analysts' cash flow forecasts and analysts' earnings forecasts excluded by I/B/E/S." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.497755.
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This thesis reports the results of three studies that investigate the properties of analyst forecasts of US firms provided by I/B/E/S. Firstly, using annual I/B/E/S detail forecasts for US firms from 1993 through 2004, I document that analyst cash flow forecasts are superior to forecasts generated by statistical models across three forecast horizons. This property, however, declines in forecast horizon. More specifically, analyst cash flow forecasts with longer horizons appear to be much closer to forecasts generated by the simple adjustments of earnings forecasts. In addition, I investigate the determinants of cross-sectional variation in the comparative superiority of analyst forecasts relative to the best mechanical model, referred to as a random walk model without drift. The results suggest that timing advantage, cash flow volatility, the number of analyst following, and the number of forecast revisions are positively related to the comparative forecast superiority. The degree of comparative forecast superiority also decreases in forecast horizon. Consistent with prior studies, the findings indicate that analysts possess both contemporaneous and timing advantages for the sample.
18
Bagntasarian, Anachit. "The impact of CEO compensation, analysts' characteristics, earnings management and country governability on analysts' earnings forecasts." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2018. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/76656/.
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This thesis examines the impact of CEO compensation, analysts' characteristics, earnings management and country governability on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. In summary, the thesis includes the following chapters: Firstly, Chapter 2 examines the interplay between CEO compensation and analysts' forecast errors over different forecasting horizons. A unique analyst-level sample for U.S. firms covering the period between 1992 and 2015 has been employed. Evidence obtained from this analysis suggests that CEO compensation, measured by various forms such as restricted stock holdings and stock ownership would correct for optimism in analysts' earnings forecasts, whereas CEO bonus and sensitivity to changes in firm's value would exacerbate analysts' optimism. Results also show that CEO compensation would augment the effect of earnings management on analysts' forecasts with CEO bonus being of importance. The findings of this chapter also indicate that analysts' characteristics and regulation can affect earnings forecasts. Next, Chapter 3 investigates the effect of governance on analysts' earnings forecasts. By employing a comprehensive dataset of 911 U.S. firms for the period 2000 – 2014, this chapter demonstrates a strong positive association between the government effectiveness and analysts' earnings forecasts. We extend this analysis employing corporate governance variables such as CEO equity incentives and CEO power, whilst a possible cross-term association between governability and the former has also been examined. This chapter explores further the effects of earnings management on analysts' forecasts accuracy documenting a negative impact of the former on the latter. Lastly, underlying causality strands and endogeneity issues are addressed opting for a flexible panel VAR model. Finally, Chapter 4 presents evidence of the effects of corruption on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Using a global sample, this chapter reveals that analysts face greater difficulty in forecasting earnings in advanced and emerging countries due to the detrimental effect of corruption. Interestingly, findings suggest that for firms located in developing countries, corruption enhances analysts' accuracy. This chapter also shows that the effect of earnings manipulation on the accuracy of forecasts is aggravated in the presence of corruption, whilst greater country freedom would enhance analysts' accuracy when corruption is present.
19
Tian, Shu. "An evaluation of financial analysts' earnings forecasts across nine Asian countries." Thesis, University of Macau, 2005. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1636260.
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Constantinou, Constantina Philippou. "The relative informativeness of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.488446.
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Analysts are a major source of information in equity markets. Therefore, their earnings forecasts and stock recommendations are likely to be important for understanding how equity markets work. Analysts' earnings forecasts arc generally, optimistic and their buy/hold/sell recommendations influence stock prices. However, whether (and how) they underreact or overreact to information Is not yet clear. The present thesis discusses tile underreaction/overreaction issues and examines the information contents of analysts' recommendations.
21
Allee, Kristian Dietrich. "Estimating cost of equity capital with time-series forecasts of earnings." [Bloomington, Ind.] : Indiana University, 2008. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3331266.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, 2008.Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on Jul 23, 2009). Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-11, Section: A, page: 4394. Adviser: James M. Wahlen.
22
Pae, Jinhan. "Earnings management and its impact on the information content of earnings and the properties of analysts forecasts." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0023/NQ38951.pdf.
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Yu, Yin. "Essays on the Use of Earnings Dynamics as an Earnings Benchmark by Financial Market Participants." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1282062083.
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Alexandrou, George A. "Wealth and earnings implications of corporate divestments : an empirical analysis of stock returns and analysts' forecasts of earnings." Thesis, City University London, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.271108.
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Kwack, So Yean. "Impact of Connections Within the Top Management Team on Managerial Turnover, Earnings Management, and Voluntary Disclosure." Diss., Temple University Libraries, 2016. http://cdm16002.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/375196.
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Business Administration/AccountingPh.D.
The top management team is important to understand as the executives within the top management team would have long-term implications for a firm's investment, operating and financing decisions which would affect the firm value. As these executives may have pre-existing connections outside the current firm, they are likely to be affected by these connections within the top management team. In this dissertation, I draw upon the literature in sociology that discusses different mechanisms of connections; 1) better information transfer, 2) cohesion and better coordination, and 3) favorable treatment to see how the connections within the top management team affects different decisions for the firm using data from 1999 to 2013. First, I find that the executives with connections to the CEO are less likely to be forced out and those with social connections to the CEO enjoy less sensitivity of involuntary turnover to performance. Notably, I find that this is consistent with CEOs favorably treating the connected executives rather than CEOs keeping connected executives for the benefits. Second, I find that firms with greater percentage of executives with connections to the CEO have greater accruals earnings management and lower likelihood of detection of accounting manipulations. I also show that the connections have an effect only when the joint tenure between the CEO and the executives are short. Finally, I document that firms with more closely connected top management team issue management earnings forecasts in a more precise form and issue more frequent and accurate forecasts. I show that this matters more when the top management team’s external network size is small.
Temple University--Theses
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Hennessey, Sean Michael. "The properties of revision of earnings forecasts by financial analysts : Canadian evidence." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.358104.
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Markarian, Garen Bricker Robert. "Analyst forecasts, earnings management and insider trading patterns incidence and performance consequences." Saarbrücken VDM Verlag Dr. Müller, 2005. http://d-nb.info/98940272X/04.
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Martin, Kris Rowland. "The Effect of Accounting Method Choice on Earnings Quality: A Study of Analysts' Forecasts of Earnings and Book Value." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/29240.
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Whether the quality of a firm's reported earnings affects investors' ability to predict
future earnings and stock returns is still a subject of much debate among accounting researchers.
Lev (1989) suggests that low quality earnings may be causing the relatively low correlation
between reported earnings and stock returns (or the market's evaluation of future earnings). This
dissertation used the valuation model described in Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson
(1995) to explore the possible links between accounting method choices and the ability of
investors to use reported earnings to predict future earnings. The results demonstrate that prior
researchers' assumptions regarding which accounting methods are generally conservative or
liberal are reasonably accurate over large numbers of firms. The results also show that one
group of analysts (Value Line Investment Survey) is able to predict future earnings more
accurately over medium-term and long-term forecast horizons for firms using generally
conservative accounting methods than those firms employing generally liberal accounting
methods.
This research adds to the prior "quality of earnings" research by showing that analysts
can predict earnings more accurately for certain classes of firms (i.e., firms using conservative
accounting methods), thus increasing our knowledge of what constitutes high-quality earnings.
The research also explores the effects of growth on the quality of earnings question, the effects
of firm size, leverage, and industry membership on the relationship, and the robustness of the
Feltham and Ohlson Model to alternative definitions of key components of the model.Ph. D.
29
Leece, Ryan Don. "Enterprise Risk Management, Earnings Predictability and the Cost of Debt." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/37506.
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The extant academic literature considers enterprise risk management (ERM) to be the fundamental paradigm for managing the portfolio of risks confronting organizations. However, there is debate as to whether ERM actually enhances stakeholder value. This study investigates whether ERM is associated with increased earnings predictability and a lower risk of firm failure, two theoretical predications regarding ERMâ s impact on stakeholder value.
My research utilizes the Security and Exchange Commissionâ s (SEC) enhanced proxy statement disclosures as of February 28th, 2010 to measure ERM performance. Additionally, in order to quantify the operational construct, textual analysis is performed to develop a measure of ERM performance to be used in econometric analyses.
The analyses presented in this paper investigate whether key predicted benefits of ERM are observable. Results support the proposition that ERM is associated with increased earnings predictability. Specifically, earnings and accruals are found to be more persistent for firms with better ERM performance. Additionally, analystsâ earnings forecasts are more accurate in the presence of enhanced ERM performance. Results are inconclusive with regards to ERMâ s ability to influence the risk of firm failure during this studyâ s sample period (i.e., 2007-2009). One explanation for this departure, the economic volatility during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, may make it difficult to empirically detect the relationship between ERM performance and the risk of firm failure.Ph. D.
30
Mira, Svetlana. "The determinants of the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts : a UK corporate perspective." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2006. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/55425/.
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The thesis comprises eight chapters. Following the introduction, the hypothesis of the thesis are presented. Then, the literature review outlines the studies that have touched upon the issues addressed in the thesis. Next, the methodology of the research is discussed. The results of the research are examined in the next three chapters, with concluding remarks provided in the final chapter. The reported evidence implies that the explored recommendations of The Code of Best Practices (Cadbury, 1992) are ineffective, in most of the cases, at mitigating the agency disclosure problem. Indeed, there is evidence that suggests that these recommendations may actually have an adverse impact on the accuracy of analyst earning forecasts. This is evinced by the fact that a greater proportion of non-executive directors on the board of directors, and higher institutional ownership, seem to be associated with less accurate analyst forecasts. Finally, the evidence suggests that research and development seems to have an embedded nature in firm-specific characteristics, having a weak impact upon the analysts' forecast error in the context of an ordinary least square regression only. However, analysts seem to be more accurate for firms with higher capital expenditure. Overall, the findings of the thesis make a contribution to three different streams of the literature; namely, the corporate governance, the intangible assets, and the analyst forecasting literature.
31
"Management earnings forecasts, cash flow forecasts and earnings management." ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, 2008. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3318443.
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Lee, Tin-Huei, and 李婷慧. "Voluntary earnings forecasts and analysts' forecasts." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/66958974263022271759.
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Ying, Yang Shang, and 楊尚穎. "The Interaction of Management Earnings Forecasts and Financial Analysts'' Earnings Forecasts." Thesis, 2002. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/95044392050364242164.
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碩士輔仁大學
金融研究所
90
The research focuses on two points: If financial analysts’ earnings forecast can be treat as market expect value; and after the management forecast, when the financial analysts’ earnings forecast revision direction is the same as management forecast, the abnormal return is bigger or not. Data consist of a sample of 353 companies of annual earnings per forecast for the period 2000 and 2001,the management and financial analysts earnings forecast comes from TEJ. The result is as follows: First, the financial analysts’ earnings forecast can be treated as market expect value, the middle value of financial analysts’ is better than average value. Second, only when management earnings forecast lower than market expect, and financial analysts’ earnings forecast revision upward, the abnormal return and the financial analysts’ revision has positive correlation.
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Kuan, Hsin-Yi, and 官心怡. "Management Earnings Forecasts as Targets for Earnings Manipulation." Thesis, 1994. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/45064995737247588217.
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Ting, Wei, and 丁緯. "Title of Thesis: The Type of Earnings Forecast Error and the influence of management financial forecasts on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts: the effect of earning level." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07817753222667689234.
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碩士淡江大學
會計學系
92
Many studies explored analysts’ forecast error type; however, the results are mixed. All of the over optimistic, over-reaction, and under-reaction types were supported. Based on psychology’s heuristic viewpoint, this study explores analysts’ and management’ earnings forecast error type. Then the relationship between the earnings level and forecast error is investigated. In addition, both the management financial forecasts and the analyst earnings forecasts are the important information for investors. The endogenous relationship between these two kinds forecasts implies that analysts might forecast in accordance with managements’ guidance. The another purpose of this study is to explore the influence of management financial forecasts on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts.Our results, according to the forecasted data from year 1998 to 2002 in Taiwan security market have fore. 1. Both analysts’ and management’ earnings forecast error type support the over optimistic. 2. The relationship between earnings level and earnings forecast error is significantly negative. 3. After controlling the earnings level, the finding of optimistic forecast error still existed in good news company, but not in bad news company. 4. Management financial forecasts can improve the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts significantly. 5. Bad news management forecast benefits more for the analysts than the good news. However, there is no relationship between the accuracy of management financial forecast in the prior year and that of analyst earnings forecast.
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Hu, Yung-Chun, and 胡永純. "The Association between the Earnings Forecasts and Earnings Management." Thesis, 1997. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86089741788266918687.
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Chou, Ying-Yan, and 周櫻燕. "The impact of earnings management on analysts’ earnings forecasts." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90733671649466259678.
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碩士中國文化大學
會計研究所
97
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of earnings management on analysts’ earnings forecasts. The research firms in the fourth quarter of 2007, analysts forecast earnings targets, the use of advanced Jones model abnormal accruals as a measure of earnings management. Empirical results show that earnings management and analyst earnings forecast accuracy to the relationship between negative, indicating the high earnings management analyst in the company's higher forecast accuracy. The empirical results of this may be interpreted as corporate earnings tend to smooth the way of management;, therefore, reduce the earnings variability (risk) levels, thereby increasing the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts.
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Huang, Wei-Shang, and 黃煒翔. "Information Content of Earnings Forecasts Revision." Thesis, 1997. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/30565436494954561376.
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碩士國立中興大學
企業管理學系
85
This thesis applies Intervention Model(IVM) to analyze about information contents of earnings forecasting revisions. In the past, previous research on forecasts of earnings forecasting has applied Market Model. The shortcoming of this method is that it ignores the rectification of outliers. So in this thesis,we input dummy variables to calculate the abnormal returns in order to make correct conclusions.Besides,we apply Market Model to calculate Abnormal Returns(AR) and Cumulative Abnormal Returns( CAR). If it is significant, we can make conclusions that the revision of earnings forecasting is effective.In this studies,it is no excess abnormal returns on the individual stock. But if we apply AR and CAR model, we find that it is significant in negative announcement of earnings revision but it is not significant in positive announcement of earnings revision.
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Chen, Yi-Ling, and 陳怡玲. "The value relevance of earnings forecasts." Thesis, 2003. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/87048337816335650679.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
會計學研究所
91
Based on Ohlson (1995) valuation model, this study investigates whether the management forecast earnings is relevant to stock price and its explanatory power incremental to historical earnings, when explanatory power is defined in terms of the ability to explain cross-sectional stock prices. The data are collected from Taiwan Economic News Journal for the period from 1997~2001. The results are summarized as follows: 1.In the regression of the market value of equity, historical abnormal earnings, forecast abnormal earnings and equity book value based on Ohlson (1995) valuation. The empirical result is that the historical earnings provides no incremental information beyond management forecast. In contrast, management forecast earnings do add to the explanatory power provided by historical earnings. 2.Under random walk assumption, the regression of the market value of equity, forecast abnormal earnings, and the difference in historical and forecast earnings. The findings are that management forecast earnings are significantly valuation relevant but not incrementally informative regarding historical earnings.
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吳俊濱. "Management earnings forecasts and SOX302、SOX404." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/71014132401474870790.
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碩士國立政治大學
會計研究所
99
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relation among SOX302, SOX404 and the accuracy of management earnings forecasts. Using a sample of S&P listed companies during the period 2002-2009, I address the following issues: (1) whether companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecast accuracy, compared with those under SOX404; (2) in the SOX404 context, whether companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy, compared with those with account-specific material weaknesses. As predicted, my empirical results show that: (1) compared with those under SOX404, companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecasts accuracy; (2) compared with those that disclosed account-specific material weaknesses under SOX404, the companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy.
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邱逸婷. "Gender difference and management earnings forecasts." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/42019525200759424395.
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碩士國立政治大學
會計研究所
99
In this thesis, I explore the association between gender differences and the management earnings forecasts. Prior studies show that, in general, women are more risk adverse and act more ethically than man. Therefore, I examine whether the gender of management affects the bias and accuracy of management earnings forecasts. Consistent with my predictions, the results show that female CEOs release more conservative forecasts than their male CEOs counterparts. Moreover, I also find that female CEOs issue less accurate earnings forecasts compared to male CEOs. Overall, this study provides evidence that there are the relationship between gender difference and the bias of management earnings forecasts.
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蔡淳安. "Insider Trading and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/bzj3g4.
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碩士輔仁大學
會計學系碩士班
107
This study aims to examine the relation between insider trading and the Analysts' Earnings Forecasts precision. This study adopts Beneish and Vargus’s （2002）approach to measure abnormal net insider buying and abnormal net insider selling. The sample of this study consists of the listed firms in Taiwan during 2000-2018.The empirical results of this study show that firms with more abnormal net insider buying and firms with more abnormal net insider selling have greater analysts' earnings forecasts error and dispersion. This study performs several sensitivity tests, included using the last analysts' forecasted earnings to calculate analysts' earnings forecasts error and dispersion, and using directors' and supervisors' shareholdings to measure abnormal insider trading, and the insider's trading subsample tests, and measuring the analysts' earnings forecasts error with mean value instead of median value. The empirical results of these sensitivity tests are similar to the main empirical results, except that the firms with directors' and supervisors' abnormal net buying have greater, but not significant, analysts' earnings forecasts dispersion.
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Tang, Hua-chi, and 唐華祺. "Earnings Management, Management Forecasts and Analyst Forecasts: The Evidence from China." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/57456474943922100867.
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碩士國立臺灣師範大學
管理研究所
102
The objective of this paper is to investigate whether firms manipulate reported earnings to avoid the threshold for mandatory management forecasts. Financial analysts are specialists in interpreting information about firms. Thus, we examine whether analysts discount appropriately for earnings management when they issue earnings forecasts for the firms. We also examine how analysts’ coverage affects the extent of management earnings forecast bias. We collect management forecasts of earnings issued by Chinese listed firms from 2010 to 2012. We find that firms which try to avoid mandatory management forecasts tend to manipulate earnings. These firms that manage earnings upward have unusual low cash flows from operations and unusual high net non-operating income. The empirical results indicate that analysts can see through firms use discretionary accruals to manipulate earnings upward to avoid mandatory forecasts. However, we do not find that analysts see through the real transaction earnings management. Furthermore, our results find that bias of management forecasts reduces when the number of analyst following increases.
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Xu, Le. "Predictable errors in financial analysts' annual earnings forecasts and the evaluation of earnings forecast -based securities returns anomalies." 2003. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/dissertations/AAI3110570.
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This study addresses certain properties of the analysts' forecasts adjusted by predictable error patterns and re-examines the association between subsequent abnormal securities returns and two earnings forecast-based measures (Elgers, Lo, and Pfeiffer, 2001; Frankel and Lee, 1998). The adjusted analysts' forecasts are found to be more accurate than the unadjusted analysts' forecasts, especially for firms with prior poor performance. Furthermore, the study shows that the adjusted analysts' forecasts are improved proxies for market expectations of earnings, compared to the unadjusted analysts' forecasts. Elgers, Lo and Pfeiffer (2001) document a profitable hedge portfolio strategy based on the price-scaled analysts' forecasts. This study shows that the price-scaled adjusted analysts' forecasts (the more accurate forecasts) generate descriptively smaller amounts of hedge portfolio returns, though the decrease in hedge portfolio returns is not statistically significant. The lack of significant change is due to the minor impact of the adjustment on the composition of hedge portfolios. On the other hand, the directional decrease in hedge portfolio returns may suggest that analysts aim to forecast value-relevant earnings rather than actual earnings, especially for the early-in-the-year forecasts. Frankel and Lee (1998) show that price-scaled implicit firm-values are reliable predictors of subsequent securities returns. The implicit firm values are generated by using analysts' forecasts as proxies for market expectations in a manner consistent with Ohlson's (1995) residual income model. The results show that the price-scaled implicit firm values generate very similar amounts of hedge portfolio returns after analysts' forecasts are adjusted. It is also because the adjustment of analysts' forecasts in this study is too minor to change the composition of hedge portfolios.
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Chiang, Jen-Wei, and 蔣仁偉. "The Impact of Audit Committee on Management Earnings Forecasts and Analysts’ Forecasts." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/62k9z2.
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碩士國立臺中科技大學
會計資訊系會計與財稅碩士班
103
Because of the Securities and Exchange Act amended, a company issued stock shall establish either an audit committee or a supervisor, as well as voluntary financial forecast instead of mandatory financial forecast. The purpose of this study is to exam whether the audit committee affects management voluntary earnings forecasts willingness and accuracy of forecasts. We collect data from listed firms in the Taiwan Stock Exchange during 2007-2013 and find that firms with audit committee prefer announced management voluntary earnings forecasts. Their forecasts and analyst earnings forecasts are statistically significance more accurate than firms without audit committee. Furthermore, analysts’ forecasts exhibit higher accuracy with the voluntary issuance of management forecasts.
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Chang, Chun-Ming, and 張峻銘. "The Analyst Earnings Forecasts and Investors Holdings." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/71886855081255395736.
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碩士國立中正大學
會計所
94
The main purpose of the study is to investigate whether analyst earnings forecast will be influenced by the trading behaviors of insiders and various types of investors including QFIIs, mutual funds, and securities firms. This study is based on monthly analyst forecast consensus data and monthly insider and institutional stock holding provided by Taiwan Economic Journal. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows： 1、The analyst earnings forecast consensus are mostly over-optimistic, but will be revised downward as the earnings announcement date is approaching. 2、Overall speaking, analyst earnings forecasts are influenced by institutional investors and insiders. Such influence is most significant at the last month of the year. 3、As the insiders﹙managers﹚increase their holdings, analysts will react positively in their earnings forecasts. On the other hand, analysts react negatively when board member insiders and other major stake-holders increase the stakes. But such negative influences are not significant. 4、Among the various types of institutional traders, only securities firms holdings are positively related to analyst earnings forecasts. The positive effect is only significant at last month of the year.
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Shih, Tsern-Pey, and 施岑佩. "Earnings Predictability and Bias in Analysts'' Forecasts." Thesis, 1996. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/94383036574552281371.
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Wu, Jing-yi, and 吳靜怡. "Analyst’s Earnings Forecasts and Stock Price Reaction." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/58332232614744587830.
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碩士國立高雄第一科技大學
財務管理研究所
103
Analysts'' earnings forecast is one of the factors investors collect to make decision for buying or selling stocks. This paper explores whether the revisions of the earnings forecast from the Taiwan analysts affect stock prices. The paper finds share prices are affected by that analyst’s earnings forecast revisions. Furtherly, while the analysts divided into three groups, foreign brokerage, investment adviser and securities, the relation between of the returns and the revision of earnings forecasts of analysts from investment adviser or dealers is positive. However, there is the negative relation between the returns and the earnings forecast revisions of analysts from foreign brokerages.
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Yu-TingLee and 李裕婷. "Customer-Base Concentration and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/70999213896352803461.
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碩士國立成功大學
財務金融研究所碩士在職專班
104
Prior studies suggest that customer-base concentration firms are quite common in the capital market and the effects of customer-base concentration on firm performance exist two kinds of viewpoints. In this study, we use samples from 2001 to 2012 listed companies in the U.S. to investigate the relationship between customer-base concentration and analysts’ earnings forecast behaviors. Also, we use several analysts’ forecast attributes, such as analysts’ earnings forecasts accuracy, analysts following, and analysts’ forecast dispersion. The empirical results show that customer-base concentration doesn’t significantly affect analysts’ earnings forecasts accuracy; on the other hand, customer-base concentration firms have less analysts’ following. Besides, such firms with higher level of customer-base concentration, analysts tend to have greater magnitude of the forecast dispersion. We can infer that, due to the dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts on customer-base concentration firms, if the information of customer-base concentration couldn’t improve analysts’ earnings forecasts accuracy, the analysts’ willing to follow will decrease.
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CHEN, TZU-YU, and 陳子榆. "Key Audit Matters and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3682cw.
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碩士輔仁大學
會計學系碩士班
106
In recent years, the financial crisis has continued to occur, which has led to the low confidence of audit report users. Many auditing standards-setting organizations have begun to reform audit report. In January 2015, the International Auditing Standards Board issued the international auditing standard No. 700 “Forming opinions on financial statements and issuing reports”. In September of the same year, Taiwan Auditing Standards Board also issued Taiwan auditing standard No. 57 “Financial Statements Audit Report”. This standard requires the regulated firms to disclose key audit matters in new audit report. Using Taiwan listed companies disclosing key audit matters from 2016 to 2017 as the sample, this study aims to explore relationship between the extent of disclosing key audit matters of companies and the analyst's earnings forecast. The empirical results show that the more the item counts of key audit matters, the larger the analyst's earnings forecast error. This study conducts a number of sensitivity tests and gain similar results.