Academic literature on the topic 'Dry barley'

Grain filling determines the grain weight, a major component of grain yield in cereals. Grain filling in barley depends on current assimilation and culm reserves (mainly water-soluble carbohydrates). Nowadays barley is facing heat stress problem which is mostly responsible to reduce the yield of barley. A field experiment was conducted at the Field Lab, Department of Crop Botany, BangladeshAgriculturalUniversity, Mymensingh during November 2015 to March 2016 to study the grain filling patterns and the contributions of culm reserves to grain yield under heat stress. The experiment consisted of two factors—barley cultivars and heat stress. The heat stress was imposed by late sowing. The tillers were sampled once a week during grain filling period to determine the changes in dry weights of different parts, viz., leaves, culm with sheath, spikes, and grains; and to examine the contribution of culm reserves to grain yield. The results in the experiment revealed that the grain yield was reduced by 22-28% due to the stress. The grain yield varied from 52 to 150 g m−2 with the mean of 102 g m−2 under control while it varied from 37 to 116 g m−2 with the mean of 75 g m−2 under heat stress. Among the cultivars studied BARI Barley5, BARI Barley2 and BARI Barley1, seemed as high yielders while BARI Barley3, BARI Barley4, BARI Barley6 as the low yielders under heat stress treatment. The reduction in grain yield was attributable mainly to lighter grain weight due to the stress. Heat stress drastically reduced the grain filling duration by 45–50%. However, the stress increased the grain filling rate by 6–53%. The amount of reserves remobilized to grain varied among the cultivars ranging from 4.8 to 12.77 mg spike−1 in control and from 1.73 to 6.25 mg spike−1 in stressed plants. The stressed barley plants exhibited lower accumulation of reserves in culm but they showed almost its complete remobilization to the grain. The contribution of culm reserves to grain yield varied from 1.13 to 19.52%, and 1.09 to 2.11% in control and in stressed plants, respectively. In conclusion, culm reserve is the important attributes in grain yield in Bangladeshi barley cultivars but the contribution remains almost unaffected due the post-anthesis heat stress.J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 15(2): 174-181, December 2017

During growth, kernel of cereals can be provided with carbohydrate and nitrogen (N) from the translocation of pre-anthesis accumulated reserves stored either in the vegetative plant parts or from current assimilation during kernel development. This study was conducted to assess the effects of nitrogen level and cultivars on dry matter and N accumulation and mobilization during pre-anthesis and post-anthesis. Twenty two-rowed spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cultivars were grown on a non-calcareous chernozem soil in four growing seasons (1995–1998) atNovi Sad (45°20'N, 15°51'E,86 m a.s.l.) at two nitrogen levels. Dry matter accumulation before anthesis ranged from less than 50% in unfavorable to 90% in favorable growing conditions. Dry matter translocation occurred in favorable growing conditions only. Pre-anthesis accumulated N represented 57–92% and 54–129% of total N at maturity at the low and high N levels, respectively. Translocated N represented 41–85% and 37–153% of grain N at the low and high N level, respectively. N losses occurred in favorable growing conditions when anthesis N exceeded 150 kg/ha. N accumulation during grain filling was in negative correlation with dry matter and N accumulation before anthesis. The N harvest index was 0.57–0.63 and 0.71–0.74 in unfavorable and favorable growing conditions, respectively. Selection of genotypes with a higher ability of pre-anthesis reserve utilization or genotypes with longer leaf area duration after anthesis may be two possible solutions in spring barley breeding for Mediterranean growing conditions.

Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is often grown in sites with low rainfall and high temperature during grain filling. Because spike architecture is one of basic footprints of barley domestication, the importance of spikes in adaptation to different environments or abiotic stresses can be hypothesised. In order to compare different barley spike types in terms of kernel growth and yield components, we tested 15 two-row and 10 six-row winter genotypes in eight environments where terminal drought was simulated by defoliation at 7 days after heading (7 DAH). Control plants were grown intact. On average, two-row genotypes outyielded six-row genotypes by 17% under control conditions and 33% under simulated late drought. Observations of kernel dry weights from 7 DAH through to harvest maturity at 5-day intervals were regressed onto a measure of thermal time. After preliminary evaluation of four nonlinear (S-shaped) models for kernel dry-weight accumulation, the ordinary logistic model was deemed the most appropriate in most cases and was finally applied to all plant-growth curves. Four parameters were estimated from the logistic model. Whereas two earliness estimators (inflection point and thermal time needed to reach maximum kernel weight) were similar for the two barley types, maximum kernel weight (Ymax) and mean rate of kernel growth (RG) were higher (P<0.05) in two-row than in six-row barleys. Differences in Ymax and RG among six-row barley genotypes were greater between control and defoliation treatments than between years, whereas among two-row barley genotypes, differences between years were greater, suggesting better stability of six-row types and better drought tolerance of two-row types in the tested barley set.

Functional properties of food products with the addition of germinated grain raw materials have become the object of increased attention of scientists and specialists in the food industry. In addition to the nutritional ingredients, food products with the addition of grain raw materials contain functional ingredients that positively affect the human body that helps to adapt to the effects of the external environment. Functional products with the addition of germinated grain are considered not only as a source of plastic substances and energy but also as a nutritional complex that provides a healing effect. The usage of germinated grain in the food and processing industries is very limited due to its short shelf life and the characteristics of preparing malt for further processing. A relevant technological challenge is the selection of barley malt moisture regimes. The cycle of researches concerning hydrothermal processing of dry barley malt has been carried out. The purpose of determining the optimal technological regimes of hydrothermal processing of dry germinated grain is the prospects for its further use in various food technologies as a food additive or a component of the enrichment of products with biologically active substances. The work highlights the selection process and the main technological parameters of the process that can be used in the industrial processing of barley malt. As a research object, dry germinated grain (malt) produced by a special technology was used. In the course of research, an optimal hydro module was selected for humidifying barley malt, the temperature regime of hydrothermal processing of germinated grain was determined, the degree of swelling of malted grain was determined, the optimum time of wetting of raw materials for its further processing was determined. When analyzing the data obtained, it was concluded that the optimal hydro module for swelling barley malt is 1:4, the optimum temperature is +65С and the duration of hydrothermal processing is 48 hours. The regimes of hydrothermal processing of barley malt presented in the article will allow optimizing the technological process of malt processing.

This experiment investigated whether increased crude protein concentration in turnips fertilised with nitrogen would improve milk production. Dairy cows were offered a basal diet of silage, hay and 5 kg dry matter barley supplemented with 5 kg dry matter turnips fertilised with nitrogen (n = 12) or 5 kg dry matter control turnips (n = 12) over 14 days. The effect of providing a diet isonitrogenous with the nitrogen-fertilised turnip diet and with rumen degradable protein on milk production was also investigated by replacing 1 kg barley with 1 kg lupins; 12 cows were offered 4 kg (dry matter) barley, 1 kg lupins with 5 kg control turnips. The control cows (offered control turnips with barley) consumed 17.8 kg dry matter, 2.34 kg crude protein and 187 MJ metabolisable energy. In comparison with the control cows, cows offered nitrogen-fertilised turnips with barley had lower (P<0.05) daily dry matter and metabolisable energy intakes and higher (P<0.05) crude protein intake whereas cows offered control turnips with barley and lupins had similar daily dry matter intake and higher (P<0.05) intakes of metabolisable energy and crude protein. The cows offered nitrogen-fertilised turnips with barley produced similar yields of milk and milk constituents to those of the control cows (19.6 L milk with 855 g fat, 625 g protein and 951 g lactose daily), reflecting the lower intakes of dry matter and metabolisable energy by the cows offered nitrogen-fertilised turnips with barley compared with that of the control cows. Cows offered control turnips with barley and lupins had a greater (P<0.05) daily yield of milk fat and protein than did the other groups of cows; milk yield was increased by 0.5 L when 1 kg dry matter barley was replaced with 1 kg dry matter lupins. It is economical for farmers to feed turnips in conjunction with barley and lupins to overcome summer shortages of high-quality feeds.

The effects of in vitro extracting conditions on the viscosity of different barley cultivars were determined (exps. 1–3). Then, the relationship between three in vitro viscosity assays (method I, raw barley-HCl-KCl buffer; method II, autoclaved barley-H2O; and method III, raw barley-H2O) was compared with the performance of chicks fed barley-based diets supplemented with fungal enzyme (exp. 4). A significant three-way interaction (P < 0.0001) among fineness of grind, extraction method and barley cultivar showed that viscosity values for different barleys were not uniformly affected by the other two factors. Part of this differential response was eliminated by the use of finely ground barley (< 0.5-mm-mesh screen). When the three extracting methods were compared, method I gave higher readings than method II for high-viscosity barleys, and the reverse was true for low-viscosity barleys. The ranking of the barleys remained the same. Method III gave the lowest viscosity values, perhaps due to active endogenous β-glucanases in water extracts of the raw barley. When different barley cultivars were extracted by method I and subjected to different shear rates the viscosity differences were much more pronounced at the lower shear rates, particularly for high-viscosity barleys. Finally, the same seven barleys were compared in a feeding trial with chickens. The improvement in weight gain due to supplementation with a crude enzyme preparation from Trichoderma viride (Cellulase Tv) ranged from 2 to 41 % (P < 0.05). Similar improvements were obtained for feed consumption, feed-to-gain ratio and dry matter retention (P < 0.05). The highest simple correlation coefficients were between the viscosity of barleys that had been extracted by method I, measured at low shear rates, and relative weight gain (r = 0.97, week 1 plus week 2). The correlation coefficients using low shear rate data were slightly higher than those with high shear rate data. These results indicate that most pronounced differences among barleys were obtained with finely ground samples (<0.5 mm), extracted for one hour at 38 °C, using a low pH 1.5 buffer (method I) and assayed at low shear rates. Under these conditions the viscosity data reflected the antinutritive properties of barley, which in turn were reduced or abolished by adding a crude enzyme preparation to the diet. Key words: Viscosity, barley extracts, chicks, fungal enzyme

Two studies were undertaken to determine the feeding value of high-moisture barley (HMB) for growing swine. HMB containing approximately 25% moisture and dry barley (approximately 13% moisture) was harvested from the same 21.8-ha field. On a dry matter (DM) basis, the HMB yielded 19.6% more than the dry barley. In the first experiment, 56 crossbred gilts and 24 crossbred barrows of an average initial weight of 28 kg were allocated on the basis of initial weight and sex to diets based on either anaerobically stored HMB or dry barley. Pigs fed the HMB-based diet consumed significantly more feed (P < 0.05) on a DM basis, than did pigs fed the dry-barley-based diet. Average daily gain (ADG) and feed conversion efficiency (FCE) were not affected by diet (P > 0.05). In the second experiment, eight barrows (57.6 kg initial weight), fitted with ileal T-cannulas, were used in a replicated 4 × 4 Latin square to determine the apparent ileal digestibilities of nutrients in diets based on ground or rolled HMB (75% DM) and ground or rolled dry barley (87% DM). There were no differences (P > 0.05) among the four treatment groups in the apparent ileal digestibilities of the DM, CP, gross energy, starch or β-glucan components of the diets. The average ileal digestibility coefficient for β-glucan of the four diets was 79.6% (range: 76–82.2%), suggesting that this component is readily digested by growing pigs. The apparent ileal digestibilities for neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and phosphorus were lower (P < 0.05) for the ground dry barley diet than for the other diets. The apparent ileal digestibilities of lysine, methionine, isoleucine, alanine, valine, and aspartic acid were significantly higher (P < 0.05) for the ground HMB diet than for the dry barley diets. However, the digestibility coefficients for lysine, isoleucine, valine, and aspartic acid for the rolled HMB diet tended to be intermediate between the digestibility coefficients of these amino acids for the ground HMB diet and those for the dry barley diet. Thus, earlier harvest, in combination with anaerobic storage generally improves the digestibility of HMB as compared to dry barley. Key words: Growing swine, high moisture barley, β-glucan, digestibility, amino acid

Knowledge about the effect of genotypic variation and sowing date on dry matter accumulation, remobilization and partitioning in winter barley is important for crop management. Therefore, in field studies, six winter barley genotypes of various origin and maturity groups were studied across four sowing dates. In general, grain yield and dry matter content decreased with delayed sowing, after mid-October, and average grain yield in late October and November sowing was lower 14.2% and 16.9%, respectively, compared to the yield in the optimal sowing date. Among the tested genotypes, high grain yield and dry matter content was obtained from late and medium early barley genotypes. Delayed sowing dates, on average, reduced dry matter remobilization and contribution of vegetative dry matter to grain yield. In years characterized by high spring precipitation, late September and early October sowing of medium early and late barley genotypes enable increased accumulation and remobilization of dry matter and obtainment of high grain yield.

SUMMARYTrials were established at two sites in 1982 to compare six 2-course rotations, in which barley alternated with feed legumes (pure or mixed with barley), fallow or barley, in partial factorial combination with different N and P fertilizer regimes. This paper summarizes data from the second to the seventh cropping seasons.Barley yielded most after fallow and more after legumes than after barley; but, on the basis of total dry matter production over both courses, barley-legume rotations outyielded barley-fallow and barley-barley rotations. In terms of net nitrogen offtake, which may be taken as a rough measure of feed value, barley-legumes surpassed the other rotations by c. 100% at both sites, whether the comparison was made on values obtained from plots with or without added fertilizer. Of the legumes, Lathyrus sativus was slightly more productive than Vicia saliva, and this carried over into the rotational yield of both dry matter and nitrogen. Rotations involving pure legumes were slightly more productive than those involving legume/barley mixtures.Yields of all crops and rotations varied greatly from year to year depending on rainfall. Those of the barley-fallow rotation were much less variable than those of the barley-barley rotation at the wetter site (323±103 mm), with the barley-legume rotation intermediate; but variability was much greater at the drier site (250±79 mm), with much less difference between rotations. Nevertheless, fertilizer use and rotations including legumes gave a significant yield advantage under the driest conditions.

Abstract The study aimed at evaluating the distribution of mass in the straw of cereal species and also at assessing the straw yield and its losses resulting from the amount of the stubble left in the field. It was found empirically that the wheat culms are composed of five internodes, and in barley, triticale and oats of six. The highest straw mass per 1 cm was found in the second internode in both forms of wheat and winter triticale, whereas barley and oats gathered the highest weight in the first internode. In the southern part of Silesia species and forms of cereals differed in the straw yield, which can be arranged as follows, from the highest: winter wheat > spring wheat, winter triticale, winter barley, and oats > spring barley. Due to the specific distribution of dry matter in each of internodes of both wheat forms - winter and spring, they loose less stubble mass (22 and 24%, respectively), comparing to other cereals, especially spring barley, which loose 31% yield of straw in the stubble of 15 cm height.

The work presented here explores the effect of storage on chemical and other characteristics of dry, free of added chemicals and pest-free barley and canola grain. This was achieved by measuring the changes in a number of variables of grain stored at different temperatures under laboratory conditions and in commercial storage. The following measurements were carried out: Viability, moisture contents (mc), oil contents (oc), whole grain colour, spectrophotometry of grain extracts, hydroxy methyl furaldehyde (HMF), changes in storage atmospheres, organic sulphide levels, tocol concentrations (vitamin E), Iodine Value (IV), Thiocyanogen Value (TV), Peroxide Value (PV), p-Anisidine Value (p-AV) and Acid Value (AV). The mc of canola and barley were within the range considered safe for storage. Oil content of canola did not change significantly with storage. Viability of canola stored at 4 and 25 °C did not change noticeably, but higher storage temperatures resulted in seed death. Barley maintained high viabilities at low temperatures, but was more susceptible to high temperatures than canola. Colour changes of whole barley grain in storage were pronounced and temperature dependent. Colorimetry of whole barley grain showed potential as a tool for monitoring quality changes in storage. Absorption spectra of grain extracts reflected chemical and physiological changes in storage. HMF, an indicator of Maillard browning, accumulated in short to medium term storage at 45°C and in long term storage at 25 and 35°C. Measurement of HMF was considered useful for monitoring quality changes of stored cereal grain. In a study of storage atmospheres, changes in the concentrations of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, oxygen, carbon disulphide and carbonyl sulphide were shown to be useful indicators of quality loss of grain in storage. Gas concentrations usually depended on storage temperature and time and reflected the storage history of the commodity. They indicated loss of carbohydrates and lipids by respiration, oxidative damage and deterioration of sulphur containing amino acids and other compounds. Oil quality indicators were consistent with oxidative damage to canola lipids in storage. IV, TV, and p-AV of canola oil did not correlate with quality of commercial samples. However, a relationship between increases in PV and high storage temperatures in canola was shown and AV increased in storage dependent on storage temperature and time. In barley and canola, the concentration of anti-oxidant tocol species (vitamin E) decreased at 35 and 45°C storage dependent on storage time. The overall tocol content as well as vitamin E activity decreased with storage decreasing the nutritional value of the commodities and indicating oxidative damage to lipids. It was concluded that the storage of dry, pest-free whole barley and canola grain at moderate temperatures (25-45°C) resulted in chemical and other changes. The consequence of these changes was a measurable reduction in the freshness of grain relevant to the nutritional, food technological and commercial quality of grain.

Regionally focused plant breeding has the potential to increase the productivity and profitability of dry beans and barley in western Washington, strengthening the local food system. Achieving this will require an interdisciplinary approach rooted in an understanding of social context, unique end-use potential, contemporary genetic techniques, and crop production methods, combined with the art and science of classical field-based breeding. Approaches to plant breeding for local food systems are reviewed emphasizing the potential of engaging diverse stakeholders in the selection process. Barriers to local dry bean production include access to scale appropriate equipment and drying the crop, however dry beans are being successfully grown in the region. Twenty-four varieties of dry beans, which have been cultivated in western Washington for 20 to 130 years, were collected. Utilization of these local heirlooms will require respectful engagement with the seed savers responsible for their maintenance and selection. Information on dry bean variety selection, production methods, pest management, harvesting and drying is presented. Growers producing malting barley may receive a premium for their crop, but require traits unique to that market. Locally adapted varieties were identified with stable yield and grain quality, as well as resistance to leaf rust (Puccinia hordei ), powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis f. sp. hordei) and pre-harvest sprouting. Custom malting of these varieties has the potential to contribute to the emerging craft malt industry. Continued development of regionally adapted varieties is supported through a genome wide association study of a foundational panel of two-row facultative malting barley. Significant markers associated with heading date genes were identified as well as resistance to stripe rust (P. striformis f. sp. hordei), leaf rust (P. hordei), and scald ( Rhyncosporium commune). The concepts and methods presented here can be transferred to other regions and crops where producers and researchers wish to leverage variety selection and breeding to achieve a resilient and productive food system with its own distinctive place-based character.

Prinos zrna predstavlja jednu od najznačajnijih i najsloženijih osobina u oplemenjivanju biljaka. Poznavanje razvića, rastenja i akumulacije suve materije, omogućava pravilan odabir genotipova i odgovarajuće tehnologije gajenja. Cilj istraživanja je bio da se izvrši ispitivanje filohrona, akumulacije i translokacije suve materije nadzemnog dela biljaka, prinosa zrna i komponenti prinosa, različitih genotipova ozime pšenice i ječma sejanih u više rokova setve i vegetacionih sezona. Zatim da se utvrdi odgovarajuća jednačina koja opisuje akumulaciju suve materije i pojavu listova na glavnom stablu ječma i pšenice u funkciji sume temperatura tokom različitih rokova setve i vegetacionih sezona. U ogled je bilo uključeno po šest genotipova ozimog dvoredog ječma i ozime pšenice različitog porekla, pedigrea i agronomskih osobina, sejanih dve sezone u četiri roka setve. Sredinom cvetanja i u punoj zrelosti, uzeto je 10 slučajno odabranih biljaka. Na uzetim biljkama određena je masa pojedinačnih organa i komponente prinosa, kao i translokacija suve materije i doprinos asimilata akumuliranih pre cvetanja u masi zrna. Za utvrđivanje filohrona i ukupnog broja listova, dva puta nedeljno se očitavao broj listova na obeleženim biljkama tokom čitave sezone. Istovremeno se uzimao i uzorak od pet biljaka u cilju praćenja akumulacije suve materije. Sezona, rok setve i sorta su imali značajan uticaj na variranje ukupnog broja listova i filohrona kod ječma i pšenice. U proseku, sorte ječma su formirale više listova u odnosu na pšenicu, dok se pšenica karakteriše dužim filohronom. Kasnija setva dovela je do značajnog smanjenja broja listova i skraćenja filohrona kod obe vrste. U zavisnosti od sezone, roka setve, sorte i njihove interakcije menjala se i biomasa biljaka u cvetanju i prinos zrna. Translokacija suve materije je bila u pozitivnoj korelaciji sa biomasom biljaka u cvetanju. Akumulacija biomase nadzemnog dela biljaka tokom sezone, pratila je tipičan sigmoidni obrazac u svim kombinacijama rokova setve i sorti. Od tri posmatrane nelinearne jednačine, Logistička jednačina se pokazala najprikladnijom za opisivanje akumulacije suvematerije tokom sezone kod ječma i pšenice. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na značaj vegetativne mase biljaka u cvetanju, koja predstavlja bitan izvor asimilata za translokaciju u zrno. Ovi rezultati ukazuju da je tokom oplemenjivanja strnih žita, neophodno stvarati genotipove sa većim brojem listova koji bolje nakupljaju biomasu, odnosno genotipove koji će u optimalnom roku setve, imati usklađen fenološki razvoj sa agroekološkim uslovima u području Panonske nizije.
Grain yield is one of the most important and complex traits in plant breeding. Knowledge about crop development, growth and dry matter accumulation enables the appropriate selection of genotypes and field technology. The aims of this study were to investigate the variability of phyllochron, dry matter accumulation and translocation, grain yield and yield components of various wheat and barley genotypes, in relation to the sowing date and growing season. Furthermore, the goal was to find the equation that would appropriately describe dry matter accumulation and leaf appearance of wheat and barley. Six winter barley and six winter wheat genotypes, characterized by different origin, pedigree and agronomic traits, were sown in two growing seasons across four sowing dates. At the anthesis and physiological maturity, 10 randomly selected plants were manually cut at ground level. Dry mass of different plant organs, yield components, dry matter translocation and contribution of pre-heading dry matter to grain yield were determined. To determine the leaf number and phyllochron, measuring was done according to the Haun scale on three tagged plants per replication three times per week. Also, samples consisting of five plants were collected to determine dry matter accumulation. Growing season, sowing date and variety had significant influence on the final leaf number and phyllochron of wheat and barley. At average, barley varieties had more leaf compared to wheat, while wheat had higher phyllochron values. Late sowing reduced the final leaf number and phyllochron in both barley and wheat. Furthermore, growing season, sowing date, variety and sowing date × variety interaction had significant influence on crop biomass at anthesis and grain yield. Dry matter translocation was in positive correlation with dry matter content at anthesis. Dry matter accumulation across growing seasons had a typical sigmoid pattern in every combination of sowing date and variety. Among studied models, the logistic equation was the most appropriate for description of dry matter accumulation in wheat and barley. Results from this study highlight the importance of dry matter content at anthesis, which represent a significant source of assimilates for translocation into the grain. These results indicated that during the selection of small grain cereals, it is necessary to develop genotypes characterized by higher leaf number and increased biomass, i.e. genotypes that in optimal sowing dates, have an adjusted phenological development to the agro-ecological conditions of the Panonian plane.

Many plant species, including Barrel Cacti, have developed long-term evolutionary adaptable traits to survive in extreme climates. The most important trait of cacti in extreme hot dry climates is to reduce water evaporation and increase water storage. The exterior skin of a cactus plays an important role in preventing water evaporation through heat transmission. On the other hand, there have been many passive design strategies applied to the space planning and building design of architecture in hot dry climates. The goal of these passive design strategies is to regulate the penetration of heat into building spaces while creating a strong ventilation system to help bring cool air inside the building. In this paper, adaptations of the Barrel Cactus' exterior skin, along with architectural passive design strategies for hot dry climates (in this caseYazd, Iran) will be discussed and integrated with one another through the concept of Biomimicry. The goal is to design an exterior building skin that is attuned to the environmental conditions of a hot dry climate, based on the successful applicable behaviors demonstrated in the Barrel Cactus. Key architectural features such as natural ventilation and daylight will be informed by the evolutionary cacti adaptations and passive architectural strategies in the design of the building skin in order to increase the possibility of consistent comfort for users of an office building.

The need for energy and the associated economic benefits from the oil and gas deposits found mainly in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria necessitated the exploration and exploitation activities being carried out by the oil and gas Companies. However, these exploration and exploitation activities due to their unpredictable nature have a huge potential for environmental pollution as been experienced in the form of oil spills, gas flaring, irresponsible disposal of waste and several other activities that have resulted in the environmental degradation of the Niger Delta region. In the light of these, the Federal Government of Nigeria having experienced the consequences of pollution of the environment during the Koko Toxic Waste Dump incident in the then Bendel State in 1987 established a regulatory body tasked with the responsibility of harmonizing the economic interest from the oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities with the sustainability of the natural environment by developing well structured and articulated policies aimed at guiding the operations of the oil and gas operators, track their compliance and administer appropriate punitive measures for non compliance. However, this research work which is aimed at evaluating the impact of the environmental protection policies in upstream oil and gas activities in the Niger Delta region, involved the use of questionnaires and interviews. These questionnaires were completed by the management and staff of three major oil and gas companies operating within the area, the Department of Petroleum Resources and members of the Host communities. The interview was carried out to provide relevant feedback on their assessment of the impact made by the environmental protection policies on the upstream oil and gas activities in their operational areas/host communities. The study however concluded that “Although there is a regulatory body tasked with the responsibility to develop, implement and track compliance of the environmental protection policies in the upstream oil industry, the body is ineffective and as such the impact of the environmental protection policies is inadequate. Appropriate informed recommendations on the improvement strategies to the identified gaps that resulted in the unfavorable conditions were also provided.
Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011

Les ciliopathies rétiniennes sont un groupe de maladies rares causés par des mutations de gènes ciliaires. Les défauts des gènes ciliaires peuvent causer des défauts de trafic de protéines et induit l'apoptose des cellules photoréceptrices causés par le stress du réticulum endoplasmique (RE). On a étudié ciliopathies rétiniennes par modèle mourin, amaurose congénitale de Leber, rétinopathie pigmentaire liée à l’X, syndrome de Bardet-Biedl, syndrome d’Alström. Les souris Bbs1-/- , Bbs10-/- et CEP290-/- ont monté une diminution de la fonction rétinienne et sont causée par ER stress. Les souris Rd9/y et Alms1foz/foz présentent une apparition tardive et avec un faible taux de dégénérescence rétinienne et ils pourrait être causée par d'autres mécanismes. Le traitement GV-Ret basé sur le stress du RE pourrait sauver à la fois la fonction de et la morphologie de la rétine dans souris BBS
Retinal ciliopathies are a group of rare diseases caused by mutations of ciliary genes. Defects in ciliary genes can cause defects in proteins traffics and induces apoptosis of photoreceptor cells caused by stress of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) .We studied retinal ciliopathies by mice models, Leber congenital amaurosis, Xlinked retinitis pigmentosa, Bardet-Biedl syndrome and Alström Syndrome. The Bbs1-/-, Bbs10-/- and CEP290-/- mice exhibited a decrease in retinal function caused by ER stress. Rd9/y and Alms1foz/foz mice showed a late onset and a low rate of retinal degeneration and they could be caused by other mechanisms. The GV-Ret treatment based on ER stress could save both the function and morphology of the retina in BBS mice

The aim of this qualitative interpretive research was to explore the experiences of HIV counsellors and how these experiences influence the counsellors' psychological wellbeing. The complexities of the context within which HIV pre and post test counselling occurs form the day-to-day real ity of barely trained volunteer counsellors whose task it is to counsel, inform and educate people at grass roots concerning HIV. The guiding question of the current research pertained to the experience of HIV counselors regarding the influence of their work on their own well-being. A case study design was used. In depth interviews were conducted with nine Sotho speaking HIV counselors working in primary healthcare clinics in the Sedibeng region of Gauteng. Additional data was collected through observation. Data was initially coded, using axial coding; this was followed by thematic analysis. The focus was .on the psychological well-being of the volunteer HIV counsellors. The data indicated that the participants were not overwhelmed by the many stressors of their challenging occupations. They succeeded in developing their own ways of stress relief especially through practising their spiritual beliefs and other means like participating in community activities and meaningful relationships of significant other. They experienced personal growth and empowerment in general, but especially in the field of health and sexuality. The female participants were increasingly able to negotiate safer sex. Participants' lives were enriched through amongst others the regard they received from their communities, and being in a position to give information and advice that they gained from the training and exposure to information. The participants experienced feelings of self-worth in that they were able to contribute to their communities and thereby adding meaning to their own existence. It became clear that their character strengths such as wisdom, courage, humanity, justice and transcendence enabled them to function and grow in their difficult situation. The research highlighted that the inner strengths and virtues of the volunteer counsellors enable them to persist, in challenging work conditions and socio-economic circumstances. Difficulties facing volunteer HIV counsellors that became clear are the lack of support and recognition they have to contend with. It is therefore recommended that more attention should be given by the relevant stakeholders to strengthen the support and to make more resources available to them.
Thesis (M.A. (Psychology))--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2010.

Abstract This chapter discusses the organisational underpinning of the asylums during the war. The Board of Control oversaw the asylums but could neither enforce best practice nor prevent low standards. Local tiers of management ran the asylums day-to-day. Government, professionals and public influenced asylum management, but patients’ voices were barely audible or credible. The system prioritised obeying rules and stifled innovation. Twenty-four asylums (23,000 beds), one quarter of the total, were vacated for military purposes. Widespread negativity about mental disorders and their treatment discouraged expenditure on anything other than the cheapest custodial regimes. People who attempted to make improvements faced many hurdles.

Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) belongs to small grain cereals that cover more than 78% of the daily calorie consumption of humans. With a prediction of 9.7 billion humans in 2050 (FAO stats) and climatic changes, the question of increasing small grain cereal’s production has become an agricultural challenge. Drought exerts a strong environmental pressure, causing large yield losses worldwide. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms responsible for grain development from the fertilization to the mature dry grain is essential to understand how drought can affect this developmental program. In this book chapter, we present the physiological, molecular and hormonal regulation of barley grain development. In a second part, we describe the consequences of drought at different stage of barley development, with a special focus on the reproductive phase. Finally, in the last part, we present the different methods used to decipher new genetic information related to drought-tolerance. All this knowledge contributes to understanding the tolerance mechanisms of barley and to developing breeding strategies aiming to bring about new varieties with sustained yield in harsh conditions.

I am grateful to Dr. Barkley not only for his astute and insightful commentary but also to have the opportunity to respond. Dr. Barkley is a veritable ADHD encyclopedia—there is no one, in my estimation, who knows the ADHD literature better than Dr. Barkley. It is a great honor to have someone so knowledgeable about ADHD comment on my clinical work....

In accordance with the resolution to which the clerical commission had come on the first day of their sitting, Dr Tempest wrote the following letter to Mr Crawley:— ‘Rectory, Silverbridge, April 9, 186—, ‘Dear sir, ‘I have been given to understand that you...

The influence of processing the serpentinite quarry from the Caucasian mountains at the foot of the Mount Elbrus crushed waste on soil agrochemical properties, phytotoxicity of spring barley, influence on barley plant biomass and its chemical composition were investigated. Ground and granular serpentinite had a different effect on soil and plants. Application of serpentinite fertilizers significantly increased the content of calcium, iron, 227.95-376.75 and 5.05-9.62 mg kg-1, total and plant-derived magnesium 0.34-0.52 and 1.19-2.16 mg kg-1, lead and nickel, while the amount of copper dropped substantially; the soil was becoming more alkaline. Application of ground serpentinite lead to alkalizing of the soil much more compared to the granular, with a significant increase in plant-derived magnesium. The influence of serpentinite increased the yield of spring barley plants in green and dry mass by 0.049-0.256 and 0.011-0.046 g or 0.65-3.41 and 1.19-2.59% out of the growing vessel, and dry matter increased by 0.12-0.26 % units, the yield of spring barley green and dry mass under the influence of ground serpentinite was higher than of granular serpentinite fertilizer, and the dry matter was found to be significantly higher than that of unfertilized spring barley plants. Ground and granular serpentinite was not phytotoxic to spring barley. An application of ground serpentinite increased an amount of calcium, potassium and magnesium in the barley dry matter compared to the granular serpentinite. Ground and granular serpentinite reduced the amount of trace elements copper and manganese in the dry mass of the plant, and the amount of zinc decreased only after fertilization with granular serpentinite. An application of serpentinite significantly decreased content of lead, chrome and cadmium while nickel content significantly increased in the dry matter of barley plants.

A comparative study of the activity of amylolytic enzymes of six varieties of spring barley grown in the Educational and experimental farm of the Azov-black sea engineering Institute in two different hydrothermal conditions of the year (moderate arid and arid). It was proposed to compare the activity of these enzymes in four microphenophases: dry grain, pecking, fork and sprout for a comparative mass evaluation of all varieties. Quantitative differences in micropenises, by grade and year of reproduction.

One of the modern techniques of improving microbial preparations efficiency is a combination of several microorganisms with different beneficial properties in one inoculant. Taking into account the role of nitrogen and potassium nutrition and their synergism, it is essential to develop preparations of N2-fixing and K-mobilizing rhizobacteria, especially Azospirillum sp. and Bacillus sp. Effective biological control of root infections is of great importance in order to prevent crop yield losses. Among soil antagonistic fungi, Trichoderma sp. is the most promising one. Microbial inoculant includes three components: Azospirillum brasilеnse 2(b)3 + Bacillus circulans K-81 + Trichoderma longibrachiatum L-7 (1:1:1). Combined application of rhizobacteria A. brasilense + B. сirculans induced significant hormonal effect. Roots dry mass increased by 28%, roots length per plant – by 25%, stem dry mass – by 33%. In the field experiment, the treatment of barley by microbial inoculant provided the reduction of root rot incidence by 52.0–58.0%, disease development (waxy ripeness) – by 2.6–2.9 times, biological efficiency was 66.3–69.5%. Treatment of winter rye resulted in the reduction of disease incidence by 42.4–45.0%, disease development (milky ripeness) – by 2.0–2.6 times, biological efficiency – 50.2–61.2% according to soil-erosion catena. Beneficial influence of inoculation on plant development and nutrition, as well as effective biological control of plant diseases, provided significant crop responses: for winter rye – 3.8-4.5 c ha-1 or 7.0% - 9.8%, for spring barley – 5,2 – 4.9 c ha-1 or 9.3% – 9.2% according to soil-erosion catena. Microbial inoculant exhibits the properties of plant growth promoter, biological fertilizer, and biological fungicide.

Structural properties of packed-beds of non-spherical biological materials were investigated. The particles tested were oats, lentil, barley and soy, with sphericity ranging from 0.4 to 0.8. Porous alumina particles with sphericity of 0.98 were also included. The particles dimensions and sphericity were measured under moisture content ranging from the equilibrium up to 24% (dry basis). Mean voidage, bulk density, permeability and tortuosity of the packed-beds were obtained in the whole moisture range. The data were used as input into a correlation to predict Sherwood numbers under constant air velocity and the results were compared to evaluate the influence of packing characteristics on convective mass transfer. Keywords: Sphericity; Permeability, Tortuosity, Fixed-Bed Dryers.

Dry tree risers on floating systems are presently supported either by TLPs or SPARs, both of which have limited payload capacity and no storage. A spread-moored barge having dry trees, storage and integrated drilling facilities has been developed. Model tests were performed for the riser tensioning system used on such a barge for offshore West Africa conditions. The risers are attached to a rectangular platform in a moon pool of the barge. This platform is supported by means of an articulated Rocker Arm System (RAS) located on the vessel main deck. The RAS has built-in counter weights hinged on pedestals fixed to the barge deck. In this arrangement gravity is used to tension the risers and when the barge heaves, the counterweights in the rocker arm system essentially decouple the barge vertical motion from the riser platform. This system provides a heave-restrained platform for dry trees with minimal dynamic loading of the risers. The model tests confirmed the feasibility of the new design. The paper describes the basic components of the gravity tensioning system. The model test set up and results from the model test are shown. Comparison of model test results with a fully coupled analytic model consisting of the barge and articulated tensioning system is also presented.

Abstract Gas compressor customers desire to operate gas compressors at higher discharge temperatures. In barrel-style centrifugal compressors, dry gas seals are used to limit the leakage along the shaft from the process fluid to atmosphere. The temperature limit of dynamic O-ring seals in the dry gas seal cartridge is one of the primary limiters to operating gas compressors at higher discharge temperatures. While the present discharge temperature limit is conservative compared to the seal limits, without a detailed understanding of the thermal distribution around the discharge-side end cap, operation at compressor discharge temperatures that exceed seal limits has too much risk. Thus, this paper describes the approach taken to characterize the temperatures around the discharge end dry gas seal of a commercial C335EL centrifugal compressor. A phased test matrix with increasing discharge temperatures was conducted so that the temperature distribution throughout the end cap could be assessed. The full-scale, highly-instrumented compressor was operated at discharge pressures and temperatures ranging from 4.7 to 9.4 MPa (680 to 1370 psi) and 113 to 218 degree Celsius (235 to 425 degrees Fahrenheit), respectively. The experimental test set-up and results are presented herein. Results include demonstration of successful compressor operation at discharge temperatures greater than seal limits as well as the end cap temperature sensitivity to lube oil supply and dry gas supply temperatures.

Ships and most offshore structures are commonly launched into water from dry docks. But, sometimes due to practical and economical restrictions, launching of some offshore structures takes place at floating launching platforms, usually barges. The latter type of launching is quite “usual” for jacket rigs. To assess the success of the launch operation usually numerical simulations are enough and model tests are usually not required. However, more recently, as part of the construction project of the new Brazilian jack-up oil platforms, an innovative launching operation was required: launching a jack-up using a jacket launching barge. The marked differences between the two types of structures involve hydrodynamic and structural complexities. From the hydrodynamical point of view, due to its greater volume compared to jackets, the jack-up may be subjected to greater loads as enters in water during launching, and then suffers great motions that may affect the barge motions and these, affect back, the jack-up motions. From the structural point of view, the heavier jack-up structure may cause greater stresses on the barge deck and rocker arms that should be properly addressed in order to determine the necessity for reinforcements in the jack-up and/or the barge. To assess the feasibility of this innovative launching operation, model tests were required to measure the motions of the barge and the jack-up and to evaluate the loads on the rocker arms. The present paper describes the experimental approach developed for simulating this unique launching operation. The calibration procedures are outlined and the main results of the systematic set of tests carried out are presented. Furthermore, the influence of some launching parameters such as friction coefficient, position of the center of gravity of the jack-up and initial launching angle are discussed.

T-shaped launching barge HYSY229 is applied to transport the LW3-1 jacket from Qingdao to South China Sea, which is the largest one in Asia up to now. Two tugs are used for the dry-towing. Because the shape of this barge hull is a little special, it is interesting to investigate the motion responses during the transportation. Meanwhile, real-time motion monitoring is very necessary and important for the owner from the view point of the safety of the dry-towing process. Signals of pitch, roll and accelerations of six degree motions of the barge are monitored during the transportation. The measurements lasted 29 days starting from 27th July to 25th August in 2012. The maximum peak-peak value recorded for roll and pitch motions is 1.64 and 2.38 degrees respectively, which is smaller than the threshold of design value. Moses code is adopted to predict the 1/3 roll and pitch motions of the barge. Results of numerical simulation and motion monitoring are compared in short term sea state using the environmental parameters observed. Fair well agreements are achieved.

The Mississippi Valley Division (MVD) has maintained the Mississippi River banks for over 80 years. The Mat Sinking Unit (MSU), built in 1946, was considered state-of-the-art at the time. This system is still in operation today and has placed over 1,000 miles of Articulated Concrete Mats along the Mississippi River from Head of Passes, LA, to Cairo, IL. A new MSU has been designed and is expected to be fully mission capable and operational by the 2023 season, which is expected to increase the productivity from 2,000 squares/day up to 8,000 squares/day with double shifts and optimal conditions. This MSU supply study identifies and optimizes the supply chain logistics for increased production rates from the mat fields to the MSU. The production rates investigated for this effort are 2,000 squares/day, 4,000 squares/day, and 6,000 squares/day. RiskyProject® software, which utilizes a Monte Carlo method to determine a range of durations, manpower, and supplies based on logical sequencing is used for this study. The study identifies several potential supply and demand issues with the increased daily production rates. Distance to casting fields, number of barges, and square availability are the major issues to supply increased placement rates identified by this study.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.