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1
Reid, J. A. Keith. The effects of age-dependent dose conversion factors from ICRP-72 on biosphere model dose predictions. Pinawa, Man: AECL, Whiteshell Laboratories, Environmental Science Branch, 1997.
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2
Seltzer, Stephen M. Technical progress report on predictions of dose from electrons in space ... [Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1992.
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3
Sparrow, Paul R. Does national culture really matter?: Predicting HRM preferences of Taiwanese employers. Sheffield: Sheffield University Management School, 1997.
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4
Kay, Helen. Does the validity of the selection system depend more on the criteria than the predictor? Manchester: UMIST, 1995.
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5
Ward, Peter L. The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989: A brief geologic view of what caused the Loma Prieta earthquake and implications for future California earthquakes: what happened ... what is expected ... what can be done. [Reston, Va.]: U.S. Geological Survey, 1990.
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6
Barnoski, Robert P. Sex offender sentencing in Washington State: Does the prison treatment program reduce recidivism? Olympia, WA: Washington State Institute for Public Policy, 2006.
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7
Harris, Shelley Anne. The development and validation of a pesticide dose prediction model. 1999.
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8
Andrzej, Wojcik, and Colin J. Martin. Biological effects of ionizing radiation. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199655212.003.0003.
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Biological effects of radiation have been interpreted based on the assumption that DNA is the primary target, but recent research has shown that non-targeted mechanisms may affect cells that are not directly exposed. The most important effect in humans from low doses of radiation is the induction of cancer, but risks of other effects such as cataract and cardiac or circulatory disease are becoming apparent. Epidemiological studies of Japanese survivors of atomic bombs demonstrate a clear linear relationship between solid cancer incidence and organ dose. This is supported by other epidemiological data. This has become the gold standard for prediction of malignancy based on a linear no-threshold ‘LNT’ extrapolation, which links risk directly to radiation dose. However, the risk calculations involve many assumptions and approximations. They are designed to provide guidance on which a workable protection framework can be based. It is important that practitioners are aware of their limitations.
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Trainor, Laurel J., and Robert J. Zatorre. The neurobiological basis of musical expectations. Edited by Susan Hallam, Ian Cross, and Michael Thaut. Oxford University Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199298457.013.0016.
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This article explores how the auditory system processes incoming information and generates perceptual representations that allow it to make predictions about future sound events from past context, and how music appears to make use of this general processing mechanism. It focuses on expectation formation in auditory cortex because this is where the most research has been done, but there is also evidence for prediction mechanisms at subcortical levels and at levels beyond sensory areas. The article presents a framework for thinking about the neurological basis of expectation and prediction in musical processing using selected examples.
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Anjum, Rani Lill, and Stephen Mumford. Does Science Need Laws of Nature? Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198733669.003.0018.
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There is a view that as well as causation, science invokes general laws of nature. In one account, the universe is law-governed, but it is not clear whether this is to be understood literally or not. The generality of laws is useful in prediction and explanation. Laws provide also systematicity and simplicity. But it is questionable what the real being of laws is. Their being might reduce to singular powers or tendencies of individual things. While laws could be used in prediction and explanation, it is not clear that laws are indispensable for this purpose. Singular powers might be able to play the same role: or play it better.
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Baker, Victor R. Interdisciplinarity and the Earth Sciences. Edited by Robert Frodeman. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198733522.013.8.
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The inherent interdisciplinary of the Earth sciences derives from combining aspects of other disciplines when studying the Earth. Though most commonly viewed as providing science-as-knowledge, the Earth sciences can yield greater societal benefit through their nature-directed transdisciplinarity. As an example, paleoflood hydrology involves a relating to the complexities of natural world that overcomes limitations imposed when simplifying reality in order to make predictions. Paleoflood hydrology discovers the natural recordings of ancient (but very real) cataclysmic processes that have the documented ability to cause harm. The commonsense recognition that what has actually happened can indeed happen again provides much more incentive to generate engaged and wise public action than does an abstract prediction of the so-called hundred-year flood. This kind of science differs from that of its constituent disciplines, and it has great potential for making progress on many issues of current societal concern through public education, communication, and guided policy.
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Boyden, Michael. Predicting the Past. Leuven University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.11116/9789461664310.
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Drawing from the social theories of Niklas Luhmann and Mary Douglas, Predicting the Past advocates a reflexive understanding of the paradoxical institutional dynamic of American literary history as a professional discipline and field of study. Contrary to most disciplinary accounts, Michael Boyden resists the utopian impulse to offer supposedly definitive solutions for the legitimation crises besetting American literature studies by “going beyond” its inherited racist, classist, and sexist underpinnings. Approaching the existence of the American literary tradition as a typically modern problem generating diverse but functionally equivalent solutions, Boyden argues how its peculiarity does not, as is often supposed, reside in its restrictive exclusivity but rather in its massive inclusivity which drives it to constantly revert to a self-negating “beyond” perspective. Predicting the Past covers a broad range of both well-known and lesser known literary histories and reference works, from Rufus Griswold’s 1847 Prose Writers of America to Sacvan Bercovitch’s monumental Cambridge History of American Literature. Throughout, Boyden focuses on particular themes and topics illustrating the selfinduced complexity of American literary history such as the early “Anglocentric” roots theories of American literature; the debate on contemporary authors in the age of naturalism; the plurilingual ethnocentrism of the pioneer Americanists of the mid-twentieth century; and the genealogical misrepresentation of founding figures such as Jonathan Edwards, Emily Dickinson, and Robert Lowell.
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Siracusa, Joseph M. 7. Reflections on the Atomic Age. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/actrade/9780198727231.003.0007.
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Does the spread of nuclear weapons make the world safer or more dangerous? ‘Reflections on the Atomic Age’ considers this debate's relevance now and in the future. The clarity of the Cold War world has given way to the ambiguities and uncertainties of a world where global security is threatened by regime collapse, nuclear terrorism, new nuclear weapons states, regional conflict, and pre-existing nuclear arsenals. The prediction of mass destruction has so far proved false, but is that because of effective efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, or is it just luck?
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Krupenye, Christopher, Evan L. MacLean, and Brian Hare. Does the bonobo have a (chimpanzee-like) theory of mind? Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198728511.003.0006.
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Theory of mind—the ability to reason about the thoughts and emotions of others—is central to what makes us human. Chimpanzees too appear to understand some psychological states. While less is known about bonobos, several lines of evidence suggest that the social-cognitive abilities of the two sister taxa may differ in key respects. This chapter outlines a framework to guide future research on bonobo social cognition based on the predictions of two potentially complementary hypotheses. The self-domestication hypothesis suggests that selection against aggression and for prosociality in bonobos may have impacted the ontogeny of their social-cognitive skills relative to chimpanzees. The empathizing–systemizing hypothesis links degree of prenatal brain masculinization, a potential result of self-domestication, to adult cognition. Specifically, relative feminization may yield more flexible theory of mind skills in bonobos than chimpanzees. Finally, directions for future study, including development of new paradigms that maximize ecological validity for bonobos, are discussed. La théorie de l’esprit—le pouvoir de raisonner les pensées et émotions des autres—est centrale à notre nature humaine. Il parait que les chimpanzés peuvent comprendre quelques états psychologiques. Tandis que nous savons moins des bonobos, plusieurs témoignages suggèrent que les capacités socio-cognitives des deux taxons soeur peuvent différer dans des aspects clefs. Nous traçons un cadre pour guider les prochaines recherches sur la cognition sociale des bonobos, basé sur les prédictions de deux hypothèses potentiellement complémentaires. L’hypothèse d’auto-domestication suggère que l’anti-agression et la prosocialité des bonobos a influé leur ontogenèse et leur capacités socio-cognitives relativement aux chimpanzés. L’hypothèse d’empathie systématique (Empathizing–Systemizing) forme un lien entre le degré de masculinisation prénatale du cerveau, le résultat potentiel d’auto-domestication, et la cognition adulte. Spécifiquement, la féminisation relative génère des théories de l’esprit plus flexibles chez les bonobos que chez les chimpanzés. Enfin, nous discutons le directions pour les prochaines études, inclut le développement de nouveaux paradigmes qui maximisent la validité écologique des bonobos.
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Kwon, Rachel J. Size as a Predictor of Malignancy of Adrenal Cortical Carcinoma. Edited by Randall Owen. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199384075.003.0042.
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This chapter provides a summary of a landmark study in endocrine surgery. Does size correlate with malignancy in adrenal cortical carcinoma? Starting with that question, it describes the basics of the study, including year study began, year study was published, study location, who was studied, who was excluded, how many patients, study design, study intervention, follow-up, endpoints, results, and criticism and limitations. The chapter briefly reviews other relevant studies and information, gives a summary and discusses implications, and concludes with a relevant clinical case involving postoperative treatment of a patient with adrenocortical carcinoma who has a large adrenal incidentaloma.
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Morse, Stephen J. Genetics and Criminal Justice. Edited by Turhan Canli. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199753888.013.008.
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This essay addresses the relevance of genetic data, including gene-by-environment interactions, to criminal responsibility and sentencing. After describing the criminal law’s implicit psychology and criteria for responsibility, it considers the present and future contributions genetics may make. It suggests that, at present, genetics should not play a large role in the adjudication of individual cases unless it translates directly into the law’s folk psychological criteria for responsibility, which it seldom does. Future discoveries may increase the usefulness of genetics to rational adjudication, however. The role of genetics at sentencing may be somewhat more promising, especially concerning the prediction of future behavior.
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Massimini, Marcello, and Giulio Tononi. Mysteries in the Cranium. Translated by Frances Anderson. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198728443.003.0004.
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This chapter exposes a series of fundamental paradoxes about the relationships between consciousness and the brain—why does the cortex support consciousness, but not the cerebellum, which has four times more neurons? Why does consciousness vanish during deep sleep, even though the neurons remain active? How can the vivid experience of a dream be generated without interactions with the environment? These facts are in front of our eyes, they are tangible both clinically and experimentally, and prompt an interesting consideration. Maybe, what we need at this stage is not another experiment, but rather a principle; a starting point to combine the available, before we can formulate novel predictions.
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Moreno, Rui. Organ failure scoring. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199600830.003.0030.
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The general outcome prediction models were not, by design, developed to track individual patients. They provided an indication of death risks for groups of ICU patients. Hence, investigators created organ failure scores. Instruments, such as Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score, or Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score are designed to evaluate separately the six most important organ systems in critically-ill patients sequentially, taken on a daily basis. Easy to perform, designed to be done at bedside, they do not forecast ICU or hospital mortality (apart from the SOFA score), but are very useful in describing the patient and his response to therapy.
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Wikle, Christopher K. Spatial Statistics. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.710.
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The climate system consists of interactions between physical, biological, chemical, and human processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Characterizing the behavior of components of this system is crucial for scientists and decision makers. There is substantial uncertainty associated with observations of this system as well as our understanding of various system components and their interaction. Thus, inference and prediction in climate science should accommodate uncertainty in order to facilitate the decision-making process. Statistical science is designed to provide the tools to perform inference and prediction in the presence of uncertainty. In particular, the field of spatial statistics considers inference and prediction for uncertain processes that exhibit dependence in space and/or time. Traditionally, this is done descriptively through the characterization of the first two moments of the process, one expressing the mean structure and one accounting for dependence through covariability.Historically, there are three primary areas of methodological development in spatial statistics: geostatistics, which considers processes that vary continuously over space; areal or lattice processes, which considers processes that are defined on a countable discrete domain (e.g., political units); and, spatial point patterns (or point processes), which consider the locations of events in space to be a random process. All of these methods have been used in the climate sciences, but the most prominent has been the geostatistical methodology. This methodology was simultaneously discovered in geology and in meteorology and provides a way to do optimal prediction (interpolation) in space and can facilitate parameter inference for spatial data. These methods rely strongly on Gaussian process theory, which is increasingly of interest in machine learning. These methods are common in the spatial statistics literature, but much development is still being done in the area to accommodate more complex processes and “big data” applications. Newer approaches are based on restricting models to neighbor-based representations or reformulating the random spatial process in terms of a basis expansion. There are many computational and flexibility advantages to these approaches, depending on the specific implementation. Complexity is also increasingly being accommodated through the use of the hierarchical modeling paradigm, which provides a probabilistically consistent way to decompose the data, process, and parameters corresponding to the spatial or spatio-temporal process.Perhaps the biggest challenge in modern applications of spatial and spatio-temporal statistics is to develop methods that are flexible yet can account for the complex dependencies between and across processes, account for uncertainty in all aspects of the problem, and still be computationally tractable. These are daunting challenges, yet it is a very active area of research, and new solutions are constantly being developed. New methods are also being rapidly developed in the machine learning community, and these methods are increasingly more applicable to dependent processes. The interaction and cross-fertilization between the machine learning and spatial statistics community is growing, which will likely lead to a new generation of spatial statistical methods that are applicable to climate science.
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Ray, Sumantra (Shumone), Sue Fitzpatrick, Rajna Golubic, Susan Fisher, and Sarah Gibbings, eds. Research: why and how? Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199608478.003.0001.
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This chapter sets the scene of the book and provides a rationale for why research should be done. It begins with a definition of research and continues with a brief historical overview of medical research. The pivotal role of research in everyday medical practice is explained. The key databases containing published peer-reviewed articles related to clinical medicine and healthcare are detailed. The three major goals of research (description, explanation and prediction) are outlined. This chapter further focuses on the principles of the scientific method, its characteristics and main steps. Several classifications of the types of research are also presented. Bradford-Hill's proposed criteria for causality are also outlined. The hierarchy of research evidence and the corresponding levels of recommendations are also presented.
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Divers, John. De Re Modality in the Late Twentieth Century. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198786436.003.0010.
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Quine’s (in)famous sceptical critique of de re modality is expounded in the pair of 1953 classic papers ‘Reference and Modality’ and ‘Three Grades of Modal Involvement’. Here, I position the salient, and non-sceptical, treatments of de re modality in the later part of the twentieth century—those due to Kripke, Lewis, and Fine—in relation to that prior sceptical critique. My theses are: (a) that that Kripke, Lewis, and Fine all undertake non-sceptical defences of de re modal predication that conform to the Smullyan language-independence strategy; and (b) none does so in a way that falsifies Quine’s prediction of the commitments involved. I emphasize the insights on which Quine’s scepticism was based and commend these as sound and enduring.
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Rouse, William B. Computing Possible Futures. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198846420.001.0001.
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This book discusses the use of models and interactive visualizations to explore designs of systems and policies in determining whether such designs would be effective. Executives and senior managers are very interested in what “data analytics” can do for them and, quite recently, what the prospects are for artificial intelligence and machine learning. They want to understand and then invest wisely. They are reasonably skeptical, having experienced overselling and under-delivery. They ask about reasonable and realistic expectations. Their concern is with the futurity of decisions they are currently entertaining. They cannot fully address this concern empirically. Thus, they need some way to make predictions. The problem is that one rarely can predict exactly what will happen, only what might happen. To overcome this limitation, executives can be provided predictions of possible futures and the conditions under which each scenario is likely to emerge. Models can help them to understand these possible futures. Most executives find such candor refreshing, perhaps even liberating. Their job becomes one of imagining and designing a portfolio of possible futures, assisted by interactive computational models. Understanding and managing uncertainty is central to their job. Indeed, doing this better than competitors is a hallmark of success. This book is intended to help them understand what fundamentally needs to be done, why it needs to be done, and how to do it. The hope is that readers will discuss this book and develop a “shared mental model” of computational modeling in the process, which will greatly enhance their chances of success.
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Sizemore, Michelle. Magical Vanishing Point. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190627539.003.0006.
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This chapter advances a new understanding of the historical romance as a medium for constituting the people via the readerly experience of enchantment. The motif of vanishing in the revolutionary romance, a generic subcategory, signals the absent historical present and the related challenge of representing the people in process. Contrary to a long tradition of literary criticism, the chapter argues that the genre of historical romance seeks to trace out the historical present amid lived conditions of uncertainty. In William Austin’s “Peter Rugg, the Missing Man” (1824) and Catharine Sedgwick’s The Linwoods (1835), two different forms of enchantment (supernatural and affective; the latter is The Linwood’s version of eros) serve as diagnostics on the present, as does the genre’s simultaneous prediction of the future and recreation of the past.
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Mulsow, Martin. The Bible as Secular Story. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198806837.003.0017.
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Hermann von der Hardt’s exegetical work is extremely idiosyncratic and controversial. Yet it is important for at least two reasons. First, his reading of the Bible evinces a thorough philological approach that served to corroborate his view of the complicated, encoded structures of biblical history. Secondly, von der Hardt refused to present the Book of Jonah as a prediction of Christ’s coming, as was usually done before him. Instead, he adopted a strictly historical interpretation that avoided delving into the mysteries of divine providence and explained the book as series of practical, moral, and political recommendations. His exegesis shows a predilection for a historical-critical interpretation that fits in the tradition associated with La Peyrère, Spinoza, and Simon. For von der Hardt, the moral implications of the text were of overriding importance.
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Szmukler, George. The conventional grounds for involuntary treatment are highly problematic. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198801047.003.0003.
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Substantial problems attach to both of the fundamental criteria that need to be met for involuntary treatment in conventional mental health legislation—the presence of a ‘mental disorder’ and a risk of harm to self or others. The boundaries of ‘mental disorder’ are of necessity loosely drawn, with substantial blurring at the edges and contested views about where these should lie. ‘Values’—for example, when does ‘sadness’ become a ‘depressive illness’—play a significant role in determining when a diagnosis of a ‘disorder’ is warranted. Precision in the assessment of ‘risk’ is poor, especially for those infrequent or rare harms that we are most concerned to prevent. In general psychiatric practice, the prediction of suicide or serious acts of violence to others is of severely limited value. Even with ‘state-of-the-art’ risk assessment measures, ‘false positives’ overwhelm ‘true positives’. Significant costs attach to an emphasis on risk assessment.
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Hain, Richard D. W., and Satbir Singh Jassal. Practicalities around time of death. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198745457.003.0019.
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In helping children to have a ‘good death’, it is vitally important to understand the practical issues around death. Parents often have little or no understanding of this and will look to the health-care professional for guidance. When done well, the parents are left unaware of the complexities involved. However, when done badly, the parents can be left feeling very upset. Predicting the time of death for a child is notoriously difficult, and this issue is addressed by this chapter. A detailed overview of practicalities around the time of death is provided, with information on the correct procedure before death, certifying and registering a death, cremation, organ and tissue donation, and transporting and looking after the body. Further practicalities, including the post-mortem, the role of the coroner, and the role of the Child Death Overview Panel, are also covered.
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LiVecche, Marc, and Timothy S. Mallard. The Good Kill. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197515808.001.0001.
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The Good Kill examines killing in war in its moral and normative dimension. It argues against the commonplace belief, often tacitly held if not consciously asserted, among academics, the general public, and even military professionals, that killing, including in a justified war, is always morally wrong even when necessary. In light of an increasingly sophisticated understanding of combat trauma, this belief is a crisis. Moral injury, a proposed subset of posttraumatic stress disorder, occurs when one does something that goes against deeply held normative convictions. In a military context, the primary predictor of moral injury is having killed in combat. In turn, the primary predictor for suicide among combat veterans is moral injury. In this way, the assertion that killing is wrong but in war it is necessary becomes deadly, rendering the very business of the profession of arms morally injurious. It does not need to be this way. Beginning with the simple observation—recognized by both common sense and law—that killing comes in different kinds, this book equips warfighters and those charged with their care and formation with confidence in the rectitude of certain kinds of killing. Engaging with Augustine, Thomas Aquinas, Reinhold Niebuhr, Paul Ramsey, Nigel Biggar, and other leading Christian realists, crucial normative principles within the just war tradition are brought to bear on questions regarding just conduct in war, moral and nonmoral evil, and enemy love. The Good Kill helps equip the just warrior to navigate the morally bruising field of battle without becoming irreparably morally injured.
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Thapar, Anita, and Stephanie van Goozen. Conduct disorder in ADHD. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198739258.003.0020.
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Conduct disorder (CD) is an important marker of ADHD clinical and cognitive impairment and neurodevelopmental multimorbidity. It is also predictive of poor psychiatric and functional outcomes. Although traditionally considered as a consequence of ADHD, association of ADHD and CD can be explained at multiple levels—in terms of enriched familial/genetic risks, higher levels of psychosocial adversity, a likely different pattern of cognitive and neural correlates that involve emotional processes components, earlier temperamental risk characteristics, and additional neurodevelopmental burden such as language impairments and lower cognitive ability. The presence of CD does not alter current ADHD guideline recommendations on treatment but should be taken into account when making decisions upon the intensity and nature of follow-up.
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Anjum, Rani Lill, and Stephen Mumford. Causation in Science and the Methods of Scientific Discovery. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198733669.001.0001.
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Some of the chief goals of science are understanding, explanation, prediction, and application in new technologies. Only if the world has some significant degree of constancy in what follows from what can these activities be conducted with any purpose. But what is the source of such predictability and how does it operate? This is a question that goes beyond science itself and inevitably requires a philosophical approach. It is argued in such terms that causation is the main foundation upon which the possibility of science rests. But what methods should we adopt in order to identify causes in science? The choice of methods will inevitably reflect what one takes causation to be, making an accurate account of causation an even more pressing matter. The enquiry concerns the correct norms for the empirical study of the world. This matters a lot. Some of the greatest challenges that we face will only be solved if we understand what has caused the problem and what, if anything, could then cause its alleviation.
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Myrberg, Sara, and Tomas Riad. On the Expression of Focus in the Metrical Grid and in the Prosodic Hierarchy. Edited by Caroline Féry and Shinichiro Ishihara. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199642670.013.41.
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This chapter examines the phonological correlates of information structural focus in the metrical grid and in the prosodic hierarchy, with emphasis on how they cooperate to express focus in simple cases but seem to conflict in more complex cases. Two Germanic languages, English and Swedish, are compared to highlight the implications of so-called nested foci and Second Occurrence Focus (SOF) with respect to how the metrical grid and the prosodic hierarchy interact in phonology. After providing an overview of metrical grid and prosodic hierarchy, a short description of Swedish intonation is given. The chapter then considers nested foci and SOF. It offers some predictions for Swedish of the constraint STRESSFOCUS, which does not specify what the correlation between metrical grid marks and heads of the prosodic hierarchy should be in the case of focus. It suggests that focus is expressed in a more categorical fashion in Swedish than in English.
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Cork, Steven, ed. Resilience and Transformation. CSIRO Publishing, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/9780643098138.
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Resilience and Transformation explores what factors contribute to Australia’s resilience, what trends are apparent, and what actions are required to better prepare us for the immediate and longer term future.
Resilience is a word used more and more across societies worldwide as decision makers realise that predicting and controlling the future does not work and that preparing for uncertainty and surprise is vital. Many viewpoints have emerged on how to assess and achieve resilience of individuals, organisations, communities and ecosystems, but rarely has the resilience of a nation been considered. As Australia moves into a millennium that promises major economic, social, technological and environmental change, Australia21 has assembled some of Australia’s leading thinkers to give their perspectives on the extent and direction of resilience across our nation’s social, economic, ecological and disaster management systems.
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Peng, Mike W., and Theodore A. Khoury. Unbundling the Institution‐Based View of International Business Strategy. Edited by Alan M. Rugman. Oxford University Press, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199234257.003.0010.
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Critics suggest that the industry-based view has the five forces framework and the resource-based view converges on the VRIO framework, yet what specific propositions or frameworks does the institution-based view of IB strategy have? This article addresses this important and legitimate question, by identifying and articulating the two core propositions underpinning the institution-based view: (1) individuals and firms act rationally according to formal and informal institutional structures; (2) when formal institutions fail, informal institutions regulate exchange relationships. In other words, this article endeavours to advance the institution-based view of IB strategy by unbundling the broad proposition that ‘institutions matter’. It leverages and extends contemporary research to illustrate the explanatory and predictive power of the two propositions underpinning the institution-based view of IB strategy.
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Ondrey, Hauna T. Theodore of Mopsuestia. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198824534.003.0003.
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Chapter 2, “Theodore of Mopsuestia: The Twelve within the First Age,” identifies the primary role Theodore assigns the Twelve Prophets in their ministry to Old Testament Israel as predicting future events in order to demonstrate God’s care, sovereignty, and providential oversight of Israel’s history. He additionally emphasizes the prophets’ revelatory role in educating Israel of the one creator God and his attributes. Consistent with his Commentary on John and catechetical homilies, Theodore is insistent that none of the Trinitarian hypostases was revealed prior to Christ’s Trinitarian command at Matthew 28. However, Theodore does identify some prophecies as having their literal fulfilment in the New Testament, distinct from both types and retrospective accommodation. Yet even as this reinstates christological prophecy within Theodore’s Old Testament exegesis, it exposes his problematic Christology, as he clearly separates the son of David from the Son of God.
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Woods, Bob, and Gill Windle. The effect of ageing on personality. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199644957.003.0052.
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Ageing and personality interact. Whilst experiences that may be associated with age, including changes in roles and social networks, losses and health challenges, may require adaptation of aspects of personality, personality across the life-span fundamentally influences how ageing is experienced. There are indications that extraversion, conscientiousness and openness show reduced levels in later life, but people’s rank order on personality traits remains stable. Development continues into later life, but builds on earlier experiences and ways of coping. Personality resources such as self-esteem, perceived control, self-efficacy and resilience shape the person’s response to adversity in later life, enabling older people to maintain high levels of well-being, despite the challenges. Dementia, the ultimate challenge, is accompanied by personality change, with raised neuroticism and lowered conscientiousness both predicting its onset and accompanying its course. Pre-morbid personality does also appear to have some influence on behavioural problems experienced.
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Hilborn, Ray. Overfishing. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198808978.003.0019.
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This chapter calls into question the veracity of stories, often seen in the scientific literature and popular media, describing the collapse of fish stocks and predicting a soon-to-be-seen dramatic decline in food production from the ocean. In fact, detailed scientific analyses suggest that fish stock abundance is globally stable, and much of the decline in fish catch has been due to more stringent management of fisheries in many countries. This has led to a polarization between those who look at abundance trends, and argue that improving fisheries management is the solution, and those who look at catch and argue that fisheries management does not work and marine protected areas are needed. Data clearly support the effectiveness of fisheries management, whereas remarkably little data demonstrates the impact of marine protected areas outside of the closed areas. This chapter argues the actual impacts of MPAs need to be evaluated much more intensively.
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Barwich, Ann-Sophie. Measuring the World. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198779636.003.0017.
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How much does stimulus input shape perception? The common-sense view is that our perceptions are representations of objects and their features and that the stimulus structures the perceptual object. The problem for this view concerns perceptual biases as responsible for distortions and the subjectivity of perceptual experience. These biases are increasingly studied as constitutive factors of brain processes in recent neuroscience. In neural network models the brain is said to cope with the plethora of sensory information by predicting stimulus regularities on the basis of previous experiences. Drawing on this development, this chapter analyses perceptions as processes. Looking at olfaction as a model system, it argues for the need to abandon a stimulus-centred perspective, where smells are thought of as stable percepts, computationally linked to external objects such as odorous molecules. Perception here is presented as a measure of changing signal ratios in an environment informed by expectancy effects from top-down processes.
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Frankham, Richard, Jonathan D. Ballou, Katherine Ralls, Mark Eldridge, Michele R. Dudash, Charles B. Fenster, Robert C. Lacy, and Paul Sunnucks. Genetic Management of Fragmented Animal and Plant Populations. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198783398.001.0001.
Full textAbstract:
The biological diversity of the planet is being rapidly depleted due to the direct and indirect consequences of human activity. As the size of animal and plant populations decrease and fragmentation increases, loss of genetic diversity reduces their ability to adapt to changes in the environment, with inbreeding and reduced fitness inevitable consequences for many species. Many small isolated populations are going extinct unnecessarily. In many cases, such populations can be genetically rescued by gene flow into them from another population within the species, but this is very rarely done. This novel and authoritative book addresses the issues involved in genetic management of fragmented animal and plant populations, including inbreeding depression, loss of genetic diversity and elevated extinction risk in small isolated populations, augmentation of gene flow, genetic rescue, causes of outbreeding depression and predicting its occurrence, desirability and implementation of genetic translocations to cope with climate change, and defining and diagnosing species for conservation purposes.
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Rees, Martin J. Global Catastrophic Risks. Edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic. Oxford University Press, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198570509.001.0001.
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A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.
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Feinstein, Robert E., and Brian Rothberg. Violence. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199326075.003.0013.
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Potentially violent patients need immediate attention and evaluation to determine their risk of imminent violence. A past history of violence is the best predictor of future violent behavior, and individuals who have committed violent acts in the past and have been arrested for assaultive behavior represent the highest risk; people who carry weapons or have access to weapons are of relatively high risk. Individuals with violent impulses who are either intoxicated or are in withdrawal have the most extreme risk for imminent violence. The treatment of acute aggression or agitation involves the judicious use of sedative-anxiolytics or low doses of second-generation antipsychotics. SSRIs have been used to treat aggressive, impulsive, and violent symptoms, particularly in individuals with head injuries, and lithium carbonate can reduce impulsive aggression to extremely low levels in some aggressive patients. Two Tarasoff decisions have become national standards for clinical practice regarding “duty to warn” and “duty to protect” all potential victims of life-threatening danger from a homicidal patient.
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Schröder, Michael, and Axel Schwanebeck, eds. Big Data - In den Fängen der Datenkraken. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/9783748904373.
Full textAbstract:
Our beautiful, new digital world has a come at a price, which we are paying by relinquishing our personal data–while we are shopping, driving our cars, and chatting and surfing on the Internet. However, the intelligent algorithms needed to process this data pose a threat to freedom in our society. They analyse and evaluate us, while predicting our behaviour. Big data and data mining are the business models of the future. What does all this mean for politics, the economy, journalism and political communication? Do we have to defend basic human rights and human dignity against the digital revolution? Do we need new laws and a code of ethics for algorithms? And how will politics, the media and democracy function under these new conditions? In this book, experts from a variety of academic fields, journalism and politics discuss these questions in terms of the future and society. With contributions by Johanna Haberer, Yvonne Hofstetter, Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, Klaus Mainzer, Daniel Moßbrucker, Peter Schaar, Michael Schröder, Axel Schwanebeck and Thomas Zeilinger.
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Colander, David, and Craig Freedman. Where Economics Went Wrong. Princeton University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691179209.001.0001.
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Milton Friedman once predicted that advances in scientific economics would resolve debates about whether raising the minimum wage is good policy. Decades later, Friedman's prediction has not come true. This book argues that it never will. Why? Because economic policy, when done correctly, is an art and a craft. It is not, and cannot be, a science. The book explains why classical liberal economists understood this essential difference, why modern economists abandoned it, and why now is the time for the profession to return to its classical liberal roots. Carefully distinguishing policy from science and theory, classical liberal economists emphasized values and context, treating economic policy analysis as a moral science where a dialogue of sensibilities and judgments allowed for the same scientific basis to arrive at a variety of policy recommendations. Using the University of Chicago—one of the last bastions of classical liberal economics—as a case study, the book examines how both the MIT and Chicago variants of modern economics eschewed classical liberalism in their attempt to make economic policy analysis a science. By examining the way in which the discipline managed to lose its bearings, the authors delve into such issues as the development of welfare economics in relation to economic science, alternative voices within the Chicago School, and exactly how Friedman got it wrong. Contending that the division between science and prescription needs to be restored, the book makes the case for a more nuanced and self-aware policy analysis by economists.
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Kendrisic, Mirjana, and Borislava Pujic. Endocrine and autoimmune disorders. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198713333.003.0047.
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Advanced maternal age and increasing numbers of women of childbearing age with endocrine and autoimmune disorders have become the challenge for both anaesthetists and obstetricians. Genetic studies have provided new insight into underlying causes of endocrine disorders and prenatal prediction of inheritance. The expression of endocrine disease may influence the interpretation of diagnostic laboratory testing during pregnancy. Better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms enables new therapeutic approaches which can compromise pregnancy outcome. Although only a small number of drugs have been shown through clinical studies to be safe for use in pregnancy, intensive therapy for chronic disease is usually needed. Thus, anaesthetic management of women with endocrine disorders in pregnancy has become more complex. The most frequently encountered endocrine disorders during pregnancy include gestational diabetes mellitus and thyroid and adrenal disorders. Gestational diabetes has become increasingly common in pregnant women. Not only does it influence pregnancy outcome, but it also carries a risk for mother and offspring of developing type 2 diabetes later in life. Intensive glucose control may prevent maternal and fetal complications and improve long-term outcome. Pregnancy itself has been found to influence the course of autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus. However, autoimmune diseases may have adverse consequences for maternal, fetal, and neonatal health. There is a relative paucity of literature concerning anaesthetic management of autoimmune diseases. Early recognition and immediate treatment of the common complications have been the key elements to achieving the ultimate goal—good pregnancy outcome.
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Llewellyn, Sue. What Do Dreams Do? Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198818953.001.0001.
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What is a dream? It’s a complex, non-obvious pattern derived from your experience. But you haven’t actually experienced it. Strange. Revealing complex, hidden patterns makes dreams odd. Dreams associate elements of different experiences to make something new: a pattern you didn’t know was there until you dreamt it. Patterns are discernible forms in the way something happens or is done. Some patterns are easy to spot, being certain and obvious: night follows day. Patterns in human/animal experiences are less obvious because, first, the patterned elements appear at different times or places and, second, the pattern exhibits tendencies not certainties. Spotting such patterns depends on non-obvious associations. If prompted with ‘sea’, while awake, your logical brain makes obvious associations, ‘beach’ or ‘boat’, with a seaside pattern i.e. beach-boat-seaside. But after awakening from dreaming, when your brain is still tuned to non-obvious associations, ‘sick’ may come to mind. A less obvious element of sea experiences. You tend to seasickness when it’s rough. But you also get sick if you eat shellfish, have a migraine, or travel in cars—but only if you read. Sea–rough–car–read–shellfish–migraine. Visualizing these non-obvious associations between elements of different experiences becomes dream-like. Dreaming brains evolved to identify non-obvious associations. Across evolutionary time, you didn’t want to get sick. Survival depended on being well enough to anticipate the non-obvious patterns of predators and human competitors, while securing access to food and water. Making associations drives many, if not all, brain functions. Dream associations support memory, emotional stability, creativity, unconscious decision-making, and prediction, while also contributing to mental illness. This book explains how.
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Howard Ecklund, Elaine, and Christopher P. Scheitle. Religion vs. Science. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190650629.001.0001.
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Religion vs. Science: What Religious People Really Think busts today’s common myths about science and religion. It reveals several interesting and perhaps surprising realities. The book shows that religious people love much of science. They perceive conflicts only with the forms of science that seem to have implications for God’s role in the world and the value and sacredness of humans. Yet, they are often suspicious of scientists, thinking that scientists generally do not like religious people. Many religious people claim to be young-earth creationists, but they are actually much more open to evolution than this initial label might suggest. Not all religious people deny that the climate is changing, and that it is changing because of humans. And political views more than religious views are really the best predictor of what Americans think about climate change. Further, religious people want to support the environment, as long as love for the environment does not replace love of people. Finally, religious people are supportive of technological advancements, including typically controversial ideas like reproductive genetic technologies and human embryonic stem-cell research, but they want scientists to reflect more on the moral implications of their work. The book ends with practical suggestions and ideas for collaboration among all individuals and communities.
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McDougall, Jason J., and Joel A. Vilensky. The innervation of the joint and its role in osteoarthritis pain. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199668847.003.0007.
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Diarthrodial joints possess an extensive network of sensory and sympathetic nerve fibres whose physiological functions are varied and complex. Nerves are primarily located in the synovium but also innervate the subchondral bone, the outer third of menisci, and the superficial surface of tendons and ligaments. Large-diameter, myelinated neurons are involved in joint position sense while small-diameter neurons with thin or no myelin typically sense pain. The small-diameter nerves in conjunction with sympathetic fibres control synovial blood flow and maintain joint homeostasis. In patients with osteoarthritis (OA), the sensory nerves become sensitized and increase their firing rate in response to normal movement. This peripheral sensitization is mediated by numerous algogenic agents released into the OA knee including neuropeptides, eicosanoids, and proteinases. A portion of joint afferents fire in the absence of mechanical stimuli and encode pain at rest. Interestingly, the firing rate of joint afferents does not correlate with OA severity, indicating that pain is a poor predictor of joint pathology. Evidence is accumulating to suggest that a subpopulation of OA patients who are unresponsive to classical non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may be suffering from neuropathic pain in which there is damage to the joint nerves themselves. Better understanding of the biology of joint nerves could help in the development of patient-targeted therapies to alleviate OA pain and inflammation.
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Harper, Lorraine, and David Jayne. The patient with vasculitis. Edited by Giuseppe Remuzzi. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199592548.003.0160.
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The goals of treatment in renal vasculitis are to stop vasculitic activity and recover renal function. Subsequent strategies are required to prevent vasculitis returning and to address longer-term co-morbidities caused by tissue damage, drug toxicity, and increased cardiovascular and malignancy risk.Cyclophosphamide and high-dose glucocorticoids remain the standard induction therapy with alternative immunosuppressives, such as azathioprine, to prevent relapse. Plasma exchange improves renal recovery in severe presentations. Refractory disease resulting from a failure of induction or remission maintenance therapy requires alternative agents and rituximab has been particularly effective. Replacement of cyclophosphamide by rituximab for remission induction is supported by recent evidence. Methotrexate is effective in non-renal vasculitis but difficult to use in patients with renal impairment. Mycophenolate mofetil seems to be effective but there is less long-term evidence.Drug toxicity contributes to co-morbidity and mortality and has led to newer regimens with reduced cyclophosphamide exposure. Glucocorticoid toxicity remains a major problem with controversy over the rapidity with which glucocorticoids can be reduced or withdrawn.Disease relapse occurs in about 50% of patients. Early detection is less likely to lead to an adverse affect on outcomes. Rates of cardiovascular disease and malignancy are higher than in control populations but strategies to reduce their risk, apart from cyclophosphamide-sparing regimens, have not been developed. Thromboembolic events occur in 10% and may be linked to the recently identified autoantibodies to plasminogen and tissue plasminogen activator.Renal impairment at diagnosis is a strong predictor of patient survival and renal outcome. Other predictors include patient age, antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody subtype, disease extent and response to therapy. Chronic kidney disease can stabilize for many years but the risks of end-stage renal disease are increased by acute kidney injury at presentation or renal relapse. Renal transplantation is successful with similar outcomes to other causes of end-stage renal disease.