Academic literature on the topic 'Domestic food hygiene'

Poor food-handling and hygiene practices in domestic kitchens are thought to be the cause of a significant amount of foodborne illness. Food-handling practices were studied by video observation in 40 home kitchens in Melbourne, Australia. Participant households included those of single people, couples, and families from a range of socioeconomic backgrounds. The kitchens were continuously video monitored for 1 or 2 weeks during 1997 and 1998. Infrequent hand washing; poor hand-washing technique; lack of hand washing prior to food preparation; inadequate cleaning of kitchen surfaces; involvement of pets in the kitchen; touching of the face, mouth, nose, and/or hair during food preparation; and lack of separate hand and dish towels were the most common unhygienic practices observed. Prior to video surveillance, participant households answered a food-safety questionnaire that related to preparation and handling of food. These answers were contrasted with the actual practices observed in each household. There was a significant variance between stated (answers provided in response to the questionnaire) and observed (via video monitoring) food-handling and hygiene practices. The results of this study raise concerns about consumer food-handling and hygiene practices in Australian domestic kitchens. A continuous and increased effort in the education of the public in the area of hygienic food preparation is indicated.

In-home pet food handling and food dish hygiene practices can have adverse health impacts for both humans and pets. Safe food and dish handling guidelines are not easily evidenced for pet owners. The study was designed to investigate dog owners’ feeding habits and evaluate the impact of the Food and Drug Association (FDA) hygiene protocols on dog food dish contamination. Procedures and surveys were approved by North Carolina State University Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee and Institutional Review Board. Pet feeding and food dish hygiene data were collected from 417 dog owner surveys and 68 food dish swabs. Total aerobic plate counts (APC) were performed on 68 dishes and randomly assigned into Group A (FDA pet food handling and dish hygiene guidelines), Group B (FDA pet and human food handling and dish hygiene guidelines), or Group C (no guidelines). Hygiene protocols were instituted in-home for 1 week, followed by a second APC and follow-up survey. Survey from dog owners-households indicated: 4.7% were aware of FDA pet food handling and dish hygiene guidelines; 36% have individuals ≤ 13 years old and/or immunocompromised; 43% stored dog food 0–5 feet from human food; 34% washed their hands after feeding; and 33% prepared their dog food on human food preparation surfaces. The hygiene protocols followed by Groups A and B resulted in significant decreases in food dish APC (p<0.001; 1.4; (0.9, 2.0); p<0.05; 0.604 (0.02, 1.2), respectively), as compared to Group C (p≥0.05). Hot water (>160° F or 71.1°C) washing decreased APC (p<0.01; 1.5 (0.4, 2.6)) over cold/lukewarm water. In the follow-up survey, 8% of Group A and B respondents reported likely to adhere to protocols long-term. This study suggests a need for pet food handling and dish hygiene guideline education to minimize bacterial contamination of dishes, especially for high-risk populations.

Background: Food hygiene implies measures necessary to ensure safety of food from production to consumption. Food can become contaminated at any point during harvesting, processing, storage, distribution, transportation and preparation. Lack of proper food hygiene can lead to food borne diseases and death of the consumers. The purpose of food hygiene is to prepare and provide safe food and consequently contribute to a healthy and protective society.Methods: A community based cross-sectional study was conducted from September 2019 to February 2020 among 81 household food-handlers in a rural area of Kanchipuram district. A pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire based on WHO (World Health Organization) Food Safety Manual was used to collect the data regarding kitchen and food hygiene practices.Results: The study revealed that 74%of respondents handle drinking water unsatisfactorily. 89% of people don’t store cooked food in the refrigerator within 2 hours and nearly 54% of them don’t boil water before drinking. Only 48% of them separated raw food from cooked food.Conclusions: The results of the study showed that food hygiene practices should be improved in the community to safe guard them against food-borne diseases.

ABSTRACT Because of increased susceptibility, older adults have an increased risk of foodborne infection, and data suggest elevated incidence; therefore, food hygiene is essential to reduce the risk. Research suggests older adults' inadequate knowledge and negative attitudes toward food hygiene may increase implementation of unsafe food practices. Data on microbiological contamination of domestic kitchens of older adults are lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to determine microbiological contamination of domestic kitchens of older adults. Food contact surfaces and equipment (n = 1,292) in domestic kitchens (n = 100) of older adults (≥60 years) were analyzed to isolate aerobic bacteria, Enterobacteriaceae, Staphylococcus aureus, and Listeria spp.; self-reported hygiene practices were also recorded. Highest contamination levels were determined on in-use cleaning equipment (dish brushes, dishcloths, sponges) with aerobic bacteria &lt;9.3 log CFU per item, Enterobacteriaceae &lt;8.8 log CFU per item, and S. aureus &lt;7.0 log CFU per item. Reported usage length of dish brushes was significantly correlated (P &lt; 0.05) with Enterobacteriaceae contamination. Significant correlations (P &lt; 0.05) were determined between contamination and reported cleaning frequency of refrigerators. Contamination of hand towels in single-occupant households was significantly greater (P &lt; 0.05) than in multioccupant households. The study facilitates novel comparison between reported hygiene practices with microbial contamination, suggesting older adults fail to implement adequate and regular hygiene practices that may increase the possibility of cross-contamination in the domestic kitchen and the associated risk of foodborne illness. Data from this study have determined a need for older adults to improve food hygiene practices in the domestic kitchen.

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and the closure of universities as a measure to prevent contamination directly affected academic communities. Access to food, though a basic need and a human right, was seriously affected. This study evaluated the locations and frequency of food acquisition; hand, food, and packaging hygiene habits; and household waste generation in an academic community during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research was cross-sectional and performed through an online questionnaire. Data (n = 1472) were analyzed using descriptive statistics; statistical tests were also applied, and p values < 0.01 were considered significant. Most of the population continued to purchase food in supermarkets (89.5%). The frequency of product orders from markets by delivery placed by professors and graduate students was also verified (31.7% and 24.2%). There was an increase in packaging hygiene in the studied population, as well as in fruit and vegetable hygiene; however, use of inappropriate methods was noted. This paper highlights important data on the behavior of an academic community dealing with the problem of solid waste generation during the pandemic. Moreover, there were no changes in waste generation during the pandemic, although there was an increase in packaging consumption (44%). Identifying the behavior of the university community regarding hygiene and food acquisition can help societies from the perspective of transforming habits related to food. Therefore, this research provides support for future investigations and interventions in the field of foods and post-pandemic sustainability.

Amidst growing concern about both nutrition and food safety, anxiety about a loss of everyday cooking skills is a common part of public discourse. Within both the media and academia, it is widely perceived that there has been an erosion of the skills held by previous generations with the development of convenience foods and kitchen technologies cited as culpable in ‘deskilling’ current and future generations. These discourses are paralleled in policy concerns, where the incidence of indigenous food-borne disease in the UK has led to the emergence of an understanding of consumer behaviour, within the food industry and among food scientists, based on assumptions about consumer ‘ignorance’ and poor food hygiene knowledge and cooking skills. These assumptions are accompanied by perceptions of a loss of ‘common-sense’ understandings about the spoilage and storage characteristics of food, supposedly characteristic of earlier generations. The complexity of cooking skills immediately invites closer attention to discourses of their assumed decline. This paper draws upon early findings from a current qualitative research project which focuses on patterns of continuity and change in families’ domestic kitchen practices across three generations. Drawing mainly upon two family case studies, the data presented problematise assumptions that earlier generations were paragons of virtue in the context of both food hygiene and cooking. In taking a broader, life-course perspective, we highlight the absence of linearity in participants’ engagement with cooking as they move between different transitional points throughout the life-course.

The objective of this study was to analyze the scientific production on health interventions related to hygiene for adults with HIV/AIDS. An integrative literature review was performed using six databases in June 2013. The descriptors AIDS and Hygiene were used, in Portuguese, English or Spanish. A total of 682 articles were found and 16 were selected. Personal hygiene practices were identified, such as hand washing, showers, tooth brushing and quitting smoking. Food hygiene practices involved washing food and kitchen utensils, using treated water, conserving and cooking food. Environmental hygiene took into account raising domestic animals, control of disease vectors, household cleanliness, waste disposal and basic sanitation. In conclusion, these specific hygiene interventions can be applied to the general population and, especially, to people with HIV/AIDS, due to immunosuppression.

Improper domestic food handling in rural areas of China is an important public health issue leading to foodborne illness. However, the underlying factors responsible for poor domestic food hygiene practices have not been comprehensively studied. Here, a cross-sectional study was conducted in Anhui Province, China between 2015 - 2016, using a questionnaire to collect data from 819 respondents, selected using multistage cluster random sampling techniques. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then used to assess the demographic factors associated with improper food handling. Results showed that 525 (64.1%) of respondents used improper food handling techniques. The factors associated with improper food handling included gender, age, education, income, and occupation. Males (vs. females), adults aged ≥ 50 years (vs. those aged 18 - 30 years), individuals with primary school education or lower (vs. individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher), individuals with annual incomes of < 4,387 USD (vs. income ≥ 13,161 USD), and workers (vs. other occupation groups) were more likely to report inappropriate food handling practices in rural areas. The results obtained from the present work may provide the basis for training in domestic food safety hygiene/handling practices in rural areas of China in order to reduce the incidence of foodborne illnesses.

Purpose – In order to improve the safety of seafood in the domestic seafood distribution chains (DSDCs) in Vietnam, a better understanding of current hygiene and practices compliance with government regulations is needed. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach – Infrastructure conditions and documents related to hygiene procedures of 50 trading places were evaluated using checklists. The hygiene handling practices of 135 fish distributors were also observed by using notational analysis methods. This notational analysis method focused on actions related to microbiological contamination in terms of hand washing or glove changing and the cleaning and sanitising of tools and equipment. Additionally, microbiological quality of 135 samples of raw finfish at points along distribution chains was compared with national standards. Findings – The results indicated that all trading places could be classified as non-compliant or seriously non-compliant with the regulations. The practices of fish distributors were also assessed to be at high risk for contamination of raw fish. The findings showed that approximately 42 and 39 per cent of samples from fishing ports and fish markets, respectively were classified as unacceptable according to the microbiological standards of Vietnam. Research limitations/implications – The present study is limited to research only from fish landing at fishing ports to the distribution to consumers at retail markets. Originality/value – Recommendations for improving food safety in the DSDCs in Vietnam have been developed from the findings of this study and are provided. However, due to similarities with fish distribution chains in other countries, these recommendations may have broader application.

The aim of this investigation was to evaluate the hygiene of domestic food preparation practices. The traditional survey approach used to study this behaviour has problems of interpretation and verification. In this study direct observation, supplemented with food temperature measurements was used to gather information for the purpose of developing an understanding of the causes of domestic food poisoning. The food handling practices of 108 people preparing foods commonly implicated in outbreaks of food poisoning were analysed. A HACCP approach was employed and a standard measure of hygienic food handling behaviour, the Food Safety Risk Score, (FSR) was devised. The FSR score indicated the extent of the use of appropriate control measures during food preparation. The higher the score the greater the risk of unsafe food being produced. Scores expressed as a percentage, ranged from 0 to 65% with over half of the subjects scoring below 20%. More than half (60%) of the people cooked in advance of consumption but most (85%) cooked the food thoroughly. Few used any method to speed the cooling of cooked food. Temperature abuse during food transport and storage was exhibited by more than 40% of people. Cooked food was held at ambient temperature for prolonged periods by 19% of the people and was re-heated inadequately by 11%. The standard of personal hygiene of some participants was low. An assessment of the cleanliness of the domestic kitchen and the condition of equipment and surfaces used in food preparation, based on ATP measurements and a kitchen checklist showed that there was a wide variation in the standards found in homes. The great potential for indirect and direct cross contamination in the domestic kitchen was highlighted. The problems involved in persuading people to practise well-known food hygiene principles are considered and recommendations for improving domestic food hygiene are made.

Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina Veterinária
Insect consumption has been increasing worldwide, particularly in industrialized countries. Insect-based ingredients are considered novel foods in Europe, which raises some concern regarding the food safety of these products. Gut emptying by starvation prior to killing is perceived as an effective practice in the reduction of the microbial load of insects but can lead to weight loss and consequently a profit reduction to the farmers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the fat loss of crickets (Acheta domesticus) starved for 0h, 24h and 48h, and their corresponding microbial loads (total aerobic counts (TAC) and Enterobacteriaceae). Gram stains were also performed for the colony-forming units (CFU) from TAC. The effect of sex on the microbial numbers was assessed, having not been found significant differences (p=0.72 and p=0.46 for TAC and Enterobacteriaceae, respectively). TAC increased (p=0.002) by almost 1 log CFU/g in the 48h starvation group. Only the 24h starvation group showed a significant decrease (p=0.004) in Enterobacteriaceae counts of 1 log CFU/g. The Gram stains showed changes in the microbiological composition of samples collected at 24 and 48h. Gram-positive cocci predominated at 24h but decreased at 48h (from 68 to 48%). Bacilli were only detected at 24h (8%). The fat content did not decrease significantly, neither at 24h (p=0.13 for males and p=0.13 for females) nor at 48h (p=0.57 and p=0.98 for males and females, respectively). Starvation for 24h was efficient in reducing the microbial load of raw crickets without significant fat loss. A longer starvation period promoted a higher microbial load, possibly due to modulation observed in the microbial diversity.
RESUMO - Impacto do jejum na matéria gorda e teor microbiano presente no grilo doméstico (Acheta domesticus) utilizado para alimentação humana - O consumo de insetos tem vindo a aumentar globalmente, particularmente em países industrializados. Ingredientes à base de insetos são considerados novos alimentos na Europa, o que suscita alguma preocupação em matéria de segurança dos alimentos destes ingredientes. O esvaziamento do trato gastrointestinal através de jejum antes do abate é visto como uma prática eficaz na redução do teor microbiano presente nos insetos, mas pode, no entanto, levar a perda de peso considerável e, consequentemente, à redução de lucro para os produtores. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a perda de gordura no grilo doméstico (Acheta domesticus) quando submetido a períodos de jejum de 0h, 24h e 48h, e correspondentes teores microbianos (Aeróbios totais (AT) e Enterobacteriaceae). Foram ainda feitas colorações de Gram a partir das unidades formadoras de colónia (UFC) das placas de AT. O efeito do sexo na carga microbiana foi avaliado, não tendo sido encontradas diferenças significativas (p=0.72 e p=0.46 para AT e Enterobacteriaceae, respetivamente). A contagem de AT aumentou (p=0.002) em cerca de 1 log UFC/g no grupo de jejum de 48h. Apenas o grupo submetido a jejum por 24h mostrou um decréscimo significativo (p=0.004) nas contagens de Enterobacteriaceae na ordem de 1 log UFC/g. As colorações de Gram mostraram alteração da composição microbiana das amostras colhidas às 24 e às 48h, com predominância de cocos Gram-positivos às 24h e redução às 48h (de 68 para 48%). Foram detetados bacilos apenas no grupo 24h (8%). Não houve redução significativa do teor de gordura nem às 24h (p=0.13 em machos e p=0.13 em fêmeas) nem às 48h (p=0.57 e p=0.98 em machos e em fêmeas, respetivamente). A aplicação de um período de jejum de 24h foi eficaz na redução da carga microbiana de grilos crus sem redução de gordura significativa. Um período de jejum mais prolongado promoveu um teor microbiano mais elevado, possivelmente devido à modulação da diversidade microbiana.
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Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli are frequent cause of bacterial enteritis in industrialised countries and is a major cause of childhood illness in the developing world. Although deaths due to campylobacteriosis are rare, the morbidity and public health and economic burden is high because of its very high incidence. Campylobacters normally inhabit the intestinal tract of wild birds and domestic animals. Poultry is a major source of campylobacter infection and a large proportion of retail chicken meat is contaminated. Other meats are contaminated to a lesser degree. Human infection is mostly sporadic and outbreaks are uncommon. Infections arise from the consumption of raw or inadequately cooked meat or from other foods contaminated during production or preparation. Contaminated water and raw milk can also act as vehicles of campylobacter infection and have given rise to significant outbreaks. The most effective means of controlling human campylobacteriosis would be the implementation of measures to reduce the contamination of food producing animals during slaughter and processing. Public health education regarding the principles of hygiene and safe food handling are also important.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that around 600 million foodborne illnesses occur annually. Many of these illnesses are associated with incorrect food safety and handling practices in the industrial or residential environment. And although consumers show concern with food safety, statistics show that during the purchase, handling, and storage of food, the necessary precautions to protect health are not noticed. In addition, aspects related to food hygiene and conservation, especially in the domestic environment, are often underreported and underreported in the literature. Still, they are no less important for public health since about 37% of DTA's in recent years registered in Brazil occurred in the domestic environment, evaluate habitshygienic-sanitary in food handling by consumers of Nossa Senhora da Glória – Sergipe. Interviews were conducted with 155 consumers aged between 18 and 74 through an online questionnaire carried out by the Google forms platform. The survey results indicated that around 70% of consumers interviewed in Nossa Senhora Glória (SE) demonstrated inadequate practices and care about hygiene, handling, and preservation of food in the home environment, especially concerning the hygiene of the food packaging surface. Therefore, disseminating knowledge about the importance of Good Handling Practices in the home environment and determining educational actions are essential for consumers to change their habits and perceptions about hygiene and food safety. Key words: food safety, sanitation, food preservation.

For the past three years the COVID-19 pandemic has received much global attention due to the high risk of fatality and human-to-human transmission. This pandemic has forced changes in every sector as well as in different aspects of everyone's daily lives. Travelling has had a critical role in contributing to its transmission by negatively influencing the majority of public health. The hospitality and tourism industry is subject to being immediately influenced by the external environment. This chapter explains how COVID-19 has affected food and beverage operations and safety in the sector and the global economy. New rules and regulations are described in detail. The future of food and beverage operations has changed by integrating technology, touchless contact, social distancing, and hygiene precautions, focusing on domestic travel, virtual tourism, and luxury travel.

Diarrhea is an increase in the incidence and fluidity of feces that is greatest characterized by duration (acute versus chronic), pathophysiologic apparatus, and anatomic location. Different types of diarrhea influence the health of both sexes. Infectious diarrhea is a big issue in many underdeveloped nations, with a high death rate, specifically among children under the age of five. Water diarrhea can be caused by a variety of microorganisms, including viruses, bacteria, and parasites. Acute bloody diarrhea is a health emergency that should be treated quickly. Most instances of acute diarrhea are clear on their own days without remedy. If you have adopted lifestyle adjustments and domestic remedies for diarrhea without achievement, there these are thought to be clinical remedies. By proper sanitation, hygiene protection, hand washing, food hygiene, and vaccination are required to control diarrhea.

Sarcocystosis is characterized by the invasion of various tissues by protozoa of the genus Sarcocystis. S. hominis (intermediate host domestic cattle) and S. suihominis (domestic pig) are the most significant to humans, to whom they are transmitted by ingestion of uncooked beef or pork. Camel meat can be a significant source of S. cameli in Arabia. Humans and other primates serve as either intermediate or final host: (1) intermediate host—presence of cysts in muscle is usually asymptomatic, but might cause myositis or myopathy; detected on clinical examination or muscle biopsy; (2) final host—can be asymptomatic or cause fever and gastrointestinal upset; oocysts or sporocysts can be detected in faeces. There is no specific treatment. Prevention is by not eating uncooked meat from any animal and by improving food hygiene in poorer countries.

The aim of the Kitchen Life 2 project is to identify the key behaviours relating to food safety that occur in domestic and business kitchens, as well as the factors that may reduce the likelihood to enact recommended food safety and hygiene behaviours. The outcomes will inform risk assessment and development of hypotheses for behavioural interventions. The goal of this literature review was to ensure that the research design and fieldwork techniques identify existing key behaviours, actors, triggers and barriers in domestic and business kitchens to develop successful behavioural interventions and risk assessment models. Additionally, we have included the impacts of Covid-19 pandemic and national lockdowns on food safety practices in domestic and business kitchens. This addition is important because FSA policy response to the pandemic should address the needs of both consumers and food businesses due to reduced ability to deliver inspection and enforcement activities, business diversification (for example, shifting to online delivery and takeaway), increasing food insecurity, and change in food consumption behaviours (for example, cooking from scratch) (FSA, 2020).

Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias