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1
Liu, Yunong. "Analysis of The Impact between Fluctuations in the Exchange Rate of RMB against The U.S. Dollar and China's Export Business." Highlights in Business, Economics and Management 1 (November 28, 2022): 280–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/hbem.v1i.2587.
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In this project, when the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rises in the trade between China and the United States, due to the decline in the income of export goods, the decline in total export value will lead to a decrease in the number of dollars exchanged by China, and on the contrary, the income from imports will increase, so Imports also increase, causing more dollars to be spent. In this way, after a certain period, the total amount of U.S. dollars held by China will decrease, which will lead to an increase in China's demand for U.S. dollars, which will lead to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, that is, the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar will decline.
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Pangestuti, Dewi Cahyani, Ardhiani Fadila, and Siwi Nugraheni. "Rupiah Exchange Rate Fluctuations in The US Dollar, Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Fisher Effect Theory Testing." Nominal Barometer Riset Akuntansi dan Manajemen 11, no. 1 (April 30, 2022): 79–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.21831/nominal.v11i1.42982.
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Abstract: Rupiah Exchange Rate Fluctuations in The US Dollar, Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Fisher Effect Theory Testing. To test the accuracy of the power purchasing parity theory and the international fisher effect theory on fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar. The goal of this study is to examine if the power purchasing parity theory and the international fisher effect theory are valid when it comes to Rupiah-US Dollar exchange rate movements. The purpose of this research is to figure out the rate of inflation, interest rate, and movement of the rupiah against the US dollar. This research examined historical data on the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, interest rates, and inflation rates in Indonesia and the United States from January 2015 through December 2020. In this research, multiple linear regression analysis was used. Research proved that the theory of power purchasing parity applies to changes in the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate on the US dollar. The international fisher effect does not apply to changes in the Indonesian Rupiah currency rate against the US dollar, which proves the existence of theoretical deviations that result in the invalidity of this theory.Keywords: purchasing power parity, international fisher effect, exchange rateAbstrak: Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah dalam Dollar US, Pengujian Teori Paritas Daya Beli dan Teori Fisher Efek. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji keakuratan volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS dalam teori paritas daya beli (PPP) dan teori dampak fisher internasional. Variabel dalam penelitian ini adalah inflasi, suku bunga, dan pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah data historis nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat dan tingkat suku bunga Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat serta tingkat inflasi dari bulan Januari 2015 sampai dengan Desember 2020. Metode dalam penelitian adalah: Analisis regresi linier berganda. Penelitian membuktikan bahwa teori power purchasing parity berlaku pada perubahan kurs mata uang Rupiah Indonesia pada Dollar Amerika Serikat. Teori internasional fisher effect tidak berlaku berlaku pada perubahan kurs mata uang Rupiah Indonesia pada Dollar Amerika Serikat, yang membuktikan adanya penyimpangan teori yang mengakibatkan tidak berlakunya teori ini.Kata kunci: paritas daya beli, internasional efek fisher, perubahan kurs
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Chiang, Bong-Gyu. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and the Effect of Exchange Rates on Export and Import Prices." Korea International Trade Research Institute 18, no. 5 (October 31, 2022): 295–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.16980/jiyc.22.5.202210.295.
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Purpose - Since most of Korea's import/export transactions are made using US dollars as the invoicing currency, it is necessary to consider not only the won/dollar exchange rate but also the exchange rate between the dollar and the import/export currency when examining the effect of exchange rates on import/export prices.
Design/Methodology/Approach - This essay theoretically examined that in the vehicle currency trades, the prices in vehicle currency are affected not only by the exchange rate between the exporting country currency and the vehicle currency but also by the exchange rate between the vehicle currency and the importing country currency. This was confirmed by empirical analysis in Korea's imports and exports.
Findings - In exports by country, the coefficient of the won/dollar exchange rate showed a significant value in 11 out of 21 countries, and the effect of the dollar/importing country currency exchange rate was significant in 13 out of 21 countries. In imports by country, the dollar/exporting currency exchange rates showed significant effects in 10 out of 21 countries, and the effect of the won/dollar exchange rate was significant in 8 countries.
Research Implications - When studying the effect of exchange rates on import/export prices in the case of vehicle currency pricing, not only the effects of the exchange rate between the importing/exporting country currencies but also the effects of various exchange rates should be considered according to the invoicing currency.
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Kreicher, Lawrence L., and Robert N. McCauley. "Managing the Dollar Over Its Cycles." Atlantic Economic Journal 49, no. 2 (June 2021): 143–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11293-021-09719-0.
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AbstractThe United States has ceded to the rest of the world managing the dollar’s value. For a generation, the U.S. authorities have all but withdrawn from the foreign exchange market. Yet the dollar does not float freely as a result of this hands-off U.S. policy. Instead, other authorities manage the dollar exchange rates, albeit separately. These authorities make heavier purchases of dollars in its downswings than in the upswings, damping its decline. Thus, the Fed finds that accommodative monetary policy transmits less to U.S. manufacturing and traded services, and relies on still lower rates to stimulate interest-sensitive housing and auto demand. The current U.S. dollar policy of naming and shaming surplus-running countries accumulating foreign exchange reserves does not seem to work. Three alternatives warrant consideration. First, the U.S. could reinstate its withholding tax on interest income received by non-residents and even add policy criteria to bilateral tax treaties. Second, the U.S. authorities could retaliate by selling dollars against the currencies of dollar-buying jurisdictions running chronic surpluses. However, either the withholding tax or such retaliatory foreign exchange intervention pose huge practical challenges. Third, the U.S. authorities could re-enter the foreign exchange market, making large-scale asset purchases in foreign currency when the dollar rises sharply against its average value. Such a policy would encourage private investment in U.S. traded goods and service production. The challenge is to set ex ante foreign exchange intervention rules to guide market participants’ expectations, even positioning them to do the authorities’ work.
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Silaban, Sella, Hilmi Aadilah, and Khairani Matondang. "Influence of Rupiah Exchange Rate on Indonesia’s Economic Growth: Literature Study." Journal of Business Management and Economic Development 1, no. 02 (May 29, 2023): 123–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.59653/jbmed.v1i02.48.
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In the international economy, the exchange rate has an important role as a transaction tool. Its existence clearly affects the economy of a country both nationally and internationally. In Indonesia, the rupiah exchange rate is pegged to the US dollar, because international trade is dominated by transactions in US dollars. The increase in the rupiah exchange rate caused the rupiah to depreciate against the US dollar. This study aims to determine how the effect of the rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia's economic growth every year. This research is a qualitative descriptive research through a review of literature studies originating from journals, books and sources of accurate information. From the review of literature studies it is known that the variable exchange rate of the rupiah against foreign currencies has a significant effect and has a negative sign. This is evidenced by the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the rupiah exchange rate. This means that when the rupiah exchange rate depreciates (the dollar appreciates), economic growth will decrease. And conversely if the rupiah exchange rate appreciates (the dollar depreciates) it will cause economic growth to increase.
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Damayanthi, Made Dewi, and I. Wayan Wenagama. "Pengaruh Kurs Dollar, Inflasi, Harga Terhadap Ekspor Kepiting Indonesia." E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana 11, no. 6 (July 12, 2022): 2305. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/eep.2022.v11.i06.p10.
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The fisheries subsector is second largest contributor to Indonesia's GDP in agricultural sector 2010-2013, supported by presence of export value of fishery products in 2008-2014 experiencing an increase. Crab exports rank third after shrimp and tuna export value. This study aims to determine the effect of US dollar exchange rate, foreign exchange, inflation, and prices on export value of crabs in Indonesia. This Research using time series data from 1980-2013 and analyzed by multiple linear regression. Results show exchange rate of US dollars, price of export crabs, inflation, and foreign exchange simultaneously have significant effect on crab exports. Partially the US dollar exchange rate and export crab prices have positive and significant effect on crab exports. Inflation have a negative and significant effect on crab exports. However, foreign exchange has negative and not significant effect on crab exports. Price of export crabs is has dominant effect on crab exports.
keyword: crab exports, dollar exchange rate, inflation, prices
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Zaalishvili1, Vakhtang, and Aleksandre Giorgidze2. "Mistake, Sales, Consumer Law." Journal of Contemporary Law 1, no. 1 (November 10, 2019): 215–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.31578/jcl.v1i1.41.
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R.B. has addressed to currency exchange office owned by “ -a” LLC, located in Tbilisi to exchange500 US dollars where the dollar was purchased “at first sight with the highest”4 exchange rate. Hehanded 500 USD to a woman, that worked at the currency exchange office who, in turn, gave him1020 GEL. R.B.'s expectation was to receive 1200 GEL. He protested instantly there, but he wasanswered that the currency exchange office was purchasing dollar for this price and since theoperator had already drawn a cheque, the money (500 USD) could not be returned.Neither R.B. agreed to take 1020 GEL, nor the operator was willing to return the exchanged amount.To prevent provocation and conflict, R.B. called Patrol Police, who confirmed that the "less" moneywas still on the spot and R.B. only after this took it. The Patrol Police claimed that they had manyanalogous calls for similar cases.R.B. demanded compensation of 180 GEL for material damages before the Court, because thetransaction was made by deceit.
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Chukwu Agwu, Ejem, and Ogbonna Udochukwu Godfrey. "Modeling Volatility and Daily Exchange Rate Movement in Nigeria." International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, no. 511 (November 25, 2019): 264–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.511.264.275.
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This study modeled volatility and daily exchange rate movement in Nigeria with daily exchange rate between Nigeria Naira and US Dollar from January 2, 2001 to May 20, 2019 collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The results of the estimated models revealed that conditional variance (volatility) has positive and significant relationship with exchange rate returns between Nigeria Naira and US Dollars, which corroborates the theory that predicts positive relationship between return and volatility for risk averse investors. Also found that exchange rate volatility between Naira / US Dollar is persistent. It was also discovered that goods news produces more volatility than bad news of equal magnitude. The researchers therefore suggested that the Central Bank of Nigeria should always proffer timely intervention to reduce the volatility persistence. This will go a long way to counteract or moderate the excess volatility between Naira and US Dollar transactions.
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McCauley, Robert N. "The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions." Atlantic Economic Journal 48, no. 4 (December 2020): 421–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11293-020-09692-0.
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Abstract Since the late 1950s, the rest of the world has come to use the dollar to an extent that justifies speaking of the dollar’s global domain. The rest of the world denominates much debt in U.S. dollars, extending U.S. monetary policy’s sway. In addition, in outstanding foreign exchange deals, the rest of the world has undertaken to pay still more in U.S. dollars: off-balance-sheet dollar debts buried in footnotes. Consistent with the scale of dollar debt, most of the world economic activity takes place in countries with currencies tied to or relatively stable against the dollar, forming a dollar zone much larger than the euro zone. Even though the dollar assets of the world (minus the United States) exceed dollar liabilities, corporate sector dollar debts seem to make dollar appreciation akin to a global tightening of credit. Since the 1960s, claims that the dollar’s global role suffers from instability and confers great benefits on the U.S. economy have attracted much support. However, evidence that demand for dollars from official reserve managers forces unsustainable U.S. current account or fiscal deficits is not strong. The so-called exorbitant privilege is small or shared. In 2008 and again in 2020, the Federal Reserve demonstrated a willingness and capacity to backstop the global domain of the dollar. Politics could constrain the Fed’s ability to backstop the growing share of the domain of the dollar accounted for by countries that are not on such friendly terms with the U.S.
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Bagus Gede Udiyana, Ida, Ni Luh Rita Siptiari, Ida Ayu Putu Ari Utari, I. Wayan Tantra, Ida Bagus Swaputra, and Ida Bagus Angga Brahmanta. "Inflation, Interest Rates and the Amount of Money Supply, Their Impact on Fluctuations of Rupiah Exchange Rate to the Us Dollar During the Pandemic of Covid-19." Journal Transnational Universal Studies 1, no. 11 (December 27, 2023): 946–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.58631/jtus.v1i11.69.
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This study aims to determine and analyze the effect of inflation, interest rates and money supply on fluctuations of rupiah exchange rate to the United States dollar during the pandemic of Covid-19. The inflation variable is analyzed using purchasing power parity theory based on differences in inflation of two countries, while the interest rate variable uses the International Fisher Effect Theory. The money supply variable is represented by M2 or the total money in circulation or in banks. The data used is secondary data for the period of January 2020 – December 2022, totaling of 36 months. Multiple linear regression, t test and F test is used to test the effect of dependent variables on independent variables simultaneously and partially, provided by Smart PLS 4.0 Software. The results showed that partially the inflation had a positive and insignificant effect on fluctuations of the rupiah exchange rate to the US dollar, the interest rate had a significant negative effect on fluctuations of the rupiah exchange rate to the US dollar, and the money supply had an insignificant negative effect on fluctuations of the rupiah exchange rate on US dollars. Simultaneously, the variables inflation, interest rates and money supply have a significant effect on fluctuations of the rupiah exchange rate to the US dollar.
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Mustaqim, Muhammad Irsyad, Saparuddin Mukhtar, and Tuty Sariwulan. "EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND NATIONAL INCOME TO RUPIAH THE AMERICAN DOLLARS IN 2006-2016." Econosains Jurnal Online Ekonomi dan Pendidikan 15, no. 2 (October 23, 2017): 240–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21009/econosains.0152.06.
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This research aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation and national income against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar. As for the data used in this research is secondary data, with this type of time series data in the period 2006-2016 obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The method of this research method using exposé facto. Data analysis techniques used in this research is the analysis of multiple regression. By using multiple regression analysis model, the output shows that interest rates (X 1) positive and significant effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Inflation rate (X 2) do not affect the exchange rate of the rupiah significantly to top u.s. dollars (Y). National income (X 3) a positive effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Of test results by looking at their significance value F = 0.000 then it can be said to be 0.05 < simultaneously interest rates, inflation and national income effect significant at α = 5% against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar in the year 2006-2016. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) acquired for 0.660 has a sense that the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar can be explained by the level of interest rates, inflation and national income amounted to 66% while the rest is explained by other factors that do not exist in the model for this research.
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Samir qızı Kərimli, Günay. "Relationship between cryptocurrency and rates." SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 10, no. 6 (June 27, 2022): 72–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.36719/2789-6919/10/72-76.
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Virtual kriptovalyuta olan bitkin rəqəmsal formata malik olan, texniki olaraq blokçeyn kimi ifadə edilən əməliyyatları əhatə edən və mərkəzi pul sisteminə daxil olmayan valyutadır. Tədqiqatda kriptovalyuta Bitcoin ilə valyuta məzənnələri arasındakı əlaqəni ortaya çıxarmaq hədəflənir. ABŞ Dolları ilə Avro, Yapon Yeni, İngilis Funtu, Avstraliya Dolları, Kanada Dolları, İsveçrə Frankı, Yuan Renminbi və İsveç Kronu məzənnələri ilə Bitcoin məzənnəsi arasındakı əlaqə, 3.02.2016- 04.10.2020 tarixləri arasındakı gündəlik məzənnələrə əsaslanaraq, struktur Qreqori və Hansen kointeqrasiyasını və Qrencer səbəb-nəticə analizini pozur. Təhlil nəticəsində müəyyən edilib ki, BTC/USD məzənnəsində struktur fasilələri 2017-cİ ilin aprel və dekabr aylarında baş verib. Bundan əlavə, tədqiqatda valyuta məzənnələrinin zaman silsiləsi arasında uzunmüddətli kointeqrasiya əlaqəsi, CNY/USD məzənnəsi ilə BTC/USD məzənnəsi arasında isə birtərəfli müsbət səbəb əlaqəsi müəyyən edilmişdir. Açar sözlər: kriptovalyuta, bitcoin, valyuta məzənnəsi, struktur fasilə, zaman seriyasi analizi Gunay Samir Karimli Relationship between cryptocurrency and rates Abstract Bitcoin, a virtual and cryptocurrency, is a digital currency that encompasses transactions, technically referred to as blockchain, and is not part of the central monetary system. The study aims to uncover the link between the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and exchange rates. The relationship between the US dollar and the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc, the yuan renminbi and the Swedish krona and the Bitcoin exchange rate, based on the daily exchange rates between 3.02.2016 and 04.10.2020, and Grenzer violates cause-and-effect analysis. The analysis revealed that structural breaks in the BTC / USD exchange rate occurred in April and December 2017. In addition, the study identified a long-term cointegration relationship between exchange rates over time, and a one-way positive causal relationship between the CNY / USD exchange rate and the BTC / USD exchange rate. Key words: cryptocurrency, bitcoin, exchange rate, structural break, time series analysis
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Ubid, Basim Khamees. "Analyzing and Measuring the Relationship between Public Spending and the Parallel Exchange Rate in the Iraqi Economy for the Period 2004-2022." International Academic Journal of Accounting and Financial Management 9, no. 1 (July 7, 2022): 01–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.9756/iajafm/v9i1/iajafm0901.
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Public spending represents the government’s financial leverage and has a significant impact on real and monetary economic variables, and one of these effects is the effect of public spending on the exchange rate as an important monetary variable for monetary policy, As we know that public spending in Iraq is financed from oil revenues sold in US dollars, and the Ministry of Finance converts the US dollar into Iraqi dinars to finance the government's need to spend within the requirements and obligations of the state's general budget, And converting the US dollar into Iraqi dinars has an impact on the parallel exchange market, even if there is a contractual exchange rate between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq to convert the budget dollar into Iraqi dinars. However, the impact of public spending on reserves makes financial shocks have a significant impact on the exchange rate. The researcher believes that there is a reciprocal relationship between the effect of public spending on the exchange rate and the impact of the exchange rate on public spending because the conversion compass between the dollar and the dinar leaves great effects on public spending in the state’s general budget, and this is what the researcher achieved by using modern standard software to discover the nature of the relationship between public spending and the price of Exchange in the parallel market with realistic monthly data taken from the official website of the Central Bank of Iraq.
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Schilling, Linda M., and Harald Uhlig. "Currency Substitution under Transaction Costs." AEA Papers and Proceedings 109 (May 1, 2019): 83–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20191017.
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We consider a setting where agents can choose between two currencies to conduct their goods purchases. The usage of either currency comes with currency-specific transactions costs. For example, purchasing some goods with cryptocurrencies rather than dollars is easier and may avoid taxes. We explore an extension of Schilling-Uhlig (2019), allowing for asymmetry in transaction costs as well as dollar-bitcoin exchange fees. Agents alternate in their role as buyers and sellers, necessitating currency. A central bank steers the dollar inflation path, while bitcoins are in fixed supply. We characterize the nonstochastic equilibrium and the resulting exchange rate dynamics.
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LIEW, VENUS KHIM-SEN, AHMAD ZUBAIDI BAHARUMSHAH, and KIAN-PING LIM. "ON SINGAPORE DOLLAR–U.S. DOLLAR AND PURCHASING POWER PARITY." Singapore Economic Review 49, no. 01 (April 2004): 71–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590804000809.
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This study re-examines the validity of the relationship between the Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and relative prices using the latest econometric methodologies that account for non-linearity. Among others, this study finds Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR)-type non-linear mean-reverting adjustment process of the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar rate towards the consumer price index ratio. Unlike previous findings of a linear cointegration relationship between the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and consumer price index ratio, this study shows that the relationship is in fact non-linear in nature. The major economic implications of our findings are: (1) policy makers need to take non-linearity into consideration in their policy decisions; (2) the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is able to maintain the macroeconomic equilibrium despite the authority's strong dollar policy; and (3) one should keep track of Singapore's monetary policy and other innovations in aggregate demand in order to closely monitor the movement of the Singapore exchange rate.
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ORHAN, Mehmet, and Halil Ä°brahim ÇELÄ°KEL . "The Spillover Effects of Fed’s Policies with Emphasis to the Fragile Five." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 6, no. 12 (December 30, 2014): 1011–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v6i12.557.
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Since the Bretton Woods Agreement, the U.S. dollar has played the role of dominant global currency. As a result, the Federal Reserve Bank has many privileges such as the ability to run trade deficits without foreign exchange reserves. In the world, foreign exchange rates of currencies are quoted against the dollar, and majority of currency trading involves the dollar. Besides, international trade in primary commodities, such as oil, wheat, gold and coffee are bought and sold in U.S. dollar. The central banks of countries hold major positions of their international reserves in dollars. Any changes in its interest rates automatically alter the revenues of all world assets. With deregulated financial markets, the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve Bank’s decisions have increased. In this paper, we examine the impacts of Federal Reserve Bank policies over the Fragile Five that is a sub group of the weaker emerging markets namely Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. We are mainly focusing on the consequences of changes in Fed’s policies on the fragile five’s basic indicators; exchange rate, interest rate, and the stock exchange indices. All Fragile Five currencies have been depreciated by about 10 to 25% after the Fed tapering decisions. In addition we test for mean and volatility spillover of Wall Street on stock exchange indices of the Fragile Five in GARCH in mean framework and document the existence of such spillovers in almost all cases.
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Williamson, John. "The dollar/euro exchange rate." Économie internationale 100, no. 4 (December 1, 2004): 51–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/ecoi.100.0051.
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KIANI, KHURSHID M. "FORECASTING FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE RISK PREMIUM IN SINGAPORE DOLLAR/US DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE MARKET." Singapore Economic Review 54, no. 02 (June 2009): 283–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590809003288.
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In this research, monthly forward exchange rates are evaluated for possible existence of time varying risk premia in Singapore forward foreign exchange rates against US dollar. The time varying risk premia in Singapore dollar is modeled using non-Gaussian signal plus noise models that encompass non-normality and time varying volatility. The results from signal plus noise models show statistically significant evidence of time varying risk premium in Singapore forward exchange rates although we failed to reject the hypotheses of no risk premium in the series. The results from Gaussian versions of these models are not much different and are in line with Wolff (1987) who also used the same methodology in Gaussian settings. Our results show statistically significant evidence of volatility clustering in Singapore forward exchange rates. The results from Gaussian signal plus noise models also show statistically significant evidence of volatility clustering and non-normality in Singapore forward foreign exchange rates. Additional tests on the series show that exclusion of conditional heteroskedasticity from the signal plus noise models leads to false statistical inferences.
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Tenkovskaya, Lyudmila I. "Forecast of the USD/RUB currency pair in the short term." Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika, no. 59 (2022): 212–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.17223/19988648/59/13.
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The article provides a forecast of the USD/RUB currency pair based on the equation of a linear downward trend. The aim of the research is forecasting the USD/RUB currency pair to determine the effectiveness of Russia's foreign economic activity and the real incomes of the country's population in the future, which makes the research relevant. The research is carried out using the following scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, monographic (description of Russian macroeconomics), statistical (identification of trends, calculation of correlation coefficients, graphic). The research is based on statistical data on the economic indicators of the Russian Federation: the USD/RUB currency pair, exports, imports, trade balance, the consumer price index, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the M2 monetary aggregate, the US dollar index, the Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX). The USD/RUB currency pair is the main macroeconomic indicator influenced by Russian foreign economic factors: trade balance, inflation, key interest rate, money supply, US dollar index, Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX). In the short term, the connection of the USD/RUB currency pair with the presented macroeconomic indicators has weakened. Therefore, the forecast of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar should be made on the basis of the trend equation. It has been established that, in the short term, the USD/RUB currency pair has the potential to decline, which is negative for exporters, but positive for the real incomes of the country's population. The sharp decline in the USD/RUB currency pair in recent months has been caused by the regulatory and legal currency regulation in the Russian Federation. It implies the following measures: restrictions on the issuance of US dollars from foreign currency deposits and accounts of citizens, on the sale of US dollars by banks to the public, on the transfer of US dollars abroad; high commissions for the purchase of US dollars on the stock exchange; restrictions on short sales of currencies on the stock exchange; mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters; the use of Russian rubles in settlements for natural gas supplied to unfriendly countries; tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The cancellation of these regulatory and legal measures of currency regulation will return the long-term trend of weakening of the Russian ruble against the US dollar.
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Ding, Ding, and Yannick Timmer. "Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing." International Finance Discussion Paper, no. 1378 (August 2023): 1–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2023.1378.
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In this paper, we estimate exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. Both the bilateral exchange rate and the U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to tourism origin countries are important drivers of tourism flows. The U.S. dollar exchange rate is more important for tourism destination countries with higher U.S. dollar borrowing, pointing toward a complementarity between U.S. dollar pricing and financing. Country-specific dominant currencies (CSDCs) play only a minor role on average but are important for tourism-dependent countries and those with a high concentration of foreign tourists. Consistent with dominant currency pricing, we also find that local hotel prices do increase strongly when the domestic currency depreciates against the U.S. dollar. The importance of the U.S. dollar exchange rate represents a strong piece of evidence of dominant currency pricing (DCP) in the international trade of services. The results suggest that the benefits of exchange rate flexibility for tourism-dependent countries may be weaker than previously thought and that a broad appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a significant decline in tourism flows globally.
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Sugirtha, R., and Dr M. Babu. "CO- Integration Approach Study of Crude Oil Prices and USD/ INR." Restaurant Business 118, no. 6 (June 15, 2019): 140–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.26643/rb.v118i6.8004.
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The crude oil price and US dollar/INR influence the value of Indian rupee as well as values of currencies of other countries . Over the past decades, oil price and US dollar dominate the overall global markets. The crude oil price and US dollars instability bond with the economic growth and welfare of a country. Hence the study examined the volatility of crude oil price and US dollar in the Indian commodity market, during the study period from 2009 to 2018. US dollar price were collected from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and crude oil price were collected from Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). To check the volatility, the following statistical tools namely descriptive statistic, ADF and GARCH (1,1) model were used. Based on the result, crude price recorded low volatility compared to U.S dollar price during the study period.
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Sugiartiningsih, Sugiartiningsih. "Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Bath terhadap Dolar serta Suku Bunga Indonesia terhadap Nilai Ekspor Indonesia ke Thailand Periode 2000-2019." WELFARE Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi 2, no. 2 (January 21, 2022): 109–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.37058/wlfr.v2i2.3629.
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This study aims to determine the effect of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, bath against the US dollar and Indonesian interest rates on Indonesian exports to Thailand for the period 2000-2019. The research methodology uses a multiple regression model of the relationship between the two Indonesian exchange rates and interest rates with the value of Indonesia's exports to Thailand. The use of data starting in 2000 with the reason that post-reform is the dynamics of Indonesia in responding to economic globalization. The 2019 limit is to provide a real picture of the Indonesian economy before it was hit by the Covid-19 outbreak. Based on the calculation results, it was found that there was a positive relationship between the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar and the value of Indonesia's exports to Thailand due to the high purchasing power of Thailand as a result of the decline in the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. On the other hand, the bath exchange rate which tends to appreciate against the US dollar actually increases the value of Indonesia's exports to Thailand. Likewise, a decrease in Indonesia's interest rates has the potential to increase economic productivity in the real sector and in turn increase the value of Indonesia's exports to Thailand. However, the amount of investment during the period studied was not optimal due to lack of trust in Indonesia that caused the results of the test conducted were not significant.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh nilai tukar rupiah dan bath terhadap dolar AS serta suku bunga Indonesia terhadap ekspor Indonesia ke Thailand periode 2000-2019. Metodologi penelitian menggunakan model regresi berganda hubungan kedua nilai tukar dan suku bunga Indonesia dengan nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Thailand. Penggunaan data mulai tahun 2000 dengan alasan pasca reformasi merupakan dinamisasi Indonesia merespon globalisasi ekonomi. Batasan tahun 2019 untuk memberikan gambaran riil perekonomian Indonesia mengalami pandemi Covid-19. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diperoleh hubungan positif nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS dengan nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Thailand karena tingginya daya beli Thailand sebagai dampak penurunan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Sebaliknya nilai tukar bath yang cenderung apresiasi terhadap dolar AS justru meningkatkan nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Thailand. Demikian halnya dengan penurunan sukubunga Indonesia berpotensi meningkatkan produktivitas ekonomi di sektor riil dan pada gilirannya meningkatkan nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Thailand. Namun demikian, besarnya penanaman modal selama periode yang diteliti belum optimal karena kurangnya kepercayaan terhadap Indonesia sehingga berdampak hasil uji yang tidak signifikan.
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I.U., Christogonus, Lamin B.J., Mark N.U., Emwinloghosa K.G., and Chimezie S.N. "Modeling and Forecasting Nigerian Naira/US Dollar and The Gambian Dalasi/US Dollar Exchange Rates: A Comparative Study." African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies 6, no. 1 (February 2, 2023): 12–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.52589/ajmss-xhldl3xg.
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This paper compares the predictive performance of time series forecast methods on the Nigerian Naira/US Dollar (NGN/USD) and The Gambian Dalasi/US Dollar (GMD/USD) exchange rates. The forecast methods—Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt’s Linear Trend, and Damped Holt—were applied to the annual Nigerian Naira and Gambian Dalasi against the US Dollar for the period 1960–2020. The best model for forecasting exchange rates in both countries was selected based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE). The findings in this study revealed that both Naira/US Dollar and Gambian Dalasi/US Dollar exchange rate distributions are positively skewed and ARIMA (0,2,2) model was selected as the most appropriate model for forecasting both exchange rates. The results also showed that by 2030, the Nigerian Naira/US Dollar exchange rate will rise by 37.06 percent while the Gambian Dalasi/US Dollar will rise by 23.18 percent. This study suggests that both countries should adopt tighter fiscal, monetary, and supply-side policies.
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Nurjanah, Rahma, and Candra Mustika. "The influence of imports, foreign exchange reserves, external debt, and interest rates on the currency exchange rates against the United States Dollar in Southeast Asia Countries." Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah 9, no. 4 (October 31, 2021): 365–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v9i4.12706.
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This study aims to analyze the effect of imports, foreign exchange reserves, foreign debt, and interest rates on the currency exchange rates against the United States Dollar in Southeast Asia countries. The study results found that from 2010 to 2017, the currency exchange rates against the United States Dollar in Southeast Asian countries tended to weaken (depreciate). The highest growth in the exchange rate against the United States dollar was in Indonesia, while the lowest was in Singapore. Foreign exchange reserves negatively affect foreign debt, and imports positively affect countries' exchange rates in the Southeast Asia region against the United States dollar. On the other hand, interest rates do not show a significant effect.
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Wu, Maoguo, and Yue Yu. "The Impact of Australian Consumer Price Index on the Exchange Rate of Australian Dollar - Chinese Renminbi." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 13, no. 22 (August 31, 2017): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2017.v13n22p12.
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This paper investigates the impact of Australian consumer price index on Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi exchange rate. As two major economies in Asia Pacific, China and Australia are conducting ever-increasing volume of economic transactions. Massive Chinese investment, particularly in properties, has caused steady increase in Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. Recent slowdown of Chinese economic growth and Chinese investment in Australia caused both Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi to fall significantly. This paper utilizes data from May 2005 to January 2016 and empirically tests the relation between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. In compliance with classical theories of exchange rates, empirical results find that a negative relation exists between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi.
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Tsuji, Chikashi. "Recent Comovements of the Yen-US Dollar Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in Japan." World Journal of Business and Management 1, no. 2 (October 25, 2015): 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/wjbm.v1i2.8461.
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<p>This paper examines the recent relations of the yen/US dollar exchange rate and stock prices in Japan. Using bivariate Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, we derive several interesting findings as follows. First, 1) our analyses by Bayesian VAR models clarify that recently, the daily lags of the yen/dollar exchange rate series statistically significantly explain the evolution of the Nikkei 225, Nikkei 500, Japan Securities Dealers Association Quotation (JASDAQ), and Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) Core 30 stock index prices in Japan. Second, 2) our impulse response analyses reveal that Japanese stock prices clearly respond to the yen/dollar exchange rate changes in the recent years whilst the exchange rate changes little respond to the stock prices in Japan. As above our results demonstrate, recently, the past yen/dollar exchange rate time-series much more affect the evolution of the Japanese stock prices whilst the past Japanese stock price series little affect the yen/dollar exchange rate changes. Moreover, 3) analyzing the time-varying correlation coefficients between the yen/dollar exchange rate changes and Japanese stock returns, we also find the large increases in the contemporaneous correlations between the exchange rate and stock returns in the recent years in Japan.</p>
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Kang, Seok Kyu. "A Study on the Efficiency in Korea Foreign Exchange Market." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 14, no. 2 (November 30, 2006): 79–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-02-2006-b0004.
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This study is to examine the three theme of the eπiciency of Korea foreign exchange market including the unbiasedness testing, the relative efficiency estimates, and the information spillover efficiency. Data using the analysis 81’e won-dollar spot and futures in domestic and won-dollar forward in offshore. i.e.. New York and Singapore NDF (non-delivery forward). The empirical results are summarized as follows: First. the efficient market or unbiasedness expectations hypothesis is not rejected in the won-dollar currency futures market apart from offshore New York and Singapore NDF markets. This indicates that the won-dollar futures price is likely to be an accurate indicator of future won-dollar spot prices without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Second. the findings suggest the domestic won-dollar futures market is 13.58% efficient. the Singapore offshore won-dollar NDF market is 11.38% efficient. and the New York offshore won-dollar NDF market is 2.68% efficient. This indicates that the domestic won-dollar futures market is more efficient than the offshore won-dollar NDF market. It is therefore possible to conclude that the domestic currency futures price is a relatively successful predictor of the future spot price. Third. the findings suggest the information spillover exists between domestic won-dollar spot/futures market and offshore won-dollar New York NDF market in both direction. This indicates that the two markets are efficiently linked.
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Fatahillah, Fatahillah, Devi Andriyani, Mutia Rahmah, and Syarifah Syafira. "EFFECT OF RUBBER PRODUCTION, DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION ON RUBBER EXPORTS IN INDONESIA." Journal of Malikussaleh Public Economics 5, no. 1 (August 5, 2022): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.29103/jmpe.v5i1.8134.
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This study was conducted in Indonesia and aimed to examine the effect of rubber production, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation on rubber exports. The data analysis method used was multiple linear regression. The results showed that rubber production and inflation positively and significantly influenced rubber exports, while the dollar exchange rate negatively and significantly influenced rubber exports. Simultaneously, rubber production, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation positively and significantly influenced rubber exports in Indonesia, and the magnitude (R^2) of the effect of the amount of production, dollar exchange rate, and inflation on rubber exports was 0.5979 (59.79%)
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Murtala, Murtala, AyiHerfendi AyiHerfendi, and Syarifah Syafira. "Pengaruh Ba’i Sawit Terhadap Tingkat Kesejahteraan Petani Kecamatan Kuta Makmur Kabupaten Aceh Utara." Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Unimal 6, no. 1 (May 31, 2023): 38. http://dx.doi.org/10.29103/jepu.v6i1.12297.
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This study was conducted in Indonesia and aimed to examine the effect of rubber production, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation on rubber exports. The data analysis method used was multiple linear regression. The results showed that rubber production and inflation positively and significantly influenced rubber exports, while the dollar exchange rate negatively and significantly influenced rubber exports. Simultaneously, rubber production, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation positively and significantly influenced rubber exports in Indonesia, and the magnitude (R^2) of the effect of the amount of production, dollar exchange rate, and inflation on rubber exports was 0.5979 (59.79%)
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Choi, Nam-Jin. "An Analysis Factors in Exchange Rate Volatility and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Real Economy." Northeast Asia Economic Association Of Korea 34, no. 2 (August 31, 2022): 71–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.52819/jnes.2022.34.2.71.
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This study empirically analyzes factors that can affect the volatility of the domestic won/dollar exchange rate, which advocates a small open economy, focusing on the United States, a representative key currency country. In addition, the effect of exchange rate volatility on the domestic real economy was analyzed. First, the EGARCH model is estimated in order to extract won/dollar exchange rate volatility. The results show that there is a volatility clustering phenomenon in the won/dollar exchange rate volatility. Next, factors of exchange rate volatility are estimated through the regression analysis. The estimated results indicate that variables of the US currency amount and Korea-US interest rate spread show significant amounts of coefficients, and each variable increase causes the increase of won/dollar exchange rate volatility. This explains that the expansionary monetary policy of the US implemented for domestic business recovery raises won/dollar exchange rate volatility through direct currency channel and portfolio channel. On the other hand, the growth rate of the US shows significant negative coefficient, and the increase of relevant variables leads to the reduction of won/dollar exchange rate volatility. In the results of estimating the SVAR model in order to check the effects of exchange rate volatility on real economy of Korea, the shock of exchange rate volatility increase reduces trades between Korea and the US while limiting the growth rate of Korea. Through the above analysis results, it is expected that unexpected monetary policy(austerity monetary policy) of major key currency countries including the US might expand the won/dollar exchange rate volatility, which could function as an element to restrict domestic real economy.
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AlDiab, Taisier F., Marwan M. Zoubi, and Phillip W. Thornton. "The Effect Of Changes In The Dollar Foreign Exchange Rate On Stock Returns Of Multinational Corporations." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 10, no. 4 (September 22, 2011): 142. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v10i4.5916.
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<span>Exchange rate movements are considered to be one of the key factors affecting the operating results of multinational corporations (MNC). Several studies have examined the effect of changes in dollar exchange rates on the stock prices of MNC. The results of these studies have been inconclusive about the effects of changes in the dollar exchange rate on the stock prices of companies with significant overseas operations. This study extends previous research by testing the impact of changes in the dollar exchange rate on security returns of MNC using an event study methodology. The results suggest that changes in dollar exchange rates have little or no impact on the stock returns of MNC.</span>
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Shin, Dong-Hoon, Seonhyeon Kim, Hojoon Kim, and Daehwi Jung. "Psychological Barrier in Foreign Exchange Rate and Implied Volatility in Currency Exchange Option." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 22, no. 2 (May 31, 2014): 309–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-02-2014-b0006.
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In this paper, we examine the existence of the psychological barriers in three foreign exchange rate, won/dollar, euro/dollar, yen/dollar, and test that the psychological barriers effect to the implied volatilities of the FX options. For each exchange rate, the existence and spots of the psychological barriers are estimated from roughly 10 years data for each currency rate, and GARCH (1, 1) model was applied to observe the momentum effect about the mean and variance of the conditional returns, and the implied volatility of the FX-options for each currency rate near the psychological barriers. Since this effect is more clearly observed on the implied volatility data, this fact supports that psychological barriers affects to the price of the FX-options.
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Susilo, Ignatia Bintang Filia Dei, Dian Pujiatma Vera Subchanifa, Risna Amalia Hamzah, and Dwi Hastuti Lestari Komarlina. "Efisiensi Pasar Valuta Asing di Indonesia: Analisis Empiris." WELFARE Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi 3, no. 1 (September 14, 2022): 81–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.37058/wlfr.v3i1.4794.
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This study will examine the efficiency of foreign exchange market in Indonesia is it efficient in the weak form or semi-strong form, and see its implications in Indonesia. This study used data of the Rupiah’s spot market exchange rate with US Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro, Singapore Dollar (SGD), and Japanese Yen (JPY), from March 2017 to March 2022, taken from Bank Indonesia. Weak form of market efficiency is analyzed using the unit root test to determine whether the data follows a random walk or not. Semi-strong form efficiency is analyzed using cointegration test, Engle-Granger, Johansen, and variance decomposition analysis. Results indicate that the foreign exchange market in Indonesia has weak form. Players in the market can still use fundamental analysis to determine the next exchange rate movement in order for players to make a profit, which is more relevant to consider than historical data.Studi ini akan menelaah efisiensi pasar valuta asing di Indonesia. Apakah efisien dalam bentuk lemah atau semi-kuat, serta melihat bagaimana implikasinya di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah nilai tukar Rupiah dengan mata uang lima negara lain; Dolar Amerika (USD), Dolar Australia (AUD), Euro, Dolar Singapura (SGD), dan Yen Jepang (JPY), di pasar spot periode Maret 2017 – Maret 2022 yang diambil dari Bank Indonesia. Bentuk efisiensi pasar lemah dianalisis mengunakan unit root test untuk mengetahui apakah data mengalami random walk atau tidak. Adanya unit root mengindikasikan bahwa perilaku data tidak stasioner. Bentuk efisiensi semi-kuat dianalisis menggunakan uji kointegrasi, Engle-Granger, Johansen, dan variance decomposition analysis. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pasar valuta asing di Indonesia termasuk dalam bentuk efisien lemah. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa pemain di pasar valuta asing masih dapat menggunakan analisis fundamental yang lebih relevan sebagai pertimbangan dibandingkan data historis untuk menentukan pergerakan kurs selanjutnya agar pemain memperoleh keuntungan.
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ZHANG, ZHICHAO. "REAL EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOUR UNDER HONG KONG'S LINKED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION." International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 05, no. 01 (February 2002): 55–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219024902001341.
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In a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate model, this study investigates the movements of the real exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar under the currency board arrangement from 1984 to 1998. Cointegration analysis based on Johansen approach is applied to derive the equilibrium real exchange rate in behavioural sense for the Hong Kong dollar. Evidence shows that during the period under investigation, the Hong Kong dollar was initially undervalued when the currency board arrangement was installed. It moved in closer line with the equilibrium rate after 1985 and generally remained moderately undervalued until 1993. Then the currency became overvalued following the upsurge of domestic demand and lingered into 1995 before an adjustment took place latter that year. But except for a few quarters, the overvaluation was not substantial and chronic. On the whole, the Hong Kong dollar seemed to have performed well in the period under examination. In most cases, the currency was actually undervalued. When the Asian financial crisis broke out, the currency was in effect already in a process of adjustment, depreciating form an overvalued level.
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Chung, Kyuil, Hail Park, and Hyun Song Shin. "Mitigating Systemic Spillovers from Currency Hedging." National Institute Economic Review 221 (July 2012): R44—R56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011222100115.
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Korea has been a forerunner in incorporating macroprudential policies to mitigate the vulnerabilities from currency crises that can turn into a more generalised liquidity crisis. This paper examines longer-term design issues for a more resilient and stable financial system that could be expected to complement the existing macroprudential measures in achieving a more stable financial system. In particular, the paper examines the rationale and mechanics of a new public financial institution, provisionally called the Exchange Stabilisation and Guarantee Corporation (ESGC) whose main role is to buy dollar forward positions from Korean exporting companies who wish to hedge the currency exposure from long-term export orders. The ESGC is intended to mitigate the risks arising from the reliance on the role of the banking sector in providing currency hedging services to exporters. Rapid growth of short-term foreign currency denominated debt has been the result of banks receiving forward dollar sales by exporters, and then hedging the long dollar position by borrowing short in dollars. A public institution that can buy dollars forward, but which is designed so that there is no need to hedge by taking short dollar debt, can mitigate the rapid increase in short-term dollar debt in booms.
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Mispiyanti, Mispiyanti, and Ika Neni Kristanti. "ANALISIS PENGARUH PDRB, INFLASI, NILAI KURS, DAN TENAGA KERJA TERHADAP PENERIMAAN PAJAK PADA KABUPATEN CILACAP, BANYUMAS, PURBALINGGA, KEBUMEN DAN PURWOREJO." Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi dan Keuangan 7, no. 1 (January 13, 2018): 23–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.32639/jiak.v7i1.159.
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Taxes serve to reduce inequalities among the population and thus demand substantial government expenditures for state financing which one of the sources is tax revenue. Butmany factors affect the high low tax revenue. This study aims to determine partially whether the GDP, inflation, the exchange rate of rupiah against US Dollar and labor have a positive effect on tax revenues and also to determine whether GRDP, inflation, the exchange rate of rupiah against US Dollar and labor in together have a positive effect on tax revenue. This study uses data realization of tax revenue, GDP data, inflation data, and employment data in the districts of Cilacap, Banyumas, Purbalingga, Kebumen, Purworejo as well as data on the Rupiah exchange rate against US Dollar. The results show that partially PDRB and labor positively affect the tax revenue while inflation and the exchange rate of rupiah against US Dollar have no positive effect on tax revenue. In together the variables PDRB, inflation, exchange rate and labor, significantly affect the variable tax revenue.
Keywords: tax revenue, GRDP, inflation, US Dollar exchange rate, labor
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Tsuji, Chikashi. "Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations between REITs, Exchange Rates, and Equities in Japan." Accounting and Finance Research 10, no. 4 (September 26, 2021): 13. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/afr.v10n4p13.
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This paper investigates return transmission, volatility spillovers, and dynamic correlations between the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) index, the Nikkei 225 index, and the yen/dollar exchange rate. As a result, we find many new findings and these all show our significant contributions as follows. First, there is return transmission from the Nikkei 225 to the TSE REIT index. Second, there is bidirectional return transmission between the Nikkei 225 and the yen/dollar exchange rate. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between the Nikkei 225 and the TSE REIT index. Fourth, there are volatility spillovers from the Nikkei 225 to the yen/dollar exchange rate. Fifth, dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between TSE REIT returns and Nikkei 225 returns are not low. Moreover, DCCs between Nikkei 225 returns and yen/dollar exchange rate changes are not high. Furthermore, DCCs between TSE REIT returns and yen/dollar exchange rate changes are quite low. These our new findings shall be useful for not only deepening our understanding of financial markets but also our related future research.
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Hapsari, Pamela Dwi, and Melti Roza Adry. "PENGARUH VARIABEL DOMESTIK DAN GLOBAL TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH." Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 1, no. 2 (July 9, 2019): 341. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/jkep.v1i2.6176.
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This study aims to find out how the influence of domestic and global variables on changes in the exchange rate of the rupiah per US dollar. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series from 2008: Q1 to 2018: Q3, with documentation data collection techniques and library studies obtained from relevant institutions and agencies. The variables used are Exchange Rates of Rp/USD (Y), Indonesian Economic Growth (X1), Indonesian Interest Rates (X2), American Economic Growth (X3) and American Interest Rates (X4). The research methods used are: (1) Ordinary Last Square (OLS), (2) Classical Assumption Test. The results of the study show that (1) Indonesian Economic Growth has a negative and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate per US dollar. (2) Indonesian interest rates do not have a significant influence on the rupiah exchange rate per US dollar. (3) American Economic Growth has a positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate per US dollar. (4) American interest rates have a positive effect on the rupiah exchange rate per US dollar.
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Mohamed, Azali. "EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENTS IN ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES." Labuan Bulletin of International Business and Finance (LBIBF) 3 (April 17, 2016): 11–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.51200/lbibf.v3i.1424.
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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the exchange rate misalignments for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand before the currency crisis. By employing the sticky-price monetary exchange rate model in the environment of vector error-correction, the results indicate that the Indonesia rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Philippines peso and Singapore dollar were overvalued before the currency crisis while Thai baht was undervalued on the eve of the crisis. However, they suffered modest misalignment. Therefore, little evidence of exchange misalignment is found to exist in the second quarter of 1997. In particular, Indonesia rupiah, Malaysia ringgit, Philippines peso and Singapore dollar were only overvalued about 1 to 4 percent against US dollar while the Thai baht was only 2 percent undervalued against US dollar.
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Quang My, Nguyen, and Mustafa Sayim. "The Impact of Economic Factors on the Foreign Exchange Rates between USA and Four Big Emerging Countries: China, India, Brazil and Mexico." International Finance and Banking 3, no. 1 (March 28, 2016): 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ifb.v3i1.9108.
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This study examines the impact of macro-economic factors on the foreign exchange rates between USA and four big emerging countries: India, Mexico, Brazil and China for the period of 2005 to 2014. This study uses Enter and Stepwise multiple regression methods to investigate the impact of market fundamental on the exchange rates. The empirical findings reveal that the macro-economic factors significantly predict and influence the exchange rates between USD/CNY (US dollar/Chinese yuan), USD/INR (US dollar/Indian rupee), USD/BRL (US dollar/ Brazilian real), and USD/MNX (US dollar/Mexican pesos). It is crucial to emphasize that the macroeconomic policies have to be implemented in order to stabilize and reduce the exchange rates volatilities.
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Bataineh, Khaled. "USD Exchange Rate Cycles Using Developed and Developing Currencies and Risk Factors." Journal of Advances in Humanities Research 1, no. 1 (July 28, 2022): 42–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.56868/jadhur.v1i1.10.
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This paper predicts the exchange rates cyclical for US dollar [forecast two states for exchange rates; appreciation and depreciation] through using developing and developed currencies along with two risk factors (TED spreads and Inflation). Probity and logit models along with the principal component analysis and factor analysis are used to retain the most powerful components and factors. The empirical findings reveal that risk factors are not key factors in determining the exchange rates' cyclical behavior for the US dollar. Furthermore, the Sterling Pound is the only variable that has a consistent result that is more likely to cause appreciation for the US dollar exchange rate using all types of regressions. In addition, Renminbi shows inconsistent effects between different regressions; using OLS is less likely to cause appreciation for the US dollar exchange rate. By contrast, using Logit and Probit regressions is more likely to cause appreciation for the US dollar exchange rate. On the other hand, principal component analysis and factor analysis show that for all currencies we should retain two components and factors to be able to explain around 80% of the variation in exchange rate cyclical.
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Wang, Kuan-Min. "CAN GOLD EFFECTIVELY HEDGE RISKS OF EXCHANGE RATE?" Journal of Business Economics and Management 14, no. 5 (November 6, 2013): 833–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2012.670133.
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This study tests whether gold can effectively hedge exchange rate risks. We take into account the asymmetric characteristic of exchange rate fluctuations and use the dynamic panel threshold model in order to select gold prices in major gold-related currencies in the world: the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the euro, the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the South African rand, and the British pound. Using monthly data from January 1999 to January 2010, with lagged one-period exchange rate returns (US dollar depreciation rate) as the threshold variable, the estimation results suggest that there are two thresholds at –7.5% and –3.7%. These can be divided into regime 1 (exchange rate returns ≤ –7.5%), regime 2 (–7.5% < exchange rate returns ≤ –3.7%), and regime 3 (exchange rate returns > –3.7%). Regarding the effectiveness of gold hedging, regime 2 is higher than is regime 3. The risk hedging effect of regime 1 is not significant because it might be caused by the excessive devaluation of the US dollar in the short-term and the overshooting of the exchange rate adjustment, making gold unable to hedge the devaluation risks of the US dollar.
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van Hoek, Taco H. "Explaining mark/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates in the 1980s." Economics Letters 38, no. 4 (April 1992): 467–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(92)90035-w.
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Karfakis, Costas, and Anthony Phipps. "Modeling the Australian Dollar-US Dollar Exchange Rate Using Cointegration Techniques." Review of International Economics 7, no. 2 (May 1999): 265–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00162.
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Ali, Md Liakat, and Sheikh F. Rahman. "Influence Of Australian Coal Export On A$/US$ Exchange Rate: A Longitudinal Study." International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER) 11, no. 4 (March 21, 2012): 397. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/iber.v11i4.6876.
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This paper investigates the contribution of Australian coal export to determine the exchange rate of Australian dollar with the US dollar. The quarterly data of Australian coal export and the Australian dollar exchange rate from 1992-2009 are employed to measure the influence of Australian coal export on A$/US$ exchange rate. This study finds that the Australian coal export has a positive relationship with the exchange rate of A$/US$ and their relationship is becoming stronger. The findings of this research suggest that the volume of Australian coal export contributes about 8% to determine the exchange rate of A$/US$ between the period of 1992-2009. The results of this analysis confirm that for each one million tonnes export increase of Australian coal, the Australian dollar value against the US$ increases by 0.002450 USD.
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Komolov, O. O. "The role of the dollar and the trend of de-dollarization of the world economy in the new conditions." Economic Revival of Russia, no. 2 (76) (2023): 93–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2-76-93-109.
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The paper is devoted to the analysis of the role of the dollar in the world economy and its formation as a world reserve currency. Based on the methodology of the school of world-system analysis (J. Arrighi, S. Amin, I. Wallerstein, R.S. Dzarazov), the author reveals the mechanism for using the dollar as one of the instruments of unequal exchange between the center and the periphery of the economy within the American systemic capital accumulation cycle. Based on a comprehensive empirical analysis, an assessment is made of the trends in the de-dollarization of the world economy in the 21st century. It was found that despite the devastating consequences of the global crisis of 2007–2009. caused by the hypertrophied development of the financial sector of the US economy during the global crisis, the dollar retained a key role in the international reserves of states, in trade and exchange operations in the world economy. In particular, the Russian economy, despite the statements of the authorities about moving towards abandoning the dollar, nevertheless remained highly dependent on it, only partially replacing US dollars with the euro. Real de-dollarization 2022-2023 in Russia became a necessary measure for business, and was associated with the partial blocking of Russian correspondent accounts in Western banks.
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Komolov, O. O. "The Global Role of the Dollar and Trends in the De-dollarization of the World Economy in the New Conditions." Economic Revival of Russia, no. 2(76) (May 25, 2023): 102–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2(76)-102-118.
Full textAbstract:
The paper is devoted to the analysis of the role of the dollar in the world economy and its formation as a world reserve currency. Based on the methodology of the school of world-system analysis (J. Arrighi, S. Amin, I. Wallerstein, R.S. Dzarazov), the author reveals the mechanism for using the dollar as one of the instruments of unequal exchange between the center and the periphery of the economy within the American systemic capital accumulation cycle. Based on a comprehensive empirical analysis, an assessment is made of the trends in the dedollarization of the world economy in the 21st century. It was found that despite the devastating consequences of the global crisis of 2007–2009. caused by the hypertrophied development of the financial sector of the US economy during the global crisis, the dollar retained a key role in the international reserves of states, in trade and exchange operations in the world economy. In particular, the Russian economy, despite the statements of the authorities about moving towards abandoning the dollar, nevertheless remained highly dependent on it, only partially replacing US dollars with the euro. Real de-dollarization 2022-2023 in Russia became a necessary measure for business, and was associated with the partial blocking of Russian correspondent accounts in Western banks.
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Jaya, Nyoman Herry Apryanta, and Nyoman Djinar Setiawina. "PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA SBI, IMPOR DAN EKSPOR TERHADAP KURS RUPIAH/DOLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT TAHUN 2010-2018." E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana 11, no. 8 (August 20, 2022): 2959. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/eep.2022.v11.i08.p03.
Full textAbstract:
Exchange rate the value of country's currency with value of another country's currency, which used to conduct international trade. Currency exchange rates or exchange rates are one of the most important macroeconomic variables, because movements in the exchange rates will affect economic stability. The research objectives to 1) analyze the effect of SBI interest rates, imports, and exports simultaneously on the rupiah / US dollar exchange rate in 2010-2018. 2) partially analyze the effect of SBI, Import, and Export interest rates on the rupiah / US dollar exchange rate in 2010-2018. 3) determine the variables that have a dominant effect on the SBI, Import, and Export interest rates on the rupiah / US dollar exchange rate in 2010-2018. This study uses secondary data and multiple linear regression analysis. The results are 1) SBI interest rates, imports, and exports simultaneously have significant effect on the exchange rate / exchange rate. 2) SBI, Import, and Export interest rates have positive significant effect on the exchange rate / exchange rate. 3) The variable that has a dominant influence is the export variable.
Keywords: Rupiah / United States dollar exchange rate, SBI interest rate, Import and Export
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Features Submission, Haworth Continuing. "Exchange Rates for the Australian Dollar." Australian & New Zealand Journal of Serials Librarianship 1, no. 2 (October 19, 1990): 21–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/j252v01n02_03.
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Manaswinee Madhumita Panda, Et al. "Convolutional Neural Network – Based Algorithm for Currency Exchange Rate Prediction." International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication 11, no. 10 (November 2, 2023): 551–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.17762/ijritcc.v11i10.8525.
Full textAbstract:
The foreign exchange market is one of the complex monetary markets in the world. Each day trillions of dollars are traded in the FOREX market by banks, retail traders, corporations, and individuals. It is very challenging to predict the price in advance due to the complex, volatile and high fluctuation. Investors and traders are constantly searching for innovative ways to outperform the market and increase their profits. As an outcome, forecasting models are continually being developed by scholars around the globe to accurately predict the characteristics of this nascent market. This study intends to apply the Random Forest (RF) approach to Convolutional Neural Networks, which involves two key steps. The first step is starting with feature selection using Convolutional neural network.The attention layer is then employed to assign weight.The random forest strategy is designed in the second stage to generate high-quality feature subsets. Thus the better result generated by CNN-RF model. Actually, this strategy combines the advantages of two different strategies to produce an outcome that is more consistent with what exchange market decision-makers anticipate happening in the exchange market.The main currency pairs considered in this study's proposed model for predicting exchange rates five and ten minutes in advance are the British Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD), the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD), and the European Euro (EUR) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are also used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. In compared to the other three models (Multi-Layer Perceptron, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, and Recurrent Neural Network), CNN-RF yields better results. This conclusion has been backed by a large body of empirical research, which also suggested that this methodology be regularly used due to its high efficacy.