Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Dividends Australia Mathematical models'
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1
Lin, Erlu, and 林尔路. "Analysis of dividend payments for insurance risk models with correlated aggregate claims." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B40203992.
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Powell, Robert. "Industry value at risk in Australia." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2007. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/297.
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Value at Risk (VaR) models have gained increasing momentum in recent years. Market VaR is an important issue for banks since its adoption as a primary risk metric in the Basel Accords and the requirement that it is calculated on a daily basis. Credit risk modelling has become increasingly important to banks since the advent of Basel 11 which allows banks with sophisticated modelling techniques to use internal models for the purpose of calculating capital requirements. A high level of credit risk is often the key reason behind banks failing or experiencing severe difficulty. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures extreme risk, and is gaining popularity with the recognition that high losses are often impacted by a small number of extreme events.
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Jaforullah, Mohammad. "Energy modelling in a general equilibrium framework with alternative production specifications." Title page, contents and astract only, 1988. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phj23.pdf.
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Wildegger-Gaissmaier, Anna Elisabeth. "Fluidized bed utilization of South Australian coals." Title page, contents and abstract only, 1988. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phw672.pdf.
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Gao, Zhanhai School of Mathematics UNSW. "Modelling Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in Australia." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Mathematics, 2001. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/18187.
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This thesis is concerned with the mathematical modelling for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemics in Australia. There are two parts to this thesis. Part I is aimed at modelling the transmission of HIV and HCV via needle sharing among injecting drug users (IDUs). The dynamical model of an epidemic through needle sharing among IDUs is derived. This model reveals the correlation between needle sharing and the epidemic prevalence among IDUs. The simulations of HIV and HCV prevalence and incidence among IDUs in Australia are made with this model. The comparison of simulated results with literature estimates shows that the modelled results are consistent with the literature estimates. The effects of needle sharing and cleaning on HIV and HCV prevalence and incidence among IDUs in Australia are evaluated. Part II is devoted to modelling the spread of HIV in the general community in Australia. A mathematical model is formulated to assess the epidemiological consequences of injecting drug use and sexual transmission in Australia. The effects of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART) on the HIV epidemic are included. The modelled results are in broad agreement with the literature estimates and observed data. The long-term effects of HAART are also discussed.
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Soucik, Victor. "Finding the true performance of Australian managed funds." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2002. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/730.
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When making conclusions about the performance of managed funds, it is critical that the framework in which such performance is measured provides an accurate and unbiased environment. In this thesis I search for true performance of the two major classes of funds- equity as well as fixed interest managed funds. Focusing, first on the former class, I examine five measurement models across three risk-free proxies, nine benchmarks proposed by the extant literature (covering conditional and unconditional as well as single and multi factor definitions) and over three independent periods in an effort to identity (in a consistent setting) the most accurate and least biast methodology. I also use the Australian dataset, which inherently mitigates any data biases that may potentially afflict US studies of these methodologies, since these were developed from the same dataset on which they were later tested. Not finding a pre-existing benchmark that is objective yet informative, I develop an independent model that satisfies these, sourcing from fifteen factor candidates across four categories. I find that teaming up a fund based market factor with well-defined proxies for size, value, momentum and conditional dividend yield provides the optimal benchmark. The latter class comprising fixed-interest managed funds is a segment left largely unexplored in the financial literature and neglected outright in the Australian context. I examine three risk-free proxies, six benchmark classes encompassing twenty-one potential factors, across five models and two independent time frames in an effort to establish the most informative and least biased setting. The task is complicated by two issues - an acute lack of Australian data (demanding additional bootstrap simulations and bridging tests with the US markets) and the need for a two-pass (time-series and cross-sectional) analysis, arising from the different information content benchmarks carry in these two dimensions. My results, consistent across time, show that a correct combination of a bond market variable, a mixture of interest rate factors and economic factors as well as the proxy for movements in the equity markets yield the optimal benchmark. Both fund classes point to Jensen's Alpha as the preferred model, but Treynor and Mazuy's definition of a quadratic measure is adequate if timing-selectivity separation is required. Neither class is significantly sensitive to the choice of risk free proxy featuring in the performance measures.
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Dennis, Kevin. "A mathematical model to describe haemophilus influenzae type B within Western Australia." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 1995. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1160.
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This work is primarily aimed at determining the effect that an immunisation policy Is likely to have on the incidence of Haemophllus influenzae Type B (HIB) and systematic HIB in Western Australia. There was a significant effort made to collect data pertinent to the estimation of parameter values but since HIB has only been a notifiable disease since 1992, there was a distinct lack of relevant data available. Private communication with individual’s such as Dr Jeffrey Hanna and Dr Beryl Wild resulted in practical information being obtained that was used to estimate certain parameters. The deterministic mathematical models within the thesis are extensions of existing ideas tailored to suit the needs of this thesis. Chapter one is a basic introduction to the pursuit of modelling infectious diseases with a brief description of basic epidemiology concepts. It also shows that even simple models may not deliver analytical results. Chapter two extends a model used by Angela Mclean and allows some analytical results to be obtained by first simplifying the model and then solving using standard methods to give the equilibrium distributions for the proportions of people in each state within the model
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Ernst, Wolfgang F. "The economic rationale for stochastic urban transport models and travel behaviour : a mathematical programming approach to quantitative analysis with Perth data." UWA Business School, 2003. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2005.0004.
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[Formulae and special characters can only be approximated here. Please see the pdf version of the abstract for an accurate reproduction.] This thesis reviews, extends and applies to urban traffic analysis the entropy concept of Shannon and Luce's mathematical psychology in a fairly complex and mathematically demanding model of human decision making, if it is solved as a deeply nested structure of logit calculus. Recognising consumers' different preferences and the universal propensity to seek the best choice when going to some desired goal (k), a transparent mathematical program (MP) is developed: the equivalent of a nested multinomial logit model without its inherent computational difficulty. The MP model makes a statistical assessment of individual decisions based on a randomised (measurable) utility within a given choice structure: some path through a diagram (Rk, Dk), designed a priori, of a finite number of sequential choices. The Equivalence Theorem (ET) formalises the process and states a non-linear MP with linear constraints that maximises collective satisfaction: utility plus weighted entropy, where the weight (1/θn) is a behavioural parameter to be calibrated in each case, eg for the Perth CBD. An optimisation subject to feasible routes through the (Rk, Dk) network thus captures the rational behaviour of consumers on their individually different best-choice decision paths towards their respective goals (k). This theory has been applied to urban traffic assignment before: a Stochastic User Equi-librium (SUE). What sets this thesis apart is its focus on MP models that can be solved with standard Operations Research software (eg MINOS), models for which the ET is a conditio sine qua non. A brief list of SUE examples in the literature includes Fisk's logit SUE model in (impractically many) route flows. Dial's STOCH algorithm obviates path enumeration, yet is a logit multi-path assignment procedure, not an MP model; it is nei-ther destination oriented nor an optimisation towards a SUE. A revision of Dial's method is provided, named STOCH[k], that computes primal variables (node and link flows) and Lagrangian duals (the satisfaction difference n→k). Sheffi & Powell presented an unconstrained optimisation problem, but favoured a probit SUE, defying closed formulae and standard OR software. Their model corresponds to the (constrained) dual model here, yet the specifics of our primary MP model and its dual are possible only if one restricts himself to logit SUE models, including the ET, which is logit-specific. A real world application needs decomposition, and the Perth CBD example is iteratively solved by Partial Linearisation, switching from (measured) disutility minimisation to Sheffi & Powell's Method of Successive Averages near the optimum. The methodology is demonstrated on the Perth Central Business District (CBD). To that end, parameter Θ is calibrated on Main Roads' traffic count data over the years 1997/98 and 1998/99. The method is a revision of Liu & Fricker's simultaneous estimation of not only Θ but an appropriate trip matrix also. Our method handles the more difficult variable costs (congestion), incomplete data (missing observations) and observation errors (wrong data). Finally, again based on Main Roads' data (a sub-area trip matrix), a Perth CBD traffic assignment is computed, (a) as a logit SUE and - for comparison - (b) as a DUE (using the PARTAN method of Florian, Guélat and Spiess). The results are only superficially similar. In conclusion, the methodology has the potential to replace current DUE models and to deepen transport policy analysis, taking into account individual behaviour and a money-metric utility that quantifies 'social benefits', for instance in a cost-benefit-analysis.
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O???Brien, Peter Banking & Finance Australian School of Business UNSW. "Term structure modelling and the dynamics of Australian interest rates." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Banking and Finance, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/28283.
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This thesis consists of two related parts. In the first part we conduct an empirical examination of the dynamics of Australian interest rates of six different maturities, covering the whole yield curve. This direct study of the long rates is quite novel. We use maximum likelihood estimation on a variety of models and find some results that are in stark contrast to previous studies. We estimate Poisson-jump diffusion (PJD) models and find very strong evidence for the existence of jumps in all daily interest rate series. We find that the PJD model fits short-rate data significantly better than a Bernoulli-jump diffusion model. We also estimate the CKLS model for our data and find that the only model not rejected for all six maturities is the CEV model in stark contrast to previous findings. Also, we find that the elasticity of variance estimate in the CKLS model is much higher for the short-rates than for the longer rates where the estimate is only about 0.25, indicating that different dynamics seem to be at work for different maturities. We also found that adding jumps to the simple diffusion model gives a larger improvement than comes from going from the simple diffusion to the CKLS model. In the second part of the thesis we examine the Flesaker and Hughston (FH) term structure model. We derive the dynamics of the short rate under both the original measure and the risk-neutral measure, and show that some criticisms of the bounds for the short rate may not be significant in actual applications. We also derive the dynamics of bond prices in the FH model and compare them to the HJM model. We also extend the FH model by allowing the martingale to follow a jump-diffusion process, rather than just a diffusion process. We derive the unique change of measure that guarantees the family of bond prices is arbitrage-free. We derive prices for caps and swaptions, and extend the results to include Bermudan swaptions and show how to price options with the jump-diffusion version of the FH model.
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Carter, Robert C. (Robert Charles) 1950. "The macro economic evaluation model (MEEM) : an approach to priority setting in the health sector." Monash University, Dept. of Management, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8672.
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Kirkpatrick, Raelene. "A mathematical analysis of the financial and medical impact of hepatitis C among drug users in Perth, Western Australia." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2003. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1332.
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The ability of public health planners continues to be hampered by uncertainties encountered with transmissible diseases. Key epidemiological factors such as, how many Western Australian injecting drug users are hepatitis C seropositive or will become infected, duration of intravenous drug use, the intensity of infection, the fraction of those infected that will develop end-stage disease and after how long a period, all combine to limit the ability of a mathematical model to predict future trends. These models can, however, provide information about certain epidemiological parameters and identify data required to predict future trends. They can be applied to make predictions about the course of infection in the individual and provide a guide to the interpretation of the observed data. This research aims to develop a model of the transmission and spread of hepatitis C, adapting existing models used to predict the spread of HIV and AIDS in one and two sex communities. This model will be used to demonstrate the dynamics and incidence of hepatitis C infection among injecting drug users in Perth, Western Australia. Predictions derived from the model will then be used to undertake an analysis of the cost of treating those with hepatitis C and cirrhosis related complications, resulting in a prediction of the financial impact of hepatitis C on the Western Australian community.
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Odeh, Inakwu Ominyi Akots. "Soil pattern recognition in a South Australian subcatchment /." Title page, contents and abstract only, 1990. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09pho23.pdf.
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Kwok, Ho King Calvin Actuarial Studies Australian School of Business UNSW. "Energy price modelling and risk management." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Actuarial Studies, 2007. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/40602.
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This thesis focuses on the development of a forecasting model for short- to medium-term electricity spot prices, based on modelling the dynamics of the supply and demand functions. It is found that the equilibrium assumption frequently adopted in electricity price models does not always hold; to overcome this problem, a notional demand process derived from the market clearing condition is proposed. Not only is this demand process able to capture all the price-affecting factors in one variable, but it also allows the equilibrium assumption to be satisfied and a spot price model to be built, using any appropriate form of hypothetical supply function. In addition, this thesis presents a model for approximating and modelling the bid stacks by capturing the points that govern their shape and location. Integrating these two models provides a realistic model that has a mean absolute percentage error of approximately 19% and 24% for week- and month-ahead forecasts respectively, when applied to the New South Wales (NSW) half-hourly electricity spot prices. Additionally, the density forecasting evaluation method proposed by Diebold et al. (1998) is employed in the thesis to assess the performance of the model. Besides the development of a spot price model, a two-part empirical study is made of the prices of NSW electricity futures contracts. The first part of the study develops a method based on the principle of certainty equivalence, which enables the market utility function to be recovered from a set of futures market quotes. The method is tested with two different sets of simulated data and works as expected. However, it is unable to obtain useful results from the NSW market quotes due to the poor data quality. The second part uses a regression method to investigate the relationship between futures prices and the descriptive statistics of the underlying spot prices. The result suggests that futures prices in NSW are linear combinations of the median and volatility of the final payoff.
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Thein, Hla-Hla Public Health & Community Medicine Faculty of Medicine UNSW. "Measuring the health burden of hepatitis C at an individual and population level in Australia." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Public Health and Community Medicine, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/24967.
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This thesis examines the effect of hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) to define burden of disease at individual and population levels. A systematic review of HCV HRQOL studies was undertaken with translation of Short Form-36 (SF-36) Health Survey data into community-weighted health state utilities using three different methods. Derived estimates of health utilities were 0.87 for HCV treatment-induced sustained virological response (SVR); 0.81 for pre-cirrhosis; 0.76 for compensated cirrhosis; 0.69 for decompensated cirrhosis; 0.67 for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); and 0.77 for liver transplant. The HCV health state utilities varied considerably from expert estimates, with relatively lower estimates for early liver disease and higher estimates for advanced liver disease, but were comparable to direct patient-elicited utilities. A study utilising data from population-based health surveys incorporating HCV screening among prisoners at Australian correctional centres in 1996 and 2001 showed no measurable effect of HCV on HRQOL, including that attributable to HCV viraemia. Compared to uninfected Australian norms, prisoners had lower HRQOL irrespective of HCV status. Several non-HCV factors such as age, co-morbidity, severity of depressive symptoms, and medical care utilization influenced HRQOL. A prospective study of health outcomes among HCV monoinfected and HIV/HCV coinfected individuals conducted at Sydney tertiary level hepatitis clinics between 2003 and 2005 found similar cognitive function, mood, and HRQOL patterns in these two HCV groups in the context of pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) alfa-2a and ribavirin therapy. The HCV groups had similar levels of pre-treatment HRQOL impairment, further on-treatment deterioration, and posttreatment improvements. SVR was associated with significant HRQOL improvements, but mental HRQOL improvement was also seen in individuals not achieving an SVR. The impact of HCV treatment uptake on HCV-related burden of disease at a population level in Australia was examined using a mathematical model. The model estimated that in 2004, there were ~181,500 cases of chronic HCV infection, 7,020 with HCV-related cirrhosis, and annual incidence of 238 cases of HCV-related liver failure and 70 cases of HCV-related HCC. Compared to no treatment, current treatment levels (~1% of HCV-infected individuals per annum) would reduce projected HCV-related cirrhosis and advanced liver disease numbers by ~30% at 2020 and a gain of ~122,200 Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Even with a five-fold increase from current treatment levels, advanced liver disease numbers will continue to increase through 2020 but will be reduced by ~55% and a gain of ~483,200 QALYs.
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Fiorentino, Francesca. "Mathematical models of the impact of rabbit calicivirus disease (RCD) on the European rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus, in Australia." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2004. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1446810/.
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This thesis relates to the work of building a mathematical model of the impact of Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) on the European Rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus, in Australia. After introducing the general biology of rabbits and the immunology of RCD, we build a time-dependent single site model. We construct a single-site population dynamic model with age structure, seasonal birth rate, density dependent regulation of the population size and climatic variability for various regions of Australia. After investigating suitable parameter ranges, we incorporate the disease dynamics through an indirect transmission model based on two different hypotheses which we call the Strong Juvenile hypothesis and the Weak Juvenile hypothesis. These differ in their assumption about Juvenile immunity to the disease. The ecological impact of both hypotheses is tested for both the single site and multiple site (spatial) models. The disease impact is investigated by varying the disease virulence, i.e. a parameter measuring the "strength" of the virus. Subsequently, a multiple site (spatial) model for the Riverina region is built by using the single-site model as building block. Data from Lake Urana is used to parameterize a seasonal emigration rate from each site. Density dependent immigration is added together with a hazard coefficient which rabbits face when leaving one site and trying to become established in another. Acceptance in a new site is regulated by the population density at the entry site. Several spatial configurations of sites are tested and the spatial dynamics of the disease is investigated. Finally, we construct a model to investigate the long term evolution of the disease virus. We postulate the existence of several strains of the disease and trade-offs between disease characteristics. We allow for mutation of the virus and run the model for two contrasting geographical regions of Australia. We compare the results for the different regions and the different hypotheses regarding Juvenile immunity (the Strong Juvenile hypothesis and the Weak Juvenile hypothesis). It is shown, unexpectedly, that intermediate levels of disease virulence are not selected.
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Farag, Saarah A. "A comparison of advanced time series models for environmental dependent stock recruitment of the western rock lobster." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 1998. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/997.
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Time series models have been applied in many areas including economics, stuck recruitment and the environment. Most environmental time series involve highly correlated dependent variables, which makes it difficult to apply conventional regression analysis, Traditionally, regression analysis has been applied to the environmental dependent stock and recruitment relationships for crustacean species in Western Australian fisheries. Alternative models, such as transfer function models and state space models have the potential to provide unproved forecasts for these types of data sets. This dissertation will explore the application of regression models, transfer function models, and state space models to modelling the puerulus stage of the western rock lobster (Panulirus Cynus) in the fisheries of Western Australia. The transfer function models are consulted to examining the influences of the environment on crustacean species and can be used where correlated variables are involved. These models aim at producing short-term forecasts that may help in the management of the fisheries. In comparison with regression models, TFM models gave better forecast values with state space models given the forecast values in the first two years. Overall, it was shown that environmental effects, westerly winds and the Leeuwin Current, have a significant effect on the puerulus settlement for Dongara and Alkimos. It was also shown that westerly winds and spawning stock have a significant effect on the puerulus settlement at the Abrolhos Islands.
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Rigby, Elaine Rose. "Modelling results of student evaluations to improve the quality of teaching in accounting departments." Thesis, Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/133664.
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The Course Evaluation Questionnaire is a student evaluation instrument designed to
measure the teaching performance of academic organisational units. The statistical
qualities of its scales, as well as their sensitivity, reliability and validity have been
confirmed in other studies. This study situates the development of the CEQ within the
context of public sector reform in Australia, which emphasised accountability measured
through performance indicators. It reviews previous research using the CEQ and
attempts to apply the CEQ in a new way, by using responses from students who were
enrolled in a first year accounting subject at three established universities, to construct a
model which quantifies the relationship between students' overall satisfaction score and
certain variables which were tested for their contribution to students' satisfaction. The
variables which were found to make a statistically significant contribution to student
satisfaction were: good teaching; clear goals and standards; appropriate workload;
emphasis on student independence; gender; language background; and university. The
major conclusions reached are 1) that of the five CEQ scales good teaching appears to be
most strongly related to overall satisfaction and that positive effect is the same at all three
universities, 2) that gender affects satisfaction at all three universities and 3) that
language background has an effect at two universities. The implications of these findings
for quality teaching in accounting courses and for accounting education research are
discussed.
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Choi, Yoon-Hong. "The mathematical modelling of the Ross River Virus transmission." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 1997. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/896.
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Ross River virus is one of the most severe communicable diseases in Australia. During the 1995/96 outbreak of Ross River virus in south-western Australia, over 1 ,300 human cases were reported. Since the symptoms of the disease are sometimes too weak to be diagnosed, it is important to determine the number of humans who actually contracted the virus during outbreaks. To do this, several mathematical models with different hypotheses are constructed and analysed mathematically. The threshold mathematical conditions of these models suggest that as well as the size of the vector mosquito population, the population size and length of viraemia periods; of host populations and the infection rates between the hosts and vectors play the main roles in the transmission. Several parameters in the transmission are currently unknown, so only simple models of RRV transmission are computer-simulated. Some of the unknown parameters are extrapolated from published studies of other arboviruses. The sensitivities of the models to some of the unknown parameters are also examined. Simulation results indicate the sero-conversion rates and ratios of clinical to subclinical human infections during the outbreaks which occurred in the Peel and Leschenault districts in Southwestern Australia.
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Nixon, John Bruce. "Dispersion modelling using finite-difference methods with application to larval western king prawn (Pencieus latisulcatus) in Spencer Gulf, South Australia /." Title page, contents and abstract only, 1996. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phn736.pdf.
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Reimnitz, Marc. "Shear-slip induced seismic activity in underground mines : a case study in Western Australia." University of Western Australia. School of Civil and Resource Engineering, 2004. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2004.0062.
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Mining induced seismic activity and rockbursting are critical concerns for many underground operations. Seismic activity may arise from the crushing of highly stressed volumes of rock around mine openings or from shear motion on planes of weakness. Shear-slip on major planes of weakness such as faults, shear zones and weak contacts has long been recognized as a dominant mode of failure in underground mines. In certain circumstances, it can generate large seismic events and induce substantial damage to mine openings. The Big Bell Gold mine began experiencing major seismic activity and resultant damage in 1999. Several seismic events were recorded around the second graphitic shear between April 2000 and February 2002. It is likely that the seismic activity occurred as a result of the low strength of the shear structure combined with the high level of mining induced stresses. The stability of the second graphitic shear was examined in order to gain a better understanding of the causes and mechanisms of the seismic activity recorded in the vicinity of the shear structure as mining advanced. The data were derived from the observation of the structure exposures, numerical modelling and seismic monitoring. The numerical modelling predictions and the interpreted seismic monitoring data were subsequently compared in order to identify potential relationships between the two. This thesis proposes the Incremental Work Density (IWD) as a measure to evaluate the relative likelihood of shear-slip induced seismic activity upon major planes of weakness. IWD is readily evaluated using numerical modelling and is calculated as the product of the average driving shear stress and change in inelastic shear deformation during a given mining increment or step. IWD is expected to correlate with shear-slip induced seismic activity in both space and time. In this thesis, IWD was applied to the case study of the second graphitic shear at the Big Bell mine. Exposures of the second graphitic shear yielded information about the physical characteristics of the structure and location within the mine. Numerical modelling was used to examine the influence of mining induced stresses on the overall behaviour of the shear structure. A multi-step model of the mine was created using the three- dimensional boundary element code of Map3D. The shear structure was physically incorporated into the model in order to simulate inelastic shear deformation. An elasto-plastic Mohr-Coulomb material model was used to describe the structure behaviour. The structure plane was divided into several elements in order to allow for the comparison of the numerical modelling predictions and the interpreted seismic data. Stress components, deformation components and IWD values were calculated for each element of the shear structure and each mining step. The seismic activity recorded in the vicinity of the second graphitic shear was back analysed. The seismic data were also gridded and smoothed. Gridding and smoothing of individual seismic moment and seismic energy values resulted in the definition of indicators of seismic activity for each element and mining step. The numerical model predicted inelastic shear deformation upon the second graphitic shear as mining advanced. The distribution of modelled IWD suggested that shear deformation was most likely seismic upon a zone below the stopes and most likely aseismic upon the upper zone of the shear structure. The distribution of seismic activity recorded in the vicinity of the shear structure verified the above predictions. The seismic events predominantly clustered upon the zone below the stopes. The results indicated that the seismic activity recorded in the vicinity of the second graphitic shear was most likely related to both the change in inelastic shear deformation and the level of driving shear stress during mechanical shearing. Time distribution of the seismic events also indicated that shear deformation and accompanying seismic activity were strongly influenced by mining and were time-dependant. Seismic activity in the vicinity of the second graphitic shear occurred as a result of the overall inelastic shear deformation of the shear structure under mining induced stresses. A satisfactory relationship was found between the spatial distribution of modelled IWD upon the shear structure and the spatial distribution of interpreted seismic activity (measured as either smoothed seismic moment or smoothed seismic energy). Seismic activity predominantly clustered around a zone of higher IWD upon the second graphitic shear as mining advanced. However, no significant statistical relationship was found between the modelled IWD and the interpreted seismic activity. The lack of statistical relationship between the modelled and seismic data may be attributed to several factors including the limitations of the techniques employed (e.g. Map3D modelling, seismic monitoring) and the complexity of the process involved.
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Yap, C. S. "Modelling and risk analysis of the western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) fishery of Western Australia." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 1995. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1462.
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The predictive power for short-term forecasting of selected biomass dynamic models was examined using the standardised catch and effort data from the 1944/45 to 1990/91 season of the western rock lobster. Risk analysis of the fishery based on the predicted fishing efforts with the Deriso-Schnute delay-difference model indicates a high probability of recruitment failure. Some hypothetical management strategies of reducing fishing effort were evaluated by taking into consideration the total catch and biological risk to the fishery.
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Cordin, Robin M. "Psychopathic-like-traits and aggression in suspended mainstream school children and adolescents." University of Western Australia. Graduate School of Education, 2008. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2008.0100.
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[Truncated abstract] The overall aim of the research reported in this thesis was to explore the viability and utility of the construct of psychopathy and aggression in children and adolescents. Specifically, by taking a developmentally informed approach it sought to develop new instrumentation which measured psychopathic-like-traits, and verbal proactive and reactive aggression in non-referred mainstream school children and adolescents. To achieve this, four separate yet interrelated studies were conducted. Study One comprised three phases relating to the development and validation of two new instruments. In Phase One the instruments currently used to measure psychopathy were reviewed and items relevant to young persons were selected for inclusion in a draft version of the new psychopathy screening instrument. Phase Two, which sought to further explore the construct of psychopathy in children and adolescents, comprised a series of interviews with school principals, deputy principals, psychologists, and education officers at the main juvenile detention centre in Perth, Western Australia. These interviews provided information relating to the behaviour and characteristics of children and adolescents who present with psychopathic-like-traits. As a consequence of the feedback from the Phase Two data, Phase Three reviewed the instrumentation currently used to measure aggression in children and adolescents. From this items were selected for possible inclusion in an aggression questionnaire. The data gathered over these three phases resulted in 117 psychopathy related items being generated for the new instrument, which were subsequently reduced to 56 when duplicated items were identified and the extant knowledge of the construct applied. The 56 items were retained in a draft version of the newly developed instrument, which was named the Child and Adolescent Psychopathy Screening Instrument (CAPSI). The Study One data revealed the instrumentation used to date provided few measures of physical and verbal aggression - a characteristic of psychopathic-like behaviour. Thus, a review of instrumentation together with the information from the interviews resulted in 63 aggression items being generated. ... Study Four utilised information from the CAPSI and the CASA in conjunction with in-depth interviews to generate case studies to further elucidate the characteristics of children and adolescents with psychopathic-like-traits and extreme aggression. Case studies were undertaken with seven male students ranging in age from 8 to 15 years who had been suspended from mainstream schools. All boys scored very highly on the new instruments. All presented with extreme aggression, with some exhibiting proactive or premeditated aggression combined with a superficially engaging personality, insincere charm, lack of remorse, and lack of empathy. The findings from all four research studies are discussed in the light of the literature reviewed and the aims of the research. Implications are then drawn for researchers and clinicians, and directions for further research are suggested.
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Ugbo, Justin Petroleum Engineering Faculty of Engineering UNSW. "A new model for evaluating water saturation in shaly sand reservoirs using quantitative x-ray diffraction and cation exchange capacity cliff head field, Western Australia." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Petroleum Engineering, 2007. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/40443.
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Interpretation problems are commonly associated with calculating water saturation in nonhomogenous shaly sand reservoirs. Redefining petrophysical properties based on well logs in shaly sand reservoirs by using fundamental geologic attributes is an important tool in developing subsurface hydrocarbon resources. Studies of the electrical anisotropy of shaly sands have shown that the level of our understanding and our ability to correctly evaluate low resistivity and low contrast pay can be greatly improved. The model developed in this thesis is similar in form to the shaly sand Dual Water model by Clavier et al. (1984). It is an experiment based model designed to directly assess and quantify the mineralogical and electrical effects of clay minerals in heterogeneous reservoirs. Clay minerals usually have multiple effects on petrophysical properties obtained from geophysical well log measurements. The total expansible clay model evaluates these effects via direct measurement of independent mineralogy and conductivity of clay minerals within reservoir sands. This model integrates the following as an effective basis for characterizing shaly sand reservoirs: ??? Rietveld based Siroquant assay for quantitative X-ray diffraction, used in determining mineral percentages from standard XRD trace patterns, ??? Cation exchange capacity, used to determine the quantity of cations involved in the exchange at the shale-water interface, ??? Porosity, permeability, density and resistivity measurements, ??? Thin section petrography, used in identifying mineral patterns, visible porosity and reservoir quality. Overall, application of correlations drawn from the model yields improved results for water saturation which appeared consistent with those earlier calculated using known water saturation models (Clavier et al Dual Water model, 1984, Juhasz, 1981). A total of twenty three samples from two wells in the Cliff Head fIeld were analyzed for this study.
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Klopp, Gregory Mark. "Seismic design of unreinforced masonry structures /." Title page, contents and abstract only, 1996. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phk658.pdf.
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Yang, Wenling. "M-GARCH Hedge Ratios And Hedging Effectiveness In Australian Futures Markets." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2000. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1530.
Full textAbstract:
This study deals with the estimation of the optimal hedge ratios using various econometric models. Most of the recent papers have demonstrated that the conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) method of estimating constant hedge ratios is inappropriate, other more complicated models however seem to produce no more efficient hedge ratios. Using daily AOIs and SPI futures on the Australian market, optimal hedge ratios are calculated from four different models: the OLS regression model, the bivariate vector autoaggressive model (BVAR), the error-correction model (ECM) and the multivariate diagonal Vcc GARCH Model. The performance of each hedge ratio is then compared. The hedging effectiveness is measured in terms of ex-post and ex-ante risk-return traHe-off at various forcasting horizons. It is generally found that the GARCH time varying hedge ratios provide the greatest portfolio risk reduction, particularly for longer hedging horizons, but hey so not generate the highest portfolio return.
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Wilmot, Peter Nicholas. "Modelling cooling tower risk for Legionnaires' Disease using Bayesian Networks and Geographic Information Systems." Title page, contents and conclusion only, 1999. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09SIS.M/09sismw744.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 115-120) Establishes a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to model uncertainty of aerosols released from cooling towers and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to create a wind dispersal model and identify potential cooling towers as the source of infection. Demonstrates the use of GIS and BBN in environmental epidemiology and the power of spatial information in the area of health.
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Linke, Simon, and n/a. "River conservation planning: accounting for condition, vulnerability and connected systems." University of Canberra. Resource, Environmental & Heritage Sciences, 2006. http://erl.canberra.edu.au./public/adt-AUC20070716.155500.
Full textAbstract:
Conservation science in rivers is still lagging behind its terrestrial and marine counterparts,
despite increasing threats to freshwater biodiversity and extinction rates being estimated as
five times higher than in terrestrial ecosystems. Internationally, most protected rivers have
been assigned reserve status in the framework of terrestrial conservation plans, neglecting
catchment effects of disturbance. While freshwater conservation tools are mainly index based
(e.g. richness, rarity), modern terrestrial and marine conservation planning methods use
complementarity-based algorithms - proven to be most efficient at protecting a large number
of taxa for the least cost. The few complementarity-based lotic conservation efforts all use
broad river classifications instead of biota as targets, a method heavily disputed in the
literature. They also ignore current condition and future vulnerability.
It was the aim of this thesis to develop a framework for conservation planning that:
a) accounts for the connected nature of rivers
b) is complementarity based and uses biota as targets
c) integrates current status and future vulnerability
I developed two different approaches using macroinvertebrate datasets from Australia,
Canada and the USA. The first new method was a site/based two-tiered approach integrating
condition and conservation value, based on RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS � a modelling technique
that predicts macroinvertebrate composition. The condition stage assesses biodiversity loss by
estimating a site-specific expected assemblage and comparing it to the actual observed
assemblage. Sites with significant biodiversity loss are flagged for restoration, or other
management actions. All other sites progress to the conservation stage, in which an index of
site-specific taxonomic rarity is calculated. This second index (O/E BIODIV) assesses the
number of rare taxa (as defined by <50% probability of occurrence). Using this approach on a dataset near Sydney, NSW, Australia, I was able to identify three regions: 1) an area in need
of restoration; 2) a region of high conservation value and 3) an area that had high
conservation potential if protection and restoration measures could counteract present
disturbance.
However, a second trial run with three datasets from the USA and Canada highlighted
problems with O/E (BIODIV). If common taxa are predicted at lower probabilities of
occurrence (p<50%) because of model error, they enter the index and change O/E (BIODIV).
Therefore, despite an attractive theoretical grounding, the application of O/E (BIODIV) will
be restricted to datasets where strong environmental gradients explain a large quantity of
variation in the data and permit accurate predictions of rare taxa. It also requires extensive
knowledge of regional species pools to ensure that introduced organisms are not counted in
the index.
The second approach was a proper adaptation of terrestrial complementarity algorithms and
an extension to the Irreplaceability-Vulnerability framework by Margules and Pressey (2000).
For this large-scale method, distributions for 400 invertebrate taxa were modeled across 1854
subcatchments in Victoria, Australia using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs). The best
heuristic algorithm to estimate conservation value was determined by calculating the
minimum area needed to cover all 400 taxa. Solutions were restricted to include rules for the
protection of whole catchments upstream of a subcatchment that contained the target taxon. A
summed rarity algorithm proved to be most efficient, beating the second best solution by 100
000 hectares. To protect 90% of the taxa, only 2% of the study area need to be protected. This
increases to 10% of the study area when full representation of the targets is required.
Irreplaceability was calculated by running the heuristic algorithm 1000 times with 90% of the
catchments randomly removed. Two statistics were then estimated: f (the frequency of
selection across 1000 runs) and average c (contribution to conservation targets). Four groups of catchments were identified: a) catchments that have high contributions and are always selected; b) catchments that have high contributions and are not always selected; c)
catchments that are always chosen but do not contribute many taxa; d) catchments that are
rarely chosen and did not contribute many taxa. Summed c, the sum of contributions over
1000 runs was chosen as an indicator of irreplaceability, integrating the frequency of selection
and the number of taxa protected.
Irreplaceability (I) was then linked to condition (C) and vulnerability (V) to create the ICVframework
for river conservation planning. Condition was estimated using a stressor gradient
approach (SGA), in which GIS layers of disturbance were summarised to three principal axes
using principal components analysis (PCA). The main stressor gradient � agriculture �
classified 75% of the study area as disturbed, a value consistent with existing assessments of
river condition. Vulnerability was defined as the likelihood that land use in a catchment
would intensify in the future. Hereby current tenure was compared to land capability. If a
catchment would support a land use that would have a stronger effect on the rivers than its
current tenure, it was classified as vulnerable. 79% of catchments contained more than 50%
vulnerable land.
When integrating the three estimators in the ICV-framework, seven percent of catchments
were identified as highly irreplaceable but in degraded condition. These were flagged for
urgent restoration. Unprotected, but highly irreplaceable and highly vulnerable catchments
that were still in good condition made up 2.5% of the total area. These catchments are prime
candidates for river reserves.
The ICV framework developed here is the first method for systematic conservation planning
in rivers that is complementarity-based, biota-driven but flexible to other conservation targets
and accounts for catchment effects, thus fulfilling all the gaps outlined in the aims.
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Sadler, Rohan. "Image-based modelling of pattern dynamics in a semiarid grassland of the Pilbara, Australia." University of Western Australia. School of Plant Biology, 2007. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2007.0155.
Full textAbstract:
[Truncated abstract] Ecologists are increasingly interested in quantifying local interacting processes and their impacts on spatial vegetation patterns. In arid and semiarid ecosystems, theoretical models (often spatially explicit) of dynamical system behaviour have been used to provide insight into changes in vegetation patterning and productivity triggered by ecological events, such as fire and episodic rainfall. The incorporation of aerial imagery of vegetation patterning into current theoretical model remains a challenge, as few theoretical models may be inferred directly from ecological data, let alone imagery. However, if conclusions drawn from theoretical models were well supported by image data then these models could serve as a basis for improved prediction of complex ecosystem behaviour. The objective of this thesis is therefore to innovate methods for inferring theoretical models of vegetation dynamics from imagery. ... These results demonstrate how an ad hoc inference procedure returns biologically meaningful parameter estimates for a germ-grain model of T. triandra vegetation patterning, with VLSA photography as data. Various aspects of the modelling and inference procedures are discussed in the concluding chapter, including possible future extensions and alternative applications for germ-grain models. I conclude that the state-and-transition model provides an effective exploration of an ecosystem?s dynamics, and complements spatially explicit models designed to test specific ecological mechanisms. Significantly, both types of models may now be inferred from image data through the methodologies I have developed, and can provide an empirical basis to theoretical models of complex vegetation dynamics used in understanding and managing arid (and other) ecological systems.
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Schreuder, F. A. "An investigation into global distribution systems in the crop protection industry and the development of distribution system managment model for particular application in South Africa and Australia." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/21185.
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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The traditional ways in which manufacturers of crop protection products exercised control over distribution systems have diminished in their impact. Control was based on quality products, the power of the brand, an installed customer base and a broad portfolio of mostly patented products. Manufacturers of crop protection products need to review the manner in which these products are marketed, which distribution system management models are to be used, and the importance that is placed on distribution system management in the marketing mix. The primary aim of this study was defined as: "The development of appropriate distribution system management models for application in South Africa and Australia~. The secondary aim was defined as: "Establishing the key factors which determine the relationship between manufacturers and distributorsn . The dominant economic characteristics of the global crop protection industry are deemed to consist of a global market valued at US $28,090 mio, a mature market in a decline phase, the rapid consolidation of industry players, increased generic product manufacturer activity and an overall decline in manufacturer profitability. In South Africa crop protection product manufacturers use approximately 46 independent distributors to market products on farms through 600 affiliated commissioned sales agents. In Australia the distribution of crop protection products is much more concentrated. Distribution is essentially controlled by five national distributors and their coupled salaried representatives. Manufacturers therefore rely on third parties for the marketing of their products to farmers in both countries. The applicable problem statement has been formulated to select a distribution system management model that will: (i) optimally balance direct distribution related cost and subsequent levels of control over distributors; (ii) maximise the probability that a distributor will buy and actively promote the complete product portfolio of a for high levels of interpersonal relationship maintenance; and (vi) manufacturers have to instill the philosophy that distribution system management is part of a manufacturer's strategic business and marketing focus and not simply a task to be performed by a third party.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die tradisionele maniare waarop die vervaardigers van oesbeskermingsprodukte beheer kan uitoefen oor verspreidingsisteme is nie meer so suksesvol nie. Beheer was gebaseer op kwaliteil produkte, die mag van die handelsmerk:n gevestigde klientebasis en 'n wye produktereeks,bestaande uit gepatenteerde produkte, Vervaardigers van oesbeskermingsprodulcte moet die wyse waarop hierdie produkte bemark word, watter verspreidingsisteem bestuursmodelle gebruik word en die belangrikheid wat geplaas word op die bestuur van die verspreidingsisteme in die totala bemarkingspoging in heroorweging neern. Die primere doelstelling van hierdie studie is: "Die ontwikkeling van toepaslike verspreidingsisteem bestuursmodelle vir toe passing in Suid-Afrika en Australia. "Die sekondere doelstelling is: "Die vas stelling van die sleutelfaktore wat die verhouding tussen velVaardigers (verskaffers) en verspreiders bepaar. Die dominante ekonomiese kenmerke van die globale oesbeskermingsindustrie is 'n markwaarde in VSA $ 28,090 miljoen, 'n stagnante mark in 'n agteruitgang lase, die drastiese konsolidasie van die industrie spelers, 'n toename in die aktiwiteite van die generiese produkvervaardigers en 'n algemene daling in die winsgewindheid van die vervaardigers. In Suid-Afrika gebruik die vervaardigers van die oesbeskermingsprodukte ongeveer 46 onafhanklike verspreiders om die produkte op plaasvlak te bemark met behulp van 600 geaffilieerde kommissie agente. Die verspreiding van oesbeskermingsprodukte is baie meer gekonsentreerd in Australie. Verspreiding word in wese beheer deur vyf nasionale verspreiders en hulle spanne van verkoopsteenwoordigers wat 'n salaris verdien. In beide lande moet velVaardigers van oesbeskermingsprodukte staatmaak op onafhanklike instansies vir die bemarking van hul produkte op plaasvlak. Die probleemsteiling is dus die uitdaging om 'n verspreidingsisteem bestuursmodel t9 ontwikkel wat: (i) . n optima Ie balans sal gee tussen direkte verspreidingskoste en gekoppelde vlakke van beheer oor verspreiders; (ii) die waarskynlikheid dat . n verspreider die betrokke produkreeks van die vervaardiger sal aankoop en aktief sal promoveer; (iii) dit kan bereik in . n mark waar verspreiders talle bronne het van soortgelyke produkte teen kompeterende pryse. Gebaseer op die sekondere navorsing wat gedoen is wit dit blyk dat daar 'n algemene konsensus is dat daar n nei9in9 weg is van transaksie spesifieke besigheidsverhoudings na besigheidsverhoudings gebaseer op vennootskap gebaseerde benaderings in die interaksie tussen vervaardigers (verskaffers) en verspreiders. Hierdie tipe besigheidsverhouding word gekenmerk deur hoe vlakke van onderlinge vertroue, wedersydse verbintenis, konflik hanteringsmeganismes en goeie wedersydse kommunikasie. Primere navorsing is in Suid-Afrika (253 respondente) en Australia (180 respondente) gedoen. Implikasies vir die konstruksie van verspreidingsisteem bestuursmodelle wat voortvloei uit hierdie navorsing sluit in die belangrikheid dat on vervaardiger on wye en gesogte produkreeks het, die vereiste dat produkte beproefde effektiwiteit het, produkte kompeterend geprys is, die vereiste vir hoe vlakke van verskaffer opvolgdiens en die vereiste vir goeie interpersoonlike verhouding tussen werknemers van beide die vervaardigers en die verspreiders. Hierdie elemente moet ondermeer gerugsteun word deur goeie kommunikasiesisteme. Die "idea Ie" verspreidingsisteem bestuursmodelle is vervolgens voorgestel vir beide Suid-Afrika en Australie, gebaseer op die bevindinge van ondermeer die sekondere- en primere navorsing. Hierdie mode lie het ten doel om toepaslike strukture en besigheidsbenaderings vir vervaardigers daar te stel om hulle behulpsaam te wees om die geidentifiseerde behoeftes van die verspreiders aan te spreek.
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Verspecht, Florence. "Temporal dynamics of the coastal water column." University of Western Australia. School of Environmental Systems Engineering, 2008. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2008.0097.
Full textAbstract:
Field measurements and numerical modelling of the shallow coastal waters offshore in south-western Australia were used to describe changes in the water column's vertical structure and the biological response on temporal scales of the order of hours and days. A cycle of chlorophyll a concentration, primary production, and photosystem II function on a diel timescale, which was related to changes in the solar irradiance and thermal structure, was identified. The diel cycle included (1) vertically well-mixed (or weakly linear) conditions in density and chlorophyll a early in the morning, resulting from vertical mixing through penetrative overnight convection; (2) depleted chlorophyll a concentration in the surface layer during the middle of the day due to photoinhibition; (3) an increased chlorophyll a concentration in the bottom layer by late afternoon due to optimum light conditions; and (4) the formation of a chlorophyll a break point (CBP) at the thermocline, which migrated downwards with the deepening surface mixed layer. On a longer timescale (days), moored acoustic instruments were used to derive echo level (EL), which approximated suspended particulate matter (SPM). Wind events ultimately controlled SPM, a conclusion based on (1) elevated EL during high windgenerated turbulence and bed shear stress, (2) positive time-lagged correlations between wind speed and EL at three field sites with different exposures to wave action, and (3) significant negative correlations between wind speed and depth-differentiated echo level (d(EL)/dz) at all sites. Sea breezes produced a similar response in EL through the water column to a small storm event, and wind-driven SPM resuspension resulted in a reduction in the sub-surface light climate (kd). Near-bed dissolved oxygen concentrations varied in accord with elevated wind speeds, EL and kd, highlighting a possible suppression of photosynthesis. One-dimensional modelling revealed that wind stirring was most often the dominant process in these waters. It was found that for a brief period during thermal stratification there was shear production of turbulent instabilities that migrated from the thermocline to the surface and the seabed. Convective cooling was not able to mix the water column entirely overnight without the addition of wind, and minimum wind speeds were determined for this complete vertical mixing. Bottom-generated turbulence was limited to a small region above the bed, and was deemed insignificant compared with mixing generated at the surface. Minimum wind speeds required for de-stratification and prevention of stratification were determined for summer, autumn and winter. A hypothetical desalination outfall was simulated for all seasons and it was concluded that positioning of the discharge at middepth was preferable compared to at the seabed. The results of this thesis advance the current knowledge of coastal biophysical oceanography and provide new insights into the temporal dynamics of the coastal water column of south-western Australia.
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Siddique, Sharif Rayhan. "Development of policies to ameliorate the environmental impact of cars in Perth City, using the results of a stated preference survey and air pollution modelling." University of Western Australia. Faculty of Business, 2007. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2007.0165.
Full textAbstract:
[Truncated abstract] Air pollution is increasingly perceived to be a serious intangible threat to humanity, with air quality continuing to deteriorate in most urban areas. The main sources of inner city pollution are motor vehicles, which generate emissions from the tail pipe as well as by evaporation. These contain toxic gaseous components which have adverse health effects. The major components are carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitric oxide (NO), sulphur dioxide (SO2), particulates (PM10), and volatile organic compounds (VOC). CO and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are major emissions from cars. This study focuses on pollutant concentration in Perth city and has sought to develop measures to improve air quality. To estimate concentrations, the study develops air pollution models for CO and NOx; on the basis of the model estimates, effective policy is devised to improve the air quality by managing travel to the city. Two peaks, due to traffic, are observed in hourly CO and NOx concentrations. Unlike traffic, however, the morning peak does not reach the level of the afternoon peak. The reasons for this divergence are assessed and quantified. Separate causal models of hourly concentrations of CO and NOx explain their fluctuations accurately. They take account of the complex effects of the urban street canyon and winds in the city. The angle of incidence of the wind has significant impact on pollution level; a wind flow from the south-west increases pollution and wind from the north-east decreases it. The models have been shown to be equivalent to engineering and scientific models in estimating emission rate in the context of street canyons. However the study models are much more precise in the Perth context. ... The models are used to calculate the marginal effects for all attributes and elasticity for fuel price. In almost all attributes the non-work group is more responsive than the work group. Finally, the SP model results are integrated into an econometric model for the purpose of prediction. The travel behaviour prediction is used to estimate the policy impact on air quality. The benefit from the air quality improvement is reported in terms of life saved. The estimated relationships between probability of death and air pollution determines the number of lives that could be saved under various policy scenarios. A ratio of benefits to the financial and perceived sacrifices by drivers is calculated to compare the effectiveness of the suggested policies. A car size charge policy was found to be the most cost effective measure to ameliorate the environmental impact of cars in Perth, with a morning peak entry time charge being almost as cost effective. The study demonstrates the need for appropriate modelling of air pollution and travel behaviour. It brings together analytical methods at three levels of causality, vehicle to air pollution, charge to travel response, and air pollution to health.
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Kerin, Paul D. "A spatial economic analysis of the Eyre Peninsula grain handling and transportation system." Title page, abstract and contents only, 1985. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ECM/09ecmk39.pdf.
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Srisurichan, Sukanlaya. "Time series modelling of the environmental factors affecting the daily catch rate of western rock lobster." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2001. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1511.
Full textAbstract:
The western rock lobster fishery is one of the most significant and valuable single species fisheries in Australia and in the world. It generates a gross commercial value of $200-300 million dollars per year for the economy of Western Australia. The impact of environmental factors on the daily catch rate of the western rock lobster is of particular interest to the W.A. Marine Research Laboratories, at the Ministry of Fisheries, Western Australia. Considerable time and effort has been invested into building and developing suitable models to measure such impact on this fishery. While past research has focussed on monthly or seasonal data, this study investigated appropriate time series analyses to model the effect of major environmental factors such as lunar cycle, swell, and sea water temperature on the daily catch rate data of the western rock lobster at different depths. The variation in western rock lobster daily catch rate data for two periods ("whites" and "reds") and four categories (undersize, legal size, spawner, and setose ), was examined for three management zones, A, B, and C. Regression and transfer function models for relationships between catch rates and environmental data were considered and compared. Results show that the lunar cycle especially the presence of the full moon and the swell has a significant impact on the daily catch rates of the Western rock lobster. The results of this research assist in the development of improved models to support the management of this very valuable resource.
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"The impact of ultimate ownership and investor protections on dividend policies." 2004. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b6073654.
Full textAbstract:
Leung Shek Ling Olivia."August 2004."
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 62-64).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
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Gallant, John Christian. "Pesticide transport models for assessing nonpoint source pollution in Australia." Master's thesis, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/144088.
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Rasser, Paul Edward. "Calibration of numerical models with application to groundwater flow in the Willunga Basin, South Australia." 2001. http://thesis.library.adelaide.edu.au/public/adt-SUA20030414.111541/index.html.
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Bibliography: 80-82. Electronic publication; full text available in PDF format; abstract in HTML format. The process of calibrating a numerical model is examined in this thesis with an application to the flow of groundwater in the Willunga Basin in South Australia. The calibration process involves estimating unknown parameters of the numerical model so that the output obtained from the model is comparable with data that is observed in the field. Three methods for calibrating numerical models are discussed, these being the steepest descent method, the nonlinear least squares method, and a new method called the response function method. Electronic reproduction.[Australia] :Australian Digital Theses Program,2001.
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Wildegger-Gaissmaier, Anna Elisabeth. "Fluidized bed utilization of South Australian coals / Anna Elisabeth Wildegger-Gaissmaier." Thesis, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/18806.
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Jaforullah, Mohammad. "Energy modelling in a general equilibrium framework with alternative production specifications / Mohammad Jaforullah." Thesis, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/18835.
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Giesecke, James. "FEDERAL-F : a multi-regional multi-sectoral dynamic model of the Australian economy / by James A.D. Giesecke." 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/19810.
Full textAbstract:
Bibliography: p. 648-661.2 v. (xviii, 661 p. : ill.([1] col.) ; 30 cm.
Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2001
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Zheng, Letian. "Spatio-temporal models of Australian rainfall and temperature data." Phd thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/149934.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis presents three essays on the analysis of historical meteorological data in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has established a network of more than one thousand stations across Australia that have recordings dating from early last century, resulting in a large dataset of meteorological records. These data provide important information on the dynamics of the Australian climate system and systematic investigation using these data can help us to better understand our climate and prepare for possible changes. The purpose of this thesis is to develop models and methods to analyse such meteorological data from a statistical perspective.
In Chapter 2, a spatia-temporal model is developed based on monthly average temperature data at 177 locations in south-eastern Australia over 40 years. Guided by a preliminary analysis, a model with components dealing with spatial varying mean and seasonality, short-term and long-term temporal trends is built, and the space-time interaction is modelled by the kernel-convolution method. It is shown that the temperature has become warmer in most of the south-eastern Australia during the period under investigation.
In Chapter 3, a new duration-dependent Hidden Markov Model is proposed as an extension to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) which assumes that the transition probabilities are either constant or only depend on some independent variables. The possibility of duration-dependent effects is formally considered in this chapter where the transition probabilities are allowed to be explicitly correlated to duration - how long the hidden system has been in the current state. This approach is used to model the amount of daily rainfall amount at 5 locations in Darwin, Northern Territory.
For data arising from climate phenomenon, such as the temperature and rainfall data considered here, it is common for outliers to be present. The presence of outliers could unduly influence the results of any analysis that are conducted and make conclusion non-robust. But it is often difficult to detect them simultaneously because of the masking effect. Motivated by this problem, a general method is proposed in Chapter 4 for identifying multiple influential observations in regression models. The ability of this method is tested and illustrated by both a thorough simulation and several examples.
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O'Mara, Laurence Paul. "Linkages from the farm sector to the Australian macroeconomy : towards a theoretical and empirical analysis." Phd thesis, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/122769.
Full textAbstract:
The volatile fortunes of the Australian farm sector in recent
years, and particularly the severe drought of 1982-83, has renewed
interest, amongst policy makers and policy advisers, in the impact
which developments in the farm sector may have on the macroeconomy.
However, in the Australian literature, there are few detailed
theoretical or empirical analyses of farm/macro linkages. Further,
the existing Australian macroeconomic models do not provide a fully
suitable framework for undertaking such an analysis.
In view of these gaps or inadequacies in the existing
literature, the objective of the present thesis is, firstly, to make
a contribution towards the development of a macroeconomic model
framework which is suitable for analysing the role of the farm
sector in the Australian macroeconomy and, secondly, to undertake
some of the associated analysis.
To that end, a relatively large theoretical model is developed
in which the linkages between the farm sector and the macroeconomy
are emphasised. The model proves to be too large and complex to be
tractable using strictly formal algebraic techniques. Therefore, in
the first instance, the analysis is undertaken using a slightly less
rigorous geometric characterisation of the model. After this
geometric approach is fully exploited, some parts of the analysis
are extended and refined using theoretical simulation techniques.
A number of important results are established in these
theoretical analyses. It is shown that, in principle, the marketing
and institutional environment in which the farm sector operates is
of major importance in influencing the macroeconomic implications of
production and price shocks originating in the farm sector. It is
also demonstrated that shocks to the volume of farm production or to
farm prices may influence macroeconomic variables such as non-farm
G.D.P., the interest rate and the state of the balance of payments
in a direction which is at variance to that suggested by intuition
or conventional wisdom. For example, an exogenous (drought induced)
decline in farm production could have a beneficial impact on
non-farm output and the state of the balance of payments.
Alternatively, a drought which has a (more intuitive) adverse effect
on the overall level of economic activity may place upward pressure
on the interest rate. In a similar vein, an exogenous increase in
the price of farm commodities on overseas markets may reduce
domestic economic activity and worsen the balance of payments.
Because of the time and resources required to develop and use a
relatively large theoretical simulation model, it is not feasible,
within the context of the thesis, to apply theoretical simulation
techniques to each of the analyses which are undertaken less
formally using the geometric characterisation of the model.
However, the foundations are laid to permit the ready extension of
the theoretical simulation technique to these remaining cases as
part of a future research exercise. The existence of the
theoretical simulation model and analyses should also facilitate the
eventual development of an empirical version of the model. Given that some further post thesis research will be required
in order to develop an empirical version of the full model
structure, it was decided to seek some tentative and preliminary
empirical results from a very simple empirical version of the
model. A major conclusion to emerge from this empirical analysis is
that the farm sector may not have declined in relative importance as
a source of change in non~farm output over the period since the
early 1950s and may even have increased in importance. Such a
result serves to provide some additional motivation for persisting
with the line of research commenced in the thesis.
42
Hewitson, Christopher Michael. "Optimisation of water distribution systems using genetic algorithms for hydraulic and water quality issues / by Christopher Michael Hewitson." 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/19536.
Full textAbstract:
Corrigenda pasted onto front end paper.One folded col. map in pocket on back endpaper.
Bibliography: leaves 348-368.
xx, 368 leaves : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.) ; 30 cm.
Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library.
Develops a framework balancing water quality costs resulting from waterborne disease, disinfection by-product exposure and aesthetic concerns, against hydraulic costs, which include pipes, pumps and tanks. The genetic algorithms developed, successfully obtained the current optimal hydraulic solution, before adapting the model to incorporate water quality issues.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2000
43
Hewitson, Christopher Michael. "Optimisation of water distribution systems using genetic algorithms for hydraulic and water quality issues / by Christopher Michael Hewitson." Thesis, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/19536.
Full textAbstract:
Develops a framework balancing water quality costs resulting from waterborne disease, disinfection by-product exposure and aesthetic concerns, against hydraulic costs, which include pipes, pumps and tanks. The genetic algorithms developed, successfully obtained the current optimal hydraulic solution, before adapting the model to incorporate water quality issues.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2000
44
Crawley, P. D. "Optimum operating policies for multiple reservoir systems." Thesis, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/115778.
Full text
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Pitt, David G. W. "Actuarial models for the analysis of disability income insurance." Phd thesis, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/146548.
Full text
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Zhou, Shaohua. "Geophysical investigations on the formation mechanism of the Eromanga Baisn, Australia / by Shaohua Zhou." 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/19778.
Full textAbstract:
Bibliography : leaves 214-246.xiii, 246 leaves : ill., maps ; 30 cm.
Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Geology and Geophysics, 1992
47
Zhou, Shaohua. "Geophysical investigations on the formation mechanism of the Eromanga Baisn, Australia / by Shaohua Zhou." Thesis, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/19778.
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Tanthanongsakkun, Suparatana. "Essays on default risk : Australian evidence." Phd thesis, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/150689.
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Mui, Suet-Lam. "A cardiovascular disease policy model for Australia using a microsimulation approach." Phd thesis, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/147334.
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Crawley, P. D. (Philip David). "Risk and reliability assessment of multiple reservoir water supply headworks systems." 1995. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phc911.pdf.
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