Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Disaster modelling'
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COLOCCI, ALESSANDRA. "Modelling disaster risk reduction: decoding social-ecological interactions to foster transformative adaptation." Doctoral thesis, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11566/289629.
Full textThis research intends to contribute to the discussion on disaster risk reduction (DRR), investigating the question of how local communities should adjust to the surrounding threats. The first part adapted the panarchy heuristics to risk dynamics. The drawn theoretical model, the Social-Ecological Panarchy, could describe the conditions of risk and allow to recognise the two cores of DRR: disaster resilience and environmental sustainability. The model supported the development of a Combined Assessment of Resilience and Sustainability, focused on flood risk at the Municipal scale. The second part of the research performed a quantitative analysis through numerical indicators, that identified and characterised the levels of resilience and sustainability. The third part of the research employed qualitative tools (questionnaires) to gather the thoughts of local communities on the risks affecting their Municipalities. The analysis was applied to two case studies, Marche Region (Italy) and Hokkaidō (Japan). Results evidenced the role of flood events in determining the resilience capacities of local communities, and of the anthropic impacts for defining their sustainability. Most critical issues lied in the mountainous/hill areas. At the same time, social welfare and protection appeared pivotal in building local resilience, while the presence of vegetation shaped sustainability. Besides, a substantial mismatch emerged between assessed and perceived conditions of resilience and sustainability, generally in negative terms. Overall, it appeared that further efforts should be tailored to the innermost areas, though the overall region might benefit from consolidated resilience. At the same time, local populations seemed highly responsive to environmental issues, possibly endorsing the enhancement of sustainability. Eventually, these insights might inform risk reduction strategies, to foster a transformative adaptation of local communities, urged by exacerbating disruptive threats.
de, Ligt Vera. "Practical and conceptual issues in the use of agent-based modelling for disaster management." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2010. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11236/.
Full textFlores, Salas Alicia. "Evaluation of the use of lightweight concrete panels for post disaster house reconstruction using Building Information Modelling." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/evaluation-of-the-use-of-lightweight-concrete-panels-for-post-disaster-house-reconstruction-using-building-information-modelling(ce6ee2fc-2997-40ff-b489-f1fdf1a5dfb7).html.
Full textCardozo, Claudia Paola. "A spatially integrated modelling approach to landslide risk assessment: a case study of the Nova Friburgo disaster - RJ, Brazil." Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), 2018. http://urlib.net/sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2018/03.12.14.01.
Full textOs deslizamentos de terra causam enormes prejuízos econômicos e mortes em todo o mundo. O Mega desastre 2011 na região montanhosa do Rio de Janeiro é considerado o pior desastre na história do Brasil. Tradicionalmente, o tópico de risco foi analisado a partir de uma perspectiva puramente baseada na engenharia que provou ter uma resposta ineficaz para enfrentar os desafios impostos por fatores físicos e sociais, especialmente em países de baixa renda. Esta tese apresenta um marco conceitual para uma avaliação integrada do risco e realiza a proposta de maneira prática no município de Nova Friburgo, como um estudo de caso. Na primeira parte desta pesquisa, uma avaliação do componente físico do risco foi abordada. Três cenários de suscetibilidade a escorregamentos foram realizados usando um DEM de 10m de resolução espacial, dados geotécnicos e um inventário de deslizamentos. Os resultados sugerem que o cenário que utilizou uma ampla gama de valores de coesão foi capaz de prever quase 70% dos deslizamentos de terra inventariados e cerca de 50% do território com áreas propensas a deslizamentos. Na segunda parte desta tese, se analisou o componente humano de risco. Uma avaliação de vulnerabilidade social - usando o método SoVI - e a coleta de dados desagregados por idade, sexo e raça/etnia dos óbitos provocados pelos deslizamentos de 2011 foram realizados. Os resultados revelam uma vulnerabilidade social diferenciada entre os setores censitários. A maioria deles foi classificada como moderadamente vulnerável. Embora as áreas altamente vulneráveis não sejam amplamente distribuídas no território, elas são importantes devido à sua localização e implicações para a matriz econômica do município. Em relação aos óbitos por deslizamentos de terra, foram registradas434 vítimas. A análise espacial indica que a maior mortalidade se localizou nas zonas do noroeste e centro do município. O desastre provocado pelos deslizamentos de terra afetou aos homens e mulheres de maneira diferente. Na maioria das faixas etárias, morreram mais homens e meninos do que mulheres e meninas. Cinquenta por cento daqueles que perderam suas vidas eram os mais jovens e os idosos. A população negra teve uma taxa de mortalidade ligeiramente maior do que os Pardos e brancos. Os dados não revelaram uma tendência discernível na associação entre vulnerabilidade social e óbitos. Parece que a magnitude dos deslizamentos foi tão grande que todos os habitantes de Nova Friburgo foram igualmente atingidos, além das desigualdades expressas por sua vulnerabilidade social. Na terceira parte desta investigação, determinou-se a probabilidade de risco de deslizamento, para isso a vulnerabilidade social e a susceptibilidade aos deslizamentos de terra foram combinados usando o Modelo Aditivo Generalizado (GAM). Os resultados sugerem que, em terrenos instáveis, basta um nível moderado de vulnerabilidade social para aumentar a probabilidade de risco de deslizamento. Os resultados também destacam a capacidade do modelo de descobrir padrões oculto no conjunto de dados, capturando um efeito não linear da variável vulnerabilidade social e um efeito linear da variável estabilidade do terreno. Em conclusão, o marco conceptual proposto é genérico e flexível pelo que pode ser aplicado a outras áreas, escalas de análise e tipos de perigos naturais, embora seja necessária alguma adaptação, dependendo dos dados disponíveis. Além disso, a abordagem integrada desta tese destaca que é viável e necessário vincular dados de diferentes domínios científicos para melhor compreender o risco de desastres, reduzir riscos e reduzir perdas de vidas humanas e ativos econômicos por meio de ações baseadas em conhecimento. Deve-se notar que esta pesquisa está em conformidade com as diretrizes dadas na primeira área prioritária para a ação do Marco de Sendai para a Redução de Riscos de Desastres 2015-2030, que descreve a importância de "Compreender o risco de desastres". Finalmente, o conhecimento resultante desta pesquisa fornece à comunidade, às organizações e ao governo de Nova Friburgo uma base para compreender o risco relacionado a um perigo natural específico: "os deslizamentos" que podem ser aproveitados para obter uma preparação melhor e respostas eficazes a desastres futuros e também para promover sociedades resilientes aos desastres.
Shobeiri, Nejad Seyed Abdelhamid. "Modelling the Economic Impact of Extreme Events on Critical Infrastructure Systems in Australian Industries – Case Study in Finance and Tourism." Thesis, Griffith University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367136.
Full textThesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith School of Environment
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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Raillani, Hajar. "Disaster mοdelling and emergency facilities lοcatiοn under uncertainties : a case study οf the Μοrοccan relief supply chain." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Normandie, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024NORMIR10.
Full textDisaster modelling and facility location are critical aspects of disaster management that help to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of relief supply chains. However, the inherent uncertainties associated with disasters and relief supply chains can significantly impact the effectiveness of such models. To address this challenge, the thesis proposes the use of uncertainty quantification-based models and hidden Markov based models for disaster modelling in the context of the Moroccan relief supply chain. The thesis initiates by conceptualizing the Moroccan relief supply chain, comprehensively outlining its design, activities, and the various actors involved in the humanitarian process, then, a detailed analysis was conducted to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the Moroccan relief supply chain. This involved a deep examination of uncertainty sources within the humanitarian process, to make a good understanding of challenges faced within the Moroccan relief supply chain and identify the specific requirements. Following this conceptual groundwork, the proposed models are then applied to a dedicated case study of the Moroccan relief supply chain. This practical application aims to validate the effectiveness of the uncertainty quantification-based models and hidden Markov-based models in a real-world scenario, providing valuable insights into their applicability, utility, and potential impact on the complex dynamics of the humanitarian field. The results demonstrate that the uncertainty quantification-based model and the hidden Markov based model can significantly improve the robustness and efficiency of the supply chain network in term of disaster prediction. The uncertainty quantification-based model enables to make prediction of the potential human impact of disasters and the most sensitive regions which can help in the evaluation of the robustness of the supply chain network under different scenarios, considering various sources of uncertainty, such as demand and uncertainties on documented data. On the other hand, the hidden Markov based model is used to predict the disaster behaviour in next occurrence, based on historical data and trends. This model provides important insights into the potential of HMMs in disaster management and humanitarian logistics and emphasize the importance of these models in protecting disasters impact, vulnerable populations and mitigating the effects of natural disasters in the future. The thesis aims also to identify the optimal facility locations and develop an efficient disaster response plan that can mitigate the impact of disasters, this stations will have for function the reception, control, support and the distribution of help in case of natural disasters (earthquakes, floods, torrential floods, locust invasions, drought, landslides ...) or man-made disasters (technological accidents, terrorist attacks, road accidents, pollution ...), through the integration of different actors in the Moroccan relief supply chain (Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Planning of Moroccan Territories, the civil protection, military, NGOs ...) and by considering various sources of uncertainty, such as demand, transportation time, and supply disruptions. The optimal facility locations identified by the models provide a better coverage of the affected areas, thereby improving the speed and effectiveness of the disaster response plan. The thesis highlights the significance of incorporating uncertainty analysis in disaster modelling and provides insights into the relief supply chain management in Morocco. The findings of this thesis can be useful for policymakers and practitioners in disaster management to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of relief supply chains
Chen, Wanying. "Modelling the logisitcs response to disasters." Thesis, Lyon, INSA, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015ISAL0046/document.
Full textThis thesis is devoted to optimize the health care logistics which can support emergency management plans to reduce the impacts of natural and/or man-made disasters. After the review of relevant papers, two main gaps have been found in the current studies. One is that most of the researches are not based on real cases. The other is that some main characteristics of disasters are neglected when disasters are studied. Therefore, based on real case scenarios, the thesis studies different disasters (natural and/or man-made disasters) separately according to the characteristics of disasters. Natural disasters may be predicted but are difficult to avoid. Therefore, the evacuation of potential victims and the dimensioning of relief resources are crucially important. A three-step approach is proposed to study the resource dimensioning and the organization of emergency management plan (French White Plan) facing natural disasters. In our three-step approach, the first step builds a framework model to get the insights of emergency management plan clearly. The second step establishes a global model (a linear model) to predict the quantity of required resources for evacuation. The third step proposes a detailed simulation model to reflect the real world more precisely. The hospital evacuation under the guidance of a French Extended White Plan in case of a flood has been taken as a real case scenario to test the correctness of our approach. The man-made disasters and the outbreak of diseases can be large-scale disasters which require a high demand of resources. In this thesis, a model for logistics response to bioterrorist attack with a non-contagious agent and another model for the logistics response to epidemics have been proposed. Multi-period and multi-echelon inventory management problems have been studied. The two models (a linear model and a non linear model respectively) combine the main characteristics of disasters: the propagation of the disease, the relevant medical interventions and the logistics deployment together. The number of patients in different disease stages and the required medical resources for each period can be estimated. The factors affecting the number of deaths and the different medical intervention policies can also be evaluated with the two models. With the help of the models, the decision makers can get an idea of the disaster situation and the relevant medical responses from a strategy level. A logistics response to an anonymous bioterrorist attack with anthrax to a shopping center and the logistics response to the outbreak of H5N1 are taken as real case scenarios to test the effectiveness of the models respectively
Chandratilake, (nee Weerasekara) Sonali Evanjali. "Spatial Modelling of Gastroenteritis Prevalence Following the February 22, 2011 Earthquake and Identification of Successful Factors Preventing Outbreaks at Emergency Centres." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Department of Geological Sciences, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/9185.
Full textDufresne, Anja. "Influence of runout path material on rock and debris avalanche mobility : field evidence and analogue modelling : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geological Sciences/Hazard and Disaster Management, University of Canterbury, New Zealand /." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geological Sciences, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/3076.
Full textHill, Rebecca Elizabeth Jane. "Diagnosing co-ordination problems by modelling the emergency management response to disasters." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2005. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1420898/.
Full textBertin, Camilla <1996>. "I Disastri Naturali nella Destinazione: Analisi e Implementazione dei Modelli di Disaster Management in uno Studio Empirico Il Caso dei Terremoti del 2016-2017 nelle Località Turistiche dell'Umbria." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/17748.
Full textNOTARANGELO, NICLA MARIA. "A Deep Learning approach for monitoring severe rainfall in urban catchments using consumer cameras. Models development and deployment on a case study in Matera (Italy) Un approccio basato sul Deep Learning per monitorare le piogge intense nei bacini urbani utilizzando fotocamere generiche. Sviluppo e implementazione di modelli su un caso di studio a Matera (Italia)." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi della Basilicata, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11563/147016.
Full textNegli ultimi 50 anni, le alluvioni si sono confermate come il disastro naturale più frequente e diffuso a livello globale. Tra gli impatti degli eventi meteorologici estremi, conseguenti ai cambiamenti climatici, rientrano le alterazioni del regime idrogeologico con conseguente incremento del rischio alluvionale. Il monitoraggio delle precipitazioni in tempo quasi reale su scala locale è essenziale per la mitigazione del rischio di alluvione in ambito urbano e periurbano, aree connotate da un'elevata vulnerabilità. Attualmente, la maggior parte dei dati sulle precipitazioni è ottenuta da misurazioni a terra o telerilevamento che forniscono informazioni limitate in termini di risoluzione temporale o spaziale. Ulteriori problemi possono derivare dagli elevati costi. Inoltre i pluviometri sono distribuiti in modo non uniforme e spesso posizionati piuttosto lontano dai centri urbani, comportando criticità e discontinuità nel monitoraggio. In questo contesto, un grande potenziale è rappresentato dall'utilizzo di tecniche innovative per sviluppare sistemi inediti di monitoraggio a basso costo. Nonostante la diversità di scopi, metodi e campi epistemologici, la letteratura sugli effetti visivi della pioggia supporta l'idea di sensori di pioggia basati su telecamera, ma tende ad essere specifica per dispositivo scelto. La presente tesi punta a indagare l'uso di dispositivi fotografici facilmente reperibili come rilevatori-misuratori di pioggia, per sviluppare una fitta rete di sensori a basso costo a supporto dei metodi tradizionali con una soluzione rapida incorporabile in dispositivi intelligenti. A differenza dei lavori esistenti, lo studio si concentra sulla massimizzazione del numero di fonti di immagini (smartphone, telecamere di sorveglianza generiche, telecamere da cruscotto, webcam, telecamere digitali, ecc.). Ciò comprende casi in cui non sia possibile regolare i parametri fotografici o ottenere scatti in timeline o video. Utilizzando un approccio di Deep Learning, la caratterizzazione delle precipitazioni può essere ottenuta attraverso l'analisi degli aspetti percettivi che determinano se e come una fotografia rappresenti una condizione di pioggia. Il primo scenario di interesse per l'apprendimento supervisionato è una classificazione binaria; l'output binario (presenza o assenza di pioggia) consente la rilevazione della presenza di precipitazione: gli apparecchi fotografici fungono da rivelatori di pioggia. Analogamente, il secondo scenario di interesse è una classificazione multi-classe; l'output multi-classe descrive un intervallo di intensità delle precipitazioni quasi istantanee: le fotocamere fungono da misuratori di pioggia. Utilizzando tecniche di Transfer Learning con reti neurali convoluzionali, i modelli sviluppati sono stati compilati, addestrati, convalidati e testati. La preparazione dei classificatori ha incluso la preparazione di un set di dati adeguato con impostazioni verosimili e non vincolate: dati aperti, diversi dati di proprietà del National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention - NIED (telecamere dashboard in Giappone accoppiate con dati radar multiparametrici ad alta precisione) e attività sperimentali condotte nel simulatore di pioggia su larga scala del NIED. I risultati sono stati applicati a uno scenario reale, con la sperimentazione attraverso una telecamera di sorveglianza preesistente che utilizza la connettività 5G fornita da Telecom Italia S.p.A. nella città di Matera (Italia). L'analisi si è svolta su più livelli, fornendo una panoramica sulle questioni relative al paradigma del rischio di alluvione in ambito urbano e questioni territoriali specifiche inerenti al caso di studio. Queste ultime includono diversi aspetti del contesto, l'importante ruolo delle piogge dal guidare l'evoluzione millenaria della morfologia urbana alla determinazione delle criticità attuali, oltre ad alcune componenti di un prototipo Web per la comunicazione del rischio alluvionale su scala locale. I risultati ottenuti e l'implementazione del modello corroborano la possibilità che le tecnologie a basso costo e le capacità locali possano aiutare a caratterizzare la forzante pluviometrica a supporto dei sistemi di allerta precoce basati sull'identificazione di uno stato meteorologico significativo. Il modello binario ha raggiunto un'accuratezza e un F1-score di 85,28% e 0,86 per il set di test e di 83,35% e 0,82 per l'implementazione nel caso di studio. Il modello multi-classe ha raggiunto un'accuratezza media e F1-score medio (macro-average) di 77,71% e 0,73 per il classificatore a 6 vie e 78,05% e 0,81 per quello a 5 classi. Le prestazioni migliori sono state ottenute nelle classi relative a forti precipitazioni e assenza di pioggia, mentre le previsioni errate sono legate a precipitazioni meno estreme. Il metodo proposto richiede requisiti operativi limitati, può essere implementato facilmente e rapidamente in casi d'uso reali, sfruttando dispositivi preesistenti con un uso parsimonioso di risorse economiche e computazionali. La classificazione può essere eseguita su singole fotografie scattate in condizioni disparate da dispositivi di acquisizione di uso comune, ovvero da telecamere statiche o in movimento senza regolazione dei parametri. Questo approccio potrebbe essere particolarmente utile nelle aree urbane in cui i metodi di misurazione come i pluviometri incontrano difficoltà di installazione o limitazioni operative o in contesti in cui non sono disponibili dati di telerilevamento o radar. Il sistema non si adatta a scene che sono fuorvianti anche per la percezione visiva umana. I limiti attuali risiedono nelle approssimazioni intrinseche negli output. Per colmare le lacune evidenti e migliorare l'accuratezza della previsione dell'intensità di precipitazione, sarebbe possibile un'ulteriore raccolta di dati. Sviluppi futuri potrebbero riguardare l'integrazione con ulteriori esperimenti in campo e dati da crowdsourcing, per promuovere comunicazione, partecipazione e dialogo aumentando la resilienza attraverso consapevolezza pubblica e impegno civico in una concezione di comunità smart.
(6630590), Nulee Jeong. "DISASTER RELIEF SUPPLY MODEL FOR LOGISTIC SURVIVABILITY." Thesis, 2019.
Find full textachieving the goal of supplying required relief goods to the affected people which further endangers them. Regarding the stated problem, this study explored the importance of
setting the profile of logistic agents that can survive for certain duration of times. Therefore, this research defines the “survivability” and the profile of logistic agents for surviving the last mile distribution through agent based modeling and simulation. Through simulations, this study uncovered that the logistic exercise could gain survivability with the certain number and organization of logistic agents. Proper formation of organization establish the logistics’ survivability, but excessive size can threaten the survivability.
Lakshay. "Efficient evacuation planning for emergency response." Thesis, 2018. http://localhost:8080/iit/handle/2074/7750.
Full textRiddell, Graeme Angus. "Foresight for risk – using scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk." Thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/122575.
Full textThesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, 2019
Fry, John, and J. M. Binner. "Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media." 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17569.
Full textSocial media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.
Supported by EPSRC (IDEAS Factory - Game theory and adaptive networks for smart evacuations, EP/I005765/1)
Baraka, Jean-Claude Munyaka. "Modelling systems for an effective humanitarian supply chain for disaster relief operations in the SADC region." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10321/1696.
Full textThe SADC region has seen both man-made and natural disasters killing over 90 thousand people and affecting millions in the past 33 years. Most of these deaths were as a result of lack of infrastructure and preparedness. Looking at the challenges for providing relief to victims/evacuees throughout the entire disaster and post-disaster periods in the region, the emphasis of this thesis is on last mile transportation of resources, victims, emergency supplies, aiming to optimize the effectiveness (quickI response) and efficiency (low-cost) of logistics activities including humanitarian supply chain. A survey was used for data collection. Statistical analysis helped determine the impact of disaster relief chains and lead to the development of a mathematical model that shall equip the region with mechanisms for response and recovery operations. An EXCEL optimization tool was used to find the optimal way of transporting relief in the region in case of a disaster.
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XU, YUE. "A Study on Modelling Spatial-Temporal Human Mobility Patterns for Improving Personalized Weather Warning." 2018. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/677.
Full textKraus, Michal. "Modelling of ecological disasters: fire occurrences in the area of Vysoké Tatry after calamity incidents." Master's thesis, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-272677.
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