Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Dette à court terme'
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Mialocq, Denis. "Le financement à court terme des moyennes entreprises non cotées françaises : etude en données de panel." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017BORD0654/document.
Short-term financing is forgotten by theory of corporate finance. However, French medium-sized firms use a lot this source of funding. The objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of short-term financing for these firms. The first part aims to establish a literature review of theories to explain the use of short-term financing. The second part empirically checks these theories on two samples, specifically 201 family businesses and 1,453 managerial firms. On the one hand, it is a question of characterizing the unlisted medium-sized enterprises and on the other hand, highlighting the determinants of the use of short-term financing. The primary results indicate that short-term financing is a management tool for the medium-sized enterprise. It can also have two functions, one compensatory and / or one passive cash. Furthermore, it brings out that managerial and family businesses exploit short-term financing differently
Aghasian, Mostafa. "Three essays on short term credit." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024UPSLD004.
This thesis explores the role of the shadow banking structures in different short-term credit provision settings. The thesis consists of three chapters serving as independent research articles. Each chapter analyzes the strategic interactions among financial intermediaries, firms, and regulatory bodies. In the first chapter, the role of captive finance subsidiaries in providing monitoring information to the parent firm is evaluated. In the second chapter, the role of availability of financial risk management instruments on firms’ trade credit provision is evaluated, for this purpose, the heterogeneous availability of trade credit insurances in the EA is explored. The third chapter evaluates the role of information sensitivity in the success of banks to issue money like securities, for this purpose, banks’ CP issuance during the regulatory reforms that affected the demand of money market funds is evaluated
Sauvée-Crambert, Roselyne. "Les strategies des sicav court terme." Rennes 1, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989REN11002.
The objectives of this thesis consist in describing about comportments of the "sicav court terme". The first part concerns the developments of the sicav or again the development strategies of these ones on the financial market. It permits to consider the significance of their phenomenon through their number, their sums, all the activity and all the consequences on the financial market. The second part permits to consider an other aspect of the strategies of these tools : the strategies really lead in bond portfolio managment. The essential problem was to know if these organisms, with their specific objectives of short term, followed the market technics and how they behaved on this market. To answer this problem, we have made a theoritical study of the principal mechanismes of the bond market (elements of prevision : term structure of interest rates, matif ; elements of risk : duration. . . ) and we have attempted to check in the reality the comportments of some sicav through an empirical study
Murched, Maya. "Capital humain, dette publique et croissance économique à long terme." Thesis, Angers, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016ANGE0003/document.
Economic growth and its driving forces have been the maintopic preoccupying economic researchers since long time in macroeconomic branch. Public investment in human capital through educational system plays an ultimate role in boosting economic growth and development, this role has taken a place since the innovative dawn of endogenous growth theory. The focus and efforts of investing in human capital could be destabilized by the global and recent return of sovereign debt crisis in several countries, which continues its rise since theearly 2007, and the after-crisis necessary adjusting policies. Getting back wise policies should be composed of mixture of growth fostering activities, including the investment in human capital, austerity and forbearance.The main purpose of this thesis is to provide new empirical inferences on debt-growth relationship and its interaction with human capital formation. Estimates are carried on a recent and complete data set that spans over 22 years and involves 76 countries worldwide. The range of invested variables encompasses many macroeconomic aggregates such as : GDP annual growthrates, public debt to GDP ratio, and public education expenditure to GDP ratio, average schooling years, inflation rate, and others. Using a superior estimation semi-parametric technic which accounts for some data issues, the empirical results suggest a heterogeneous impact of public debt and education expenditures levels on GDP growth rates. Henceforth, the use of education expenditure in the whole sample is inefficient,where policy makers should adjust and well manage the function of these expenditure in line with the public efforts to reduce debt high levels and rise economic growth. We also show that the use of textual analysis tools in economic studies, such in growth literature, offers a rapid and total lecture of the hidden research trends embodied in the huge empirical and theoretical literature of economic growth
BOUCHET, JACQUES. "Filtres endocaves percutanes : suivi a court terme et a long terme." Lyon 1, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991LYO1M371.
Khoury, Naaman. "Prévision à court terme de la consommation." Lille : A.N.R.T, 1985. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb36105530w.
Jaeglé, Thomas. "L'actionnaire de court-terme dans les offres publiques." Phd thesis, Université René Descartes - Paris V, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00936020.
Castel, Paulette. "Modèle économétrique de court terme de l'économie uruguayenne." Paris 1, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993PA010031.
A quarterly macroeconomic model of the uruguayan economy is built based on a theoretical model which merges monopolistic competition and disiquilibrium theory. The model also takes into account the main features of the uruguayan economy, such as a long lasting inward orientation, a tradition of high inflation and a signification trade integration with argentina and brazil these features account for increasing returns to scale in manufacturing, generalzed indexation and the rejection of the "small country" assumption. The econometric model is written in a way that allows identifying the structural parameters of the uruguayan economy. The estimates correspond to period 1978 - 1988. The results show that in 1985 (the year of democratic recovery), the revival of unionism increased the workers' market power in wage bargaining. The results also allow to interpret uruguayan business cycles in this period in terms of disequilibria between aggregate supply and demand. The stability of the model is checked by means of a long-run simulation. The latter provides the baseline case to assess the plausible short-run effects of a set of policies aimed either at stabilizing prices or at expanding output
Deroche, Madeleine-Sophie. "Détection à court-terme et long-terme des tempêtes hivernales à fort potentiel d'impact." Thesis, Paris 6, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA066578/document.
The research carried out during the PhD deals with winter windstorms with high economic damage potential in Europe and can be divided in two parts. The first part aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on European winter windstorms and relies on datasets covering long periods of time (>30 years) either in the past or in the future. The objective of the second part is to forecast potential losses and claims associated with an upcoming extreme windstorm by using forecast data updated every six hours. The overall objective of the first part is to provide a medium-term view of what could be the winter windstorms in Europe during the 21st century. It thus completes the short-term vision of the risk given by the Catastrophe Models used by the (re)insurers to assess the cost of the risk on their portfolio. A new methodology has been developed to define the damage potential associated with European winter windstorms. The novelty of the methodology relies in the use of several variables capturing different spatiotemporal scales and the coupling that exists between variables during the cyclogenesis. Seeking for events sharing a similar intense signature simultaneously in the relative vorticity at 850 hPa, the mean sea level pressure and the surface wind speed lead to the detection of a small group of events. Comparing the number of events that belong to this group and their intensity in reanalysis datasets and different simulations of the future climate can provide enough information to insurance companies on the potential evolution of this hazard in a future climate. A first paper on the methodology has been accepted in the journal of Natural Hazard and Earth Science System.The methodology has been applied to the datasets provided by Global Climate Models (GCM) participating to the CMIP5 project. The goal is to assess the ability of GCMs to reproduce winter windstorms in Europe and the potential impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of such events. A second paper presenting the results obtained from this second study will be submitted.The second part of the PhD focuses on the project Severe WIndstorms Forecasting Tool (SWIFT). The objective is to develop an early warning tool that detects an upcoming winter windstorms in meteorological forecasts updated every six hours and provides interested AXA entities with an alert on the upcoming windstorm as well as an estimate of the potential losses and claims.The tool has been developed in parallel of the research project and consists in two modules. In the first module, particularly intense systems are detected in meteorological forecasts and the associated gust footprint is extracted. In the second module, wind speeds are translated into a loss and a number of claims thanks to vulnerability curves. When a system is detected, an alert is sent with the appropriate information on the event propagation and the associated loss. The tool has been running automatically for the 2013 – 2014 winter season and detected most of the events that passed over Europe
Deroche, Madeleine-Sophie. "Détection à court-terme et long-terme des tempêtes hivernales à fort potentiel d'impact." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris 6, 2014. https://accesdistant.sorbonne-universite.fr/login?url=https://theses-intra.sorbonne-universite.fr/2014PA066578.pdf.
The research carried out during the PhD deals with winter windstorms with high economic damage potential in Europe and can be divided in two parts. The first part aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on European winter windstorms and relies on datasets covering long periods of time (>30 years) either in the past or in the future. The objective of the second part is to forecast potential losses and claims associated with an upcoming extreme windstorm by using forecast data updated every six hours. The overall objective of the first part is to provide a medium-term view of what could be the winter windstorms in Europe during the 21st century. It thus completes the short-term vision of the risk given by the Catastrophe Models used by the (re)insurers to assess the cost of the risk on their portfolio. A new methodology has been developed to define the damage potential associated with European winter windstorms. The novelty of the methodology relies in the use of several variables capturing different spatiotemporal scales and the coupling that exists between variables during the cyclogenesis. Seeking for events sharing a similar intense signature simultaneously in the relative vorticity at 850 hPa, the mean sea level pressure and the surface wind speed lead to the detection of a small group of events. Comparing the number of events that belong to this group and their intensity in reanalysis datasets and different simulations of the future climate can provide enough information to insurance companies on the potential evolution of this hazard in a future climate. A first paper on the methodology has been accepted in the journal of Natural Hazard and Earth Science System.The methodology has been applied to the datasets provided by Global Climate Models (GCM) participating to the CMIP5 project. The goal is to assess the ability of GCMs to reproduce winter windstorms in Europe and the potential impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of such events. A second paper presenting the results obtained from this second study will be submitted.The second part of the PhD focuses on the project Severe WIndstorms Forecasting Tool (SWIFT). The objective is to develop an early warning tool that detects an upcoming winter windstorms in meteorological forecasts updated every six hours and provides interested AXA entities with an alert on the upcoming windstorm as well as an estimate of the potential losses and claims.The tool has been developed in parallel of the research project and consists in two modules. In the first module, particularly intense systems are detected in meteorological forecasts and the associated gust footprint is extracted. In the second module, wind speeds are translated into a loss and a number of claims thanks to vulnerability curves. When a system is detected, an alert is sent with the appropriate information on the event propagation and the associated loss. The tool has been running automatically for the 2013 – 2014 winter season and detected most of the events that passed over Europe
Mathis, Alexandre. "Une Approche en terme de processus stochastiques vectoriels de la dette publique française." Paris, EHESS, 1990. http://www.theses.fr/1990EHES0026.
The aim of this work is to study empirically the effect of public dgbt growth on a set of macroeconomic variables. The approach used is vectorial time series analysis. The problem is to identify a vectotial autoregressive model on two sets of variables. In order to dealt with the identification problem inherent in this representation i use both granger causality tests in vectorial autoregressive processes and information criteria. The propagation of an exogeneous shock in the model is studied from the corresponding moving-average representation. Finally, i analyse the connection between vectorial autoregressive processes and univariate autoregressive moving-average processes of their composants
MONIKHEIM, SABINE. "Etude psychoacoustique de la fatigue auditive a court terme." Paris 5, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991PA05H070.
Auditory fatigue refers to the temporary loss of auditory sensitivity that takes place after exposing the ear to an intense sound. The psychoacoustic characteristics of temporary loudness shift (tls) are different from those of temporary threshold shift (tts). The only existing model is not able to explain these differences in a consistent way. The present study compares tts and tls systematically by varying the parameters of exposure (level, duration and frequency) and testing (level) and frequency). Recovery was measured for a period warying between three and five and half minutes. The results show an important short-term tls (recovery time : five minutes) after a moderate or high-level exposure. This kind of tls is also present at test frequencies at which the auditory threshold is unchanged or only slightly elevated. By increasing the level of exposure the tls spreads to frequencies situated more and more above the test frequency. We suggest-in contrast to the previous model explaining auditory fatigue by a single mechanism (progressive deterioration of the most sensible elements of the auditory function) - the existence of a second mechanism short-term fatigue which is similar to a sensory adaptation regulation under the effects of stimulation
Shortridge-Baillot, Joan. "Similarité et distincitivité en mémoire à court terme verbale." Grenoble 2, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999GRE29036.
Pirotte, Alain. "Court terme et long terme en économétrie : l'apport de la cointégration aux données de panel." Paris 12, 1994. http://www.theses.fr/1994PA122009.
Sum, Map. "Marché du travail et emploi au Cambodge : contraintes à court terme et enjeux à long terme." Lyon 2, 2007. http://theses.univ-lyon2.fr/documents/lyon2/2007/sum_m.
The objective of the thesis consists of characterise the labour market in Cambodia by using all theoretical information. We show a detail view of changes that have happened in the Cambodian labour market and precising how these changes affect population and economy. The result of labour market analysis will show the quasi non-existing of the labour market and employment policies in Cambodia and that some theoretical framework designed to improving labour market respond partly to the actual situation of Cambodia. This is the reason for which we try to analyse the Cambodian labour market in order to find out all short and long term constraints which lock up the good functioning of Cambodian labour market and which obstruct the application of the theoretical framework. We try finally to view long term strategies for improving labour market and employment situation in Cambodia
Sum, Map Baudry Bernard. "Marché du travail et emploi au Cambodge contraintes à court terme et enjeux à long terme /." Lyon : Université Lumière Lyon 2, 2007. http://theses.univ-lyon2.fr/sdx/theses/lyon2/2007/sum_m.
Ben, Salem Sinda. "Gestion robuste de la production électrique à horizon court terme." Phd thesis, Ecole Centrale Paris, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00594242.
Elia, Nicolas. "Résultats à court et moyen terme de l'intervention de Haller." Bordeaux 2, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997BOR23055.
Cachin, Antoine. "Mouvements internationaux de capitaux à court terme et équilibre économique." Lille : A.N.R.T, 1985. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb36105310q.
Dione, Mamadou. "Prévision court terme de la production éolienne par Machine learning." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020IPPAG004.
The energy transition law passed by the French government has specific implications for renewable energies, in particular for their remuneration mechanism. Until 2015, a purchase obligation contract made it possible to sell electricity from wind power at a fixed rate. From 2015 onwards, some wind farms began to be exempted from the purchase obligation. This is because wind energy is starting to be sold directly on the market by the producers because of the breach of the purchase obligation contracts. Distribution system operators and transmission system operators require or even oblige producers to provide at least a production forecast one day in advance in order to rebalance the market. Over- or underestimation could be subject to penalties. There is, therefore, a huge need for accurate forecasts. It is in this context that this thesis was launched with the aim of proposing a model for predicting wind farms production by machine learning. We have production data and real wind measurements as well as data from meteorological models. We first compared the performances of the GFS and ECMWF models and studied the relationships between these two models through canonical correlation analysis. We then applied machine learning models to validate a first random forest prediction model. We then modeled the spatio-temporal wind dynamics and integrated it into the prediction model, which improved the prediction error by 3%. We also studied the selection of grid points by a variable group importance measure using random forests. Random forest prediction intervals associated with point forecasts of wind farm production are also studied. The forecasting model resulting from this work was developed to enable the ENGIE Group to have its own daily forecasts for all its wind farms
Chérif, Lobna. "Traitement d'ordre temporel en mémoire à court-terme et reproduction temporelle." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ57854.pdf.
Cadren, Muriel. "Modélisation à court terme des consommations de produits pétroliers en France." Dijon, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998DIJOE007.
The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the cointegration. In this context, the short term econometric modelling of petroleum product demand doesn't only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error- correction techniques and cointegration. It's fitting to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometric modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of energy demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications. Its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered
Kissas, Christos. "Les déterminants de l'évolution du prix de l'or à court terme." Paris 9, 1986. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=1986PA090020.
This study concentrates on the spot price of gold in the international markets : that is the price of the troy ounce of fine gold in the london bullion market. The value index of a gold mines shares portfolio is considered too. Econometric investigation is carried on for the period : 1971-1983 with monthly data, and 1975-1984 with weekly data. The first part of the study focuses on the organization of the international gold trade : supply and demand, gold investment media, spot and futures markets, as well as an analysis of the influence of macroeconomic and political factors on the monthly price of gold. The second part of the study is concerned with the efficiency of the gold market and especially with the random walk model. Empirical work is done for gold price changes distributions (normal and paretian hypotheses), statistical dependance and eventually mechanical trading rules (financial filters). The results of this study are used to form the basis of a theoretical discussion about the so-called "two parameters model" which is the foundation of modern finance
Eslami, Javad. "Étude de l'endommagement à court et long terme d'une roche poreuse." Thesis, Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, INPL, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010INPL006N/document.
Among the different phenomena responsible for the short and long term deformation of porous rocks, we have studied in this work the damage of an oolithic limestone in the semi-brittle regime and under different hydrous conditions. For this purpose, we have developed an experimental device allowing the simultaneous and continuous measurement of strains and elastic wave velocities, as well as acoustic emissions, on the same sample under mechanical loading and under different hydrous conditions. Particularly, the experimental setup allows simultaneous and continuous measurement of the five elastic wave velocities in 3 different directions of propagation (axial, lateral and off-axis) and 3 different directions of polarization (P and 2 perpendicular S), this almost instantaneously. These velocity measurements allow to assess the acoustic tensor at any time and thus to continuously monitor the evolution of the damage of the rock. The short and long term damage behavior of the limestone is modelled thanks to a phenomenological model which is based on a macroscopic generalization of the microscopic mechanisms highlighted by the experimental study (sliding-opening of existing cracks, nucleation of new cracks, propagation and coalescence of cracks). The short-term model reproduces very well the instantaneous behavior (stress-strain curves and evolution of elastic moduli). The long-term model, whose formulation is uncoupled from the short-term model, allows reproducing qualitatively the experimental creep curves
Kissas, Christos. "Les Déterminants de l'évolution du prix de l'or à court terme." Grenoble 2 : ANRT, 1986. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb375987587.
Roux, Helene. "Déterminants de l'évolution à court terme des soins hospitaliers et du devenir à long terme dans l'anorexie mentale sévère." Phd thesis, Université Paris Sud - Paris XI, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00981851.
Roux, Hélène. "Déterminants de l’évolution à court terme des soins hospitaliers et du devenir à long terme dans l’anorexie mentale sévère." Thesis, Paris 11, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA11T017/document.
Anorexia nervosa is a disease that affects both mental and physical health. The most severe forms as they require long hospital care, with a drop-out rate very high (20% of adolescents and 60% of adults) are those with the worst prognosis. But this drop-out (or early exit) generates both relapse and a chronicisation. If the long-term outcome of these patients is documented, studies focusing on the most severe forms are few, and among them, those taking into account both the somatic and psychic aspects of their outcome are almost nonexistent. That’s why, after focusing on epidemiological data on anorexia nervosa, we chose to focus our thesis on first the search for factors explaining the drop-out and may become therapeutic targets, and second the physical and psychological outcome of these subjects ten years after hospitalization.The first study of 180 patients from ten centers taking care of severe anorexic patients, relied on a prospective clinical multicenter epidemiological study called EVALHOSPITAM. Our objective was to identify predictors of drop-out during hospitalization for anorexia nervosa. Indeed, taking into account such factors upon admission might help reduce drop-out during hospitalization, and thus help to improve the prognosis of these subjects.The second study presents the results of an outcome study of patients hospitalized during adolescence on average nine years before. Our work focuses on the somatic outcome of long-term patients who suffered from anorexia nervosa, its link to psychiatric outcome and finally a comparison with a sample from the general population of the same age and sex
Béreau, Sophie. "Dynamique non linéraire du taux de change : du court au long terme." Paris 10, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010PA100115.
Exchange rate modeling remains one of the most challenging issues in International Macroeconomics and Finance. This dissertation aims at feeding the debate and focuses on the explanation of nonlinearities in exchange rate dynamics. In the first two chapters, we address the equilibrium exchange rate concept and propose a framework in which all the major approaches (FEER, BEER, PPP) appear as solutions of the same partial equilibrium model, although at different time horizons. Exploring the robustness of those different measures we show that the BEER concept is more accurate in assessing stable long-run anchor values. We then devote the next two chapters to the investigation of potential nonlinearities. The third chapter explores the nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its long-run equilibrium BEER value, using a novel threshold error correction panel model. Eventually, the last essay deals with a more theoretical exercise and proposes an extension of the traditional behavioral finance model in which agents differ in their forecast time horizon
Ihsane, Imane. "Prévision à court terme et gestion des consommations d'énergie électrique dans l'habitat." Thesis, Nantes, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020NANT4019.
In this thesis, a short-term forecasting model of electricity demand based on artificial neural networks was developed. First of all, particular care was taken in the selection of the relevant input variables of this model. Then it was used to reproduce the load curves at the scale of an individual housing and at scale of a region. The comparaison between these two levels of aggregation highlighted the limitations of the indicators for assessing the quality of the forecast. As a result, new indicators adapted to residential load profiles were created. In particular for error detection during peak periods. The thesis work also presents an approach to managing the demand for electrical loads. The particularity of this strategy lies in the consumer’s participation in reducing peak electricity consumption and in benefiting from advantageous off-peak electricity rates, which makes him an active consumer. Emphasis will also be placed on consumer comfort. The principle consists in establishing an allocation of priorities to electrical loads. Depending on these and on a setpoint power to be respected, the algorithm grants a satisfaction (or not) to the requests for activation of the loads. In the absence of sufficient usable power, unmet demand, in particular from heating systems, can impact the thermal comfort of the user. In order to remedy this problem, the management methodology has been improved by combining it with the short-term forecasting of load consumption. This forecast identifies the heaters whose activation will be interrupted in the future and anticipates their activation under power and priority constraints. The results obtained are promising and validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodologies
Cormier, Vincent. "Compressibilité à court et à long terme d'assemblages de particules de roche." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/25669.
Short term and long term compressibility of assemblages of rock particles was studied through one-dimensional compression tests in a large oedometer cell. It was found that short term compressibility tends to be more important for samples with a wide grain size distribution curve, a low density and when the sample was wetted prior to the oedometer test. Additional tests on samples of different rock size reveals that the grain size effect on compressibility is negligible for the samples tested. Furthermore, the compressibility was successfully related to the breakage factor, Bg, highlighting the importance of breakage in such tests. As for long term compressibility, it appears that the ratio between the time-dependent index and the compressibility index, Cε, t/Cε, σ, tends to be a constant of about 0.02 for dry samples and 0.035 for saturated samples.
WIRTH, SYLVIA. "Memoire olfactive a court-terme : modulation pharmacologique et role du cortex entorhinal." Université Louis Pasteur (Strasbourg) (1971-2008), 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000STR13039.
Wahid, Faisal. "Optimisation de la rivière : enchères à court terme de l'hydroélectricité sous incertitude." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017SACLX030.
The hydro-bidding problem is about computing optimal offer policies in order to maximize the expected profit of a hydroelectric producer participating in an electricity market. It combines the decision making process of both the trader and the hydro-dispatcher into one stochastic optimization problem. It is a sequential decision making problem, and can be formulated as a multistage stochastic program.These models can be difficult to solve when the value function is not concave. In this thesis, we study some of the limitations of the hydro-bidding problem, and propose a new stochastic optimization method called the Mixed-Integer Dynamic Approximation Scheme (MIDAS). MIDAS solves nonconvex, stochastic programs with monotonic value functions. It works in similar fashion to the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP), but instead of using cutting planes, it uses step functions to create an outer approximation of the value function. MIDAS will converge almost surely to (T+1)ε optimal policies for continuous state variables, and to the exact optimum policy for integer state variables.We use MIDAS to solve three types of nonconvex hydro-bidding problem. The first hydro-bidding model we solve has integer state variables due to discrete production states. In this model we demonstrate that MIDAS constructs offer policies which are better than SDDP. The next hydro-bidding model has a mean reverting autoregressive price processs instead of a Markov chain. The last hydro-bidding incorporates headwater effects, where the power generation function is dependent on both the reservoir storage level and the turbine waterflow. In all of these models, we demonstrate convergence of MIDAS in finite iterations.MIDAS takes significantly longer to converge than SDDP due to its mixed-integer program (MIP) sub-problems. For hydro-bidding models with continuous state variables, its computation time depends on the value of δ. A larger δ reduces the computation time for convergence but also increases optimality error ε.In order to speed up MIDAS, we introduced two heuristics. The first heuristic is a step function selection heuristic, which is similar to the cut selection scheme in SDDP. This heuristic improves the solution time by up to 64%. The second heuristic iteratively solves the MIP sub-problems in MIDAS using smaller MIPs, rather than as one large MIP. This heuristic improves the solution time up to 60%. Applying both of the heuristics, we were able to use MIDAS to solve a hydro-bidding problem, consisting of a 4 reservoir, 4 station hydro scheme with integer state variables
Aubanel, Sophie. "Valeur pronostique à court terme de la cathepsine D : première étude prospective." Montpellier 1, 1990. http://www.theses.fr/1990MON11283.
Perrin, Laëtitia. "Le rôle des connaissances sémantiques dans la mémorisation de l'ordre en mémoire à court terme." Poitiers, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009POIT5020.
The contribution of semantic knowledge in short-term memory has been recently pointed out (e. G. , lexicality, concreteness and categorical effects). Many studies reported a positive effect of these factors on items recall, however the potential effect on order information remains a matter of controversy: they elicit a disadvantage or they have no effect. The goal of this research was to determine the impact of semantic knowledge on the short-term recall of order information. More precisely, the hypothesis was that a pre-organized structure for long-term memory information can improve the order recall. In this thesis, seven immediate serial recall task experiments are reported. Among them, three experiments were replicated. The four initial experiments examined the contribution of thematic associations. In the fifth experiment, an organization was assigned to categorical lists, and the two last experiments concerned scripts (i. E. , information attaching a predominant role to the order). Three main results were obtained. First, the presence of an organization, corresponding to the one of long-term memory, in semantic lists can improve the order recall. Second, item retrieval is based on the associative links between items, contrary to models of Saint-Aubin, Ouellette and Poirier (2005) and Haarmann and Usher (2001). Third, there is an early contribution (i. E. , during encoding) of semantic knowledge in the short-term memory, contrary to model of Saint-Aubin, Ouellette and Poirier (2005)
Demoulin, Catherine. "L’influence de l’acquisition de la lecture sur la mémoire à court terme verbale." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/238545.
Doctorat en Sciences psychologiques et de l'éducation
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Bellefeuille, Anne. "La mémoire visuelle à court terme et la perception visuelle dans le vieillissement." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/NQ52128.pdf.
Durand, Guylaine M. (Guylaine Marie). "Analyse des déficits cognitifs de la mémoire à court terme chez certains cérébrolésés." Thesis, McGill University, 1988. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=59609.
The first part of this thesis consists of a general evaluation of the cognitive impairments in three brain-damaged patients, who show a similar reduction in their auditory span, related to the components of STM. The word length effect, the phonological similarity effect and the primacy and recency effects are examined under normal conditions and under articulatory suppression.
The second part of this work is based on a mathematical model from which derived three variables: "a" and "b" representing the internal rehearsal mechanism, and "T" which is the temporal capacity limiting the operation of auditory short-term memory. A double dissociation was found between the articulatory mechanism and the temporal capacity, and a further one between two different processes within the articulatory mechanism. "a" reflecting the activation and recovery of an entire chunk, and "b" the articulation of syllables.
Bouchard, Valentine Martin. "Floraisons de cyanobactéries au lac Saint-Augustin : dynamique à court terme et stratification." Thesis, Université Laval, 2004. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2004/21970/21970.pdf.
Traditionally lake studies use data obtained biweekly or monthly assuming a certain homogeneity of parameters in time. However several studies have showed that at daily scale major changes can occur. One of the main goal of this thesis was to evaluate short-term dynamics in a small lake with a high sampling frequency (twice a week) in combination with continuous data. Saint-Augustin lake, a eutrophic lake of 0,5 km2 and 3 m mean depth, has been chosen. Results show that the weather conditions 24h to 48h prior to the sampling date had great impact on the water column thermal stability that in turn affects several limnological parameters. A second aspect of the thesis was to understand the causes underlying the cyanobacterial blooms that occurred in summer 2002. Cyanobacterial blooms are one of the most striking symptoms of eutrophied lakes. Results show that weather conditions alter very quickly (24h) the thermal stability of the water column. It appears that mixing conditions immediately followed by thermal stratification are likely to be responsible for the summer 2002 blooms, and the absence of this chain of events in summer 2003 is linked with the absence of cyanobacterial bloom that year. This study stresses the importance in choosing the correct sampling strategies in order to take into account the short term dynamics and thus getting a better picture of the lake. It also shows that with global warming and enhancement of period of thermal stratification that is likely to follow, cyanobacterial blooms should be more frequent. This is particularly true for eutrophic lakes already sensitive to blooms. To limit the impact of global warming on lakes, a better control of eutrophication is needed.
Inscrit au Tableau d'honneur de la Faculté des études supérieures
Bloin, Pierrick. "Réponse à court terme des insectes saproxyliques à la disponibilité du bois mort." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/70288.
This research project evaluates the short-term (< 1 month) response of saproxylic insects to the seasonal availability and tree species of recently cut logs. Using four harvested sites located in the balsam fir-paper birch forest of Forêt Montmorency (Quebec, Canada), we evaluated the taxonomic richness, visitation rates and colonization rates of saproxylic insects on logs cut on different dates during the summer season. Taxonomic richness and visitation rates were assessed using trunk-window traps, while colonization rates were obtained by debarking and dissecting exposed logs. Xylophagous insects were more likely to colonize balsam fir and black spruce logs than paper birch logs. Our results also showed a colonization of the logs by xylophagous insects less than a month after cutting, with higher colonization rates over a period ranging from mid-July to mid-September. These xylophagous insects were mainly Monochamus prob. scutellatus and Urocerus prob. albicornis, which are primary colonizers known to damage commercial logs. We recommend prompt harvesting of conifer logs cut during the period ranging from mid-July to mid-September to minimize damage to harvested logs.
Guivarch, Armel. "Valeur fertilisante à court terme du phosphore des boues de stations d'épuration urbaines." Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, INPL, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001INPL033N.
Curnier, Daniel. "Entrainement physique à court terme et insuffisance cardiaque : effets physiologiques et implications pharmacologiques." Toulouse 3, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000TOU30181.
Spinnler, Laurent. "Conception et utilisation d'un système de séquencement automatique d’opérations minières à court terme." ENSMP, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998ENMP0856.
Bey, Christophe. "Gestion des ressources cognitives et stratégies d'adaptation court terme chez les pilotes d'aéronefs." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016BORD0428/document.
The aviation industry has for many years pursued the objective of an optimum level of safetyin the air transport sector. With regard to military aviation, more precisely tactical, thispriority is coupled with an increasingly high and polymorphic search for performance. Whatcharacterize this type of aviation is the relationship between the performance pursued and theaccepted risks. It depends essentially on the context and the stakes of the missions to becarried out.The human factor approach is a major leverage for achieving this challenge. Thus, within theconstrained domain of aeronautics, the design and development of tools to assist crewcognition remains a prospect for the future, even if pilot training also becomes a majorchallenge for the coming years. In this context, the management of cognitive resources, and inparticular the specific management strategies put in place by the pilots, are central to thedecision-making process under constraints.In a research and engineering approach in cognition, we undertook a study involving pilotsand allowing the understanding of these mechanisms as well as the production ofrecommendations for the design of tools to help manage their cognitive resources. On thebasis of the analysis of feedback, and results of a preliminary experimental approach, we havebuilt a protocol to highlight the strategies implemented by the pilots in the context of anactivity during the descent and the final approach on the Clermont-Ferrand airport with acritical breakdown. The experimental results reconciled with our understanding hypotheseson the management of cognitive resources and management strategies, complete our analysisand recommendations for a tool to help manage the resources of the pilots
BADATCHEFF, FRANCOIS. "L'implant femoral sans ciment de harris galante : etude du comportement a court terme." Angers, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989ANGE1085.
Tekili, Chabane. "Contribution à la gestion de production des ateliers de mécanique : résolution de la planification à moyen terme et à court terme." Lyon, INSA, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997ISAL0083.
The overall goal of the production planning is to come up with most economical plan for minimizing slacks in terms of work force, equipment and work in process. A primary goal in planning is to provide an effective coverage to demands over an intermediate time horizon. The procedure computes time windows during which jobs have to be processed, a time margin is allowed for take into account the unexpected. In a first part, we suggest a lead time reduction, what implies that the production planning receives input from shop floor control so as to correct the time margin. Detailed scheduling of the various element of a production system is important in order to do some form of optimization at a higher level. Financial target is an essential point since inventory and work in process involve significant investments. Theorical scheduling models usually assume that there are n jobs to be scheduled and after scheduling these n jobs the problem is solved. In real life, every day (week or month) new jobs are added. The dynamic nature of this problem needs a rescheduling process. In the second part of this work, we propose a data-driven simulation procedure taking into account the financial targets. In addition, the different rules that have been taken to handle various aspects (conflicts, preemption. . . ) are summarized
Pasteels, Jacques. "L'expertise dans la prévision à court terme de variables économiques: contributions méthodologiques et empiriques." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/212284.
Roos, Jérémy. "Prévision à court terme des flux de voyageurs : une approche par les réseaux bayésiens." Thesis, Lyon, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LYSE1170/document.
In this thesis, we propose a Bayesian network model for short-term passenger flow forecasting. This model is intended to cater for various operational needs related to passenger information, passenger flow regulation or operation planning. As well as adapting to any spatial configuration, it is designed to combine heterogeneous data sources (ticket validation, on-board counts and transport service) and provides an intuitive representation of the causal spatio-temporal relationships between flows. Its ability to deal with missing data allows to make real-time predictions even in case of technical failures or absences of collection systems
Baudet, Philippe. "Ordonnancement à court terme d'un atelier discontinu de chimie : cas du fonctionnement job-shop." Toulouse, INPT, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997INPT010G.
PLOTON, RICHALET CAROLINE. "Les endoprotheses coronaires : resultats a court et moyen terme ; a propos de 37 cas." Lyon 1, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993LYO1M329.
Picon, Laurence. "Utilisation de l'imagerie meteosat pour l'etude des variations a court terme du climat africain." Paris 6, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991PA066669.