Journal articles: 'Demographic transition theory'

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Kirk, Dudley. "Demographic Transition Theory." Population Studies 50, no. 3 (November 1996): 361–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000149536.

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HEENAN, L. D. B. "Teaching the Theory of Demographic Transition." New Zealand Journal of Geography 68, no. 1 (May 15, 2008): 4–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0028-8292.1980.tb00656.x.

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عبدالعظیم, فدوی عماد الدین. "نظریة التحول الدیمـوجـــرافـی The Demographic Transition Theory." مجلة کلیة الآداب . جامعة بنی سویف 3, no. 51 (June 1, 2019): 183–236. http://dx.doi.org/10.21608/jfabsu.2019.89301.

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CASETTI, EMILIO. "A FORMALIZATION OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY." Papers in Regional Science 21, no. 1 (January 14, 2005): 159–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1968.tb01445.x.

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Sciubba, Jennifer Dabbs. "Coffins versus cradles: Russian population, foreign policy, and power transition theory." International Area Studies Review 17, no. 2 (June 2014): 205–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2233865914528823.

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In May 2006, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s dire demographics were the biggest challenge facing Russia. We know little about how states conduct foreign policy under demographic decline but some expect Russia to become more pacifist or to turn attention inward as its internal situation deteriorates. Power transition theory (PTT), however, which considers population as a key component of power, anticipates riskier international behavior under demographic changes. PTT predicts aggression under two conditions: when a dominant power sees its decline while secondary powers are rising; and when an inferior state sees its power increase while the dominant power declines. This article interprets Russia’s foreign policy actions from May 2006 through 2012 in light of PTT. I find that Russia was physically aggressive in its region when its population decline peaked, as PTT expects. Power transition theory also predicts Russia’s diplomatically aggressive foreign policy at the system level as Russian leaders’ perceptions of a favorable shift in the global balance of power gave them more confidence in Russia’s capabilities to challenge the status quo. This study furthers our understanding of foreign policy-making in times of demographic decline, extends power transition theory, and serves as a model for evaluating demographic trends and foreign policy for other great powers.

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WILSON, CHRIS, and PAULINE AIREY. "How can a homeostatic perspective enhance demographic transition theory?" Population Studies 53, no. 2 (January 1999): 117–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324720308076.

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Zaidi, Batool, and S. Philip Morgan. "The Second Demographic Transition Theory: A Review and Appraisal." Annual Review of Sociology 43, no. 1 (July 31, 2017): 473–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442.

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Tolts, Mark. "A Forgotten Forerunner of Demographic Transition Theory: A Commentary." Population and Development Review 45, no. 2 (June 2019): 421–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/padr.12256.

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Bobic, Mirjana, and Jelisaveta Vukelic. "Second demographic transition de-blocked?" Sociologija 53, no. 2 (2011): 149–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/soc1102149b.

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The text is re-examining the previously established dilemma related to whether Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohija) is the country of second demographic transition, i.e.: has the transition been de-blocked, under the assumption that this is a worldwide historical process of transformation of industrialized countries. The last thesis, around which there exists a lot of controversy in the contemporary population theory, is however not dealt with in detail; to the contrary, it is used as the general theoretical framework for the exploration of the most recent tendencies in the transformation of nuptiality and fertility regime in Serbia, as well as in the western and countries in post-socialist transformation. Special attention is given to the ideational changes, more precisely to the specific features of the value profile of the Serbian population, which is one of the most important determinants of the societal framework, that acts in the back of the afore mentioned aggregate demographic indicators. Finally, the hypothesis is posed (which should be further investigated by means of in-depth research and complementary approach) that the speeding-up of the second demographic transition and intensification of the individualisation not only of the partnership but of the parenthood as well, accompanied with the rise of living standard and social support to balancing work and family, would have produced important emancipating and, concomitantly, positive socioeconomic and demographic effects.

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Andreev, Evgeny M. "Reflections on demographic theories." Population and Economics 3, no. 2 (June 30, 2019): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/popecon.3.e37965.

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Abstract The article presents the author’s reflections on theories in general and demographic theories in particular. The epidemiological transition, i.e. periodization of changes in the structure of causes of death, proposed by A.R. Omran in 1971 and later raised to the rank of theory, is taken as an example. The author points out the insufficiency of Omran’s concept to explain the contemporary mortality trends and suggests possible directions of theorizing that would enable correlating the new stage of life expectancy growth with the notion of “epidemiological transition”.

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Handwerker, W. Penn. "Culture and Reproduction: An Anthropological Critique of Demographic Transition Theory." Population and Development Review 12, no. 4 (December 1986): 813. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1973443.

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Meir, Avinoam. "Demographic Transition Theory: A Neglected Aspect of the Nomadism-Sedentarism Continuum." Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 11, no. 2 (1986): 199. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/622006.

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Lee, Byung-Ho. "The Second Demographic Transition Theory, 1986-2020: Characteristics, Debates, and Implications." Korea Journal of Population Studies 43, no. 4 (December 31, 2020): 37–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.31693/kjps.2020.12.43.4.37.

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Staetsky, L. Daniel. "Stalling fertility decline of Israeli Muslims and the demographic transition theory." Population Studies 73, no. 3 (July 12, 2019): 317–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2019.1622765.

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Strulik, Holger. "Learning-by-doing, population pressure, and the theory of demographic transition." Journal of Population Economics 10, no. 3 (August 1, 1997): 285–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050044.

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Bezverbny, Vadim, and Lidia Bardakova. "Demographic Transition in The Cis Countries: Trends and Preliminary Results." DEMIS. Demographic Research 1, no. 3 (September 19, 2021): 11–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.19181/demis.2021.1.3.2.

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The presented work is devoted to the consideration of trends and effects of demographic transition in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (hereinafter-the CIS). The main purpose of the study is to consider the impact of the demographic transition on the population dynamics both in the post-Soviet countries and on a global scale. For a more systematic understanding of the depth of demographic changes at the present stage of society’s development, historical trends in population development and key provisions of the theory of demographic transition were considered. The trends of demographic developmentof the CIS countries in the period 1992–2020 were analyzed, including the dynamics of the population, the values of birth and death rates, as well as indicators characterizing the change in the age structure of the population. In order to obtain an information base for the study of trends in the demographic development of the CIS countries, a statistical method was used: data from international organizations of the United Nations and the CIS Statistical Committee were used to characterize the demographic trends of the CIS countries, including national statistics data, as well as data from the Internet project-Our World in Data to obtain historical data on the dynamics of the world population. The method of system analysis was used to assess the trends and characteristics of demographic processes in the CIS countries in the context of the theory of demographic transition. The analytical method was also used in the study. Based on the values of the total fertility and mortality rates, the natural growth rate, the total fertility rate, life expectancy, as well as the median age in the CIS countries, the authors make an assumption – which stage of the demographic transition is characteristic of this group of states. In conclusion, the authors present hypotheses about possible directions of demographic development of the post-Soviet countries in the context of the theory of demographic transition.

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Hopcroft, Rosemary L. "IS FERTILITY AFTER THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MALADAPTIVE?" Journal of Biosocial Science 51, no. 2 (March 5, 2018): 157–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021932018000032.

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SummaryFitness is always relative to the fitness of others in the group or breeding population. Even in very low-fertility societies, individual fitness as measured by the share of genes in subsequent generations may still be maximized. Further, sexual selection theory from evolutionary biology suggests that the relationship between status and fertility will differ for males and females. For this reason it is important to examine the relationship between status and fertility separately for males and females–something few demographic studies of fertility do. When male fertility is measured separately, high-status men (as measured by their wealth and personal income) have higher fertility than low-status men, even in very low-fertility societies, so individual males appear to be maximizing their fitness within the constraints posed by a modern society. Thus male fertility cannot be considered maladaptive. When female fertility is measured separately, in both very high- and very low-fertility societies, there is not much variance across women of different statuses in completed fertility. Only in societies currently changing rapidly (with falling fertility rates) is somewhat high variance across women of different statuses in completed fertility found. What is seen across all phases of the demographic transition appears to be a continuation of two somewhat different evolved human reproductive strategies–one male, one female–in changing social and material contexts. Whether contemporary female fertility is maladaptive remains an open question.

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White, Timothy J. "Irish Demography in a Comparative Context: European Transition Theory vs. A Post-Colonial Understanding." Irish Journal of Sociology 9, no. 1 (May 1999): 60–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/079160359900900103.

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While studies of Irish society have concentrated on the effects of colonialism on late industrialisation and Irish social life, less work has been done on the uniqueness of Irish demographic change and its connection to the country's colonial past. The present article argues that Ireland demographic history has more in common with post-colonial societies than with European states that went through the so-called demographic transition. Irish demographic patterns differ even from peripheral societies of Europe, primarily because its historic pattern of emigration allowed for a stable population despite relatively high birth rates and rapidly declining death rates. Ireland's recent economic success, however, has dramatically altered this historic pattern and its vital rates now correspond more closely to the pattern of European countries that experienced an early demographic transition.

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Maitra, Priyatosh. "The Demographic Effects of Technological Change and Capitalist Transformation - A Re-Interpretation of the Demographic Transition Theory." Artha Vijnana: Journal of The Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics 34, no. 2 (June 1, 1992): 125. http://dx.doi.org/10.21648/arthavij/1992/v34/i2/116054.

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Strulik, Holger, and Jacob Weisdorf. "HOW CHILD COSTS AND SURVIVAL SHAPED THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION." Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no. 1 (August 30, 2012): 114–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000302.

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This study provides a unified growth theory to correctly predict the initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortality and net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the course of their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate interplay between technological progress, mortality, fertility, and economic growth in the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. It not only provides an explanation for the demographic observation that fertility rates response with a delay to lower child mortality, but also identifies a number of turning points over the course of development, suggesting a high degree of complexity in the relationships between various economic and demographic variables.

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MacInnes, John, and Julio Pérez Díaz. "The Reproductive Revolution." Sociological Review 57, no. 2 (May 2009): 262–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-954x.2009.01829.x.

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We suggest that a third revolution alongside the better known economic and political ones has been vital to the rise of modernity: the reproductive revolution, comprising a historically unrepeatable shift in the efficiency of human reproduction which for the first time brought demographic security. As well as highlighting the contribution of demographic change to the rise of modernity and addressing the limitations of orthodox theories of the demographic transition, the concept of the reproductive revolution offers a better way to integrate sociology and demography. The former has tended to pay insufficient heed to sexual reproduction, individual mortality and the generational replacement of population, while the latter has undervalued its own distinctive theoretical contribution, portraying demographic change as the effect of causes lying elsewhere. We outline a theory of the reproductive revolution, review some relevant supporting empirical evidence and briefly discuss its implications both for demographic transition theory itself, and for a range of key social changes that we suggest it made possible: the decline of patriarchy and feminisation of the public sphere, the deregulation and privatisation of sexuality, family change, the rise of identity, ‘low’ fertility and ‘population ageing’.

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Vishnevsky, Anatoly. "UNSOLVED PROBLEMS IN THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION." Population and Economics 1, no. 1 (December 20, 2017): 3–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/popecon.1.e36030.

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The theory of demographic revolution / demographic transition is the main theoretical construction underlying modern concepts of demographic processes and their historical evolution. It enjoys wide and well-deserved recognition. At the same time, this theory can hardly be considered complete, as it is not free of contradictions and unsolved issues.The theory in its present form does not sufficiently recognize the demographic revolution as a unity of three revolutions — in mortality, fertility and migration — and pays them unequal attention.The theory underestimates the relative autonomy and interdependence of demographic processes, which leads to an exaggeration of the role of economic, political or cultural determinants of demographic shifts and to a downplaying of the role of these shifts as causes of economic, political and cultural changes. The theory of demographic revolution did not sufficiently integrate modern concepts of the behaviour of complex systems, their capacity for self-organization and homeostatic self-regulation.Only when this has been done will the theory be able to rid itself of its inherent “pessimistic eschatology”, and its explanatory potential be fully realized.

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23

Gudkova, Tatiana B. "Conceptualisation of the Second Demographic Transition: heuristic potential and limitations of theory." Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Filosofiya, sotsiologiya, politologiya, no. 43 (June 1, 2018): 125–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.17223/1998863x/43/12.

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Klupt, M. "IN SEARCH OF THEORY: PROSPECTS OF POPULATION RESEARCH IN COUNTRIES THAT HAVE COMPLETED THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION." Population and Economics 2, no. 1 (April 6, 2018): 1–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/popecon.2.e36037.

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The article continues the discussion on the ways of further development of the demographic theory initiated by A.Vishnevsky’s article in the first issue of the journal. In the author’s opinion, Vishnevsky’s “demographic eschatology” is incompatible with real political practices, as evidenced, in particular, by the biographies of A.Landry, the creator of the theory of the demographic revolution, and K. Davis, one of the founders of the theory of demographic transition. Landry was never guided by “demographic fatalism” in his political activities and Davis, praising administrative methods of reducing fertility in the Asian countries, opposed passive expectation of the fruits of modernization. The article shapes the approaches to the theoretical understanding of population issues that lie outside the framework of the theory of the demographic revolution/transition: theorizing aimed at finding mechanisms, not laws; adaptation of theories developed in other scientific disciplines to the description of these mechanisms; interpretation of post-transition demographic development as a movement between attractors, the speed and direction of which is determined by available economic resources and established institutions. According to the author, the interaction of mortality, fertility and migration, which occupies a central place in Vishnevsky’s concept, cannot explain many of the problems associated with the impact of demographic development on the modern world. To analyze such problems, it is necessary to design systems that include not only demographic, but also social, economic and political variables. The possibilities of such an approach are shown on the example of a study of political & demographic mechanisms that led to the unexpected for most experts victory of supporters of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union and the election of D.Trump as the president of the United States.

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Campbell, Gwyn. "The State and Pre-Colonial Demographic History: The Case of Nineteenth-Century Madagascar." Journal of African History 32, no. 3 (November 1991): 415–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021853700031534.

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This paper analyses the demography of nineteenth-century Madagascar in the light of the debate generated by the demographic transition theory. Both supporters and critics of the theory hold to an intrinsic opposition between human and ‘natural’ factors, such as climate, famine and disease, influencing demography. They also suppose a sharp chronological divide between the pre-colonial and colonial eras, arguing that whereas ‘natural’ demographic influences were of greater importance in the former period, human factors predominated thereafter. This paper argues that in the case of nineteenth-century Madagascar the human factor, in the form of the Merina state, was the predominant demographic influence. However, the impact of the state was felt through natural forces, and it varied over time. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries Merina state policies stimulated agricultural production, which helped to create a larger and healthier population and laid the foundation for Merina military and economic expansion within Madagascar. From the 1820, the cost of such expansionism led the state to increase its exploitation of forced labour at the expense of agricultural production and thus transformed it into a negative demographic force. Infertility and infant mortality, which were probably more significant influences on overall population levels than the adult mortality rate, increased from 1820 due to disease, malnutrition and stress, all of which stemmed from state forced labour policies. Available estimates indicate little if any population growth for Madagascar between 1820 and 1895. The demographic ‘crisis’ in Africa, ascribed by critics of the demographic transition theory to the colonial era, stemmed in Madagascar from the policies of the imperial Merina regime which in this sense formed a link to the French regime of the colonial era. In sum, this paper questions the underlying assumptions governing the debate about historical demography in Africa and suggests that the demographic impact of political forces be re-evaluated in terms of their changing interaction with ‘natural’ demographic influences.

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Cervellati, Matteo, and Uwe Sunde. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7, no. 3 (July 1, 2015): 189–225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20130170.

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This paper develops a quantifiable unified growth theory to investigate cross-country comparative development. The calibrated model can replicate the historical development dynamics in forerunner countries like Sweden and the patterns in cross-country panel data. The findings suggest a crucial role of the timing of the onset of the economic and demographic transition for explaining differences in development. Country-specific differences in extrinsic mortality are a candidate explanation for differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the resulting worldwide comparative development patterns, including the bimodal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries. (JEL I12, J11, J13, N33, N34, O41, O47)

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RUDNYTSKIY, O. P. "The Historical Evolution оf the Population оf Ukraine in the Light of the Theory of Demographic Transition." Demography and social economy, no. 3 (October 23, 2020): 3–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/dse2020.03.003.

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The main results of scientific investigations of long-time trends in population dynamics and population replacement in deep retrospect for Ukraine are presented. Perceptions of the transformational changes in the structure of population of Ukraine are expanding — both for the statistical era and for the population nonstatistical era of national history. Th e investigation is based on the author’s reconstructions of historical series of demographic dynamics in Ukraine, which for the fi rst time made it possible to reconstruct the real trajectory of population trends in regions of Ukraine for the long time period (since beginning of Common Era). Th e transformation of population replacement in our country in the con- text of the theories of demographic modernization and comparison with similar changes in other European countries is investigated.Novelty: For the fi rst time, it is clear that the overall trend in the numerical effi ciency of our country has been ambiguous for thousands of years, especially in the past. Th e periods of perturbation (wars, famines, epidemics, natural disas- ters) made the trend undulatory; over the second millennium, annual growth rates have fallen 150 times below zero. Th e results of the study allowed for the fi rst time to carry out correct periodization of the demographic and epidemiological transitions: it is scientifi cally estab- lished that the demographic transition has been going on since the mid-1890s, and epide- miological — since the mid-1920s. In the course it was established that demographic deve- lopment of Ukraine continues in both the well-known tendencies of demographic transition and under the infl uence of national diff erences. Th e Ukrainian way of modernization in the twentieth century was very dramatic — our country has been described as one of the coun- tries with the largest loss of population. The peculiarity of the dynamics of demographic modernization in Ukraine in the twentieth century lies primarily in the fact that it has a de- formed intermittent nature due to the multimillion-dollar hecatomb of human victims, and in recent times there has been demodernization of the processes of reproduction of the popu- lation of our country. Key words: population, vital event, reconstruction, population growth, historical series, demographic modernization, Ukraine.

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Moretti, Valerio, Luca Salvati, Massimo Cecchini, and Ilaria Zambon. "A Long-Term Analysis of Demographic Processes, Socioeconomic ‘Modernization’ and Forest Expansion in a European Country." Sustainability 11, no. 2 (January 14, 2019): 388. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11020388.

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This article investigates long-term forest decline and expansion vis-à-vis demographic processes in Italy, evidencing changes in the underlying socioeconomic context considering the ‘modernization theory’. An exploratory data analysis of 58 indicators assessing five basic research dimensions (territory, demography, education, trade and agriculture) and evolving rapidly over the study period (1862–2009), was run to ascertain similarity patterns among indicators and to identify time intervals characterized by homogeneous conditions in different analysis’ domains. Complementing indicators of forest expansion, changes in population structure and dynamics allow an empirical investigation of temporal coherence among demographic and forest transitions in Italy. The time window encompassing the two World Wars, approximately between 1931 and 1951, was identified as a turning point in the forest-socioeconomic system, being characterized by two groups of indicators that follow diverging (linear vs. nonlinear) time trends. A secondary turning point was identified at the beginning of the 1970s. Distinct temporal trends in the studied indicators were also identified using multivariate statistics (before the 1930s, between the 1930s and the 1950s, between the 1950s and the 1970s, from the 1970s onwards) and represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between socio-ecological contexts, highlighting latent transitions in both population and environment conditions. Our work definitely contributes to an empirical understanding of economic, political and social forces associated with forest transition and demographic transition in advanced economies.

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Spasenovic, Snezana, and Mirjana Devedzic. "Fertility of Belgrade’s population in the context of the theory of the second demographic transition." Zbornik Matice srpske za drustvene nauke, no. 138 (2012): 55–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/zmsdn1238055s.

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The paper identifies the features of fertility in the population of Belgrade that can be regarded as a manifestation of the second demographic transition. The analysis focuses on fertility decline, its age model, birth postponing, extramarital births, and exclusion from reproduction. It compares the municipalities constituting the inner city to those belonging to the suburbs, and checks whether the fertility changes correspond to the context of the second demographic transition.

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Zubarev, N. Yu. "Population Dynamics of Russia in the Context of the Theory of Demographic Transition." Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii 16, no. 2 (2019): 198–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2019.16-2.2.

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Wetherington, Ronald K. ": Culture and Reproduction: An Anthropological Critique of Demographic Transition Theory . W. Penn Handwerker." American Anthropologist 89, no. 3 (September 1987): 757–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/aa.1987.89.3.02a00580.

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Polesná, Helena, and Jiřina Kocourková. "Is the second demographic transition the relevant concept for European countries?" Geografie 121, no. 3 (2016): 390–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.37040/geografie2016121030390.

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The theory of second demographic transition is particularly unique in trying to capture both the transformation of reproductive behaviour and a change in the attitudes towards new forms of partnership life and a new reproductive pattern. This study has set as its target to find out to what degree second demographic transition can be used as an explanatory framework of the recent development of European reproductive behaviour and, in particular, what is its relevance when it comes to the post-Communist countries as a region with a specific development that has been an object of many discussions within this issue. Whether not only the transformation of reproductive behaviour, but also changes in the value orientation in post-Communist countries correspond with the assumptions and signs of the second demographic transition.

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Stojilkovic-Gnjatovic, Jelena. "Theoretical and conceptual framework for population ageing research." Stanovnistvo 57, no. 2 (2019): 13–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/stnv1902013s.

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The ageing of the population is a contemporary phenomenon, but its foundations were laid decades ago. Changing age structures and the consequent demographic ageing has only recently become the subject of theoretical (re)consideration, since the theory of demographic transition only values fertility and mortality trajectories. The emergence of ?new? demography takes into account the momentum created by the previous trends in population dynamics and explains the future rejuvenation or ageing of the population. The importance of inherited age structure can be illustrated using an approach that represents distorted cohort flows, showing that baby booms and baby busts can play a crucial role in the future ageing of the population. While in the past it was fertility that predominantly affected age structure, recent research has revealed that changes in life expectancy are becoming a more prominent factor in shaping expected population ageing trends. The general theory of population ageing would have to consider the possible compression of morbidity, dynamic equilibrium, or the expansion of morbidity, since the future course of (healthy) life expectancy is determining the scope of the old and fragile population. The status of theory in demography has long been problematic, since the ?grandiose? theory of demographic transition had to be reevaluated. Modern approaches apply more flexible theoretical frameworks to explain contemporary demographic changes and provide a conceptual background. As such, the important paradigm for the demography of ageing should be the prospective paradigm, which uses information about the longevity of the population and transposes it to population ageing research. The theory of population metabolism seems to adequately define why population ageing is important for cohorts and generation change, especially in cases where distorted cohort flows create prominent cohort oscillation. The need to create adequate policies for changing age composition morphology is highlighted in the domain of institutional adaptation, where the concept of population balance can provide the appropriate framework. Also, as life events tend to take place more often at certain points in the life cycle - for example during adulthood and entering old age - the idea of population densities should be further explored.

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Bystrov, E. "Testing the Second Demographic Transition Theory with Seemingly Unrelated Regression: Marital Postponement and Human Empowerment." European Sociological Review 30, no. 4 (May 26, 2014): 483–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcu054.

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Kulkova, I. A., O. O. Sekicki-Pavlenko, and E. B. Bedrina. "Exploring Modern Research on Socio-Economic Adaptation (The Case of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)." Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii 18, no. 3 (2021): 323–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2021.18-3.1.

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Recent years have seen dramatic socio-economic transformations that swept across the globe, especially the post-Soviet space. In this rapidly evolving world people need to adapt faster and more effectively. This study focuses on the development of knowledge in the field of social adaptation theory and aims to provide a quantitative and qualitative review of the research conducted on socio-demographic adaptation in the last thirty years. A particular focus is made on the contribution made by the researchers of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. To this end, we chose the two main areas that the Institute’s research teams worked on — the studies of socio-labour adaptation and the studies of demographic adaptation (including migration). Our quantitative overview relied on the method of bibliometric analysis. We chose the publications indexed in such international databases as Scopus and Web of Science and on the Russian platform eLibrary. ru. Our analysis has demonstrated a growth in the absolute and relative number of studies on the social and demographic aspects of adaptation. The most influential academic journals and communities were identified. We also systematized the most significant publications to identify major research topics and trends. Our qualitative analysis has brought to light the contribution made by researchers of the Institute to the development of the anthropocentric and socio-centric approaches within the social adaptation theory. Among other things, the Institute’s specialists have shown the synthesis of the two key demographic paradigms — the theory of demographic transition and the theory of the family crisis. They also developed the theory of reproductive behaviour on the basis of the theories of the second demographic transition, consumer behaviour, rational choice, and the value of children. It was also proven that raising of the retirement age has an impact on fertility.

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Murkowski, Radosław. "SCENARIUSZE ROZWOJU DEMOGRAFICZNEGO AFRYKI." Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych 20, no. 4 (January 7, 2020): 252–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/mibe.2019.20.4.24.

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In the article, on the basis of the demographic transition theory, the variants of demographic development of the African continent in the years 2015 - 2100 were evaluated on the basis of various scenarios developed by UN experts. In addition, the assessment of the diversity of demographic development of individual African countries was carried out using the Ward agglomeration method according to the basic demographic characteristics. It was pointed out that the majority of African countries will be characterized by a relatively homogeneous level of demographic development, which in the coming years will be able to be defined as a continuation of the demographic explosion phase.

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Gori, Luca, Enrico Lupi, Piero Manfredi, and Mauro Sodini. "A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic." Journal of Demographic Economics 86, no. 2 (January 15, 2020): 125–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.21.

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AbstractAccording to the conventional theory of the demographic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger of fertility decline and sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/AIDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, dramatically reversing the long-term positive trend in life expectancies in high HIV-prevalence countries. Moreover, SSA is experiencing a delayed and slower fertility transition compared to other world regions and there is growing empirical evidence highlighting the potential for a paralysis, or even a reversal, of the fertility transition in countries with severe HIV epidemics. This work builds on a unified growth theory-like general equilibrium model combined with HIV spread, where mortality endogenously feeds back into fertility and education decisions. The model supports the evidence of an HIV-triggered fertility reversal in SSA via the fall in education and human capital investments due to increased adult mortality, which eventually breaks the switch from quantity to quality of children. Fertility reversal is predicted to be more likely to occur in countries experiencing severe HIV epidemics, and its effects may persist even under successful scenarios of HIV control. These results suggest that the alarming possibility of a paralysis in the fertility transition, which so far has aroused little concern among international organizations, e.g., in the last round of UN population projections, should be seriously considered with a view to prioritizing policy interventions.

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Sulaberidze, Avtandil. "MIGRATION OF GEORGIAN POPULATION AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF THE THIRD DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION." Globalization and Business 4, no. 8 (December 27, 2019): 96–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.35945/gb.2019.08.011.

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An important role of migration in the world as well as in local predictable changes, with regard to certain countries’ population, indicates to the challenge of migratory processes. In order to explain the causes of migration, with the aim of its optimization and regulation, there were formulated various theories and concepts regarding the migration. From among these concepts, we have employed the neoclassical theory of migration and the theory of migratory transition, as well as the concept of the third demographic transition. In the process of the formation of Georgian population, migration played, and still does, a significant part in influencing the growth rate of the Georgian population’s size. If natural increase was the main component in terms of the size formation of the Georgian population during 1960-1991, from 1992 up until today, external migration assumed the same role. Since 1992, the low natural increase can no longer compensate for the negative net migration as a consequence of which the Georgian population has decreased by 3723.5 thousand persons by 2019. On the one hand, since 1992, Georgia has belonged to the list of the countries that are demographically developed and on the verge of depopulation. On the other hand, because of the high intensity of emigration, it is among the donor countries which supply the developed countries with emigrants. Socio-economic analysis of the migratory processes that are associated with Georgian population has showed us that Georgia’s economy is characterized by a high share of labor in comparison to capital and by low market income, whereas the highly-developed countries of Europe are distinguished by the opposite tendency – the low share of labor compared to the capital and higher market income. This is directly linked to the neoclassical theory of migration, and the mentioned distinction forces Georgian population to emigrate toward the highly-developed foreign countries. Furthermore, decrease of work-force together with its human capital did not cause a significant growth of their income. In spite of the fact that the salary of the Georgian emigrants (especially illegal ones) is small in the highly- developed countries, in comparison to Georgia, European countries offer substantially higher salaries even on the low-qualification jobs than the actual salaries of a worker employed on the high-qualification jobs in Georgia will ever be. This difference is the main reason as to why the emigrants refrain from returning to their homeland. A sociological survey has confirmed that emigration from Georgia, besides economic factors, is associated with such social-demographic factors of migration as are: receiving education, exile, and the desire to live in better conditions, etc. These factors substantially determine the positive of migration in the receiving highly-developed countries and negative – in Georgia. Therefore, the more distinction there is between the positive and negative factors of migration, the higher the expected emigration to the other countries and the possibility of staying there. According to the current statistical information with regard to the materials of the 2014 population census, the article demonstrates the dynamics and tendency of the migration of the Georgian population since the country gained its independence up until today. It analyzes migrants’ sex-age structure. It has been revealed that the emigration is especially intensive amid the population that is in their reproductive age and is able- bodied. Moreover, it is related to social-economic factors. The sociological research conducted on students showed us that 42% of them intend to emigrate abroad after they graduate during 2018-2020. Additionally, working is the primary motive for boys as studying is for girls. After receiving education abroad, the half of them intend to return to homeland provided they can find a job with a decent salary in Georgia. Net migration has decreased at the expense of the immigration of foreign citizens and not at the cost of illegal Georgian citizens. In the aftermath of a short-term visa- liberalization within the territory of the EU, emigration from Georgia has increased, which is confirmed by the growth of the negative net migration from 2212 to 10763 inhabitants in 2017-2018. This, in turn, will reduce the population reproduction potential in Georgia and through “brain drain” the country will lose its human capital that possesses higher education. Therefore, it is still early to draw conclusions with regard to improving the perspectives of emigration and immigration of Georgian population.

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Bras, Hilde. "Heterogeneity in ‘High Fertility’ Societies. Insights From Compositional Demography." Historical Life Course Studies 10 (March 31, 2021): 106–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.51964/hlcs9577.

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Demographic transition theory has been conducive to a rather dichotomous view of global fertility: traditional versus modern, high versus low fertility. The knowledge that high fertility could be achieved by subpopulations with different characteristics and reproductive behaviors somehow vanished from (historical) demographers' attention. This study unpacks heterogeneity in a 'high fertility' society, i.e. 19th-century Zeeland, the Netherlands. Sequence and cluster analysis were employed to distinguish groups with disparate reproductive trajectories with data from Genlias/LINKS including 15,014 full birth histories and 87,204 observed live births over the period 1811–1911. Multilevel binomial logistic regression models of membership of the two discerned high fertility subgroups were then estimated. The 'Traditional 1' subpopulation, with 10.5 children per woman on average, was composed of skilled, unskilled, and farm workers living in rural areas. Couples married early and were characterized by large spousal age gaps. The 'Traditional 2' subpopulation had on average 7.2 children per woman, more often lived in towns, married significantly later, and had more equal gender relations. Compositional demography, revealing subpopulations with divergent cultures of marital self-restraint and reproductive management, not only nuances previous (historical) demographic findings, but may well offer more tools to develop family planning and reproductive health policies than the demographic transition model does.

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REHER, DAVID. "Back to the basics: mortality and fertility interactions during the demographic transition." Continuity and Change 14, no. 1 (May 1999): 9–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0268416099003240.

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Mortality change has traditionally been considered a necessary prerequisite to any long-term reduction in fertility. In Frank Notestein's original statement of the demographic transition theory, societies went from high to low levels of fertility and mortality by means of a path in which mortality declined first and was followed at a shorter or longer lag by fertility. Subsequently Abdel Omran outlined a number of scenarios of demographic transition, all of which reflected simultaneous or prior declines of mortality as a major factor stimulating fertility reduction. While Omran's view of the epidemiological transition goes on to emphasize many other aspects of mortality decline, his view of it as an agent for fertility decline is similar to Notestein's.This understanding of the mortality–fertility synergy is based on two very general conceptions of historical reality which both Omran and Notestein share with many people working in the field of historical demography. For one, there has never been a society known to historians in which fertility was high and mortality low, or mortality high and fertility low, except in moments of epidemic or economic or political stress, for relatively brief periods of time, or among very specific historic sub-populations. Normally mortality and fertility have ended up adjusting to each other more or less efficiently so as to ensure moderate rates of population growth. Moreover, high levels of fertility and mortality invariably were replaced by moderate ones during the demographic transition. Secondly, one of the reasons that the demographic transition holds such an allure for most historians is that it was a period of history in which societal traditions appear to have succumbed to the weight of rational choices made by families in order to ensure their best welfare in the face of changing circumstances. The initial instigator of the change, one would reasonably suspect, had to have been a decline in mortality with increasing numbers of children surviving beyond infancy. Faced with this reality, families made the decision to give individual choice priority over social norms and ended up curtailing their fertility. The entire context of social, economic and cultural modernization contributed to people's willingness to adopt new strategies when faced with new realities, but intuitively the point of departure would seem to have been incipient mortality transformation.

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Satiiar, Zeba A. "Child Survival and Changing Fertility Patterns in Pakistan." Pakistan Development Review 31, no. 4II (December 1, 1992): 699–713. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v31i4iipp.699-713.

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Most earlier research, based on the theory of the demographic transition, focused on the association between mortality decline as a precedent to fertility decline. Whereas most of Europe experienced declines in mortality prior to fertility declines, even there the evidence is not conclusive that declines in mortality always preceded changes in fertility [Knodel and Van de Walle (1979)]. In most Asian countries which have experienced demographic transitions in the recent past mortality and fertility have declined in close succession. The position being taken here is that in certain settings substantial fertility declines, or at least an alteration in fertility patterns, may be a prerequisite to substantial declines in child mortality. The association between fertility patterns and child survival is to be investigated with a view to analysing the likely effects of changes in fertility patterns on chances of child survival.

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Drezgic, Rada. "From family planning to population policy: A paradigm shift in Serbian demography at the end of the 20th century." Filozofija i drustvo 19, no. 3 (2008): 181–215. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fid0803181d.

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This paper traces changes in the dominant paradigm of Serbian demography that took palace in the context of major socio-political changes during the late twentieth century. The changes are traced both in the realm of research and social policy. It is argued that demographic transition theory remained the main explanatory model but that its modified version which gives precedence to ideational vs. structural variables gained the dominant status. In the realm of social policy the ideology of family planning was replaced by population policy ideology. It is further argued that alarming discourses and sharp rhetoric about population problems did not result in formulation of a system of specific measures of population policy. Thus, the author claims, demographic discourses that at the time saturated public spaces were constitutive for - gender and national -identity politics and not inconsequential for social policy.

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Brooks, Deborah Jordan, Stephen G. Brooks, Brian D. Greenhill, and Mark L. Haas. "The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful." International Security 43, no. 3 (February 2019): 53–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00335.

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The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demographically, most of the world's states with young populations are aging, and many are doing so quickly. This first-of-its kind systematic theoretical and empirical examination of how these demographic transitions influence the likelihood of interstate conflict shows that countries with a large number of young people as a proportion of the total population are the most prone to international conflict, whereas states with the oldest populations are the most peaceful. Although societal aging is likely to serve as a force for enhanced stability in most, and perhaps all, regions of the world over the long term, the road to a “demographic peace” is likely to be bumpy in many parts of the world in the short to medium term.

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Billari, Francesco C., Piero Manfredi, and Alessandro Valentini. "Macro‐demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: Multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy." Mathematical Population Studies 9, no. 1 (December 2000): 33–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08898480009525494.

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Bean, Lee L., Geraldine P. Mineau, and Douglas L. Anderton. "High-Risk Childbearing: Fertility and Infant Mortality on the American Frontier." Social Science History 16, no. 3 (1992): 337–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0145553200016539.

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Historical analyses of demographic phenomena from the past few decades have provided new insights requiring the reassessment of a number of traditional paradigms, such as the venerable demographic transition theory. Fertility studies have dominated this research, but there is a growing interest in the interrelationships of several demographic variables, such as family formation and infant mortality (Knodel and Hermalin 1984; Nault et al. 1990; Potter 1988a; Working Group on the Health Consequences of Contraceptive Use and Controlled Fertility 1989a, 1989b). This article falls into the latter category; in it we investigate the relationship between childbearing (fertility) and infant mortality in the Utah frontier population during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

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Lutz, Wolfgang, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Endale Kebede, Alexia Prskawetz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Erich Striessnig. "Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 26 (June 10, 2019): 12798–803. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820362116.

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The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980–2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.

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Iyer, Samantha. "Colonial Population and the Idea of Development." Comparative Studies in Society and History 55, no. 1 (January 2013): 65–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0010417512000588.

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AbstractThis article traces the shift in demographic thought from the Malthusian framework that predominated in English-language political economic writings of the nineteenth century to demographic transition theory, which prevailed by the mid-twentieth century. An analysis of demographic theory offers particular insights onto the intellectual history of development because the question of population served as the point of departure for various development theories. While the scholarly literature on U.S. development ideas and projects has grown increasingly rich and sophisticated in recent decades, it remains wedded to the notion that there was a stark rupture between American development theory and the conditions in and relationships to the underdeveloped world that it sought to describe. This belief threatens to trivialize the significance of violent economic, environmental, and political circumstances that made development a useful lens of interpretation. Focusing especially on ideas about India, this article examines how, in an era of economic crises, intellectual and political exchange between British colonial, Indian nationalist, and American thinkers concerning the problems of disease, famine, and immigration enabled a transformation in demographic thinking. The concept of development did not simply diffuse from the West to the Rest. Global conflict and dialogue—both between and within empires—enabled its emergence such that, by the early 1950s, peoples in various parts of the world had already taken the ideal of development for granted.

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Dyson, Tim. "A partial theory of world development: the neglected role of the demographic transition in the shaping of modern society." International Journal of Population Geography 7, no. 2 (2001): 67–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijpg.215.

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Brons, M. D. (Anne), Aart C. Liefbroer, and Harry B. G. Ganzeboom. "Parental Socio-Economic Status and First Union Formation: Can European Variation Be Explained by the Second Demographic Transition Theory?" European Sociological Review 33, no. 6 (November 20, 2017): 809–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcx078.

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Strulik, Holger. "DESIRE AND DEVELOPMENT." Macroeconomic Dynamics 23, no. 07 (January 10, 2018): 2717–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000943.

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This paper explores the impact of gender differences in the desire for sex and the distribution of power in the household on the onset of the demographic transition and the take-off to growth. Depending on the price and efficacy of modern contraceptives, the gender wage gap, and female bargaining power, the economy assumes one of two possible equilibria. At the traditional equilibrium, contraceptives are not used, fertility is high and education and growth are low. At the modern equilibrium, contraceptives are used, fertility is low and further declining with increasing income, and education and growth are high. The theory motivates a “wanted fertility reversal”: At the traditional equilibrium, men prefer more children than women, whereas at the modern equilibrium, men prefer fewer children than women. Female empowerment causes households to provide more education for their children and leads to an earlier uptake of modern contraceptives and an earlier onset of the demographic transition and the take-off to modern growth.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Demographic transition theory'

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