Academic literature on the topic 'Demographic transition theory'
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Journal articles on the topic "Demographic transition theory"
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Kirk, Dudley. "Demographic Transition Theory." Population Studies 50, no. 3 (November 1996): 361–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000149536.
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HEENAN, L. D. B. "Teaching the Theory of Demographic Transition." New Zealand Journal of Geography 68, no. 1 (May 15, 2008): 4–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0028-8292.1980.tb00656.x.
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عبدالعظیم, فدوی عماد الدین. "نظریة التحول الدیمـوجـــرافـی The Demographic Transition Theory." مجلة کلیة الآداب . جامعة بنی سویف 3, no. 51 (June 1, 2019): 183–236. http://dx.doi.org/10.21608/jfabsu.2019.89301.
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CASETTI, EMILIO. "A FORMALIZATION OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY." Papers in Regional Science 21, no. 1 (January 14, 2005): 159–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1968.tb01445.x.
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Sciubba, Jennifer Dabbs. "Coffins versus cradles: Russian population, foreign policy, and power transition theory." International Area Studies Review 17, no. 2 (June 2014): 205–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2233865914528823.
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In May 2006, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s dire demographics were the biggest challenge facing Russia. We know little about how states conduct foreign policy under demographic decline but some expect Russia to become more pacifist or to turn attention inward as its internal situation deteriorates. Power transition theory (PTT), however, which considers population as a key component of power, anticipates riskier international behavior under demographic changes. PTT predicts aggression under two conditions: when a dominant power sees its decline while secondary powers are rising; and when an inferior state sees its power increase while the dominant power declines. This article interprets Russia’s foreign policy actions from May 2006 through 2012 in light of PTT. I find that Russia was physically aggressive in its region when its population decline peaked, as PTT expects. Power transition theory also predicts Russia’s diplomatically aggressive foreign policy at the system level as Russian leaders’ perceptions of a favorable shift in the global balance of power gave them more confidence in Russia’s capabilities to challenge the status quo. This study furthers our understanding of foreign policy-making in times of demographic decline, extends power transition theory, and serves as a model for evaluating demographic trends and foreign policy for other great powers.
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WILSON, CHRIS, and PAULINE AIREY. "How can a homeostatic perspective enhance demographic transition theory?" Population Studies 53, no. 2 (January 1999): 117–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324720308076.
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Zaidi, Batool, and S. Philip Morgan. "The Second Demographic Transition Theory: A Review and Appraisal." Annual Review of Sociology 43, no. 1 (July 31, 2017): 473–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442.
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Tolts, Mark. "A Forgotten Forerunner of Demographic Transition Theory: A Commentary." Population and Development Review 45, no. 2 (June 2019): 421–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/padr.12256.
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Bobic, Mirjana, and Jelisaveta Vukelic. "Second demographic transition de-blocked?" Sociologija 53, no. 2 (2011): 149–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/soc1102149b.
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The text is re-examining the previously established dilemma related to whether Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohija) is the country of second demographic transition, i.e.: has the transition been de-blocked, under the assumption that this is a worldwide historical process of transformation of industrialized countries. The last thesis, around which there exists a lot of controversy in the contemporary population theory, is however not dealt with in detail; to the contrary, it is used as the general theoretical framework for the exploration of the most recent tendencies in the transformation of nuptiality and fertility regime in Serbia, as well as in the western and countries in post-socialist transformation. Special attention is given to the ideational changes, more precisely to the specific features of the value profile of the Serbian population, which is one of the most important determinants of the societal framework, that acts in the back of the afore mentioned aggregate demographic indicators. Finally, the hypothesis is posed (which should be further investigated by means of in-depth research and complementary approach) that the speeding-up of the second demographic transition and intensification of the individualisation not only of the partnership but of the parenthood as well, accompanied with the rise of living standard and social support to balancing work and family, would have produced important emancipating and, concomitantly, positive socioeconomic and demographic effects.
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Andreev, Evgeny M. "Reflections on demographic theories." Population and Economics 3, no. 2 (June 30, 2019): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/popecon.3.e37965.
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Abstract The article presents the author’s reflections on theories in general and demographic theories in particular. The epidemiological transition, i.e. periodization of changes in the structure of causes of death, proposed by A.R. Omran in 1971 and later raised to the rank of theory, is taken as an example. The author points out the insufficiency of Omran’s concept to explain the contemporary mortality trends and suggests possible directions of theorizing that would enable correlating the new stage of life expectancy growth with the notion of “epidemiological transition”.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Demographic transition theory"
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Camarano, Ana Amelia. "Fertility transition in Brazil in the twentieth century : a comparative study of three areas." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1996. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1432/.
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The thesis discusses the main issues of demographic transition theory and uses this in a comparative analysis of fertility movements in three socio-economically different Brazilian regions over the twentieth century. The regions are the Northeast and the states of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. The analysis points to a clear movement towards smaller family sizes in all regions. The movement started early in the twentieth century (or before) among white women living in Rio de Janeiro. These women were probably the better off. This behaviour was followed by white Sao Paulo women after about two decades and by the 1980s had reached most women independently of socio-economic status. The diffusion of the value of a small family and the legitimatization of contraception as well as some adjustment to mortality decline seem to have played an important role in this process. Although fertility declined in all regions, a single pattern of fertility change, as delineated by the classical view of demographic transition theory, was not found. Fertility rates were always in movement, declining and increasing. The strategy used for the decline was, mostly, an earlier stopping of reproduction. However, later onset and longer spacing also became important, especially at a more advanced stage of the fertility decline. A clear and single association between socio-economic variables and family size was not observed. Each variable played a somewhat different role in the reproductive behaviour of the three societies. Mass communication contributed to the diffusion of the small family size value. The process of diffusion resulted in a separation of socioeconomic and intermediate variables. This points to the existence of a component of social pressure in the fertility decline. Indications of a continuation of fertility decline in the near future are present. However, hints of a convergence in fertility rates and their stabilization at replacement level were not found. Fertility rates may reach levels below replacement in Rio and Sao Paulo. Regional fertility differences are likely to continue. This suggests the presence of regional and individual preferences in the reproduction process or conscious choice along with some degree of institutional pressure.
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Bystrov, Evgenia [Verfasser], Christian [Akademischer Betreuer] Welzel, Johannes [Akademischer Betreuer] Huinink, and Ron [Akademischer Betreuer] Lesthaeghe. "The Second Demographic Transition theory in practice: The case of Israel / Evgenia Bystrov. Gutachter: Johannes Huinink ; Ron Lesthaeghe. Betreuer: Christian Welzel." Bremen : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1072077221/34.
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Fazecas, Michaela. "THE UNITED NATIONS FUND FOR POPULATION ACTIVITIES: CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE IN DEVELOPING NATIONS." Master's thesis, University of Central Florida, 2004. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/4500.
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This thesis builds on previous United Nations' research investigating factors affecting the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in six (6) states: Burkina Faso, Mexico, Morocco, Nepal, the Philippines, and Uganda. The present research, however, provides a broader assessment of the TFR and the potential causes of its decline by examining countries across nine (9) regions of the world – sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the Caribbean, the Pacific Islands, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, and the former Soviet Socialist Republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States. The present analyses are also conducted over time, specifically from 1960 through 2002. Five (5) primary hypotheses regarding factors affecting the Total Fertility Rate are examined using feasible generalized least squares regression analysis. First, foreign debt is hypothesized to have a positive relationship to TFR. That is, holding all else constant, as foreign debt increases, TFR is expected to increase as well. Foreign debt is operationalized first, as total external debt; second, as long-term debt, and third, as total debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services. Second, foreign aid, the level of socioeconomic development, and the extent of females' education are all hypothesized to have negative relationships to TFR. That is, all else constant, as foreign aid increases, TFR is expected to decrease. All else constant, as the level of socioeconomic development increases, TFR is also expected to decrease. All else constant, as the extent of females' education increases, TFR is also expected to decrease. Foreign aid is operationalized as first, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loans and International Development Agency (IDA) credits; and second, as official development assistance and official aid. The level of socioeconomic development is operationalized as the Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in terms of purchasing power parity. The extent of females' education is operationalized as first, the adult female literacy rate (ages 15 and above), and second, as the ratio of young literate females to males (ages 15 - 24). Finally, whereas previous scholars have hypothesized that industrialization reduces TFR (the Western European demographic transition hypothesis), the present research proposes that this relationship may not hold in developing countries. This possibility is investigated by analyzing the relationships between TFR and first, the value added of agriculture (as a percentage of GDP); second, the value added of industry (also as a percentage of GDP); third, the value added of manufacturing as a percentage of GDP; and fourth, the value added of services as a percentage of GDP. The findings presented here suggest first, that the foreign debt and foreign aid have differing effects on TFR in different regions of the world. Second, the effects of socioeconomic development and females' education are more consistent (than foreign debt and foreign aid) across the different regions - but intriguing variations still exist. Finally, it appears that, with very few exceptions, the Western European-based demographic transition model does not hold for non-Western and developing areas. Therefore, new, region-specific models of TFR need to be developed - and public policy needs to be based on these more accurate, more context-appropriate models.M.S.
Department of Political Science
Arts and Sciences
Political Science
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Lange, Jérôme. "Population growth, the settlement process and economic progress : Adam Smith's theory of demo-economic development." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E039/document.
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La population - en son sens originel de processus de peuplement - est un sujet étonnamment absent de l'énorme volume d’études sur Adam Smith. Ce thème était au centre de la philosophie morale et de l'économie politique du 18e siècle, les deux domaines auxquels les contributions de Smith sont les plus connues. Son importance dans l’œuvre de Smith a été obscurcie au 20e siècle par une focalisation étroite sur les questions économiques dans la littérature secondaire. Pour une analyse intégrale de son œuvre, il est essentiel que la place centrale du peuplement soit révélée. Trois thèmes aujourd'hui considérés comme essentiels au projet de Smith sont ainsi intimement liés à la population : le lien entre division du travail et étendue du marché ; la théorie des quatre stades du progrès de la société ; et le lien entre développement rural et urbain, lui-même au centre du plaidoyer de Smith pour la liberté du commerce. Le marché est un concept aujourd'hui assimilé au fonctionnement du système économique capitaliste ; pour Smith, il décrivait la faculté de commercer, aux vecteurs essentiellement démographiques et géographiques. Le progrès de la société est à la fois cause et effet de la croissance de la population. En son sein se trouve l'interrelation symbiotique entre le développement rural et urbain que Smith appelait le «progrès naturel de l'opulence». Adopter l’optique smithienne plutôt que néo-malthusienne dans l'examen des dynamiques de population et de développement - y compris l'analyse de la transition démographique - conduit alors à une reconsidération fondamentale des interactions causales entre mortalité, fécondité, richesse et variables institutionnellesPopulation - in its original sense of the process of peopling - is a topic surprisingly absent from the huge volume of scholarship on Adam Smith. This topic was central to 18th century moral philosophy and political economy, the two fields Smith most famously contributed to. Its importance in Smith’s work was obscured in the 20th century by a narrow focus on economic matters in the secondary literature. For an undivided analysis of Smith’s oeuvre it is crucial that the central position of the peopling process be brought to light. Three topics that are today recognised as essential to Smith’s project are thus intimately connected to population: the relation between the division of labour and the extent of the market; the stadial theory of progress; and the link between the development of town and country, itself central to Smith’s advocacy of the freedom of trade. The market is a concept read today through an institutional lens linking it to the functioning of the capitalist economic system; Smith conceived of it as facility for trade, with essentially demographic and geographic vectors. The progress of society is both cause and effect of the growth of population. At its core is the symbiotic interrelationship between rural and urban development that Smith called the “natural progress of opulence”. In turn, looking at dynamics of population and development - including the analysis of the demographic transition - through a Smithian rather than a neo-Malthusian lens leads to a fundamental reconsideration of causal interactions between mortality, fertility, wealth and institutional variables
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Oumarou, Mahamane Laouali. "Technologie de l’information et de la communication et développement économique : les enjeux et les opportunités au Niger." Thesis, Paris 10, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA100231.
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Le Niger est un pays enclavé d’Afrique de l’Ouest. Son positionnement à la périphérie des pôles essentiels de la sous région explique en partie son retard de développement. A cela, s’ajoute, un nouveau retard, qualifié de fracture numérique. Son parc d’infrastructures vétuste ne lui permet pas de profiter des flux mondiaux d’information pour bénéficier des avantages de la compétitivité de la nouvelle société de l’information. Sous l’impulsion de récents débats internationaux sur les nouvelles technologies, il apparaît que le développement économique du Niger nécessiterait une appropriation des TIC par la population. Dès lors, ces nouvelles technologies de l’information sont à l’épicentre des questions de développement qui se posent au Niger. Cette recherche s’est donnée le but d’analyser le système actuel des TIC au Niger et sa capacité à enclencher le développement économique dans un contexte de mondialisation des économies fondé sur l’information et la connaissance grâce à l’usage des TIC. Elle examine en premier lieu, le potentiel des ressources techniques, humaines et des plans et politiques gouvernementaux en matière des TIC, à l’échelle territoriale. A la suite de cette analyse et des questionnements qu’elle pose, des théories économiques ont émergé : l’économie de l’information et ses dérivées. En second lieu, cette étude explore, décrit, explique, interprète et illustre ces théories dans un contexte d’accès aux TIC. Les exemples illustratifs montrent que les TIC corrigent certaines de ces prédictions. Elles améliorent le capital humain, affinent les anticipations des agents et réduisent le risque des décisions économiques. C’est en cela que les TIC peuvent être considérées comme un facteur de développement économique au Niger. Dans cette révolution des NTIC, les économies n’ont nécessairement pas besoin de passer par l’étape de l’industrialisation comme à l’ancienne. L’exemple de la Chine et des dragons asiatiques le témoigneNiger is a landlocked country in West Africa. Its position on the outskirts of essential poles in the under-region partly explains its delayed development. To this is added, a further delay, called digital divide. Its fleet of obsolete infrastructure does not allow it to take full advantage of global flows of information to take advantage of the competitiveness of the new information society. Spurred on by recent international discussions on new technologies, it appears that the economic development of Niger would require an appropriation of ICTs by the population. Therefore, these new information technologies are at the epicenter of development issues facing the Niger. This research was given the objective to analyze the current system of ICT in Niger and its ability to set off economic development in a context of globalization of economies based on information, knowledge and expertise, by using ICTs. Following this analysis and the questions it poses, some economic theories have emerged, the information economy and its derivatives. In the second time, this study explores, describes, explains, interprets and illustrates these theories in the context of ICTs access. Illustrative examples show that ICT correct some of these predictions. ICT improves human capital, refine agents' anticipations and reduce the risk of economic decisions. That’s why, ICTs can be considered as an economic development factor in Niger. In this revolution of new technologies, the economies have not necessarily need to go through the stage of industrialization as the old theories. The example of China and the Asian dragons shows that
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Tasci, Haci Mehmet. "Essays On Unemployment In Turkey." Phd thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12606092/index.pdf.
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ABSTRACT
ESSAYS ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY
TaSçi, H. Mehmet Ph.D., Department of Economics Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Aysit Tansel March 2005, 223 pages In this study we examine the Turkish labor market by using the Household Labor Force Survey data for the years 2000 and 2001. There are three main essays in this study. In the first essay, the determinants of transitions between the labor market states of employment, unemployment, and out-of-labor force are examined by using multinomial-logit models. We observe from the transitions out of employment that workers with low education and those working in the non-public sector have a higher risk of losing their job than those with higher education and those working in the public sector. In the second essay, grouped duration approach is used to find the determinants of unemployment duration and test whether there is an evidence of duration dependence in unemployment. In the third essay, we distinguish the first-time job-seekers from the other job-seekers, and analyze the determinants of unemployment duration for these groups, separately. The last two parts of this study shows the main characteristics of the short-term and long-term unemployed people in Turkey. We find that individual and demographic characteristics as well as local labor market conditions are important factors in explaining the duration of unemployment for working-age groups. We observe that individuals with higher education (i.e. graduated from a university) have shorter unemployment duration than those with lower education (i.e. primary, middle and high school graduates). Our overall findings (both from transition and duration applications) suggest that women are in the disadvantaged position in the Turkish labor market. Further, regardless of gender difference, we observe that labor market conditions are significant determinant of transitions in the labor market. The same is also observed in the unemployment duration part for all data as well as for both first-time and other job-seekers.
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Haile, Yohannes. "Sustainable Value And Eco-Communal Management: Systemic Measures For The Outcome Of Renewable Energy Businesses In Developing, Emerging, And Developed Economies." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1459369970.
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Henriques, Ana Filipa Silva de Castro. "Globalização da População. Modelo de Transformação Global. Que Portugal em 2051?" Doctoral thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/69616.
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Os últimos trezentos anos foram marcados por mudanças que transformaram a evolução da população mundial. O que inicialmente se pensava ser um processo restrito a um grupo de países europeus, cedo se tornou um fenómeno global e hoje todos os países, independentemente do seu grau de desenvolvimento económico posicionam-se num estádio d’A Mudança.
Neste processo de mudança, a população mundial passa por uma transformação global e encaminha-se para um estádio de Globalização da População. Para este processo de transformação da população estar completo, cada sociedade terá que atravessar três mudanças estruturais: a Globalização Demográfica; a Globalização Económica e a Globalização Política e uma mudança transversal: a mudança na “qualidade das pessoas”. Apenas passando por estas mudanças, será possível à população transmutar da Era da “Quantidade” para a Era da “Qualidade” e alcançar o estádio da Globalização da População.
Esta investigação pretende apresentar um Modelo que sistematiza as condicionantes que permitiram esta Transformação Global da População e as consequências deste processo. Só com o conhecimento sobre as etapas da evolução da população é possível separar o que são as tendências naturais da evolução de um sistema demográfico em transição, das tendências reversíveis ou temporárias, e assim conjugar e canalizar esforços em medidas de política de mitigação e adaptação, evitando o “desperdício” dos recursos.
É na aplicação deste Modelo de Transformação Global da População à realidade portuguesa que tomamos consciência de que a evolução das suas gentes também ela seguiu uma tendência d’A Mudança… num processo de forças aparentemente casuísticas e invisíveis. Mas é na identificação destas forças que compreendemos que a evolução resulta de um processo bem definido, passível de se traduzir numa “equação de variáveis” (demográficas, económicas e políticas), onde o que muda são os parâmetros (cultura, geografia, história, características socais, religião, recursos naturais e humanos, etc.) que influenciam o ritmo de cada país. Foi o que se procurou traduzir na formulação da Equação fundamental do Modelo:
Assim, como será então a população portuguesa em 2051? Quantos e como seremos? Que mudança de paradigma se avizinha para a sociedade portuguesa? Que ferramentas temos ao nosso alcance para mitigar e adaptar esta transição (in)evitável?The last three hundred years were shaped by changes that transformed the evolution of world´s population. What initially was thought to be a process restricted to a group of European countries, soon became a global phenomenon. Today, all countries, regardless their degree of economic development, are in one stage of The Transition. In this process of Transition, the world population is undergoing a global transformation and sets out for a stadium of Globalization of Population. To complete this process of transformation of the population, each country will have to undergo three structural changes: Demographic Globalization; Economic Globalization and Politic Globalization, and a transversal change: the change in "quality of people". Only going through these changes will make it possible to transmute from an "Age of Quantity" to the “Age of Quality", and reach the stage of Population Globalization. This research aims to present a model that explores the conditions which led to this Global Population Transformation and the consequences of this process. Only by acknowledging these stages of population change will allow to differentiate what are the natural trends of a demographic system in transition, from the reversible and temporary trends, and hence, unite efforts in policy measures avoiding the "waste" of limited resources. It is by applying this Global Population Transformation Model to Portuguese reality, that we realize that the evolution of its people also followed this trend of “The Transition”... in a process of seemingly unseen forces. However, it is by identifying these forces that we understand that evolution is the result of a well-defined process, which may be translated into an "equation of variables" (demographic, economic and political) but the pace of each country is set by changes of the respective parameters (culture, geography, history, social characteristics, religion, natural and human resources, etc.). That's what we tried to translate with the formulation of Model's Fundamental Equation: So, how will the Portuguese population be in 2051? How many and how will we be? What paradigm shift lies ahead for Portuguese society? What tools do we have at our disposal to mitigate and adapt this (in)evitable transition?
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Lee, Gigi Nga Chi. "Family values and the one-child policy: attitudes of affluent urban China daughters." Thesis, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1828/229.
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This study explores the one-child policy as viewed by the present generation of single daughters who grew up in urban China, and the extent to which this policy has affected their family values. Through snowball sampling methods, semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 12 unmarried only-child daughters from urban China now studying in Victoria and Vancouver. For purposes of comparison, 11 unmarried only-child daughters of the same generation were also interviewed in Hong Kong during the same time period. The findings revealed that some only-child daughters from urban China experienced low dissemination and enforcement of the one-child policy and expressed noncompliance and dissatisfaction towards the policy. A comparison between the China and Hong Kong samples indicates that the one-child policy has limited effect on the family values of the only-child daughters in urban China. By exploring the concept of governmentality, the demographic transition theory, and the concept of resistance, this thesis aims to address the dynamics between action of state power and the reaction of only-child daughters from urban China born under the one-child policy.
Books on the topic "Demographic transition theory"
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Greenhalgh, Susan. Anthropological contributions to fertility theory. New York, N.Y: Population Council, Research Division, 1994.
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O'Rourke, Kevin H. From Malthus to Ohlin: Trade, growth and distribution since 1500. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002.
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Caldwell, John C., B. K. Caldwell, P. Caldwell, P. F. McDonald, and T. Schindlmayr. Demographic Transition Theory. Springer, 2006.
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Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4498-4.
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Caldwell, B. K., P. Caldwell, P. F. McDonald, T. Schindlmayr, and John C. C. Caldwell. Demographic Transition Theory. Springer, 2010.
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Iverson, Shepherd. Evolutionary demographic transition theory: Comparative causes of prehistoric, historic and modern demographic transitions. 1992.
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Penn, Handwerker W., ed. Culture and reproduction: An anthropological critique of demographic transition theory. Boulder, Colo: Westview Press, 1986.
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Handwerker, W. Penn. Culture and Reproduction: An Anthropological Critique of Demographic Transition Theory. Westview Pr (Short Disc), 1986.
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Mooney, Graham. Historical Demography and Epidemiology: The Meta-Narrative Challenge. Edited by Mark Jackson. Oxford University Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199546497.013.0021.
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Demography and epidemiology tend to analyse human processes in the aggregate. This article illustrates that definitions of demography and epidemiology provide some understanding of how they are typically used in medical history. The influence of demographic and epidemiological transition theories is discussed. The article mentions that extensive research into fertility behaviour in the past has dismantled many aspects of demographic transition and reveals that epidemiological transition has proved more durable in the face of empirical testing, but it is nonetheless problematically hidebound to a narrative of progress and modernization. This article also focuses on the complicated relationship between migration and health and is considered crucial for understanding patterns of population growth, health, and illness. Finally, it outlines some of the ways that innovative research on life-course experiences and famine demography has shaken the trees of long-held medical historical assumptions.
Book chapters on the topic "Demographic transition theory"
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Carlson, Elwood. "Reformulating Second Demographic Transition Theory." In The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, 7–26. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93227-9_2.
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Filipe, José António, and Manuel Alberto M. Ferreira. "A Discussion on Corruption and Political Risks in Latin American Countries 1 : A General View Using the Chaos Theory 2." In Economic Growth and Demographic Transition in Third World Nations, 377–96. Includes bibliographical references and index.: Apple Academic Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780429433894-21.
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Brons, M. D. (Anne). "Cross-National Variation in the Link Between Parental Socio-Economic Status and Union Formation and Dissolution Processes." In Social Background and the Demographic Life Course: Cross-National Comparisons, 17–34. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67345-1_2.
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AbstractThe main objective of this chapter is to understand the link between parental socio-economic status (SES) and union formation and dissolution processes from a cross-national comparative perspective. According to the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory, it can be expected that the impact of parental background on these union dynamics differs across societal contexts. Integrated results from prior studies using meta-analytical tools indicate that in many European countries, young adults from advantaged backgrounds delay their first co-residential union and have a higher risk to dissolve their union compared to young adults from disadvantaged backgrounds. The strength of this link between parental SES and union dynamics varies across countries. There is suggestive evidence that the link between parental SES and union dynamics is weakest in North-Western European countries that are most advanced in the SDT. However, next to these SDT-related indicators that focus more on cultural change, institutional country-level indicators, like the extent of educational expansion, and economic country-level indicators, such as the level of economic uncertainty, might also play a role.
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Mills, Melinda, and Hans-Peter Blossfeld. "The Second Demographic Transition Meets Globalization: A Comprehensive Theory to Understand Changes in Family Formation in an Era of Rising Uncertainty." In Negotiating the Life Course, 9–33. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8912-0_2.
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Han, Sapphire Yu, and Cees H. Elzinga. "Modeling the Genesis of Life Courses." In Social Background and the Demographic Life Course: Cross-National Comparisons, 125–40. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67345-1_7.
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AbstractLife course research has been dominated by methods and models that focus on the description of life course patterns and on the causal patterns between agency- and structure-related variables on the one hand and, on the other hand, outcomes in later life. Little attention has been paid to modelling the driving force, the mechanism, that generates the chain of successive events and stages of the life course: the sequences of individual decisions pertaining to all facets of the life course. This paper presents the minimal requirements that models should satisfy in order to be considered as life course generating models. The paper then proposes Hidden Markov Models as one of the main building blocks of life course generating models and discusses a few applications of these models in the domains of family formation, school-to-work transition and their interaction.
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Zoutewelle-Terovan, Mioara, and Joanne S. Muller. "Adding Well-Being to Ageing: Family Transitions as Determinants of Later-Life Socio-Emotional and Economic Well-Being." In Social Background and the Demographic Life Course: Cross-National Comparisons, 79–100. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67345-1_5.
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AbstractThis chapter focuses on adult family-related experiences and the manner in which they affect later-life socio-emotional and economic well-being (loneliness, employment, earnings). Particularly innovative is the investigation of these relationships in a cross-national perspective. Results from two studies conducted by the authors of this chapter within the CONOPP project show that deviations from family-related social customs differently impact socio-emotional and economic well-being outcomes as there is: (a) a non-normative family penalty for loneliness (individuals who never experience cohabitation/marriage or parenthood or postpone such events are the loneliest); and (b) a non-normative family bonus for women’s economic outcomes (single and/or childless women have the highest earnings). Moreover, analyses revealed that European countries differ considerably in the manner in which similar family-related experiences affect later-life well-being. For example, childlessness had a stronger negative impact on loneliness in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe and the observed heterogeneity could be explained by culturally-embedded family-related values and norms (childless individuals in countries placing stronger accent on ‘traditional’ family values are lonelier compared to childless individuals in less ‘traditionalistic’ nations). In terms of economic outcomes, results show that the lower the female labor force participation during child-rearing years, the more substantial the differences in later-life employment and income between women with different family life trajectories.
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Ette, Andreas, and Marcel Erlinghagen. "Structures of German Emigration and Remigration: Historical Developments and Demographic Patterns." In IMISCOE Research Series, 43–63. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67498-4_3.
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AbstractGermany today is one of the world’s most important countries of immigration but at the same time a country of emigration. During the last three decades, more than 3.3 million German citizens have left the country whereas 2.5 million have returned. Overall, 3.8 million Germans live outside Germany in another country of the OECD. The chapter analyses basic structures of German emigration and remigration. Germany’s development as a country of emigration includes major historical predecessors but also a more recent, slowly increasing level of international mobility of the German population. The geographical pattern of departure from Germany describes emigration as a heterogeneous phenomenon related to urban regions with higher shares of well-qualified people, but also close spatial links, at least with the neighbouring countries in the south and the west. In the long term, Europe has stabilised as the major destination region whereas the Americas, overall, have lost their attraction compared to earlier periods of emigration. Demographically, international mobility is a phenomenon of the younger population in particular and closely related to other transitions within the life course including changes in relationship status. The motives of migration illustrate the close link between economic, but also partnership and family-related reasons to help us understand Germany’s recent experiences with international mobility.
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Niedt, Greg. "A Tale of Three Villages: Contested Discourses of Place-Making in Central Philadelphia." In The Life and Afterlife of Gay Neighborhoods, 159–80. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66073-4_7.
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AbstractAs the acceptance of queer identities has proceeded in fits and starts over the last few decades, the question has been raised, is it still necessary to have dedicated queer spaces? City dwellers often reason that with supposed improvements in safety and social mixing, the “gay ghettos” that form a transitional stage in neighborhood revitalization should now become common areas. Yet the capitalist logic that drives this thinking often trades the physical threat of exclusion or violence for an existential one, jeopardizing a distinctive culture that remains valuable in the self-realization process of local queer citizens. This is visible not only in changing demographics, but also in the production of discourse across multiple levels; language and semiotics help to constitute neighborhoods, but also to conceptualize them. This chapter examines how public signs and artifacts reify and sustain three competing narratives of a single central Philadelphia neighborhood in flux: the traditionally queer “Gayborhood” that developed shortly after World War II, the officially designated “Washington Square West,” and the realtor-coined, recently gentrifying “Midtown Village.” I argue that the naming and describing of these spaces, and how their associated discourses are reflected by their contents, continues to play a role in the ongoing struggle for queer acceptance. Combining observational data of multimodal public texts (storefronts, flyers, street signs, etc.) and critical discourse analysis within the linguistic/semiotic landscapes paradigm, I present a critique of the presumed inevitability of queer erasure here. This is supplemented with a comparison of grassroots, bottom-up, and official, top-down documents in various media (maps, brochures, websites, social media, etc.) that perpetuate the different discourses. Ultimately, a change in urban scenery and how a neighborhood is envisioned only masks the fact that spaces of queer expression, marked by their eroding distinctiveness rather than their deviance, are still needed.
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"Theories of the Demographic Transition." In Unified Growth Theory, 115–39. Princeton University Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcm4h7m.7.
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"The demographic transition — facts and theory." In Population and Development: The Demographic Transition. Zed Books, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9781350221819.ch-04.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Demographic transition theory"
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Lari, Noora, Noof Al-Rakeb, Noor Al Emadi, and Sundos Ashi. "Fertility Transitions: Implications for Future Demographic Trends in Qatar." In Qatar University Annual Research Forum & Exhibition. Qatar University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.29117/quarfe.2020.0253.
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Introduction: In Qatar, while most of the country’s demographic situations have been widely studied, much less attention has been paid to the determinants of Qatari women’s sociodemographic characteristics and the prevalence of family planning methods. This raises the following question: How, and to what extent, do population dynamics that stratify national populations by age; sex; marital status; and level of education, income, and employment contribute to the declining of fertility rate and cause mortality differentials in Qatar. Materials and methods: Data from a 2018 fertility survey project with a random sample of 607 Qatari households, collected via personal interviews using a questionnaire and a computer assisted personal interview, by the Social and Economic Survey Research Institute at Qatar University, was examined based on a multi-dimensional model. The data were analyzed using logistic and Poisson regression techniques. Results: The data show that Qatari women’s total fertility rate is 3.2, with women in the 20–29 age group having the highest fertility rates. Evaluating the effects of women’s educational attainment and employment status revealed no significant factors influencing the agespecific fertility rate of Qatari women. In addition, the results indicate that the most common contraceptive method currently used among Qatari women is pills (29%), and their use is more prevalent among older Qatari women who have had more children than among younger Qatari women with fewer children. Conclusion/ future direction: The paper provides comprehensive policy recommendations for increasing the reproductive rate in Qatar by providing supporting programs to increase the total fertility rate and childbearing rates among Qatari women. It also promotes the provision of high-quality family planning services.
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Krumdieck, Susan. "Transition Engineering of Urban Transportation for Resilience to Peak Oil Risks." In ASME 2011 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2011-65836.
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Oil resources are finite and production decline is a fact for this century. The question is, why there has been so little policy action? This paper proposes that dealing with the complex changes involved in the transition to oil supply contraction requires new kinds of engineering modeling and analysis. There are no miracle technologies that will mitigate the need for major policy, economic, infrastructure and land use changes. Researchers have the responsibility to develop new methods and tools necessary for policy makers and planners to manage this change in direction. Without the right tools, the policy choice is between denying the problem and hoping for miracles. With the right Transition Engineering tools, the policy choices involve changes in land use, incentives, taxes and investments that efficiently reduce vulnerability and risk, increase adaptive capacity and build resilience. For more than a decade, the research and development program at the Advanced Energy and Material Systems Lab (AEMSLab) has focused on Transition Engineering. The first Transition Engineering project assesses vulnerability and risk to essential activities from oil supply contraction in the near and long term. The risk assessment method employs a probabilistic model of future fuel availability and an impact model of travel behavior adaptation to meet the probable fuel constraint. The second project is to assess travel adaptive capacity of current travel behavior and of the current urban forms using a new kind of travel survey, and to develop adaptation models for different urban development scenarios. Another important analysis is the active mode accessibility of the current urban form. The model uses GIS data and an activity model based on the demographic profile. Future urban form development, technology and infrastructure investments and behavior change are modeled using the strategic analysis method.
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Koychuev, Turar. "To Find Own Path." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.01990.
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The report reviews the search and selection of ideology, concept and models of economic development in the post-Soviet space with account of historical peculiarities, demographic processes, natural resources, scales of country and its economy, new political and legal structure, transition to open and free market economy. It evaluates the current state, defines objectives of development and ways of their implementation for a full-fledged establishment of the social economy, taking a rightful place in the world economy, which is appropriate to its own possibilities and needs, knowledge-intensive and receptive to innovations and in-demand within the international geo-economical space. In the end, must be approved by the inter-state peaceful coexistence, political tolerance, social solidarity, mutually beneficial economic cooperation that ensures a prosperous development of societies and States that Man lived happily ever after.
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Sallati, Carolina, and Klaus Schützer. "The Digitalization Principles from a User- Centered Design Perspective: A Conceptual Framework for Smart Product Development." In Entwerfen Entwickeln Erleben - EEE2021. Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil Ralph H. Stelzer, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jens Krzywinski, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.25368/2021.49.
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The industry relies on interdisciplinarity to promote advancements. The diverse engineering domains, information technologies, management and social sciences are combined in the industrial environment and oriented o society’s ever-changing demands. In parallel, the demographic shifts caused by population aging present room for innovation on many fronts, such as in health, technology, industry, products, and services, and in the same way in product development processes. In an attempt to tackle such issues, this article discusses how the addressing of the elderly population demands, particularly the demand for smart products, might be supported by the principles of production digitalization. In doing so, it proposes a conceptual framework for the development of smart products for the elderly, sustained by three core pillars: specific product lifecycle stages, Industrie 4.0 requirements for smart product development; and Industrie 4.0 enabling technologies which are integrated by the User-Centered Design philosophy. Their combination into a framework aims at addressing two main points: assist in the translation of elderly real consumers’ expectations and demands into more adequate, appealing products and in creating a transition path for companies who wish to incorporate the principles and technologies of production digitalization in their value chain. Furthermore, the article discusses how this proposal could be validated in the real industrial environment.
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A. McLaughlin, Laura, and Joanne Ricevuto. "Virtual Instruction Support for Faculty." In InSITE 2021: Informing Science + IT Education Conferences. Informing Science Institute, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/4765.
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Aim/Purpose: This research study explores the challenges, successes, and supports de-sired in implementing virtual learning following a survey of faculty for their experiences and interests. Faculty in higher education need quick, practical tools and strategies to enhance teaching and learning in a virtual classroom. Background: The sudden and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic had created an urgency to transition to a virtual learning environment, yet expectations for faculty to teach virtually may not have matched best practice and current research. Methodology: This qualitative research begins with an anonymous, emailed survey of higher education faculty designed to explore participant thoughts and experiences related to their virtual teaching in Fall 2020. The survey included a series of demographic questions related to what type of faculty they were (full-time or adjunct), which discipline they taught, which format they were teaching in, as well as 5 open-ended questions to elicit feedback to teaching in this format of their challenges, some positives, strategies used, how they assessed learning, and which workshops they would like offered to better support them. A full year after the pandemic began, we sent out a follow-up survey to check in with faculty and find out specifically new skills/mindsets they developed, new tools they may have tried, their level of stress as well as how they perceived their students’ stress and their stu-dents’ level of learning. We decided to broaden our population by sharing the follow-up survey via social media to capture a diverse audience, which included international participants. Contribution: Despite the different stress levels for most faculty and students during the pandemic of 2020-2021, our research highlights that it was also a time of growth and learning. Learning from past experiences can help us be pre-pared for future challenges related to virtual learning. Findings: We found that the emergency remote teaching caused faculty to explore new ways of teaching and learning and helped them to develop a mindset that embraced a variety of skills such as flexibility, creativity, and innovation. We also learned that being aware of the stress levels of both faculty and students is of great value to institutions and with a good infrastructure and support, virtual learning can be successful. Recommendations for Practitioners: Through our research, we have found faculty are lacking the tools necessary to engage their learners in a virtual setting. As such, best practices need to be shared and then embedded into the instructional approach. However, given the pandemic, faculty were forced to transition face to face classes to a virtual format without having been provided these best practices. Recommendations for Researchers: We recommend researchers explore the habits of minds of faculty and how they have developed and continue to develop due to challenges they experienced related to virtual learning and continue to experience. Impact on Society: Many of the skills that faculty developed due to this emergency shift to virtual teaching during 2020 and beyond are skills faculty will have for life. With support and ideas faculty can implement quickly, faculty will be better prepared to provide instruction and create settings that enhance teaching and learning in a virtual setting. Future Research: Future research could include providing a voice for students by distributing a survey to the student body for their views and perceptions on virtual learning during the pandemic and moving forward. *** NOTE: This Proceedings paper was revised and published in the journal Issues in Informing Science and Information Technology, 18, 1-30. At the bottom of this page, click DOWNLOAD PDF to download the published paper. ***
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RAUPELIENĖ, Asta, and Renata LUKĖ. "FACTORS AFFECTING HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION IN LOGISTICS ENTERPRISES." In RURAL DEVELOPMENT. Aleksandras Stulginskis University, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/rd.2017.117.
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Due to ongoing structural changes and socio-economic transition from the production economy to the knowledge economy, human capital plays a vital role in developing and creating new ideas and knowledge. Logistics industry is the fastest growing economic activity in Lithuania. The development of human capital becomes important in securing competitive advantage and improving performance for Lithuanian logistics enterprises. Logistics enterprises themselves try to find solutions how to create, develop and share the knowledge amongst its employees and how strategically develop and manage own human capital. The aim of the research is to examine the contemporary academic perspectives on measuring human capital and the factors affecting its value. In order to provide theoretical and practical basis of the factors affecting human capital formation in logistics enterprises, a study of the correlation between internal and external factors was conducted. Based on the investigation of 30 respondents from Lithuanian logistics enterprises, the correlation between 20 factors affecting human capital value was analysed via a path and correlation analysis. The results of correlation analysis showed that there was a significant negative correlation between the factors of the external environment “Demographic” (such as migration, structure of population and others) and the factor from the environment of the individual “Family” content; the correlation coefficient was -0.671. And it was positively correlated with the factor from the environment of the organisation “Culture” and “Value of organisation” (+0,695). Taking these results into consideration, the focus should be drawn on transforming the function of human resources management as well as providing a facilitative environment for developing the necessary skills in the professional and technical field.
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Rahman, Molla Hafizur, Michael Gashler, Charles Xie, and Zhenghui Sha. "Automatic Clustering of Sequential Design Behaviors." In ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2018-86300.
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Design is essentially a decision-making process, and systems design decisions are sequentially made. In-depth understanding on human sequential decision-making patterns in design helps discover useful design heuristics to improve existing algorithms of computational design. In this paper, we develop a framework for clustering designers with similar sequential design patterns. We adopt the Function-Behavior-Structure based design process model to characterize designers’ action sequence logged by computer-aided design (CAD) software as a sequence of design process stages. Such a sequence reflects designers’ thinking and sequential decision making during the design process. Then, the Markov chain is used to quantify the transitions between design stages from which various clustering methods can be applied. Three different clustering methods are tested, including the K-means clustering, the hierarchical clustering and the network-based clustering. A verification approach based on variation of information is developed to evaluate the effectiveness of each method and to identify the clusters of designers who show strong behavioral similarities. The framework is applied in a solar energy systems design problem — energy-plus home design. The case study shows that the proposed framework can successfully cluster designers and identify their sequential decision-making similarities and dissimilarities. Our framework can support the studies on the correlation between potential factors (e.g., designers’ demographics) and certain design behavioral patterns, as well as the correlation between behavioral patterns and design quality to identify beneficial design heuristics.
Reports on the topic "Demographic transition theory"
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Mejía, Daniel, María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, and Jorge Andrés Tamayo-Castaño. The demographic transition in Colombia: theory and evidence. Bogotá, Colombia: Banco de la República, November 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.538.
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Billari, Francesco C., Piero Manfredi, and Alessandro Valentini. Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, November 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/mpidr-wp-1999-014.
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Bailey, Martha, Melanie Guldi, and Brad Hershbein. Is There A Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19599.
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Quak, Evert-jan. The Link Between Demography and Labour Markets in sub-Saharan Africa. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), January 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2021.011.
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This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic, policy, and knowledge institution sources on how demography affects labour markets (e.g. entrants, including youth and women) and labour market outcomes (e.g. capital-per-worker, life-cycle labour supply, human capital investments) in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the key findings is that the fast-growing population in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to affect the ability to get productive jobs and in turn economic growth. This normally happens when workers move from traditional (low productivity agriculture and household businesses) sectors into higher productivity sectors in manufacturing and services. In theory the literature shows that lower dependency ratios (share of the non-working age population) should increase output per capita if labour force participation rates among the working age population remain unchanged. If output per worker stays constant, then a decline in dependency ratio would lead to a rise in income per capita. Macro simulation models for sub-Saharan Africa estimate that capital per worker will remain low due to consistently low savings for at least the next decades, even in the low fertility scenario. Sub-Saharan African countries seem too poor for a quick rise in savings. As such, it is unlikely that a lower dependency ratio will initiate a dramatic increase in labour productivity. The literature notes the gender implications on labour markets. Most women combine unpaid care for children with informal and low productive work in agriculture or family enterprises. Large family sizes reduce their productive labour years significantly, estimated at a reduction of 1.9 years of productive participation per woman for each child, that complicates their move into more productive work (if available). If the transition from high fertility to low fertility is permanent and can be established in a relatively short-term period, there are long-run effects on female labour participation, and the gains in income per capita will be permanent. As such from the literature it is clear that the effect of higher female wages on female labour participation works to a large extent through reductions in fertility.
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Herbert, George. How Can Middle-income Countries Improve Their Skills Systems Post- COVID-19? Institute of Development Studies (IDS), February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2021.082.
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Vocational training systems in middle-income countries are going to face multiple challenges in the post-COVID era, notably, challenges related to (1) automation; (2) the transition to a green economy, and (3) demographic pressures. Of these, automation - linked to the burgeoning ‘fourth industrial revolution’ that is set to transform the global economy - represents the most serious challenge and is the only one of the three challenges discussed in any depth in this paper. Whilst estimates of the likely scale of automation in the coming years and decades vary widely, it appears likely that waves of automation will lead to a dramatic decline in many kinds of jobs that largely involve routine, repetitive tasks. These trends pre-date COVID-19, but the disruption caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity to prepare for these challenges by implementing vocational training system reforms as part of the Build Back Better agenda. Reforms to vocational training systems will be crucial to ensuring middle-income countries respond appropriately to accelerating labour market changes. However, they should only form a limited part of that response and need to be integrated with a wide range of other policy measures. Vocational training reform will need to occur in the context of major reforms to basic education in order to ensure that all workers are equipped with the cross-cutting cognitive and socio-emotional skills they will require to perform hard-to-automate tasks and to be able to learn and adapt rapidly in a changing economy. Middle-income countries will also likely need to progressively expand social protection schemes in order to provide a safety net for workers that struggle to adapt to changing labour market requirements.