Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Demand'
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Read, Jacqueline. "Interrelated factor demands and the industrial demand for energy." Thesis, University of Surrey, 1987. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/798034/.
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Rimjha, Mihir. "On Demand Mobility Cargo Demand Estimation." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/85590.
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Recent developments in the shipping industry have opened some unprecedented trade
opportunities on various levels. Be it individual consumption or business needs, the thought of
receiving a package on the same day or within 4-hour from some other business or industry in the
urban area is worth appreciating. The congestion on ground transportation modes is higher than
ever. Since currently the same-day delivery in urban areas is carried mainly by ground modes, the
catchment area of this delivery service is limited.
The On-Demand Mobility for cargo can elevate the concept of express shipping in revolutionary
ways. It will not only increase the catchment area thereby encompassing more business and
consumers but will also expedite the delivery as these vehicles will fly over the ground traffic.
The objective of this study was to estimate the total demand for ODM Cargo operations and study
its effect on ODM passenger operations. The area of interest for this study was Northern California
(17 counties). Annual cargo flows in the study area were rigorously analyzed through databases
like Transearch, Freight Analysis Framework-4, and T-100 International for freight. The results of
this study are presented through a parametric analysis of market share. The end product also
includes the flight trajectories (with flight plan) of daily ODM cargo flights in the study region.
The On-Demand Mobility cargo operations are expected to complement passenger On-Demand
Mobility operations. Therefore, the effect of ODM cargo operations on the passenger ODM
operations was also analyzed in this study. The major challenge faced in this study was the
unavailability of datasets with the desired level of details and refinements. Since the movement of
cargo is mostly done by private companies, the detailed records of shipments are often not public
knowledge.Master of Science
The recent advancements in shipping industry has made transfer of goods both domestic and international, swifter and more reliable. Nowadays, some business and consumers in urban areas have the options of few-hours or same day delivery. Currently the same-day delivery in urban areas is carried mainly by ground modes (trucks) and hence the catchment area of this delivery service is limited. Adding to it, the traffic congestion on the urban roads is a major hinderance in growth of such services. The On-Demand Mobility for cargo can reform express shipping in revolutionary ways. The concept vehicle can fly over the ground traffic. Therefore, it will increase the catchment area thereby encompassing more business and consumers, along with faster delivery options in currently serviced areas. For the study, we analyzed different databases for annual cargo flows in the region. Seventeen counties in the Northern California were chosen as the study area (or region). The study was focused on estimating the potential market (demand) for the On-Demand Mobility Cargo operations. Multiple set of results were calculated for different market shares that On-Demand Mobility can potentially capture in cargo operations. Flight trajectories (with flight plan) for daily ODM cargo flights were the final product. The On-Demand Mobility cargo operations are expected to complement passenger ODM operations. Therefore, the effect of ODM cargo operations on the passenger ODM operations was also analyzed in this study. The major challenge faced in this study was the unavailability of datasets with the desired level of details and refinements.
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Junior, Dércio Julio Terrabuio. "Análise da demanda por transporte coletivo em quatro cidades médias do Estado de São Paulo." Universidade de São Paulo, 2010. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18144/tde-17012011-112058/.
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No presente trabalho, é analisado o comportamento da demanda por transporte coletivo em quatro cidades de porte médio do interior do Estado de São Paulo (Araraquara, São Carlos, Jaú e São José do Rio Preto), visando a identificar os principais fatores que afetam o volume de passageiros, como: população, valor da tarifa, índice de motorização total e desagregada (automóveis e motocicletas), quantidade de empregos formais, produto interno bruto (PIB) per capita, etc. As análises efetuadas mostram que a demanda total por transporte coletivo urbano é influenciada principalmente pelas seguintes variáveis sócio-econômicas: população, índice de motorização e PIB per capita. Outros fatores que também influenciam são: tamanho da cidade, qualidade do transporte coletivo, cultura de utilização da bicicleta, etc.. São desenvolvidos dois modelos matemáticos simples, utilizando a técnica de regressão linear múltipla, que estabelecem relação entre a demanda por transporte coletivo e as principais variáveis sócio-econômicas que a afetam, como ferramenta para a previsão da demanda em diferentes cenários conformados pelas variáveis sócio-econômicas. Os resultados apresentados pelo modelo matemático que utiliza como índice de motorização, a relação entre a frota de veículos de duas rodas e a população refletem de maneira mais próxima a realidade que o modelo que utiliza a frota total. Este modelo é adequado para ser utilizado na previsão da demanda por transporte coletivo no universo das quatro cidades analisadas com erro máximo menor que 10%.In this paper we analyzed the behavior of demand for public transportation in four mid-sized cities in the state of São Paulo (Araraquara, São Carlos, Jau and Sao Jose do Rio Preto), to identify key factors affecting the volume of passengers, such as population, amount of fare, motorization rate and total breakdown (automobiles and motorcycles), amount of formal employment, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, etc. In general, the following conclusions can be inferred from the analysis performed: the total demand for transportation in a city depends mainly on the following parameters: population, motorization rate and GDP per capita. Other indirect factors such as quality public transport, culture, use of transport, etc. They also developed two simple mathematical models using multiple linear regression technique with the objective of establishing relations between the demand for public transportation and the following key social-economic variables that were identified as those that most influence the demand: population, motorization rate and GDP per capita, which is useful for predicting the demand for public transport in different scenarios conformed by social-economic variables. The results presented by the mathematical model show that uses such as motorization rate, the relation between the fleet of two-wheeled vehicles and the population, more closely reflect the reality that the model uses the total fleet. The model uses the rate of motorization in considering two vehicles suitable for use in forecasting demand for public transportation in the universe of the four cities analyzed maximum error <10%.
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Syed, Nida Umme-Saleem. "On Demand Mobility Commuter Aircraft Demand Estimation." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/78879.
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On-Demand Mobility (ODM) is a concept to address congestion problems. Using electric aircraft and vertical take-off with limited landing (VTOL) capabilities, the ODM concept offers on demand transportation service between designated landing sites at a fraction of driving time. The purpose of this research is to estimate the potential ODM demand and understand the challenges of introducing ODM using the Northern California region (including major cities like San Francisco, Sacramento, and San Jose) as an area of study and a second, less rigorous analysis for the Washington-Baltimore region. A conditional logit model was developed to estimate mode choice behavior and to estimate ODM demand; presenting automobile and public transportation as the two competing modes to ODM.
There are significant challenges associated with the service including ability to operate in bad weather, vehicle operating cost, siting and cost of landing sites, and overall public acceptance of small, remotely operated aircraft.
Nine scenarios were run varying the input for a base fare, landing fare, cost per-passenger-mile, auto operational costs, and ingress (waiting) times. The results yielded sensitivity of demand to all these parameters and especially showed a great difference in demand when auto costs were decreased from the standard American Automobile Association (AAA) cost per mile to a likely, future auto operating cost. The challenge that aerospace engineers face is designing an aircraft capable of achieving lower operational costs. The results showed that in order for the ODM to be a competitive mode, the cost per passenger-mile should be kept at $1.Master of Science
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Algestam, Sara, and Ertuğrul Kılıçaslan. "Fulfilling customer demand Customer requirements and demands on e-commerce." Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Institutionen Ingenjörshögskolan, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-20264.
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This thesis has been carried out during second semester 2010 at University College of Borås in Collaboration with Halens AB. Halens Holding AB is one of Sweden’s leading e-commerce companies. The company contains of four subsidiaries which together create Halens Holding AB. The concern includes Halens AB, Cellbes AB, Time Finans AB and New Bubbleroom Sweden AB. The main office of Halens Holding AB is located in Borås, the company has a turnover of 1.1 billion SEK and employs 300 people. Halens Holding AB has a wide range of products; fashion, home textile, furniture’s, home electronics and beauty- and health products. Halens has recently expanded their market, and now have Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish, Danish, Estonian, Latvian, Czech, Polish, Slovakian, Russian, Swiss, Slovenian and Turkish customers.The purpose of this thesis was to investigate customer requirements and demands on e-commerce. Furthermore, the intention was also to compare customers from the different subsidiaries. The purpose could be concluded with following three bullets;Identify customer demand on; product, lead-time, service and cost. Investigate differences in customer demand at two of the subsidiaries; Halens and Cellbes. Determine different consequences to the identified customer demand; purchase, non-purchase, purchase followed by return, uncollected package. A survey was made in order to find real time information about customer behavior. The objective of the survey was to understand customers’ demands of e-commerce in general. The next step was to investigate if Halens and Cellbes fulfilled those requirements. Moreover, observations were made in order to capture the customers’ use of the web-pages. These observations provided a deeper insight of the customer requirements and demands. With survey answers and observations as a base, different customer segments could be spotted. Furthermore, the task was to find problem areas or errors from the customers’ point of view in order to improve the system. Suggested areas for improvement were presented in order to get a better match between customer demand and customer experience. During this project, a clear view of the demand and requirements of Halens and Cellbes customers has been obtained. There were not major difference between the two subsidiaries, to the contrary; the results showed that there were very similar. It can be concluded that Halens and Cellbes can improve their businesses with smaller changes. Several proposals for improvement have been developed in order to better fulfill customer demand.
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Tan, Peng Kuan. "Demand management : a cross-industry analysis of supply-demand planning." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/36139.
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Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 73-75).
Globalization increases product variety and shortens product life cycles. These lead to an increase in demand uncertainty and variability. Outsourcing to low-cost countries increases supply lead-time and supply uncertainty and variability. Coupled with the increase of mergers and acquisitions, which increase supply chain complexity, and the unforgiving nature of having too little or too much inventory, these factors have accelerated the importance and adoption of the Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process. S&OP is driven by a cross functional team, with the purpose of balancing supply and demand with the objective of maximizing a company's goals. It manages the supply and demand uncertainties, balances the different internal and external stakeholders' interests, and aligns the operations towards its strategy and vision. In support of the Supply Chain 2020 Project at MIT, this thesis focuses on analyzing the S&OP function across industries. Using the Phase I SC 2020 theses, literature, white papers, and interviews with industry experts, this thesis compares and contrasts the S&OP practices across nine industries.
(cont.) It examines their best practices and underlying principles, as well as the macro factors that have shaped the practices for the last ten to fifteen years, as well as what is expected in the future. Companies with the "best" S&OP processes collaborate internally to balance sales and operations, and align all internal stakeholders' interests. Furthermore, they collaborate externally with suppliers and customers to reduce supply and demand uncertainties. They also understand and manage demand and supply uncertainties, and align their effort towards their goals. These companies synchronize operations and are agile to changing environments.
by Peng Kuan Tan.
M.Eng.in Logistics
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Gonçalves, Paulo de Magalhães Bento. "Modelos para previsão de demanda por transporte de grãos: verificação, avaliação e análise comparativa." Universidade de São Paulo, 1996. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18137/tde-13042018-162742/.
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Neste trabalho realiza-se uma análise individual e comparativa de três modelos de demanda por transporte de grãos: de Oferta, de Incorporação de área e aumento de produtividade, e da Rede Ferroviária Federal S/A. O estudo foi desenvolvido com base num conjunto de dados coletados no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul. Esse conjunto contém dados referentes ao período de 1974 a 1994, e foi dividido em duas partes: a primeira, de 1974 a 1988, usada na calibração dos modelos, e a segunda, de 1989 a 1994, na verificação de desempenho dos modelos. A produção estimada para o segundo período foi comparada com a produção observada no mesmo período. A precisão dos modelos foi verificada para curto e longo prazos, e para dois níveis de agregação. Concluiu-se que tanto o modelo de Oferta como o modelo da RFFSA são apropriados para a previsão de curto prazo. E que o modelo de Oferta é melhor do que o de Incorporação de área e aumento de produtividade para a projeção de produção em nível agregado, e vice-versa.This work carries out an individual and comparative analysis o f three grain transportation demand models: Supply model, Area and Productivity model and RFFSA (Federal Railway) model. The study was developed based on the data set collected in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul. This set contains data related to the period trom 1974 to 1994. It was divided into two periods, the first from 1974 to 1988, used to calibrate the models, and the second, from 1989 to 1994, used to verify the performance of the models. The production estimated for second period was compared to the observed production. The accuracy of the models was verified for short and long terms, and for two levels of aggregation. lt was concluded that both Supply and RFFSA models are appropriate to the short term forecasting, and that the Area and Productivity model may be used for the long term. It was also concluded that the Supply model is better than Area and Productivity model for estimating production at the aggregate level, and vice-versa.
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Lee, Seewhy Richard. "Space on demand." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2004. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B3198714X.
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Lee, Seewhy Richard, and 李思維. "Space on demand." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2004. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B3198714X.
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Caserta, Kimberly. "Luxury Good Demand." Thesis, Boston College, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/572.
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Thesis advisor: Robert MurphyLuxury Good Consumer Trends and Advertising Spending Outcomes on the Economy This paper will explore how consumer trends in luxury goods affect the overall economy of the United States and vice versa. In economics, a luxury good is a good for which demand increases more than proportionally as income rises. Luxury goods are said to have high income elasticity of demand. In other words, as people become wealthier, they will buy more and more of the luxury good. Luxury goods are highly sensitive to economic upturns and downturns; therefore, the state of the economy will often shape consumer spending on luxury goods. However, consumer trends often fuel the economy as well. The demand for luxury goods creates jobs in manufacturing, advertising, event planning and many other areas of specialty that can contribute to a rise in GDP. An increase in exports due to a demand for American luxury goods would have a similar effect. The goal will be to discover any patterns in the data and perhaps to formulate an economic model that will expose the relationship between consumer trends in luxury goods and their effect on the economy
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2008
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
Discipline: College Honors Program
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Ortiz, Juliana Aliberti. "Impacto da Lei Seca sobre a demanda por cervejas." Universidade de São Paulo, 2015. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-02092015-095456/.
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Com o intuito de reduzir a incidência de acidentes no trânsito, em 19 de junho de 2008 foi promulgada a Lei n 11.705, que enrijece as penalidades aplicadas às pessoas que dirigem sob efeito de bebidas alcoólicas. O presente trabalho trata do impacto sobre a demanda por cervejas subsequente à aprovação da referida lei, cujas punições nela declaradas representam uma internalização de custos que o indivíduo infrator impõe à sociedade. Nesse sentido, buscando inibir o comportamento nocivo à sociedade, a lei gerou incentivos para a queda na demanda por cervejas - bebida alcoólica mais consumida entre os brasileiros. O impacto sobre a compra desses produtos é mostrado neste trabalho, também são estimadas uma função de demanda e elasticidades a partir de um modelo Nested com o objetivo de obter-se um imposto que produziria efeitos equivalentes sobre a queda na quantidade vendida.In order to reduce the incidence of traffic accidents, the Law No. 11,705 was enacted in June 19, 2008, hardening the penalties applied to people who drive under influence of alcohol. This paper deals with the impact on the demand for beers subsequent to the approval of that law, which stablished punishments in due to internalization of costs that the offender individual imposes on society. In this sense, seeking to inhibit the harmful behavior to society, the law created incentives for the drop in demand for beer - the most consumed alcohol drinking in Brazil . The impact on the purchase of these products is shown in this paper, the demand elasticities estimated from a nested model in order to obtain a tax that would produce the equivalent effect of the fall in the quantity demanded.
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Alves, Marco Aurélio Bruno. "Estudo do comportamento da demanda do aço laminado plano nos mercados interno e externo." Universidade de São Paulo, 2006. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3136/tde-13122006-172628/.
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A presente investigação teve como objetivo estudar o comportamento do preço do aço laminado plano não revestido nos mercados internacional e nacional, com ênfase à bobina de aço laminada a quente, produto com maior volume negociado internacionalmente dentre os aços planos. Tendo como premissa que esse produto é uma commodity, e que o seu preço internacional é ditado por um mercado competitivo a partir da relação entre oferta e demanda, o trabalho identifica o grau de influência de algumas variáveis independentes sobre a função demanda do produto, tais como renda, geografia, novos atores internacionais e crises políticas, dentre outras. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que, no mercado nacional, os preços internacionais e o imposto de importação têm grande influência sobre a formação do preço das usinas produtoras. Para possibilitar ao leitor um melhor entendimento sobre o setor siderúrgico, esta dissertação também descreve o setor, contemplando a sua história e evolução, as tecnologias usadas, os produtos gerados, a alocação geográfica dos mercados produtor e consumidor, a organização empresarial desse tipo de negócio, os eixos de comércio e a análise das forças competitivas.The work study the price behavior of the flat rolled steel not coated, with focus on the hot rolled steel coil, on the international and national market. Starting with the supposition that the studied product is a commodity and that its international price are made in a competitive market, from the offer and demand relationship, the work try to identify de influence degree of some independent variables over the product demand function: Income, geography, international new players, economic e politic crisis, etc. In the national market, the work show the influence of the international prices and the import duty over the steel making price curve. To permit a better understanding about the steel industry, the work describe this industry, showing his history, evolution, used technology, the products, his geography, business organization, trade axis and analise the competitive forces.
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Rashad, Ahmed (Ahmed Fathy Mustafa Rashad Abdelaal), and Santiago Spraggon. "Assembling the crystal ball : using demand signal repository to forecast demand." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/81104.
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Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 60).
Improving forecast accuracy has positive effects on supply chain performance. Forecast accuracy can reduce inventory levels, increase customer service levels and responsiveness, or a combination of the two. However, the further upstream in the supply chain, the more difficult it becomes to forecast accurately. Demand for consumer products might be subject to factors that are hard to identify and quantify. One way to overcome this is to observe external factors or predictors that might help explain demand. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the factors that potentially influence the demand of a fast-moving consumer product (bottled water), and build a demand signal repository for these factors to help the manufacturer generate more accurate forecasts. We identified more than 30 such factors that might affect demand, using interviews and industry research. We tested more than 200 causal models of the relationship between observed demand and the predicting factors. The resulting model explained almost 60% of demand for two out of three customers using daily buckets and over 85% using weekly buckets compared to less than 50% using time-series techniques. Using the results of this extensive analysis, we propose a new forecasting model. We also identified additional factors that could not be included this analysis due to the lack of data; adding these to the model may further improve the forecast accuracy.
by Ahmed Rashad and Santiago Spraggon.
M.Eng.in Logistics
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Miller, Justin (Justin Lee). "Demand estimation and fleet management for autonomous mobility on demand systems." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113541.
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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2017.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 131-137).
Mobility On Demand (MOD) systems are creating a paradigm shift in transportation, where mobility is provided not through personally owned vehicles but rather through a fleet of shared vehicles. To maintain a high customer quality of service (QoS), MOD systems need to manage the distribution of vehicles under spatial and temporal fluctuations in customer demand. A challenge for MOD systems is developing and informing a customer demand model. A new proactive demand model is presented which correlates real-time traffic data to predict customer demand on short timescales. Traditional traffic data collection approaches use pervasive fixed sensors which are costly for system-wide coverage. To address this, new frameworks are presented for measuring real-time traffic data using MOD vehicles as mobile sensors. The frameworks are evaluated using hardware and simulation implementations of a real-world MOD system developed for MIT campus. First, a mobile sensing framework is introduced that uses camera and Lidar sensors onboard MOD shuttles to observe system-wide traffic. Through a principled approach for decoupling dependencies between observation data and vehicle motion, the framework provides traffic rate estimates comparable to those of costly fixed sensors. Second, an active sensing framework is introduced which quantifies demand uncertainty with a Bayesian model and routes mobile sensors to reduce parameter uncertainty. The active sensing framework reduces error in demand estimates over both short and long timescales when compared to baseline approaches. Given estimates of customer demand, the challenge for MOD systems is maintaining high customer QoS through fleet management. New automated fleet management planners are introduced for improving customer QoS in ride hailing, ride requesting, and ridesharing MOD operating frameworks. The planners are evaluated using data-driven simulation of the MIT MOD system. For ride hailing, to address the challenge of missed customers, a chance-constrained planner is introduced for positioning vehicles at likely customer hailing locations. The chance-constrained planner provides a significant improvement in the number of served hailing customers over a baseline exploration approach. For ride requesting, to address the challenge of high customer wait times, a predictive positioning planner is introduced to position vehicles at key locations in the MOD system based on customer demand. The predictive positioning planner provides a reduction in service times for requesting customers compared to a baseline waiting approach. For ridesharing, incorrect assumptions on customer preference for transit delays can lead to poor realized customer QoS. A ridesharing planner is introduced for assigning customers to vehicles based on a trained ratings-based QoS model. The ridesharing planner provides robust performance over a range of unknown customer preferences compared to approaches with assumed customer preferences.
by Justin Lee Miller.
Ph. D.
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Drysdale, Brian. "Demand side management : flexible demand in the GB domestic electricity sector." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2014. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/69859/.
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In order to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets, the Great Britain (GB) future electricity supply will include a higher fraction of non-dispatchable generation, increasing opportunities for demand side management (DSM) to maintain a supply/demand balance. Domestic electricity demand is approximately a third of total GB demand and has the potential to provide a significant demand side resource. An optimization model of UK electricity generation has been developed with an objective function to minimize total system cost (£m/year). The models show that dispatchable output falls from 77% of total output in 2012 to 69% in 2020, 41% in 2030 and 28% in 2050, supporting the need for increased levels of future DSM. Domestic demand has been categorised to identify flexible loads (electric space and water heating, cold appliances and wet appliances), and projected to 2030. Annual flexible demand in 2030 amounts to 64.3TWh though the amount of practically available demand varies significantly on a diurnal, weekly and seasonal basis. Daily load profiles show practically available demand on two sample days at three sample time points (05:00, 08:00 and 17:30) varies between 838MW and 6,150MW. Access to flexible demand for DSM purposes is dependent on the active involvement of domestic consumers and/or their acceptance of appliance automation. Analysis of a major quantitative survey and qualitative workshop dataset shows that 49% of respondents don’t think very much or not at all about their electricity use. This has implications for the effectiveness of DSM measures which rely on consumers to actively modify behaviour in response to a signal. Whilst appliance automation can be a practical solution to realising demand side potential, many consumers are reluctant to allow remote access. Consumers are motivated by financial incentives though the low value of individual appliance consumption limits the effectiveness of solely financial incentives. A range of incentives would be required to encourage a wide cross-section of consumers to engage with their electricity consumption.
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Barbosa, Cesar Mangabeira. "DEMAND CHAIN MANAGEMENT: uma análise das práticas de gerenciamento da demanda no Brasil." Universidade de Taubaté, 2012. http://www.bdtd.unitau.br/tedesimplificado/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=574.
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Este trabalho faz uma análise das práticas de gerenciamento da demanda no Brasil. O gerenciamento da cadeia de demanda é uma extensão do gerenciamento da cadeia de abastecimento e combina as forças de marketing com as competências de supply chain, incluindo as funções de planejar, comunicar, influenciar, priorizar e prever a demanda. O sucesso de uma empresa depende do gerenciamento da demanda como parte estratégica para direcionar as decisões do presente em direção a uma posição competitiva no futuro. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é realizar uma análise das práticas de gerenciamento da demanda no Brasil, com objetivos específicos de revisar a literatura, entender os princípios de previsão, conhecer os principais indicadores de desempenho e conhecer o modus-operandi do gerenciamento da demanda no Brasil. Quanto à classificação deste trabalho, é uma pesquisa survey com abordagem quali-quantitativa, nível de investigação aplicado e foco exploratório. Os dados foram coletados exclusivamente pela internet e o endereço da pesquisa ficou disponível na rede entre os dias 23 de janeiro de 2012 e 02 de abril de 2012, neste intervalo 50 pessoas responderam ao questionário. Entre os principais resultados a pesquisa mostrou que: (1) as empresas são capazes de acompanhar o processo de gerenciamento da demanda em 92% dos casos; (2) a técnica mais importante no processo de gerenciamento da demanda é a previsão estatística (63%); (3) a maior pressão que dirige o processo de gerenciamento da demanda é melhorar a receita (58%); (4) a principal ação estratégica para melhorar o processo de gerenciamento da demanda é aperfeiçoar as previsões (72%). Este estudo é relevante porque mostra o gerenciamento da demanda como módulo de acesso e link estratégico entre os sistemas de controle e planejamento da produção e o mercado, local onde ocorre a comunicação com os clientes seja para dar informações de promessas de entrega, confirmação ou alteração de pedidos.This paper makes an analysis of demand management practices in Brazil. The demand chain management is an extension of the supply chain management and combines the marketing forces with supply chain capabilities, including functions to plan, communicate, influence, prioritize and forecast demand. The success of an organization depends on the demand management as a strategic process to direct the present decisions toward a competitive future position. The overall goal of this work is to perform an analysis of demand management practices in Brazil, with specific objectives in the literature review, understanding the principles of forecasting, key performance indicators and know the modus-operandi of demand management in Brazil. Regarding the classification of this work, it is a survey research approach with qualitative and quantitative level of applied research and exploratory focus. Data were collected exclusively by internet and the survey address was available online between the 23th January 2012 and 2 April 2012, in this range 50 people responded to the questionnaire. Among the key findings, the survey showed that: (1) companies are able to track the demand management process in 92% of cases; (2) the most important technique in demand management process is statistical forecast (63%); (3) the highest pressure to drive demand management process is to improve revenue (58%); (4) the main strategic action to improve demand management process is to improve forecast (72%). This study is relevant because it shows the demand management module as a strategic link between access and control systems and production planning and marketing, where communication occurs with customers either to give information delivery promises, confirm or change applications.
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Botha, Andre Pieter. "Modelling tourism demand elasticities for South Africa using demand systems / Botha A.P." Thesis, North-West University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/8160.
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International tourism to South Africa has increased steadily from 1994 to 2008. The year 2009 saw international arrivals to South Africa decline significantly and it became evident that the worldwide recession impacted not only on tourism arrivals in other countries, but also in South Africa. This sudden drop in international tourism sparked renewed interest into the demand for South Africa as a destination. It became evident that understanding the factors that influence foreign countries’ demand for South Africa as a tourism destination is crucial to anticipating future changes and formulating policy.
Of particular importance are South Africa’s main tourism markets. From an intercontinental perspective, the United Kingdom is the most important market with 15 per cent of intercontinental tourists stemming from the UK in 2009 (Government Communications of South Africa, 2012). The UK is followed by Germany with 8 per cent, with the USA taking third position with 7 per cent in terms of intercontinental arrivals. As a market that grew substantially in importance over the past decade (moving from fifth position in 1994 to third position in 2009), and due to the size of the potential market, the USA is another market that warrants investigation.
An Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and a Rotterdam model is used to examine tourism demand for South Africa by UK and USA tourists This is done to quantify UK and USA tourism demand for South Africa, specifically the elasticities associated with tourism demand. Five other destinations were included along with South Africa (Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Spain and USA in the case of UK tourists) to examine the substitute and complementary effects that a change in tourism price brings forth. For the USA case, five destinations were chosen (Italy, Spain, New Zealand, Spain and the UK). The two models are compared to establish whether one model can better explain tourism demand from the UK and the USA to South Africa than the other model.
The models provide policy makers with useful information on the sensitivity of tourism demand to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, expenditure, seasonality and the global recession of 2008. Short–term elasticities, that are critical when focusing on policies regarding own–price, cross–price and expenditure elasticities, were derived from both models.
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The results for the Rotterdam model show that price competiveness is important for UK and USA demand for all the countries in the study but, in particular, the long haul destinations ? South Africa and Malaysia. This was expected as these two destinations are seen as ‘luxury’ destinations for both UK and USA tourists. In the South African case, Malaysia, Italy and the UK are seen as substitutes by US tourists and Malaysia, Spain and USA seen as complementary destinations for South Africa by UK tourists.
The results for the EC–AIDS model show that, in terms of expenditure elasticities, almost all of the countries are close to unity, which can be attributed to the dynamic nature of the EC–AIDS model, in that tourists’ choices are taken in account. It was also shown that, in terms of price competiveness for the UK and the USA, demand in South Africa is relatively unimportant. This means that tourists are not discouraged from visiting South Africa when prices increase. South Africa is viewed as a substitute destination for Italy, Spain and the USA for UK tourists but as a complement to Malaysia. USA tourists view South Africa as a substitute for Italy, Malaysia and the UK but as a complement to Spain.
The two models were compared using a J–test and it was found that the EC–AIDS model dominates the Rotterdam model for UK tourists in the South African case but is indifferent for USA tourists when choosing a model.Thesis (MCom (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.
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Sani, Babangida. "Periodic inventory control systems and demand forecasting methods for low demand items." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.309040.
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Sarkar, Sourish. "Use of Advance Demand Information in Inventory Management with Two Demand Classes." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/38831.
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This work considers inventory systems with two demand classes, where advance demand information is available. Three related scenarios are presented: three-stage production-inventory systems are studied in first two, whereas pure inventory systems are studied in the last scenario.
In the first scenario, continuous review production-inventory systems are considered, where only one class provides advance demand information and early demand fulfillment is permitted. A new approach for production replenishment and order fulfillment in such systems is proposed, which combines the benefits of early fulfillment with Kanban-based pull systems. Simulation is used to compare the performance of the resulting policy with two other policies for a variety of scenarios (depending on the arrival rates, system utilizations, cost structures, arrival ratio, priority levels and amount of the advance demand information). A simulation-based lower bound on the optimal cost is established for some specific scenarios. The proposed policy outperforms the existing policies in every setting considered. Also, the proposed policy has added advantage of both retaining the benefit at high system utilizations and increasing the benefit up to the maximum level of advance demand information provided. A small fraction of customers providing advance demand information with early fulfillment acceptable is shown to have higher benefit than all customers providing same advance demand information with no early fulfillment.
In second scenario, both classes provide advance demand information in production-inventory systems, though only one class accepts early fulfillment. Different levels of system utilization, arrival ratio and backorder cost are considered in the simulation experiments to show the superiority of early fulfillment. Also, experiments suggest that lowering the expected supply lead time may be more beneficial than increasing the demand lead time by the same amount for production-inventory systems with utilization dependent supply lead times.
In third scenario, pure inventory systems are considered, where the demand classes provide different amount of advance demand information, and only one class accepts early fulfillment. The structure of an optimal policy is analytically characterized for periodic review systems under some specific conditions.Ph. D.
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Cardoso, André Ribeiro. "Estudo da disposição a pagar por eficiência energética: o caso dos refrigeradores no Brasil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2015. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-14082015-111053/.
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O presente trabalho pretende estudar a disposição a pagar do consumidor brasileiro por produtos com maior eficiência energética. Entender o quanto o consumidor está disposto a pagar por um ganho de eficiência pode contribuir na elaboração de políticas públicas para o setor elétrico, e na criação de incentivos à indústria para produção e investimentos neste tipo de tecnologia. O trabalho utiliza-se de uma pesquisa de campo sobre posse de equipamentos e hábitos de uso, realizada pela Eletrobrás/Procel em 2005. A metodologia empregada segue a linha de trabalhos já realizados em outros países, a exemplo dos estudos realizados por Dubin e McFadden (1984) e Sammer e Wüstenhagen (2006). Os resultados encontrados apontam para uma subestimação dos consumidores quanto à avaliação da economia proporcionada por produtos mais eficientes. Sendo assim, abre-se espaço para campanhas de conscientização e valorização dessas tecnologias ou incentivos monetários para consumo dos mesmos.The focus of this research is to investigate the Brazilian consumer\'s willingness to pay for products with more energy efficiency. Measuring how much the consumer is willing to pay could provide us with good insights that may help in discussing politics regarding the electric sector, plus it may guide politics in taking actions and decisions on incentives in order to promote this kind of more efficient technological products. This investigation is based on a field research regarding the possess of appliances and their uses, consisting of 4310 household questionnaires. The methodology applied follows previous work on this field and similar studies made for other countries. Examples are Dubin e McFadden (1984) for space and water heating in the USA and Sammer e Wüstenhagen (2006) for washing machines in the Switzerland. The results make clear an underestimation of the monetary economy due to the use of more efficient products. Therefore, there\'s an opportunity for the government to motivate and promote this kind of technology, either through advertising for and awareness of the general population, or through subsides to the industry to produce more efficient products or monetary incentives for the their purchases.
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Fernandes, Filho Roberto Braga. "Integração de modelos de previsão de demanda qualitativos e quantitativos e comparação com seus desempenhos individuais." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/117896.
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Um bom sistema de previsão de demanda é um dos passos para o sucesso de uma empresa. Previsões com baixos erros permitem a manutenção de um estoque reduzido, uma ocupação de fábrica e uma gestão financeira mais eficiente, em conjunto com outros benefícios trazidos por um sistema confiável. Há diversas formas de realizar uma previsão, mas há anos a que vem sendo considerada mais promissora é a que integra métodos quantitativos e qualitativos. Ambos os métodos possuem vantagens exclusivas, o que torna a integração particularmente interessante. Este trabalho visa o desenvolvimento e teste de um sistema de previsão em uma empresa de grande porte, a fim de disponibilizar uma forma confiável de integração de métodos. Busca ainda validar o auxilio de especialistas nos ajustes de previsão de forma que os problemas provenientes do julgamento humano possam ser evitados. Uma comparação entre as várias previsões realizadas é apresentada, de forma que o leitor possa interpretá-las e julgar quais possam ser as mais adequadas à situação em que se encontra.A good forecasting system is one of the steps to the success of a company. Forecasts with small errors enable the maintenance of a reduced inventory, a more efficient factory occupation and financial management, together with other benefits provided by a reliable system. There are several ways to make a forecast, but for years the quantitative and qualitative methods integrated has been considered more promising. Both methods have unique advantages which makes it particularly interesting integration. This paper aims to develop and test a forecasting system in a large company in order to provide a reliable form of integration methods. It also seeks to validate the aid of experts in the predictive adjustments so that problems derived from the human judgment can be avoided. A comparison of the various forecasts made is provided in a way that the reader can interpret them and judge which may be the most appropriate to the situation you are in.
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Poley, Christoph. "Databases on Demand (DBoD)." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2009. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-ds-1243940783742-43919.
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In einer der letzten Ausgaben haben wir ausführlich über das Projekt DBoD berichtet. Darin wurde detailliert auf den Inhalt von DBoD, die Benutzergruppen an den Hochschulen, auf technische Details und die Verknüpfung it dem Datenbank-Informationssystem (DBIS) eingegangen. DBoD wird von der Europäischen Union im Rahmen des Europäischen Fonds für regionale Entwicklung (EFRE) gefördert. Seitdem ist ein halbes Jahr vergangen. Zeit, in der sich DBoD von einem Projekt in den Startlöchern hin zu einem anerkannten Bibliotheksdienst im Produktivbetrieb entwickelt hat, ein Produkt aus Sachsen für ganz Sachsen. Und genau hier liegt der entscheidende Vorteil gegenüber vorhandenen Lösungen für das Betreiben von CD/DVD-ROM-Datenbanken.
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Ertem. "Demand Driven Disassembly Planning." Master's thesis, METU, 2007. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12608169/index.pdf.
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In this thesis, we deal with the demand driven disassembly planning. The main aim of the study is to construct heuristic approaches according to the suggested improvements in the literature. These heuristic approaches are further improved by recognizing the key points of the disassembly planning problem. All of the solution approaches aim minimizing total cost related to relevant costs of disassembly operations. Another subject given attention in this thesis is the importance of the setup cost on the disassembly planning, which has not been studied yet in the literature to the best of our knowledge. Computational studies are carried out to assess the performance of the heuristic procedures proposed.
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Heikkila, Eric John. "Housing demand and taxation." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1986. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/27109.
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This dissertation has two primary objectives: (1) to develop and test empirically a model of housing demand complete with tenure choice and moving costs, and (2) to demonstrate how this model can be used to evaluate alternative housing-related tax changes.
The proposal evaluated here is the introduction of mortage interest deductibility in Canada. Similar income tax deductions have long been in effect in the United States and Great Britain. However, this model rejects the proposal on both equity and efficiency grounds.
The housing demand model was tested empirically using a sample of households from the Toronto metropolitan area. These results confirm that transactions costs and other barriers to residential mobility are a vital component of the households' decision-making process.
This key empirical result is not only important in the context of the demand for housing. It also impinges on the equity and efficiency of proposed tax changes. It is shown in this thesis that the deadweight loss attributable to mortgage interest subsidies are not as severe as has sometimes been claimed, particularly in the short run. The reason is that subsidies are effectively transformed into lump sum grants when residential immobility is high. And there is no deadweight loss due to lump sum grants.
The main findings of this thesis may therefore be summarized as follows: (1) the housing demand decision is best understood when barriers to residential mobility are modelled explicitly, and (2) the presence of these barriers must be taken into consideration when calculating the short run welfare implications of proposed housing-related tax changes.Arts, Faculty of
Vancouver School of Economics
Graduate
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Burghart, Daniel Robert. "Demand for public goods /." view abstract or download file of text, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1421618221&sid=2&Fmt=2&clientId=11238&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2007.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-115). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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Jo, Tae-Hee Lee Frederic S. "Microfoundations of effective demand." Diss., UMK access, 2007.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Dept. of Economics. University of Missouri--Kansas City, 2007."A dissertation in economics and social science consortium." Advisor: Frederic S. Lee. Typescript. Vita. Title from "catalog record" of the print edition Description based on contents viewed July 30, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 196-220). Online version of the print edition.
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Martin, C. A. "International tourism demand forecasting." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.379816.
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Bakti, Zulkifli Abdul Kadir. "A demand driven multiprocessor." Thesis, University of Bath, 1985. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.352834.
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It is thought that fast low cost computers can be built by employing large numbers of cheap microprocessors working together in a system. However increasing the number of microprocessors in a parallel computer system may not produce a linear increase in performance for general purpose programming. The problems seem to lie in the communication between processors and the method of exploiting parallelism. A multiprocessor system was constructed using six MC68000 microprocessors. The problems of communication and exploiting parallelism were tackled in the design of the multiprocessor system. The component processors in a multiprocessor system communicate with each other through a communication channel. It is essential that the communication hardware has a high bandwidth. A fast communication hardware was implemented based on a two port shared memory. One method of extracting parallelism in a computing problem is by using divide and conquer. A software system was developed that enables the multiprocessor to exploit parallelism derived by the divide and conquer method. A software kernel is employed to manage the scheduling of parallel tasks to processors and the communication between processors. The mode of computation is based on the demand driven model.
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Mori, Yutaka. "Demand for interactive television." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/11863.
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Hilletofth, Per. "Demand-Supply Chain Management." Doctoral thesis, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-21732.
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Purpose: This research aims to enhance the current understanding and knowledge of the demand-supply chain management (DSCM) concept by determining its elements, benefits, and requirements, as well as by analyzing key elements of the concept. Methodology: This research has utilized the case study strategy and the survey strategy, however, the case study strategy dominates. The case study research has involved five companies originating from Sweden and the collection of empirical data mainly from in-depth interviews with key persons representing senior and middle management. The survey research targeted the largest firms in Sweden and Finland and empirical data was collected through an online questionnaire. Findings: This research has established that the main elements of DSCM include market orientation, coordination of the demand and supply processes, viewing the demand and supply processes as being equally important, as well as value creation, differentiation, innovativeness, responsiveness, and cost-efficiency in the demand and supply processes. It has also been revealed that the main benefits of DSCM include enhanced competiveness, enhanced demand chain performance, as well as enhanced supply chain performance, while the main requirements of DSCM include organizational competences, company established principles, demand-supply chain collaboration, and information technology support. A key element of DSCM further investigated is differentiation focused supply chain design. It has been shown that these efforts can be organized into a process of five stages. In addition, it is important that this process is addressed in parallel with the new product development (NPD) process, that information is exchanged between them, and that they are directed on the basis of the same segmentation model. Another key element of DSCM further investigated is coordination between NPD and SCM. This research has identified several significant linkages between these management directions, which motivate the use of an integrative NPD process where the NPD functions are aligned with the main supply functions in the company and other sales-related functions supporting the commercialization. A final key element of DSCM further investigated is the significance of regarding the demand processes and the supply processes as being equally important. This research has revealed that logistics outsourcing can be risky, if it results in the supply processes being considered less important. Nevertheless, if senior management regards the outsourced processes as equally important as the in-house processes, the effect of logistics outsourcing on company strategies and direction in SCM could be reduced and logistics outsourcing could instead provide an opportunity to improve the design and differentiation of the supply chain. Research limitations/implications: This research has proposed, described, and further analyzed a demand-supply oriented management approach. Such a management approach stresses that the demand processes and the supply processes have to be coordinated and directed at an overlying level, in order to gain and sustain a competitive advantage in competitive and fragmented markets. This research is mainly explorative in nature, and more empirical data, from similar and other research settings, is needed to further validate the findings. Another limitation of the research is that it is essentially limited to Swedish companies (even if some Finnish companies are involved in the survey), however, many of the case companies have a large international presence and are among the top three in their industries, facts which provide some grounds for generalization. Practical implications: This research provides researchers and practitioners with insights into how to develop a demand-supply oriented business. It shows that companies should organize themselves around understanding how customer value is created and delivered, as well as how these processes and management directions can be coordinated. In order for this to occur, the demand and supply processes must be considered as being equally important and the firm needs to be managed jointly and in a coordinated manner by the demand- and supply-side of the company. It is also important that value creation is considered in both the demand and supply processes. Originality/value: Despite strong arguments from both researchers and practitioners for a demand-supply oriented management approach only a minority of companies appear to have effectively coordinated the demand and supply processes. This might be influenced by the lack of research examining how the demand and supply processes can be coordinated, what benefits can be gained by coordinating them, and what requirements are necessary to succeed. This research contributes by investigating these types of aspects further.
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Plakhtynska, V. V. "Market demand and elasticity." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2016. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/49033.
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Demand shows the quantity of product, that people can and want to buy for this price. Demand determined by the solvent needs of buyers. It graphing, that shows such quantity of product, that needs demand at different prices and such quantity that consumers will buy at different prices.
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Zimmerman, Robert A. "On-demand Label Production." DigitalCommons@CalPoly, 2019. https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/2001.
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The production and approval process for the various labels used in clinical trials wastes significant time and resources through the need to outsource label production or rely on large reams of pre-cut label stock for each revision throughout the process. An in-house, on-demand label printing and cutting system is a potential remedy to this waste. Previous work by Cheadle et al. resulted in a functional electomechanical prototype of the label cutting aspect of this research, capable of rudimentary linear cuts. In this continued research, emphasis was placed on improved label cutting capabilities and creating PC control software for label design. Cutting operations were enhanced through the development of an algorithm for circular cuts, proportional motor control, and a prototype graphical user interface (GUI) for simple user control. The changes to cutting methods have improved linear cutting precision to an average of 0.00402-in (s = 0.00602-in, n=26) at minimum. The new method for circular cuts has an average precision of 0.04384-in (s = 0.01471-in, n=26). The target precision for cuts is 0.040-in, suggesting that linear cuts are satisfactory, but circular cuts must still be refined. The prototype user interface developed for this research is capable of driving the label cutting system through RS232 communication and exposes all functionality of the system to date. Overall, this research has enhanced the capabilities of the label cutting system significantly, but further work is required to realize a complete label production solution.
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Olinde, Lindsay. "Sediment Oxygen Demand Kinetics." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/42437.
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Hypolimnetic oxygen diffusers increase sediment oxygen demand (SOD) and, if not accounted for in design, can further exacerbate anoxic conditions. A study using extracted sediment cores, that included both field and laboratory experiments, was performed to investigate SOD kinetics in Carvinâ s Cove Reservoir, a eutrophic water supply reservoir for Roanoke, Virginia. A bubble-plume diffuser is used in Carvinâ s Cove to replenish oxygen consumed while the reservoir is thermally stratified. The applicability of zero-order, first-order, and Monod kinetics to describe transient and steady state SOD was modeled using analytical and numerical techniques. Field and laboratory experiments suggested that first-order kinetics characterize Carvinâ s Cove SOD. SOD calculated from field experiments reflected diffuser flow changes. Laboratory experiments using mini-diffusers to vary dissolved oxygen concentration and turbulence were conducted at 4°C and 20°C. Similar to field observations, the laboratory results followed changes in mini-diffuser flow. Kinetic-temperature relationships were also observed in the laboratory experiments. A definitive conclusion could not be made on the broad applicability of first-order kinetics to Carvinâ s Cove SOD due to variability within field experiments. However, in situ experiments are underway that should assist in the overall understanding of the reservoirâ s SOD kinetics.Master of Science
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Alsalous, Osama. "Global Demand Forecast Model." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/78331.
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Air transportation demand forecasting is a core element in aviation planning and policy decision making. NASA Langley Research Center addressed the need of a global forecast model to be integrated into the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to fulfil the vision of the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) at NASA Headquarters to develop a picture of future demand worldwide. Future forecasts can be performed using a range of techniques depending on the data available and the scope of the forecast. Causal models are widely used as a forecasting tool by looking for relationships between historical demand and variables such as economic and population growth. The Global Demand Model is an econometric regression model that predicts the number of air passenger seats worldwide using the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, and airlines market share as the explanatory variables. GDP and Population are converted to 2.5 arc minute individual cell resolution and calculated at the airport level in the geographic area 60 nautical miles around the airport. The global demand model consists of a family of models, each airport is assigned the model that best fits the historical data. The assignment of the model is conducted through an algorithm that uses the R2 as the measure of Goodness-of-Fit in addition to a sanity check for the generated forecasts. The output of the model is the projection of the number of seats offered at each airport for every year up to the year 2040.Master of Science
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Klein, Oliver. "Fehlmengenverteilung im demand fulfillment /." Göttingen : Cuvillier, 2009. http://d-nb.info/996826319/04.
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Syntetos, Argyrios. "Forecasting of intermittent demand." Thesis, Online version, 2001. http://bibpurl.oclc.org/web/26215.
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Selvanathan, Eliyathamby Antony. "Explorations in consumer demand." Thesis, Selvanathan, Eliyathamby Antony (1987) Explorations in consumer demand. PhD thesis, Murdoch University, 1987. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/51221/.
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This thesis contains four extensions of consumer demand as well as extensive applications of recent developments in the area. The first extension is a systematic analysis of the effects of advertising on consumption. This material includes both analytical results and empirical applications. The theory contains a comparative statics analysis of advertising and results on separability of the consumer’s utility function in the presence of advertising. The empirical application refers to alcohol consumption and advertising in the U.K. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first time that advertising of any product has been analysed within a system-wide framework; it is certainly the first time alcohol advertising has been treated in this manner.
For the second extension of consumer demand, we develop the idea that it may be useful in some contexts to have demand models that are simple, yet still fairly flexible. The basic objective is to derive a demand model which is fairly robust; has a straightforward economic interpretation; and is easy to estimate. The new model we propose satisfies this objective. This model is linear in the parameters and its application is illustrated with Dutch and British data.
The third extension involves the stochastic approach to index number theory. Early work on the stochastic approach treated all prices as moving equi-proportionately without giving any consideration to systematic changes in relative prices. Recent developments have rehabilitated this approach by allowing for such changes in relative prices. These developments lead to estimators and sampling variances of the common trend in all prices and of the relative price movements. We extend these results to the prices of groups of goods and to prices within each group. We also derive new results for the bootstrap estimator when applied to stochastic index numbers.
The fourth extension deals with the introduction of simple techniques to analyse consumption data. These techniques are useful to apply before estimating demand equations to obtain a general "feel" for the data. They provide summary measures of the data and informal estimates of key demand parameters.
The applications presented in this thesis concentrate mainly on data pertaining to the consumption of beer, wine and spirits in the U.K. The estimates of the demand equations show that, within alcohol, beer is a necessity while wine and spirits are luxuries. A cross-country comparison reveals that these results for beer and spirits also hold for Australia and the U.S. All three beverages are price inelastic in the three countries. The U.K. data also reveal that beer is in a class by itself in the drinker’s utility function.
Based on an asymptotic test, the U.K. alcohol data reject the hypothesis of demand homogeneity (the absence of money illusion). On the other hand, a finite-sample test indicates that homogeneity is acceptable at the 1 percent level of significance. This finding is confirmed by the application of a Monte Carlo testing procedure. Homogeneity also holds for the other two countries. Slutsky symmetry (the symmetry of the substitution effects) is acceptable for all three countries. Using simulation experiments we find that the small-sample properties of estimators are satisfactory.
The advertising application includes an extension of Divisia index numbers. This extension involves the introduction of new Divisia indexes including the quantity-advertising correlation and advertising-price correlation. The empirical results show that advertising does not increase the total demand for alcohol. Rather, it reshuffles a fixed amount of total alcohol consumption among the three beverages.
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Bertheau, Antoine. "Essay on Labor Demand." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020IPPAG008.
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Cette thèse est une contribution à l´économie du travail. En particulier, nous analysons la demande de travail des entreprises sous plusieurs aspects. En termes de méthodes, nous utilisons des données administratives, des données d'enquêtes et des modèles théoriques dans la lignée de la théorie de l'appariement. Dans un premier chapitre, nous étudions les mouvements sur le marché du travail au niveau macroéconomique en utilisant de nouvelles données microéconomiques sur les entreprises et leurs salariés. Nous montrons l'importance des caractéristiques des entreprises pour comprendre les flux d'emploi. Dans un deuxième chapitre, nous étudions l´organisation du travail suite à un choc d'offre de travail au niveau de l'entreprise. Nous utilisons le registre des hospitalisations et des décès pour confectionner une base de données qui permet d’exploiter les méthodes les plus récentes économétriques. Nous montrons l’importance de l'ajustement des heures de travail des collègues pour quantifier les couts de rotation de la main d'œuvre. Dans un troisième chapitre, nous analysons les stratégies des ressources humaines des entreprises. Nous utilisons la première enquête européenne qui permet de mieux comprendre le processus d’embauche et de formations des entreprises. Un des résultats de notre analyse et le lien compétition sur le marché des biens et les stratégies de recrutementsThere are three main matters regarding employers’ decisions: employment, compensation, and training. We contribute to the economic literature on employment and compensation. Specifically, the economic question of this thesis is: how do firms adjust their employment to shocks? Disruptive innovation, employee departure or supplier shutdown are a few of the many shocks that force firms to adjust their employment. These adjustments are costly, and significant differences in firm characteristics make them respond differently to similar shocks. The idea that it takes time and effort for workers to find desirable employers and firms to find suitable employees is present throughout this work. To understand how firms respond to shocks of various kinds, we combine empirical methods with theory. On the empirical side, we create unique datasets using several data sources from Denmark. Danish data has the distinctive property that sources such as administrative records, surveys, or big data from private firms can be linked. Linking information from various sources allow, among other things, to find shocks and draw causal links between economic relationships. In one project, we also draw on theoretical models where various distortions (e.g., search frictions) prevent immediate matching between employees and employers. Concretely, we bring together datasets and structural models to estimate economic outcomes (e.g, hiring costs) that are not directly observed in datasets. In the chapter entitled "Firm Adjustment to Unexpected Departures", we use quasi-experimental variation in firms’ employment to provide a new way of estimating turnover costs. In another chapter, entitled "Firm Labor Demand Over the Business Cycle" we study how, over more than 30 years, firms grow and shrink when the macroeconomic environment changes. Finally, contrary to the first two chapters that used as primary input large administrative datasets, the last chapter, "International Evidence on Hiring Practices", uses a recent survey. This is another angle to understanding firm labor demand
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John, Paul. "Modelling Recreation Demand Using Choice Experiments : Using Swedish Snowmobilers Demand for Groomed trails." Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Nationalekonomi, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-4642.
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This paper is concerned with the use of the choice experiment method for modeling the demand for snowmobiling . The Choice Experiment includes five attributes, standard, composition, length, price day card and experience along trail. The paper estimates the snowmobile owners’ preferences and the most preferred attributes, including their will-ingness to pay for a daytrip on groomed snowmobile trail. The data consists of the an-swers from 479 registered snowmobile owners, who answered two hypothetical choice questions each. Estimating using the multinominal logit model, it is found that snow-mobilers on average are willing to pay 22.5 SEK for one day of snowmobiling on a trail with quality described as skidded every 14th day. Furthermore, it is found that the WTP increases with the quality of trail grooming. The result of this paper can be used as a yardstick for snowmobile clubs wanting to develop their trail net worth, organizations and companies developing snowmobiling as a recreational activities and marketers in-terested in marketing snowmobiling as recreational activities.
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Tilford, Michael Burr. "Developing for demand : an analysis of demand segmentation methods and real estate development." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54863.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate , 2009.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 70-73).
Marketing is commonly mistaken in the real estate development industry for the practice of advertising and sales. In reality, marketing is a set of concepts and methods created primarily in the consumer packaged goods industry that start with a focus on the consumer. Many of these concepts and methods can be used in the real estate development process to create more thoughtful and competitive projects. This thesis focuses on the marketing concept of demand segmentation and whether the real estate development process could be better served through a more defined focus on identifying specific consumers through demand segmentation techniques. Specifically, this thesis will answer the following questions: What is the existing structure for real estate market analysis? What is the concept of demand segmentation and how might it apply to real estate development? How has consumer segmentation specifically been applied in real estate development ventures? What are some important considerations to be aware of when developing real estate for a specific consumer segment? To answer these questions, this thesis reviews current thinking on demand segmentation through a review of relevant, marketing related literature for both the real estate and consumer packaged goods industries. This thesis also examines three subject developments that are examples of completed real estate development projects that serve the specific needs of a deliberately identified demand segments.
(cont.) The intention of this thesis is to define current marketing practices, analyze how a concept commonly used in the consumer packaged goods industry can be adapted for real estate and discover a body of questions and conclusion that can advance the practice of demand segmentation on real estate development.
by Michael Burr Tilford.
S.M.
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Dyer, Ross. "Predicting residential demand: applying random forest to predict housing demand in Cape Town." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29602.
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The literature shows that Random Forest is a suitable technique to predict a target variable for a household with completely unseen characteristics. The models produced in this paper show that the characteristics of a household can be used to predict the Type of Dwelling, the Tenure and the Number of Bedrooms to varying degrees of accuracy. While none of the sets of models produced indicate a high degree of predictive accuracy relative to hurdle rates, the paper does demonstrate the value that the Random Forest technique offers in moving closer to an understanding of the complex nature of housing demand. A key finding is that the Census variables available for the models are not discriminatory enough to enable the high degree of accuracy expected from a predictive model.
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Hansell, Fredrik, and Axel Vällfors. "Demand Side Management : how has residential electricity demand changed during the corona pandemic?" Thesis, KTH, Energiteknik, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-298849.
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Restrictive social distancing measures imposed by governments across the world to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have led to immediate changes in general behaviour and habits, which has had major effects on electricity systems. The pandemic has highlighted the great importance of reliable electricity supply in society as many people were forced to start working from home and thus became entirely reliant on digital modes of communication and information sharing. However, the resilience of energy systems could become weakened in the future as the share of intermittent renewable energy sources keeps increasing. If working from home were to become the norm in the future, knowing how households’ electricity load curves are affected by such a change could be valuable and help increase capabilities of demand side flexibility in the household sector. In this project, appliance-level electricity demand data gathered from Swedish households is used to create a simple bottom-up model. The purpose of the model is to be able to evaluate how the total electricity demand in a residential area changes after implementing behavioral changes at a household level. Specifically, the model was used to evaluate the effect of certain households in a region switching to working from home. Results were obtained from the model in the form of estimated changes in the electricity demand for different proportions of teleworking households. These changes were then combined with electricity demand data from a residential area in Stockholm to create new load curves that show what electricity demand could look like for the residential area at different shares of households working from home. The final results are presented in the form of estimated changes in electricity demand, peak power and electricity consumption for 30, 60 and 90 percent of households working from home.The results showed that weekdays' average load profile may have changed considerably in 2020 for residential areas similar to the one studied in Stockholm. For all scenarios, the change in electricity demand was most noticeable in the middle of the day, when the peak power increased significantly. During the evening, however, neither the electricity demand nor the power peak changed significantly. The peak power during normal working hours increased by 11,6% to 17,1% depending on the season, while total electricity consumption on an average weekday increased by 4,9% to 7,4% compared to pre-pandemic values. Still, the overall weekday power peak typically occurring around dinner time remained nearly unchanged. However, examining the results for different shares of households working from home shows that if almost all were to work from home, the overall peak power could shift from occurring in the evening to the middle of the day. If a new measurement campaign of Swedish households were to be conducted in the future, the ability to predict and prepare for the electricity demand of tomorrow’s homes would improve greatly.I ett försök att förhindra spridningen av viruset COVID-19 har länder världen över infört sociala restriktioner som i många fall medfört drastiska förändringar av invånarnas vanor och beteenden samt en omfattande påverkan på landets elsystem. Pandemin har framhävt vikten av tillförlitlig elförsörjning i samhället i och med att många har tvingats börja arbeta hemifrån och således blivit helt beroende av digital kommunikation och informationsdelning. Energisystemens motståndskraft kan dock komma att försvagas i framtiden i takt med att andelen intermittenta förnybara energikällor fortsätter att öka. Om distansarbete skulle bli det nya normala i framtiden kan det vara värdefullt att känna till hur det påverkar hushållens belastningskurvor. Kunskapen kan även bidra till ökade möjligheter för flexibilitet på efterfrågesidan i hushållssektorn. I det här projektet används elbehovsdata på apparatnivå från ett stort antal svenska hushåll för att skapa en enkel bottom-up-modell över hushålls elförbrukning. Modellens syfte är att genom implementering av beteendeförändringar på en hushållsnivå kunna utvärdera hur det totala elbehovet i ett bostadsområde förändras. Specifikt användes modellen för att utvärdera effekten av att vissa hushåll i en region går över till distansarbete. Resultat erhölls från modellen i form av uppskattade förändringar av elbehovet vid olika andelar distansarbetande hushåll. Dessaförändringar kombinerades sedan med elbehovsdata från ett bostadsområde i Stockholm för attskapa nya belastningskurvor som visar hur elbehovet kan se ut för bostadsområdet vid olikaandelar distansarbetande hushåll. De slutgiltiga resultaten presenteras i form av uppskattade förändringar av elbehov, effekttoppar och elförbrukning vid 30, 60 och 90 procents andel distansarbetande hushåll. Resultaten visade att vardagars genomsnittliga belastningsprofil kan ha förändrats markant under 2020 för bostadsområden likt den studerade i Stockholm. För samtliga scenarier var förändringen i elbehovet mest märkbar mitt på dagen då effekttoppen ökade avsevärt. Under kvällstid förändrades dock varken elbehovet eller effekttoppen avsevärt. Effekttoppen under normala arbetstider ökade mellan 11,6% och 17,1% beroende på årstid, medan elförbrukningenen genomsnittlig vardag ökade med mellan 4,9% och 7,4% jämfört med innan pandemin. Kvällens effekttopp, som vanligtvis inträffar runt middagstid, var i princip oförändrad. Däremot visar resultaten att i ett scenario där en mycket hög andel av befolkningen arbetar hemifrån kan den högsta effekttoppen inträffa mitt på dagen istället för på kvällen. För framtiden skulle en ny mätkampanj som kartlägger de svenska hushållens elförbrukning kunna medföra ökade möjligheter för samhället att förbereda sig inför och förutse morgondagens elbehov.
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Pagendarm, Scott M. (Scott Michael) 1969. "The use of strategic inventory and packaging postponement to address daily demand variability and seasonal demand patterns in a demand flow environment." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9150.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Chemical Engineering, 2000.Includes bibliographical references (p. 105-106).
This LFM thesis describes how Eastman Kodak Company (Kodak) used a strategic buffer of in process inventory and delayed final packaging of end-items to address two issues that surfaced after a recent implementation of a demand-driven process in their film finishing operation. By select placement of inventory and a judicious prebuild of spools upstream of the packaging operation, Kodak has reduced manufacturing costs, maximized their ability to respond to consumer demand patterns, and minimized end-item delivery concerns associated with both daily demand variability and seasonal demand patterns. This research work was conducted during a six and a half-month internship at the manufacturing site, Kodak Park in Rochester, New York. The internship was affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Leaders for Manufacturing program. This thesis describes the technical analysis and justification for the decision to pursue this manufacturing strategy at Kodak. The concepts of strategic inventory placement and packaging postponement ( delayed differentiation) are discussed in the context of this particular application and are generalized for other manufacturing processes. In the interest of protecting company confidentiality, the numbers presented in this thesis have all been disguised. The justifications for pursuing this particular strategy within Kodak as well as generic guidelines for when these strategies may be applicable are discussed in the context of this thesis.
by Scott M. Pagendarm.
S.M.
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Sonoda, Daniel Yokoyama. "Demanda por pescados no Brasil entre 2002 e 2003." Universidade de São Paulo, 2007. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11132/tde-28022007-151841/.
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O consumo per capita de pescados no Brasil é relativamente baixo quando comparado com as outras proteínas de origem animais. Do lado da oferta, este fenômeno está relacionado com diversos fatores como, por exemplo, a sobre pesca, a baixa produção nacional, a distância entre centros produtores e consumidores etc. Este trabalho aborda os fatores que estão ligados à sua demanda, tais como: a influência dos preços e da renda da população no seu consumo. Inicialmente, caracterizou-se o problema da oferta de pescados no Brasil. Em seguida, foi feita uma revisão sobre a teoria econômica e o método de cálculo da função e de suas elasticidades para a forma funcional conhecida por Almost Ideal Demand System - AIDS. A partir dos microdados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar - POF 2002-2003, fez-se uma análise descritiva da demanda por pescados no Brasil. Finalmente, foram estimadas as funções demanda e calcularam-se as elasticidades para dois tipos de agrupamentos: um que considerou 5 grupos de proteínas animais e o outro com 7 grupos de alimentos. Estas funções foram estimadas para o Brasil e para duas macro-regiões: Norte-Nordeste e Centro-Sul. Os principais resultados são: o consumo per capita de pescados é baixo porque poucos domicílios consomem pescados. O consumo de pescado da Região Norte-Nordeste é significativamente diferente do padrão observado na Região Centro-Sul do país. Os principais produtos substitutos aos pescados no país são as proteínas mais elaboradas e não as carnes mais tradicionais como a de aves e as vermelhas. Os supermercados são os pontos de vendas mais utilizados pelos consumidores de pescados de renda mais elevada, principalmente na Região Centro-Sul, mas os pequenos estabelecimentos comerciais também possuem grande importância na comercialização de pescados para o consumidor final, principalmente, na Região Norte-Nordeste.Per capita consumption of fish in Brazil is relatively small as compared to other animal proteins. On the supply side, this phenomenon can be explained by several factors such as: low national fish production, the distance between fish supply regions and the main consumptions centers etc. This study analyses the influence of prices and population income on the demand of fish in Brazil. First, the problem of fish supply in Brazil is characterized. It is followed by reviews of the relevant economic theory and the methods of the function and the elasticity calculations for a functional form known by Almost Ideal Demand System - AIDS. A descriptive analysis of fish demand in Brazil using the microdata called the Familiar Budget Research - POF 2002-2003 is presented. Finally, demand functions and their elasticities are calculated for two different cases: one considering 5 groups of animal proteins and other with 7 groups of food categories. These functions are estimated for Brazil as a whole and two macro-regions: Northnortheast and Center-South. The main results are: per capita consumption of fish is low in Brazil because few households consume fish. The pattern of fish consumption in the North-Northeast Region is different as compared to the Center-South. The main substitutes for fish are the processed proteins and not the traditional types of meat as chicken and red meat. For high income households located mainly in Center-South Region, fish are mainly purchased in supermarkets. However, small commercial establishments are still important in the fish retail market, especially in the North-Northeast.
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Soares, Fillipe Henrique Neves. "Resposta da demanda industrial e sua influência na formação dos preços de curto prazo no mercado de energia elétrica: uma proposta." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3143/tde-27062017-140317/.
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Em diversos mercados de energia onde há competição, a formação de preços de energia elétrica no mercado de curto prazo decorre do equilíbrio da oferta e da demanda, onde geradores e grandes consumidores informam, em periodicidade horária ou inferior, as quantidades de energia e preços associados aos quais estão dispostos a produzir e consumir, respectivamente. No Brasil, no entanto, a demanda utilizada no modelo de formação de preço de energia elétrica no curto prazo (PLD) é considerada inelástica em relação ao preço. Por mais que se possam constatar sinais de resposta da demanda frente à volatilidade do PLD, ou ao custo com uso da rede de transmissão e distribuição no período de ponta, não há mecanismo estabelecido para que os consumidores ofertem as quantidades de energia e preços aos quais estão dispostos a reduzir seu consumo. O presente trabalho tem o objetivo de apresentar proposta de alteração no processo de formação de preço no curto prazo de modo a permitir a Oferta da Redução do Consumo (ORC) pelos consumidores industriais. A proposta parte da representação do parque termelétrico atual, que serve de base para o valor da oferta de redução do consumo, as adaptações para introdução da curva de operação para fins de consideração da redução de consumo, bem como metodologia para aferição do montante de energia efetivamente reduzido. Além disso, de modo a apresentar o potencial benefício sistêmico com a introdução da proposta, são apresentadas simulações com a cadeia de modelos de formação de preço atual tendo como base a indústria de alumínio no Brasil. Os cenários de ORC da indústria levam em consideração parâmetros econômicos que asseguram a atratividade do negócio em consonância com o benefício sistêmico de redução do custo de operação. Apresenta-se ainda simulação da operação do ano de 2015 com estimativa do potencial de ORC no Ambiente de Contratação Livre (ACL) onde se constatou reduções de até 25% no Custo Marginal de Operação (CMO) e 16% de redução despacho termelétrico.In several competitive power markets, short term power price is the result of the balance of supply and demand represented by bid and ask prices and energy quantities. In Brazil, short term power price (PLD) calculated by Newave/Decomp price models consider price-inflexible demand, even though traces of demand response to short term power prices and demand tariffs can be identified. The purpose of this Thesis is the proposal of changes in process of power pricing allowing large energy consumers bid their price to curtail their consumption in substitution of thermal power dispatch. Topics included in proposal are: cost of installed thermal power plants in power system, industrial demand curtail and restart features, and demand response effectiveness appraisal tools. Current power price models were employed on simulations to evaluate system\'s benefits with demand response. From an industrial perspective, accounting measures were basis to convert loss of production in demand-side bidding price in order to keep business profitability. Estimate of demand side bidding potential market in Brazilian free market with simulation of system impact in 2015 with results that reached 25% of Marginal Cost reduction and 16% of Thermal Dispatch reduction.
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Velasco, Leandro Henz. "Previsão de demanda de acessos móveis no sistema de telefonia brasileiro." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/13454.
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No presente trabalho são aplicadas ferramentas estatísticas quantitativas clássicas no setor de telefonia móvel brasileiro a fim de comparar os seus resultados. Uma metodologia é proposta para a aplicação destas ferramentas de um modo prático em uma de uma operadora de telefonia celular brasileira. Após são aplicados os métodos de previsão às séries históricas de demanda de acessos da telefonia móvel brasileira, estratificadas de acordo com as tecnologias utilizadas (TDMA, CDMA e GSM), no período de agosto de 2002 a julho de 2007. De acordo com o desempenho, são obtidos os modelos de cada método estatístico proposto. Entre estes, se escolheu aquele que melhor descreveu cada série e previsões foram geradas. Os modelos ARIMA apresentaram o melhor desempenho dentre os métodos aplicados nas séries estudadas.The activity of planning ahead their systems in an appropriate manner is fundamental to telecommunication sector agents in order to manage the resources allocation and to meet the quality requirements in the provision of mobile telephony services. As the networks and production systems deployment takes time, there is the need of a service demand forecast. Therefore, in this study, classical quantitative statistics tools are applied to the Brazilian mobile telephony sector to compare their results. A methodology for the application of such tools in a practical way within a business environment of this sector is proposed. Afterwards, forecasting methods are applied to the time series referred to Brazilian mobile telephony demand, stratified according to the technologies (TDMA, CDMA and GSM) in the period from August 2002 to July 2007. The models of each statistical method proposed, based on the performance results, are obtained and, among these methods, it is chosen a model that best described each time series. The ARIMA model had the best performance among the methods applied in the time series studied and forecasts were made.
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Kecoglu, Onur, and Melih Sua. "Analyzing Total Demand for Specified Destinations : A Total Demand Analysis for an Airline Company." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekonomi och organisation (Avd.), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-104733.
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The airline industry is a highly competitive market. Particularly after the major liberalization in the industry, the competition carried a step forward for all the concerned companies. Airline industry is a very dynamic market also; the expenses of a single operation may change substantially in a very short time period, which could be due to the fickle regulations or the fluctuation of oil prices. At any time, for a certain destination, a new airline company can start its operations and become a competitor, which can result in a market share loss for current operators. In such an environment, airline companies strive to maximize their revenues in every single flight. Load factors of a flight, classification, and pricing of airline tickets in a flight are determinative on the revenue of a single operation. In order to maximize revenue for its operations, companies should have a broad range of information about airline market conditions and passenger profile and preferences for every destination that they operate. Turkish Airlines, which is the largest airline company of Republic of Turkey and increasing its global awareness day by day, also strives to maximize its revenues per flight. In order to do so, Turkish Airlines needs to have suitable decisions regarding the capacity issues (determination of type and number of aircrafts, and flight frequencies) which will be then used worldwide in the different branches of company. These reasons lead to the increased need for the company to adopt practical total demand analysis in its operating destinations. The company aims to specify the factors, which are effective on the change of total demand for every destination. Turkish Airlines also strives to make most accurate demand forecasting in order to manage the peaks and troughs of the company’s flights. This project was brought to agenda in order to help this company to address this issue and was initiated with the purpose of making a total demand analysis for specified destinations. Destinations are from Stockholm to Athens, Thessalonica, New Delhi, Mumbai, Istanbul, Bangkok, and Dubai. This study is a quantitative study. Chosen demand factors, which constitute the total airline traffic between destination cities, are analyzed with respect to change in total demand. Various demand-forecasting methods are also applied in order to determine the best forecasting method for each destination, which is compatible with the quantitative approach. Results of the study are directly related to the airline market conditions of aforementioned destinations. Results are presented in four subheadings for every destination; overview of airline market, competition level of airline market, factors regarding the destination and demand forecasting for the destination. This study provides important information to Turkish Airlines regarding total demand analysis of specified destinations. Company learns the common factors (price, total amount of luggage, etc.) and the destination specific factors (language of crew, Frequent Flyer Programs, etc.) that are effective on the change of demand. Company may use this information in order to increase its market share (amount of passengers carried in a certain destination by Turkish Airlines from total demand) for specified destinations. With the help of this study, the company can make an accurate demand forecasting for Turkish Airlines’ future flights, which can be used in planning activities like determining the type of aircraft and flight frequency for a destination, and pricing of flight tickets through different passenger segments.
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Esteves, Mario Augusto Matos Simon [UNESP]. "Gerencimento da demanda: um survey na cadeia de suprimentos automotiva brasileira." Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/146741.
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Com o contínuo crescimento da competitividade global, o grande desafio é trabalhar de forma enxuta, mas sem prejudicar o nível de serviço ao cliente. Para isso, busca-se uma rápida e adequada integração das necessidades do mercado na direção dos fornecedores, de modo a balancear e alinhar estrategicamente a demanda com a capacidade operacional ao longo de toda a cadeia de suprimentos. Para a presente pesquisa, utilizou-se levantamento do tipo survey, e o objetivo geral é verificar o panorama atual das práticas de Gestão de Demanda e Previsão de Demanda nas indústrias da Cadeia de Suprimentos Automotiva Brasileira, identificando as principais práticas utilizadas e as principais dificuldades relacionadas à execução dos processos de gestão e previsão de demanda, bem como as consequências causadas pelas variações e incertezas de demanda. Para tanto, com base na revisão da literatura e no método hipotético dedutivo de Popper, foi elaborado um questionário que foi respondido por 37 empresas da cadeia de suprimento automotiva dos mais diversos setores. Os resultados mostram que as empresas da cadeira de suprimento automotiva fazem uso com predominância de técnicas mais simples como opiniões de executivos e da equipe de vendas e utilização de médias móveis. A falta de disponibilidade de dados, a necessidade de capacitação e treinamento da equipe e a deficiencia no conhecimento dos modelos e ferramentas de previsão de demanda aparecem como as maiores barreiras para elaboração das previsões de demanda.
With the continued growth of global competitiveness, the challenge is to work lean way, but without affecting the level of customer service. As a result, a quick and proper integration of the market requirements towards suppliers should be sought, in order to balance and strategically align the demand with the operational capacity along the entire supply chain. This research use the survey method and the overall objective is to find what the current situation of Demand Management and Demand Forecasting practices in the industries of Brazilian Automotive Supply Chain, identifying the main practices and the difficulties related to the implementation of the management and demand forecasting processes, as well as those caused consequences as a result of variations and demand uncertainties. Therefore, based on the literature review and popper´s hypothetico-deductive method, it has been designed a questionnaire that was answered by 37 companies in the automotive supply chain in various sectors. The results show that companies in the automotive supply chair make use predominantly of the simplest techniques as executive and sales force opinion methods and use of moving averages. The lack of availability of data, the need of professional training and deficiency of knowledge of the models and demand forecasting tools appear as major barriers to development of demand forecasts.
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Freire, Burgos Edwin R. "Aviation Global Demand Forecast Model Development: Air Transportation Demand Distribution and Aircraft Fleet Evolution." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/81313.
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The Portfolio Analysis Management Office (PAMO) for the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) at NASA Headquarters tasked the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate at NASA Langley to combine efforts with Virginia Tech to develop a global demand model with the capability to predict future demand in the air transportation field. A previous study (Alsalous, 2015) started the development of the Global Demand Mode (GDM) to predict air travel demand based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population trends for 3,974 airports worldwide. The study was done from year 2016 to year 2040.
This research project intends to enhance the GDM capabilities. A Fratar model is implemented for the distribution of the forecast demand during each year. The Fratar model uses a 3,974 by 3,974 origin-destination matrix to distribute the demand among 55,612 unique routes in the network. Moreover, the GDM is capable to estimate the aircraft fleet mix per route and the number of flights per aircraft that are needed to satisfy the forecast demand. The model adopts the aircraft fleet mix from the Official Airline Guide data for the year 2015. Once the aircraft types are distributed and flights are assigned, the GDM runs an aircraft retirement and replacement analysis to remove older generation aircraft from the network and replace them with existing or newer aircraft. The GDM continues to evolve worldwide aircraft fleet by introducing 14 new
generation aircraft from Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, and Embraer and 5 Advanced Technology Aircraft from NASA.Master of Science
The Portfolio Analysis Management Office (PAMO) for the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) at NASA Headquarters tasked the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate at NASA Langley to combine efforts with Virginia Tech to develop a global demand model with the capability to predict future demand in the air transportation field. A previous study (Alsalous, 2015) started the development of the Global Demand Mode (GDM) to predict air travel demand based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population trends for 3,974 airports worldwide. The study was done from year 2016 to year 2040. The previous study done by Alsaous, predicts how many seats will be departing out of the 3,974 airports worldwide. This project intends to use the outputs of the GDM and distribute the seats predicted among the airports. The objective is to predict how many seats will be offered that will be departing from airport “A” and arriving at airport “B”. For this, a Fratar model was implemented. The second objective of this project is to estimate what will the aircraft fleet be in the future and how many flights will be needed to satisfy the predicted air travel demand. If the number of seats going from airport A to airport B is known, then, by analyzing real data it can be estimated what type of aircraft will be flying from airport “A” to airport “B” v and how many flights each aircraft will have to perform in order to satisfy the forecasted demand. Besides of estimating the type of aircraft that will be used in the future, the modeled created is capable of introducing new aircraft that are not part of the network yet. Fourteen new generation aircraft from Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, and Embraer and 5 Advanced Technology Aircraft from NASA.
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Pecora, Alexandre Reggi. "O papel da oferta e da demanda por qualificação na evolução do diferencial de salários por nível educacional no Brasil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-07112012-194110/.
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Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o impacto da oferta e da demanda por trabalho qualificado sobre o diferencial de salários entre trabalhadores de elevada e baixa qualificação para o Brasil, durante o período de 1992 a 2009. Para tanto, foi utilizado um modelo microeconômico de oferta e demanda por trabalho qualificado, sendo que a qualificação é determinada pelos anos completos de escolaridade. Dessa maneira, foi constatada uma elevação do diferencial de salários entre o trabalho de elevada qualificação (com ensino superior) e baixa qualificação (com ensino médio ou ensino básico) no período de 1992 a 2001, que foi impulsionada pelo efeito da demanda por trabalho qualificado. Por sua vez, no período de 2002 a 2009, foi constatada uma pequena diminuição desse diferencial, determinada pela intensificação da oferta relativa de trabalho qualificado que ocorreu durante esse período.The objective of this dissertation is to assess the impact of supply and demand for skills in the wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers in Brazil, during 1992 and 2009. To do so, a microeconomic model of supply and demand for skill was used where a worker\'s skill is directly linked with its educational level. In this matter, a rise in the skill premium (wage differentials between college and less than college workers) was observed between 1992 and 2001, driven by the demand for skilled labor. Adversely, during 2002 and 2009, a slight decrease in the skill premium was observed which was driven by the intensification of the relative supply of skilled workers.