Academic literature on the topic 'Degree Discipline: International Business'

The purpose of Higher Education is increasingly under scrutiny as are its previous shortcomings. The last bastion of academic hegemony, the PhD, is being reconstructed, moving from a discipline focused degree intended to extend abstract, universal knowledge through the presentation of a thesis towards an emphasis upon the development of the skills of the researcher. Furthermore, the recognition that knowledge can be generated in realms other than academia has concurrently seen the emergence of Practitioner Doctorates, based upon Action Research, that are designed to develop researching professionals. The paper poses the question whether it is appropriate to extend the model developed for an International Master of Business Administration into the provision of an International Doctor of Business Administration?

This paper explores the potential benefits of allowing greater use of money-market preferred stock (MMPS) in the capital structure of banking organizations. We find that banking organizations offering MMPS tend to have lower profitability and higher credit risk than institutions offering capital-market preferred stock. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that markets will provide incentives, in the form of lower risk premiums, for higher default-risk institutions to offer MMPS rather than CMPS, because the auction process allows investors to adjust for any shifts in risk profiles by repricing the issue every 49 days. The finding that institution-specific risk influences the financing behavior of bank managers implies that banks are subject to a degree of market discipline.

The subject of this research is the analysis of the forms of implementation of interactive teaching techniques in form of game technologies on the example of a specific discipline within the framework of the Master's Degree program “Law in the Field of Regional International Relations”. The object of this article is the “business game” and “group research” as form of giving a lesson. Special attention is turned to the analysis of characteristics of interactive technologies, developed by the author from the basic definition, as well as to the characteristics of the methodology of implementation of game technologies in the context of the academic discipline “The Peculiarities of Organizational and Legal Cooperation of States in the field of Protection from Disasters within the framework of Regional mechanisms”. The main conclusions are as follows: game technologies is an essential element of teaching and should actively implemented; it is important to think through the goal and tasks of a specific game technology in order to achieve the desired result; a particular type of the implemented game technology depends on different aspects, including the level of training, discipline and topic; the use of game technologies in education allows the students to reinforce the studied material, identify and fill the gaps in knowledge, and learn how to apply the acquired knowledge. A special contribution of the author to the study of the topic is the presented methodological characteristics of the application of specific game technologies in the framework of the considered academic discipline. The novelty of this research consists in refraction of the general theoretical characteristics of interactive methods and their forms in teaching legal disciplines within the framework of Master's Degree Program.

Globalization, which is one of the major lines of development in the sphere of education, requires that a common education space be created and different systems of education be made compatible. Russian HE institutions improve academic mobility through developing double degree programmes in partnership with non-Russian HE institutions, which brings to the fore such issues as a joint curriculum development, and alignment of core curricula of partner-HE-institutions though content cross-pollination. The article deals with the approaches to double degree undergraduate programme as developed by the Russian State University of Tourism and Service (Moscow) for the Bachelor in Management programme and the International Business School (Budapest) for the BA in Business Studies. In the article, the authors identify the key components of the double degree programme as jointly developed by the Russian State University of Tourism and Service and the International Business School: the specifics of the curricula and syllabi of the two institutions, the procedure of credit transfer, the content of the teaching materials of the disciplines involved, formative, summative, and final academic assessments. The authors emphasize the difference in the workload of the disciplines on the curricula, and conclude that the curriculum currently employed by the International Business School is more application-driven, while that employed by the Russian State University of Tourism and Service is more theory-driven. The authors also identify discrepancies in the number of elective courses, with the Russian State University of Tourism and Service offering 14 elective courses in 2011, which is 9 courses more than in 2010 and 4 courses more than offered by the International Business School.

This paper discusses an approach to teaching and learning in multi-disciplinary university settings using case study based scenarios presented using films as a key teaching methodology. The production of four films (The Video store, Perception Airlines, Tranquil Whispers, and Middleton) over an eight year period was an iterative process through which the use of film-based case study scenarios was refined as a teaching tool to integrate student learning across multiple disciplines in a business school. Each of the four films was designed to enhance first year university students understanding of theories and practices used in a range of discipline areas that underpin the operations of a commercial business undertaking. The final film mainly discussed here depicts a central case study scenario, entitled Middleton featuring a cast of teaching and academic staff from the Curtin Business School (CBS) in Perth, Western Australia and Curtin Sarawak, Malaysia(Curtin University of Technology). It was produced as a core teaching approach for exploring themes as part of the delivery of several first year units within the CBS, delivered over twelve campuses in Western Australia and South East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka). Students in their first year of a commerce degree study compulsory business units that are disparate in their content and delivery. This diversity can cause some students to have difficulty with defining meaningful cohesiveness between units in their first year of study. Middleton sought to integrate the first year subjects into a film depicting a central case study of an international business operation.

Distributor sharing of strategic information with suppliers is an important but underresearched issue within the marketing discipline. The authors develop and test a conceptual framework based on exchange theory that focuses on the degree to which distributors share external and internal strategic information with associated suppliers. Relying on survey data collected from 479 distributors across three industries, the authors find that distributors share strategic information with suppliers according to factors that affect the perceived benefits, costs, and risks of such behavior. The sharing of internal strategic information has distinct determinants compared with those of external strategic information. The interrelationships between environmental uncertainty and the sharing of internal strategic information, including both main and interactive effects, are especially notable.

Business start-ups by indigenous people in wildlife conservation areas are prone to failure. Funding issues have been identified as a contributing cause of the disappointing results. A great deal has been written about capital structure both in the start-up literature and the corporate literature, but the applicability of this research to small, indigenous start-ups in and around conservation areas is lacking. Although current practice dictates a reliance on equity, we apply the relevant corporate and start-up research to the conservation area context in an attempt to better understand the capital funding question. The results argue that equity funding is appropriate in the early stages for control and liquidity reasons. However, it also shows that greater attention could be paid to some degree of early debt financing to create debt discipline and later debt funding for motivational and financial discipline purposes.

Purpose This paper aims to identify the most influential papers/authors, publication outlets and theoretical and empirical research topics of the international new venture (INV) literature. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine the intellectual structure of the INV literature using bibliometric citation and co-citation analysis. The authors focus on the 100 most cited papers in this research stream published between 1994 and 2015. In the post-hoc reading, they supplement their main bibliometric techniques with the content analysis method to shed light on some issues. Findings The authors find that the literature has grown significantly over the past two decades, increasing its relevancy in the academic discourse. The findings show the interdisciplinary nature of the INV literature, where we can find different research topics: Definition of INVs, measurements of “newness” and “degree of internationalization” and the characteristics of international entrepreneurs; time dimension in terms of speed of internationalization; international versus domestic new ventures; and the relationships between firm-specific advantages, international strategy and INV performance. Originality/value The authors identify the most influential studies and authors in the INV discipline and show its evolution from the very start to the present. They present the key topics in the literature and highlight the theoretical debates and the inconsistencies between theoretical conceptualization and measurements in the empirical work. The authors offer suggestions for promising future research directions and identify the major conceptual framework on which future research can be constructed. Overall, this study contributes to enhance the understanding of the INV phenomenon and provides useful new insights.

This case is based on real life incidents in a large international bank. There is a confrontation between an experienced officer (who does not have an MBA degree) and a newly recruited officer who is a novice to office decorum. There is a crisis because of the encounter between the strong willed experienced banker and the newly recruited one who possesses an MBA degree. There was a simmering discontent in the senior banker because she did not possess the required qualifications (degree in Business Administration) to move up the ladder. Circumstances in her younger days had forced her to take up the job in the bank but without this qualification, and the matter had rankled in her mind. Over the years, this had taken the form of a simmering dislike for everyone who possessed this degree, in spite of her best efforts to try and maintain a professional and detached relationship with the degree holders. The situation was also exacerbated by the fact that she felt that the younger employees did not treat her with the respect she deserved because of the lack of the professional degree. The case also shows the sometimes devious ways in which senior bankers who are in positions of trust can have a detrimental impact on the career of younger officers if the latter do not live up to their expectations in terms of office decorum and discipline. Experience is always a good teacher but it should be kept in mind that academic inputs brought in by employees also have their value in the success of an organization. The case does not end with a tidy conclusion and it is up to the reader to try and find possible solutions on how to resolve the issues raised.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the progress of research on business research in India and identify the key disciplines, journals, articles, authors, and institutions. Design/methodology/approach – Bibliometric analysis using data for articles published from the ISI Web of Knowledge databases consisting of the ISI Web of Science (1899-present) consisting of Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-expanded), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), and Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI); BIOSIS Previews (1969-present); CABI: CAAAB Abstracts (1910-present); MEDLINE (1950-present); Zoological Record (1864-present); and Journal Citation Reports (1999-2008). Findings – There is growing number of research literature on the theme and more so post 2002. Among the journals, the most prolific, measured by number of articles published are Management Decision, International Journal of Human Resource Management, Harvard Business Review, and Journal of International Marketing and the top ten percent of the journals are responsible for 36 percent of all publications. Similarly the top seven authors are responsible for about 15 percent of all publications and the top ten institutions account for 30 percent of all publications. This highlights that few journals, authors, and institutions are dominating the research arena of business research in India. Research limitations/implications – Despite its high degree of objectivity, bibliometric analysis has a subjective dimension (Van Raan, 2003) since the researcher had to make choices on the search terms, the time period used, etc., and while the data set is comprehensive, is it not exhaustive as many new journals are not part of SSCI (Pillania and Fetscherin, 2009; Pillania, 2011). Practical implications – The study undertakes a multi-disciplinary review of literature on business research in India. It identifies the key disciplines, journals, articles, authors, and institutions on business research in India. It is a ready reference for practitioners and future researchers on the subject. Originality/value – This study has made an attempt to study and document the literature on business research in India.

In Strategic International Human Resource Management (SIHRM), the human resource function is actively involved in the strategic activities of the firm. While the idea holds promise as a useful response to global competition, previous research has provided limited supporting empirical evidence. Specifically, few studies have sought to equate certain outcomes with the degree of SIHRM practiced across various types of international firms. By separating firms into categories such as multidomestic, global, and hybrid, and by classifying SIHRM according to the degree of integration with strategic planning, a clearer picture could emerge as to the relationship between firm and SIHRMtype. To that end, top strategic executives, such as CEOs, and top HRM executives from eighty four U.S. based firms were surveyed regarding their firm type, the degree of SIHRM practiced, and certain outcomes such as amount of expatriate training and expatriate failure. Additionally, financial results were obtained to determine performance of various firms. Results indicated that while many companies choose a highly integrated formof SIHRM, there is no significant relationship between firm type and SIHRMtype. Additionally, there was no association detected between SIHRMtype and expatriate training and expatriate failure. Finally, there was no significant difference infinancialperformance between firms with the most integrated type of SIHRMand firms with less integrated versions. Interestingly, the HRMprofessionals were more likely to equate their firms with the most integrated types of SIHRMthan were other managers. This may mean that the relationship between HRM and strategic planning is often one of perception. A model of the relationships between SIHRM, firm type, HRM activities, and outcomes is proposed, along with suggestions for future research and limitations of the study.

This thesis examines the student experience of international higher education through a case study of joint Masters degrees in business taught in two countries. The thesis explored how the ‘joint degree’ experience impacts on the way students undertake their learning and intercultural ‘negotiations’. The focus on cultural interaction, international mobility, relationality between students and the way students experience the learning environment as dimensions of their experience furthers an understanding of international higher education. The exploration of the individual students’ ‘lived reality’ demonstrates the complexity and limitations of such programmes of study as well as the importance of culture, being the fabric of meaning for individuals (Geertz, 1973) in relation to and as part of the educational experience of a joint degree. This overarching dimension of culture is given prominence in this work, not only in terms of the culture of the institutions that the students study in, but also in terms of the different national education systems, of which those institutions are part and more generally in terms of the different cultures that students have to negotiate as part of their experience. The research approach was through a case study method, relying on the use of mixed methods for data collection to provide a ‘thick’ description of the experiences of joint degrees and a triangulation of the findings for each data set. The thematic analysis of the data focussed on individuals’ construction of their reality in order to gain an understanding of that reality. The concept of ‘relationality’ is introduced to refer to the learning that occurs as a result of the recognition of the ‘other’. It denotes a learning environment where students learn with and from other students and as a result of their country mobility. As a consequence they develop their intercultural awareness. This relationality is seen as a cornerstone of the experience of joint degrees and is significant to the achievement of inter-cultural learning.

In recent years, start-ups and small to medium sized enterprises that operate globally from their inception have become commonplace. These companies often use shared leadership structures and aim to disrupt an existing market with a innovative product. This thesis intends to explore and understand the influence of shared leadership on disruptive innovation inside these international new ventures using a qualitative research approach, by gathering relevant theories of shared leadership, such as disruptive innovation and international new ventures and contrasting them in an abductive manner with the results of six interviews conducted with representatives of chosen start-ups. In these interviews the participants were questioned about shared leadership and disruptive innovation separately and try to integrate the results of shared leadership that relate to disruptive innovation in a positive or negative manner. Our findings suggest that creativity, efficiency, intrinsic motivation as well as cross-field knowledge have an incubative effect, while shared leadership itself, when managed poorly, can hamper disruptive innovation.

The textbook is the basis for a number of courses taught at the Faculty of Economics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University and at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. The textbook reflects the main requirements of international standards for both financial reporting and auditing. Meets the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation. It is intended for undergraduates and postgraduates studying the disciplines "International Audit", "Practice of external and internal audit", "International Financial Reporting Standards", "International Financial Reporting Standards: advanced course", "Consolidated reporting: practice of application", "Corporate reporting: Practice of application". It can be used when teaching the course "Audit" in the bachelor's degree, as well as by students of the postgraduate education system who apply for the auditor's qualification certificate and the accountant's qualification certificate, since it meets all the relevant requirements. It will be useful for practical workers — auditors, accountants, financial managers, business leaders, financial consultants and experts.

The textbook outlines the most significant and relevant trends taking place in the modern world economy, and examines their impact on the activities of international companies. Section I is devoted to the study of the basic concepts, sources of competitiveness and strategies for conducting international business. Section III examines the key changes taking place in the system of multilateral regulation of foreign trade and the principles of regulation of modern methods of making trade transactions. Section III highlights the specifics of the activities of international companies in the context of financial globalization, examines the basics of regulating their investment activities and sources of financing. Section IV outlines the impact of the most relevant trends on international business: digitalization and technological development, global value chains, environmental aspects and sustainable development. It is intended for students of bachelor's degree programs in the field of Economics, containing specializations in the world economy or international business.

The textbook outlines the theoretical and applied aspects of the organization and accounting features, which allow assessing the effectiveness of its management with a proper degree of completeness and reliability. The latest legislative changes have been taken into account. All the material is distributed on topics between theoretical, practical and seminar classes, as well as independent work of students in the form of discussions, presentations, situational tasks, test tasks. The use of methodological materials will allow students to rationally allocate their time while studying the discipline, get a sufficiently adequate aggregate score and rating assessment and form professional skills. Meets the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation. The textbook contains a set of developments for the preparation of bachelors in the field of accounting that meet the requirements of the educational program in the field of training 38.03.01 "Economics".

AbstractProcess mining enables organizations to uncover their actual processes, provide insights, diagnose problems, and automatically trigger corrective actions. Process mining is an emerging scientific discipline positioned at the intersection between process science and data science. The combination of process modeling and analysis with the event data present in today’s information systems provides new means to tackle compliance and performance problems. This chapter provides an overview of the field of process mining introducing the different types of process mining (e.g., process discovery and conformance checking) and the basic ingredients, i.e., process models and event data. To prepare for later chapters, event logs are introduced in detail (including pointers to standards for event data such as XES and OCEL). Moreover, a brief overview of process mining applications and software is given.

AbstractThis work is mainly aimed at evaluating the reasons behind the inefficient execution of Operational Programs (OPs) aimed at promoting research and innovation (R&I), especially in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). To achieve this goal, we employed a three-stage slack-based measure (SBM) data envelopment analysis (DEA) model combined with Stochastic Frontier analysis (SFA), which includes a multiplicity of achievement metrics and environmental factors, to evaluate 53 OPs from 19 countries. Our findings suggest that more developed regions (proxied by a higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita) do not make an efficient application of European Regional Development Funds (ERDF) aimed at fostering R&I in SMEs. Also, a greater proportion of the population with a university degree does not imply an appropriate use of ERDF devoted to R&I in SMEs. Lifelong learning is positively linked with the performance of the outcomes “Researchers Working in Improved Infrastructures” and “Enterprises Supported”. Research and development (R&D) expenditures in the public sector contribute favorably to the needed improvements in “Researchers Working in Improved Infrastructures” but have the reverse effect on the number of “Enterprises Supported” and “Enterprises Working with Research Institutions”. Furthermore, because R&D expenditures in the business sector have a positive impact on the necessary development of “Enterprises Working with Research Institutions”, these results appear to demonstrate that public R&D has a weaker influence on SME innovation than private R&D. Finally, innovative SMEs collaborating with other sources of knowledge show a positive effect on both the number of “Enterprises” and “Enterprises Working with Research Institutions” supported.

In both developed and developing countries culture, tradition and technology are key issues that affect the dialogue relating to how the three elements can be integrated in socio-economic development programs. This chapter examines the extent to culture and technology has an influence in the integration of technology in socio-economic development in Africa. It also inquires about the extent to which technology influences culture and traditions in developed countries. Furthermore, it scrutinizes the degree to which culture and traditions are receptive to the integration of technology within the socio-economic fabric of the society. The chapter concludes that school libraries should develop a curriculum that is relevant to the information needs of the community, especially those in rural areas. It is imperative to engage communities in developing programs that help to elevate communities without compromising on fundamental and internationally recognized standards. If local conditions are taken into cognizance programs to integrate culture, tradition and technology will be successful.

The chronic shortage of petroleum fuels, especially gasoline and LPG, and the prolonged and indiscriminate power outages coupled with the recent increment in fuel prices appear to be taking their toll on Ghanaian businesses; hence, some have questioned the degree of security, reliability, and long-term sustainability of the country's energy need. The chapter assesses the impact of the recent power outages on the growth and profitability of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The study employed a survey design consisting of structured questionnaires involving a total of 190 SMEs across the country. An eight item Likert scale used to assess the impact of the energy crisis on three key measures of business growth revealed a strong positive correlation between the power outages and reduced profitability but a weak correlation with business expansion by way of market development and a statistically insignificant relationship between the power outages and growth in number of employees.

According to modern international economics, and especially evolutionary economic geography, a country industry characteristics influence the structure of its international trade. Following this view, this chapter moves from the following basic research issue: if two sectors are very different according to market, economic and technological aspects, should we expect that its corresponding international trade networks are as well markedly different? Aerospace and Common Earth Materials seem quite different in those respects, and thus, they are good candidates to explore that research issue. Its comparison allowed to evidence and discuss some methodological problems in applying social network analysis, and especially in using it to compare different networks. In particular, it is underlined the difficulty to handle valued networks when value variance is very high, and to combine three groups of indicators: simple, hierarchy focused, and strictly topological. The comparative analysis employed 32 indicators either at network or sub-network level, like for core-periphery analysis, which indicate clear and marked diversity only in terms of hierarchical degree and topological aspects. A first conclusion is that the two examined trade networks are following a similar path and, excepted for few indicators, they seem to be rather similar even at a deeper structural level. Hence, one (or more) of three implications can be drawn: 1) the global value networks corresponding to the two sectors are not so markedly different; 2) they are substantially different but such a diversity does not produce a significant difference in terms of international trade networks; 3) there are some methodological problems that prevent differences to be evidence and require a more refined and modified comparison. A second conclusion is that trade patterns of both sectors are rather unstable.

Presented in this chapter is research regarding graduate programs in the relatively new academic area of Project Management. A number of professional organizations have developed around the world to address and foster this specific discipline. Several universities also recognized the fact that Project Management involves distinct skills, and that the traditional degree programs and courses in business schools and other schools do not adequately cover and integrate these skills. The particulars of the research information concern degree and certificate offerings, program and course organization, delivery mechanisms, and the organizational location of the program within the university. The author’s university is interested in developing a graduate Project Management program, and research conclusions toward this interest are presented.

There are presented the essence, basic terminology, methodology and scientific perimeter of the discipline "Ethno-cultural landscape studies". By use of a brief historic overview, there is traced the development of the cultural landscape as a scientific notion from its onset to present times. Regulatory postulates of UNESCO are taken into consideration, which explain the meaning of the terms "tradition", "intangible cultural heritage" and "cultural landscape". There are also summed up the practical and applied benefits from studying the discipline: a model for making an ethno-cultural landscape profile of the tourist site as a ground for creating unique tourist products based on traditional culture and turning folklore rituality into a generator of touristic plots.

The literature on Organizational Socialization and Onboarding has assumed traditional work relationships located on-site in the company. Due to the Corona pandemic, remote work has gained tremendous importance. However, we do not yet know how the lack of physical presence affects organizational socialization. The research interest is to assess papers analyzing virtual organizational socialization systematically. The method used was a Systematic Literature Review (SLR). A protocol was made. In this, the search parameters were recorded. Literature relevant to the research question was identified and evaluated. This was examined and put into context. Key Findings: virtual organizational socialization represents a research gap. The literature is scattered; we only found a small number of relevant articles from different disciplines focusing on impediments of virtual organizational socialization. Research on onboarding practices that help overcome obstacles imposed by a higher degree of virtual work is needed.

The recent upsurge in research activities into artificial neural networks (ANNs) has proven that neural networks have powerful pattern classification and prediction capabilities. ANNs have been successfully used for a variety of tasks in many fields of business, industry, and science. researchers and practitioners. Interest in neural networks is evident from the growth in the number of papers published in journals of diverse scientific disciplines. A search of several major databases can easily result in hundreds or even thousands of “neural networks” articles published in one year.One of the major application areas of ANNs is forecasting. There is an increasing interest in forecasting using ANNs in recent years. Forecasting has a long history, and the importance of this old subject is reflected by the diversity of its applications in different disciplines ranging from business to engineering. The ability to accurately predict the future is fundamental to many decision processes in planning, scheduling, purchasing, strategy formulation, policymaking, and supply chain operations. As such, forecasting is an area where a lot of effort has been invested in the past. Yet, it is still an important and active field of human activity at present and will continue to be in the future. Forecasting has been dominated by linear methods for many decades. Linear methods are easy to develop and implement and they are also relatively simple to understand and interpret. However, linear models have serious limitations in that they are not able to capture any nonlinear relationships in the data. The approximation of linear models to complicated nonlinear relationships is not always satisfactory. In the early 1980s, Makridakis (1982) organized a large-scale forecasting competition (often called M-competition) where a majority of commonly used linear methods were tested with more than 1,000 real-time series. The mixed results show that no single linear model is globally the best, which may be interpreted as the failure of linear modeling in accounting for a varying degree of nonlinearity that is common in real-world problems.ANNs provide a promising alternative tool for forecasters. The inherently nonlinear structure of neural networks is particularly useful for capturing the complex underlying relationship in many real-world problems. Neural networks are perhaps more versatile methods for forecasting applications in that not only can they find nonlinear structures in a problem, they can also model linear processes. For example, the capability of neural networks in modeling linear time series has been studied and confirmed by several researchers.Research efforts on neural networks as forecasting models are considerable and applications of ANNs for forecasting have been reported in many studies. Although some theoretical and empirical issues remain unsolved, the field of neural network forecasting has surely made significant progress during the last decade. It will not be surprising to see even greater advancement and success in the next decade.The purpose of this paper is to use recurrent neural networks to curve the fitting of France electricity exports annually. It is recommended that further research be undertaken in the following areas Intelligent forecasting methods are being used as an alternative to traditional forecasting methods.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.