Journal articles on the topic 'Declines'
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1
Satiiar, Zeba A. "Child Survival and Changing Fertility Patterns in Pakistan." Pakistan Development Review 31, no. 4II (December 1, 1992): 699–713. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v31i4iipp.699-713.
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Most earlier research, based on the theory of the demographic transition, focused on the association between mortality decline as a precedent to fertility decline. Whereas most of Europe experienced declines in mortality prior to fertility declines, even there the evidence is not conclusive that declines in mortality always preceded changes in fertility [Knodel and Van de Walle (1979)]. In most Asian countries which have experienced demographic transitions in the recent past mortality and fertility have declined in close succession. The position being taken here is that in certain settings substantial fertility declines, or at least an alteration in fertility patterns, may be a prerequisite to substantial declines in child mortality. The association between fertility patterns and child survival is to be investigated with a view to analysing the likely effects of changes in fertility patterns on chances of child survival.
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Guy, Martha, William D. Taylor, and John C. H. Carter. "Decline in Total Phosphorus in the Surface Waters of Lakes during Summer Stratification, and its Relationship to Size Distribution of Particles and Sedimentation." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 51, no. 6 (June 1, 1994): 1330–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f94-132.
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The decline in total phosphorus (TP) in the surface waters of 40 oligotrophy to mesotrophic lakes during stratification varied from 0 to 59.0%. Sediment traps were deployed in four of the lakes to examine the relationship between decline in TP and sedimentation. Declines in TP and sedimentation of P were similar in magnitude when summed over the stratified season, and a positive correlation between TP decline and sedimentation rate was observed. Lakes possessing larger particles exhibited larger declines in particulate phosphorus (PP) than lakes with smaller plankton. Declines in TP were not significantly related to particle size, possibly because of the influence of spring concentrations of dissolved P, which quickly declined in all lakes in which they were observed. These results support the contention that sedimentation plays a major role in the decline in TP during stratification and that sedimentation is influenced by plankton community structure.
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Innes, John L. "Forest decline." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 16, no. 1 (March 1992): 1–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339201600101.
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Forest decline is a major environmental issue today. However, there are numerous examples of past declines in the condition of individual species within forests or of the entire forests themselves. Many of these declines are natural, being brought about by a variety of factors, including stand dynamics, pests and diseases. The emphasis that has been placed on air pollution in recent declines does not appear to be justified, although air pollution has undoubtedly brought about the decline of forests at some locations. Much of the literature exaggerates the extent of the decline in forest health in Europe. The overestimation of its extent has occurred because of the assessment techniques that are used: these are unable to distinguish trees that have recently declined from those that have always been in poor condition. In addition, the techniques that are most frequently used are nonspecific and no cause can be readily attributed to the defoliation that has been observed.
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Guo, Jie, Ying Shang, Laura Fratiglioni, Kristina Johnell, Anna-Karin Welmer, Anna Marseglia, and Weili Xu. "Individual changes in anthropometric measures after age 60 years: a 15-year longitudinal population-based study." Age and Ageing 50, no. 5 (March 26, 2021): 1666–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afab045.
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Abstract Background weight loss is commonly observed with ageing. We explored the trajectory of body mass index (BMI) and two proxies of muscle mass—calf circumference (CC) and mid-arm circumference (MAC)—and identified their determinants. Methods within the SNAC-K cohort, 2,155 dementia-free participants aged ≥60 years were followed over 15 years. BMI, CC and MAC were measured at baseline and follow-ups. Baseline sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were collected through interviews. Diabetes and vascular disorders were diagnosed by physicians through clinical examination and medical records. Data were analysed using linear mixed-effect models stratified by age (younger-old [<78 years] vs. older-old [≥78 years]). Results over the 15-year follow-up, BMI remained stable among participants aged 60 years at baseline (βslope = 0.009 [95% confidence interval −0.006 to 0.024], P = 0.234) and declined significantly among those aged ≥66 years, while CC and MAC declined significantly across all age groups. The decline over 15 years in BMI, CC and MAC separately was 0.435 kg/m2, 1.110 cm and 1.455 cm in the younger-old and was 3.480 kg/m2, 3.405 cm and 3.390 cm in the older-old. In younger-old adults, higher education was associated with slower declines in all three measures, while vascular disorders and diabetes were associated with faster declines. In older-old adults, vigorous physical activity slowed declines in BMI and CC, while vascular disorders accelerated declines in BMI and MAC. Conclusions CC and MAC declined earlier and more steeply than BMI. Cardiometabolic disorders accelerated such declines, while higher education and physical activity could counteract those declines.
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Townsend, Tarlise, Magdalena Cerda, and Fumiko Chino. "What is driving declines in oncology-prescribed opioids?" Journal of Clinical Oncology 40, no. 16_suppl (June 1, 2022): 6583. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2022.40.16_suppl.6583.
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6583 Background: Patients with cancer have experienced sharp declines in opioid prescribing during the past decade, raising concerns about insufficient pain management in a population with high rates of undertreated pain. It is unclear whether these declines are driven by certain oncology subspecialties, payors, or clinical guidelines regarding opioid prescribing released in/after March 2016. Methods: We conducted time series analyses using 2006-2019 IQVIA Longitudinal Prescription Data, which represents up to 92% of all U.S. prescription fills. Using log-linear regression stratified by group, we estimated annual percent change in opioid receipt by: subspecialty (medical oncology MO, radiation oncology RO, and surgical oncology SO); payor (third-party; Medicare, including Medicare Part D; Medicaid; cash/out-of-pocket); and pre- versus post-March 2016. Opioid receipt outcomes included: monthly fills of any opioid; monthly fills of extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) opioids; and monthly number of patients receiving long-term opioid therapy (LTOT). Outcomes were per 1,000 survivors to account for temporal changes in cancer prevalence. Results: Between 2006 and 2019, 14,301,900 opioid fills were prescribed by oncologists to 3,476,354 distinct patients. Across all outcomes, MO had the highest levels of dispensing, followed by RO, then SO; for example, in 2006 MO dispensed 6.2 fills per 1,000 survivors (compared to 1.9 fills among RO, and 0.5 among SO). We observed substantial declines in all opioid outcomes. Per 1,000 survivors, there was an annual decline of: 5.7% (95CI: 5.1-6.3; total unadjusted decline 2006-2019=70.2%) in the rate of all opioid fills; 4.9% (95CI: 4.1-5.6; total unadjusted decline=66.8%) in ER/LA fills; 3.2% (95CI: 1.5-5.0; total unadjusted decline=56.2%) in LTOT fills, and 1.9% in average daily dose (95CI: 1.9-2.0; total unadjusted decline=29.8%). The annual decline in opioid fills prescribed by MO (7.1%, 95CI: 6.6-7.7) was sharper than for RO (5.9%, 95CI: 5.4-6.4) and SO (5.2%, 95CI: 4.7-5.7). Annual declines were steepest among fills paid out-of-pocket (14.5%, 95CI: 13.9-15.0), followed by those paid by Medicaid (13.1%, 95CI: 12.5-13.6), third-party payors (9.3%, 95CI: 8.7-9.9), and Medicare (2.4%, 95CI: 1.8-3.1). Declines in every outcome accelerated following clinical guidelines released in/after 2016. Conclusions: Opioids prescribed by oncologists declined dramatically across groups and outcomes. Medical oncologists were responsible for a disproportionate share of opioid fills in 2006, and for the sharpest declines. Out-of-pocket fills declined more sharply than fills covered by insurance and clinical guidelines may have contributed to accelerating declines. While de-escalation of opioid therapy may reduce risk of opioid-related harms to cancer survivors, care is needed to ensure cancer-related pain is appropriately treated.
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Kommers, Ivar, Linda Ackermans, Hilko Ardon, Wimar A. van den Brink, Wim Bouwknegt, Rutger K. Balvers, Niels van der Gaag, et al. "Between‐hospital variation in rates of complications and decline of patient performance after glioblastoma surgery in the dutch Quality Registry Neuro Surgery." Journal of Neuro-Oncology 152, no. 2 (January 28, 2021): 289–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11060-021-03697-8.
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Abstract Introduction For decisions on glioblastoma surgery, the risk of complications and decline in performance is decisive. In this study, we determine the rate of complications and performance decline after resections and biopsies in a national quality registry, their risk factors and the risk-standardized variation between institutions. Methods Data from all 3288 adults with first-time glioblastoma surgery at 13 hospitals were obtained from a prospective population-based Quality Registry Neuro Surgery in the Netherlands between 2013 and 2017. Patients were stratified by biopsies and resections. Complications were categorized as Clavien-Dindo grades II and higher. Performance decline was considered a deterioration of more than 10 Karnofsky points at 6 weeks. Risk factors were evaluated in multivariable logistic regression analysis. Patient-specific expected and observed complications and performance declines were summarized for institutions and analyzed in funnel plots. Results For 2271 resections, the overall complication rate was 20 % and 16 % declined in performance. For 1017 biopsies, the overall complication rate was 11 % and 30 % declined in performance. Patient-related characteristics were significant risk factors for complications and performance decline, i.e. higher age, lower baseline Karnofsky, higher ASA classification, and the surgical procedure. Hospital characteristics, i.e. case volume, university affiliation and biopsy percentage, were not. In three institutes the observed complication rate was significantly less than expected. In one institute significantly more performance declines were observed than expected, and in one institute significantly less. Conclusions Patient characteristics, but not case volume, were risk factors for complications and performance decline after glioblastoma surgery. After risk-standardization, hospitals varied in complications and performance declines.
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Reading, C. J., L. M. Luiselli, G. C. Akani, X. Bonnet, G. Amori, J. M. Ballouard, E. Filippi, G. Naulleau, D. Pearson, and L. Rugiero. "Are snake populations in widespread decline?" Biology Letters 6, no. 6 (June 9, 2010): 777–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2010.0373.
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Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.
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Okely, Judith A., and Ian J. Deary. "Associations Between Declining Physical and Cognitive Functions in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936." Journals of Gerontology: Series A 75, no. 7 (January 20, 2020): 1393–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glaa023.
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Abstract Background The ageing process is characterized by declines in physical and cognitive function. However, the relationship between these trajectories remains a topic of investigation. Methods Using four data waves collected triennially between ages 70 and 79, we tested for associations between multiple cognitive ability domains (verbal memory, processing speed, and visuospatial ability) and physical functions (walking speed, grip strength, and lung function). We first tested for associations between linear declines in physical and cognitive functions over the entire 9-year study period, and then, for lead-lag coupling effects between 3-year changes in cognitive and physical functions. Results Steeper linear decline in walking speed was moderately correlated with steeper linear declines in each cognitive domain. Steeper linear decline in grip strength was moderately correlated with steeper linear declines in verbal memory and processing speed. Lead-lag coupling models showed that decline in verbal memory was preceded by declines in walking speed and grip strength. By contrast, decline in grip strength was preceded by declines in processing speed and visuospatial ability, and decline in walking speed was preceded by decline in visuospatial ability. Following additional adjustment for covariates, only coupling effects from earlier decline in processing speed to later decline in grip strength remained significant (β = 0.545, p = .006). Conclusion Our findings provide further evidence of an association between cognitive and physical declines and point to the potential order in which these changes occur. Decline in processing speed in particular may serve as a unique early marker of declining upper body strength.
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Rapp, Robert P., Julie A. Ribes, Sue B. Overman, Theodore E. Darkow, and Martin E. Evans. "A Decade of Antimicrobial Susceptibilities at the University of Kentucky Hospital." Annals of Pharmacotherapy 36, no. 4 (April 2002): 596–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1345/aph.1a249.
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OBJECTIVE: To determine the antimicrobial susceptibility rates for key antimicrobial agents and selective bacterial pathogens in the decade of the 1990s. METHODS: Data from 1990 to 2000 from the University of Kentucky Clinical Microbiology Laboratory were analyzed by linear regression analysis to identify agents and pathogens that show a decline in susceptibility. For selected pathogens and antimicrobial agents, predictions were made for further declines in susceptibility for 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: Significant declines in susceptibility to selected antimicrobial agents were found for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Enterobacter cloacae, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermidis, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Further declines were predicted for 2005 and 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Examination of susceptibility rates over time in a university hospital medical center provides useful data for future planning. In our institution, antimicrobial susceptibility rates have significantly declined during the 1990s for certain antimicrobial agents and bacterial pathogens. We are attempting to change our antimicrobial use patterns through formulary manipulation and clinician education, which may retard or prevent such declines in the future.
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Radford, B. J., C. M. Thornton, B. A. Cowie, and M. L. Stephens. "The Brigalow Catchment Study: III. Productivity changes on brigalow land cleared for long-term cropping and for grazing." Soil Research 45, no. 7 (2007): 512. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/sr07062.
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Productivity of grain crops and grazed pastures inevitably declines without soil nutrient replacement and may eventually make these enterprises unprofitable. We monitored these declines in north-eastern Australia during 23 years after clearing 2 of 3 adjacent brigalow catchments, in order to define the productivity levels of developed brigalow land over time. One catchment (11.7 ha) was used for grain production and another (12.7 ha) for beef production from a sown buffel grass pasture. There was no upward or downward trend in annual rainfall amounts throughout the study period. In the cropped catchment, grain yield from 14 winter crops without added nutrients declined significantly in 20 years from 2.9 to 1.1 t/ha.year on the upper-slope clay soil (92 kg/ha.year) and from 2.4 to 0.6 t/ha.year on the Sodosol (88 kg/ha.year). Crop production per year declined by 20% between 2 successive 10-year periods. Wheat grain protein content also declined with time, falling below the critical value for adequate soil N supply (11.5%) 12 years after clearing on the Sodosol and 16 years after clearing on the clay soil. Such declines in grain quantity and quality without applied fertiliser reduce profitability. The initial pasture dry matter on offer of 8 t/ha had halved 3 years after clearing, and a decline in cattle liveweight gain of 4 kg/ha.year was observed over an 8-year period with constant stocking of 0.59 head/ha. Due to fluctuating stocking rate levels of 0.3–0.7 head/ha over the trial period, liveweight productivity trends are attributed to the multiple effects of stocking rate changes and fertility decline. The amount of nitrogen exported from the cleared catchments was 36.1 kg/ha.year in grain but only 1.6 kg/ha.year in cattle (as liveweight gain). Total soil N at 0–0.3 m declined by 84 kg/ha.year under cropping but there was no significant decline under grazing. The soil nutrients removed during grain and beef production need to be replaced in order to avert productivity decline post-clearing.
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Davis, James, Eunjung Lim, Deborah A. Taira, and John Chen. "Relation of incident chronic disease with changes in muscle function, mobility, and self-reported health: Results from the Health and Retirement Study." PLOS Global Public Health 2, no. 9 (September 8, 2022): e0000283. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000283.
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The primary objective was to learn the extent that muscle function, mobility, and self-reported health decline following incident diabetes, stroke, lung problem, and heart problems. A secondary objective was to measure subsequent recovery following the incident events. A longitudinal panel study of the natural history of four major chronic diseases using the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative sample of adults over age 50 years. People first interviewed from 1998–2004 were followed across five biannual exams. The study included 5,665 participants who reported not having diabetes, stroke, lung problems, and heart problems at their baseline interview. Their mean age was 57.3 years (SD = 6.0). They were followed for an average of 4.3 biannual interviews. Declines and subsequent recovery in self-reported health, muscle function, and mobility were examined graphically and modeled using negative binomial regression. The study also measured the incidence rates and prevalence of single and multiple chronic diseases across the follow-up years.Self-reported health and muscle function declined significantly following incident stroke, heart problems, lung problems, and multiple chronic diseases. Mobility declined significantly except following incident diabetes. Self-reported health improved following incident multiple chronic conditions, but recovery was limited compared to initial decline. Population prevalence after five follow-up waves reached 9.0% for diabetes, 8.1% for heart problems, 3.4% for lung disease, 2.1% for stroke, and 5.2% for multiple chronic diseases. Significant declines in self-reported health, muscle function, and mobility occurred within two years of chronic disease incidence with only limited subsequent recovery. Incurring a second chronic disease further increased the declines. Early intervention following incident chronic disease seems warranted to prevent declines in strength, mobility, and perceptions of health.
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Crawford, Andrew D., Kathryn J. Steadman, Julie A. Plummer, Anne Cochrane, and Robin J. Probert. "Analysis of seed-bank data confirms suitability of international seed-storage standards for the Australian flora." Australian Journal of Botany 55, no. 1 (2007): 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/bt06038.
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The suitability of applying international standards for long-term seed storage to the Australian flora was examined by reviewing seed-storage data from the Western Australian Threatened Flora Seed Centre. The 375 collections examined represented 176 taxa from 44 genera and 16 families. A high proportion of collections, representative of some of the most common genera in Australia, maintained viability in the short (<5 years) and medium (5–12 years) term. Declines in germination were evident for a small number of collections, representing 10 taxa, stored for 5–12 years. However, many of the declines were collection-specific and other collections of the same taxon did not decline. Five taxa showing germination declines were represented by a single collection so it was not possible to determine whether the germination decline was directly related to the taxa, storage conditions or to other factors. Only the closely related Stylidium coroniforme and S. amabile exhibited germination declines in all collections, but cut tests of seeds remaining from germination testing indicated that viability of the collections had not declined, just the proportion to germinate; for these species a change in germination conditions is a more likely explanation for the reduction in germination. The results illustrate the successful application of these seed-storage standards to threatened flora in Western Australia and highlight their suitability for the Australian flora.
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Stevenson, Betsey, and Justin Wolfers. "The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 1, no. 2 (July 1, 2009): 190–225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.1.2.190.
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The lives of women in the United States have improved over the past 35 years by many objective measures, yet we show that measures of subjective well-being indicate that women's happiness has declined both absolutely and relative to men. This decline in relative well-being is found across various datasets, measures of subjective well-being, demographic groups, and industrialized countries. Relative declines in female happiness have eroded a gender gap in happiness in which women in the 1970s reported higher subjective well-being than did men. These declines have continued and a new gender gap is emerging—one with higher subjective well-being for men. (JEL I31, J16, J28)
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Dietzel, Andreas, Michael Bode, Sean R. Connolly, and Terry P. Hughes. "Long-term shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the Great Barrier Reef." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 287, no. 1936 (October 14, 2020): 20201432. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1432.
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The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations.
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Lawes, Michael J., Brett P. Murphy, Alaric Fisher, John C. Z. Woinarski, Andrew C. Edwards, and Jeremy Russell-Smith. "Small mammals decline with increasing fire extent in northern Australia: evidence from long-term monitoring in Kakadu National Park." International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, no. 5 (2015): 712. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf14163.
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Small mammal (<2 kg) numbers have declined dramatically in northern Australia in recent decades. Fire regimes, characterised by frequent, extensive, late-season wildfires, are implicated in this decline. Here, we compare the effect of fire extent, in conjunction with fire frequency, season and spatial heterogeneity (patchiness) of the burnt area, on mammal declines in Kakadu National Park over a recent decadal period. Fire extent – an index incorporating fire size and fire frequency – was the best predictor of mammal declines, and was superior to the proportion of the surrounding area burnt and fire patchiness. Point-based fire frequency, a commonly used index for characterising fire effects, was a weak predictor of declines. Small-scale burns affected small mammals least of all. Crucially, the most important aspects of fire regimes that are associated with declines are spatial ones; extensive fires (at scales larger than the home ranges of small mammals) are the most detrimental, indicating that small mammals may not easily escape the effects of large and less patchy fires. Notwithstanding considerable management effort, the current fire regime in this large conservation reserve is detrimental to the native mammal fauna, and more targeted management is required to reduce fire size.
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Montero-Odasso, Manuel, Mark Speechley, Susan W. Muir-Hunter, Frederico Pieruccini-Faria, Yanina Sarquis-Adamson, Vladimir Hachinski, Louis Bherer, et al. "Dual decline in gait speed and cognition is associated with future dementia: evidence for a phenotype." Age and Ageing 49, no. 6 (June 18, 2020): 995–1002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afaa106.
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Abstract Background concurrent declines in gait speed and cognition have been associated with future dementia. However, the clinical profile of ‘dual decliners’, those with concomitant decline in both gait speed and cognition, has not been yet described. We aimed to describe the phenotype and the risk for incident dementia of those who present with dual decline in comparison with non-dual decliners. Methods prospective cohort of community-dwelling older adults free of dementia at baseline. We evaluated participants’ gait speed, cognition, medical status, functionality, incidence of adverse events and dementia, biannually over 7 years. Gait speed was assessed with a 6-m electronic walkway and global cognition using the MoCA test. We compared characteristics between dual decliners and non-dual decliners using t-test, chi-square and hierarchical regression models. We estimated incident dementia using Cox models. Results among 144 participants (mean age 74.23 ± 6.72 years, 54% women), 17% progressed to dementia. Dual decliners had a 3-fold risk (HR: 3.12, 95%CI: 1.23–7.93, P = 0.017) of progression to dementia compared with non-dual decliners. Dual decliners were significantly older with a higher prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia (P = 0.002). Hierarchical regression models show that age and sex alone explained 3% of the variation in the dual decliners group. Adding hypertension and dyslipidemia increased the explained variation by 8 and 10%, respectively. The risk of becoming a dual decliner was 4-fold higher if hypertension was present. Conclusion older adults with a concurrent decline in gait speed and cognition represent a group at the highest risk of progression to dementia. Older adults with dual decline have a distinct phenotype with a higher prevalence of hypertension, a treatable condition.
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Stieger, Mirjam, and Margie Lachman. "Cognitive Activity as a Moderator of Educational Attainment and Work Status in Cognitive Aging." Innovation in Aging 4, Supplement_1 (December 1, 2020): 290–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igaa057.931.
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Abstract Cross-sectional findings showed that education differences in memory performance were moderated by frequent cognitive activity (Lachman et al., 2010). The present study examined whether frequent cognitive activity could compensate for lower education when focusing on change in cognitive performance across nine years. The study also explored whether cognitive activity can slow down declines in retired adults as previous research suggested that retiring is associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline (e.g., Wickrama et al., 2013). Longitudinal data from the MIDUS study included N = 3,325 middle-aged and older adults. Outcome variables were two factors of cognitive performance: Episodic Memory (EM) and Executive Functioning (EF). Independent variables were years of education, work status (working vs. retired), and frequency of cognitive activity. The results suggest that cognitive activity moderated the effect of educational attainment on change in EM. Individuals with both higher education and cognitive activity showed the smallest declines in EM. Individuals with lower educational attainment but high cognitive activity had less decline in EM compared to their low education counterparts. Those who increased their cognitive activity over time showed less decline in EF. In terms of work status, working adults had less decline in EM and EF compared to retired adults and retired adults who did not maintain their cognitive activity declined more in EF. The results emphasize the importance of frequent engagement in cognitive activity across the lifespan, which can attenuate cognitive declines especially among those who have lower education or have retired.
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Wayne, A. F., M. A. Maxwell, C. G. Ward, C. V. Vellios, B. G. Ward, G. L. Liddelow, I. Wilson, J. C. Wayne, and M. R. Williams. "Importance of getting the numbers right: quantifying the rapid and substantial decline of an abundant marsupial, Bettongia penicillata." Wildlife Research 40, no. 3 (2013): 169. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wr12115.
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Context A reliable measure of population size is fundamental to ecology and conservation but is often difficult to obtain. The woylie, Bettongia penicillata, provides an example where ‘getting the numbers right’ has important implications in verifying and quantifying the recent unexpected, rapid and substantial declines across much of its range. Initial estimates prompted a conservation-status upgrade for the species to Endangered by the Australian Government. The present paper constitutes the foundational paper addressing the first steps of a decline diagnosis framework intended to identify the causes of the recent declines. Aims To verify whether the declines in woylie trap-capture rates are representative of population change; better quantify the size of the largest woylie populations; and review what is understood about the ecology of the woylie and identify key knowledge gaps that may be relevant to identifying the causes of the recent declines. Methods Monitoring data from live-cage trapping (transects and grids), sandpads, woylie diggings and nest-density surveys and spotlighting were collated. Population measures derived from trapping data included capture rates, number of individuals, abundance estimates based on capture–mark–recapture modelling and density using spatially explicit capture–recapture models (SECR). Key results The declines in woylie trap-capture rates were verified as real population declines and corresponded closely with other measures of abundance derived from the same trapping data as well as with independent measures. A 95% decline occurred in the largest extant woylie populations (in the Upper Warren region, Western Australia) between 2002 and 2008. At a species level, woylies declined ~90% (1999–2006), from a peak of ~200 000 individuals in 1999. Conclusions An accurate formal conservation status is an important factor in promoting the conservation of a species. It is recommended that the woylie be considered for Critically Endangered status under the Australian EPBC Act. Implications Adequate and effective monitoring of species is critical to detecting and quantifying population changes in a timely manner. Having an accurate measure of population size can have a significant impact on the effectiveness of conservation and management efforts.
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Cunningham, Calum X., Christopher N. Johnson, Leon A. Barmuta, Tracey Hollings, Eric J. Woehler, and Menna E. Jones. "Top carnivore decline has cascading effects on scavengers and carrion persistence." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 285, no. 1892 (November 28, 2018): 20181582. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.1582.
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Top carnivores have suffered widespread global declines, with well-documented effects on mesopredators and herbivores. We know less about how carnivores affect ecosystems through scavenging. Tasmania's top carnivore, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) , has suffered severe disease-induced population declines, providing a natural experiment on the role of scavenging in structuring communities. Using remote cameras and experimentally placed carcasses, we show that mesopredators consume more carrion in areas where devils have declined. Carcass consumption by the two native mesopredators was best predicted by competition for carrion, whereas consumption by the invasive mesopredator, the feral cat ( Felis catus ), was better predicted by the landscape-level abundance of devils, suggesting a relaxed landscape of fear where devils are suppressed. Reduced discovery of carcasses by devils was balanced by the increased discovery by mesopredators. Nonetheless, carcasses persisted approximately 2.6-fold longer where devils have declined, highlighting their importance for rapid carrion removal. The major beneficiary of increased carrion availability was the forest raven ( Corvus tasmanicus ). Population trends of ravens increased 2.2-fold from 1998 to 2017, the period of devil decline, but this increase occurred Tasmania-wide, making the cause unclear. This case study provides a little-studied potential mechanism for mesopredator release, with broad relevance to the vast areas of the world that have suffered carnivore declines.
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Boertje, R. D., and R. O. Stephenson. "Effects of ungulate availability on wolf reproductive potential in Alaska." Canadian Journal of Zoology 70, no. 12 (December 1, 1992): 2441–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/z92-328.
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We compared wolf (Canis lupus) reproductive data for March and April, when ungulate biomass per wolf was high, moderate, and low. The percentage of reproductively active adult females was significantly lower (66% compared with ≥96%, P < 0.001) when ungulate biomass per wolf was low versus moderate or high. Reproductively inactive adult females had significantly less subcutaneous fat (P < 0.01) than reproductively active females when ungulate biomass per wolf was relatively abundant. Average litter size, estimated by counting blastocysts or fetuses, declined significantly (P < 0.001), from 6.9 to 4.6, as ungulate biomass per wolf declined. We conclude that wolf productivity declines as prey availability per wolf declines. However, only when ungulate biomass per wolf declined below levels previously reported in the literature did we observe significant declines in reproductive potential. Ungulate biomass per wolf was low because of large, rapid declines in ungulates and lesser declines in wolves. We recognize that functional relationships, e.g., prey vulnerability and feeding dominance, can influence wolf productivity independently of ungulate biomass per wolf.
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Hallmann, Caspar A., Axel Ssymank, Martin Sorg, Hans de Kroon, and Eelke Jongejans. "Insect biomass decline scaled to species diversity: General patterns derived from a hoverfly community." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 2 (January 11, 2021): e2002554117. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002554117.
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Reports of declines in biomass of flying insects have alarmed the world in recent years. However, how biomass declines reflect biodiversity loss is still an open question. Here, we analyze the abundance (19,604 individuals) of 162 hoverfly species (Diptera: Syrphidae), at six locations in German nature reserves in 1989 and 2014, and generalize the results with a model varying decline rates of common vs. rare species. We show isometric decline rates between total insect biomass and total hoverfly abundance and a scale-dependent decline in hoverfly species richness, ranging between −23% over the season to −82% at the daily level. We constructed a theoretical null model to explore how strong declines in total abundance translate to changing rank-abundance curves, species persistence, and diversity measures. Observed persistence rates were disproportionately lower than expected for species of intermediate abundance, while the rarest species showed decline and appearance rates consistent with random expectation. Our results suggest that large insect biomass declines are predictive of insect diversity declines. Under current threats, even the more common species are in peril, calling for a reevaluation of hazards and conservation strategies that traditionally target already rare and endangered species only.
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Harley, C. Knick. "Ocean Freight Rates and Productivity, 1740–1913: The Primacy of Mechanical Invention Reaffirmed." Journal of Economic History 48, no. 4 (December 1988): 851–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022050700006641.
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This article demonstrates that new industrial technology caused a revolutionary decline in nineteenth-century freight rates. This overturns Douglass North's well-known conclusion that organizational improvements were the dominant source of savings. While North's American freight rate series declines prior to the use of the metal steamship, British rates decline only modestly prior to 1850 and then rapidly as metal steamships come into use. Cotton freights dominate North's index and declined when cotton became more tightly packed for shipment. Metal ships and steam propulsion, however, caused a general decline in freight rates after 1850.
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Zatoński, Mateusz, Aleksandra Herbeć, Witold Zatoński, Kinga Janik-Koncewicz, Pete Driezen, Tibor Demjén, Esteve Fernández, et al. "Cessation behaviours among smokers of menthol and flavoured cigarettes following the implementation of the EU Tobacco Products Directive: findings from the EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe Surveys." European Journal of Public Health 30, Supplement_3 (July 1, 2020): iii34—iii37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckaa050.
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Abstract The European Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) introduced a ban on characterizing flavours in cigarettes (2016), including menthol (2020). The longitudinal data analysis of the EUREST-PLUS International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project Europe Surveys (n = 16 534; Wave 1 in 2016 and Wave 2 in 2018) found significant but small declines in the weighted prevalence of menthol (by 0.94%; P = 0.041) and other flavoured cigarette use (by 1.32%; P < 0.001) following the 2016 TPD. The declines tended to be driven primarily by the menthol and flavoured cigarette (MFC) smokers switching to unflavoured tobacco. Cigarette consumption declined between waves, but there were no statistically significant difference in decline between MFC and unflavoured tobacco smokers on smoking and cessation behaviours between the waves.
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Aiken, M. R. E., A. Duarte, R. S. Luna, D. M. Wolcott, and F. W. Weckerly. "Daytime declines in rumen–reticulum fill of male white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from south Texas." Canadian Journal of Zoology 92, no. 7 (July 2014): 637–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjz-2013-0232.
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Understanding rumen–reticulum fill dynamics gives us insight into how environmental conditions influence animal behaviors that affect when animals access forage. We examined whether there were daytime declines in rumen–reticulum fill in response to high ambient temperatures in free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780)) on a diurnal scale. We hypothesized that to reduce heat-producing digestive processes in the heat of the day, rumen–reticulum fill and digestion in the rumen–reticulum would decline throughout the day. We collected the rumina and reticula of adult males and females across 30 h in two autumns in south Texas, USA. We also measured dry digesta mass, organ mass, and crude protein and acid detergent fiber concentrations of rumen–reticulum contents. In males, dry digesta mass declined throughout the day and crude protein concentrations were greatest when wet digesta and organ mass were the largest. Additionally, declines in dry digesta and wet digesta mass coincided with declines in crude protein concentrations and organ mass. Females did not display declines in rumen–reticulum fill (wet mass). Females were probably less vulnerable to heat than males because of their smaller body size. Male white-tailed deer foraged primarily during the cooler nights to reduce foraging and digestion during the heat of the day.
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Lange, P., S. Groth, J. Mortensen, M. Appleyard, J. Nyboe, P. Schnohr, and G. Jensen. "Diabetes mellitus and ventilatory capacity: a five year follow-up study." European Respiratory Journal 3, no. 3 (March 1, 1990): 288–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/09031936.93.03030288.
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During a five year observation period, declines of forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) were investigated in 200 subjects with diabetes mellitus (DM), 126 subjects who developed DM during that period and 9,051 nondiabetic subjects. After statistical adjustment for age, sex, height, and tobacco consumption we found that the subjects who developed DM during the observation period had the steepest declines of ventilatory function. Their annual declines of FVC (and FEV1) were on average 29 ml (and 25 ml) greater than the declines observed among the nondiabetic subjects. The subjects who had DM during the whole observation period experienced a decline of ventilatory function which was not significantly greater than the decline among the nondiabetic subjects. Our results suggest that DM, at its onset, is associated with a significantly accelerated decline of ventilatory function. If DM has been present for some years, its impact on the decline of ventilatory function is small.
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Williams, Nigel. "Common declines." Current Biology 17, no. 18 (September 2007): R782. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2007.08.054.
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Donato, Anthony J., Kathleen Tench, Deborah H. Glueck, Douglas R. Seals, Iratxe Eskurza, and Hirofumi Tanaka. "Declines in physiological functional capacity with age: a longitudinal study in peak swimming performance." Journal of Applied Physiology 94, no. 2 (February 1, 2003): 764–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1152/japplphysiol.00438.2002.
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We followed up swimming performance times of 321 women and 319 men who participated in the US Masters Swimming Championships over a 12-yr period. All swimmers placed in the top 10 in their age group over 3 yr (mean = 5 yr). A random coefficients model for repeated measures was used to derive a line of best fit from a group of regression lines for each subject. Both 50- and 1,500-m swimming performance declined modestly until ∼70 yr of age, where a more rapid decline was observed in both men and women. Compared with 1,500-m swimming, the 50-m freestyle declined more modestly and slowly with age. The rate and magnitude of declines in swimming performance with age were greater in women than in men in 50-m freestyle; such sex-related differences were not observed in 1,500-m freestyle. Overall, the variability along a population regression line increased markedly with advancing age. The present longitudinal findings indicate that 1) swimming performance declines progressively until age 70, where the decrease becomes quadratic; 2) the rates of the decline in swimming performance with age are greater in a long-duration than in a short-duration event, suggesting a relatively smaller loss of anaerobic muscular power with age compared with cardiovascular endurance; 3) the age-related rates of decline are greater in women than in men only in a short-duration event; and 4) the variability of the age-related decline in performance increases markedly with advancing age.
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Gunn, Anne, Frank L. Miller, and John Nishi. "Status of endangered and threatened caribou on Canada's arctic islands." Rangifer 20, no. 5 (April 1, 2000): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.7557/2.20.5.1623.
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Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) on the Canadian Arctic Islands occur as several populations which are nationally classified as either endangered or threatened. On the western High Arctic (Queen Elizabeth) Islands, Peary caribou (R. t. pearyi) declined to an estimated 1100 caribou in 1997. This is the lowest recorded abundance since the first aerial survey in 1961 when a high of ca. 24 363 caribou was estimated on those islands. Peary caribou abundance on the eastern Queen Elizabeth Islands is almost unknown. On the southern Arctic Islands, three caribou populations declined by 95-98% between 1973 and 1994 but our information is unclear about the numerical trends for the two other populations. Diagnosis of factors driving the declines is complicated by incomplete information but also because the agents driving the declines vary among the Arctic's different climatic regions. The available evidence indicates that severe winters caused Peary caribou die-offs on the western Queen Elizabeth Islands. On Banks Island, harvesting together with unfavourable snow/ice conditions in some years accelerated the decline. On northwestern Victoria Island, harvesting apparently explains the decline. The role of wolf predation is unknown on Banks and notthwest Victoria islands, although wolf sightings increased during the catibou declines. Reasons for the virtual disappearance of arctic-island caribou on Prince of Wales and Somerset islands are uncertain. Recovery actions have started with Inuit and Inuvialuit reducing their harvesting but it is too soon to evaluate the effect of those changes. Recovery of Peary caribou on the western Queen Elizabeth Islands is uncertain if the current trends toward warmer temperatures and higher snowfall persist.
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Markham, Jessica L., Troy Richardson, Ronald J. Teufel, Adam L. Hersh, Adrienne DePorre, Eric W. Fleegler, Ryan M. Antiel, et al. "Impact of COVID-19 on Admissions and Outcomes for Children With Complex Chronic Conditions." Hospital Pediatrics 12, no. 4 (March 8, 2022): 337–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/hpeds.2021-006334.
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BACKGROUND Although pediatric health care use declined during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the impact on children with complex chronic conditions (CCCs) has not been well reported. OBJECTIVE To describe the impact of the pandemic on inpatient use and outcomes for children with CCCs. METHODS This multicenter cross-sectional study used data from the Pediatric Health Information System. We examined trends in admissions between January 2020 through March 2021, comparing them to the same timeframe in the previous 3 years (pre-COVID-19). We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the association of the COVID-19 period and outcomes for children with CCCs presenting between March 16, 2020 to March 15, 2021 (COVID-19 period) to the same timeframe in the previous 3 years (pre-COVID-19). RESULTS Children with CCCs experienced a 19.5% overall decline in admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Declines began in the second week of March of 2020, reaching a nadir in early April 2020. Changes in admissions varied over time and by admission indication. Children with CCCs hospitalized for pneumonia and bronchiolitis experienced overall declines in admissions of 49.7% to 57.7%, whereas children with CCCs hospitalized for diabetes experienced overall increases in admissions of 21.2%. Total and index length of stay, costs, and ICU use, although statistically higher during the COVID-19 period, were similar overall to the pre-COVID-19 period. CONCLUSIONS Total admissions for children with CCCs declined nearly 20% during the pandemic. Among prevalent conditions, the greatest declines were observed for children with CCCs hospitalized with respiratory illnesses. Despite declines in admissions, overall hospital-level outcomes remained similar.
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Juan-Jordá, M. J., I. Mosqueira, J. Freire, and N. K. Dulvy. "Population declines of tuna and relatives depend on their speed of life." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 282, no. 1811 (July 22, 2015): 20150322. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0322.
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Larger-bodied species in a wide range of taxonomic groups including mammals, fishes and birds tend to decline more steeply and are at greater risk of extinction. Yet, the diversity in life histories is governed not only by body size, but also by time-related traits. A key question is whether this size-dependency of vulnerability also holds, not just locally, but globally across a wider range of environments. We test the relative importance of size- and time-related life-history traits and fishing mortality in determining population declines and current exploitation status in tunas and their relatives. We use high-quality datasets of half a century of population trajectories combined with population-level fishing mortalities and life-history traits. Time-related traits (e.g. growth rate), rather than size-related traits (e.g. maximum size), better explain the extent and rate of declines and current exploitation status across tuna assemblages, after controlling for fishing mortality. Consequently, there is strong geographical patterning in population declines, such that populations with slower life histories (found at higher cooler latitudes) have declined most and more steeply and have a higher probability of being overfished than populations with faster life histories (found at tropical latitudes). Hence, the strong, temperature-driven, latitudinal gradients in life-history traits may underlie the global patterning of population declines, fisheries collapses and local extinctions.
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Dubno, Judy R. "Speech Recognition Across the Life Span: Longitudinal Changes From Middle-Age to Older Adults." American Journal of Audiology 24, no. 2 (June 2015): 84–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1044/2015_aja-14-0052.
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Purpose The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of evidence of age-related declines in speech recognition in middle age to older adulthood; to review contributions of pure-tone thresholds, age, and gender; and to report preliminary results from a longitudinal study. Method Pure-tone thresholds and word recognition in quiet and babble are being measured in a large sample of adults yearly or every 2 to 3 years. Analyses included >16,000 audiograms and speech recognition scores from >1,200 adults whose ages ranged from the 40s to the 90s. A multivariable generalized linear repeated mixed model assessed changes in thresholds and speech recognition over time. Results Word recognition in quiet declined significantly while controlling for threshold increases, and declines appeared to accelerate near ages 65 to 70 years. Scores for men were poorer than those for women even after controlling for gender differences in thresholds, but rates of decline did not differ by gender. Smaller declines in key word recognition in babble were observed, and declines appeared to accelerate near ages 75 to 80 years. Conclusions Additional evidence is needed from large-scale longitudinal cohort studies to determine rates of change of auditory function across the life span. These studies can identify associations with modifiable risk factors and potential mechanisms to reduce, to prevent, or to delay the onset of age-related hearing loss.
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Casterline, John B., and Laila O. El-Zeini. "Multiple Perspectives on Recent Trends in Unwanted Fertility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries." Demography 59, no. 1 (December 14, 2021): 371–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9644472.
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Abstract The last four decades have witnessed large declines in fertility globally. This study uses data from 78 low- and middle-income countries to examine concurrent trends in unwanted fertility. Three measures of unwanted fertility are contrasted: the conventional unwanted total fertility rate, a proposed conditional unwanted fertility rate, and the percentage of births unwanted. Incidence of unwanted births and prevalence of exposure to unwanted births are both derived from answers to questions on prospective fertility preference, recognized as the most valid and reliable survey measure of preferences. Country-level trends are modeled both historically and with the decline in total fertility, with a focus on regional differentials. Results show that unwanted fertility rates—especially the conditional unwanted fertility rate—have declined substantially in recent decades. By contrast, the percentage of births unwanted has declined less, remaining stable or even increasing: from a birth cohort perspective, declines in unwanted fertility have been far more modest than the increased parental success in avoiding unwanted births. The regional patterns suggest that sub-Saharan Africa has several similarities with other major regions but also some peculiar features, including a recent stall in the decline of unwanted fertility that persists after controlling for the stage of fertility transition.
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Close, Allison, Brittani Seynnaeve, Kimberly Miller, and Louis Rapkin. "Sex-specific mortality trends in adolescents and young adults with cancer from 2007 to 2016." Journal of Clinical Oncology 37, no. 15_suppl (May 20, 2019): 1570. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2019.37.15_suppl.1570.
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1570 Background: Adolescents and young adults (AYA) aged 15-39 years make up approximately 70,000 new oncology cases in the USA. Historically, mortality from cancer has smaller incremental improvements in AYA patients when compared to children and older adults, and not much is known about current sex-specific trends. We assessed overall and sex specific AYA mortality for the last 10 years (2007-2016). Methods: Trends in age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 (1972-2016) were obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in relative survival were analyzed using NCI’s JPSurv webtool and mortality AAPCs were quantified using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results: Overall declines in mortality are similar in AYA men and women from 1972-2016, with 54% and 51% decline, respectively. In the most recent 10 years of data (2007 to 2016), combined sex AYA mortality AAPC’s declined by about 0.8% per year, slightly slower than declines in children <15 years (1.3% per year) and adults ages >40 years (1.5% per year). Among AYA males there have been 10 year AAPC mortality declines in leukemia (-1.8%), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) (-5.1%), Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (-4.1%) and melanoma of the skin (-3.4%). For AYA females, 10 year AAPC mortality declines occurred in leukemia (-1.9%), ovarian (-1.5%), HL (-10%), NHL (-4.9%) and melanoma (-2.8%). These declines have been offset by stable or increasing mortality rates for several common AYA cancers, including colorectal cancer (CRC) (1.1%) and bone and joint cancer (0.6%) in AYA males. AYA females have experienced mortality increases for CRC (0.6%), bone and joint cancer (0.5%) and uterine corpus cancer (2.8%). Conclusions: In general, mortality rates for both AYA men and women have declined over the past 10 years due to decreased mortality in hematologic malignancies and melanoma. Despite overall improvement, tumor categories in both AYA males and female such as CRC, bone and joint cancer, and uterine corpus cancers show increasing mortality. These diseases require specific investigations by both pediatric and adult researchers.
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Gargano, Julia, Rayleen Lewis, Hillary Hunt, Nancy McClung, Nancy M. Bennett, Marie Griffin, Linda Niccolai, et al. "962. Trends in Cervical Pre-cancers by Race and Ethnicity During the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Era, HPV Vaccine Impact Monitoring Project (HPV-IMPACT), United States, 2008–2016." Open Forum Infectious Diseases 6, Supplement_2 (October 2019): S29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofz359.064.
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Abstract Background Since human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction in the United States in 2006, cervical pre-cancer incidence has declined in young women, but pre-cancer trends have not been reported by race/ethnicity. We evaluated trends in cervical pre-cancers from 2008 to 2016 in non-Hispanic (NH) white, NH black, NH Asian, and Hispanic women identified through active population-based surveillance in the 5-site Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Impact Monitoring Project (HPV-IMPACT). Methods We analyzed data on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 2–3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) cases aged 20–39 years. Annual CIN2+ rates per 100,000 women were calculated stratified by race/ethnicity in 5-year age groups, using multiple imputation to account for 10% missing race/ethnicity data. Rates were also calculated using estimated numbers screened for cervical cancer to control for known declines in screening. Trends, evaluated using JoinPoint software, are presented as average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results A total of 18,222 CIN2+ cases (62% NH white, 16% NH black, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian) were reported from 2008 to 2016. CIN2+ rates among 20–24 year-olds declined significantly in all groups: NH white, AAPC: −14.2 (95% CI: −16.3, −12.1); NH black, AAPC: −15.5 (−19.5, −11.4); Asian, AAPC: −14.8 (−20.5, −8.8); Hispanic, AAPC: −14.3 (−17.9, −10.5). In 25–29 year olds, a significant decline was observed for NH whites only (AAPC: −2.4, [−4.0, −0.8]). No declines were seen in 30–34 or 35–39 year olds. Among screened 20–24 year-olds, significant but smaller declines were observed (AAPC: −9.8 to −8.4); no declines were observed in screened 25–29 year olds or older groups. Conclusion In this evaluation of CIN2+ trends by race/ethnicity during the HPV vaccine era, the significant declines in 20–24 year olds across all groups, including among screened women, is consistent with equitable vaccine impact on CIN2+. Disclosures All Authors: No reported Disclosures.
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Yabroff, Robin Robin, Xiao-Cheng Wu, Serban Negoita, Jennifer Stevens, Linda Coyle, Jingxuan Zhao, Brent Mumphrey, Ahmedin Jemal, and Kevin C. Ward. "Association of the COVID-19 pandemic with patterns of cancer services." Journal of Clinical Oncology 39, no. 15_suppl (May 20, 2021): 1514. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2021.39.15_suppl.1514.
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1514 Background: The COVID-19 pandemic led to delays in medical care in the United States. We examined changes in patterns of cancer diagnosis and surgical treatment in 2020 using real-time electronic pathology report data from population-based SEER cancer registries in Georgia and Louisiana. Methods: Bi-weekly numbers, distributions, and patterns of pathology reports were compared between January 1st and December 31st in 2020 and the same period in 2019 by age group and cancer site. Results: During 2020, there were 29,905 fewer pathology reports than in 2019, representing a 10.2% decline. Absolute declines were greatest among adults aged ≥50 years (N=23,065); percentage declines were greatest among children and young adults ≤18 years (38.3%). By cancer site, percentage declines were greatest for lung cancer (17.4%), followed by colorectal (12.0%), breast (9.0%) and prostate (5.8%) cancers. Biweekly reports were statistically significantly lower in 2020 than in 2019 from late March through the end of December in most biweekly periods. The nadir was the month of April 2020 – the number of reports was at least 40% lower than in April 2019. The number of reports in 2020 compared with 2019 also declined sharply in early November (26.8%) and late December (32.0%). Numbers of reports in 2020 never consistently exceeded those in 2019 after the first decline. Patterns were similar by cancer site, with variation in magnitude and duration of declines. Conclusions: Significant declines in cancer pathology reports from population-based registries during 2020 suggest substantial delays in screening, evaluation of signs and symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment services for cancers with effective screening tests as well as in cancer sites and age groups without effective screening tests as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ongoing evaluation will be critical for informing public health efforts to minimize any lasting adverse effects of the pandemic on cancer screening, diagnosis, treatment, and survival.[Table: see text]
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Armstrong, Andrew J., Fred Saad, Neal D. Shore, Karim Fizazi, De Phung, Carl Frank Dmuchowski, Mohammad Hirmand, David Forer, Howard I. Scher, and Johann S. De Bono. "Surrogacy analysis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) decline for improved overall survival (OS) with enzalutamide (ENZ) in AFFIRM." Journal of Clinical Oncology 34, no. 2_suppl (January 10, 2016): 266. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2016.34.2_suppl.266.
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266 Background: ENZ significantly increased OS for men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) vs. placebo and significantly decreased PSA levels. However, the prognostic significance and role of PSA falls as a surrogate for OS are not established. Methods: Men in the AFFIRM trial were grouped by maximal unconfirmed PSA decline during the 1st 90 days of treatment in a post-hoc analysis. Each PSA decline criterion was assessed for surrogacy for OS by the proportion of treatment effect (PTE)-explained and Prentice criteria. We also assessed the association of PSA decline with OS, progression-free survival (PFS), and pain response. Results: ENZ improved OS (hazard ratio 0.63, p < 0.001) and was associated with higher rates of PSA declines when compared to placebo (odds ratio > 19.0, p < 0.001). Greater declines in PSA were associated with longer OS, PSA PFS, radiographic PFS, and higher pain response when compared with no PSA decline or PSA increase (table). All decline measures from baseline were highly prognostic for OS and several ( > 0%, ≥ 30%, ≥ 50% declines) explained a proportion of the treatment effect (PTE 1.07–1.29, 95% CI lower bounds > 0.63), in which treatment was no longer significant after adjustment for the decline measures (p > 0.20). Full surrogacy was not demonstrated. Conclusions: In AFFIRM, > 0, ≥30%, and ≥50% PSA declines within 90 days of treatment fulfilled Prentice surrogacy criteria 1–3. Prentice 4, equivalency of survival adjusting for PSA decline outcomes, could not be demonstrated. PSA declines are associated with longer PFS and improved pain response. External prospective validation is needed. Clinical trial information: NCT00974311. [Table: see text]
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McCallum, Malcolm L. "Amphibian Decline or Extinction? Current Declines Dwarf Background Extinction Rate." Journal of Herpetology 41, no. 3 (September 2007): 483–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1670/0022-1511(2007)41[483:adoecd]2.0.co;2.
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PAUDEL, KHADANANDA, TATSUYA AMANO, RAJU ACHARYA, ANAND CHAUDHARY, HEM S. BARAL, KRISHNA P. BHUSAL, ISHWARI P. CHAUDHARY, RHYS E. GREEN, RICHARD J. CUTHBERT, and TOBY H. GALLIGAN. "Population trends in Himalayan Griffon in Upper Mustang, Nepal, before and after the ban on diclofenac." Bird Conservation International 26, no. 3 (September 21, 2015): 286–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0959270915000192.
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SummaryThe Upper Mustang region of Nepal holds important breeding populations of Himalayan Griffon Gyps himalayensis. Despite this species being considered ‘Least Concern’ on the IUCN Red List, the population in Upper Mustang had declined substantially in the early to mid-2000s. During that period, the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac was commonly used to treat illness and injury in domesticated ungulates throughout Nepal. The timing and magnitude of declines in Himalayan Griffon in Upper Mustang resemble the declines in resident populations of the ‘Critically Endangered’ White-rumped Vulture Gyps bengalensis and Slender-billed Vulture Gyps tenuirostris in Nepal, both of which are also known to be highly sensitive to diclofenac. Since 2006, the veterinary use of diclofenac has been banned in Nepal to prevent further vulture declines. In this paper, we analyse the population trend in Himalayan Griffon in Upper Mustang between 2002 and 2014 and show a partial recovery. We conclude that the decline is now occurring at a slower rate than previously observed and immigration from areas where diclofenac was either not or rarely used the probable explanation for the recovery observed.
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Rowe, Sherrylynn, Jeffrey A. Hutchings, Dorte Bekkevold, and Ana Rakitin. "Depensation, probability of fertilization, and the mating system of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.)." ICES Journal of Marine Science 61, no. 7 (January 1, 2004): 1144–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.07.007.
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Abstract Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been severely overexploited and are currently at historic population lows, having declined 90% in the North Sea and 99% off northeast Newfoundland in recent decades. Slow rates of recovery and continuing declines may be attributable to depensation, defined as a reduction in per capita growth rate concomitant with reduced population size. Several potential causes of depensation relate to low mating success and consequent reduced production of offspring. We explore the empirical basis of one of these in Atlantic cod using egg fertilization and male abundance data obtained from 21 experimental populations generated by three independent research programmes. We find support for the hypotheses that (a) fertilization rate declines with abundance and (b) variance in fertilization rate increases as population size declines. The former identifies one potential mechanism underlying depensation in Atlantic cod. The latter has negative genetic consequences for effective population size (Ne), resulting in a decline in the ratio of Ne to census population size (Ne/Nc) with declining abundance. Our results may have general implications for the conservation biology of broadcast-spawning marine fish, particularly those with mating systems similar to that of Atlantic cod.
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Bloom, Bernard S., and Urs Gessner. "Long-Term Technology Assessment: Mortality, Hospitalization, and Work Loss Due to Peptic Ulcer and Gastritis/Duodenitis in the Federal Republic of Germany." International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 5, no. 2 (April 1989): 215–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266462300006449.
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Once the effects of short-term data analysis of new medical technology appear clear, additional or long-term analyses are infrequently performed on subsequent information. This often leads to incomplete understanding of the technology's full medical, social, and economic effects.Available data for the Federal Republic of Germany on mortality, hospitalization, and work loss due to gastric and duodenal ulcer and gastritis/duodenitis allowed long-term analysis of direct and indirect impacts on the population from 1975 through 1984. Mortality rates declined for all ages (ρ ≤ 0.01) except for those age 75 and older, and nearly equally for all study diagnoses. Hospital discharge rates for all diagnoses rose slowly and steadily, while those for persons diagnosed with gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer or gastritis/duodenitis declined sharply (ρ = 0.04). Declines of hospital discharges were greater for men than for women. The ongoing decline in rates of mortality and hospital discharges increased after 1977. Rates of work loss per 10,000 population-at-risk for study diagnoses were either stable or increasing until 1979, after which there was a marked decline (ρ = 0.03 for gastric ulcer, ρ = 0.02 for duodenal ulcer, ρ = 0.008 for gastritis/duodenitis). Work loss due to study diseases declined as a percentage of work loss for all diseases during the later study years. Only by examining many years' data could the accelerating declines be discerned, not only for mortality and hospitalizations, which have been examined before, but also for work loss, an infrequently analyzed effect of disease.
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Ryan, Alan S., David Rush, Fritz W. Krieger, and Gregory E. Lewandowski. "Recent Declines in Breast-Feeding in the United States, 1984 Through 1989." Pediatrics 88, no. 4 (October 1, 1991): 719–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.88.4.719.
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Ongoing surveys performed by Ross Laboratories demonstrate recent declines both in the initiation of breast-feeding and continued breast-feeding at 6 months of age. Comparing rates in 1984 and 1989, the initiation of breast-feeding declined approximately 13% (from 59.7% to 52.2%), and there was a 24% decline in the rate of breast-feeding at 6 months of age (from 23.8% to 18.1%). The decline in breast-feeding was seen across all groups studied but was greater in some groups than in others. Logistic regression analysis indicates that white ethnicity, some college education, increased maternal age, and having an infant of normal birth weight were all positively associated with the likelihood of both initiating breast-feeding and continuing to breast-feed to at least 6 months of age. Women who were black and who were younger, no more than high school educated, enrolled in the Women, Infants and Children supplemental food program, working outside the home, not living in the western states, and who had an infant of low birth weight were less likely either to initiate breast-feeding or to be nursing when their children were 6 months of age. The factors influencing the decline in breast-feeding were not uniform. There were fewer sociodemograpahic factors associated with the decline in the initiation of breast-feeding than in the decline in prolonged breast-feeding. While the disparity between older and younger mothers in initiating breast-feeding increased, there was an offsetting trend as the disparity associated with parity decreased. The only other significantly changed relationship for initiation of breast-feeding was that the disparity associated with higher income increased significantly: the decline in the rates of breast-feeding among the less affluent was greater than among the more affluent. Many more sociodemographic factors were significantly associated with declines in breast-feeding at 6 months of age. The disparity between those mothers not employed and those employed increased (from an odds ratio of 1.65 in 1984 to 2.43 in 1989). The disparities associated with age and parity both increased over time: the rate of breast-feeding declined more steeply among younger and primiparous mothers than among older and multiparous mothers. Similarly, the declines were greater among those enrolled in the Women, Infants and Children program (compared with those not enrolled), those with less than a college education (compared with some college education), and those not residing in the western region of the United States (compared with those residing in the West). Educational efforts to promote breast-feeding are needed for all pregnant women and should be particularly directed toward the groups who have experienced the most rapid recent decline in the rates of breast-feeding.
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Krapu, Gary L., Glen A. Sargeant, and Alison E. H. Perkins. "Does Increasing Daylength Control Seasonal Changes in Clutch Sizes of Northern Pintails (Anas Acuta)?" Auk 119, no. 2 (April 1, 2002): 498–506. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/auk/119.2.498.
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AbstractWe evaluated spatiotemporal variation in clutch sizes of Northern Pintails (pintails; Anas acuta) nesting in California (1985 to 1996), North Dakota (1982 to 1985), Saskatchewan (1982 to 1985) and Alaska (1991 to 1993) to determine whether seasonal declines in clutch size varied in ways that were consistent with a controlling influence of increasing day length. Pintails began nesting in mid-March in California, mid-April in North Dakota and Saskatchewan, and mid-May in Alaska. Observed durations of nesting were 70 ± 2.6 days (SE) in California, 60 ± 6.3 days in North Dakota, 66 ± 1.3 days in Saskatchewan, and 42 ± 0.7 days in Alaska. Annual differences were the principal source of variation in mean clutch sizes (σ̂Y2 = 0.15, SE = 0.049), which varied little among study locations (σ̂A2 = 0.002, SE = 0.013). Predicted rates of seasonal decline in clutch sizes increased with latitude early in the nesting season, but declined as the nesting season progressed, except in California. Rates of decline in clutch sizes thus were not directly related to rates of increase in day length. Predicted declines in numbers of eggs per clutch over the nesting season were similar for all four locations (range, 3.05–3.12) despite wide variation in durations of nesting. Evidence suggests that reduced nutrient availability during nesting contributes to a higher rate of decline in clutch sizes in Alaska than in temperate regions. Pintails that nest early lay large initial clutches, but thereafter clutch sizes decline rapidly and breeding terminates early. This reproductive strategy is adaptive because young that hatch earliest exhibit the highest survival rates; however, the conversion of grassland to cropland on the primary prairie breeding grounds has reduced hatching rates of clutches laid early in the nesting season. Under these conditions, the limited capacity to renest in late spring on their prairie breeding grounds probably has contributed to Pintail population declines.
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James, William H. "Recent secular trends in dizygotic twinning rates in Europe." Journal of Biosocial Science 18, no. 4 (October 1986): 497–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021932000016515.
Full textAbstract:
SummaryIn all European countries for which data exist, there was a maternal-age-specific decline in dizygotic twinning rates during the 1960s. For most of these countries, this decline continued through the 1970s, but in a few it apparently ceased. The causes of the declines and of their abatement are unknown. However, there were declines in sperm quality during the 1960s and 1970s in some parts of the world, including parts of Europe, and it is speculated here that this decline in sperm quality may be related to the decline in dizygotic twinning.
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Lozano, Stephen J., Jill V. Scharold, and Thomas F. Nalepa. "Recent declines in benthic macroinvertebrate densities in Lake Ontario." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58, no. 3 (March 1, 2001): 518–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f01-002.
Full textAbstract:
Surveys of benthic macroinvertebrates conducted in Lake Ontario during 1994 and 1997 revealed recent declines in populations of three major taxonomic groups: Oligochaeta, Sphaeriidae, and Diporeia spp. (Amphipoda), with the most drastic reductions occurring in the latter. Results from sediment measurements were used to classify deepwater sediments into three habitat zones. Densities of all three taxa declined in the shallowest (1288 m) of the sediment zones between 1994 and 1997; the greatest changes in density were observed for Diporeia, which declined from 3011 to 145 individuals·m2, and for total benthic macroinvertebrates, which declined from 5831 to 1376 individuals· m2. Mean densities of Dreissena spp. in 1997 were highest in the shallowest zone, and the areas of greatest densities corresponded to areas of largest reductions in Diporeia populations. We believe that dreissenids are competing with Diporeia by intercepting the supply of fresh algae essential for Diporeia survival. A decline in macroinvertebrate densities, especially populations of an important food item such as Diporeia, in Lake Ontario sediments at depths of 1288 m may have a detrimental impact on the benthic food web.
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Stone, Brandon L., Madison Beneda-Bender, Duncan L. McCollum, Jongjoo Sun, Joseph H. Shelley, John D. Ashley, Eugenia Fuenzalida, and J. Mikhail Kellawan. "Understanding cognitive performance during exercise in Reserve Officers’ Training Corps: establishing the executive function-exercise intensity relationship." Journal of Applied Physiology 129, no. 4 (October 1, 2020): 846–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1152/japplphysiol.00483.2020.
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The executive functioning aspect of cognition was evaluated during graded exercise in Reserve Officers’ Training Corps cadets. Executive function declined at exercise intensities of ≥80% of heart rate reserve. The decline in executive function was coupled with declines in the oxygenation of the prefrontal cortex, the brain region responsible for executive functioning. These data define the executive function-exercise intensity relationship and provide evidence supporting the reticular activation hypofrontality theory as a model of cognitive change.
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Figer, BH, SJ Thaker, M. Boob, NJ Gogtay, and UM Thatte. "An evaluation of reporting of consent declines in three high impact factor journals." Clinical Ethics 13, no. 4 (September 25, 2018): 189–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1477750918802428.
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Background Informed consent confers upon participants the right to decline or accept participation in a study in equal measure. Consent declines can be used as a potential metric to assess the adequacy of the informed consent process. Limited literature is available on the reporting of consent declines in Clinical Research. We evaluated randomized controlled trials published in three high-impact factor journals for consent declines (four-year period) to assess the extent of exertion of autonomy by research participants. Methods CONSORT flow charts in RCTs published in New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), The Lancet and Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) between 2012 and 2015 were evaluated. The total and per journal proportion of RCTs reporting consent declines was calculated. Percentage of consent declines was also compared based on number of centers (single centric vs. multicentric) and type of setting (developed vs. developing). Between-groups analysis was done using Chi Square, Chi Square for trend and a Crude odds ratio [95% C.I] (cOR) were calculated. Results Only 3.7% (1103/29,825) of the published articles were RCTs. Of the 1103 RCTs, only 532 (48.2%) reported consent declines. JAMA had the highest RCTs reporting consent declines (171/267.64%), the Lancet [129,150/781,924, 16.5%] had the most participants declining consent. Difference was significant using Chi square for linear trend [ p < 0.00001]. Consent decline rate was higher in developed countries relative to developing countries [cOR(95% C.I): 2.27(2.23,2.32), p < 0.000001] and in single centric versus multicentric studies [cOR (95% C.I): 3.63(3.56,3.71), p < 0.0000001]. Conclusion Both authors and journal editors need to ensure better reporting of consent declines.
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Williamson, Hannah C., and Justin A. Lavner. "Trajectories of Marital Satisfaction in Diverse Newlywed Couples." Social Psychological and Personality Science 11, no. 5 (August 29, 2019): 597–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1948550619865056.
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Couples’ marital satisfaction is thought to decline over the newlywed years, but recent research indicates that the majority of spouses have high, stable trajectories during this period, and significant declines occur only among initially dissatisfied spouses. These findings are drawn from predominantly White, middle-class samples, however, which may overestimate marital stability compared to samples with higher levels of sociodemographic risk. Accordingly, the current study tested the generalizability of newlyweds’ marital stability by examining satisfaction trajectories among 431 ethnically diverse newlywed couples living in low-income neighborhoods. Consistent with previous work, most spouses had high levels of satisfaction, substantial declines were limited to spouses with lower initial levels of satisfaction, and divorce significantly differed between groups. Wives with higher levels of sociodemographic risk started marriage less satisfied and declined more in satisfaction. Overall, these findings reveal risky and resilient relationships among disadvantaged couples, with considerable stability during the newlywed years.
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Hall, Robert E. "The Long Slump." American Economic Review 101, no. 2 (April 1, 2011): 431–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.2.431.
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In a market-clearing economy, declines in demand from one sector do not cause large declines in aggregate output because other sectors expand. The key price mediating the response is the interest rate. A decline in the rate stimulates all categories of spending. But in a low-inflation economy, the room for a decline in the rate is small, because of the notorious lower limit of zero on the nominal interest rate. In the Great Depression, substantial deflation caused the real interest rate to reach high levels. In the Great Slump that began at the end of 2007, low inflation resulted in an only slightly negative real rate when full employment called for a much lower real rate because of declines in demand. Fortunately, the inflation rate hardly responded to conditions in product and labor markets, else deflation might have occurred, with an even higher real interest rate. I concentrate on three closely related sources of declines in demand: the buildup of excess stocks of housing and consumer durables, the corresponding expansion of consumer debt that financed the buildup, and financial frictions that resulted from the decline in real-estate prices. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E32, E65)
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Radkar, Anjali. "Indian Fertility Transition." Journal of Health Management 22, no. 3 (September 2020): 413–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0972063420937925.
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Fighting to curb the population growth, India’s reduction in fertility rate (58%) in 35 years is evident; total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 5.2 to 2.2 meaning three children less. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015–2016, TFR has dropped to 2.18 from 3.39 in 1992 (NFHS-1). Proximate determinants indicate that over a period, index of marriage and contraception contribute lesser towards fertility, and postpartum amenorrhoea shows marginal variation. When total fecundity remains constant, share of abortion does not remain one but contribute towards fertility reduction. Benefits of fertility decline include lowering population growth and its positive effects on overall development. As fertility declines, maternal mortality declines; maternal mortality ratio (MRR) declined by 67 per cent in past 13 years. Sharp decline in fertility gives rise to demographic dividend. India is passing through it. Fertility drop is not without consequences. Fertility decline makes pregnancies precious; giving rise to upswing to C-section deliveries and hysterectomy even for a minor cause or is it a response to cancer threat? Preference for sons is universal here. With fertility reduction, it surfaces with unruly consequences of missing girls. Drop in fertility has changed the shape of the population pyramid. Share of elderly is reaching 10 per cent, of which share of women and more so share of oldest women is more. In the absence of social security and low rates of workforce participation, women are getting more dependent on the required care, increasing their vulnerability. Fertility reduction has achieved with moderate level of development. Now the right response to effects of fertility decline is the biggest social challenge.
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Obbard, M. E., M. R. L. Cattet, E. J. Howe, K. R. Middel, E. J. Newton, G. B. Kolenosky, K. F. Abraham, and C. J. Greenwood. "Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice." Arctic Science 2, no. 1 (March 2016): 15–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/as-2015-0027.
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Sea ice is declining over much of the Arctic. In Hudson Bay the ice melts completely each summer, and advances in break-up have resulted in longer ice-free seasons. Consequently, earlier break-up is implicated in declines in body condition, survival, and abundance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774) in the Western Hudson Bay (WH) subpopulation. We hypothesised that similar patterns would be evident in the neighbouring Southern Hudson Bay (SH) subpopulation. We examined trends 1980–2012 in break-up and freeze-up dates within the entire SH management unit and within smaller coastal break-up and freeze-up zones. We examined trends in body condition for 900 bears captured during 1984–1986, 2000–2005, and 2007–2009 and hypothesised that body condition would be correlated with duration of sea ice. The ice-free season in SH increased by about 30 days from 1980 to 2012. Body condition declined in all age and sex classes, but the decline was less for cubs than for other social classes. If trends towards a longer ice-free season continue in the future, further declines in body condition and survival rates are likely, and ultimately declines in abundance will occur in the SH subpopulation.