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Aldhous, Peter. "Birth rate shows signs of decline." Nature 352, no. 6336 (August 1991): 557. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/352557b0.
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Dufek, J. "The development of the marriage rate, the divorce rate, the birth rate and the death rate." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 53, No. 1 (January 7, 2008): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/853-agricecon.
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The article aims to analyze the development of the basic characteristics of the demographic dynamics in the CR in urban areas divided according to size in 1993−2004 and to express the changes in the development of the natural increase. Urban areas in the CR were divided into 3 groups according to their size (size-related groups): urban areas of up to 2 000 inhabitants − a country type, urban areas with 2 000 to 10 000 inhabitants − a transition type, urban areas with more than 10 000 inhabitants − towns. In 2004, there were 26% of inhabitants living in the country group, 20% in the transition group and 54% in towns. There was a decline in marriage rate in all the groups; in the country, with its higher level, the decline was more moderate. The divorce rate shows a moderate increase except 1999, when it dramatically fell thanks to the legislation. The divorce rate was the highest in towns and the lowest in the country. The birth rate continued its sharp decline in urban areas of all sizes during the first four years of the researched period, then it levelled off, and it has even been slightly rising in the last years. It was considerably lower in bigger towns than in the other two groups, which had practically an identical development. There was a kind of balance at the end of the period. The death rate was generally going down; it was the highest in the country areas, however, it was approximating the values in the other two groups. The dramatic fall of the natural increase levelled off and it also showed a moderate rise. Trends are expressed with polynomial functions. The article presents the characteristics development in graphs and the reasons for changes are being commented upon.
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Guyer, Bernard, Donna M. Strobino, Stephanie J. Ventura, and Gopal K. Singh. "Annual Summary of Vital Statistics-1994." Pediatrics 96, no. 6 (December 1, 1995): 1029–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.96.6.1029.
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Recent trends in the vital statistics of the United States continued in 1994, including decreases in the number of births, the birth rate, the age-adjusted death rate, and the infant mortality rate. Life expectancy increased slightly to 75.7 years. Only marriages reversed the recent trend with a slight increase in 1994. An estimated 3 979 000 infants were born during 1994, a decline of <1% from 1993. The birth rate was 15.3 live births per 1000 population, a 1% decline. These decreasing rates reflect a decline in the fertility rate to 67.1 live births per 1000 women aged 15 to 44 years. Final figures for 1993 indicate that fertility rates declined for all racial groups, by 1% for white women (to 65.4) and 3% for black women (to 80.5). The fertility rate for Hispanic women (106.9) was 84% higher than that for non-Hispanic white women and 31% higher than for non-Hispanic black women. Between 1991 and 1993, birth rates for teenage mothers remained virtually unchanged, and abortion rates have steadily declined, suggesting that teenage pregnancy rates are levelling off. The number and proportion of births to women over age 30, however, continued to rise. The rate of births to all unmarried women (45.3 per 1000 in 1993) has been stable for 3 years. Prenatal care utilization improved in 1993; 79% of women initiated care in the first trimester and <5% had delayed care or no care. Improvements occurred among nearly all racial and ethnic groups. Reported smoking during pregnancy declined to 15.8% in 1993 from 16.9% in 1992. The proportion of babies delivered by cesarean section was 21.8% in 1993, a 2% decrease from 1992. Between 1992 and 1993, the rate of low birth weight (LBW) rose slightly to 7.2%, while very low birth weight (VLBW) remained stable at 1.3%. Most of the increase in LBW occurred among white infants and reflected, primarily, an increase in the proportion of multiple births. The black/white ratio in LBW continued to increase to more than two-fold with the largest difference recorded among term and postterm infants. Age-adjusted death rates in 1994 were lower for heart disease, malignant neoplasm, pulmonary diseases, other accidents, and homicides. The age-adjusted death rate for human immunodeficiency virus disease Continued to rise to 15.1 in 1994. The infant mortality rate declined 4% in 1994, to 7.9 per 1000, the lowest rate ever recorded in the United States. The decline was primarily in neonatal mortality. Among the states, Massachusetts (5.4) and Washington (5.7) had the lowest rates. The overall national trend appears to be related to declines in respiratory distress and sudden infant death syndrome deaths. Over the next 25 years, the number of children in the United States is expected to rise by only 10 million, and the composition of the child population will become more ethnically and radally diverse.
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Robey, Bryant. "The Birth Rate Decline in Developing Countries." Outlook on Agriculture 22, no. 4 (December 1993): 221–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/003072709302200403.
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Birth rates are falling in much of the developing world. In the mid-1960s women in Asia, Africa and Latin America gave birth to an average of six children. Today, the average is about four—a drop of one-third. In some regions and countries the average is substantially lower, approaching levels in the developed world. This remarkable decline in birth rates is no cause for complacency about rapid population growth, however, as the Look at it this way article in this issue, by Catley-Carlson, rightly observes. Average family size is still well above the 2.1 ‘replacement level ’—the number of children per couple that over the long run leads to zero population growth because each couple has only enough children to replace itself in the population. Thus world population, already about 5.5 billion, continues to grow. Even as the average number of children born per woman falls, population will continue to grow rapidly for many years because the number of women of childbearing age is rising as a result of previous high birth rates—a phenomenon that demographers call ‘population momentum ’. That the world's population is growing larger in a hurry is not news. But it is something of a surprise to learn that birth rates have declined so rapidly in so many countries, including some that experts considered too poor and traditional for this to occur. In fact, birth rates have fallen much faster than experts expected. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and similar family planning surveys conducted in more than 40 developing countries since 1985 tell the story of this striking decline.
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Casterline, John B., and Laila O. El-Zeini. "Multiple Perspectives on Recent Trends in Unwanted Fertility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries." Demography 59, no. 1 (December 14, 2021): 371–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9644472.
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Abstract The last four decades have witnessed large declines in fertility globally. This study uses data from 78 low- and middle-income countries to examine concurrent trends in unwanted fertility. Three measures of unwanted fertility are contrasted: the conventional unwanted total fertility rate, a proposed conditional unwanted fertility rate, and the percentage of births unwanted. Incidence of unwanted births and prevalence of exposure to unwanted births are both derived from answers to questions on prospective fertility preference, recognized as the most valid and reliable survey measure of preferences. Country-level trends are modeled both historically and with the decline in total fertility, with a focus on regional differentials. Results show that unwanted fertility rates—especially the conditional unwanted fertility rate—have declined substantially in recent decades. By contrast, the percentage of births unwanted has declined less, remaining stable or even increasing: from a birth cohort perspective, declines in unwanted fertility have been far more modest than the increased parental success in avoiding unwanted births. The regional patterns suggest that sub-Saharan Africa has several similarities with other major regions but also some peculiar features, including a recent stall in the decline of unwanted fertility that persists after controlling for the stage of fertility transition.
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Wegman, Myron E. "Annual Summary of Vital Statistics—1992." Pediatrics 92, no. 6 (December 1, 1993): 743–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.92.6.743.
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A new low in the infant mortality rate was reached in 1992, at 848.7 deaths per 100 000 live births, a decline of 5% from 894.4 in 1991. Birth, death, and marriage rates were also lower, but the divorce rate inched up to 4.8 per 1000 population, the same level as in 1988. The age-adjusted death rate was 504.9 per 100 000 population, the lowest in US history. Natural increase in the population, excess of births over deaths, decreased from 1 941 389 to 1 907 000, from 7.7 to 7.5 per 1000 population. Births outside hospital were fewer, both in numbers and in proportion to all births. Birth rates increased at both ends of the age range but declined in the principal childbearing years. Births to unmarried mothers increased again, comprising more than one fifth of white births and two thirds of black births. A higher proportion of newborns weighed less than 2500 g than in 1989. Life expectancy at birth increased again, to 75.7 years overall, paralleled in both sexes and white and black races. The age-adjusted death rate for cardiovascular diseases declined, but malignancies of the respiratory system increased again, to almost six times what it was in 1940. Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, despite slight improvement since 1991, caused death more than eight times as often as in 1940. Black and white infant mortality rates both showed a decline, greater in the white neonatal component; the black/white discrepancy widened slightly. Infant mortality in those of Hispanic origin was slightly higher than non-Hispanic whites, but the National Center for Health Statistics warns that Hispanic rates may be understated. There was little change in causes of infant mortality, or in black to white ratios for the several causes. On the world scene, most industrialized countries showed declines in infant mortality matching the US. In 1991, 21 countries, 15 in Europe, 3 in Asia, 2 in Oceania, and 1 in North America, had infant mortality rates less than the US. The decline in most other countries has been more rapid than in the US.
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Wen, Qi, Giulia M. Muraca, Joseph Ting, Sarah Coad, Kenneth I. Lim, and Sarka Lisonkova. "Temporal trends in severe maternal and neonatal trauma during childbirth: a population-based observational study." BMJ Open 8, no. 3 (March 2018): e020578. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020578.
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ObjectiveInstrumental vaginal delivery is associated with birth trauma to infant and obstetric trauma to mother. As caesarean delivery rates increased during the past decades, the rate of instrumental vaginal delivery declined. We examined concomitant temporal changes in the rates of severe birth trauma and maternal obstetric trauma.DesignA retrospective observational study.Settings and participantsAll hospital singleton live births in Washington State, USA, 2004–2013, excluding breech delivery. Severe birth trauma (brain, nerve injury, fractures and other severe birth trauma) and obstetric trauma (third/fourth degree perineal lacerations, cervical/high vaginal lacerations) were identified from hospitalisation data. Pregnancy and delivery characteristics were obtained from birth certificates. Temporal trends were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test. Logistic regression was used to obtain adjusted ORs (AORs) and 95% CI.ResultsOverall, 732 818 live births were included. The rate of severe birth trauma declined from 5.3 in 2004 to 4.5 per 1000 live births in 2013 (P<0.001). The decline was observed only in spontaneous vaginal delivery, the rates of fractures and other severe birth trauma declined by 5% and 4% per year, respectively (AOR: 0.95, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.97 and AOR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99; respectively). The rate of third/fourth degree lacerations declined in spontaneous vaginal delivery from 3.5% to 2.3% (AOR: 0.95; 95% CI 0.94 to 0.95) and in vacuum delivery from 17.3% to 14.5% (AOR: 0.97, 95% CI 0.96 to 0.98). Among women with forceps delivery, these rates declined from 29.8% to 23.4% (AOR: 0.98, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.00).ConclusionWhile the rates of fractures and other birth trauma declined among infants delivered by spontaneous vaginal delivery, the rate of birth trauma remained unchanged in instrumental vaginal delivery and caesarean delivery. Among mothers, the rates of severe perineal lacerations declined, except for women with forceps delivery.
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Antsaklis, Aris. "Maternal and Perinatal Mortality in the 21st Century." Donald School Journal of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology 10, no. 2 (2016): 143–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5005/jp-journals-10009-1457.
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ABSTRACT The maternal mortality ratio measures how safe it is to become pregnant and give birth in a geographic area or a population. The total number of maternal deaths observed annually fell from 526,000 in 1980 to 358,000 in 2008, a 34% decline over this period. Similarly, the global MMR declined from 422 in 1980 to 320 in 1990 and was 250 per 100,000 live births in 2008, a decline of 34% over the entire period and an average annual decline of 2.3%. More specifically, in 1990 around 58% of maternal deaths worldwide occurred in Asia and 36% in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, in 2008, 57% of global maternal deaths occurred in sub-Saharan Africa and 39% in Asia. In Europe, the main causes of death from any known direct obstetric complication remains bleeding (13%), thromboembolic events (10.1%), complicationassociated birth, hypertensive disease of pregnancy (9.2%), and amniotic fluid embolism (10.6%). Preterm birth is the most common cause of perinatal mortality (PNM) causing almost 30% of neonatal deaths, while birth defects cause about 21% of neonatal deaths. The PNM rate refers to the number of perinatal deaths per 1,000 total births. Perinatal mortality rate may be below 10 for certain developed countries and more than 10 times higher in developing countries. Perinatal health in Europe has improved dramatically in recent decades. In 1975, neonatal mortality ranged from 7 to 27 per 1,000 live births in the countries that now make up the EU. By 2005, it had declined to 8 per 1,000 live births. We need to bring together data from civil registration, medical birth registers, hospital discharge systems in order to have European Surveys which present exciting research possibilities. How to cite this article Antsaklis A. Maternal and Perinatal Mortality in the 21st Century. Donald School J Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2016;10(2):143-146.
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Kearney, Melissa S., Phillip B. Levine, and Luke Pardue. "The Puzzle of Falling US Birth Rates since the Great Recession." Journal of Economic Perspectives 36, no. 1 (February 1, 2022): 151–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.151.
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This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including teens, Hispanic women, and college-educated white women. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.
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Yan, J. S., and C. S. Yin. "No decline in preterm birth rate over three decades." International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics 34, no. 1 (January 1991): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0020-7292(91)90530-i.
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Ogino, Miho. "Japanese women and the decline of the birth rate." Reproductive Health Matters 1, no. 1 (January 1993): 78–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0968-8080(93)90064-z.
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Nasser Hadal Alotaibi, Abdulaziz I. Alzarea, Ahmed Hassan, Mohammed Gamal, Shakeel Iqubal S M, Amera Saeed, Dalal Abdulaziz, and Abrar Nawawi. "Investigation of Regional Perinatal Mortality Rate and Causes in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia." International Journal of Research in Pharmaceutical Sciences 11, SPL4 (December 21, 2020): 1244–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.26452/ijrps.v11ispl4.4285.
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The primary purpose of this study is to recognize the perinatal mortality rate and the vital causes of perinatal mortality to ascertain the significant maternal elements for a safe birth. A retrospective study was carried out in three large tertiary hospitals in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in the period from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2015. All perinatal deaths happening during that time were analyzed. During the six-year review period, a total of 280 infant deaths were recorded with a perinatal mortality rate (PMR) of 6.6 per 1000 births. The principal causes of death among the deceased were low birth weight (LBW) (87%), lethal congenital malformation (CM) (4%), sepsis (3%), and respiratory arrest (3%). The PMR was high in 2010 at 6.8, while it declined to 6.4 at the end of the period studied. The average PMR recorded in this study was 6.6 per 1000 births. This study showed that low birth weight is the main reason for prenatal mortality, although the PMR did decline by the end of the period. A decrease in the perinatal death rate is viable when all females start to attend preconception counselling and are present at antenatal health centres.
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Every, KR. "Evaluation of a Decline in Population of the Koala, Phascolarctos-Cinereus (Goldfuss) in Ventnor Reserve, Phillip I Vic, by Means of a Triple-Count Technique." Wildlife Research 13, no. 4 (1986): 517. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wr9860517.
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A decline in the koala population on Phillip I , has been evident for some time. This study, in an area set apart from public access, quantifies some aspects of this decline. A triple-count technique for a closed population model, with the freedom that the probability of sighting can vary between the surveys, was used to obtain an estimate of the population within a 65-ha study area. The initial population, in June 1980, was estimated to be 117; this declined to 62 in 3.5 years, during which period 23 deaths and 24 births were recorded. The decline, which averaged 16 koalas per year, is discussed in terms of the low birth rate, of dispersal, and of the contribution of predation by dogs to the death rate.
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Jenkins, Kurt J., and N. L. Barten. "Demography and decline of the Mentasta caribou herd in Alaska." Canadian Journal of Zoology 83, no. 9 (September 1, 2005): 1174–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/z05-111.
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We evaluated population trends in the Mentasta caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) herd in Wrangell – St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska, from 1990 to 1997 and determined factors contributing to its decline. We postulated that predation-related mortality of adult females and juveniles was the proximate cause of the decline, and that survival of juvenile caribou reflected interactions with winter severity, calving distribution, timing of births, density of caribou, and physical condition of neonates at birth. The population declined at its greatest rate from 1990 to 1993 (r = –0.32) and at a lower rate from 1994 to 1997 (r = –0.09). Recruitment (number of calves/100 females during September) averaged 4/100 during the rapid population decline from 1990 to 1993 and 13/100 from 1994 to 1997. Parturition rate of adult females ranged from 65% to 97%. Survival of adult females and juveniles ranged from 0.77 to 0.86 and from 0.00 to 0.22, respectively. Approximately 43%, 59%, and 79% of all juvenile mortality occurred by 1, 2, and 4 weeks of age, respectively. We confirmed predation-related mortality as the primary proximate cause of population decline, with gray wolves (Canis lupus L., 1758), bears (species of the genus Ursus L., 1758), and other predators accounting for 57%, 38%, and 5%, respectively, of all juvenile mortality, and bears causing disproportionate mortality among 0- to 1-week-old neonates. We supported the hypotheses that timing of birth and habitat conditions at the birth site, particularly mottled snow patterns, affected vulnerability and survival of neonates, and birth mass affected survival of juveniles through summer. We speculate that the population will continue to decline before reaching a low-density equilibrium that is sustained by density-dependent changes in the functional responses of predators.
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Roustaei, Zahra, Sari Räisänen, Mika Gissler, and Seppo Heinonen. "Fertility rates and the postponement of first births: a descriptive study with Finnish population data." BMJ Open 9, no. 1 (January 2019): e026336. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026336.
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ObjectivesWe described the trend of fertility rates, age-specific fertility rates and associated factors in Finland over a 30-year period.DesignA descriptive population-based register study.SettingFertility data, including age at first birth, childlessness and educational levels were gathered from the Finnish Medical Birth Register and Statistics Finland.ParticipantsAll 1 792 792 live births from 1987 to 2016 in Finland.Main outcome measuresCompleted fertility rate, total fertility rate and age-specific fertility rate.ResultsThe total fertility rate of Finnish women fluctuated substantially from 1987 to 2016. Since 2010, the total fertility rate has gradually declined and reached the lowest during the study period in 2016: 1.57 children per woman. The mean maternal age at first birth rose by 2.5 years from 26.5 years in 1987 to 29 years in 2016. The proportion of childless women at the age of 50 years increased from 13.6% in 1989 to 19.6% in 2016. By considering the impact of postponement and childlessness, the effect on total fertility rates was between −0.01 and −0.12 points. Since 1987, the distribution of birth has declined for women under the age of 29 and increased for women aged 30 or more. However, start of childbearing after the age of 30 years was related to the completed fertility rate of less than two children per woman. The difference in completed fertility rate across educational groups was small.ConclusionsPostponement of first births was followed by decline in completed fertility rate. Increasing rate of childlessness, besides the mean age at first birth, was an important determinant for declined fertility rates, but the relation between women’s educational levels and the completed fertility rate was relatively weak.
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Allen, Gordon. "The Non-Decline in U.S. Twin Birth Rates, 1964–1983." Acta geneticae medicae et gemellologiae: twin research 36, no. 3 (July 1987): 313–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0001566000006061.
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AbstractDetailed twin birth rates for the United States are unavailable since 1964. In 1983 the crude twinning rate for women of white race was higher than in 1964, but there had been great changes in maternal age and parity. Indirect standardization for maternal age and birth order provides estimated total twinning rates that can be compared over the entire period. The adjusted rates for whites show a nearly continuous increase except after a 2-year reporting hiatus, 1969-70, when rates dropped back 10%. In blacks the adjusted rate increased between 1966 and 1978, except for the 1968-71 shift. The distributions of rate increases by maternal age and by race argue against effects of medical ovulation stimulants, but a disproportionate increase of triplets argues for such effects. Study is needed of rates specific for maternal age and parity, rather than of total rates.
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Merli, M. Giovanna. "Underreporting of Births and Infant Deaths in Rural China: Evidence from Field Research in One County of Northern China." China Quarterly 155 (September 1998): 637–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0305741000050025.
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Between the beginning of the 1950s and the early 1970s, China, like many other countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, experienced rapid population growth. This was due mainly to a dramatic mortality decline not offset by any decline in the birth rate. In 1970, China had a crude birth rate of 33.43 (per 1,000), a crude death rate of 7.60 (per 1,000) and a rate of natural increase of 25.83. “Population growth” was identified as a fundamental obstacle to economic development, and the stage was set for large-scale state interventions in the process of human reproduction. The apotheosis of this intervention was the introduction, in 1979, of the One Child Policy, which was successfully implemented in the urban areas. In rural areas, policies promoting later marriage, one child – maximum two – per couple, and greater spacing of those births that are permitted contributed to the swift fertility decline witnessed over the last three decades. In 1996 China's birth and death rates were reported at 16.98 per 1,000 and 6.56 per 1,000 respectively and the population was growing at 10.42 per 1,000.
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de Moraes, M. H. Baena, B. Beiguelman, and H. Krieger. "Decline of the Twinning Rate in Brazil." Acta geneticae medicae et gemellologiae: twin research 38, no. 1-2 (April 1989): 57–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000156600000283x.
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AbstractThe twinning rate during a twenty-year period (1965-1985) was investigated at five-year intervals in four Brazilian hospitals. During this period the twinning rate has decreased significantly (from 10.68‰ to 8.11‰), being highly negatively correlated with the five-year intervals (r = −0.97). This change was due mainly to the decline in dizygotic twinning, since the incidence of DZ twins has fallen from around 7‰ in 1965 to around 3.6‰ in 1985. The detected decline in DZ twinning seems to be due to the remotion of the fertility advantage of the more fecundable DZ twin-prone women by the introduction of effective birth control at the present, while some other mechanisms are causing the decline irrespective of the type of twinning.
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Ma, Rui, Yali Luo, Jun Wang, Yanxia Zhou, Haiyang Sun, Xi Ren, Quan Xu, Lian Zhang, and Lingyun Zou. "Ten-year time trends in preterm birth during a sociodemographic transition period: a retrospective cohort study in Shenzhen, China." BMJ Open 10, no. 10 (October 2020): e037266. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-037266.
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ObjectivesTo investigate time trends of preterm birth and estimate the contributions of risk factors to the changes in preterm birth rates over a decade (2009–2018) of transitional period in Shenzhen, China.DesignRetrospective cohort study between 2009 and 2018.SettingAll births in Baoan during January 2009 and December 2018 registered in the Shenzhen Birth Registry Database.Participants478 044 live births were included with sociodemographic and medical records for both women and infants.Outcome measuresThe incidence rate of preterm birth stratified by different maternal and infant characteristics. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify significant risk factors associated with preterm birth. The population attributable risk fraction of each factor was calculated to estimate its contribution to variations of preterm birth rate over the 10 years.ResultsA total of 27 829 preterm births from 478 044 (5.8%) live births were recorded and the preterm birth rate increased from 5.5% in 2009 to 6.2% in 2018. Medically induced preterm birth rate increased from 2.0% in 2009 to 3.4% in 2018 while spontaneous preterm labour rate decreased from 3.3% to 2.7% over the decade years. Risk factors including multiple pregnancy (0.28% increase) drove the rise of preterm birth rate, whereas changes in maternal educational attainment (0.22% reduction) and prenatal care utilisation (0.45% reduction) had contributed to the decline in preterm birth rate.ConclusionsAn uptrend of preterm birth rate was observed in an area under rapid sociodemographic transitions during 2009–2018 and the changes were associated with these sociodemographic transitions. Continued investments in girls’ education and prenatal care have the potential of reducing preterm birth rate.
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Gootwine, E. "Variability in the rate of decline in birth weight as litter size increases in sheep." Animal Science 81, no. 3 (December 2005): 393–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/asc41160393.
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AbstractCarrying multiple foetuses leads to a decline in lamb birth weight. The rate of litter size-dependent birth weight decline (LSDBD) in a population can be obtained by calculating the linear relationship between the reciprocal of lamb's birth weight and the respective litter size. Based on published data on lamb birth weight and by using the reciprocal approach, LSDBD rate was calculated for 70 purebred and crossbred sheep populations in which birth weight of lambs born as singles ranged from 1·3 to 6·3 kg. High variability in LSDBD was found. Both genetic and environmental factors may contribute to the variability of this trait.
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Kapoguzov, Evgenii, Roman Chupin, and Maria Kharlamova. "Institutional Capacity and Control of Legitimate Birth Rate in Siberian Regions." Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Political, Sociological and Economic sciences 2019, no. 4 (December 30, 2019): 398–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2019-4-4-398-405.
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The research featured the decline of legitimate birth rate in the context of the transformation that family institution is currently undergoing. According to the Demography National project of the Russian Federation, the key objective of the national demographic policy is to increase the number of children up to 1.7 per woman. The authors believe that it is impossible to achieve the target indicator without revealing the institutional capacity of the so-called traditional family, which has a lower the level of birth control by abortion and contraception. In order to determine the institutional capacity of the national project, the authors estimated the legitimate birth rate and the level of birth control by the population. The methods involved the Coale-Trussell’s model, which is based on the assumption that controlled birth rate deviates from natural birth rate. The study was based on the data about the number of births in 2017. The data were obtained from twelve Siberian regions and included such information as maternal age and legitimacy. The Coale-Trussell’s model revealed a good institutional capacity that can enhance the demographic function of the family and increase the birth rate.
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Wegman, Myron E. "Annual Summary of Vital Statistics—1993." Pediatrics 94, no. 6 (December 1, 1994): 792–803. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.94.6.792.
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A new low in the infant mortality rate was reached again in 1993, at 828.8 deaths per 100 000 live births, a decline of 2% from 848.7 in 1992. Births, marriages, and divorces were all lower, both in number and rate. Deaths and the death rate, however, both increased and, more significantly, the age-adjusted death rate increased. A likely explanation is the occurrence of influenza epidemics in early and late 1993. The rate of natural increase declined 8%, to a level of 6.9 per 1000 population. Final figures on births for 1992 indicate that, for the first time in many years, birth rates to teen-agers declined, more among black mothers than white. Increase in birth rate among older mothers continued at a somewhat slower rate than recently; older mothers tended to be better educated than the general population in their age groups. Total fertility rates were higher among mothers of Hispanic origin than among non-Hispanic blacks who, in turn, had higher rates than non-Hispanic whites. Among Hispanics the highest rates were in those of Mexican origin. Unlike recent years, birth rates to unmarried mothers did not increase in 1992. Prenatal care coverage improved, with more mothers seeking care early and fewer receiving late or no care. Electronic and fetal monitoring was performed on more than three-quarters of all births and ultrasound on more than half. Life expectancy decreased slightly, in contrast to recent years. Among major causes of death, increases were recorded in 1993 for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, pneumonia and influenza, and HIV infection, the latter having the largest percentage increase. Internationally, infant mortality rates in most other industrialized countries declined further in 1992. Comparatively, as in 1991, 21 other countries had infant mortality rates lower than the United States.
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Udjo, Eric O. "Is fertility falling in Zimbabwe?" Journal of Biosocial Science 28, no. 1 (January 1996): 25–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021932000022069.
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SummaryWith an unequalled contraceptive prevalence rate in sub-Saharan Africa, of 43% among currently married women in Zimbabwe, the Central Statistical Office (1989) observed that fertility has declined sharply in recent years. Using data from several surveys on Zimbabwe, especially the birth histories of the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, this study examines fertility trends in Zimbabwe. The results show that the fertility decline in Zimbabwe is modest and that the decline is concentrated among high order births. Multivariate analysis did not show a statistically significant effect of contraception on fertility, partly because a high proportion of Zimbabwean women in the reproductive age group never use contraception due to prevailing pronatalist attitudes in the country.
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Fedorov, G. M. "On the factors and features of fertility dynamics and regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia." Regional nye issledovaniya 72, no. 2 (2021): 48–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2021-2-5.
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After a sharp decline in the birth rate in the crisis 1990s, and its subsequent rise in 2000–2015, starting in 2016, the birth rate has declined again. Its territorial differences are great. These and other problems of demographic development actualize geodemographic research, the results of which are necessary to improve strategic and spatial planning. The article analyzes the course of changes in the fertility process in 2000–2020, typologizes regions in terms of the size and dynamics of the birth rate depending on changes in the total fertility rate and the share of women aged 20-34 in the total population. It evaluates as well the role of the dynamics of real incomes of the population and the effectiveness of the maternity capital program. It is shown that the directions of changes in the rate of population reproduction (growth or decline) in all regions, with significant quantitative differences, have common qualitative features. It is shown that the directions of changes in the rate of population reproduction (growth or decline) in all regions, with significant quantitative differences, have common qualitative features. State statistics data were used. The authors carried out the study using the methods of combined groupings, correlation and economic-cartographic analysis. The results can be used in the practice of government and administrative authorities to differentiate regional policy in accordance with the specifics of the reproduction of the population of the regions.
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Troshkina, Irina Nikolaevna, Sailyk Mergenovna Karashpai, and Aliya Viktorovna Sat. "The dynamics of family structure as a leading factor of decline in birth rate (on the example of Tuva Republic and Republic of Khakassia)." Социодинамика, no. 6 (June 2020): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.25136/2409-7144.2020.6.32986.
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The goal of this research is to examine family structure due to the decline in birth rate in Tuva Republic and Republic of Khakassia in the early Xxi century. The authors attempt to reveal the factors affecting the decline in birth rate, and determine other components of the dynamics of family structure (number of families, family size, parenthood status). The object of this research is the transformation of the structure of family institution, while the subject is the dynamics of current family structure in the two republics. The article reviews the leading factor of the dynamics of birth rate. The authors’ special contribution consists in covering the problem of decline in birth rate as a result of transformation of family structure in the regions of Southern Siberia. The scientific novelty lies in studying the regional component of decline in birth rate under the influence of a set of factors, including the transformation of family structure. The area of application of the research results is the activity of ministries and departments, as well as special courses in the university on the discipline Familistic. The following conclusions were made: 1) birth rate is affected by various factors, such as education of women, urbanization level, financial situation in family, household structure; 2) state of the key components in the dynamics of family is characterized by the increase in a number of households, reduction in their size, complication or simplification of family structure, prevalence of one-child and growth of the portion of two-children families.
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Velarde, Marissa, and Fernando Zegers-Hochschild. "Measuring the distribution of adolescent births among 15–19-year-olds in Chile: an ecological study." Journal of Family Planning and Reproductive Health Care 43, no. 4 (June 21, 2017): 302–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jfprhc-2015-101230.
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BackgroundAlthough within Latin America Chile has one of the lowest birth rates among adolescents, it has a high rate in comparison to other developed nations.AimTo explore trends in birth rates among adolescents by selected demographics in Chile.MethodsThe national trend in birth rates was examined for women aged 15–19 years between 1992 and 2012. The birth rates for regions and communes were calculated using birth and census data and were analysed to determine its relationship to the regional or communal poverty rate, which were obtained from the Casen Survey. Differences in educational attainment were explored among adolescents with first-order and second-order or higher births using the Chi-square test.ResultsThe birth rate among adolescents has experienced a 25% decline in the past 20 years. Cross-regional variance in birth rates could not be explained by poverty rates. Within the Metropolitan Region, there is a positive correlation between poverty and adolescent birth rates. Among adolescents giving birth, 67% had completed 10–12 years of school at birth, but there is a significant difference in educational attainment between girls with a first-order and those with a higher-order birth.ConclusionsIn Chile, the adolescent birth rate varies greatly among regions and communes. This study found that urban and wealthy areas had lower birth rates than poor and rural ones, and that girls with a first-order birth had completed more years of school than girls with higher-order births.
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Heseker, Helmut B., Joel B. Mason, Jacob Selhub, Irwin H. Rosenberg, and Paul F. Jacques. "Not all cases of neural-tube defect can be prevented by increasing the intake of folic acid." British Journal of Nutrition 102, no. 2 (December 16, 2008): 173–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007114508149200.
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Some countries have introduced mandatory folic acid fortification, whereas others support periconceptional supplementation of women in childbearing age. Several European countries are considering whether to adopt a fortification policy. Projections of the possible beneficial effects of increased folic acid intake assume that the measure will result in a considerable reduction in neural-tube defects (NTD) in the target population. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to evaluate the beneficial effects of different levels of folic acid administration on the prevalence of NTD. Countries with mandatory fortification achieved a significant increase in folate intake and a significant decline in the prevalence of NTD. This was also true for supplementation trials. However, the prevalence of NTD at birth declined to approximately five cases at birth per 10 000 births and seven to eight cases at birth or abortion per 10 000 births. This decline was independent of the amount of folic acid administered and apparently reveals a ‘floor effect’ for folic acid-preventable NTD. This clearly shows that not all cases of NTD are preventable by increasing the folate intake. The relative decline depends on the initial NTD rate. Countries with NTD prevalence close to the observed floor may have much smaller reductions in NTD rates with folic acid fortification. Additionally, potential adverse effects of fortification on other vulnerable population groups have to be seriously considered. Policy decisions concerning national mandatory fortification programmes must take into account realistically projected benefits as well as the evidence of risks to all vulnerable groups.
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Zyryanova, Maria A. "The demographic reasons of new period of fertility decline in the northern regions of Russia." Север и рынок: формирование экономического порядка, no. 3-3021 (September 30, 2021): 104–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.37614/2220-802x.3.2021.73.007.
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At the last time the North is a one of important vector of country’s economy strategic development. A rich mineral resource and fuel and energy bases give the reason for development and implementation of the new investment projects. Successful economic developing of territories needs in human resources, however a number of northern regions of the country have persistent problems in demographic sphere: low level of birth-rate and migration outflow. Here are Republic of Karelia, Komi Republic, Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Magadan, Sakhalin and Kamchatka regions and in 2018–2019 the Chukotka Autonomous Region also can be included. In the last years in these regions, as in the whole in Russia, the deterioration of the birth-rate situation began. Therefore, the purpose of the research is to identify demographic reasons of birth-rate reduction in the Russian northern regions. The index method was used. It helped to find what value at the dynamics of total birth-rate coefficient belongs to changes in the proportion of women aged 15–49 years old in a population, in the age birth-rate coefficient, and also in the age structure of a female reproductive group. According to research it was found a favorable effect in 2014–2016 on the preservation of the positive dynamic of the total birth-rate coefficient in the conditions of negative influence of factors of demographic structure exactly for a reason of increasing of the real fertility. It was detected, that in 2017–2019, a negative effect on the dynamic of the total birth-rate coefficient has implemented significant decrease in birth-rate itself and not only structural factors. The revealed beginning of the reduction of age- specific birth rates confirms the importance of prolongation of family and demographic policy in the field of improving the economic situation of families with children, increasing the status of parenthood in society. The high-priority task in the conditions of factors increasing, that complicate to preserve economic stability in the country, is to provide a decent level and quality of life, an accessibility of the most important living benefits — comfortable housing and jobs with salary, that can qualitatively satisfy a wide range of needs of families with children.
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Zinkina, Yu V., and S. G. Shulgin. "Scenario Forecasts of Population Dynamics in Some Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa." Statistics and Economics 17, no. 3 (June 30, 2020): 47–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2020-3-47-57.
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Purpose. In Sub-Saharan Africa, UN demographers expect the population to nearly double over the next 30 years (2020–2050), increasing by more than 1 billion people. Demographic changes of such speed and scale will undoubtedly have global implications. The purpose of the work is to calculate a number of scenarios of the demographic future for some countries of the region, taking into account specific features and events of African recent demographic history (in contrast to the UN forecasts). We also aim to assess the difference between various scenarios for each country and the attainability of the “optimistic” scenario.Materials and methods. We develop scenario forecasts for population dynamics in a number of African countries. In all scenarios, mortality dynamics corresponds to the “medium” UN forecast. For the birth rate dynamics, two scenarios were simulated: the optimistic one (birth rate goes from current rates to 2.1 children per woman in 20 years, which was observed in Iran; Rwanda and Ethiopia are more or less close to this scenario) and the inertial one (for countries where birth rate declined in 2005–2015, this decline was simulated to continue at the same rate; for countries where birth rate “froze”, two options were modeled; both projected birth rate decline at 0.1 child per woman annually, either starting immediately or after another 10 years).The results show that all scenarios, even the “optimistic” one, forecast a huge population increase in all countries considered (Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia) over the next 30 years. Slow birth rate decline (or prolonged “stagnation” at high levels) parallel to successful mortality reduction (especially in infants and children) accumulated enormous demographic inertia in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (to calculate its scope, an additional “provisional” scenario was calculated in the work). The difference between the “inertial” and the “optimistic” reaches the size or even sometimes exceeds the current population of the country. This underlines the importance of the governments’ efforts to curb population growth. Ethiopia proves such efforts.Conclusion. Only in Ethiopia the “inertial” and “optimistic” scenarios almost coincide thanks to demographic growth-reducing efforts undertaken there since the early 1990s; thus, in 2005–2015 the birth rate decreased by 1.3 children per woman. This proves that achieving an “optimistic” scenario is possible in African countries, although with considerable and concentrated efforts.
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Odwe, George, Anne Khasakhala, Titus Agwanda, Andrew Imbwaga, and Zena Lyaga. "Mortality Decline in Kenya: A Reexamination of Recent Under-Five Mortality Estimate." International Journal of Population Research 2015 (July 9, 2015): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/296437.
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This study examined the extent of birth displacement and its effect on the under-five mortality estimates in Kenya. Using data from 2003 and 2008/09 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys, we evaluate the variability of birth displacement by region and place of residence based on the survival status of the child. We compute birth ratios for children born in the 5th calendar year preceding each survey and note the possible effect on under-five mortality estimates. Results show that under-five mortality estimates in 2008/09 survey are smaller than that of a similar period in 2003 survey by 17 percent. Overall, birth ratios for the 5th calendar year were below 100 percent suggesting presence of birth displacement. However, there was no variance in the displacement between surviving and dead children, hence modest impact on the under-five mortality rate. Evidence suggests that the remarkable decline in the under-five mortality rate recorded in 2008/09 is a function of both overestimation of mortality rate in 2003 survey and underestimation in 2008/09 survey. We recommend that data from more than one source be used to interpret under-five mortality decline and further research should be conducted linking the observed mortality decline to the delivery of known effective interventions.
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Wegman, Myron E. "Annual Summary of Vital Statistics—1991." Pediatrics 90, no. 6 (December 1, 1992): 835–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.90.6.835.
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Between 1990 and 1991, provisional data show that the infant mortality rate decreased again, from 9.1 to 8.9, a decline of 2% in contrast to the 7% decline from 1989 to 1990. Birth, death, and marriage rates were also lower, but the divorce rate stayed at about the same level as in 1990. Natural increase in the population, excess of births over deaths, was less than 2 million, 4% less than the increase in 1990. Detailed analysis of changes and of the influence of factors like age and race requires final data; at the time of preparation of this report final birth and death data were available only through 1989. For a variety of reasons, including staff shortages and delays in receipt of state data by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), final data for 1990, which would usually have been available in late August 1992, are not expected before early 1993. Unlike recent years, the decline in the infant mortality rate was only in the neonatal component, which decreased 3.6%. Postneonatal mortality increased, for the first time in many years, by 1.6%, suggesting that the decline in the total is related more to therapeutic advances in neonatology than to improved prevention. Internationally, newly independent Latvia was added to the list of countries with rates less than 15, but Costa Rica was deleted. With the reunification of Germany the list shrank to 28 and, by default, the United States moved up from 21st to 20th. Some 12.5 million births, less than 9% of the world total, took place in countries with under-5 mortality rates of less than 20 per 1000. At the other end of the scale, 42% of the world's births occurred in countries with under-5 mortality rates of more than 140 per 1000. The median under-5 mortality rate for those countries in 1990 was 189 per 1000, meaning that almost 20% of the infants born alive in these countries died before their fifth birthday.
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JAMES, WILLIAM H. "INFERTILITY TREATMENT AND MULTIPLE BIRTH RATES IN BRITAIN 1938-94. A Comment." Journal of Biosocial Science 30, no. 1 (January 1998): 127–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021932098211278.
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Murphy et al. (1997) showed age-standardised twinning rates for Scotland and England & Wales 1952–94. The rates declined to a value of about 9·2 per 1000 around 1978–81 and subsequently increased to about 11·5 per 1000 in 1992–94. The authors conclude their paper with the words: 'perhaps 15% of twins nationally now follow treatment and the natural twinning rate might still be in decline'.
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Dawodu, A., E. Varady, M. Verghese, and L. l. Al Gazali. "Neonatal audit in the United Arab Emirates: a country with a rapidly developing economy." Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal 6, no. 1 (February 15, 2000): 55–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.26719/2000.6.1.55.
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We aimed to determine whether birth-weight-specific mortality rates and causes of neonatal death could identify interventions needed to reduce neonatal mortality rates. Data were collected from three hospitals responsible for 99% of births in Al-Ain Medical District. There were 8083 live births weighing >/= 500 g, of which 54 [0.67%] died. The mortality rate among very low-birth-weight infants was higher in this district than from centres with more advanced neonatal technology and resources. Problems of preterm births, lethal malformations and asphyxia accounted for 95% of deaths and half of the malformations were autosomal recessive syndromes. Improved management of lower-birth-weight infants, asphyxia and genetic counselling could lead to a further decline in neonatal mortality rates
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Shubat, O. M. "Statistical Estimates of the Decline of the Russian Fertility: Regional Specifcs." Voprosy statistiki 28, no. 5 (October 27, 2021): 39–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2021-28-5-39-48.
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The study focuses on analyzing regional features of the decline in the birth rate in Russia in 2016–2019. Taking into account regional specifcs is crucial when perfecting the implemented measures for improving the general demographic situation in the Russian Federation.The information base of the study contained time series of the total fertility rate in selected Russian regions. The author used methods of descriptive statistics and assessed convergent trends based on the sigma-, beta- and gamma-convergence methods. Spatial effects in regional differentiation of fertility were assessed based on Moran's I.As a result of the analysis, the following features were established. Firstly, in recent years in Russia, there has been a high degree of differentiation in the recorded declining birth rates. Secondly, the processes of falling fertility in the regions have specifc characteristics, the absence of typical trajectories in those subjects where it fell most or least of all. Thirdly, in Russia, there are no pronounced territo rial localizations of the processes of fertility decline. And fourthly, based on a comparison of the birth rate dynamics in Russian regions, no convergent trends have been identifed, i. e., there is no convergence of territorial entities in terms of the birth rate.According to the author, the demographic policy of recent years has not yet responded positively either in terms of birth rate growth or leveling of regional differences. The results obtained indicate that unifed approaches are unsuited to solving the demographic problems of Russian territories, and there is a need for demographic policy measures that take into account regional variability and are aimed at smoothing regional disproportions. Consequently, it is necessary to conduct regular statistical and demographic studies of the specificity of regional situations using methods of convergence and spatial autocorrelation analysis, rarely used in demography
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Rouyer, Alwyn R. "Political Capacity and the Decline of Fertility in India." American Political Science Review 81, no. 2 (June 1987): 453–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1961961.
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With data from 15 Indian states, in this study I demonstrate that political capacity, defined as the ability of government to penetrate society and extract resources, has a more significant—though indirect—effect on fertility behavior than does level of economic development. A path-analysis model with six variables—crude birth rate (the dependent variable), family-planning-program effort, mean female age at marriage, physical-quality-of-life index (PQLI), income per capita, and political capacity—showed a strong indirect effect by the political-capacity measure on fertility decline through both the PQLI and family-planning effort. Within the model, income per capita had little effect on birth rate or any of the intervening variables. The conclusion drawn is that under conditions of economic backwardness as exist in India, it is politics, not economics, that is the primary determinant of fertility patterns.
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Ryan, Alan S., David Rush, Fritz W. Krieger, and Gregory E. Lewandowski. "Recent Declines in Breast-Feeding in the United States, 1984 Through 1989." Pediatrics 88, no. 4 (October 1, 1991): 719–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.88.4.719.
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Ongoing surveys performed by Ross Laboratories demonstrate recent declines both in the initiation of breast-feeding and continued breast-feeding at 6 months of age. Comparing rates in 1984 and 1989, the initiation of breast-feeding declined approximately 13% (from 59.7% to 52.2%), and there was a 24% decline in the rate of breast-feeding at 6 months of age (from 23.8% to 18.1%). The decline in breast-feeding was seen across all groups studied but was greater in some groups than in others. Logistic regression analysis indicates that white ethnicity, some college education, increased maternal age, and having an infant of normal birth weight were all positively associated with the likelihood of both initiating breast-feeding and continuing to breast-feed to at least 6 months of age. Women who were black and who were younger, no more than high school educated, enrolled in the Women, Infants and Children supplemental food program, working outside the home, not living in the western states, and who had an infant of low birth weight were less likely either to initiate breast-feeding or to be nursing when their children were 6 months of age. The factors influencing the decline in breast-feeding were not uniform. There were fewer sociodemograpahic factors associated with the decline in the initiation of breast-feeding than in the decline in prolonged breast-feeding. While the disparity between older and younger mothers in initiating breast-feeding increased, there was an offsetting trend as the disparity associated with parity decreased. The only other significantly changed relationship for initiation of breast-feeding was that the disparity associated with higher income increased significantly: the decline in the rates of breast-feeding among the less affluent was greater than among the more affluent. Many more sociodemographic factors were significantly associated with declines in breast-feeding at 6 months of age. The disparity between those mothers not employed and those employed increased (from an odds ratio of 1.65 in 1984 to 2.43 in 1989). The disparities associated with age and parity both increased over time: the rate of breast-feeding declined more steeply among younger and primiparous mothers than among older and multiparous mothers. Similarly, the declines were greater among those enrolled in the Women, Infants and Children program (compared with those not enrolled), those with less than a college education (compared with some college education), and those not residing in the western region of the United States (compared with those residing in the West). Educational efforts to promote breast-feeding are needed for all pregnant women and should be particularly directed toward the groups who have experienced the most rapid recent decline in the rates of breast-feeding.
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Rhodes, Julia C., Kenneth C. Schoendorf, and Jennifer D. Parker. "Contribution of Excess Weight Gain During Pregnancy and Macrosomia to the Cesarean Delivery Rate, 1990–2000." Pediatrics 111, Supplement_1 (May 1, 2003): 1181–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.111.s1.1181.
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Objective. After declining for many years, cesarean delivery rates recently increased. To explore whether this increase is associated with excess weight gain during pregnancy, resulting in macrosomic infants who require cesarean delivery, we examined trends in excess weight gain, macrosomia, and cesarean delivery. Methods. Analysis of 1990–2000 US Natality Files of birth certificate data were restricted to first birth, singleton infants of 37 to 42 weeks’ gestation to avoid confounding by repeat cesarean delivery, complications of multigestational pregnancy, and preterm and postterm birth. Excess weight gain was defined according to current guidelines (41+ lb) and macrosomia as birth weight >4000 g. Results. From 1990–2000, excess weight gain rose steadily from 18.6% to 24.2%. There was a 19.3% decline in macrosomic infants among women who gained excess weight compared with an 11.9% decline among women who gained 15–40 lb, although the absolute risk remained substantially greater among women who gained excess weight (eg, 14.2% vs 7.2%, in 2000). From 1990–1997, cesarean delivery declined by 20.2% among women who gained excess weight compared with 15.7% among women who gained 15 to 40 lb. After 1997, cesarean delivery increased in all weight gain categories, and absolute risks in 2000 were 25.8% for women who gained excess weight compared with 21.6% for women who gained 15–40 lb. Overall, women who gained excess weight accounted for 24.1% of cesarean deliveries in 1990 and 28.1% in 2000. Conclusions. Excess weight gain and macrosomia do not seem to be the primary factors that contribute to the recent increase in cesarean delivery because cesarean delivery rates have increased in all weight gain categories and macrosomia rates have decreased steadily from 1990–2000. Nonetheless, women who gain excess weight account for a growing proportion of cesarean deliveries because their relative numbers have grown.
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Shen, Xiao-Han, Yung-Yueh Chang, Rong-Qi Pham, Wei-An Chen, Fang-Yu Li, Wan-Chin Huang, and Yu-Wen Lin. "Secular-Trend Analysis of the Incidence Rate of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Taiwan." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 2 (January 16, 2023): 1614. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20021614.
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Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide, and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) is Taiwan’s second most common lung carcinoma histotype. This study aimed to investigate changes in the long-term trend of the SQC incidence rate in Taiwan. SQC cases between 1985 and 2019 were adopted from Taiwan‘s Cancer Registry System; the age-adjusted incidence rate was calculated using the World Standard Population in 2000. The long-term trends of the age, period, and birth cohort effect of SQC incidence rates were estimated using the SEER Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool. The results revealed that the incidence of lung carcinoma in Taiwan increased, while the incidence of SQC exhibited a slight decrease during this study period. The age rate ratio (ARR) of the incidence rate in men declined gradually, and the period effect changed more slowly for women than men. The cohort effect formed a bimodal curve. The annual percentage change results for women indicated that the ARR decreased from 1.652 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.422, 1.9192) at 30 to 34 years to 0.559 (95% CI: 0.4988, 0.6265) at 75 to 79 years; the period effect decreased from 1.2204 (95% CI: 1.1148, 1.336) in 1995 to 1999 to 0.608 (95% CI: 0.5515, 0.6704) in 2015 to 2019, with a greater decline in the later period. The cohort effect was unimodal, with the SQC risk value peaking in the 1915 birth cohort and exhibiting a steady decline thereafter. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in the smoking rate may be the reason for the decline in the incidence of SQC, and we observed a similar trend between SQC and the smoking rate in men.
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Radovanović, Snežana, Milena Maričić, Slađana Radivojević, Predrag Stanojlović, Divna Simović-Šiljković, Marija Mujković, and Mirjana Gazdić. "Epidemiological characteristics and trends of birth movements in Serbia." Zdravstvena zastita 49, no. 4 (2020): 17–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/zdravzast49-28585.
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Introduction/Aim: In recent decades, declines in fertility rates have been reported in almost every country in the world. The aim of the research is the analysis of epidemiological characteristics and childbirth trends in Serbia in the period 2007-2016. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive, epidemiological study. The research data were collected from the Health Statistical Yearbooks of the Institute of Public Health of the Republic of Serbia "Dr Milan Jovanovic Batut" in the period 2007-2016. Total fertility rates, stillbirth rates, birth rates, infant mortality rates, and preterm birth rates were used for the analysis of data, while the linear trend and regression analysis were used to analyze the trend. Results: Average rate of general fertility in Serbia in the period 2007-2016 was 1.5 children per woman. In the period 2007-2016, 660,069 births were registered in Serbia with a total of 671,715 children born, of which 4,054 were stillborn (0.6%). Two thirds (66.1%) of stillborn children were born prematurely. The number of premature births increased with maternal age. Of 667,661 live births in maternity hospitals, 924 newborns died (0.1%). In the observed period, a continuous trend of decreasing number of births was registered (y = 68,427-439.99x, R2 = 0.628), as well as the number of live births (y = 69,084-421.44x, R2 = 0.591). The trend of still birth rates showed a slight decrease (y = 6,138-0,012x, R2 = 0,016), as well as the trend of infant mortality rates (y = 1,882-50,091x, R2 = 0,683), but there came to an increase in the trend of the general fertility rate (y = 39.481 + 0.242x, R2 = 0.544). The average general fertility rate for the ten-year period was 41.1 live births per 1000 women of the fertile period and ranged from 38.2‰ to 41.7‰. The largest increase in the fertility rate was registered in the age group 40-44 years from 3.8‰ in 2007 to 9.9‰ in 2016 (2.6 times more), and then in the age group 30-39 years with 43.2‰ in 2007 to 63.0 ‰ in 2016 (1.4 times more). There came to a decline in the fertility rate at the age of 20-29 from 80.4‰ in 2007 to 72.2 ‰ in 2016. The highest rates of stillbirth were registered in the oldest group of 45-49 years (23.3 ‰), and the lowest in persons younger than 15 years (0.7‰). Conclusion: Birth revitalization policies must engage all levels of society to build awareness and moral responsibility for fertility.
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HEIJDRA, BEN J., and JENNY E. LIGTHART. "THE MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC SHOCKS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 10, no. 3 (March 24, 2006): 349–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100506050188.
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The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, although keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, give rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction that leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita private consumption rises.
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Wegman, Myron E. "Annual Summary of Vital Statistics—1989." Pediatrics 86, no. 6 (December 1, 1990): 835–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.86.6.835.
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US infant mortality continued to decline slowly and the provisional 1989 rate, 9.7 per 1000 live births, was the lowest ever recorded. Final 1988 data showed no change in cause of death distribution or in the wide discrepancy between white and black infant mortality. State rates varied from 6.8 in Vermont to 12.6 in Georgia. Worldwide, the US rate of 10.0 was bettered by 21 other countries, with Japan lowest at 4.8. Births increased in number and rate, because of a higher fertility rate and more women in the childbearing years. The birth rate to mothers 17 years of age and younger increased again. The proportion of women who had no or inadequate prenatal care was essentially unchanged. Deaths, crude death rate, and age-adjusted death rate decreased. The excess of births over deaths added almost 1.9 million persons to the US population, the highest rate of natural increase since 1971. The marriage rate was essentially unchanged, whereas the divorce rate decreased slightly, to the lowest level since 1973. With the exception of human immunodeficiency virus infection, homicide, and pulmonary malignancies, rates for most causes of death declined from 1988 to 1989. In comparison with 1940, most declines were substantial, led by pneumonia, down about 80%, and perinatal conditions, down about 75%. The only large-scale increases among major causes in the half century were in two diseases related to cigarette smoking: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, up eightfold, and respiratory cancer, up almost sixfold. Death rates from all other cancers, as a group, decreased by some 20% and from cardiovascular diseases by some 60%.
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Morisaki, Naho, Kevin Yuji Urayama, Keisuke Yoshii, S. V. Subramanian, and Susumu Yokoya. "Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan." Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 71, no. 10 (August 19, 2017): 1014–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2017-209266.
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BackgroundJapan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s.MethodsWe observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969–2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan.ResultsLBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978–1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=−0.98; women, r=−0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014.ConclusionsAdult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated.
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Richter, Lindsay L., Joseph Ting, Giulia M. Muraca, Anne Synnes, Kenneth I. Lim, and Sarka Lisonkova. "Temporal trends in neonatal mortality and morbidity following spontaneous and clinician-initiated preterm birth in Washington State, USA: a population-based study." BMJ Open 9, no. 1 (January 2019): e023004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2018-023004.
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ObjectiveAfter a decade of increase, the preterm birth (PTB) rate has declined in the USA since 2006, with the largest decline at late preterm (34–36 weeks). We described concomitant changes in gestational age-specific rates of neonatal mortality and morbidity following spontaneous and clinician-initiated PTB among singleton infants.Design, setting and participantsThis retrospective population-based study included 754 763 singleton births in Washington State, USA, 2004–2013, using data from birth certificates and hospitalisation records. PTB subtypes included preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM), spontaneous onset of labour and clinician-initiated delivery.Outcome measuresThe primary outcomes were neonatal mortality and a composite outcome including death or severe neonatal morbidity. Temporal trends in the outcomes and individual morbidities were assessed by PTB subtype. Logistic regression yielded adjusted odds ratios (AOR) per 1 year change in outcome and 95% CI.ResultsThe rate of PTB following PPROM and spontaneous labour declined, while clinician-initiated PTB increased (all p<0.01). Overall neonatal mortality remained unchanged (1.3%; AOR 0.99, CI 0.95 to 1.02), though gestational age-specific mortality following clinician-initiated PTB declined at 32–33 weeks (AOR 0.85, CI 0.74 to 0.97) and increased at 34–36 weeks (AOR 1.10, CI 1.01 to 1.20). The overall rate of the composite outcome increased (from 7.9% to 11.9%; AOR 1.06, CI 1.05 to 1.08). Among late preterm infants, combined mortality or severe morbidity increased following PPROM (AOR 1.13, CI 1.08 to 1.18), spontaneous labour (AOR 1.09, CI 1.06 to 1.13) and clinician-initiated delivery (AOR 1.10, CI 1.07 to 1.13). Neonatal sepsis rates increased among all preterm infants (AOR 1.09, CI 1.08 to 1.11).ConclusionsTiming of obstetric interventions is associated with infant health outcomes at preterm. The temporal decline in late PTB among singleton infants was associated with increased mortality among late preterm infants born following clinician-initiated delivery and increased combined mortality or severe morbidity among all late preterm infants, mainly due to increased rate of sepsis.
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Hain, Frances M., and Jennifer GR Kromberg. "Trends in the twinning rate in Johannesburg, South Africa, 1969–1989 and estimated twinning rates for 1990." Twin Research 1, no. 2 (April 1, 1998): 57–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1375/twin.1.2.57.
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AbstractBirth statistics for the Johannesburg Metropolitan Region were collected for 757 151 confinements from 1969 to 1989 (467 513 Black, 194 375 White, 67 250 Coloured and 28 013 Indian confinements). From 1969 to 1978 data on the sexes of twins were also collected for 375 203 of the confinements (203 504 Black, 129 631 White, 28 253 Coloured and 13 815 Indian confinements). A twin confinement was defined as two deliveries during one confinement. Twinning rates (TRs), defined as the number of twin confinements per 1000 total confinements, were calculated per year for each population group and from 1969–1978 estimates of the relative proportions of dizygotic (DZ) and monozygotic (MZ) twins were calculated and thus the relative DZTRs and MZTRs. A significant decline in Black and Coloured TRs was observed between 1969 and 1989. A significant decline in Black DZTR but not Black MZTR was observed between 1969 and 1978, the Coloured twin sample was too small to show significant trends over this period. It is probable that the overall decline in Black twinning may be explained by a decline in the DZTR. An analysis of birth statistics for 159 748 confinements (134 504 Black and 25 244 White confinements) collected as part of a prospective study of TRs in the Johannesburg Metropolitan Region from 1988 to 1990, indicated that the Black TR continued to decline at least until the end of 1990. TRs in the Johannesburg Metropolitan Region calculated from City Health Department birth statistics collected from 1988 to 1990 were: 13.8 and 10.77 for the Black and White populations, respectively. TRs for this period calculated from the combined birth statistics of 14 hospitals, nursing homes and maternity clinics across the region were: 12.4 and 10.88 for the Black and White populations, respectively.
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Arkhangelskiy, Vladimir N., and Ekaterina S. Zayko. "Fertility and Family Formation in the Moscow Agglomeration during the COVID-19 Pandemic." City Healthcare 3, no. 3 (September 30, 2022): 6–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.47619/2713-2617.zm.2022.v.3i3;6-16.
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The article analyzes changes in fertility and marriage rates in the Moscow agglomeration in 2020–2022. The choice of the Moscow agglomeration as an object is due to the significant influence of the share of nonresident births in Moscow on birth rates in Moscow and the Moscow region, which should be, to some extent, eliminated in order to correctly assess the impact of other factors. In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, marriage
rates dropped significantly, especially for first marriages. A likely consequence of this was that the increase in the total fertility rate for first births in 2021 was very small, but for second and third and subsequent births was substantial. It can be assumed that the negative impact of the decline in marriage rates in 2020 on first births in 2021 was partially offset by the positive impact of the start of the maternity (family) capital for the first child. Combined with the effect of this factor, the increase in marriage rates in 2021 may have contributed to higher fertility rates for first births in the first half of 2022, while they declined for second and third and subsequent births. In addition to its effect on the decline in the number of marriages in 2020 and its indirect effect on first births, the initial period of the pandemic probably had an effect on the significant decline in the number of births in the Moscow agglomeration in January and February 2021.
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Caldwell, John C. "A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)." Pakistan Development Review 35, no. 4I (December 1, 1996): 385–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v35i4ipp.385-398.
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The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.
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Kwon, Ja Kyung. "An Empirical Study for Implications to Respond the Crisis of Local Population Decline in South Korea." Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis 12, no. 6 (June 30, 2022): 13–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.14251/jscm.2022.6.13.
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In the non-Capital area of South Korea, it was found that the cause of the population decline was not solely due to the recent low birth rate. The severe population decline in the non-Capital area is due to the migration of the population to the Capital area. Therefore, this study looked at what regional development factors affect the local population increase. As a result of the regression analysis, the factors affecting population decline were the old housing rate, % of population in library service area, ratio of single-person households over 65, and water supply rate. As factors affecting population growth, green rate, number of residents in charge per 119 safety center, ratio of the school-age population within the elementary school service area, and urban park area per 1,000 people were derived. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, in order to respond to the crisis of local population decline, policies were proposed to remove the factors of population decrease and to activate the factors of population increase in non-Capital areas.
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Wong, Alfred. "Social Upheaval, Poverty and the Latvian Demographic Crisis." Finnish Yearbook of Population Research 50 (March 14, 2016): 97–126. http://dx.doi.org/10.23979/fypr.49516.
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Latvia has been suffering a substantial decrease in population since the early 1990s. There appears to have been little or no detailed analysis of the genesis of this decline in population. The major political event occurring at the beginning of the population decline was the rapid transitioning from socialism to capitalism. This study has revealed the causes of severe population decline to be a combination of steadily-declining birth rate, sharply rising high death rate, and mass emigration of people to wealthier European states. The cross-over of birth rate and death rate could be attributed to the tumultuous societal upheavals in the changeover from the socialistic protective-welfare system to a free-market capitalistic economic system. In particular, this traumatic event had probably affected the physical and mental health of many people to result in premature deaths from, among other things, consequential morbidity, accidents, homicides and suicides. Practicable remedies to arrest the continuing trend of precipitous decline in the population might include a) repairing the failures of the current modality of national health care, b) creating higher paying jobs in Latvia to entice prospective young emigrants to stay in Latvia, and c) repatriating of recent Latvian émigrés.
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Vandenbroucke, Guillaume. "Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6, no. 2 (April 1, 2014): 108–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.2.108.
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During World War I, the birth rate in France fell by 50 percent. Why? I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91 percent of the decline of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss of expected income associated with the risk that a wife remains alone. (JEL D74, J13, J24, N33, N34, N44)
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Müller, S., and S. N. McCutcheon. "Comparative aspects of resistance to body cooling in newborn lambs and kids." Animal Science 52, no. 2 (April 1991): 301–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003356100012812.
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ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to compare responses to cold stress in newborn lambs and kids. Two experiments were conducted in a climatic chamber with controlled air temperatures and artificial wind and rain. The first experiment involved 25 Poll Dorset × (Border Leicester × Romney) lambs and 16 Angora × feral kids while the second involved 30 Suffolk × (Border Leicester × Romney) lambs and 26 Angora × feral kids. Rectal temperatures were measured and the rate of decline in rectal temperature estimated in both experiments. In the second experiment, metabolic rate was also measured and coat characteristics (birth coat depth and wool weight per unit area of skin) were examined. The effects of birth rank and sex on resistance to cold exposure and their interaction with species were examined in both experiments.In experiment 1, kids had lower rectal temperatures than lambs at the start of the test but there was no species effect on the rate of decline in rectal temperature. In experiment 2, kids exhibited a significantly greater rate of decline in rectal temperature than did lambs. This difference in species effect between the experiments reflected primarily a greater rate of body cooling in the Poll Dorset-cross lambs (experiment 1) than in the Suffolk-cross lambs (experiment 2) rather than a difference between the kids in the two experiments. Additionally, in experiment 2, metabolic rate per unit live weight was significantly lower in the kids than in the lambs. No differences were apparent between the species in coat characters. Multiple-born lambs and kids were found to exhibit a significantly greater rate of decline in rectal temperature than singles, but only marginal differences in heat production were observed between the birth ranks. No significant effects of sex on resistance to cold stress were found in this study. Effects of birth rank and sex were additive with those of species. It is concluded that a combination of low heat production capacity and small body size is responsible for the generally poor responses of newborn kids to cold stress but there is probably little difference between lambs and kids in the insulative value of their birth coats.