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Freeman, David. "Essays on decision-making under risk." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/45361.
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Chapter 2 of this thesis studies the testable content of models of expectations-based reference-dependence. The main results of this chapter characterize a model based on Kőszegi and Rabin's (2006) preferred personal equilibrium. This model is shown to be behaviourally equivalent to a version of the shortlisting model of Manzini and Mariotti (2007) in environments without risk. Environments with risk motivate novel axioms that are conceptually consistent with expectations-based reference-dependence. These axioms are shown to behaviourally characterize a restricted version of the preferred personal equilibrium model of decision-making. Additional results characterize the choice behaviour of Kőszegi and Rabin's (2006, 2007) personal equilibrium and choice-acclimating personal equilibrium concepts.
In the presence of background risk and under the Reduction of Compound Lotteries axiom, non-expected utility preferences cannot capture descriptively reasonable risk aversion over small stakes without producing implausible risk aversion over large stakes (Safra and Segal 2008). Motivated by experimental evidence, Chapter 3 assumes that compound lotteries are evaluated recursively. The main results of this chapter show that non-expected utility theories generate 'as-if' narrow bracketing over small-stakes gambles despite defining utility over final wealth, and can be consistent with empirically reasonable risk aversion over both small and large stakes.
Chapter 4 uses list elicitation with varying probabilities to experimentally study choices between lotteries for a population of online workers. We document that list elicitation significantly diminishes risk aversion compared to binary choice elicitation. We show that this observation is consistent with a decision maker who has non-expected utility preferences, but when list elicitation is employed, reduces the compound lottery induced by her choices and the external randomization device used to determine payment. As a result, list elicitation distorts the inferences that can be drawn about non-expected utility preferences.
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Zhou, Wenting. "Experiments on decision-making under risk." Thesis, University of York, 2015. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/9044/.
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This thesis consists of three chapters. They are on three different topics, but they are related in the sense that they are concerned with decision-making under risk or uncertainty. In Chapter 1, we use an analogy of walking through fog to explain the problem under study. Fog has the property that vision becomes less and less clear the further ahead that you try to look, and after a certain distance you simply cannot see anything. In the experiment, the subject’s aim is to travel across the foggy and hilly terrain with minimum energy expenditure. This problem, although set in a non-economic context, obviously has relevance to many economic problems. Chapter 2 is about elicitation methods for discovering subjects’ risk preferences. The concern of the experiment is to compare four different methods used for eliciting the level of risk aversion. We carried out an experiment in four parts, corresponding to the four different methods and our methodology involves fitting four different preference functionals. Our results show that the inferred level of risk aversion is more sensitive to the elicitation method than to the assumed-true preference functional. Experimenters should worry most about context. Chapter 3 is about the interrelationship of decisions which come in a series. The validity of Random Lottery Incentive mechanism has been investigated in two main ways: first, just two decision problems, and second, many problems. This chapter combines and extends these two ways by investigating a cognitively less-demanding hypothesis than that all previous decisions are taken into account, but allows for an indirect effect of previous decisions on current ones. Reassuringly we find little effect and hence our results complement the previous evidence indicating that the Random Lottery Incentive mechanism is robust and can safely be used.
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Nieboer, Jeroen. "Essays on group decision making under risk." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2013. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/13385/.
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Economic theory traditionally explains choice under risk through the preferences of the individual, yet many important economic decisions are made by groups. To increase our understanding of the implications of group decisions and enrich our theories accordingly, we need empirical and experimental evidence on groups. Although economists have conducted controlled laboratory experiments on individual choice for many decades, only recently have researchers begun to use the experimental method to study group decisions under risk. This thesis contributes to the study of group decision making under risk by providing a cross-disciplinary review of the growing literature on this topic, followed by three experiments on risk-taking by groups. The first experiment investigates the role of communication and peer effects, the second experiment investigates group composition, and the final experiment focuses on information sharing in groups.
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Symmonds, M. "The neurobiology of decision making under risk." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2011. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1336527/.
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Risk is a highly salient psychological decision variable, and sensitivity to risk is an evolutionarily ancient attribute. In this thesis I address the neurobiological foundation of risk assessment, and show that behaviour is driven by an underlying distributed neural representation of different elements of risk in the brain. In particular, I show using fMRI (in Chapter 4) and MEG (in Chapter 8) that variance (dispersion) and skewness (asymmetry) of gambles evokes anatomically separable neural responses in a parietal, prefrontal and insula cortical network. I discuss possible theoretical neurobiological mechanisms by which preferences could be imbued to choice, and show that subjective tastes for risk, in terms of behavioural sensitivity to each of these risk dimensions, influences the encoding of risk and subsequent anticipatory responses. In Chapter 5, I show that a representation of prospective outcomes several trials into the future is supported by a dissociated encoding of the statistical information of future states in medial prefrontal cortex; furthermore that this encoding is contingent upon overarching goals or constraints. In Chapter 6, I demonstrate that economic choice is highly susceptible to exogenous biological influences, namely the effect of metabolic state, whilst in Chapter 7 I provide evidence that the encoding of risk is not affected by dopaminergic disruption, suggesting that dopamine might mediate effects on risk-taking via its role in reward feedback representation. In summary, the studies in this thesis elaborate the neural mechanisms underlying how humans make both single-shot and sequential decisions under risk, central elements in decision-making scenarios ranging from foraging to financial investment. This demonstrates that phylogenetically ancient circuitry subserving valuation and reward decompose choice into their salient statistical features, enabling the sophisticated representation of the future and its alternatives.
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Hunt, Laurence T. "Modelling human decision under risk and uncertainty." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:244ce799-7397-4698-8dac-c8ca5d0b3e28.
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Humans are unique in their ability to flexibly and rapidly adapt their behaviour and select courses of action that lead to future reward. Several ‘component processes’ must be implemented by the human brain in order to facilitate this behaviour. This thesis examines two such components; (i) the neural substrates supporting action selection during value- guided choice using magnetoencephalography (MEG), and (ii) learning the value of environmental stimuli and other people’s actions using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In both situations, it is helpful to formally model the underlying component process, as this generates predictions of trial-to-trial variability in the signal from a brain region involved in its implementation. In the case of value-guided action selection, a biophysically realistic implementation of a drift diffusion model is used. Using this model, it is predicted that there are specific times and frequency bands at which correlates of value are seen. Firstly, there are correlates of the overall value of the two presented options, and secondly the difference in value between the options. Both correlates should be observed in the local field potential, which is closely related to the signal measured using MEG. Importantly, the content of these predictions is quite distinct from the function of the model circuit, which is to transform inputs relating to the value of each option into a categorical decision. In the case of social learning, the same reinforcement learning model is used to track both the value of two stimuli that the subject can choose between, and the advice of a confederate who is playing alongside them. As the confederate advice is actually delivered by a computer, it is possible to keep prediction error and learning rate terms for stimuli and advice orthogonal to one another, and so look for neural correlates of both social and non-social learning in the same fMRI data. Correlates of intentional inference are found in a network of brain regions previously implicated in social cognition, notably the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, the right temporoparietal junction, and the anterior cingulate gyrus.
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Tarazona-Gomez, Marcela. "Decision-Making under Risk : Three Experimental Essays." Paris, EHESS, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007EHES0123.
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Utilisant la méthodologie expérimentale en laboratoire, cette thèse contribue au débat sur l'attitude des individus face au risque dans trois domaines : le premier essai présente les résultats d'une expérience destinée à éliciter la prudence et l'aversion au risque. Les réponses révèlent qu'une majorité des sujets sont prudents, et qu'une grande proportion sont à la fois averses au risque et prudents, sans que l'aversion au risque et le comportement de prudence soient corrélés. Le second essai analyse l'impact du risque sur la décision de financement d'un bien public. En théorie, les individus averses au risque devraient réduire leurs contributions en cas d'incertitude. Cette prédiction est vérifiée pour les économistes, mais pas pour les non économistes, qui au contraire augmentent leurs contributions. Dans le dernier essai, on analyse les préférences sociales, tant sur le risque individuel que sur le bien-être social. Nous trouvons que les attitudes sociales face au risque sont similaires aux attitudes individuellesUsing laboratory experiments as a tool, this dissertation contributes to the debate of decision making under risk three domains : The first essay presents the results of an experiment that elicits prudence and risk aversion. We find that the majority of subjects are prudent and that a big proportion is simultaneously prudent and risk averse, even if we find no correlation between prudence and risk aversion. The second essay investigates the effect of uncertainty on the decision to finance a public good. Our theoretical prediction is that risk adverse individuals will reduce their contributions to the production of a public good when facing more uncertainty. Results reveal that this prediction is confirmed but only for economists, and that non economists rather increase their contributions. In the last essay we elicit individual preferences over social risk. We analyze if these preferences are correlated with individual preferences over individual risk and over the well-being of others. We find that social risk attitudes closely approximate individual risk attitudes
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Liu, Yaxin. "Decision-Theoretic Planning under Risk-Sensitive Planning Objectives." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/6959.
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Risk attitudes are important for human decision making, especially in scenarios where huge wins or losses are possible, as exemplified by planetary rover navigation, oilspill response, and business applications. Decision-theoretic planners therefore need to take risk aspects into account to serve their users better. However, most existing decision-theoretic planners use simplistic planning objectives that are risk-neutral. The thesis research is the first comprehensive study of how to incorporate risk attitudes into decision-theoretic planners and solve large-scale planning problems represented as Markov decision process models. The thesis consists of three parts.
The first part of the thesis work studies risk-sensitive planning in case where exponential utility functions are used to model risk attitudes. I show that existing decision-theoretic planners can be transformed to take risk attitudes into account. Moreover, different versions of the transformation are needed if the transition probabilities are implicitly given, namely, temporally extended probabilities and probabilities given in a factored form.
The second part of the thesis work studies risk-sensitive planning in case where general nonlinear utility functions are used to model risk attitudes. I show that a state-augmentation approach can be used to reduce a risk-sensitive planning problem to a risk-neutral planning problem with an augmented state space. I further use a functional interpretation of value functions and approximation methods to solve the planning problems efficiently with value iteration. I also show an exact method for solving risk-sensitive planning problems where one-switch utility functions are used to model risk attitudes.
The third part of the thesis work studies risk sensitive planning in case where arbitrary rewards are used. I propose a spectrum of conditions that can be used to constrain the utility function and the planning problem so that the optimal expected utilities exist and are finite. I prove that the existence and finiteness properties hold for stationary plans, where the action to perform in each state does not change over time, under different sets of conditions.
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Edgar, John. "A system for qualitative decision making under risk." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0028/MQ51337.pdf.
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Wengström, Erik. "Communication in games and decision making under risk /." Lund: Univ., Dep. of Economics, 2007. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/561390584.pdf.
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Davidson, Erick. "Market and professional decision-making under risk and uncertainty." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1196261774.
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Kusev, Petko Ivaylov. "Protective Decision-Making under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty." Thesis, Teesside University, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.517578.
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Rudisill, A. Caroline. "Decision-making under risk : the case of adolescent smoking." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2009. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/2190/.
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This thesis examines decision-making about risks under conditions of uncertainty. Research specifically studies adolescents and smoking to uncover which information sources play influential roles in forming smoking risk perceptions. Findings aim to offer policy-related, theoretical and methodological meaning This study looks at two key issues. First, it links risk perceptions to smoking decisions to highlight the motivation for understanding the predictors of risk perceptions. Second, research investigates how individuals use information sources (ex. parents, doctors, peers, health warning messages) employing a Bayesian decision-making model. This thesis performs empirical analysis using The Canadian Youth Smoking Survey (2002) (19,018 respondents, 10-15 years) and The U.S. National Survey on Drug Use and Health (2004) (18,294 respondents, 12-17 years). Across both datasets, adolescents' risk perceptions and likelihood of having never smoking a cigarette were found to be positively related. However, smoking behaviors were never found to significantly predict risk perceptions once controlling for endogeneity between risk perceptions and behaviors. This suggests that adolescents rely on exogenous information sources about smoking risks rather than personal experiences to form perceptions of smoking risks. From a policy perspective, medical professionals talking with adolescent patients about smoking, parents' smoking, societal smoking prevalence (more than peers' smoking), awareness of tobacco package warning labels and knowledge of school smoking rules (but not the rules themselves) were found to predict adolescents' risk perceptions. From a theoretical perspective, this thesis alters the Bayesian model to include environmental and social effects. It also finds support for the role of affect heuristics in decision making involving risks. Findings also point to evidence of principal-agency relationships between medical professionals and adolescents. Analysis also highlights how spatial proximity impacts the credibility adolescents attach to behavioral examples and opinions regarding smoking. From a methodological standpoint, evidence suggests that adolescents' expressions of their assessment of risk depend upon elicitation methodology used and that work focusing on predictors of risk perceptions should include direct (ex. parents discussing risks) and indirect (ex. societal smoking prevalence) sources of information.
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Studer, Bettina. "Understanding risky choice : the psychophysiological and neural correlates of human decision-making under risk." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.610278.
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Lu, Fadian. "Optimization of forest management decision making under conditions of risk /." Umeå : Dept. of Forest Economics, Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, 2004. http://epsilon.slu.se/s333.pdf.
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Mishra, Sandeep, and University of Lethbridge Faculty of Arts and Science. "The motivational effect of need on decision-making under risk." Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Dept. of Psychology, c2010, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/2580.
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Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision-makers shift from risk-aversion to riskpreference
in situations where low-risk options are unlikely to meet their needs. Risksensitive
theory is contrasted with more traditional unbounded models of decision-making
predicting that decision-makers seek to optimize utility in all decisions. In this dissertation, I
review influential theories of decision-making from the various behavioral sciences, and offer
an integrated approach to understanding decision-making informed by evolutionary theory. I
then present evidence suggesting that risk-taking comprises a general phenomenon, inclusive
of such behaviors as gambling and antisocial conduct. Finally, I demonstrate in several
laboratory experiments that conditions of need, such as inequality, are important motivators
of risky behavior. Together, the results suggest that risk-taking represents a functional
triggering of preference for variable outcomes in response to conditions of need, consistent
with risk-sensitivity theory.xiv, 149 leaves ; 29 cm
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Garcia, Thomas. "A behavioral approach of decision making under risk and uncertainty." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2019. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/132313/1/Thomas%20Jean-Christophe%20Lucien_Garcia_Thesis.pdf.
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This thesis investigates how individuals make decisions under risk and uncertainty. It is composed of four essays that theoretically and experimentally investigate decision-making. First, I study situations where individuals must decide whether an event has occurred using uncertain evidence. I highlight that individuals tend to maximize accuracy instead of maximizing expected payoffs. I find that it is partially due to the existence of a value of being right and a recency bias. Second, I study how ambiguity on the costs or the benefits of a donation affects donation behavior. I show that individuals use ambiguity strategically as an excuse to behave less generously without feeling guilty. Finally, I study the external validity of risk preference measures based on a representative panel of the Dutch population. I find that risk-preference measures are related to behavior in experimental risk tasks, however they are not related to risk-taking in the field.
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Garcia, Thomas. "A behavioral approach of decision making under risk and uncertainty." Thesis, Lyon, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LYSE2042/document.
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Cette thèse porte sur la façon dont les individus prennent des décisions en présence de risque et d'incertitude. Elle est composée de quatre essais qui étudient théoriquement et expérimentalement la prise de décision.Les deux premiers essais étudient des situations où un décideur doit décider si un événement a eu lieu en utilisant des informations incertaines. Le fait d'identifier correctement que cet événement s'est produit est plus rémunéré que le fait d'identifier correctement qu'il ne s'est pas produit. Ce problème de décision induit une divergence entre deux qualités d'une décision : l'optimalité et l'exactitude. Les deux essais reproduisent de telles situations dans une expérience de laboratoire basée sur des tâches perceptuelles et analysent les décisions en utilisant la théorie de la détection du signal pour étudier l'arbitrage optimalité-exactitude. Le premier essai confirme l'existence d'un tel arbitrage avec un rôle dominant de la recherche de l'exactitude. Il explique l'existence de cet arbitrage par utilité non-monétaire associée au fait d'avoir raison. Le deuxième chapitre montre que présenter les informations perceptuelles en dernier contribue à l'existence de l'arbitrage optimalité-exactitude.Le troisième essai étudie comment les préférences vie-à-vie d'autrui interagissent avec l'attitude face à l'ambiguïté. Il présente les résultats d'une expérience où les sujets doivent faire des dons à des associations caritatives. Les dons peuvent avoir des coûts ou des bénéfices ambigus. Nous constatons que l'ambiguïté a pour effet de rendre les individus plus égoïstes. En d'autres termes, nous montrons que les individus utilisent l'ambiguïté comme une excuse pour ne pas donner. Ce comportement d’auto-justification est plus marqué pour les coûts ambigus que pour les avantages ambigus.Le quatrième essai examine la validité externe des mesures de préférence pour le risque en laboratoire en utilisant des décisions dans d'autres tâches expérimentales risquées et des décisions prisent sur en dehors du laboratoire. Nous constatons que les mesures de préférence pour le risque permettent d'expliquer les premières, mais qu'elles n'expliquent pas les secondesThis thesis investigates how individuals make decisions under risk and uncertainty. It is composed of four essays that theoretically and experimentally investigate decision-making.The first two essays study situations where a decision maker has to decide whether an event has occurred using uncertain evidence. Accurately identifying that this event has occurred is more rewarded than accurately identifying that it has not occurred. This decision problem induces a divergence between two qualities of a decision: optimality and accuracy. Both essays reproduce such situations in a laboratory experiment based on perceptual tasks and analyze behavior using Signal Detection Theory to study the optimality-accuracy trade-off. The first essay confirms the existence of the trade-off with a leading role of accuracy. It explains the trade-off by the concern of individuals for being right. The second chapter finds that presenting perceptual evidence last contributes to the existence of the optimality-accuracy trade-off.The third essay studies how other-regarding preferences interact with attitude toward ambiguity. It reports the results of an experiment where subjects have to make donations to charities. Donations may have either ambiguous costs or ambiguous benefits. We find that other-regarding preferences are decreased under ambiguity. In other terms, we highlight that individual use ambiguity has an excuse not to give. This excuse-driven behavior is stronger for ambiguous costs than ambiguous benefits.The fourth essay challenges the external validity of laboratory risk preference measures using behavior in experimental risk tasks and naturally occurring behavior under risk. We find that risk preference measures are related with the former but that they fail to explain the latter
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Voßmann, Frank. "Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty : measurement and decomposition /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2004. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/490610218.pdf.
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Vernersson, Anton. "On Probabilities and Value : A study of decision-making under risk." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-108008.
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Laban, Joanne. "The influence of culture on decision making under risk and uncertainty." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10871/16052.
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I investigate how culture affects decision making under risk and uncertainty through three main strands - social networks, cultural norms and identity, and peer effects. Firstly, I investigate whether students from collectivist cultures form larger networks at university than students from individualist cultures and to what extent these networks are relied on for risk-sharing. Using an online survey, I find that students from collectivist cultures such as China form larger financial risk-sharing networks at university than students from individualist cultures such as Britain. In the financial context, having a larger network increases the willingness to take risks for collectivists but not individualists. On the other hand, students from collectivist cultures are less willing to take risks with their interpersonal relationships than those from individualist cultures. One likely reason for this is that as networks are relied on more for risk-sharing in collectivist cultures, the value of maintaining relationships is increased. Secondly, I run experiments with a stag hunt and bargaining coordination game to see whether cultural norms or identity play a part in coordination decisions. Using a between-subjects design, I vary the identity of the opponent between someone of the same culture or a different culture. I compare the responses of British and Asian students and show the cultural identity of the opponent by physical appearance. The players appear to use cultural stereotypes to predict behaviour, especially in the bargaining game which may require more strategic thought than the stag hunt game. Finally, I investigate cultural differences in conformity in the context of risk attitudes. I expect that people from cultures that value conformity, such as collectivist East Asian cultures, will be more likely to conform to others than people from cultures that value individuality, such as the United Kingdom. My experiment consists of lottery choice tasks, where some students are given information on the choices from a previous session. Again, comparing Asian and British students, I find no difference in the distribution of Asian choices between treatments. However, the British students are inclined to choose against the majority of their peers. This behaviour is consistent with an individualist culture that places value on uniqueness.
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Ferranna, Maddalena. "Three Essays on the Decision Making under Risk and Equity Concerns." Thesis, Toulouse 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015TOU10057/document.
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Jagelka, Tomáš. "Preferences, Ability, and Personality : Understanding Decision-making Under Risk and Delay." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019SACLX028/document.
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Les préférences, les aptitudes et la personnalité prédisent un large éventail de réalisations économiques. Je les mets en correspondance dans un cadre structurel de prise de décision en utilisant des données expérimentales uniques collectées sur plus de 1 200 personnes prenant chacune plus de 100 décisions à enjeu financier.J’estime conjointement les distributions des préférences pour le risque et le temps dans la population, leur stabilité au niveau individuel et la tendance des gens à faire des erreurs. J’utilise le modèle à préférences aléatoires (RPM) dont il a été récemment démontré que ses propriétés théoriques sont supérieures à celles des modèles précédemment employés. Je montre que le RPM a une forte validité interne. Les cinq paramètres structurels estimés dominent un large éventail de variables démographiques et socio-économiques lorsqu'il s'agit d'expliquer des choix individuels observés.Je démontre l’importance économique et économétrique de l’utilisation des chocs aux préférences et de l’incorporation du paramètre dit de « la main tremblante ». Les erreurs et l’instabilité des préférences sont liées à des capacités différentes. Je propose un indice de rationalité qui les condense en un indicateur unique prédictif des pertes de bien-être.J'utilise un modèle à facteurs pour extraire la capacité cognitive et les « Big Five » traits de la personnalité à partir de nombreuses mesures. Ils expliquent jusqu’à 50% de la variation des préférences des gens et de leur capacité à faire des choix rationnels. La conscienciosité explique à elle seule 45% et 10% de la variation transversale du taux d'actualisation et de l'aversion au risque, ainsi que 20% de la variation de leur stabilité individuelle. En outre, l'aversion au risque est liée à l'extraversion et les erreurs dépendent des capacités cognitives, de l’effort, et des paramètres des tâches. Les préférences sont stables pour l'individu médian. Néanmoins, une partie de la population a une certaine instabilité des préférences qui est indicative d’une connaissance de soi imparfaite.Ces résultats ont des implications à la fois pour la spécification des modèles économiques de forme réduite et structurels, et aussi pour l’explication des inégalités et de la transmission intergénérationnelle du statut socio-économiquePreferences, ability, and personality predict a wide range of economic outcomes. I establish a mapping between them in a structural framework of decision-making under risk and delay using unique experimental data with information on over 100 incentivized choice tasks for each of more than 1,200 individuals.I jointly estimate population distributions of risk and time preferences complete with their individual-level stability and of people’s propensity to make mistakes. I am the first to do so using the Random Preference Model (RPM) which has been recently shown to have desirable theoretical properties over previously used frameworks. I show that the RPM has high internal validity. The five estimated structural parameters largely dominate a wide range of demographic and socio-economic variables when it comes to explaining observed individual choices between risky lotteries and time-separated payments.I demonstrate the economic and econometric significance of appending shocks directly to preferences and of incorporating the trembling hand parameter - their necessary complement in this framework. Mistakes and preference instability are not only separately identified but they are also linked to different cognitive and non-cognitive skills. I propose a Rationality Index which condenses them into a single indicator predictive of welfare loss.I use a factor model to extract cognitive ability and Big Five personality traits from noisy measures. They explain up to 50% of the variation in both average preferences and in individuals’ capacity to make consistent rational choices. Conscientiousness explains 45% and 10% respectively of the cross-sectional variation discount rates and risk aversion respectively as well as 20% of the variation in their individual-level stability. Furthermore, risk aversion is related to extraversion and mistakes are a function of cognitive ability, task design, and of effort. Preferences are stable for the median individual. Nevertheless, a part of the population exhibits some degree of preference instability consistent with imperfect self-knowledge.These results have implications both for specifying reduced form and structural economic models, and for explaining inequality and the inter-generational transmission of socioeconomic status
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Martinez-Correa, Jimmy. "Decisions under Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: Theory and Experiments." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2012. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/rmi_diss/29.
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I combine theory, experiments and econometrics to undertake the task of disentangling the subtleties and implications of the distinction between risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. One general conclusion is that the elements of this methodological trilogy are not equally advanced. For example, new experimental tools must be developed to adequately test the predictions of theory. My dissertation is an example of this dynamic between theoretical and applied economics.
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Sun, Si'ao. "Decision-making under uncertainty : optimal storm sewer network design considering flood risk." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/112863.
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Storm sewer systems play a very important role in urban areas. The design of a storm sewer system should be based on an appropriate level of preventing flooding. This thesis focuses on issues relevant to decision-making in storm sewer network design considering flood risk. Uncertainty analysis is often required in an integrated approach to a comprehensive assessment of flood risk. The first part of this thesis discusses the understanding and representation of uncertainty in general setting. It also develops methods for propagating uncertainty through a model under different situations when uncertainties are represented by various mathematical languages. The decision-making process for storm sewer network design considering flood risk is explored in this thesis. The pipe sizes and slopes of the network are determined for the design. Due to the uncertain character of the flood risk, the decision made is not unique but depends on the decision maker’s attitude towards risk. A flood risk based storm sewer network design method incorporating a multiple-objective optimization and a “choice” process is developed with different design criteria. The storm sewer network design considering flood risk can also be formed as a single-objective optimization provided that the decision criterion is given a priori. A framework for this approach with a single objective optimization is developed. The GA is adapted as the optimizer. The flood risk is evaluated with different methods either under several design storms or using sampling method. A method for generating samples represented by correlated variables is introduced. It is adapted from a literature method providing that the marginal distributions of variables as well as the correlations between them are known. The group method is developed aiming to facilitate the generation of correlated samples of large sizes. The method is successfully applied to the generation of rainfall event samples and the samples are used for storm sewer network design where the flood risk is evaluated with rainfall event samples.
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Carbone, Enrica. "Preference functionals and stochastic specifications : investigations into individual decision making under risk." Thesis, University of York, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.288067.
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Werner, Katarzyna Maria. "Essays on non-expected utility theory and individual decision making under risk." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2015. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/essays-on-nonexpected-utility-theory-and-individual-decision-making-under-risk(e73bd3eb-8031-45f9-b34d-e5e9edb78e03).html.
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This thesis investigates the choices under risk in the framework of non-expected utility theories. One of the key contributions of this thesis is providing an approach that allows for a complete characterisation of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences without prior knowledge of the reference point. The location of the reference point that separates gains from losses is derived endogenously, thus, without any additional assumptions on the decision makers risk behaviour. This is different to the convention used in the literature, according to which, the reference point is preselected. The problem arising from imposing the location of the reference point is that the underlying preference conditions might not be alligned with the predictions made by the model. Consequently, it is difficult to verify such a model or to test it empirically. The present contribution offers a set of normatively and descriptively appealing preference conditions, which enable the elicitation of the reference point from the decision makers behaviour. Since these conditions are derived using objective probabilities, they can also be applied to settings such as health or insurance, where the continuity of the utility function is not required. As a result, the obtained representation theorem is not only the most general foundation for CPT currently available, but it also provides further support for the use of CPT as a modelling tool in decision theory and fi
nance. Another contribution that this thesis can be credited with is an application of rank-dependent utility theory (RDU) to the problem of insurance demand in the monopoly market affected by adverse selection. The present approach extends the classical model of Stiglitz (1977) by accounting for an additional component of heterogeneity among consumers, the heterogeneity in risk perception. Speci
fically, consumers employ distinctive probability weighting functions to assess the likelihood of risky events. This aspect of consumers' behaviour highlights the importance that the probabilistic risk attitudes within the RDU framework, such as optimism and pessimism, have for the choice of insurance contract. The analysis yields a separating equilibrium, with full insurance for a sufficiently pessimistic decision maker. An important implication of this result is that any low-risk individual who sufficiently overestimates his probability of loss will induce the uninformed insurer to o¤er him full coverage, thereby, affecting the high-risk type adversely. This outcome is consistent with the recent empirical puzzle regarding the correlation between ex-post risk and insurance coverage, according to which, agents with low exposure to risk receive a larger amount of compensation. By providing an explanation of this pattern of individual behaviour, the current work demonstrates that theory and practice of insurance demand can be reconciled to a greater extent. The paper also provides a behavioural rationale for policy intervention in the market with RDU agents, where the initial distortions in contracts due to unobservable risks are aggravated by the non-linear weighting of probability of a risky event.
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Schulreich, Stefan [Verfasser]. "The Influence of Incidental Emotions on Decision Making Under Risk / Stefan Schulreich." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1141678373/34.
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Haynes, Michael Ryan. "Dissociating the valence-dependent neural and genetic contributions to decision making under risk." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.610826.
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Nordahl, Per. "Attitudes to decision-making under risk supported by artificial intelligence and humans : Perceived risk, reliability and acceptance." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för Industriell utveckling, IT och Samhällsbyggnad, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-29384.
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The purpose of this investigation was to explore how decision situations with varying degrees of perceived risk affect people’s attitudes to human and artificial intelligence (AI) decision-making support. While previous studies have focused on the trust, fairness, reliability and fear of artificial intelligence, robots and algorithms in relation to decision support, the risk inherent in the decision situation has been largely ignored. An online survey with a mixed approach was conducted to investigate artificial intelligence and human decision support in risky situations. Two scenarios were presented to the survey participants. In the scenario where the perceived situational risk was low, selecting a restaurant, people expressed a positive attitude towards relying on and accepting recommendations provided by an AI. In contrast, in the perceived high-risk scenario, purchasing a home, people expressed an equal reluctance to rely on or accept both AI and human recommendations. The limitations of this investigation are primarily related to the challenges of creating a common understanding of concepts such as AI and a relatively homogenous survey group. The implication of this study is that AI may currently be best applied to situations characterized by perceived low risk if the intention is to convince people to rely on and accept AI recommendations, and in the future if AI becomes autonomous, to accept decisions.
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Hollmann, Dominik. "Supply chain network design under uncertainty and risk." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6407.
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We consider the research problem of quantitative support for decision making in supply chain network design (SCND). We first identify the requirements for a comprehensive SCND as (i) a methodology to select uncertainties, (ii) a stochastic optimisation model, and (iii) an appropriate solution algorithm. We propose a process to select a manageable number of uncertainties to be included in a stochastic program for SCND. We develop a comprehensive two-stage stochastic program for SCND that includes uncertainty in demand, currency exchange rates, labour costs, productivity, supplier costs, and transport costs. Also, we consider conditional value at risk (CV@R) to explore the trade-off between risk and return. We use a scenario generator based on moment matching to represent the multivariate uncertainty. The resulting stochastic integer program is computationally challenging and we propose a novel iterative solution algorithm called adaptive scenario refinement (ASR) to process the problem. We describe the rationale underlying ASR, validate it for a set of benchmark problems, and discuss the benefits of the algorithm applied to our SCND problem. Finally, we demonstrate the benefits of the proposed model in a case study and show that multiple sources of uncertainty and risk are important to consider in the SCND. Whereas in the literature most research is on demand uncertainty, our study suggests that exchange rate uncertainty is more important for the choice of optimal supply chain strategies in international production networks. The SCND model and the use of the coherent downside risk measure in the stochastic program are innovative and novel; these and the ASR solution algorithm taken together make contributions to knowledge.
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Bernhardt, A. J. "The effects of background risk on decision-making under uncertainty : an empirical investigation." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.596591.
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Do background risks encourage, inhibit, or have no effect on risk-taking? Uninsurable background risks are an unavoidable fact of life, yet many models of decision-making fail to incorporate the potential effects of these risks on preferences and choice. Properties of “proper” or “standard” risk aversion exhibited by many common utility functions imply that background risks serve to inhibit risk-taking. I offer an opposing view. By applying the psychological concept of “diminishing sensitivity” to perceptions of risk, I argue that increased levels of background risk can serve to reduce sensitivity to a given incremental risk. Adopting a reference-based risk-return framework, I then argue that this reduced sensitivity to risk will led to diminished risk aversion and stimulate greater risk-taking behaviour. Using multiple research methods, I collect and present empirical evidence to support this thesis. Firstly, the results of two lab studies of MBA students demonstrate the thesis in a controlled experimental setting. Secondly, analysis of cross-sectional, time-series data on the in-licensing behaviour of a sample panel of pharmaceutical firms during 1988-2004 provides additional evidence of the thesis in a real-world setting. The findings contradict prevailing economic theories of background risk and have broad implications for research on decision-making, as well as practical implications for individuals, firms, and policy-makers.
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Oganian, Yulia [Verfasser]. "Cognitive and neural mechanisms of bilingual decision making: From visual word processing to decisions under risk / Yulia Oganian." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1081660139/34.
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Fisher, Elizabeth Charlotte. "Risk, expertise and judicial review : scope of review and decision making under scientific uncertainty." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1998. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1a252259-a017-4568-a31d-3a94837e5bfe.
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Judicial review of risk regulation rule making in the United States has been a highly controversial area of administrative law. How a court should substantively review expert decision makers acting under scientific uncertainty is by no means clear. While there has been much criticism, few answers have been forthcoming, and the present approach taken by the courts has led to ossification of the rule making process. While risk regulation may seem the product of late twentieth century America, courts in carrying out judicial review have been tackling the problems created by expertise and scientific uncertainty since at least the turn of the century. The courts' approach in applying such scope of review standards as the substantial evidence and arbitrary and capricious tests has been largely determined by their understanding of what is an expert administrative agency. Two models of administrative expertise can be identified - the deliberative and the rationalist. The rationalist expert agency is defined as an analytical fact finder which does not stray outside precise legislative boundaries. In contrast the deliberative expert agency is a complex problem solver in the public interest. It engages in deliberation informed by analysis to solve problems identified by Congress. Through an examination of the impact of these models on scope of review doctrine an appreciation can be gained of why judicial review is presently carried out the way it is and how it can be reformed. In the early half of this century, scope of review doctrine was underpinned by the deliberative model. With the creation of the risk regulatory agencies in the early 1970s there was much confusion over both the role of these new agencies and how the courts should review their decisions. Due to a number of circumstances, both internal and external to risk regulation, judicial review was by 1980 underpinned by the rationalist paradigm. Influential factors included: growing distrust of public administration, hard look review, debates about administrative procedure, and legislative ambiguity. It is argued that the rationalist model is at odds with the task of risk regulators and what is expected of them. It is the rationalist paradigm rather than judicial review per se which has led to the problems of ossification. The deliberative paradigm can and should be the basis for effective judicial review and this is illustrated with a mock judgement.
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Meraner, Manuela [Verfasser]. "Decision making under risk in agriculture : An experimental and survey based analysis / Manuela Meraner." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1150182970/34.
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Chronopoulos, M. "Investment decision making under uncertainty : the impact of risk aversion, operational flexibility, and competition." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2011. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1324523/.
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Traditional real options analysis addresses investment under uncertainty assuming a risk-neutral decision maker and complete markets. In reality, however, decision makers are often risk averse and markets are incomplete. Additionally, capital projects are seldom now-or-never investments and can be abandoned, suspended, and resumed at any time. In this thesis, we develop a utility-based framework in order to examine the impact of operational flexibility, via suspension and resumption options, on optimal investment policies and option values. Assuming a risk-averse decision maker with perpetual options to suspend and resume a project costlessly, we confirm that risk aversion lowers the probability of investment and demonstrate how this effect can be mitigated by incorporating operational flexibility. Also, we illustrate how increased risk aversion may facilitate the abandonment of a project while delaying its temporary suspension prior to permanent resumption. Besides timing, a firm may have the freedom to scale the investment’s installed capacity. We extend the traditional real options approach to investment under uncertainty with discretion over capacity by allowing for a constant relative risk aversion utility function and operational flexibility in the form of suspension and resumption options. We find that, with the option to delay investment, increased risk aversion facilitates investment and decreases the required investment threshold price by reducing the amount of installed capacity. We explore strategic aspects of decision making under uncertainty by examining how duopolistic competition affects the entry decisions of risk-averse investors. Depending on the discrepancy between the market share of the leader and the follower, greater uncertainty may increase or decrease the discrepancy in the non-pre-emptive leader’s relative value. Furthermore, risk aversion does not affect the loss in the value of the leader for the pre-emptive duopoly setting, but it makes the loss in value relatively less for the leader in a non-preemptive duopoly setting.
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Zilker, Veronika [Verfasser]. "Measuring and Modeling the Construction of Preferences in Decision Making under Risk / Veronika Zilker." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1216878145/34.
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Marsh, Barnaby. "Making the best choice : judgement and strategic decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.311983.
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Sejdiu, Vulnet [Verfasser]. "Paradoxes, prices, and preferences : essays on decision making under risk and economic outcomes / Vulnet Sejdiu." Hannover : Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1204459576/34.
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Maricar, Noor M. "Efficient Resource Development in Electric Utilities Planning Under Uncertainty." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/11258.
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The thesis aims to introduce an efficient resource development strategy in electric utility long term planning under uncertainty considerations. In recent years, electric utilities have recognized the concepts of robustness, flexibility, and risk exposure, to be considered in their resource development strategy. The concept of robustness means to develop resource plans that can perform well for most, if not all futures, while flexibility is to allow inexpensive changes to be made if the future conditions deviate from the base assumptions. A risk exposure concept is used to quantify the risk hazards in planning alternatives for different kinds of future conditions.
This study focuses on two technical issues identified to be important to the process of efficient resource development: decision-making analysis considering robustness and flexibility, and decision-making analysis considering risk exposure. The technique combines probabilistic methods and tradeoff analysis, thereby producing a decision set analysis concept to determine robustness that includes flexibility measures. In addition, risk impact analysis is incorporated to identify the risk exposure in planning alternatives. Contributions of the work are summarized as follows. First, an efficient resource development framework for planning under uncertainty is developed that combines features of utility function, tradeoff analysis, and the analytical hierarchy process, incorporating a performance evaluation approach. Second, the multi-attribute risk-impact analysis method is investigated to handle the risk hazards exposed in power system resource planning. Third, the penetration levels of wind and photovoltaic generation technologies into the total generation system mix, with their constraints, are determined using the decision-making model. The results from two case studies show the benefits of the proposed framework by offering the decision makers various options for lower cost, lower emission, better reliability, and higher efficiency plans.Ph. D.
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Reina, Livia. "From Subjective Expected Utility Theory to Bounded Rationality: An Experimental Investigation on Categorization Processes in Integrative Negotiation, in Committees' Decision Making and in Decisions under Risk." Doctoral thesis, Technische Universität Dresden, 2005. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A24667.
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As mentioned in the introduction, the objective of this work has been to get a more realistic understanding of economic decision making processes by adopting an interdisciplinary approach which takes into consideration at the same time economic and psychological issues. The research in particular has been focused on the psychological concept of categorization, which in the standard economic theory has received until now no attention, and on its implications for decision making. The three experimental studies conducted in this work provide empirical evidence that individuals don not behave according to the perfect rationality and maximization assumptions which underly the SEUT, but rather as bounded rational satisfiers who try to simplify the decision problems they face through the process of categorization. The results of the first experimental study, on bilateral integrative negotiation, show that most of the people categorize a continuum of outcomes in two categories (satisfying/not satisfying), and treat all the options within each category as equivalent. This process of categorization leads the negotiators to make suboptimal agreements and to what I call the ?Zone of Agreement Bias? (ZAB). The experimental study on committees? decision making with logrolling provides evidence of how the categorization of outcomes in satisfying/not satisfying can affect the process of coalition formation in multi-issue decisions. In the first experiment, involving 3-issues and 3-parties decisions under majority rule, the categorization of outcomes leads most of the individuals to form suboptimal coalitions and make Pareto-dominated agreements. The second experiment, aimed at comparing the suboptimizing effect of categorization under majority and unanimity rule, shows that the unanimity rule can lead to a much higher rate of optimal agreements than the majority rule. The third experiment, involving 4-issues and 4-parties decisions provides evidence that the results of experiments 1 and 2 hold even when the level of complexity of the decision problem increases.
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Kingsborough, Ashley. "Urban climate change adaptation pathways for short to long term decision-making." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f6eda340-2699-4a0d-9920-7464f524a73a.
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Climate resilience is increasingly an attribute of competitive global cities. Cities that are most responsive to change will continue to prosper. To achieve this, governance structures and decision-making approaches that promote flexible and/or robust adaptation action are required. This thesis introduces a framework for urban adaptation planning that links medium-term risk management with the development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways. A long-term plan informed by the appraisal of a range of plausible pathways provides the opportunity to retain the flexibility to respond to future uncertainties, whilst also demonstrating how a city could manage future climate risk. This provides stakeholders with confidence that long-term risk is adequately considered, even if there is not a need to act immediately. To demonstrate how adaptation pathways can support adaptation decision-making in an urban system, the approach and methods developed as part of this thesis are applied in London. Adaptation pathways in response to water scarcity, surface water flood and heat risk were developed, and their appraisal presented as pathways diagrams. These diagrams provide a visual representation of the sequencing of decision points and plausible adaptation actions that may be implemented in the future. Pathways diagrams present climate risk and adaptation information for decision-makers in a salient and actionable manner. The pathways responding to individual risks in London are then brought together to demonstrate how an integrated assessment framework may be used to appraise city-scale adaptation pathways that respond to multiple climate risks. The growing emphasis within adaptation planning on approaches that can react flexibly to change increases the need to better understand the dynamics of climate risk and embed learning about the effectiveness of adaptation actions. To complement the pathways and adaptation decision-making research presented in this thesis, a framework that links adaptation monitoring and evaluation (M&E), risk assessment and decision-making is presented and explored to highlight the potential benefits of, and mechanisms for, adaptation M&E to inform and strengthen iterative risk-based adaptation planning. Demonstrated for the Thames Estuary, where concepts of adaptation planning have been pioneered but the opportunities of linking to monitoring and evaluation have not been extensively explored, we show how the framework can highlight actions and factors that are contributing to improving adaptation outcomes and those that require strengthening. This thesis contributes to the literature on urban climate change adaptation planning under conditions of uncertainty. This thesis also contributes to the evidence base needed to justify long-term planning and realise the benefits of climate risk reduction through the implementation of flexible, long-term integrated urban adaptation plans.
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Levin, Rikard. "Uncertainty in risk assessment : contents and modes of communication." Licentiate thesis, Stockholm : Kungliga Tekniska högskolan, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-473.
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Rahimian, Hamed. "Risk-Averse and Distributionally Robust Optimization:Methodology and Applications." The Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531822931371766.
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Yang, Yi. "Gains and losses in the eyes of the beholder: a comparative study of foreign policy decision making under risk." Texas A&M University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/3078.
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Prospect theory is a descriptive model of individual decision-making under risk (Kahneman and Tversky 1979). The central tenet of prospect theory posits that the risk orientation of decision-makers is affected by the gains vs. losses domains in which they are situated. Individuals are predicted to be risk-averse in the domain of gains and risk seeking in the domain of losses. Although prospect theory made significant contributions to decision theory, it has important limitations. Foremost, as noted by Levy (1997a), prospect theory is not a complete theory of decision-making. Like rational choice theory, prospect theory attempts to explain choices or outcomes, not the processes through which those choices come about (Abelson and Levi 1985, 235).
In response to this limitation of prospect theory, this dissertation intends to address the following set of puzzles:
Do gains vs. losses domains affect the decision processes in foreign policy decision making? If so, in what way will decision strategies change? That is, what strategies are most likely to be employed when the decision maker is in the domain of gains? And, in contrast, what strategies are the most likely to be utilized when the decision maker is in the domain of losses?
To address these questions, I develop and extend prospect theory to account for the impact of gains vs. losses domains on decision strategy selections by decision makers under risk. A set of testable hypotheses are then derived.
To render a robust test of these hypotheses, I employ a cross-national experimental research design, utilizing American subjects first and then replicating the same experiment with subjects in mainland China. In terms of research instrument, I utilize the computerized decision process tracer  the Decision Board Platform. Specifically, the Âmoves of decision makers are recorded by the Decision Board and then used to identify choices and to infer specific decision strategies.
Statistical analysis of the experimental results demonstrates support for the major hypotheses. A decision maker in the domain of gains is more likely to employ a holistic, alternative-based, compensatory, and maximizing decision strategy than is a decision maker in the domain of losses.
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Goebes, Laura [Verfasser], and K. M. [Akademischer Betreuer] Ehrhart. "A Better Understanding of Decision Making under Risk - An Interdisciplinary Approach / Laura Goebes ; Betreuer: K.-M. Ehrhart." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1138708712/34.
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Teubner, Timm [Verfasser], and C. [Akademischer Betreuer] Weinhardt. "Social Preferences under Risk - Peer Types and Relationships in Economic Decision Making / Timm Teubner. Betreuer: C. Weinhardt." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1045933910/34.
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Harris, Alexander Nicholas Edward. "Preferences and cooperation." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2019. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/287933.
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Chapter 1: Evolution of reciprocator preferences when agents can pay for information. A benchmark result in the evolutionary games literature is that a preference for reciprocity will evolve if preferences are observable (at zero cost), since reciprocators can cooperate with each other rather than with materialists, thereby achieving a fitness advantage. I investigate how a preference for reciprocity evolves if individuals can observe an opponent's preferences only by bearing a fitness cost. My main result applies when observing an opponent's type is cheap, but cooperating only gives a modest fitness advantage or the preference for reciprocity is intense. In this case, a preference for reciprocity cannot evolve from a small starting share in the mix of preferences, even if discovering an opponent's preferences is arbitrarily cheap. This is in sharp contrast to the benchmark result. Chapter 2: A theory of conditional cooperation on networks (with Julien Gagnon) Chapter 2 is a study of reciprocity on social networks. We model a group of connected agents who play a one-shot public good game. Some players are materialists and others are reciprocators. We characterise the maximal Nash equilibrium (ME) of this game for any network and a broad class of reciprocal preferences. At the ME, a novel concept, the q-linked set, fully determines the set of players who contribute. We show that influential players are those connected to players who are sufficiently interconnected, but not too much. Finally, we study the decision of a planner faced with an uncertain type profile who designs the network to maximise expected contributions. The ex ante optimal network comprises isolated cliques of degree k*, with k* decreasing with the incidence of materialists. We discuss an important application of our results: the workplace. Chapter 3: Ideological games Chapter 3 is a theory of ideology. I define a preference type to be a set of first-order preferences over the outcomes of a `game of life', together with a set of (`meta-') preferences over all players' first-order preferences. Players can influence each other's preferences via costly investment: if player A invests and B does not, B's preferences becomes those of A. Players may invest for instrumental reasons (i.e. to achieve better outcomes in the game of life) or `ideological' reasons (i.e. they want their opponents to have the same preferences they do). I characterise `strongly ideological', `weakly ideological' and `pragmatic' types. Weakly ideological types wish to preserve their own type, as do strongly ideological types, who also seek to convert others. A pragmatic player, in contrast, is willing to have her type changed if her new type would prefer the resulting equilibrium of the game of life to the status quo. I show that if two players of different ideological types meet, there is an equilibrium investment profile with lower aggregate welfare than the no-invest profile. If at least one type is strongly ideological, there is a unique such equilibrium. Finally, a `perfectly ideological' type is a strongly ideological type which, if held by all players, results in the best outcome of the game of life as judged by that type. If a perfectly ideological player plays a pragmatic player, aggregate welfare is always greater than in the no-invest profile.
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Woodward, Michelle. "The use of real options and multi-objective optimisation in flood risk management." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/3714.
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The development of suitable long term flood risk intervention strategies is a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication but in addition complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of interventions, the area with the highest economical benefit and the most opportune time for implementation. All of these elements pose difficulties to decision makers. Recently, there has been a shift in the current practice for appraising potential strategies and consideration is now being given to ensure flexible, adaptive strategies to account for the uncertain climatic conditions. Real Options in particular is becoming an acknowledged approach to account for the future uncertainties inherent in a flood risk investment decision. Real Options facilitates adaptive strategies as it enables the value of flexibility to be explicitly included within the decision making process. Opportunities are provided for the decision maker to modify and update investments when knowledge of the future state comes to light. In this thesis the use of Real Options in flood risk management is investigated as a method to account for the uncertainties of climate change. Each Intervention strategy is purposely designed to capture a level of flexibility and have the ability to adapt in the future if required. A state of the art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time. In addition to Real Options, this thesis also explores the use of evolutionary optimisation algorithms to aid the decision making process when identifying the most appropriate long term strategies. Although the risk analysis tool is capable of quantifying the potential benefits attributed to a strategy, it is not necessarily able to identify the most appropriate. Methods are required which can search for the optimal solutions according to a range of performance metrics. Single and multi-objective genetic algorithms are investigated in this thesis as a method to search for the most appropriate long term intervention strategies. The Real Options concepts are combined with the evolutionary multiobjective optimisation algorithm to create a decision support methodology which is capable of searching for the most appropriate long term economical yet robust intervention strategies which are flexible to future change. The methodology is applied to two individual case studies, a section of the Thames Estuary and an area on the River Dodder. The results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous while the outputs provide decision makers with supplementary knowledge which previously has not been considered.
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Yamout, Ghina M. "Applications of single party and multiple party decision making under risk and uncertainty to water resources allocation problems." [Gainesville, Fla.] : University of Florida, 2005. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/UFE0012147.
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Loo, Sok Hiang Candy. "Making a good group decision (low risk) in Singapore under an environment that has time and cost constraints." Thesis, Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/43947.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedOrganizations in Singapore operate in a highly competitive and fast-paced work environment that presents decision-making challenges at the individual, group, and organization levels. A key problem is achieving good decision fitness within time and cost constraints. While many decision-making theories and processes address the fundamental decision-making process, there is limited research on improving the group decision-making framework to eliminate bias and promote effective communication. Using a collaborative approach built on systems engineering and decision-making theories, this thesis aims to improve the group decision-making framework to ensure good decision fitness and proper risk management. This thesis discusses how organizations in Singapore can make group decisions under time and cost constraints by leveraging efficient communication of information, considering the critical elements to ensure good decision fitness, and managing the decision loss quality through the computation of risk value.