Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Decision making theories'

How should we model learning behaviour in economic agents? This thesis addresses this question in two distinct ways. In the first set of chapters the assumption is that agents learn through the observation of others. They use Bayesian updating which together with specific informational assumptions can generate the problem known as herding with the potential for significant welfare losses. In the final set of chapters the agent is instead modelled as learning by example. Here the agent cannot learn by observing others, but has a pool of experience to fall back on. This allows us to examine how an economic agent will perform if he sees a particular economic situation (or game) for the first time, but has experience of playing related games. The tool used to capture the notion of learning through example is a neural network. Throughout the thesis the central theme is that economic agents will naturally use as much information as they can to help them make decisions. In many cases this should mean they take into consideration others' actions or their own experiences in similar but non-identical situations. Learning throughout the thesis will be rational or bounded-rational in the sense that either the best possible way to learn will be utilized (so players achieve full rational play, for example, through Bayesian updating), or a suitable local error-minimizing algorithm will be developed (for example, a rule of thumb which optimizes play in a subclass of games, but not in the overall set of possible games). Several themes permeate the whole thesis, including the scope for firms or planners to manipulate the information that is used by agents for their own ends, the role of rules of thumb, and the realism of current theories of learning in economics.

Researchers have increasingly directed attention to the importance of emotions in decision making. Recent theories have focused on the interpersonal effects of emotions--the influence of the decision maker's expressed emotions on observers' decisions and judgments. In the current research, we examine people's expectations of how incidental, discrete emotions affect behavior. We also study how these expectations affect decisions in interactive settings, and contrast them with how emotions actually impact other people's behavior.These ideas were tested in four studies. In Study 1a, participants (N = 58) answered a questionnaire asking their perceptions of how different emotions affect behavior. In Study 1b, participants (N = 203) read a number of hypothetical scenarios in which different interactions between them and another person took place. Studies 2 (N = 98) and 3 (N = 132) were two economic games -- a Stag-Hunt game and a Trust Game -- involving decisions with non-trivial financial consequences.Across these four studies, I found that people do have strong beliefs about how incidental emotions affect behaviors. Because of these beliefs, when told about their counterparts' emotional state, people in interactive settings modify their behavior. The impact of people's beliefs on behavior, however, was more consistent for negative emotions such as anger and fear, than for positive emotions such as happiness and gratitude. These findings also indicate that people are sensitive to the different effects of different emotions: different negative emotions such as guilt and anger have different effects on their expectations. Finally, I found that people's expectations about how their counterparts' emotions affect behavior can be inaccurate in specific settings.

The idea of a United Nations (UN) intelligence system is widely misunderstood and debates about it seem to be both misplaced and anecdotal. The lack of a consistent theory on intelligence has fostered the widely held view that such a system is not feasible or incompatible with the UN collective security system. This dissertation takes as its central thesis, the question, of whether an intelligence system is both desirable and feasible within the UN structure. In spite of the fact that no known study has so far engaged with the subject matter at the depth presented in this dissertation, the study advances the concept of collective intelligence, and its implications for managing international conflicts. The dissertation examines existing barriers in efforts to interface intelligence system with the UN structure, and proposes that, with suitable refinements, the concept of intelligence need not be incompatible with the UN system. It is also argued that these constraints should not preclude evolutionary changes to include an intelligence system that is compatible with an organisation such as the UN. By developing a concept of collective intelligence, the thesis proposes theoretical frameworks that suggest a potential nature of a viable intelligence capability within the UN. The analysis is developed normatively and conceptually, which lead to a further conclusion that the UN already possesses an intelligence capability which exists in manner that is not recognised. The lack of scholarly efforts to ground such a system on a reasonable framework creates a vacuum in the study of international organisations, and in particular the United Nations system. At a minimum, this dissertation fills this gap.

The complexity of financial analysis, particularly on selection process or decision making problems, has increased rapidly over several decades. As a result, much attention has been focused on developing and implementing the efficient mathematical models for supporting this kind of problems. Multiple criteria decision analysis, an advanced field of operations research provides analysts or decision makers a broad range of methodologies, which are all suited to the complexity of financial decision analysis. In the financial modeling, uncertainty problems are inevitable, owing to the fact that the consequences of events are not precisely known. In addition, human judgments as part of analysis also contribute to it intricacy. Correspondingly, many studies have been concentrated on integrating uncertainty theories in modeling the real financial problems. One area of interest is on the inclusion of the element of human behavior or attitudinal character of decision makers. Aggregation operator in this case can offer a wide spectrum of analysis or flexibility in modeling the human behavior in financial decision analysis. In general, the main purpose of this work is on the study of financial selection problems from the perspective of decision analysis, uncertainty theories and aggregation operators. To be specific, the decision problems under a finite or discrete case and multidimensional factors are studied. The emphasis is given on the group decision making models, notably, the Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) of belief structure, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Moreover, the uncertainty theories based on fuzzy set theory and imprecise probability are employed, together with information fusion based on the ordered weighted average (OWA) operators. Quantitative and qualitative preferences, decision strategies based on the attitudinal character of decision makers, and majority concepts for group consensus are highlighted. The specific contributions of this work are summarized as the following: • The first contribution is on developing the multi-expert multi-criteria decision making (ME-MCDM) model with respect to two-stage aggregation processes. In specific, the aggregation of criteria is based on the integration of weighted arithmetic mean (WA) and OWA. The main attention is given on the proposed alternative OWAWA operator as an extension of immediate WA and OWAWA operators. Two approaches for modeling the majority opinion of experts are studied, in which based on the induced OWA (IOWA) operators. Some modifications to the support functions are suggested as to derive the order inducing variables. The analysis of ME-MCDM model based on these aggregation processes then is conducted. In this study the selection of investment strategy is used as to exemplify the model. • The weighted-selective aggregated majority-OWA operator may be considered as the second contribution. It is as an extension of the SAM-OWA operator, where the reliability of information sources is considered. The WSAM-OWA then is generalized to the quantified WSAM-OWA by incorporating the concept of linguistic quantifier, mainly for the group fusion strategy. The QWSAM-IOWA with an ordering step is proposed for the individual fusion strategy. These aggregation operators are then implemented to the case of alternative scheme of heterogeneous group decision analysis, in particular for a selection of investment problem. • Third contribution is represented by the development of linguistic group decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure. Different type of linguistic aggregation operator such as the 2-tuple induced linguistic OWA operator is suggested. Specifically, it is based on order-inducing variables in which the ordering of the arguments and uncertain situations can be assessed with linguistic information. Then, by using the 2-TILOWA in the D-S framework, the belief structure-2-TILOWA operator can be formed. Some of its main properties are studied. This model is applied in a selection of financial strategies. • The extension of AHP for group decision making model is given as the fourth contribution, notably, based on the inclusion of IOWA operators. Two-stage aggregation processes used in the AHP-GDM model are extended. Firstly, a generalization of weighted maximal entropy OWA under the IOWA operator is proposed as to aggregate the criteria. Further, the majority concept based on the IOWA and Minkowski OWA-based similarity measure is suggested to determine a consensus among experts. This model provides a variant of decision strategies for analyzing the individual and the majority of experts. The application in investment selection problem is presented to test the reliability of the model. • The fifth contribution is on the integration of heavy ordered weighted geometric (HOWG) aggregation operators in AHP-GDM model. In the sense of heavy OWA operator (HOWA), the heavy weighted geometric (HWG) and HOWG are introduced as extensions of the normal weighted geometric mean (WG) and the OWG by relaxing the constraints on the associated weighting vector. These HWG and HOWG operators then are utilized in the aggregation process of AHP-GDM, specifically on the aggregation of individual judgments procedure. The main advantage of the model, besides the complete overlapping of information such in classical methods, is that it can also accommodate partial and non-overlapping information in the formulation. An investment selection problem is applied to demonstrate the model. • The extension of TOPSIS for group decision making model by the inclusion of majority concept may be considered as the sixth contribution. The majority concept is derived based on the induced generalized OWA (IGOWA) operators. Two fusion schemes in TOPSIS model are designed. First, an external fusion scheme to aggregate the experts’ judgments with respect to the concept of majority opinion on each criterion is suggested. Then, an internal fusion scheme of ideal and anti-ideal solutions that represents the majority of experts is proposed using the Minkowski OWA distance measures. The comparison of the proposed model with some other TOPSIS models with respect to distance measures is presented. Here, a general case of selection problem is presented, specifically on the human resource selection problem. • Finally, the group decision making model based on conflicting bifuzzy sets (CBFS) is proposed. Precisely, the subjective judgments of experts, mainly from positive and negative aspects are considered simultaneously in the analysis. Moreover, the weighting method for the attribute (or sub-attribute) is subject to the integration of subjective and objective weights. The synthesis of CBFS in the model is naturally done by extending the fuzzy evaluation in parallel with the intuitionistic fuzzy set. A new technique to compute the similarity measure is proposed, in which, being the degree of agreement between the experts. The model then is applied in the case study of flood control project selection problem. To sum up, the presented thesis dealt with the extension of multi-criteria decision analysis models for the financial selection problems (as a specific scope) and also the general selection problems with the inclusion of attitudinal character, majority concept and fuzzy set theory. In particular, the group decision making model, Dempster-Shafer belief structure, AHP and TOPSIS are proposed to overcome the shortcoming of the existing models, i.e., related to the financial decision analysis. The applicability and robustness of the developed models have been demonstrated and some sensitivity analyses are also provided. The main advantages of the proposed models are to provide a more general and flexible models for a wider analysis of the decision problems.
La tesis, a través del análisis y desarrollo del Análisis de decisiones, Teorías de incertidumbre y Operadores de agregación, busca contribuir al estado del arte y nuevas propuesta de las necesidades y demandas que los decisores, responsables o e inversores financieros se encuentran por la creciente complejidad de sus análisis y estrategias, sobre todo en los procesos de selección o en los problemas de decisión. Así, el objetivo principal de esta tesis es el estudio de los problemas de selección financiera desde la perspectiva del análisis de decisiones, las teorías de la incertidumbre y los operadores de agregación. En concreto, se estudian los problemas de decisión en virtud de un conjunto finito de alternativas (caso discreto) y de factores multidimensionales. En el trabajo se desarrolla una extensión de los modelos de análisis de decisiones multicriterio y multiexperto que se utilizan en la resolución de los problemas de selección financiera (como ámbito específico), pero también en los problemas de selección generales, con la inclusión del carácter actitudinal, el concepto de mayoría y la teoría de los conjuntos borrosos. En particular, el énfasis se sitúa en los modelos de toma de decisiones en grupo y en la estructura de creencias Dempster-Shafer (D-S), el proceso analítico jerárquico (AHP) i la técnica de orden de preferencia por similitud con la solución ideal (TOPSIS). Además, se aplican las teorías de incertidumbre basadas en conjuntos borrosos y de probabilidades imprecisas juntamente con la fusión de la información basada en operadores OWA. También se destaca las preferencias cuantitativas y cualitativas, las estrategias de decisión basadas en el carácter actitudinal de los decisores, y el concepto de mayoría en el consenso grupal, de forma que se propone el desarrollo de operadores OWA, la generalización de los modelos AHP y TOPSIS, juntamente con el modelo de toma de decisiones grupal y la estructura de creencias Dempster-Shafer, con el fin de superar las deficiencias de los modelos existentes en relación con el análisis de decisiones financieras. En particular, la investigación realizada se puede sintetizar en siete aportaciones específicas al state-of-the-art del Análisis de decisiones y los operadores de agregación, con aplicaciones en diferentes problemas de decisión financiera: 1. Operadores de agregación basados en los OWA en los modelos de decisión Multiexpertos y Multicriterio. 2. Operadores ponderados SAM-OWA y su aplicación en modelos GDM con operadores lingüísticos. 3. Modelos GDM con operadores lingüísticos adaptados a la teoría de Dempster-Shafer con la aplicación de operadores de agregación inducidos lingüísticos. 4. Generalización del modelo AHP para decisiones grupales usando operadores OWA inducidos. 5. Introducción de operadores OWA geométricos y pesados en los modelos GDM y AHP. 6. Ampliación de los modelos TOPSIS con operadores de agregación basados en los OWA. 7. Desarrollo y aplicación del Conflicting bifuzzy a modelos de decisión MAGDM En la tesis se demuestra la aplicabilidad y la robustez de los modelos desarrollados, tanto con un esquema de agregación de expertos clásicos como con un esquema alternativo que separa por criterios de decisión. Las principales ventajas de los modelos propuestos son que se tratan modelos más generales y flexibles para un análisis más amplio de los problemas de decisión, en particular de los de selección financiera, que incorporen diversos criterios, expertos y componentes de incertidumbre y lingüísticos.

The past 40 years have seen an enormous amount of research aimed at investigating human reasoning and decision-making abilities. This research has led to an extended debate about the extent to which humans meet the standards of normative theories of rationality. Recently, it has been proposed that dual-process theories, which posit that there are two distinct types of cognitive systems, offer a way to resolve this debate over human rationality. I will propose that the two systems of dual-process theories are best understood as investigative kinds. I will then examine recent empirical research from the cognitive neuroscience of decision-making that lends empirical support to the theoretical claims of dual-process theorists. I will lastly argue that dual-process theories not only offer an explanation for much of the conflicting data seen in decision-making and reasoning research, but that they ultimately offer reason to be optimistic about the prospects of human rationality.

In military battlefield domain, decision making plays a very important part because safety and protection depends upon the accurate decisions made by the commanders in complex situations. In military and defense applications, there is a need of such technology that helps leaders to take good decisions in the critical situations with information overload. With the help of multi-sensor information fusion, the amount of information can be reduced as well as uncertainties in the information in the decision making of identifying and tracking targets in the military area.   Information fusion refers to the process of getting information from different sources and fusing this information, to supply an enhanced decision support. Decision making is the very core and a vital part in the field of information fusion and better decisions can be obtained by understanding how situation awareness can be enhanced. Situation awareness is about understanding the elements of the situation i.e. circumstances of the surrounding environment, their relations and their future impacts, for better decision making. Efficient situation awareness can be achieved with the effective use of the sensors. Sensors play a very useful role in the multi-sensor fusion technology to collect the data about, for instance, the enemy regarding their movements across the border and finding relationships between different objects in the battlefield that helps the decision makers to enhance situation awareness.   The purpose of this thesis is to understand and analyze the critical issue of uncertainties that results information in overload in military battlefield domain and benefits of using multi-sensor information fusion technology to reduce uncertainties by comparing uncertainty management methods of Bayesian and Dempster Shafer theories to enhance decision making and situation awareness for identifying the targets in battlefield domain.

In self-defense cases of battered women who kill their abusive husbands, defendants have used Battered Woman Syndrome (BWS) expert testimony to help justify their acts of self-defense. However, past research demonstrates that BWS is ineffective in persuading jurors because it pathologizes the defendant rather than rationalizing her behavior. Additionally, BWS highlights passive (i.e., stereotypical) features of a battered woman, and such testimony may not apply to a defendant with active (i.e., atypical) features of a battered women. The current study hypothesized that another type of expert testimony, Social-Agency Framework (SAF), will persuade jurors to render more lenient verdicts, and that the defendant’s passive or active response history will affect verdict decisions. Additionally, a meditational model predicted that the effect of mock jurors’ gender on verdict decisions will be mediated by their attitudes toward battered women. In a 3(expert testimony: BWS vs. SAF vs. control) x 2(response history: passive vs. active) x 2(gender: male vs. female) model, jury-eligible participants (expected N = 510) recruited from the website mTurk answered a survey measuring their attitudes toward battered women, read a mock trial transcript, and rendered a verdict. The results indicated non-significant findings for the effects of expert testimony and response history on verdict outcomes. A full mediation was found, indicating that gender acted as a proxy for jurors’ attitudes, influencing their verdict decisions. This study has strong legal implications that highlight the prevailing effect of attitudes and how those attitudes may override the effects of expert testimony and defendant response history.

One of the factors significantly influencing our daily decisions is the so-called cognitive depletion.The theory of cognitive depletion postulates the existence of a limited mental resource that is necessary for self-regulation. If the resource is diminished by a task involving self-control, achievement in subsequent self-control task will be impaired. This project examines the effect of cognitive depletion on decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task designed to simulate real-life decision making involving gains and losses. Further, a possible effect of moderating factors that could be affected by cognitive depletion and consequently influence decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task -- risk preference and impulsivity -- is investigated. Dual-process theories postulate there are two systems involved in decision-making: faster, intuitive, emotional System 1 and slower, deliberative, rational System 2. It was found that cognitive depletion leads to enhancement of System 1. As advantageous decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task are closely related to emotional reactions -- domain of System 1 -- it was hypothesized that cognitive depletion will lead to not worse, or possibly even better results in depleted subjects. A controlled laboratory experiment was conducted involving 39 subjects in total. No difference was found in average desicions of depleted and non-depleted subjects in the Iowa Gambling Task, supporting the hypothesis. Further, short-term increase in impulsivity caused by cognitive depletion was very probably moderating choices in the IGT, leading to worse overall performance. Regarding risk preferences, we found that non-depleted subjects were generally more risk seeking in losses context, while depleted subjects exhibited rather loss aversion. This change in risk behaviors due to cognitive depletion very probably did not mediate choices in the Iowa Gambling Task.

The aim of this study is to examine what social workers consider as ‘challenging behaviour’ among adolescents, but also to examine the connection between investigation and intervention in cases where such behaviour is being displayed. The questions of the study are to examine what social workers think of the instrument of assessment BBIC (Children’s Needs in Focus) and how the usage of BBIC affect social workers understanding of challenging behaviour. Moreover, it is a qualitative study and the respondents are all social workers with various length of professional experience who work with making decisions in juvenile welfare cases. The social workers’ opinion about which behaviours among adolescents that were important to intervene in could be understood with what was considered as moral panic for some behaviour. The social workers use of and opinion towards BBIC could be understood in relation to practical theory, tacit knowledge and naïve theories.

Public policy efforts to curb obesity often adhere to a rational actor model of human behavior, asserting that consumer behavior will change provided proper economic incentives, nutritional information, and health education. However, rigorous academic research related to such questions remains limited in scope and appears inconclusive as to the success of such economic and cognitive interventions. In contrast, research in social psychology and behavioral economics suggests that decision making is partially based on heuristics, or rules of thumb, and susceptible to powerful cognitive biases. External cues can subtly influence decision making in powerful ways. In this paper, after discussing existing policy efforts and their limitations, we use concepts from behavioral decision theory to design interventions related to different psychological domains in hopes of providing a more complete understanding of consumer dietary decision making. We move beyond traditional cognitive methods, namely the provision of nutritional information and economic incentives, to suggest the value of other cognitive, affective, social, and environmental influences in shaping food choices. Over a 21-month period, we tested 9 interventions in a point-of-purchase field study at a hospital cafeteria, focusing on the healthfulness of beverage purchases and chip purchases. Information, in the form of novel, reinforcing health messages, had the most consistently beneficial effect on the healthfulness of purchases. Traffic light colored-nutritional labeling, affect-based cues (smiley faces and frowny faces), and environmental changes including grouping items together based on level of healthfulness ("grouping by healthfulness") and pairing an unhealthy item with a healthier alternative ("healthy substitute pairing") also affected choices. Messages related to social norms had no effect on purchases. Our work adds to existing consumer behavior research and helps to inform health policy of additional cognitive factors and biases that must be taken into account when designing interventions and which can, indeed, be leveraged to influence dietary behavior. This is the first study of which we know to test the relative effects of this number and variety (economic, cognitive, affective, social, and environmental) of theory-based behavioral nudges on food choice in one setting.

Year 12 has been identified as a critical decision point in the career decision making process for students. Students have been found to make decisions in different ways some having already defined goals for the future others are doubtful and make tentative goals. At the end of Year 12 students are faced with the task of career decision. During the final two weeks of year 12 these students will have to make choices about their imminent future that is whether to do tertiary studies/seek apprenticeships look for immediate employment or defer studies for a time and seek employment. A review of major theories relating to career determination was undertaken. Decision-making theories have identified twelfth grade/age range 16 - 18 years, as being one of the critical decision periods for an adolescent. 355 A.C.T. Year 12 students from Catholic Colleges were given a questionnaire designed to probe students' self awareness in relation to study habits coping abilities, as well as a description of some of their personal qualities relating to school life, subject interest, and career benefits derived from the future career considered. The information gained from the Questionnaire was reduced to a number of sets of relationships by factor analysis. The personal factors of subject interest, career benefits and further study interests were examined by canonical correlation techniques with Career Types. Students with an interest in scientific careers exhibited an interest in the physical science subjects. Those with an expressed interest in a blend of science and expressive arts career were a group of students with creative ideas / leadership aspirations,an interest in cultural and physical science subject, and a desire for further- studies. Another group of year 12 students involving more girls than boys showed an interest in a cluster of careers with a social involvement component but a rejection of routine activities. Students with an interest in environmental subjects with a possession of management and living skills looked towards careers that provided out of doors activities involving social work and selling. There was a positive correlation between these personal factors and the students' choice of a career.

The theoretical debate over the ability of parties and leaders in the House of Representatives to influence legislative decision-making is at the center of much of the literature on Congress. On the one hand, the Procedural Cartel perspective argues that while the tools used by the majority party leadership to assure the triumph of its preferences may vary depending on the institutional context, the basic ability of the leadership to impact legislative outcomes remains consistent. In contrast, Conditional Party Government (CPG) theory posits that any power the majority party and its leadership possesses over legislative decision-making is directly conditioned upon the amount of agreement within the majority party caucus as to collective goals, as well as the amount of ideological polarization that exists between the majority and minority parties. This thesis provides an original test of these two theoretical perspectives by evaluating their comparative ability to account for the proposal and passage of limitation riders on the House floor during the annual appropriations process since the 1980s. Limitation riders provide a good vehicle to test theories of congressional voting as they often have important policy implications in areas of significant controversy. In addition, the extent to which the individual members or legislative parties are able to successfully utilize limitation riders as a means of making substantive policy is indicative of larger patterns of committee or party domination of the floor process. After reviewing the relevant literature on congressional decision-making, this analysis proceeds to outline the theoretical predictions that the Procedural Cartel and CPG perspectives make regarding limitation riders. An original dataset comprised of over 800 limitation riders from the 97th through the 110th Congresses is analyzed both with respect to overall proposal and passage rates as well their party of origin. This study finds that while the CPG perspective is best able to account for what occurs during periods of low polarization and cohesion, Procedural Cartel provides the most accurate prediction of what occurs when polarization and cohesion are high. These findings suggest that, although these theories both have some ability to account for congressional decision-making on the House floor, both of these frameworks need to be revisited so that they can accurately account for what occurs during floor phase of the legislative process.

This research investigates the mutual influence between self-management as organizational structure and intuition in decision-making. Self-management as organizational structure has recently developed as a response to current challenges in society and business, thus constitutes an emerging research field. This study is contributing empirically to this under-research field while at the same time building on the well-researched field of decision-making. In particular, this study is building on the positive view of intuition in decision-making that comes along with dual-process theories. The empirical contribution of this study is collected through semi-structured interviews with a multiple-case study research design. This study’s main finding is the confirmation of a mutual influence, even more, a positive mutual influence, between self-management as organizational structure and intuition in decision-making. Furthermore, first findings on how they are influencing each other are brought forward as well as insights into the diversity of decision-making processes when applying self-management as organizational structure.

xv, 145 p. : ill. (some col.)
This dissertation examines the role of affect in consumer judgments in two essays. The first essay explores the use of affect as a heuristic basis for judgments of the risks and benefits associated with new products. Current perspectives regarding the processes by which consumers make decisions about the adoption of innovations maintain that it is largely a cognitive process. However, the four studies that make up the first essay suggest that consumer assessments of the risks and benefits associated with product innovations are often inversely related and affectively congruent with evaluations of those innovations. The results support and extend previous research that has investigated the affect heuristic in the context of social hazards. The findings further indicate that more affectively extreme evaluations are associated with increasingly disparate assessments of risk and benefit. The results indicate that this relationship is consistent across a variety of products and product categories. Together, these findings challenge traditional conceptualizations of innovation adoption decision making and suggest that cognitive models alone are insufficient to explain innovation adoption decisions. The second essay investigates if processing fluency - the difficulty associated with processing information - may serve as an input to the affect heuristic and subsequent judgments of risk and benefit. Recently, Song and Schwarz investigated the relationship between differences in fluency and perceptions of risk. Their results suggested that fluency experiences influence risk perception through differences in familiarity and not as the result of fluency-elicited affect. The three studies included in the second essay re-examine those results in an effort to clarify the role of affect as a basis for perceptions of risk. The findings document a previously unreported reversal in preference for less fluent stimuli and suggest that fluency-elicited affect can explain the relationship between processing experiences and perceptions of risk. The results have important theoretical implications for our understanding of how people derive meaning from fluency experiences and for the role of fluency-elicited affect as a basis for judgments of risk and benefit.
Committee in charge: David Boush, Chairperson; Robert Madrigal, Member; Joan Giese, Member; Paul Slovic, Outside Member

The intent of this two-phase, sequential explanatory mixed methods study was to examine the role teachersâ beliefs play when making instructional decisions. The population included in-service teachers representing four Career and Technical Education disciplines located within the commonwealth of Virginia. Using a stratified random sample, 622 teachers were selected for the quantitative strand, and employing a system of four contacts, quantitative data were collected from 292 participants. Dweckâ s Theories of Intelligence scale assessed the nature of in-service teachersâ beliefs about intelligence, and the Epistemic Belief Inventory was used to measure their epistemological beliefs. Finally, the participants rated their use of teacher-centered and student-centered teaching methods. In the second phase, qualitative data were collected from nine participants to further understand how in-service teachersâ beliefs are related to the teaching practices they use. The quantitative and qualitative data were combined to determine if the descriptions of teaching method used, beliefs about intelligence, and epistemological beliefs aligned with the outcomes of the quantitative questionnaire. Significant correlations existed between the Theories of Intelligence scale and the Epistemic Belief Inventory. A significant positive relationship existed between the Epistemic Beliefs Inventory and the overall teaching practices score, indicating in-service teachersâ advanced epistemological beliefs are related to the use of student-centered teaching practices. A regression analysis indicated that teaching discipline, epistemological beliefs, teaching experience, and highest level of education completed predicted the teaching practices in-service teachersâ select. The qualitative data supported the claim that beliefs about intelligence and epistemological beliefs influence teaching practices. Six themes emerged from the qualitative data, and the themes were used as a framework for organizing the findings. The researcher acknowledges that teachers possess a variety of beliefs, and those beliefs influence how teachers teach. The researcher recommends that teacher educators attempt to identify the beliefs pre-service teachers hold, and if modifications of beliefs are needed, facilitate interventions to modify those beliefs. While some have labeled the direct relationship between teacher beliefs and teaching practices as â messyâ , the evidence indicates the two, are in fact, related.
Ph. D.

According to Erik Erikson (1950), adolescents and young adults are highly engaged in the process of identity development with intentions to avoid a state of diffusion and role confusion. Several researchers (e.g., Bordin, 1990; Krumboltz, 1979; Lofquist & Dawis, 1991; Super, 1957) in the area of career development have attempted to explain how identity relates to the career selection process for young adults, all seeming to describe a similar construct, that of self identity. Perhaps the most popular theory of career development, Holland’s (1959) theory, clarified the identity construct by Holland's Vocational Identity is first compared to Marcia's four ego identity statuses (Diffusion, Foreclosure, Moratorium, and Achieved), indicating a positive relationship to ego identity development. Second, person-environment (P-E) congruence was compared to Erikson's/Marcia's four identity statuses and Vocational Identity, revealing no relationship between the variables. However, strong relationships were apparent for P-E Congruence and well-being measures, including satisfaction with academic major, stability in academic major, and academic achievement. In further investigation of the identity formation process, identity variables were compared to measures of well-being. Using canonical correlation analysis, the first canonical function showed Vocational Identity as a strong indicator of well-being. Canonical correlation analysis was also used to compare measures of career development with Erikson's/Marcia's ego identity development. Results revealed a strong statistical relationship with the first canonical root, indicating Vocational Identity and career decision making both appear to be strongly related to the Achieved identity status. These findings further support the theoretical connection between ego identity and career development process. Considering limitations of the study, implications for theory and practice and recommendations for future research are provided. describing Vocational Identity as the possession of a clear and stable picture of one’s goals, interests, and talents. This study sought to clarify similarities between Erikson’s theory of identity development and Holland’s theory of vocational choice. To assess the relationship between identity formation and career development, 206 college students completed scales measuring ego identity formation, using Marcia’s (1966) empirical representation of Erikson’s theory, Vocational Identity, measures of congruence, measures of well-being, and Career Indecision.

Alla företag har – från tid till annan – någon form av investeringar i sin verksamhet. För att utvärdera olika investeringsalternativ används investeringskalkyleringar, men de bakomlig-gande antaganden som görs vid dessa kalkyler är präglade av osäkerhet då ingen kan sia om framtidens utfall. Ett verktyg som kan användas för att hantera denna osäkerhet är känslighets-analys. Det finns många studier gjorda om känslighetsanalyser, men nästan alla följer en rationell an-sats och tar sällan hänsyn till den begränsade rationella människan som står bakom analyserna. Syftet med denna studie är att analysera hur företag använder sig av känslighetsanalys i sam-band med investeringsbeslut, oavsett om de förhåller sig till den rationella ansatsen eller inte. Studien har därför genomförts med intervjuer för att kunna uppnå detta syfte. Studien visar på att det finns viktiga faktorer som gör att känslighetsanalysens roll och använ-dande inför investeringsbeslut skiljer sig åt i de intervjuer vi gjort. Faktorerna som denna studie har tagit hänsyn till är hur ägarstrukturen ser ut, vilka typer av investeringar som görs och organisationens tolkningsprocess av omgivningen. Genom vår analysmodell hoppas vi kunna visa på varför behovet och utförandet av känslighetsanalysen ser ut som det gör, men även ge en förståelse för varför den skiljer sig åt mellan olika företag.
All companies have some form of investment in their business. To evaluate different invest-ment options, they will use some form of capital budgeting techniques. However, the underly-ing assumptions made in these calculations are characterized by uncertainty, as no one can predict the outcome of the future. One tool that can be used to deal with this uncertainty is sensitivity analysis. There have been many studies done on the subject of sensitivity analysis. But almost all of them follow a rational approach and rarely consider the limited rational person behind these analyses. The purpose of this study is to analyse how companies use sensitivity analysis for investment decisions, regardless of whether they relate to the rational approach or not. This study was therefore conducted with interviews to be able to achieve this purpose. This study shows that there are important factors that change the sensitivity analysis purpose and how it is used for investments decisions in the interviews that we have done. The factors this study will take into account are company structures, types of investments and how organ-izations manage their interpretation process of their environment. Through our analysis model we hope to show why the need and implementation of sensitivity analysis looks the way it does and provide an understanding of why it differs between companies.

A la suite des deux Guerres Mondiales, la considération sociétale du handicap a évoluée. Les Etats ont peu à peu promulgué des lois antidiscriminatoires et mis en place un ensemble de politiques publiques en sa faveur. Pour profiter des politiques publiques établies, il est néanmoins nécessaire que le handicap soit déclaré institutionnellement. Néanmoins, ce processus n’est pas systématique, le handicap étant souvent dissimulé, et ce, dès le cursus d’étude. Dans cette optique, et en nous appuyant sur les théories de la décision, l’objectif de la thèse est de comprendre le fonctionnement de la révélation institutionnelle du handicap des étudiants. Nous avons conduit une étude qualitative, basée sur la conduite d’entretiens semi-directifs, de récits de vie, d’observations participantes et d’analyses de données secondaires. Nos résultats montrent que différentes raisons individuelles et environnementales influent sur la propension à la révélation. Les conséquences de la décision s’analysent en termes de confirmation et de disconfirmation des attentes initiales. La décision se matérialise également par l’adoption de quatre stratégies de révélation
Following two World Wars, the societal consideration of disability has considerably evolved. Most of countries have implemented national disability policies in order to improve disabled people professional integration. Nevertheless, in order to be part of such policies, disability first needs to be institutionally disclosed. Institutional disclosure is far from being automatic as disability is frequently concealed since university. In this perspective, based on the decision making theories this thesis aims at understanding the institutional disclosure process. We focus on the specific case of students with disabilities. A qualitative study based on semi structured interviews, life story interviews, participant observations and secondary data analysis has been conducted. Our results show that several individual and environmental reasons affect disclosure motivations. The consequences of disclosure can be analyzed in terms of expectancies confirmation and disconfirmation. Finally disclosure follows four distinctive strategies

Digitalization is an important aspect for future growth of all organizations, and especially in times like the past year where most of the world has been faced with covid-restrictions and lockdown. Dermarome is a leading skincare and beauty distributor and are currently in the process of launching a new B2B website and web-shop. The aim of this research is to provide an answer to the following interrelated research questions:   1. How do the management of Dermarome decide on their investments in the business- to- business IT infrastructure?    2. How will the launch of the business- to- business website affect the purchasing behaviour of the business- to- business customers?    To answer these research questions a qualitative study has been made and the top management at Dermarome has been interviewed for this purpose. 5 interviewees were selected based on their knowledge and experience. All interviews that participated in this research were anonymous.    The result of this thesis is divided up into two parts, firstly, it describes how Dermarome has used the Payback rule and SWOT in order to make a decision regarding the investment in the B2B website. Secondly, it describes how Dermarome believes the saloon and spa customers purchasing behaviour will change due to this website, as it will lead to an increase in Dermarome’s sales.

L’objectif principal de l’ingénierie des systèmes est la création d’un ensemblede produits et des services de haute qualité qui permettent l’accomplissement de tâchespour répondre aux besoins des clients. Un projet typique d’ingénierie des systèmes peutêtre divisé en trois phases : la définition, le développement et le déploiement. La phasede définition comprend les activités de capture des exigences et de leur raffinement. Àla fin de la phase de définition du système, nous avons toutes les exigences fonctionnelleset non-fonctionnelles du système. L’un des résultats de la phase de développement est lemodèle de travail initiale du système. La phase de déploiement se compose des activitésliées à (1) l’évaluation opérationnelle du système, à (2) l’utilisation du système et à (3) sonentretien. Dans un cycle de vie du projet, il y a de nombreuses questions qui doivent êtretraitées au cours des différentes phases pour finalement livrer un produit.Nous avons proposé une solution aux problèmes liés à l’ingénierie des exigences et auxtechniques de la détection, de la gestion et de la résolution des conflits entre les partiesprenantes. Cette thèse est basée sur les dernières avancées dans les pratiques industrielleset de recherche dans le domaine de l’ingénierie de conception du système.L’objectif de ce travail de thèse est de proposer une méthodologie de conception novatriceet globale en tenant compte de l’environnement multidisciplinaire et de multiplesintervenants. Nous avons proposé un langage de modélisation des exigences basé sur lestechniques GORE. Nous avons proposé quelques outils pour réduire l’ambiguïté des exigencestels l’utilisation de phrases négatives et de tests á l’aide de négation lorsqu’il s’agitde traiter certaines exigences difficiles à comprendre avec les techniques classiques. Nousavons également proposé des techniques de gestion des exigences pour mieux assurer leurtraçabilité. Concernant la résolution des conflits, nous avons proposé des techniques depondération des critères au cours des différentes étapes du cycle de vie. En utilisant lamême technique de pondération de critères, une méthode de décision multicritères et multiparticipants est proposée pour divers problèmes de décision survenant pendant le cycle devie du projet d’ingénierie systèmes.Enfin, une approche globale de l’ingénierie des systèmes est proposée pour intégrertoutes les contributions faites précédemment et est illustrée sur une étude de cas concernantun projet réel avec la présentation dŠun outil SysEngLab que nous avons développé pourmettre en oeuvre la majorité des méthodes et des techniques proposées au cours de thèse
The primary goal of the systems engineering is the creation of a setof high quality products and services that enable the accomplishment of desiredtasks and needs of the clients or user groups. A typical systems engineering projectcan be divided in to three phases: definition, development, and deployment. Thedefinition phase involves the activities of requirement elicitation and refinement.By the end of system definition phase, we have all the system functional and nonfunctionalrequirements. One of the results of development phase is initial workingmodel of the system. The deployment phase consists of activities of operationalimplementation, operational testing and evaluation, and operational functioning andmaintenance. In a project life cycle there are numerous issues to be sorted out duringthe various phases to finally deliver a successful product. We proposed solution tothe problems of requirements engineering & management, design conflict detection,and stakeholders conflict resolution. This thesis is based on the recent advances inindustrial practices and research in the field of system design engineering.The objective of this thesis work is to propose an innovative and holistic conceptionmethodology taking into account the multidisciplinary environment and multiplestakeholders. We have proposed a requirements modeling language based on theGORE techniques. We have proposed a few of tools for reducing the ambiguity ofrequirements such as: using negation and test cases using negation for contractingdifficult requirements. Requirement management techniques are proposed to providebetter requirements traceability and aid for other systems engineering activities.Few guidelines have been designed to guide the design of traceability policies. Criteriaweighting technique has been designed to better carry out the conflict resolutions,during the various life cycle stages. Using the same criteria weighting technique aflexible multi criteria multi participant decision methodology is proposed for variousdecision problems arising during the life cycle of systems engineering project.Finally, a comprehensive prescriptive systems engineering approach is proposedusing all the previously made contributions and an illustrative case study of a realongoing project is presented developed using the supporting tool SysEngLab, whichimplements majority of the methods and techniques proposed during thesis

Les problematiques de decision multicritere ont ete l'objet d'un interet croissant au cours des vingt dernieres annees. Plus recemment, les travaux de resolution de tels problemes ont vu le developpement d'algorithmes interactifs s'appuyant sur diverses strategies d'optimisation. Apres avoir etabli quelques resultats theoriques sur les notions d'efficacite et de prudence au sens de arrow-raynaud, nous aborderons dans cette these l'etude d'une methode interactive de prise de decision utile a la resolution de problemes complexes tels que les problematiques de planification spatiale ou d'amenagement. Cette methode est fondee sur l'identification d'une axiomatique efficace et prudente

Making decisions is a dynamic process. Especially when we face a decision between conflicting options, different forces seem to drag our mind from one option to the other one (James, 1890), again and again. This process may last for a long time, sometimes only coming to a decision when we are finally forced to choose, e.g. by an important deadline. Psychology and many other disciplines were interested in how humans make decisions from their beginnings on. Many different influences on decisions were discovered (e.g. Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Todd & Gigerenzer, 2000). In the face of these advances, it seems odd, that knowledge about the ongoing process of reaching a decision is rare and much of the investigation has focused on the final outcome of choice situations (Townsend & Busemeyer, 1995). A very recent approach, called neuroeconomics, started out to investigate what happens behind the scenes of a final decision. Using modern neuroimaging methods, many neuroeconomists explain decision making in the brain in terms of a hierarchy of different neural modules that work together like a big corporation to finally make the best possible decision (Sanfey, Loewenstein, McClure, & Cohen, 2006). However, the focus on neural modules also limits this approach to a quite static view of decision making and many questions, related to the dynamic aspects of decision making, still remain open: How do we continuously control impulsive or habitual tendencies in our decisions when we pursue long-term goals? How do we shift attention back and forth between (goal) relevant properties of choice options? How do we adjust and readjust our focus of attention to relevant information in order to avoid distraction by irrelevant or misleading information? And how are we influenced by the environmental context when we make decisions? The present work aims to show how an approach based on the concepts of dynamic systems theory could complement the module oriented approach and enhance our knowledge of the processes of decision making. Chapter 2 elaborates the limits of the module oriented approach, with a special focus on decisions under conflict, when we are faced with conflicting information, and introduces the principles of a complementary dynamic approach. Chapter 3 deduces the dynamic hypothesis of this work: ongoing processes interactions at different time scales can explain specific cognitive functions without postulating specialized modules for this function. To approach this hypothesis, chapter 4 will develop a theoretical and empirical framework to study decision making dynamically. The empirical part, building on the empirical framework, starts with chapter 5 presenting an EEG experiment. Chapter 6 presents two mouse tracking experiments, and chapter 7 presents a modelling study, reproducing the empirical data of chapters 5 and 6. The general discussion in chapter 8 summarizes the theoretical and empirical results and discusses possible limitations. Finally, chapter 9 discusses the implications of the dynamic approach to decision making, presents an outlook on future research projects, and closes the work by offering a dynamic picture of the processes behind the stage of a final decision
„Man kann nicht beides haben: Den Rahm und die Butter.“ - „Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.“ Mit diesen Sprichwörtern beklagt der Volksmund, womit das Leben uns immer wieder konfrontiert: wir müssen entscheiden, und oftmals führt uns das in Entscheidungskonflikte. Im Dilemma solcher Konflikte mag es begründet sein, dass das Thema der vorliegenden Arbeit, die Entscheidungsforschung, nicht nur in der Psychologie schon immer eine wichtige Rolle spielte, sondern auch in anderen Disziplinen, wie der Ökonomie, der angewandten Mathematik und der Philosophie. Die langjährigen Bestrebungen, diese unterschiedlichen Fachbereiche zu integrieren (z.B. Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1944; Savage, 1972), münden aktuell in das Forschungsgebiet der Neuroökonomie (Camerer, Loewenstein, & Prelec, 2005; Loewenstein, Rick, & Cohen, 2008; Sanfey, Loewenstein, McClure, & Cohen, 2006). Neuroökonomen nutzen vielfach die Methoden der bildgebenden Hirnforschung, um durch die Lokalisierung der neuronalen Basis hierarchisch gegliederter Module Entscheidungsprozesse zu erklären (z.B. Sanfey et al., 2006; Fellows, 2004). Während die Anwendung bildgebender Methoden Potential birgt (z.B. Harrison, 2008), ist es vor allem der modulorientierte Ansatz, der das Risiko einer zu eingeschränkten Sichtweise auf Entscheidungsprozesse trägt (z.B. Ortmann, 2008; Oullier & Kelso, 2006). Dies zeigt sich zum Beispiel im von der kognitiven Psychologie intensiv erforschten Bereich von Entscheidungen unter Konflikt. Eine zentrale Rolle bei dieser Art von Entscheidungen spielen kognitive Kontrollprozesse, die der Umsetzung zielorientierten Verhaltens (Norman & Shallice, 2000) durch Konfliktlösung und -anpassung dienen. Als Bindeglied dieser beiden Prozesse gilt die Detektion von Entscheidungskonflikten, welche die vorherrschende Conflict Monitoring Theory (Botvinick, Braver, Barch, Carter, & Cohen, 2001) entsprechend dem modulorientiertem Ansatz einem speziellen neuronalen Modul zuordnet, das im anterioren cingulären Cortex lokalisiert ist (Botvinick, Cohen, & Carter, 2004). Die Probleme eines einseitigen modulorientierten Ansatzes verdeutlichen hier unter anderem die widersprüchliche Befundlage (z.B. Mansouri, Tanaka, & Buckley, 2009) und die letztlich weiterhin ungeklärte Frage nach den zugrundeliegenden Prozessen. Die Arbeit hat deshalb zum Ziel, den modulorientierten Ansatz um einen komplementären Ansatz auf Basis der Theorie dynamischer Systeme (Dynamical Systems Theory, DST) zu ergänzen. Aus dem grundlegenden DST-Prinzip der kontinuierlichen (z.B. Spivey, 2007) Interaktion rückgekoppelter Komponenten (z.B. Kelso, 1995; Van Orden, Holden, & Turvey, 2003) wird zunächst die dynamische Hypothese abgeleitet, dass sich Effekte auf verschiedenen Zeitskalen gegenseitig bedingen und einander hervorbringen. Für Entscheidungen unter Konflikt bedeutet dies, dass sich die Prozesse der Konfliktlösung und anpassung durch ihre direkte Interaktion im kognitiven System gegenseitig erzeugen. Zur Überprüfung dieser Hypothese werden innerhalb der Arbeit generelle empirische Strategien entwickelt, welche die Untersuchung von Entscheidungsprozessen auf verschiedenen Zeitskalen ermöglichen. Im empirischen Teil der Arbeit werden sodann zwei dieser Strategien zur Anwendung gebracht, um den Erkenntnisgewinn des dynamischen Ansatzes zu illustrieren. Zunächst wird in einer EEG-Studie eine Frequency-Tagging-Methode (z.B. Müller & Hübner, 2002; Müller, Andersen, & Keil, 2007) auf die Untersuchung der kognitiven Kontrollprozesse in einer Flanker-Aufgabe (Eriksen & Eriksen, 1974) adaptiert. Die neue Kombination einer kontinuierlichen neurophysiologischen Methode und eines klassischen Konflikt-Paradigmas ermöglicht die gleichzeitige Untersuchung kontinuierlicher Veränderungen der Aufmerksamkeit auf relevante und irrelevante Information. Die Ergebnisse der Studie stützen die Hypothese einer direkten Interaktion von Prozessen der Konfliktlösung und -anpassung und stellen bereits einen Widerspruch zur Conflict Monitoring Theory dar. Als weitere empirische Strategie wird in zwei Experimenten die Methode des Maus-Tracking (z.B. Buetti & Kerzel, 2009; Song & Nakayama, 2009; Spivey, Grosjean, & Knoblich, 2005) im Rahmen einer Simon-Aufgabe (Simon, 1969) eingesetzt. Die erneute Kombination einer kontinuierlichen Methode, diesmal auf Reaktionsebene, mit einem klassischen Konflikt-Paradigma erlaubt die Messung von Verhaltenstendenzen im Verlauf des gesamten Entscheidungsprozesses. Mit Hilfe einer neu entwickelten regressionsbasierten Analysemethode werden die Subprozesse einzelner Entscheidungen separiert und Einblicke in die Dynamik von Konfliktlösung und -anpassung gewonnen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen ein komplexes Muster zeitlicher Interaktion zwischen den beiden kognitiven Kontrollprozessen, wobei die Konfliktanpassung zeitlich unabhängig von der Verarbeitung irrelevanter Information ist. Dies steht erneut im Widerspruch zu Annahmen der Conflict Monitoring Theory. Zusammenfassend stützen die empirischen Ergebnisse die dynamische Hypothese der kontinuierlichen Interaktion rückgekoppelter Komponenten und werden im nächsten Schritt in einem dynamisch-konnektionistischen Netzwerkmodell integriert. Als Alternative zum Modell der Conflict Monitoring Theory verzichtet es entsprechend dem dynamischen Ansatz auf ein Conflict Monitoring Modul (Botvinick et al., 2001). Es verfügt stattdessen über Verarbeitungs-Prozesse auf verschiedenen Zeitskalen (Kiebel, Daunizeau, & Friston, 2008) und eine Rückkopplung zwischen der Netzwerkschicht, die der Informationsverarbeitung dient, und jener, die der Zielrepräsentation dient (Gilbert & Shallice, 2002; Cohen & Huston, 1994). Die Ergebnisse der Simulation zeigen, dass das Modell sowohl die klassischen Befunde zur Konfliktlösung und anpassung (z.B. Gratton, Coles, & Donchin, 1992), als auch das in den empirischen Studien gefundene kontinuierliche Datenmuster von Entscheidungsprozessen reproduziert. Die empirischen Befunde und die Ergebnisse der Modellierung bestätigen somit die postulierte dynamische Hypothese, dass sich Effekte auf verschiedenen Zeitskalen gegenseitig bedingen und einander hervorbringen. Dies verdeutlicht den komplementären Wert des dynamischen Ansatzes zum modulorientierten Ansatz, welcher vielfach in der Neuroökonomie verfolgt wird. Der hier entwickelte DST-basierte Ansatz bietet somit sowohl ein komplementäres Denkmodell, welches wie der modulorientierte Ansatz eine Verbindung zwischen den Phänomenen auf neuronaler und Verhaltensebene herstellt, als auch neue empirische Methoden zur dynamischen Erforschung von Entscheidungen. Daraus wird abschließend eine Fokuserweiterung für die zukünftige Forschung abgeleitet: zum einen auf die kontinuierlichen Prozesse, welche zu einer Entscheidung führen, und zum anderen auf die Interaktionsdynamik dieser Prozesse. Die Arbeit schließt mit dem Bild eines Entscheidungsprozesses als einer selbstorganisierten, metastabilen Balance (z.B. Kelso, 1995) bei der Lösung verschiedener Entscheidungsdilemmata (Goschke, 2003)

Soient D (les données) et M (les modules) deux ensemble de relations binaires sur un ensemble fini d'objets X. le but de cette thèse est l'étude, d'un point de vue axiomatiques, des (D,M)-procédures (ou multiprocédures) c'est à dire des applications qui à tout sous-ensemble fini de D associent un (ou plusieurs) élément de M. La première partie contient la caractérisation axiomatique des procédures et multiprocédures qui ne dépendent que des matrices de préférences ainsi que la caractérisation de ces matrices pour différents ensemble de données. La seconde partie est une étude d'une classe de multiprocédures qui généralisent la notion de fonction de choix. Enfin, dans la troisème partie, sont développées les notions de procédures et de multiprocédures prudentes ainsi que les variantes séquentielles de la procédure de Borda.

Die Dissertation thematisiert die kontextbezogene Präferenzbildung von Konsumenten. Aufsatz 1 untersucht das Substitutionsverhalten von Konsumenten in Out-of-Stock Situationen unter Berücksichtigung des Einflusses von Promotions. Die Ergebnisse zweier Online-Studien zeigen, dass sowohl Phantome als auch Promotions die Dominanzstruktur eines Choicesets verändern und somit zu systematischen Verschiebungen der relativen Präferenzen führen. Aufsatz 2 diskutiert, ob Kontexteffekte in einem hypothetischen Entscheidungsumfeld mit rein imaginären Kaufentscheidungen im Vergleich zu verbindlichen Entscheidungen mit realen Zahlungen systematisch überschätzt werden. Die empirischen Resultate belegen, dass der Ähnlichkeitseffekt in hypothetischen Studien signifikant höher ist als in Erhebungen unter Verwendung von realen Marken und verbindlichen Kaufentscheidungen inklusive tatsächlicher Zahlungsverpflichtungen für die gewählten Produkte. Aufsatz 3 untersucht, ob der „reversed similarity effect“, als die Tendenz von Konsumenten bei der Nichtverfügbarkeit von bevorzugten Produkten solche Substitute zu wählen, die der nichtverfügbaren Wahloption ähnlich sind, auch in realen Entscheidungsgegebenheiten Gültigkeit besitzt und bestätigt dies anhand von zwei empirischen Studien. Aufsatz 4 analysiert den interaktiven Effekt von Phantomen und Händlerempfehlungen auf die Präferenzbildung bei Onlinekäufen. Es zeigt sich, dass der separate Einfluss beider Faktoren nicht zwangsläufig positiv interagiert. Vielmehr bedingen sich Richtung und Stärke der gemeinsamen Wirkung durch die jeweilige Produktkategorie sowie die empfundene Wichtigkeit der enthaltenen Produktattribute. Aufsatz 5 beschäftigt sich mit Präferenzdeterminanten für biologische Produkte. Mithilfe eines Strukturgleichungsmodells kann belegt werden, dass Gesundheits- sowie Umweltmotive keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Bio-Präferenzen eines Haushalts haben, sondern durch die jeweilige Einstellung zu Bioartikeln moderiert werden.
The doctoral dissertation analyzes context-dependent preference formation of customers with regard to the influence of product- and situation-specific as well as experimental factors. Essay 1 studies preference formation of customers in out-of-stock situations by coevally considering the specific influence of promotions. The results of two online studies reveal that both phantoms and promotions induce changes in the dominance structure of a choice set, thereby systematically affecting customers’ substitution decisions. Essay 2 discusses if context effects are significantly overestimated in binding choice settings that include real payments for test products. The attained results confirm that the similarity effect is significantly higher in purely hypothetical decision environments in contrast to realistic choice setting inclusive of payment obligations for the selected products. Essay 3 attends to the question if the reversed similarity effect – as a customers’ tendency to preferably select very similar substitutes when a desired item is temporarily unavailable – also holds true in market-like choice scenarios. The results of a comprehensive online study confirm the existence of the effect in all tested product categories. Essay 4 studies the interactive effect of phantoms, i.e. unavailable choice options, and recommendations on directing customers’ choice in online purchase decisions. It can be demonstrated that the factors’ separate influence does not necessarily add up when appearing within the same choice scenario. Instead boundary conditions of the factors’ interaction are identified. Essay 5 seeks to identify determinants of customers’ preference for organic products. The results of PLS structural equation modelling show that health- as well as environmental motives do not have a direct effect on relative preferences for organic items but that their influence is fully mediated by one’s attitude towards organically produced articles.

碩士
義守大學
資訊管理學系碩士班
93
Decision-makers are often met with many decision-making problems which are complex and uncertain in daily life. Due to this, it is very difficult for them to make a proper selection or decision based on individual subjective judgement. With closer cooperation between the decision-makers and schemers, the actual demands of problems can be realized. Therefore, this study proposes a fuzzy decision-making method to evaluate non- quantitative fuzzy decision problems. First, when encountering decision-making problems of fuzzy multi-criteria, decision-makers evaluate candidates in terms of criteria importance. High important criteria are selected as the evaluation index by using the TOPSIS method and linguistic variables which have already been set. Second, this study conducts the performance evaluation for all projects to acquire the whole fuzzy evaluation value of each project. And finally, this study utilizes a rough sets theory to cluster the candidates after defuzzination. According to the results of those clusters, this model gives the decision-maker a point of reference. This study proposes a qualitative multi-criteria evaluation method to evaluate qualitative decision problems with multiple qualitative criteria and multiple decision-makers (experts). This study uses two non-quantitative evaluations as examples: (1) qualitative multi-criteria evaluation for a bank’s examination of the evaluation of loan applicants’ credit; and (2) partial-quantitative multi-criteria evaluation for restaurant service examination. According to the algorithm of a fuzzy decision-making method and rough sets theory, this study introduces an objective evaluation model and offers references for further study by other scholars.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)
Many authors, critics, and policy makers question the presence of a unified grand strategy with which the United States has striven toward in recent years. This is a topic worthy of pursuit since such a strategy is responsible for identifying how this nation intends to accomplish its goals. This thesis defines what, if any, grand strategy the United States is currently pursuing. It observes several prominent theories of grand strategy, from both the realist and liberal perspectives. This analysis is set in context of historical grand strategy decisions since World War II and uses the framework of Taiwan as the case study. The thesis then compares the three theories, Selective Engagement, Offshore Balancing, and the Liberal Milieu and their recommendations to real-world activities of the United States with a focus primarily on military deployments and national objectives. The study reveals that of the three in question, the Liberal Milieu grand strategy is the only one that is supported by ongoing deployments in the East Asia region as well as by the national rhetoric which define our policy objectives.

abstract: Political party identification has an immense influence on shaping individual attitudes and processes of reasoning to the point where otherwise knowledgeable people endorse political conspiracies that support one's political in-group and simultaneously disparage an out-group. Although recent research has explored this tendency among partisans, less is known about how Independents respond in comparison. Previous research fails to identify the Independent as a unique type of voter, but rather categorizes this group as ostensibly partisan, not a separate phenomenon to investigate. However, most Independents purport neutrality and, by recent polls, are becoming a substantial body worthy of concerted focus. Many questions arise about who Independents really are. For example, do all who identify as Independent behave in a similar manner? Are Independents ideologically different than what is represented by a partisan label? Is the Independent category a broad term for something entirely misunderstood? A thorough investigation into the greater dynamics of the political environment in the United States is an enormous undertaking, requiring a robust interdisciplinary approach beyond the focus and intent of this study. Therefore, this study begins the journey toward understanding these phenomena; do Independents, as a whole, uniformly respond to statements about political conspiracy theories? To explore these possibilities, explicit responses are bypassed to evaluate the implicit appeal of political conspiracy theories. An action dynamics (mouse-tracking) approach, a data rich method that records the response process, demonstrates Independents are not in fact a homogeneous group, but rather seem to fall into two groups: non-partisan leaning and partisan leaning. The analysis exposes that relative to the baseline and control stimuli: (1) Non-leaning Independents reveal an increased susceptibility to implicitly endorse bi-partisan directed conspiracy theories when compared to leaners. (2) Republican-leaners demonstrate a stronger susceptibility to endorse right-wing aligned conspiracy theories (against Barack Obama), similar to Republican partisans. (3) Democrat-leaners, unlike Democrat partisans, do not demonstrate any particular susceptibility to implicitly endorse either right/left-wing aligned conspiracy theories (against Barack Obama or George W. Bush). Drawing from major theories from social, political, and cognitive psychology will contribute to an understanding of these phenomena. Concluding remarks include study limitations and future directions.
Dissertation/Thesis
Masters Thesis Psychology 2017

碩士
國防大學政治作戰學院
政治研究所
103
The US "Military Decision-making Process" is a tool to assist the commander and staff to implement decisions on the battlefield, formally introduced in the ROC since 2004 to become the new ROC Army "Commander and Staff Operating Procedure." Still in use, although most agree that this is a scientific, functional operational plan output step, compared to the old procedures, the new procedure is too cumbersome and time-consuming. Moreover, the new Command and Staff Operating Procedure has Difficulties applying the non-combat missions, causing more difficulties in promoting it. Unlike related research focusing on procedure tool and operating techniques, this paper argues that the difficulties of Commander and Staff Operating Procedure can be observed by a bird's eye view with theory. Therefore, from the perspective of Decision-making Theories, and by combing through the history of the development of the US Army and the ROC Army this paper explores the logic, diversity, and evolution of US Military Decision-making Process and the ROC Army Commander and Staff Operating Procedure. This paper also pointed out the flaws and problems of the new ROC Army Commander and Staff Operating Procedure when it introduced and the reasons why it was difficult to be applied to various missions. The purpose of this paper is to provide new perspectives for the construction and research of the ROC military theories.

The importance of trust in Electronic Commerce (EC) has been addressed for about two decades and various theories have been applied to investigate the issue. In spite of a consensus among researchers of trust in a website being a risky decision, they have neither applied decision making theories (e.g. two systems of reasoning) in the context nor created a risky situation when examining their hypotheses about trust in EC. Instead, the decision is implicitly assumed to be deliberative although not enough evidences have been collected to support the assumption. An in-lab experiment was conducted to investigate the above shortcomings in the literature. Findings show that unlike the current belief, intuition (and not deliberation), is the dominant decision making process when trusting an unknown website in a risky situation. The level of trust is significantly different when risk is not involved. In addition, one of the well-established constructs, “situational decision making to trust”, was not confirmed by the collected data in the risky situation. The results conflict with EC and trust literature and clarify the crucial role of risk in decision making to trust. Hence, the studies that have measured and validated trust and related constructs without the actual risky situation might need to be reconsidered.

The theoretical part of this diploma thesis consists of four basic areas which are crucial for better understanding of profession choice difficulties and subsequently provides an introduction to the second part of the thesis - the empirical part. In the first chapter, the reader will be informed about the definition of the profession choice, its historical development, which covers a pretty wide context, in which the profession choice is being accomplished. The following chapter deals with career development theories focusing on personality, development theories targeting career and theories solely focused on social influences effecting the career development. The last two chapters deal with an adolescence period which plays the key role in the further career path of the individual. There is also a chapter describing and sorting difficulties while choosing a profession. The aim of the empirical part is to describe the development of profession choice difficulties at the end of secondary education - the period of life which is considered by many authors to be vitally important for the adolescent profession development. Hypotheses are verified by comparison of the results of the questionnaire that investigates profession choice difficulties in between third, fourth and fourth grade - directly before...

This dissertation examines different aspects involved in the formation of psychologists’ expert opinion in the Portuguese criminal justice system, more precisely, as this opinion is reflected in assessment reports. The present dissertation is comprised of three qualitative studies, the first sought to provide a general portrait of a sample of 106 forensic psychological reports as to their overall quality as measured in terms of relevance and coherence. Results show that the formal markers of quality are present in the sample analysed, a certain number of weaknesses have been observed, notably concerning the internal coherence of the reports as well as the relevance of the information reported on. The second study explored the opinions of 17 Portuguese judges and state prosecutors concerning the use they make of this type of forensic report. It appears that they consider these reports to be useful and very credible, specially so when they have been produced under the auspices of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences, which is the state forensic institution. Furthermore, it appears that judges and prosecutors were particularly interested in data that allowed for a personalised portrait of the assessee. The third study sought to better comprehend the conceptual bases on which psychologists construct their reports. To this end, an exploratory study was undertaken with a sample of key-actors; the analysis of their interviews shows that they define their judicial mandate as well as the basic concepts that are associated to this mandate in different ways. A theoretical framework provided by an implicit theories model was used to help understand these results.
Cette thèse présente trois études qualitatives qui concernent différents aspects de la formulation de l’opinion experte chez des psychologues forensiques, tel que cette opinion se révèle dans leurs rapports d’expertise psycho-légale. La première étude porte sur la qualité d’un vaste échantillon de rapports d’expertise en se concentrant sur des critères de pertinence et de cohérence comme mesures de leur qualité générale. Cette étape a permis de dresser le portrait de 106 rapports forensiques produits au Portugal et d’établir qu’ils rencontrent les critères de qualité formelle établis tout en présentant certaines faiblesses en ce qui concerne la pertinence des informations utilisées et la cohérence interne du rapport La deuxième étude explore les opinions de dix-sept juges et procureurs de la République portugaise et s’interroge plus particulièrement sur leurs perspectives concernant l’utilité ce type de rapports d’experts dans leur travail en cour criminelle. Il appert que ces derniers leur accordent une grande crédibilité en particulier lorsqu’ils ont été produits par les experts de l’Institut portugais de médicine légale et sciences forensiques, l’institution forensique nationale affiliée au Ministère de la Justice. De plus, il se dégage des entretiens que les juges et les procureurs sont particulièrement intéressés par les données qui permettent de dresser un portrait individualisé de la personne évaluée. La troisième étude vise à mieux saisir les bases conceptuelles sur lesquelles les psychologues experts construisent leurs rapports. Pour ce faire, une étude exploratoire auprès d’un échantillon d’acteurs-clés a été menée qui a permis de dégager un certain nombre de constats, notamment que ceux-ci définissent leurs mandats judiciaires ainsi que les concepts fondamentaux qui y sont associés de manière différente. Un cadre théorique basé sur le modèle des théories implicites a été utilisé pour mieux comprendre ces résultats.

The paper focuses on ethic issues and dilemmas which are connected with hospice care and makes emphasis on the actual problem of dying process and death alone. The thesis has a theoretical characteristic.