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1
Apps, Peter, and n/a. "Debt Crises, IMF Policies and Structural Inequality in the Third World." Griffith University. School of Humanities, 2003. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20031010.143327.
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The neo-liberal policies of liberalization and deregulation, as utilized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its dealings with countries of the developing world, tend to facilitate the conditions for financial crisis. This can be traced by examining the economic crises of Mexico in 1982 and 1994/95, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998 and looking at the main causes and triggers of these crises. It is evident that the financial vulnerability that these countries suffered from existed due to, and not in spite of, these policy prescriptions. The IMF continues to present these policies as proven successes - a view that this dissertation contests. Further to this, the policies that the Fund uses are formulated for use in semi-peripheral economies and have little relationship to the actual economic environments of peripheral countries such as those of sub-Saharan Africa or Papua New Guinea. The ideology of free-markets and globalization is seen as unassailable by the IMF. By encouraging countries to remain part of the global financial system through debt rescheduling and open-markets policies, the IMF holds an increasingly fragile economic environment together. This dissertation formulates and tests four hypotheses in relation to Mexico, Asia, Russia and Papua New Guinea and the periphery. These are - (1) If there are periods of 'irrational exuberance' among investors in Third World debt, these are likely to contribute to debt crises. (2) If IMF policies are implemented in the Third World as dictated, then their primary benefits will accrue to the elites in those countries and in the developed world. (3) If Third World countries open their economies to foreign capital, then they are more likely to experience debt crises. (4) If IMF policies are implemented in peripheral countries, then they are even less likely to be successful than in semi-peripheral countries.
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Apps, Peter. "Debt Crises, IMF Policies and Structural Inequality in the Third World." Thesis, Griffith University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367067.
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The neo-liberal policies of liberalization and deregulation, as utilized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its dealings with countries of the developing world, tend to facilitate the conditions for financial crisis. This can be traced by examining the economic crises of Mexico in 1982 and 1994/95, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998 and looking at the main causes and triggers of these crises. It is evident that the financial vulnerability that these countries suffered from existed due to, and not in spite of, these policy prescriptions. The IMF continues to present these policies as proven successes - a view that this dissertation contests. Further to this, the policies that the Fund uses are formulated for use in semi-peripheral economies and have little relationship to the actual economic environments of peripheral countries such as those of sub-Saharan Africa or Papua New Guinea. The ideology of free-markets and globalization is seen as unassailable by the IMF. By encouraging countries to remain part of the global financial system through debt rescheduling and open-markets policies, the IMF holds an increasingly fragile economic environment together. This dissertation formulates and tests four hypotheses in relation to Mexico, Asia, Russia and Papua New Guinea and the periphery. These are - (1) If there are periods of 'irrational exuberance' among investors in Third World debt, these are likely to contribute to debt crises. (2) If IMF policies are implemented in the Third World as dictated, then their primary benefits will accrue to the elites in those countries and in the developed world. (3) If Third World countries open their economies to foreign capital, then they are more likely to experience debt crises. (4) If IMF policies are implemented in peripheral countries, then they are even less likely to be successful than in semi-peripheral countries.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Humanities
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van, Vliet Lisette. "Debt-for-Nature Swaps : transnational environmental politics in a changing global political economy or NGOs, LDCs and IOUs." Thesis, Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/128737.
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Debt-for-nature swaps are a new phenomenon in world politics. Initiated as a response
to third world debt problems and the urgent need for environmental protection, debt-for-nature
swaps represent a very interesting development in the areas of international finance,
international negotiation and international roles for non-state actors. To date, at least nineteen
swaps have taken place, and according to some observers, they fit a niche that will exist for
some time to come.
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Bruce, Colin (Colin Ashley). "Contractual unenforceability, external debt renegociation and the effective incidence of the burden of debt service." Thesis, McGill University, 1986. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=72816.
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Abendanon, Lucille. "Debt relief for economics or debt relief for the people? : a critical analysis of the heavily indebted poor countries initiative." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/53347.
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Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The HIPC Initiative offers qualifying heavily indebted poor countries the opportunity to renege on their debt obligations in return for an emphatic commitment to poverty reduction and reform. This dissertation assesses the effectiveness of the HIPC Initiative in light of the fact that one third of the world's population continues to live on an average of US$1 per day. In evaluating the HIPC Initiative one simple question is posed: taking into consideration the abject poverty experienced by over a billion people in the developing world, and the urgency with which it must be addressed, is the HIPC Initiative extensive enough, deep enough or broad enough to effectively challenge worldwide poverty? Using quantitative and qualitative research methods, the dissertation investigates this question by examining the divergent points of view offered by the World Bank and IMF on the one hand, and NGOs on the other as they comment on the most hotly debated issues surrounding the effectiveness of the HIPC Initiative. The analysis leads us to an evaluation of the following issues: establishing debt sustainability to qualify for HIPC relief; the issue of conditionality and the use of poverty reduction strategy papers; funding the HIPC Initiative; the likelihood of HIPCs escaping the debt trap after HIPC relief; and finally, how the HIPC Initiative is contributing to attaining the Millennium Development Goals is evaluated. After probing the stances of the World Bank and IMF, and the contrasting views of NGOs the conclusions indicate that the HIPC Initiative is neither extensive, deep nor broad enough to effectively challenge poverty, or to provide indebted poor countries with a lasting escape from the burden of unsustainable debt.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Inisiatief bied aan arm lande met 'n groot skuldlas, wat kwalifiseer vir hulp, die geleentheid om hul skuldverpligtings af te las in ruil vir 'n definitiewe verbintenis tot armoede-vermindering en -hervorming. Hierdie verhandeling evalueer die doeltreffendheid van die HIPC Inisiatief teen die agtergrond van die feit dat een derde van die wêreld se bevolking op 'n gemiddelde van een Amerikaanse Dollar per dag oorleef. Hierdie evaluering van die HIPC Inisiatief stel 'n eenvoudige vraag: Is die HIPC Inisiatief voldoende en uitgebreid genoeg om die uitdaging van wêreldwye armoede aan te spreek indien 'n mens die uiterste armoede van meer as 'n biljoen mense in ontwikkelende gebiede in ag neem, sowel as die dringendheid waarmee dit aangespreek moet word? Deur van kwantitatiewe en kwalitatiewe navorsingsmetodes gebruik te maak, ondersoek die verhandeling hierdie vraag deur uiteenlopende gesigspunte van die Wêreldbank en die Internasionale Monitêre Fonds (IMF) aan die een kant, en Nie- Regerings Orginisasies (NRO's) s'n aan die ander kant, te ondersoek aan die hand van hul kommentaar op die belangrikste kwessies oor die doeltreffendheid van die HIPC Inisiatief. Hierdie ontleding lei tot 'n evaluering van die volgende kwessies: bepaling van lande se potensiaal om met terugbetalings vol te hou ten einde vir hulp deur die HIPC te kwalifiseer; die kwessie van voorwaardelikheid en die gebruik van armoedeverligtingstrategieë; befondsing van die HIPC Inisiatief; die moontlikheid dat die HIPC's die skuldstrikke na toepassing van HIPC-bystand sal ontsnap; en laastens, hoe die HIPC Inisiatief se bydrae tot die bereiking van die Millenium Ontwikkelingsdoelwitte geëvalueer word. Die standpunte van die Wêreld Bank en die IMF sowel as die teengestelde sienings van die NRO's word ondersoek. Die gevolgtrekking toon dat dat die HIPC Insiatief nie uitgebreid, diep of breed genoeg is om armoede doeltreffend hok te slaan nie, of om skuldlastige arm lande te help om finaal van hul skuldlas te ontsnap nie.
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Orie, Kenneth Kanu. "Managing the less developed countries' debt problem." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/27354.
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The underlying problem in debt management has been the allocation of the global adjustment burden between the creditors and the debtors and to make them less sensitive to the colossal economic sacrifice attendant to the adjustment. The Brady Plan seems to strike a balance between the opposing interests of the parties involved. But the question of whether such a balance can be sustained in the long run is still open.
All the debt management strategies evaluated in this work seem inadequate in so far as they could not abate the recurrence of the problem. But they nevertheless, appear to be the best that can be offered in the face of the reality of the world economic situation.
The susceptibility of the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) to foreign indebtedness is rooted in the poor structure and relatively undiversified nature of their economies. Thus the economic growth of these countries seems a panacea to the debt problem. To this end, the LDCs have to ensure that their economies undergo vigorous economic reforms congruent with the present and prospective realities of the world economy, aimed at lifting supply constraints, attracting foreign investments and encouraging debt-equity swaps which seems to be making a considerable inroad to effective debt management in that it saves debtor countries steep foreign exchange commitment needed for international trade and debt servicing.
The economic interdependence of nations makes the success of this strategy contingent upon a 3% minimum GDP growth rate in the industrialized countries to generate not only good market for LDCs’ tradeables but also to forestall exogenous factors that promote the recurrence of the problem.
Clearly, this matter is not within the province of international law. The problem is basically economic and must be practically handled and resolved in the same context. In the context of the debt problem and management, international law cannot make possible what is economically impossible.
Debtors are therefore advised to save themselves the problem of international indebtedness by matching expenditures with available resources at all times while the creditor countries themselves tamper their economic policies to check the exogenous factors which promote the recurrence of the problem.Law, Peter A. Allard School of
Graduate
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Bourget, Bernard. "Country risk analysis : a survey of external debt service capacity indicators." Thesis, McGill University, 1986. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=65534.
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Elnasri, Amani Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "The impact of debt relief in low-income countries." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Economics, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/26779.
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The perceived lack of conclusive quantitative evidence on the macroeconomic effects of debt relief in low-income countries has generally blurred the image of debt relief efforts and left the issues of its effectiveness and efficiency open to debate and dispute. This thesis seeks to shed more light on the subject by providing some further empirical evidence. This objective is achieved by performing an empirical investigation of two effects of debt relief. First, the study examines the debt relief-new borrowing relationship in a multivariable regression framework. The results that emerge suggest that, on average, debt relief can be beneficial in reducing the future new borrowing of Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs). This conclusion, to some extent, is in line with the goals of HIPCs debt relief initiatives in reducing external debt burdens of those countries to sustainable levels. However, it presents a challenge to the views of William Easterly on the ???perverse incentive effects??? of ???continuing waves??? of debt relief that are said to lead to further debt accumulation of a similar magnitude to replace old cancelled debt. Second, the analysis explores the influence of debt relief on domestic investment behaviour in developing countries. Debt relief is found to have a positive effect on domestic investment in countries with good policy environments. This result suggests that debt relief would be more effective in promoting domestic investment if it were more cautiously conditioned on sound policy frameworks.
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Shepherdson, Ian Charles. "The secondary market in less developed countries' debt : development, efficiency and debt reduction." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1992. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/11035.
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The thesis describes and analyses, within a framework of qualitative market development theory, the development of the Secondary Market in the bank debts of less developed countries. A survey of market participants is presented and analysed. The theory of financial market efficiency is assessed, and secondary market price data is used to test the theory in the secondary market context. Market-based debt reduction is described in theory and in practice, with a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the Brady Initiative. Simulations and sensitivity analysis of the likely effect on debt servicing ability for the first three beneficiaries of Brady debt restructuring are presented. Suggestions for further research are presented in the concluding chapter.
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DeusdarÃ, Francisca Maria Muniz. "Economic growth and government debt in the countries of OECD." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2013. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=11518.
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nÃo hÃThis work was developed with the aim of contributing to the discussion about the impact of the public debt on the economic growth of the OECD countries. Different theoretical and empirical work suggest an effect of economic stagnation when there is an increase in the debt, however, and on the other hand, many authors argue that a rise in the growth strengthens the economy by attracting new investors. There is no consensus in the literature on the subject. This work was developed with the main purpose to provide data that may help clarify the debt and growth paradox. To capture the direction of those two variables as well as the mutual influence of this movement, we used in our study an econometric vector auto-regressive type model â VAR, with annual data from 16 out of the 32 countries considered as advanced economies that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development â OECD, during the period from 1995 to 2011. The results presented indicate a weak causality going from growth to debt. Thresholds concerning public debt have not been identified. It has been found out that a low economic growth of the countries within the sample, under the Granger sense, causes bigger Debt/GDP ratios.
Este trabalho foi elaborado com o objetivo de contribuir com a discussÃo sobre o impacto da dÃvida pÃblica no crescimento econÃmico nos paÃses da OCDE. Diferentes trabalhos teÃricos e empÃricos propÃem um efeito de estagnaÃÃo da economia quando hà uma elevaÃÃo da dÃvida, entretanto e, por outro lado, muitos autores defendem que uma elevaÃÃo no crescimento fortalece a economia atraindo novos investidores. NÃo hà consenso na literatura sobre o assunto. Com a finalidade principal de fornecer dados que possam ajudar a esclarecer o paradoxo dÃvida e crescimento este trabalho foi desenvolvido. Para capturar a direÃÃo destas duas variÃveis, bem como a influÃncia mÃtua deste movimento, no nosso estudo foi utilizado um modelo economÃtrico do tipo autorregressivo vetorial â VAR, com dados anuais de 16 dos 32 paÃses considerados de economia avanÃada que compÃem a OrganizaÃÃo para CooperaÃÃo e Desenvolvimento EconÃmico â OCDE, durante o perÃodo de 1995 a 2011. Os resultados apresentados indicam uma fraca causalidade indo do crescimento para dÃvida. NÃo foram encontrados limiares para dÃvida pÃblica. Foi encontrado que um baixo crescimento econÃmico dos paÃses da amostra causa, no sentido de Granger, maiores razÃes DÃvida/PIB.
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Bas, Tugba. "Capital structure and debt maturity choices of firms in developing countries." Thesis, City University London, 2012. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/1073/.
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The aim of the thesis is to examine the leverage and debt maturity levels and the determinants of capital structure and debt maturity of firms in developing countries. We use World Bank Enterprise Survey data covering 10,839 firms in 24 countries located in five regions. The survey provides information about balance sheet and income statements items allowing us to examine whether capital structure theory is portable to small firms in developing countries. We find that the leverage and debt maturity levels of small and large firms are different. Leverage and debt maturities are lower for small firms despite their high asset tangibility and profitability ratios. We attribute this to the economic and financial environment of the country. Small firms do not consider profitability when making external financing decisions. Firm level determinants are important for large firms regarding capital structure and debt maturity decisions. However, most of the economic and financial environment variables become insignificant. Therefore, the main difference between small and large firms is derived from the impact of the economic and financial environment of a country. Most of the economic and financial environment variables do not have statistically significant effects on the leverage and debt maturity decisions of large firms. We attribute this to large firms’ easy access to both domestic and international financial markets. Hence, if local governments provide better fiscal and monetary policies and a friendly business environment, small firms can amplify their leverage and debt maturity.
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Karacimen, Elif. "Political economy of consumer debt in developing countries : evidence from Turkey." Thesis, SOAS, University of London, 2013. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/15947/.
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This dissertation analyses the rise in consumer debt in developing countries over the last decade by drawing on the case of Turkey. It adopts a theoretical framework based on a political economy approach and examines the macroeconomic, institutional, political, and historical environment in which the rise in consumer debt has taken place. By locating the factors of indebtedness within an historically determined socioeconomic context the dissertation demonstrates the specific character of the rise in consumer credit in the age of financialisation. It is shown that consumer credit has grown markedly and its rise has been associated with related changes in the socioeconomic conditions within which the credit system operates as well as in the character of borrower-lender relations and in the perceptions and attitudes towards credit use within society. Analysis of the Turkish economy in the post-2001 crisis further shows that the interplay between the real and financial sectors has boosted consumer debt in the country. There is much publicly available evidence indicating the rapid expansion of consumer credit to low-income wage earners in Turkey. The empirical section of the dissertation focuses on how and why workers have become increasingly involved with the financial system. The research is based on empirical material collected through questionnaires and interviews with workers in the metal sector of industry. The results show that consumer debt in Turkey has become a part of the daily life of workers as a consequence of, first, growing dependence on debt to support basic reproduction of labour power and, second, of the aggressive marketing strategies of banks towards consumers. Further, the results provide evidence of a link between workers' debt and the type of wage employment by demonstrating that insecurity of employment and income have increased the tendency to borrow, and thus the vulnerability of workers to debt. Finally, there is an unequal power relationship between banks and workers which has allowed banks to extract profits out of wages and salaries.
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Sedghi, Khorasgani Hossein. "Essays on financial stability in EMEAP countries." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/10069.
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This thesis analyses financial stability in eight members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP) economies. One of the factors that may increase financial imbalances (and hence it affects financial stability of an economy) is the accumulated outstanding debt of the economic agents. For example, the corporate sector’s outstanding debt can negatively affect activity of lenders and hence the capabilities of the economy. Since banks are important financial intermediaries in most financial systems, the financial status of banking sector is also important to analyse financial stability of a country. Macroeconomic conditions and financial system structure are some of the important factors that can affect financial conditions (financial soundness) of banks and hence the banking sector. Financial soundness of banks can secure the stability of the financial system. Chapter 2 shows that financial imbalances that arise from accumulated outstanding debt within the corporate sector have a negative effect on the technical capabilities (total factor productivity) of the economy. Therefore, monetary authority (central bank) should control over the debt level. To address this, chapter 2 focuses on the design of monetary policy rule for a small open economy in the context of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. This model is extended to show the effects of financial imbalances on the economy. Real exchange rate is another important factor that affects the firm’s real marginal cost, aggregate supply and aggregate demand as discussed in this chapter. The derived optimal monetary policy rule indicates that the monetary authority responds to financial imbalances through output gap when financial imbalances exist due to accumulated outstanding debt. Moreover, the optimal policy rule shows that the response of the monetary authority to exchange rate movements is indirect, through the domestic inflation and output gap. Chapter 3 describes the effect of the financial system structure on financial stability through investigating the financial soundness of the banking sector. Bank financial soundness is the measure of the stability of the financial system and is defined by return on assets, equity capital-asset ratio and return volatility. The first two items increase financial soundness, whereas return volatility decreases financial soundness of a bank. The structure of the financial system is described as market-based or bank-based. Given interrelations between financial sectors and between economies of the EMEAP countries, chapter 3 uses the global (infinite dimensional) vector autoregressive (VAR) model that has been proposed recently to estimate the generalised impulse responses of financial stability measure. Results show that the market-based financial system can increase financial stability through increasing financial soundness of the banking system. Chapter 4 uses nonperforming loans (NPLs) (as one of the main factors behind Asian financial crisis in 1997/8) to analyse financial soundness of banks. NPLs determine loans default rates that decreases banks’ financial soundness. Chapter 4 tests the resistance of the banking system of the EMEAP countries to large macroeconomic shocks (stresses) in a stress-test framework, computing frequency distributions of default rates in three main macroeconomic scenarios (baseline model, stressed real GDP growth and stressed real interest rate). Default rate indicates the possible loss of banks and hence it is an indicator of credit risk which weakens banks’ financial strength. The stress-test indicates that stressing real GDP growth with negative extreme shocks leads to an increase in frequency of higher default rates (in comparison with the baseline model), whereas positive shock to real interest rate may secure financial stability through increasing the frequency of lower default rates and decreasing frequency of higher default rate.
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Ozcan, Banu. "Market convergence, catastrophe risk and sovereign borrowing : an empirical analysis for emerging market countries /." Thesis, Connect to Dissertations & Theses @ Tufts University, 2005.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2005.Chair: Laurent L. Jacque. Submitted to the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 100-114). Access restricted to members of the Tufts University community. Also available via the World Wide Web;
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Paret, Anne-Charlotte. "Fiscal vulnerability and sustainability issues in emerging market countries." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0126.
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L’objectif de cette thèse est de mieux appréhender les déterminants du risque souverain et de la soutenabilité budgétaire des pays émergents, afin d’identifier les éléments qui permettraient à ces pays de se protéger d’un tel risque. Nous mettons en place des outils économétriques et théoriques adaptés aux particularités de ces pays. Ces derniers sont ensuite déclinés pour tenter d’anticiper les épisodes de défaut souverain sévère via un modèle à changement de régime de type "early warning", pour effectuer des simulations stochastiques de ratio de dette souveraine à moyen-terme et évaluer les effets de politiques budgétaires définies à cet horizon et enfin, pour caractériser la distribution du ratio de dette externe de ces pays. Cette thèse entend ainsi identifier les pays qui semblent les plus exposés au risque souverain et définir des recommandations de politique économique qui prennent en compte l’hétérogénéité au sein du «bloc» des pays émergents et au cours du tempsThe objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the determinants of sovereign default and medium-term sustainability inemerging market countries, so as to define ways through which they may protect themselves from these sovereign risks. We provide econometric tools and a theoretical model that are adapted to these countries’ specific features. This aims to anticipate severe sovereign default episodes through a regime switching early-warning type model, to assess medium-term public debt prospects and the impact of defined fiscal policies through stochastic debt simulations and to characterize the distribution of the external debt ratio of emerging market countries. It eventually enables to identify the countries that are the most exposed to sovereign risk and to draw up a set of policy recommendations, allowing for a differentiation within this heterogeneous block of countries and through time
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Swaray, Raymond Boima. "Primary commodity exposure and risk management for producers in less developed countries." Thesis, University of York, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.341523.
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Udagawa, Mitsuhiro. "Debt relief in international society : international responses to the debt problem of the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC)." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.435633.
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Nasa, Baseerit. "Investigating the debt-growth relationship for developing countries : a multi-country econometric analysis." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4811.
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Debt which emerged as a result of excessive lending by the advanced nations to disorganised and badly managed economies is oppressing the world’s poorest and most vulnerable whilst enriching wealthy creditors. This study investigates the relationship between debt and the economic growth of 56 heavily indebted poor countries from 1969 to 2000 in three empirical chapters. The first empirical chapter examines the non-linearity of the debt-growth relationship, i.e. it estimates the threshold below which debt enhances growth whilst above which debt prevents growth. The preferred endogenous threshold model of Hansen (1996, 2000) suggests that debt becomes detrimental to growth when debt-to- GDP ratio approaches 45%. Hence a country’s debt is considered sustainable, in the sense that it affects growth positively and can be serviced without any difficulty, as long as its debt-to-GDP ratio is below 45% threshold. An alternative to threshold concept of debt sustainability is the concept of intertemporal sustainability, which defines debt as sustainable providing that actual debt level equals the present discounted value of future trade balance surpluses. This, in terms of the time series properties, implies that debt is sustainable if there is long-run economic relationship between debt stock and output. The second empirical chapter investigates this using numerous integration and cointegration methods. The results from the best tests suggest that debt is unsustainable. Nonetheless, these methodologies have low power and categorise countries into a simple dichotomy of sustainable vs. unsustainable, whereas in reality sustainability is a continuum measure. Thus, the final empirical chapter proposes the use of persistence techniques for assessing debt sustainability, i.e. estimating a Debt Sustainability Index (DSI). Estimates of the DSI conclude that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have less sustainable debt than Sub Saharan African (SSA) countries. Furthermore, the oil price, the interest rate and the commodity price shocks have played a substantial role in causing the debt crisis but the contribution of other factors unidentified is larger. The oil shocks are the most important for both groups whilst the interest rate is the least important for LAC and the commodity price for SSA.
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Alami, Randa. "The political economy of official external debt formation in Arab countries 1975-1990." Thesis, SOAS, University of London, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.321902.
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Gunarsa, Singgih. "Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and Economic Performance in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis." Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/394725.
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Since the Global Financial Crisis, interest in the use of fiscal policy by governments to stabilise economic activity, boost economic growth and achieve development objectives has grown. Consequently, however, governments run budget deficits which, in many countries, result in increased government debt. Since many governments in developing economies run budget deficits, the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy and public debt sustainability remain a serious concern.
This thesis is an empirical study of four sub-topics of fiscal policy using macroeconomic time-series data from developing countries. The first chapter explores the decomposition of government expenditure in developing countries. It examines the impact of government expenditure composition based on function to economic growth using datasets from developing countries from 1973 to 2015. We applied a dynamic panel model approach, using system GMM, to study which component of government expenditure has a significant impact on growth. The results indicate that government expenditure in developing Asian countries has no significant association with growth. In terms of composition, public capital spending is positively associated with economic growth abstracting from possible offsetting effects that arise from how spending is financed (taxes or borrowing). Government interest payments show a negative relationship with growth in developing economies. Using a similar baseline model, the study also estimates sectoral government composition. The results show that public spending on education sector is negative and significant to growth. The negative coefficient on spending in the education sector implies that there is inefficient spending in this sector of both allocation and outcome. On the other hand, in line with the existing theory, public health spending indicates positive association with economic growth in developing economies whereas defence spending is insignificant to growth.
The second chapter discusses the impact of fiscal policy namely, public debt and budget deficit on the real interest rate in developing countries from 1990 to 2015. The proposed model for this study is based on the Barro and Modigliani interest rate determination model, with several control variables based on the latest reviews. We employ a semiparametric approach to examine the non-linearity condition of fiscal policy and interest rates, and a dynamic panel model using a system GMM approach for linear estimation. The results show that all semiparametric estimates indicate little relationship between fiscal policy (public debt and budget deficit) and interest rates. Furthermore, the dynamic panel model, using linear regression estimates, finds that, by controlling related variables, both public debt and fiscal deficit correspond to a positive effect on interest rates in developing and emerging countries. The findings imply that higher interest rates may crowd out private consumption and, therefore, dampen the initial positive effect of government expenditure on growth.
Moreover, the effect varies if the interaction model is applied when the dataset is split into subsamples. For instance, the impact of rising public debt on interest rates is more significant under a high budget deficit and low financial depth condition. Similarly, a budget deficit also raises interest rates under a high budget deficit but not significant in low financial depth condition. Overall, the results are theoretically plausible and in line with previous studies.
The third chapter estimates the relationship between public debt and economic growth and tries to identify the effect of the economic crisis using an econometric model based on 25 developing Asian countries from 1970 to 2015. This model is developed from growth accounting relationships, with the inclusion of control variables based on the latest literature. The regression technique in this chapter employs dynamic panel models that have some well-known advantages over typical cross-sectional or time-series approaches. After highlighting key theoretical linkages and previous findings on the public debt-growth nexus, the study found a relatively weak negative relationship from a dynamic panel model. The results imply that a 10% increase in public debt is associated with growth reduction from 0.2% to 0.4%, which is macroeconomically significant.
The fourth and final empirical study in this thesis uses the latest fiscal and macroeconomic data from ten ASEAN countries to investigate their fiscal sustainability. This chapter examines whether Asian countries have satisfied their fiscal sustainability with the application of an intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) model. We also incorporate the impact of an ageing population on the intertemporal budget constraint model and study its effects on fiscal sustainability.
The results show that ASEAN countries require substantial effort to stabilise current debt levels. Using the debt reduction scenario from the IBC model to reduce debt to 25%, Indonesia needs a 1% primary surplus within ten years, whereas Vietnam and Malaysia would need around 3% to 4% primary surplus over GDP. Furthermore, this study also reveals that an ageing population in ASEAN countries has created pressure on fiscal policy through a consequent decrease in labour force growth. Despite relatively strong economic growth in ASEAN economies, our results suggest that substantially larger primary budget balances will be required to ensure future public debt sustainability.
Overall, this thesis lists and investigates a number of issues regarding the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy in developing economies. The thesis suggests three main policy implications that are relevant to the empirical results of the above studies. One is the importance of increasing the quality of public spending, especially in choosing sectors that will benefit from long-term growth. Secondly—in order to minimise future fiscal risk arising from higher world interest rates or the realisation of contingent liabilities—the governments of developing countries must ensure that additional public debt is matched by high quality public spending. This should be done while strengthening budgetary institutions and practice, particularly in managing deficit and public debt. Prudent debt management includes managing the debt portfolio by calculating risk and cost that may increase sovereign credibility and maintain fiscal sustainability. The third main policy implication is developing a deep and liquid domestic market which can make a domestic financial market more resilient to external volatility and also be a potential source of funding.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Dept Account,Finance & Econ
Griffith Business School
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Jaoui, Abdelhak. "Can the Baker plan work?" Virtual Press, 1987. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/490119.
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The purpose of this study was to analyze, using a medium term scenario of three years, the impact 9f the Baker Plan on the economies of fifteen debt laden countries. A central argument of this scenario was to assess whether growth and creditworthiness would be restored in these countries. A model using projections of debt service, imports, exports and capital requirements was developed to test these variables. Baker's package of $29 billion over three years (1985-1988) was contrasted with the model projections. The findings showed that, in the short-term, Baker's proposal will fall short of restoring growth and creditworthiness. However, the supply side policies suggested by Baker Initiative are the right way to go if the indebted countries are to resume growth and creditworthiness in the long run.
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Hasan, Zeeshan. "Foreign debt rescheduling and private investment in LDCs." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 1993. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1342204622.
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Martins, Henry Bola. "Risk management of U.S. banks in less developed countries : a country-risk analysis." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 1990. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/1889/.
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The object of this research is to determine whether U.S. commercial banks could have predicted in advance the debt crises of the developing countries, i.e., whether a particular LDC would reschedule or default on its loans. A secondary purpose was to determine whether the debt crisis was the fault of the banks or the developing countries who reneged on their loan contracts. What do the banks have to do to prevent this from happening? What do they have to do to manage country risk effectively? The study begins with a historical account of the United States banking system to the period of debt rescheduling by the LDCs. It continues by describing the different types of risks in international banking. Next it discusses the theoretical issues of LDC debt, including sustainability of debt policy, optimal level of country borrowing, optimal bank foreign lending, and credit rationing by the banks. This is followed by a description of the regulatory aspects of country risk management. The important issue of country risk management by U.S. banks is next, including a discussion of the various assessment methods used and a review of the major empirical studies that used econometric methods for predicting the incidence of external debt defaults. The empirical research investigates debt rescheduling by less developed countries. Linear discriminant function and logistic discrimination approaches were used to determine the predictive ability of any particular subset of economic variables. The sample comprises data on 37 countries over a period of 10 years, 1974-1983. This period was chosen because it was a time of important economic transition. The results of the discriminant and logistic analyses show modest discriminatory power for predicting the rescheduling of debt of a country with the set of economic predictors used.
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Barnwell, Ménard Jean-Louis. "A semiparametric IV estimation of the government debt/GDP-growth relationship for OECD countries." Mémoire, Université de Sherbrooke, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11143/7935.
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Abstract : In this study, we use an up-to-date econometric method, namely the semiparametric IV estimator, to investigate the functional form of the government debt/GDP-growth relationship for OECD countries. The relationship, characterizing the effect of government debt/GDP levels on the production growth rate, is estimated through an augmented growth model specification for different sub-groups of OECD countries, over the 1971-2010 period. In accordance with previous empirical studies, we find evidence for strong heterogeneity across the estimated functional forms of the different sub-groups. Complex non-linearities best describe the relationship for the complete sample of OECD countries, while a clear inverted U-shaped functional form is depicted for the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) sub-group. Additionally, our results show that most of the non-linear patterns characterizing the functional form for the complete sample can be explained by the PIIGS sub-group. In fact, when we exclude the PIIGS countries from the OECD sample, the estimated debt/GDP-growth relationship becomes almost linear and positive, a result that holds even at high government debt-to-GDP levels. We confirm the suitability of the semiparametric IV estimator, for this specific relationship estimation, with two related specification tests.Résumé : Dans cette étude, nous utilisons un estimateur semi-paramétrique VI pour décrire la forme fonctionnelle de la relation entre la dette gouvernementale relative au PIB et la croissance économique dans les pays de l'OCDE. Nous estimons cette relation dans le cadre d'un modèle de croissance pour différents sous-ensembles de pays de l'OCDE, entre 1971 et 2010. Nous trouvons, comme plusieurs études préalables, une forte hétérogénéité entre les formes fonctionnelles estimées pour les différents sous-ensembles de pays. Pour l'échantillon complet, nous trouvons une relation non linéaire et complexe, alors que pour l'ensemble de pays PIIGS (Portugal, Italie, Irlande, Grèce et Espagne), cette relation s'illustre clairement par une forme de U-inverse. De plus, nous trouvons que la forme fonctionnelle estimée du groupe PIIGS explique en grande partie les non-linéarités caractérisant la relation pour l'ensemble de l'échantillon. En effet, lorsque le groupe PIIGS est exclu de l'échantillon, nous trouvons une relation dette/PIB-croissance quasi linéaire et positive. Nous appliquons deux tests de spécification afin de confirmer la pertinence de l'estimateur semi-paramétrique VI dans ce contexte.
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Rosas, Francisco Flores. "The build-up of Mexico's external public debt, 1976-82 : context, management, and crisis." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.389828.
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Candelaria, Sedfrey Martinez. "State responsibility and international financial obligations : a case study of the International Monetary Fund stand-by arrangements with developing country members." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/28824.
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Since the international debt crisis arose in 1982, various forms of debt relief measures have been applied by international creditors to alleviate the difficulties encountered by most developing countries in meeting their financial obligations. Renegotiation of external debts within the framework of official and private creditor clubs, however, has become the widely acceptable procedure in recent years. A sine qua non to this process is the entry by a debtor state into a stand-by arrangement
with the International Monetary Fund. Compliance with the terms of the stand-by arrangement is closely linked, either in a formal or informal manner, to the enforcement of bilateral loan rescheduling agreements with creditor governments and syndicated loan agreements with private commercial banks.
The crux of IMF financing is a commitment by a debtor state to implement economic policies aimed at improving the latter1s balance of payments position. However, the impact of these economic austerity measures upon the political stability of the debtor's government and the living standards of its citizens has generated an attitude of reluctance among the leaders of several developing countries to consult the IMF in accordance with current renegotiation procedures.
In this thesis, the writer will examine the salient legal and political issues arising from the practice of international creditors in using compliance with the terms of the IMF stand-by arrangement as a parallel condition under their loan agreements with a debtor state.
Three main arguments have been considered by this writer in
shedding light upon this study.
Firstly, the assumption that compliance with the terms of the IMF stand-by arrangement constitutes an international obligation is not in accord with the law and practice of the IMF. Any inference of breach entailing state responsibility, therefore, is unwarranted on account of the characterization of the IMF stand-by arrangement as a non-binding instrument.
Secondly, a debtor state experiencing extreme economic hardship may be justified under international law to take unilateral action having the effect of deviating from the stand-by arrangement provisions. It will be argued in particular that the principle of "freedom for payments" embodied in stand-by arrangements is subject to an exception applying the rule of a state of necessity under international
law.
Finally, it will be argued that the political sustainability of economic adjustment for debtor states through the stand-by arrangements could be enhanced by incorporating human rights principles as a juridical
standard for adjustment policies formulated in consultation with the IMF.Law, Peter A. Allard School of
Graduate
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Proaño, Christian R., Christian Schoder, and Willi Semmler. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Threshold Regressions." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2014. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4085/1/wp167.pdf.
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We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study
the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm. (authors' abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Buckberg, Elaine Karen. "Developing countries in world financial markets : studies of emerging stock markets, direct investment, and debt." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/12600.
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Gao, Pei. "The impact of European debt crisis on EU's FDI in China." Thesis, University of Macau, 2018. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b3953560.
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Saleh, Abubaker Sadiq. "Debt management as an economic growth strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa : a study of selected countries." Thesis, University of Huddersfield, 2015. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/26608/.
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Government debt management, as a distinct policy, with a clear objective of managing risks and cost minimisation first started among the industrialised economies in the late 1980s. The need to improve government debt management arose with rising debt levels, caused by macro-economic imbalances especially in the mid-1970s and 1980s. In sub-Saharan Africa however, debt management as a strategy was undeveloped or lacking completely. A research in the area of debt management is significant to the economic growth and development of the sub – Saharan Africa. The significance of debt management is supported by empirical studies showing that effective public debt management could go a long way in protecting both low and middle income countries against the negative impact of the financial crisis. This research focus specifically on the choice between short and long term, domestic and external debts and how the process affects the economy as measured by per capita income and debt ratio or level of indebtedness. The work also looked at the extent of implementation of debt management among the SSAs especially as contained in the World Bank and IMF debt management performance guidelines. The research adopted the quantitative approach to answer questions raised in relation to the effect of government borrowing; the choice of debt maturity, and how sovereign debt and its management affect economic growth. It was found that debt is related negatively to economic growth; and the phenomenon of debt overhang actually exists. Debt management however was found to be relevant; where it was observed that the entire process of debt management is vital to economic growth and the development of a country. In particular, countries in sub-Saharan Africa need to put in place an effective and sound debt management strategy that would aid in promoting the needed stability, reduce risks in borrowing and guide in the prudent management of borrowed resources. The work contribute to both theoretical and empirical aspects of debt and its management.
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Hvalgren, Niclas, and Davidsson Linnea Englund. "Income Inequality and Household Debt : A panel data study of 17 OECD-countries from 1995-2015." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-341849.
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This study explores the relationship between income inequality and household indebtedness using panel data on 17 OECD-countries over the time period 1995-2015. Motivated by relative income theory of consumption and previous empirical research we anticipate a non-monotonic relationship between changes in household debt and income inequality (measured by the Gini- coefficient), as dynamics between different groups of households in the income spread is expected to vary at different levels of inequality. Carrying out the empirical analysis we find notable indications of an inverse U-shape relationship between inequality levels and household borrowing. We locate an estimated turning point at a Gini-value of 28.84, which indicates a positive marginal effect on household borrowing as inequality grows from levels below this point, turning negative as inequality increases further. This suggests that as income inequality grows from relatively low levels households increase their rate of borrowing, while at higher levels of inequality households decrease their borrowing rate in response to growing income disparities. Results hold under a random effects model and a pooled OLS model, but fail to prove significant in the stricter fixed effects model, why we cannot draw any definitive conclusions about the magnitude of the effect. Nevertheless, the findings of further complimentary estimations lend credence to our hypothesis. Benefits and limitations of our data and empirical methods are comprehensively discussed, as well as the theoretical mechanisms explaining the relationship. Indicative but in the end inconclusive results leaves ample opportunity for further investigations with more advanced empirical methods.This bachelor thesis was awarded the highest grade, VG.
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Wahlström, Jonas, and Oscar Carlsson. "The relationship between CSR and the interest bearing cost of debt : An analysis of Nordic countries." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-173061.
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Corporate social responsibility (CSR), or perhaps the lack of it, is widely debated today. Regulations and international discussions surrounding the topic is taking up a larger room in the public domain with the Paris Climate Accords being a pinnacle where a number of countries decided to agree to quite ambitious climate goals. For companies, there could be incentives to early adapt to these accords to be better suited for the future. But even during present time, it could be beneficial to as early as possible readjust into a more sustainable direction. The Nordic countries are ranked among the top in the world when it comes to sustainability. Can this however, lead to a reduction in costs for Nordic companies that invest into CSR? The purpose of this study is to examine if there is a link between socially responsible companies and the cost of interest bearing debt. This was done by conducting a number of regression models, both linear and non-linear. The data used have a time frame of 10 years and span between 2009 to 2018 with a total number of 106 firm’s and 796 firm-year observations. CSR scores were collected using Thomson Reuters and the results show that there is a statistically significant negative relationship between CSR and the cost of interest bearing debt. The effects CSR have on the cost of interest bearing debt are somewhat inconsequential and the conclusion is made that CSR can be a major determinant for interest bearing debt, but it is related to the size of the debt portfolio. Further, the results of this research could be viewed as a component in a more comprehensive model.
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Javidan, Darugar Mohammad Reza. "International Economic Dependency and Human Development in Third World Countries." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1996. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc278243/.
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This study empirically tested the two competing development theories--modernization and dependency/world-system. Theoretical and methodological approaches suggested by these two paradigms offer opposing interpretations of the incorporation of the Third World countries into the world capitalist system. Therefore, they provide conflicting and, at times, confusing guidelines on the ways available to enhance the well-being of the general populations in these countries. To shed light on the subject matter, this study uses a few specific indicators of economic growth and human development by comparing the outcomes based on the two conflicting paradigms. The comparative process allows us to confirm the one theoretical approach that best explains human conditions in Third World settings. The study focuses on specific aspects of foreign domination--foreign investment, foreign trade, foreign debt, and the resulting disarticulated national economies. The main arguement, here, conveys the idea that as far as Third World countries are tied in an inescapable and unilaterally benefitial (to the core countries of course) economic and political relations, there will be no hope for any form of sustainable economic growth. Human well-being in Third World countries might very well depend on their ability to develop self-reliant economies with the least possible ties to the world capitalist system.
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Turkistani, Abdullah Qurban. "An analysis of foreign debt by the Arab countries with special reference to Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/30138.
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In this study the demand for foreign debt was disaggregated into government demand and private sector demand. Hence, two demand models have been specified. Where, the government maximises an expected quadratic preference function, and the private sector maximises the expected returns from its financial portfolio. The two models are then empirically tested on data from the three Arab countries. Furthermore, the two models are then combined and empirically tested and compared to the disaggregated model. The general framework of this study is that the governments of the Arab countries under study pursue internal and external acceptance in an effort to remain in power, which is empirically supported here. Increasing government expenditure, which implies higher budget deficit, reflects the government's efforts to gain internal acceptance. On the other hand, opening up the domestic economy to the world indicates the government's efforts to gain international acceptance. This study concludes that the Arab countries under study have been undergoing imprudent economic policies that mainly accommodating the government's credit requirements. It has shown that the countries had accepted irresistible foreign loans contracts possibly to finance the current account deficits. Further, the IMF stabilisation program requirement to devalue the national currency, in order to increase foreign exchange inflows and hence reduce foreign debt, founds not to be working for the three Arab countries under study.
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Battikha, Anne-Marie. "Structural Adjustment and the Environment: Impacts of the World Bank and IMF Conditional Loans on Developing Countries." Virginia Tech, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/37092.
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IMF and World Bank Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) include conditional loans granted to developing countries to help them repay their debts while requiring them to undergo specific economic and political reforms. The most common SAP measures include the devaluation of currency, the reduction of public sector size and activities, the removal of subsidies, and the liberalization of trade. While the social impacts of these policies have already been acknowledged and to some degree mitigated, this paper examines their environmental impacts. The various impacts of structural adjustment on the environment are discussed in the framework of four main aspects of SAPs: export promotion, trade liberalization, the shrinking of the state, and increased poverty.
This paper argues that the macroeconomic policies promoted by structural adjustment have several direct and indirect impacts on the environment of borrowing countries. Further, without careful consideration of the environmental impacts, degradation is often the result. However, the fundamentally different perspectives and values on debt and development used by the IMF and World Bank and their critics may explain the differences in their conclusions on adjustment. As the IMF and the World Bank are currently experiencing a shift in the way they interact with borrowing countries to emphasize poverty reduction and country ownership of policies, it is possible that this will allow for more systematic and integrated approaches to addressing debt as well as long-term development. In order to minimize unintended harm to the natural resource base of these countries, economic, social and environmental issues should be addressed together.
Master of Urban and Regional Planning
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Hompashe, Dumisani MacDonald. "Is inflation targeting a viable option for a developing country?: the case of Malawi." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002676.
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The distinctive features of inflation targeting include the publishing of the formal (official) target band or point target for the rate of inflation at one or more time horizons and the explicit confirmation that low and steady inflation is the long-run objective of monetary policy. There are four main preconditions of inflation targeting: 1) an independent central bank that is free from fiscal and political pressures; 2) a central bank that has both the ability to forecast inflation and the capability to model inflation data; 3) the presence of fully deregulated prices and an economy that is affected by changes of commodity prices, as well as exchange rates; and 4) the presence of sound banking system and well developed capital markets. In most developing countries, the use of seigniorage revenues as a source of financing government debts, the lack of commitment by monetary authorities to low inflation as a primary goal, the absence of the central bank’s functional independence, and of powerful models to make domestic inflation forecasts, prevent the satisfaction of these preconditions. This dissertation investigates the extent to which Malawi meets the preconditions for inflation targeting by comparing the situation in that country to other developing countries, which have already adopted the framework. Malawi is committed to the central bank’s functional independence as well as the pursuit of prudent fiscal policy measures for the attainment of low inflation. Despite the failure to meet all the preconditions, this study recommends that Malawi should adopt an inflation targeting framework due to the strength of commitment of the monetary authorities in satisfying these preconditions.
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Hatta, Mohammad Firdaus Mohammad. "The compliancy and effectiveness of Islamic debt financing in the Malaysian economy from the perspective of ancient and contemporary literature." Thesis, University of Wales Trinity Saint David, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.683029.
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Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm. "Essays on Fiscal Policy in OECD and developing countries." Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014CLF10430/document.
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La problématique du financement du développement dans les pays en développement se trouve au coeur de cette thèse. Cette dernière s'articule autour de quatre chapitres sur les questions liées au financement du développement. Le chapitre 1 explore les effets des épisodes budgétaires dans les principaux pays donateurs principaux de l'OCDE (Organisation pour la Coopération et le Développement Economique) sur leur offre d'aide au développement aux pays en développement. On observe que les épisodes budgétaires affectent significativement l'offre d'aide, avec une différence comportementale en termes d'offre d'aide du groupe de pays de l'Union européenne versus le groupe de pays de l'OCDE n'appartenant pas à L'Union européenne. Le chapitre 2 s'intéresse aux conséquences des transferts des migrants et de l'imprévisibilité de l'aide au développement sur la probabilité de consolidation budgétaire dans les pays en développement. Les résultats montrent que les transferts des migrants affectent positivement et significativement cette probabilité alors que l'effet est statistiquement nul pour l'imprévisibilité de l'aide. Ces résultats suggèrent en l'occurrence qu'une meilleure gestion des recettes issues de ces transferts durant les périodes de boom économique pourrait aider à éviter de telles situations et offrir une marge de manoeuvre plus importante à ces gouvernements pour la mise en oeuvre de politiques contra-cycliques pendant les périodes de basse conjoncture. Le chapitre 3 analyse l'existence ou non d'effet de la vulnérabilité structurelle des pays en développement sur leur dette publique totale. Les résultats suggèrent qu'un tel effet existe : en l'occurrence, on montre l'existence d'une relation en forme de 'U' entre la vulnérabilité structurelle de ces pays et leur dette publique totale. En focalisant dans le chapitre 4 sur les pays de la zone Franc CFA, nous examinons si leur vulnérabilité structurelle conduit les gouvernements à un endettement excessif. Les résultats suggèrent que plus ces pays sont vulnérables, plus ils sont enclins à un endettement excessif et qu'au-delà d'un seuil de vulnérabilité, leur probabilité d'endettement excessif diminue. Ces résultats obtenus aussi bien pour l'ensemble des pays en développement que pour les pays de la zone Franc CFA suggère que les Institutions Internationales telles que la Banque Mondiale et le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) devront prendre en compte cette vulnérabilité dans l'évaluation des politiques de développement ainsi que leurs recommandations – en particulier sur les questions liées à l'endettement – pour ces paysThe issue of financing development in developing countries is at the heart of this thesis. The latter revolves around four chapters on financing development related matters. The chapter 1 explores how fiscal episodes in the main traditional OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) donors affect their supply of development aid towards developing countries. Evidence is shown that fiscal episodes affect significantly aid supply, with a behavioural difference between European Union and Non-European countries in terms of aid supply. The chapter 2 deals with the consequences of development aid unpredictability and migrants' remittances on fiscal consolidation in developing countries. We find evidence that while migrants' remittances exert a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of fiscal consolidation in developing countries, development aid unpredictability does not. These results particularly suggest that a better management of the revenues derived from these private transfers during their booms could help avoid such situations and allow greater room of maneuver for governments’ recipients to implement countercyclical measures during bad times. The chapter 3 investigates whether the structural vulnerability of developing countries matters for their public indebtedness and evidence is obtained that it does. More specifically, we observe the existence of U-curve relationship between this structural vulnerability and the total public debt of these countries. Focusing on the specific case of CFA Franc Zone countries in chapter 4, we examine the relationship between the structural vulnerability and the probability of entering into excessive public debt. We also obtain evidence of a nonlinear effect of the structural vulnerability indicator with respect to the probability of entering into excessive debt: a rise in the structural vulnerability of these countries increases their probability to engage into excessive debt; however this probability declines after a certain threshold of their structural vulnerability. These results (both for developing countries and particularly for CFA Franc Zone countries) suggest that international development institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) should take into account such vulnerability in their assessment of the adequate development policies and recommendations - especially those related to debt issues -, to these countries
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Imaginário, João Tiago Inverno. "The impact of governance in government debt." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16581.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraEsta dissertação estuda a relação entre os Worldwide Governance Indicators e a Dívida Pública em 164 países para o período entre 2002 e 2015. Para tal, estimaram-se os modelos de fixed effects (FE) e generalized method of moments (GMM). Os resultados sugerem que a qualidade da governance está negativamente e estatisticamente relacionada com a dívida. Para os países de rendimento per capita mais baixo, foi encontrada evidência de que um melhor ambiente de governance está associado a níveis mais baixos de dívida pública.
This dissertation examines the relationship between Worldwide Governance Indicators and Government Debt in 164 countries for the period between 2002 and 2015. For this purpose, fixed effects (FE) and generalized method of moments (GMM) models are estimated. The results suggest that governance quality is negatively and statistically related with government debt. For Low Income countries was found evidence that better governance environment is associated with lower public debt levels.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Mansour, Layal. "To what extent can the policy of hoarding international reserves in indebted and dollarized countries be efficient ?" Thesis, Lyon 2, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LYO22008.
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Le premier chapitre de cette thèse étudie l’efficience d’accumulation des RI et de la stérilisation dans les pays dollarisés et endettés, en mesurant le coefficient de stérilisation, et le coefficient de retournement. Ce chapitre explore le lien existant entre les sources des réserves et les dettes externes. En appliquant le modèle de régression 2SLS, nous identifions les variables explicatives qui nous permettent d’estimer les coefficients cités. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que malgré l’application théorique et correcte de la politique de stérilisation, les contraintes économiques contribuent à réduire l’efficience attendue des politiques monétaires. Le deuxième chapitre consiste à envisager les probabilités des pays endettés de tomber en crises financières malgré le fait qu’ils accumulent les réserves internationales agissant en tant que choc modérateur et/ou auto-assurance. Nous utilisons l’Indicateur de Stress Financier ISF, proposé par Balakrishnan et al (2009) et le FMI qui couvre les divers aspects de crises financières. Nous appliquons le modèle Markov Switching à probabilité variée. Nous obtenons comme résultat que les dettes augmentent la probabilité qu’un pays souffre d’une crise financière, par contre, les RI ne procurent pas forcément les « paix » dans l’économie, à l’exception des quelques cas. Cependant, les effets négatif des dettes emportent sur les effets positifs des RI surtout dans les pays relativement plus dollarisés. Le troisième chapitre mesure tout d’abord le degré des indices du trilemme: Stabilité du taux de change, indépendance monétaire et ouverture du compte capital, tout en tenant compte de l’accumulation des ratios RI par rapport au PIB ou Dettes Externes ou Dettes Externes (DE) à court terme. L’évolution des indices du trilemme montre que les pays qui adoptent « de facto » un taux de change flexible, profitent des avantages des RI pour adopter un régime de taux de change administré, qui consiste à atteindre simultanément les trois objectifs du trilemme sans renoncer à un d’eux. Les interprétations peuvent changer si les RI sont prises en fonctions des dettes, autrement dit, l’utilisation des RI/Dettes devrait être envisagée dans de telles études. Ensuite, nous trouvons qu’en ce qui concerne les pays qui adoptent de facto un régime de taux de change fixe, les RI (différents ratios) ne jouent aucun rôle quant à l’évolution du triangle de Mundell et n’interviennent pas dans les décisions politiques monétaires des autorités monétaires. Enfin, ce chapitre traite l’aspect normatif du trilemme, reliant les choix politiques aux résultats macroéconomiques tels que la volatilité de la croissance de production. Nous remarquons que les résultats sont différents selon les pays, et dépendent des différents ratios de mesure du RI. Nous concluons que l’impact des RI sur la volatilité de la croissance de production peut changer selon le niveau des DE et selon le régime de taux de change adoptéThe first chapter of this thesis investigates the efficiency of Hoarding IR and Sterilization in dollarized and indebted countries by measuring the sterilization coefficient, and the offset coefficient. It also focuses on exploring the link between the sources of Reserves and the external debt. We applied a 2SLS regression models and we identified explanatory variables that enabled us to estimate the aforementioned coefficients. Our results show that despite their theoretical correct practice of sterilization policy, economic constrains contribute to weaken the efficiency expected from monetary policies. The second chapter consists of estimating the probability whether an indebted country is vulnerable to crises despite its accumulation of IR -acting as a buffer stock and self-insurance. We use the Financial Stress Indicator (FSI) proposed by Balakrishnan et al (2009) and IMF which covers several aspects of financial crisis- and apply the Markov switching model with time varying, We found that debt had increased the likelihood for a country to suffer from financial crisis, however IR did not necessarily provide “Peace” in the indebted countries except of some exceptions. Thus, consistent with, Calvo (2003, 2006), who found that a country that has an excessive external debt, hoarding reserves will not be sufficient to avoid a crisis, but may be useful during the "sudden stop" crises, we conclude that the deleterious effects of ED might outweigh in most cases the beneficial effects of IR especially in more dollarized countries The third chapter measures first, the degree of trilemma indexes: exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital account openness while taking into account the increase of hording IR ratio over GDP, over External Debt and over Short Term External Debt. The evolution of the trilemma indexes shows that countries applying de facto flexible Exchange Rate Regime (ERR) take advantage of the IR and become able to adopt a managed ERR that consist of achieving the three trilemma indexes simultaneously without renouncing to anyone of them. We found that different IR ratio could have different interpretations and different directions of monetary policies, where external debt should be taken into consideration in such study while using the IR. As for the country that is applying a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, the IR (different ratio) do not play any role in changing the patter of the Mundell trilemma and do not intervene in monetary authority policies. This chapter treats as well the normative aspects of the trilemma, relating the policy choices to macroeconomic outcomes such as the volatility of output growth. We found different results from country to another, while taking different ratios of measuring IR, concluding that the impact of IR on the output volatility could change due to the level of external debt and adopted exchange rate regime
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Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor. "Fiscal policy and financing for development in developing countries." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020CLFAD007.
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Cette thèse se pose la question de savoir comment la politique budgétaire pourrait être utilisée à des fins de financement du développement. Elle identifie et explore les canaux par lesquels les pays en développement peuvent efficacement mobiliser les ressources (internes et externes) pour le financement du développement. Pour cela, nous conduisons des recherches axées sur les politiques économiques (en utilisant des outils statistiques et économétriques appropriés) et nous formulons des recommandations de politiques économiques aux pays en développement. La première partie de cette thèse s’intéresse à la question de la mobilisation des ressources externes dans les pays en développement (Chapitre 1 et Chapitre 2). Dans le Chapitre 1, nous analysons les effets des dépenses publiques sur les spreads de taux dans les pays émergents. Nous montrons que les pays en développement pourraient avoir un meilleur accès aux marchés financiers internationaux en augmentant leurs investissements publics et en réduisant leurs dépenses courantes. Plus précisément, les dépenses en capital humain (éducation et santé) et autres infrastructures publiques réduisent considérablement les spreads de taux. Ils devraient également améliorer la qualité de la gouvernance puisque les marchés financiers récompensent les pays bien gouvernés à travers de meilleures conditions d'emprunt. Nous examinons, dans le Chapitre 2, la force des règles de politiques budgétaires en termes d’amélioration de l’accès des marchés financiers internationaux par les pays en développement. Nous trouvons que l’adoption de règles budgétaires réduit les taux d’intérêts sur la détention des obligations d’Etat souverains et par conséquent améliore l’accès aux marchés financiers. Nous expliquons ce résultat par le canal de la crédibilité de la politique budgétaire : les gouvernements crédibles sont récompensés sur les marchés financiers internationaux par de faibles taux d’intérêt et des notations élevées des dettes souveraines. Nos résultats prouvent que l’adoption et la bonne mise en œuvre des règles de politiques budgétaires constitue un moyen substantiel pour les décideurs publics d’améliorer l’accès des pays en développement aux marchés financiers internationaux. La deuxième partie de cette thèse se focalise sur ce que les pays en développement pourraient faire pour améliorer la mobilisation des ressources internes (Chapitre 3 et Chapitre 4). En effet, nous explorons la relation entre l’adoption des règles budgétaires et la réduction des inégalités de revenus (Chapitre 3) et nous trouvons que l’adoption des règles budgétaires réduit les inégalités de revenus. Ces pays pourront financer leur développement de façon soutenable (à travers la réduction des inégalités) en adoptant des règles budgétaires. En outre, nous évaluons les effets de la lutte contre les flux financiers illicites sur la mobilisation de recettes fiscales (Chapitre 4). Nous révélons que les pays qui respectent les Recommandations du Groupe d’Action Financière (GAFI) en matière de lutte contre le blanchiment d’argent et le financement du terrorisme (pays coopératifs) enregistrent des montants de recettes fiscales plus élevés comparativement aux pays qui ne respectent pas ces Recommandations (pays non coopératifs). Par conséquent, les pays en développement pourront mobiliser plus de recettes fiscales en mettant en œuvre des politiques visant à empêcher les flux financiers illicites. Par ailleurs, ils doivent mettre en place de bonnes institutionsThe central question of this thesis is how fiscal policy could be used for development finance purposes. Indeed, we identify and investigate pathways through which developing states can mobilize resources to improve sustainable development. For this purpose, we conduct policy-oriented researches (using suitable statistical and econometrical tools) and provide advices for developing countries. The first part of the dissertation addresses the issue of external resources mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 1 and Chapter 2). In Chapter 1, we investigate the effects of public expenditures on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. We show that developing countries could have a better access to international financial market by supporting public investment and reducing current spending. Specifically, spending on human capital (education and health) and other public infrastructures significantly reduce bond spreads. They should also improve the quality of governance since financial markets award well-governed countries with better borrowing conditions. We examine, in Chapter 2, the strength of fiscal rules in terms of improving financial markets access for developing countries. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules reduces sovereign bond spreads and consequently improve financial market access. Indeed, this result is explained by the credibility of fiscal policy channel: more credible governments are rewarded in the international financial markets with low sovereign bond spreads and high sovereign debt ratings. Our findings confirm that the adoption and sound implementation of fiscal rules is an instrument for policy makers to improve developing countries’ financial market access. The second part of the dissertation focuses on what developing countries could do to improve internal resources mobilization (Chapter 3 and Chapter 4). As a matter of fact, we explore the relationship between fiscal rules and inequality (Chapter 3) and find that fiscal rules adoption contributes to reduce inequality in developing countries. The policy implication is that developing countries could finance their development in a sustainable way (via the reduction of inequalities) by adopting fiscal rules. Moreover, we assess the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 4). We highlight that countries which cooperate with international standards for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) are more able to mobilize tax revenue than countries which do not cooperate. Consequently, developing countries could mobilize more domestic tax revenue by implementing policies to curtail illicit financial flows. They should establish sound institutions
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Balima, Weneyam Hippolyte. "Essays on economic policies and economy of financial markets in developing and emerging countries." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017CLFAD024/document.
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Cette thèse s'intéresse aux questions d'accès aux marchés financiers dans les économies émergentes et en développement. La première partie donne un aperçu général des conséquences macroéconomiques de l'un des régimes de politique monétaire le plus favorable au marché - le ciblage d'inflation - en utilisant le cadre d'analyse de la méta-analyse. La deuxième partie analyse le risque et la stabilité des marchés obligataires des États. La troisième et dernière partie examine les effets disciplinaires résultant de la participation aux marchés obligataires souverains. Plusieurs résultats émergent. Au chapitre 1, les résultats indiquent que la littérature sur les effets macroéconomiques du ciblage d'inflation est sujette à des biais de publication. Après avoir purgé ces biais, le véritable effet du ciblage d'inflation reste statistiquement et économiquement significatif à la fois sur le niveau de l'inflation et la volatilité de la croissance économique, mais ne l’est pas sur la volatilité de l'inflation ou le taux de croissance économique réel. Aussi, les caractéristiques des études déterminent l’hétérogénéité des résultats de l'impact du ciblage d’inflation dans les études primaires. Le chapitre 2 montre que l'adoption d'un régime de ciblage d'inflation réduit le risque souverain dans les pays émergents. Cependant, cet effet varie systématiquement en fonction du cycle économique, de la politique budgétaire suivie, du niveau de développement et de la durée dans le ciblage. Le chapitre 3 montre que les envois de fonds des migrants, contrairement aux flux d'aide au développement, permettent de réduire le risque souverain. Cette réduction est plus marquée dans un pays avec un système financier moins développé, un degré d'ouverture commerciale élevé, un espace budgétaire faible et sans effet dans les pays dépendants des envois de fonds. Le chapitre 4 montre que les pays ayant des contrats d’échange sur risque de crédit sur leurs dettes sont plus sujets à des crises de dette. Il constate également que cet effet reste sensible aux caractéristiques structurelles des pays. Le chapitre 5 montre que la participation aux marchés obligataires de long terme (domestiques et internationaux) encourage les gouvernements des pays en développement à accroître leurs recettes fiscales intérieures. Il révèle également que l'effet favorable dépend du niveau des recettes de seigneuriage, d’endettement, du régime de change, du niveau de développement économique, du degré d’ouverture financière, et du développement financier. Le chapitre 6 montre que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques, de long terme et liquides réduit considérablement le degré de dollarisation financière dans les pays en développement. Cet effet est plus important dans les pays avec un régime monétaire de ciblage d’inflation ou de change flottant, et à règles budgétaires. Enfin, il constate que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques réduit la dollarisation financière à travers la baisse du niveau et de la variabilité de l'inflation, de la variabilité du taux de change nominal, et des revenus de seigneuriageThis thesis focuses on some critical issues of the access to international financial markets in developing and emerging market economies. The first part provides a general overview of the macroeconomic consequences of one of the most market-friendly monetary policy regime—inflation targeting—using a meta-regression analysis framework. The second part analyses government bond market risk and stability. The last part investigates the disciplining effects of government bond market participation—bond vigilantes. In Chapter 1, the results indicate that the literature of the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting adoption is subject to publication bias. After purging the publication bias, the true effect of inflation targeting appears to be statistically and economically meaningful both on the level of inflation and the volatility of economic growth, but not statistically significant on inflation volatility or real GDP growth. Third, differences in the impact of inflation targeting found in primary studies can be explained by differences in studies characteristics including the sample characteristics, the empirical identification strategies, the choice of the control variables, inflation targeting implementation parameters, as well as the study period and some parameters related to the publication process. Chapter 2 shows that the adoption of inflation targeting regime reduces sovereign debt risk in emerging countries. However, this relative advantage of inflation targeting—compared to money or exchange rate targeting—varies systematically depending on the business cycle, the fiscal policy stance, the level of development, and the duration of countries’ experience with inflation targeting. Chapter 3 shows that remittances inflows significantly reduce bond spreads, whereas development aid does not. It also highlights that the effect of remittances on spreads arises in a regimes of lower developed financial system, higher degree of trade openness, lower fiscal space, and exclusively in non-remittances dependent regimes. Chapter 4 indicates that countries with credit default swaps contracts on their debts have a higher probability of experiencing a debt crisis, compared to countries without credit default swaps contracts. It also finds that the impact of credit default swaps initiation is sensitive to several structural characteristics including the level of economic development, the country creditworthiness at the timing of credit default swaps introduction, the public sector transparency, the central bank independence; and to the duration of countries’ experiences with credit default swaps transactions. Chapter 5 shows that bond markets participation encourages government in developing countries to increase their domestic tax revenue mobilization. Finally, it finds that bond markets participation improves the mobilization of internal taxes, compared to tax on international trade, and reduces their instability. Chapter 6 shows that the presence of domestic bond markets significantly reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries. This effect is larger for inflation targeting countries compared to non-inflation targeting countries, is apparent exclusively in a non-pegged exchange rate regime, and is larger when there is a fiscal rule that constrains the conduct of fiscal policy. Finally, it finds that the induced drop in inflation rate and its variability, nominal exchange rate variability, and seigniorage revenue are potential transmission mechanisms through which the presence of domestic bond markets reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries
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Kere, Axelle. "Essays on fiscal policy and domestic resource mobilization in resource-rich developing countries." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2021-...), 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022UCFAD002.
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Cette thèse examine l'effet des ressources naturelles extractives sur l'environnement macroéconomique des pays en développement et aborde la question de la mobilisation des ressources domestiques dans ces pays. Après avoir passé en revue la littérature théorique et empirique existante sur la malédiction des ressources naturelles, elle explore empiriquement l'impact des grandes découvertes de pétrole et de gaz sur la politique budgétaire des pays en développement et teste l'effet d'une solution proposée par les institutions multilatérales et les gouvernements pour atténuer les défis de la gestion de ces ressources.Le premier chapitre met en évidence l'impact négatif des découvertes de pétrole et de gaz sur la probabilité d'occurrence d’une crise de la dette souveraine dans les pays subsahariens. Cet effet se produit principalement dans les pays dont les exportations sont fortement concentrées; à l'inverse, il disparaît pour les pays qui sont diversifiés. Ce résultat est important car les pays de notre étude ont déjà bénéficié d'un allègement de leur dette par le biais de l'initiative en faveur des Pays Pauvres Très Endettés (PPTE) et de l'Initiative d'Allègement de la Dette Multilatérale (IADM).Le deuxième chapitre montre l'impact des découvertes de pétrole et de gaz sur la composition des dépenses publiques dans les pays en développement. Il met en évidence les effets néfastes de ces découvertes sur les dépenses de santé et d'éducation. En outre, les résultats montrent que les gouvernements privilégient des catégories de dépenses moins productives et plus discrétionnaires, comme les dépenses militaires et de protection sociale. Les résultats de ce chapitre participent à la discussion quant à la réalisation de l’Objectif de développement durable (ODD) sur la croissance économique.Le troisième chapitre analyse l'impact des fonds souverains comme solution à la malédiction des ressources naturelles. Cet article montre que les fonds souverains, en particulier les fonds de stabilisation, ont un impact significatif et positif sur la mobilisation des impôts dans les secteurs hors ressources. En effet, le fait d'imposer une contrainte budgétaire supplémentaire aux pays riches en ressources naturelles encourage une meilleure mobilisation des recettes. Ce dernier résultat participe à l’identification des propositions permettant d'atteindre les objectifs du Consensus de Marrakech, qui a souligné l'importance d'une meilleure mobilisation des recettes intérieures.Enfin, nous concluons en formulant des recommandations de politiques économiques pratiques pour résoudre le problème de la malédiction des ressources naturellesThis thesis examines the effect of extractive natural resources on the macroeconomic environment of developing countries and addresses the issue of domestic resource mobilization in these countries. After reviewing the existing theoretical and empirical literature on the natural resource curse, it explores empirically the impact of giant oil and gas discoveries on the fiscal policy of developing countries and tests the effect of a solution promoted by multilateral institutions and governments to alleviate the challenges of the management of such resources. The first chapter highlights the negative impact of oil and gas discoveries on the likelihood of sovereign debt crises in sub-Saharan countries. This effect occurs mainly in countries with a high concentration of exports; conversely, it disappears for so-called diversified countries. This result is noteworthy because the countries in our study have already received debt relief through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). The second chapter shows the impact of oil and gas discoveries on the composition of public expenditures in developing countries. It emphasizes the harmful effects of these discoveries on health and education spending. In addition, governments privilege less productive and more discretionary categories of spending, like military and social protection spending. The results of this chapter raise concerns about whether the first of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) about economic growth will be achieved.The third chapter analyzes the impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) as a solution promoted by several governments. This article shows that SWFs, particularly stabilization funds, have a significant impact on addressing the deterrent effect of non-resource tax mobilization. Furthermore, imposing an additional fiscal constraint on resource-rich states encourages better revenue mobilization across non-resource sectors. This last result contributes to the discussion of options for achieving the objectives of the Marrakech Consensus, which emphasized the importance of better domestic revenue mobilization.Finally, we conclude by providing practical economic policy recommendations to address the multidisciplinary problem of natural resource curse
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Lindner, Thomas, Jakob Müllner, and Jonas Puck. "Cost of capital in an international context: Institutional distance, quality, and dynamics." Elsevier, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intman.2016.01.001.
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Cost of debt is a key cognitive anchor for managerial decisions and an important determinant of firm profitability. We extend international management research by analyzing the effects of institutional distance, institutional quality, and their dynamics on the cost of debt in the context of foreign direct investments (FDI). We test our conceptual model on a sample of companies making 3,764 greenfield foreign direct investments from developed into less developed markets. Using hierarchical linear modelling, we show that the financial consequences of internationalizing into countries with weak institutions depend on both the institutional distance between countries, as well as their institutional quality. Furthermore, we find that recent changes in institutional quality form expectations about future development and ultimately influence post investment financing costs.
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Říman, Václav. "Vliv eura na vývoj hospodářství a zadlužení v jižních státech eurozóny." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-116337.
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This diploma thesis discuss the influence of the euro currency on economical situation and its development in Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain. It is also concerned with the debt crisis which these countries are passing through. First, I analyze development of these countries in the last 20 years prior to entering the eurozone. After that, I focus on the fulfiling of Maastricht criterias and Optimal currency area theory, mainly the convergence of business cycles. Next chapter puts in place the questions of positive expectations, which should have be brought be the euro. In the fourth chapter the work shifts in time to the period after adopting the euro and it analyses the development of several macroeconomic values in the years 2001 - 2010 in southern countries. The results of these research are explained with focus on the influence of the euro. Last chapter concerns about the path of Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain to the debt crisis, which peaked by the incapability of further finacing some of these countries. It research the possible effects of euro as well.
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Nilsson, Alexander. "Crowding out or crowding in? : A study on the effects of the public debt ratio on private investments of countries in the euro area." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-173254.
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The evolution of public debt in the euro area into unsustainable levels is discussed now more than ever after the recent financial crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis that followed. With countries like Greece and Italy hovering around the level of 181.2- and 134.8 percent of GDP in public debt in 2018 (AMECO database), it is hard not to be worried about the future. Macroeconomic theory predicts that increased bond-financed government expenditure will crowd out private investment. This paper tests the credibility of this theory by empirically examining the effect of public debt ratios on private investment in 26 countries in the euro area from 1999 to 2018. By using panel data regression, accounting for fixed effects, it emerged that public debt ratios are negatively correlated with private investment as is predicted by the crowding out theory. However, no statistically significant negative correlation was found when introducing an instrumental variable, military expenditure.
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Gabriani, Carlos Roberto. "O financiamento da inovação tecnológica em países em desenvolvimento : uma abordagem teórica com aplicação para a economia brasileira." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/150544.
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No presente trabalho faz-se uma análise teórica sobre o financiamento da inovação tecnológica com ênfase para os países em desenvolvimento, ou em processo de catching up, com aplicação para a economia brasileira. Sua importância resulta da necessidade de se entender o papel que as inovações passaram a ter enquanto fator capaz de estreitar as diferenças existentes entre os países avançados e em desenvolvimento. Objetiva-se demonstrar que nesses países a dinâmica e o processo inovativo caracterizam-se por estruturar-se predominantemente sobre a difusão, absorção e uso de tecnologias, com implicações diferenciadas sobre o seu financiamento, e que, nesse contexto, o sistema financeiro e os mercados de capitais ganham destaques enquanto instituições integrantes do sistema nacional de inovação capazes de afetar as condições de exequibilidade do financiamento (finance) e de consolidação financeira das dívidas (funding) das empresas inversoras e/ou inovadoras. Para alcançar esses objetivos realiza-se uma incursão sobre as contribuições teóricas das abordagens pós-keynesianas e neoschumpeterianas com vistas a ressaltar os elementos que possibilitam entender a dinâmica inovativa e o papel do sistema financeiro em financiar as atividades inovativas das empresas desses países. O comportamento da firma bancária é analisado destacando suas implicações sobre o financiamento da inovação Faz-se ainda uma análise sobre as conexões entre crédito, ciclo econômico e financiamento e busca-se estabelecer as relações entre financiamento e processo de consolidação financeira das dívidas das empresas alavancadas. Analisa-se também o financiamento da inovação tendo em vistas as idiossincrasias em termos da dinâmica e do processo inovativo nos países em desenvolvimento ou em processo de catching up. Finalmente, a partir dos dados da PINTEC/IBGE, faz-se uma investigação sobre as relações entre a dinâmica e o processo inovativo das empresas brasileiras e o papel do sistema financeiro e dos mercados de capitais nacionais no seu financiamento. Conclui-se que nos país em desenvolvimento o sistema financeiro e os mercados de capitais desempenham papel diferenciado no financiamento da inovação tecnológica, dadas as especificidades concernentes ao risco e à incerteza que caracterizam seu processo inovativo, e que no caso brasileiro o Estado ocupa um espaço no financiamento das atividades inovativas das empresas brasileiras que poderia ser razoavelmente desempenhado pelo sistema financeiro nacional.This work presents a theoretical analysis on the financing of technological innovation with emphasis on developing countries, or in the process of catching up, with application to the Brazilian economy. Its importance stems from the need to understand the role that innovations have been given as a factor able to narrow the differences between the advanced and developing countries. The goal is to show that in these countries the dynamics and the innovation process is characterized by structuring predominantly on the diffusion, absorption and use of technologies, with different implications for their financing, and in that context, the financial system and capital markets are highlighted as institutions of the national innovation system that may affect the funding feasibility conditions (finance) and financial consolidation of debt (funding) of inverting companies and / or innovative companies. To achieve these objectives a raid on the theoretical contributions of post-Keynesian and neo-Schumpeterian approaches was carried out in order to highlight the elements that make it possible to understand the innovative dynamics and the role of the financial system to finance the innovative activities of companies in these countries. The banking firm's behavior is analyzed contrasting its implications on the financing of innovation. It is further an analysis of the connections between credit and economic cycle and funding and seeks to establish the relationship between financing and financial consolidation of the debts of leveraged companies. It also looks up the financing of innovation with a view of idiosyncrasies in terms of dynamic and innovative process in developing countries, or catching up process Finally, from the PINTEC / IBGE data, an investigation is made on the relationship between the dynamics and the innovation process of Brazilian companies and the role of the financial system and of national capital markets in its funding. It is concluded that in developing countries the financial system and capital markets play different role in the financing of technological innovation, given the specificities pertaining to risk and uncertainty that characterize its innovative process, and that in the Brazilian case the State occupies a space the financing of innovative activities of Brazilian companies that could reasonably be played by the national financial system.
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Sturk, Madeleine, and Evertsson Marina Valkonen. "Reclassifications of financial intstruments in the Nordic countries : The effects of the reclassification amendments on Nordic banks financial statements of 2008 and 2009." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Accounting and Finance, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12995.
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Due to the apparent global economic conditions, at the end of 2008, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) issued amendments to IAS 39 Financial instruments: recognition and measurement and IFRS 7 Financial instruments: disclosures in October and November, 2008. The amendments allow banks to reclassify their non-derivative financial instruments in rare circumstances. This thesis investigates whether banks in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) reclassify financial instruments, in their financial statements of 2008 and 2009.
The result of the study shows that 47% of the sample Nordic banks reclassified financial instruments in 2008 and 12% in 2009. All banks increased their net profit as a result of reclassifying financial instruments in 2008. The return on equity (ROE) increased significantly compared to whether the banks would not had reclassified their financial instruments. Tendencies found among the sample Nordic banks are that larger and less profitable banks used the possibility to reclassify financial instruments to a greater extent. Because none of the banks made losses on their choice to reclassify in 2008, the conclusion is that the opportunity given due to the amendments are mostly used by the banks to enhance the net income and the key ratio ROE. This shows that management decisions are short-term. This also indicates that the amendments may be misused by management to enhance current profit for their own benefit. The thesis also concludes that the departure from fair-value as the valuation method for financial instruments, due to recent massive critic, is unlikely.
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Bokrová, Lenka. "Vývoj zahraničního zadlužení zemí východního rozšíření EU (90. léta až současnost)." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2007. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-3883.
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The external debt is no doubt "a front burner" nowadays, not only in the group of well informed economists or politicians. And although it is regarded as a problem ascribed to the third world countries only, any national economy can bear it. Anyway, neither developed countries are exceptions, despite distinctly small attention which is given to them from the external indebtedness point of view. In my thesis, I decided to link the foreign debt problem with another frequent topic of any discussions: with the really prudent process of the European Union expansion to the East. Primarily, I will try to confute many skewed information about both of them. Or - is the foreign debt really such an uncompromising indicator of the external instability hindering any economic progress? Must thus the relatively successful transformation of the transitive economies pass off with the zero foreign indebtedness entirely?
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Thornley, Marc. "How New Zealand's non-mortgage, individual and household debt has grown since the 1990's looking at the demographic factors behind the debt and how it compares to other OECD countries : a dissertation project submitted to AUT University in partial fulfilment of the degree of Master of Social Policy , 2008 /." Click here to access this resource online, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10292/670.
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