Journal articles on the topic 'Cyclones Vietnam'

Rice is an important human crop and rice cultivation is threatened due to natural disasters, leading to negative effects on national and global food security. Natural disasters, such as tropical cyclones and saline intrusion, have dramatic influences in coastal regions. To investigate possible impacts of these disasters on rice cultivation, it needs an efficient tool to assess potential disaster impacts and a risk index is highly applicable. Therefore, this study aims at establishing a risk assessment of rice production in coastal areas under the effects of tropical cyclones and saline intrusion. We adopted the risk definition introduced by [1] in which risk is a function of hazard, exposure and, vulnerability. Multiple hazards of tropical cyclones and saline intrusion were indicated by their frequency and severity at some critical levels of 25%, 50% and, >50% rice yield reduction. Each hazard was weighted by its damage to rice yield. The exposure and vulnerability of rice crops are evaluated at different growing phases. The tropical cyclone hazard index was ranked high and very high in the wet season while the salinity hazard index was ranked very high in the dry season. Due to the combined effects of tropical cyclones and salinity, rice crop is highly susceptible during the reproduction phase and at the panicle initiation stage particularly. Based on the cropping calendar of My Xuyen, the period of October-November was the very high vulnerability period since it had the largest rice cultivable area and rice crops were at the reproduction phase. This result shows that rice crops are at high risk in October and November. Noticeably, saline intrusion reaches the highest level in April and May, but no risk is at this period because of no rice crop cultivated. This can reflect a measure to reduce risk by adjusting the cropping calendar.

Abstract Stretched from Indochina, across the South China Sea, to the Philippine Sea, a monsoon cyclonic shear flow was formed by easterlies of the cold surge-like flow in the north and monsoon westerlies in the south before the onset of the tropical Southeast Asian monsoon on 12 May 2008. On this date, two named tropical cyclones (Halong and Matmo) evolved with a 12-h lag from a closed vortex adjacent to the coast of central Vietnam and another closed vortex near Palawan Island (Philippines) within this shear flow. These two cyclones, named the twin Philippine tropical cyclones, moved almost on the same track, along the anomalous shear line (departure from the climatological one) across the Philippines, and turned northeastward to the ocean south of Japan. It was revealed from synoptic analysis that the cold surge-like flow was coupled with the midlatitude eastward-propagating short wave in northeast Asia, and part of the monsoon westerlies were fed by the cross-equatorial flow, the downstream flow of easterlies around the northern rim of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical high. The environment favorable for the formation of the twin cyclones was developed from the tropics–midlatitude interaction between synoptic systems in these two latitudinal zones. Formations of these cyclones were a result of drastic spinups of the two closed vortices (within the monsoon shear flow) following the surge of monsoon westerlies, which coincided with those of easterlies of the cold surge-like flow, and the cross-equatorial flow originating from easterlies between the Southern Hemisphere subtropical high and the Southern Hemisphere shear flow.

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity observations considerably improve forecast models. They are particularly used to continuously measure TC intensity for landfalling cyclones to improve their forecast. For example, TC Irving, which operated in the Gulf of Tonkin, South China Sea, on 23–24 July 1989, was observed by a conventional weather radar installed at the Phu Lien Observatory in North Vietnam. The maximum wind speed was calculated by the hyperbolic-logarithmic approximation (HLS-approximation) of spiral cloud-rain bands (SCRBs) of recorded TC radar images. The data spanned about 15 h. Ground-based estimates of the cyclone intensity were obtained from pressure measurements at two coastal weather stations. A comparison of these estimates with the HLS wind resulting from the HLS approximation of SCRBs showed satisfactory synchronization. In particular, radar and meteorological data indicated cyclone intensification near landfall and rapid cyclone intensification after landfall. Both intensifications were accompanied by polygonal eye shapes. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using the HLS-approximation technique for retrieving TC intensity variation from conventional weather radar data.

The traditional view holds that a weakened upwelling has often been observed off the coast of southeast Vietnam during the post-El Niño summer. This study investigated a strong upwelling and concurrent phytoplankton bloom off the coast of southeast Vietnam in August 2016 by comparing it with another case in 1998. Analyses of the upwelling structure and formation mechanisms indicated that the abnormal strong upwelling in August 2016 was attributable to strong wind-driven offshore Ekman transport and Ekman pumping, which were caused by the accompanying southwesterly anomalies south of the anomalous cyclone (AC) over the western North Pacific (WNP), and vice versa in August 1998. This anomalous southwesterly wind associated with the AC over the WNP could not be explained by La Niña, the negative Indian ocean dipole, or the positive Pacific meridional mode events. Further analyses showed that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-induced westerly winds could have contributed more than 75% of the original zonal winds. Nine tropical cyclones generated over the WNP were favorable for excessive precipitation. The opposite configurations of precipitation patterns over the WNP and the Maritime Continent could have further strengthened the AC via a Gill response.

Abstract The formations of heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events in Vietnam are studied from diagnostic analyses of 31 events during the period 1979–2009. HRF events develop from the cold surge vortices formed around the Philippines. These vortices’ speed, size, and rainfall, which evolve into HRF events, are enhanced distinguishably from non-HRF vortices, as they reach Vietnam. The HRF cyclone, the North Pacific anticyclone, and the northwestern Pacific explosive cyclone simultaneously reach their maximum intensities when the HRF event occurs. An HRF cyclone attains its maximum intensity by the in-phase constructive interference of three monsoon (30–60, 12–24, and 5 days) modes identified by the spectral analysis of zonal winds. The rainfall center of an HRF event is formed and maintained by the in-phase constructive interference of rainfall and convergence of water vapor flux anomalies, respectively, from three monsoon modes. Forecast times of regional models are dependent and constrained on the scale of the limited domain. For 5-day forecasts, a global or at least a hemispheric model is necessary. Using the salient features described above, a 5-day forecast advisory is introduced to supplement forecasts of HRF events made by the global model. Non-HRF vortices are filtered by threshold values for the deepening rate of explosive cyclones and basic characteristics of the HRF events predicted by the global model. A necessary condition for an HRF event is the in-phase superposition of the three monsoon modes. One-week forecasts for 12 HRF events issued by the NCEP Global Forecast System are tested. Results demonstrate the feasibility of the forecast advisory to predict the occurrence dates of HRF events.

In this study, the WRF model is used to investigate the role of Central Vietnam terrain on occurrence of the heavy rainfall event in November 1999 over Central Vietnam. Two model experiments with and without terrain were performed to examine the orographic blocking effects during the event. In the terrain experiment, the results from a three-day simulation show that the model reasonably well captures northeast monsoon circulation, tropical cyclones and the occurrence of heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam. The topography causes a high pressure anomaly intensifying northeast monsoon. When the terrain is removed, the three-day accumulated rainfall decreases approximately 75% in comparison with that in the terrain experiment. The terrain blocking and lifting effects in strong wind and moisture laden conditions combined with convergence circulation over open ocean are the main factors for occurrence of the heavy rainfall event.

This study examines the impacts of tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on western North Pacific (WNP) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). The authors find that TNA SSTA has significant negative correlations with the frequency of TCs making landfall in China, Vietnam, the Korean Peninsula and Japan, and the entirety of East Asia. TNA SSTA influences the frequency of TC landfalls in these regions by regulating TC genesis location and frequency associated with modulated environmental conditions. During cold TNA SST years, larger low-level relative vorticity and weaker vertical wind shear lead to more TC formations over the South China Sea (SCS) and western Philippine Sea (WPS), and larger low-level relative vorticity, higher midlevel relative humidity, and weaker vertical wind shear result in more TC formations over the eastern part of WNP (EWNP). More TCs forming over different regions are important for more TC landfalls in Vietnam (mainly forming over the SCS and WPS), south China (predominantly forming over the SCS), Taiwan (mostly forming over the WPS), and the Korean Peninsula and Japan (forming over the WPS and EWNP). Tracks of these landfalling TCs basically follow the mean steering flow in spite of different directions of steering flow anomalies in the vicinity. The modulation of large-scale environments by TNA SSTA may be through two possible pathways proposed in previous studies: the Indian Ocean relaying effect and the subtropical eastern Pacific relaying effect. The results of this study suggest that TNA SSTA is a potential predictor for the frequency of TCs making landfall in China, Vietnam, the Korean Peninsula and Japan, and the entirety of East Asia.

Abstract Reanalysis and observation data from 1979 to 2010 are used to study the climatological behavior of regional vortices over the Southeast Asian sea–Maritime Continent region (SEAMC). After eliminating tropical cyclones from the International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), significant numbers of vortices remained over the region. The results also show that the vortices, rather than being relatively stationary near the Borneo coast in the winter, were consistently present over the SEAMC throughout the year, migrating from the area of the coast of Vietnam, the Philippines, and the Southeast Asian sea in summer to the island of Borneo region in winter. These vortices can produce significant amounts of rainfall in Vietnam, especially in central coastal regions during the postsummer monsoon (autumn) period.

AbstractThis study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying (RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index (PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern (the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts (Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.

This study investigates the impacts of different physical parameterization schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the ARW dynamical core (WRF-ARW model) on the forecasts of heavy rainfall over the northern part of Vietnam (Bac Bo area). Various physical model configurations generated from different typical cumulus, shortwave radiation, and boundary layer and from simple to complex cloud microphysics schemes are examined and verified for the cases of extreme heavy rainfall during 2012–2016. It is found that the most skilled forecasts come from the Kain–Fritsch (KF) scheme. However, relating to the different causes of the heavy rainfall events, the forecast cycles using the Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) scheme show better skills for tropical cyclones or slowly moving surface low-pressure system situations compared to KF scheme experiments. Most of the sensitivities to KF scheme experiments are related to boundary layer schemes. Both configurations using KF or BMJ schemes show that more complex cloud microphysics schemes can also improve the heavy rain forecast with the WRF-ARW model for the Bac Bo area of Vietnam.

Abstract The heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) event in central Vietnam usually occurs in October–November, the maximum rainfall season. This rainfall maximum undergoes a distinct interannual variation, opposite the interannual variation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies averaged over the NOAA Niño-3.4 area—ΔSST(Niño-3.4)—but coincident with the intensification (weakening) of the low-level easterlies at 15°N and westerlies at 5°N. The changes of low-level zonal winds reflect the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical cyclonic shear flow in tropical South/Southeast Asia in response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Because the rainfall maximum in central Vietnam is primarily produced by the HRF cyclone, the interannual rainfall variation in this region should be attributed to the HRF cyclone activity—a new perspective of the climate change in precipitation. On average, one HRF cyclone occurs in each cold late fall. The population of the HRF cyclone may not be an important factor causing the interannual rainfall variation in central Vietnam. During the cold late fall, the rain-producing efficiency of the individual HRF cyclone is statistically almost twice those during warm and normal late falls and the most crucial factor leading to the interannual rainfall variation in central Vietnam. It is shown by further hydrological analysis that the increase (decrease) of the HRF cyclone’s rain-producing efficiency is determined by the large-scale environmental flow through the enhancement (weakening) of the regional convergence of water vapor flux.

Abstract The present study explores the characteristics of the 20–60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the 29-yr observed rainfall in north Vietnam (NVN), central Vietnam (CVN), and south Vietnam (SVN) in rainy seasons. Composite analyses reveal that the 20–60-day ISO in NVN accompanies dual vortices straddling Taiwan, which alternately favor and suppress convection extending from the northern Philippines to NVN. The wet phase in CVN coincides with convergence of northerly and easterly winds over the region. The large-scale pattern governing the 20–60-day ISO in SVN resembles the characteristics of the boreal summer ISO (BSISO). Conditionally unstable anomalies are observed within anomalous anticyclones where the moisture flux diverges out during the dry phase in NVN and SVN, and vice versa. Such anomalies prevent the existence of the anticyclones and finally replace them with anomalous cyclones to start the wet phase. The unstable anomalies could result from descending motion that increases the boundary layer temperature due to adiabatic compression of air. Conversely, boundary layer cooling due to evaporation of rain and interception of solar radiation by clouds produces stable anomalies. The unstable anomalies, moisture flux convergence, and vertical motions shift northward from the convection maximum, leading to the northward propagation of the BSISO convection. The 20–60-day ISO in CVN is not governed by local instability. Vertical cross sections indicate that the ISO in SVN possesses a westward-tilting structure, which is not observed in the NVN and CVN case.

The reproduction of meteorological tsunamis utilizing physically based hydrodynamic models is complicated in light of the fact that it requires large amounts of information, for example, for modelling the limits of hydrological and water driven time arrangement, stream geometry, and balanced coefficients. Accordingly, an artificial neural network (ANN) strategy utilizing a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is perceived as a viable option for modelling and forecasting the maximum peak and variation with time of meteorological tsunamis in the Mekong estuary in Vietnam. The parameters, including both the nearby climatic weights and the wind field factors, for finding the most extreme meteorological waves, are first examined, through the preparation of evolved neural systems. The time series of meteorological tsunamis were used for training and testing the models, and data for three cyclones were used for model prediction. Given the 22 selected meteorological tidal waves, the exact constants for the Mekong estuary, acquired through relapse investigation, are A = 9.5 × 10−3 and B = 31 × 10−3. Results showed that both the Multilayer Perceptron Network (MLP) and evolved radial basis function (ERBF) methods are capable of predicting the time variation of meteorological tsunamis, and the best topologies of the MLP and ERBF are I3H8O1 and I3H10O1, respectively. The proposed advanced ANN time series model is anything but difficult to use, utilizing display and prediction tools for simulating the time variation of meteorological tsunamis.

AbstractThe reproduction of meteorological waves utilizing physically based hydrodynamic models is very difficult in light of the fact that it requires enormous amounts of information, for example, hydrological and water-driven time arrangement limits, stream geometry, and balance coefficients. Accordingly, an artificial neural network (ANN) strategy utilizing a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is perceived as a viable option for modeling and forecasting the maximum and time variation of meteorological tsunamis in the Mekong Estuary in Vietnam. The parameters, including both the nearby climatic and breeze field factors, for finding the most extreme meteorological waves are first examined, depending on the preparation of the evolved neural systems. The time series for meteorological tsunamis are used for training and testing the models, and data for three cyclones are used for model prediction. This study finds that the proposed advanced ANN time series model is easy to utilize with display and prediction tools for simulating the time variation of meteorological tsunamis.

This study statistically investigates the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific in the 37 years from 1979 to 2015 and the relevant atmospheric and oceanic environments. Among 900 TCs, 201 TCs undergoing RI (RI-TCs) are detected by our definition as a wind speed increase of 30 kt (15.4 m s−1) or more in a 24-h period. RI-TCs potentially occur throughout the year, with low variation in RI-TC occurrence rate among the seasons. Conversely, the annual occurrence of RI-TC varies widely. In El Niño years, TCs tend to undergo RI mainly as a result of average locations at the time of tropical storm formation (TSF) being farther east and south, whereas TCs experience RI less frequently in La Niña years. The occurrence rates of RI-TC increased from the 1990s to the late 2000s. The RI onset time is typically 0–66 h after the TSF and the duration that satisfies the criteria of RI is 1–2 days. RI frequently occurs over the zonally elongated area around the eastern Philippine Sea. The development stage and life-span are longer in RI-TCs than in TCs that do not undergo RI. RI-TCs are small at the time of TSF and tend to develop as intense TCs as a result of environmental conditions favorable for TC development, weak vertical wind shear, high convective available potential energy, and tropical cyclone heat potential. The occurrence rates of RI-TCs that make landfall in Japan and the Philippines are higher than in China and Vietnam.

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation close to the coastline of the Asian continent presents a significant threat to heavily populated coastal countries. A case study of Tropical Storm Mekkhala (2008) that developed off the coast of Vietnam is presented using the high-resolution analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts/Year of Tropical Convection and multiple satellite observations. The authors have analyzed contributions to the formation from large-scale intraseasonal variability, synoptic perturbations, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Within a large-scale westerly wind burst (WWB) associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), synoptic perturbations generated by two preceding tropical cyclones initiated the pre-Mekkhala low-level vortex over the Philippine Sea. Typhoon Hagupit produced a synoptic-scale wave train that contributed to the development of Jangmi, but likely suppressed the Mekkhala formation. The low-level vortex of the pre-Mekkhala disturbance was then initiated in a confluent zone between northeasterlies in advance of Typhoon Jangmi and the WWB. A key contribution to the development of Mekkhala was from diurnally varying MCSs that were invigorated in the WWB. The oceanic MCSs, which typically develop off the west coast of the Philippines in the morning and dissipate in the afternoon, were prolonged beyond the regular diurnal cycle. A combination with the MCSs developing downstream of the Philippines led to the critical structure change of the oceanic convective cluster, which implies the critical role of mesoscale processes. Therefore, the diurnally varying mesoscale convective processes over both the ocean and land are shown to have an essential role in the formation of Mekkhala in conjunction with large-scale MJO and the synoptic-scale TC influences.

The coral reef ecosystem in Cu Lao Cham, Vietnam is part of the central zone of the Cu Lao Cham -Hoi An, a biosphere reserve and it is strictly protected. However, the impacts of natural disasters - tropical cyclones (TCs) go beyond human protection. The characteristic feature of TCs is strong winds and the consequences of strong winds are high waves. High waves caused by strong TCs (i.e. level 13 or more) cause decline in coral cover in the seas around Cu Lao Cham. Based on the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of TCs, this research determines the number of strong TCs in Cu Lao Cham in the future. Using results from a regional climate change model, the risk is that the number of strong TCs in the period 2021-2060 under the RCP4.5 scenario, will be 3.7 times greater than in the period 1980-2019 and under the RCP 8.5 scenario it will be 5.2 times greater than in the period 1980-2019. We conclude that increases in SST in the context of climate change risks will increase the number and intensity of TCs and so the risk of their mechanical impact on coral reefs will be higher leading to degradation of this internationally important site.

Abstract The average latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their peak intensity has been observed to be shifting poleward in some regions over the past 30 years, apparently in concert with the independently observed expansion of the tropical belt. This poleward migration is particularly well observed and robust in the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). Such a migration is expected to cause systematic changes, both increases and decreases, in regional hazard exposure and risk, particularly if it persists through the present century. Here, it is shown that the past poleward migration in the WNP has coincided with decreased TC exposure in the region of the Philippine and South China Seas, including the Marianas, the Philippines, Vietnam, and southern China, and increased exposure in the region of the East China Sea, including Japan and its Ryukyu Islands, the Korea Peninsula, and parts of eastern China. Additionally, it is shown that projections of WNP TCs simulated by, and downscaled from, an ensemble of numerical models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) demonstrate a continuing poleward migration into the present century following the emissions projections of the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The projected migration causes a shift in regional TC exposure that is very similar in pattern and relative amplitude to the past observed shift. In terms of regional differences in vulnerability and resilience based on past TC exposure, the potential ramifications of these future changes are significant. Questions of attribution for the changes are discussed in terms of tropical belt expansion and Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability.

Abstract. Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This research reviewed the existing estimation methods of Rmax based on the central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over or underestimated Rmax because of the substantial variety of the data, though an average radius could be moderately estimated. Alternatively, we proposed an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 knot wind (R50). The data obtained during the passage of strong typhoons by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago enabled us to derive the following formula, Rmax = 0.23R50. Although this new method substantially improved the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, an estimation error was unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation from 2013 Typhoon Haiyan demonstrated a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations, independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over or underestimation of storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the reliability of storm surge prediction and contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the Western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines, and Vietnam.

Abstract. Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estimation methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage of strong typhoons, together with the JMA typhoon best track data for 1990–2013, enabled us to derive the following simple equation, Rmax = 0.23 R50. Application to a recent strong typhoon, the 2015 Typhoon Goni, confirms that the equation provides a good estimation of Rmax, particularly when the central pressure became considerably low. Although this new method substantially improves the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, estimation errors are unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation for the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan as well as 2015 Typhoon Goni demonstrates a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations (e.g., Rmax = 0.15 R50–0.35 R50), independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over- or underestimating storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the predictability of major storm surges and to contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

AbstractThis study examines the teleconnection between sea surface temperature (SST) in different ocean regions and tropical cyclone (TC) activity affecting Vietnam’s coastal region. Using spatial correlation and principal component analyses, it is found that the variability of TCs affecting Vietnam during 1982–2018 is remotely connected with SST in the Indian Ocean, the southwestern Pacific Ocean, and the northern Philippine Sea. Among the three regions, SST in the northern Philippine Sea displays the most significant inverse relationship with TC activity in the South China Sea (SCS), with lower June–November TC accumulated energy (ACE) for warmer northern Philippine Sea SST. Further analyses of large-scale atmospheric circulations show that this teleconnection between the northern Philippine Sea SST and TC activity in the SCS is linked to the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ). Principal component analyses of the 200-hPa zonal wind associated with EASJ capture indeed a strong relationship between the second principal component, which characterizes the EASJ intensity, and ACE. Specifically, higher EASJ intensity corresponding to colder northern Philippine Sea SST would enhance large-scale ascending motion and low-level cyclonic anomalies in the SCS, which are favorable for TC formation and result in an overall increased ACE. Examination of the correlation between this second principal component and the northern Philippine Sea SST confirms that this correlation is statistically significant at a 95% confidence level. In this regard, these results support the Pacific–Japan teleconnection between the northern Philippine Sea SST and TC activity in the SCS.

Climate change induced sea-level rise (SLR) is on its increase globally. Regionally the lowlands of China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and islands of the Malaysian, Indonesian and Philippine archipelagos are among the world’s most threatened regions. Sea-level rise has major impacts on the ecosystems and society. It threatens coastal populations, economic activities, and fragile ecosystems as mangroves, coastal salt-marches and wetlands. This paper provides a summary of the current state of knowledge of sea level-rise and its effects on both human and natural ecosystems. The focus is on coastal urban areas and low lying deltas in South-East Asia and Vietnam, as one of the most threatened areas in the world. About 3 mm per year reflects the growing consensus on the average SLR worldwide. The trend speeds up during recent decades. The figures are subject to local, temporal and methodological variation. In Vietnam the average values of 3.3 mm per year during the 1993-2014 period are above the worldwide average. Although a basic conceptual understanding exists that the increasing global frequency of the strongest tropical cyclones is related with the increasing temperature and SLR, this relationship is insufficiently understood. Moreover the precise, complex environmental, economic, social, and health impacts are currently unclear. SLR, storms and changing precipitation patterns increase flood risks, in particular in urban areas. Part of the current scientific debate is on how urban agglomeration can be made more resilient to flood risks. Where originally mainly technical interventions dominated this discussion, it becomes increasingly clear that proactive special planning, flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and flood recovery are important, but costly instruments. Next to the main focus on SLR and its effects on resilience, the paper reviews main SLR associated impacts: Floods and inundation, salinization, shoreline change, and effects on mangroves and wetlands. The hazards of SLR related floods increase fastest in urban areas. This is related with both the increasing surface major cities are expected to occupy during the decades to come and the increasing coastal population. In particular Asia and its megacities in the southern part of the continent are increasingly at risk. The discussion points to complexity, inter-disciplinarity, and the related uncertainty, as core characteristics. An integrated combination of mitigation, adaptation and resilience measures is currently considered as the most indicated way to resist SLR today and in the near future.References Aerts J.C.J.H., Hassan A., Savenije H.H.G., Khan M.F., 2000. Using GIS tools and rapid assessment techniques for determining salt intrusion: Stream a river basin management instrument. 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The 30–31 October 2008 Hanoi, Vietnam, heavy rainfall–flood (HRF) event occurred unusually farther north than other Vietnam events. The cause of this event is explored with multiple-scale processes in the context of the midlatitude–tropical interaction. In the midlatitudes, the cold surge linked to the Hanoi event can be traced westward to the leeside cyclogenesis between the Altai Mountains and Tianshan. This cyclone developed into a Bering Sea explosive cyclone later, simultaneously with the occurrence of the Hanoi HRF event. In the tropics, a cold surge vortex formed on 26 October, south of the Philippines, through the interaction of an easterly disturbance, an already existing small surface vortex in the Celebes Sea, and the eastern Asian cold surge flow. This cold surge vortex developed into a cyclone, juxtaposed with the surface high of the cold surge flow, and established a strong moist southeasterly flow from the South China Sea to Hanoi, which helped maintain the HRF event. Spectral analysis of the zonal winds north and south of the Hanoi HRF cyclone and rainfall at Hanoi reveal the existence of three monsoon modes: 30–60, 12–24, and 5 days. The cold surge vortex developed into an HRF cyclone in conjunction with the in-phase constructive interference of the three monsoon modes, while the Hanoi HRF event was hydrologically maintained by the northwestward flux of water vapor into Hanoi by these monsoon modes.

Typhoons are considered as the most destructive natural disaster in Vietnam. Typhoons that have the intensity scale greater than 10 or 11 (Beaufort scale) cause sever damages to houses and buildings on their paths. Typhoons associated with inundation can also create short- and long-term damages to national socio-economy and have negative impacts on the country’s economic development. The typhoon affected area can be from hundreds to thousands of kilometres depending on the landfall of the typhoon. In Vietnam, the typhoon season is normally from June to October (occasionally to November or December), and is the most intense in September and October. This paper hence provides the information on typhoons in Vietnam. The paper also introduces the technical solutions recommended for existing and new houses located in the tropical cyclonic areas. The technical solutions presented in this paper are based on the Vietnamese traditional constructions, the results of the research projects conducted by IBST and other Vietnamese institutions as well as the international construction experiences regarding to natural disasters prevention and mitigations.

The national numerical weather prediction system of Vietnam is presented and evaluated. The system is based on three main models, namely, the Japanese Global Spectral Model, the US Global Forecast System, and the US Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The global forecast products have been received at 0.25- and 0.5-degree horizontal resolution, respectively, and the WRF model has been run locally with 16 km horizontal resolution at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting using lateral conditions from GSM and GFS. The model performance is evaluated by comparing model output against observations of precipitation, wind speed, and temperature at 168 weather stations, with daily data from 2010 to 2014. In general, the global models provide more accurate forecasts than the regional models, probably due to the low horizontal resolution in the regional model. Also, the model performance is poorer for stations with altitudes greater than 500 meters above sea level (masl). For tropical cyclone performance validations, the maximum wind surface forecast from global and regional models is also verified against the best track of Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, the model forecast skill during a recent extreme rain event in northeast Vietnam is evaluated.

AbstractThis study examines the climatic shift of the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency affecting Vietnam’s coastal region during 1975–2014. By separating TC databases into two different 20-yr epochs, it is found that there is a consistent increase in both the number of strong TCs and the number of TC occurrences during the recent epoch (1995–2014) as compared with the reference epoch (1975–94) across different TC databases. This finding suggests that not only the number of strong TCs but also the lifetime of strong TCs affecting Vietnam’s coastal region has been recently increasing as compared with the reference epoch from 1975 to 1994. To understand the physical connection of these shifts in the TC frequency and duration, large-scale conditions obtained from reanalysis data are analyzed. Results show that meridional surface temperature gradient (STG) during the recent epoch is substantially larger than that during 1975–94. Such an increase in the meridional STG is important because it is potentially linked to the increase in large-scale vertical wind shear as well as the reduced intensity of summer monsoon in the South China Sea between the two epochs.

Abstract HCTN_12A phytochemical study of extracts of Uvaria boniana Fin. & Gagnep collected at Vũ Quang National park, Nghe An province leaves led to the isolation of five secondary metabolites, including uvaridacol G (1); 4-methyl-4-[(2Z)-3’-phenylprop-2’-en-1’-yl]cyclohex-2-en-1-one (2); 3,7- dimethoxy quercetin 4’- O- [α-L- rhamnopyranosyl-(12) -β-D- glucopyranoside (3); b-sitosterol (4) and stigmasterol (5). Their structure elucidation were determined on the basis of one and two-dimensional NMR and spectrometric methods in combination with molecular modeling. This is the first report on the chemical constituents of Vietnamese Uvaria boniana.

28 years (1980–2007) of station and gridded reanalysis data were used to investigate the effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on autumn rainfall in the Extended Central Vietnam (ECV) region. Results show that, under El Niño conditions, autumn rainfall in Central Vietnam is reduced by about 10 to 30%. This reduction seems to be caused by a weakening of the North East monsoon circulation, which appears to be linked to an anomalous anticyclonic vortex and a positive sea level pressure anomaly over the East Sea. In addition, the disappearance of a secondary moisture source over the southern region of the East Sea also favors the reduction in rainfall over this region. Conversely, during La Niña, the total autumn rainfall in the ECV region increases by about 9 to 19%. The strengthening of the North East monsoon, with a cyclonic wind anomaly over the East Sea, helps to increase the moisture supply to the area by about 10 to 20%, resulting in enhanced rainfall in the ECV. It is also found that the La Niña conditions do not only cause an increase in rainfall, but also change the temporal distribution of the monthly rainfall over the region, with more rainfall in the latter months of the year.

Abstract This study makes improvements to the tropical cyclone (TC) initialization method introduced by Nguyen and Chen (i.e., the NC2011 scheme). The authors found that prescribing sea level pressure associated with the initial vortex using a modified Fujita formula has very little impact on the vortex structure and intensity during a series of 1-h model integration and relocation. On the other hand, inserting an artificial warm core makes the vortex spin up much faster. When a warm core is inserted during the initial spinup process, the computational time required for model initialization is reduced by ½–⅓. Because prescribed sea level pressure is not required to spin up the vortex, information on vortex size, such as radius of maximum wind, is no longer needed. The performance of the improved NC2011 scheme with an initial prescribed warm core during the initial spinup process is tested for typhoons that made landfall over southern China or Vietnam in 2006. Before landfall, these storms were over the open ocean where conventional data were sparse, without special observations. Two sets of model runs, with (NC2011-CTRL) and without (CTRL) vortex initialization, are performed for comparison. The initial and time-dependent boundary conditions are from the NCEP Final Analyses (FNL). There are twelve 48-h simulations in each run set. Results show that the vortex initialization improves TC track and intensity simulations.

Abstract. Long-term changes in rainfall and associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in transition seasons between the wet and dry seasons in South and Southeast Asia, namely boreal spring and fall, were examined, using gridded rainfall, TC tracks, and reanalysis datasets, the focus of discussion being the long-term changes in coastal regions. It was found that long-term changes in rainfall during the transition seasons in South and Southeast Asia were closely associated with those in TC activity over the north Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Rainfall in May increased in the last 40 years over and around Myanmar, which indicates an earlier monsoon onset over the western Indochina Peninsula. Rainfall over and around northern Vietnam also increased in the last 40 years during October, which is known as the monsoon retreat period. These increases were associated with the long-term changes in TC activity. Furthermore, although linear trends have been previously suggested, monotonically increasing or decreasing trends in these long-term changes were not found over the last 60 years.

Abstract This study investigates how tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and landfalls are modulated by the two major components of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), the 30–60-day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the 10–20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). In the convective phases of the MJO (phases 7 + 8 and 1 + 2), the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP) is mainly clustered with westward- and northwestward-moving TCs. The strong easterlies (southeasterlies) in the southern flank of the subtropical high lead to an increase in TC activity and landfalls in the Philippines and Vietnam (China and Japan) in phase 7 + 8 (phase 1 + 2). In the nonconvective phases (phases 3 + 4 and 5 + 6), TCs change from the original straight-moving type to the recurving type, such that the tendency for landfalls is significantly reduced. The QBWO, on the other hand, has a significant influence on TC landfalls in the Philippines and Japan. The strengthening of the subtropical high in phase 1 + 2 favors the development of westward-moving TCs and results in an increase in landfalls in the Philippines, while in phase 3 + 4 (phase 5 + 6), there is an increase (decrease) in TC activity and landfalls in Japan because of changes in genesis locations and large-scale circulations. The results herein suggest that both the MJO and QBWO exert distinctive impacts on TCs in the WNP.

Mesoscale eddy process with at least one splitting and/or merging event can be defined as either a complex process or a simple process. Investigation of the difference between these two categories could provide new insights into how different factors, such as the seabed topography, Kuroshio intrusion, and winds, affect the origin, migration, and decay of the mesoscale eddies. This study compared the characteristics of the complex against the simple eddy processes in the South China Sea (SCS) from 1993 to 2016. We comprehensively analyzed the eddy processes with regards to their characteristic points, trajectories, and networks. The simple and complex processes share many similarities but do show significantly different behaviors. Both the simple and complex processes mainly start from the eastern SCS. However, the complex processes mainly vanish in the western SCS whereas the simple processes disappear almost everywhere across the SCS. The complex processes last longer and migrate more than the simple processes. Lastly, the complex processes mainly move westward within the community. The complex processes can be further categorized into complex anticyclonic and cyclonic eddy processes. Spatially, the splitting and merging events mainly occur in the southwest of Taiwan, northwest of the Luzon Island, and the southeast of Vietnam. Temporally, the merging and splitting events mainly occur in the fall. The interaction among the communities reveals the different migration patterns of the complex anticyclonic and cyclonic eddy processes in the SCS.

AbstractImprovements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945–2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Niño-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945–2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Niño years to the northwest in La Niña years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Niña. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July–October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis– and track–ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Niña–year increases.

Abstract The variability of observed tropical cyclone (TC) activity (i.e., genesis, track, and landfall) in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined in relation to the various categories of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during summer (June–September) for the period 1979–2004. The MJO categories are defined based on the empirical orthogonal function analysis of outgoing longwave radiation data. The number of TCs increases when the MJO-related convection center is located in the WNP. The axis of a preferable genesis region systematically shifts like a seesaw in response to changes in the large-scale environments associated with both the eastward and northward propagation of the MJO and the intraseasonal variability of the WNP subtropical high. Furthermore, the authors show that the density of TC tracks in each MJO category depends on the systematic shift in the main genesis regions at first order. Also, the shift is affected by the prevailing large-scale steering flows in each MJO category. When the MJO-related convection center is found in the equatorial Indian Ocean (the tropical WNP), a dense area of tracks migrates eastward (westward). The effects of extreme ENSO events and the variations occurring during ENSO neutral years are also examined. A statistical analysis of TC landfalls by MJO category is applied in seven selected subareas: the Philippines, Vietnam, South China, Taiwan, East China, Korea, and Japan. While a robust and significant modulation in the number of TC landfalls is observed in south China, Korea, and Japan, the modulation is marginal in the remaining four subareas.

This study goal is to explore Changes of the temperature field during storms and Effects of Cold Air on Structure of Thermal Fields in Typhoons. Typhoons are a kind of tropical cyclone that often occur on tropical or subtropical sea surfaces where the sea surface temperature is higher than 26.5 ◦C (HU et al, 2000). The results show that When affected by cold air, the hot core structure in the storm is broken. Temperature tends to increase gradually from west to east and from north to south. Temperatures in the northern and western regions were still lower than in the center of the storm, but in the eastern and southern areas of the center of the storm, the temperature was higher than in the center of the storm. Near the surface, below 800hPa, the temperature of the center of the storm is also lower than the average temperature of the areas around the center of the storm (except for typhoon Kammuri). The decrease in temperature in the lower central region and areas north and west of the center of the storm is due to the intrusion of the CA. This result demonstrates the role of cold air to the structure of the temperature field in the storm. However, further explanations are needed for the distribution of the maximum hot cores in the center of the storm.