Academic literature on the topic 'Current cold demand'

Abstract Cold storage technology can realize energy storage and release according to demand and balance the power grid by “shifting peak and filling valley”. Ice cold storage system has the outstanding advantages of large cold storage density and simple system, and is the frontier direction of current cold storage technology research and application. However, there are some problems such as low phase transition temperature of cold storage medium and high energy consumption under cold storage condition. The research shows that magnetic field can increase the freezing point of water and aqueous solution by about 3.0-5.0K, which is beneficial to further increase the economic benefit and save energy in refrigeration condition based on the refrigeration demand.

AbstractThis current research endeavors to study important factors having significant impact on consumer’s choice of beverages in Punjab province of Pakistan. Beverages in two major categories of ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ have been studied to examine consumer consumption pattern. Data has been collected through interview from 80 respondents belonging to two major cities of Punjab, i.e. Lahore and Faisalabad, by incorporating stratified random sampling technique. These two cities of Punjab were selected because of big departmental stores opening like Metro Cash and Carry store, Al-Fateh and others. A pre tested and well-arranged questionnaire was used for data gathering from respondents. To estimate the outcome of factors affecting choices of consumers (demand function), multivariate analysis was incorporated. Results of this research showed that consumption pattern of cold beverages was affected significantly by consumer income, cold beverages prices, city selected for survey and number of adolescents in a family, whereas factors which affected the consumption of hot beverages were food expenditure, living area, marital status, income, working persons in a family, family size. Due to availability of copious brands of beverages, consumption is escalating with the passage of time and consumers are eager to pay but owing to high rates they are not relishing full taste of beverages. So, local industry should produce cost effective and quality drinks to enhance usage.

With the development of cold-chain logistics technology, much more cold-chain demand for fresh agriculture products is becoming needed. This paper studies the current development status of cold-chain logistics of fresh agriculture products in China and proposes methods and strategies on how to ensure fresh agriculture products safety and quality in cold-chain transportation problems combining China's existing situation aimed at promoting cold-chain logistics of fresh agriculture products in China with greater competitiveness in the world.

The spread of the corona virus (COVID-19) has had a massive impact on all business sectors in Indonesia. Food cold supply chain is a business sector that is quite badly affected. This is because the food cold chain requires special treatment to maintain its quality, has a relatively short life and cannot be returned. This article discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its social impacts such as social restrictions and area lockdown on the business of food cold chain. It also discusses mitigation that needs to be done to anticipate related issues such as food supply-demand, food safety and some transportation challenges

The efficiency of the outdoor air conditioning systems application depends on how full the installed cooling capacity is applied, that is, with a more complete load and for as long as the possible yearly duration in actual climatic conditions. The production of cold is taken as a criteria of a quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of applying the cooling capacity of air conditioning systems – the amount of cold produced in accordance with its current demand for air conditioning, which in turn depends on the current consumption of cooling capacity and its duration and equals to their multiplication. It is obvious that the maximum value of the current amount of cold produced/consumed indicates an effective application of the installed cooling capacity. However, since the current demands of cooling capacity and their duration, that is, the amount of cold produced/consumed, depending on the changing current climatic conditions, they are characterized by significant fluctuations, which makes it difficult to choose the installed cooling capacity of the air conditioning system. Obviously, if we determine the amount of cold produced/consumed by its current values and summarized during the year, it is possible to significantly simplify the choice of the installed cooling capacity. At the same time, the current amount of cold produced/consumed causes a change in the rate of increment of the annual cold production with a change in the installed cooling capacity, and the maximum rate corresponds to the installed cooling capacity, which provides its efficient use. Proceeding from a different rate of increment of annual cold production with an increase in the installed cooling capacity of the air conditioning system due to a change in heat load in accordance with current climatic conditions during the year, the value of design heat load on the air conditioning system (installed cooling capacity) that provides maximum or close to it the rate of increment of the annual production of cold, and hence the maximum efficient use of installed cooling capacity is chosen

Abstract. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and decrease dependency on depleting fossil fuel resources the shift to a renewable energy system is necessary. District heating and cooling systems are a viable solution to provide heat and cold in urban environments. Renewable heat and cold sources that may get incorporated in future urban energy systems will not provide the same high temperature output as current fossil fuel fired systems. Fifth generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) systems are decentralized, bi-directional, close to ground temperature networks that use direct exchange of warm and cold return flows and thermal storage to balance thermal demand as much as possible. 5GDHC offers a way to incorporate low temperature renewable heat sources including shallow geothermal energy, as well as reduce total demand by recuperating generated heat from cooling and generated cold from heating. The large scale of 5GDHC allows for optimal design of technical parts like heat pumps and thermal storage vessels, while increasing overall system efficiency by incorporating a large variety of supply and demand profiles. We provide a definition for 5GDHC and show how this concept differs from conventional district heating systems. The Mijnwater system in Heerlen, the Netherlands is showing what a city-level 5GDHC system can look like.

Indoor cold discomfort in Qatar due to “building overcooling” is increasing, as air-conditioning prevails, and global temperatures rise. Overcooling is not dependent only on the inappropriate design of cooling systems, but on “international” thermal comfort standards that are not customized for warm climates. International standards are unintentionally biased towards cooler climates and cultures, the application of which in warm climates result in colder indoor temperatures observed by building occupants and increased cooling energy demand. Overcooling is an over-expenditure of energy, resulting in uncomfortably cold indoor thermal conditions, and unnecessary carbon emissions. In this study, the analysis of field data from 6 office buildings in Doha in a range of indoor thermal conditions and investigation of overcooling on occupant comfort and building performance is conducted. The analysis uncovers over 35% of occupants state being uncomfortably cold and a consensus across the surveys highlight comfortable temperatures higher by 2°C from current setpoint temperatures. Greater occupant comfort and energy efficiency are found by increasing the indoor temperature setpoints investigated through thermal comfort analysis and energy simulation models. Around 50% decrease in occupant discomfort and a 15% decrease in cooling energy demand is found. Such an adjustment in Qatar would improve occupant comfort levels and reduce cooling energy demand throughout the existing office building stock.

As the physical carrier of the energy Internet, the integrated energy system has become the focus of current research. Considering the renewable energy and demand side load fluctuations, using the price type and the alternative demand side response characteristics, a day-ahead and intraday optimization scheduling model that takes into account the demand side response is established, in which the intraday, according to the difference of electricity, cold/heat and natural gas scheduling time, a three-layer rolling optimization scheduling model is proposed. The example analysis shows that this model can suppress the fluctuation of renewable energy and load in the day, improve the stability of the system, and further reduce the operating cost of the system.

This article reviews the scholarship on Cold War sexuality issues prior to the 1969 Stonewall riots, paying particular attention to recent books by Robert J. Corber, Michael S. Sherry, and Jennifer V. Evans. The Cold War in the West affected both the lived and the discursive realities of sexual minorities in a paradoxical way. On the one hand, anxieties about the superpower rivalry facilitated regulatory frameworks and social demarcation lines that profoundly circumscribed the agency of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender groups and individuals. On the other hand, these borders and regulatory systems often backfired, subverted their intended function, or simply produced unintended consequences. Although repression of non-normative sexual and gender identities remained a fact of life during the first two-and-a half decades of the Cold War, it does not reveal the totality of the Cold War experience. The current research on Cold War sexualities demonstrates that Cold War culture can thus be best understood as a complex system in which fissures and breaks were as salient as the demand for uniformity and control.

Utilization of gamma titanium aluminide alloys in aerospace and automotive/industrial applications has placed significant demand on melting sources for products to be used in cast, wrought, and direct-machining applications. There is also an increased demand for input stock used in gas atomization of powders. Current technologies used in ingot manufacturing include plasma arc melting, vacuum arc melting, and induction skull melting + centrifugal casting. Subsequent processing may include forging, re-melting + casting, or machining directly into components. Over the past six years, Arconic Engineered Structures has developed a robust melting method using plasma cold-hearth melting technology, including the design and implementation of a new 3-torch system to produce Ti-48-2-2 cast bars. General discussions concerning plasma cold-hearth melting, manufacturing challenges, and metallurgical attributes associated with cast Ti-48-2-2 bars will be reviewed. Emphasis will be on understanding the impact of hot isostatic pressing on internal voids, residual stress cracking and resulting mechanical properties.

Визначення встановленої холодопродуктивності системи кондиціювання зовнішнього повітря за поточними тепловими навантаженнями = Determining cooling capacity of ambient air conditioning system according to current heat loads / Є. І. Трушляков, А. М. Радченко, А. А. Зубарєв, В. С. Ткаченко, Я. Зонмін, С. Г. Фордуй // Матеріали X міжнар. наук.-техн. конф. "Інновації в суднобудуванні та океанотехніці". В 2 т. – Миколаїв : НУК, 2019. – Т. 1. – С. 447–451.
Анотація. Ефективність застосування систем кондиціювання зовнішнього повітря залежить від того, наскільки повно використовуються встановлені холодильні потужності в конкретних кліматичних умовах, тобто за більш повного навантаження і тривалого часу упродовж року. За показник кількісної оцінки ефективності використання холодильної потужності систем кондиціювання повітря взято виробництво холоду – кількість виробленого холоду відповідно до його поточних витрат на кондиціювання повітря, яка в свою чергу залежить від поточних витрат холодопродуктивності та тривалості роботи системи кондиціювання за цих витрат і представляє собою їх добуток. Вочевидь, що максимальна величина поточної кількості виробленого/витраченого холоду свідчить про ефективне використання встановленої холодильної потужності. Однак, оскільки поточні витрати холодопродуктивності та їх тривалість, тобто кількість виробленого/витраченого холоду, залежать від змінних поточних кліматичних умов, то вони теж характеризуються значними коливаннями, що ускладнює вибір встановленої холодопродуктивності системи кондиціювання повітря. Вочевидь, якщо визначати кількість виробленого/витраченого холоду за його поточними величинами і нарощуванням упродовж року, то можна суттєво спростити вибір встановленої холодопродуктивності. При цьому поточна кількість виробленого/витраченого холоду спричиняє зміну темпу прирощення річного виробництва холоду зі зміною встановленої холодопродуктивності і максимальному темпу відповідає встановлена холодопродуктивність, яка забезпечує її ефективне використання. Виходячи з різного темпу прирощення річного виробництва холоду зі збільшенням встановленої холодопродуктивності системи кондиціювання повітря, обумовленого зміною теплового навантаження відповідно до поточних кліматичних умов упродовж року, вибирають таку величину проектного теплового навантаження на систему кондиціювання повітря (встановлену холодопродуктивність), яка забезпечує максимальний або близький до нього темп прирощення річного виробництва холоду, а відтак і максимальну ефективність використання встановленої холодильної потужності.
Abstract. The efficiency of the use of outdoor air conditioning systems depends on how full the installed cooling capacity is used, that is, with a more complete load and for as long as possible yearly duration in actual climatic conditions. The production of cold is taken as a criteria of a quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of using the cooling capacity of air conditioning systems – the amount of cold produced in accordance with its current demand for air conditioning, which in turn depends on the current consumption of cooling capacity and its duration and equals to their multiplication. It is obvious that the maximum value of the current amount of cold produced/consumed indicates an effective use of the installed cooling capacity. However, since the current demands of cooling capacity and their duration, that is, the amount of cold produced/consumed, depend on the changing current climatic conditions, they are characterized by significant fluctuations, which makes it difficult to choose the installed cooling capacity of the air conditioning system. Obviously, if we determine the amount of cold produced/consumed by its current values and summarized during the year, it is possible to significantly simplify the choice of the installed cooling capacity. At the same time, the current amount of cold produced/consumed causes a change in the rate of increment of the annual cold production with a change in the installed cooling capacity, and the maximum rate corresponds to the installed cooling capacity, which provides its efficient use. Proceeding from a different rate of increment of annual cold production with an increase in the installed cooling capacity of the air conditioning system due to a change in heat load in accordance with current climatic conditions during the year, the value of design heat load on the air conditioning system (installed cooling capacity) that provides maximum or close to it the rate of increment of the annual production of cold, and hence the maximum efficiency use of installed cooling capacity is chosen.
Аннотация. Эффективность применения систем кондиционирования наружного воздуха зависит от того, насколько полно используются установленные холодильные мощности, то есть при более полной нагрузке и в течение как можно более длительного времени в течение года, в конкретных климатических условиях. В качестве показателя количественной оценки эффективности использования холодильной мощности систем кондиционирования воздуха взято производство холода – количество произведенного холода в соответствии с его текущим расходованием на кондиционирование воздуха, которое в свою очередь зависит от текущих затрат холодопроизводительности и продолжительности работы системы кондиционирования при этих затратах и представляет собой их произведение. Очевидно, что максимальная величина текущего количества производимого/затраченного холода свидетельствует об эффективном использовании установленной холодильной мощности. Однако, поскольку текущие затраты холодопроизводительности и их продолжительность, то есть количество производимого/затраченного холода, зависят от меняющихся текущих климатических условий, то они характеризуются значительными колебаниями, что затрудняет выбор установленной холодопроизводительности системы кондиционирования воздуха. Очевидно, если определять количество производимого/затраченного холода по его текущим величинам и наращиванию в течение года, то можно существенно упростить выбор установленной холодопроизводительности. При этом текущее количество производимого/затраченного холода вызывает изменение темпа приращения годового производства холода с изменением установленной холодопроизводительности, и максимальному темпу соответствует установленная холодопроизводительность, которая обеспечивает ее эффективное использование. Исходя из разного темпа, приращение годового производства холода с увеличением установленной холодопроизводительности системы кондиционирования воздуха, обусловленного изменением тепловой нагрузки в соответствии с текущими климатическими условиями в течение года, выбирают такую величину проектной тепловой нагрузки на систему кондиционирования воздуха (установленную холодопроизводительность), которая обеспечивает максимальный или близкий к нему темп приращения годового производства холода, а значит и максимальную эффективность использования установленной холодильной мощности.

This chapter starts by analysing three major problems of the current international monetary system: the asymmetric-adjustment problem, dependence on the monetary policy of the main reserve-issuing country, and the large demand for self-insurance by developing countries. It then explores two basic alternatives to reform the system: one route would involve a fully-fledged multi-currency reserve system; the alternative route would be to design an architecture based on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), the world’s only truly global reserve asset. These two alternative routes could be mixed in a number of ways, and in fact their complementary use may be the only possible way forward. Under such a mixed system, SDRs would become a major global reserve asset and the source of financing for IMF lending, but national/regional currencies would continue to be used as international means of payment and stores of value.

As threats to the security of information pervade the fabric of everyday life, this book describes how, even as the demand for information security increases, the needs of society are not being met. The result is that the confidentiality of our personal data, the integrity of our elections, and the stability of foreign relations between countries are increasingly at risk. The book convincingly shows that emergency software patches and new security products cannot provide the solution to threats such as computer hacking, viruses, software vulnerabilities, and electronic spying. Profound underlying structural problems must first be understood, confronted, and then addressed. This book delivers a long view of the history of information security, beginning with the creation of the first digital computers during the Cold War. From the key institutions of the so-called military industrial complex in the 1950s to Silicon Valley start-ups in the 2020s, the relentless pursuit of new technologies has come at great cost. The absence of knowledge regarding the history of information security has caused the lessons of the past to be forsaken for the novelty of the present, and has led us to be collectively unable to meet the needs of the current day. From the very beginning of the information age, claims of secure systems have been crushed by practical reality. The myriad risks to technology, the book reveals, cannot be addressed without first understanding how we arrived at this moment. The book is an enlightening and sobering history of a topic that affects crucial aspects of our lives.

This chapter describes four fiscal squeezes across two decades marked by broadly full employment and no major recession, albeit with slow economic growth, recurring currency crises, and ‘stop-go’ policies to dampen consumer demand. The first squeeze in the mid-1950s reflected the Conservatives’ uphill struggle to deliver on their 1951 election promise to cut taxes and ‘set the people free’ against the background of currency weakness and the Korean and Cold Wars. Spending restraint in this era put the emphasis on cutting wartime legacy spending rather than checking the core drivers of welfare state growth. The subsequent three squeezes under Conservative and Labour Governments in the 1960s all put a heavier emphasis on revenue than spending to support welfare state expenditure and stabilize the currency, but the Wilson Labour Government made significant defence cuts in the late 1960s.

The book deals with the 1997 Asian currency crisis and analyses the causes and consequences of the crisis.The two hypotheses, fundamental and panic/herd behavior hypotheses, which are often viewed as competing, are also examined. The first hypothesis states that fundamental imbalances triggered the Asian currency and financial crisis in 1997.The crisis occurred because the economies had deteriorating current accounts, a slow down in growth rates and short-term debt approaching a dangerous level; while the second hypothesis states that sudden shifts in market expectations and confidence were the cause of the initial financial turmoil.When the crisis erupted, it caused panic among domestic and foreign investors. The main focus of this book is to evaluate these two approaches and to examine whether there was evidence of insolvency prior to the crisis in four Asian countries namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. A solvency index, originally popularized by Cohen, is calculated for each country.An analysis of the trade sector is undertaken in which the dynamic OLS is employed. Subsequently, the price elasticities obtained from the export demand model together with the GDP supply elasticity are used to calculate the index. From the analysis, it appears that all countries were solvent prior to the crisis where the percentage of actual debt service paid (in 1997) was greater than the percentage that must be paid to be solvent. This suggests that further external credit could have solved the problem, as it was a matter of short-term liquidity difficulties and panic, rather than insolvency.

This chapter examines Gregory Benford's series of science fiction novels that could be classified as “science thrillers”: Cosm (1999), The Martian Race (1999), and Eater (2000). In these novels, some strange and often menacing occurrence (such as the approach of an alien object to Earth) triggers conflict between scientists, government interests, and global politics. Benford's scientific thrillers—in their detailed descriptions of how science works, how it is conducted in the laboratory, and how this interacts with personal conflicts and institutional politics—hearken back to an important current in his fiction that began with In the Ocean of Night and was perfected in Timescape (1980). Seamlessly integrating social activity and scientific research, Timescape represents a moment of supreme balance between the demands of science and of fiction.

This book tells the story of Torgsin, a chain of retail shops established in 1930 with the aim of raising the hard currency needed to finance the USSR's ambitious industrialization program. At a time of desperate scarcity, Torgsin had access to the country's best foodstuffs and goods. Initially, only foreigners were allowed to shop in Torgsin, but the acute demand for hard-currency revenues forced Stalin to open Torgsin to Soviet citizens who could exchange tsarist gold coins and objects made of precious metals and gemstones, as well as foreign monies, for foods and goods in its shops. Through analysis of the large-scale, state-run entrepreneurship represented by Torgsin, the book highlights the complexity and contradictions of Stalinism. Driven by the state's hunger for gold and the people's starvation, Torgsin rejected Marxist postulates of the socialist political economy: the notorious class approach and the state hard-currency monopoly. In its pursuit for gold, Torgsin advertised in the capitalist West, encouraging foreigners to purchase goods for their relatives in the USSR; and its seaport shops and restaurants operated semi-legally as brothels, inducing foreign sailors to spend hard currency for Soviet industrialization. Examining Torgsin from multiple perspectives — economic expediency, state and police surveillance, consumerism, even interior design and personnel — the book radically transforms the stereotypical view of the Soviet economy and enriches our understanding of everyday life in Stalin's Russia.

The world’s systems of higher education (HE) are caught up in the fourth industrial revolution of the twenty-first century. Driven by increased globalization, demographic expansion in demand for education, new information and communications technology, and changing cost structures influencing societal expectations and control, higher education systems across the globe are adapting to the pressures of this new industrial environment. To make sense of the complex changes in the practices and structures of higher education, this Handbook sets out a theoretical framework to explain what higher education systems are, how they may be compared over time, and why comparisons are important in terms of societal progress in an increasingly interconnected world. Drawing on insights from over 40 leading international scholars and practitioners, the chapters examine the main challenges facing institutions of Higher Educations, how they should be managed in changing conditions, and the societal implications of different approaches to change. Structured around the premise that higher education plays a significant role in ensuring that a society achieves the capacity to adjust itself to change, while at the same time remaining cohesive as a social system, this Handbook explores how current internal and external forces disturb this balance, and how institutions of Higher Education could, and might, respond.

Using striking examples of imprisonment in different continents and cultures Prisons of the World raises fundamental questions about the manner in which governments and societies (mis)use prison as a response to a wide range of fundamental social, economic and political issues. It describes the mistreatment of women prisoners in North America and the United Kingdom and of elderly prisoners in Japan, the intractable influence of gangs in Latin America, the legacy of colonialism in South Africa and the Caribbean and the continuing influence of the Gulag system in many countries of the former Soviet Union. The book discusses the work of international bodies such as the Committee for the Prevention of Torture in Europe, the involvement of the Inter American Court of Human Rights in the Caribbean and of court interventions in respect of the excessive use of solitary confinement in Canada and the United States. There is also a description of the author’s involvement in a unique instance of prison monitoring to resolve a violent dispute between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The book concludes by offering some positive pointers for the future. In the medium term many of the resources which are currently invested in the demand led imprisonment industry could be transferred to initiatives such as those which are known as Justice Reinvestment and in the longer term radical change could be achieved through use of the Human Development model.

Reforms in labour and product markets play a central role in government policies. The issue of whether structural reforms lead to higher economic growth remains controversial. Researchers in this field tend to agree on the positive role that reforms could play in driving growth as a result of efficiency gains and technological progress. However, reforms may have some negative impacts. One concern is about the timing: structural reforms may not be effective but turn out to be negative when the economy is in a recession and demand is weak. The other concern is structural reforms may lead to income inequality which weakens political support for further reforms. These topics have, in the context of globalization and European integration, attracted great research interest among scholars. This book provides an assessment of past progress and takes stock of current frontier work. It brings together leading contributions from academia, the central banks in Europe, and the OECD. We are convinced that some structural reforms can make a fundamental contribution to improving economic performance across Europe as well as to promoting European integration. Yet we believe that comprehensive, critical, and non-dogmatic assessments of the costs and benefits of different reform programmes are key to guiding future policies. This will allow us to identify the conditions under which structural reforms are beneficial. We believe that future research requires a substantial shift from evaluating generalized direct impacts of structural reforms on economic growth to a broader set of issues and research questions.

Nuclear power may just be the most important solution to our search for clean, sustainable energy sources. Although wind and solar can contribute to our energy mix, we need a reliable source to meet large-scale energy demands and break our dependence on fossil fuels. However, most people are wary, if not downright afraid, of nuclear power. Given nuclear disasters such as Chernobyl and Fukushima, it's not difficult to see why. In the wake of these events, fear has clouded the public's understanding of the facts. It's time to clear up those misconceptions and examine the science behind nuclear power, in order to determine what role it could and should play in our future. In Why We Need Power: The Environmental Case, radiation biologist Michael H. Fox argues that nuclear power is essential to slowing down the impact of global warming. He examines the issue from every angle, relying on thirty-five years of research spent studying the biological effects of radiation. Fox begins with the problem, carefully laying out how our current energy uses and projections for the future will affect greenhouse gases and global warming. The book then evaluates each major energy source and demonstrates the limits of renewable energy sources, concluding that nuclear power is the best solution to our environmental crisis. Fox then delves into nuclear power, looking at the effects of radiation, the potential for nuclear accidents, and the best methods to dispose of nuclear waste. By systematically analyzing each aspect of the nuclear issue, Fox clarifies which concerns have a scientific basis and which remain unsupported. His in-depth exploration of the facts persuasively demonstrates that nuclear power is critical to reducing the effects of energy production on the global climate. Written in an engaging and accessible style, Why We Need Nuclear Power is an invaluable resource for both general readers and scientists interested in the facts behind nuclear energy.

AbstractThis chapter examines from systems and livelihood perspectives, with Nemoral and Boreal forest zones of the Global North and Sweden as examples, how forestry may meet current and future sustainability challenges both as a traditional resource base and with respect to other ecosystem services. Previous and current forest policy/governance is briefly described against the background that Swedish forestry is based both on huge holdings by few industrial owners as well as on a multitude of small individual, often family owned, forest estates. Successful delivery against environmental objectives will require careful balancing of interests and the active participation of local forest owners. Cumulative effects of old and new societal demands on forestry and their impact on local livelihoods poses in this respect a systemic risk as economic and social sustainability often gets limited consideration. There is a need for a more synoptic and systemic analysis of how forestry is affected by multiple, partly contradictory, demands from an increasing array of stakeholders, in order to enable a move towards a biobased economy. Stakeholder-based group modelling is a potentially powerful analytic and conflict reducing approach that could help improve forestry’s contribution to the acute need to handle the climate change and current sustainability challenges.

AbstractThe Dutch Republic underwent a process of state formation, accelerated economic growth and military reforms during the Eighty Years War. In particular between 1585 and 1621, Dutch merchant-entrepreneurs built up a burgeoning arms industry and sector of arms exports. These exports required a system of passports, still an under-researched theme in current literature, organized by the States-General and admiralties in order to support exports to neutral and allied states, but to forestall these did not fall into enemy hands. In particular, the system of passports shows how merchants, acting as intermediaries between allies and the States-General and the admiralties, could meet the volatile demand of war materials. As a result, the supply side of the export market was oligopolistic, but the composition of the group of oligopolists varied depending on the region and the prevailing market conditions in question. From this study it can be concluded that the system of export control had only a limited effectiveness regarding the creative arms exports to Spanish Habsburg destinations, due to divergent central and local interests. However, the major part of the Dutch arms exports flowed to allies such as France, Venice, Sweden and the German protestant states. Dutch merchants provided them with batches of strategic materials and total package-deals of armaments for entire army and navy units. From 1621, the States-General supported these transactions by supplying war materials from the state arsenals fostering timely and largescale deliveries, meeting volatile demand conditions.

AbstractInformation and knowledge resources to support climate action (climate services) have been the subject of investments by European and national funding agencies and by the private sector in response to a growing demand and requirements to support climate-related actions. The extent to which the current state of these resources are consistent with and attributable to these investments still requires further assessment. There have been efforts to continue to inform such investments and to stimulate the climate service market. These to some degree identified remaining and emerging gaps, including those intending to support enhancing the breadth, quality and relevance of products and services, the infrastructure supporting the climate service public and private market domains and the factors enabling market growth. The criticality of realising the benefits from the availability and use of this intelligence is increasing and evolving as Europe and the rest of the world call for a transition to a climate-resilient and a low-carbon society and economy. To realise and sustain this potential, there is the need for a systematic assessment of the impacts of previous investments and of where and what type of investments could enhance the impacts in terms of informing action—exploring and identifying shared pathways to enable the development and use of climate services.

AbstractThis chapter aims to describe the role of innovation and digital solutions in facing the mobility needs of the rural areas and tourist destinations and, at the same time, to discuss the problems and conditions for their use in the provision of the different mobility and transport services. Innovation in the mobility provision chain is analysed in relation to the relevant service elements (schemes, planning, programming, evaluation and support) in order to clarify that innovation does not automatically mean digital solutions. An overview of the emerging trends in digital solutions is provided, focusing on the Mobility as a Service (MaaS) concept and mobile applications. For the APP, market-specific considerations are developed on the different roles and typologies, making a classification for understanding current Mobility APP “Jungle”. Moreover, the concept of Shared Use Mobility Agency (SUMA) is presented. SUMA aims to integrate smart mobility services under the concept of MaaS in order to answer to the mobility needs of residents and tourists acting on the demand and providing coordinated collective and ridesharing transport services. SUMA could be considered an “innovative” approach mixing advanced digital architecture and shared mobility schemes with the relevant organization, operation and business elements. Section 5 presents the SUMA implementation in Elba island (Regione Toscana-Italy), within CIVITAS DESTINATIONS project underlying the specifications of the platform and APP. Finally, besides the specific recommendations provided in each section, key recommendations for Mobility Authority and Transport Operators are spotlighted.

Although Boeing and Rolls-Royce are operating in the same aerospace industry sector and use ERP, but the ways that they implemented their systems are completely different. Boeing uses big bang and treats ERP as a system implementation, whilst Rolls-Royce uses phased implementation and treats ERP as a philosophy. Both companies experience different outcome as a result of their approaches. (Koh, 2006) Dell has a “build-to-order” business model that clearly integrates both supply and demand chains. That model has worked astonishingly well for Dell, its customers and its key suppliers. In fact, Dell could not do what it does if it designed and managed its supply chains and Customer Relationship Management (CRM) as separate technical entities. The “build-to-order” business value proposition demands an architecture that inherently integrates customers and suppliers. Yes, Dell has a “supply chain,” but it coevolves in the context of explicit customer demand. (Gunasekaran and Ngai, 2005).

The chapter examines Red Sparrow as commentary on current U.S. politics. In a time when traditional identity values are at stake, the two current governments of Russia and the U.S both operate at the expense of the individual. As a second Cold War film, Red Sparrow acts a mirror, manipulating American fascination with Russia to direct Americans’ gaze at themselves. In the process, the film evokes a reevaluation of how Americans maintain traditionally held values, including concepts of duty and patriotism, even if that loyalty demands contesting America’s own corruption. Thus, this chapter argues that Red Sparrow compels its viewers to reevaluate their values in light of how the new Cold War is being fought: not conventionally, but on a much more personal level compelling individual choice.

This chapter describes the current situation of the chemical manufacturing industry and looks to the future demands on the sector such as: for sustainability, the advent of new bio-based feedstocks for improved energy management and the implications of these demands on the sector. These implications include definitions of sustainability criteria for the chemical manufacturing industry and the need for transparent reporting following the Triple Bottom Line approach. The important role of chemical (or more generally, process) engineers in delivering bio-based sustainable solutions is emphasised, but this also suggests that a new way of thinking about the discipline is required. Indeed, there are arguments that the demand for a sustainable chemical manufacturing sector could bring about the next paradigm shift in the discipline with concomitant education implications.

This chapter investigates the effects generated by the currency crisis. The countries experienced the currency turmoil confronted financial crisis, economic deterioration, and increase of unemployment. This chapter empirically examines the effect of currency depreciation on the real GDP and the unemployment rates in those countries by employing the structural vector autoregressive model, which attempts to clarify whether identified supply or demand shocks can be caused by exchange rate depreciation. This study suggests currency crisis might generate demand shock, to result in harmful impacts to real economy in those countries. Those could be considered as negative effects of the ICT innovation.

Australia’s ageing population has escalated the demand for current health services and the trend could compound to unsustainable levels under the current health system. This chapter proposes a preventative healthcare model based on assistive technology to strengthen wellbeing at the individual and community level. The proposed model could minimise premature and inappropriate admission of Australians to care facilities while enhancing their independence and self care. It could also present a cost effective approach for policy makers by helping to alleviate the escalating costs of the health system. Importantly, this program offers an effective and sustainable alternative for delivering future health services.

With increasing demand for meat and dairy products but limited capacity for expanding crop production, there is need for alternative feed sources. Careful selection of seaweed species based on nutrient content and profiles could allow successful use of seaweed as an alternative protein supplement in animal feeds. This chapter introduces seaweed as a potential alternative protein supplement in animal feeds as well as current challenges in its use.

Commercially available heat pump water heaters (HPWH) have been used successfully in warm humid climates (southern United States), and recently, have been proven effective in replacing electric water heater technology in cooler climates within Canada. Using an air source HPWH unit within a dwelling can yield electrical coefficients of performance that are indicative of significant energy savings, but can also add an additional load to the space heating system. Current control strategies do not attempt to mitigate the heating load added to the surrounding space, and only consider the water temperature in the tank. This is because, to date, the primary application has been in sub-tropical climates where cooling is frequently beneficial. Starting in 2015, the US Department of Energy is mandating that all electric water heaters have an energy factor (unit of heat applied to hot water per unit of energy applied to the system) greater than 2, which makes technologies that utilize electrical coefficients of performance, such as HPWH technology, mandatory. To ease the inevitable transition to heat pump water heaters in lieu of electric water heaters, modified control strategies that highlight using thermal storage to reduce space heating loads must be implemented. This paper presents a study which was conducted to evaluate the performance of a commercially available HPWH with modified controls. The HPWH is first characterized experimentally under a series of different thermal conditions and draw parameters. The test tank contains a 1500 W electric auxiliary heater that provides on demand heat to the top 0.30 m (1 ft) of the tank, and a wraparound heating coil. An air source heat pump, using R-134A as the refrigerant, draws air from, and returns air to the surrounding space and provides heating to the whole tank through the coil. The tank has been tested using Canadian Standards Association draw profiles to characterize performance under different hot water demands. Electricity consumption and thermal flux is measured for each vertical tank section, and various performance metrics are calculated using energy balances. A TRNSYS model is then calibrated to the experimental data to allow for the flexibility of varying multiple parameters over various climates. Using this calibrated TRNSYS model, an optimal control strategy and tank set-points can be determined for use in cold climates. As expected from previous work, there is a decrease in performance of the heat pump when heating the tank to higher temperatures to facilitate thermal storage, but the benefits from taking advantage of shifting electrical demand (of water heating) to space heating demand can outweigh the loss of performance.

The increasing complexity in the development and manufacturing process of internal combustion engines leads to a higher demand for more effective testing and monitoring methods. Cold engine testing becomes progressively the main End-of-Line test which is used nowadays from automotive engine manufacturers with the purpose of determining the integrity of engine assembly. The present work is focused on the development of a detailed physics-based, lumped-parameter, dynamic model of a single cylinder internal combustion engine coupled with an alternating current transient dynamometer for cold engine testing applications. The overall transient engine test cell model is described based on a two-inertia system model consisting of the engine, the dynamometer and the coupling shaft. The internal combustion engine is modelled based on First Law of Thermodynamics and Second Newton’s Law for rotational bodies. The transient dynamometer is actually an alternating current three-phase induction motor which is modelled according to direct-quadrature axis approach, and its drive unit which is responsible for controlling the speed of the motor using indirect field orientation scheme. The engine and dynamometer are connected through a coupling shaft which is modelled as a compliant member with damping. The model is validated against experimental measurements such as engine cylinder pressure, engine excitation torque and alternating currents of the induction motor. All of the experimental measurements were recorded from an identical single cylinder transient engine test cell using a highly advanced instrumentation system. The described model serves as an ideal platform for developing innovative model-based fault detection and diagnosis techniques for cold engine testing applications. In conclusion, this is presented successfully for two simulated fault cases, a process fault and a sensor fault, proving the functionality and usefulness of the model.

The demand for current and future steam turbine components is driven by higher efficiency but also by higher plant cycling needs and optimized cost balance. An increase in efficiency increases the demand for higher life steam temperatures of up to 620/630°C for today’s units and of even up to 720°C for future steam power plants. The gap between required material properties in the hot and cold running parts of a steam turbine rotor is widened by the increased live steam temperatures and the increased demand for flexibility and adaptability to current and expected future energy market conditions. Besides further material development, welding is one measure to realize such contradictory rotor characteristics. Whereas 720°C is more a future related task, solutions for 560°C / 620°C apply already welded rotors. The paper discusses from a perspective of a steam turbine manufacturer the technical features to enable flexible high efficient rotor components with a focus on advanced welding technologies suitable for different large steam turbine components and what further steps for new welding technologies are under way.

A new concept of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) system based on current available technologies is being developed under the framework of the Masdar Institute (MI) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) collaborative Flagship Program. The key feature of this concept lies on concentrating sun light directly on the molten salt storage tank, avoiding the necessity of pumping the salts to the top of a tower thereby avoiding thermal losses and pumping and electric tracing needs inherent in most conventional CSP plants. This Concentrated Solar Power on Demand (CSPonD) volumetric receiver/TES unit prototype will be tested in the existing MI heliostat field and beam down tower in Abu Dhabi (UAE) which will collect and redirect solar energy to an upwards-facing final optical element (FOE). These energy will be concentrated on the aperture of the prototype designed to store 400 kWh of energy allowing 16 hours of continuous production after sunset using Solar Salt (60%NaNO3 + 40%KNO3) as storage material. The tank is divided in two volumes: one cold in the bottom region, where Solar Salt is at 250 °C and another hot on the upper region, at 550 °C. A moving divider plate with active control separates both volumes. The plate includes mixing enhancement features to help with convection on the hot volume of salts. It’s expected that results will demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of this concept allowing its scale up at commercial size.

The increased computational and storage demand has increased the heat dissipation of servers in data centers. The flow inside the data center is highly dynamic due to various parameters such as server workload, server fan speed, tile porosity, Computer Room Air Conditioning (CRAC) air flowrates, CRAC supply & return air temperatures and data center cold & hot aisle arrangements. Data center facility level transient CFD analysis was reported in recent literature which needs weeks to accomplish the computation. Hence, such facility level simulations are difficult to achieve with good accuracy. The main contributions of this paper are transient experiments, transient CFD model & transient effects on thermal and flow field due to variation in server load of server rack inside the raised floor plenum data center. In the current study we have developed a transient CFD model of three racks in a raised floor plenum data center room with cold and hot aisle containment based on experiments. The middle 42U (1U = 4.45 cm) rack houses four server simulators each having height of 10U. The flow tiles supply the cold air as inlet with average velocity of 1.53 m/s at 17°C. All the rack servers were modelled with 75% porosity and estimated thermal mass Each server simulator was assigned a total heat dissipation of 2500 W, with a total heat load of 10 kW per rack. The effect on rack inlet and outlet air temperatures were monitored by providing server heat loads as step & ramp inputs to the middle simulator rack. The results show that the rack level transient effects are significant and cannot be ignored.

Due to the further increasing demand for natural gas, the construction of long-distance pipelines traversing through seismically active regions or arctic regions with ground movement caused by permafrost phenomena will become more and more necessary. To guarantee the safe operation of those pipelines, the pipe material has to fulfill strain-based design requirements in the coated condition. Hence in longitudinal direction low yield-to-tensile ratios, high uniform elongation values and a roundhouse shape of the stress-strain curve combined with sufficient strength values in transverse direction are essential. The basis for appropriate pipe properties is an adequate design of the plate material. To achieve these objectives the microstructure has become a central element. Nevertheless, it has to be taken into account that the cold deformation during the pipe manufacturing process and the heat treatment of the pipe during the subsequent coating have a major influence on the final line pipe behavior. The current paper describes recent development steps and approaches. The mechanical properties of the different concepts will be compared and the advantages and disadvantages will be highlighted.

<p>Glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars are a viable corrosion-resistant reinforcement for concrete bridge structures. This technology is becoming increasingly attractive, especially in aggressive environments as coastal areas or cold-weathered regions where de-icing salts are used.</p><p>The development of a bridge-comprehensive national standard is crucial to foster the deployment of durable GFRP-RC structures. To respond to this demand, a task force of researchers and practitioners has developed a draft for the second edition of the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications for GFRP-RC (AASHTO GFRP-2). The draft was submitted to AASHTO Subcommittee T6 and approved for publication by AASHTO Committee on Bridge and Structures in June 2018.</p><p>Compared to the first 2009 edition of the guidelines, changes were introduced to reflect the current state-of-the-art. The goals included making the provisions more rational, offsetting some over- conservativeness, and harmonizing the design philosophy with that of authoritative national and international guides and standards.</p><p>This paper illustrates the salient contents of the document, with a focus on flexural design. The GFRP-RC deck of the Anthony Wayne Trail Bridge over Norfolk Southern Railroad (OH) is presented as an example of a common application for GFRP bars in cold-weathered regions. The design with GFRP bars according to AASHTO GFRP-2 is compared to an equivalent design performed according to the first edition of the specifications. Furthermore, the design is compared to traditional and non- corrosive steel-RC alternatives. Economic considerations are included.</p>

Humankind can effectively utilize only part of the solar energy reaching a surface of the Earth. It is due to the low density of the solar radiation and its unfavorable distribution. The majority of solar energy falls to the low latitude countries, where space-heating requirements are marginal. In these countries the solar heat is used for preparing water for washing or cleaning purposes, and this process works in one, or — maximum — a few daily cycles. In countries located at higher latitudes, where space heating is necessary in cold months, the current solar energy is insufficient to meet the space heating demand. The heat storage in deep layer of the ground is the one of possible way for solution of this problem. During the heating season, energy storage is discharged supplying the heat pomp cooperating with domestic heating system and during the summer months the storage can be charged by fluid heated in solar collectors. The main aim of presented research was analysis of using the ground layer as a heat storage system in the countries located in higher latitudes. The first variable taken into consideration was the output temperature of water leaving the solar collectors. The temperature distribution in the ground depends on the inlet water temperature, primary heated in the solar collectors, and forced into vertical boreholes. The temperature field in the ground was calculated using the duFort-Frankel finite-difference numerical method. A numerical code for 3D time dependent storage simulation has been created. The next step of analysis was calculation of waters’ temperature at the borehole output during cold months when the ground storage is discharged. This water works as a low-temperature reservoir of the heat pomp supplying the dwelling heating system. The solution of the problem is focused on an optimization of all parameters for the most efficient utilization of energy stored in the ground. The numerical genetic algorithms are scheduled to use to achieve this target.

The demand for more powerful internal combustion engines with lower weight, reduced fuel consumption, and favorable environmental properties has led to engine piston designs having lower weight, reduced thermal expansion, and good thermal conductivity. These improvements were needed without sacrificing high thermal strength, reduced operating friction, and increased wear resistance. The need for reduced frictional properties resulted in pistons with shorter skirt lengths, which led to a reduction in effective hydrodynamic surface area perpendicular to the pin bore. At the same time, complex cold start cycles and fuel injection systems were developed that brought enriched fuel mixtures into the engine, causing a dramatic reduction in the viscosity of the lubricant film and thereby its capabilities to protect the sliding surfaces from wear. These higher mechanical stresses on the piston combined with the reduced lubricating ability of the oil film led to increased friction and wear rates, which often resulted in decreased customer satisfaction due to high noise (i.e., piston “slap”) or complete engine failure. To counteract these tribological problems, a variety of piston coatings were developed, but the composition of these coatings often brought a new set of environmental concerns, e.g., the use of heavy metals. The current solution for this problem is to utilize Anti-friction Coatings (AFC’s) on specific areas of the piston. These coatings are based on solid lubricant technology combined with that of high performance resins. The coatings are resistant to fuels and engine oils over the normal operating temperature range of the engine. They also provide a long-term lubricant coating with exceptional capability to handle intermittent excursions outside an engine’s normal duty cycle.

Increased competition and low oil prices coupled with promising prospects for new oil and gas (O&G) reserves in the Arctic region has led to expansion of activities into the offshore Arctic. This brings along new challenges for the offshore logistics that need to be addressed. These challenges impose more stringent requirements for the logistics system setup, especially on the design and operation of vessels. Copying the logistics system and vessels designed for the North Sea operations is not a sustainable way forward. The few existing studies related to Arctic logistics mainly focus on ship technology solutions for cold and ice infested areas or solutions to the area-specific operational challenges for shipping companies. However, there is a need to understand how these solutions are connected and impact each other in a larger offshore supply logistics system, and thus address the challenges of Arctic logistics as a whole. A methodology for quick evaluation of the feasibility and costs of the logistics system in the early stages of offshore supply planning was developed and presented in previous research [1]. It allows for testing the effects of using alternative ship designs and the overall supply fleet composition on system’s cost and performance while satisfying prospective campaign requirements. Safety standards and requirements for emergency preparedness and environmental performance are taken into account while cost effectiveness of the logistics system as a whole is the main quantifiable measure. Building on the new methodology a simulation tool for remote offshore operations has been developed and is presented in current work. Simulation models allow us to consider the dynamic and uncertain nature of variables, such as variation in weekly transport demand, weather impact on sailing times and fuel consumption, and schedule deviations. The evaluation of the performance of a logistic system is done by simulating the logistic operation over a large number of scenarios. Input parameters are weather data generated from historical observations and probability distributions for transport demand. Output from the tool are key performance indicators for: system costs, logistic robustness and emergency preparedness. The tool consists of three main components: simulation of a regular supply logistics operation, simulation of emergency situations, and visualization of the simulated operations. The proposed methodology and tool are tested on real-life cases for offshore supply planning of drilling campaigns in remote areas for one of the major international O&G operators.

This report describes a methodology for demand estimate through the improvement of load distribution factors in reinforced concrete flat-slab and T-beam bridges. The proposed distribution factors are supported on three-dimensional (3D) Finite Element (FE) analysis tools. The Conventional Load Rating (CLR) method currently in use by INDOT relies on a two-dimensional (2D) analysis based on beam theory. This approach may overestimate bridge demand as the result of neglecting the presence of parapets and sidewalks present in these bridges. The 3D behavior of a bridge and its response could be better modeled through a 3D computational model by including the participation of all elements. This research aims to investigate the potential effect of railings, parapets, sidewalks, and end-diaphragms on demand evaluation for purposes of rating reinforced concrete flat-slab and T-beam bridges using 3D finite element analysis. The project goal is to improve the current lateral load distribution factor by addressing the limitations resulting from the 2D analysis and ignoring the contribution of non-structural components. Through a parametric study of the slab and T-beam bridges in Indiana, the impact of selected parameters on demand estimates was estimated, and modifications to the current load distribution factors in AASHTO were proposed.

Recent advancements of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft have generated significant interest within and beyond the traditional aviation industry, and many novel applications have been identified and are in development. One promising application for these innovative systems is in firefighting, with eVTOL aircraft complementing current firefighting capabilities to help save lives and reduce fire-induced damages. With increased global occurrences and scales of wildfires—not to mention the issues firefighters face during urban and rural firefighting operations daily—eVTOL technology could offer timely, on-demand, and potentially cost-effective aerial mobility capabilities to counter these challenges. Early detection and suppression of wildfires could prevent many fires from becoming large-scale disasters. eVTOL aircraft may not have the capacity of larger aerial assets for firefighting, but targeted suppression, potentially in swarm operations, could be valuable. Most importantly, on-demand aerial extraction of firefighters can be a crucial benefit during wildfire control operations. Aerial firefighter dispatch from local fire stations or vertiports can result in more effective operations, and targeted aerial fire suppression and civilian extraction from high-rise buildings could enhance capabilities significantly. There are some challenges that need to be addressed before the identified capabilities and benefits are realized at scale, including the development of firefighting-specific eVTOL vehicles; sense and avoid capabilities in complex, smoke-inhibited environments; autonomous and remote operating capabilities; charging system compatibility and availability; operator and controller training; dynamic airspace management; and vehicle/fleet logistics and support. Acceptance from both the first-responder community and the general public is also critical for the successful implementation of these new capabilities. The purpose of this report is to identify the benefits and challenges of implementation, as well as some of the potential solutions. Based on the rapid development progress of eVTOL aircraft and infrastructures with proactive community engagement, it is envisioned that these challenges can be addressed soon. NOTE: SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are intended to identify and illuminate key issues in emerging, but still unsettled, technologies of interest to the mobility industry. The goal of SAE EDGE™ Research Reports is to stimulate discussion and work in the hope of promoting and speeding resolution of identified issues. These reports are not intended to resolve the challenges they identify or close any topic to further scrutiny.

Heat pumps are an excellent solution to supply heating and cooling for indoor space conditioning and domestic hot water production. Conventional heat pumps are typically electrically driven and operate with a vapour-compression thermodynamic cycle of refrigerant fluid to transfer heat from a cold source to a warmer sink. This mature technology is cost-effective and achieves appreciable coefficients of performance (COP). The heat pump market demand is driven up by the urge to improve the energy efficiency of building heating systems coupled with the increase of global cooling needs for air-conditioning. Unfortunately, the refrigerants used in current conventional heat pumps can have a large greenhouse or ozone-depletion effect. Alternative gaseous refrigerants have been identified but they present some issues regarding toxicity, flammability, explosivity, low energy efficiency or high cost. However, several non-vapour-compression heat pump technologies have been invented and could be promising alternatives to conventional systems, with potential for higher COP and without the aforementioned refrigerant drawbacks. Among those, the systems based on the so-called “caloric effects” of solid-state refrigerants are gaining large attention. These caloric effects are characterized by a phase transition varying entropy in the material, resulting in a large adiabatic temperature change. This phase transition is induced by a variation of a specific external field applied to the solid refrigerant. Therefore, the magnetocaloric, elastocaloric, electrocaloric and barocaloric effects are adiabatic temperature changes in specific materials when varying the magnetic field, uniaxial mechanical stress, electrical field or hydrostatic pressure, respectively. Heat pump cycle can be built from these caloric effects and several heating/cooling prototypes were developed and tested over the last few decades. Although not a mature technology yet, some of these caloric systems are well suited to become new efficient and sustainable solutions for indoor space conditioning and domestic hot water production. This technical report (and the paper to which this report is supplementary materials) aims to raise awareness in the building community about these innovative caloric systems. It sheds some light on the recent progress in that field and compares the performance of caloric systems with that of conventional vapour-compression heat pumps for building applications.

Screw piles need to be upscaled for offshore use e.g. being an alternative foundation and anchor form for offshore floating wind turbines, although the high demand of vertical installation forces could prevent its application if conventional pitch-matched installation is used. Recent studies, using numerical and centrifuge physical tests, indicated that the vertical installation force can be reduced by adopting over-flighting which also improved axial uplift capacity of the screw pile. The current study extends the scope to axial cyclic performance with respect to the installation approach. Using quasi-static discrete element method (DEM) simulation it was found that the over-flighted screw pile showed a lower displacement accumulation rate, compared to a pitch-matched installed pile, in terms of load-controlled cyclic tests. Sensitivity analysis of the setup of the cyclic loading servo shows the maximum velocity during the tests should be limited to avoid significant exaggeration of the pile displacement accumulation but this may lead to very high run durations.

Under the current IDBG Corporate Results Framework (CRF) 2020-2023 (https://crf.iadb.org/en), the IDB committed to reach 30% of the total amount approved (including all lending operations) of climate finance during this period. In 2020, the IDB Group - composed of the IDB, IDB Lab (formerly the Multilateral Investment Fund) and IDB Invest - approved US$3.9 billion in climate finance as per the MDB climate finance tracking methodology. This resource is aimed at development activities carried out by the public and private sectors that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus mitigate climate change, and/or that reduce vulnerability to climate change and contribute to an adaptation process. This amount represented 19.5% of the IDB Groups total approved amount for 2020. The IDB only climate finance in 2020 was 15%, equivalent to US$ 2 billion. If the COVID-19 related investments are excluded, the IDB climate finance reached 30%. Changes in demand from countries to respond to the pandemic affected the overall climate finance results by shifting the priority to social and fiscal sectors and to projects that could provide faster liquidity.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.

Macroeconomic summary The Colombian economy sustained numerous shocks in the second quarter, pri¬marily related to costs and supply. The majority of these shocks were unantic¬ipated or proved more persistent than expected, interrupting the recovery in economic activity observed at the beginning of the year and pushing overall inflation above the target. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) increased but remained low, in line with the technical staff’s expectations. A third wave of the pandemic, which became more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak, began in early April. This had both a high cost in terms of human life and a negative impact on Colombia's economic recovery. Between May and mid-June roadblocks and other disruptions to public order had a sig¬nificant negative effect on economic activity and inflation. The combination and magnitude of these two shocks likely led to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the first quarter. Roadblocks also led to a significant in¬crease in food prices. The accumulated effects of global disruptions to certain value chains and increased international freight transportation prices, which since the end of 2020 have restricted supply and increased costs, also affected Colombia’s economy. The factors described above, which primarily affected the consumer price index (CPI) for goods and foods, explain to a significant degree the technical staff’s forecast errors and the increase in overall inflation above the 3% target. By contrast, increases in core inflation and in prices for regulated items were in line with the technical staff’s expectations, and can be explained largely by the elimination of various price relief measures put in place last year. An increase in perceived sovereign risk and the upward pressures that this im¬plies on international financing costs and the exchange rate were further con¬siderations. Despite significant negative shocks, economic growth in the first half of the year (9.1%) is now expected to be significantly higher than projected in the April re¬port (7.1%), a sign of a more dynamic economy that could recover more quickly than previously forecast. Diverse economic activity figures have indicated high¬er-than-expected growth since the end of 2020. This suggests that the negative effects on output from recurring waves of COVID-19 have grown weaker and less long-lasting with subsequent outbreaks. Nevertheless, the third wave of the coro¬navirus, and to an even greater degree the previously mentioned roadblocks and disruptions to public order, likely led to a decline in GDP in the second quar¬ter compared to the first. Despite this, data from the monthly economic tracking indicator (ISE) for April and May surpassed expectations, and new sector-level measures of economic activity suggest that the negative impact of the pandemic on output continues to moderate, amid reduced restrictions on mobility and im¬provements in the pace of vaccination programs. Freight transportation registers (June) and unregulated energy demand (July), among other indicators, suggest a significant recovery following the roadblocks in May. Given the above, annual GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to have been around 17.3% (previously 15.8%), explained in large part by a low basis of comparison. The technical staff revised its growth projection for 2021 upward from 6% to 7.5%. This forecast, which comes with an unusually high degree of uncertain¬ty, assumes no additional disruptions to public order and that any new waves of COVID-19 will not have significant additional negative effects on economic activity. Recovery in international demand, price levels for some of Colombia’s export com¬modities, and remittances from workers abroad have all performed better than projected in the previous report. This dynamic is expected to continue to drive recovery in the national income over the rest of the year. Continued ample international liquidity, an acceleration in vacci¬nation programs, and low interest rates can also be ex¬pected to favor economic activity. Improved performance in the second quarter, which led to an upward growth revision for all components of spending, is expected to continue, with the economy returning to 2019 production levels at the end of 2021, earlier than estimated in the April report. This forecast continues to account for the short-term effects on aggregate demand of a tax reform package along the lines of what is currently being pro-posed by the national government. Given the above, the central forecast scenario in this report projects growth in 2021 of 7.5% and in 2022 of 3.1% (Graph 1.1). In this scenar¬io, economic activity would nonetheless remain below potential. The noted improvement in these projections comes with a high degree of uncertainty. Annual inflation increased more than expected in June (3.63%) as a result of changes in food prices, while growth in core inflation (1.87%) was similar to projections.