Journal articles: 'Currency crises – Models'

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Alaminos, David, Fernando Aguilar-Vijande, and José Ramón Sánchez-Serrano. "Neural Networks for Estimating Speculative Attacks Models." Entropy 23, no. 1 (January 13, 2021): 106. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23010106.

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Currency crises have been analyzed and modeled over the last few decades. These currency crises develop mainly due to a balance of payments crisis, and in many cases, these crises lead to speculative attacks against the price of the currency. Despite the popularity of these models, they are currently shown as models with low estimation precision. In the present study, estimates are made with first- and second-generation speculative attack models using neural network methods. The results conclude that the Quantum-Inspired Neural Network and Deep Neural Decision Trees methodologies are shown to be the most accurate, with results around 90% accuracy. These results exceed the estimates made with Ordinary Least Squares, the usual estimation method for speculative attack models. In addition, the time required for the estimation is less for neural network methods than for Ordinary Least Squares. These results can be of great importance for public and financial institutions when anticipating speculative pressures on currencies that are in price crisis in the markets.

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Rangvid, Jesper. "Second Generation Models of Currency Crises." Journal of Economic Surveys 15, no. 5 (December 2001): 613–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00151.

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Chong, Terence T. L., and Isabel K. Yan. "Forecasting currency crises with threshold models." International Economics 156 (December 2018): 156–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2018.02.001.

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CAKMAK, Umut. "An Evaluation of the Currency Crises Models." Ekonomik Yaklasim 18, no. 62 (2007): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5455/ey.10624.

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Alaminos, David, José Ignacio Peláez, M. Belén Salas, and Manuel A. Fernández-Gámez. "Sovereign Debt and Currency Crises Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Techniques." Symmetry 13, no. 4 (April 12, 2021): 652. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym13040652.

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Sovereign debt and currencies play an increasingly influential role in the development of any country, given the need to obtain financing and establish international relations. A recurring theme in the literature on financial crises has been the prediction of sovereign debt and currency crises due to their extreme importance in international economic activity. Nevertheless, the limitations of the existing models are related to accuracy and the literature calls for more investigation on the subject and lacks geographic diversity in the samples used. This article presents new models for the prediction of sovereign debt and currency crises, using various computational techniques, which increase their precision. Also, these models present experiences with a wide global sample of the main geographical world zones, such as Africa and the Middle East, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and globally. Our models demonstrate the superiority of computational techniques concerning statistics in terms of the level of precision, which are the best methods for the sovereign debt crisis: fuzzy decision trees, AdaBoost, extreme gradient boosting, and deep learning neural decision trees, and for forecasting the currency crisis: deep learning neural decision trees, extreme gradient boosting, random forests, and deep belief network. Our research has a large and potentially significant impact on the macroeconomic policy adequacy of the countries against the risks arising from financial crises and provides instruments that make it possible to improve the balance in the finance of the countries.

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Obstfeld, Maurice. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features." European Economic Review 40, no. 3-5 (April 1996): 1037–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00111-5.

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Abdushukurov, Nurilla. "The impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment: The analysis of emerging and developing economies." Russian Journal of Economics 5, no. 3 (October 21, 2019): 220–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38073.

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In this paper, the discussion centers on the possible effects of currency crises on different economic indicators, with special attention to economic growth and foreign direct investment. There is insufficient research on this topic to draw any firm conclusions about the associations between currency crises and aforementioned variables. In fact, it appears that the impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment is negative respectively. However, this study indicates that foreign direct investment can be positively correlated with currency crises as contrary to the common belief. The current study analyzes these relationships through dynamic panel models. The annual panel data for 71 emerging and developing countries are extracted from reliable databases for the time period of 2005–2014. Generalized method of moments estimators are used to obtain efficient and consistent results so as to reach necessary conclusions. The majority of estimated coefficients are significant and unbiased statistically, and also consistent with the economic theories proposed. The main results indicate that the presence of a currency crisis in a particular economy has a negative impact on economic growth, while its effect on foreign investment inflows is most likely positive. Robustness tests demonstrate that used models in the study are both economically and econometrically robust and valid.

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Nagar, Venky, and Gwen Yu. "Accounting for Crises." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6, no. 3 (July 1, 2014): 184–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.3.184.

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We provide among the first empirical evidence, consistent with recent macro global game crisis models, that shows that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises. In these models, self-fulfilling crises independent of fundamentals can occur only when publicly disclosed signals of fundamentals have high precision; poor fundamentals are the sole driver of crises only in low precision settings. We exploit a key publicly disclosed signal of fundamentals, namely accounting data, for 68 currency and systemic banking crises in 17 countries. We find that precrisis accounting signals of fundamentals are significantly lower only in low-precision countries. (JEL D82, E44, G01, G14, G21 L25, M40)

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Chionis, D., and P. Liargovas. "Currency crises in transition economies: An empirical analysis." Acta Oeconomica 53, no. 2 (June 2003): 175–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.53.2003.2.3.

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This paper examines the causes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets by looking closely at the experience of four transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Ukraine). It considers the influence of macroeconomic variables in currency crises occurrence through the use of logit models. In an environment of deteriorating fundamentals the examined issue is whether or not some fundamentals are able to maximise the likelihood of currency crisis incidence.

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Sbracia, Massimo, and Andrea Zaghini. "Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models." Economic Modelling 18, no. 2 (April 2001): 203–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0264-9993(00)00034-1.

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Amri, Puspa D., and Thomas D. Willett. "Policy Inconsistencies and the Political Economy of Currency Crises." Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 08, no. 01 (February 2017): 1750004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793993317500041.

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Formal models of currency crises have shown that inconsistencies between countries' domestic and exchange rate policies are a major cause of currency crises. To understand why such prolonged inconsistencies exist, we need to go beyond standard economic models and take political economy and behavioral considerations into account. We sketch out ways in which such considerations can be taken into account and highlight recent research that is useful for this project. We also offer some directions for future research and a brief guide to the empirical identification of currency crises and to the measurements of some of the relevant political and economic policy variables.

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Mohana Rao, Balaga, and Puja Padhi. "Identifying the Early Warnings of Currency Crisis in India." Foreign Trade Review 54, no. 4 (November 2019): 269–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0015732519874206.

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We empirically investigate the recent history of currency crises (stress periods) and the factors influencing their likelihood in India. This study aims at constructing an early warning system (EWS) to forecast the possibility of an imminent crisis in the crisis window of 12 months by employing signal extraction methodology and logistic regression model for the period 1986–2015. Among the 22 identified crisis months (stress periods), only early episodes (1990–1991) were followed by a devaluation and not the later periods (post 1991). Both signal extraction methodology and logistic regression model indicate no relative importance to the three generations of currency crises models. Nevertheless, the results advocate that logistic regression model fares better than signal extraction technique. The results also suggest that building an EWS can be an effective diagnostic technique. JEL Codes: F31, F47, G01

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Bordo, Michael, David Hargreaves, and Mizuho Kida. "Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience." Financial History Review 18, no. 3 (October 24, 2011): 331–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0968565011000199.

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We identify the timing of currency, banking crises and sudden stops in New Zealand from 1880 to 2008 using methodologies from the international literature and consider the extent to which the empirical models in that literature can explain New Zealand's crisis history. We find that the cross-country evidence on the determinants of crises fits New Zealand experience reasonably well. A number of the risk factors that correlate with crises internationally – such as domestic imbalances, external debt, and currency mismatches – were elevated for New Zealand when the country had more frequent crises and have improved in the recent (more stable) period. However, a time-series analysis of New Zealand growth over 120 years shows that global factors – such as the US growth rate and terms of trade – explain New Zealand growth fairly well, and that crisis-dummy variables do not have substantial additional explanatory power. This suggests that having sound institutions and policies may help avoid severe domestic crises, but will not be sufficient to avoid the domestic economic impact of the global business cycle.

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Alaminos, David, Rafael Becerra-Vicario, Manuel Á. Fernández-Gámez, and Ana J. Cisneros Ruiz. "Currency Crises Prediction Using Deep Neural Decision Trees." Applied Sciences 9, no. 23 (December 1, 2019): 5227. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app9235227.

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Currency crises are major events in the international monetary system. They affect the monetary policy of countries and are associated with risks of vulnerability for open economies. Much research has been carried out on the behavior of these events, and models have been developed to predict falls in the value of currencies. However, the limitations of existing models mean further research is required in this area, since the models are still of limited accuracy and have only been developed for emerging countries. This article presents an innovative global model for predicting currency crises. The analysis is geographically differentiated for regions, considering both emerging and developed countries and can accurately estimate future scenarios for currency crises at the global level. It uses a sample of 162 countries making it possible to account for the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. The method used was deep neural decision trees (DNDTs), a technique based on decision trees implemented by deep learning neural networks, which was compared with other methodologies widely applied in prediction. Our model has significant potential for the adaptation of macroeconomic policy to the risks derived from falls in the value of currencies, providing tools that help ensure financial stability at the global level.

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15

Ozkan, F. Gulcin. "Explaining ERM realignments: Insights from optimising models of currency crises." Journal of Macroeconomics 25, no. 4 (December 2003): 491–507. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2002.08.001.

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Kyin, Tey Sheik, and Lee Chin. "CURRENCY CRISES AND CONTAGION CHANNELS IN ASIAN ECONOMIES." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 25, no. 4 (January 20, 2023): 575–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i4.1777.

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This study examines multiple transmission mechanisms that propagate and amplify shocks across Asian nations owing to financial turbulence with emphasis on global shock transmission between economies that prioritise ‘trade’ and ‘financial’ connections in four countries: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Based on the logit estimation outcomes, a higher degree of trade openness amplifies the implications of shocks on the economy. Relevant implications are drawn for optimal regional monitoring and the coordination of integration as the economic fundamentals associated with the currency crises complements the first-generation models of speculative attacks.

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17

Pour, Jiří. "Application of Discrete Choice Models on Analysis of Causes of Currency Crises." Politická ekonomie 64, no. 4 (August 1, 2016): 420–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1079.

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18

Hellwig, Christian, Arijit Mukherji, and Aleh Tsyvinski. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates." American Economic Review 96, no. 5 (November 1, 2006): 1769–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.5.1769.

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We develop a model of currency crises, in which traders are heterogeneously informed, and interest rates are endogenously determined in a noisy rational expectations equilibrium. In our model, multiple equilibria result from distinct roles an interest rate plays in determining domestic asset market allocations and the devaluation outcome. Except for special cases, this finding is not affected by the introduction of noisy private signals. We conclude that the global games results on equilibrium uniqueness do not apply to market-based models of currency crises.

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Oygur, Tunc, and Gazanfer Unal. "Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return." Fluctuation and Noise Letters 16, no. 02 (May 25, 2017): 1750020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219477517500201.

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Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

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Suh, Jae-Hyun. "Measuring Signal of Currency Crises in Asia Using 4 Exchange Market Pressure Models." INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW 24, no. 1 (March 31, 2020): 121–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.21739/ibr.2020.03.24.1.121.

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Sutrisno, Hadi, Dyah Wulan Sari, and Rossanto Dwi Handoyo. "Vulnerability Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators for Early Detection of Currency Crisis: Case Study of Indonesian Economy on 1991–2019." Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 12, no. 02 (February 22, 2021): 2150006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s179399332150006x.

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The purpose of this study is to detect the currency crisis in Indonesia by exploring the vulnerability of macroeconomic variables. The Exchange Market Pressure Index was used to determine the crisis period by modeling the threshold value. Early indicators were determined using the signal analysis approach; therefore, the vulnerability level of each macroeconomic variable is known and used to determine the leading indicators. The result showed that the Signal Analysis and Herrera–Garcia approaches are the best detection models. Furthermore, it was concluded that the Signal Analysis approach was better in detecting crises compared to the Herrera–Garcia approach.

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22

Leblang, David, and William Bernhard. "The Politics of Speculative Attacks in Industrial Democracies." International Organization 54, no. 2 (2000): 291–324. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/002081800551181.

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Recent models of speculative currency crises contend that market expectations of policy behavior can trigger a speculative attack. We argue that political processes and partisan objectives inform expectations about the government's commitment to the exchange rate. First, market actors anticipate periods when the partisan identity of a government may change through an election or a cabinet collapse. Second, party labels provide information to currency traders about the policy objectives of a potential government. Consequently, we contend that the probability of a speculative attack will be higher when markets expect the cabinet to end and when the cabinet dissolution is likely to produce a leftward shift in policy. A discrete timesurvival model is used to estimate the probability that a cabinet will dissolve in any given month for sixteen parliamentary democracies from 1970 to 1995. The predicted values are then used as a proxy for market expectations in a model of speculative currency crises.

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23

Amri, I. F., N. Chamidah, and Sugiyanto. "Early detection models of currency crises in Indonesia based on inflation and interest rates indicators." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1563 (June 2020): 012018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1563/1/012018.

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Bas, Muhammet A. "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models." Conflict Management and Peace Science 29, no. 5 (November 2012): 490–520. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894212449088.

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Actor-level variations in the amounts of uncertainty have been widely ignored in the growing literature on statistical models of strategic interaction in international relations. In this article, I provide a tool for testing theories about the level of uncertainty in strategic interactions. I show that ignoring potential variations in levels of uncertainty across different cases can be a source of bias for empirical analyses. I propose a method to incorporate this form of heteroskedasticity into existing estimators and show that this method can improve inferences. With a series of Monte Carlo experiments, I evaluate the magnitude and the severity of the bias and inconsistency in estimators that ignore heteroskedasticity. More importantly, the tools developed in this article have many interesting substantive application areas. Examples considered include measuring speculators’ suboptimal behavior tendencies in international currency crises, and capturing varying levels of signaling and Bayesian updating behavior in the recent strategic models of signaling.

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Sherstnev, Mikhail A. "On macroeconomic instability in commodity economy in the context of external shocks: some questions of theory and Russian experience." Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Management, no. 9 (August 24, 2020): 178–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.46486/0234-4505-2020-9-178-191.

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The actual character of the research is based on the observation that the periods of financial instability during the last decade in Russia were determined by the specific features of the post-Soviet socio-economic model and their proper understanding is required for right choice of the instruments of anti-crisis policy. Such knowledge is becoming even more important under the oil shock and COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020. The purpose is to provide systemic analysis of the crisis processes in the Russian economy in 2014-2016 as the combination of several interdependent economic processes specific for the large-scale resource export oriented economy. It raises the issue of potential recovery mechanism for such type of economy and such type of the crisis and analyses theoretical and methodological foundations for choice of anti-crisis policy instruments. The research methodology includes reference to the comparative study of systemic financial crises in South East Asia in 1997-1999 and Russian Federation in 2014-2016 and derivation of specific predictions of the third generation currency crises models which are relevant for the case of the Russian Federation in 2014-2016. The result includes the conclusions on the specific features of the potential recovery mechanism in such type of the crisis and the choice of anti-crisis policy instruments on different time horizons. It also outlines the issues for further research and open questions for macroeconomic policy debates.

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Petrovic, Pavle, and Mirjana Gligoric. "Exchange rate and trade balance: J-curve effect." Panoeconomicus 57, no. 1 (2010): 23–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan1001023p.

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This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen's and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.

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Saayman, Andrea, and Melville Saayman. "Exchange rate volatility and tourism – revisiting the nature of the relationship." European Journal of Tourism Research 6, no. 2 (October 1, 2013): 104–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.54055/ejtr.v6i2.125.

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Tourism literature mainly argues that exchange rate volatility signals risk associated with a destination, which may cause tourists to refrain from visiting the destination and/or cancel their trips. This is especially true if the cause of volatility is seen as a result of political unrest or instability. However, not all volatility is due to country-specific factors and the volatility of the South African rand (ZAR) is an example of this phenomenon. Because of the floating nature of the currency, sharp depreciations in the value of the ZAR have been felt during crises times. Since the ZAR volatility is not always associated with adverse political conditions, it is postulated that volatility may influence spending in South Africa, and not only arrivals. This paper therefore investigates the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international tourism to South Africa. Volatility is modelled using GARCH models, while the influence thereof on tourism is modelled using an autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL) and a bounds test approach. Results support the notion that spending is more consistently influenced by volatility than arrivals.

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Bauer, Christian. "Uniqueness in currency crisis models." International Advances in Economic Research 9, no. 2 (May 2003): 167. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02295718.

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Moiseev, S., and I. Kurilets. "Econometric Models of the Currency Crisis." World Economy and International Relations, no. 4 (2000): 20–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2000-4-20-26.

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30

Danner, Leno Francisco. "Crise econômica hodierna como crise do poder: Algumas considerações/Current economic crisis as power crisis: some considerations." Pensando - Revista de Filosofia 3, no. 6 (February 13, 2013): 93. http://dx.doi.org/10.26694/pensando.v3i6.930.

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Defendo, neste artigo, que a atual crise econômica não pode ser entendida nem apreendida consistentemente apenas a partir de sua redução a um déficit interno à estrutura produtivo-financeira, em termos de queda nos padrões de acumulação; na verdade, essa crise é originada de uma crise do poder diretivo em termos de sociedade, que acirra a separação entre as esferas econômica, política e social, a partir da defesa de uma autorreferencialidade do âmbito econômico em relação aos demais, que, por causa disso, são enquadrados pelos imperativos econômicos, tendo solapada sua especificidade normativa (no caso do social) e diretiva da evolução da sociedade (no caso do político). Essa crise econômica, assim, agudizou os problemas oriundos da modernização liberal, que efetivamente foi marcada por essa blindagem das esferas econômica, política e social umas em relação às outras. Como consequência, a superação da modernidade liberal, modernidade essa retomada pelo neoliberalismo, somente pode ser feita no momento em que se reafirma o social enquanto horizonte normativo, o político enquanto instância diretiva da evolução social e o econômico enquanto esfera de controle público-estatal e de gestão democrática da produção e da distribuição da riqueza, que o modelo do Estado de bem-estar social representou e representa de maneira exemplar, em termos de ligação e de complementaridade entre tais esferas.Abstract: the paper argues that current economic crisis cannot be understood or conceived consistently just since its reduction to an internal deficit into productive-financial structure, as a drop in the standards of accumulation; indeed, this crisis is originated from a crisis in the directive power of society, that intensifies the separation between economic, political and social spheres, since the defense of a self-referentiality of economic scope related with others (social and political), which, because that, are framed by economic imperatives, having undermined the normativity (social sphere) and the evolutionary direction of society (political sphere). So, economic crisis exacerbated the problems legated by liberal modernity, that was characterized by the shielding of economic, political and social spheres to each other. Consequently, overcoming of liberal modernity, that was resumption by Neoliberalism, only can be done when we reiterate the social as horizon of normativity, the political as directive instance of social evolution, and the economical as a sphere of public and state-owned control and democratic management of production and distribution of the wealth, that the model of Welfare State represented and represents exemplarily with its complementarity of those spheres. Keywords: Economic Crisis; Power Crisis; Welfare State; Liberal Modernity.

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LEONOV, Dmytro. "IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION OF PRIVATE PENSION FUNDS DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE." WORLD OF FINANCE, no. 3(60) (2019): 165–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/sf2019.03.165.

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Introduction. The development of an effective pension system is one of the cornerstones of forming a socio-economic model of state development for any country. The mechanisms of formation and use of financial resources of the pension system affect all aspects of the functioning of such model. Assignment of tasks of the organization of future provision of pensions only on some one of the parties of this process (state, employer, individual) is historically demonstrated the vulnerability of such “single-level” models. Accordingly, most countries in the world are developing multi-level models of national pension systems to create various organizational forms of retirement provision, to attract as many participants as possible, and to provide the financial resources needed to secure future retirees. The introduction of a multi-level pension system in Ukraine is still continues. Therefore, the study of problems of state regulation of the functioning of new forms of pension provision for the national pension system and the prospects for their development remains relevant. Purpose of the research is to investigate the problematic aspects of the activity of non-state pension funds as a component of the multi-level pension system of Ukraine and determine the prospects for their development, taking into account the influence of the state. Results. The place of the non-state pension funds in the multilevel pension system of Ukraine is defined. Influence and interdependence of activity of NSPF and other elements of an accumulative component of the national pension system is reasonable. Negative aspects of influence of the state on functioning of non-state level of the pension system in general and NSPF in particular and also consequences for development of activity of NSPF slowing down of development by public authorities of the accumulative making pension system of Ukraine are revealed. Conclusions and recommendations on stimulation of structural reform of the national pension system and development of activity in it the non-state pension funds are formulated. Conclusions. During of pension reform in Ukraine the state focuses attention on reforming of a solidary component of the pension system which covers a considerable part of electorate (pensioners) and slows down introduction of mandatory funded pension system as it will not have fast influence on the electorate presented by the working citizens. Development of nonstate level of the pension system in the context of social and economic development by the government is practically not considered and restrains by subjective factors: a voluntary nature, low level of awareness and trust of citizens and the enterprises concerning activity of the nonstate pension funds and also purposeful (or spontaneous) actions / inaction of public authorities which complicate operating conditions of institutions of non-state pension provision. Objective factors that hamper the development of non-state pension provision are the problems of the national economy, caused by the global and national economic crises (high level of shadowing of the economy and wages, outstripping growth of the share of current consumption in monetary incomes of the population, inflation and currency devaluation, reduce the possibility of the diversification of domestic investments and insufficient accumulated pension assets in foreign currency equivalent for effective foreign investment, etc.). Necessary condition of effective influence of state regulation on development of the national pension system is observance of the legislation by public authorities and appropriate performance of the tasks assigned to these bodies, prevention of emergence of legal collisions between rules of various acts of the legislation, full economic grounding of regulatory measures. The leverage of the development of non-state pension funds may be the introduction of a mandatory accumulation level of the pension system with the involvement of non-state pension funds in the maintenance of mandatory retirement savings. It can stimulate additional voluntary pension savings, a legalization of wages of the working citizens, increase in sources of provision of pensions of the citizens and increase in level replacement of labor income in an old age and also formation of a powerful source of investment resources for financing of national economic development.

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Skalska, A. "What components should an ethics and compliance program consist of to help organizations remain ethical and compliant in times of crisis and beyond?" Entrepreneur’s Guide 13, no. 4 (November 23, 2020): 229–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.24182/2073-9885-2020-13-4-229-246.

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Organizations currently face many challenges due to the COVID–19 pandemic. In similar times of crisis, it is of the utmost importance for organizations to remain ethical and compliant with the law as well as with the temporary measures imposed on them by States. Ethics and compliance programs help organizations behave ethically and in compliance with all rules in a structured and comprehensive way. The paper analyzes selected models of an ethics and/or compliance program with the aim to find out what components an ethics and compliance program should contain in order to be effective in ensuring ethical and compliant behavior of an organization at all times including unexpected crises.

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Martín-García, Margarita, Cecilia Téllez-Valle, and José Luis Martín-Marín. "Evolution of Sovereign Rating Models in the Current Crisis." Journal of Globalization, Competitiveness, and Governability 8, no. 1 (September 24, 2014): 16–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.3232/gcg.2014.v8.n1.01.

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Klodane, Alona. "THE ROLE AND IMPORTANCE OF COMPANY CRISIS DIAGNOSIS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT." Latgale National Economy Research 1, no. 8 (October 24, 2016): 43. http://dx.doi.org/10.17770/lner2016vol1.8.2158.

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Nowadays, under a free market, crises at companies are a frequent phenomenon; however, anti-crisis management and related aspects are currently a little researched problem in Latvia. The research aim is to examine the nature of company crisis diagnosis and its role and importance in the anti-crisis management system. The research general tasks are: to describe the nature of company crisis diagnosis and review the scope, purpose and tasks of performing a diagnosis; to examine the role and importance of company crisis diagnoses in the company’s anti-crisis management system. To achieve the aim, the following research methods were employed: monographic, descriptive, comparison as well as analysis. The present research performed an analysis of the definitions of company crisis diagnosis, an examination of the scope of purposes and tasks of performing a diagnosis; it defined the crisis diagnosis as the systematic application of several different (usually financial) models aimed at assessing the situation of the company, as well as the discovery of indications of a potential crisis. Also, the role and importance of diagnosis of a crisis at a company in its anti-crisis management were determined stressing the fact that crisis diagnostic is a source of high-quality and credible information about the real situation and the availability of resources as well as the basis for carrying out further anti-crisis activities and making decisions both during the process of crisis prevention and within the overall company management system.

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De Clercq†, M., and V. Dubois. "Crisis Intervention Models in the French-Speaking Countries." Crisis 22, no. 1 (January 2001): 32–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027//0227-5910.22.1.32.

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The article presents the crisis intervention model devised by Andreoli (Geneva) which is currently being developed in most crisis units and emergency services in the French-speaking countries of Europe. Two clinical examples are presented: the Short Therapy Centre (Geneva, Switzerland) and the crisis unit of the Saint-Luc Clinic (Brussels, Belgium). The following aspects of these approaches are discussed: (a) the need for crisis intervention rather than a simple answer to emergency, (b) the need for crisis intervention in all acute psychiatric disorders and not only in psychosocial problems, (c) the need to integrate psychiatric hospitalization into a coherent mental health policy, (d) the need for well-trained and round-the-clock teams, (e) the need for continuity of care.

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Santamaria, Daniel. "EVALUATING THE PREDICTIVENESS AND PROFITABILITY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTING MODELS." Journal of Prediction Markets 6, no. 1 (December 19, 2012): 56–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v6i1.497.

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This paper evaluates the performance of two competing currency models as a forecasting and trading tool in fund management. A dynamic vector error correction model is utilized to construct a currency forecasting and fair value forecasting model for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. Emphasis is placed on robustness testing model performance by changing its specification and how both models perform across different time periods. Based on the accuracy of the forecasts the fair value model outperforms the currency forecasting model; a finding that is not supported using directional forecasts. This is robust to changes in model specification and across different time spans that cover pre-and current financial crisis periods. It is also discovered that the evaluation criteria used and prevailing market conditions determines whether model performance translates into value added in a currency fund.

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BAUER, CHRISTIAN. "SOLUTION UNIQUENESS IN A CLASS OF CURRENCY CRISIS GAMES." International Game Theory Review 07, no. 04 (December 2005): 531–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219198905000697.

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A common feature of many speculative attack models on currencies is the existence of multiple equilibrium solutions. When choosing the equilibrium strategy, a trader faces Knightian uncertainty about the rational choice of the other traders. We show that the concept of Choquet expected utility maximization under Knightian uncertainty leads to unique equilibria. In games of incomplete information the optimal strategy maximizes the expected utility with respect to a two-dimensional information: environment and rationality. We define a new concept of equilibria, the Choquet-expected-Nash-equilibria, which allows the analysis of decisions under uncertainty, which result in multiple equilibria in standard analysis. We provide uniqueness theorems for a wide class of incomplete information games including global games and apply them to fairly general currency attack models. The uniqueness of the equilibrium remains valid for arbitrary noise distributions, positively correlated signals, the existence of large traders, individual payoff functions, and for the case that non attacking traders suffer a loss in case of a successful attack, as is the case for investors in the attacked country.

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Ostrihoň, Filip. "Evaluating banking crisis predictions in EU and V4 countries ." Trendy v podnikání 10, no. 2 (2020): 64–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.24132/jbt.2020.10.2.64_72.

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Relying on a recently published database of financial crises, this paper assesses an early warning model for predicting banking sector distress. The exercise employs discrete choice models and a signaling approach to evaluate the performance of an existing model based on credit-to-GDP change and real house price growth in regard to predominantly post-crisis data for EU and Visegrad Group countries. As such, unbalanced panel data for 27 EU countries, spanning with annual frequency at longest the period of 2003-2017, as well as unbalanced panel data for 4 Visegrad Group countries covering at most the period 2008Q1-2017Q4 with quarterly frequency were analyzed. The results are generally in line with other empirical research featuring the same model and indicate that the model retains most of its predictive capabilities even when currently available data are used. However, the analysis identifies that the indicator of real house price growth may not be as useful of a predictor of banking crises in more recent periods for EU countries, as it might have been before the 2008 financial and economic crisis. Consequently, a simpler univariate early warning indicator approach might be sufficient for banking sector risk monitoring and management in EU and Visegrad Group countries in regard to identifying periods of distress similar to those in 2008.

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Ostrihoň, Filip. "Evaluating banking crisis predictions in EU and V4 countries ." Trendy v podnikání 10, no. 2 (2020): 64–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.24132/jbt.2020.10.2.64_72.

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Relying on a recently published database of financial crises, this paper assesses an early warning model for predicting banking sector distress. The exercise employs discrete choice models and a signaling approach to evaluate the performance of an existing model based on credit-to-GDP change and real house price growth in regard to predominantly post-crisis data for EU and Visegrad Group countries. As such, unbalanced panel data for 27 EU countries, spanning with annual frequency at longest the period of 2003-2017, as well as unbalanced panel data for 4 Visegrad Group countries covering at most the period 2008Q1-2017Q4 with quarterly frequency were analyzed. The results are generally in line with other empirical research featuring the same model and indicate that the model retains most of its predictive capabilities even when currently available data are used. However, the analysis identifies that the indicator of real house price growth may not be as useful of a predictor of banking crises in more recent periods for EU countries, as it might have been before the 2008 financial and economic crisis. Consequently, a simpler univariate early warning indicator approach might be sufficient for banking sector risk monitoring and management in EU and Visegrad Group countries in regard to identifying periods of distress similar to those in 2008.

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Zarubina, Yuliya. "APPROACHES TO OPTIMIZING BUSINESS MODELS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CURRENT CRISIS." Scientific Papers Collection of the Angarsk State Technical University 2020, no. 1 (June 23, 2020): 326–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.36629/2686-7788-2020-1-326-329.

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The article is devoted to the development of approaches to optimizing business models that are relevant for use in the context of the current crisis we are experiencing related to the pandemic. The directions of possible transformationthe company's value chains in a crisis are considered.

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Sparkenbaugh, Erica M., Chunsheng Chen, Tomasz Brzoska, Julia Nguyen, Shaobin Wang, Gregory M. Vercellotti, Nigel S. Key, Prithu Sundd, John D. Belcher, and Rafal Pawlinski. "Thrombin activation of PAR-1 contributes to microvascular stasis in mouse models of sickle cell disease." Blood 135, no. 20 (May 14, 2020): 1783–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.2019003543.

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Abstract Vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC) is the primary cause of morbidity and hospitalization in sickle cell disease (SCD); however, only 4 therapies (hydroxyurea, l-glutamine, crizanlizumab, and voxeletor) are currently approved in SCD. These agents limit the duration, severity, and frequency of crises. Activation of coagulation is a hallmark of SCD. Studies in animal models of SCD have shown that coagulation contributes to the chronic inflammation and end-organ damage associated with the disease; however, it is unknown whether coagulation directly contributes to the microvascular stasis that causes VOC. Herein, we demonstrate that inhibition of tissue factor (TF) and the downstream coagulation proteases factor Xa and thrombin significantly attenuates heme-induced microvascular stasis in mouse models of VOC. Pharmacologic inhibition of the principal thrombin receptor, protease activated receptor-1 (PAR-1), as well as deficiency of PAR-1 in all nonhematopoietic cells, also reduces stasis in sickle mice. PAR-1 deficiency was associated with reduced endothelial von Willebrand factor expression, which has been shown to mediate microvascular stasis. In addition, TF inhibition reduces lung vaso-occlusion in sickle mice mediated by arteriolar neutrophil-platelet microemboli. In sum, these results suggest that prophylactic anticoagulation might attenuate the incidence of VOC.

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Kozarev, Atanas. "MANAGING WITH CLASSIFIED INFORMATION IN CRISES AND CURRENT MODELS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA." FBIM Transactions 2, no. 2 (July 15, 2014): 204–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.12709/fbim.02.02.02.20.

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Puaschunder, Julia. "Global responsible intergenerational leadership." Annals in Social Responsibility 2, no. 1 (May 3, 2016): 113–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/asr-10-2015-0016.

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Purpose Global systemic risks of climate change, overindebtedness in the aftermath of the 2008/2009 World Financial Crisis and the need for pension reform in the wake of an aging western world population, currently raise attention for intergenerational fairness. Pressing social dilemmas beyond the control of singular nation states call for corporate social activities to back governmental regulation in crisis mitigation. The purpose of this paper is to promote the idea of intergenerational equity in the corporate world. Design/methodology/approach Theoretical description. Findings In the given literature on global responsible leadership in the corporate sector and contemporary corporate social responsibility (CSR) models, intergenerational equity appears to have been neglected. While the notion of sustainability has been integrated in CSR models, intergenerational equity has hardly been touched on as for being a more legal case for codifying the triple bottom line. Practical implications Advocating for integrating intergenerational equity concerns in CSR models in academia and practice holds untapped advantages of economically influential corporate entities, corporate adaptability and independence from voting cycles. Social implications Integrating a temporal dimension in contemporary CSR helps imbuing a longer-term perspective into the corporate world alongside advancing tax ethics and global governance crises prevention. Originality/value Future research avenues comprise of investigating situational factors influencing intergenerational leadership in the international arena in order to advance the idea of corporations tackling the most pressing contemporary challenges of mankind.

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D’Antoni, Massimo. "From Monetary to Fiscal to Political Union: A Progression to Integration or a Recipe for Failure?" Journal of International Economic Law 23, no. 2 (June 2020): 469–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jiel/jgaa009.

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Abstract In this paper, we discuss the limits of the architecture of the euro from an economic point of view. We first highlight how the choice to create a monetary union was not supported by the accepted theory of optimal currency areas, and how its institutional set-up responded to a special and questionable view of the functioning of the economy, which recognized only a limited role to active macroeconomic policies. We continue by reconstructing the reasons for the emergence of the 2010–2011 debt crisis that can be traced back to the dynamics triggered by the single currency itself, and we highlight the role played by structural differences between various models of capitalism. Finally, we argue that the proposals currently on the table are by no means sufficient to correct the flaws in the European monetary architecture. The prospects are therefore pessimistic about the possibility of monetary union evolving towards a fiscal and political union.

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Riyanto, Feri Dwi, Bunga Bunga Hidayati, and Aji Purba Trapsila. "Optimum Currency Area in Asean 5 Countries: Is it Appropriate to Use American Dollar As the Standar Currency?" Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan 13, no. 1 (May 3, 2021): 87. http://dx.doi.org/10.17977/um002v13i22021p087.

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Many times ASEAN countries experienced economic crisis in 1997/1998 and financial crisis in 2008. The similar patterns of cisis among those countries make some researchers conduct research of single currency unification. This research has a purpose to analyze the impact of ASEAN 5’s currencies (Rupiah, Ringgit, Singapore Dollar, Baht, and Peso) to a currency shock in the other ASEAN countries. The concept of this study uses the exchange rate approach pegged of ASEAN countries with American Dollars and Singapore Dollars. Furthermore, this research analyzes a symmetrical currency response to the currency shock in the other countries. The method of the study comes closer short-term and long-term models of Vector Auto regression (VAR) by using monthly data in real exchange rate variables from 1990 to 2019. The result of impulse response function (IRF) shows that responses to ASEAN currency pegged the currency to Singapore Dollars rather than US Dollars

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Gorbulin, Vladimir. "The Current Crisis and the Search for New Models of World Order." Problems of Economic Transition 53, no. 2 (June 1, 2010): 77–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/pet1061-1991530205.

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Stępkowski, Dariusz. "Kłączowanie czy Bildung? Dydaktyka akademicka na rozdrożu." Kwartalnik Pedagogiczny, no. 65/3 (February 17, 2021): 7–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.31338/2657-6007.kp.2020-3.1.

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Academic science education is currently in crisis, which primarily involves the transmission of thinking skills as a priority task of the university. The author sketches a picture of this crisis by contrasting two theoretical models of teaching and learning at the university which are essentially identified with the terms “rhizoming” and Bildung. The presented ways of using the models in academic practice are used to consider the possibilities of overcoming the crisis and determining the conditions.

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CHANG, BISHARAT HUSSAIN, SURESH KUMAR OAD RAJPUT, and NIAZ HUSSAIN GHUMRO. "ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON THE TRADE BALANCE: DOES GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS MATTER?" Annals of Financial Economics 13, no. 04 (December 2018): 1850015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s201049521850015x.

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Recent studies have been mainly focusing on whether exchange rate changes have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on the trade balance. We revisit this question in the context of US and further extend previous studies by determining whether the relationship between these underlying variables change as a result of the global financial crisis. We use both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL models for the whole sample period as well as in the pre- and post-crisis periods. Findings suggest that exchange rate changes have an asymmetric effect on the trade balance; however, the asymmetric behavior of the underlying variables change as a result of the financial crisis. In the short run, exchange rate asymmetrically affects trade balance in the post-crisis period only. In the long run, there is an asymmetric effect for all sample periods, where only the devaluation of currency significantly affects the trade balance when the whole sample period is selected. On the other hand, in pre- and post-crisis periods, only appreciation of currency significantly affects the trade balance. This study indicates that determining the asymmetric relationship without considering the global financial crisis may lead to spurious results.

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Tsui-Auch, Lai Si, and Yong-Joo Lee. "The State Matters: Management Models of Singaporean Chinese and Korean Business Groups." Organization Studies 24, no. 4 (May 2003): 507–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0170840603024004001.

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Both the proponents and critics of Asian economic organization have been preoccupied with the ideal-typical management models of family businesses, and have rarely identified their changing management structures. We, instead, identify the change and continuity in these management structures through an analysis of family-controlled business groups in Singapore and South Korea before and after the Asian currency crisis. In our view, these business groups professionalized their management, but retained family control and corporate rule before the crisis. The crisis, however, increased the pressure on such groups to relinquish family control and corporate rule. Singaporean Chinese business groups tended to loosen their tight grip on corporate rule by absorbing more professional managers into their upper echelons. The surviving Korean chaebol, however, intensified family control. Only a few chaebol, which were on the brink of bankruptcy, relinquished corporate rule to professional managers. We argue that other than the market, cultural, and institutional factors as suggested in the existing literature, state capacities and strategies do matter in shaping the changing management structures of business groups. Drawing on our analysis, researchers will be able to conduct comparative studies of family businesses across East Asian societies, of organizational imitation, and of the role of the state in influencing management models.

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Vivchar, Oksana. "SPECIFIC FEATURES OF ECONOMIC SECURITY ASSESSMENT OF ENTERPRISES UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS OF BUSINESS MACROTRENDS: A REGIONAL APPROACH." Regional’ni aspekti rozvitku produktivnih sil Ukraїni, no. 24 (2019): 15–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/rarrpsu2019.24.015.

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Goal. The goal of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and applied aspects of economic security complex assessment on the example of regional business structures with the use of the apparatus of mathematical modeling in Economics in modern conditions of business macro trends. The assessment of the state of economic security of enterprises is carried out through a system of criteria and indicators. The criterion of enterprises economic security is a measure of the state of the entity in terms of compliance with the established indicators of its activity with pre-established indicators reflecting the essence of economic security. On the basis of this goal, the question arises of solving such problems as: the possibility of developing a unified conceptual approach and tools for assessing the impact of indicators on the of regional business structures’s economic security; developing measures to improve the economic component of regional business structures. Research methods. Structural methods, comparative analysis of empirical data, abstract-logical generalization and mathematical modeling in Economics were applied to solve this scientific problem. Results. In the work on the basis of the methodological approach the model of assessment formation of the enterprise’s economic security has been grounded on the basis of impact of economic security indicators by means of logit and probit-functions. The model does not take into account group effects, that is, there is no analysis of fixed effects. In order to avoid cross-effects, when not only the variable itself influences the likelihood of a crisis, but the public crisis begins to affect the behavior of the variable, two groups of models are built: for the first group of regressions from the sample, all observations after the first year of crises are excluded; for the second group of regressions all data were used except for the crisis years after the first year of the crisis. Conclusions. The fundamental provisions of the scientific investigation will enable domestic regional enterprises to apply the algorithm of forming the economic security assessment of the enterprise using the apparatus of mathematical modeling in Economics.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Currency crises – Models'

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