Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Crisis Complexity'
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Paraskevas, Alexandros. "Organisational crisis signal detection from a complexity thinking perspective." Thesis, Oxford Brookes University, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.515276.
Full textTemnikova, Irina. "Text complexity and text simplification in the crisis management domain." Thesis, University of Wolverhampton, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2436/297482.
Full textPopolo, Damian. "The science of crisis : modernity, complexity theory and the Kosovo." Thesis, Durham University, 2009. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/2045/.
Full textSpeakman, Mark Kevin. "Perspectives on destination crisis management in the UK and Mexico : conventional crisis models and complexity theory." Thesis, University of Central Lancashire, 2014. http://clok.uclan.ac.uk/11090/.
Full textRoukny, Tarik. "Financial Networks, Complexity and Systemic Risk." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/223913.
Full textDoctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur et technologie
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Azawi, Athil, and Pegah Hassani. "Crisis Consultants & the Vastly Changing Environment : A deductive study of the crisis consultant's perceptions & the effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-447375.
Full textPage, Geoff William. "Risks, needs and emotional rewards : complexity and crisis in the Drug Interventions Programme." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.608165.
Full textAmbrose, Kathleen L. "KEEPING IT ALL TOGETHER: THE CHALLENGE OF COMPLEXITY, REPUTATION, AND SUPPLY CHAIN CRISES." UKnowledge, 2018. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/comm_etds/68.
Full textSands, Daniel B. "Complexity Theory, Asymmetric Shock, and the Emergence of Previously Hidden Subsystems within the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/192958.
Full textFransson, Felicia, and Christoffer Lindskog. "Meningsskapande och meningsgivande inom komplexa krisgrupper : En fallstudie om meningsskapande och meningsgivande påverkan på den komplexa krisgruppen för översvämningarna i Mälaren år 2019." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Företagsekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-41657.
Full textSyfte: Syftet med studien är att skapa en ökad förståelse för komplexitetens påverkan på den meningsskapande och meningsgivande processen. Samt hur detta påverkar en krisgrupp bestående av flertalet myndigheter i en hantering av en naturkatastrof. Metod: För att besvara studiens frågeställningar har det empiriska materialet samlats in genom en kvalitativ metod, i form av sex semistrukturerade intervjuer. Då forskarna för denna studie har tillämpat en fallstudie grundar sig studien på översvämningskriserna i december 2019. Därmed genomfördes intervjuerna på respondenter som representerade olika myndigheter som samverkat i detta fall. Empiri och analys: Det underlag som använts till studiens analys är den teoretiska referensramen som omfattar litteratur om komplexitet, meningsskapande och meningsgivande. Slutsatser: De slutsatser som identifierades var att komplexa faktorer hade en påverkan på meningsskapande och meningsgivande processerna. Dessa huvudsakliga faktorer identifierades som: rutiner, tidigare erfarenheter, spetskompetenser, terminologier, uppdrag, mandat och hierarki. Dessa komplexa faktorer gör att meningsskapande och meningsgivande processerna skapar friktioner och möjligheter för krisgruppen.
Pilati, Anatércia Rovani. "Debate sobre a proteção do meio ambiente : da complexidade da noção de crise ecológica à importância da mediação ambiental no Brasil." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/130541.
Full textThis study aims to analyze the application possibility concerning the mediation procedure for ecological conflicts in order to promote the environment protection in Brazil. The study approaches the examination of the ecological crisis and the human changing posture in front of environmental matters. It parts from the historical review concerning the environmental protection legal affirmation process. The aim is to examine the development of environment legal protection in brazilian law, as well as to examine the social intention concerning the environment protection - as a fundamental right for quality of life. The analysis involves political ecology theories in order to analyze the political action on the current changes in the human condition in relation to nature. In this context, it built an analyses concerning the legal instruments for the environmental protection in Brazil. However the focus was also the extra-legal instruments: mediation. The research structure presents the mediation process as an alternative way for solving some environmental matters. The methodology applied is deductive method, begging from a literature review concerning legal regulation for environment in Brazil as well as legal regulations concerning mediation process. The research, therefore, is in harmony to the research lines of this Program.
Mortoza, Leticia Pelluci Duarte. "Antecipação de crises financeiras por meio de medidas de complexidade: evidências do Brasil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3139/tde-15012018-133022/.
Full textThe classical Economic Equilibrium has never been a reality, especially after the first financial markets crisis events. It is known nowadays that economies are far from their Equilibrium, they are seen more as a process under construction, not a static state; a stochastic instead of deterministic process, as it was thought before. Brazil is a young country, hence its economic and political systems are still maturing. In light of all the changes and crises it has been suffering in the recent history, this research seeks for an alternative mechanism to detect and anticipate these crisis events, in order to avoid massive financial losses. To this end, the LMC and SDL Complexity Measures are applied to the Dollar-Real exchange rates, Ibovespa and Brazilian CDS time series during crisis events. After detecting the main events, the idea is to \"turn back in time\", to the events\' inception, and analyse if, given the limited amount of information on that time, the crises could be detected on their early stages. Finally, this research concludes that both LMC and SDL Complexity Measures are robust in detecting volatility increases on the financial series, revealing good potential as crises early warning. However, no extensive calculus, large samples, or strong assumptions about the data probability distributions are needed to this aim. Therefore, these results represent the very first step towards a crises real time monitor.
Desbois, Jean-Marc. "F. A. Hayek et Herbert A. Simon : la contribution de deux approches par la complexité à l'élaboration d'un corps de connaissances et d'outils utiles dans l'analyse et la prévention des "poly-crises" alimentaires. L'exemple de la crise alimentaire de 2007-2008." Thesis, Paris 1, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA01E039/document.
Full textOver the April-June 2008 period, prices of the commodities such as wheat, maize, rice and vegetable oils, reached impressive yet not exceptional peaks. By contrast, the populations of 48 countries were stricken by severe under nutrition. Most of them had already been weakened not only by conflicts, social disorders, dramatic and unusual climatic and natural disasters, but also by outbreaks, epizooties, and population displacements. In some cases, all these factors together played a significant role in the worsening situation. However, another important reason could be advanced to explain why the 2008 food crisis was an “extraordinary problem”. This one is that “normal” scientific knowledge was defeated by the complexity of what it appears now as a food “poly-crises” (Morin, 2011). We answered by designing an epistemological, methodological, and technical knowledge base from two very different and alternative economics approaches of facing complexity. The first is the Hayekian approach (1899-1992), and the second, the Simonian approach (1916-2001). The research intends to fulfill cumulativity criteria, traditionally difficult to satisfy with the ones of complexity. From the following analysis we mostly learned two things. First, epistemological grounds of economics needed to be broken in complex environment(s): 1) from certainty/objectivity to uncertainty/subjectivity, 2) from accurate prediction to design, 3) from linear causality deemed inappropriate or, worse, threatening people freedoms, to complex causality. Second, in the adaptation process, the role of “tacit” knowledge production and sharing is central. For that reason, the core of economics problem is not allocation of resources anymore. Now, the main problem for humans whose cognitive capacity are “bounded” is to compute, to “socialize” (Nonaka et alii, 1994, 2001), available but dispersed information and knowledge and to converse them into heuristics or patterns allowing the adaptation to complex and uncertain environment(s). Two others auxiliary hypotheses –E. Ostrom (2011) will endorse them later- can be drawn from that preliminary work: 1) the dynamics of change rooted “in the thinking and in the creativity of people involved in complex situations and their capacity to restructure their own models for interactions”, 2) reciprocal altruism (Simon, 1992, 1993) is a rational behavior which can be more effective in/for the social interactions in complex environment(s) than maximizing or selfish behavior. To present preliminary results in an effective way, we created a very simple interface scheme. It takes the form of a three-dimensional knowledge loop with two strands, “generic” and “tacit” knowledge connected between themselves to produce by recursion a meta-knowledge. We made the choice of the interface because it reflects with the most accuracy the position defended by Hayek and Simon which is that economics is a frontier science. Moreover, the interface has the advantage of being both open and closed. A part of the research is more specifically dedicated to design tools increasing the understanding of the “polyfood” crises. We elaborated a three-level indicator with: 1) perceptions of the contribution of each factor to the outbreak and the worsening of the situation; 2) contributions of actors to the explanation of the food crisis proposed in 2008. It was developed from: 1) a case study comparing and contrasting explanations proposed a) in their statements by 138 Heads of State and Government attended the High Level Conference on World Food Security (3-5 June 2008), b) in their analyses by economists, c) in their testimonies by people hit by under nutrition/rising food prices (database IRIN); 2) a new and more updated typology focused on the responses addressed by 18 countries split into 3 groups [...]
Silva, Luiz Eduardo Prates da. "Fios para a rede - cotejando conceitos de John Wesley e Edgar Morin: contribuição à educação nas instituições educacionais metodistas no Brasil, hoje." Faculdades EST, 2010. http://tede.est.edu.br/tede/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=317.
Full textIn face of contemporary demands and struggling to survive against the commodification of education, confessional educational institutions, as is the case of the institutions related to the Methodist Church, seek to articulate into networks. This paper aims to highlight some specific points of John Wesleys and Edgar Morins thought, which may allow that such networks be linked not only to the administrative and financial aspects, but have at the same time, elements of reflection carrying a load of meaning, to be found at the confluence of 'tradition', that is, the theological vision of the father of the Methodist movement, with the contemporary vision, that is, the challenges posed to education today, from Edgar Morins paradigm of complexity viewpoint. These contributions are considered as threads weaving the fabric of the network, given that the complexus has as one of its connotations a tissue of heterogeneous constituents, inseparably bound. A net may also have other connotations, such as the "safety net", while for the fisherman, it is an instrument that ensures survival. The elements chosen as threads to weave this network are anthropology, soteriology, in the sense of social salvation, and the creation and 'new creation' in John Wesley. And still, aspects of anthropology, solidarity and the humanitys fate crisis, and education in Edgar Morin. The texture is shown based on a careful examination and comparison of these concepts/threads. Exemplifying and pointing to signs of hope, I describe some experiences and practices being used at the Methodist University of São Paulo, where we find similarities and possible connections with the material presented as the threads and the fabric of the network. I conclude this recovering and examining carefully points of the confluence between some aspects on the thoughts of the two authors as support of defense of what I consider the necessary education for the current historical moment, therefore, the one which I propose that should be developed by Methodist Educational Network.
JALE, Jader da Silva. "Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009." Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, 2015. http://www.tede2.ufrpe.br:8080/tede2/handle/tede2/6777.
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The growth of the world economy, driven by emerging countries, especially China, has generated signi cant changes in the commodities market since 2002. The commodity prices have shown a signi cant increase, reecting the erce conditions of supply and demand for these products, driven by the climatic phenomena that have negatively afected the supply, and by the demand growth rate. The global nancial crisis began in the US market, and eventually turned out the worst global nancial crisis since 1929 (the break of the New York Stock Exchange). The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 15, 2008 marks the transformation of the international nancial crisis, after which in Brazil there was a great reduction of international credit, accompanied by a sharp increase of the dollar exchange rate. Considering that the agricultural sector is of fundamental importance to the economic health, being a major investor in environmental and rural technologies, Brazil can not succumb to the idea of a slowdown in this sector, as in 2008 the Brazilian agribusiness represented 36.7% of exports, generating 37% of jobs, and 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This work investigates the returns asynchrony and the behavior of the cross-correlations for six agricultural Brazilian agribusiness commodities, for the period prior to the global nancial crisis (2006-2009), and after the crisis (2010-2014). The Cross-Sample Entropy method was used for quantifying the asynchrony among the commodity returns series. In addition, the methods Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) were used to investigate cross-correlations and auto correlations in the returns series. The results of multifractal analysis show that for all time series, the multifractality decreased after the global nancial crisis, indicating smaller range of the scale invariant fluctuations, except for Cotton, which exhibits precisely the opposite behavior. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that the multifractal analysis and the complexity analysis can be useful in the studies of the dynamics of the Brazilian agribusiness, given its importance within the global economic scenario, for adoption of monetary and scal policies by the responsible economic agents, or by the federal government.
O crescimento da economia mundial, impulsionado por países emergentes, principalmente a China, gerou mudanças relevantes no mercado de commodities a partir de 2002. Observou-se uma mudança nos preços das commodities, que mostraram uma elevação expressiva, mostrando condições acirradas entre oferta e demanda desses produtos, impulsionadas pela existência de problemas climáticos que afetaram negativamente a oferta e pelo ritmo de crescimento da demanda. A crise financeira mundial iniciou-se no mercado americano e acabou se tornando a pior crise financeira mundial desde 1929 (quebra da bolsa de Nova York). A falência do banco de investimento Lehman Brothers no dia 15 de setembro de 2008 marca a transformação da crise financeira internacional, e após isso, ocorre uma grande redução do crédito internacional e o dólar dispara no Brasil. Considerando que o setor agrícola é de fundamental importância para a sanidade econômica e por ser um grande investidor em tecnologias ambiental e rural, o Brasil não pode sucumbir a idéia uma desaceleração neste setor, pois o agronegócio brasileiro representou, em 2008, 36.7% das exportações brasileiras, geração de 37% dos empregos e 28% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Neste trabalho investigou-se a assincronia, a transferência de informação e o comportamento das correlações cruzadas dos retornos de seis commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro, para os períodos anteriores (2006-2009) e posteriores a crise financeira mundial (2010-2014). Utilizou-se o método Cross-Sample Entropy para quantificar a assincronia entre todas as séries de retornos das commodities. Utilizou-se os métodos Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) e Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) para investigar correlações cruzadas e auto correlações. Os resultados da análise multifractal mostram que para todas as séries temporais, a multifractalidade diminuiu após a crise financeira mundial, indicando menor variedade do tamanho das flutuações que apresentam invariância de escala, exceto o algodão, que apresentou comportamento contrário. Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se concluir que a análise multifractal e a análise de complexidade podem ser úteis nos estudos da dinâmica do agronegócio brasileiro, dada a sua importância, diante do cenário econômico mundial seja para adoção de políticas monetárias e fiscal dos órgãos responsáveis, agentes econômicos ou pelo governo federal.
Santos, Murillo Rodrigues dos. "A crise e a fragmentação da psicologia: uma visão do pensamento complexo." Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2016. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/6302.
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This study aims to present a view of Complex Thought about the themes of crisis and fragmentation of psychology as a science and profession. Therefore, we carried out a literature review of the important concepts of Complex Thought in regards to the relationship with the subject, specifically related to epistemology, ontology, method and methodology. After presented the theoretical framework and method that support this work, it elaborates on the results achieved through reflections raised by the collected bibliography. Thus, it carried out an interpretative analysis of the senses historically attributed to the concepts of "crisis" and "fragmentation", by building units of senses/analysis in order to propose a new reading possible for the subject, understanding the crisis and fragmentation not as diversity of theoretical positions or the difficulty of finding an unique position/object/language, but as the inability to recognize itself while a polysystemic and plural science.
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar uma visão do Pensamento Complexo sobre os temas da crise e fragmentação da psicologia enquanto ciência e profissão. Para tanto, realizou-se uma revisão bibliográfica dos conceitos importantes do Pensamento Complexo no que diz respeito à articulação com o tema, especificamente com relação à epistemologia, ontologia, método e metodologia. Depois de apresentado o referencial teórico e o método que embasam este trabalho, discorre-se sobre os resultados alcançados através de reflexões levantadas por meio do material bibliográfico coletado. Desta forma, realiza-se uma análise interpretativa dos sentidos historicamente atribuídos aos conceitos de “crise” e “fragmentação”, através da construção de unidades de sentido/análise, de modo a propor uma nova leitura possível para o tema, entendendo a crise e a fragmentação não mais como diversidade de posições teóricas ou a dificuldade de encontrar uma posição/objeto/linguagem unívoca, mas como a incapacidade de se reconhecer enquanto uma ciência polissistêmica e plural.
Andersson, Marcus. "Complexity and problem solving : A tale of two systems." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för psykologi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-150937.
Full textSyftet med den här uppsatsen är att undersöka om en ökande komplexitet på ett problem, innebär en skillnad för ett lärande system med två samverkande. De två samverkande delarna som används är från “Actor” och “Critic”, som kommer ifrån algoritmen “Actor-Critic”. som implementeras med hjälp av ramverket “Reinforcement learning”. Resultaten bekräftar att det inte verkar vara någon skillnad i relativ effektivitet mellan “Actor” och “Critic” när komplexiteten ändras mellan två problem. Detta kan bero på tekniska svårigheter att jämföra miljöerna i experimentet och algoritmerna som används. Om det finns problem med jämförelserna skulle skillnaden i komplexitet vara icke-uniform på ett obestämbart sätt, och att kunna göra jämförelser blir därför svårt. Däremot om skillnaden i komplexitet är uniform, skulle det kunna tyda på det kanske finns en skillnad i hur “Actor” och “Critic” hanterar olika typer av komplexitet. Vidare studier med kontrollerade ökningar för komplexiteten är nödvändiga för att fastställa hur “Actor-Crtic” algoritmen samverkar med skillnader i komplexitet. I diskussionen presenteras iden att använda Actor-Critic modellen för att förstå metoder för psykologiska behandlingar bättre.
Marques, Silvia Badim. "O direito ao acesso universal a medicamentos no Brasil: diálogos entre o direito , a política e a técnica médica." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/6/6135/tde-31102011-100650/.
Full textIntroduction. Since the enactment of the 1988 Federal Constitution in Brazil, that consolidates health as a social right, the citizens began to demand this right in court, lawfully driving the state to guarantee their health claims. And, in this sense, the number of actions that require medicines is growing exponentially in Brazil, which impact directly the public health policy, and stimulate discussions about the safety of drugs dispensed by the courts. Objective. Show how the technical and political issues, involving the social right to pharmaceutical assistance has been debated in legal proceedings whose objective is the solicitation of drugs against the State. This to be able to relate these findings to the current debates about the role of the judiciary, in view of the guaranteed of right to health and its impact on the public health policy. And, also, to the current political debates about health prescription, and its importance for the right in focus. Method. The research methodology is coated in two stages. The first step was the analysis of court cases that focused the drug demand against the State, from Four State Courts in Brazil: Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. The processes were analyzed through the use of qualitativequantitative methodology of collective discourse. The second step consisted in the search of scientific articles in major databases of scientific journals of public health, that were related to the following research question: How today\'s discussion is structured around the political health context of the medical prescription? Results. The analysis of court proceedings, results clear that the demands that involve medication in court have been deferred by the judges, primarily, based on the individual medical prescriptions, and based on the pure reading of the legal system, without considering the technical and political dimensions that involve the right to pharmaceutical assistance. The analysis of scientific articles shows us the extensive technical discussion about the prescription and its health implications, and highlights the need to contradict these documents, and invest in education and medical information, towards the safety of patients-citizens. Conclusion. The right to health is a complex right, which requires for its adequate protection and security, that we move beyond the positivist paradigm, with its exclusively normative reading and dogmatic rules, towards a new paradigm which allows greater penetration of issues and political and technical knowledge within the law. Both judicial and extrajudicial ways need to be created to protect health, involving all legal, politicians and technicians professionals involved in the matter, toward interdisciplinary construction of the right to health and health citizenship in Brazil
Lehmann, Kai Enno. "Using complexity theory to suggest a new framework to deal with crises in international politics." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.533994.
Full textDompieri, Mauricio. "Análise de complexidade aplicada à antecipação de crises no mercado de bens minerais." Universidade de São Paulo, 2014. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3134/tde-16112015-153204/.
Full textThis study aimed at investigating the opportunities for application of complexity analysis as a method of analysis of mineral commodities economics, using nickel as case study. With that intention, the particularities of commodities were studied, in a deeper fashion in the case of nickel, its influencing factors and respective models which have been developed for simulating, understanding and predicting the behavior of the commodity market system. The conditions which allow the mineral commodities market to be considered a complex system have been verified. In the case of nickel the current state of the extraction technology including the latest developments has also been analyzed. Then focus goes to the description of the method used in complexity analysis, where complexity of a system is defined as a measurable quantity based on its topology, represented by the structure of the correlation between its variables, and the total entropy of the system. The total entropy of the system is the integration of the Shannon entropy of the variables that participate in its structure and is a measure of the systems uncertainty, i.e., its departure from a deterministic operating fashion. Calculation of correlations between variables in this method is not done statistically, but by calculating the mutual entropy between each pair of variables. The advantage of this method is that it reveals correlations between pairs of variables that exhibit nonlinear relationships or even bifurcations, clustering and other pathologies of difficult statistical treatment. Thus, the term correlation is avoided, which refers to the statistical treatment, being coupling the preferred expression to identify the dependence between two variables. The two types of complexity analysis were then performed: static and dynamic. Static analysis reveals the system structure and strength of couplings between the components by means of a cognitive map, as well as the complexity indices consisting of critical complexity, operational and minimum entropy and robustness. Robustness is the most interesting index in this case, as it measures the resilience of the system using the difference between the critical and operative complexities, and is an indicator of its sustainability. The dynamic analysis reveals, for time variant systems, the evolution of complexity indicators over time. Interest in this type of analysis is that the methods developer has experimentally identified that the collapse of a system is almost always preceded by a sharp increase in their complexity. This feature is then exploited in the analysis of the nickel market in trying to anticipate crises. Then, in the experimental section, structures of couplings were identified for a basket of metals and for the specific nickel market, using static analysis. Finally the evolution of indicators of complexity over time has been investigated, which revealed to be possible to identify a crisis in the market by the increasing complexity and entropy and, in the particular case of the 2008-2009 crisis its been also was possible to observe a significant increase in complexity and entropy just before installation of the crisis itself, providing a pre-alarm of the event.
Durgan, Edward Lee. "Resistance and complexity : solutions to urban crises of homelessness and psychopathology through psychiatry, architecture and philosophy." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/45052.
Full textGaultier, Le Bris Sophie. "Improvisation vs (meta)règles : effets sur la fiabilité d'une organisation hautement fiable : le cas d'une équipe passerelle dans la Marine nationale." Thesis, Rennes 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014REN1G003/document.
Full textWhat are the best types of answers given by a 4-member team of the French Navy without expertise in unexpected situations under time pressure in order to maintain or to increase organizational reliability ? HRO researchers agree with Interactionists on the fact that human beings can be considered as a reliability factor. Nevertheless, they disagree on one point: the need to respect the rules or not in unexpected events. A first qualitative study completed by a quantitative one (based on 237 nautical situations), emphasize different types of risk situations, responsible for accidents. Thanks to this data, an experiment based on the behavioral observations of 96 bridge-teams is set up on the simulator of the French Naval Academy, which trains all future officers of the French Navy. The aim of this work is to test different proposals of variables using either improvisation or rules, with or without meta rules. Results show that firstly, thanks to meta rules, the level of reliability is higher in high level complex situations under time pressure and secondly, results underline the risk of an improvised action without guidelines
Santos, Ademar Alves dos. "Cyberbullying, mídia e educação à luz do pensamento complexo." Universidade Nove de Julho, 2017. http://bibliotecatede.uninove.br/handle/tede/1715.
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This thesis aims to study the phenomenon of cyberbullying in the virtual electronic media. As a multidimensional phenomenon, cyberbullying is closely linked to the exponential growth of information and communication technology. The aggressive, intimidating, systematic and recurring behaviors typify this kind of bullying, which was previously restricted to physical, school and non-school spaces, and today transcends into cyberspace. The analyses of this thesis are based on the complex thinking, proposed by Edgar Morin. Therefore, the study was developed in a qualitative approach. By examining cyberbullying in the cyberspace, this research is also characterized by the use of the ethnographic methodology. The data and information obtained were analyzed in the light of three categories of Morin’s thought: interactivity, complexity and simplification. This interpretative procedure was carried out according to the assumptions of the content analysis defined by Bardin (2010), taking as a universe of research, discourses that involve the cyberbullying phenomenon published by three major Brazilian newspapers and by three virtual communities on Facebook. The study showed that, in the contents of the newspapers and virtual communities analyzed, by promoting a fragmented and sensationalist approach to cyberbullying, these information vehicles promote the construction of a reductionist and therefore partial view of this phenomenon, disregarding its biological, social, cultural and psychological dimensions, elements that make up the totality of this social event.
Cette thèse a pour objet d'étude le phénomène cyberbullying dans les médias électroniques virtuels. Comme phénomène multidimensionnel, le cyberbullying est étroitement lié à la croissance exponentielle de la technologie de l'information et de la communication. Les comportements agressifs, intimidateurs, systématiques et récurrents, caractérisent ce type de bullying qui, auparavant limité aux espaces présentiels, scolaires et non scolaires, transcende aujourd'hui au cyberespace. Les analyses de cette thèse se reposent sur la pensée complexe proposée par Edgar Morin. Par conséquent, l'étude est développée dans une approche qualitative. Lors de l'étude du Cyberbullying, dans le cyberespace, cette recherche se caractérise également par l'utilisation de la méthodologie ethnographique. Les données et les informations obtenues ont été analysées au regard de trois catégories de pensée "moriniano": Interactivité, Complexité et Simplification. Cette procédure interprétative a été réalisée en accord avec les présupposés de l'analyse de contenu définis par Bardin (2010), prenant en compte des discours impliquant le phénomène cyberbullying publiés par trois grands journaux brésiliens et trois communautés virtuelles de Facebook. L'étude a démontré que, dans les contenus des journaux ou des communautés virtuelles analysés, en promouvant une approche fragmentée et sensationnaliste du Cyberbullying, ces véhicules d'information favorisent la construction d'une vision réductionniste et, donc partielle de ce phénomène, sans tenir compte des dimensions biologiques, sociales, culturelles et psychologiques, éléments qui composent tout cet événement social.
Esta tesis tiene como objeto de estudio al fenómeno de acoso virtual (cyberbullying), en los medios electrónicos virtuales. Como fenómeno multidimensional el acoso cibernético (cyberbullying), está estrechamente vinculado con el crecimiento exponencial de las tecnologías de la información y de la comunicación. El comportamiento agresivo y la intimidación sistemática y recurrente, tipifican este tipo de agresión que anteriormente se encontraba restringida a los espacios del aula, escolares o no, que hoy trasciende al ciberespacio. Los análisis de esta tesis se fundamentan em el pensamiento complejo propuesto por Edgar Morin. Por tanto, el estudio se desarrolló mediante un enfoque cualitativo. Al examinar el acoso cibernético en el ciberespacio, esta investigación también se caracteriza por el uso de la metodología etnográfica. Los datos e informaciones obtenidas fueron analizados sobre la óptica de tres categorías del pensamento moriniano: la interactividad, la complejidad y la simplificación. Ese procedimiento interpretativo se realizo de acuerdo con las condiciones definidas por Bardin (2010), tomando como universo de investigación discursos que incluyen al fenómeno del cyberbullying publicados por tres grandes revistas brasileñas y por tres comunidades virtuales del Facebook. El estudio demostro que en los contenidos de las revistas y comunidades virtuales analizadas, al promover un abordaje fragmentado y sensacionalista del acoso cibernético esos vehículos de información promueven la construcción de una visión reducionista y por tanto parcial de ese fenómeno, sin considerar sus dimensiones biológicas, sociales, culturales y psicológicas, elementos que componen la totalidade de ese evento social.
Esta tese tem como objeto de estudo o fenômeno cyberbullying na mídia eletrônica virtual. Enquanto fenômeno multidimensional, o cyberbullying está intimamente ligado ao crescimento exponencial da tecnologia da informação e da comunicação. Os comportamentos agressivos, intimidatórios, sistemáticos e recorrentes tipificam esse tipo de bullying, que, antes, restrito aos espaços presenciais, escolares e não escolares, transcende, hoje, para o ciberespaço. As análises desta tese fundamentam-se no pensamento complexo, proposto por Edgar Morin. Para tanto, o estudo desenvolveu-se numa abordagem qualitativa. Ao examinar o cyberbullying, no ciberespaço, esta pesquisa caracteriza-se também pelo uso da metodologia etnográfica. Os dados e informações obtidos foram analisados à luz de três categorias do pensamento moriniano: interatividade, complexidade e simplificação. Esse procedimento interpretativo realizou-se de acordo com os pressupostos da análise de conteúdo definidos por Bardin (2010), tomando como universo de investigação discursos que envolvem o fenômeno cyberbullying publicados por três grandes jornais brasileiros e por três comunidades virtuais do Facebook. O estudo demonstrou que, nos conteúdos dos jornais e comunidades virtuais analisados, ao promover uma abordagem fragmentada e sensacionalista do cyberbullying, esses veículos de informação promovem a construção de uma visão reducionista e, portanto, parcial desse fenômeno, desconsiderando suas dimensões biológicas, sociais, culturais e psicológicas, elementos que compõem a totalidade desse evento social.
Viegas, Eduardo. "A complexity evolutionary theory for the emergence of financial and economic crises : synchronising Gould and Minsky through von Neumann and Mandelbrot." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/44548.
Full textBakkar, Yassine. "Systemic risk, bank charter value, capital structure and international complexity : evidence from developed countries." Thesis, Limoges, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LIMO0002/document.
Full textThe aim of this thesis is to contribute on the current debate on the systemic risk and its policy implications for the implementation of new (systemic risk-based) capital requirements in the banking industry. We extend the existing literature in many aspects. In the first chapter, we investigate how bank charter value affects risk for a sample of OECD banks by using standalone and systemic risk measures before, during, and after the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. We revisit the self‐discipline role of charter value on bank’s risk-taking and systemic risk prior, during and after the crisis. We show that bank charter value is positively associated with risk-taking and systemic risk for very large “too-big-too-fail” banks and large U.S. and European banks prior to the crisis, but such a relationship is inverted during and after the crisis. Then, we deepen investigation on this relation between charter value and risk-taking and systemic risk prior to the crisis, regarding differences in risk taking cultures, bank size and bank strategies. The second chapter analyzes the dynamics of banks’ capital structure towards their desired and/or imposed capital level. It analyzes several interesting features. (i) whether or not market frictions and capital adjustment costs are larger for regulatory capital ratios vis-à-vis a plain leverage ratio. (ii) which adjustment channels banks use to adjust their capital ratio. (iii) how the speed of adjustment and adjustment channels differ between large, systemic and complex banks versus small banks. Findings suggest that banks are more flexible and faster in adjusting to their leverage capital ratio than to regulatory capital ratios. Whereas, systemically important banks are slower than other banks in adjusting to their target leverage ratio but quicker in reaching their target regulatory ratios. Further explores show that SIFIs might be more reluctant to change their capital base by either issuing or repurchasing equity and prefer sharper downsizing or faster expansion. In the third chapter, we analyze how the international organization structure and the geographic expansion, of 105 European listed banks that have foreign affiliates around the world, could affect bank level measures of systemic risk during the 2005–2013 period. We also investigate how the peak of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the height of the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010–2011 might have affected such relationships. We find that internationalization and foreign complexity are important drivers of bank systemic risk, particularly during the 2008–2013 financial stress years
Mossberg, Schüllerqvist Ingrid. "Läsa texten eller "verkligheten" : Tolkningsgemenskaper på en litteraturdidaktisk bro." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm University, Department of Didactic Science and Early Childhood Education, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-7515.
Full textThe dissertation Reading Texts or ”Reality” investigate teachers use of interpretive communities in teaching literature in secondary school. It discusses how different learning outcomes generates from three interpretory frames for reading. Teachers can be looked upon as critics when they show unexperienced readers why and how they read an interprete literary texts. In their teaching,they don´t relate only to their students but also to thier own conception of subject matter and to a broader discourse in society that deals with questions of why and how we read literature. Following voices of the discourse are included in the study: eight teachers, curriculum texts, a journal for the profession and a journal för scholors.
Teachers combine several aims in their teaching of literature. They use literature to discuss life, gender and problems related to young people, text as faction. But, they also try to teach their students about narrathology and how to understand and interpretate fictional texts, text as fiction and a world of signs. The curriculum, however, means that literature is read only to gain knowledge about the world,oneself and other people. A contradiction is that one of the criterias for assement includes knowledge of texts and methodology from the academic subject. One of the other voices in the discourse, a journal for scholors, talk about the literary texts but very seldom about teaching the texts. Another voice, a journal for teachers in Swedish, follows the curriculum closely and discusses reading literature as a way to get knowledge of the world.
Research in subject matter didactics can investigate teaching, relate different aims to different outcomes and show possibilities for teaching literature and reading comprehension. If we choose only one interpretive community, we get one kind of reading comprehension.If we combine two in a complex teaching strategy, we extend learning and reading comprehension of our students.
Kamissoko, Daouda. "Decision support for infrastructure network vulnerability assessment in natural disaster crisis situations." Thesis, 2013. http://oatao.univ-toulouse.fr/11005/1/kamissoko.pdf.
Full textCame, Timothy Paul. "Complexity and crisis : an analysis of cognitive performance under stress in the case of George W. Bush." Thesis, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/17864.
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Political Science, Department of
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Sousa, Maria Patrícia Brilhante de. "Comunicação, crise e liderança : uma investigação sob o prisma da complexidade sobre comunicação e liderança em contexto de crise organizacional." Master's thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/20026.
Full textThis research, from an epistemological complexional perspective, has the purpose of analyzing how communicational behaviors of leadership can be characterized in a crisis context. The research main question is: in an organizational crisis context, and in a leadership perspective, how can the communication behaviors be characterized regarding the leader performance in the organization and within the stakeholders? To answer this question, it was adopted the so-called paradigm of complexity and it was chosen the company TAP, using a qualitative method. Moreover, it will be done a media performance analysis of the several existing leaders during the company pilots’ strike between the 1st and the 10th of May, based on the news from the “Diário de Notícias”, the “Observador” and the “Público”. From the results of this interpretive research, it was possible to conclude that the communicational behaviors of leaders are mainly characterized for expressing a tendency for disorder and disorganization, which may have to do with the problematic situation that TAP faces.
Bandarabadi, Mojtaba. "Low-complexity measures for epileptic seizure prediction and early detection based on classification." Doctoral thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10316/27608.
Full textThis thesis concerns the problems of epileptic seizure prediction and detection. We analyzed multichannel intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) and surface electroencephalogram (sEEG) recordings of patients suffering from refractory epilepsy, to access the brain state in real time by using relevant EEG features and computational intelligence techniques, and aiming for detection of pre-seizure state (in the case of prediction) or seizure onset times (in the case of detection). Our main original contribution is the development of a novel relative bivariate spectral power feature to track gradual transient changes prior to ictal events for real-time seizure prediction. Furthermore a novel robust and generalized measure for early seizure detection is developed, aimed to be used in closed-loop neurostimulation systems. The development of a general platform embeddable on a transportable low-power-budget device is of utmost importance, for real time warning to patients and their relatives about the impending seizure or beginning of an occurring seizure. The portable device can also be integrated to work in conjunction with a closed-loop neurostimulation or fast-acting drug injection mechanism to eventually disarm the impending seizure or to suppress the just-occurring seizure. Therefore, in this thesis we try to meet the dual-objective of developing algorithms for seizure prediction and early seizure detection that provide high sensitivity and low number of false alarms, fulfilling the requirements of clinical applications, while being low computational cost. To seek the first objective, a patient-specific seizure prediction was developed based on the extraction of novel relative bivariate spectral power features, which were then preprocessed, dimensionally reduced, and classified using a machine-learning algorithm. The introduced feature bears low complexity, and was discriminated using the powerful support vector machine (SVM) classifier. We analyzed the preictal EEG dynamics across different brain regions and throughout several frequency bands, using relative bivariate features to uncover the underlying mechanisms ending in epileptic seizures. The suggested prediction system was evaluated on long-term continuous sEEG and iEEG recordings of 24 patients, and produced statistically significant results with average sensitivity of 75.8% and false prediction rate of 0.1 per hour. Furthermore a novel statistical method was developed for proper selection of preictal period, and also for the evaluation of predictive capability of features, as well as for the predictability of seizures. The method uses amplitude distribution histograms (ADHs) of the features extracted from the preictal and interictal iEEG and sEEG recordings, and then calculates a criterion of discriminability among two classes. The method was evaluated on spectral power features extracted from monopolar and bipolar iEEG and sEEG recordings of 18 patients, in overall consisting of 94 epileptic seizures. To approach the objective of early seizure detection, we have formulated power spectral density (PSD) of bipolar EEG signal in the form of a measure of neuronal potential similarity (NPS) between two EEG signals. This measure encompasses the phase and amplitude similarities of two EEG channels in a simultaneous fashion. The NPS measure was then studied in several narrow frequency bands to find out the most relevant sub-bands involved in seizure initiations, and the best performing ratio of two NPS measures for seizure onset detection was determined. Evaluating on long-term continuous iEEG recordings of 11 patients with refractory partial epilepsy (overall of 1785 h and 183 seizures) the results showed high performance, while requiring a very low computational cost. On average, we could achieve a sensitivity of 86.3%, a low false detection rate (FDR) of 0.048/h, and a mean detection latency of 14.2s from electrographic seizure onsets, while in average preceding clinical onsets by 1.1s. Apart from the above mentioned primary objectives, we introduced two new and robust methods for offline or real-time labelling of epileptic seizures in long-term continuous EEG recordings for further studies. Methods include mean phase coherence estimated from bandpass filtered iEEG signals in specific frequency bands, and singular value decomposition (SVD) of bipolar iEEG signals. Both methods were evaluated on the same dataset employed in the previous study and demonstrated sensitivity of 84.2% and FDR of 0.09/h for sub-band mean phase coherence, and sensitivity of 84.1% and FDR of 0.05/h for bipolar SVD, on average. Most of this work was established in collaboration with the EPILEPSIAE project, aimed to predict of pharmacoresistant epileptic seizures. The developed methods in this thesis were evaluated by the accessibility of long-term continuous multichannel EEG recordings of more than 275 patients with refractory epilepsy, referred to as The European Epilepsy Database. This database was collected by the three clinical centers involved in EPILEPSIAE, and contains well-documented metadata. The results of this thesis are backing the hypothesis of the predictability of most of epileptic seizures using linear bivariate spectral-temporal brain dynamics. Moreover, the promising results of early seizure detection sustain the feasibility of integrating the proposed method with closed-loop neurostimulation systems. We hope the developed methods could be a step forward towards the clinical applications of seizure prediction and onset detection algorithms.
Esta tese versa os problemas de predição e de deteção de crises epiléticas. Analisa-se o eletroencefalograma multicanal intracraniano (iEEG) e de superfície (sEEG) de pacientes que sofrem de epilepsia refratária, para a estimação em tempo real do estado cerebral, usando características relevantes do EEG e técnicas de inteligência computacional, ambicionando a deteção do estado pré-ictal (no caso de previsão) ou dos instantes de início de uma crise (no caso de deteção). A principal contribuição original é o desenvolvimento de uma característica de potência espectral bivariada relativa para captar as mudanças transitórias graduais que levam a crises e que poderão ser usadas para previsão em tempo real. Além disso, é desenvolvida uma nova medida, robusta e generalizada para a deteção precoce, destinada a ser utilizada em sistemas de neuro estimulação em malha fechada. O desenvolvimento de uma plataforma geral possível de ser integrada num dispositivo transportável, energeticamente económico, é de grande relevância para o aviso em tempo real do doente e dos seus próximos sobre a eminência da ocorrência de uma crise. O dispositivo transportável também pode ser usado em malha fechada com um neuro estimulador ou com um dispositivo de injeção rápida de um fármaco que desarme eventualmente a crise em curso. Por isso nesta tese persegue-se o objectivo de desenvolver algoritmos para previsão mas também para deteção de crises. Em ambos os casos, pretende-se que os algoritmos tenham uma elevada sensibilidade e uma baixa taxa de falsos positivos, tornando viável a sua utilização clínica. Para o objectivo de previsão, desenvolveu-se um método de previsão personalizado baseado na extração de uma característica nova, denominada de potência relativa espectral bivariada, que foi submetida a pre-processamento, redução de dimensão e classificação com Máquinas de Vetores de Suporte (SVM). Esta nova característica, de baixa complexidade, é computacionalmente simples, mas permite a análise da dinâmica do EEG preictal em diferentes regiões do cérebro e ao longo de várias bandas de frequência, de modo a descobrir os mecanismos subjacentes às crises epiléticas. O sistema de previsão obtido foi avaliado em registos contínuos de sEEG e iEEG de 24 pacientes, e produziu resultados estatisticamente significativos com sensibilidade média de 75.8% e taxa de predição falsa de 0.1 por hora. Além disso, foi desenvolvido um novo método estatístico para a seleção apropriada do período preictal, e também para a avaliação da capacidade preditiva das características, assim como para a própria previsibilidade das crises. O método utiliza os histogramas de distribuição de amplitude (ADHS) das características extraídas nos períodos pré-ictal e ictal dos registos de iEEG e sEEG e, em seguida, calcula um critério de discriminabilidade entre as duas classes. O método foi avaliado nas características de potencia espectral extraídas de registos iEEG e sEEG, monopolares e bipolares de 18 pacientes, consistindo num número total de crises epilépticas de 94. O segundo objetivo, a deteção precoce de crises, foi abordado através da formulação da densidade de potência espectral (PSD) de canais de EEG bipolares na forma de uma medida da similaridade do potencial neuronal (NPS) entre dois sinais de EEG. Esta medida usa as similaridades entre as fases e as amplitudes de dois canais de EEG de um modo simultâneo. A medida NPS foi estudada em várias bandas estreitas de frequência de modo a descobrir-se quais as sub-bandas mais envolvidas na inicialização das crises; buscou-se assim a melhor razão entre duas NPS do ponto de vista da deteção precoce. Avaliadas em iEEG contínuos de longa duração de 11 doentes com epilepsia refratária parcial (num total de 1785 h e 183 crises), os resultados apresentam um desempenho com sensibilidade de 86.3% e taxa de deteção falsa (FDR) de 0.048/h, uma latência de 14.2s em relação ao início eletrográfico, sendo uma crise detetada em média 1.1s antes da sua manifestação clínica. Para além dos objetivos principais referidos acima, introduziram-se dois novos métodos, robustos, para etiquetagem em diferido e em tempo real das crises em registos contínuos de EEG de longa duração para estudos posteriores. Esses métodos incluem a coerência de fase média (mean phase coherence) estimada a partir de registos iEEG em bandas de frequência específicas (usando filtros passa-banda), e a decomposição em valores singulares (SVD) de sinais iEEG bipolares. Ambos os métodos foram avaliados no mesmo conjunto de dados do estudo anterior e apresentaram, em média, uma sensibilidade de 84.2% e um FDR de 0.09/h para a coerência de fase média calculada para as sub-bandas, e sensibilidade de 84.1% e FDR de 0.05/h para a metodologia que usa a decomposição SVD bipolar. Grande parte deste trabalho foi feito no âmbito do projeto EPILEPSIAE, visando a previsão de crises em doentes epiléticos fármaco-resistentes. Os métodos desenvolvidos nesta tese aproveitaram a acessibilidade aos dados bem documentados de mais de 275 pacientes que constituem a Base de Dados Europeia de Epilepsia (European Epilepsy Database), provenientes dos três centros hospitalares participantes no projeto. Os resultados desta tese apoiam a hipótese da previsibilidade da maioria das crises epiléticas usando dinâmicas cerebrais bivariadas lineares espetrais e temporais. Além disso os resultados são promissores relativamente à deteção precoce de crises e sustentam a fazibilidade da integração desses métodos com técnicas de neuroestimulação em malha fechada. Esperamos que os métodos desenvolvidos resultem num avanço no que respeita à aplicação clínica de algoritmos de previsão e deteção de crises.
FCT - SFRH/BD/71497/2010
Mamvura, Douglas. "A comparative study of how banks responded to a turbulent and chaotic environment in Zimbabwe, 2000 – 2008." Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/19167.
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Berze, Ottilia E. "Assessing foresight to advance management of complex global problems." Thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1828/10713.
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Lapaige, Véronique. "La santé publique globalisée." Thèse, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/6670.
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